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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

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Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: As we cross into Saturday, the government set the shutdown

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Speaker 2: unless something amazing happens here, following a weekend in which

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Speaker 2: we saw more job boning, more commentary on Sunday morning television,

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Speaker 2: but no progress really in negotiations around a funding bill.

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Speaker 2: Everybody went home last Thursday and they're not going to

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Speaker 2: be back till tonight tomorrow, when things get back on track.

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Speaker 2: Interesting bit of polling coming out of Goldman Sacks a

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Speaker 2: survey from the Investment Bank. Small businesses worried about a shutdown.

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Speaker 2: Ninety one percent tell Goldman it's important to avoid a shutdown.

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Speaker 2: Seventy percent say their business would be negatively impacted. Ninety

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Speaker 2: three percent believe their revenue would take a hit, even

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Speaker 2: as lawmakers say, don't fear the shutdown. At least some

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Speaker 2: of them some troublemakers at least, according to Kevin McCarthy

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Speaker 2: in his Republican Conference. We're going to get to that

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Speaker 2: as well. But let's stick with the polling data and

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Speaker 2: a perplexed Washington over the weekend based on the latest

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Speaker 2: we heard about here on not only the Republican primary trail,

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Speaker 2: but more importantly, a potential general election matchup. New York

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Speaker 2: Times crunches them together into the headline. Polls show low

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Speaker 2: approval writings for Biden and Trump coasting in primary. That

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Speaker 2: would be fair, mister Biden faring better than mister Trump

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Speaker 2: when it comes to personal favorability. In this poll, thirty

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Speaker 2: nine percent say they have very positive or somewhat positive

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Speaker 2: opinion of him. Thirty five percent the same of Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: But it's that hypothetical matchup that freaked everybody out. In

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Speaker 2: the Washington Post ABC News poll, a ten point blowout

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Speaker 2: for Donald Trump over Joe Biden. An outlier say some

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Speaker 2: certainly Larry Sabadeow, I don't know if you saw his

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Speaker 2: take on this. We're going to get into all of

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Speaker 2: it with Eli Yoakley in just a moment. I have

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Speaker 2: to pull up the Sabaeoa cut though, because it's quite

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Speaker 2: remarkable from of course, the University of Virginia. Larry Sabadoah

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Speaker 2: tweets ignore the Washington Post ABC poll it's a ridiculous outlier.

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Speaker 2: My question, how could you even publish a poll so

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Speaker 2: absurd on its face will be a lingering embarrassment for you.

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Speaker 2: How do you really feel? Separately? NBC News out with

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Speaker 2: a poll shows President at fifty six approval, the highest

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Speaker 2: in this poll, but again, fifty six percent of voters

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Speaker 2: disapprove of his performance in the other We're going to

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Speaker 2: try to make sense of this what people actually think

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Speaker 2: of a shutdown and the impeachment proceedings they're about to

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Speaker 2: begin this week in the US House right now with

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Speaker 2: Eli Yoakley, politics analyst at Morning Consult. Eli, it's great

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Speaker 2: to have you back on Bloomberg Radio and here on

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Speaker 2: YouTube our conversation. Thanks for turning your camera on. I

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Speaker 2: hope everyone joins us on YouTube when they get a chance.

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Speaker 2: What your thought about this before we move on to

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Speaker 2: your own numbs, This idea of an outlier, This is

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Speaker 2: part of the business that you're in when you're polling

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Speaker 2: the American public. But do you think twice about publishing

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Speaker 2: something that just appears to be from another solar system?

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Speaker 3: You know, I think a lot of people like the

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Speaker 3: transparency aspect of putting out numbers. If you get them.

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Speaker 3: I think we've heard of other polsters doing this. I mean,

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Speaker 3: when you read the Washington Post piece on this, they

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Speaker 3: were pretty clear about the outlier nature of this survey.

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Speaker 3: I mean, most of the polling we've seen about this contest,

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Speaker 3: this hypothetical matchup between Donald Trump and Joe Biden has

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Speaker 3: been pretty close. Sometimes one of them has a two

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Speaker 3: or three point lead, usually within the margin of arabic

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Speaker 3: you know, here, Morning Constant, We've been tracking this every

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Speaker 3: day since early December, and the numbers just really haven't

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Speaker 3: shifted much. It's been a tight contest. A lot of

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Speaker 3: voters aren't tuned into this yet, and so you know,

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Speaker 3: I think whenever we get a September a year out

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Speaker 3: survey like this as an outlier, it might not be

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Speaker 3: time yet to light your hair on fire. Yeah, if

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Speaker 3: you're a different right.

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Speaker 2: Well, there's a lot of hair on fire though already.

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Speaker 2: And I wonder if you can just explain to our

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Speaker 2: viewers and listeners here how you get an outlier. This

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Speaker 2: has been a pretty reliable pull, it's considered high quality,

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Speaker 2: a good sample. But sometimes people tell you things I've

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Speaker 2: heard about projecting, for instance, or maybe the order of questioning.

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Speaker 2: Do you buy into any of that?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean sometimes it's just you get a weird sample,

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Speaker 3: a weird set of voters that might look on paper

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Speaker 3: like the people you're supposed to be talking about. But

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Speaker 3: art you know that in survey research science they talk

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Speaker 3: about confidence intervals. A lot of time there's a ninety

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Speaker 3: five percent confidence interval that you could repeat this over

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Speaker 3: and over again, but every once in a while there's

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Speaker 3: that five chance that the numbers are off.

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Speaker 2: About that. Well, let's talk about what you're learning. That's

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Speaker 2: why you're here, Eli, and your thoughts about this precarious

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Speaker 2: week that we are just now beginning the idea of

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Speaker 2: an impeachment inquiry. I know that you've run numbers on this,

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Speaker 2: and we're going to see the first hearing in the

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Speaker 2: US House open this week with the Oversight Committee. The chair,

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Speaker 2: Jim Comer says, it's going to be more of a

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Speaker 2: refresher to bring everybody speaking of baseline back up to

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Speaker 2: where we are. What do Americans think of this exercise?

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Speaker 3: You know, right now, the impeachment enquiry is pretty popular.

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Speaker 3: About half of voters supported, forty two percent don't support it.

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Speaker 3: A good number of Republicans Democrats think it's okay to

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Speaker 3: open this investigation. I think some of that might be,

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Speaker 3: you know, just do it to clear the air. But

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Speaker 3: there is some dissatisfaction among the President's base with him generally.

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Speaker 3: We've seen this in even some of our primary tracking,

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Speaker 3: about two and ten Democrats would support the different candidates

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Speaker 3: in the race. You know, the Democratic support for this

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Speaker 3: is much higher than the Republican support was for Trump's

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Speaker 3: impeachment back in twenty nineteen. You know, people do see

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Speaker 3: political motivation from Congress shocking, right, but it's a little

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Speaker 3: bit less than the kinds of the share is He's

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Speaker 3: is saying when it comes to Trump investigations.

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Speaker 2: Forty eight percent all voters, forty seven percent independence. That

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Speaker 2: tracks pretty closely for what it's worth here. I wonder

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Speaker 2: how these numbers might move once we get into the

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Speaker 2: process eli to people care about whether there's hard evidence

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Speaker 2: in this case, It's possible.

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Speaker 3: I mean, sometimes these we saw during the Trump impeachment investigation.

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Speaker 3: These numbers move every once in a while. But look,

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Speaker 3: the views on Joe Biden are pretty solid at this point.

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Speaker 3: They're not great, and nothing has really made them worse,

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Speaker 3: and nothing's really made them better, and so I think

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Speaker 3: that Republicans are going to see a chance to do this. Clearly,

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Speaker 3: this is something that excites their base. But you know

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Speaker 3: a lot of folks just aren't paying attention to what's

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Speaker 3: happening on Capitol Hill right now. You know, we're less

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Speaker 3: than a week from our government shutdown. In one in

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Speaker 3: five voters say they've heard a lot about this. If

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Speaker 3: folks aren't as a tune of this as people in

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Speaker 3: Washington and our.

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Speaker 2: Well, tell me more about that, because we've got lawmakers

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Speaker 2: in some cases saying that, you know, a shut down

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Speaker 2: is a good thing. People are getting used to this,

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Speaker 2: they think it's part of the legislative process. In many cases,

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Speaker 2: we're obsessed with blame game here in Washington. What have

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Speaker 2: people outside the Beltway think?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think we're much released pulling on this tomorrow,

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Speaker 3: but the electric's pretty divided on who to blame for this.

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Speaker 3: But they're just not paying attention. I mean, this is

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Speaker 3: a major major issue for the economy. As you mentioned,

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Speaker 3: a lot of business folks are very concerned about this,

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Speaker 3: but every day people just aren't really tuned in. I

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Speaker 3: think that goes that's helping the GOP obviously just given

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Speaker 3: the dysfunction that is happening in Washington, you know, out

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Speaker 3: in the country. Since twenty twenty, the share of voters

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Speaker 3: who say the GOP is competent to government has increased.

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Speaker 3: It's almost tied with Democrats right now. We got this survey,

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Speaker 3: you know, last week as this shutdown debate was you know,

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Speaker 3: taking your stage. I think that is a key piece

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Speaker 3: of evidence that folks aren't attune to this despite their

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Speaker 3: prioritization and a lot of surveys of you know, reducing

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Speaker 3: the federal deficit.

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Speaker 2: Spending time with Eli Yoakley at Morning Consult here on

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Sound On, I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. I do

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Speaker 2: want to move to the campaign trail for a moment

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Speaker 2: with you. I see your latest numbers from Morning Consult

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Speaker 2: pro Donald Trump fifty nine. Ronda Santis is still in

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Speaker 2: second place in this poll, but he's down to thirteen

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Speaker 2: percent now, Ramaswami ten and Nikki Haley six. Mike Pence

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Speaker 2: rounds things out at five percent. Nobody else would make

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Speaker 2: the debate stage from here based on this pole, Eli,

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Speaker 2: is that the way we should be viewing this debate

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Speaker 2: this week. They're out in Seeming Valley. This is going

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Speaker 2: to be the biggest collection of candidates we see from

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Speaker 2: here on out.

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Speaker 3: I think that's probably right. We're not seeing anybody. It's

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Speaker 3: that three percent threshold that the RNC is set for

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Speaker 3: this debate. So I think that stage is pretty well set.

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Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 3: The challenge here for the campaign is what is the

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Speaker 3: point of this? I mean, Donald Trump is not on stage.

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Speaker 3: He's backed by almost six to ten Republican primary voters.

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Speaker 3: Without him there, there's just not a lot of interests

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Speaker 3: among the Republican electorate. We saw Nikki Haley get a

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Speaker 3: bit of a boost after the first debate that has

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Speaker 3: sustained a bit. I think expectations are higher for her

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Speaker 3: at this point, but to what end. I mean, you're

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Speaker 3: playing over a few points here and there at this

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Speaker 3: point when it comes to the folks on stage, Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump's absence has definitely taken away a lot of attention

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Speaker 3: from some of the folks challenging him for the nomination.

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Speaker 2: So this is pretty rude of him not to attend

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Speaker 2: these debates. We've only had one of them and we're

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Speaker 2: already calling this a good idea.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, maybe I'll eat my words on Thursday morning,

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Speaker 3: when something very dramatic and interesting and a campaign shuddering

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Speaker 3: happened on Wednesday night. Possibly, But you know, I think

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Speaker 3: his play to go out to Detroit stand with some

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Speaker 3: working class voters who are a big part of his coalition.

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Speaker 3: Maybe not the rest of the Republican candidate's coalitions, but

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Speaker 3: definitely is I think is a shrewd move. It's put

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Speaker 3: Joe Biden sort of on the defense when it comes

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Speaker 3: to his handling of union issues and this core group

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Speaker 3: of voters the Democratic Party has been losing in recent years. Yeah, Trump,

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Speaker 3: if you had sixty percent, would you go up on

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Speaker 3: stage and let yourself get attacked by all these people?

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Speaker 3: I mean, it makes sense, and I think he learned

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Speaker 3: from the last one that it didn't hurt him.

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Speaker 2: He sure did learn that, and he's, I guess, holding

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Speaker 2: by his word that he's not going to attend any

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Speaker 2: of them, which would be quite remarkable until the general that's,

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Speaker 2: by the way, when some people think Joe Biden will

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Speaker 2: refuse to go to the debate based on what we

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Speaker 2: already saw here, based on his legal challenges. Anyway, Eli,

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Speaker 2: it's good to have you. Thank you for joining Eli Jokley,

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Speaker 2: political analyst at morning Consults. Always a great conversation as

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Speaker 2: we assemble our political panel. Genie Shanzano is with us

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Speaker 2: here on a Monday Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democratic analyst Gooin

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Speaker 2: today by Lester Munson, Republican strategist and co head of

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Speaker 2: the international practice at BGR Government Affairs. Great to have

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Speaker 2: you both with us here. Genie, I think that we've

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Speaker 2: established that number one. This debate will be I guess, entertaining,

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Speaker 2: if not informative this week, but will not be moving

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Speaker 2: the needle for a lot of voters because Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: is not there. This is a shrewd move on his part.

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Speaker 5: In your view, it is, you know, when you are

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Speaker 5: leading by this much in the Republican polls, he is

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Speaker 5: little incentive to go there.

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Speaker 6: You know.

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Speaker 5: The idea with debates is if you're leading, the most

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Speaker 5: you can do is harm yourself. So it wouldn't make

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Speaker 5: sense for him to attend. I still think it's an

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Speaker 5: important debate because clearly we want to see who is

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Speaker 5: going to be that number two. Should Donald Trump's numbers

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Speaker 5: not fold nationally the way they seem to be, but

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Speaker 5: particularly as we look in the poles where his margin

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Speaker 5: is much less significant than the national polls suggest. So

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Speaker 5: for those reasons, I think the fight for number two

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Speaker 5: is critical and the debate, as you mentioned, Joe, it's

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Speaker 5: going to be entertaining either way. So I'm excited for

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Speaker 5: Wednesday night.

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Speaker 2: This is going to be a wild week, Jennie. Before

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Speaker 2: I bring in Lester and I want to give him

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Speaker 2: a time on this. Do you see this Washington Post

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Speaker 2: ABC News poll as an outlier? Is it junk as

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Speaker 2: some suggest, specifically the hypothetical matchup that shows Trump ten

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Speaker 2: points over Biden.

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Speaker 5: Yeah. You know, it's troubling that they've had two polls

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Speaker 5: that they themselves describe as an outlier, and I wish

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Speaker 5: they would give a little more context to that. So

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Speaker 5: for that reason, I do think we want to put

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Speaker 5: an asterisk around it. But I give the Post an

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Speaker 5: ABC credit because they have been doing that. They drew

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Speaker 5: attention to this. They put out the numbers and they

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Speaker 5: said this may not be accurate. And as Eli was

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Speaker 5: just talking about, the confidence level is critical. You mentioned

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Speaker 5: context effects, right, So many things make polls difficult to

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Speaker 5: talk about in a thirty second news piece, and that's

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Speaker 5: where we all have to be careful about overstating any

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Speaker 5: lead either direction.

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Speaker 2: Lester, We'll have more time for this, but are you

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Speaker 2: going to believe me or your Lion poll or what

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Speaker 2: do you make of this calling your own survey and outlier.

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Speaker 7: Well, it is kind of an outlier. I mean, the

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Speaker 7: average of all these polls shows a much more evenly

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Speaker 7: divided race. So I think it's it's fine to call

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Speaker 7: it an outlier. That doesn't mean it's wrong, and it

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Speaker 7: doesn't mean it's an indicator of some changes we're seeing.

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Speaker 7: So I think I think it's still a valuable poll

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Speaker 7: and we should be paying attention to it.

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Speaker 2: Well, there you go with clutch analysis from Jeanie and Leicester.

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Speaker 2: There were us for the hour. We're going to drill

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Speaker 2: down more on the campaign as we had for the debate,

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Speaker 2: what people think about a shutdown, what the likely outcomes

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Speaker 2: are here, and just what's going to happen in Detroit

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Speaker 2: this week. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one eastern on Bloomberg Radio. The

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Speaker 1: tune in alf Bloomberg dot com, a Bloomberg business app.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Well, call it an outlier if you will. But the

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Speaker 2: new poll that we're talking about from the Washington Post

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Speaker 2: ABC News does have some content some results here that

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Speaker 2: are consistent with what we've seen across the board, and

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Speaker 2: that has to do as well with age more often

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Speaker 2: a problem for Joe Biden. He would, of course, as

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Speaker 2: we're reminded by the Post b eighty two. At the

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Speaker 2: start of a second term. Overall, seventy four percent of

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Speaker 2: adults say Joe Biden would be too well to serve

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Speaker 2: another term. Fifty percent say that of Trump. I believe

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Speaker 2: they're only what four years removed. Joe Biden knows this,

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Speaker 2: as he made clear in his speech last week.

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Speaker 8: A lot of people are focused on my age. Well,

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Speaker 8: I get it, believe me, I know better than anyone.

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Speaker 8: But there's something else I know.

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Speaker 9: Well.

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Speaker 8: I came to all this nation was flat in.

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Speaker 9: US back I knew what to do.

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Speaker 8: I vaccinated the nation and rebuilt the economy. When Russia

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Speaker 8: inveni Ukraine, I knew what to do. I rebuilt NATO

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Speaker 8: and brought our alliance to rally the world and above all,

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Speaker 8: when democracy was saying I knew what to do, but

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Speaker 8: you know what, I wish I could say the threat

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Speaker 8: to our democracy has ended with our victory in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 9: But it didn't.

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Speaker 8: Our democracy is still at stake. Don't kid yourself.

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Speaker 9: So we have more work to do.

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Speaker 8: You and I.

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Speaker 2: So that's the pitch. Let's reassemble our panel for their

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Speaker 2: take on this. Genie Shanzano is with us. Of course,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor and Democratic analyst Lester Munson is here

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Speaker 2: as well, Republican strategist at BGR Group. Genie is not

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Speaker 2: going to do it for you? Is that the argument

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Speaker 2: that Joe Biden just laid out there that will carry

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Speaker 2: him to win another election?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: I mean I wouldn't say that's it, because the polls

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Speaker 5: aren't looking as if he can just rest on his laurels.

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Speaker 2: But when it comes to the age issue, though specifically

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Speaker 2: on the ash, yeah, you know.

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Speaker 5: You know. One thing I have to say is that

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Speaker 5: when you listen closely to Donald Trump, and he has

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Speaker 5: been asked in the Megan Kelly interview for instance, recently

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Speaker 5: about the age issue, he does go there the way

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Speaker 5: some other folks do, because he knows, to your point,

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Speaker 5: he's about three years younger than Joe Biden, so it's

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Speaker 5: not a particularly effective argument for him to make. What

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Speaker 5: he does try to say about Joe Biden is that

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Speaker 5: he's corrupt, he's crazy, he's incompetent. But you know what

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Speaker 5: this is somebody who over the weekend was calling for

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Speaker 5: the execution of Mark Milly. This is somebody who is

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Speaker 5: saying he's going to take over media outlets and shut

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Speaker 5: them down. He's going to shut down the federal government.

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Speaker 5: All Senate Dennivercrofts should resign because of Menendez. The list

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Speaker 5: of crazy from Donald Trump goes on and on, and

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Speaker 5: he puts it out there himself. So I think what

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Speaker 5: Biden needs to do is to accept the age issue.

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Speaker 5: Nothing he can do about that but focus in very

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Speaker 5: very carefully on the craziness and the chaos that is

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Speaker 5: Donald Trump. He beat him in twenty twenty. He can

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Speaker 5: do it again, but it is going to be a

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Speaker 5: tight race either way. But that's what I think he

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Speaker 5: has to do, because again, Donald Trump isn't focusing on age,

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Speaker 5: He's focusing on other issues that Biden has a clear

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Speaker 5: response for.

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Speaker 2: We just got a breaking news headline that I need

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Speaker 2: to hear from both of you on here. Lester, your

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Speaker 2: thoughts on this. We're hearing from Moody's. And this was

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Speaker 2: one of the first thoughts I had this morning when

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Speaker 2: I woke up, is this is this another downgrade that's

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Speaker 2: coming here? If we're walking into week after week with

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Speaker 2: no path in sight and a government shutdown widely expected,

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Speaker 2: isn't that the point here? Moody says a shutdown would

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Speaker 2: be negative for our credit rating? Lester, is that going

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Speaker 2: to be the next chapter here? Is that what might

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Speaker 2: motivate lawmakers to find a path?

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Speaker 7: I don't think so. Moody's has done this. There have

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Speaker 7: been threats of these downgrades before, and actual downgrades before.

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Speaker 7: I'm not sure it really changes the behavior of politicians.

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Speaker 7: I think Republicans see, of course, the chaos and their

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Speaker 7: own party, but they also see that voters are about

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Speaker 7: as likely to blame Biden and the Democrats for the

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Speaker 7: chaos as they are Republicans, And so I think there's

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Speaker 7: not there's not There's nothing dispositive here that's going to

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Speaker 7: push the fiscal conservative rebels into a into a different spot.

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Speaker 7: Short of working out the math on the budget that

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Speaker 7: they find acceptable.

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Speaker 2: It's just the endless threat of shutdowns the fiscal cliffs though, right, Genie,

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Speaker 2: this is what we heard from Fitch when we did

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Speaker 2: get a downgrade the first of August. Nothing's changed. You

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Speaker 2: could argue it's been actually getting worse. I mean, if

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Speaker 2: you consider what's happening now, I wonder if we could

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Speaker 2: actually avoid a default if we have the same set

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Speaker 2: of circumstances. I'm amazed that we got through that. Based

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Speaker 2: on what we're seeing this week with Kevin McCarthy not

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Speaker 2: even being able to get bills to the floor for debate.

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Speaker 2: Are we set for another downgrade?

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Speaker 5: This has been my fear all along, and we've talked

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Speaker 5: about this, and I think that Fitch statement when they

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Speaker 5: downgraded was so clear and should and I agree with

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Speaker 5: Lester it won't, but it should impact the thinking of

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Speaker 5: every reasonable person in a position of power to avert

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Speaker 5: a shutdown. They made the case that if you can't

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Speaker 5: do the basic act of governance, if you can't simply

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Speaker 5: keep your house in order and budget in a reasonable way,

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Speaker 5: how can we say you are a safe bet.

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Speaker 3: You're not.

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Speaker 5: And that's the fear here. They should listen to this

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Speaker 5: statement by Moody's and I am glad Moodies put this out,

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Speaker 5: by the way, because this is the reality we keep

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Speaker 5: hearing from Republicans. Oh it doesn't matter, shutdown doesn't matter.

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Speaker 5: Nobody will feel it, nobody will even know. Yes we will.

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Speaker 5: This is troublesome and chaotic and problematic. It'll impact all

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Speaker 5: of our lives. They don't care because they are trying

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Speaker 5: to do the bidding of Donald Trump. This, you know,

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Speaker 5: Caluk is of conservative chaotic people. But the rest of

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Speaker 5: us who are thinking Republicans and Democrats and moderates and

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Speaker 5: independents should care because it is bad way to run

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Speaker 5: your house wherever you live, including the US government.

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Speaker 2: Lester, I'd like to hear from you on what's going

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Speaker 2: to happen in the next few days. You're speaker McCarthy.

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Speaker 2: This is yesterday, CNN gets him in the hallways or

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Speaker 2: on his vest on a Sunday, got to go to

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Speaker 2: work again, and a you know, potential shutdown weekend. We

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Speaker 2: was talking here is CNN reporter asks me about the

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Speaker 2: holdouts periods.

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Speaker 10: Well, if you're holding out now, you're trying to get

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Speaker 10: a person into a shutdown. You've been stopping the bills

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Speaker 10: from ever coming up. I don't know how you stand

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Speaker 10: up and then say, well, he hasn't brought him up.

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Speaker 10: The only reason they haven't come up. They've been now

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Speaker 10: a committee, people have read them. I've been asking for

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Speaker 10: amendments since back to July, so we can bring them up.

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Speaker 10: But if you can't pass the rule, it's hard to

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Speaker 10: bring it up. It's almost that they want to walk

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Speaker 10: you into a shutdown then blame me for the shutdown.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

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Speaker 2: Doesn't make a lot of sense still to him, Lester,

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Speaker 2: how about you, what do you think is coming?

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Speaker 7: Well, let's just get a little grounded here. Being the

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Speaker 7: leader of the House Republicans is not an easy job.

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Speaker 7: They do not take These folks do not take direction.

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Speaker 7: They don't like group activities. They want to go their

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Speaker 7: own way. It's like it's hurting cats. Pick your metaphor.

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Speaker 7: These folks are hard to get all in the same

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Speaker 7: place at the same time. And Kevin McCarthy knows that.

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Speaker 7: And there's I think we're gonna look at a shutdown

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Speaker 7: here for at least a few days, and there could

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Speaker 7: you know, the most likely scenario is probably working out

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Speaker 7: some sort of compromise on the spending issues in the

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Speaker 7: late of night, and people are tired and exhausted and

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Speaker 7: finally cave in and agree on the path forward. I

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Speaker 7: will say one thing on behalf of the rebels here,

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Speaker 7: and I am slightly sympathetic to them. The fiscal situation

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Speaker 7: of the US government is terrible. The budget deficit at

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Speaker 7: two trillion dollars is at an absurdly high level. And

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Speaker 7: while their solutions may not solve the issue, they are

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Speaker 7: motivated by what they see as a crisis in US

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Speaker 7: government's federal governments spending, and they're not wrong. There is

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Speaker 7: a big problem that needs to be addressed. Their solution

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Speaker 7: may not quite get us there, but at least that's

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Speaker 7: what they're talking about. It does seem like that sentiment

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Speaker 7: is going to get more and more traction going forward

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Speaker 7: if we keep if we keep on seeing things like

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Speaker 7: a two trillion dollar budget deficit when we're not really

435
00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 7: doing surplus emergency surplus spending to fix the economy because

436
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 7: of COVID. This is just this is mostly a h

437
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 7: a regular federal government budget that has a two trillion

438
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 7: dollars deficit. It's it is alarming.

439
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 2: It's and that's a that's an important point, Lester. Of course,

440
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 2: we're not going to get to that until we really

441
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 2: start dealing with the budget as a whole. We're still

442
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 2: nibbled around the edges in this conversation. We can and

443
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 2: figure that out. The question is, though, is the Senate

444
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 2: gonna come to the rescue this week, or, as some

445
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 2: would say, will the Senate jam the House? I guess

446
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:34,199
Speaker 2: it depends which chamber you're in, but that could be

447
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:38,160
Speaker 2: the case. It is possible they're going to come back tomorrow.

448
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 2: I'll have five days to work on this and we'll

449
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,439
Speaker 2: pick it up next with Jeannie and Lester here on

450
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 2: the Fastest Show in Politics. The headline though, on the

451
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:49,399
Speaker 2: terminal government shut down negative for US credit rating. We

452
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:50,919
Speaker 2: just heard from Moodies. There you have it.

453
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

454
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

455
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Park Business. We're listening on demand

456
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:03,679
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast.

457
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 2: We've got to eat our whaedis here. You see what's

458
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 2: coming up this week? You get one more night of rest. Yeah,

459
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 2: everyone piles back in. Of course, lawmakers back in town tomorrow,

460
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 2: potential shutdown end of the week. But before that, we've

461
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:20,359
Speaker 2: got a Republican presidential debate. We've got our first impeachment

462
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,880
Speaker 2: hearing in the House. Yep, we've got a guy named

463
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 2: Joe Biden, another guy named Donald Trump visiting the picket

464
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 2: line in an historic strike that continues to this moment.

465
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 11: Yeah, Biden up first tomorrow, joining workers on the picket line,

466
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,359
Speaker 11: which we think is the first president in history to

467
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 11: do so, quickly followed thereafter by Trump in Detroit simultaneously,

468
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 11: with that debate happening on Wednesday. Thursday's the impeachment in

469
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 11: quiry Friday. We're really just going to be racing against

470
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,160
Speaker 11: the clock because the strike the clock strikes midnight on Saturday,

471
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 11: and then it might be game over for at least

472
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 11: a little while for the US government.

473
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 2: Yes, so we're spending the program today setting the baseline

474
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 2: for everything that you are going to experience. We'll do

475
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 2: this together, of course, over the course of the weekend.

476
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 2: We need to start with Jack Fitzpatrick of Bloomberg, govern

477
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 2: Our Congress whisperer. Here are appropriations expert who I can

478
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 2: only imagine it has been rather busy even though there's

479
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,120
Speaker 2: not a lot going on in town here. Jack, it's

480
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,400
Speaker 2: great to see you. We're hearing talk about a couple

481
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 2: of different things here. You've got a continuing resolution that

482
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 2: may come from the House or the Senate depending on

483
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 2: how this week goes. I'd love your thought on this,

484
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 2: whether that in itself in principle gets Kevin McCarthy fired

485
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 2: or prompts someone to try to fire him. And then

486
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,199
Speaker 2: the idea of getting I believe four appropriations for spending

487
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 2: bills he wants to get on the floor this week,

488
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 2: maybe pass them and get a little bit of negotiating leverage. Jack,

489
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:37,920
Speaker 2: Is any of this going to happen? Or do we

490
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 2: all go home at the end of the week with

491
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 2: nothing to show for it.

492
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 6: I don't think all of that happens.

493
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 9: For one though.

494
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 6: On the continuing resolution to just avoid a shut down,

495
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 6: both chambers are working separately on something, so we may

496
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 6: see two competing versions. There's still a lot of questions

497
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 6: about the timing there, how McCarthy gets support for a

498
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 6: stopgap measure to avoid a shut down from the hardline conservatives.

499
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 9: And then also last.

500
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 6: Week, Chuck Schumer made a procedural motion to set the

501
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 6: stage for the Senate's own continuing resolution, but they'll need

502
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 6: bipartisan support and realistically they'll probably want and maybe need

503
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:17,439
Speaker 6: unanimous consent to bring something forward in time for it

504
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 6: to be relevant. So there are some competing priorities there.

505
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 6: And then you mentioned the four government funding bills that

506
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 6: the House is trying to bring up. They got or

507
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 6: at least it looks like they'll probably have support for

508
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 6: the rule for all of them, But the idea of

509
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 6: getting four done within one week with as many amendments,

510
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 6: those hundreds of amendments that they approved, is not realistic.

511
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,119
Speaker 6: So I think they're giving themselves a number of options

512
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 6: and they'll figure out which ones they can actually move

513
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 6: forward on floor votes.

514
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 11: Well, considering how hard it was to get the rule

515
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 11: passed on the Defense bill, or how hard it has

516
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:57,360
Speaker 11: continually proven to be remains an issue there. Of course,

517
00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 11: is Ukraine funding and Jack, as you talk about unanimous

518
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 11: can being needed in the Senate. If there's anything in

519
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 11: regard to Ukraine, isn't Ran Paul for example, going to

520
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 11: hold things up?

521
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:10,199
Speaker 6: That is a very good question.

522
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 9: On Ukraine.

523
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 6: We haven't heard individual demands yet on pulling out Ukraine

524
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 6: aid from a Senate stopgap measure. There's a really big

525
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 6: sort of looming question about what exactly Conservatives want and need.

526
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 6: In terms of Ukraine. For example, there was discussion about

527
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 6: pulling the usual Ukraine aid out of the government funding

528
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,120
Speaker 6: bills that the House is bringing up and then allowing

529
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 6: a standalone vote on that. Leadership kind of changed their

530
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 6: minds and said we'll leave it in there, but we'll

531
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 6: give you a standalone vote on pulling it out. And

532
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 6: just after that Marjorie Taylor Green said that wasn't enough.

533
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:50,440
Speaker 6: It's a very unclear picture in terms of what machinations

534
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,719
Speaker 6: have to happen to satisfy the hardline conservatives. But there

535
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 6: have been a lot more demands in the House than

536
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 6: the Senate so far on that.

537
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 2: I hope you're sleeping okay at night, Jack, I mean

538
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 2: we must wake up and have to like defrag your.

539
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:08,120
Speaker 6: Brain every day with all of this, I won't feel

540
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 6: over the next week.

541
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 1: Government.

542
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,919
Speaker 2: I understand. Thanks for the time, sir. As always, he

543
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 2: does this for a living appropriations specifically, so Kayley, this

544
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 2: is the perfect opportunity to talk with ck mulveney. You

545
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 2: now imagine a world in which you've run omb, you

546
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:27,400
Speaker 2: co founded the Freedom Caucus, and you helped to run

547
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 2: the White House as chief of staff. All the touchstones

548
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 2: involved here, and of course that would be McK mulvaney.

549
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,680
Speaker 4: There's never a bad time to talk to me. There's

550
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 4: a bad time to talk to you and Kayley, but

551
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 4: maybe this week.

552
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 2: That out. We're always looking. That's why we do it

553
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 2: every week at this time. By god, I don't think

554
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 2: that's weekly around here.

555
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 4: Like this, but anything else going on to Washington, there's.

556
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 2: A just well I could throw a debate at you,

557
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 2: or a strike or a couple of other things.

558
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 4: What do you wanna know about the shutdown?

559
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 2: Well, Moody's is upset about it. They say this reflects

560
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 2: poorly on our credit. And of course remember Fitch said

561
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,959
Speaker 2: it's times like these that you know, you guys have

562
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 2: no credibility. I guess, so we're going to get a

563
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 2: downgrade along with a shutdown.

564
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 4: You know, listen that let me nice folks over there,

565
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 4: no question about I'm sure they do a really really

566
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 4: nice job. Of course I remember about the financial crisis.

567
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 4: Maybe they know the things they should have been paying

568
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 4: attention too closer. But look, we're going to pay our debt.

569
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 4: That's what they should care about, right, There's no question. Now,

570
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 4: I recognize the fact that during the debt sealing discussion,

571
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 4: this was that was a legitimate question. You know, are

572
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 4: we going to be able to borrow debt or what

573
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 4: are we able to finance the debt, et cetera. That's

574
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 4: not even on the table. Only about fifteen percent of

575
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 4: the government on a dollar basis, okay, term is measured

576
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 4: by money. Only about fifteen percent shuts down during a

577
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 4: lapse in appropriation. That's the legal term. Shutdown is a

578
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 4: made up term by the media. The term is lapse

579
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 4: in appropriation. And most of the government trundles on, including

580
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 4: Social Security, Medicare, at, Medicaid payments, on the debt, those

581
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 4: types of things. So I get Moody's, I get S

582
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,239
Speaker 4: and P sort of weighing in. To me, that's sort

583
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 4: of sticking the toes in the political waters, which is

584
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 4: not really where I like to see them operating.

585
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 11: But it is politics that they are referring to in

586
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 11: the Moody statement. They say that it's about intensifying political

587
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 11: polarization that continues to put US fiscal policy making, put

588
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 11: on US fiscal policy making during a period of declining

589
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 11: fiscal strength.

590
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 4: And I get that declining fiscal strength worries me.

591
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 2: It really doesn't.

592
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 4: If they were to come out and say, look, we're

593
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 4: thirty three trillion dollars in debt. That's why we're looking

594
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 4: at a downgrade. I get that. The fact that we're

595
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 4: not doing policy. What policy do they care about other

596
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 4: than us paying our debt? Should they care about Ukraine policy,

597
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 4: Should they care about border policy, Should they care about

598
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 4: any policy? Does that go to the financial wherewith all

599
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 4: of the nation. I don't know. Actually I do know,

600
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 4: and the answer is no, it doesn't. But I'm being

601
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 4: nice to them.

602
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 2: It was interesting to read the client note from Libby

603
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 2: Cantrill at Pemical this morning, who was making the distinction

604
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 2: between a partial shutdown and a full shutdown. In this case,

605
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 2: Your point is, or has been, though, that decisions can

606
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 2: be made along the way that might might make those

607
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 2: a little bit gray area. How do you see that.

608
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:09,959
Speaker 4: Partial shutdown full shutdown? There is no such thing as

609
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 4: a full government shutdown. You might have had it if

610
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 4: we had breached the debt selling. I don't know. It's

611
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:14,960
Speaker 4: one of the things you and I talked about at

612
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 4: the time, which is that that's sort of an unknown territory.

613
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 4: But huge pieces of the government will continue on because

614
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 4: they're off budget, they have under other funding sources. So

615
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 4: a full government shutdown in this context means anything that

616
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 4: gets a direct appropriation from Congress. For example, the CFPB

617
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 4: will continue to operate because they don't get appropriations from Congress. Right,

618
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 4: So there's a part of the government that doesn't shut down.

619
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 4: The military is still allowed to do a lot of

620
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 4: things even during a full government shutdown. Congress can still

621
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 4: function even during a so called full government shutdown. So

622
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 4: the full partial depends on really the significance there is,

623
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 4: whether or not it's individual. In twenty eighteen nineteen, for example,

624
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:58,959
Speaker 4: we had passed the Defense Appropriation Bill, okay, so that

625
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 4: part of the government didn't shut down. That's a partial situation.

626
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 4: When other folks who did not have other parts of

627
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 4: the government that did not have their appropriations bill passed,

628
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 4: they shut down, that's a partial government shutdown. But again,

629
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 4: when people back home think something shuts down, it ceases

630
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 4: to operate, and that's not the way it works. But

631
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 4: I'm sorry, you asked me a different question, which was, yeah,

632
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 4: there's a lot of latitude. And my favorite example is

633
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 4: in the two thousand and I think it was thirteen

634
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 4: during the Obama administration. I was in Congress. The Obama

635
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 4: administration chose they have the latitude to do this, to

636
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 4: close the national monuments, and in fact, they put signs

637
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 4: around them saying closed because of.

638
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 2: The shutfront page as it was.

639
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 4: By the way, if you go back and look at

640
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 4: the signs and do this, and I've done this, it's

641
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 4: funny because it actually looks like a Trump tweets. Every

642
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 4: third word is all caps. It's just bizarre. During twenty

643
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 4: eighteen nineteen, when we ran the shutdown, and by we,

644
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 4: I mean the Office Management Budget that I was running

645
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 4: for President Trump at the time, we chose to leave

646
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 4: those monuments open, and we have the ability to do that,

647
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 4: We had a latitude to do that. So what a

648
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 4: shutdown looks like can depend in large part on who's

649
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 4: running the Office of Management Budget and the executive branch

650
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 4: at that time. I expect with a Biden team running

651
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 4: OMB that it's going to look really, really nasty once

652
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 4: it happens.

653
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 11: Okay, so that's assuming that it does happen, which is

654
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 11: looking likely.

655
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:13,959
Speaker 2: By the day, we're going to be more constructive than

656
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 2: I am.

657
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 11: Aren't you how realistically it might be avoided? Do you

658
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 11: think there is any path to that? Specifically for Speaker McCarthy,

659
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 11: what's his way out of this?

660
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 4: Well, it's a way out that he doesn't want, and

661
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 4: it's a way out that I think the people who

662
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 4: have been here long enough know, which is that the

663
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 4: way out is for the Senate to take a bill

664
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 4: are talking now, I think about taking the FAA reuff

665
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 4: and turning that into a cr which they have the

666
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,440
Speaker 4: right to do, and then they send that down to

667
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 4: the House. Okay, so that's a bipartisan bill coming out

668
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 4: written by Democrats, supported by some Republicans out of the Senate,

669
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 4: going to the House, and then all the Democrats and

670
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 4: a handful of Republicans sign a discharge petition bypassing McCarthy's

671
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 4: control of the House, and they vote on it and

672
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 4: it passes. That is one real possibility, and that's why

673
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 4: I think McCarthy and even members of the Freedom Caucus

674
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 4: Chip Roy's pulling He doesn't have any hair, so he's

675
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 4: not pulling it out. But they're frustrated because they they

676
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 4: they've seen this, this this act before. They know how

677
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 4: it ends. If this is what happens, if the House

678
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:15,360
Speaker 4: can't pass anything, they'll end up in terms of the

679
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 4: begetting jammed by the Senate. The Senate will send them

680
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 4: something and it can bypass the ordinary course of business

681
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 4: by going to this just discharge petition and can become

682
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 4: law with a House ever not really ever having a

683
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 4: chance to put its its its seal of approval or

684
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:30,440
Speaker 4: stamp on the on the legislation.

685
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 2: Then the narrative says the next day or the next moment,

686
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy gets fired.

687
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 4: But why I mean in that circumstance, I mean, I'm

688
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 4: very sympathetic to Kevin on this. I'm not sympathetic on

689
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 4: the spending. Okay, I'm a big fan of the of

690
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,359
Speaker 4: the deal that the HFC cut with the Main Street

691
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 4: Caucus that would reduce spending, the eight percent reduction. That

692
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 4: that's that's the Freedom Caucus doing what it was set

693
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 4: up to do, try and figure out a way to

694
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 4: use leverage to move things to the right. Okay, And

695
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 4: I like that, and then Kevin actually supports that. But

696
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 4: on Kevin, Kevin's major complaint right now is so Matt

697
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 4: Gates wants to fire me because I can't get anything passed.

698
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 4: But the reason I can't pass anything is because I'm

699
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,360
Speaker 4: at Gates. I mean, that's I am sympathetic to that,

700
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 4: because that's just that's that's absurd.

701
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,239
Speaker 11: Well, it's not just Matt Gates, though, there is just

702
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:20,239
Speaker 11: a handful of these individuals. What would your message be

703
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 11: to them right now? Those specific members.

704
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 4: Get out of the Freedom Caucus? Okay, because there's a

705
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 4: rule in the Freedom Caucus. I wrote the rules for

706
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 4: the Freedom Caucus when we started, okay, and we had

707
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 4: some written down and some that weren't written down. And

708
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 4: the one that wasn't written down was you had to

709
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 4: be able to vote against a procedural motion a rule okay,

710
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 4: because that was the most mutinous thing you could you

711
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 4: could possibly we could think of at the time. Or

712
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:43,839
Speaker 4: you had to vote for a short term cr because

713
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 4: that was the most obsequish you could do to leadership. Okay.

714
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 4: But we would do either of those things if we

715
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 4: thought we were moving the ball to the right. Freedom

716
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 4: Caucus has done its job here. Chip Roy has done

717
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 4: his job as the policy chair. They've worked with the

718
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 4: moderates and the Party to come up with a good

719
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 4: compromise that could pass the House if these other folks

720
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:03,840
Speaker 4: would come along for the ride. But Kevin mcarthy's not

721
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 4: dealing with a caucus now. He's dealing with a bunch

722
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:09,359
Speaker 4: of individuals caucuses of one. And the situation he finds

723
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 4: himself in is Kaylee, you say you won't vote for

724
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 4: it unless you get X, and Joe you won't vote

725
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,399
Speaker 4: for it unless you get negative X. Well, those two

726
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 4: things are mutually exclusive, right, And that's where Kevin, that's

727
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 4: where he finds himself. And when he does manage to

728
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:23,359
Speaker 4: pick up a voter too. I think he picked up

729
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,760
Speaker 4: a couple of congressmen last week on a rule vote.

730
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 4: He loses another two because of what he gave to

731
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 4: the two to try to get them to go along.

732
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 4: So it's a very difficult situation for him to be in.

733
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 4: What I would tell them is, look, I get it.

734
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 4: I understand the debt probably better than they do, right.

735
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:40,399
Speaker 4: I understand that we worry about it. But doing it

736
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 4: this way is going to make things worse. My bet

737
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 4: is and I'll take this bet right now. If you

738
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,799
Speaker 4: guys want this, the spending deal at the end of

739
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 4: the day that passes out of Washington, d C will

740
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 4: exceed the cap set by the debt ceiling discussion.

741
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 2: How about that?

742
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 4: And that's that's right, That's how the town works. One

743
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 4: you give the Democrats in the Senate the upper hand,

744
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 4: they will spend above that cap.

745
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 2: We heard from Donald Trump, your former boss, on this.

746
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 2: This is our amazingly remaining moment unless you get everything,

747
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,760
Speaker 2: shut it down, he writes in a much longer post

748
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:18,800
Speaker 2: on social to what extent is he influencing the outcome

749
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 2: of this?

750
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:21,239
Speaker 4: You know, I think he's probably got a lot of

751
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 4: influence over Gates and Marjorie Taylor Green and those kinds

752
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 4: of although she is you know, they're not agreeing on it,

753
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 4: and they're not agreeing on it. So listen. The bottom

754
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,399
Speaker 4: line from my perspective on Trump is this is that

755
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:32,760
Speaker 4: this has no impact at all on his criminal proceedings.

756
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 4: The Department of Justice will continue to prosecute him. So

757
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:38,719
Speaker 4: everybody thinks they're doing Donald Trump a favor politically by

758
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 4: by by voting or by preventing the government from funding itself.

759
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 4: They don't understand how government works.

760
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 2: Boy, we covered a lot there that was good. Always.

761
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 4: I'm a Southern who can talk fast at times.

762
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 2: Now, well, I love this never pulling a punch either.

763
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:53,880
Speaker 2: Mick mulvaney, Great to have you back in Washington and

764
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:56,399
Speaker 2: at the table. I'm Joe Matthew with Kaylee Lyons. Thanks

765
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 2: for being with us on sound On. This is Bloomberg.

766
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:03,240
Speaker 1: If you're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast, catch

767
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 1: the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

768
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 1: the tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg

769
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:13,320
Speaker 1: Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa

770
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:16,760
Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play

771
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty.

772
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 2: With regard to the shutdown, and it's not because of

773
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 2: lawmakers coming back to town or announcing anything breaking here, Kaylee,

774
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 2: Moody's has piped up now and there's a question about

775
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 2: whether Moodies might join Fitch and Bess and p yep

776
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:38,879
Speaker 2: with a downgrade, telling us that a government shutdown, which

777
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 2: of course many people expect this week, would reflect negatively

778
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:44,400
Speaker 2: on America's credit rating. And it's not a shock or

779
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 2: it's very similar language to the warning that we got

780
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 2: from Fitch back in August, isn't it.

781
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 11: Yeah, When Fitch did decide to downgrade after the debt

782
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 11: sealing deal was all buttoned up. None of us really

783
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:58,240
Speaker 11: saw it coming. Is that hold on? We're still paying attention.

784
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:01,840
Speaker 11: And the kind of political discord that you see in

785
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,799
Speaker 11: Washington does affect the fiscal outlook. And that's essentially what

786
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 11: we're hearing from Moodies today. To quote the release, a

787
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:12,240
Speaker 11: government shutdown would demonstrate the significant constraints that intensifying political

788
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 11: polarization continue to put on us fiscal policy making. The

789
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:19,400
Speaker 11: politics matter to the credit worthiness of the US.

790
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 2: Well, that's right, and it could infect result in action.

791
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:25,799
Speaker 2: Who knows. This is a shot across the bow at least. Kayley. Yeah,

792
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 2: And it's where we begin with Congressman Brian Style delighted

793
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 2: to say the congressman is back with us. It's been

794
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:34,240
Speaker 2: a minute. Republican from Wisconsin serves on the House Financial

795
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 2: Services Committee, Chair of the Administration Committee. Congressman, you're sitting

796
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 2: there listening to us, and it's good to see you.

797
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:42,919
Speaker 2: Welcome back. Does this make you not want to come

798
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:43,840
Speaker 2: back to the capital?

799
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 9: We ultimately we got to get a deal done. At

800
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:47,799
Speaker 9: the end of the day.

801
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,799
Speaker 12: When you hear the credit rating agencies asking questions like

802
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 12: they are, I think it reminds all of us that

803
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:54,800
Speaker 12: our system is completely broken.

804
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 9: We're spending way more than we're bringing in.

805
00:39:57,520 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 12: And when the credit rating agencies, if they do move

806
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 12: on this in borrowing costs increase for the federal government,

807
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 12: that's real money. We have a thirty trillion dollar debt,

808
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 12: you know, half a percentage point of credit risk or

809
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 12: fifty basis points. That's one hundred and fifty billion dollars

810
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:13,759
Speaker 12: a year when fully baked in. So these are real

811
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,799
Speaker 12: dollars we're dealing with. It's why the whole system has

812
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 12: to be reworked in Washington.

813
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 11: Okay, Well, as we talk about how much time Washington

814
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 11: realistically has to rework, Congressman, you're up against a clock

815
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:29,320
Speaker 11: Saturday at midnight, coming back to DC tomorrow. The Senate

816
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 11: is as well, where do you put the odds of

817
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 11: you averting a shut down?

818
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 12: You in your colleagues, it's the darkest before the dawn,

819
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 12: and it's not down yet. I'm optimistic that at the

820
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 12: end of the day we're going to get there. There's

821
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:44,080
Speaker 12: nothing like a deadline in Washington to be able to

822
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:46,239
Speaker 12: get a deal done. I feel like sometimes it's a

823
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:49,240
Speaker 12: bunch of college students working on a term paper waiting

824
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 12: till the final hour.

825
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 9: It's no way to run a railroad.

826
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 12: But that's a little bit of the reality of what

827
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 12: we're dealing with in Washington. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail

828
00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:00,080
Speaker 12: and we can prevent a shutdown. No one wins in

829
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 12: the event of a shutdown.

830
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 2: So imagine a couple college guys come over from a

831
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 2: different dorm, Congressman, and they've got a paper they've already written.

832
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:10,200
Speaker 2: I'm wondering just where your head is today on the

833
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 2: idea of the Senate showing up with a continuing resolution

834
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 2: that the House might adopt. Does that save the day

835
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:18,840
Speaker 2: or present more challenges for your body?

836
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:21,279
Speaker 12: Well, I don't think that's our best case scenario. It's

837
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:23,319
Speaker 12: why a group of us in the House pushed hard

838
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 12: last week to move forward to conservative continuing resolution, a

839
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 12: stopgap measure that would have reduced government spending. Put an

840
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 12: impetust Tom who has forward on these appropriations bills and

841
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 12: also work on the core policy of securing the US

842
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:38,799
Speaker 12: Mexico border. So I'd rather see the House come back

843
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:42,280
Speaker 12: here tomorrow, move that forward, and let the Senate react.

844
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 12: I am concerned that the Senate is going to come

845
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 12: forward with a continuing resolution, a stopgap measure that'll have

846
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 12: additional funding, and that's a worse position to.

847
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:52,800
Speaker 11: Be in as we talk about what you could receive

848
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:56,280
Speaker 11: from Democrats. Obviously Democrats controlled the Senate, but in regard

849
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 11: to working with Democrats in the House, Congressman, is that

850
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 11: something that you would supp if Speaker McCarthy did have

851
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 11: to resort to that.

852
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 9: Well, hopefully we can't avoid that.

853
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 12: I'd love to see us move forward with the conservative

854
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 12: continuing resolution, but again, no one wins in the situation

855
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:12,720
Speaker 12: where the federal government is shut down, and so coming

856
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 12: into the final days of funding, I'm still optimistic that

857
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 12: we're going to reach an agreement to give us a

858
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:23,240
Speaker 12: stopgap measure to truly move forward next year's appropriations bills. Again,

859
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:25,279
Speaker 12: it's kind of in that home stretch where deals can

860
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,719
Speaker 12: be struck in Congress. Again, it's not a good way

861
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:30,680
Speaker 12: to run the operation, but it's better than letting the

862
00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 12: government shut down.

863
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 2: Are you disappointed in some of your Republican colleagues for

864
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 2: actually calling for a shutdown? Congressman, I know that not

865
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 2: all Republicans in the House agree on the next steps here.

866
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 12: I firmly disagree with my colleagues that don't think a

867
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 12: shutdown is going to cause real significant problems or more importantly,

868
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 12: give leverage to the Democrats to allow them to continue

869
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:56,520
Speaker 12: reckless spending. And so I'm of the firm belief that

870
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 12: we have to get a stopgap measure in place to

871
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 12: give time to get our appropriation bills across the line.

872
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 12: And I disagree with those of my colleagues they're calling

873
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 12: for a shutdown or saying that it would.

874
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 9: Ultimately, in the end of the day, be a good

875
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 9: strategic move.

876
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 11: So when we're talking about your colleagues, increasingly, Congressmen, we're

877
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:15,359
Speaker 11: talking about just a handful of individuals that may take

878
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:18,720
Speaker 11: issue with different components of what the wider spending picture

879
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 11: looks like, or just take issue with the Speaker himself.

880
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 11: Do you think that we could potentially be faced with

881
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:27,280
Speaker 11: a situation in the House of Representatives where Speaker McCarthy

882
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:29,719
Speaker 11: has to make a choice between continuing to fund the

883
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 11: government and keeping his job. What's your read on this.

884
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 12: Well, ultimately the end of the day, I think what

885
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 12: we're seeing as conservatives unified around the strategy of reducing

886
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 12: government spending and addressing the unsecured US Mexico border while

887
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 12: we're having is a big conversation about what those tactics are.

888
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 12: I don't think the tactic of shutting down the government

889
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,840
Speaker 12: at the end of the day achieves the goal of

890
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:53,240
Speaker 12: addressing the reckless spending or securing the US Mexico border.

891
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 12: There's a handful of my colleagues that disagree with that.

892
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:58,320
Speaker 12: I just think that that moves us in the wrong direction.

893
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 12: It would ultimately give Levyridge to Democrats in the Senate

894
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:03,879
Speaker 12: and President Joe Biden. And so I'm going to work

895
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 12: tirelessly throughout this week until the deadline here on Saturday

896
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 12: to make sure that we avoid a situation of a shutdown,

897
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 12: and to do that would kind of core conservative principles

898
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 12: at play Congress.

899
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 2: But if somebody put me to sleep halfway through the

900
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 2: summer and woke me up today, I'd be really confused.

901
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:24,719
Speaker 2: Because we thought there was a debt sealing deal that

902
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 2: had been struck between the Speaker and the President that

903
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 2: would avoid all of the drama that we seem to

904
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:33,319
Speaker 2: be going through right now. I wonder if you're disappointed

905
00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 2: that that deal didn't hold, and I would ask you

906
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,680
Speaker 2: as well, would that pass today? What a Speaker McCarthy said, no,

907
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:40,920
Speaker 2: we have a deal. Let's bring it back on the

908
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 2: floor for a vote.

909
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 12: Well, a little bit frustratingly, some people view that deal

910
00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 12: that is literally written on paper a little bit differently,

911
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 12: and so I think that's one aspect here.

912
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 9: But the devil is always in the detail.

913
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 12: On these spending bills, it's not only how much you

914
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 12: are spending, but also what you're spending it on. And

915
00:44:57,120 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 12: when we're actually passing the appropriations bills, the bills that

916
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 12: actually authorize the spending of federal government money, the fight

917
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 12: is broader than just the top line number. It also

918
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 12: involves the programs that are underlying our federal government spending.

919
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 12: And so when we get into the details about border

920
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 12: security and about some of the core policies that we

921
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 12: need to make sure we're putting forward to truly unleash

922
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:20,800
Speaker 12: American energy and grow the US economy, that gets a

923
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 12: little bit stickier than it does on simply agreeing to

924
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 12: just the top line number.

925
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:28,719
Speaker 11: Congressman, what about spending related to policy abroad? There are

926
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:30,840
Speaker 11: a few specific members, frankly, in both the House and

927
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 11: the Senate who take particular issue with including Ukraine funding

928
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 11: in these spending packages. Is that irresponsible?

929
00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 12: Well, I think at the end of the day, any

930
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 12: bill that's going to get across the line is going

931
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:42,440
Speaker 12: to require a majority vote in the House and the

932
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 12: Senate be signed by President Biden. I'd like to see

933
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 12: us have a standalone legislation on a lot of these

934
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:50,480
Speaker 12: key items. I don't know if we'll have the opportunity

935
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:52,759
Speaker 12: to do that in the House or not. People have

936
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:56,839
Speaker 12: divergent views as it relates for American support of Ukraine,

937
00:45:57,080 --> 00:45:58,880
Speaker 12: but I'd like to see us have standalone votes and

938
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 12: a much broader conversation about the US security interest in

939
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:04,800
Speaker 12: the war between Russia and Ukraine.

940
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 2: There's a quote from Neil Bradley at the Chamber of

941
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 2: Commerce that Kayley showed me, Congressman, a government shutdown is

942
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 2: not inevitable. He writes, this is an op ed in

943
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 2: the USA today. It is a choice, and it is

944
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:22,880
Speaker 2: among the dumbest decisions Washington can make. Do you agree

945
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:23,360
Speaker 2: with him?

946
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:24,160
Speaker 9: Broadly speaking?

947
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:26,440
Speaker 12: I don't think anything good comes out of a federal

948
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 12: government shutdown. It causes heartache for a lot of hardworking

949
00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 12: Americans who work for the federal government, whether or not

950
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 12: that's in the military or border patrol agents, and also

951
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,880
Speaker 12: I think politically at the end of the day often

952
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,880
Speaker 12: results in more spending, and so it's a really reckless

953
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:44,320
Speaker 12: way to operate and rarely achieves the goal of addressing

954
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 12: the spending levels in Washington.

955
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:48,800
Speaker 2: Back in town later today or tomorrow.

956
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 12: I'll be back to DC late late tonight, maybe early

957
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:56,360
Speaker 12: morning tomorrow. I'm currently in Wisconsin. It's always good to

958
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 12: be home talking to rational people before we head back

959
00:46:59,640 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 12: to DC.

960
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:05,280
Speaker 11: Sure after a Packers win as well, that's a good point.

961
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:06,799
Speaker 2: You got to put that away.

962
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 12: That was a great comeback, can't You can't complain when

963
00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 12: Jordan Loved delivers a comeback like that in the fourth quarter.

964
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:15,280
Speaker 9: Hopefully there's more to come for our Green Bay Packers.

965
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 2: Maybe he can come to Washington with you and help

966
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 2: us out here. We'll try to be rational when you

967
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 2: come back to see us. Congressman, thanks for being here

968
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:27,480
Speaker 2: as always. Congressman Brian's style Republican from Wisconsin. He like

969
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:29,680
Speaker 2: many getting on an airplane, I think, yep, we'll be

970
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:32,719
Speaker 2: traffic and nowhere to park against tomorrow.

971
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 11: I can't wait.

972
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,120
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the sound on podcast. Make sure

973
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify, and

974
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts, And you can find

975
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:47,760
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm

976
00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:51,879
Speaker 2: Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com