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Speaker 1: You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football show,

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Speaker 1: which originally aired on YouTube. If you'd like to catch

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Speaker 1: the show live this offseason, you can head to the

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Speaker 1: Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot com. Slash

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Speaker 1: at Late Round FF will be live each Wednesday at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern without further ado. Here's this week's episode.

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Speaker 2: Welcome In. Welcome In David Kitchen alongside JJ, Zacharyese and JJ.

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Speaker 2: How are you.

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Speaker 1: I'm good? You know, I will say I've been solo

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Speaker 1: parenting since Sunday. He is, you know, got a seven

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Speaker 1: and three year old at home, and I've been doing

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Speaker 1: it all alone. My daughter has danced every night. She

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Speaker 1: has danced Monday through Thursday, every single night. And so

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Speaker 1: the tough part is, you know, navigating the timing of

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Speaker 1: the dance class, the picking up my son at his school,

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Speaker 1: the just putting it all together. And so I do

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Speaker 1: want to just shout out all the single parents out

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Speaker 1: there who have to do this day in and day out. Fortunately,

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Speaker 1: my wife comes back tonight, so tomorrow it's going to

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Speaker 1: be paradise.

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Speaker 2: Here's what I know. You cannot say. You can't say

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Speaker 2: that you're babysitting.

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Speaker 1: No, that is No, you don't say your babysitting, it's

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Speaker 1: your exactly. That's what I'm saying.

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Speaker 2: I'm saying to there's some possibly new parents or parents

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Speaker 2: are out there. You can't say babysitting about your your

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Speaker 2: own children when.

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Speaker 1: You're so you are being a parent. Look, I pull

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Speaker 1: my weight, you know, every day. It's just it's another

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Speaker 1: level whenever there's things that you know, my wife, like

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Speaker 1: my wife is sort of like the dance mom. Like

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Speaker 1: I do tuesdays for with my daughter for dance, but

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Speaker 1: my wife does the other three days and she's you know,

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Speaker 1: taking on the dance mom role and stuff and and

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Speaker 1: all that. But I, you know, so like I still

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Speaker 1: do stuff. It's just that when you have I don't

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Speaker 1: know how people do it with like four or five kids.

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Speaker 1: I have no idea. You know, mister Tuttle out there

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Speaker 1: with his clan, roto Pat with his clan. Oh yeah,

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Speaker 1: there's just there's just people out there with with lots

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Speaker 1: of children. I have no clue how you're able to

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Speaker 1: juggle all that. But my my week has kind of

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Speaker 1: been like, you know, get my work done during the day,

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Speaker 1: of course, but then you know, there's there's a time

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Speaker 1: period like three thirty to seven every day to eight

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Speaker 1: where it's full blown. Can't be working because I don't

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Speaker 1: have anyone helping me with the kids. And then at

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Speaker 1: night I'm just grinding out these prospect profiles.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, someone said to us JJ, I'm not gonna say

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Speaker 2: who it was, but they they're a parent. But they

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Speaker 2: also said they don't get up until eight thirty am. Yes,

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Speaker 2: and yeah, every time I have to get up early, someone.

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Speaker 1: In the fantasy industry. Yeah, that's the only that's the

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Speaker 1: only clue we're going And that's the only clue.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not saying who it is, but every time

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Speaker 2: I have to wake up early, I'm like, imagine not

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Speaker 2: having a wake up.

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Speaker 1: What time you wake up every morning? Six?

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Speaker 2: Around six? This morning, I wrote, woke up a little earlier.

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Speaker 1: Mine's usually in mine six thirty to seven.

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Speaker 2: Usually you're getting some times you wake up before me.

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Speaker 1: So in the timeframe, I mean, it's still it's all relative.

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Speaker 2: No kind of speaking of prospect guy, though, JJ I did.

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Speaker 2: We had someone ask for the countdown timer for those

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Speaker 2: that are listening. You know, we've got the uh, the

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Speaker 2: little spreadsheet theme going on, and we have days until

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Speaker 2: so like three hundred and fifty four days into the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl, fifty seven days until the NFL Draft, one

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Speaker 2: hundred and ninety seven days until the twenty twenty six

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Speaker 2: NFL season, and JJ, I almost didn't do this because

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Speaker 2: I don't want to get you like anxious before we start.

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Speaker 1: I feel I'm confident. I feel good all right.

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Speaker 2: Nineteen days until the Prospect Guide launches.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I can tell you guys where I'm at. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: in that process, just I feel like like people might

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Speaker 1: be curious about, like, how much of it do I

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Speaker 1: have done? The Year two profiles have been written for

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Speaker 1: a really long time. All of the bulk of the

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Speaker 1: of the of the guide at the beginning, like the

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Speaker 1: intro stuff like what goes in the models and understanding

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Speaker 1: the models and all that, that's all written and done.

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Speaker 1: We have a new tight End model that's amazing. Brandon

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Speaker 1: worked on it very very hard. I was kind of

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Speaker 1: overseeing it over the last month, and we got to

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Speaker 1: a really really great place. It's very cool. There's an

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Speaker 1: example in the guide about the tight End model that

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Speaker 1: I think might blow people's minds a little bit, but

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Speaker 1: you know, I'll save that for people who are, you know,

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Speaker 1: digging in and reading it. But with the profiles, you know,

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Speaker 1: we have you know, Godula's do managing the tight end stuff.

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Speaker 1: I'm doing the running back and wide receiver ones as

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Speaker 1: I usually do. There's forty six wide receivers. There's twenty

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Speaker 1: running backs, and I have half the running backs done.

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Speaker 1: I'm waiting on some of the running back stuff because

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Speaker 1: I want to see for comp purposes and and you know,

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Speaker 1: speed score matters in the model for running backs more.

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Speaker 1: I want to see that kind of thing happen at

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Speaker 1: the combine. And so I'm waiting for half of the

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Speaker 1: So I have ten of the twenty running backs done,

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Speaker 1: and then I have I think thirty one of the

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Speaker 1: forty six wide receivers done. So at this point and

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Speaker 1: I started, I do like the best players, and then

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Speaker 1: I get into the lower tier guys, like the Day

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Speaker 1: three guys. The Day three guys, you can you can

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Speaker 1: get through them pretty quickly because there's usually you're trying

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Speaker 1: to find like redeemable traits with these players, analytical traits.

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Speaker 1: Some of them have them, and they're interesting. The ones

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Speaker 1: who don't, it's really just hey, guys, you know, realistically,

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Speaker 1: there's like a point two percent chance that this guy

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Speaker 1: is even rosterable, you know, in Dynasty at this point.

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Speaker 1: So you know, I'm not going to like spend a

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Speaker 1: ton of time digging into this when I know in

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Speaker 1: the end the chances of that person being relevant. And

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Speaker 1: not only that, but all these profiles get rewritten, or

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Speaker 1: the majority of them do, when the NFL Draft hits.

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Speaker 1: And so if one of these players has surprising draft

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Speaker 1: gup or something or goes to a team where his

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Speaker 1: immediate opportunity looks really good, I'll rewrite it and I'll

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Speaker 1: update it. But but you know a lot of those

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Speaker 1: like lower tiered guys Day three wide receivers, you know,

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Speaker 1: late day three undrafted wide receivers. It's just it's you

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Speaker 1: guys will read as you go through, and it's this

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Speaker 1: is the same way and every guy every year. As

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Speaker 1: you go through and you reach like the guys that

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Speaker 1: have like a ZAP score of twenty or fifteen or whatever,

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Speaker 1: I just start throwing in sarcasm and a lot more jokes.

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Speaker 2: You got to fill up that space somehow. Yeah, someone

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Speaker 2: that kensickly. I asked, but is the color pellette ready?

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Speaker 1: Actually, no, it's it's not yet.

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Speaker 2: It's not. However, JJ I didn't even get to tell

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Speaker 2: you this. This morning. I researched how to do it

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Speaker 2: automatically with the script and I am so excited.

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Speaker 1: Ooh yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: For those who don't know, we use in design for for.

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Speaker 2: The Adobe and design and I'm the I'm the hex

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Speaker 2: code palette RGB guy. That's all. I'm just the one

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Speaker 2: providing the splash of team colors and that's pretty much

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Speaker 2: what I do. Make sure the fonts, that's true.

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Speaker 1: You're doing a lot of them, You're doing a lot

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Speaker 1: of marketing work for them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but in the actual guide I feel bad because.

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Speaker 1: I mean the actual deliverable, it's a lot of that. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Just don't worry. I'm not doing any analysis, not

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Speaker 2: sneaking in Eli Stour's profile and in adding anything.

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Speaker 1: That's all.

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Speaker 2: It's all JJ, It's all Brandon Godola, and we will

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Speaker 2: have author pages this year as well because we do

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Speaker 2: have Brandon helping with some of the tight end stuff

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Speaker 2: and the modeling. So I'm excited about that. I'm also

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Speaker 2: excited about Early Best Ball JJ. We have Early best

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Speaker 2: Ball that has already started, and so what better way

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Speaker 2: when people are doing their best ball or their rookie Grind.

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Speaker 1: Year two.

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Speaker 2: Grind talking about free agency to draft early best Ball

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Speaker 2: on DraftKings. Talked to someone yesterday they said, it's it's

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Speaker 2: it's not I don't want to say like easy mode

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Speaker 2: over on Draft Kings, but it's easier than other sites

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Speaker 2: right now for early best Ball.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean experience, Yeah, I experienced that last

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Speaker 1: year with I don't want to say that my top

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Speaker 1: fifty you know, no, you can million team was the

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Speaker 1: result of a softer rooms in general. But I do

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Speaker 1: think that you will, like I had better results on

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Speaker 1: DK than I have like max entering and doing more

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Speaker 1: on DK than than other platforms and sites. I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of it is just their audience is different.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's people coming over from the sports betting

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Speaker 1: world that want to give it a try and such.

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Speaker 1: But there's a lot of skill involved in getting the

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Speaker 1: right kind of team, you know, just just knowing how

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Speaker 1: many positions to draft and knowing which players you get

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Speaker 1: and all that kind of stuff. And so yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean I think it's a great platform. I really fell

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Speaker 1: in love with it last year. I'm excited to you know,

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Speaker 1: play more on drafting this year.

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Speaker 2: This is early best Ball, So this is the it's

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Speaker 2: one million dollars in total prizes. So that's a lot

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Speaker 2: for early Best Ball and it will stop like when

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Speaker 2: the draft happens. Right, So this is your drafting players

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Speaker 2: that you don't know exactly where they will be going.

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Speaker 2: You're drafting off of talent. And again, if you're purchasing

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Speaker 2: the Prospect Guide or you're listening to the show, then

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Speaker 2: I feel like you already have a leg up. And

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Speaker 2: if you know Best Ball snow waiver wires, no roster management,

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Speaker 2: it's a bigger roster than what you're typically used to

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Speaker 2: doing that to just take your optimal score each week.

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Speaker 1: JJ. Yeah, keep in mind that the Prospect Guide because

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Speaker 1: people are worried about, well, what if he doesn't get

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Speaker 1: this draft capital whatever, and I get all that, like there,

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Speaker 1: we're not going to know until the draft actually happens.

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Speaker 1: But NFL Mock Draft Database inputs from a draft capital

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Speaker 1: perspective are in the Prospect Guide, like that's the draft

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Speaker 1: capital input for the players scores in the pre draft version,

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Speaker 1: so you at least get a general idea. And I've

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Speaker 1: been I've been using the NFL Mock Draft Database for

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Speaker 1: a few years now, and yeah, I mean like, it's

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Speaker 1: not gonna be like they're a guy like Pat Bryant

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Speaker 1: last year ended up going a lot higher than expected,

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Speaker 1: or you know, Isaac Tesla or whomever, and then the

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Speaker 1: opposite happens to like l iman Or at one point

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Speaker 1: was a second round pick on NFL mock Draft database,

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Speaker 1: but then he ended up being a Day three guy.

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Speaker 1: That kind of stuff is going to happen. But you know,

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Speaker 1: the majority of these players are are pretty on point

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Speaker 1: with where their draft capital sits. So the guide and

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Speaker 1: the scores for these players should be able to help

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Speaker 1: you out in these early best ball contests and.

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Speaker 2: After the guy launches. Also, we'll have some rankings for

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Speaker 2: our members in April, so before the draft, will also

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Speaker 2: have some live streams. So make sure that you're hanging

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Speaker 2: out here sticking around. With that being said, JJ, you

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Speaker 2: ready to hop into today's news.

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Speaker 1: It's do it, Today's Fantasy news.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's start with a little bit of a

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Speaker 2: somber note. You mentioned it on the podcast this week, JJ,

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Speaker 2: but Rondel Moore rip I talked about it on yesterday's

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Speaker 2: SWOL cast as well, and it's just like Peter Overzett

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Speaker 2: was talking about he was such a guy that was

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Speaker 2: kind of like in our circle too, Like Rondell Moore

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Speaker 2: was like a guy that we had been researching who

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Speaker 2: we were excited about and regardless of what happened on

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Speaker 2: the field, we like. The people that are interested in

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Speaker 2: dynasty and talent and just raw ability really really liked

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Speaker 2: him from the get go.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, crazy production profile at Purdue, I mean, not absolutely

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Speaker 1: insane early career in Adrian, justin production. But yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: like it's just a it's an incredibly incredibly sad moment

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Speaker 1: for sports, for the NFL, I mean anything, anytime something

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Speaker 1: like this happens, it's just it's just incredibly sad. And

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't want to speculate, like we shouldn't

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Speaker 1: speculate as to you know, why this happened, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: I think it's very clear that, you know, mental health

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Speaker 1: is a very real thing, and unfortunately, some people get

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Speaker 1: to that point where they feel like that's the only answer.

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Speaker 1: And I think it's important that if you're listening to

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Speaker 1: this right now, it's not the only answer. And there

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Speaker 1: are people in places and things that that where you

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Speaker 1: can go to seek help. And as I said on

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Speaker 1: the show, and I mean it my email is open

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Speaker 1: to you know, you can find that on the website.

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Speaker 1: So I you know, it's just sad, Like it hit

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Speaker 1: me for sure. Yeah, you know, I didn't know him

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Speaker 1: or anything. It's just one of those things where you read,

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Speaker 1: you know, Hollywood Brown's tweets or AJ Green was sending

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Speaker 1: some tweets out about how they FaceTime every week and

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Speaker 1: they have like there's so many people that are impacted

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Speaker 1: by this, and it's just a really sad situation overall.

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Speaker 1: You know, I said this on the show yesterday. It's

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Speaker 1: a really difficult thing just to be transparent with you guys,

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Speaker 1: like I care deeply about this kind of stuff. I

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Speaker 1: care deeply about making sure that you guys don't think

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Speaker 1: that I'm viewing these players as just you know, digits

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Speaker 1: and numbers and a spreadsheet. These are our real dudes

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Speaker 1: who are living just very normal lives, and you know,

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Speaker 1: fame and money isn't going to necessarily solve and cure

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Speaker 1: all of their problems. AJ Brown's talked a lot about

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Speaker 1: that with the mental health stigma of how people view

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Speaker 1: you know, athletes and how they're sort of untouchable and

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Speaker 1: it's like, oh, how could you have any problems. If

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Speaker 1: you're making millions of dollars a year, it's very deeply

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Speaker 1: important for me for you guys to know that I'm

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Speaker 1: thinking and internalizing all of that kind of stuff, and

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Speaker 1: I try really really hard to make sure that you

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Speaker 1: you know that that's being portrayed and talk to you now.

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Speaker 1: I know that my podcast is an escape for people

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Speaker 1: to get away from all the craziness of their everyday lives.

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Speaker 1: Just don't think that that means that I'm not paying

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Speaker 1: attention to what's going on in our everyday life and

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Speaker 1: the important stuff in our everyday life, and the important

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Speaker 1: stuff is love and life and friendship in relationships, and

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Speaker 1: so it's a sad thing overall. I hope that you guys,

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Speaker 1: you know, took that from the show yesterday. And it's

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Speaker 1: this weird dynamic where I'm giving advice, I'm you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm doing analysis, I'm talking about this stuff, and then

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Speaker 1: something like this happens and I still have to do

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Speaker 1: my job, but I do want to pay respects to

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Speaker 1: him as a human and as a man. And then

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Speaker 1: at the same time, you know, people need to know

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Speaker 1: that that's not the only answer for them if they're

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Speaker 1: in that state of mind.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, sobering reminder are just the talking about the Hollywood

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Speaker 2: brown stuff. Just when we see an athlete get injured,

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Speaker 2: we're obviously looking at it from kind of a selfish

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Speaker 2: lens of like how it affects your team or what

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Speaker 2: role it opens up for someone else, but man for them, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: when you see there they're talking about their livelihood and

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Speaker 2: just the the emotional toll that it takes. Definitely a

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Speaker 2: sobering reminder just of how physical and violent that that

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Speaker 2: the game is that we love. But again, he was

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Speaker 2: is like the videos of him at Purdue lifting and

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Speaker 2: and like.

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Speaker 1: That dude he was. He was so good. I mean

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Speaker 1: I I look his the only thing that was against

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Speaker 1: him from like an analytical perspective as like a prospect

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Speaker 1: and stuff was his size, but his production pro Like,

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Speaker 1: he's got one of the best age a justin production

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Speaker 1: profiles out of college that I've ever seen. It's crazy,

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Speaker 1: and like you know, for from from everything that everyone

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Speaker 1: said and what we've read, like he was a great teammate,

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Speaker 1: a great person. He's got that tweet. It's just so sad.

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Speaker 1: He's got that tweet of him buying his home, the

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Speaker 1: home for his mom that's like the last tweet he

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Speaker 1: sent like years ago, or because he wasn't very active

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Speaker 1: on Twitter and stuff like that. It's just that, you know,

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Speaker 1: like because you know, when stuff like this happens, there's

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Speaker 1: this ripple effect of the community and his close friends

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Speaker 1: and family, and you just sit there and you are

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Speaker 1: just feeling for them as deeply as you possibly can.

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Speaker 1: And that's that's where you know, it's just it's just sad.

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Speaker 1: It's it's horrible.

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Speaker 2: So we'll transition from that to week. You know, it's

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Speaker 2: not like an easy transition. There's never an easy transition. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: but it would just say that, you know, he was

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Speaker 2: a guy that performed well, and now we're looking at

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Speaker 2: other guys that are performing well and who are working

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Speaker 2: out not working out, and that this week is Jordan Tyson.

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Speaker 2: He is not working out this week. Yeah, and we

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Speaker 2: have news that Mackay Lemon and Carnell Tait are participating

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Speaker 2: in drills. So where are you on Jordan Tyson right now?

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Speaker 2: Because he is falling down draft boards mock draft boards.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't really care that that much

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Speaker 1: about what other people think about him as a prospect. Right,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna go by what my research and

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Speaker 1: analysis is saying first and foremost. Now, I shouldn't say

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Speaker 1: that I just ignore other people's analysis totally. You know,

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Speaker 1: I've I've the person I talked to with wide receivers

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Speaker 1: most because I have a personal friendship with them and

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Speaker 1: we text all the time about it. This time of

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Speaker 1: year is Matt Harmon, and Harmon isn't as high as

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Speaker 1: I am on Jordan Tyson. And that at least gets

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Speaker 1: me to say, like, my goal is not to just

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Speaker 1: say listen to the model, no matter what. My goal

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Speaker 1: is to give you the best analysis I can. And

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Speaker 1: the model is not always going to be going to

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Speaker 1: be right. I will say that more often than not

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Speaker 1: when I've gone against what the model is saying, it's

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Speaker 1: bit me right, and it's it's been the wrong decision

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Speaker 1: to make. And so I'm trying to just like, you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm right now, Like I'll just say it like pre draft.

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Speaker 1: You know this this first iteration of the Prospect guy

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Speaker 1: that's going to go out March sixteenth, Jordan Tyson is

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Speaker 1: going to be in more than likely in the Legendary

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Speaker 1: Performer category with Carnel tat McKay Lemon and the elite

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Speaker 1: producer category. But I think there's a real chance because

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Speaker 1: of the injury stuff and the more subjective things that

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Speaker 1: the model won't capture, and the fact that his draft

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Speaker 1: capital could fall right like his like it could be

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Speaker 1: lower than expected. I'll probably still have him a wide

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Speaker 1: receiver one, but in the same tier with those other

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Speaker 1: wide receivers and those two other wide receivers. I like

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Speaker 1: a I mean, I think that you know, people oftentimes

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Speaker 1: will hear you. You know. The thing that I that

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Speaker 1: I don't like about prospecting in this time of year

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Speaker 1: and like how things you know unfold in the end

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Speaker 1: when we look back, is that, you know, if Jordan

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Speaker 1: Tyson flames out or if he does really really well,

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Speaker 1: it's like my prospecting season hinged on that one thing,

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Speaker 1: which is absurd. It's it's one singular outcome for one

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Speaker 1: singular player. When we're you know, I'm analyzing, like I said,

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Speaker 1: sixty seven different running backs and wide receivers in this

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Speaker 1: draft class. There's there's a greater and bigger picture here.

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Speaker 1: I understand that that's going to be you know, a

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Speaker 1: top six, top seven, whatever rookie draft pick and such

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Speaker 1: so so obviously we want to get it right, but

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Speaker 1: I do think that Tyson's profile can go in different directions.

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Speaker 1: I'm just telling you right now that objectively, he has

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Speaker 1: the best age adjusted production because of what he did

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Speaker 1: that third season off of his his big injury, so

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Speaker 1: you know, injury stuff is definitely concerned. The fact that

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Speaker 1: he's not testing and doing things because of that is

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Speaker 1: is a concern. Like I'm not, you know, just gonna

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Speaker 1: ignore that. But I think that's also why we have

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Speaker 1: tiers and we can say, okay, instead of him being

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Speaker 1: like this clear you know, Tier one kind of player,

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Speaker 1: I'll throw him in with two other incredibly good wide receivers.

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Speaker 2: I am excited that it seems like people are at

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Speaker 2: least competing in the drills. I hope that they're doing

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Speaker 2: the like forty time, like I want Lemon to do

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Speaker 2: the forty time. Jeremiah Love though, anticipating in drills and

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Speaker 2: do it like that's awesome, which.

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Speaker 1: Is great because we need like a lot of those

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Speaker 1: high end running backs recently have not like Ashton Gent.

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Speaker 1: We didn't see ye do did right? Yeah I don't

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Speaker 1: think so, but yeah, I mean, like I want to

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Speaker 1: see what Love can do and not none of that.

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Speaker 1: You know, I've talked about how love to me like,

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Speaker 1: I don't think he's going to reach Ashton genty from

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Speaker 1: a prospecting perspective in the ZAP model, yeah, because his

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Speaker 1: receiving numbers aren't quite there. Now. Sure you can make

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Speaker 1: the arguments that if he were in any other system

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Speaker 1: or whatever, I get all that, guys, But his receiving numbers,

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Speaker 1: you know, for what the model looks at, they're not

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Speaker 1: quite to where like a Gent was, because if Gent's

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Speaker 1: like second to last year or Bijon or Jamior Gibbs,

396
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Speaker 1: especially like Gibbs was one who had crazy receiving numbers.

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Speaker 1: But there's a chance that we see Love look better

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Speaker 1: in the model if he does go crazy like a

399
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,159
Speaker 1: player like him, running the forty means that a good

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00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,520
Speaker 1: forty time is about to come, yeah, or at least

401
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 1: a good speed score, right otherwise why would he be running,

402
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:29,479
Speaker 1: you know? And so I'm very excited to see what

403
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,199
Speaker 1: he can do because if that speed score jumps up,

404
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 1: which is way to justin forty time, then there is

405
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Speaker 1: a chance that he has a better score than what

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00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 1: I've kind of been talking through on the shows and stuff.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's an elite player. He'll be the one

408
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:42,720
Speaker 1: on one in your rookie drafts, you know, unless you

409
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Speaker 1: want to go Mendoza, but I think you know I would.

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Speaker 1: I still think that Love is probably the safer bet,

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Speaker 1: just because we know the volatility exists there at quarterback,

412
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Speaker 1: not nearly as much at running back. So it's not

413
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Speaker 1: going to change that. It just will change how he's

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Speaker 1: kind of viewed within the context of running backs from

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Speaker 1: previous classes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. I want to see what his rating is, Like,

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Speaker 2: I just want to know what Love is and JJ,

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00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,919
Speaker 2: I want you to show me. I can't believe you

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Speaker 2: just did the in the prospect guy.

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Speaker 1: That's good.

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Speaker 2: Good tag tag, You're it. We have franchise tags.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you let it so that the audience that's the

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00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 1: laugh track behind us could yeah, could could.

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Speaker 2: Either laugh track or just shaking their heads.

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Speaker 1: And shaking their heads for sure.

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Speaker 2: Uh. Kyle Pitts though we talked about this last week

427
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Speaker 2: that he could be tagged and he was by the

428
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Speaker 2: Atlanta Falcons.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, good tight end offense with Stefanski. You know, I

430
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Speaker 1: think that that Kyle Pitch showed us last year that

431
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Speaker 1: he's better than what people generally thought, you know, I

432
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 1: think that there's still some limitations to his game, but

433
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 1: he's from a fantasy perspective, he's the kind of tight

434
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 1: end that we want. You know, he's athletic, he's big,

435
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 1: he can he can uh see high target chairs, and

436
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 1: we just need him to be deployed a little bit

437
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 1: more in the red zone.

438
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:01,480
Speaker 2: He's had an up and down curry It really has,

439
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 2: I mean, like Arthur Smith's stuff in there, even though.

440
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 1: With Kyle Pitts has been expectations, you know, and and

441
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 1: and people setting like absurdly high expectations for him, which,

442
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 1: to be fair, I get it because he's you know,

443
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 1: if you look at like the Zap model or you

444
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,400
Speaker 1: know how how he just was viewed as a prospect

445
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 1: coming out. Yeah, like he's the expectation should be high.

446
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:24,400
Speaker 1: But he's been a really good tight end to start

447
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 1: his career overall, All.

448
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 2: Right, not so easy breezy, uh for Breese Hall, because

449
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 2: apparently if they don't extend him or trade him for

450
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,200
Speaker 2: at least a third according to their jets GM, then

451
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:39,920
Speaker 2: they are going to tag him.

452
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 1: And just weren't they weren't they off?

453
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 2: Was it?

454
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,359
Speaker 1: Were they looking for a second in season is that

455
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 1: the difference here? Because maybe because how could they have

456
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 1: not gotten a third for him in season when we

457
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:53,959
Speaker 1: know teams are going to be a little bit more

458
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 1: desperate because there's you know, situations where that calls frud.

459
00:22:57,800 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 1: I think what wasn't it? Maybe maybe it was the

460
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:04,159
Speaker 1: moor Than third differential like difference for the Chiefs in particular,

461
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,120
Speaker 1: but there was a report about that. But regardless, Breshaw,

462
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:07,719
Speaker 1: it sucks.

463
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:07,920
Speaker 2: Man.

464
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 1: Brisol is a really good running back and he's stuck

465
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 1: in this miserable situation. And I said it on our discord,

466
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 1: but I don't think there's a coach in the NFL,

467
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,199
Speaker 1: even in the last like five to ten years that

468
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 1: has put me on tilt more than Aaron Glenn. He

469
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 1: he just everything that he says just tilts me. Uh

470
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 1: And you know, Breshall being attached to him for another

471
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 1: year is just really frustrating.

472
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:35,399
Speaker 2: All right, gidde up. Javonte wants to be a cowboy baby.

473
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 2: Javonte Williams three year extension.

474
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, good for him. Man, twenty four million dollars.

475
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:45,199
Speaker 2: Where's that put you on Javonte's stock heading into next season?

476
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 1: I think he's a solid, relatively volume dependent, you know,

477
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:54,440
Speaker 1: Like I haven't done any rankings, obviously, I would assume

478
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 1: he's going to be in like RB two range. Like

479
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:57,879
Speaker 1: I have a hard time, you know, I already did

480
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 1: the top ten you know earlier this this offseason. I

481
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 1: don't think he would crack the top ten. I don't

482
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 1: think he'll he'll crack RB one status, but you know

483
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 1: he can beat He was good after contact last year,

484
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:11,119
Speaker 1: kind of back to his earlier career numbers. He was

485
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 1: a good prospect coming out. I liked him, But I

486
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:17,120
Speaker 1: do you know, I think that the idea of Jaden Blue,

487
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 1: not Jayden Blue. The idea of Jayden Blue makes sense

488
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 1: for Dallas, you know, getting a dynamic compliment to Javonte Williams,

489
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 1: and that could cap his ceiling a little bit if

490
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 1: they go that route this offseason. But I think Javonte

491
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 1: is at least like a solid My only thing is

492
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 1: that if he does, you know, get into more of

493
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 1: like the dead zone area from a redraft perspective, that's

494
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:40,199
Speaker 1: usually the kind of profile I don't want to go

495
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 1: heavy towards you know, his his receiving efficiency was not

496
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:47,120
Speaker 1: good last year, and so that would that would scare

497
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: me a little bit. But as of today, right now,

498
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:53,679
Speaker 1: let's celebrate Javonte Williams. Congratulations on kind of turning your

499
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 1: career around down there, and.

500
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 2: Now exactly what you want to do as someone who

501
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 2: goes somewhere, go to Dallas, get a three year, twenty

502
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:09,440
Speaker 2: four million dollar deal. Free agency starts next week, and JJ,

503
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 2: we've already got Kirk o Chain's part two theories about

504
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:18,160
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins. He's going to be released, and now what's

505
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 2: gonna happen?

506
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, where are people thinking that he's gonna go? Minnesota?

507
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:22,639
Speaker 1: I mean Minnesota.

508
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 2: Minnesota is one of the kind of places that people

509
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 2: have thought about. It makes a lot of sense.

510
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 1: Minnesota makes a ton of sense. Yeah, I would not

511
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:33,879
Speaker 1: be shocked if he goes to Minnesota, and I wouldn't

512
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 1: be shocked if he starts for Minnesota if that were

513
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 1: to happen. Yeah, the free agency thing, I had that

514
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,879
Speaker 1: epiphany earlier this week and I messaged you in Brandon,

515
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 1: but I was like, usually the Prospect Guide goes out

516
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 1: a week after the Combine. This year it's two weeks

517
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,640
Speaker 1: after the combine because we have more content that we're

518
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 1: delivering to you guys. And so the thing is though,

519
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,719
Speaker 1: is that I write all these year two profiles and

520
00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 1: free agency starts around that time. So in the past

521
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: I would release the guide and free agency hadn't started yet,

522
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: and then you could see my pre free agency takes

523
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: on these players. But now I'm gonna have to update

524
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 1: some of these year two profiles based on what happens

525
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 1: in free agency, which might not be a bad thing

526
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 1: in the end, from like a you know, more up

527
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 1: to date content kind of thing, because there's like that

528
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 1: dead period then in April where nothing's really happening, but

529
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 1: at least now you're gonna get some updates. But there

530
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 1: are some players like RJ. Harvey for instance, or wood

531
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:26,640
Speaker 1: he marks.

532
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 2: R J.

533
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,400
Speaker 1: Harvey is the one in particular where I've been talking

534
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 1: about him being a sell for the last month or

535
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 1: so in Dynasty, and and the Prospect Guide, you know,

536
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 1: is echoing that because it's coming from me, And there's

537
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 1: all these reports about how they might draft somebody or

538
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 1: like somebody higher than we expect, or get one of

539
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 1: the higher and running backs, you know, in free agency

540
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 1: because JK. Dobbins is no longer a Bronco, so like,

541
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,439
Speaker 1: you know, I wish I could be early, but if

542
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 1: you're listening, this is why you listen to the podcast,

543
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,080
Speaker 1: you know, during the off season. I do think that

544
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 1: something is going to happen to that backfield. Maybe it

545
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 1: ends up being a good thing for Harvey, but because

546
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,120
Speaker 1: it's not like a big investment. But right now they're

547
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 1: sitting with Harvey, Tyler Badet and Julil McLoughlin, and it's

548
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:16,359
Speaker 1: very hard to imagine that a team with Super Bowl

549
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 1: aspirations is going to go into a team that uses

550
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 1: their running backs as much as Denver does, is going

551
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 1: to go into next season with that trio in their backfield.

552
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 2: All right, there is a big time Willis Malik Willis

553
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:34,239
Speaker 2: steam up people's draft board whatever you want to call it,

554
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:38,679
Speaker 2: you know, free agency boards and dynasty draft boards, like

555
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 2: I feel like some people have. He's not on a

556
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,120
Speaker 2: lot of dynasty rosters, like super flex dynasty rosters. That's

557
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,919
Speaker 2: how far he has fallen. And now he could be

558
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 2: a starter next year. Yeah, I mean he browns.

559
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,880
Speaker 1: He at least he had people had dropped him at

560
00:27:53,880 --> 00:28:00,640
Speaker 1: some point in those super flex leagues, right yeah.

561
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 2: Yes, not like now. Well, and I'm also thinking some

562
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 2: of it in like best Ball super Flex.

563
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:06,880
Speaker 1: Oh I mean, yeah, I mean, I would I would

564
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 1: assume that most competitive super flex leagues he's he's especially

565
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 1: because he got.

566
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 2: A start this year, right the ones that have moves

567
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 2: during the season, for sure, But the Browns have already

568
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:23,360
Speaker 2: reported they might go. They're looking at Willis as well

569
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 2: as Tye Simpson. With the limited quarterbacks in this year's draft,

570
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 2: especially get ready to learn Milike Willis QB one next season.

571
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 1: Oh, he's definitely going to be starting somewhere next year,

572
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 1: and he's definitely going to be a late round fantasy

573
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 1: target of mine because of the rushing ability. The problem

574
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 1: is that, like I saw the report that Arizona is

575
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:50,959
Speaker 1: really keen that would destroy, destroy, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Junior,

576
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 1: you know, Michael Wilson. Maybe destroys too harsh of a word,

577
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 1: but look like like Trey McBride is awesome, but we

578
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 1: also have to be realistic that he is a volume

579
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 1: dependent player, as really good players generally are. But like

580
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 1: when Malik Willis is under center, you're not gonna get

581
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 1: nearly as much volume. Arizona's coming off a season where

582
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 1: they led the NFL in pass attempts. I mean, they

583
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 1: were the past heaviest team in the league last year,

584
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 1: and now you're gonna go to Malik Willis where that's

585
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 1: more than likely not going to happen, just because we've

586
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 1: seen that happen in the past with mobile quarterbacks. So

587
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 1: I don't want him to go to Arizona. You know.

588
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 1: Could he go to like Miami would would kind of

589
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 1: work from a fantasy perspective, because you know, Wattle's still there.

590
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: Their thing. I mean, I've seen the rumors with Wattle too,

591
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 1: but uh, you know Waddle.

592
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 2: Wattle said cap, He said, cap, what's that he's like

593
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 2: the rumors that he wants to leave? He put a

594
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 2: cap emoji and quoted that gott oh he's saying that's

595
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 2: a lie.

596
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 1: Well, but the thing is that at least in Miami

597
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 1: you can funnel targets just I mean, like Jaylen Waddle

598
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: could see a thirty one percent target Chare and no

599
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,239
Speaker 1: one would blink based on who's there right now. So

600
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 1: that kind of situation would be good. I mean, you

601
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 1: can go to Cleveland. It's not like there's much you

602
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 1: can just dump it off to Harold Fannon all day.

603
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, like he's gonna get a starting

604
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 1: gig he's gonna be mobile. We saw in a good system,

605
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 1: good environment in Green Bay what he could do. So yeah,

606
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 1: I'm I'm I'm excited to see what where where he lands. A. J.

607
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 2: Brown not guaranteed to be back with the Eagles next.

608
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 1: Year, not surprising, you know, but uh yeah, I mean,

609
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: I I think that there was a slight drop off

610
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 1: last year with with AJ Brown. I think we're on

611
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: that side of his career. So the fact that these gms,

612
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 1: but by the way, I think GM's are are pretty

613
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 1: open at the combine, you know, with the way they

614
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 1: think about the fact that like even like Ryan Poles

615
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 1: I think said that they were they were open to

616
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 1: trading DJ Moore, you know, like they're they're just saying

617
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 1: these things, and so with AJ might be a.

618
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 2: Game, but they're saying it out loud at least sure.

619
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 1: I mean, like the fact that it's even like part

620
00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 1: of the right yes, yeah, when when he's not under contract,

621
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 1: you know. But the AJ Brown stuff, I think that

622
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 1: the Eagles are a smart organization. They know that he's

623
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 1: on this other side of his of his career at

624
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 1: this point, and uh, now would be the time to

625
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 1: try to maximize that value. I think that a team

626
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 1: like New England makes a lot of sense. But he

627
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 1: did not get along at the time with Mike Rabel.

628
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 1: Did you see that one clip or a J. Brown

629
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 1: was saying, I can't remember what show it was, I

630
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 1: was podcast, but he was saying that he would sit

631
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 1: in meetings with Rabel and he would just say I

632
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 1: hate Mike Rabel and he would write it down like

633
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 1: he was taking notes. But he was just saying, I hate.

634
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 2: Rabes a Titans fan.

635
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 1: I no, I know, but I'm just saying, like he

636
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 1: he he's very open about how he was immature and

637
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 1: not in his right, you know, mindset when he was

638
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 1: in Tennessee. So maybe I mean that it's a great

639
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 1: fit from like a real football perspective, But yeah, I

640
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 1: don't know. I don't know where where you know, where

641
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 1: that'll go. I do think though, that he's not the

642
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 1: same Aj Brown that he was two years ago.

643
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 2: Buffalo Bill's great fit. Some are saying, as well, all right,

644
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 2: Joe mixing. I don't know if he's mixing it up

645
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 2: or not, because apparently he is still day to day.

646
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 2: I don't know. It's such a weird situation. I asked

647
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 2: this yesterday, but do you think Joe Mixon plays professional football?

648
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 1: Again, I don't just based on what's going on here.

649
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 1: I mean, we had we were pretty early on that

650
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 1: last summer with the mix and stuff, which I was

651
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 1: happy about, and that got us onto Woody Marks and

652
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 1: best ball and stuff. You know, I think that we're

653
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 1: already like they're already talking about maybe getting a big

654
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 1: free agent back that's like Woody Marks is one of

655
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 1: the classic reasons and classic players of what I talked

656
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 1: about before, where za model scores at running back or

657
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 1: more predictive of year two to four success than year

658
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 1: one PPR points per game. Now that model didn't mind

659
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 1: Woody Marx, to be clear, because he had a decent

660
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: receiving profile and et cetera, et cetera. I don't think

661
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 1: Mark is a bad player, but his his stock is

662
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 1: going to tank if they get like Kenneth Walker or something,

663
00:32:58,040 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 1: you know, if they if they go.

664
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 2: Out for Jendarian Price, yeh, whoever.

665
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 1: The case may be right, and so you know, be

666
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 1: aware of that within the Dynasty market right now. But no,

667
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 1: I don't think, I mean, at this point, I don't

668
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 1: know why we'd feel confident that mix is gonna just

669
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 1: all of a sudden play that I've never seen reporting.

670
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 1: That's not reporting. The reporters are doing what they can,

671
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 1: but never seen teams talk so oddly about an injury

672
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 1: in my life. I mean, they're saying, like, I think

673
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 1: he had surgery over the off season, but during the season,

674
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 1: But I'm not, like you think, how do you not? Yeah,

675
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 1: it's weird. It's just a weird situation in general. I mean,

676
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 1: I hope he's okay, but I'm not very optimistic that

677
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 1: he's that he's going to find the football field anytime soon.

678
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 2: Today's data, all right, JJ, we got some breakout scores

679
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 2: over fifty in this year's class.

680
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is a lot smaller than last year's

681
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 1: table or last year's last week's table where I talked

682
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 1: about yards team adjusted yards per team play at running

683
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 1: back and I had literally every running back in this

684
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 1: year's class. Breakout scores more proprietary than the adjusted stuff

685
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 1: that I do with yards per team play, And it's

686
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 1: also a big, big driver within the model. So I

687
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 1: don't want to give away too much for people who are,

688
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 1: you know, supporting and purchasing the draft the prospect guide,

689
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 1: but I will say this, so so breakout score itself

690
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 1: is based on receiving yards per team pass attempt, and

691
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,280
Speaker 1: what it does is it looks at every player's season

692
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 1: in college and it'll say, okay, this guy had this

693
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 1: receiving yards per team pass attempt pro rated for games played,

694
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:36,120
Speaker 1: minimum six games played. It takes that number. It then

695
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 1: adjusts that number for strength of schedule, and then there's

696
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:42,840
Speaker 1: kind of like levels to it. I don't want to

697
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:45,680
Speaker 1: call them thresholds because that's not exactly how the model

698
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 1: looks at it, but there's a range. So like, if

699
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 1: a player has a three point three receiving yards per

700
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 1: team pass attempt rate, which is absurdly high, Okay, anything

701
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 1: over three is really really good. Over two and a

702
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,840
Speaker 1: half is pretty good. Over two you should be getting.

703
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 1: Under two, you're like, is this guy good? And so

704
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:08,439
Speaker 1: let's say guy had a three point three receiving yards

705
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 1: per team pass attempt and that was adjusted for strength

706
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 1: of schedule. Okay, and that player did that at twenty

707
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 1: years old, that's absurd. He's gonna have probably a ninety

708
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 1: nine percentile breakout score because it's a really really good

709
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 1: combination of factors. But the cool thing about breakout score

710
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 1: and what differentiates it from other breakout metrics like breakout age.

711
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 1: Breakout age will say, Okay, this guy hit this dominator

712
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 1: rating threshold at this age, so he broke out at

713
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 1: this age. Nothing more. That was his breakout age. Doesn't

714
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,240
Speaker 1: matter what he does after that. He broke out here,

715
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 1: That's all that matters. But what breakout score does is

716
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 1: that it can still reward players who progress through their

717
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 1: careers and get better numbers down the line. Now, if

718
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 1: they have a crazy high adjusted receiving yards per team

719
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 1: pass attempt is like a sophomore, they're probably not going

720
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:56,839
Speaker 1: to improve that score based on what they do as

721
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 1: a junior and a senior because that score is just

722
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 1: so so high. So Jordan tice And is a third

723
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 1: year guy when he got his crazy numbers in twenty

724
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: twenty four, he wasn't going to do much to change

725
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,359
Speaker 1: his breakout score in twenty twenty five, just the way

726
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 1: the metric works. With that being said, a player like

727
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 1: you know who doesn't do that much through the first

728
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 1: two years of his career, but in the final two

729
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 1: years he really really blows up. He can still look

730
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 1: good within breakout score. You see right here on this

731
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 1: list where the list of players, honestly, aside from Eric McAllister,

732
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 1: are the top wide receivers in this year's class for

733
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 1: the most part, right, these are guys who are over fifties.

734
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 1: This is like a seventieth percentile or better breakout scores.

735
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 1: You have Jordan Tyson with a ninety ninth percent tile.

736
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,960
Speaker 1: He's at a score of ninety five point one. Eric McAllister,

737
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 1: who I talked about on the show earlier this week,

738
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:47,360
Speaker 1: he I guess it dropped yesterday and then if someone's

739
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,840
Speaker 1: listening to this on the feed, it dropped on Tuesday.

740
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:54,439
Speaker 1: But Eric McCallister from TCU had a score of seventy five,

741
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 1: which is a ninety one point seven percentile breakout score. Now,

742
00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 1: breakout score in the model itself works in can junction

743
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 1: with draft capital, So players in that that go on

744
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 1: day three, their breakout score is not nearly as significant

745
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:08,800
Speaker 1: as players who go in like the top one hundred

746
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 1: you know, first round, et cetera, et cetera. Historically, breakout

747
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 1: score alone with top one hundred picks is basically as

748
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:20,840
Speaker 1: predictive as draft capital alone. Right, so you could ignore

749
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 1: draft capital and just look at breakout score. It's just

750
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 1: as predictive with top one hundred picks. So top one

751
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 1: hundred picks here, Jordan Tyson obviously, McKay lemon, who's third

752
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 1: in breakout score in this class, Carnel Tate, who's fourth.

753
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 1: Casey Conceptsione who people I've seen people on Twitter on

754
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:41,160
Speaker 1: social media say that that analytics folks don't like Casey

755
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 1: concepts you owe, because you know, he never had like

756
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 1: a maxed out season, like a crazy high yards per

757
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:48,080
Speaker 1: out run season. I think he maxed out at like

758
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 1: two point twenty five, which is fine but not great.

759
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 1: You know, his receiving yards for team passing times had

760
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 1: some question marks. Guys, that's not how any good modeler

761
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 1: and analytical person should be looking at this stuff. There's

762
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 1: a adjusted stuff you should be looking at, schedule adjusted.

763
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 1: And with Casey concepcion, he was productive all three years

764
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 1: in college, so he's being rewarded for that with a

765
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 1: breakout score that ranks in the seventy seven percentile. Like

766
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 1: he's a good, good prospect, he's a fringe elite producer

767
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 1: within the model. And then lastly, it's Elijah Surat, who

768
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:21,960
Speaker 1: is a little bit controversial, I think just because some

769
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 1: people think he has like separation issues and such. I'm

770
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 1: probably more pro than con with Surrat. He has a

771
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 1: really good breakout score. He got better every year of

772
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 1: his collegiate career. Crazy journey for him. You know, he

773
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: started at Saint Francis as a zero recruit. I think

774
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 1: it was to James Madison. And you know, we had

775
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 1: a conversation on Discord yesterday, and this is why I

776
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 1: think people would love the Discords, because I you know,

777
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 1: just hop in and we just have these these conversations.

778
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 1: But there was talk about Surrat being tied to Mendoza

779
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 1: and that being a big reason that he had such

780
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 1: a big year this past year. Sure, I mean, like

781
00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 1: quarterback play is gonna matter. He didn't play with Mendoza

782
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:02,959
Speaker 1: throughout college. It was last year and so like, yes,

783
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:05,759
Speaker 1: last season looks good, but he he had two other

784
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:08,080
Speaker 1: seasons in his four years where he was over an

785
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:11,320
Speaker 1: adjusted receiving yards be team passing MPT of two point five.

786
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 1: And there are only two other wide receivers in this

787
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 1: class who did that, Jordan Tyson being one of them.

788
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:20,320
Speaker 1: And so I think Elijah Surratt is a really interesting prospect,

789
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 1: a solid prospect, and you know, breakout score definitely shows that.

790
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, can conception. As we say, he he passed the

791
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 2: eye test when you watched him play.

792
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 1: I mean, he just dropped the ball a lot. That's

793
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 1: the that's the problem with them. But I don't care

794
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 1: about drops nearly as much as other people do.

795
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:42,880
Speaker 2: Yeah. The other thing.

796
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:46,719
Speaker 1: The other thing I want to say about breakout scores

797
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 1: and stuff, because because someone saying to JJSA breakout scores

798
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 1: don't matter for day threes. They they you know, like

799
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:57,760
Speaker 1: I said, this model is trying to predict and project

800
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 1: and forecast how well players play during the first three

801
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:04,480
Speaker 1: years of their career. Okay, by doing that or in

802
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 1: doing that, it's looking at history because that's how it

803
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 1: can learn and look at what's gone on historically to

804
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:11,919
Speaker 1: figure that out. And if you look at day three

805
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:15,400
Speaker 1: wide receivers, they're not There aren't many of them that

806
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:17,959
Speaker 1: have been good in general, and so if there aren't

807
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:19,319
Speaker 1: many of them, they'll be good in general. It's not

808
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 1: gonna overweight that stuff to be like, hey, Pookinakua was

809
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 1: really really good on day three, So therefore other people

810
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 1: who have similar profiles as Pook and Akua, we got

811
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 1: to boost them up into the elite producer category because

812
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 1: that's how that's called overfitting, and like that's just not

813
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 1: what you want to do when it comes to modeling.

814
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 1: Not only that, if you look at like like round

815
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:42,880
Speaker 1: four is still you get some correlation with breakout score

816
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:46,799
Speaker 1: and draft capital and such with these wide receivers. When

817
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 1: you get into round five, round six, round seven, man

818
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 1: there is it's a crapshoot. It's a total dart throw

819
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 1: situation where draft capital doesn't even I don't care at

820
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 1: all if a guy's a seventh round pick or a

821
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,880
Speaker 1: fifth round pick. I genuinely do not care because of

822
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,399
Speaker 1: what we've seen historically, and that's why it's a little

823
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:06,719
Speaker 1: bit harder to model those players. It's a combination of

824
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 1: like draft capital not mattering, production profiles not mattering as much.

825
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 1: And then on top of that, there's only like two

826
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 1: or three guys that hit from those rounds to begin with.

827
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:17,239
Speaker 1: So that's why the model says what it does, and

828
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 1: that's why I care so much more about top one

829
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,720
Speaker 1: hundred picks because that's where the money's made in fantasy football.

830
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 2: Joe bo Bondi also said I'm still at the who

831
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:28,520
Speaker 2: stage with rooky names.

832
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 1: I feel you.

833
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm kind of like, unless it's a unless it's

834
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 2: a well known guy like Sarat I mean obviously played

835
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:37,920
Speaker 2: for Indiana, so if you watch those but like Eric McCollister.

836
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:39,880
Speaker 1: No one, no, I mean, but here's the thing.

837
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 2: I thought it was like Kevin's little brother, you know,

838
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 2: and home alone, Like I did not know who that was.

839
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:46,920
Speaker 2: And then I was like, oh, yeah, I remember playing

840
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 2: him playing it.

841
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:49,799
Speaker 1: Here. Here's a really good thing for people to do

842
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:53,800
Speaker 1: to learn the class is to write a two hundred

843
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 1: page pro and I'm just kidding. It's to go to

844
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 1: NFL mock Draft database and and just look at the

845
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:02,280
Speaker 1: consensus big boards to see where these players are projected

846
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,600
Speaker 1: to get drafted. And then you're like, oh, I didn't

847
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 1: realize that. You know, Dion Burks, who I didn't know

848
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:10,800
Speaker 1: that much about because I'm you know, I don't watch

849
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 1: college football a ton, but like Deon Burks for instance,

850
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:18,319
Speaker 1: is projected to go potentially Day two, and so then

851
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 1: you're like, oh, who is this guy that no one's

852
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:22,240
Speaker 1: really talking about that much, at least probably on fantasy

853
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 1: podcasts and stuff. Well, I dug into it for the

854
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:27,719
Speaker 1: Prospect Guide. I His analytical profile is horrendous, like I

855
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 1: don't really know why he's being projected as a Day

856
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 1: two guy, or like Antonio Williams right out of Clemson,

857
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:35,919
Speaker 1: it's like, all right, he's a Day two pick being

858
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 1: projected that way. What kind of wide receiver is he?

859
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:40,319
Speaker 1: That's what the prospect guide is kind of there for,

860
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 1: is to tell you the kind of archetype that these

861
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 1: guys are and whether or not their analytical profiles are

862
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 1: good and that if we've seen players in history that

863
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 1: are like that guy, the two guys that I mentioned,

864
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 1: the model's not super super high on, but you can

865
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:57,319
Speaker 1: get a good you know, read on these names by

866
00:42:57,360 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 1: just looking at big boards honestly, and then just go

867
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 1: to their college reference page just see the raw production

868
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 1: that they had and then see if you want, I mean,

869
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:05,880
Speaker 1: if you want to dig in more, you can look

870
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 1: at receiving yards per team pass attempt. You can look

871
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 1: at all you know, go to PFF and get a

872
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:12,240
Speaker 1: subscription there and get some cool yards pera run numbers.

873
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,239
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, like I I was in that

874
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 1: phase literally a month ago, you know, learning learning these guys,

875
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 1: and then I just learned them because I have to

876
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:23,880
Speaker 1: write profiles. Well, I say have to. I'm blessed to write.

877
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 2: All of the profiles. Yes, privilege to yes for sure,

878
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 2: the late round main event. All right, I have the

879
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 2: privilege of unveiling the first year two wide receiver journey comps.

880
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 2: And again, uh, you know, we we went into a

881
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 2: yes last week, so we don't have to rehash it,

882
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 2: especially with the time crunch that we have. But there

883
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:52,280
Speaker 2: is no particular order with this group.

884
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:56,960
Speaker 1: Correct. And again, journey comps are looking at zapp scores

885
00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:59,720
Speaker 1: for these players, year two model scores for these players

886
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 1: and finding guys who went through a similar journey. Okay,

887
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:03,959
Speaker 1: and so what I'm giving you is not their top

888
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:07,080
Speaker 1: three comps. I'm giving you a low median and high

889
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:10,239
Speaker 1: comp for each of these guys based on how they

890
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 1: performed as prospects and then how they performed as year

891
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:16,760
Speaker 1: one players. We'll start with our boy front of the show. Yes,

892
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 1: Tedero McMillan, T mack Uh. He gets a low end

893
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:22,320
Speaker 1: comp of Jordan Matthews.

894
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:23,360
Speaker 2: Uh.

895
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 1: Which which, by the way, it's fitting that you're wearing

896
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 1: the vand he hat J Matt, J Matt, J Matt, Yeah,

897
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 1: J Matt. I don't think he was a good prospect

898
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:33,719
Speaker 1: and he had. He actually had some spikes in his

899
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 1: NFL career.

900
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:36,879
Speaker 2: It just wasn't just just a little slow, a little slow.

901
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 2: He had hands.

902
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,399
Speaker 1: Though. T Mac is not the same kind of player

903
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:42,480
Speaker 1: as that. His median outcome is Devonte Smith. His high

904
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:46,080
Speaker 1: end outcome is Justin Jefferson. Okay, the similarities for these

905
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 1: guys aren't unbelievable the scores. But t Mac is a

906
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:54,440
Speaker 1: is a really good player. Like I'm very like in

907
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:56,720
Speaker 1: on t Mac. I think he's gonna have a great career.

908
00:44:57,360 --> 00:44:59,319
Speaker 1: The only thing that the only question I have is

909
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 1: more situa, you know, with Bryce Young and what that

910
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 1: offense is really going to be able to provide for him.

911
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,279
Speaker 1: But the only rookie is to clear a twenty five

912
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:08,319
Speaker 1: percent target share in a one point eight yards per

913
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 1: rout run. Since twenty eleven, he was he was a

914
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:13,640
Speaker 1: decent amount of above that, but it was OBJ, Mike Evans,

915
00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 1: Pokin Akua, Justin Jefferson, BTJ, neighbors, Drake London, Chris Alave,

916
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 1: t Mac and then Kelvin Benjamin's in there too, So

917
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 1: that's a really good group to be part of. This

918
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 1: is my favorite t Mac stat though that I have

919
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:27,800
Speaker 1: in the year two write up for him in the

920
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 1: Prospect Guide. His first down share was thirty two point

921
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 1: four percent last year, So thirty two point four percent

922
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:38,360
Speaker 1: of their first downs went to Tetaroa McMillan. That was

923
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 1: the fourth highest mark in Year two model history at

924
00:45:41,520 --> 00:45:45,000
Speaker 1: wide receiver. The only players who are better Malik neighbors,

925
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 1: Odell Beckham and Pukinakua. So I think the only thing

926
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:54,239
Speaker 1: stopping ted Rohe McMillan at this point is situation. I

927
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:57,880
Speaker 1: think that he's hitting the higher end of his prospect

928
00:45:57,880 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 1: profile outcome, so he's he's in a good spot.

929
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 2: Okay, let's go to the next one. Is Jayden Higgins.

930
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think that people probably are dismissive of Higgins

931
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 1: because you know, it wasn't like he was like a

932
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 1: staple in fantasy football. But the Year two model doesn't

933
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 1: totally mind him. He's you know, these are the top

934
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 1: six players in the Year two model. Again, no particular order.

935
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 1: You can kind of probably project what the order is

936
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 1: and what the scores are, but regardless, he had a

937
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:33,799
Speaker 1: respectable enough rookie season one point four or five yards

938
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 1: per out run, a zero percent catch trade over expected.

939
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 1: He was better than both Christian Kirk and Xavier Hutchinson

940
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 1: and yards per out run EPA per target catch trade

941
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:46,240
Speaker 1: over expected all while having an a dot over twelve yards.

942
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:48,239
Speaker 1: He was seeing down the field looks, so he was

943
00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:50,400
Speaker 1: able to do all that stuff you know, down the

944
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:54,320
Speaker 1: field and having a more comprehensive like, you know, depth

945
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:59,280
Speaker 1: with his with each target. He reached an eighty percent

946
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 1: round share three times last year in those three games,

947
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:04,319
Speaker 1: eleven point nine, ten point three and thirteen point four

948
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 1: PPR points per game. Now, that's not gonna win you leagues,

949
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:10,399
Speaker 1: But as a rookie, uh, you know, with a very

950
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:15,759
Speaker 1: questionable offensive line and a questionable quarterback, I think that

951
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,000
Speaker 1: Jayden Higgins had a pretty solid year. I don't think

952
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:21,280
Speaker 1: that he's a stud. Is His low comp is Doriol

953
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:24,280
Speaker 1: Green Beckham. Don't think we're gonna hit that. His median

954
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:26,920
Speaker 1: one was Michael Pittman, and then his high end one

955
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:30,080
Speaker 1: was Devonte Adams. I think I think a Michael Pittman

956
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:35,120
Speaker 1: like career, maybe without the consistent volume, is definitely in

957
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 1: play for Jaden Higgins.

958
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 2: Okay, that was kind of like the appetizer Jayden Higgins was,

959
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 2: uh and and Ted you know that was that was

960
00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:49,480
Speaker 2: this tax oh Ted ted Row yes, t Mac Yeah,

961
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 2: sorry for end of the show. We can't.

962
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:54,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's like calling me like like my real name,

963
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 1: my real name, which.

964
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:59,359
Speaker 2: We're not going to right now. But this guy, we

965
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:02,319
Speaker 2: are going to his full name because this is what

966
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:06,320
Speaker 2: people want, this with their tune in for a Mecca

967
00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:07,240
Speaker 2: Buka JJ.

968
00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 1: Yeah.

969
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:11,839
Speaker 2: Look, talk about a roller coaster season last year.

970
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 1: I'll give you the low median and high comps. The

971
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 1: low comp is Kendall Wright, who he actually does comp

972
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 1: relatively favorable to. You can go look at Kendall Wright's

973
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:22,399
Speaker 1: rookie season numbers and are not as bad as you think.

974
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:26,520
Speaker 1: Uh Median Jordan Addison, which I think is probably fair.

975
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:29,440
Speaker 1: High end is DeAndre Hopkins, right, so he just becomes

976
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:32,160
Speaker 1: a stud in a year in year out wide receiver

977
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 1: one to two in fantasy football. I looked into this

978
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 1: because his season was so bizarre a Mecca Buca where

979
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:42,280
Speaker 1: first six weeks of the year he's like a wide receiver,

980
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:45,360
Speaker 1: easy wide receiver, one winner, yeah, yeah, league winner, and

981
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 1: then he's completely worthless from a fantasy perspective. From then

982
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:51,920
Speaker 1: on out. There really are not any comps at all.

983
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:55,120
Speaker 1: Since twenty eleven of players who did what he did

984
00:48:55,520 --> 00:48:58,759
Speaker 1: to start and then finish. The one that was closest

985
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:02,279
Speaker 1: was probably like Calvin Ridley, but it still doesn't come

986
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:05,399
Speaker 1: close to what happened with a Mecca Buca. But look

987
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:09,359
Speaker 1: like you can't just look at like, you know, this

988
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:11,120
Speaker 1: set of games and this set of games, so you

989
00:49:11,160 --> 00:49:14,200
Speaker 1: gotta look at the bigger picture and over that bigger picture,

990
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:16,640
Speaker 1: a Mecca Buca had a one point seventy five yards

991
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 1: perou run rate. He had a target share just under

992
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:21,480
Speaker 1: twenty four percent. He had the second most first downs

993
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 1: among this wide receiver class. There are eight wide receivers

994
00:49:24,719 --> 00:49:27,920
Speaker 1: within three points of a Mecca Buca's year two scorer

995
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 1: who had yards perou runs as rookies above one point six.

996
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:36,520
Speaker 1: Those eight wide receivers are a Rob DJ Moore, DK Metcalf,

997
00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:40,319
Speaker 1: Terry McLaurin, Chase Claypool, Aman Ross, Saint Brown, Rashid Rice,

998
00:49:40,360 --> 00:49:43,880
Speaker 1: and Ze Flowers. So there's a lot of good surrounding

999
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:46,480
Speaker 1: a Mecca Buka from from a comp perspective and what

1000
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:49,719
Speaker 1: we've seen historically, I'm still in like, I think he's good.

1001
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 1: I don't think he's a screaming value in dynasty because

1002
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 1: he's ranked pretty high in Dynasty, right but I would

1003
00:49:56,560 --> 00:49:59,759
Speaker 1: take him over Romadunze in Dynasty right now.

1004
00:50:01,040 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 2: Roma Doonza had a teammate that is like the opposite

1005
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:09,719
Speaker 2: he ended on a high note and that Smith miss

1006
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 2: mister miter Luther Burden.

1007
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:14,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, you guys know that I'm a big Luther

1008
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:18,440
Speaker 1: Burden guy. His low comp was we Shot Bateman Median

1009
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:21,440
Speaker 1: Brandon Cooks high was Jackson Smith and Jigba. That high

1010
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:25,520
Speaker 1: comp though the similarity isn't like absurdly good. The one

1011
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 1: thing I'll say, though, is that a lot of his

1012
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 1: comps are just very solid. They're like in that Brandon

1013
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:34,360
Speaker 1: Cooks type range right where it's just like the you know,

1014
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:36,359
Speaker 1: Brandon Cooks was a wide receiver two for a lot

1015
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:38,480
Speaker 1: of his career, like a very very strong career from

1016
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 1: a fantasy perspective. But here's the real, Like this is

1017
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 1: just what's real. I talked about this in the Mailbag episode.

1018
00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:46,080
Speaker 1: But he failed to reach a seventy percent target our

1019
00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:49,400
Speaker 1: route share in a single game last year. He averaged

1020
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:52,359
Speaker 1: eight point six PPR points per game. Only twenty wide

1021
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:55,040
Speaker 1: receivers with fewer than ten PPR points per game as

1022
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:57,839
Speaker 1: rookies in the year two model went on the score

1023
00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 1: fourteen or more PPR points in years two, three or four, right,

1024
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:05,759
Speaker 1: So there's not a ton of precedent for this kind

1025
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:09,200
Speaker 1: of profile. With that being said, his yards broout Romo

1026
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 1: was two point six y nine, third best among wide

1027
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 1: receivers with one hundred and more routes behind Obj Martabis Bryant.

1028
00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 1: You just have to do some projecting with Luther Burden period,

1029
00:51:18,239 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 1: end of story. You have to say to yourself, how

1030
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:23,520
Speaker 1: did he look as a prospect? Did we think that

1031
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:25,080
Speaker 1: he could be more than a slock guy?

1032
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:25,880
Speaker 2: I did.

1033
00:51:26,440 --> 00:51:30,000
Speaker 1: I loved his profile right because he had that crazy

1034
00:51:30,040 --> 00:51:32,360
Speaker 1: peak as a sophomore. And then you have to just

1035
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:35,520
Speaker 1: project and say, I trust this scheme, I trust this offense.

1036
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:38,440
Speaker 1: And there's a chance that DJ Moore is no longer

1037
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:40,799
Speaker 1: on the Bears, as we talked about earlier. So I'm

1038
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:43,600
Speaker 1: still bullish on Luther Burden. You know, you can see

1039
00:51:43,600 --> 00:51:46,400
Speaker 1: his comps there. It's not all butterflies and rainbows. You

1040
00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:48,560
Speaker 1: have to take a chance sometimes. You got to take

1041
00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:50,920
Speaker 1: a chance in dynasty. You know it's not gonna work

1042
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 1: out every time, but if you if you're at least

1043
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:55,120
Speaker 1: thoughtful about it, it'll work out more often than not.

1044
00:51:56,680 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 2: Ben Johnson was at the podium at the Combine saying

1045
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:05,720
Speaker 2: he can't wait to see what Burden and Colston Lovelan

1046
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:07,759
Speaker 2: their study with a full year.

1047
00:52:07,880 --> 00:52:10,800
Speaker 1: Colten Lovelan is a is A is a stud period

1048
00:52:10,960 --> 00:52:14,280
Speaker 1: I will I can go out like I will stand

1049
00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:18,160
Speaker 1: on that and say I feel way more comfortable about

1050
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:21,279
Speaker 1: Colston Lovelan at his position than Luther Burden at his

1051
00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:24,120
Speaker 1: only because I think Holston Lovelan is that good. It

1052
00:52:24,120 --> 00:52:25,799
Speaker 1: has nothing to do with Luther Burton. It's just there's

1053
00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:28,760
Speaker 1: more variant. Like I, Colston Lovelin I think is a legit,

1054
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:29,840
Speaker 1: bonafide stud.

1055
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 2: I would just say any sort of positive speak that

1056
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:36,120
Speaker 2: comes out of Ben Johnson regarding Luther Burden I'm here

1057
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 2: for because it was like kind of the opposite at

1058
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:40,200
Speaker 2: the beginning of last year.

1059
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:42,360
Speaker 1: Ye to me, I really truly think that it was

1060
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:44,240
Speaker 1: a match made like this is where landing spot matters

1061
00:52:44,280 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 1: a lot. I don't know if Luther Burton's doing this

1062
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:50,160
Speaker 1: in another spot, but I think that Ben Johnson's offensive

1063
00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:52,439
Speaker 1: scheme in mind and being able to scheme guys open

1064
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:54,480
Speaker 1: the way that he does, on top of his kind

1065
00:52:54,480 --> 00:52:57,600
Speaker 1: of like no nonsense mentality. I think it's good for Burden,

1066
00:52:57,719 --> 00:53:01,040
Speaker 1: who you know, people quite I don't no Burden personally,

1067
00:53:01,200 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 1: but people question his off the field stuff entering the

1068
00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:08,360
Speaker 1: league and whether but like it seems like the match

1069
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 1: has really really been there between Johnson and Burden, and

1070
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:13,399
Speaker 1: that's what gets me excited too.

1071
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 2: Okay, you might not be so excited about the next

1072
00:53:17,560 --> 00:53:20,000
Speaker 2: guy if if you drafted him with any sort of

1073
00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:23,680
Speaker 2: high draft pick in last year's drafts, it's Matthew Golden.

1074
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, so his low I'll be honest. Okay, Golden's Golden's

1075
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 1: like high, like best comps are are pretty rough. kJ

1076
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:33,800
Speaker 1: Hammler is the low one here Median as Ricky Pierson

1077
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:36,280
Speaker 1: high ends DeVante Adams, so he did get Adams similar

1078
00:53:36,280 --> 00:53:40,640
Speaker 1: to Jaydan Higgins, which you know makes sense because Higgins

1079
00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 1: entering the league didn't have like if you if you

1080
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:46,839
Speaker 1: look at Higgins and his he had ninety six point

1081
00:53:46,920 --> 00:53:49,360
Speaker 1: one with with DeVante Adams and and Matthew Goldens at

1082
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:52,440
Speaker 1: ninety five point eight, so relatively similar. And part of

1083
00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:55,760
Speaker 1: that is because Matthew Golden was overdrafted by this according

1084
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 1: to ZAP model, where he went Jayden Higgins was kind

1085
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:00,239
Speaker 1: of neutral, just kind of like, yeah, he's fine, and

1086
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:03,080
Speaker 1: so theo's app scores weren't that that different. And then

1087
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:05,799
Speaker 1: you know, Golden was a worst producer in year one,

1088
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:10,240
Speaker 1: But that's why you're getting a similar comp there, because

1089
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:12,600
Speaker 1: the year one numbers aren't doing that much work for

1090
00:54:12,680 --> 00:54:14,719
Speaker 1: Jayden Higgins, like he went like off. You know, as

1091
00:54:14,760 --> 00:54:17,480
Speaker 1: as a first year player, you do have to remember

1092
00:54:17,880 --> 00:54:22,360
Speaker 1: that last year, Matthew Golden entered as an overrated prospect,

1093
00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:25,520
Speaker 1: like there were reasons to believe that it might not

1094
00:54:25,600 --> 00:54:28,400
Speaker 1: be the biggest deal in the world. But his production

1095
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:31,360
Speaker 1: profile was lacking, and you know, there's a lot of

1096
00:54:31,400 --> 00:54:34,120
Speaker 1: recency bias going on with how he finished his season

1097
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:37,239
Speaker 1: versus how good he actually was. And if you look

1098
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:39,759
Speaker 1: at history now and where we're at among all year

1099
00:54:39,800 --> 00:54:42,000
Speaker 1: two wide receivers, we failed to reach seven PPR points

1100
00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 1: per game as rookies, So Golden was at five point three.

1101
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:47,719
Speaker 1: Only seven scored fourteen or more PPR points per game,

1102
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:50,600
Speaker 1: and year's two, three and four. Two of those guys

1103
00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:53,439
Speaker 1: were Randall Cobb and Chris Godwin, who had elite yards

1104
00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:55,680
Speaker 1: per hour runs as rookies, right, they just weren't seeing

1105
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:58,760
Speaker 1: the volume and then the other guys they weren't players

1106
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:02,279
Speaker 1: that we really thought of as like year in, year out,

1107
00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:04,920
Speaker 1: you know, studs in fantasy football. Is one point three

1108
00:55:05,000 --> 00:55:07,400
Speaker 1: five yards per run rate not good but not the

1109
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:11,359
Speaker 1: worst that we've seen. My my biggest question though, because

1110
00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:14,359
Speaker 1: I think that when you match his low points per game,

1111
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:17,799
Speaker 1: and like for a rookie, a relatively okay enough, it's

1112
00:55:17,840 --> 00:55:20,080
Speaker 1: not good, but one point three five yards per run,

1113
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:22,759
Speaker 1: that just tells you why didn't they use him more?

1114
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:25,839
Speaker 1: You know, and you could sit there and say, well,

1115
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:29,000
Speaker 1: they have all this guy. The competition was hurt for

1116
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:31,200
Speaker 1: a lot of the year, whether it be Christian Watson

1117
00:55:31,239 --> 00:55:31,960
Speaker 1: or Jaden Reid.

1118
00:55:32,600 --> 00:55:32,719
Speaker 2: Uh.

1119
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:38,399
Speaker 1: I just I'm very concerned about Matthew Golden's profile. If

1120
00:55:38,400 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 1: you want to buy in shore, you know, it's it's

1121
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 1: not like gonna burn youard your dynasty rosters. But this

1122
00:55:44,080 --> 00:55:45,640
Speaker 1: is the kind of player that if you can sell

1123
00:55:45,680 --> 00:55:48,120
Speaker 1: for a reasonable price, I think it's it's a it's

1124
00:55:48,120 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 1: a decent thing to do.

1125
00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:51,799
Speaker 2: Just tell whoever you're selling to that he scored a

1126
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:55,120
Speaker 2: touchdown in the playoffs, so you just you know, I.

1127
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:57,280
Speaker 1: Mean, had a good playoff game. I think that he's

1128
00:55:57,320 --> 00:56:01,080
Speaker 1: like capable of those spiked weeks. Still, I just don't

1129
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:03,760
Speaker 1: know if we're gonna see the consistency, especially within that offense.

1130
00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:06,600
Speaker 1: Like that's my fear. Like I know that me saying

1131
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:09,920
Speaker 1: that he's a sell. If Week one comes around and

1132
00:56:09,960 --> 00:56:12,080
Speaker 1: he has like a one hundred and five yard game

1133
00:56:12,360 --> 00:56:14,879
Speaker 1: on six catches and a couple scores or something, I'll

1134
00:56:14,920 --> 00:56:16,799
Speaker 1: hear it. But I just don't think that's gonna be

1135
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:18,480
Speaker 1: the thing that we see week in and week out

1136
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 1: from a player of this archetype.

1137
00:56:21,239 --> 00:56:24,840
Speaker 2: Okay, speaking of archetype, we've got a weird one with

1138
00:56:25,000 --> 00:56:26,960
Speaker 2: this one.

1139
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:34,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, low end, Tevon Austin, median end, Quentin Johnston and

1140
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:39,400
Speaker 1: al Sean Jeffery. Look, I mean, look does that model

1141
00:56:39,600 --> 00:56:39,719
Speaker 1: do you?

1142
00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:39,920
Speaker 2: Guys?

1143
00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:42,120
Speaker 1: Do you remember the conversations I had with people last

1144
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 1: year I was Hunter's analytical profile and like it just

1145
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:49,080
Speaker 1: wasn't there, But I myself, I excused it. And this

1146
00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:52,320
Speaker 1: is why I'm never gonna do something like this again.

1147
00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:55,720
Speaker 1: Where I made way too many excuses where there.

1148
00:56:55,640 --> 00:56:57,439
Speaker 2: Might not be something like this again.

1149
00:56:57,640 --> 00:56:59,120
Speaker 1: You're not going to That's why I didn't know what

1150
00:56:59,120 --> 00:57:02,280
Speaker 1: to do, and that's why people in the guide whenever

1151
00:57:02,320 --> 00:57:04,759
Speaker 1: I ranked these guys. If you read the blurbs, it's like,

1152
00:57:05,200 --> 00:57:07,160
Speaker 1: you know, play it safe with tenor Roe McMillan, or

1153
00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:08,640
Speaker 1: if you want to really shoot for the moon, go

1154
00:57:08,719 --> 00:57:13,200
Speaker 1: with Travis Hunter. But there were questions about his profile. Now,

1155
00:57:13,719 --> 00:57:16,400
Speaker 1: I thought before I even called him a bye, right

1156
00:57:16,440 --> 00:57:19,960
Speaker 1: before he got hurt, right and I thought he was

1157
00:57:20,000 --> 00:57:23,480
Speaker 1: going to take over as their wide receiver won in

1158
00:57:23,520 --> 00:57:25,080
Speaker 1: that offense during the second half of the year, and

1159
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:27,919
Speaker 1: then he obviously got hurt, and that led to them

1160
00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:31,360
Speaker 1: not only Parker Washington emerging as a legit threat, but

1161
00:57:31,440 --> 00:57:34,320
Speaker 1: them trading for Jacoby Myers and signing him. So now

1162
00:57:34,880 --> 00:57:37,920
Speaker 1: you situationally, you have three really good wide receivers and

1163
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:41,919
Speaker 1: Brian Thomas junior, Parker Washington, and Jacoby Myers, and there's

1164
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:44,200
Speaker 1: already all this stuff going on about him playing more

1165
00:57:44,240 --> 00:57:47,080
Speaker 1: corner next year. Is one point three two yards per

1166
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:49,920
Speaker 1: our run? Wasn't that great? You know? Even the one

1167
00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:53,720
Speaker 1: of the arguments for Travis Hunter was that he was

1168
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:55,920
Speaker 1: so good at wide receiver that when he's on the field,

1169
00:57:56,240 --> 00:57:58,520
Speaker 1: they'll just hyper target him. When he is on the field,

1170
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:01,560
Speaker 1: he had a twenty percent targets PERU run rate this

1171
00:58:01,600 --> 00:58:04,000
Speaker 1: past year. That's not that's not special. Like, like I

1172
00:58:04,000 --> 00:58:06,800
Speaker 1: said earlier, Luther Burton was at like twenty five percent.

1173
00:58:07,000 --> 00:58:10,320
Speaker 1: So I'm I am very concerned. I mean I had

1174
00:58:10,400 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 1: I had Travis Hunter as a cell a month ago

1175
00:58:12,120 --> 00:58:14,080
Speaker 1: on the Cell Candidate's episode. These last two guys I

1176
00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:16,000
Speaker 1: both had cells. I don't know what the market is

1177
00:58:16,000 --> 00:58:19,400
Speaker 1: saying about Hunter right now, but I am definitely concerned

1178
00:58:19,400 --> 00:58:21,600
Speaker 1: about him in fantasy football. There's no doubt.

1179
00:58:21,760 --> 00:58:23,919
Speaker 2: And again, if you go back and look, people still

1180
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:25,960
Speaker 2: cling to that last game he had before he got hurt.

1181
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 2: If you go back and look at where those catches happened,

1182
00:58:29,920 --> 00:58:31,120
Speaker 2: it was in garbage time.

1183
00:58:31,560 --> 00:58:32,640
Speaker 1: A lot of it was garbage time.

1184
00:58:32,680 --> 00:58:34,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, and there were.

1185
00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:36,160
Speaker 1: Some there were some plays in that game that were

1186
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:39,880
Speaker 1: that were pretty great. But yeah, I mean, like he's.

1187
00:58:39,680 --> 00:58:41,680
Speaker 2: An athlete, he's a free I mean, he's a freak

1188
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:44,480
Speaker 2: of nature is when it comes to like playing two positions.

1189
00:58:45,200 --> 00:58:46,240
Speaker 2: But if he made position.

1190
00:58:46,920 --> 00:58:49,800
Speaker 1: But but look, if he were a full time wide receiver, yeah,

1191
00:58:50,120 --> 00:58:53,200
Speaker 1: obviously his dynasty stock would rise. Right, he would be

1192
00:58:53,240 --> 00:58:55,720
Speaker 1: and he would probably still be somewhat of a cell

1193
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:58,760
Speaker 1: because because of that, like thinking about that, right, because

1194
00:58:59,240 --> 00:59:02,280
Speaker 1: I just don't think there's enough evidence right now analytically

1195
00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:06,080
Speaker 1: that tells us that Travis Hunter is a special talent

1196
00:59:06,200 --> 00:59:10,600
Speaker 1: or a special player. There's far more evidence of Luther Burden,

1197
00:59:11,040 --> 00:59:14,880
Speaker 1: of a Mecca Buca, of obviously Tedoro McMillan. You know,

1198
00:59:15,040 --> 00:59:18,600
Speaker 1: then there is Travis Hunter. So if he were playing

1199
00:59:18,640 --> 00:59:21,800
Speaker 1: full time wide receiver, and if he were hypothetically being

1200
00:59:21,880 --> 00:59:25,120
Speaker 1: ranked between a Mecca Buca and Luther Burden in Dynasty,

1201
00:59:25,160 --> 00:59:26,800
Speaker 1: I'd call him a cell then too. I mean, that's

1202
00:59:26,800 --> 00:59:28,560
Speaker 1: all straw man. I have no idea exactly where he

1203
00:59:28,600 --> 00:59:31,600
Speaker 1: would be ranked and such, but yeah, I mean I

1204
00:59:32,120 --> 00:59:35,919
Speaker 1: think that there's enough evidence of like this looking more

1205
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:39,760
Speaker 1: negative than positive, you know, moving forward? Good stuff.

1206
00:59:39,840 --> 00:59:45,560
Speaker 2: Jj uh. That will wrap up the year two journey

1207
00:59:45,560 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 2: comps for wide receivers again, we'll have lots more info

1208
00:59:49,400 --> 00:59:57,280
Speaker 2: in the uh in the prospect guy he said, uh

1209
00:59:57,320 --> 01:00:02,160
Speaker 2: so we will U that was an accidental click.

1210
01:00:03,120 --> 01:00:04,960
Speaker 1: You're just you're just getting so hype to move on.

1211
01:00:05,240 --> 01:00:08,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, we're we're we're ending it. But but the

1212
01:00:09,040 --> 01:00:13,080
Speaker 2: Year two prospect guide, we have the year two prospects,

1213
01:00:13,120 --> 01:00:16,000
Speaker 2: we have rookies in the prospect we have Dynasty rankings,

1214
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:24,160
Speaker 2: all that stuff. Yeah, so look for to see. Yes,

1215
01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:25,480
Speaker 2: Rookie Draft rings.

1216
01:00:25,600 --> 01:00:28,920
Speaker 1: Up rankings are on the Patreon Yes, yeah.

1217
01:00:30,160 --> 01:00:33,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, sorry about that. Also, you can't I

1218
01:00:33,360 --> 01:00:35,440
Speaker 2: don't think you could hear it. But whatever I said

1219
01:00:35,680 --> 01:00:40,000
Speaker 2: triggered Alexa in the in the family room and they

1220
01:00:40,000 --> 01:00:42,840
Speaker 2: were just like it's blaring. It was like talking about something.

1221
01:00:42,840 --> 01:00:45,760
Speaker 2: I don't know what it was. So it's like getting

1222
01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:46,840
Speaker 2: me off off kilter.

1223
01:00:46,920 --> 01:00:48,280
Speaker 1: But yeah, let's let's wrap this up.

1224
01:00:48,360 --> 01:00:52,080
Speaker 2: JJ again, special thanks to for DraftKings of the early

1225
01:00:52,160 --> 01:00:56,560
Speaker 2: best ball stuff going on right now. Any closing thoughts

1226
01:00:56,560 --> 01:00:57,520
Speaker 2: from you, No.

1227
01:00:57,560 --> 01:00:59,760
Speaker 1: I'm excited for the combine and we'll we'll talk more

1228
01:00:59,760 --> 01:01:01,960
Speaker 1: cop buying on the show. Basically, next week is just

1229
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:06,439
Speaker 1: a combine week for analysis with Late Round.

1230
01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:10,160
Speaker 2: You're gonna be just hold in on Saturday.

1231
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:12,600
Speaker 1: I am, I will be around, I'll be on social,

1232
01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:16,040
Speaker 1: I'll be in the discord talking common.

1233
01:01:17,200 --> 01:01:21,400
Speaker 2: Good stuff. Can't wait for it. Appreciate everyone for tuning in,

1234
01:01:22,000 --> 01:01:26,640
Speaker 2: for leaving comments against interactive show, so feel free to

1235
01:01:26,720 --> 01:01:29,640
Speaker 2: leave some feedback and we'll see you next time here

1236
01:01:29,760 --> 01:01:32,840
Speaker 2: on the Late Round Fantasy Football show sponsored by DraftKings.

1237
01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:33,160
Speaker 2: Peace