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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Sunday morning edition and

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Speaker 2: the dal Juice Podcast.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Perolt.

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Speaker 2: You guys can follow me on Twitter at Sports talk About,

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Speaker 2: follow betting pros on Twitter at Betting Pros andfl We're

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Speaker 2: here for video with YouTube every single day and where

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Speaker 2: every gear you audio podcast bet mgm. The offer you

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Speaker 2: All right, so Saturday was kind of an up and

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Speaker 2: down blah every day. So we went one and two

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Speaker 2: on the picks for the pod, and then I added

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Speaker 2: like a million picks in a million plays. I end

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Speaker 2: with even money when in the zapeda fight getting a

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Speaker 2: knockout or Vargas, that was nice.

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Speaker 1: So I got that to end the day.

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Speaker 2: We had some ads where I had a UFC three

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Speaker 2: fight parlay that hit which was nice, but NBA basketballho

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Speaker 2: and two baseball oh and one, you know, just.

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Speaker 1: Kind of a in all.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I kind of went crazy yesterday, So I

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Speaker 2: know I was down. Officially, I'm down. I think I'm

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Speaker 2: down almost two units officially, but I think personally not bad.

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Speaker 2: Got the North Carolina over, which was nice to get that.

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Speaker 1: I had a full.

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Speaker 2: Unit on that, and a couple other things that were

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Speaker 2: kicking around that were okay. Didn't get the plus three

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Speaker 2: and a half or the money line for UNC, but

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Speaker 2: those are smaller bets that I had on that. So overall,

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Speaker 2: I think pretty much a flat day personally, down for

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Speaker 2: the podcast. But let's get to Sunday. Forget about Saturday.

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Speaker 2: Let's move on to Sunday. Okay, So already given you, guys,

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Speaker 2: Cincinnati minus ten. Okay, already gave you that. Now got

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Speaker 2: three more plays to give you, guys. Here's the interesting

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Speaker 2: thing for tomorrow, Dan Harrison. I will do the live

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Speaker 2: stream like we always do at eight am Pacific eleven

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Speaker 2: am Eastern off of the YouTube channel for betting pros.

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Speaker 2: Go search betting pros, go follow and subscribe to our

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Speaker 2: YouTube channel.

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Speaker 1: Please.

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Speaker 2: So we've got a six and one mark for the

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Speaker 2: Wong teaser six and one. There may not be a

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Speaker 2: bet that qualifies for the Wong teaser this week, which

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Speaker 2: is kind of crazy.

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Speaker 1: Now we'll have a teaser, but it may not be

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Speaker 1: a Wong teaser.

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Speaker 2: Now, remember there's very specific types of parameters the forty

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Speaker 2: nine and teasing home favorites up and teasing home dogs

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Speaker 2: up and teasing road favorites down.

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Speaker 1: We can't right now.

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Speaker 2: The only game that is qualifying right now is the

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Speaker 2: Lions at plus three and a half at home, and

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Speaker 2: even that, technically it's supposed to be two and a

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Speaker 2: half for it to qualify for a Wong teaser. So

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Speaker 2: even technically there that three and a half doesn't even qualify.

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Speaker 2: So I don't know if we're going to have an

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Speaker 2: official Wong teaser. We'll have a teaser tomorrow or this morning,

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Speaker 2: but I don't know if we're have a Wong teaser still,

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Speaker 2: just heads up six and one mark on that. I

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Speaker 2: know you guys tune into the live stream to hear that,

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Speaker 2: but I don't know if we're gonna have that coming

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Speaker 2: up here this morning. So just to fyi on the

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Speaker 2: Wong teaser may just be an official teaser. I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: tease the Lions. Okay, we're taking three and a half

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Speaker 2: in the contest for the circum million, both teams taking

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Speaker 2: the Lions at plus three and a half. I will

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Speaker 2: tease that up. I will go up to I don't

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Speaker 2: know what front up to nine and a half. But

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Speaker 2: the other leg I don't really know as of yet.

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Speaker 2: Right now, it's the Patriots Patriots four and a half.

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Speaker 2: You'll hear more about that coming up here in just

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Speaker 2: one second, but I would tease the Patriots up from

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Speaker 2: four and a half to ten and a half. Patriots

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Speaker 2: Lions two leg teaser is probably where I'm gonna go here,

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Speaker 2: but I don't know yet. I gotta kind of work

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Speaker 2: things out a little bit. Okay, So let's get to

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Speaker 2: the picks here today. Okay, so we already have one

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Speaker 2: one unit Cincinnati minus ten. We'll have the have the

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Speaker 2: teaser coming in here as well, so that'll be two units,

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Speaker 2: three more picks to give you guys here today. Let's

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Speaker 2: start with the Titans at Indianapolis. I like Indie minus

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Speaker 2: two and a half here in the contests. Okay, we

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Speaker 2: both teams have taken the Colts here for the circum million.

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Speaker 1: I like that play. I like the over better.

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Speaker 2: Fifty and a half is the total for Tennessee at Indianapolis.

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Speaker 1: Shop around some fifty one fifte and a half.

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Speaker 2: So we've got a four and three mark for Tennessee

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Speaker 2: to the over, four and three mark to the over

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Speaker 2: for Indy Okay, Indy. Last game against San Francisco thirty

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Speaker 2: to eighteen, the final that goes the over goes over

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Speaker 2: by six and a half. Game against Kansas City, the

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Speaker 2: twenty seven to three win for the Titans. That game

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Speaker 2: went under by twenty nine points. But before that, the

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Speaker 2: three games they played against the Jets, Jagged, and Bills

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Speaker 2: all went over by eleven and a half, seven and

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Speaker 2: a half, and six and a half. The game against

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Speaker 2: the Colts the last time these two teams played twenty

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Speaker 2: five to sixteen the game at Tennessee. That game went

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Speaker 2: under by just six points, just barely. So we've got

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Speaker 2: a team where three of the last four games have

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Speaker 2: gone over for Indianapolis and three of the last four

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Speaker 2: games have gone over for Tennessee, and the number has

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Speaker 2: stayed pretty much between forty seven and fifty four somewhere

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Speaker 2: in there. This total is right smack in the middle.

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Speaker 2: I think at home, Carson Wentz in this offense, they

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Speaker 2: figure something out last week against the San Francisco forty

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Speaker 2: nine ers, and I think has a lot to do

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Speaker 2: with Jonathan Taylor his ability to run the football here.

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Speaker 2: So I think this Colts team at home, this is

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Speaker 2: basically this season for them.

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Speaker 1: They have got to win this game.

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Speaker 2: I like backing teams that are desperate, and look, Indy's

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Speaker 2: desperate that they have to win this game against the Titans.

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Speaker 2: So the Titans could pretty much like go and run

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Speaker 2: away with this, and all of a sudden, you're like,

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Speaker 2: oh right, the Titans are already a playoff team. So

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Speaker 2: this is a big game in the AFC South coming

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Speaker 2: up here today. Titans are five and two. Colts would

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Speaker 2: fall to three and five. If they lose this, they'll

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Speaker 2: be three games behind Tennessee already and they will have

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Speaker 2: lost both games to the Titans.

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Speaker 1: So huge game here.

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Speaker 2: When it comes to offense, that's where I'm looking at

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Speaker 2: this Indie defense. They're giving up about twenty one twenty

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Speaker 2: two points a game. Tennessee's defense is not good and

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Speaker 2: their secondary is not good, going up twenty three point

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Speaker 2: four points per game, But giving up six yards of play.

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Speaker 1: I mean that's not good.

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Speaker 2: Given up four point five yards per rush, that's twenty

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Speaker 2: fifth in the NFL. Give up seven point two yards

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Speaker 2: per pass play, that's twenty first. I don't like this

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Speaker 2: Titans defense, but I like the Titans offense.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: Titans offense twenty seven point six points per game. They're

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Speaker 2: five point six yards per play. They're running four point

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Speaker 2: eight yards per play. That's top five, that's top ten.

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Speaker 1: In the NFL.

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Speaker 2: They're running the ball thirty two times per game, that's

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Speaker 2: first in the NFL, as you'd expect with Derek Henry

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Speaker 2: being the running back. And then you've got a Colts

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Speaker 2: defense it's okay against a run, not great. Four point

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Speaker 2: two yards per rush and twenty six point seven rush

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Speaker 2: is per game.

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Speaker 1: Give it one hundred and eleven yards in the ground

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Speaker 1: per game.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you could say that Henry's gonna have a

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Speaker 2: big game running the ball, and on the other end,

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Speaker 2: I think so will the.

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Speaker 1: Colts throwing the football.

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Speaker 2: I think we got offense over fifteen and a half

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Speaker 2: Tennessee and Indianapolis on the road at Indie, Tennessee going

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Speaker 2: over fifteen and a half for one unit all right

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Speaker 2: second play Patriots at the Chargers. All right, before you go, Matt,

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Speaker 2: you're going with your team. Let me explain why. All right,

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Speaker 2: four and a half numbers five's coming down. I took

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Speaker 2: four and a half tonight Patriots plus four and a half.

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Speaker 2: Last year, the Patriots won forty five nothing at the Chargers,

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Speaker 2: same place. Now, it was Cam Newton, okay, but what

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Speaker 2: the Patriots did last year? Cam Newton threw for a

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Speaker 2: grand total of sixty nine.

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Speaker 1: Yards in the game. Cam got hurt in this game too.

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Speaker 2: Jared Didham came in and threw for sixty one yards

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Speaker 2: in one touchdown in relief of Cam, after you got hurt.

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Speaker 2: But Patriots won the game forty five nothing. Actually, I

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Speaker 2: don't think Cam got hurt. Actually no, I think it

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Speaker 2: was a blowout. I think he just came in during

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Speaker 2: a blowout. Patriots were up twenty eight nothing at the break.

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Speaker 2: They wound up winning forty five nothing. They scored a

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Speaker 2: special team's touchdown. But Damien Harris ran the ball sixteen

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Speaker 2: times for eighty yards, had a five yard per carried

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Speaker 2: clip Cam Newton fourteen carries for forty eight yards in

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Speaker 2: two touchdowns, both in the red zone. They had going

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Speaker 2: to one catch one touchdown for him. Tony Michelle had

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Speaker 2: a catch in this game. Nikhil Harry had two catches

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Speaker 2: in this game.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: On the other side, Justin Herbert twenty six of fifty

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Speaker 2: three for two hundred and nine yards and two interceptions.

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Speaker 1: Now he's not a rookie anymore.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I'll give you that. He's now a second year pro.

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Speaker 2: But Austin Eckler eight carries thirty six yards.

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Speaker 1: That's it.

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Speaker 2: And now aust Neckler's got a hip injury out of

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Speaker 2: practice Thursday and Friday.

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Speaker 1: And if that guy's not available for the Chargers. Uh oh.

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Speaker 2: The Patriots run the ball really well this year. That's

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Speaker 2: without Cam Newton. Okay, Patriots are averaging four yards per rush.

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Speaker 2: That's only twenty second best in the league.

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Speaker 1: I get it.

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Speaker 2: But the Chargers are last. They have the worst rushing

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Speaker 2: defense in the NFL five point four yards per carry,

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Speaker 2: all right, one hundred and sixty two point five yards

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Speaker 2: per rush, give it up, okay, sorry, per game, rather

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Speaker 2: on the ground last in the NFL. People are sleeping

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Speaker 2: on this. They're all enamored with Oh my god, Justin Herbert.

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Speaker 2: Their defense is bad. It's Okay, against the pass, it's

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Speaker 2: pretty good against best six point five yards per pass play.

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Speaker 1: But what are the Patriots gonna do?

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Speaker 2: You think the Patriots are gonna go and go, oh hey, Mac,

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Speaker 2: you know what, man, go ahead, You're gonna throw the

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Speaker 2: ball forty times?

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Speaker 1: No, this is Belichick here.

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Speaker 2: I know Brandon Staley's a very good coach, defensive minding coach,

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Speaker 2: but he has to fix the rush defense because the

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Speaker 2: rush defense is bad.

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Speaker 1: And what do the Patriots want to do? Run the ball?

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Speaker 2: I expect this to be a lower scoring game than

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Speaker 2: people think. I don't hate to play on the under,

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Speaker 2: but I got four and a half points here. I

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Speaker 2: think the Patriots run the ball. They grind it. I

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Speaker 2: think Mac Jones could outplay Justin Herbert here. Okay, I'm

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Speaker 2: not talking about him throwing for three hundred yards, but

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Speaker 2: just being consistent dinking and dunking Patriots right now. I

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Speaker 2: mean offensively, they're completing sixty two percent of their pass plays.

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Speaker 2: That's better than what well the Chargers are completing sixty

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Speaker 2: four percent of their pass plays. The big play is

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Speaker 2: the big concern, right the deep ball Patriots secondary that's

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Speaker 2: the big concern. But if you don't have Bustin Eckler,

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Speaker 2: and you've become one dimensional. Patriots pass rush can pin

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Speaker 2: their ears back and go after Justin Herbert. That's not

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Speaker 2: good news, all right, that's not good news here if

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Speaker 2: you are a Chargers fan. Not saying the Patriots are

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Speaker 2: gonna dominate, but they have dominated. Patriots in their last

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Speaker 2: seventeen meetings are fourteen and three against the Chargers, twelve

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Speaker 2: and four against the spread. And you may go, Matt,

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Speaker 2: that's Tom Brady. Sure, but last year was Cam Newton.

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Speaker 2: Last year wasn't Tom Brady. Last year was Cam Newton.

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Speaker 2: And the most lopsided victory for the Patriots was forty

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Speaker 2: five nothing by Cam Newton. You want to come back

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Speaker 2: to the playoffs in twenty nineteen, Patriots won the game

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Speaker 2: forty one twenty eight, just blasted the Chargers in the

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Speaker 2: playoff game at Gilette. Time before that, Patriots played and

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Speaker 2: back on the say on October twenty ninth or twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 2: twenty one thirteen. You can say, Matt, these games are

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Speaker 2: all long time ago. I get it, But what about

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Speaker 2: last year?

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Speaker 1: Like, what do you make it? Last year?

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Speaker 2: And this Chargers defense does not stop the run. Load

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Speaker 2: up on Damien Harris prop bets. Okay, I'm gonna be

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Speaker 2: on Damien Harrins props Dan Harris and I will go

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Speaker 2: over this, but we'll see where his projectings are for

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Speaker 2: Damien Harris. But I expect a big running attack for

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Speaker 2: the Patriots coming up here today.

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Speaker 1: They may lose the game.

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Speaker 2: If they lose it, they lose it by three Patriots

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Speaker 2: plus four and a half for one unit and then

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Speaker 2: one more play. We're going to Tampa and New Orleans

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Speaker 2: lines four and a half for the Tampa Bay Bucks.

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Speaker 2: This number has been creeping up over the last couple

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Speaker 2: It was five, then four, now back up to four

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Speaker 2: to four.

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Speaker 1: And a half.

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Speaker 2: Huge game for the New Orleans Saints here, who are

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Speaker 2: four and two. They want to get down with the Buccaneers.

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Speaker 2: They got to win this game. Tampa is six and

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Speaker 2: one right now, but man, are they good. And they

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Speaker 2: just put a herding on the Bears. So here's the

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Speaker 2: problem for New Orleans. They can't run the ball. And

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Speaker 2: you don't run the ball on this defense for Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is giving up three point seven yards per rush,

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Speaker 2: third best in the NFL. Problem is New Orleans runs

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Speaker 2: the ball three point nine yards carry. That's not good.

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Speaker 2: Alvin Kamara can't run. I'll be on under Alvin Kamara

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Speaker 2: rushing props in this game.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we'll see.

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Speaker 2: Where the numbers kind of kick out and where Darrean

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Speaker 2: Harris likes it as well for the live stream. But

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Speaker 2: Alvin Kamara under rushing props, yep, they're gonna run the ball.

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Speaker 1: If they try, they're gonna have zero success.

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Speaker 2: And that means it's Jameis Winston throwing into a secondary

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Speaker 2: that's not great for Tampa, but it's Jamis. I think

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Speaker 2: Jamis throws for a couple of touchdowns in this game, Okay,

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Speaker 2: I do. I think Jameis Winston over one and a

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Speaker 2: half touchdown tosses is a pretty good bet.

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Speaker 1: I think he's gonna throw.

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Speaker 2: On this defense because this defense has been susceptible to

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Speaker 2: giving up you know, not huge plays, but kind of

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Speaker 2: big plays.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Tampa's.

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Speaker 2: Giving up two point four yards per game is two

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Speaker 2: point four touchdowns per game, ten best in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: But three point two touchdowns a game for New Orleans

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Speaker 2: that's eighth best in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: So they're scoring, but Tampa scores too.

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Speaker 2: Four point three touchdowns per game, that's number one, but

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Speaker 2: New Orleans defense only giving up one point seven touchdowns

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Speaker 2: per game. If their defense really bows up, I think

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Speaker 2: they could keep them in the game. And maybe that's

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Speaker 2: why the under comes in here on this game. But

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Speaker 2: I think at the end of the day, Jameis Winston

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Speaker 2: makes mistakes, and I think this Bucks team has enough

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Speaker 2: playmakers to make his life a living heck. And I

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Speaker 2: think they get after him, and I think they make

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Speaker 2: Jameis Winston make mistakes. I would love nothing more for

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Speaker 2: the Saints to win this game. Okay, it would be

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Speaker 2: great for the over nine and a half bet that

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Speaker 2: we've got going with New Orleans. They've got four they

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Speaker 2: got to win here at five, which basically you know,

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Speaker 2: after seven games they're five and two. That's enormous for

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Speaker 2: the over note and a half wins. But I just

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Speaker 2: don't see it. I think Tampa Bay, I think the

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Speaker 2: Buccaneers defense will make enough plays, and I think Jamis

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Speaker 2: Winston ultimately will throw and make mistakes here in this game.

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay laying four and a half, I'm going Bucks

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Speaker 2: minus four and a half here for one unit, all right,

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Speaker 2: So those are the plays since he minus ten. We're

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Speaker 2: going Patriots plus four and a half. We're going Bucks

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Speaker 2: minus four and a half, and the over fifteen and

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Speaker 2: a half for the Titans and the Colts. I do

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Speaker 2: lean Indianapolis minus two and a half minus three.

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Speaker 1: That's you know.

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Speaker 2: I may have a personal play on Indianapolis. I may

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Speaker 2: the teaser bet will still come at you. We'll see

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Speaker 2: what I'm gonna do with the teaser bet. Not exactly

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Speaker 2: positive where I'm going with the teaser. Will watch line

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Speaker 2: movements in the morning, see how volatile the Lions get.

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Speaker 1: There may be a game that.

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Speaker 2: Does qualify for a long teaser by the time we

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Speaker 2: get to the live stream. Very possible. But as of

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Speaker 2: right now, I don't know if we're going to have

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Speaker 2: a long teaser for tomorrow because I don't know if

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Speaker 2: it actually any game qualifies for a long teaser. But

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Speaker 2: we will have just a plain teaser going on for

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Speaker 2: tomorrow's podcast or tomorrow's slate for sure. So minimum five

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Speaker 2: plus the props all still to come at you. Guys

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Speaker 2: coming up here, so I will talk to you for

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Speaker 2: the live stream eleven am Eastern time, eight o'clock in

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Speaker 2: the morning Pacific time. For the live stream with Dan Harrison,

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Speaker 2: myself off the YouTube channel for Bettingpros dot com minus

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Speaker 2: Matt Perult to follow me on Twitter at sports Talk

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Speaker 2: Matt each and they morning. It's the Daily Juice podcast

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Speaker 2: right here on bettingcros dot com