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Speaker 2: Look, it was the week of the IPO of the
Speaker 2: largest IPO this year, ARM, and it went off pretty successfully,
Speaker 2: shares rallying almost twenty five percent yesterday, but they're down
Speaker 2: about a percent and a half today, so twenty two
Speaker 2: percent higher than the fifty one dollars per share price
Speaker 2: that they set for the IPO. Now. Launching a successful
Speaker 2: IPO was also important for the parent, soft Bank, which
Speaker 2: had bought the company in twenty sixteen for thirty six
Speaker 2: billion dollars but had had flameouts like we were DoorDash. However,
Speaker 2: SoftBank did leave a whole lot of money on the table.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg reporters Ryan gould Amy or Ian King wrote a
Speaker 2: play by play of how the final day wrapped up
Speaker 2: and why it matters. Ryan, I'm pleased to say joins
Speaker 2: us now via zoom Ryan, thanks so much for joining us.
Speaker 2: ARMS ipo was, by your reporting, ten times oversubscribed. I believe.
Speaker 2: How did bankers settle on fifty one dollars a share?
Speaker 3: Jess, thanks for having me. It was quite the week
Speaker 3: it turned out, particularly that final pricing meeting. I mean,
Speaker 3: all being said, I think probably what ended up happening
Speaker 3: was a fairly normal meeting. Bearing in mind obviously as
Speaker 3: we say this was a soft bank. IPO Massa probably
Speaker 3: felt that there was much to sort of write the
Speaker 3: record on, given what had happened with a few of
Speaker 3: the other names you mentioned at the top there. But yeah,
Speaker 3: you know that that Wednesday meeting, that was something that
Speaker 3: you know, there was the case laid out for sort
Speaker 3: of fifty two dollars a share, there was the case
Speaker 3: laid out for fifty one dollars a share, and ultimately
Speaker 3: it was left to to to son Tanessa to decide
Speaker 3: that actually he wanted to play this one safe, play
Speaker 3: it smart so and might argue and leave sort of
Speaker 3: basically one hundred or so million dollars on the table
Speaker 3: by choosing the fifty one a share. That being said,
Speaker 3: you know, fifty one dollars a share was still the
Speaker 3: top of the marketing range. This is something that you know,
Speaker 3: he felt could set the company up for success come yesterday,
Speaker 3: Thatursday it started trading, and you know, as you mentioned,
Speaker 3: we're still up to twenty two percent on from yesterday.
Speaker 3: So I think he's probably looking towards you know, today
Speaker 3: being Friday, at the end of the week for trading,
Speaker 3: you know, they've really they're they're in a good position.
Speaker 3: I know that the arm the armed folks will be
Speaker 3: will be feeling good as well.
Speaker 4: Especially when you were thinking about this year's biggest IPO,
Speaker 4: when we're looking ahead to what this can potentially mean
Speaker 4: for other IPOs coming down the pipeline. It's been so challenging,
Speaker 4: especially over the past year obviously the correlation when you
Speaker 4: think about what was happening with the Fed's most aggressive
Speaker 4: hiking cycle in decades, what is it shaping up like
Speaker 4: do you think moving forward in the near term whenever
Speaker 4: you're speaking with your sources as far as what this
Speaker 4: means for other companies that could potentially go public.
Speaker 3: Now, yeah, I mean, make a mistake, this is this
Speaker 3: is a huge event for the rest of the market.
Speaker 3: I don't think we're in a position just yet where
Speaker 3: we could say, you know, the floodgates will open, but
Speaker 3: certainly through the end of this year, through the end
Speaker 3: of twenty twenty three. We're in a position that now
Speaker 3: you could probably start to see premium assets, you know,
Speaker 3: marketing names coming out and thinking okay, well we'll we're
Speaker 3: going to push push the button. I mean, just to
Speaker 3: name one, you know, birkin Stock, the German footwear maker,
Speaker 3: they are, they filed, they are looking to go probably
Speaker 3: you know, we could see them setting a price range
Speaker 3: later this month. People know Berkinstock, people will know how
Speaker 3: you know, the their heritage, their their brand, and they
Speaker 3: feel confident enough. And I think, you know, seeing arm
Speaker 3: getting up to such a great start yesterday and today
Speaker 3: in trading, it's it's a boon. It's definitely a shot
Speaker 3: in the arm. That being said, not every company is
Speaker 3: going to be able to come out and think, you know,
Speaker 3: this is the time for them. There many sources are
Speaker 3: saying to me and others that you know, twenty twenty four,
Speaker 3: the first quarter of twenty twenty four, as soon as
Speaker 3: you get that sort of full year audited results, and
Speaker 3: probably no later the end of February will give you
Speaker 3: a better chance so you can put audited results in
Speaker 3: front of potential investors. On the virtuo versus the nine
Speaker 3: months that you would only be able to provide as
Speaker 3: of now. That I think should give some investors as well,
Speaker 3: you know, much more comfort to think about. You know,
Speaker 3: Let's see how ARM plays out, Let's see what happens
Speaker 3: to working stock once it starts trading. And obviously I
Speaker 3: haven't mentioned yet Clavier or Instagram right popular trade next week,
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, obviously I would caution and say that,
Speaker 3: you know, ARM is you know, Instacart. It is clearly
Speaker 3: not like on and Clavio is not like Instacart. So
Speaker 3: you know, when you're thinking about these things, it's all
Speaker 3: a little bit relative, and I do think you have
Speaker 3: to be a bit cautious. But there are some good
Speaker 3: signs that in the next week we could be in
Speaker 3: a position where three IPOs in you know, in a
Speaker 3: fortnight could could get off to you know, Aurora.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's not like every soft bank ipo has
Speaker 2: always done extraordinarily well, even you know, if they had
Speaker 2: a bit of a share pop on the first day.
Speaker 2: You know, you have been reporting on Instacurt as well.
Speaker 2: I believe you broke the news that the company was
Speaker 2: raising its price range for its upcoming IPO, which may
Speaker 2: it sounds like price on Monday. What are the big
Speaker 2: questions that you're asking your sources right now around how
Speaker 2: this IPO is going to go.
Speaker 3: Instacart is interesting one, and we you know, we reported
Speaker 3: this morning that they are looking to price Monday, price
Speaker 3: Monday evening, start trading on Tuesday. Much of the question
Speaker 3: in I think around Instacart is not so much around
Speaker 3: the business model. It's more around, you know, as an
Speaker 3: ipa process like this unfolds, how are companies and their
Speaker 3: executives And perhaps in other cases sponsor backer is thinking
Speaker 3: about pricing. Just how aggressive can you be on valuation
Speaker 3: in a very sort of valuation sensitive environment, Just exactly
Speaker 3: how far can you push the boat and not sort
Speaker 3: of scare off investors Because I think when you think
Speaker 3: about going on a road show, you're wanting to say
Speaker 3: you've already identified maybe one hundred or so accounts that
Speaker 3: you absolutely want in your book. I mean, there are
Speaker 3: always going to be instances where your top five, top six,
Speaker 3: maybe one or two of those won't actually agree to
Speaker 3: come in. So I think it's a case of thinking
Speaker 3: about how can we please as many people as possible.
Speaker 3: One of those things is not pushing the valuation too hard.
Speaker 3: It's clearly a sign of strength in Instacart's case that
Speaker 3: they are able to come out this morning with that
Speaker 3: two dollars hike to the range. It was always sort
Speaker 3: of seen as an opportunity even the beginning at the
Speaker 3: road show last week that you know, perhaps it was
Speaker 3: very attractively priced. There was perhaps some little riggle room,
Speaker 3: and clearly they taken advantage of that. But I think
Speaker 3: as a collective sort of set, when we look at
Speaker 3: this IPA window that we're currently in through to the
Speaker 3: sort of Thanksgiving period, the massive question is around how
Speaker 3: far can you push pricing just given how sensitive investors
Speaker 3: are in this higher rates environment. You know, perhaps with
Speaker 3: anticipation of a softer landing into into next year, you know,
Speaker 3: we'll we really don't want to be thinking about scaring
Speaker 3: off investors even further or again from from IPOs right, and.
Speaker 2: I mean especially with a consumer that may fray. I mean,
Speaker 2: isn't that what we've heard all earning season? The consumer
Speaker 2: could fray a little bit here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. I think you know, even even there are
Speaker 3: in Instacrat's case in arms, you know that there was
Speaker 3: there has been significant interest even from retail investors, so
Speaker 3: to speak. And when you think about ARM yesterday was
Speaker 3: one of the sort of most highly tracked stocks. New
Speaker 3: stocks are on Fidelity. I mean people are wanting to
Speaker 3: get in on this as well in regards to you know,
Speaker 3: the actual spending of it. Yeah, Birkinstock has just put
Speaker 3: out of advice filing today with the nine months and
Speaker 3: with nine month results is through September of this year.
Speaker 3: It did not come with a price range. But you know,
Speaker 3: things are looking rosy. I mean it must be said
Speaker 3: that you know things are looking rosy, and you know
Speaker 3: they're hoping to get into a position by the end
Speaker 3: of this month where they could be pricing before pricing
Speaker 3: and trading before Columbus State.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 4: Ryan Gould us IPO reporter at Bloomberg News, joining us
Speaker 4: on zoom from New York City. Always a pleasure getting
Speaker 4: your perspective on all things IPOs and especially with shaping
Speaker 4: up when it comes to Instacart and these others that
Speaker 4: are coming up shortly.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on
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Speaker 4: I don't know about you, but whenever you are in
Speaker 4: a particular checkout online, depending on whichever retailer you're using,
Speaker 4: do you ever abandon your cart? Do you keep thinks?
Speaker 2: I don't abandon it? Okay, I have to say my
Speaker 2: Amazon cart is like enormous to other retail at least
Speaker 2: it stays some other retailers. You know, I put stuff
Speaker 2: in the cart, I don't click out, and then I'm like, wait,
Speaker 2: I spent all this time looking for.
Speaker 4: Some right, and so I do something similar. Especially when
Speaker 4: I'm on Amazon too. There's things that I'm sort of eyeballing,
Speaker 4: but hey, maybe if it drops in price, maybe if
Speaker 4: it's Prime Day or going too the holidays, I'll keep it.
Speaker 4: But there is a company that's trying to remove that
Speaker 4: friction when it comes to retail and it comes to
Speaker 4: that checking out dynamic there. And who better to chat
Speaker 4: with us about this than Madu Kuavilla, CEO of Bolt
Speaker 4: And it's a payments platform in company, and he's going
Speaker 4: to talk to us about how AI can help the
Speaker 4: challenges that are facing the e commerce rule. He's actually
Speaker 4: joining us on Zoom from Seattle. It's great to have
Speaker 4: you back in speaking with us again. For those who
Speaker 4: haven't heard you yet on our program here talk to
Speaker 4: us about what Bolt is and what it does.
Speaker 5: Great to be back here. The problem you just mentioned,
Speaker 5: which is people come to an e commerce site, brows
Speaker 5: around and end up not buying something, and that is
Speaker 5: such a huge problem, Like around ninety eight percent of
Speaker 5: shopers coming to a site does not end up buying something.
Speaker 5: So Bold is simplifying that process and make it efficient
Speaker 5: so more people coming to the site end up buying.
Speaker 2: How many retailers at this point use Bold?
Speaker 5: We have hundreds of retailers using Bolt, and if you
Speaker 5: look at the last year, we historically have been very
Speaker 5: focused on small and medium business and we introduced our
Speaker 5: enterprise product last year, So now we have very large
Speaker 5: enterprise retailers using our product. For example, Revolve they start
Speaker 5: using Bolt last year. I worked closely with their leaders.
Speaker 5: They introduced both and they saw a four percent increase
Speaker 5: on revenue just after turning off Bolt.
Speaker 4: So we know that AI is all the hype right
Speaker 4: now in so many different industries that it touches. What
Speaker 4: is it particularly about AI that you think can be
Speaker 4: used to solve the friction between the issues when it
Speaker 4: comes to shoppers that might be abandoning some of their
Speaker 4: cards and the retailers on the other side that are
Speaker 4: trying to build some of that brand loyalty.
Speaker 5: Yeah, AI, as you can hear from the industry, there's
Speaker 5: a lot of progress happening from a technology perspective, and
Speaker 5: commerce E commerce especially is a great place to get
Speaker 5: a ton of value.
Speaker 6: From the A side.
Speaker 5: First and foremost, you think about if you can recognize
Speaker 5: a shopper the minute they come to your website, and
Speaker 5: if you can recognize them, can you provide a very
Speaker 5: personalized experience for that shopper and make great recommendations? And
Speaker 5: once you decide to buy something, can we make that
Speaker 5: buying process very easy and simple, avoid any kind of
Speaker 5: fraudulent charges, and make that whole process complete. So from
Speaker 5: a bold perspective, what we are looking at is the
Speaker 5: root of making all those things possible is knowing the person, like,
Speaker 5: can we identify the shopper so you can provide all
Speaker 5: this great experience. So what we are focused on both
Speaker 5: is creating this large shopper network that we can track
Speaker 5: the shoppers across different brands, especially the large brands and
Speaker 5: help the brands to identify them so they can provide
Speaker 5: this great personalized experience using the power of AI and
Speaker 5: maintain a lifelong relationship with well.
Speaker 2: I understand you just recently hired a new president new
Speaker 2: CTO and you have some new big tech initiatives for
Speaker 2: e commerce for checkout kind of in the lineup. Can
Speaker 2: you talk to me about what you're trying to do
Speaker 2: that you weren't doing before.
Speaker 5: Yeah. So, as we moved into the large enterprise retailers,
Speaker 5: what we realized is, you know, helping people at the
Speaker 5: checkout is great, but recognizing the shopper throughout their shopping
Speaker 5: journey is so important. So we are looking at the
Speaker 5: identity for e commerce across the board and using that
Speaker 5: identity to power the new capabilities like AI. So as
Speaker 5: we were looking at the new roadmap and technology, it
Speaker 5: was important to bring in like people who have done
Speaker 5: this before and have a ton of experience. So couldn't
Speaker 5: find anyone better than cal Rahman, who drove a lot
Speaker 5: of airly growth that Amazon and Walmart when they were
Speaker 5: trying to get into e commerce, and he is going
Speaker 5: to help us drive our vision forward on building one
Speaker 5: of the largest shopper network for e commerce, and then
Speaker 5: building that identity platform which will power all the AI
Speaker 5: capabilities for the commerce world.
Speaker 4: Whenever you're tracking this, are you able to pull shopping
Speaker 4: behavior in a sense to see how Americans are spending?
Speaker 5: I mean, because we are able to see the actual
Speaker 5: shopping as well as their buying behavior. We are able
Speaker 5: to see a lot of data that allow us to
Speaker 5: see some of the trends and.
Speaker 4: What I'm curious about though, the reason I ask I
Speaker 4: want to know what do you think that tells us
Speaker 4: about the economy? Because so many people talking about the
Speaker 4: consumer and what it means and looking forward and they're
Speaker 4: thinking there's going to be a pullback. Are you actually
Speaker 4: seeing any of that?
Speaker 5: Well, even with all the views on how things can
Speaker 5: go down, what we're seeing is there is a continuous
Speaker 5: improvement on the e commerce side. Like you, there is
Speaker 5: more sales, but the price is increasing. Now the question
Speaker 5: is is a more sale coming from the increase in
Speaker 5: price or is it more people are buying. And when
Speaker 5: we look through the details, what we find is it's
Speaker 5: more sector based or category based. In certain categories people
Speaker 5: are dropping more, while some categories they are seeing less
Speaker 5: than what they saw during the pandemic peak. But one
Speaker 5: thing is very clear is consumers are still focused on
Speaker 5: deals and discounts. So there is a real high focus
Speaker 5: on that, and so the retailers who are able to
Speaker 5: meet understand that consumer behavior and provide them very targeted
Speaker 5: response or deals are seeing obviously a much higher volume
Speaker 5: than others.
Speaker 2: Can I can ask you a little bit about just
Speaker 2: what it's like being a techt startup at a tech
Speaker 2: startup right now, what are you seeing in terms of well,
Speaker 2: it's been a difficult year or two probably what are
Speaker 2: you seeing now? Just give me a lay of the
Speaker 2: land as someone who's had to deal with a tight
Speaker 2: labor market but also potentially had to lay people off
Speaker 2: in the past.
Speaker 5: I mean, it's a little bit about you back to
Speaker 5: the basics on how do you define and find sustainable
Speaker 5: growth and how can you have unit economics when you
Speaker 5: drive that growth, So really focusing on where that growth
Speaker 5: coming from. For example, for both, we found that our
Speaker 5: growth is coming from our new enterprise product helping our brands,
Speaker 5: and we found immediate market success on that product. And
Speaker 5: hence I mentioned about the Revolve case study, clearly demonstrating
Speaker 5: our products are working so we had to prioritize. We
Speaker 5: had to shift our priorities to things that are really
Speaker 5: working and clicking in the market, and then deprioritize the
Speaker 5: things that didn't really yield the results.
Speaker 1: What we thought.
Speaker 5: And then it comes to like having the right people
Speaker 5: and the right talent around YouTube right that vision forward,
Speaker 5: and it all comes at the bottom line is and
Speaker 5: I spend an enormous amount of time to work closely
Speaker 5: with the customers and really understanding what matters to them,
Speaker 5: what are some of the top problems they have, and
Speaker 5: then aligning our product roadmap so we can work closely
Speaker 5: with them and deliver results for them that is what
Speaker 5: they are looking as.
Speaker 4: So we only have about a minute left, But what's
Speaker 4: your view on sort of the future of AI and
Speaker 4: how it impacts this business.
Speaker 5: I mean, there are you know, few two top things
Speaker 5: that a lot of retailers top of mind for retailers,
Speaker 5: one is root turns and one is like omni channel,
Speaker 5: Like a lot of people are buying online and picking
Speaker 5: up at store, and so when I think of AI,
Speaker 5: there are very tactical applications on like if you know
Speaker 5: the consumer, if you know their behavior, how can you
Speaker 5: help reduce some of the return problems, or how can
Speaker 5: you target and your customers better at a very deeper
Speaker 5: level so you can understand how much they are buying online,
Speaker 5: how much they're on a pick from store, and then
Speaker 5: providing them very targeted experience from that. But a common
Speaker 5: component if you look at both of this is knowing
Speaker 5: the consumer. So to do any kind of personalization, you
Speaker 5: got to know the person, and so at both we
Speaker 5: really focused on knowing that person, building a consumer network,
Speaker 5: and then empowering the data to bring some of that
Speaker 5: AI capability for retailers.
Speaker 4: All Right, Madu Curravilla, CEO of payments company Bolt, joining
Speaker 4: us to talk about how AI can help the challenges
Speaker 4: facing the e commerce world. Always a pleasure speaking with you,
Speaker 4: and thank you so much for being back with us.
Speaker 4: But really interesting conversation someone, especially when you think about
Speaker 4: what we were talking about when it comes to us
Speaker 4: leaving some of our favorite items there in our shopping carts.
Speaker 1: Listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio,
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Speaker 1: just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Well, the COVID nineteen pandemic may be over, but unfortunately
Speaker 2: the virus hasn't vanished. Earlier this week, the CDC signed
Speaker 2: off on new vaccines from Maderna and Pfizer Beyond Tech
Speaker 2: for people ages six months in older. Major pharmacies, including
Speaker 2: CBS and Walgreens are already offering appointments for it. Jess,
Speaker 2: you you haven't gotten a vaccine in a while, have you.
Speaker 4: It's been a little bit, but I definitely have gotten
Speaker 4: probably at least four or five when you conclude all
Speaker 4: of the boosters. But I feel like it's time for
Speaker 4: another booster soon as well as a flu shot.
Speaker 2: Well that is the question, and we have doctor Ian
Speaker 2: las Bader, a clinical professor of medicine at NYU Langgone,
Speaker 2: joining us to explain. So, so, doctor, you know, the
Speaker 2: CDC recommended, and I'm quoting here, everyone six months and
Speaker 2: older get an updated COVID nineteen vaccine for the sake
Speaker 2: of hypothetical. Say you're young, healthy and maybe thirty something,
Speaker 2: and you know got some shots, all the shots that
Speaker 2: you needed two three years back. Does this mean you
Speaker 2: have to get another vaccine.
Speaker 6: Now, great question. You know, all of this is coming
Speaker 6: up because we are seeing a sort of a mini
Speaker 6: surgeon increase in the prevalence. You know, really over the
Speaker 6: last six months of COVID, slight increase in hospitalizations, but
Speaker 6: the good news is slightly decrease depths from COVID. So
Speaker 6: to your question, the majority of people in the United States,
Speaker 6: either because they've had COVID, whether they knew it or not,
Speaker 6: and or because they got vaccinated, have the antibodies and
Speaker 6: probably T cells, which really explains why we're seeing perhaps
Speaker 6: really a decreased death rate. So although the CDC did
Speaker 6: advice or did suggest that over six months of age
Speaker 6: would be appropriate, many other countries really are saying they
Speaker 6: should be targeted to specific groups, like over sixty five.
Speaker 6: And as also you're eluding, because we do see some
Speaker 6: side effects, some adverse effects that are not tiny. Perhaps
Speaker 6: the question is should we target the populations And I
Speaker 6: think everyone agrees above sixty five lung disease, pregnant women,
Speaker 6: you know, people who have compromised states. Definitely young healthy
Speaker 6: women such as Simon and Jets or we think healthy
Speaker 6: and certainly young men where we do see an increased
Speaker 6: incidence of myocarditis and some other side effects. They may
Speaker 6: not really need this as a priority. Certainly, again just
Speaker 6: for that older age group, certainly over sixty the RTSV
Speaker 6: vaccine respiratory and social virus very common cause of hospitalization
Speaker 6: and morbidity. The new vaccine recommended flu shot. You know,
Speaker 6: the efficacy varies year to year. Some years they hit
Speaker 6: it right, some years it doesn't work so well. But
Speaker 6: certainly that seems to be safe and reasonably effective. You know,
Speaker 6: a low incidence of side effects. But answer your question directly,
Speaker 6: if you've had COVID or if you've had a vaccine,
Speaker 6: the benefit of this new XBB variant, which was kind
Speaker 6: of the formula that was developed, is really sort of
Speaker 6: an older variant. We've had a lot more variant since then.
Speaker 6: And how well the new vaccine will protect against BA
Speaker 6: two point eighty six and EG five and so forth
Speaker 6: a little unclear. If you're older, definitely you should take it.
Speaker 6: If you're young and healthy, I would read about it,
Speaker 6: think about it, maybe talk to your doctor.
Speaker 4: What about when it comes to the flu shot, Should
Speaker 4: you get both of these at the same time? Do
Speaker 4: you space it out?
Speaker 2: How does it.
Speaker 6: Work right, So all of these things are targeted to
Speaker 6: when we think there's going to be a surge. Typically
Speaker 6: colder weather, people are indoors, no fresh air, you know,
Speaker 6: so ideally if you can get lots of fresh air, exercise,
Speaker 6: you know, some sunshine, plenty of rest, your immune system
Speaker 6: is better. So the timing really is sort of end
Speaker 6: of September, you know now to end of September bedding
Speaker 6: at the beginning of October would be very reasonable to
Speaker 6: get these shots. I would say, FU shot you know
Speaker 6: now for the next month or so would be helpful.
Speaker 6: RSV so far we think is maybe not yearly, but
Speaker 6: like a one time shot maybe next year a booster.
Speaker 6: I would wait a couple of weeks in between. We
Speaker 6: definitely see more side effects if people take two or
Speaker 6: three shots at the same time, much higher risk of problems.
Speaker 6: There's no need to do that. It is a little
Speaker 6: bit more of a time and convenience to come back
Speaker 6: every couple of weeks. But if it were me, I
Speaker 6: would not take them all at once. I would do
Speaker 6: them sequentially.
Speaker 2: Right, and so as getting sick, that's a time inconvenience
Speaker 2: I think certainly, as well as a health inconvenience. Look,
Speaker 2: you know, the emergency, the health emergency that was in
Speaker 2: place for a very long time expired in May. As
Speaker 2: I understand it, is it going to be challenging to
Speaker 2: make sure a large part of the population gets the vaccine,
Speaker 2: you know, under these new post pandemic circumstances.
Speaker 6: I'm seeing in my patients, which is obviously anecdotal, I
Speaker 6: think there is a bit of vaccine hesitancy. I think
Speaker 6: people who've had the vaccine realize they've gotten COVID maybe
Speaker 6: milder and probably less hospitalization, So there's some benefit. And
Speaker 6: I think young people like yourselves, you know, raise the
Speaker 6: question do I really need it? There's definitely some vaccine hesitancy.
Speaker 6: But patients who have underlying lung disease, diabetes, overweight or elderly,
Speaker 6: or if they're traveling many people are traveling in Europe,
Speaker 6: you know, trapped on a plane with three hundred people,
Speaker 6: you know, there probably is some benefit to a couple
Speaker 6: of weeks before you travel to do that. You do
Speaker 6: get a bump in antibodies, which is good. Those do
Speaker 6: wane over a few months, so you know, maybe by
Speaker 6: January or December, those antibodies may be lower, So there's
Speaker 6: definitely some protection. I don't think we can say yet
Speaker 6: how much, but I think if you've had COVID or
Speaker 6: had prior vaccines, your risk of dying from COVID again
Speaker 6: if you're otherwise healthy, is pretty low.
Speaker 4: We have about a minute left. I'm curious because I've
Speaker 4: had a number just kind of anecdotally where people have
Speaker 4: been traveling overseas that have obviously been starting to get
Speaker 4: COVID more often. What's your sort of take as we
Speaker 4: head closer to the holidays, in the traveling season for
Speaker 4: the holidays, as well as far as what variants are
Speaker 4: out there at this point.
Speaker 6: Well, there are many variants. Some of these have like
Speaker 6: thirty amino astra changes that are probably fifteen or two
Speaker 6: any different COVID variants. And that's the problem with a
Speaker 6: vaccine that's a monovalent like it can probably help, but
Speaker 6: it's certainly not going to target these. I talk to
Speaker 6: people about Packslavid, which is a pill. Again, you have
Speaker 6: to talk to your doctor, depends what medications you're on.
Speaker 6: The them have to be stopped like Statn's, but pax
Speaker 6: Slavid is great if you get COVID if it's more
Speaker 6: than a mild case. It's great. There are some doctors,
Speaker 6: not officially who give patients who travel PACKSLAVID so that
Speaker 6: if they do get sick, they may have it if
Speaker 6: they're traveling abroad and otherwise can't get it if they
Speaker 6: test and turn positive.
Speaker 4: We only have about twenty seconds left. But what's the
Speaker 4: top question that you hear from people who are still,
Speaker 4: you know, hesitant at this point.
Speaker 6: You know, I think they ask good questions, Doctor, do
Speaker 6: I need this vaccine? Isn't going to make a difference.
Speaker 6: I've had COVID, I've been vaccinated, and I say it's
Speaker 6: a difficult decision. There are some adverse effects non a
Speaker 6: lot if you're in a risk group.
Speaker 4: And talk to you all right, Doctor Ian las Vader,
Speaker 4: clinical professor at Benson at n y U Lingo and
Speaker 4: joining us. What's more coming up?
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Um Brother Marco a journal.
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Speaker 4: Bloomberg Radio Jessminton and Sophone's Moan Rather Fox would hear
Speaker 4: the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio on this Friday. We have
Speaker 4: just under twenty minutes to go before the closing bell.
Speaker 4: But still when you look on a weekly basis, S
Speaker 4: and P five hundred, trying to potentially keep those gains,
Speaker 4: but it's just marginally lower for the week. But to
Speaker 4: break down everything that we saw this week, who better
Speaker 4: to bring in than Jj Kinahan, chief executive Officer at
Speaker 4: IG North America, joining us on Zoom from Chicago. I've
Speaker 4: known you a long time, Jj, and getting your perspective
Speaker 4: on the markets, all things when it comes to macro,
Speaker 4: especially with the economy and sort of the trickiness of
Speaker 4: investing right now is amidst a lot of this resilient
Speaker 4: economic data. I want to start off first because we've
Speaker 4: been focused so much, especially today on this UAW with
Speaker 4: this unprecedented strike. When you are looking at the big
Speaker 4: three automakers with four GM and stillantes, what's your take
Speaker 4: for more of a market perspective and what this could
Speaker 4: potentially mean when you are looking at these stocks.
Speaker 7: Well, great to be here and you know it's really
Speaker 7: interesting what you start off with, and that is you're
Speaker 7: seeing some of the conundrum that investors are going through
Speaker 7: right now. If I said to you that the big
Speaker 7: three automakers are going on strike and they're not really
Speaker 7: sure where the strikes will take place, and it's going
Speaker 7: to be very confusing, you would think, my god, those
Speaker 7: about to get nailed. And instead of what do you
Speaker 7: see on a day where the overall market is getting
Speaker 7: absolutely crushed. You see GM hire by over thirty cents.
Speaker 7: You see Ford break even too, up a couple of cents.
Speaker 7: So from that point of view as an investor, it
Speaker 7: makes it very difficult as you're thinking about, okay, where
Speaker 7: should I be, Where should I put my money? So
Speaker 7: we continue to see these mixed messages in the market.
Speaker 7: This is a little bit of an ugly way to
Speaker 7: end the week, to be honest with you. As you
Speaker 7: just mentioned the S and P giving up the gains
Speaker 7: for the week, you also have crude oil with its
Speaker 7: highest clothes we've seen so far this year. I think
Speaker 7: that's one of the most significant things we'll see in
Speaker 7: terms of inflation. And we see you know, yields closing
Speaker 7: their highest so far this month, so that doesn't create
Speaker 7: a great picture. And there's one more thing I'm going
Speaker 7: to throw in there that starts to give me a
Speaker 7: little bit more a note of caution. And it has
Speaker 7: been the incredible strength of the dollar as we're going
Speaker 7: to head into earning season soon, and I really think
Speaker 7: that's going to start to affect sales at some point
Speaker 7: here as some of the foreign sales, particularly in the
Speaker 7: tech sector, you know, the Magnificent seven, Elite eight, whichever
Speaker 7: of those stocks you want to call it, may have
Speaker 7: a little bit more trouble with their go forward sales.
Speaker 2: Let me pull you back a little bit to this
Speaker 2: UAW strike, I believe so there was a calculation out
Speaker 2: there by Anderson Economic Group that ten days of a
Speaker 2: strike and it's unclear whether they meant that the actual
Speaker 2: factories that the strike's happening at or not exactly would
Speaker 2: hit US GDP by five point six billion dollars. Now
Speaker 2: that's a big number, but it's not an enormous number.
Speaker 2: If we start seeing this last for you know, a week,
Speaker 2: ten days, two weeks, where are you looking for pockets
Speaker 2: of weakness?
Speaker 7: Well, I would say that pockets of weakness will be
Speaker 7: a bit everywhere, and I think it'll affect the overall market.
Speaker 7: And the reason I will say that is because you
Speaker 7: also have some other strikes going on at the same time,
Speaker 7: some strikes being threatened, so you see that sort of
Speaker 7: slow down start to happen at the same time as
Speaker 7: you're happening. It does as I mentioned, you know, the
Speaker 7: price of gasoline is going to hit people directly in
Speaker 7: their pocket books. And don't forget this also puts more
Speaker 7: pressure perhaps on some railroads and trucking, which again is
Speaker 7: there some slow down there. You know, the auto workers
Speaker 7: are such a big and powerful union that we've already
Speaker 7: heard from some of the Teamsters unions that they are
Speaker 7: going to, you know, in protests slow down or not
Speaker 7: work as hard. Don't forget that's the people who are
Speaker 7: driving those trucks, loading those trucks, loading those trains. So
Speaker 7: I actually think if this lasts for any period of time,
Speaker 7: the effect may be bigger. And that's truly what I
Speaker 7: overall worry about is that the entire transportation sector gets affected,
Speaker 7: which drives the cost of goods. And you know, we
Speaker 7: just lived through this whole supply chain shortness, which it
Speaker 7: feels like we've come out of over the last few months.
Speaker 7: Does this lead us back to that situation.
Speaker 4: You brought up the US dollar in what that could
Speaker 4: potentially mean for earnings when you're looking at the d
Speaker 4: x Y. I know the one oh three level was
Speaker 4: very key for a number of traders even coming into September,
Speaker 4: and obviously that level has been breached. Right now it's
Speaker 4: trading around one oh five. What levels are you watching
Speaker 4: for resistance and support as far as what that could
Speaker 4: mean in the dynamic for the US docs.
Speaker 7: Well, old resistance becomes support, so that you know that
Speaker 7: one O three level now becomes the support so to speak.
Speaker 7: But the one O six just under like the one
Speaker 7: one oh five, you know, eighty five to one o
Speaker 7: six in that area will be an area that you
Speaker 7: need to watch if we can break through that. I
Speaker 7: actually think that it's going to be a major effect,
Speaker 7: if you will, on earnings if it lasts for any
Speaker 7: amount of time, because we've seen this incredible move this
Speaker 7: pound euro over the last few weeks and it really
Speaker 7: is amazing. One other level I will bring up, if
Speaker 7: you don't mind relating everything back to the S and
Speaker 7: P five hundred and what we see there is this
Speaker 7: forty four forty four sixty level. I'm sorry, we're trading
Speaker 7: about forty four to fifty at the moment on the
Speaker 7: S and P five hundred cash those who are bullets,
Speaker 7: you'd really like to see us close back above that.
Speaker 7: And so this last you know, fifteen minutes or so
Speaker 7: of the trading day becomes so interesting because don't forget,
Speaker 7: it's also triple witching day. Triple witching. You will often
Speaker 7: see on the close, you know, more pronounced moves, if
Speaker 7: you will, And those last ten minutes or so today,
Speaker 7: given that we've seen grape vinds, we've seen huge moves,
Speaker 7: would not surprise me to see us have a very
Speaker 7: big move on the.
Speaker 4: Close when you say forty four to sixty. What's the
Speaker 4: significance for that particular levels?
Speaker 7: If yeah, if you go back through, if you go
Speaker 7: back through to August, that was one of the levels
Speaker 7: that we really had a lot of trouble going back
Speaker 7: and forth, and so it becomes one of our biggest
Speaker 7: levels for support right now.
Speaker 2: I want to ask as well about one of the
Speaker 2: big headlines in the last day or so, the possibility
Speaker 2: that Disney could sell off some of its ABC assets.
Speaker 2: Does this mean anything more broadly in the market, and
Speaker 2: you know, do you think it'll happen? Sorry, we only
Speaker 2: have about a minute here.
Speaker 7: Do I think will happen? You know, it certainly seems
Speaker 7: to be a will that it does happen. There's a
Speaker 7: lot to be considered as to where it goes because
Speaker 7: you know, again ABC and some of the broadcasting of games,
Speaker 7: et cetera. I actually think one of the true values
Speaker 7: of ESPN, and so we'll see what happens there. Does
Speaker 7: it mean much for the overall market? What I really
Speaker 7: think it may mean is the next area you start
Speaker 7: to look at is so many of these streaming services
Speaker 7: because now streaming, particularly if you're a sports fan, has
Speaker 7: become so expensive because you know, you look at Major
Speaker 7: League Baseball, you might have the same team playing in
Speaker 7: five different places. Is over the season that gets really
Speaker 7: expensive for people.
Speaker 4: We only have ten seconds left. But if you could
Speaker 4: ask pow a question next week, what would it be?
Speaker 7: What does he actually see the rates being one year
Speaker 7: from now? I don't think it actually matters so much
Speaker 7: over the next few months, right, what's the longer term?
Speaker 6: Perspip?
Speaker 2: Thank so much.
Speaker 4: JJ Kinahan, Chief executive Officer at IG North America.
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