1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,120 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App with the on demand 5 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 2: Tyler Kendall here in Washington alongside of Joe, Matthew and 7 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 2: Nicholas Muduro has now left the courtroom in New York. 8 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 2: As we purse through all of these headlines, including this 9 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 2: one from our colleagues at Bloomberg Law earlier today, Joe 10 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 2: Nicholas Muduro has hired Juliana Sonnge's lawyer, Barry Pollock for 11 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 2: his criminal defense, the team saying that Maduro may seek 12 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 2: bail at a later date as we learn more about 13 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 2: how this schedule is actually going to evolve. 14 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, another headline just crossing the terminal that the US 15 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 3: is set to meet with oil executives this week on 16 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 3: the revival of Venezuela's oil market. And this is a 17 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 3: really interesting moment because the President is assuming that these 18 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 3: countries will, and his words, be very much involved in Venezuela. 19 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 3: But currently there's only one and that's Chevron. Whether the 20 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:09,680 Speaker 3: likes of vex On, Mobile, Conical, Phillips and the rest 21 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,119 Speaker 3: end up investing the better part of one hundred billion 22 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,040 Speaker 3: dollars is what is said to shore up Venezuela's oil 23 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 3: infrastructure remains. 24 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:17,759 Speaker 4: A big question right now. 25 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 3: But after what Charlie just told us, it sounds like 26 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 3: everyone is assuming that they're all diving in head first, 27 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 3: right exactly. 28 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 2: It feels like the White House has been banking on 29 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 2: some announcements coming, even though we know that the price 30 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:30,039 Speaker 2: and the risk premium has to be right. Even the 31 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 2: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik yesterday on Air Force one indicating 32 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 2: that the administration has also spoken to other private sector 33 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 2: companies in the steel and critical mineral industry. So clear 34 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 2: that the US is really ramping up this more vested 35 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 2: economic interest in Venezuela. 36 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 5: And that is part of. 37 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 2: The justification perhaps that we've heard from President Trump, including 38 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 2: yesterday saying this about how the US is going to 39 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 2: be involved in Venezuela going forward. 40 00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 6: We're going to run the country until such time as 41 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 6: we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition. 42 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 7: So we don't want. 43 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 8: To be involved with having somebody else get in and 44 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:12,679 Speaker 8: we have the same situation that we had for the 45 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:14,639 Speaker 8: last long period of years. 46 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 7: So we are going to run the country. 47 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:21,919 Speaker 2: For the latest. We go now to New York where 48 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 2: we find Bloomberg senior National Security reporter Miles Miller, who 49 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:29,799 Speaker 2: is in front of the courthouse where Nicholas Muduro just was. Miles, 50 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 2: can you just walk us through what the next steps 51 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 2: look like here now that we saw Maduro's appearance today, 52 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 2: because in President Trump's words, he is gearing up for 53 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:40,079 Speaker 2: a slog of a trial. 54 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 9: Oh yeah, Nicholas Maduro won't be back in court until 55 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 9: Saint Patrick's day. And it'll be no laughing matter when 56 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 9: he returns back to court because he likely will spend 57 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 9: the rest of his time while he awaits this trial 58 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 9: at the Metropolitan Detentions Enter in Sunset Park, Brooklyn. He 59 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 9: entered a plea of not guilty during his arraignment here 60 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:09,639 Speaker 9: at Federal Court in Lower Manhattan to those Narco terrorism 61 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 9: charges through an interpreter, telling Judge Alvin Hellerstein that he 62 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 9: is not guilty, he is innocent and is a decent man, 63 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 9: and most importantly, that he's the president of his country. 64 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 9: His wife, Cilia Flores, also pleading not guilty to three charges. 65 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:27,920 Speaker 9: Both of them wore headphones for translation. This is just 66 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 9: two days, of course, after US forces captured him in 67 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 9: Caracas during a nighttime raid. He of course spent the 68 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 9: weekend at MBC in Brooklyn. That's the notorious federal lock 69 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 9: up here, where he will continue spending his days, likely 70 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 9: in a special housing unit, which means he'll be confined 71 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 9: for twenty three hours of the day. They waived a 72 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 9: public reading of the indictment, and for good reason. It's 73 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 9: twenty five pages long. But prosecutors lay out a case 74 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 9: in which there was a narco terrorist conspiracy benefiting four gangs, 75 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 9: including the Sineloa Cartel and trend To Agras. And they 76 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 9: believe that starting in two thousand and going up until 77 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 9: about twenty twenty twenty, that they moved over two dred 78 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 9: fifty tons of cocaine per year through Venezuela. And that 79 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 9: happened facilitated by Mrduro and his wife getting passports, diplomatic 80 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 9: passports for drug dealers using state oil company planes in 81 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 9: order to get those. 82 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 7: Shrugs all over the world. 83 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:38,719 Speaker 9: Also charged is their son, the Interior Minister, former Interior 84 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 9: minister and the former leader of trend To Agras in Venezuela. 85 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 9: We are told by his lawyer that he has serious 86 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 9: health issues and needs to see medical officials, and he 87 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:56,360 Speaker 9: will do that, likely at the Brooklyn Hospital Center later 88 00:04:56,800 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 9: this week. We're also told by an attorney for his 89 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:04,679 Speaker 9: wife that she suffered serious injuries during her capture, broken 90 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:09,359 Speaker 9: ribs likely, and she will also undergo that medical treatment, 91 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:12,920 Speaker 9: but again won't be back in court until March seventeenth. 92 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 9: A trial likely not until next year. But this is 93 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:21,720 Speaker 9: a very serious case which follows charges that came out 94 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 9: in twenty twenty. Initially, if they are convicted of this, 95 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 9: they can face life in prison, a supermax prison, likely 96 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 9: the same prison where al Chapo. 97 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 3: Is Miles just quickly, you mentioned the Metropolitan Detention Center 98 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 3: the Federal jail where he was held over the weekend. 99 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:40,919 Speaker 3: I guess both of them and will continue to be 100 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:42,600 Speaker 3: a lot of people have heard of this because that's 101 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:46,359 Speaker 3: where al Choppo was held. This is where Luigi Mangioni was, 102 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 3: Pete Diddy, Gallaine Maxwell, Sam Bankman freed. 103 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 4: What kind of conditions is he living in there? 104 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:58,919 Speaker 9: Yeah, I've been covering the Metropolitan Detention Center for the 105 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:01,720 Speaker 9: better part of a decade. Now, in twenty nineteen, there 106 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:05,600 Speaker 9: was no heat, no hot water, and so inmates there 107 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:07,320 Speaker 9: went on a hunger strike. 108 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 7: Not great conditions. 109 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 9: The Bureau of Prisons say that they have fixed some 110 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 9: of those conditions. In fact, I saw a number of 111 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 9: procurement documents that they want to get a new HVAC 112 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,039 Speaker 9: sixtem in there. But it's not great. They get three 113 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:24,919 Speaker 9: meals a day, they're leaky faucets, seven foot cells. Not 114 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 9: great conditions. One judge here in the southern districts said 115 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 9: that they were barbaric. 116 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 7: So it's a far cry. 117 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:35,720 Speaker 9: From the presidential palace he was living in in Caracas 118 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:37,279 Speaker 9: just seventy two hours ago. 119 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 3: Well, it sure sounds like it outside the courthouse, Bloomberg's 120 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:43,359 Speaker 3: Miles Miller, thank you so much for the great reporting. 121 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:43,839 Speaker 4: Miles. 122 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,799 Speaker 3: We'll be having another conversation like this when it sounds 123 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 3: like on St. 124 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:48,160 Speaker 4: Patrick's day. 125 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 3: But there are still huge questions about what happens in 126 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 3: Venezuela itself, if in fact the US is running the 127 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 3: country as the president said, and how all of this 128 00:06:57,279 --> 00:06:59,840 Speaker 3: will be secured in the meantime, including the oil fields 129 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 3: that are apparently going to be in store for a 130 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 3: massive US investment. Here's what the President said himself. 131 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:09,479 Speaker 6: They always say boots on the ground. Oh so we're 132 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 6: not afraid of boots on the ground that we have 133 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 6: to have. We had boots in the ground last night 134 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 6: at a very high level. Actually, we're not afraid of it. 135 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 6: We don't mind saying it. But we're going to make 136 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 6: sure that that country has run properly. We're not doing 137 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 6: this in vain. This is this is a very dangerous attack. 138 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 6: This is an attack that could have gone very very badly, 139 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:29,239 Speaker 6: could have gone very badly. 140 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 3: When it comes to who's actually running the country as well, 141 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 3: there are big questions, as the Secretary of State Marco 142 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 3: Rubio has asked repeatedly on Sunday morning television if he 143 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 3: was in fact running Venezuela as the President suggested at 144 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 3: mar A Lago on Saturday morning. He did not affirm 145 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 3: those questions. Eric Farnsworth has been watching all of this 146 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 3: unfold for a couple of days now, and I'm really 147 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 3: glad he's with us. Tyler, the Senior Associate with the 148 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 3: America's Program at CSIS the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 149 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,559 Speaker 3: former White House State Department official who has been watching 150 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 3: all this unfold along with us. Eric, It's great to 151 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 3: have you at the table today in Washington. Thank you 152 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 3: for coming to talk to us. Who is running Venezuela 153 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 3: right now, if not Delci Rodriguez, who has sworn in 154 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 3: officially Saturday morning and has had a lot of different 155 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 3: things to say since then, condemning the capture of Maduro 156 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 3: on Saturday and then pledging to cooperate with the US 157 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 3: on Sunday. Is she part of the group the president 158 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 3: refers to running the country. 159 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 10: Well, Joe, it's so great to be back with you 160 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 10: and Tyler and the Bloomberg Thank you group here. That 161 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 10: seems to be the case. It's an evolving situation, clearly. 162 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 10: It's what both the President and Secretary of State have 163 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 10: said that Delcia Rodriguez will be the acting president for 164 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 10: the foreseeable future. I think there's a big question about 165 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 10: how long the foreseeable future actually is. This is a 166 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 10: matter of days, as a matter of weeks or even longer. 167 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 10: I think that's a really important point because many of 168 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:59,679 Speaker 10: the Venezuelans who have been celebrating this activity on Saturday. 169 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 10: I think if you look around the world, Venezuela ands 170 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:06,719 Speaker 10: almost uniformly have they still want to see democracy come 171 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 10: to the country, and so this transition period, I think 172 00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 10: maybe a necessary part of the transition, but it's but 173 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,079 Speaker 10: what is it going to And I think that's where 174 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 10: the questions really are. 175 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:19,080 Speaker 2: Well, let's dig into that timeline a little bit, because, 176 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 2: as we were mentioning before, President Trump has repeatedly said 177 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 2: that he wants to see Venezuela's oil industry rebuilt before 178 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 2: we see a transition to democracy. Yesterday, he told reporters 179 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 2: on Air Force one, the country needs to be fixed, 180 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 2: in his words, before he'll get into talking about any 181 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 2: potential election dates. What do you make of that argument 182 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,680 Speaker 2: that Venezuela needs more economic stability before we could see 183 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 2: this democratic transition. What are the risks there the balance 184 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 2: if it would result in potentially a delay in those 185 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 2: elections taking place. 186 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's a really important point. 187 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 10: I was involved in the State Department in the aftermath 188 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 10: of Operation Just Cause when the US invaded Panama, and 189 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:00,120 Speaker 10: the thing that is very much on people's mind it 190 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 10: is the aftermath of the invasion and the chaos that 191 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 10: happened in Panama, the looting, the people that were running 192 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 10: around without any security. 193 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 4: Forces keeping things under control. 194 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 10: I think the White House and State Department are very 195 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 10: mindful of that in Venezuela right now. So you do 196 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 10: have to maintain security. Economic security is absolutely essential as well. 197 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 10: But we have to remember this is a country that, 198 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 10: for twenty six years of Chavisma has been literally destroyed. 199 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 10: The institutions, the infrastructure, the education system. Much of the 200 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:29,320 Speaker 10: professional class and the educated class are out of the 201 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 10: country as part of the diaspora. They're itching to return 202 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:34,079 Speaker 10: to the country, but they're not there now, so there 203 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:36,080 Speaker 10: is going to have to be a transition period. 204 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,199 Speaker 4: Whether you can rebuild the energy. 205 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 10: Sector in the near term, I think that's an open question, 206 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:42,600 Speaker 10: and certainly there's going to be a lot of activity 207 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 10: along those lines, but fully rebuilding it's going to take 208 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:45,440 Speaker 10: a lot of time. 209 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 3: It's been framed as a ten year project to ten 210 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 3: year one hundred billion dollar project, so surely we're not 211 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:52,439 Speaker 3: going to wait ten years for an election by those 212 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 3: play the tape back, I guess at some point, Eric, 213 00:10:56,040 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 3: I guess I'm curious about questions the administration's decision to 214 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:06,920 Speaker 3: leave essentially the regime in place without its leader, and 215 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 3: whether that will prompt a sort of debathification, if you will, 216 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 3: inside Caracas. That could lead to more turmoil. You're talking about, 217 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,719 Speaker 3: you know, roving bands on the streets of Venezuela. 218 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 4: This could be a security nightmare, could it not. 219 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 10: Well, as I say, the administration wants to make sure 220 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 10: that that doesn't take do you prevent it? Well, what 221 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,200 Speaker 10: they're trying to do is maintain the essential elements of 222 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 10: the security forces in place, to maintain security and again 223 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 10: another and security Venezuelan and security. 224 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 4: And you have a real challenge. 225 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:40,959 Speaker 10: Here because, of course, until Saturday, and perhaps even now, 226 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 10: they're completely loyal to Madua. 227 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 4: And to the regime. 228 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:47,599 Speaker 10: That's been the key element for years of US policymakers, 229 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:51,559 Speaker 10: both Republicans and Democrats, suggesting that in order for democracy 230 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:54,320 Speaker 10: really to return to Venezuela, to take root, you have 231 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 10: to have the loyalty of the security forces, because they 232 00:11:56,360 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 10: have to maintain order and control the debathification effort. In Iraq, 233 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 10: I think many people again are mindful of that example. 234 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 10: They don't want to repeat those mistakes. They're going to 235 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 10: leave in place the elements of security until such time 236 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:12,319 Speaker 10: as a real political transition can take place. But Again, 237 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 10: that's an indetermined timeframe and people's expectations are high, and 238 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 10: you want to maintain that momentum. 239 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 2: Well, when we're talking about signals, what about President Trump 240 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:27,079 Speaker 2: saying yesterday that they're considering reopening the US embassy and Caracas. 241 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 2: What kind of message would that send? How does that 242 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 2: sort of play into the discussion we're happening we're having 243 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 2: here about what US communication is going to look like 244 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 2: on the ground, Because I believe the embassy has been 245 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 2: closed since twenty nineteen. 246 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 10: Correct, And that's actually something I've advocated for in the 247 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 10: last four d eight hours. The embassy reopened, get a 248 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 10: presence on the ground, help coordinate activities both of the 249 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:51,480 Speaker 10: United States but also frankly of some of the international community. 250 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 10: There's a huge humanitarian effort that's going to have to begin. 251 00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 10: There's a whole effort obviously in terms of dealing with 252 00:12:57,360 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 10: the remnants of the Maduro regime. 253 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:02,559 Speaker 4: About messaging on the ground. 254 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 10: These are critical and you can't really do it as 255 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 10: effectively from outside the country. 256 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 4: So I think that's an important sto. President's talking about. 257 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 4: Who might be next. 258 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, he flagged Colombia, he flagged Cuba, both last night 259 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:17,080 Speaker 3: while talking to reporters on Air Force one. 260 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:17,959 Speaker 4: Let's give it a listen. 261 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 8: Cuban looks like it's ready to fall. I don't know 262 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 8: how they they can hold out. But Cuba now has 263 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:27,760 Speaker 8: no income. They got all of their income from Venezuela, 264 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 8: from the Venezuela and oil they're not getting any of. 265 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,199 Speaker 7: And Cuba literally is ready to fall. Ahead. 266 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 8: You have a lot of great Cuban Americans and they're 267 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:37,160 Speaker 8: going to be very happy about this. 268 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 3: You see Lindsay Graham standing right next to the president there. 269 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 3: He said, just wait for Cuba. Their days are numbered? 270 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 4: Is he right? 271 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:47,439 Speaker 7: Well? 272 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 10: I think what that refers to is that Cuba really 273 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,960 Speaker 10: has been dependent on oil from Venezuela. 274 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:55,400 Speaker 3: Is it as simple as us? So we're not putting 275 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 3: boots on the ground in Havana. I am about Colombia. Could 276 00:13:58,080 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 3: they be targeted? 277 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 10: And so I would see I would not see that 278 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 10: happening at all. Look, I mean Colombia actually has presidential 279 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 10: elections in March in May, excuse me, parliamentary May in March, 280 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 10: but presidential elections in May. So President Petro is not 281 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 10: going to be a president much longer. 282 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:14,440 Speaker 4: In Columbia anyway. 283 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:16,960 Speaker 10: He can't run for reelection, so that process is going 284 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 10: to play itself out. But I think, look, the administration 285 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 10: is fully occupied right now on Venezuela. They have their handsful. 286 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 10: This is a big deal. It's a tactical, major success. 287 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 10: They have to turn it into strategic success. That's going 288 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 10: to take the time and effort of the administration at 289 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 10: the very highest levels. 290 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 4: Is their appetite. 291 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 10: Is there bandwidth frankly to start doing this with other countries, 292 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 10: I would argue no. I would also argue that, in fact, 293 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 10: Venezuela is somewhat a special case because this issue has 294 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 10: been ongoing for years. 295 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 4: Maduro has been under indictment for years. 296 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 10: In fact, it was President Biden that first put the 297 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 10: bounty on his head of twenty five million dollars. That 298 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 10: President Trump raised fifty million dollars. So this has been 299 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 10: going on for a while. There's not an equivalent scenario 300 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 10: of other countries in the region, but this is something 301 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 10: that has captured the attention of people around the region. 302 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 10: I think you're quite right to raise it, but we'll 303 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 10: have to see. 304 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 4: How it developed. Just getting that money, Tyler, do we 305 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 4: know is anyone getting that reward money? 306 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 2: Yeah? I think the President did mention it. I think 307 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 2: during the conference he said, I think we're going to 308 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 2: We're going. 309 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 5: To keep that once. 310 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 10: Could I just mention one other quick thing? Okay, super quick, 311 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 10: super quick? Is that Maduro's complaining about his circumstances in 312 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 10: jail right now. He's been a chief torture in Venezuela. 313 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 10: He needs to close Helochoey Day, which is the main 314 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 10: torture center. 315 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 4: That's where the conditions are really bad. 316 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 2: Eric Farnsworth, Senior Associate with the America's Program at the 317 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 2: Center for Strategic and International Studies. Thanks so much for 318 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 2: joining us. Keep with us well continuing coverage of what's 319 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 2: happening in Venezuela. Up next, this is Balance of Power 320 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Television and Radio. 321 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 322 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 3: more coming up after this. 323 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 324 00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm e's during 325 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: on Apple, Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 326 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 327 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 328 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 2: The Venezuela Assembly will swear in Delsi Rodriguez later Monday. 329 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 2: She's an official that the Trump administration has signaled they 330 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 2: field they can work with as President Trump says that 331 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 2: the US will run of Venezuela and we are waiting 332 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 2: on additional details on what that cooperation is going to 333 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 2: end up being. If you're joining us on Bloomberg Television, 334 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 2: you'll see live pictures now and for our radio listeners, 335 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 2: it appears that Nicholas Muduro is in a motor kid 336 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 2: heading back to the Federal Detention Center in Brooklyn after 337 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew we had that appearance, his first appearance in 338 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 2: Federal Court in Lower Manhattan today. 339 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 3: Not guilty the plea and not a big chakra there. 340 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 3: As the former president of Venezuela now settles into his 341 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 3: digs in New York. This is a notorious prison or 342 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,520 Speaker 3: he's being held at attention center that Myle Miller was 343 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 3: describing to us a short time ago. This is where 344 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 3: Al Choppo was held, where p Diddy was held, didn't 345 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:08,120 Speaker 3: even have running water or heat in some instances over 346 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 3: the past couple of years. So a far cry from 347 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,440 Speaker 3: the presidential palace that he was pulled out of on 348 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 3: Friday night into Saturday morning. This is something that we 349 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,880 Speaker 3: want to play to the panel because the political implications here, 350 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 3: just like the legal and economic implications, are huge. And 351 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 3: we're joined now by Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and 352 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 3: Genie Shanzano. 353 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 4: Rick is a. 354 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,439 Speaker 3: Partner at stone Core Capital and our Republican strategist. Genie 355 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 3: is democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. 356 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 4: Genie, I'll start with you here. 357 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 3: You were with us on Saturday morning when this was 358 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:43,919 Speaker 3: a breaking news story and we were really trying to 359 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 3: get our heads around exactly what the motivations were. Since then, 360 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 3: President Trump has said that we are running Venezuela, and 361 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:54,640 Speaker 3: there have been great questions about what he describes now 362 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 3: as the Donro doctrine, not the Monroe doctrine. And how 363 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:02,360 Speaker 3: that exactly with the rhetoric that we heard from President 364 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:06,479 Speaker 3: Trump against interventionism as a candidate and even as a 365 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 3: former president. 366 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:09,679 Speaker 4: Is this a new leaf for Donald Trump? How's it 367 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 4: going to play for MAGA. 368 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:14,359 Speaker 5: I think that's the big question. 369 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 11: It puts a huge wrinkle into the midterm elections coming 370 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 11: up into twenty twenty eight. I thought it was interesting 371 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 11: and I still think it's interesting that JD. Vance has 372 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,719 Speaker 11: not been part and personal of most of these public 373 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,400 Speaker 11: discussions of this. We didn't see him with the President 374 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,919 Speaker 11: in mar A Lago. We don't see him going to Congress, 375 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:37,440 Speaker 11: even though he's formerly served today, So I think it's 376 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 11: interesting because this thing could fall apart, and he certainly 377 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,680 Speaker 11: doesn't want to be holding the bag for twenty twenty eight. 378 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 11: We haven't heard much pushback from MAGA yet, although we 379 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 11: heard a little bit from the usual suspects, Tom Massey, 380 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 11: we heard Marjorie Taylor Green, who I think you and 381 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:55,159 Speaker 11: Tyler can correct me. 382 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:58,400 Speaker 5: I think today is our last day in Congress, so Mike. 383 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 11: Johnson's got to be celebrating that we've heard them push back, 384 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 11: But so far we've heard mostly support. That could change 385 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,360 Speaker 11: depending on how this rolls out, and I think there's 386 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 11: so many questions, so I think for Congress it's going 387 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 11: to depend on what do they hear from their constituents 388 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 11: and how does this thing unfold. The American publican polling 389 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,200 Speaker 11: at least, tells us they don't want boots on the ground, 390 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:24,440 Speaker 11: They don't want interventions like this, and that's why Donald 391 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 11: Trump ran on this for three elections and now has 392 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 11: in decided that he is going to violate that promise, 393 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,400 Speaker 11: and MAGA may not be happy with that in the end. 394 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 2: Right, Well, they hear from constituents and also what they 395 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,919 Speaker 2: hear from senior administration officials, because it's our understanding that 396 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 2: there's going to be a large briefing on Capitol Hill 397 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:46,959 Speaker 2: later today where they are going to be asking a 398 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,840 Speaker 2: ton of questions of officials about how this unfolded. But 399 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 2: Rick to pick up on this conversation, could this be 400 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:56,239 Speaker 2: a unifying factor for the Republican Party considering it? Has 401 00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:00,200 Speaker 2: Bromley been applauded beyond those that Genie mentioned in Really 402 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 2: we've spent the last few weeks months talking about how 403 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 2: divided the Republican Party seemed to be when it came 404 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,400 Speaker 2: to domestic issues like the way forward on healthcare. 405 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:10,200 Speaker 7: Yeah, I totally agree. 406 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:13,040 Speaker 12: I think it is a unifying concept both for MAGA 407 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:16,920 Speaker 12: and the more general party that I've been a part 408 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 12: of for the last forty years. Look, I mean everyone's 409 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 12: talking about the Dunrow doctrine. Teddy Roosevelt was the first 410 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 12: corollary corollary to the Monroe doctrine, and he basically had 411 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,639 Speaker 12: the same view. If there are leaders in Latin America 412 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:32,240 Speaker 12: that we don't like, we got to get rid of them. 413 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 12: And Donald Trump is basically playing the Teddy Roosevelt card here, 414 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:39,200 Speaker 12: and that makes a lot of Republicans happy. Maga likes 415 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,120 Speaker 12: it when Donald Trump is a bully and tough guy. 416 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:46,359 Speaker 12: They like it when, you know, he talks about taking 417 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 12: economics out of one country and putting it into ours. 418 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:50,800 Speaker 4: They're gonna like this. 419 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:55,880 Speaker 12: It's not a popular thing and pulling prior to the attack, 420 00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:01,719 Speaker 12: you know, Quinnipiac had our intervention in Venezuela at sixty percent. 421 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 12: But when we are successful, and we were successful in 422 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 12: this endeavor, the American public rallies to the support of 423 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 12: the chief executive into the military, and the military is 424 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:12,640 Speaker 12: not a small factor here. 425 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 4: They distinguished themselves in this operation. 426 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:20,159 Speaker 12: Their public image will improve because of this, and that 427 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,960 Speaker 12: in orders to the benefit of Donald Trump and the administration. 428 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,440 Speaker 12: So yeah, I think it's a strength builder for Republicans. 429 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 4: And by the way, give. 430 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,400 Speaker 12: Them something to talk about other than being on defense, 431 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 12: about affordability and healthcare. And that has completely taken Democrats 432 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,800 Speaker 12: in Congress off of their core message. 433 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 3: What are the risks there though, Rick President Trump says, 434 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 3: we're not afraid. 435 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:41,959 Speaker 4: To have boots on the ground. 436 00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 3: But you know, of course what that could mean when 437 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:49,160 Speaker 3: it involves securing not only Caracas but the oil fields 438 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 3: in a number of other interests who don't want. 439 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,200 Speaker 4: To see the US quote unquote running Venezuela. 440 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 12: Yeah, obviously this could go a lot of different ways, 441 00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 12: and early indications as as late as just an hour ago, 442 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,679 Speaker 12: we're getting more and more cooperation at least you know, 443 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:09,679 Speaker 12: in the news from the current regime in Caracas. So 444 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 12: hopefully there won't be a need to do that. But 445 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 12: you know, Donald Trump's carrying a big stick. He's got 446 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 12: this massive flotilla outside the waters of Venezuela that he's 447 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 12: obviously used very effectively to send a message. 448 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 4: And the fact that he says. 449 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:26,639 Speaker 12: He's willing to put boots on the ground take the 450 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:31,199 Speaker 12: political impact from that is no small thing, and I 451 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 12: think the leadership that was left behind in Caracas should 452 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,639 Speaker 12: probably believe in when he says it, and so sure, 453 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 12: it could get worse before it gets better, but right 454 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 12: now you're on a trajectory where, you know, I think 455 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,200 Speaker 12: the Republican Party at a minimum is going to rally 456 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,199 Speaker 12: around the president on this, and there's potential great upside 457 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 12: for our influence in the region and getting rid of 458 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 12: some really bad actors from our backyard. 459 00:22:57,520 --> 00:22:59,639 Speaker 2: If you're joining us on radio, we're so showing the 460 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:03,120 Speaker 2: line Picktures right now in Bloomberg Television, Nicholas Maduro's motor 461 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,120 Speaker 2: kid has arrived back to the detention center in Brooklyn 462 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 2: after his appearance in front of a federalge judge earlier 463 00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 2: today in Lower Manhattan. Genie, I wanted to go back 464 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,879 Speaker 2: to your point about perhaps the lack of us seeing 465 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,679 Speaker 2: the Vice President jd Vance and us seeing really another 466 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,280 Speaker 2: figure in this administration appeared to be elevated, and that 467 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,399 Speaker 2: is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Of course, his hawkish 468 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 2: views have long been standing policy in a cornerstone of 469 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 2: his foreign policy, but it hasn't really been of this 470 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 2: administration's foreign policy. How are we seeing Marco Rubio's role 471 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 2: evolve in the past year when it comes to who 472 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 2: has the President's ear on foreign policy? 473 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:41,640 Speaker 7: Yeah? 474 00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 11: I think it's such a great point, Siler. I mean, 475 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:48,480 Speaker 11: his marks are all over this. He has long been 476 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:52,520 Speaker 11: pushing for this. Although I would say that if Marco 477 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 11: Rubio was still sitting in the Senate, he would not 478 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 11: be satisfied with an administration that it not inform and 479 00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 11: go to Congress try to taking these actions. But he 480 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 11: has been pushing for this and he is going to 481 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,800 Speaker 11: own this. And I think if this turns out to 482 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 11: be a winning policy, a winning strategy, he could politically 483 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:17,800 Speaker 11: benefit that. But history tells us something very different. Whether 484 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,280 Speaker 11: you look at Afghanistan, whether you look at Iraq, whether 485 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,480 Speaker 11: you look at Cuba, whether you look at Guatemala, Nicaragua, 486 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:28,400 Speaker 11: US interventions in foreign countries to rebuild other nations almost 487 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:29,639 Speaker 11: always go south. 488 00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:31,879 Speaker 4: And I appreciate what Rick is. 489 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 11: Saying about the rally around the Flag effect, and that 490 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 11: is short term. Long term, it has had exactly the 491 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:42,440 Speaker 11: opposite impact, with a few minor exceptions surrounding World War Two. 492 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 11: This is the problem for the president politically, this is 493 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 11: going to be the problem for Merco Rubio, and I 494 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,639 Speaker 11: think this is why we see the Vice president trying 495 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:52,480 Speaker 11: to walk this fine line of not. 496 00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,399 Speaker 4: Hugging this too close. 497 00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,119 Speaker 11: And I would also say that we need to trust 498 00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 11: the American public that by and large, regardless of where 499 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:04,199 Speaker 11: they stand politically, they believe in the Constitution, and the 500 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:08,920 Speaker 11: Constitution says very clearly Article two, you cannot go into 501 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,440 Speaker 11: a foreign country and remove the president without the authorization 502 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:13,280 Speaker 11: of Congress. 503 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,120 Speaker 4: There's no if answer but about this. 504 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 11: This was a violation of US law, eun Charter, the 505 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:23,000 Speaker 11: US Constitution, and long term, the president and Marco Ruber 506 00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:25,159 Speaker 11: are probably going to pay a political price for that, 507 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 11: if history tells us anything. 508 00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,960 Speaker 3: Back to Capitol Hill for a minute here Rick, Democrats 509 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 3: plan to force a war powers vote in the Senate 510 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,640 Speaker 3: this week. It won't be the first time. I'm assuming 511 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:38,679 Speaker 3: you see that failing. Maybe you can tell me if 512 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 3: I'm wrong. But to what extent could the argument over 513 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 3: the mission in Venezuela slow down the debate over defense 514 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 3: appropriations as we head for a funding deadline at the 515 00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:51,399 Speaker 3: end of this month. 516 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,040 Speaker 12: Yeah, this is the thing that I'm most perplexed about. 517 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:57,959 Speaker 12: You know, the barn door is already open and all 518 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 12: the horses left. War powers is after the fact, it 519 00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:03,199 Speaker 12: doesn't really matter and it's going to fail anyway. So 520 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,119 Speaker 12: why the Schumer invests so much in that and not 521 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,919 Speaker 12: the winning formula that he had before the last shutdown, 522 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:13,479 Speaker 12: which was talking about affordability and the healthcare crisis that 523 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,359 Speaker 12: is going to raise its ugly head again before the 524 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,240 Speaker 12: end of the month is out. You would think the 525 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,680 Speaker 12: Democrats would want to get started on that right away. 526 00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,399 Speaker 12: And there isn't a deal between the Senate and the 527 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,159 Speaker 12: House right now on how to handle these appropriations, so 528 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,080 Speaker 12: it could get messy, you know, within the Republican leadership 529 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,640 Speaker 12: ranks around the Appropriations Committee. And the last thing that 530 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,840 Speaker 12: Tom Cole is saying Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee 531 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,639 Speaker 12: is defense, HHS and labor are going to be the 532 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,520 Speaker 12: last things he does, because those are the hardest things 533 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,920 Speaker 12: to do, as you point out, So there's a lot 534 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:46,160 Speaker 12: of wood to chop here. 535 00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:49,680 Speaker 4: We got a couple of cords worth. 536 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 2: Sometimes it feels like deja vie in Washington, All American, 537 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,840 Speaker 2: All right, Our political panel today, Rick Davis and Jeanie 538 00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 2: Schanzin know, both political contributors here at Bloomberg. Stick with 539 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 2: that's We're going to down to view from Europe. 540 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 12: Next. 541 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 5: This is Balance of Power. 542 00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 543 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 3: more coming up after this. 544 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,920 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 545 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 546 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:22,399 Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 547 00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,800 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 548 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:27,919 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 549 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,679 Speaker 3: Here we are everyone's back from Grandma's house and it 550 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:35,160 Speaker 3: is the full first full trading week of the year, 551 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,840 Speaker 3: which is something we wanted to talk to Nora about 552 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,159 Speaker 3: a little bit more now that we've got the baseline 553 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:43,959 Speaker 3: set from Charlie Nora Melinda Bloomberg Markets correspondent with us 554 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 3: live from world headquarters in New York. You know, there 555 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:48,720 Speaker 3: were a lot of questions about what happened to the 556 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,919 Speaker 3: year and melt up. Nora, you and I talked about it. 557 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:53,720 Speaker 3: There was no Santa around at the end of the year. 558 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 3: Are there seasonal factors now that we've seen people get 559 00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 3: through their tax loss selling at the end of the year, 560 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 3: or we just doing a clean slate and jumping back 561 00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:03,960 Speaker 3: into AI stocks like nothing ever happened. 562 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,359 Speaker 13: Well, it's interesting because I mean, obviously we are seeing 563 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,960 Speaker 13: an uptick in volume. I was here working through the 564 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 13: holiday season and there was about five of us it 565 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,120 Speaker 13: felt like here on Wall Street. But today we are 566 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 13: seeing the S and P five hundred having volumes up 567 00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,879 Speaker 13: about twenty percent versus the one hundred day average, So 568 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:23,120 Speaker 13: people are clearly hopping back into this market. But there's 569 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,560 Speaker 13: a lot of interesting things that are going on right now, 570 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:27,720 Speaker 13: especially given the fact that we are coming off of 571 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,720 Speaker 13: a double digit banner year. That's a third time in 572 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,679 Speaker 13: a row that we did see three years of consecutive gains. 573 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:35,720 Speaker 13: But as we're coming into this year, I mean, we 574 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,240 Speaker 13: are hearing from a lot of strategists that they're also bullish, 575 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 13: expecting roughly about eleven percent gain on the S and 576 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 13: P five hundred this year. But as we know just 577 00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 13: over the weekend, geopolitics has really been front end center 578 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,120 Speaker 13: and that's what's also really affecting this market today. 579 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:53,320 Speaker 3: Joe, Yeah, looking at Exon up over two percent, Chevron 580 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:55,800 Speaker 3: up over five percent, I guess that shouldn't be a 581 00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 3: big shot with Chefron already in Venezuela. But it's a 582 00:28:58,360 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 3: little bit of a stretch, isn't it. It's going to 583 00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 3: take ten years, they said to build out the Venezuelan infrastructure. 584 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,200 Speaker 3: Are people just looking for a reason to buy. 585 00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 5: Well, it certainly will take some time. 586 00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:08,880 Speaker 13: That's also been etched out, and a lot of the 587 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:11,360 Speaker 13: reporting that we've had on the Bloomberg terminal. This isn't 588 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 13: a one day turnaround or something that's even short term, 589 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 13: but you are seeing a lot of investors betting on 590 00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,720 Speaker 13: the long term here. We know Chevron is one of 591 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:22,640 Speaker 13: the only big US oil companies that still is working 592 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,760 Speaker 13: in Venezuela as opposed to a lot of the other 593 00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 13: companies that are no longer present there. But we are 594 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,680 Speaker 13: still seeing broad based gains here across the board. When 595 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:33,880 Speaker 13: we look at the energy sector more broadly, that is 596 00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:36,040 Speaker 13: the best performing sector in the S and P five 597 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:38,240 Speaker 13: hundred today. So that's clearly telling you all that you 598 00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,480 Speaker 13: need to know about what traders are thinking about for 599 00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 13: the long term. 600 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:42,440 Speaker 9: There. 601 00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:46,400 Speaker 2: It is all right, Bloomberg Television's market correspondent, Nora Melinda, 602 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:48,440 Speaker 2: thanks so much for joining us here and as we 603 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:52,480 Speaker 2: continue to follow the ongoing story and developments in Venezuela. 604 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,520 Speaker 2: The Trump administration is engaging with allies worldwide. We're getting 605 00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:59,000 Speaker 2: some headlines on the Bloomberg terminal. That's Secretary of State 606 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,360 Speaker 2: Marco rubiosp to some of his European counterparts, that includes 607 00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,600 Speaker 2: in the United Kingdom, you at Cooper saying that the 608 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:09,320 Speaker 2: pair spoke about the importance of complying with international law 609 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,240 Speaker 2: and Joe Matthew wh should happened next in Venezuela, as 610 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,920 Speaker 2: we know that our allies didn't appear to be notified 611 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 2: ahead of these strikes. 612 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:22,520 Speaker 3: That's true, yeah, our allies members of Congress had that 613 00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:25,560 Speaker 3: in common. President did indicate though that oil companies got 614 00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 3: a heads up and then got some consultation afterward, and 615 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,360 Speaker 3: we're hearing reports as well that they will likely meet 616 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:33,560 Speaker 3: at the White House later on this week. Knowing that, 617 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:37,840 Speaker 3: of course, this is the massive oil reserve that so 618 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:39,640 Speaker 3: many of these companies have wanted to tap. It, as 619 00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,520 Speaker 3: we just mentioned with Nora, could take years for that 620 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:43,240 Speaker 3: to be realized. 621 00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 2: In fact, this is part of the criticism coming from 622 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:47,920 Speaker 2: some members of Congress who are trying to thread the 623 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 2: needle here, saying that they're upset that the private sector 624 00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:52,280 Speaker 2: might have been a little bit more read in all 625 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 2: the plans before lawmakers were. But to dig into all 626 00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 2: of this, we're joined now by Heather Colmley. She's non 627 00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,600 Speaker 2: resident Senior Fellow at the Mayor can Enterprise Institute and 628 00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,400 Speaker 2: former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of 629 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 2: European and Eurasian Affairs. 630 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:07,360 Speaker 5: Heather, thanks so much. 631 00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:08,240 Speaker 2: For being here. 632 00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:09,960 Speaker 5: So, as we were just mentioning. 633 00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:13,120 Speaker 2: Seems like the US is now engaging with our European allies. 634 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,560 Speaker 2: What are we learning about what europe would like to 635 00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,840 Speaker 2: see the US do next when it comes to Venezuela. 636 00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:21,800 Speaker 14: Yeah, the European reaction was fairly muted. They certainly did 637 00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:24,959 Speaker 14: not see Maduro as a legitimate leader, and we're very 638 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 14: much concerned about the deterioration of democracy. 639 00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 5: But what you hear consistently is the concern. 640 00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:35,040 Speaker 14: For the violation of sovereignty and the respect for international law. 641 00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:39,479 Speaker 14: The Europeans also want to make sure because meanwhile, as 642 00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:44,040 Speaker 14: we've been watching these extraordinary events happen in Caracas, high 643 00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:48,400 Speaker 14: level talks in Kiev yesterday, continuing to work through the 644 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:52,520 Speaker 14: peace deal, a big important meeting in Paris tomorrow that 645 00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 14: President McCall is hosting to hopefully get more on security guarantees. 646 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:59,960 Speaker 14: So they're also trying to manage increased Russian aggression obviously 647 00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:04,440 Speaker 14: watching this incredibly bold military action, and then we'll talk 648 00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:08,120 Speaker 14: about I'm sure they're also very worried about a violation of. 649 00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 5: The Kingdom of Denmark. So they're managing all of these thanks. 650 00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 3: Yet wait to hear from you one the Greenland aspect, 651 00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,320 Speaker 3: with your history dealing with our European allies. But this 652 00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:21,480 Speaker 3: was framed yesterday by Marco Rubio Venezuela as a crossroads 653 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,560 Speaker 3: for all of our enemies, and it was, as you 654 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,560 Speaker 3: and I have discussed over the course of weeks, the 655 00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:29,560 Speaker 3: evolving justification that we've heard from the White House really 656 00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 3: resolved into on Friday and into Saturday, one that included 657 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,960 Speaker 3: Hamas and Iran, which in fact is true. Iran has 658 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,320 Speaker 3: facilities in Venezuela to train the Revolutionary Guard. 659 00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 4: They make drones there. 660 00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:45,400 Speaker 3: There is a direct connection, but it's not one that 661 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:47,240 Speaker 3: we heard about until very late in the game. 662 00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:49,360 Speaker 5: How come I agree with you completely? 663 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:51,560 Speaker 14: And this is going to be so interesting to see 664 00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:55,760 Speaker 14: the ripple effect of now that Maduro is gone. How 665 00:32:55,760 --> 00:33:00,160 Speaker 14: do we see Russia, China which has an enormous the 666 00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 14: billion debt extension to Venezuela, Russia, Aron Cuba, how our 667 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,880 Speaker 14: adversaries are interacting and when one of those you know, 668 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,880 Speaker 14: adversaries has a significant change, what will happen. 669 00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,920 Speaker 5: But you're absolutely right, Joe. I mean, we've really had a. 670 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:21,120 Speaker 14: Variety of descriptions here, from removing a dictator, democracy drugs. 671 00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,080 Speaker 14: Now it seems much more focused on oil, but this 672 00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:26,600 Speaker 14: is all about hemispheric defense, and that's. 673 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,000 Speaker 5: Where the Greenland question also comes into play. 674 00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:30,760 Speaker 2: Well, if we actually stick with what you were just 675 00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:33,720 Speaker 2: saying about, China and the western hemisphere of China really 676 00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:36,800 Speaker 2: has made significant in roads in Latin America. I believe 677 00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:40,760 Speaker 2: it's twenty four signatories between Latin America and the Caribbean 678 00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:44,240 Speaker 2: on its Belt and Road Infrastructure initiative. What is sort 679 00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:47,960 Speaker 2: of the broader geopolitical theme that we should be watching 680 00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:51,000 Speaker 2: for here? Could this actually be a setback to Beijing's 681 00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:52,840 Speaker 2: in roads that they've already made in the region. 682 00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,480 Speaker 14: Well, I will say this issarily a setback for Vladimir 683 00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:59,200 Speaker 14: Putin and Russia because he was certainly banking on this. 684 00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,360 Speaker 14: Six in fact, just signed an agreement of strategic partnership 685 00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:04,480 Speaker 14: between Venezuela and Russia. 686 00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:05,880 Speaker 5: But you're absolutely right. 687 00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:09,799 Speaker 14: Look, we're seeing across the board, Brazil, Peru, China has 688 00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:13,239 Speaker 14: made significant in routs. What does Beijing think about this? 689 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,600 Speaker 14: Will it lose its credit line? Will there be a 690 00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:18,600 Speaker 14: grand bargain made? And I think for me the interesting 691 00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,960 Speaker 14: point on Venezuela, we had Secretary of Rubio state very clearly. 692 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,080 Speaker 14: You know, the blockade will continue, the sanctions continued, But 693 00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:29,080 Speaker 14: meanwhile we are seeing that sanctioned tankers are able to 694 00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:32,560 Speaker 14: leave Venezuela right now, with some of them free passage 695 00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,759 Speaker 14: to China and Russia. So we're extremely confused even what 696 00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:37,400 Speaker 14: this means. 697 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,120 Speaker 5: For economic interests for China and Russia. 698 00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:42,360 Speaker 3: There's some confusion about what the so called Donro doctrine 699 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,520 Speaker 3: includes as well, because maybe this is not the end. 700 00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:48,399 Speaker 3: And the President indulged a lot of possibilities on Air 701 00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,720 Speaker 3: Force one last evening as he looked across the region, 702 00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:54,520 Speaker 3: considering Colombia or Cuba, which may. 703 00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:55,279 Speaker 4: Fall on its own. 704 00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:58,600 Speaker 3: According to the President, we don't necessarily need military intervention there. 705 00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:00,480 Speaker 4: But let's get to the idea Greenland. 706 00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:03,480 Speaker 3: We've been fooling around with this conversation since before the 707 00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:05,080 Speaker 3: President even took office. 708 00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:06,359 Speaker 4: Here's what he said last night. 709 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:11,279 Speaker 15: We need Greenland from a national security to situation. 710 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:12,839 Speaker 7: It's so strategic. 711 00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:17,839 Speaker 15: Right now, Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships. 712 00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:18,320 Speaker 7: All over the place. 713 00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:23,160 Speaker 15: We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security, and 714 00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,040 Speaker 15: Denmark is not going to be able to do it. 715 00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:28,560 Speaker 4: I can tell you, Okay, Heather is Greenland next. 716 00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,799 Speaker 14: Well, certainly the Danish Prime Minister and the Greenlandic Prime 717 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:36,120 Speaker 14: Minister believe it's a possibility as well as our NATO. 718 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,880 Speaker 14: They do, so they're taking him literally, yeah, they are 719 00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:42,200 Speaker 14: very much so. And today the comments by the Danish 720 00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:43,439 Speaker 14: Prime Minister metafred ression. 721 00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:45,560 Speaker 5: We're very clear. I mean again, look at the evolution 722 00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:45,839 Speaker 5: of this. 723 00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:49,080 Speaker 14: I mean President Trump has mused about this since twenty nineteen, 724 00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:52,400 Speaker 14: so this carries from the first term, and the Danish 725 00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,360 Speaker 14: and Greenlandic response first started as sort of haha, not 726 00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:55,920 Speaker 14: for sale. 727 00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,960 Speaker 5: No really, it's a territory. 728 00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:01,560 Speaker 14: And we're in partner, and we're a good partner and 729 00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:07,279 Speaker 14: we've been strong allies. Today was stop enough and if 730 00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,719 Speaker 14: you do this, you are now ending NATO as we 731 00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:11,759 Speaker 14: know it, because one NATO country is now going to 732 00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:15,879 Speaker 14: be attacking another NATO country. Interestingly, you had British Prime 733 00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:19,080 Speaker 14: Minister Cure Starmer, who was again on Venezuela, going he 734 00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:23,400 Speaker 14: was Madure was illegitimate, we don't like this. On Greenland 735 00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:26,080 Speaker 14: you had the Norwegian Prime Minister, the British Prime Minister 736 00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:30,120 Speaker 14: saying no, really, no, this is not so. You see 737 00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:34,279 Speaker 14: a change of tone here again. I think there'll be 738 00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:37,520 Speaker 14: a pressure that the administration is going to continue to 739 00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:39,480 Speaker 14: bring to bear on Greenland. 740 00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,760 Speaker 5: But this is Greenland is important for US national security. 741 00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,000 Speaker 14: But we have a base there, we have a strong 742 00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:49,600 Speaker 14: relationship the Danish government. The Greenland government will allow us 743 00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:53,120 Speaker 14: to do more, but it's not about annexing for purchasing 744 00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:53,720 Speaker 14: the territory. 745 00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:58,240 Speaker 3: We actually have Tyler the tweet from the Denmark's Prime minister. 746 00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,480 Speaker 3: I have to say this very directly to the United States. 747 00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:03,160 Speaker 4: To your point, Neather, it. 748 00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,080 Speaker 3: Makes absolutely no sense to talk about the need for 749 00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:06,360 Speaker 3: the US to take over Greenland. 750 00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,319 Speaker 4: The US has no right to annex any of the 751 00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:10,239 Speaker 4: three countries in the Commonwealth. 752 00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:12,680 Speaker 2: Pretty straightforward, I mean, yeah, And as you're putting into 753 00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,640 Speaker 2: context for US, pretty big, huge news and a pretty 754 00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,239 Speaker 2: big shift because it was a redhead on the Bloomberg 755 00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,319 Speaker 2: Terminal that Denmark says a US attack on Greenland would 756 00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:25,200 Speaker 2: mean the end of NATO. If we could take perhaps 757 00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,640 Speaker 2: a broader view here, and you hear President Trump talk 758 00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:31,239 Speaker 2: about how this is important to national security. How are 759 00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:35,120 Speaker 2: we seeing natural resources play so much into this administration's 760 00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:37,320 Speaker 2: actions when it comes to foreign policy, because we have 761 00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:40,319 Speaker 2: Venezuela and oil reserves. But also when we are talking 762 00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,480 Speaker 2: about Greenland, they're sitting on i believe, the third largest 763 00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,320 Speaker 2: oil reserves in the Arctic, and there's a huge deposit 764 00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:47,280 Speaker 2: of critical minerals. 765 00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:50,719 Speaker 14: So there's absolutely But again this gets back to the 766 00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:54,200 Speaker 14: Venezuela energy picture right now. We have to be very 767 00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:58,040 Speaker 14: clear about what's on the ground. We do see critical 768 00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:02,279 Speaker 14: minerals mining in Greenland. There is very limited infrastructure. It 769 00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:06,520 Speaker 14: will take decades plus. There were some exploration offshore Greenland 770 00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,000 Speaker 14: oil and gas. It was not found to be sufficient. 771 00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:12,160 Speaker 14: And by the way, we have fairly low global energy prices. 772 00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:16,560 Speaker 14: You were talking about very expensive, decades long investment. It 773 00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:20,200 Speaker 14: sounds good in theory. The practical implementation of this is 774 00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:21,120 Speaker 14: far far away. 775 00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:21,719 Speaker 4: We haven't had a. 776 00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:24,040 Speaker 3: Reason to pull out the Greenland beauty shots in a while, 777 00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:25,640 Speaker 3: as you're seeing on Bloomberg TV. 778 00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:26,920 Speaker 7: But is the. 779 00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,759 Speaker 3: President right about this that it's covered with Russian and 780 00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:31,680 Speaker 3: Chinese ships all over the place. 781 00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:32,480 Speaker 4: That's the quote. 782 00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:34,799 Speaker 5: It's not covered, but there is. 783 00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:38,360 Speaker 14: Again, there's importance, and we're seeing an uptick in Russian 784 00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:43,200 Speaker 14: submarine activity. The famous Greenland Iceland, United Kingdom gap, that 785 00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:46,080 Speaker 14: Cold War gap to make sure those Russian submarines from 786 00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:51,239 Speaker 14: the Arctic do not penetrate and threaten North America. You 787 00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:55,920 Speaker 14: do have Chinese research vessels that are doing research on 788 00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:59,680 Speaker 14: the subsea on the seafloor, which is concerning, but we 789 00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:03,680 Speaker 14: don't would have to threaten annexing Greenland. We need to 790 00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:06,279 Speaker 14: work with our partners, and the Danes have already put 791 00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:10,319 Speaker 14: a substantial Arctic security package to increase that security. That's 792 00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:12,319 Speaker 14: the direction we want them to go. But this is 793 00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:15,719 Speaker 14: distracting them for continuing to focus on their own strengthening 794 00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:16,240 Speaker 14: of security. 795 00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:17,120 Speaker 5: They're doing a lot. 796 00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:20,000 Speaker 14: We see some problems there, but it doesn't require what 797 00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:20,919 Speaker 14: the President is saying. 798 00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:22,120 Speaker 5: We only have a minute left. 799 00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:24,600 Speaker 2: But since we have spoken so much about Russia, President 800 00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:27,560 Speaker 2: Trump was asked about the state of negotiations with Ukraine 801 00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,160 Speaker 2: yesterday on Air Force One. Have you seen anything that 802 00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:33,800 Speaker 2: has indicated positive momentum in your view? As the President says, 803 00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:36,239 Speaker 2: this could be wrapped up soon, but we haven't really 804 00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:37,680 Speaker 2: gotten headline. 805 00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:38,600 Speaker 14: So it's not going to be wrapped up soon. But 806 00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,800 Speaker 14: I'm continuing to see really important progress. This meeting tomorrow 807 00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:46,920 Speaker 14: in Paris, the Europeans will continue to articulate the security 808 00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:49,920 Speaker 14: guarantees that Ukraine needs before they can move forward in 809 00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:53,759 Speaker 14: any deal, American commitments have to be an essential part 810 00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:56,719 Speaker 14: of that. You're seeing the Ukrainians also start to prepare 811 00:39:56,760 --> 00:40:00,120 Speaker 14: the ground for our referendum, for an election if they're 812 00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:03,319 Speaker 14: there is a peace deal. So I'm seeing the positives 813 00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:08,400 Speaker 14: on the Ukrainian and the European side. Russia absolutely nothing. 814 00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:11,279 Speaker 14: In fact, you see Vladimir Putin wanting to expand this war, 815 00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:15,799 Speaker 14: not taking any of these signals. So progress on the 816 00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:19,399 Speaker 14: Ukrainian European side, nothing on the Russian side right now. 817 00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:23,360 Speaker 3: Frustration for President Trump reemerging at mar Alago on Saturday, 818 00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:26,600 Speaker 3: saying he's not happy with Putin's killing too many people. 819 00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:28,359 Speaker 4: Heather, it's really great to have you back. 820 00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:30,120 Speaker 3: Thank you for the insights to think that this all 821 00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:34,400 Speaker 3: occurred since we last spoke. Heather Conley, American Enterprise Institute. 822 00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:38,000 Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Tyler Kendall only I'm Bloomberg. Stay 823 00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:40,160 Speaker 3: with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more 824 00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:41,160 Speaker 3: coming up after this. 825 00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,919 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 826 00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:52,440 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 827 00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:55,520 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 828 00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:59,040 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 829 00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:03,040 Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 830 00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:06,439 Speaker 3: As we try to figure out the next move here 831 00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:09,720 Speaker 3: for the administration when it comes to Venezuela. The President, 832 00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:12,080 Speaker 3: of course, has said repeatedly here that we are running it. 833 00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:14,440 Speaker 3: When he was asked at mar A Lago on Saturday, well, 834 00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:17,160 Speaker 3: who's running it? He said, these guys behind me, that 835 00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:20,360 Speaker 3: included the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who, if he 836 00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:22,880 Speaker 3: didn't do the full Ginsburg yesterday, came pretty darn close, 837 00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:26,080 Speaker 3: and he did not reassert the President's view that we 838 00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:30,160 Speaker 3: would be quote unquote running the country to that end. 839 00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:34,040 Speaker 3: In fact, well, there is someone who runs the country. 840 00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:37,399 Speaker 3: That would be the former vice president here who took 841 00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,480 Speaker 3: the oath on Saturday, Rodriguez, you've heard that name a 842 00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:44,160 Speaker 3: couple times, was sworn in as acting president on Saturday 843 00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:46,880 Speaker 3: morning and had some pretty chippy things to say about 844 00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:51,800 Speaker 3: President Trump, saying that Maduro is the only real president, 845 00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:56,760 Speaker 3: the only real leader of the country. In a blistering speech, 846 00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:04,120 Speaker 3: talked about the right to sovereignty that issued a statement 847 00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:07,560 Speaker 3: yesterday that sounded or at least read a lot different 848 00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:13,600 Speaker 3: than she was speaking here. We extend an invitation here 849 00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:15,520 Speaker 3: it is on your screen, to the US government to 850 00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:18,840 Speaker 3: work together on a cooperation agenda aimed at shared development 851 00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:24,680 Speaker 3: within the framework of international law. Leland Lazarus does this 852 00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:27,719 Speaker 3: for a living. He's the founder and CEO of Lazarus Consultings. 853 00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:30,560 Speaker 3: Spent years working as a diplomat and an official in 854 00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:33,640 Speaker 3: the Department of Defense focused on China and Latin America. 855 00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:34,759 Speaker 4: Funny how that works. Leland. 856 00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:37,000 Speaker 3: Is great to have you with us here on Bloomberg 857 00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:39,520 Speaker 3: and I'm glad that we could make some time. Who 858 00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:43,480 Speaker 3: is running Venezuela right now, Well. 859 00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:43,960 Speaker 7: Thank you so much. 860 00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:44,279 Speaker 4: Job. 861 00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:47,719 Speaker 16: The person whos running in Venezuela right now is Deci Roldriguez. 862 00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:51,560 Speaker 16: Up until recently, she was the vice president of Venezuela 863 00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:53,960 Speaker 16: and now sworn in as the interim president. 864 00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:57,600 Speaker 7: Her background is interesting because she led. 865 00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:02,360 Speaker 16: The economic development in Venezuela and try to help the 866 00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:08,680 Speaker 16: economy limp along despite the various sanctions and problems that 867 00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:11,520 Speaker 16: I've been dealing with the economy for years. But she 868 00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:14,600 Speaker 16: was also very much involved in SADIE, which is the 869 00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:17,960 Speaker 16: Venezuela's intelligence arm and so she has a lot of 870 00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:21,720 Speaker 16: connections in and around the country. I think that's exactly 871 00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,760 Speaker 16: why the Trump administration is relying on her and her brother, 872 00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:28,080 Speaker 16: who was the President of the National Assembly, to keep 873 00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:31,520 Speaker 16: some moticum of stability in the country at this time. 874 00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:34,279 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you heard what I just mentioned in the 875 00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,839 Speaker 3: sort of night in day statements that she made over 876 00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:40,279 Speaker 3: the weekend. Is she playing in her own game here? 877 00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:43,040 Speaker 3: Is she malleable? Will she work with the United States? 878 00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:46,400 Speaker 3: What happens in the next couple of days, as Trump says, 879 00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:47,640 Speaker 3: we're in charge. 880 00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:51,680 Speaker 16: Well, Joe, I think that she doesn't really have any 881 00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:56,600 Speaker 16: choice in the matter, right. Trump said yesterday that if 882 00:43:57,040 --> 00:44:00,680 Speaker 16: local Venezuelan officials are not going to do what the 883 00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:04,080 Speaker 16: US wants it to do, there may be a second stripe. 884 00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:08,640 Speaker 16: And so that is a very specific threat to the 885 00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:12,839 Speaker 16: local Venezuela officials to say, let's get your house in order, 886 00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:16,279 Speaker 16: and if you're not going to support US priorities in 887 00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:20,120 Speaker 16: the region or rather in the country, there will be consequences. 888 00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:26,120 Speaker 3: Pretty remarkable when you consider the regional implications, at least 889 00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:29,760 Speaker 3: the potentially potential regional implications here and who might be next. 890 00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:31,640 Speaker 4: The President was speaking openly. 891 00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:34,200 Speaker 3: Last evening, Leland on Air Force one with reporters about 892 00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:39,400 Speaker 3: Colombia and Cuba. Maybe they'll both be on the target list. 893 00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:41,720 Speaker 3: Here's a sense of what he said about Cuba. 894 00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:44,840 Speaker 8: Cuban looks like it's ready to fall. I don't know 895 00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:46,000 Speaker 8: how they if they can all do. 896 00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:49,920 Speaker 7: But Cuba now has no income. They got all of 897 00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:50,879 Speaker 7: their income. 898 00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:53,600 Speaker 8: From Venezuela, from the Venezuela and oil, they're not getting 899 00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,680 Speaker 8: any and Cuba literally is ready to fall. 900 00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:59,719 Speaker 7: Head. You have a lot of great Cuban Americans. You're 901 00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:01,040 Speaker 7: going to I'm very happy about this. 902 00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:05,279 Speaker 3: You heard Senator Lindsey Graham coughing there, or maybe you 903 00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:07,200 Speaker 3: saw him standing next to the president at the back 904 00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:10,520 Speaker 3: of the jet. He said, right after the president there, quote, 905 00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:15,080 Speaker 3: you just wait for Cuba. Their days are numbered unquote. Leland, 906 00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:16,120 Speaker 3: is Havana next. 907 00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:18,520 Speaker 4: Well. 908 00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:20,799 Speaker 16: I think the idea is that there will be some 909 00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:23,840 Speaker 16: sort of a domino effect right where not only Cuba, 910 00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:27,680 Speaker 16: but also Nicaragua in this region have really depended on 911 00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:31,319 Speaker 16: Venezuela's economy in order to support their own, and so 912 00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:36,319 Speaker 16: with such a keynote like Venezuela down, it may be 913 00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:39,000 Speaker 16: just a matter of time for both Cuba and Nicaragua 914 00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:43,080 Speaker 16: as well. But Joe, I just want to think about 915 00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:48,520 Speaker 16: the master stroke of this operation right Militarily, there wasn't 916 00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:53,480 Speaker 16: one service member who was injured or hurt during this operation, 917 00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:56,600 Speaker 16: and it killed multiple birds with one stone, right, and 918 00:45:56,640 --> 00:46:00,239 Speaker 16: we now have access to a country that has the 919 00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:05,360 Speaker 16: world's largest oil reserves. It has so much goal, the 920 00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:09,160 Speaker 16: most in all Latin America, other critical minerals. 921 00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:12,360 Speaker 7: We make herb drug trafficking. 922 00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:17,680 Speaker 16: For so many years, Maduro has basically allowed his territory 923 00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:22,280 Speaker 16: to be a playground for transnational criminal organizations. And most importantly, 924 00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:27,680 Speaker 16: it dislodges our main competitors, right Russia, China and Iran 925 00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:30,000 Speaker 16: from what they've been using as a strategic beachhead in 926 00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:31,120 Speaker 16: the region for so long. 927 00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:33,920 Speaker 4: I'm glad that you mentioned that. 928 00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:36,959 Speaker 3: I want to wrap our conversation with that thought because 929 00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:40,280 Speaker 3: I think it was really Friday and into Saturday, Leland 930 00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:43,640 Speaker 3: that we heard Republican talking points, really administration talking points 931 00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:48,760 Speaker 3: add Iran and Hamas to the argument for why Maduro 932 00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:52,040 Speaker 3: needed to go right, it started as drugs. Fentanyl became 933 00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:55,080 Speaker 3: a weapon of mass destruction. Then it was the oil. 934 00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:57,319 Speaker 3: They stole, the oil we want it back now we 935 00:46:57,360 --> 00:47:01,680 Speaker 3: need to interrupt Hamas and Iran, and there are in 936 00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:07,160 Speaker 3: fact drone making facilities and Republican Guard training facilities in Venezuela. 937 00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:09,239 Speaker 3: To what extent are we going to make a dent 938 00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:11,719 Speaker 3: when it comes to Tehran with this section? 939 00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:15,399 Speaker 7: I think you're going to make a huge dent. 940 00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:19,560 Speaker 16: I mean I think that Venezuela and Iran have been 941 00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:20,839 Speaker 16: mutually supporting each other. 942 00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:22,319 Speaker 7: You've seen. 943 00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:29,960 Speaker 16: In recent years leaders of Iran visiting Venezuela and further 944 00:47:31,680 --> 00:47:35,240 Speaker 16: saying support for not only economic issues but also defense. 945 00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:40,360 Speaker 16: And so with again a key node in this region 946 00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:44,360 Speaker 16: going down for some of our major adversaries and competitors, 947 00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:46,480 Speaker 16: there's be a huge blow from them, I think, a 948 00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:51,200 Speaker 16: huge support for geostrategic interests in the region. 949 00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,120 Speaker 4: Jylan, it's great to have you. Be good to have 950 00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:55,640 Speaker 4: you back soon. 951 00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:59,160 Speaker 3: Leland Lazarus with us live on Bloomberg as we consider 952 00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:03,040 Speaker 3: the geopolitical angle here but also the economic one. When 953 00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:05,600 Speaker 3: everyone talks about the economic implications, you know they're talking 954 00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:08,080 Speaker 3: about one thing largely, and that's oil. 955 00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:09,879 Speaker 4: As Mike Worth, the. 956 00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:14,480 Speaker 3: CEO of Chevron, the one major US based integrated oil 957 00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:17,960 Speaker 3: company that's actually doing business there was with us here 958 00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:21,400 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg talking about this back in December. Here he 959 00:48:21,520 --> 00:48:23,400 Speaker 3: is from the tenth of last month. 960 00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:27,640 Speaker 17: I don't know what the presence intentions are. We've been 961 00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:31,359 Speaker 17: in Venezuela for the last one hundred years. Our presence there, 962 00:48:31,400 --> 00:48:34,880 Speaker 17: we believe is important for the local economy, the regional economy, 963 00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:38,399 Speaker 17: the people of Venezuela. The Venezuelan oil is sought after 964 00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:42,360 Speaker 17: by US refiners, and we operate there in full compliance 965 00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:45,440 Speaker 17: with all US law and sanctions. We're in discussions with 966 00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:48,000 Speaker 17: the administration to ensure that we stay in compliance. 967 00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:53,640 Speaker 3: And oil prices are moving here, not only Chevron Stock, 968 00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:56,920 Speaker 3: which is popping along with Exxon, even though it doesn't 969 00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:59,000 Speaker 3: do any work there. I guess there's an expectation it 970 00:48:59,080 --> 00:49:02,640 Speaker 3: might be involved CE oil futures West Texas Intermediate more 971 00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:04,080 Speaker 3: than one and a half percent right now, about a 972 00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:07,160 Speaker 3: dollar to top fifty eight dollars a barrel. Now, if 973 00:49:07,200 --> 00:49:09,879 Speaker 3: you listen to this program and you've heard Miami Mike 974 00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:14,000 Speaker 3: McGlone talk about oil, it's only down from here, is 975 00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:17,520 Speaker 3: the smart analysis. With a looming glut on the horizon, 976 00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:20,279 Speaker 3: that doesn't mean you can't see a little trigger in 977 00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:22,920 Speaker 3: a knee jerk move when there's a shock news event 978 00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:25,560 Speaker 3: like this one, though, and we wanted to connect with 979 00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:28,320 Speaker 3: Mike Weile. We had a moment Bloomberg Intelligence Senior commodity 980 00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:30,880 Speaker 3: strategist Mike mcglon, am I close to what's going on here? 981 00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:33,600 Speaker 4: And if that's the case, do you short oil today? 982 00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:39,920 Speaker 18: Point traders are looking to short oil. I think levels 983 00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,600 Speaker 18: to do that are maybe around sixty five dollars a barrel. 984 00:49:42,640 --> 00:49:45,840 Speaker 18: And you pointed out the biggest rallies come in bear markets, 985 00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:49,040 Speaker 18: and crude all is clearly an oversupplied bear market. So 986 00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:51,240 Speaker 18: for this year, I'm looking maybe at a range between 987 00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:53,160 Speaker 18: forty two and sixty five. 988 00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:54,040 Speaker 4: People are looking to sell. 989 00:49:54,120 --> 00:49:56,879 Speaker 18: But you pointed out prices are up to everything's up today, 990 00:49:56,920 --> 00:49:59,640 Speaker 18: even bond prices up. But the one key thing that's 991 00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:03,920 Speaker 18: down is natural gas, partly because it doesn't care about Venezuela. 992 00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:06,000 Speaker 18: It's pointing out the winter is probably going to be 993 00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:09,040 Speaker 18: warmer than normal, as oval as usual, natural gas is 994 00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:11,400 Speaker 18: down about five percent. It's the time and season typically 995 00:50:11,480 --> 00:50:13,920 Speaker 18: peakd So what matters is where will we be at 996 00:50:13,920 --> 00:50:15,960 Speaker 18: this time next year. I fully expect there's going to 997 00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:20,239 Speaker 18: be more croil supply, more natural gas supply, and there's 998 00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:22,480 Speaker 18: just a little bit of risk if the stock markets 999 00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:24,200 Speaker 18: here are a little bit lower. If it goes down 1000 00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:26,840 Speaker 18: a little bit, those are pretty severe deflation air forces. 1001 00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:28,600 Speaker 18: But right now, mister Trump is going to get very 1002 00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:30,919 Speaker 18: much likely to get lower energy prices by the time 1003 00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:32,240 Speaker 18: we get to interesting. 1004 00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:35,160 Speaker 3: Well, you know, in our remaining moment here, Mike, I 1005 00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:37,120 Speaker 3: love for you to give us a reality check on 1006 00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:39,719 Speaker 3: the work that would need to take place because the 1007 00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:42,760 Speaker 3: oil fields there were tolder and disrepair, and a massive 1008 00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:46,160 Speaker 3: infrastructure investment to the tune of one hundred billion dollars 1009 00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:49,280 Speaker 3: would be required over the next ten years. Does Exon 1010 00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:51,080 Speaker 3: show up, Does Conico Phillips show up? 1011 00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:55,480 Speaker 18: They all do, including state sponsored, state owned oil companies 1012 00:50:55,520 --> 00:50:56,480 Speaker 18: from Russia and China. 1013 00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:57,920 Speaker 7: They're also involved in Venezuela. 1014 00:50:58,000 --> 00:51:00,440 Speaker 18: So how they work out that out out of my 1015 00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:03,359 Speaker 18: price range my game. But I think the key thing 1016 00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:05,440 Speaker 18: is you think a year or five years from now, 1017 00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:08,879 Speaker 18: what happens, Joe, is this technology moves faster now than ever. 1018 00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:11,040 Speaker 18: That's what's been happening in the shale forever. 1019 00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:12,640 Speaker 7: It just happens faster than ever. 1020 00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:15,720 Speaker 18: And we did produce two twenty years ago three million 1021 00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:17,919 Speaker 18: bears a day in venezuel and now it's down the one. 1022 00:51:18,160 --> 00:51:20,600 Speaker 18: Getting it back towards two should take a little while, 1023 00:51:20,640 --> 00:51:21,440 Speaker 18: but it's going to happen. 1024 00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:25,600 Speaker 4: Mike mcgloan with us from Miami Bloomberg Intelligence. 1025 00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:27,480 Speaker 3: Great to have you, Mike, to think of all the 1026 00:51:27,560 --> 00:51:30,480 Speaker 3: time I spent going to sleep with the blinking sit 1027 00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:33,320 Speaker 3: Goo sign outside my bay window on Charlesgate. 1028 00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:38,440 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 1029 00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:42,799 Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify. 1030 00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:44,360 Speaker 4: Or wherever you get your podcasts, and 1031 00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:47,040 Speaker 3: You can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC 1032 00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:49,920 Speaker 3: at New Time Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.