1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's get to our 7 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:25,440 Speaker 1: next guest, always a highlight of the week, Vince Cgnerella, 8 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: global macro strategist for Bloomberg News, the master of work 9 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 1: from Home. So, Vince, we got some retail sales numbers today. 10 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,919 Speaker 1: I think they're pretty good. I got target reporting numbers. Yeah, 11 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: they were really bad as they just kind of throwing 12 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:40,479 Speaker 1: the kitchen Zinc getting clearing out their inventory. But they 13 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 1: say the consumers looking good for the back half of 14 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:44,959 Speaker 1: the year in terms of buying. What did you make 15 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 1: of some of this retail stuff today and what like 16 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:49,919 Speaker 1: you said, it wasn't that at all, um. You know, 17 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:53,520 Speaker 1: any reductions in the retail sales numbers came from gas 18 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 1: and energy. So as consumers cut back on some driving 19 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: because of the high gas prices, you know that slow 20 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 1: retail sales. But we're starting to see that shift lower 21 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: once again, you know, from six dollars a gallant to 22 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 1: you know, just on their fish. UM. So that might 23 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 1: lift future retail sales. But to me, the the issue 24 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:16,680 Speaker 1: going forward with retail sales still is on the revolving 25 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:20,039 Speaker 1: credit side. We've seen revolving credit jump by a third, 26 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: same numbers were reported this morning in the UK. People 27 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: are actually, you know, showing signs of borrowing on their 28 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 1: credit cards, which is a terrible sign. Uh, and also 29 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 1: running balances on their credit cards. And of course that 30 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: users interest rates. You wonder how long that could last. 31 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 1: So the future is going to be very interesting if 32 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 1: we don't start to see some wage games. I'm not 33 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 1: sure the consumer can carry us in the fourth quarter 34 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: simply because they're they're borrowing, is they're just going to 35 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: run it hit a wall. And meanwhile, people who think 36 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 1: the FED needs to keep raising rates are saying, you know, 37 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: five percent average hourly earnings, it's way too steep and 38 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 1: it indicates a price wage viral. Do you disagree? UM? 39 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 1: You know, we saw something just came out of biding panel. 40 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 1: UM did an evaluation and they recommended to what was it? 41 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 1: I think the freight industry. Let's see the rail bid 42 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: and rail panel recommends a wage hike through two thousand four, 43 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:24,960 Speaker 1: So clearly, yeah, exactly a lot of work. Um. I 44 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: don't think we'll see the wage price spiral that people 45 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: are talking about, simply because I don't think we're going 46 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: to have earnings to support that. If we if we 47 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:38,919 Speaker 1: get any kind of increase like that in wages, we're 48 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: gonna see a bigger increase in prices. Companies are not 49 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 1: going to eat this, They're gonna pass it along. And 50 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: when they pass off those prices, you know, I guess 51 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:49,080 Speaker 1: that's why people see the wage wage price final They 52 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 1: think that this is going to be some sort of 53 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 1: what workers ask for more, So companies have to raise more. 54 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 1: Companies raise more, so workers have to ask for more. 55 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: I just don't see the economy by being able to 56 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 1: sustain that. So but if that in fact occurs or 57 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 1: is occurring, does that not suggest that the Fed has 58 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 1: to be more aggressive? And I know you have a 59 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: you know a little bit of a problem with our 60 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:13,399 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve these days. I do because when you look 61 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:15,799 Speaker 1: at what the Federal Reserve is doing there there are 62 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 1: basically two areas. The CPI shelter. So the FED can 63 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 1: in theory manipulate that because by raising interest rates they 64 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: make it more difficult to borrow and and it's its 65 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 1: stalls housing meains. Yeah, the problem is then those people 66 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 1: have to rent and that and exactly so you know, 67 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: it's it's a double edged sword when the when the 68 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 1: FED gets involved that way. And I my concern with 69 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: that is, you know, there's a demand and supply chain story, 70 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 1: you know, demand and supply or the equilibrium levels if 71 00:03:54,280 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 1: it should the FED be trying to curb demand um 72 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 1: when the real issue was supply and and maybe they're 73 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 1: just missing missing the mark. And it's my feeling that 74 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 1: what's causing inflation right now is not something that FED 75 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 1: can defeat, and they're better off taking their handle off 76 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 1: the wheel and trying to see if the economy can 77 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:18,720 Speaker 1: scored itself out. We've already seen, you know, moderation and 78 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 1: home prices and moderation and inflation because of what the 79 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 1: FED has done so far. You know, if the FED 80 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 1: wants to go back to their textbooks, what they should 81 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 1: be doing is waiting six months to see how this 82 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 1: works before going again to just keep going. You don't 83 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 1: really know the effect of that, right, I mean much 84 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: and Vincent in the last hour, Tom Keane was, you know, 85 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 1: house hunting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and he found a 86 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 1: four bedroom cabin that was assessed for a couple hundred grand, 87 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: that was listed for four point five million dollars um. 88 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:52,679 Speaker 1: To the extent that the housing market has seen its peak, 89 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 1: how does that impact this economy and the FED and 90 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 1: consumers and all that. Well, you know, if there are 91 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 1: lots of lots of corrections in housing that you know 92 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,840 Speaker 1: go unnoticed that people don't realize because you don't sell 93 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 1: a house every year and and things like that, so 94 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: you don't really check where your home price is, you know, 95 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 1: like you look at your your stock portfolio, um, because 96 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 1: you just don't roll it over as um. But you know, 97 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 1: as long as that correction is modest, it's it's not 98 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:26,839 Speaker 1: a huge effect on the economy. It's when you have 99 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 1: something crippling like two eight that would become insignition. So Vince, 100 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 1: I gotta ask as a macro strategist or as a trader, um, 101 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 1: it's more important your forecast about what the FED is 102 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:42,039 Speaker 1: going to do then what you think the FED should do. Right, 103 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:44,600 Speaker 1: So if you think the pot the Fed should be 104 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: pausing and waiting six months. They're clearly not going to 105 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: do that. No, absolutely not. They are going to hike 106 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,120 Speaker 1: in September. I think the key question is is a 107 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 1: fifty or seventy five? Personally, I'd like to see them 108 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 1: do fifty and send a positive message to the markets 109 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 1: that you know, they're they're not. They don't have blinders on. 110 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,360 Speaker 1: They see that the data is slowing down and that 111 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 1: you know, they can maybe take the foot off the 112 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 1: gas going forward. I would love to see them, you know, 113 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:12,599 Speaker 1: but they're gonna laise in September. They basically set a period. 114 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 1: I would love to see them stop after that. I 115 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: think they if the data continues soft and from the 116 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:23,160 Speaker 1: minute today to where we are today, the data is 117 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:25,839 Speaker 1: rolled over right now. If it rolls over again, I 118 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:29,280 Speaker 1: think maybe they stopped all right. Vincegnarella always good to 119 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:31,719 Speaker 1: chat with you. We try to get Vince on every week, 120 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 1: get his perspective and spent decades on the street trading currencies, 121 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: trading corporates. Uh, he kind of knows what's going on there. 122 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:40,800 Speaker 1: He still talks to the traders all the time, so 123 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: it gives us a good view of that market. Vince Signerella, 124 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: a global macro strategist for Bloomberg News, famously phoning it 125 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 1: in and proudly phoning it in red headline across the 126 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal, Blmot Sacks cuts China GDP forecast to three 127 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: pc from three point three percent. Remember the days when 128 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:05,479 Speaker 1: it was just a layup to do six or seven 129 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: MDP growth. You can't keep shutting down your economy every 130 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 1: fifteen minutes. I mean that was was that nominal or 131 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 1: that that wasn't real GDP growth? Right? That was nominal 132 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 1: when they were when they were posting those big numbers. 133 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 1: But nonetheless, Um, this is important because they're supposed to 134 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 1: do five right according to the Communist Party's forecast at least, 135 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 1: so they're gonna miss that by a mile. And my 136 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 1: question every time we have one of these negative stories 137 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 1: out on China there was one, you know Monday was 138 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 1: a really bad narrative as well, Um is how long 139 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 1: does she jing ping last? Does he get his third term? 140 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: That's exactly right, And everybody, you know, we need to 141 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 1: get Leland Millard trying to beige book on because he 142 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: is my man on the ground or unemployment for kids 143 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 1: unemployment there, Yeah, how do you get reelected? I don't 144 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 1: We'll see. All right, let's bring our next guest. We'll 145 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 1: keep it on the economic call. Jennifer Lee, senior economist 146 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 1: and managing director for PIMO Capital Markets. Jennifer, we had 147 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 1: a bunch of retail sales data today. I'm gonna call 148 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 1: it a little bit better and expected. We had some 149 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 1: mixed numbers out of the retailers. It seems like they're 150 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 1: cleaning up their inventory issues. As you look at the 151 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 1: retail numbers across the board, what's it telling me about 152 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 1: the consumer here? Well, good morning. I think the numbers 153 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 1: are sort of telling us that we again we cannot 154 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: completely uh discount the American consumer ever. Um, you know, 155 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 1: the headline was a bit disappointing obviously, but all of 156 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: it was gas and maybe in a good way because 157 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 1: gasoline prices are still below the four dollar per gallon 158 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 1: level for the second week in a row, I believe. So, 159 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: you know, obviously consumers are feeling the pain, you know, 160 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:37,439 Speaker 1: the pain afford or high inflation that's really hitting home. 161 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 1: But the positive influences there, like the gas prices, you know, 162 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: is is definitely a good thing and it shows that 163 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 1: consumers are still buying. There's still going out for lunch, 164 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:47,560 Speaker 1: there's still going out for a drink. You know, they're 165 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 1: still buying more electronics and furniture, but just getting less 166 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: bang for their book. We appreciate all of that, but 167 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 1: are consumers starting to charge this stuff and and not 168 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 1: pay off their balances? That's what Events was just telling us. 169 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: And I noticed the savings rate is now down to 170 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 1: five um, you know, well below historical averages, which for 171 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 1: Americans are already low. Right, So okay, so yes, I 172 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 1: am definitely getting worried on the on the on the 173 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 1: part of but charging a lot of their purchases. But 174 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 1: that's saving rate. We really have to take it with 175 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 1: a grain of salt. You know. It's it's income versus spending, 176 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 1: but it doesn't take ato account what your savings have been, 177 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 1: like what you have stocked way and when you look 178 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 1: at what Americans have um so far in their in 179 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: their bank accounts, they're checkable deposits of currency. So they 180 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 1: still have like over four um for four trillion dollars 181 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:42,079 Speaker 1: still stocked up in there, and a lot of this 182 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 1: probably um you know, coming off that peak already because 183 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 1: that's only for the first quarter, but that's still quit 184 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:49,440 Speaker 1: a bit that stalked away. And you know, if I 185 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:53,440 Speaker 1: make and I bring like a personal UM example of that. UM, 186 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: I definitely have a negative savings rate so far this year, Yes, 187 00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 1: and negative savings rate. And that's because you know, I 188 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 1: did man to save my pennies during the pandemic and 189 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:04,760 Speaker 1: I was working from home. And this year I have 190 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: you know, I'm I'm spending all my kitchen rental, which 191 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 1: is uh, you know, so I'm definitely spending a heck 192 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 1: of a lot more than than then I'm you know, 193 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,680 Speaker 1: than than my I've always wondered the savings rate that 194 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: we get from UM. It's the US personal savings rate 195 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:26,720 Speaker 1: as a percentage of disposable income. UM. I guess we 196 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 1: get it from the b l S or some subero 197 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 1: of Economic Analysis or yes, that's right, Burero of Economic Analysis. UM. 198 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: That doesn't count. For example, Paul has a giant walk in, say, 199 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,960 Speaker 1: filled with municipal bonds. That's not counted in his savings rate, right, 200 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:43,840 Speaker 1: even though those are legit savings. Right, It's like, you know, 201 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 1: your house could be worth you know, a trillion dollars, 202 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,439 Speaker 1: but you know, that's not gonna be counted in your 203 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 1: saving rates. So it's it's you know, you have stuff, 204 00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: you have your ass It's it's like a balance sheet 205 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 1: versus your income statement, right, so you know, it's it's 206 00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:59,320 Speaker 1: very interesting obviously to look at the saving rate just 207 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 1: to see what you know with the trenches, but it 208 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 1: doesn't take him to account the full picture of the 209 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,480 Speaker 1: health of the U. S. Consumer. All right, Jennifer, we're 210 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 1: sending Tom Keenan the Bloomberk surveillance team out to Jackson Hole. 211 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 1: What's the key question they should ask? You know what 212 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 1: I will be I don't think Jackson Hole is as 213 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 1: um market moving. I think, but like way back in 214 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:23,079 Speaker 1: the day during you know, for example, we're sending three 215 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 1: anchors out there, plus a whole television crew. Let me 216 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 1: whisper that. Um, you know, I mean I think he 217 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:32,079 Speaker 1: has said, you know, Feda Powell has has been very clear. 218 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 1: I mean, as I've said before on your show, I've 219 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 1: given him, you know, an a in communications. You know 220 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:39,320 Speaker 1: what you're saying, they're moving expeditiously to bring inflation down there, 221 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:42,439 Speaker 1: it could be appropriate to slow the piece of increases, 222 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 1: you know, Uh. Um, amester Can continues to say that 223 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 1: she wants to see compelling evidence of a of a 224 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 1: slow down instlation. You know, I don't know what more 225 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 1: they could say, Um too, you know that's gonna be 226 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:57,319 Speaker 1: new to to to markets except you know, maybe how 227 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: close they are, you know, But so that's what I 228 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: want to see, like for example, the minutes today. You know, um, 229 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 1: it'll be interesting to see. You know, what will it take? 230 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 1: You know, he did say this, it might be appropriate 231 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: to slow the piece of increases at some point when 232 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: we look at how policy is affecting the economy and inflicition. 233 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:11,839 Speaker 1: But you know exactly what it's gonna take. It is 234 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 1: gonna take that nine point six percent dive in housing 235 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 1: starts that we saw in July. You know it's going 236 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:16,959 Speaker 1: to take a heck of a lot more than that. 237 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:19,079 Speaker 1: You know, we're you know, yes, last week was all 238 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:22,200 Speaker 1: you know, confliction chatter. You know, you know it's going 239 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: to take a lot more than one last to get 240 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 1: the FED to turn around. All right, good stuff, Jennifer Lee. 241 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 1: Always appreciate getting your thoughts, your perspective. Jennifer Lee. She's 242 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 1: a senior economist and managing director at BMO Capital markets. BIMO. 243 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 1: That's the Bank of Montreal for those of us that 244 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 1: remember that, that was always worth a trip up to 245 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 1: Montreal to see Bimo. I want to bring in one 246 00:12:44,640 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 1: of my b f f's right now, one of my 247 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:52,199 Speaker 1: dear dear friends, Maria today. I used to be on 248 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg TV, and she's left us for well, it's a hiatus. 249 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: I think she's gone to Bloomberg opinion, Um for a while. 250 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:01,080 Speaker 1: We do these road atians every once in a while 251 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 1: to give people experience a different areas, which I think 252 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 1: is fantastic. But I miss her, sure, don't we all? 253 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:09,559 Speaker 1: I'd really like her back. Um. She joins us right 254 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:13,720 Speaker 1: now to talk about, uh, the situation in Europe in general. 255 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 1: I was gonna say a recent piece, but really she's 256 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 1: been writing about this for weeks and weeks. Um. The 257 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 1: situation in Germany is particularly problematic because um, of their 258 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,800 Speaker 1: reliance on Russian gas, and of course we all know 259 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:34,160 Speaker 1: what's happened there with Putin cutting down the UM pipeline 260 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 1: flows to about I believe of what they once were. Maria, Uh, 261 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: what's your focus right now? As we see not only 262 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 1: the problem in Germany but in France. The rivers are 263 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 1: so warm they can't um run their nuclear plants at 264 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 1: full and in the UK we have double digit inflation. 265 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: Everywhere across Europe. It seems there is a crisis. Yeah, 266 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:59,200 Speaker 1: and Matt, I have a date. I know when I'm 267 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 1: back in TV. I'm not gonna tell you because I 268 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 1: want to keep it. I want to keep the expectation. 269 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 1: But I have. Yeah, it's set out and and the 270 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 1: day you see me back in TV will be like, ah, 271 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 1: now it makes sense, Um, But you know, to to 272 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:15,680 Speaker 1: answer your question, I think this week there has been 273 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 1: some good news but a lot of bad news, and 274 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 1: I guess our job is to try to figure out 275 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 1: what's happening in between. The good news is that storage 276 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 1: is better than expected. Remember the European Union said this 277 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 1: year you have to take it seriously. You have to 278 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 1: fill up storage because it can make all the difference 279 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: between having to ration or not going into recession or not. 280 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 1: Germany had good news on Monday. There's se full. That's 281 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 1: for gas. They're running two weeks ahead of schedules, so 282 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 1: that means they're doing it faster. But the reasons for it, Matt, 283 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 1: they're not good. It means that demand has dropped for 284 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 1: a lot of consumers because we're concerned about the price 285 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 1: that coming the bills. Also for the industry, they worry 286 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 1: about the implications and the costs of this. And then 287 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 1: also you have the big industry, the big German industry 288 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 1: that's trying very very fast to switch from gas to 289 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 1: other fossil fruls, which you could argue is back through 290 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 1: the planet too, but it's also expensive for them, So 291 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 1: this is coming at a cost. So in reality, with 292 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 1: your face now is still the potential of Russia cutting 293 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 1: off to place, but also the fact that now it 294 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 1: is becoming clear that the bill for this will be 295 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: very expensive. The question is who's going to pay for it. 296 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: The Germans this week already said we have to let 297 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: that cost be paths through consumers. So that could lead 298 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 1: to a very shaky social winter in Germany if people 299 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 1: get furious about the fact that it's cold and they 300 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 1: have to choose between don't want to fill out the 301 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 1: car or buy more food. I mean, that's really a 302 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 1: scenario that we're facing. Well, and you have a story 303 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 1: on O P I N Go on the Bloomberg terminal 304 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 1: or Bloomberg dot com, slash opinion, um showing that this uh, 305 00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 1: this problem and the need for a real pality check 306 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 1: goes so far past Um the German borders into France 307 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 1: all the way to Spain and in the sort of 308 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 1: northwest corner of Galifiaia. Where's that? It's well, in the 309 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 1: northwest corner of Spain. Okay, Um, it's right right below Ovieto. 310 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: You know, have you ever been to Ovieto? No, it's 311 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 1: amazing if you go down. The next major city is Vigo. 312 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 1: Never been there? Madrid, dude, that's where the money is. 313 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 1: We have a little summer place in Cando. I love it. 314 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:32,600 Speaker 1: But um, how are they dealing with this? And what 315 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: are energy prices? And what's the crisis like in Spain? Yeah? 316 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: And you know the reason why I wrote about this, 317 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 1: and this is a great thing about opinion is I 318 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 1: do get to lash out in a way that is 319 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 1: justifiable because on TV there's a number of things that 320 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 1: I wish I could say, but of course, you know, 321 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 1: as a reporter, you always have to pretend to sides 322 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 1: to the story. Here right on opinion, where I have 323 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 1: a little bit more freedom, and this is a story 324 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 1: that to me, when I saw it, I just could 325 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 1: not believe it, and it made me furious. Um, we 326 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: talked about this idea of a very tough winter for 327 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 1: consumers for houses that really it could get very ugly 328 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: for a lot of people. And of course, at times 329 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 1: your privilege because you kind of go, oh, my bills 330 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 1: are gonna go up, But for a lot of people 331 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 1: this is a life change in situation. So then I 332 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: go on the Spanish TV, which I have still a 333 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 1: habit of watching, and I see this mayor who says, well, nonetheless, 334 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 1: we're still going ahead whether Christmas extravaganza, which means we're 335 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 1: gonna do like huge Christmas lights. We want to arrival 336 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 1: New York, and we should do it because Christmas is 337 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: important and the war should not crush the holiday in 338 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:36,439 Speaker 1: the Christmas spirit. And to me, the whiplash to the 339 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: average person here is so big where you're telling them, yeah, 340 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:42,360 Speaker 1: this winter is going to be very tough, set money 341 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,640 Speaker 1: aside for your bills, and then you go, but hey, 342 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 1: let me just plant a Christmas tree like nothing's changed 343 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: this winter. You know, you have to really change your 344 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: tone here and the way that you prep people who 345 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:56,639 Speaker 1: what could be very very rough winter, and the sooner 346 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 1: you do it, the better it is going to be, 347 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 1: because otherwise the whiplash in no Member December could be huge. 348 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:03,000 Speaker 1: But also you could get a lot of people down 349 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 1: the street seeing, well, you know, I don't want to 350 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,679 Speaker 1: pay my bills, or why should I listen to anything. 351 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 1: Politicians tell me they didn't really anticipate any of this. 352 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 1: So I think it's time to get serious on this. 353 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:17,159 Speaker 1: I gotta I take issue with one, uh sentence in 354 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 1: this story, Maria. You wrote that in Spain energy saving 355 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:23,119 Speaker 1: measures came into force last week, air conditioning will be 356 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:26,400 Speaker 1: said at twenty seven degrees celsius eighty and a half fahrenheit. Now, 357 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 1: I have been to the Moto g P and head F. 358 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 1: I've been to Alhambra twice. I met Zapatero in Madrid. 359 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 1: I've gone to the Running of the Bulls in Pamplona. 360 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,920 Speaker 1: I'm going to next week. Woman from Spain, let's be 361 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 1: there is no air traditioning in Spain. This is my point. 362 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 1: It's not it's not entirely true. You go to any 363 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 1: shopping center you have it, but I think that uh, 364 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,439 Speaker 1: you know again, this this was another point that to 365 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 1: me I just kind of went, guys, what are we 366 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:57,119 Speaker 1: making a big deal about a minimal This is a 367 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 1: minor change. Plus it's it's it's Spain. I mean every 368 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,280 Speaker 1: summer it's like this. You get to forty five degrees. 369 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 1: Since you're age twelve fifteen, your mom teaches you how 370 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 1: to deal with the heat. You know there's some much 371 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:11,439 Speaker 1: bigger story happening here. You know two degrees is not 372 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 1: going to change your life. The fact that some of 373 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,639 Speaker 1: the windows stores are gonna go black from ten pm. 374 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,880 Speaker 1: In reality, I understand there may be concerns about this 375 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:23,600 Speaker 1: is not good for tourism, it's not good perhaps for safety. 376 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 1: But on the other hand, we're being told this is exceptional. 377 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 1: I mean, this is just a one winter. Get it done. 378 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 1: Let's trying to do it in a way that we 379 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 1: all get the best of a really bad situation, and that, 380 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 1: of course next year turn up the Christmas lights, blast 381 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,160 Speaker 1: year conditioning. I don't agree with it for the most part. 382 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 1: You know, it doesn't have to be a freezer. But 383 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 1: if that's what you want to do, that's great. But 384 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 1: it needs to be obvious to people that this winter 385 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 1: is exceptional. The sooner this message gets across, I think, 386 00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 1: the better it will be. I love that the Spaniards 387 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,920 Speaker 1: are worried about turning off the lights in stores at 388 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 1: ten pm? Is that a thing? Ten pm is dinner 389 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 1: time in Spain. I know which I think it's it's 390 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 1: life is still going on. That's that's the thing. And 391 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:05,879 Speaker 1: I do agree with people who say, well, you know, 392 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 1: you go to a shopping center at tempt the amberish 393 00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 1: people out. You know those people are just paid, are leaving. 394 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:12,639 Speaker 1: So that is a third point. But I guess you know, 395 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: something's got to give and they've decided. Well, the temp 396 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 1: the end, that's what we're gonna do, all right, Maria, 397 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,480 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. We get the 398 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 1: reporting on the ground in Europe like nobody like Maria 399 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 1: can provide. Maria Today, Europe reporter for Bloomberg Opinion. I mean, 400 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:29,399 Speaker 1: I'm in bed at nine or ten. I can't even 401 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 1: watch the end of the Yankee game. What would I 402 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 1: do if I lived in Spain A plan? Imagine staying 403 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 1: up until ten? I mean, but they do. I mean, 404 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 1: I've been there and it's boy, it's a great lifestyle 405 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 1: for there, no question about it. And we appreciate getting 406 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 1: the on the ground reporting from Maria Today. O. G. L. CEO, 407 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,959 Speaker 1: the Global Commodity Price Index. It's a great screen for 408 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:54,879 Speaker 1: all things commodities. I'm looking at that right now, and 409 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 1: the number that jumps out of me is this Henry 410 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:01,920 Speaker 1: hubb Not gas up a hundred and forty year today. 411 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 1: What is up about that? I know they have an 412 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 1: issue over there in Europe, in Europe, but what's going 413 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 1: on here in States? Mike McLane, he does this commodity 414 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 1: stuff for a living, purportedly from Miami, Florida, which is 415 00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:16,120 Speaker 1: a scam in and of itself for Bloomberg Intelligence. Mike, 416 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 1: what's going on with that gas here? You always start 417 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:20,919 Speaker 1: me out laughing ball, So I'll try to try to 418 00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 1: lead on that. The key thing is, like you mentioned, 419 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 1: so al, a European problem. And then number one thing 420 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:28,640 Speaker 1: to remember about USNADCAST is where the world's largest ellendy 421 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:32,160 Speaker 1: ellengy exporter. But we can't really export more than third 422 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 1: keen percent of our total production. We're still a massive 423 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 1: oversupplied market. Now. It's not showing up in prices up 424 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,359 Speaker 1: a hu this year, but the market's price for pretty 425 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:44,920 Speaker 1: extreme bad winter. It's price for doing everything we can 426 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,120 Speaker 1: to help out Europe. And the big issue is can 427 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 1: Europe get through the winter. And I think we're at 428 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:50,960 Speaker 1: the point now in natural gass is how much worse 429 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,000 Speaker 1: is going to get for prices? So the kee thing 430 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 1: remember about that gas is a price on the screen 431 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,640 Speaker 1: right now. Nine is about three times the US cost 432 00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,720 Speaker 1: of production, and there's an ocean of natural gas once 433 00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:02,159 Speaker 1: they want to do it to bring it on. The 434 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,440 Speaker 1: lesson I've learned as every time prices go up they 435 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,640 Speaker 1: don't last long. The key thing is it's only August, 436 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 1: so typically they peak in January or December. So right now, 437 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 1: which is the question how much we can get through 438 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,879 Speaker 1: this period before that supply comes back? Alright, So but 439 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 1: you think, um, the supply is going to come back 440 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 1: on for us in Europe, it's going to be a 441 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,160 Speaker 1: different story, right, So we're gonna have a real discrepancy 442 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 1: in UH in the contract prices. Yeah, well certainly, I 443 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,479 Speaker 1: don't know how many excess it is now for European 444 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 1: allergy versus U s ban. But one thing that's really 445 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:34,960 Speaker 1: happening is there there pointing in lergy from all over 446 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 1: the world. You know, the highest price wins. So they're 447 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 1: gonna get plenty of nat gas for the winter. I mean, 448 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,359 Speaker 1: getting through this winter will be kind of that simple. 449 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 1: I mean, when I was over there, everybody was talking 450 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 1: about the need to build terminals in order to be 451 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,720 Speaker 1: able to import the l en G. And if you 452 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:52,919 Speaker 1: don't have those terminals built, you can't bring it in, 453 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,159 Speaker 1: no matter how much you're willing to pay. It's definitely 454 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 1: not that simple. But what was happening in the demand instruction, 455 00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 1: We're going to get a complete recession in that continent 456 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 1: We're having. Demand is just going to collapse only because 457 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 1: the prices, and then of course they're trying to cut 458 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 1: back on on the use, and so it's the classic 459 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 1: elast dissy is going to kick in. The question is, 460 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:13,480 Speaker 1: right now, how much higher does it go before it collapses? Um? 461 00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 1: And from a U S standpoint, the key thing to 462 00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 1: remember about most broad indices like the Bloomberg, COMMANI Knicks 463 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 1: and sm P g S I have U S nat 464 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,439 Speaker 1: gass in, which is a global benchmark. So there's a 465 00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:24,959 Speaker 1: bit of a difference. But in Europe you're gonna get 466 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:29,120 Speaker 1: a full complete recession and energy as a key driver. Alright. 467 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: So sticking with the energy play here, w t I 468 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 1: Crude oil eighty seven dollars a barrel, certainly a long 469 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:39,000 Speaker 1: way from that one twenty we were at. Drop dropped 470 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,359 Speaker 1: down to a six month low. What's your I mean 471 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 1: you were pretty bearished. I think the last time we 472 00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 1: really talked w T I crude. You know, maybe it 473 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,879 Speaker 1: hit fifty dollars before it hits one fifty? What are 474 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,680 Speaker 1: you thinking? Still thinking that? But have to admit and 475 00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 1: sometimes you have to take the pain before the game. 476 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 1: I was too early and wrong initially natural gas, I 477 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:57,640 Speaker 1: didn't think you'd get I'm sorry, and crude, I didn't 478 00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,120 Speaker 1: think you can get this high. But there's a key 479 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:03,119 Speaker 1: lesson in Crewe oil. It spiked at the highest velocity 480 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,560 Speaker 1: ever on a hundred week moving average basis. It's very 481 00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,280 Speaker 1: some of their golf, and it's probably going to do 482 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 1: the same where it's going to make a high that 483 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,480 Speaker 1: will might last for fourteen years like it did last 484 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 1: time and drop. So I see crudel first stop is 485 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 1: really getting back to seventy five, which is changed on 486 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 1: the that's just simply following copper and cotton and cotton 487 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,439 Speaker 1: and wheat and things like that. But the key thing 488 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 1: is what happens after that. I think it's unlikely stags 489 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,440 Speaker 1: above one. What does that mean? Global recession? Seventy five 490 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,439 Speaker 1: normal reversion. But if you really go back to the 491 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,880 Speaker 1: average prices two thousand fourteen where it's when it really collapsed, 492 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 1: it's around fifty bucks. I gotta ask you about stable coins. 493 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,200 Speaker 1: Something we talked about a lot, and that the most 494 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:47,159 Speaker 1: traded cryptocurrencies is UM. You often remind us there is 495 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 1: a lot of talk about legislation that's going to force UM, 496 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 1: operators of Tether and USDC and other stable coins to 497 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 1: actually show what they're what they're holding to back up 498 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:06,639 Speaker 1: these one to one U s dollar stable coins. Do 499 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 1: you think they can do that? I mean does is 500 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 1: there enough actual collateral to back up Tether? Oh? Yeah? 501 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,680 Speaker 1: Well Tether has been controversial, but the key thing remember 502 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:20,439 Speaker 1: tether to day right now it's six and seven billion dollars, 503 00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,000 Speaker 1: So you think the people that tether have sixty seven 504 00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 1: billion dollars in like bearer bonds. I need to point 505 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,639 Speaker 1: out the facts about tether, Matt. The lesson I've learned 506 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,440 Speaker 1: is every time think people push back on it, it 507 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:33,480 Speaker 1: keeps going higher in market. Captain, though it's peaked a 508 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 1: little bit, but USDC is pretty solid. The key thing 509 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,200 Speaker 1: is the New York Attorney General came down in Tether 510 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 1: and they do have to file quarterly reports and they've 511 00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,639 Speaker 1: had to for a well to be audited. So the 512 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,800 Speaker 1: key thing is also we remember why is Tether on 513 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,200 Speaker 1: the top despite the fact I've been hearing the same 514 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 1: thing for almost five years, but we still haven't seen 515 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 1: real transparency. Though it's revolutionary technology does something the whole 516 00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,640 Speaker 1: world wants, it gives well. The key thing is people 517 00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 1: keep saying that, but if the hiding anything, that money 518 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,320 Speaker 1: is going to U S d C. And it's then 519 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:05,960 Speaker 1: going to a dozen other Tether wannabes. And that's the 520 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,960 Speaker 1: key point is tokenization of assets is unstoppable. The dollars 521 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,480 Speaker 1: number one, what's next? Maybe treasuries, stock, It's just the 522 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 1: better technology. I just feel like, you know, money markets, 523 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 1: they have to show you what they're holding, right, I 524 00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:24,680 Speaker 1: would love to know exactly what they're holding, and it's 525 00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,680 Speaker 1: gonna probably get The key point I like to point 526 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:30,520 Speaker 1: out about Tether is despite all these discrepancies and issues, 527 00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 1: it's still winning on the global stage. The point is 528 00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:36,199 Speaker 1: because the technology is overwhelming for people to get access 529 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:39,440 Speaker 1: to the book. Most Americans who are used to kind 530 00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 1: of you know, for Americans our currencies like water is 531 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:44,879 Speaker 1: to a fish, but not for the rest of the world. 532 00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,200 Speaker 1: I think of China that yuan looks like it's ready 533 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:50,760 Speaker 1: to collapse. Yields in to your yields in China collapsing 534 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,440 Speaker 1: versus US two yields. All right, Mike, awesome stuff as 535 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,720 Speaker 1: always a lot of it. I don't understand, but I 536 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 1: know Matt though, So that's all we need here. Mike mclogan, 537 00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,960 Speaker 1: senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg and Intelligence. He used to 538 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 1: do orange juice and pork bellis, now he does bitcoin. 539 00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,639 Speaker 1: We've been parching through a lot of retail sales data 540 00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 1: this week, including today's macro data. We also had lots 541 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 1: of the big box retailers reporting some numbers, generally some 542 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 1: pretty good outlooks onto the consumer that goes to the 543 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:25,119 Speaker 1: labor market, which has been pretty pretty solid with record 544 00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:29,000 Speaker 1: low unemployment, wage growth a little bit north of five percent. 545 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,120 Speaker 1: Let's dig deep into the details of this labor market. 546 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 1: We can do that today with Ian Segel. He's a 547 00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 1: CEO and co founder of zip Recruiter New York stock 548 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,880 Speaker 1: exchange stock z I P as a ticker. You can 549 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,879 Speaker 1: enter into your Bloomberg Professional terminal to get all the 550 00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,119 Speaker 1: stuff you need there. Ian, thanks so much for joining 551 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 1: us here. I love from your perspective. You kind of 552 00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:52,040 Speaker 1: see the big picture here. The labor market looks darn good. 553 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:54,960 Speaker 1: What are your thoughts as to how this might develop 554 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:59,639 Speaker 1: going forward? Yeah, well, we certainly had a labor market 555 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:01,919 Speaker 1: at call of me that was barreling along all the 556 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:03,919 Speaker 1: way through Q two. It's a big part of the 557 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,240 Speaker 1: reason why the recruiter was able to beat them both 558 00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 1: top and bottom line. Again, however, when you look at 559 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:12,639 Speaker 1: the last two weeks of the quarter, you saw the 560 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:15,080 Speaker 1: beginning for the first time and basically a year and 561 00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 1: a half of a reduction in the number of open jobs. 562 00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 1: And when you ask yourself, why is that happening, Well, 563 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,480 Speaker 1: look at the unemployment number. Suddenly we're down to three 564 00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,360 Speaker 1: and a half percent unemployment. The twenty million people who 565 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 1: lost their jobs during COVID have all managed to find 566 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,600 Speaker 1: work or they've left the workforce, And so you find 567 00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 1: the employers find themselves in a situation where for every 568 00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 1: open job that was posted, um, there was basically less 569 00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,440 Speaker 1: than a candidate available who was actively looking for work. 570 00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:44,680 Speaker 1: And so employers are now adjusting and they're changing their 571 00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:48,200 Speaker 1: strategy and rather than continuing to fruitlessly recruit, they're trying 572 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,320 Speaker 1: to figure out how to do more with what they have. 573 00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 1: And what that means for the labor market is there's 574 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:55,720 Speaker 1: going to be less open jobs, so that for the 575 00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 1: jobs that are open, there's going to be increased competition 576 00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:03,640 Speaker 1: going forward. Well, and especially in tech, right, I mean, um, 577 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:07,400 Speaker 1: it seems to me just from reading the stories every day, 578 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,320 Speaker 1: that tech is having a much bigger problem than everybody 579 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:14,000 Speaker 1: else in terms of headcount that's too high. You're seeing 580 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:19,440 Speaker 1: reductions or at least hiring freezes on the West Coast 581 00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:23,000 Speaker 1: that you aren't seeing out here. Yeah, I mean, there's 582 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 1: some really interesting headlines that I think potentially are confusing 583 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,600 Speaker 1: the issues somewhat of who's slowing down hiring the most. 584 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:34,880 Speaker 1: Because yes, tech has definitely both made headlines with hiring 585 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:39,760 Speaker 1: freezes and even staff reductions, which is novel for tech. However, 586 00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:42,040 Speaker 1: when you look at the overall labor market, what you 587 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,880 Speaker 1: see is that SMBs have slowed down hiring a lot 588 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,840 Speaker 1: faster than enterprises have, and there still is pretty substantial 589 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:52,960 Speaker 1: hiring amongst larger companies and that's that's even reflected in 590 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 1: the Zippercritter numbers. And if you look at Q two 591 00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 1: large businesses, the percentage of our revenue that comes from 592 00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,760 Speaker 1: these large businesses screw six percent in the quarters. So 593 00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:06,640 Speaker 1: there's still aggressively hiring. But smaller businesses are definitely definitely 594 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 1: starting to scratch their heads and try to figure out 595 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,600 Speaker 1: a new way to deal with the dearth of talent 596 00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 1: that's available for the jobs they had posted, and a 597 00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,840 Speaker 1: lot of them are are actually engaging with their current workforces. 598 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,040 Speaker 1: You're seeing a lot of really novel perks and it's 599 00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:26,720 Speaker 1: everything from more flexible schedules to mental health benefits that previously, um, 600 00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:30,800 Speaker 1: we're unheard of. So you are seeing employers adapt, you 601 00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,560 Speaker 1: are seeing a slowdown in the labor market. But let's 602 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:37,720 Speaker 1: be clear, there's still ten million open jobs in America. 603 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:40,480 Speaker 1: Pre COVID, when we thought we were at peak employment, 604 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,960 Speaker 1: there were six million open jobs. So this is still 605 00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:46,880 Speaker 1: a froththy, frofthy market for job seekers. And my advice 606 00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,920 Speaker 1: to job seekers out there is, look, this is peak 607 00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,120 Speaker 1: leverage for you. This is the moment that if you 608 00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:54,760 Speaker 1: were thinking about changing jobs, trying to get a new 609 00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 1: situation trying to make more money. There will never be 610 00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 1: a better labor market probably in your life. It's time 611 00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:02,880 Speaker 1: to go get a better situation than right now. Where 612 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 1: should be? Where should people search? Yeah, exactly, Well, I 613 00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,959 Speaker 1: definitely think ZIP recruiters the way to go there you 614 00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:16,000 Speaker 1: go transitions. Yeah, well, the the you know, the really 615 00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 1: the big change that's happening in the world of recruiting 616 00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,480 Speaker 1: is if you look at people who have been hired 617 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 1: in two thousand and twenty two, thirty seven percent of 618 00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:30,240 Speaker 1: them were recruited to their current position, and you contrast 619 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:33,680 Speaker 1: that was two years ago, it was only eight So 620 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 1: employers have adapted, they've they've gravitated to tools but allow 621 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,720 Speaker 1: them to proactively reach out to people before they've actually 622 00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,240 Speaker 1: applied to their jobs to try and induce them to apply. 623 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 1: This is one of the key differentiating features of ZIP 624 00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:48,040 Speaker 1: recruder actually, and to put this into a sense of 625 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:52,360 Speaker 1: scale for you, employers invited more than a million candidates 626 00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 1: to directly apply to their jobs. They recruited over a 627 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,080 Speaker 1: million people last quarters, and those are the employers who 628 00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:00,760 Speaker 1: had the most success hiring. So that's a big change 629 00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:03,240 Speaker 1: in the labor market. Employers are going to go first. 630 00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:07,680 Speaker 1: But we do see still some big job cut headlines, 631 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:13,000 Speaker 1: right Google, Um is apparently telling employees this quarters numbers 632 00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:16,000 Speaker 1: better be good, or layoffs are coming. Apple Late laying 633 00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 1: off recruiters, companies, smaller companies like Peloton or hoot suite, 634 00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:25,760 Speaker 1: you know, firing eight or six hundred people UM, Microsoft 635 00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:29,880 Speaker 1: slowing hiring in some groups, Shopify laying off ten percent 636 00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:33,800 Speaker 1: of its workforce, Rivian is cutting its workforce, robin Hood 637 00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:37,360 Speaker 1: reducing head count UM, even Walmart laying off hundreds of 638 00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:41,280 Speaker 1: corporate workers. So this seems to me like it's a 639 00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:46,640 Speaker 1: brewing story. I mean, there's definitely a looming recession. We 640 00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,840 Speaker 1: I there's a lot of discussion about the variety of 641 00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,480 Speaker 1: factors that are impacting the economy, and that definitely has 642 00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:57,040 Speaker 1: a fallover effect into the labor market. But I would 643 00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:00,600 Speaker 1: also say this is a byproduct of the post covid 644 00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 1: UH work reality, which is that the majority of corporate 645 00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:09,600 Speaker 1: jobs that can be done remotely are doing either partial 646 00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:13,880 Speaker 1: or fully remote work. And that's creating a novel challenge 647 00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:17,479 Speaker 1: for the managers of those businesses, because how do you 648 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 1: keep the productivity high when you have such a large workforce. 649 00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:25,320 Speaker 1: It's just human nature that some percentage of your workforce 650 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,160 Speaker 1: is not going to contribute at the same level they 651 00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:29,440 Speaker 1: did previously. And so when you look at the stories 652 00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,000 Speaker 1: about Google and you look at the stories about Apple, 653 00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:35,960 Speaker 1: I mean those in particular are talking about effectively the 654 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,480 Speaker 1: output per employee and they're trying to get their arms 655 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,280 Speaker 1: around it. And I think what you're seeing right now 656 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:45,280 Speaker 1: is a reset where these large companies who aren't getting 657 00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,640 Speaker 1: as much done as they want to, are scratching their 658 00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 1: heads and trying to say, like, how are we going 659 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,640 Speaker 1: to create accountability when people are not face to face 660 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,280 Speaker 1: with each other. And I don't think this is, for 661 00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:58,840 Speaker 1: the record, a widespread problem. There's multiple economists who are 662 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,479 Speaker 1: doing research on it, this guy named Nick bloom Over 663 00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:05,160 Speaker 1: at Stanford. Basically, the on average, employers are getting a 664 00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,360 Speaker 1: half hour more work out of employees because those employees 665 00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:12,080 Speaker 1: are saving seventy minutes a day in commuting and interestingly 666 00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:17,240 Speaker 1: enough grooming, they're giving a half hour more to their employers. However, 667 00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:21,399 Speaker 1: uh there is a cohort of employees who are either 668 00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:24,759 Speaker 1: what's called soft quitting or are dialing it down, and 669 00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:29,200 Speaker 1: probably in the work life balance equation UH over balancing 670 00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:31,719 Speaker 1: to life, and so I think what you're seeing is 671 00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,239 Speaker 1: a logical refract. Work life balance is a term that 672 00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,839 Speaker 1: Paul doesn't recognize exactly. That's not how I was raised. 673 00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,120 Speaker 1: All right, Ian, thank you so much in single CEO 674 00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,480 Speaker 1: and co founder of Zip Recruiter talking to us about 675 00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:49,520 Speaker 1: the labor market today. Still tight from Siegel's perspective. Thanks 676 00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:53,000 Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe 677 00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:56,759 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews of Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast 678 00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:00,359 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at 679 00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,600 Speaker 1: Matt Miller nineteen seventy three and on false Sweeney I'm 680 00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,080 Speaker 1: on Twitter at p T Sweeney. Before the podcast. You 681 00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,520 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.