1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:29,324 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:29,364 --> 00:00:32,044 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 3 00:00:31,604 --> 00:00:34,284 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. Today on the show, it's a 4 00:00:34,364 --> 00:00:38,644 Speaker 2: politics focused episode. We're going to talk about the story 5 00:00:38,684 --> 00:00:39,964 Speaker 2: we think we have to talk about, at least a 6 00:00:40,004 --> 00:00:45,004 Speaker 2: little bit, the assassination of Charlie Kirk, the conservative influencer, 7 00:00:45,444 --> 00:00:50,164 Speaker 2: a tragic and scary event, and we're going to carefully 8 00:00:50,204 --> 00:00:51,844 Speaker 2: have a little bit of a heart to heart about it, 9 00:00:51,964 --> 00:00:54,804 Speaker 2: and then we're going to talk about more pedestrian politics, 10 00:00:54,804 --> 00:00:58,684 Speaker 2: talk about the potential looming government shut down in Washington 11 00:00:58,884 --> 00:01:01,924 Speaker 2: and what both parties might be strategizing about for that. 12 00:01:02,244 --> 00:01:05,084 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is going to be an interesting episode, 13 00:01:05,124 --> 00:01:09,884 Speaker 1: a really interesting conversation. And also for our listener, this 14 00:01:10,004 --> 00:01:12,844 Speaker 1: is going to be the first week where we are 15 00:01:12,884 --> 00:01:16,164 Speaker 1: going to a twice weekly schedule of Risky Business, so 16 00:01:16,644 --> 00:01:18,804 Speaker 1: we will now be in your feed twice a week. 17 00:01:19,124 --> 00:01:22,084 Speaker 1: And yeah, we hope you enjoy that, and we'd love 18 00:01:22,124 --> 00:01:28,764 Speaker 1: to hear your feedback about how you think it's going. 19 00:01:31,644 --> 00:01:34,004 Speaker 1: On that note, Nate, let's turn too. You know what 20 00:01:34,124 --> 00:01:37,044 Speaker 1: is I think on the I mean on the more 21 00:01:37,084 --> 00:01:40,084 Speaker 1: serious side of topics period, but in terms of the 22 00:01:40,124 --> 00:01:43,164 Speaker 1: types of things we talk about at Risky Business. It's 23 00:01:43,164 --> 00:01:45,724 Speaker 1: definitely on the very serious end of that, which is 24 00:01:45,764 --> 00:01:49,644 Speaker 1: the assassination of Charlie Kirk. And you had actually met Charlie, right, Nate. 25 00:01:49,924 --> 00:01:50,764 Speaker 2: I never met Charlie. 26 00:01:50,844 --> 00:01:50,884 Speaker 1: No. 27 00:01:50,964 --> 00:01:54,524 Speaker 2: I think he sent me a DM once and invited 28 00:01:54,564 --> 00:01:56,844 Speaker 2: me on his show when it said something that riled 29 00:01:56,924 --> 00:02:02,244 Speaker 2: up Democrats, and I ignore most invites if we're being honest, 30 00:02:02,244 --> 00:02:05,004 Speaker 2: it was nothing personal. But yeah, I'm sure. Look, I 31 00:02:05,644 --> 00:02:08,084 Speaker 2: wrote a piece at my sub stack about this, which 32 00:02:08,084 --> 00:02:10,284 Speaker 2: is kind of how, you know, you don't have to 33 00:02:10,284 --> 00:02:13,164 Speaker 2: say anything. Why don't people just kind of be more restrained? 34 00:02:13,164 --> 00:02:15,564 Speaker 2: And maybe we're violating that here. I'm not sure. Look, 35 00:02:15,724 --> 00:02:18,484 Speaker 2: I do think that there is I called it like 36 00:02:18,484 --> 00:02:20,764 Speaker 2: an implicit fraternity, I guess a slightly gendered term, but 37 00:02:20,804 --> 00:02:25,444 Speaker 2: an ocur about like people who comment about politics for 38 00:02:25,524 --> 00:02:28,324 Speaker 2: a living right and people who are in the public 39 00:02:28,364 --> 00:02:31,084 Speaker 2: eye and obviously you go on Twitter or Blue Sky 40 00:02:31,164 --> 00:02:34,684 Speaker 2: whatever else. Right, there's a lot of debate about what 41 00:02:34,764 --> 00:02:39,204 Speaker 2: type of political citizen Charlie Kirk was. But but still, 42 00:02:39,684 --> 00:02:41,524 Speaker 2: when somebody is assassinate and I mean, you know, I 43 00:02:41,684 --> 00:02:45,444 Speaker 2: spoke at a in an open public forum in ames Ioweat. 44 00:02:45,444 --> 00:02:50,204 Speaker 2: I was at university two days after Kirk was killed, 45 00:02:50,524 --> 00:02:54,244 Speaker 2: So I mean, it's not not in my head to 46 00:02:54,284 --> 00:02:57,244 Speaker 2: be looking out at the crowd. And you know, when 47 00:02:57,244 --> 00:03:00,164 Speaker 2: you get the weird questions later after the show, it's like, Okay, 48 00:03:00,164 --> 00:03:02,044 Speaker 2: what's going on here? And you know, I mean, I 49 00:03:02,084 --> 00:03:05,484 Speaker 2: don't know. I've certainly gotten death threats before. But but 50 00:03:07,084 --> 00:03:09,084 Speaker 2: I mean, Charlie Kirk is also a little bit hard 51 00:03:09,204 --> 00:03:12,284 Speaker 2: to characterize, right. I was struggling with whether to call 52 00:03:12,364 --> 00:03:18,524 Speaker 2: him an activist or an organizer or a provocateur, or 53 00:03:18,564 --> 00:03:25,204 Speaker 2: an intellectual or a media personality, right or what exactly. 54 00:03:25,284 --> 00:03:28,764 Speaker 2: I'm not sure it is actually a perfectly comparable figure 55 00:03:29,644 --> 00:03:32,044 Speaker 2: on the left, because the left and right are asymmetric, 56 00:03:32,124 --> 00:03:36,244 Speaker 2: but like someone who was very influential right, who kind 57 00:03:36,284 --> 00:03:41,004 Speaker 2: of like bridged the gap between when he was friends 58 00:03:41,404 --> 00:03:43,484 Speaker 2: I think, just not friendly, but I think Trump would 59 00:03:43,484 --> 00:03:46,644 Speaker 2: call him a friend with Trump himself right, and had 60 00:03:46,724 --> 00:03:49,164 Speaker 2: like a quite large audience. 61 00:03:49,444 --> 00:03:52,564 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think whatever we call him, Nate. What I 62 00:03:52,564 --> 00:03:55,524 Speaker 1: would like to stress is he was someone who exercised 63 00:03:55,564 --> 00:04:00,924 Speaker 1: his First Amendment right incredibly well, eloquently and freely, as 64 00:04:00,964 --> 00:04:03,204 Speaker 1: he should have been able to do. And I do 65 00:04:03,364 --> 00:04:07,404 Speaker 1: want to stress a truly important point, which is that 66 00:04:07,924 --> 00:04:11,324 Speaker 1: we can't conflate speech violence right like people love to 67 00:04:11,324 --> 00:04:14,724 Speaker 1: say that, oh, speech can be violence. No violence is violence. 68 00:04:15,004 --> 00:04:17,164 Speaker 1: Whether or not you agree with Charlie Kirk or you 69 00:04:17,244 --> 00:04:20,284 Speaker 1: disagree with him, he was practicing free speech. He was 70 00:04:20,364 --> 00:04:23,404 Speaker 1: engaging in debate. And that's something that you know, we 71 00:04:23,444 --> 00:04:25,604 Speaker 1: should be doing in a democracy, right. We should be 72 00:04:25,684 --> 00:04:28,604 Speaker 1: talking to people we agree with, we should be talking 73 00:04:28,604 --> 00:04:32,044 Speaker 1: to people we disagree with, we should be having conversations. 74 00:04:32,164 --> 00:04:36,644 Speaker 1: That's the backbone of critical thinking, that's the backbone of progress, 75 00:04:36,684 --> 00:04:41,324 Speaker 1: that's a backbone of society. And the fact that someone 76 00:04:41,404 --> 00:04:46,044 Speaker 1: can be assassinated for exercising free speech is something that 77 00:04:46,084 --> 00:04:49,244 Speaker 1: should absolutely never happen. And as you say, nay, you 78 00:04:49,324 --> 00:04:52,964 Speaker 1: were doing an event right afterwards, and it definitely I 79 00:04:52,964 --> 00:04:55,644 Speaker 1: think as someone you know we both do public events, 80 00:04:55,684 --> 00:04:59,724 Speaker 1: we both do public speaking, I think it changes your 81 00:04:59,924 --> 00:05:04,364 Speaker 1: kind of risk calculus, risk framing when you see, oh 82 00:05:04,404 --> 00:05:06,324 Speaker 1: my god, have we gotten to the point in a 83 00:05:06,324 --> 00:05:09,804 Speaker 1: society where people think that this is okay, that this 84 00:05:09,884 --> 00:05:13,204 Speaker 1: is a legitimate response, that if I disagree with someone, 85 00:05:13,684 --> 00:05:15,204 Speaker 1: you know, violence is okay. 86 00:05:15,684 --> 00:05:20,484 Speaker 2: Yeah, And there's also a chilling absolutely right, huge chilling 87 00:05:20,724 --> 00:05:23,524 Speaker 2: people with what they say and also whether they get invited. 88 00:05:23,564 --> 00:05:27,924 Speaker 2: I mean, one case with some questionable similarities, but Sam 89 00:05:27,924 --> 00:05:30,324 Speaker 2: and Reshti was attacked at a big festival in rural 90 00:05:30,364 --> 00:05:33,124 Speaker 2: New York a couple of years ago. There was a 91 00:05:33,124 --> 00:05:36,644 Speaker 2: flat blaw against him, and I suppose that was of 92 00:05:36,644 --> 00:05:39,084 Speaker 2: a chilly partly fulfilled, right, and. 93 00:05:39,084 --> 00:05:41,324 Speaker 1: He almost died. By the way, he was incredibly lucky 94 00:05:41,364 --> 00:05:43,484 Speaker 1: to survive. People thought he was going to die. He 95 00:05:43,564 --> 00:05:45,764 Speaker 1: has lost vision and what I it was. You know, 96 00:05:45,804 --> 00:05:47,964 Speaker 1: it was a very very close call, but that could 97 00:05:48,004 --> 00:05:49,324 Speaker 1: have very easily gone the other way. 98 00:05:49,524 --> 00:05:52,884 Speaker 2: But you know, part of the joy, I guess of 99 00:05:52,964 --> 00:05:56,164 Speaker 2: doing an event in a community, particularly a smaller community, 100 00:05:56,244 --> 00:05:58,244 Speaker 2: is that the doors are open, right, you know, I 101 00:05:58,484 --> 00:06:01,044 Speaker 2: have have you been to a political convention like the 102 00:06:01,084 --> 00:06:02,764 Speaker 2: Democratic Republican convention before? 103 00:06:03,404 --> 00:06:04,204 Speaker 1: I never have, No. 104 00:06:05,004 --> 00:06:10,124 Speaker 2: I mean, the security is incredible, Like it takes an 105 00:06:10,124 --> 00:06:12,044 Speaker 2: hour to get in there, it takes twenty minutes to 106 00:06:12,044 --> 00:06:15,964 Speaker 2: get out of there, right there is it's very cumbersome 107 00:06:16,124 --> 00:06:19,204 Speaker 2: and in some ways it's like not very conducive to 108 00:06:20,804 --> 00:06:23,644 Speaker 2: political protests or political speech, right, And of course parties 109 00:06:23,644 --> 00:06:27,964 Speaker 2: that want to suppress political protests often use threats of 110 00:06:28,084 --> 00:06:30,244 Speaker 2: violence as an excuse to say, Okay, we don't want 111 00:06:30,244 --> 00:06:34,244 Speaker 2: you people protesting about Gaza or Bernie Sanders or whatever 112 00:06:34,324 --> 00:06:36,284 Speaker 2: else in the convention halls, so we can't let you 113 00:06:36,324 --> 00:06:42,884 Speaker 2: in for security reasons. But yeah, I mean, look, in 114 00:06:42,884 --> 00:06:47,844 Speaker 2: some ways, there's not that much to say about if 115 00:06:47,844 --> 00:06:52,084 Speaker 2: you don't know him, about Charlie Kirk, the you know 116 00:06:52,124 --> 00:06:54,164 Speaker 2: what I mean, Like I don't there's this whole game 117 00:06:54,564 --> 00:07:00,884 Speaker 2: about like using this as a positioning exercise for where 118 00:07:00,924 --> 00:07:05,404 Speaker 2: people fit into the discourse. And I don't know. It's 119 00:07:06,244 --> 00:07:08,364 Speaker 2: I was fucking shot like on a university. Get this 120 00:07:08,524 --> 00:07:11,324 Speaker 2: in cold blood, right, It's like you know, I mean, 121 00:07:11,484 --> 00:07:13,604 Speaker 2: I you know, no one even has the pretense anymore 122 00:07:13,724 --> 00:07:18,204 Speaker 2: of Oh, let's quote unquote not politicize this. And by definition, 123 00:07:18,884 --> 00:07:21,164 Speaker 2: although there's a little bit of ambiguity still, and like 124 00:07:21,204 --> 00:07:24,004 Speaker 2: the shooter's motivations, I wouldn't say that much necessarily, but 125 00:07:24,084 --> 00:07:28,244 Speaker 2: some right, by definition, and an assassination is a a 126 00:07:28,324 --> 00:07:34,604 Speaker 2: political act, right, And you know, I think this is 127 00:07:34,604 --> 00:07:37,244 Speaker 2: becoming more common. There's something to beat about that fact, right, 128 00:07:37,284 --> 00:07:39,204 Speaker 2: But like, you know, I don't know. I mean, it 129 00:07:39,244 --> 00:07:46,204 Speaker 2: was just last year when when Trump cat shot and 130 00:07:46,244 --> 00:07:47,684 Speaker 2: I'm going to be a little joking about it because 131 00:07:47,684 --> 00:07:49,604 Speaker 2: he survived, and that was kind of the mood about it, right, 132 00:07:49,604 --> 00:07:51,404 Speaker 2: he had that that, you know, I had just busted 133 00:07:51,444 --> 00:07:54,924 Speaker 2: out of a tournament poker tournament Balted's poker. I'm like, Maria, 134 00:07:54,924 --> 00:07:57,244 Speaker 2: I won't see you for dinner because I busted out, 135 00:07:57,284 --> 00:07:59,604 Speaker 2: and I think somebody just shut Trump. But immediately it 136 00:07:59,644 --> 00:08:03,364 Speaker 2: was clear that Trump hadn't survived and had this triumphant moment, 137 00:08:03,444 --> 00:08:05,044 Speaker 2: and so it was almost you know, I was kind 138 00:08:05,084 --> 00:08:07,004 Speaker 2: of out wandering around on the strip getting a sad 139 00:08:07,004 --> 00:08:09,484 Speaker 2: little dinner with the other people who busted out, and 140 00:08:09,524 --> 00:08:12,164 Speaker 2: people there were kind of excited, right, It's like, oh, 141 00:08:12,164 --> 00:08:15,804 Speaker 2: that's cool, he survived, right, And that kind of detracted 142 00:08:15,804 --> 00:08:19,644 Speaker 2: from the magnitude of what that event had been and 143 00:08:19,684 --> 00:08:22,084 Speaker 2: how scary that could have been. And I think you're 144 00:08:24,044 --> 00:08:28,444 Speaker 2: you're seeing now, yeah, what happens when you create somebody 145 00:08:28,444 --> 00:08:30,164 Speaker 2: who can be a martyr potentially. 146 00:08:30,724 --> 00:08:32,684 Speaker 1: And I'll go a step further, and Nate, I think 147 00:08:32,724 --> 00:08:38,284 Speaker 1: that that was a precursor to another moment that people 148 00:08:38,564 --> 00:08:42,124 Speaker 1: made light of, which was the December assassination of Brian Thompson, 149 00:08:42,164 --> 00:08:45,804 Speaker 1: the CEO of United Healthcare. Right where people actually made 150 00:08:46,124 --> 00:08:51,764 Speaker 1: Luigima Joon into kind of this hero, right folk hero, like, yes, 151 00:08:51,804 --> 00:08:54,884 Speaker 1: you went after the bad guys, and we talked about 152 00:08:54,924 --> 00:08:57,484 Speaker 1: it on the pod back then, where like, holy shit, guys, 153 00:08:57,524 --> 00:09:00,164 Speaker 1: this is a horrible reaction, like this is not what 154 00:09:00,204 --> 00:09:02,004 Speaker 1: you should be I don't care what you think about 155 00:09:02,364 --> 00:09:05,524 Speaker 1: you know, healthcare in America or what you think about 156 00:09:05,604 --> 00:09:08,284 Speaker 1: United or all of these things. This is not the answer, 157 00:09:08,644 --> 00:09:11,124 Speaker 1: right violence that like, this is not okay, This is 158 00:09:11,284 --> 00:09:14,684 Speaker 1: never something to be celebrated, and yet people were celebrating it. 159 00:09:14,924 --> 00:09:17,004 Speaker 1: So I think that we've seen kind of this progression 160 00:09:17,444 --> 00:09:19,804 Speaker 1: that in some ways has led us to this moment 161 00:09:19,844 --> 00:09:22,284 Speaker 1: where you think, oh, you know, first of all, this 162 00:09:22,364 --> 00:09:24,884 Speaker 1: is the right way to solve it, and secondly, like 163 00:09:24,924 --> 00:09:27,764 Speaker 1: I could even be a hero right for killing someone 164 00:09:27,804 --> 00:09:30,284 Speaker 1: who you know, people disagreed with or thought they did 165 00:09:30,284 --> 00:09:33,684 Speaker 1: something bad. And it's just so profoundly fucked up to 166 00:09:34,124 --> 00:09:37,444 Speaker 1: think in those terms and to think that this is 167 00:09:37,644 --> 00:09:40,484 Speaker 1: just something you do. Right. This is why we have society, 168 00:09:40,524 --> 00:09:42,084 Speaker 1: This is why we have laws, This is why we 169 00:09:42,164 --> 00:09:45,484 Speaker 1: have norms of behavior, This is why we live, you know, 170 00:09:45,524 --> 00:09:48,924 Speaker 1: in a civilization and not in the wild West, where 171 00:09:48,964 --> 00:09:51,044 Speaker 1: the way that you solve things was to duke it 172 00:09:51,044 --> 00:09:51,724 Speaker 1: out with guns. 173 00:09:52,964 --> 00:09:55,844 Speaker 2: Yeah, look the way I kind of look at civilization. 174 00:09:56,044 --> 00:09:58,284 Speaker 2: Like again, it's amazing that you're in New York and 175 00:09:58,284 --> 00:10:00,124 Speaker 2: it's a city of eight billion people and everyone has 176 00:10:00,124 --> 00:10:01,724 Speaker 2: different objectives on their mind, and there is lots of 177 00:10:01,724 --> 00:10:04,404 Speaker 2: petty crime from day to day and other things, and 178 00:10:04,484 --> 00:10:08,724 Speaker 2: yet the kind of center holds, right, But the center 179 00:10:08,724 --> 00:10:11,084 Speaker 2: holds I think some narrowly right where you have a 180 00:10:11,124 --> 00:10:14,004 Speaker 2: lot of I'm going to confuse centrifugal and centripetal. Right, 181 00:10:14,084 --> 00:10:18,084 Speaker 2: you have a lot of forces pulling out into chaos. 182 00:10:18,204 --> 00:10:23,924 Speaker 2: Then you have forces holding people together, including policing, including 183 00:10:24,884 --> 00:10:28,964 Speaker 2: common decency, including common sense, right, and kind of everything 184 00:10:29,044 --> 00:10:31,324 Speaker 2: in between, and like it might not take that much 185 00:10:31,364 --> 00:10:33,804 Speaker 2: for things to fall out of equilibrium. And maybe and 186 00:10:33,844 --> 00:10:36,524 Speaker 2: maybe social media is that. And you know, I don't 187 00:10:36,564 --> 00:10:41,764 Speaker 2: think things have calmed down very much on Twitter, right, 188 00:10:44,804 --> 00:10:48,604 Speaker 2: I've covered a lot of news stories and like five 189 00:10:48,684 --> 00:10:50,764 Speaker 2: days no matter what the story is of things not 190 00:10:50,804 --> 00:10:55,444 Speaker 2: calming down, it's a little unusual, right. You know, you 191 00:10:55,484 --> 00:11:02,244 Speaker 2: also have people who are getting fired for saying thoughtless 192 00:11:02,324 --> 00:11:04,524 Speaker 2: or I was gonna say un pc which is I mean, 193 00:11:04,564 --> 00:11:06,444 Speaker 2: I think it is kind of like a political correctness issue, 194 00:11:06,524 --> 00:11:09,684 Speaker 2: right if people fired for saying things that in some 195 00:11:09,764 --> 00:11:13,804 Speaker 2: cases are I think stupid and tone. 196 00:11:13,564 --> 00:11:18,324 Speaker 1: Deaf, but like still a fireable effects, like yeah, look in. 197 00:11:18,324 --> 00:11:22,244 Speaker 2: Some of them. You know, Matthew Dowd is my former 198 00:11:23,164 --> 00:11:26,404 Speaker 2: ABC News colleague, and I think Matthew Dowd's a lowheart 199 00:11:26,404 --> 00:11:28,324 Speaker 2: and an idiot, But I think you should be fired 200 00:11:28,364 --> 00:11:30,404 Speaker 2: for being a low heart and an idiot in general 201 00:11:30,444 --> 00:11:33,204 Speaker 2: about almost every issue that he weighs in on, and 202 00:11:33,524 --> 00:11:36,244 Speaker 2: not on a short preparation TV hit when it wasn't 203 00:11:36,244 --> 00:11:39,884 Speaker 2: clear what had happened about saying Okay, well, this guy 204 00:11:40,004 --> 00:11:42,524 Speaker 2: was kind of encouraging what I mean. You know, I 205 00:11:42,564 --> 00:11:44,644 Speaker 2: don't think his comment is correct, but it's also like 206 00:11:46,084 --> 00:11:50,324 Speaker 2: it's within the realm of free speech that I think 207 00:11:50,404 --> 00:11:53,484 Speaker 2: Charlie Kirk is relatively not hit theocritical about free speech 208 00:11:53,524 --> 00:11:58,164 Speaker 2: and would have wanted right to support absolutely absolutely. 209 00:11:58,204 --> 00:11:59,924 Speaker 1: And this goes back to what you said at the 210 00:11:59,924 --> 00:12:02,884 Speaker 1: beginning night, which I think we should just stress a 211 00:12:02,884 --> 00:12:05,804 Speaker 1: little bit more, which is the chilling effect of this right, 212 00:12:06,124 --> 00:12:08,604 Speaker 1: the effect that this has on free speech more broadly, 213 00:12:08,884 --> 00:12:11,324 Speaker 1: on what both feel like they can and can't say, 214 00:12:12,124 --> 00:12:15,004 Speaker 1: and the fact that there are now these like very 215 00:12:15,044 --> 00:12:18,884 Speaker 1: strong repercussions for rights that you should have right and 216 00:12:18,964 --> 00:12:21,764 Speaker 1: even going a step further. So there was a piece 217 00:12:21,804 --> 00:12:24,964 Speaker 1: in New York Times that pointed out that defend Secretary 218 00:12:25,004 --> 00:12:28,924 Speaker 1: Pete Hegseth had said that the agency was monitoring and 219 00:12:28,964 --> 00:12:33,244 Speaker 1: tracking any military personnel who celebrated or mocked Kirk's death, 220 00:12:33,684 --> 00:12:37,364 Speaker 1: and Christopher Landau, the Deputy Secretary of State, said that 221 00:12:37,444 --> 00:12:40,844 Speaker 1: the administration would be stripping visas from any individuals who 222 00:12:40,884 --> 00:12:45,244 Speaker 1: celebrated Kirk's death. So you know, this is like it's 223 00:12:45,324 --> 00:12:48,564 Speaker 1: going further and further right from oh, you might be 224 00:12:48,644 --> 00:12:52,004 Speaker 1: fired to you might have your visa taken away, and 225 00:12:52,044 --> 00:12:55,124 Speaker 1: I've I mean, that's frightening. Everything about this moment is frightening. 226 00:12:55,364 --> 00:12:57,444 Speaker 1: I want to also point out something that you mentioned 227 00:12:57,484 --> 00:12:59,964 Speaker 1: about New York and like the fact that New York 228 00:13:00,044 --> 00:13:03,244 Speaker 1: functions and sometimes you think, oh, how precarious is that? 229 00:13:03,564 --> 00:13:06,204 Speaker 1: There's actually a lot of work in psychology that shows 230 00:13:06,204 --> 00:13:09,804 Speaker 1: that it is quite precarious. Right, Social norms are per careus, 231 00:13:10,164 --> 00:13:14,324 Speaker 1: that norms of behavior are precarious, that we are often 232 00:13:14,764 --> 00:13:17,884 Speaker 1: kind of walking on a razor's edge where it can 233 00:13:17,924 --> 00:13:21,124 Speaker 1: go in one direction or another, depending on what prominent 234 00:13:21,164 --> 00:13:24,204 Speaker 1: people say, you know, depending on what people think that 235 00:13:24,284 --> 00:13:27,964 Speaker 1: these things do shift and can shift very rapidly. So 236 00:13:27,964 --> 00:13:30,484 Speaker 1: I think we should just remember that, you know, social 237 00:13:30,484 --> 00:13:33,164 Speaker 1: norms that we take for granted, we shouldn't take for 238 00:13:33,204 --> 00:13:36,884 Speaker 1: granted they they do need to be protected, or we 239 00:13:36,964 --> 00:13:39,684 Speaker 1: might end up devolving, which is what I think we're 240 00:13:39,804 --> 00:13:58,764 Speaker 1: witnessing right now speaking about, you know, the increased political 241 00:13:58,884 --> 00:14:02,004 Speaker 1: violence security, I think this is a good moment to 242 00:14:02,564 --> 00:14:06,404 Speaker 1: shift gears a little bit and talk about the potential 243 00:14:06,484 --> 00:14:09,644 Speaker 1: government shut down and funding because one of the things 244 00:14:09,644 --> 00:14:12,324 Speaker 1: that is happening is that the White House has requested 245 00:14:12,604 --> 00:14:15,764 Speaker 1: fifty eight million dollars in security funding for both the 246 00:14:15,804 --> 00:14:21,764 Speaker 1: executive and the judicial branches after Charlie Kirk's assassination. And 247 00:14:22,244 --> 00:14:29,164 Speaker 1: this is basically they're trying to insert this as part 248 00:14:29,164 --> 00:14:32,844 Speaker 1: of the stop gap bill to prevent a government shutdown, 249 00:14:33,204 --> 00:14:36,684 Speaker 1: which is looming on October first. So this is clearly 250 00:14:36,724 --> 00:14:39,724 Speaker 1: something that is being used. I don't know if it's 251 00:14:39,764 --> 00:14:42,644 Speaker 1: being used as a pretext or if this is actually 252 00:14:43,244 --> 00:14:46,964 Speaker 1: something that they should be doing, but it's interesting that 253 00:14:47,284 --> 00:14:51,964 Speaker 1: this is making its way from something that happened last 254 00:14:52,004 --> 00:14:56,244 Speaker 1: week to something that is a key provision in a 255 00:14:56,284 --> 00:14:59,484 Speaker 1: bill that can prevent the shutting down of the government, which, 256 00:14:59,524 --> 00:15:02,164 Speaker 1: by the way, night, I feel like we have an 257 00:15:02,204 --> 00:15:06,204 Speaker 1: impending government shutdown. So frequently these days. 258 00:15:05,964 --> 00:15:08,164 Speaker 2: Should I get a quick background or for I have 259 00:15:08,204 --> 00:15:10,924 Speaker 2: a story place down? So like in the spring, was 260 00:15:10,964 --> 00:15:15,444 Speaker 2: it March or whatever? In the spring, Republicans had to 261 00:15:15,444 --> 00:15:19,964 Speaker 2: pass a continuing resolution to keep the government open. People 262 00:15:19,964 --> 00:15:21,684 Speaker 2: thought that bill might get stimied in the House with 263 00:15:21,764 --> 00:15:24,484 Speaker 2: the gup he has a very narrow majority, and they 264 00:15:24,524 --> 00:15:26,684 Speaker 2: passed it party line vote, I think, with one exception 265 00:15:26,844 --> 00:15:29,364 Speaker 2: on each side. It went to the Senate, where for 266 00:15:29,524 --> 00:15:32,804 Speaker 2: that type of legislation the filibuster is still under the 267 00:15:32,884 --> 00:15:37,004 Speaker 2: rules of the Senate. So ultimately Democrats debated to shut down. 268 00:15:37,084 --> 00:15:40,364 Speaker 2: Public commentators debate a shutdown. I actually wrote a post 269 00:15:40,404 --> 00:15:42,364 Speaker 2: I guess it was after they didn't, after Schumer had 270 00:15:42,404 --> 00:15:44,844 Speaker 2: conceded it was about to concede, saying Democrats should have 271 00:15:44,924 --> 00:15:46,724 Speaker 2: had a shutdown. I thought it was good opportunity. I 272 00:15:46,724 --> 00:15:49,124 Speaker 2: thought they could highlight dough spending cuts and take advantage 273 00:15:49,124 --> 00:15:53,564 Speaker 2: of Elam Musk's on popularity. But Schumer and what was it, 274 00:15:53,684 --> 00:15:56,684 Speaker 2: you know, seven or so other Democrats voted for cloture 275 00:15:56,724 --> 00:16:00,484 Speaker 2: to and a filibuster, and so therefore the bill passed. However, 276 00:16:00,604 --> 00:16:03,604 Speaker 2: that resolution was for six months, and it expires at 277 00:16:03,604 --> 00:16:06,004 Speaker 2: the end of this month, September. Say, thirty first, I 278 00:16:06,044 --> 00:16:07,484 Speaker 2: think this how many days this is? Had? 279 00:16:07,644 --> 00:16:07,684 Speaker 1: Have? 280 00:16:08,284 --> 00:16:11,484 Speaker 2: Thirty September thirtieth. 281 00:16:11,804 --> 00:16:13,924 Speaker 1: I remember night. I think I told you about my 282 00:16:14,044 --> 00:16:17,444 Speaker 1: little uh the little thing that you can use. 283 00:16:17,524 --> 00:16:19,964 Speaker 2: I know, yeah, you know. September feels like a thirty 284 00:16:20,044 --> 00:16:22,844 Speaker 2: one though, right, it's a pretty fucking important month. September 285 00:16:23,404 --> 00:16:24,244 Speaker 2: might be the best month. 286 00:16:24,364 --> 00:16:26,564 Speaker 1: It is an important month. It's such a great weather month, 287 00:16:26,644 --> 00:16:29,004 Speaker 1: back to school month. I love September. But it's a 288 00:16:29,084 --> 00:16:33,004 Speaker 1: thirty day month. Unfortunately, good things never last night, good things. 289 00:16:33,004 --> 00:16:38,964 Speaker 2: Never last Okay, uh, sorry I lost Okay, So anyway, 290 00:16:39,044 --> 00:16:41,764 Speaker 2: this time though, it's Democrats October one. 291 00:16:41,964 --> 00:16:44,084 Speaker 1: October one is when the government would shut down. 292 00:16:44,604 --> 00:16:47,204 Speaker 2: This time though, it's Democrats who seem to want to 293 00:16:47,244 --> 00:16:50,724 Speaker 2: shut down. So Chuck Schumer indicated late last week that 294 00:16:52,044 --> 00:16:55,884 Speaker 2: he had canvassed his caucus and they are inclined. 295 00:16:55,964 --> 00:17:01,884 Speaker 1: That sounds really inappropriate. Well, you canvass my caucus. Sorry, sorry, guys, 296 00:17:01,924 --> 00:17:06,364 Speaker 1: this is important. Oh all right, So he'd canvassed his caucus. 297 00:17:06,124 --> 00:17:10,204 Speaker 2: Yes, and there was appetite in the credit caucus to 298 00:17:10,364 --> 00:17:16,404 Speaker 2: make demands. I suppose about healthcare, they want to extend 299 00:17:16,444 --> 00:17:20,044 Speaker 2: Obamacare subsidies in Medicaid and restore Medicaid cuts that were 300 00:17:20,044 --> 00:17:22,724 Speaker 2: made in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act not my 301 00:17:22,884 --> 00:17:25,164 Speaker 2: term for it, the official piece they have the legislation. 302 00:17:25,684 --> 00:17:29,404 Speaker 2: And meanwhile, lots of center and left of center commentators, 303 00:17:29,484 --> 00:17:33,284 Speaker 2: from as Reclined to Robert Wright to everybody else's been saying, yeah, 304 00:17:33,324 --> 00:17:37,684 Speaker 2: we need a fight. Democrats can't concede to this, although 305 00:17:37,684 --> 00:17:40,204 Speaker 2: they don't really agree on the whys or the what's 306 00:17:40,844 --> 00:17:44,244 Speaker 2: exactly right, but there's agreement that something must be done. 307 00:17:44,924 --> 00:17:47,324 Speaker 2: That Schumer was so much of a pushover last time 308 00:17:47,844 --> 00:17:49,804 Speaker 2: that this is one of the few points Democrats have leverage. 309 00:17:49,804 --> 00:17:51,124 Speaker 2: I when you want to cash that in for like 310 00:17:51,244 --> 00:17:55,444 Speaker 2: a big media moment or for actual concessions, that you 311 00:17:55,564 --> 00:17:57,004 Speaker 2: have to it's time to do something. 312 00:17:58,204 --> 00:18:00,604 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think that Schumer learned his lesson 313 00:18:00,684 --> 00:18:02,484 Speaker 1: a little too well from the last time, when he 314 00:18:02,604 --> 00:18:06,724 Speaker 1: got such horrible coverage, such horrible press for making the 315 00:18:06,844 --> 00:18:09,324 Speaker 1: deal right where he said, look, I'm just I'm doing 316 00:18:09,564 --> 00:18:12,964 Speaker 1: what needs to be done, and he came off looking terrible. 317 00:18:13,084 --> 00:18:15,124 Speaker 1: But I think that the other strategic moment, and I'm 318 00:18:15,164 --> 00:18:17,444 Speaker 1: not writing a piece about this night, so please, you know, 319 00:18:17,524 --> 00:18:21,204 Speaker 1: feel free to chime in, is I think that Democrats 320 00:18:21,244 --> 00:18:24,324 Speaker 1: are seeing this as a moment where they can really 321 00:18:25,324 --> 00:18:30,084 Speaker 1: start creating kind of new messaging for mid term elections 322 00:18:30,404 --> 00:18:34,404 Speaker 1: and for you know, for presidential elections moving forward, to 323 00:18:34,484 --> 00:18:36,804 Speaker 1: say that, you know, we are the true party that's 324 00:18:36,844 --> 00:18:39,604 Speaker 1: protecting the people. Right. The reason that we're doing this 325 00:18:39,844 --> 00:18:43,324 Speaker 1: is we want you to have your healthcare, your medicare. 326 00:18:43,404 --> 00:18:45,044 Speaker 1: We want it not to be cut. You know, we 327 00:18:45,244 --> 00:18:48,524 Speaker 1: want all of these benefits that are being lost with 328 00:18:48,644 --> 00:18:51,604 Speaker 1: rural communities for the working man of America. We want 329 00:18:51,644 --> 00:18:53,644 Speaker 1: to protect this and that's what we're trying to fight for. 330 00:18:54,244 --> 00:18:56,204 Speaker 1: And I think that's also part of the messaging and 331 00:18:56,284 --> 00:18:58,364 Speaker 1: part of the things that they are trying to make 332 00:18:58,404 --> 00:19:02,724 Speaker 1: sure get changed in the reconciliation before the bill moves forward. 333 00:19:03,644 --> 00:19:05,724 Speaker 2: I mean, there are different theories, right, I mean, look, 334 00:19:05,804 --> 00:19:07,684 Speaker 2: partly it's like are yousing there with like the chest 335 00:19:07,764 --> 00:19:11,204 Speaker 2: tern slugs zugs wing. I don't know how to say it, 336 00:19:11,284 --> 00:19:12,484 Speaker 2: and yeah, I. 337 00:19:12,604 --> 00:19:18,844 Speaker 1: Have read it, but let's explain it. Because my familiarity 338 00:19:18,964 --> 00:19:21,684 Speaker 1: is very passing, to the point where I too, Nate, 339 00:19:21,804 --> 00:19:22,964 Speaker 1: do not know how to pronounce it. 340 00:19:22,964 --> 00:19:26,924 Speaker 2: It's a situation where every move you make is worse 341 00:19:27,044 --> 00:19:30,564 Speaker 2: than no move, right, that you would prefer that it 342 00:19:30,684 --> 00:19:34,724 Speaker 2: was your opponent's turn. And like so, like let's say 343 00:19:34,924 --> 00:19:39,564 Speaker 2: Democrats supplied the votes for the Continuing Resolution, I mean, 344 00:19:40,684 --> 00:19:44,164 Speaker 2: you know, and try to de escalate this. I mean 345 00:19:44,684 --> 00:19:47,044 Speaker 2: you know, I mean they would look like pushovers. Schumer 346 00:19:47,044 --> 00:19:49,284 Speaker 2: in particular. I mean, first of all, he is up 347 00:19:49,324 --> 00:19:52,164 Speaker 2: for reelection, not next year, but in twenty twenty eight. 348 00:19:52,844 --> 00:19:54,404 Speaker 2: You have a lot of people coming after Schumer. Right, 349 00:19:54,444 --> 00:19:58,404 Speaker 2: there are lots of you know, to state obvious names, 350 00:19:58,444 --> 00:20:01,924 Speaker 2: AOC she doesn't run for president, for example, or Zaren 351 00:20:02,404 --> 00:20:05,084 Speaker 2: who knows, right, can't be president because he was born 352 00:20:05,164 --> 00:20:06,484 Speaker 2: U gone it, but he could run for Senate, right, 353 00:20:06,524 --> 00:20:12,164 Speaker 2: But a lot of talented and all the MSNBC loving Democrats. Right, 354 00:20:12,204 --> 00:20:14,124 Speaker 2: But there's gonna be a lot of demand for Chuck 355 00:20:14,164 --> 00:20:19,364 Speaker 2: Schumer's seat, right, and as well as if he survives electorally, 356 00:20:19,844 --> 00:20:22,404 Speaker 2: then maybe his role as majority leader and so he 357 00:20:22,524 --> 00:20:26,204 Speaker 2: kind of I think has to do something right. And 358 00:20:26,284 --> 00:20:30,164 Speaker 2: the kind of Ezra Cline argument is that if you 359 00:20:30,364 --> 00:20:34,484 Speaker 2: supply votes for this continuing resolution. Are you not tacitly 360 00:20:34,804 --> 00:20:40,644 Speaker 2: endorsing this government that you say is authoritarian and acting 361 00:20:40,724 --> 00:20:44,284 Speaker 2: in bad faith and corrupt even before you get to 362 00:20:44,364 --> 00:20:48,364 Speaker 2: the fact that they are evscerating a lot of priorities 363 00:20:48,404 --> 00:20:53,004 Speaker 2: that Democrats hold deer and I kind of buy that. 364 00:20:53,364 --> 00:20:55,844 Speaker 2: I kind of buy that as a default in politics, 365 00:20:55,924 --> 00:20:58,884 Speaker 2: that doing the thing that you believe in and or 366 00:20:59,164 --> 00:21:02,844 Speaker 2: is consistent with your overall messaging. Right. I think that's worthwhile, 367 00:21:03,004 --> 00:21:06,724 Speaker 2: and we've seen I think repeatedly that like Democrats, sometimes 368 00:21:06,884 --> 00:21:09,324 Speaker 2: the rhetoric exceeds that they're actually willing to do. Right. 369 00:21:09,444 --> 00:21:11,004 Speaker 2: I think we've talked about so many times, don't have 370 00:21:11,004 --> 00:21:12,324 Speaker 2: to draw on it anymore. I think if they have 371 00:21:12,404 --> 00:21:17,484 Speaker 2: really regarded Trump two point zero was an essential threat, 372 00:21:17,524 --> 00:21:21,364 Speaker 2: they might have thought more carefully about about how fit 373 00:21:21,444 --> 00:21:23,004 Speaker 2: Biden was to run for a second term. They might 374 00:21:23,004 --> 00:21:24,684 Speaker 2: have thought more carefully about whe Kamala Harris was the 375 00:21:24,764 --> 00:21:27,884 Speaker 2: optimal person to replace him, and so to sound whatever, 376 00:21:28,044 --> 00:21:29,804 Speaker 2: might have thought more carefully about We've been through all 377 00:21:29,884 --> 00:21:33,044 Speaker 2: that on this program before, Right, But like you know, so, 378 00:21:33,124 --> 00:21:37,604 Speaker 2: I support the notion that like put your money where 379 00:21:37,604 --> 00:21:39,084 Speaker 2: your mouth is. On the other hand, there's like not 380 00:21:39,204 --> 00:21:42,764 Speaker 2: really a good endgame for democrats here. I don't think 381 00:21:42,804 --> 00:21:45,124 Speaker 2: it's not clear what endgame they want, right, because on 382 00:21:45,204 --> 00:21:48,364 Speaker 2: the one hand, I think that Ezra Calase is more 383 00:21:48,564 --> 00:21:52,564 Speaker 2: like we just want to have change the narrative, change 384 00:21:52,564 --> 00:21:54,524 Speaker 2: the discords. And by the way, Trumps approval rating is 385 00:21:54,604 --> 00:21:56,764 Speaker 2: not really moving very much, right, So like it's like 386 00:21:56,884 --> 00:21:59,844 Speaker 2: not like he's in some stings. It's about a net 387 00:21:59,924 --> 00:22:04,124 Speaker 2: negative seven negative eight, right, So it's like, you know whatever, 388 00:22:04,364 --> 00:22:07,964 Speaker 2: forty three percent approved, fifty one percent disapprove, somewhere in 389 00:22:08,044 --> 00:22:10,404 Speaker 2: that range, right, And it's not really moved. It has 390 00:22:10,444 --> 00:22:12,444 Speaker 2: not moved because of Jeffrey Epstein. That has not moved 391 00:22:12,444 --> 00:22:16,364 Speaker 2: because of of of whatever scandals there are. Right, we 392 00:22:16,404 --> 00:22:18,084 Speaker 2: don't have any data yet. We'll be affected by the 393 00:22:18,204 --> 00:22:21,804 Speaker 2: Charlie Kirk the first segment, right, But like it did 394 00:22:21,884 --> 00:22:25,084 Speaker 2: seem to move for tariffs about three months ago or 395 00:22:25,124 --> 00:22:27,364 Speaker 2: excuse me, six months ago during Liberation Day was a 396 00:22:27,404 --> 00:22:30,124 Speaker 2: big drop in April, and it's been steady since then. 397 00:22:30,204 --> 00:22:32,804 Speaker 2: And so like, you know, there is a notion of 398 00:22:32,884 --> 00:22:37,844 Speaker 2: increasing variants for democrats, I think, and kind of changing 399 00:22:37,884 --> 00:22:41,924 Speaker 2: the discourse, changing the dialogue. But you know, here's the issue. 400 00:22:41,924 --> 00:22:44,844 Speaker 2: I mean, if you offer a deal on healthcare, the 401 00:22:44,924 --> 00:22:46,484 Speaker 2: problem is it's kind of a deal that like might 402 00:22:46,564 --> 00:22:48,444 Speaker 2: be good for the GOP, you know what I mean, 403 00:22:48,804 --> 00:22:55,004 Speaker 2: where like all these swing state representatives might say, yeah, actually, 404 00:22:55,004 --> 00:22:59,204 Speaker 2: I'm pretty uncomfortable with these Medicaid cuts, right, and Okay, 405 00:22:59,284 --> 00:23:00,884 Speaker 2: I'll take the I'll take the deal, right. 406 00:23:03,044 --> 00:23:03,204 Speaker 1: You know. 407 00:23:03,244 --> 00:23:04,604 Speaker 2: I don't know if Trump would sign it, but. 408 00:23:04,764 --> 00:23:08,204 Speaker 1: Like now, I think I think some of the biggest 409 00:23:08,964 --> 00:23:13,044 Speaker 1: losses in medical coverage are happening in states like Arizona. 410 00:23:13,404 --> 00:23:16,564 Speaker 1: We're somewhere around like three hundred thousand people are set 411 00:23:16,604 --> 00:23:20,684 Speaker 1: to lose coverage under the big beautiful bill come October first, 412 00:23:20,724 --> 00:23:23,604 Speaker 1: of changes aren't made, and Arizona is obviously a state 413 00:23:23,644 --> 00:23:29,644 Speaker 1: that's you know, very important for Republicans, so there are 414 00:23:30,084 --> 00:23:33,004 Speaker 1: I think this is a this is an issue that 415 00:23:34,324 --> 00:23:37,804 Speaker 1: could be bipartisan in the sense that it's something that 416 00:23:37,924 --> 00:23:41,564 Speaker 1: Democrats care about, but it's actually something that can help Republicans. 417 00:23:41,604 --> 00:23:43,924 Speaker 1: And I think that if they're thinking about if the 418 00:23:44,044 --> 00:23:47,804 Speaker 1: GOP is thinking of midterm elections, right, if they're thinking about, okay, 419 00:23:47,924 --> 00:23:53,044 Speaker 1: which seats are up, then they might start realizing, hey, 420 00:23:53,284 --> 00:23:56,964 Speaker 1: like if this bill passes as is right. If these 421 00:23:57,044 --> 00:24:02,244 Speaker 1: cuts actually pass, if all of my constituents suddenly realize that, oops, 422 00:24:02,324 --> 00:24:05,764 Speaker 1: like where's my medical coverage? Like what just happened? Maybe 423 00:24:05,844 --> 00:24:08,684 Speaker 1: I'm not going to get reelected, Like maybe I'm not 424 00:24:08,804 --> 00:24:11,564 Speaker 1: going to look at as good. And you wonder why 425 00:24:11,604 --> 00:24:14,164 Speaker 1: they didn't think about this before when they were passing 426 00:24:14,244 --> 00:24:17,364 Speaker 1: the big, beautiful bill, but you'd be I've been shocked 427 00:24:17,404 --> 00:24:19,524 Speaker 1: at how many people have been like, oh, well, I 428 00:24:19,564 --> 00:24:21,204 Speaker 1: didn't really read that part of it, you know, I 429 00:24:21,244 --> 00:24:23,684 Speaker 1: didn't really I didn't really realize that that was in here. 430 00:24:24,124 --> 00:24:26,084 Speaker 1: And I'm like, wait, I'm sorry, what, Like, isn't that 431 00:24:26,164 --> 00:24:28,804 Speaker 1: your entire job? Or you have aids to do it 432 00:24:28,884 --> 00:24:30,444 Speaker 1: and to summarize it for you so that you don't 433 00:24:30,484 --> 00:24:32,644 Speaker 1: have to read it, but like, come on, like what 434 00:24:33,084 --> 00:24:33,484 Speaker 1: kind of a. 435 00:24:35,324 --> 00:24:37,204 Speaker 2: If we talked about the change to the text treatment 436 00:24:37,244 --> 00:24:38,644 Speaker 2: of gambling laws, right, that also. 437 00:24:38,444 --> 00:24:40,884 Speaker 1: Was kind of in so we actually we actually haven't 438 00:24:41,244 --> 00:24:42,364 Speaker 1: talked about that on the show. 439 00:24:43,244 --> 00:24:46,164 Speaker 2: So I think that's that's something that we call Until 440 00:24:47,204 --> 00:24:53,164 Speaker 2: gambling conductions are fully restored, I will not be there's authoritarian. 441 00:24:52,484 --> 00:25:00,084 Speaker 1: Menace and we'll be back right after this. 442 00:25:14,924 --> 00:25:16,444 Speaker 2: You know what I would do if I were shimmer, 443 00:25:16,524 --> 00:25:21,364 Speaker 2: what would you do? I would demand concessions on tariffs, 444 00:25:22,564 --> 00:25:25,404 Speaker 2: little little funky interesting more So, there are a couple 445 00:25:25,444 --> 00:25:31,204 Speaker 2: of reasons, right. One is that, I mean, look, Republicans people, 446 00:25:31,444 --> 00:25:34,044 Speaker 2: congressmen are stupid, right, so like the fact that like 447 00:25:34,124 --> 00:25:35,844 Speaker 2: this would be they're fucking stupid, Like why aren't you 448 00:25:35,884 --> 00:25:37,644 Speaker 2: going to Congress if you had, like honestly, like why 449 00:25:37,644 --> 00:25:39,444 Speaker 2: are you in Congress if you had like real talent 450 00:25:39,484 --> 00:25:42,924 Speaker 2: to contribute? I know, I guess I know some Congress 451 00:25:42,964 --> 00:25:45,124 Speaker 2: when I take I take that back. 452 00:25:45,204 --> 00:25:52,204 Speaker 1: But like Nate, Nate, Nate, okay, and my co host 453 00:25:52,324 --> 00:25:55,364 Speaker 1: has gone on the record that has say that congressmen are. 454 00:25:55,644 --> 00:26:00,684 Speaker 2: If I ever testify, no, but like I mean, okay, yeah, 455 00:26:00,804 --> 00:26:03,044 Speaker 2: just take the deal. It's a good deal. It's the 456 00:26:03,124 --> 00:26:05,244 Speaker 2: Luca Docich trade. Like, let me just take the deal. 457 00:26:05,364 --> 00:26:08,164 Speaker 2: You're gonna get something that like it will actually soft 458 00:26:08,284 --> 00:26:11,284 Speaker 2: in Trump's image and help you be re elected. Right, 459 00:26:11,324 --> 00:26:13,684 Speaker 2: And Democrats can say, oh, we held up, we were 460 00:26:13,764 --> 00:26:17,684 Speaker 2: so tough. Right, It's like, okay, deal, it's done. 461 00:26:17,724 --> 00:26:19,644 Speaker 1: But now talk about tariffs. Why do we think that 462 00:26:19,924 --> 00:26:21,604 Speaker 1: they should also be pushing for tariffs? 463 00:26:21,724 --> 00:26:23,604 Speaker 2: So for one thing, like again, I do am a 464 00:26:23,644 --> 00:26:27,084 Speaker 2: buyer of the EZRA argument that like, you might want 465 00:26:27,084 --> 00:26:29,244 Speaker 2: to pick something that is more abnormal, and the terrorists 466 00:26:29,244 --> 00:26:30,764 Speaker 2: are abnormal, both in the sense that we haven't had 467 00:26:30,804 --> 00:26:32,964 Speaker 2: these tariffs almost one hundred years and the fact that, like, 468 00:26:33,964 --> 00:26:37,644 Speaker 2: you know, you're abrogating Congress's role to regulate taxes and 469 00:26:37,724 --> 00:26:39,604 Speaker 2: collection of spending in BacT. The case will be litigated 470 00:26:39,644 --> 00:26:41,764 Speaker 2: by the Supreme Court, so it might become a point eventually. 471 00:26:41,884 --> 00:26:45,044 Speaker 2: But like, but like you know, I think that is 472 00:26:45,084 --> 00:26:47,164 Speaker 2: more of a pain point between Trump and the GOP. 473 00:26:47,844 --> 00:26:52,924 Speaker 2: I think highlighting, you know, the economic news is worthwhile 474 00:26:52,924 --> 00:26:57,284 Speaker 2: for Democrats. We've had bad jobs reports lately. We also 475 00:26:57,364 --> 00:27:01,524 Speaker 2: had a revision that covered Biden's last year and Trump's 476 00:27:02,244 --> 00:27:05,044 Speaker 2: first half year, right where like, actually we've been overestimating 477 00:27:05,044 --> 00:27:07,484 Speaker 2: the number of jobs that were created. Maybe a little 478 00:27:07,524 --> 00:27:09,884 Speaker 2: bit easier to understand now. People were fed up economy 479 00:27:09,964 --> 00:27:14,244 Speaker 2: last year. But but like, I think terrorists are a 480 00:27:14,284 --> 00:27:16,724 Speaker 2: better pain point. I think I think they're a hard 481 00:27:16,804 --> 00:27:19,644 Speaker 2: deal for the GOP to take. They're the one issue 482 00:27:19,644 --> 00:27:22,604 Speaker 2: that's improven to hurt Trump's popularity, and they get a 483 00:27:22,684 --> 00:27:26,564 Speaker 2: little bit at the lack of at the extra legs, 484 00:27:26,604 --> 00:27:30,724 Speaker 2: shall we say, constitutionality, right, not respecting traditional norms where 485 00:27:30,764 --> 00:27:32,444 Speaker 2: it's like you could have the healthcare fight with Mitt 486 00:27:32,524 --> 00:27:36,644 Speaker 2: Romney or Nikki Haley as you're as your president, right. 487 00:27:36,924 --> 00:27:39,844 Speaker 1: So you're saying that they should pick something that is 488 00:27:41,404 --> 00:27:44,644 Speaker 1: that really seems to be out of the ordinary, that 489 00:27:44,804 --> 00:27:48,484 Speaker 1: is like something that we're it's I don't know if 490 00:27:48,524 --> 00:27:50,924 Speaker 1: out of them, but like that has surpassed all of 491 00:27:51,004 --> 00:27:52,724 Speaker 1: the norms and is really. 492 00:27:52,684 --> 00:27:55,764 Speaker 2: It's it's hard because like if you laundry live, I 493 00:27:55,764 --> 00:27:57,324 Speaker 2: mean the thing, you know, a lot of things that 494 00:27:57,324 --> 00:28:03,724 Speaker 2: are out of the ordinary, are totally non germane to budgeting, 495 00:28:04,404 --> 00:28:09,564 Speaker 2: are obscure, or are unpopular, right, I mean, like you. 496 00:28:09,604 --> 00:28:12,804 Speaker 1: Know, but Tariff's is something that can be a point 497 00:28:13,084 --> 00:28:16,484 Speaker 1: around which you can actually coalesce, and it is something 498 00:28:16,564 --> 00:28:20,124 Speaker 1: that is more i wouldn't say popular, but more in 499 00:28:20,204 --> 00:28:23,884 Speaker 1: the popular mind because there are these downstream effects that 500 00:28:23,964 --> 00:28:27,804 Speaker 1: are starting to be felt by the way. We haven't 501 00:28:27,844 --> 00:28:30,684 Speaker 1: really talked about, you know, the FED that much on 502 00:28:30,804 --> 00:28:33,084 Speaker 1: the show, but this is all tied up right with 503 00:28:33,684 --> 00:28:36,964 Speaker 1: the FED rate cuts, you know what's going to be 504 00:28:37,044 --> 00:28:40,044 Speaker 1: happening there, Like this is a much broader conversation. 505 00:28:40,284 --> 00:28:42,484 Speaker 2: Yeah, And I mean, look if you had things like, Okay, well, 506 00:28:42,564 --> 00:28:47,244 Speaker 2: Trump shouldn't fire try to fire Lisa Cook, one of 507 00:28:47,284 --> 00:28:49,804 Speaker 2: the chairmen on the board of the Federal Reserve. Sure, women, right, 508 00:28:50,124 --> 00:28:52,724 Speaker 2: it seems like this mortgage stuff has been trumped up 509 00:28:53,004 --> 00:28:54,364 Speaker 2: in her case, or he shouldn't have fire to the 510 00:28:54,364 --> 00:28:57,084 Speaker 2: BLS commissiony like, those things might appeal to someone like me, 511 00:28:57,364 --> 00:29:00,524 Speaker 2: but they're pretty freaking esoteric to like the average person. 512 00:29:00,604 --> 00:29:03,564 Speaker 2: Whereas terraffs, you have a little bit of everything right. 513 00:29:03,644 --> 00:29:05,604 Speaker 2: You have a message about how the economy is not 514 00:29:05,684 --> 00:29:08,084 Speaker 2: doing very well, you have a message about like Trump 515 00:29:08,164 --> 00:29:13,364 Speaker 2: overstepping his bounds, and that still gives you a legible 516 00:29:13,484 --> 00:29:16,124 Speaker 2: cause to find this is one of the most unpopular 517 00:29:16,204 --> 00:29:16,884 Speaker 2: things that he's done. 518 00:29:17,884 --> 00:29:19,884 Speaker 1: Do you think that they would have a shot if 519 00:29:19,924 --> 00:29:22,884 Speaker 1: they actually pushed the tariff stuff? Because I think you're 520 00:29:22,924 --> 00:29:26,124 Speaker 1: absolutely right, like, this is genuinely unpopular, and before it 521 00:29:26,284 --> 00:29:29,604 Speaker 1: was passed, a lot of Republicans were like, whoa, whoa, 522 00:29:29,604 --> 00:29:31,524 Speaker 1: wo he's not actually going to do this, right, we 523 00:29:31,684 --> 00:29:34,324 Speaker 1: know that this is terrible. It's terrible economics, terrible policy, 524 00:29:34,444 --> 00:29:36,444 Speaker 1: terrible for the country, terrible for all of this. But 525 00:29:36,484 --> 00:29:40,444 Speaker 1: then everyone just completely fell in line. As with everything 526 00:29:40,564 --> 00:29:43,764 Speaker 1: basically that Trump has done and stood behind him. So 527 00:29:43,884 --> 00:29:45,844 Speaker 1: what do we do You actually think that this is 528 00:29:46,004 --> 00:29:48,164 Speaker 1: plausible that they could win on this. 529 00:29:48,644 --> 00:29:50,684 Speaker 2: Well, I'm not sure you want to win, you know 530 00:29:50,724 --> 00:29:52,564 Speaker 2: what I mean. I mean, look, at some point they 531 00:29:52,564 --> 00:29:55,444 Speaker 2: shutdown will end, right And by the way, the way 532 00:29:55,484 --> 00:29:57,484 Speaker 2: it might end Democrats be prepared for this, right is, 533 00:29:57,524 --> 00:30:02,044 Speaker 2: Republicans might say, Okay, we are going to get rid 534 00:30:02,884 --> 00:30:06,124 Speaker 2: of the filibuster for passing bugetary leixlation as they've already 535 00:30:06,124 --> 00:30:07,924 Speaker 2: gotten rid of it, or Democrats in some cases too, 536 00:30:08,124 --> 00:30:10,924 Speaker 2: for almost everything, right, I mean, just this past week, 537 00:30:11,004 --> 00:30:13,724 Speaker 2: Republicans plan to change the Senate rules to make it 538 00:30:13,804 --> 00:30:17,444 Speaker 2: easier to like nominate Trump appointees in batches, right, And 539 00:30:17,524 --> 00:30:19,964 Speaker 2: so if you're not gonna like have it for that stuff, 540 00:30:20,004 --> 00:30:21,724 Speaker 2: and I who fucking cares about the nothing the budget 541 00:30:21,724 --> 00:30:23,924 Speaker 2: stuff isn't important, but like it's such a thin ree 542 00:30:24,084 --> 00:30:27,364 Speaker 2: that like, okay, look, you have a trifecta, you run 543 00:30:27,404 --> 00:30:29,564 Speaker 2: the government, pass your fucking bill, right, you got to 544 00:30:29,644 --> 00:30:31,764 Speaker 2: change the rules. Don't respect rules in the first place, right, 545 00:30:31,924 --> 00:30:33,684 Speaker 2: who cares about the fucking filibuster? And by the way, 546 00:30:33,724 --> 00:30:35,484 Speaker 2: we're not gonna use a filibuster, We're happing to win 547 00:30:35,564 --> 00:30:37,524 Speaker 2: back a triffecta in Congress in twenty twenty eight. We're 548 00:30:37,524 --> 00:30:39,444 Speaker 2: not gonna use aucking filibuster, right, There's gonna be so 549 00:30:39,524 --> 00:30:41,084 Speaker 2: much damage that you did that we're gonna have to 550 00:30:41,324 --> 00:30:43,644 Speaker 2: have a day one agenda of getting all this stuff undone. 551 00:30:43,644 --> 00:30:46,364 Speaker 2: Now it sound like Evin Newsommer something like that, right, 552 00:30:46,444 --> 00:30:49,644 Speaker 2: But like, yeah, the endgame is that probably Republicans nuke 553 00:30:49,644 --> 00:30:55,324 Speaker 2: the filibuster and then pass their bill and Democrats have 554 00:30:55,444 --> 00:30:58,684 Speaker 2: this comprotational moment. Maybe it goes well, maybe it goes 555 00:30:58,764 --> 00:31:01,404 Speaker 2: not so well, right, but like it, you know, changes 556 00:31:01,444 --> 00:31:03,244 Speaker 2: the vibe at a time when the vibe is I 557 00:31:03,284 --> 00:31:05,204 Speaker 2: would argue, not going that great for Democrats. 558 00:31:06,244 --> 00:31:09,884 Speaker 1: So let me ask a very naive question, because I 559 00:31:09,924 --> 00:31:13,644 Speaker 1: think it's one that people kind of reflexively don't even 560 00:31:13,724 --> 00:31:16,884 Speaker 1: think to ask. Why, you know, why are we always 561 00:31:16,964 --> 00:31:20,084 Speaker 1: talking about, like trying to avoid a government shutdown? What 562 00:31:20,284 --> 00:31:24,004 Speaker 1: actually happens if this doesn't happen and the government shuts down? 563 00:31:24,084 --> 00:31:25,724 Speaker 1: How does that affect us? 564 00:31:26,004 --> 00:31:26,164 Speaker 2: Right? 565 00:31:26,604 --> 00:31:30,324 Speaker 1: Do we? How bad is it? How bad is it so? 566 00:31:30,564 --> 00:31:32,884 Speaker 2: Services that are deemed in essential can get shut down? 567 00:31:32,884 --> 00:31:35,404 Speaker 2: I mean examples people point to is national parks can 568 00:31:35,444 --> 00:31:39,764 Speaker 2: get shut down that you have less tsa staffing, for example, 569 00:31:39,844 --> 00:31:41,964 Speaker 2: government facilities of different types of clothes, certain types of 570 00:31:42,044 --> 00:31:45,004 Speaker 2: checks don't go out. I mean, now you also. 571 00:31:44,884 --> 00:31:47,324 Speaker 1: Basically the same shits that's already happening. 572 00:31:48,804 --> 00:31:52,124 Speaker 2: Why like the doge pinging it to doge, right, because 573 00:31:52,164 --> 00:31:54,764 Speaker 2: then they want to turn a bunch of stuff off 574 00:31:54,844 --> 00:31:56,484 Speaker 2: and see what happened. I guess kind of opt of 575 00:31:56,564 --> 00:31:58,044 Speaker 2: like throw a bunch of shit the well, it's like, 576 00:31:58,044 --> 00:31:59,964 Speaker 2: turn a bunch of switches off and see what breaks. 577 00:32:01,164 --> 00:32:02,924 Speaker 1: And so a lot of stuff started breaking. 578 00:32:03,124 --> 00:32:06,484 Speaker 2: Any shutdowns would have been disguised in that, you know here. 579 00:32:06,604 --> 00:32:08,524 Speaker 2: I mean, look, Trump will have a lot of power 580 00:32:08,684 --> 00:32:14,364 Speaker 2: to to determine to both interpret the rules liberally Yen 581 00:32:14,564 --> 00:32:17,244 Speaker 2: color outside the lines quite a bit, right, and I 582 00:32:17,324 --> 00:32:20,484 Speaker 2: think he will in ways that could be advantageous to him. 583 00:32:20,484 --> 00:32:21,724 Speaker 2: I mean, this is kind of one of the you know, 584 00:32:21,764 --> 00:32:24,364 Speaker 2: friend of the pod Matt Glassman wrote a post about 585 00:32:24,364 --> 00:32:25,764 Speaker 2: how actually this is probably a bad idea of the 586 00:32:25,764 --> 00:32:28,564 Speaker 2: shutdown because like, when you're not the party in power, 587 00:32:28,644 --> 00:32:30,124 Speaker 2: you don't have a lot of power, right, and like 588 00:32:30,204 --> 00:32:32,564 Speaker 2: the advantage of like you need to use the poker tern, 589 00:32:32,804 --> 00:32:35,884 Speaker 2: you're kind of always in position if you're right, you 590 00:32:36,004 --> 00:32:38,244 Speaker 2: get to see. And also this has been telegraphed, right, 591 00:32:38,724 --> 00:32:41,244 Speaker 2: you know, Republicans are aware. They can read the New 592 00:32:41,324 --> 00:32:43,204 Speaker 2: York Times too, they can read Ezra's piece, and they 593 00:32:43,244 --> 00:32:45,644 Speaker 2: can read what Chuck Schumer says to the Washington Post. 594 00:32:45,764 --> 00:32:49,964 Speaker 2: And I'm sure they've prepped messaging and a strategy and 595 00:32:50,364 --> 00:32:52,004 Speaker 2: and that makes it harder. 596 00:32:52,164 --> 00:32:55,244 Speaker 1: But like, but yeah, yeah, no, I think I think 597 00:32:55,284 --> 00:32:58,004 Speaker 1: these are all all important things to consider. I think 598 00:32:58,084 --> 00:33:00,484 Speaker 1: this is an interesting take. Let's see, let's see what 599 00:33:00,564 --> 00:33:03,364 Speaker 1: ends up happening, and if we end up using tariffs 600 00:33:03,444 --> 00:33:06,724 Speaker 1: as well. I do think that even though it's good 601 00:33:06,764 --> 00:33:10,324 Speaker 1: for Republicans, I'm glad that the Democrats are pushing for 602 00:33:10,444 --> 00:33:14,164 Speaker 1: healthcare as well, because that's also pretty damn important. But 603 00:33:14,284 --> 00:33:16,404 Speaker 1: let's get tariffs in there. I think that's a great 604 00:33:16,444 --> 00:33:22,924 Speaker 1: idea and hopefully we can avoid the more serious consequences 605 00:33:23,124 --> 00:33:26,764 Speaker 1: of a shutdown. On that note, Nate, are you are 606 00:33:26,804 --> 00:33:30,044 Speaker 1: you going to be playing any poker doing anything interesting 607 00:33:30,164 --> 00:33:32,364 Speaker 1: in those lines this week? Or are we are we 608 00:33:32,524 --> 00:33:34,124 Speaker 1: just all politics now? For now? 609 00:33:35,244 --> 00:33:39,204 Speaker 2: I think I'm coming to the napt in Vegas and November. No, 610 00:33:39,404 --> 00:33:41,764 Speaker 2: this is going to be like a I do finely. 611 00:33:41,764 --> 00:33:43,804 Speaker 2: The AMPT like a four month break in between poker 612 00:33:43,844 --> 00:33:46,164 Speaker 2: tournaments I play. I play Cash Influence twice a month. 613 00:33:46,204 --> 00:33:48,444 Speaker 2: But yeah, I'll be I'll be fresh for that, Maria, 614 00:33:48,484 --> 00:33:49,084 Speaker 2: I'll put it like that. 615 00:33:49,724 --> 00:33:52,924 Speaker 1: Yeah, I will also be fresh for the napt in November, 616 00:33:53,644 --> 00:33:55,844 Speaker 1: the Poker Stares event that I'll be playing, and we 617 00:33:56,204 --> 00:33:58,524 Speaker 1: stay tuned, guys, we might end up doing a risky 618 00:33:58,604 --> 00:34:03,684 Speaker 1: business meetup at that point, so we'll we'll let you 619 00:34:03,724 --> 00:34:04,884 Speaker 1: know if we have plans of that. 620 00:34:05,204 --> 00:34:07,924 Speaker 2: And a reminder, there will be a new episode in 621 00:34:08,004 --> 00:34:10,684 Speaker 2: the feed on Saturday. Having two episodes a week now, 622 00:34:10,764 --> 00:34:13,484 Speaker 2: and like Saturdays, I feel like Saturday is a good 623 00:34:13,564 --> 00:34:15,564 Speaker 2: day to listen to podcasts. No one has fucking episodes 624 00:34:15,564 --> 00:34:18,044 Speaker 2: on Saturdays. Right, you're jogging, you're doing a little drive 625 00:34:18,444 --> 00:34:20,644 Speaker 2: out in Hudson Valley or what else. You're gardening, Right, 626 00:34:20,684 --> 00:34:22,084 Speaker 2: you got a lot of time on your hands. No 627 00:34:22,204 --> 00:34:24,404 Speaker 2: fucking new episodes on Saturday. But we're gonna have this 628 00:34:24,564 --> 00:34:27,244 Speaker 2: episode on Saturday. It's an interview with Ellie Honig about 629 00:34:27,244 --> 00:34:29,084 Speaker 2: his new book, When You Come at the King, which 630 00:34:29,164 --> 00:34:30,884 Speaker 2: is all about special counsels and what it takes to 631 00:34:30,964 --> 00:34:32,284 Speaker 2: prosecute the president. 632 00:34:32,684 --> 00:34:34,804 Speaker 1: Yeah, and from here on out, you can expect that 633 00:34:34,884 --> 00:34:38,404 Speaker 1: double drop schedule from us every single week. So now 634 00:34:38,524 --> 00:34:41,164 Speaker 1: you know what you're going to be doing Saturday morning. 635 00:34:41,844 --> 00:34:44,484 Speaker 1: Congratulations everyone, I'm so glad. Congratulations be a part of 636 00:34:44,564 --> 00:34:54,564 Speaker 1: your routine. Let us know what you think of the show. 637 00:34:54,804 --> 00:34:58,284 Speaker 1: Reach out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot Fm. 638 00:34:59,564 --> 00:35:02,444 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova and. 639 00:35:02,604 --> 00:35:05,484 Speaker 2: By me Nate Silver. The show was a cool production 640 00:35:05,604 --> 00:35:09,164 Speaker 2: of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by 641 00:35:09,204 --> 00:35:13,444 Speaker 2: I at Carter. Our associate producer is Sonia Gerwit Lydia, 642 00:35:13,564 --> 00:35:16,444 Speaker 2: Jean Kott and Daphne Chen are our editors, and our 643 00:35:16,484 --> 00:35:20,284 Speaker 2: executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruguer. 644 00:35:21,804 --> 00:35:24,004 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate and review us 645 00:35:24,044 --> 00:35:26,684 Speaker 1: so other people can find us too, But once again, 646 00:35:26,844 --> 00:35:28,644 Speaker 1: only if you like us. We don't want those bad 647 00:35:28,684 --> 00:35:30,804 Speaker 1: reviews out there. Thanks for tuning in.