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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

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Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

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Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Folding in

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Speaker 2: the Economics into Fixed Income. Iraw Jersey joins us now

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Speaker 2: from Bloomberg Intelligence. Is this job to report enough to

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Speaker 2: shift the vector of ten year yields? I don't mean

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Speaker 2: the nuance up to basis down three base Hira Jersey.

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Speaker 2: But can we get a vector change in the ten

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Speaker 2: year yield off this report? Well?

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Speaker 3: I do suspect, Tom, if we get a pretty strong

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Speaker 3: number that the market's going to price out, and you know,

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Speaker 3: almost any chance of an early cut, so meaning even

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Speaker 3: a June at this point would be early. So you

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Speaker 3: know that can that can push ten years yields up

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Speaker 3: another ten twelve basis points. In fact, you know, we've

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Speaker 3: we've moved. Well, it's not unusual these days to get

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Speaker 3: you know, eight to twelve basis point moves on on

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Speaker 3: big missus or beats in ten year treasuries. So I

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Speaker 3: think people are repricing things very quickly. People are very

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Speaker 3: quick to get out of risk today. Whereas you know

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Speaker 3: a few years ago everyone was just like happy to

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Speaker 3: sit on their ten year yield even at two percent.

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Speaker 3: But whereas now it's it's a matter of you know, hey,

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Speaker 3: you know, do we want to own this risk going

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Speaker 3: into this you know now that we've seen this number,

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Speaker 3: or you know, do we want to you know, just

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Speaker 3: get out, just wipe our hands of it. And I

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Speaker 3: just I think we're in that ladder, at that ladder

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Speaker 3: stage where where risk is just very very finicky right now.

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Speaker 2: Paul ask a question because I just want to talk

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Speaker 2: about Aston Villa, Brentlford, and we can't. Oh that's going

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Speaker 2: to be we can't do that. Into the jobs report.

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Speaker 4: Tom's looking at the fixture, which I'm not sure that

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Speaker 4: football scores and fixture okay, very good, Hey, are we

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Speaker 4: look at the ten year treasure here four point three

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Speaker 4: one percent. Are we kind of in a trading range here?

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Speaker 4: I don't know, four to four and a half percent.

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Speaker 4: Is that kind of where we are here? As you

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Speaker 4: look at this market?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, more or less.

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Speaker 3: You know that the high on the technical charts was

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Speaker 3: four thirty five, and we broke that earlier this week,

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Speaker 3: and and but but that was not a convincing breakout

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Speaker 3: to the upside. So so I think that yields probably

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Speaker 3: are falling back into that range, call it four oh

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Speaker 3: five to four thirty five for now, But keep in mind,

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Speaker 3: you know, the data we're going to get in a

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Speaker 3: few minutes can completely change that.

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Speaker 5: For sure.

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Speaker 2: What does the real yield signify here? I had a

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Speaker 2: two point zero two ten yure real yield IRA Jersey

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Speaker 2: right now one point nine and it's back a little

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Speaker 2: bit one point ninety five percent? Is that owners to

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Speaker 2: American business? Well?

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Speaker 3: I think that this is you know a lot of

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Speaker 3: people would say that this is normal. You know, we

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Speaker 3: got used to the fifteen years from you know, twenty

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Speaker 3: two thousand and seven to twenty twenty two for real

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Speaker 3: yields being you know, zero or negative, and now we're

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Speaker 3: back at at levels that are more consistent with what

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Speaker 3: occurred between the mid nineties and and the financial crisis

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Speaker 3: of a little more than a decade ago. So so

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Speaker 3: I think that most people would say that this is

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Speaker 3: quote unquote normal. Certainly, it's it's more in the range

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Speaker 3: I think of what the Federal Reserve would like to see.

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Speaker 3: You know, when you look at really yields over time,

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Speaker 3: you know, when really yields are here, usually still have

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Speaker 3: pretty decent growth, and you're certainly seeing that in some

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Speaker 3: of the data.

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Speaker 2: I say with us right now, as we go one

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Speaker 2: minute away from the American Johns, you've bord Lisa matel

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Speaker 2: have some market news, and then we'll go beneath the

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Speaker 2: headline data, Paul Streety, what are you looking at within

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Speaker 2: the report?

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Speaker 4: It's interesting, Tom, obviously, I'm going to be looking at

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Speaker 4: the wages here. I think, you know, the average hourly earnings,

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Speaker 4: you know, zero point three percent on a month to

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Speaker 4: month basis, four point one percent on a yearly basis.

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Speaker 4: That would be down from four point three percent last period.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, kind of dovetails in with we still have

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Speaker 4: decent wage growth, but it is moderating a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Can I just go macro. Yeah, three point eight percent

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Speaker 2: surveyed unemployment. I don't know what it's going to be, folks,

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Speaker 2: But ten years ago, twenty years ago, that was like

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Speaker 2: nirvana exactly.

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Speaker 5: And we've been here for a long time.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm sorry, it's it's up four percent unemployment

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Speaker 2: rate forty five seconds away. Let me tell you the

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Speaker 2: market benchmarks I look at when we go into this.

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Speaker 2: We got to talk oil ninety one dollars a barrel

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Speaker 2: on Brent crude, eighty seven dollars on West Texas intermedia.

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Speaker 2: But far more importantly, futures up nineteen. The ten year

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Speaker 2: yield is four point three two percent, pretty much flat

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Speaker 2: on the day, four point three two percent. That two year,

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Speaker 2: more fed friendly yield four point six five percent, four

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Speaker 2: point six five percent for those keeping score at home,

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Speaker 2: dollar on d X y one oh four point one eight.

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Speaker 2: That's some real obscurity in to a job's report. Always interesting,

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Speaker 2: and of course the revision's important as well. There's coming

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Speaker 2: out now. It's a terrible number, Paul, I mean America,

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Speaker 2: the exceptionalism of America, the defeatism has witnessed in the report. Paul,

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Speaker 2: just give me the number here. The non farm payrolls.

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Speaker 2: Are you kidding me?

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Speaker 4: Three hundred and three thousand, Tom, Just put that in perspective.

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Speaker 4: The consensus was two hundred and fourteen thousand, last period

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Speaker 4: was two hundred and seventy five thousand. Wages we're talking

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Speaker 4: about that up zero point three percent month a month,

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Speaker 4: right in line on an annualized basis of four point

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Speaker 4: one percent, right in line there, But a big big

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Speaker 4: beat on the payroll nine.

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Speaker 2: That's what he's pulled back a little bit, a positive

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Speaker 2: eighteen down to positive eight Just the first people are

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Speaker 2: really going to have to digest this, and I think

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Speaker 2: the revision, which we do not see yet, is important

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Speaker 2: to there. It is right now, not much of a revision,

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Speaker 2: that's key. Two hundred and seventy thousand from two hundred

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Speaker 2: and seventy five. So this is a hugely constructive report

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Speaker 2: in terms of non farm payrolls, and you can get

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Speaker 2: that survey unemployment rate three point eight percent. Markets pull back,

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Speaker 2: they now come back a little bit higher, futures up thirteen,

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Speaker 2: the VIC sixteen point four to five, and in the

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Speaker 2: yield space, as John Ferrell says, a ten year yield

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Speaker 2: four point three seven percent, As Ira Jersey said, the

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Speaker 2: ten year yield lifting up nicely, already up six basis points.

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Speaker 2: Our economic indicators on Jobs Day, bought you by our

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Speaker 2: good friends at Commonwealth, supporting more than two thousand independent

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Speaker 2: thriving business. Commonwealth go where you Grow. Visitcommonwealth dot com

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Speaker 2: to learn more. Ira Jersey with Bloomberg Intelligence. Does a

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Speaker 2: ten year yield in the curve? Does it buttress up

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Speaker 2: against resistance or can it break out to new higher yields?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think the fact they we're over four thirty five,

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Speaker 3: you know, we do target four and a half percent here,

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Speaker 3: so not necessarily today, but nonetheless, I think that this

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Speaker 3: just shows you the economic resilience of the United States

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Speaker 3: right now. And it's going to be hard for the

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Speaker 3: Federal Reserve to make the case to cut interest rates

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Speaker 3: when the data is running as strong as it is,

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Speaker 3: and because of that, you'd probably get the entire curve

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Speaker 3: start to move a little bit higher.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't.

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Speaker 3: I'm just looking at the market here where you know,

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Speaker 3: very slightly bare steepening with with ten year yields underperforming

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Speaker 3: two year yields by two basis points. Not huge, but

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Speaker 3: I would suspect over time that you get maybe a

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Speaker 3: little bit more of a just an upward shift in

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Speaker 3: the yield curve as we price out another fed cut.

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Speaker 2: Paul Sweeney, the real yield comes nicely back. I was

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Speaker 2: one point ninety five and off six basis points goes

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Speaker 2: to two point zero one percent, and that's an indication

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Speaker 2: the lift in yields.

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Speaker 4: Mister Jersey's speaking of I follow top live on the

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg terminal because we have the professional journalist from Bloomberg

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Speaker 4: News and end a current global economy reporter. He basically

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Speaker 4: says another whopper of a data point four that the

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Speaker 4: payroll numbers, and I'll stick with that. That seems also

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Speaker 4: calling out here, the participation rate has essentially recouped some

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Speaker 4: of the losses since last November. Here, so we had

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Speaker 4: the participation rate just inch up a little bit, sixty

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Speaker 4: two point seven, Tom, the consensus was sixty two point six.

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Speaker 4: Last period was sixty two point five, so a little

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Speaker 4: bit higher at labor force participation rate have to see.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for joining us on Apple, CarPlay, YouTube search,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast. Thank you for the vigorous live chat this

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Speaker 2: morning without commercial interruption. Ira Jersey with us here for

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Speaker 2: the next eleven minutes, and we are thrilled to bring

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Speaker 2: you right now. My market economist of twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 2: Neil Data, is to the renaissance macro. I can't say

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Speaker 2: enough about how he nailed the spirit of the consumer

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Speaker 2: and the spirit of nominal GDP. Neil Dota does this

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Speaker 2: jobs report and just as a generalization, a two fourteen

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Speaker 2: look and I'm going up roughly one hundred thousand to

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Speaker 2: three h three on NONFIRMT payrolls. Does that signal in

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Speaker 2: employed America signals continued resilient consumer activity? Well?

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Speaker 6: Sure, I mean if you take the sum product, I mean,

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Speaker 6: it wasn't just the growth in jobs, Tom, but the

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Speaker 6: work week actually extended. You know, I remember the average

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Speaker 6: work week had been a big source of concern, you know,

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Speaker 6: towards the end of last year early this year, and

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Speaker 6: now that's basically been recovering. So it's not just the

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Speaker 6: growth in jobs, it's the work week. So when you

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Speaker 6: take the sum product of jobs, hours and hourly earnings,

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Speaker 6: you're talking about aggregate incomes growing, you know, an excess

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Speaker 6: of six percent with inflation still moderating. That's a push

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Speaker 6: for real income growth in the aggregate for the economy,

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Speaker 6: So that's you know, I mean, that's fine for consumer spending.

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Speaker 2: Neil Dudda Joe out on live chat has a smartest

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Speaker 2: I think the guy's a PhD. He's got you know,

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Speaker 2: he's got the smartest comment. Neil Dutta and Irid Jersey,

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Speaker 2: I've seen meal to you, here's Joe got to wonder,

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Speaker 2: how is everyone so consistently wrong? There's the smartest analysis

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Speaker 2: I've seen today, Neil Dna. What does a gloom crew

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Speaker 2: get wrong as we slide into another dutter like quarter?

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Speaker 6: Well, I think, I mean, look, people talk about long

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Speaker 6: and variable lags to monetary policy, Tom, there are long

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Speaker 6: and variable legs to fiscal policy, and I think that's

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Speaker 6: kind of what people have missed. And you know, you

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Speaker 6: talk about howshold balance sheets, they're quite strong. You're at

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Speaker 6: a point now where you know, global growth is starting

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Speaker 6: to pick up against and that's going to support US

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Speaker 6: manufacturing activity. So you know, I do think that we

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Speaker 6: talked about equal weighted market indexes, right, equal weighted US

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Speaker 6: GDP is improving as well. I mean, you're going to

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Speaker 6: get more growth from things like business equipments. You're going

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Speaker 6: to get more growth from things like inventory investment, residential investment.

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Speaker 6: You might get a little bit less on consumer spending

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Speaker 6: and government, but generally speaking, the breadth of growth in

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Speaker 6: the US is expanding, and I think that's important.

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Speaker 2: So in way Lee had that from west Rock, you're

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Speaker 2: talking about this broading. I just can't say enough, folks

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Speaker 2: about a three hundred thousand non firmperial I don't care

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Speaker 2: about any other babble is Jo says, thank you out

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Speaker 2: on live chat on YouTube. Paul, We've all got this wrong.

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Speaker 2: Even Lisa Matteo got this wrong.

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Speaker 5: Exactly right.

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Speaker 4: Hey, Neil, Tom and I have been discussing over the

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Speaker 4: past few days, and Bloomberg News is doing some very

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Speaker 4: good reporting on the impact of immigration into this country,

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Speaker 4: you know, over the last several years, legal and illegal,

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Speaker 4: and its impact on the labor market. How do you

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Speaker 4: factor that in? You know, I think it's.

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Speaker 6: Just important to kind of take the data as it

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Speaker 6: comes to you and not make, you know, not try

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Speaker 6: to explain it away one way or the other. What

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Speaker 6: I think matters is that if the FED is leaning

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Speaker 6: into this argument that labor supply is the reason why

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Speaker 6: jobs growth is strong and immigration might be one part

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Speaker 6: of that. It could be also rising participation rates. But

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Speaker 6: if labor supply is a reason why jobs growth is strong,

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Speaker 6: then that doesn't mean necessarily that strong jobs growth in

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Speaker 6: and of itself will push the FED away from cuts

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Speaker 6: to Palase point. In other words, a strong number won't

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Speaker 6: push them away from cutting as much as a weak

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Speaker 6: number will push them to cutting. So I think that's

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Speaker 6: the important point about this, is that if labor supplies

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Speaker 6: a big driver of the strong jobs growth, that's going

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Speaker 6: to have important kind of implications for how the FED

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Speaker 6: is thinking about interest rates. And I recognize that obviously

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Speaker 6: the curve is shifting higher yields or rising on the

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Speaker 6: back of this report. That makes sense, But keep in

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Speaker 6: mind that you know, the inflation I I still think

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Speaker 6: is in and narrowing in a slowing path. Okay, I mean,

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Speaker 6: I think it's very interesting that globally, just go down

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Speaker 6: the list, Canada better than expected inflation, Switzerland better than

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Speaker 6: expected inflation, most of Europe better than expected inflation.

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Speaker 2: So the US was.

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Speaker 6: The outlier in the first quarter, at least so far.

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Speaker 6: That kind of speaks to this residual seasonality argument that

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Speaker 6: the Fed's been leaning into and at the same time, domestically,

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Speaker 6: inflation expectations, guys haven't been going up right like, so

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Speaker 6: you have to kind of go to first principles. Even

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Speaker 6: with this number, productivity probably picked up in the first quarter,

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Speaker 6: and that means that unit labor costs are under control

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Speaker 6: because wage growth over the last three still running about

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Speaker 6: four percent.

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Speaker 2: Meel doe it with this renaissance macro here, we're commercial

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Speaker 2: free in this job's report across America. Good morning. The

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Speaker 2: headline out of Bloomberg News is simple, Paul Sweeney us

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Speaker 2: job's roar again again? Is operative word is payrolls jump

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Speaker 2: three one hundred and three thousand. Why don't you bring

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Speaker 2: an Ira Jersey. He's been looking at what Assenville is

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Speaker 2: going to do with Brentford, so let's get them back

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Speaker 2: into the game.

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Speaker 4: Ira Jersey chfus interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, is

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Speaker 4: still with us. Hey, I'm looking at a red headline

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Speaker 4: across the Bloomberg terminal. Fed swaps shift full pricing of

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Speaker 4: Reid cuts to September from July. Boy, that's your market

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Speaker 4: reacting pretty quickly. What do you make of that?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so you know the market's obviously moving quite a lot,

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Speaker 3: And if you use a WRP function, or if you

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Speaker 3: look at our SOFA option sentiment model, which we run

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Speaker 3: at the end of each day, you know, we were

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Speaker 3: pricing for obviously six twenty five base point interest rate

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Speaker 3: cuts just two months ago, and now we're pricing for

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Speaker 3: actually a fifteen percent chance of a hike by the

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Speaker 3: end of this year. So you know, there's been a

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Speaker 3: significant seed change. And I think that this data like

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Speaker 3: we are getting today just feeds into that narrative that,

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Speaker 3: you know, can the FED actually cut if the data

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Speaker 3: remains as good and the answers probably know and you know,

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Speaker 3: but clearly they think that they're going to need to cut.

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Speaker 3: But if they're data dependent and the data is this good,

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Speaker 3: it's going to be hard for them to make that case.

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Speaker 3: You know. I agree that that when you look at

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Speaker 3: the entire swath of data globally, that there are pockets

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Speaker 3: of weakness, but that just hasn't fed into any of

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Speaker 3: the US data yet, or at least enough of it

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Speaker 3: to make it be able to convincingly make the case

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Speaker 3: that the FED needs got imminently.

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Speaker 2: And Paul Dunna said this as well. I mean, you

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Speaker 2: go nation to nation to inflation reports. You know, I

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Speaker 2: get there's like some inflation worries, but at the bottom line,

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Speaker 2: there's a resilient disinflation that seems to be in place.

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Speaker 2: I look at Switzerland, but you know there's other places

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Speaker 2: where you got some real disinflation.

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Speaker 4: And Eric just real quickly despite the data here. I

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Speaker 4: think the rhetoric, I'm kind of surprised. I think the

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Speaker 4: market some time time surprised that the rhetoric FED Chairman J.

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Speaker 5: Powell continues to be on the margin dubbish. What do

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Speaker 5: you make of that?

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm not sure it was dubbsh I mean what

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Speaker 3: he said yesterday or even what they said, what a

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Speaker 3: preponderance of the speaker said. They said that they're data

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Speaker 3: dependent and that they won't cut if the data is resilient,

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Speaker 3: that they're going to let the data lead them so

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Speaker 3: and I'll take them at face value when they say that.

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Speaker 3: So if you see data like this where wages are

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Speaker 3: growing recently, you have higher you have the higher participation rate,

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Speaker 3: which is good, and at the same time three hundred

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Speaker 3: thousand jobs being created. You know that's not an economy

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Speaker 3: that's falling out of bed deet.

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Speaker 2: Look for the reports Samira Jersey and his team here

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Speaker 2: through this Friday here on how this jobs report, there's

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Speaker 2: roaring job report folds into your fixed income space. Final

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Speaker 2: comments from Neil Dotta. You know, dota worst nominal GDP

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Speaker 2: and give us the douta view for Q three and

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Speaker 2: Q four of this year.

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Speaker 6: Well, I mean, right now, if you look at it,

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Speaker 6: a nominal GDP is probably running six percent in the

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Speaker 6: current quarter, maybe somewhere between five to six percent, So

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Speaker 6: that's a pretty pretty strong number. Yes, but I do

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Speaker 6: think that we are moderating. I think GDP growth is

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Speaker 6: going to probably be in the two to two and

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Speaker 6: a half percent range, and I think inflation will be

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Speaker 6: around there too, so we're probably going to be, you know,

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Speaker 6: closer to four and a half five percent nomenal growth

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Speaker 6: by the end of the year. And you know, again,

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Speaker 6: I think for your viewers, what's important is growth in

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Speaker 6: and of itself doesn't keep the FED from cutting. I mean,

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Speaker 6: this is really neutral is higher, and that means that

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Speaker 6: all the FECT can really do is recalibrate policy. It

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Speaker 6: doesn't necessarily mean that they can't cut at all. And

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Speaker 6: I think that that's an important nuance because we're used

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Speaker 6: to very much. The Fed either cutting a lot to

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Speaker 6: one percent or zero, going to zerve right or not.

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Speaker 2: And you know, that.

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Speaker 6: Kind of recalibration of policy is something we haven't really

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Speaker 6: been seeing in a while. So I do think that

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Speaker 6: if inflation slows, I mean that requires some adjustment of policy. Ultimately,

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Speaker 6: the FED believes they control inflation, and if inflation starts

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Speaker 6: to come better than expect it over the next few months,

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Speaker 6: as I think it will, then you know, all all

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Speaker 6: SQL that means that they're running a bit tighter policy.

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Speaker 2: Mail doatta, Thank you so much, Neil Dotta with renaissance

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Speaker 2: macro optimism on America. Forty four years ago, we didn't

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Speaker 2: see the American labor economy like we see it now.

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Speaker 2: Who at the margins doing that? You make fun of it,

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Speaker 2: but I'm sorry. Places like zip recruiter, YEP are absolutely

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Speaker 2: nailing it. You should see a report. We're not going

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Speaker 2: to go into this massive victory lab for Julia Pollock,

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Speaker 2: but her report on jobs predictions is scary prescient. This morning,

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Speaker 2: the optimist Julia Pollock joins us from Zip Recruiter right now. Julia,

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Speaker 2: congratulations on a great non farm payrolls call. As we

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Speaker 2: pop out to three hundred thousand. What does ZIP recruiters

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Speaker 2: see right now, granular in your digital world, what do

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Speaker 2: you see in the labor economy?

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Speaker 1: So we see very strong participation with applications per posting

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Speaker 1: risings over ten percent over the year, So labor availability

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Speaker 1: is high, and I think that's one reason companies keep

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Speaker 1: adding workers. It's becoming easier to hire them.

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Speaker 5: And you see that of the.

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Speaker 1: Wage growth data today, which is really sort of a

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Speaker 1: great thing to see in this Goldilocks report. It shows

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Speaker 1: a strong, strong labor market, but where wages are not overheating,

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Speaker 1: this is not necessarily an inflationary report.

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Speaker 4: Who's hiring out there, Julia, We're the areas that are

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Speaker 4: seeing some strength.

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Speaker 1: So that answer to that question has been very boring. Lately,

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Speaker 1: we see the same industries leading in month and month growth,

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Speaker 1: year of a year growth, again and again and again,

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Speaker 1: and it's those asical industries, healthcare, the public sector, and

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Speaker 1: leisure hospitality. But recently, in just the last month or two,

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Speaker 1: we are starting to see signs of life in these

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Speaker 1: sectors that we're struggling before, retail, manufacturing, construction. So the

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Speaker 1: rolling recession could be turning into a rolling recovery.

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Speaker 4: So, Julia, are you folks at ZipRecruiter, I mean you

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Speaker 4: see this data real time here. How's it evolved over

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Speaker 4: the past couple of years in terms of people signing

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Speaker 4: up the ZipRecruiter? What are they looking for? How long

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Speaker 4: are they there? What's the feeling from employers? How's that

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Speaker 4: evolved over the past couple of years.

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Speaker 1: Well, every US employer at the same time was scrambling

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Speaker 1: to hire in a big hurry, and it was more

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Speaker 1: competitive than ever before between about mid twenty twenty one

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Speaker 1: to late twenty twenty two, and then of course with

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Speaker 1: the FEDS supersized rate hikes, everyone became quite cautious and worried.

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Speaker 1: Employers were wired there'd be a downturn. They didn't want

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Speaker 1: to overhire into a downturn, and so we saw quite

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Speaker 1: a change. And for twenty months we've seen it a

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Speaker 1: downward slide and online job but that's turned around the

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Speaker 1: last two months.

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Speaker 2: Julie, you retain your heroing. I mean, I mean Paul

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Speaker 2: framed this out. I mean not only your experience at RAND,

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Speaker 2: in her public service with the United States Navy, she

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Speaker 2: was smart enough. I mean, think of all the fancy

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Speaker 2: people we talk about who go to places where it

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Speaker 2: rains thirty days a week. She's out of Pepperdine, which

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Speaker 2: is like the smartest place to go to college if

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Speaker 2: you want, Julia, are you the advantage in your analysis

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Speaker 2: of the American labor economy because you're not in three

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Speaker 2: ZIP codes of New York or two ZIP codes of

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Speaker 2: Washington DC? Are you advantage because you know which pool

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Speaker 2: to swim in at Pepperdine?

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Speaker 1: I do think it helps to be at a remove

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Speaker 1: from Washington, d C, sometimes in Wall Street, and to

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Speaker 1: have sort of an outsiders perspective.

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Speaker 2: And of course, okay, you.

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Speaker 1: Know, the sunny California sunshine does help one to be

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Speaker 1: an optimistic.

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Speaker 2: Oh really, I didn't know that.

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Speaker 1: Okay, against the US economy.

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Speaker 2: We've had a biblical eluge here. Very quickly, Julie, this

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Speaker 2: is important. The over lake Paul and I are seeing

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Speaker 2: is immigration in legal and illegal migration matter. How do

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Speaker 2: you fold those in at zip recruiter?

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Speaker 1: Well, you know, Ernie Tideski has fantastic research on this recently,

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Speaker 1: and he shows that our employment growth in the US

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Speaker 1: here would have been much stronger than that in Europe

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Speaker 1: even absent immigration. But immigration likely explains about twenty percent

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Speaker 1: of it. You know, I saw estimates three point three

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Speaker 1: million immigrants came into the United States in twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 1: well above the one point one million that had been

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Speaker 1: predicted before. So this is a huge source of labor supply.

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Speaker 1: But also the immigrants buy services and goods, and so

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Speaker 1: they prop up consumer spending and revenues at businesses and hiring.

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Speaker 4: So juiya take this labor data that we receive today

434
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 4: as well some of the other data we've received over

435
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 4: the past couple of weeks.

436
00:22:58,320 --> 00:22:59,679
Speaker 5: What do you think the Feederal Reserve is going to

437
00:22:59,720 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 5: do here?

438
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 1: What's your view at Zyprecruter, Well, I think the Fed

439
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 1: worser will be pretty happy to see this data. I mean,

440
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,879
Speaker 1: their dual mandate, after all, is to keep the labor

441
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 1: market strong and prices under control, and this report seems

442
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 1: to say we can do both. We can walk in

443
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,879
Speaker 1: chew gum, We can create lots and lots of jobs

444
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 1: and have a healthy economy without wage growth causing a

445
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 1: wage price spiral. So I think three cuts are not

446
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 1: off the table after this report.

447
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 2: Julia, thank you so much. Congratulations on a shocking depression

448
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 2: pre labor economy.

449
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 1: Report she's out of always worried about going to go

450
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 1: on those stays.

451
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:41,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I don't make predictions anymore because I've been wrong.

452
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 2: If you're wrong for twenty years, you just give up.

453
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 2: Julia Pollock at two hundred and fifty thousand, and we

454
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 2: clocked in hit a solid three hundred thousand. Here's what happens, folks,

455
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 2: and the blur that we have. And you know the

456
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 2: difference is Paul's got a beverage in his hand looking

457
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 2: at the surf up in New Jersey. I'm at home

458
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 2: with that bill going, oh, I got another economic report,

459
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 2: and then there's something that just stops you in your tracks.

460
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 2: As a research economist, Claudia Islam has done this for years.

461
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 2: It's not a one off. She's transformed economics with a

462
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,680
Speaker 2: Sam rule. I'm not going to go into it, her

463
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,400
Speaker 2: work at Michigan, her work at the Fed. And then

464
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:26,680
Speaker 2: the other day she wrote an absolutely definitive essay for

465
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 2: Bloomberg on part time employment. Doctor Sam joins us on

466
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 2: this job's day, Claudia, I'm going to cut to the chase.

467
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 2: Part time employment is second rate employment? Is it.

468
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 7: Not necessarily? Part time employment gives people flexibility when we

469
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 7: need to really look hard at in particular, is when

470
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,640
Speaker 7: we find out people are working part time but they'd

471
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 7: rather be working full time. Economic conditions are bad, they

472
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 7: got their hours cut, they can't find a job like

473
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 7: That's when it's really bad. Now, we can always make

474
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:02,359
Speaker 7: part time jobs better, but they do have flexibility for

475
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 7: people as they have caregiving other responsibilities they just can't

476
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 7: do full time. Part time for economic reasons is really low,

477
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 7: and we needed those part time jobs to come back

478
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 7: so that people can have that flexibility.

479
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 2: How does immigration in the new fears of America over

480
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 2: migration fold into part time America. Somebody coming across the border,

481
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:26,959
Speaker 2: somebody coming into JFK or LAX. They're going to take

482
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 2: four jobs and take away my job. Speak to that stereotype.

483
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 7: Immigrants are one of the heroes in this labor market recovery.

484
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 7: You don't see the headlines anymore about the labor shortages.

485
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 7: We got more labor, not fewer customers. That's what the

486
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 7: FED does. Immigrants are not the only group, but they

487
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:50,199
Speaker 7: have come in big time and taken jobs that were open.

488
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 7: We have not seen the unemployment rates for US born

489
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,639
Speaker 7: individuals rising. It's more for the foreign morn because it

490
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 7: takes a little while to get all the papers or

491
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 7: find the job. So really they solved a big problem

492
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 7: and are taking pressure off of employment. So when we

493
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,399
Speaker 7: think about them in the labor market, and they're doing

494
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 7: some real.

495
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 4: Good Claudia again, the really strong nonfarm payroll data coming

496
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,479
Speaker 4: out today. I'm going to focus on the average hourly

497
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 4: earnings here on an annualized basis four point one percent,

498
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,400
Speaker 4: ticking down a little bit from last period four point

499
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 4: three percent. How do you think about the wage environment

500
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 4: in the US labor market?

501
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 7: So, in general, we've seen the labor market really settle

502
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 7: into a good rhythm. We had a big payroll number today,

503
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 7: but you look back over several months, it's been pretty

504
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:41,399
Speaker 7: good little change. If we settle into an expansion, and

505
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 7: the same goes for wages. We have seen wages be stronger,

506
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 7: and yet inflation has been coming down. Right, we can

507
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 7: have a more productive, more workers and that can support

508
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 7: a more dynamic economy. So wage of growth is probably

509
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 7: still going to come down some. We are still working

510
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 7: through getting the workers in and we're not going to

511
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 7: see the big wage gains again during the labor shortages.

512
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 7: Probably what we should expect we got to get to

513
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 7: a sustainable expansion. And yet there's no reason to fear

514
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 7: those numbers, right, they have not been inflationary in the

515
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 7: way that some people were worried a year or two ago.

516
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 4: So, Claudia, just looking at the futures markets and the

517
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 4: FED swaps here, it looks like the market's pushing out

518
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 4: a rate cut. Maybe that June isn't even a lock anymore.

519
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 4: How do you think the Federal Reserve is going to

520
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:31,880
Speaker 4: react to some of the data?

521
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:38,360
Speaker 2: Never is a governor of the film. Absolutely, pizza Claudia

522
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,880
Speaker 2: would go nuts. I mean it'd be like your.

523
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 4: Diet exactly, Claudia, do you think the Fed's going to

524
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 4: react to some of the data we saw today?

525
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 5: So the Fed.

526
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 7: Leaves lives in the real world, right, So they're looking

527
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 7: at these jobs, but next week is really the main event.

528
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:52,959
Speaker 3: Right.

529
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,640
Speaker 7: They have said multiple times inflation has got to come down.

530
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 7: They are not weighing in on, oh, the unemployment rate

531
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 7: is too high or the economy is growing too strong.

532
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 7: That's not their job, right, They've got to get inflation

533
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 7: down to two percent and unemployment low. And if this economy,

534
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 7: you know, has you know, the legs and can keep running.

535
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 7: That is not for the FED to step in and stop.

536
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 7: They don't want to. They just want their dual mandate

537
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 7: and their job is done. So but I see it, like,

538
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 7: I'm uncomfortable with the fact that we don't talk about

539
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 7: the risk of the labor market. And yet I mean, frankly,

540
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 7: you get these good jobs numbers, you know it likely

541
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 7: unless something blows up, it'll take time. And this is

542
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 7: a very like you know, they're they're they're really scared

543
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 7: of acting too fast. So yeah, I think pushing things out,

544
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 7: I do not see them not cutting. I think that

545
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 7: is too pessimistic.

546
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 2: You know. I look, Claudia, it's your wonderful essay, and

547
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 2: you've got out of Vanderbilt Rachel Donnelly and Adam Sean

548
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 2: Blackler talking about the difference of the states. Of all

549
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 2: of our audience. You got states with high wages, high

550
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 2: social benefits. They've got a different attitude than states that's say,

551
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 2: go out and get a job. We're not going to

552
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 2: give you any benefits. Who has the better labor economy

553
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 2: out of that?

554
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 7: What I think to say about this labor market is

555
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 7: take the win. We have had a massive recovery and

556
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 7: frankly move past that in terms of working on some

557
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 7: structural problems we had before, and yet keep pushing right like,

558
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 7: there are ways and particularly people on the margins. Part

559
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 7: time jobs fit in that space. Also low paid full

560
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 7: time jobs. Not every job in this country is good enough.

561
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 7: A lot of them are, even those have gotten better.

562
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 7: And yes, these researchers looked at the importance of decoupling

563
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 7: a lot of the benefits that we need from employment,

564
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 7: and particularly from full time employment. And it pays dividends

565
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 7: to people, obviously, and it makes our economy more productive.

566
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 7: Workers that are really engaged, they can do.

567
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 2: More if Paul, I think one thing not spoken about

568
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 2: here is what percentage of a paycheck is consumed spend

569
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 2: right away. And I think there's a whole bunch of

570
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 2: people in the Bloomberg world. I'm as guilty as this

571
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 2: as anyone to go, well, they're maxing out there for one, kay,

572
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 2: and they're saving for this and they're going to buy

573
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 2: a rivian belonging. They're spending their money in the economy.

574
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 5: So Claudia, let's go right there.

575
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 4: I mean, again, with this backdrop of a strong labor market,

576
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 4: how do you feel the consumer these days.

577
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 7: Oh, the American consumer is strong, right, and if you

578
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 7: get a virtuous cycle going between a strong labor market

579
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 7: and a strong consumer, that really can keep the US

580
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 7: economy going. And the reality is a lot of Americans,

581
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 7: either by need or by choice, spend their paychecks.

582
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 6: Right.

583
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 7: But we also saw that when people were getting more money,

584
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 7: particular at the bottom, they will put some away that

585
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 7: quote unquote excess savings. That was because we gave people

586
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 7: the money they needed to be able to save.

587
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 2: Claudia Ross has a brilliant live chat comment here. Thank

588
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 2: you Ross for cutting to the chase. And maybe this

589
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 2: is unfair Claudia, but I'm going to take a shot

590
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 2: with your list view of our nation. What's the distinction

591
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 2: between legal and illegal immigrants or migrants? What's the partition

592
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 2: right now that doctor Somem sees between somebody coming and

593
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 2: legal doing the paperwork in that they're in Queens, New York, whatever,

594
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 2: in New Jersey, whatever, and somebody coming over the border illegal. Right.

595
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 7: So I very specifically cut my lens on the labor

596
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 7: market and solving labor shortages. And in that sense, I

597
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 7: mean if people can get a job as immigrants, then

598
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 7: they're filling a job that was open, right, it's so

599
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 7: I won't go into I mean, obviously, people coming in

600
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 7: different paths have different constraints on them. A lot of

601
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 7: the people coming into the country right now that don't

602
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 7: have permanent legal status or individuals that were waiting for

603
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 7: hearing if they can get asylum status or not, and

604
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 7: for them it takes longer to get the paperwork legally work.

605
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 7: So yes, there are different groups, but at the end

606
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 7: of the day, they are contributing to our economy and

607
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 7: that's in that space, like that's an important lens to.

608
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 2: Take doctor Sam, thank you so much. Really controversial, like

609
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 2: can I'll get it out this weekend, folks. Spectacular Bloomberg

610
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 2: opinion essay from Claudia Sam on this raging debate over

611
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 2: full time, part time employment, Bloomberg surveillance and our newspapers

612
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 2: with Lisa Matteo misery and order. I'm surrounded by Yankee

613
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 2: fans joining us now after the success of Just metten

614
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 2: the other day on Yankee's opening day, Damien Sasaur, Hi,

615
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 2: can they really play at the caliber of the Braves

616
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 2: and the Dodgers?

617
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 8: Eighty one thirty nine and one all time and home

618
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 8: openers they've won six and the last seven since twenty seventeen.

619
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 8: Stron Men facing his former team.

620
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 5: After two years with the Cobs. I think it's a

621
00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 5: zero point zero zero er.

622
00:32:59,320 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 2: Let's straw.

623
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 5: That is a duke guy Romans.

624
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 2: But Marcus Stroman, to me, is really a lynchpin here

625
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 2: for Lonessa Cortez. Isn't you know you need Johnny Padres. Yeah, yeah,

626
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 2: you got to have a number three. Is Stroman their

627
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 2: number three? Well?

628
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 8: I think Stroman can actually, I mean the way he's pitching,

629
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 8: I mean again, he could be a number two. I mean,

630
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 8: certainly we need you know, Cortest has not been well.

631
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 8: But I mean, let's just let's just take a second

632
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 8: here and enjoy the fact that the Red Sox swept

633
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 8: the A's in Oakland. That's one of the last Sacramento.

634
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 8: They're in second place in the East. You know, our

635
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 8: little brothers there up north, you know, so we're really.

636
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 2: Happled with that. Really happy Mike from Bedford just emailed

637
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 2: and it's a time you'll love the Orioles time. Just

638
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 2: so you know, let's just started Damian Sasar with us here.

639
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 2: Allow us to talk about Damien. Join us, Yes, in

640
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 2: the mateo moment, Lisa, what do you have?

641
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 9: All right? So we're starting with the Wall Street Journal.

642
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 9: They broke down how far one hundred dollars goes at

643
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,479
Speaker 9: the grocery store after five years of food inflation. So

644
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 9: they're saying they got the information. They analyzed Niels and

645
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:00,160
Speaker 9: i Q dat of commonly pers it some items we're

646
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 9: valued of one hundred dollars in twenty nineteen. Today that

647
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 9: same grocery list costs thirty six and a half percent more.

648
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 9: The biggest price surge eggs sports drinks that climbed about

649
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,800
Speaker 9: forty percent. Shoppers would have to remove about thirty seven

650
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 9: dollars of items to spend that same amount as they

651
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:18,240
Speaker 9: did in twenty nineteen.

652
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:19,319
Speaker 2: Puts it in red.

653
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:21,319
Speaker 8: How much you think a fen dog, the end dog

654
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 8: by Pesky Paul, You think of fend Dog's going to

655
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 8: be expensive?

656
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 2: This?

657
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 3: Ye?

658
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 5: A little bit higher, I guess.

659
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 4: And the problem is, Lisa, those preces they don't come

660
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 4: down per se, right, So the rate of inflation is lower.

661
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 5: That's a good story.

662
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 4: But okay, I'm getting less than my in my bread

663
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,240
Speaker 4: basket f dog.

664
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 2: Yesterday and for the first time in ages, I ordered

665
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 2: like expensive beef twenty eight dollars a pound, Paul, what's

666
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,520
Speaker 2: that piece of beef? Go in those fancy steakhouses you

667
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 2: eat at exactly? You up to eighty bucks.

668
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 4: We're actually a couple of weeks ago we were at

669
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 4: the top place locally and it was fifty eight dollars

670
00:34:58,200 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 4: for my New York strip.

671
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 5: No, I take my sixty eight dollars. I take the twelve. Yes,

672
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 5: I know we have.

673
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 2: To move on. But as this is the number one

674
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:14,280
Speaker 2: election thing other than immigration and migration, yeap, people, I'm sorry,

675
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 2: it's I mean, fancy people like us are pounding. Can you,

676
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 2: I mean half of America's going, what is this about? Continue?

677
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:22,879
Speaker 2: We could talk on this all day.

678
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 9: Okay, So the price of gold, we've been talking about

679
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 9: that right heading records. Young investors are turning to it,

680
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 9: and they're getting it at Costco my favorite police Yes, okay,

681
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:33,920
Speaker 9: so they get the gold bars and a dollar for

682
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 9: the fifty hot dog at the same time. Imagine that.

683
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 2: Right.

684
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:40,800
Speaker 9: You can go online select stores in the jewelry department,

685
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 9: but they're selling out fast. They limit true bars perperse

686
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 9: and that's it. But gold Buyer is saying that Costco's

687
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:50,719
Speaker 9: prices they're lower than they see at other retailers. And

688
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 9: then the younger generation.

689
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 2: We digress and we have an expert with US Gold

690
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 2: twenty three hundred. Is China buying at the margin.

691
00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 8: They are, I mean gold's up ten percent year to date,

692
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 8: but whichs really interesting. You got Brent up eighteen percent,

693
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 8: you got copper up nine point two percent, I mean gold,

694
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 8: copper and gold, we're only up three percent a few

695
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:06,760
Speaker 8: weeks ago.

696
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 2: The margin, that's the margin.

697
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:10,799
Speaker 8: Absolutely, yeah, no, absolutely, It's not just China, it's other

698
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,879
Speaker 8: central banks as well. But reserves are rebuilding and being

699
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 8: replenished across the emerging marketsphere. We can talk about all

700
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:17,320
Speaker 8: the smart stuff if you want.

701
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 2: To, we have to balance it. You know, you made

702
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 2: an interesting point.

703
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 5: I just want to highlight this.

704
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 8: We have payrolls coming up, but the difference between the

705
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 8: payroll the establishment survey and the household survey, and along

706
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 8: our chief economists talking about this on the tape this morning,

707
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 8: JP Morgan's been talking about this. This is why we

708
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:36,399
Speaker 8: see unemployment ticking up, but these huge payroll numbers. It's

709
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 8: because not only are we getting more people being hired,

710
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 8: but the labor forces rising because of immigration and migrant workers.

711
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 2: As you point out, if you weren't listening in the

712
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:49,240
Speaker 2: last hour, we discussed this with camera Jennifer.

713
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 9: Okay, next, all right, four seasons yacht trips are going

714
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 9: to be the priciest way to cruise. Yes, okay, they're

715
00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:00,799
Speaker 9: debuting their first ninety five Sweet vessel in January twenty

716
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 9: twenty six. Are you ready for the price? Seven nights

717
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 9: in the Caribbean costs no less than twenty thousand per suite,

718
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 9: up to three hundred and thirty thousand for that nearly

719
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 9: ten thousand square foot glass and closed Sweet if you

720
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 9: want the fancy one. So that's how much you're spending.

721
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 9: That doesn't include food, that doesn't include drinks.

722
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:20,800
Speaker 5: That's separate.

723
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,520
Speaker 9: But what you get is more space. Because they're saying

724
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:25,720
Speaker 9: it's the same size as other cruise ships that carry

725
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 9: like seven hundred passengers, they'll only carry two hundred and

726
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 9: twenty two max. That's a difference.

727
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 5: That's because you don't like people. I don't like people.

728
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 8: You don't You were born for Bloomberg surance.

729
00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 5: All right.

730
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:46,280
Speaker 9: How to take the perfect selfie during Toller solar eclipse?

731
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 5: Totally, there is a way to do this.

732
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 9: Okay, So the light can make it tough to take

733
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 9: the selfie because a lot of people are going to

734
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 9: be doing this, so you have to take them and

735
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:57,320
Speaker 9: wear red or green outfits. On the day of the eclipse,

736
00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:00,399
Speaker 9: because the sky grows darker, the colors become a little muted,

737
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 9: so you have to pop. But it can be dangerous.

738
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 9: That is the thing that we want to point out.

739
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 9: Even though you're facing away from the sun, those UV

740
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,359
Speaker 9: rays can bounce off your phone screen.

741
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,320
Speaker 5: Into your eyes. Did you know that? Okay?

742
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 9: And you have to make sure you're wearing those solar

743
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:15,319
Speaker 9: eclipse glasses because there are a lot of phony ones

744
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 9: out there.

745
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 5: We got our some Walmart.

746
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:22,359
Speaker 2: You did really really hilarious, folks. Really even and we're

747
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:25,479
Speaker 2: not in the total eclipse Rochester, New York is sort

748
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:28,839
Speaker 2: of northwest to here. It's very very dangerous and you've

749
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:32,720
Speaker 2: got to have legitimate I'm sure Walmart vetted him eye thinks.

750
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:35,359
Speaker 2: But the thing I want to mention is even if

751
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,399
Speaker 2: it's cloudy and you can't see the sun and the moon,

752
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:43,720
Speaker 2: the darkness is spectacular. It can be four minutes, five minutes,

753
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 2: it's the middle of the day. The birds go mental

754
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 2: Damien Sasa or it goes mental that it.

755
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 5: Can be very very Monday. Monday just emails in.

756
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 2: It says time. You look like the assistant to the

757
00:38:55,200 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 2: Travelings of New York Yankees pushed.

758
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:02,439
Speaker 9: Back their time at the starting time for the game

759
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:03,800
Speaker 9: Monday because of the eclips.

760
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, so what it's going to be? I thought it

761
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 5: was time?

762
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 3: No.

763
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 4: No, Well did a certain president, former president just look

764
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:10,799
Speaker 4: right into the sun.

765
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 5: He did?

766
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:14,240
Speaker 4: Fine, he that's not funny.

767
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,919
Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best

768
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:23,720
Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also

769
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:27,799
Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast

770
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 2: channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from

771
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:35,279
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772
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:39,080
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773
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always on Bloomberg Radio,

774
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:46,360
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.