WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 2nd, 2025 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:08.600 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:15.480 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.520 --> 0:00:18.720 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.319 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always, on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:37.360 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Naila Richardson of ADP 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:40.320 joins us now for more. Following the lowest ADP we've seen, 0:00:40.360 --> 0:00:42.560 I believe since March twenty twenty three, Neil, good to 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:44.760 see you great to see is almost behind it. How 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:46.240 much weakness are we actually seeing? 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:50.760 First off, I think it's important to underline the prominent 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:53.920 trend in the ADP data, which is a slowdown in 0:00:54.000 --> 0:00:58.080 hiring momentum that's been from January through this year. That 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:02.320 has been consistently valid every single month. What we did 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:05.480 this month, though, was a statistical regularity. 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:06.560 We do it every year. 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:11.080 We announce it in February with the January release, which 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:15.240 is to do an annual benchmarking. Normally this does not 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:19.039 make news this month, it did. But what it does 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:23.399 is it reattaches the ADP numbers to the source of 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:26.399 truth that we have in the United States, which is 0:01:26.440 --> 0:01:31.039 this benchmark that comes from state Unemployment Insurance data, this 0:01:31.200 --> 0:01:33.399 kind of data that we see weekly with the jobless 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:36.800 claims numbers. And the importance of that is, if you 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:39.600 really want the perfect data set, you would have the 0:01:39.680 --> 0:01:43.880 comprehensiveness of the state UI data covering ninety five percent 0:01:43.959 --> 0:01:48.200 of US employees and the granularity of ADP data. We 0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:50.760 don't have that, So we make this trade off of 0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:54.480 ADP estimating that state data that comes out with a 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:57.559 six month lag, we reattached to it every single year. 0:01:57.640 --> 0:01:59.560 So was it as bad as it looked yesterday? I mean, 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:01.559 that's really what people want to know. This all sounds 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:03.800 very complicated, and it sounds like, you know, there are 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:05.960 a lot of things at play, But the granular data. 0:02:06.080 --> 0:02:08.000 Does it display the same kind. 0:02:07.840 --> 0:02:11.399 Of negativity if the bond market took notice of it yesterday? 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:12.320 Yeah, it does. 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:16.600 This is our best estimate of what hiring was in September. 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:20.000 Negative thirty two thousand. That is our best estimate. It 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:23.440 is our most robust estimate. It's rigorous, it's tied to 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:27.760 the QCW. So no, you don't need to dismiss the number. Now, 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:31.200 if you look at the series, we don't fully rebnchmark 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:34.360 the year until February with the January release, but that 0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:38.120 September number is the number. So what it tells you 0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:41.399 Even if you look at the pre benchmarked series, which 0:02:41.440 --> 0:02:44.200 I did, of course you see the same trend. And 0:02:44.240 --> 0:02:46.320 this is what I want to underscore to your audience, 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:50.000 because the takeaway is qualitative and the takeaway is firm 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:54.000 validated that hiring momentum has slowed since the beginning of 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:56.560 the year to a point where it is a week 0:02:56.840 --> 0:02:59.680 labor market in terms of hiring. It is not a 0:02:59.720 --> 0:03:04.400 week labor market in terms of layoffs. Very important to 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:08.000 hold these two ideas together. The stock of the labor 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:11.919 market is strong, the flow into the labor market is weak. 0:03:12.080 --> 0:03:14.200 The flow out of the labor market is weak. 0:03:14.280 --> 0:03:16.919 So is the market breaking or is it just an 0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:20.320 ongoing stagnation of the low fire, low higher that still 0:03:20.320 --> 0:03:22.000 has not broken in one way or another. 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:23.600 We have a stagnant labor market. 0:03:24.360 --> 0:03:28.440 And all of that consumer spending that fueled Q two 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:31.280 a three point eight percent growth rate we just saw 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:33.920 was built on the backs of the labor market, because 0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:37.080 the labor market is supporting the consumer. So in that way, 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:41.880 it's strength. But that strength is not strong enough in 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:44.840 terms of consumer spending to create new jobs. 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:46.760 That's a different level of. 0:03:46.760 --> 0:03:50.160 Economic productivity that we still need to see in the economy. 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:54.640 That's missing the dynamism that leads to consistent job creation. 0:03:55.040 --> 0:03:57.880 We don't have it in the September number. This time 0:03:57.920 --> 0:03:58.480 tomorrow we. 0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:01.360 Would be debating and looking at the data. When it 0:04:01.360 --> 0:04:03.240 comes to the BLS report, we're not going to get it. 0:04:03.520 --> 0:04:06.200 What do you make of the shutdown? How much of 0:04:06.240 --> 0:04:07.880 an impact is it's going to have on the economy. 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:11.400 You know, it depends on how long the government stays 0:04:11.440 --> 0:04:15.760 shut But what I will say is that the shutdown 0:04:15.840 --> 0:04:19.240 doesn't just affect federal workers. It does affect federal workers, 0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:21.840 but not just. If you think about all those private 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:25.640 contract workers, the ones that operate the cafeterias, the ones 0:04:25.680 --> 0:04:29.960 in the national parks, the ones that drive government officials 0:04:30.000 --> 0:04:33.200 here and there, they are also without work as the 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:37.120 government shuts down. So it's these reciprocal effects that I'll 0:04:37.160 --> 0:04:40.160 be watching in the private sector data to see if 0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:44.000 this leads to even more weakness and hiring because of 0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:45.800 all those private contractors in. 0:04:45.760 --> 0:04:48.200 The past, did you see it bleed into the private sector. 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:51.960 Yeah, but it was always temporary. We know that the 0:04:52.000 --> 0:04:56.120 longest shut down that we've seen recently, it was thirty 0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:59.960 five days. That's a long time to be without a paycheck. 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:01.760 I don't care who you are, it's a long time 0:05:01.760 --> 0:05:04.080 to be without a paycheck. And so that is going 0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:06.240 to have an effect in the labor market. It's going 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:09.240 to have effect in consumer spending. But if we can 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:12.599 get a reopening that's much shorter than that, we won't 0:05:12.640 --> 0:05:16.000 see such a strong pushback in the labor market when 0:05:16.040 --> 0:05:18.640 it comes to hired. I also will note that this 0:05:18.960 --> 0:05:21.960 just adds to the malaise of uncertainty that we've seen 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:25.000 all year long. It's not just the data, it's not 0:05:25.160 --> 0:05:28.640 just the conditions. It's the fact that companies are going 0:05:28.680 --> 0:05:32.240 to operate through fog. If you're a private contractor, do 0:05:32.320 --> 0:05:35.000 you hire right now? And how much do you hire? 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:37.800 That's the question before them. As the government is. 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:40.120 Shut the entire morning, we've been talking to people who 0:05:40.160 --> 0:05:43.000 say that the US economy can keep running at this 0:05:43.160 --> 0:05:45.560 very slow pace and we can still see the incredible 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:49.400 dynamism that's reflected in equity market pricing. Do you see 0:05:49.440 --> 0:05:51.520 the same relationship or do you think that there is 0:05:51.920 --> 0:05:54.760 a greater warning flag in the labor market and the 0:05:54.839 --> 0:05:57.520 dynamic that you're seeing there for the other side of 0:05:57.560 --> 0:05:58.040 the equation. 0:05:58.520 --> 0:06:01.360 You know, I feel like we are at this traffic 0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:03.839 light right now that is out You know what happens 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:06.400 to traffic when the light is out right, You fall 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:08.680 back on this, You take your turn. 0:06:08.720 --> 0:06:09.479 I'll take my turn. 0:06:09.640 --> 0:06:11.560 Sometimes we get that confused and we go at the 0:06:11.560 --> 0:06:14.440 same time, and once we're past the light, we're fine. 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:16.880 That's where we are in the economy. We don't have 0:06:16.960 --> 0:06:20.200 the data we're used to seeing. There's some uncertainty about 0:06:20.240 --> 0:06:23.680 who goes next. We won't get the flow. There's bottlenecks. 0:06:24.000 --> 0:06:27.240 That's what comes up economic activity. But if you can 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:30.599 get pass that into some clarity, we have all the 0:06:30.920 --> 0:06:34.720 ingredients in this economy to push forward with strong GDP 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:37.400 growth as we saw in the second quarter. So some 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:40.200 of this is just getting the lights literally back on 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:42.960 and the data is still flowing. So we can keep 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:44.080 that dynamism flowing. 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:44.760 That's the data. 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:47.520 But when it comes to hiring plans, if there is 0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:50.520 a greater degree of mergers and acquisitions and certainty at 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:53.120 least from the economic trajectory, maybe not in the tariffs, 0:06:53.240 --> 0:06:55.080 do you expect the hiring to reaccelerate. Do you think 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:57.080 this is going to break to the upside rather than 0:06:57.120 --> 0:06:58.320 further to the downside. 0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:01.440 I think there's a potential, but right now it is 0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:05.200 not clear where that trigger of dynamism comes from. 0:07:06.040 --> 0:07:08.080 For employers to hire, what do they need. 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:11.840 They need clarity, they need strong consumer demand, and they 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:15.120 need the ability to invest long term. So they have 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:17.960 some of those elements in place. I think we're still 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:22.200 missing the clarity, and that's a really important component of 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:25.640 whether or not you can add to your headcount, which 0:07:25.680 --> 0:07:28.840 is a long term people investment. Now, one thing I'm 0:07:28.880 --> 0:07:33.480 hearing employers say is now, if we can't hire our workforce, 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:36.400 let's make sure those workers we have are more engaged. 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:39.840 And when I talk to big companies especially, there has 0:07:39.880 --> 0:07:43.480 been more attention on how to upscale their workers, train 0:07:43.520 --> 0:07:46.960 their workers, engage their workers, have more connection to get 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:49.200 the most out of the people they have right now, 0:07:49.440 --> 0:07:51.760 even if they can't add to the headcount in a 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:52.720 significant way. 0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:55.360 Keep your payper happy. That's what it's all about. A 0:07:55.400 --> 0:07:56.480 place are getting back to that. 0:07:56.480 --> 0:07:56.880 That's good. 0:07:57.200 --> 0:07:59.200 Yeah, did you hear it? Keep your people happy. 0:07:59.240 --> 0:08:01.960 I will get more out of them and milk them 0:08:02.000 --> 0:08:02.760 for all you can. 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:04.200 And you can keep them happy. 0:08:04.360 --> 0:08:05.400 Whichever way you do it. 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:06.880 Happy people are more productive. 0:08:06.960 --> 0:08:07.760 Are you there? 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:08.200 Yeah? 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:12.320 Stay with us. More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 0:08:21.360 --> 0:08:24.080 With stocks rising after closing at record highs, John Stolfis 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:26.920 of Oppenheimer calling for a street high seventy one hundred 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:28.600 on the S and P by year Rent, writing this 0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:32.720 economic resilience, along with revenue, earnings growth and innovation across 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:35.160 the sectors, remains key in our view to the market's 0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:38.880 ability to continue climbing the proverbial wall of worry. John 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:41.000 joins us now for more. John and Mornig, good morning. 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:43.200 It's that government shut down just another brick in that 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:43.880 wall of worry. 0:08:44.040 --> 0:08:46.680 I think it's another brick in the wall, to quote 0:08:46.760 --> 0:08:52.320 Pink Floyd. But that said, we've seen the markets really 0:08:52.640 --> 0:08:57.520 overcome at traverse hurdles all along this year, and it 0:08:57.600 --> 0:09:01.319 is indeed it's the innovation, it's the rezillions, and it's 0:09:01.320 --> 0:09:04.200 a different structure in terms of the market itself. We 0:09:04.360 --> 0:09:06.520 believe in terms of participants. 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:07.600 You know, the market is. 0:09:07.520 --> 0:09:11.520 Not just the guy with the monocle from the Monopoly game. 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:14.520 You know, it's all kinds of people. And in the 0:09:14.640 --> 0:09:19.559 US it's multi generational people investing for longer term goals. 0:09:19.600 --> 0:09:23.360 So the disturbances that are caused by the potential for 0:09:23.480 --> 0:09:29.760 a short term or intermediate or longer term shutdown of 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:33.280 less concern to them right away as opposed to getting 0:09:33.320 --> 0:09:36.840 money positioned for goals that maybe three, five, seven years. 0:09:37.160 --> 0:09:38.520 Can I build on that, John, Do you think some 0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:41.560 tension between different generations and how they have this market 0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:43.880 should be valued, Some tension between the boomers and what 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:46.480 they think the appropriate multiple is for this stock market 0:09:46.559 --> 0:09:47.840 with a different sectimics. 0:09:48.120 --> 0:09:50.160 Most certainly, I think you know, when you look at 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:54.480 people who've been the Boomer generation, stocks are cheap at 0:09:54.720 --> 0:09:59.920 the sixteen forward multiple. As you go forward in generationally, 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:04.400 people are willing to pay higher multiples for growth. And 0:10:04.480 --> 0:10:06.640 I believe the reason why a lot of it comes 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:10.200 from Ed Yardini, who's for years said that the what 0:10:10.320 --> 0:10:13.439 is it the Wilshire five thousand. There aren't enough stocks 0:10:13.480 --> 0:10:16.959 to really qualify that are publicly traded anymore. For that 0:10:17.200 --> 0:10:19.520 indicaes anymore because it's what is it about thirty five 0:10:19.600 --> 0:10:22.120 hundred stocks at thirty four hundred that you actually have 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:26.200 to choose from? And the thought is here is it's 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:29.839 supply and demand. It's the basic thing of economics, the 0:10:30.360 --> 0:10:35.679 demand for your technology, your hyper growers, the ones who 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:38.320 are well established, deeply embedded in the lives of both 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:42.240 business and the consumer, where we're all on the upgrade. 0:10:41.800 --> 0:10:43.160 Cycle whether we like it or not. 0:10:43.200 --> 0:10:46.120 As I always like to say, this is what's driving 0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:50.560 this market in many ways, and it differentiates not just generationally, 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:54.640 but the difference between traders who are looking at at 0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:58.720 risk to capital a capital put at risk on a 0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:01.680 day to day, minute to minute basis, and intermediate to 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:05.120 longer term investors. When I started in this business forty 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:07.080 two years ago, hard to believe. It's not that I 0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:09.080 didn't think I'd lived this long. I didn't know how 0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:14.640 longyr would happened, but it was the retail investor would 0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:17.480 always come into the market, usually about once the market 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:19.640 was up twenty percent and everybody knew it, and the 0:11:19.640 --> 0:11:22.319 cab driver was asking you for a hot tip if 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:24.480 you saw you had a copy of the Wall Street 0:11:24.520 --> 0:11:28.679 Journal under your arm. Today people are very well informed 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:30.160 by the financial media. 0:11:30.240 --> 0:11:31.640 They have all the arguments. 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:35.480 You get to see the players actually express themselves and 0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:38.280 you see what is it the body language that people 0:11:38.320 --> 0:11:41.800 are using, you know, and it makes it it's actually 0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:45.120 it's remarkably more intimate than it was ever before, and 0:11:45.160 --> 0:11:48.000 people are better informed and better able to work. We'd 0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:52.280 like to think with financial advisors who are working as fiduciaries. 0:11:51.760 --> 0:11:54.080 They also are better sold in the story of the 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:56.280 hopes and dreams of just how much AI can do. 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:57.720 And there is a lot of truth to it. And 0:11:57.800 --> 0:12:00.920 history doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme. Back inthe dot 0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:05.040 com bubble boom and bust, there was aol you've got mail. 0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:06.920 We don't do that anymore. I mean some people still do, 0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:08.079 and you know, go bless you. 0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:11.160 But I'm just wondering going forward, how do you identify 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:13.480 all of the money that's going to be wasted at 0:12:13.480 --> 0:12:15.960 a time where there's a lot of projections and not 0:12:16.160 --> 0:12:18.520 a lot of data, and what ultimately will happen or 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:19.600 how it's going to be applied. 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:20.800 Well, I think, for. 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:23.120 One, is if we just go back to if we 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:25.360 just go back to as recently as the tech bubble, 0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:28.600 things were practically primitive versus where we are today. 0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:31.040 I can remember working at another well. 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:36.960 Known firm headquarters on Broadway in nineteen ninety seven, and 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:39.880 suddenly you would find the internet would go out, you know, 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:42.040 and when you would go home to connect to the corp, 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:43.640 you'd have, you know. 0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:46.600 Sometimes a little device would be and all that stuff. 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:50.719 Today's we still have problems with technology, but it's very 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:54.040 well established and the ideas you know, well, I can 0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:56.360 remember putting dimes in a payphone. 0:12:56.480 --> 0:12:58.800 People don't even know what a payphone used to look like. 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:02.000 I can see sometimes I see an old architecture in 0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:04.280 our building which another firm had before us. 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:07.120 There's actually a group of things and no phone anymore. 0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:08.280 But what are these things for. 0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:11.280 They're for the press as they exit exited, to write 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:14.080 things down. But where we are today, I think a 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:17.560 lot of the stuff will likely prove disappointing, but the 0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:21.040 core will be it's already being invested in and utilized 0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:22.920 to create greater efficiencies. 0:13:23.080 --> 0:13:25.559 I guess you talk about the babies being. 0:13:25.360 --> 0:13:26.640 Thrown out with the bathwater. 0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:29.160 I don't see any babies, and I don't see any 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:30.400 bathwater being thrown out either. 0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:31.640 Nothing's being thrown out. 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:33.360 So how do you identify what that means? 0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:35.480 Well, I'd say actually, on a day to day basis. 0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:38.280 You know, I'm not solely a strategist. 0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:43.280 I also manage money for the firm, both ETF portfolio 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:48.960 with passive indices and then individual stock portfolio. And we've 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:52.480 seen a considerable broadening of the rally that has suddenly 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:58.959 rewarded sectors like industrials. We've seen better attention played to utilities, 0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:01.199 both on as it looks like the FED is going 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:06.600 to be cutting rates going forward, not necessarily enthusiastically, but 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:09.400 on a down payment kind of basis, to show. 0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:11.280 That the rate hike cycle is over. 0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:15.920 What you have effectively is you've got utilities are no 0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:18.320 longer considered as much of a risk as a bomb 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:22.000 proxy because it looks like interest rates are coming down. 0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:25.640 Healthcare has caught a bid as a result of one 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:29.920 company's efforts to reduce prices in the last couple of days. 0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:32.680 I'd mentioned the name of the company because I manage money. 0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:33.640 The firm doesn't let me. 0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:36.280 I want to be pitching stocks that I might or 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:37.200 might not own. 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:39.120 Saying on the FED, how difficult is the end of 0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:42.680 October's meeting going to be? If this government shutdown is prolonged. 0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:45.000 We know we're not likely going to get tomorrow's perils report, 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:47.400 but then what about CPI on October fifteenth as well? 0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:49.840 They might not have all the most relevant up to 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:50.920 date data. 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:54.120 I think, you know, I think it's close enough to 0:14:54.160 --> 0:14:58.160 the September meeting that I think we kind of got 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:02.120 a fairly good idea that the the dot plots showed 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:05.480 that there would likely be a cut in October, and 0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:07.640 I think we're close enough in terms of the data. 0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:10.240 I think the question would be to December, what's going 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:12.840 to happen there? And hopefully by then this will be 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:14.720 behind us, this whole question of the shot. 0:15:14.960 --> 0:15:16.640 Jo'll never mind the Bathwart said, this has been a 0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:19.680 pool party now for six months, and it's getting wilder. 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:23.400 I think spring Break don't want to go there. Look 0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:26.360 at the valuations we're seeing in private markets, five hundred 0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:29.040 billion dollars on the startup now, John, I'm just trying 0:15:29.080 --> 0:15:30.800 to work out, you know, never mind the risk a version. 0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:32.760 I don't see any I saw a bunch of dead 0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:35.240 issuents in September, and people start to get pretty excited 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:37.800 about the future. Still on top of that, when do 0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:39.240 you start to get concerned? 0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:42.600 Well, you know, I play in the public markets as 0:15:42.600 --> 0:15:45.120 opposed to the private markets, so one to inform the other. 0:15:45.680 --> 0:15:50.160 That's well, I think to some extent with the selectivity 0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:52.560 there and what is chosen to move into the private 0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:57.200 equity market is not necessarily everything that play, I think 0:15:57.200 --> 0:16:00.320 that's something to look at as we go forward, and that, 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:03.160 as you mentioned, the money that's being thrown at this 0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:08.200 one particular deal is like the valuation is rather worrisome, 0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:12.200 except if you consider how much is already developed. This 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:15.640 is much, you know, This isn't the primitive stage of 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:20.000 people saying someday we will have a million eyeballs on 0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:23.520 our website. This is companies that know you need billions 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:27.680 of eyeballs and you need to be well capitalized. And 0:16:27.720 --> 0:16:31.200 there is it's not just well capitalized, but the likelihood 0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:34.240 of cash flow generation pretty quickly from here to there. 0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:38.040 Because this week I was at a due diligence. 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:41.960 Meeting in an ETF firm management firm that has ETFs 0:16:42.080 --> 0:16:45.160 right and they're technology people just talking about all the 0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:48.880 investment that's being made here, but by smart people who 0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:52.720 are educated and deeply involved in tech for maybe forty 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:53.600 or fifty years. 0:16:54.600 --> 0:16:58.080 Stay with us, Multilinpex Savannas coming up off to this, 0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:10.280 stocks reaching record highs despite the chaos on Capitol Hill. 0:17:10.520 --> 0:17:13.280 Sarah Hunt of Alpine Saxon words, writing, the government shutdown 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:16.000 may or may not impact a raft of data for investors. 0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:18.600 This may be the trickiest part, at least in the 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:21.080 net term. Sarah joins us now for more. Sarah, good 0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:23.520 morning morning. Do you think this will hold back risk 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:25.520 appetite this month? No sound of that just yet. Do 0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:26.200 you think it will? 0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:29.399 It depends a lot on how long everything takes and 0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:31.560 what kind of data comes out in the interim and 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:34.640 sort of and the kickoff of Q three earning season, right, 0:17:34.680 --> 0:17:37.000 so all these things are going to be important. Earning 0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:38.719 season is going to take on even more importance if 0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:40.520 we have a lack of government data because people want 0:17:40.520 --> 0:17:42.520 to see what companies say. But I think this morning 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:45.920 the news on chat TBT was one of those open ai. 0:17:45.960 --> 0:17:47.960 It was one of those things that certainly helps the 0:17:48.119 --> 0:17:49.320 situation and doesn't hurt it. 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:51.120 It just built on that a little bit more, Why 0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:53.399 does it how the situation sitting here this morning and 0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:56.600 understanding that you've got this private company staying private worth 0:17:57.040 --> 0:17:59.960 five hundred billion dollars, what is the help? 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:02.919 Because the question has been all along this AI has 0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:05.000 been fueling this rally. Right, you take that out and 0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:07.120 all of a sudden, the statistics do not look nearly 0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:10.040 as good. And if you see cracks in that story 0:18:10.119 --> 0:18:12.160 with the other problems that are going on, I think 0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:13.720 you have issues the fact that you saw a. 0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:14.960 Data point that's positive. 0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:17.000 Take it as you want, whether or not that's too bubbly, 0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:19.640 or whether or not it's anything else. The bottom line 0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:21.680 is people are willing to put up some serious money 0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:23.000 to be a part of that story. 0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:24.000 And that's still the case. 0:18:24.320 --> 0:18:26.480 That is going to help the equity markets just because 0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:29.080 it underlies that foundation and it gives it more confidence. 0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:30.240 So don't fight AI. 0:18:30.880 --> 0:18:33.600 Is there increasingly a feeling in your mind, don't fight 0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:36.000 the FED in terms of supporting the rest of the 0:18:36.080 --> 0:18:39.280 non AI universe that hasn't fared as well well. 0:18:39.320 --> 0:18:40.920 I think the FED had a very tough has a 0:18:41.000 --> 0:18:42.760 very tough job going into the next couple of months. 0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:44.320 A lack of data doesn't help it at all. And 0:18:44.560 --> 0:18:46.560 to your point, the ADP numbers, people are going to 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:47.920 look at that, They're going to look at any non 0:18:47.960 --> 0:18:50.280 government data that comes out, because until we get government 0:18:50.320 --> 0:18:54.040 data out, you don't have enough information. But directionally speaking, 0:18:54.320 --> 0:18:56.240 I think that that one of the reasons you saw 0:18:56.280 --> 0:18:58.199 that happen yesterday is that people thought, well, this is 0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:00.760 another excuse to cut rais whether or not that actually 0:19:00.800 --> 0:19:02.879 solves any problems or does what it's supposed to do 0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:05.800 is another question. But the idea that it's coming is 0:19:05.840 --> 0:19:07.440 still positive for equity markets. 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:10.080 I just wonder how long you can turbocharge growth before 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:11.639 inflation becomes a problem. 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:13.119 A lot of people have said it's not. 0:19:13.480 --> 0:19:15.880 And at the same time, you start thinking, if we're 0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:19.199 already above that two percent target and you add juice 0:19:19.400 --> 0:19:22.680 to it, already is a strong economy, albeit concentrated in AI. 0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:25.120 Doesn't that become a real concern later this year? 0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:27.399 Well, I still don't think that we've seen the true 0:19:27.720 --> 0:19:30.560 dynamics of the tariff pricing in pricing right, So whether 0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:32.520