WEBVTT - Can The Center Hold After Charlie Kirk? Plus: Shutdown Strategy 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:29.324 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:29.364 --> 0:00:32.044 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:00:31.604 --> 0:00:34.284 And I'm Nate Silver. Today on the show, it's a 0:00:34.364 --> 0:00:38.644 politics focused episode. We're going to talk about the story 0:00:38.684 --> 0:00:39.964 we think we have to talk about, at least a 0:00:40.004 --> 0:00:45.004 little bit, the assassination of Charlie Kirk, the conservative influencer, 0:00:45.444 --> 0:00:50.164 a tragic and scary event, and we're going to carefully 0:00:50.204 --> 0:00:51.844 have a little bit of a heart to heart about it, 0:00:51.964 --> 0:00:54.804 and then we're going to talk about more pedestrian politics, 0:00:54.804 --> 0:00:58.684 talk about the potential looming government shut down in Washington 0:00:58.884 --> 0:01:01.924 and what both parties might be strategizing about for that. 0:01:02.244 --> 0:01:05.084 Yeah, I think this is going to be an interesting episode, 0:01:05.124 --> 0:01:09.884 a really interesting conversation. And also for our listener, this 0:01:10.004 --> 0:01:12.844 is going to be the first week where we are 0:01:12.884 --> 0:01:16.164 going to a twice weekly schedule of Risky Business, so 0:01:16.644 --> 0:01:18.804 we will now be in your feed twice a week. 0:01:19.124 --> 0:01:22.084 And yeah, we hope you enjoy that, and we'd love 0:01:22.124 --> 0:01:28.764 to hear your feedback about how you think it's going. 0:01:31.644 --> 0:01:34.004 On that note, Nate, let's turn too. You know what 0:01:34.124 --> 0:01:37.044 is I think on the I mean on the more 0:01:37.084 --> 0:01:40.084 serious side of topics period, but in terms of the 0:01:40.124 --> 0:01:43.164 types of things we talk about at Risky Business. It's 0:01:43.164 --> 0:01:45.724 definitely on the very serious end of that, which is 0:01:45.764 --> 0:01:49.644 the assassination of Charlie Kirk. And you had actually met Charlie, right, Nate. 0:01:49.924 --> 0:01:50.764 I never met Charlie. 0:01:50.844 --> 0:01:50.884 No. 0:01:50.964 --> 0:01:54.524 I think he sent me a DM once and invited 0:01:54.564 --> 0:01:56.844 me on his show when it said something that riled 0:01:56.924 --> 0:02:02.244 up Democrats, and I ignore most invites if we're being honest, 0:02:02.244 --> 0:02:05.004 it was nothing personal. But yeah, I'm sure. Look, I 0:02:05.644 --> 0:02:08.084 wrote a piece at my sub stack about this, which 0:02:08.084 --> 0:02:10.284 is kind of how, you know, you don't have to 0:02:10.284 --> 0:02:13.164 say anything. Why don't people just kind of be more restrained? 0:02:13.164 --> 0:02:15.564 And maybe we're violating that here. I'm not sure. Look, 0:02:15.724 --> 0:02:18.484 I do think that there is I called it like 0:02:18.484 --> 0:02:20.764 an implicit fraternity, I guess a slightly gendered term, but 0:02:20.804 --> 0:02:25.444 an ocur about like people who comment about politics for 0:02:25.524 --> 0:02:28.324 a living right and people who are in the public 0:02:28.364 --> 0:02:31.084 eye and obviously you go on Twitter or Blue Sky 0:02:31.164 --> 0:02:34.684 whatever else. Right, there's a lot of debate about what 0:02:34.764 --> 0:02:39.204 type of political citizen Charlie Kirk was. But but still, 0:02:39.684 --> 0:02:41.524 when somebody is assassinate and I mean, you know, I 0:02:41.684 --> 0:02:45.444 spoke at a in an open public forum in ames Ioweat. 0:02:45.444 --> 0:02:50.204 I was at university two days after Kirk was killed, 0:02:50.524 --> 0:02:54.244 So I mean, it's not not in my head to 0:02:54.284 --> 0:02:57.244 be looking out at the crowd. And you know, when 0:02:57.244 --> 0:03:00.164 you get the weird questions later after the show, it's like, Okay, 0:03:00.164 --> 0:03:02.044 what's going on here? And you know, I mean, I 0:03:02.084 --> 0:03:05.484 don't know. I've certainly gotten death threats before. But but 0:03:07.084 --> 0:03:09.084 I mean, Charlie Kirk is also a little bit hard 0:03:09.204 --> 0:03:12.284 to characterize, right. I was struggling with whether to call 0:03:12.364 --> 0:03:18.524 him an activist or an organizer or a provocateur, or 0:03:18.564 --> 0:03:25.204 an intellectual or a media personality, right or what exactly. 0:03:25.284 --> 0:03:28.764 I'm not sure it is actually a perfectly comparable figure 0:03:29.644 --> 0:03:32.044 on the left, because the left and right are asymmetric, 0:03:32.124 --> 0:03:36.244 but like someone who was very influential right, who kind 0:03:36.284 --> 0:03:41.004 of like bridged the gap between when he was friends 0:03:41.404 --> 0:03:43.484 I think, just not friendly, but I think Trump would 0:03:43.484 --> 0:03:46.644 call him a friend with Trump himself right, and had 0:03:46.724 --> 0:03:49.164 like a quite large audience. 0:03:49.444 --> 0:03:52.564 Yeah, I think whatever we call him, Nate. What I 0:03:52.564 --> 0:03:55.524 would like to stress is he was someone who exercised 0:03:55.564 --> 0:04:00.924 his First Amendment right incredibly well, eloquently and freely, as 0:04:00.964 --> 0:04:03.204 he should have been able to do. And I do 0:04:03.364 --> 0:04:07.404 want to stress a truly important point, which is that 0:04:07.924 --> 0:04:11.324 we can't conflate speech violence right like people love to 0:04:11.324 --> 0:04:14.724 say that, oh, speech can be violence. No violence is violence. 0:04:15.004 --> 0:04:17.164 Whether or not you agree with Charlie Kirk or you 0:04:17.244 --> 0:04:20.284 disagree with him, he was practicing free speech. He was 0:04:20.364 --> 0:04:23.404 engaging in debate. And that's something that you know, we 0:04:23.444 --> 0:04:25.604 should be doing in a democracy, right. We should be 0:04:25.684 --> 0:04:28.604 talking to people we agree with, we should be talking 0:04:28.604 --> 0:04:32.044 to people we disagree with, we should be having conversations. 0:04:32.164 --> 0:04:36.644 That's the backbone of critical thinking, that's the backbone of progress, 0:04:36.684 --> 0:04:41.324 that's a backbone of society. And the fact that someone 0:04:41.404 --> 0:04:46.044 can be assassinated for exercising free speech is something that 0:04:46.084 --> 0:04:49.244 should absolutely never happen. And as you say, nay, you 0:04:49.324 --> 0:04:52.964 were doing an event right afterwards, and it definitely I 0:04:52.964 --> 0:04:55.644 think as someone you know we both do public events, 0:04:55.684 --> 0:04:59.724 we both do public speaking, I think it changes your 0:04:59.924 --> 0:05:04.364 kind of risk calculus, risk framing when you see, oh 0:05:04.404 --> 0:05:06.324 my god, have we gotten to the point in a 0:05:06.324 --> 0:05:09.804 society where people think that this is okay, that this 0:05:09.884 --> 0:05:13.204 is a legitimate response, that if I disagree with someone, 0:05:13.684 --> 0:05:15.204 you know, violence is okay. 0:05:15.684 --> 0:05:20.484 Yeah, And there's also a chilling absolutely right, huge chilling 0:05:20.724 --> 0:05:23.524 people with what they say and also whether they get invited. 0:05:23.564 --> 0:05:27.924 I mean, one case with some questionable similarities, but Sam 0:05:27.924 --> 0:05:30.324 and Reshti was attacked at a big festival in rural 0:05:30.364 --> 0:05:33.124 New York a couple of years ago. There was a 0:05:33.124 --> 0:05:36.644 flat blaw against him, and I suppose that was of 0:05:36.644 --> 0:05:39.084 a chilly partly fulfilled, right, and. 0:05:39.084 --> 0:05:41.324 He almost died. By the way, he was incredibly lucky 0:05:41.364 --> 0:05:43.484 to survive. People thought he was going to die. He 0:05:43.564 --> 0:05:45.764 has lost vision and what I it was. You know, 0:05:45.804 --> 0:05:47.964 it was a very very close call, but that could 0:05:48.004 --> 0:05:49.324 have very easily gone the other way. 0:05:49.524 --> 0:05:52.884 But you know, part of the joy, I guess of 0:05:52.964 --> 0:05:56.164 doing an event in a community, particularly a smaller community, 0:05:56.244 --> 0:05:58.244 is that the doors are open, right, you know, I 0:05:58.484 --> 0:06:01.044 have have you been to a political convention like the 0:06:01.084 --> 0:06:02.764 Democratic Republican convention before? 0:06:03.404 --> 0:06:04.204 I never have, No. 0:06:05.004 --> 0:06:10.124 I mean, the security is incredible, Like it takes an 0:06:10.124 --> 0:06:12.044 hour to get in there, it takes twenty minutes to 0:06:12.044 --> 0:06:15.964 get out of there, right there is it's very cumbersome 0:06:16.124 --> 0:06:19.204 and in some ways it's like not very conducive to 0:06:20.804 --> 0:06:23.644 political protests or political speech, right, And of course parties 0:06:23.644 --> 0:06:27.964 that want to suppress political protests often use threats of 0:06:28.084 --> 0:06:30.244 violence as an excuse to say, Okay, we don't want 0:06:30.244 --> 0:06:34.244 you people protesting about Gaza or Bernie Sanders or whatever 0:06:34.324 --> 0:06:36.284 else in the convention halls, so we can't let you 0:06:36.324 --> 0:06:42.884 in for security reasons. But yeah, I mean, look, in 0:06:42.884 --> 0:06:47.844 some ways, there's not that much to say about if 0:06:47.844 --> 0:06:52.084 you don't know him, about Charlie Kirk, the you know 0:06:52.124 --> 0:06:54.164 what I mean, Like I don't there's this whole game 0:06:54.564 --> 0:07:00.884 about like using this as a positioning exercise for where 0:07:00.924 --> 0:07:05.404 people fit into the discourse. And I don't know. It's 0:07:06.244 --> 0:07:08.364 I was fucking shot like on a university. Get this 0:07:08.524 --> 0:07:11.324 in cold blood, right, It's like you know, I mean, 0:07:11.484 --> 0:07:13.604 I you know, no one even has the pretense anymore 0:07:13.724 --> 0:07:18.204 of Oh, let's quote unquote not politicize this. And by definition, 0:07:18.884 --> 0:07:21.164 although there's a little bit of ambiguity still, and like 0:07:21.204 --> 0:07:24.004 the shooter's motivations, I wouldn't say that much necessarily, but 0:07:24.084 --> 0:07:28.244 some right, by definition, and an assassination is a a 0:07:28.324 --> 0:07:34.604 political act, right, And you know, I think this is 0:07:34.604 --> 0:07:37.244 becoming more common. There's something to beat about that fact, right, 0:07:37.284 --> 0:07:39.204 But like, you know, I don't know. I mean, it 0:07:39.244 --> 0:07:46.204 was just last year when when Trump cat shot and 0:07:46.244 --> 0:07:47.684 I'm going to be a little joking about it because 0:07:47.684 --> 0:07:49.604 he survived, and that was kind of the mood about it, right, 0:07:49.604 --> 0:07:51.404 he had that that, you know, I had just busted 0:07:51.444 --> 0:07:54.924 out of a tournament poker tournament Balted's poker. I'm like, Maria, 0:07:54.924 --> 0:07:57.244 I won't see you for dinner because I busted out, 0:07:57.284 --> 0:07:59.604 and I think somebody just shut Trump. But immediately it 0:07:59.644 --> 0:08:03.364 was clear that Trump hadn't survived and had this triumphant moment, 0:08:03.444 --> 0:08:05.044 and so it was almost you know, I was kind 0:08:05.084 --> 0:08:07.004 of out wandering around on the strip getting a sad 0:08:07.004 --> 0:08:09.484 little dinner with the other people who busted out, and 0:08:09.524 --> 0:08:12.164 people there were kind of excited, right, It's like, oh, 0:08:12.164 --> 0:08:15.804 that's cool, he survived, right, And that kind of detracted 0:08:15.804 --> 0:08:19.644 from the magnitude of what that event had been and 0:08:19.684 --> 0:08:22.084 how scary that could have been. And I think you're 0:08:24.044 --> 0:08:28.444 you're seeing now, yeah, what happens when you create somebody 0:08:28.444 --> 0:08:30.164 who can be a martyr potentially. 0:08:30.724 --> 0:08:32.684 And I'll go a step further, and Nate, I think 0:08:32.724 --> 0:08:38.284 that that was a precursor to another moment that people 0:08:38.564 --> 0:08:42.124 made light of, which was the December assassination of Brian Thompson, 0:08:42.164 --> 0:08:45.804 the CEO of United Healthcare. Right where people actually made 0:08:46.124 --> 0:08:51.764 Luigima Joon into kind of this hero, right folk hero, like, yes, 0:08:51.804 --> 0:08:54.884 you went after the bad guys, and we talked about 0:08:54.924 --> 0:08:57.484 it on the pod back then, where like, holy shit, guys, 0:08:57.524 --> 0:09:00.164 this is a horrible reaction, like this is not what 0:09:00.204 --> 0:09:02.004 you should be I don't care what you think about 0:09:02.364 --> 0:09:05.524 you know, healthcare in America or what you think about 0:09:05.604 --> 0:09:08.284 United or all of these things. This is not the answer, 0:09:08.644 --> 0:09:11.124 right violence that like, this is not okay, This is 0:09:11.284 --> 0:09:14.684 never something to be celebrated, and yet people were celebrating it. 0:09:14.924 --> 0:09:17.004 So I think that we've seen kind of this progression 0:09:17.444 --> 0:09:19.804 that in some ways has led us to this moment 0:09:19.844 --> 0:09:22.284 where you think, oh, you know, first of all, this 0:09:22.364 --> 0:09:24.884 is the right way to solve it, and secondly, like 0:09:24.924 --> 0:09:27.764 I could even be a hero right for killing someone 0:09:27.804 --> 0:09:30.284 who you know, people disagreed with or thought they did 0:09:30.284 --> 0:09:33.684 something bad. And it's just so profoundly fucked up to 0:09:34.124 --> 0:09:37.444 think in those terms and to think that this is 0:09:37.644 --> 0:09:40.484 just something you do. Right. This is why we have society, 0:09:40.524 --> 0:09:42.084 This is why we have laws, This is why we 0:09:42.164 --> 0:09:45.484 have norms of behavior, This is why we live, you know, 0:09:45.524 --> 0:09:48.924 in a civilization and not in the wild West, where 0:09:48.964 --> 0:09:51.044 the way that you solve things was to duke it 0:09:51.044 --> 0:09:51.724 out with guns. 0:09:52.964 --> 0:09:55.844 Yeah, look the way I kind of look at civilization. 0:09:56.044 --> 0:09:58.284 Like again, it's amazing that you're in New York and 0:09:58.284 --> 0:10:00.124 it's a city of eight billion people and everyone has 0:10:00.124 --> 0:10:01.724 different objectives on their mind, and there is lots of 0:10:01.724 --> 0:10:04.404 petty crime from day to day and other things, and 0:10:04.484 --> 0:10:08.724 yet the kind of center holds, right, But the center 0:10:08.724 --> 0:10:11.084 holds I think some narrowly right where you have a 0:10:11.124 --> 0:10:14.004 lot of I'm going to confuse centrifugal and centripetal. Right, 0:10:14.084 --> 0:10:18.084 you have a lot of forces pulling out into chaos. 0:10:18.204 --> 0:10:23.924 Then you have forces holding people together, including policing, including 0:10:24.884 --> 0:10:28.964 common decency, including common sense, right, and kind of everything 0:10:29.044 --> 0:10:31.324 in between, and like it might not take that much 0:10:31.364 --> 0:10:33.804 for things to fall out of equilibrium. And maybe and 0:10:33.844 --> 0:10:36.524 maybe social media is that. And you know, I don't 0:10:36.564 --> 0:10:41.764 think things have calmed down very much on Twitter, right, 0:10:44.804 --> 0:10:48.604 I've covered a lot of news stories and like five 0:10:48.684 --> 0:10:50.764 days no matter what the story is of things not 0:10:50.804 --> 0:10:55.444 calming down, it's a little unusual, right. You know, you 0:10:55.484 --> 0:11:02.244 also have people who are getting fired for saying thoughtless 0:11:02.324 --> 0:11:04.524 or I was gonna say un pc which is I mean, 0:11:04.564 --> 0:11:06.444 I think it is kind of like a political correctness issue, 0:11:06.524 --> 0:11:09.684 right if people fired for saying things that in some 0:11:09.764 --> 0:11:13.804 cases are I think stupid and tone. 0:11:13.564 --> 0:11:18.324 Deaf, but like still a fireable effects, like yeah, look in. 0:11:18.324 --> 0:11:22.244 Some of them. You know, Matthew Dowd is my former 0:11:23.164 --> 0:11:26.404 ABC News colleague, and I think Matthew Dowd's a lowheart 0:11:26.404 --> 0:11:28.324 and an idiot, But I think you should be fired 0:11:28.364 --> 0:11:30.404 for being a low heart and an idiot in general 0:11:30.444 --> 0:11:33.204 about almost every issue that he weighs in on, and 0:11:33.524 --> 0:11:36.244 not on a short preparation TV hit when it wasn't 0:11:36.244 --> 0:11:39.884 clear what had happened about saying Okay, well, this guy 0:11:40.004 --> 0:11:42.524 was kind of encouraging what I mean. You know, I 0:11:42.564 --> 0:11:44.644 don't think his comment is correct, but it's also like 0:11:46.084 --> 0:11:50.324 it's within the realm of free speech that I think 0:11:50.404 --> 0:11:53.484 Charlie Kirk is relatively not hit theocritical about free speech 0:11:53.524 --> 0:11:58.164 and would have wanted right to support absolutely absolutely. 0:11:58.204 --> 0:11:59.924 And this goes back to what you said at the 0:11:59.924 --> 0:12:02.884 beginning night, which I think we should just stress a 0:12:02.884 --> 0:12:05.804 little bit more, which is the chilling effect of this right, 0:12:06.124 --> 0:12:08.604 the effect that this has on free speech more broadly, 0:12:08.884 --> 0:12:11.324 on what both feel like they can and can't say, 0:12:12.124 --> 0:12:15.004 and the fact that there are now these like very 0:12:15.044 --> 0:12:18.884 strong repercussions for rights that you should have right and 0:12:18.964 --> 0:12:21.764 even going a step further. So there was a piece 0:12:21.804 --> 0:12:24.964 in New York Times that pointed out that defend Secretary 0:12:25.004 --> 0:12:28.924 Pete Hegseth had said that the agency was monitoring and 0:12:28.964 --> 0:12:33.244 tracking any military personnel who celebrated or mocked Kirk's death, 0:12:33.684 --> 0:12:37.364 and Christopher Landau, the Deputy Secretary of State, said that 0:12:37.444 --> 0:12:40.844 the administration would be stripping visas from any individuals who 0:12:40.884 --> 0:12:45.244 celebrated Kirk's death. So you know, this is like it's 0:12:45.324 --> 0:12:48.564 going further and further right from oh, you might be 0:12:48.644 --> 0:12:52.004 fired to you might have your visa taken away, and 0:12:52.044 --> 0:12:55.124 I've I mean, that's frightening. Everything about this moment is frightening. 0:12:55.364 --> 0:12:57.444 I want to also point out something that you mentioned 0:12:57.484 --> 0:12:59.964 about New York and like the fact that New York 0:13:00.044 --> 0:13:03.244 functions and sometimes you think, oh, how precarious is that? 0:13:03.564 --> 0:13:06.204 There's actually a lot of work in psychology that shows 0:13:06.204 --> 0:13:09.804 that it is quite precarious. Right, Social norms are per careus, 0:13:10.164 --> 0:13:14.324 that norms of behavior are precarious, that we are often 0:13:14.764 --> 0:13:17.884 kind of walking on a razor's edge where it can 0:13:17.924 --> 0:13:21.124 go in one direction or another, depending on what prominent 0:13:21.164 --> 0:13:24.204 people say, you know, depending on what people think that 0:13:24.284 --> 0:13:27.964 these things do shift and can shift very rapidly. So 0:13:27.964 --> 0:13:30.484 I think we should just remember that, you know, social 0:13:30.484 --> 0:13:33.164 norms that we take for granted, we shouldn't take for 0:13:33.204 --> 0:13:36.884 granted they they do need to be protected, or we 0:13:36.964 --> 0:13:39.684 might end up devolving, which is what I think we're 0:13:39.804 --> 0:13:58.764 witnessing right now speaking about, you know, the increased political 0:13:58.884 --> 0:14:02.004 violence security, I think this is a good moment to 0:14:02.564 --> 0:14:06.404 shift gears a little bit and talk about the potential 0:14:06.484 --> 0:14:09.644 government shut down and funding because one of the things 0:14:09.644 --> 0:14:12.324 that is happening is that the White House has requested 0:14:12.604 --> 0:14:15.764 fifty eight million dollars in security funding for both the 0:14:15.804 --> 0:14:21.764 executive and the judicial branches after Charlie Kirk's assassination. And 0:14:22.244 --> 0:14:29.164 this is basically they're trying to insert this as part 0:14:29.164 --> 0:14:32.844 of the stop gap bill to prevent a government shutdown, 0:14:33.204 --> 0:14:36.684 which is looming on October first. So this is clearly 0:14:36.724 --> 0:14:39.724 something that is being used. I don't know if it's 0:14:39.764 --> 0:14:42.644 being used as a pretext or if this is actually 0:14:43.244 --> 0:14:46.964 something that they should be doing, but it's interesting that 0:14:47.284 --> 0:14:51.964 this is making its way from something that happened last 0:14:52.004 --> 0:14:56.244 week to something that is a key provision in a 0:14:56.284 --> 0:14:59.484 bill that can prevent the shutting down of the government, which, 0:14:59.524 --> 0:15:02.164 by the way, night, I feel like we have an 0:15:02.204 --> 0:15:06.204 impending government shutdown. So frequently these days. 0:15:05.964 --> 0:15:08.164 Should I get a quick background or for I have 0:15:08.204 --> 0:15:10.924 a story place down? So like in the spring, was 0:15:10.964 --> 0:15:15.444 it March or whatever? In the spring, Republicans had to 0:15:15.444 --> 0:15:19.964 pass a continuing resolution to keep the government open. People 0:15:19.964 --> 0:15:21.684 thought that bill might get stimied in the House with 0:15:21.764 --> 0:15:24.484 the gup he has a very narrow majority, and they 0:15:24.524 --> 0:15:26.684 passed it party line vote, I think, with one exception 0:15:26.844 --> 0:15:29.364 on each side. It went to the Senate, where for 0:15:29.524 --> 0:15:32.804 that type of legislation the filibuster is still under the 0:15:32.884 --> 0:15:37.004 rules of the Senate. So ultimately Democrats debated to shut down. 0:15:37.084 --> 0:15:40.364 Public commentators debate a shutdown. I actually wrote a post 0:15:40.404 --> 0:15:42.364 I guess it was after they didn't, after Schumer had 0:15:42.404 --> 0:15:44.844 conceded it was about to concede, saying Democrats should have 0:15:44.924 --> 0:15:46.724 had a shutdown. I thought it was good opportunity. I 0:15:46.724 --> 0:15:49.124 thought they could highlight dough spending cuts and take advantage 0:15:49.124 --> 0:15:53.564 of Elam Musk's on popularity. But Schumer and what was it, 0:15:53.684 --> 0:15:56.684 you know, seven or so other Democrats voted for cloture 0:15:56.724 --> 0:16:00.484 to and a filibuster, and so therefore the bill passed. However, 0:16:00.604 --> 0:16:03.604 that resolution was for six months, and it expires at 0:16:03.604 --> 0:16:06.004 the end of this month, September. Say, thirty first, I 0:16:06.044 --> 0:16:07.484 think this how many days this is? Had? 0:16:07.644 --> 0:16:07.684 Have? 0:16:08.284 --> 0:16:11.484 Thirty September thirtieth. 0:16:11.804 --> 0:16:13.924 I remember night. I think I told you about my 0:16:14.044 --> 0:16:17.444 little uh the little thing that you can use. 0:16:17.524 --> 0:16:19.964 I know, yeah, you know. September feels like a thirty 0:16:20.044 --> 0:16:22.844 one though, right, it's a pretty fucking important month. September 0:16:23.404 --> 0:16:24.244 might be the best month. 0:16:24.364 --> 0:16:26.564 It is an important month. It's such a great weather month, 0:16:26.644 --> 0:16:29.004 back to school month. I love September. But it's a 0:16:29.084 --> 0:16:33.004 thirty day month. Unfortunately, good things never last night, good things. 0:16:33.004 --> 0:16:38.964 Never last Okay, uh, sorry I lost Okay, So anyway, 0:16:39.044 --> 0:16:41.764 this time though, it's Democrats October one. 0:16:41.964 --> 0:16:44.084 October one is when the government would shut down. 0:16:44.604 --> 0:16:47.204 This time though, it's Democrats who seem to want to 0:16:47.244 --> 0:16:50.724 shut down. So Chuck Schumer indicated late last week that 0:16:52.044 --> 0:16:55.884 he had canvassed his caucus and they are inclined. 0:16:55.964 --> 0:17:01.884 That sounds really inappropriate. Well, you canvass my caucus. Sorry, sorry, guys, 0:17:01.924 --> 0:17:06.364 this is important. Oh all right, So he'd canvassed his caucus. 0:17:06.124 --> 0:17:10.204 Yes, and there was appetite in the credit caucus to 0:17:10.364 --> 0:17:16.404 make demands. I suppose about healthcare, they want to extend 0:17:16.444 --> 0:17:20.044 Obamacare subsidies in Medicaid and restore Medicaid cuts that were 0:17:20.044 --> 0:17:22.724 made in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act not my 0:17:22.884 --> 0:17:25.164 term for it, the official piece they have the legislation. 0:17:25.684 --> 0:17:29.404 And meanwhile, lots of center and left of center commentators, 0:17:29.484 --> 0:17:33.284 from as Reclined to Robert Wright to everybody else's been saying, yeah, 0:17:33.324 --> 0:17:37.684 we need a fight. Democrats can't concede to this, although 0:17:37.684 --> 0:17:40.204 they don't really agree on the whys or the what's 0:17:40.844 --> 0:17:44.244 exactly right, but there's agreement that something must be done. 0:17:44.924 --> 0:17:47.324 That Schumer was so much of a pushover last time 0:17:47.844 --> 0:17:49.804 that this is one of the few points Democrats have leverage. 0:17:49.804 --> 0:17:51.124 I when you want to cash that in for like 0:17:51.244 --> 0:17:55.444 a big media moment or for actual concessions, that you 0:17:55.564 --> 0:17:57.004 have to it's time to do something. 0:17:58.204 --> 0:18:00.604 Yeah, I mean, I think that Schumer learned his lesson 0:18:00.684 --> 0:18:02.484 a little too well from the last time, when he 0:18:02.604 --> 0:18:06.724 got such horrible coverage, such horrible press for making the 0:18:06.844 --> 0:18:09.324 deal right where he said, look, I'm just I'm doing 0:18:09.564 --> 0:18:12.964 what needs to be done, and he came off looking terrible. 0:18:13.084 --> 0:18:15.124 But I think that the other strategic moment, and I'm 0:18:15.164 --> 0:18:17.444 not writing a piece about this night, so please, you know, 0:18:17.524 --> 0:18:21.204 feel free to chime in, is I think that Democrats 0:18:21.244 --> 0:18:24.324 are seeing this as a moment where they can really 0:18:25.324 --> 0:18:30.084 start creating kind of new messaging for mid term elections 0:18:30.404 --> 0:18:34.404 and for you know, for presidential elections moving forward, to 0:18:34.484 --> 0:18:36.804 say that, you know, we are the true party that's 0:18:36.844 --> 0:18:39.604 protecting the people. Right. The reason that we're doing this 0:18:39.844 --> 0:18:43.324 is we want you to have your healthcare, your medicare. 0:18:43.404 --> 0:18:45.044 We want it not to be cut. You know, we 0:18:45.244 --> 0:18:48.524 want all of these benefits that are being lost with 0:18:48.644 --> 0:18:51.604 rural communities for the working man of America. We want 0:18:51.644 --> 0:18:53.644 to protect this and that's what we're trying to fight for. 0:18:54.244 --> 0:18:56.204 And I think that's also part of the messaging and 0:18:56.284 --> 0:18:58.364 part of the things that they are trying to make 0:18:58.404 --> 0:19:02.724 sure get changed in the reconciliation before the bill moves forward. 0:19:03.644 --> 0:19:05.724 I mean, there are different theories, right, I mean, look, 0:19:05.804 --> 0:19:07.684 partly it's like are yousing there with like the chest 0:19:07.764 --> 0:19:11.204 tern slugs zugs wing. I don't know how to say it, 0:19:11.284 --> 0:19:12.484 and yeah, I. 0:19:12.604 --> 0:19:18.844 Have read it, but let's explain it. Because my familiarity 0:19:18.964 --> 0:19:21.684 is very passing, to the point where I too, Nate, 0:19:21.804 --> 0:19:22.964 do not know how to pronounce it. 0:19:22.964 --> 0:19:26.924 It's a situation where every move you make is worse 0:19:27.044 --> 0:19:30.564 than no move, right, that you would prefer that it 0:19:30.684 --> 0:19:34.724 was your opponent's turn. And like so, like let's say 0:19:34.924 --> 0:19:39.564 Democrats supplied the votes for the Continuing Resolution, I mean, 0:19:40.684 --> 0:19:44.164 you know, and try to de escalate this. I mean 0:19:44.684 --> 0:19:47.044 you know, I mean they would look like pushovers. Schumer 0:19:47.044 --> 0:19:49.284 in particular. I mean, first of all, he is up 0:19:49.324 --> 0:19:52.164 for reelection, not next year, but in twenty twenty eight. 0:19:52.844 --> 0:19:54.404 You have a lot of people coming after Schumer. Right, 0:19:54.444 --> 0:19:58.404 there are lots of you know, to state obvious names, 0:19:58.444 --> 0:20:01.924 AOC she doesn't run for president, for example, or Zaren 0:20:02.404 --> 0:20:05.084 who knows, right, can't be president because he was born 0:20:05.164 --> 0:20:06.484 U gone it, but he could run for Senate, right, 0:20:06.524 --> 0:20:12.164 But a lot of talented and all the MSNBC loving Democrats. Right, 0:20:12.204 --> 0:20:14.124 But there's gonna be a lot of demand for Chuck 0:20:14.164 --> 0:20:19.364 Schumer's seat, right, and as well as if he survives electorally, 0:20:19.844 --> 0:20:22.404 then maybe his role as majority leader and so he 0:20:22.524 --> 0:20:26.204 kind of I think has to do something right. And 0:20:26.284 --> 0:20:30.164 the kind of Ezra Cline argument is that if you 0:20:30.364 --> 0:20:34.484 supply votes for this continuing resolution. Are you not tacitly 0:20:34.804 --> 0:20:40.644 endorsing this government that you say is authoritarian and acting 0:20:40.724 --> 0:20:44.284 in bad faith and corrupt even before you get to 0:20:44.364 --> 0:20:48.364 the fact that they are evscerating a lot of priorities 0:20:48.404 --> 0:20:53.004 that Democrats hold deer and I kind of buy that. 0:20:53.364 --> 0:20:55.844 I kind of buy that as a default in politics, 0:20:55.924 --> 0:20:58.884 that doing the thing that you believe in and or 0:20:59.164 --> 0:21:02.844 is consistent with your overall messaging. Right. I think that's worthwhile, 0:21:03.004 --> 0:21:06.724 and we've seen I think repeatedly that like Democrats, sometimes 0:21:06.884 --> 0:21:09.324 the rhetoric exceeds that they're actually willing to do. Right. 0:21:09.444 --> 0:21:11.004 I think we've talked about so many times, don't have 0:21:11.004 --> 0:21:12.324 to draw on it anymore. I think if they have 0:21:12.404 --> 0:21:17.484 really regarded Trump two point zero was an essential threat, 0:21:17.524 --> 0:21:21.364 they might have thought more carefully about about how fit 0:21:21.444 --> 0:21:23.004 Biden was to run for a second term. They might 0:21:23.004 --> 0:21:24.684 have thought more carefully about whe Kamala Harris was the 0:21:24.764 --> 0:21:27.884 optimal person to replace him, and so to sound whatever, 0:21:28.044 --> 0:21:29.804 might have thought more carefully about We've been through all 0:21:29.884 --> 0:21:33.044 that on this program before, Right, But like you know, so, 0:21:33.124 --> 0:21:37.604 I support the notion that like put your money where 0:21:37.604 --> 0:21:39.084 your mouth is. On the other hand, there's like not 0:21:39.204 --> 0:21:42.764 really a good endgame for democrats here. I don't think 0:21:42.804 --> 0:21:45.124 it's not clear what endgame they want, right, because on 0:21:45.204 --> 0:21:48.364 the one hand, I think that Ezra Calase is more 0:21:48.564 --> 0:21:52.564 like we just want to have change the narrative, change 0:21:52.564 --> 0:21:54.524 the discords. And by the way, Trumps approval rating is 0:21:54.604 --> 0:21:56.764 not really moving very much, right, So like it's like 0:21:56.884 --> 0:21:59.844 not like he's in some stings. It's about a net 0:21:59.924 --> 0:22:04.124 negative seven negative eight, right, So it's like, you know whatever, 0:22:04.364 --> 0:22:07.964 forty three percent approved, fifty one percent disapprove, somewhere in 0:22:08.044 --> 0:22:10.404 that range, right, And it's not really moved. It has 0:22:10.444 --> 0:22:12.444 not moved because of Jeffrey Epstein. That has not moved 0:22:12.444 --> 0:22:16.364 because of of of whatever scandals there are. Right, we 0:22:16.404 --> 0:22:18.084 don't have any data yet. We'll be affected by the 0:22:18.204 --> 0:22:21.804 Charlie Kirk the first segment, right, But like it did 0:22:21.884 --> 0:22:25.084 seem to move for tariffs about three months ago or 0:22:25.124 --> 0:22:27.364 excuse me, six months ago during Liberation Day was a 0:22:27.404 --> 0:22:30.124 big drop in April, and it's been steady since then. 0:22:30.204 --> 0:22:32.804 And so like, you know, there is a notion of 0:22:32.884 --> 0:22:37.844 increasing variants for democrats, I think, and kind of changing 0:22:37.884 --> 0:22:41.924 the discourse, changing the dialogue. But you know, here's the issue. 0:22:41.924 --> 0:22:44.844 I mean, if you offer a deal on healthcare, the 0:22:44.924 --> 0:22:46.484