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Speaker 1: Good morning. It's Tuesday, the twelfth of December here in London.

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Speaker 1: This is the BlueBag dayba Q A podcast. I'm Caroline Hepka.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, Tory rebels say

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Speaker 2: Sunak's Ruanda plan needs significant changes ahead of today's make

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Speaker 2: or break vote.

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Speaker 1: Cott negotiators look for a deal on fossil fuels as

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Speaker 1: the end of the Climate Summit nears.

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Speaker 2: And an epic victory the maker of Fortnite wins its

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Speaker 2: monopoly case against Alphabet's Google Play Store.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: MP's vote on the government's Rwanda bill later, in a

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Speaker 2: key test for Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister is trying

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Speaker 2: to win over rebels like Mark Francois from the right

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Speaker 2: wing European Research Group, who thinks the PM's deportation plan

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Speaker 2: needs to be tougher.

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Speaker 3: We all want to stop the boats.

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Speaker 2: There have been two legislative attempts at this already, the.

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Speaker 3: Nationalities and Borders Act that didn't quite work, the Illegal

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Speaker 3: Immigration Act that didn't quite work. So this is kind

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Speaker 3: of free strikes. You're out, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Francevois needs twenty nine Conservatives to vote against the bill

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Speaker 2: to wreck the government's majority. The delay in Westminster cast

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Speaker 2: doubt over the Prime Minister's pledge to reduce a legal

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Speaker 2: immigration well.

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Speaker 1: The Prime Minister also apologized for actions taken during the pandemic.

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Speaker 1: Here is was she soa speaking to the COVID inquiry.

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Speaker 4: Just wanted to start by saying how deeply sorry I

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Speaker 4: am to all of those who lost loved ones, family

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Speaker 4: members through the pandemic and also all those who suffered

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Speaker 4: in the various different ways throughout the pandemic and as

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Speaker 4: a result of the actions were taken.

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Speaker 1: However, the then Chancellor defended his signature eat out to

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Speaker 1: help out scheme after it emerged that government scientists hadn't

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Speaker 1: been consulted on it at the time. Sun argued it

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Speaker 1: was quote long standing practice not to discuss economic or

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Speaker 1: fiscal events with health.

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Speaker 2: Official talks are ongoing to secure an oil and gascot agreement.

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Speaker 2: On the final day of the COP twenty eight Climate

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Speaker 2: summit in Dubai. A draft deal calls on contries to

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Speaker 2: reduce their consumption and production of fossil fuels, but for

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Speaker 2: many nations it doesn't go nearly far enough and falls

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Speaker 2: short of a complete phase out. CO chair at the

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Speaker 2: Voluntary Carbon Market's Integrity Initiative, Rachel Kite says the summit

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Speaker 2: is a bit of a mixed bag.

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Speaker 5: At the end of the day, what delegates were talking

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Speaker 5: about was a report that they have all authored that

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Speaker 5: said that we are not on track, and the text

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Speaker 5: before delegates right now does not put us back on track.

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Speaker 5: And I think that therein is the problem. That we've

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Speaker 5: made progress, but I think until we're closer to being

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Speaker 5: on track to really wrestle with global heating, I don't

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Speaker 5: think we could call it a success.

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Speaker 2: Rachel Kite says the only solution to climate change is

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Speaker 2: the rapid phase out of emissions. The clash over fossil

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Speaker 2: fuels has done dominated the fortnight of talks after countries

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Speaker 2: failed to reach an agreement at last year's Cup twenty

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Speaker 2: seven in Egypt.

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Speaker 1: Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party says that it will study

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Speaker 1: a funding package offered by the UK government aimed at

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Speaker 1: restoring the power sharing administration at Stormont. The offer includes

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Speaker 1: funding for public sector pay and a stabilization fund to

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Speaker 1: provide additional cash over four years as the region grapples

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Speaker 1: with a budget shortfall, but despite saying that it will

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Speaker 1: examine the package, the DUP has suggested it won't be

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Speaker 1: enough to bring it back into the Power Sharing Executive

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Speaker 1: almost two years after it withdrew.

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Speaker 2: Alphabet has last illegal battle with a video game developer,

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Speaker 2: Epic Games. A federal jury in San Francisco decided that

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Speaker 2: the company's mobile app store has a monopoly over the

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Speaker 2: distribution of programs and payments on its Android software. A

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Speaker 2: US district judge will they decide whether the Google parent

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Speaker 2: must allow payment and app distribution methods outside its own

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Speaker 2: app store. Epic Games last a similar case with Apple

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Speaker 2: two years ago, and Alphabet says it plans to challenge

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Speaker 2: the verdict.

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Speaker 1: The rapid rise in rental prices across London could soon

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Speaker 1: be coming to an end. According to one new report.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's tewa Adebayo has the details.

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Speaker 6: Tenants in the capitol could be in line for some

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Speaker 6: relief in the coming months. According to a report by

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Speaker 6: Property Portal ZUPLA, the average annual rent rise in the

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Speaker 6: city for newly let homes will grow by just two

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Speaker 6: percent by the end of next year. Meanwhile, the average

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Speaker 6: hike across the UK is also set to drop to

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Speaker 6: five percent over the same period. Renters have been squeezed

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Speaker 6: on two fronts in recent years, as landlords deal with

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Speaker 6: successive rate hikes by selling up or asking for higher fees,

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Speaker 6: but cooling wage growth and a weakening labor market is

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Speaker 6: starting to put the brakes on what tenants can afford

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Speaker 6: in London. Tiwa Adebio, Bloomberg Radio, Well, I think.

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Speaker 2: It's comes as Goldman Tax ended a recommendation to short

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Speaker 2: UK real estate stocks this week, saying the housing market

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Speaker 2: is stabilizing and interest rates should start to come down

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Speaker 2: from next summer. Now, in a moment, we'll bring you

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Speaker 2: more details on what's meant to be the concluding day

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Speaker 2: of the COP twenty eight Climate conference. But first award

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Speaker 2: on today's Bloomberg editorial, the headline Britain's taxes aren't just high,

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Speaker 2: They're complicated, The editorial board arguing that Britain's tax system

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Speaker 2: is in especially bad shape and it ranks poorly compared

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Speaker 2: to peer countries in terms of competitiveness, describing as a

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Speaker 2: dizzying convolution, which I think if you've completed a tax

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Speaker 2: return recently in the UK you will understand why they

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Speaker 2: might be making that argument as well, but it's the

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Speaker 2: constant changes to the tax system. The piece counts one

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Speaker 2: six hundred and fifty one changes to the tax system

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Speaker 2: in the decade twenty twenty one, the majority of them

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Speaker 2: being increases, and things like the complexity of the VAT system,

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Speaker 2: the comply bread and where it lies. How that has

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Speaker 2: an effect on the broader economy. And it's not an

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Speaker 2: argument for tax cuts, it's an argument for a more

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Speaker 2: efficient tax system that allows space for investment and growth.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Look, I can hear almost the voice of Dan Needle,

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Speaker 1: who's perhaps one of the best known tax voices in

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Speaker 1: the UK on this issue, sort of agreeing fervently. You know,

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Speaker 1: he's very much somebody who's been championing simplicity. I think

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Speaker 1: the issue, though, that this editorial piece makes very well

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Speaker 1: is that actually that's unlikely to happen. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: love the fact that they've put the data in there.

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Speaker 1: So many changes, more than a thousand of them in

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Speaker 1: a decade is just staggering. But the issue that as

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Speaker 1: we go into a general election, there'll be so much

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Speaker 1: pressure on the government and on the opposition leader to

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Speaker 1: come up with tax cuts, you know, rather than focusing

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Speaker 1: actually on how the system works and the sorts of

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Speaker 1: incentives it encourages.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, well, let's stay with politics here in the UK

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Speaker 2: MP's voting on Ritchie Sinac's flagship immigration policy later today,

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Speaker 2: and there's a serious chance the Prime Minister could lose.

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Speaker 2: Tax's own backbencher spent Monday debating the bill, with some

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Speaker 2: on the right arguing it doesn't go far enough. Joining

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Speaker 2: us now is our UK politics producer and reporter James Wilcock, James,

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Speaker 2: good morning to you. What is the scale of the

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Speaker 2: rebellion that Richie Sinac faces today?

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Speaker 3: I mean the scale Stephen is listening to your billtin today.

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Speaker 3: It is rare that a prime minister says sorry, it

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Speaker 3: is rarer, but that potentially that a prime minister would

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Speaker 3: lose a vote with a fifty six seat majority, and

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Speaker 3: yet that is the concept we are looking at today.

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Speaker 3: The right wing groups who have looked at this, who

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Speaker 3: are got their lawyers to look at if this is

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Speaker 3: hard line enough on immigration, say this Rwanda bill still

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Speaker 3: leaves a route to appeal, so they argue that the

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Speaker 3: courts could get clogged up with people trying to argue

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Speaker 3: claims and therefore it doesn't stop the votes, which is

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Speaker 3: Richie s Nak's big flagship pledge, and so the Telegraph

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Speaker 3: reporters overnight that forty MPs could either vote against or

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Speaker 3: abstain with a fifty six majority. Forty mpiece of stating

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Speaker 3: would be fine. Forty voting against because that's what puts

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Speaker 3: numbers on the other side of the argument would like

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Speaker 3: wreck this bill. And so the scale here is if

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Speaker 3: he loses this kind of vote, it is very hard

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Speaker 3: to find parallels because in Parliament there are two votes.

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Speaker 3: This is the first. The second would then be making

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Speaker 3: it law. The first vote is almost a vote on

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Speaker 3: principle on do we agree with the general terms of

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Speaker 3: this bill. To lose that would be pretty unprecedented and

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Speaker 3: would completely nuke Richi, unax authority in the party and

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Speaker 3: so on that level. This is the biggest legistive challenge

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Speaker 3: Richisac has faced in Parliament his premiership. It is easy

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Speaker 3: to say.

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Speaker 1: That, okay, so if the bill passes, does that mean

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Speaker 1: all as well as in the Conservative Party and on

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Speaker 1: the substance of the bill, you know, does this what

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Speaker 1: does it do in terms of addressing immigration, which is

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Speaker 1: one of the pledges that the Prime Minister has made in.

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Speaker 3: Terms of addressing immigration. Nothing will be solved today. Even

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Speaker 3: if this bill passes, there is then a third reading,

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Speaker 3: which is where many people want to amend it. And

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Speaker 3: we haven't talked about the moderates at all yet, Caroline,

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Speaker 3: who there are at least one hundred and six of them,

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Speaker 3: and they say, constitutionally this bill is fairy dust. They

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Speaker 3: don't see it as realistic whatsoever. But they say we

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Speaker 3: will compromise with it, but we will not let it

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Speaker 3: be amended any further. Amending it is exactly what everyone

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Speaker 3: from the Lords through to the right wing will be

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Speaker 3: trying to do for the next year, which is why

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Speaker 3: in all that timeframe there will be a general election.

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Speaker 3: So before the next general election, this bill will not

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Speaker 3: have any effect. It's worth saying, like the laws can

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Speaker 3: hold us up for at least twelve months if they

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Speaker 3: so choose, and the rumors are they very much do

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Speaker 3: fundamentally disagree with the constitutional implications. And for the Conservative

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Speaker 3: Party there is no easy way out of this argument.

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Speaker 3: The die is cast legally for as soon act we

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Speaker 3: find out today, if the numbers are in his favor,

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Speaker 3: there is no amendments he can make to this bill

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Speaker 3: at his point, does he have the support and his

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Speaker 3: party to get this over the line. That is the

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Speaker 3: gamble he is taking this.

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Speaker 2: Morning, given this is coming at a difficult time for

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Speaker 2: the Prime Minister as well. He was speaking to the

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Speaker 2: official COVID inquiry yesterday to what are the Prime Minister's

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Speaker 2: options from here.

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Speaker 3: In terms of this bill. What's the way to watch

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Speaker 3: out for to day is if the bill is pulled,

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Speaker 3: that means the government whips have decided there is no hope,

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Speaker 3: and that would be the kind of nuclear option. The

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Speaker 3: other thing Richie could do is go back to the

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Speaker 3: drawing board and look at this all again. He could

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Speaker 3: completely reinvent sort of himself and what his policy platform is.

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Speaker 3: But the other possible, more like the option, is he

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Speaker 3: muddles through. He gets through this vote, he gets through

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Speaker 3: apologizing for the COVID inquiry, he gets through to the

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Speaker 3: next year, and he hopes there is something in the economy,

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Speaker 3: which already he's got his inflation numbers on target. He

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Speaker 3: points to the economic growth targeted and said this is

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Speaker 3: just one issue and there is far more that government does.

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Speaker 3: There's far more progress that's been made on migration, and

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Speaker 3: that this is just a storm in a teacup. That

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Speaker 3: would be the government's argument.

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Speaker 1: Okay, James, thank you so much for being with us.

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Speaker 1: Really good to have you on the program. Are UK

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Speaker 1: politics producer and reporter James Willcock.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's go now to the climate talks. Ind you

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Speaker 2: buy a draft deal at the CUP twenty eighth summit,

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Speaker 2: which is due to wrap up today as calling on

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Speaker 2: countries to cut their consumption and production of fossil fuels,

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Speaker 2: but from any it doesn't go far enough. Joining us

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Speaker 2: now to discuss Bloomberg. Senior climate reporter Akshashrathi. Actually, good

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Speaker 2: morning to you. So what is in this text? How

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Speaker 2: is it being viewed there?

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Speaker 7: Well, this is the second text we've got on what

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Speaker 7: needs to be done to try and address the big

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Speaker 7: gap that exists between what the climate goals are and

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Speaker 7: where we are on greenhouse gas emissions. The major thing

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Speaker 7: that people were hoping would come through this is that

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Speaker 7: all two hundred countries would agree to phasing out fossil fuels,

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Speaker 7: to stopping its hues to be able to meet these goals,

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Speaker 7: and that is what the cop presidency had been gunning

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Speaker 7: for in the first draft. But the second draft is

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Speaker 7: a complete opposite. It does not set any time targets

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Speaker 7: on actually exiting from fossil fuels. It just talks about

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Speaker 7: reducing it. And the problem, the biggest problem is it

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Speaker 7: has a very soft wording around countries could do one

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Speaker 7: of these many things that are needed for climate. So

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Speaker 7: what is happening here in Dubai is that there's a

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Speaker 7: big fight grewing. We know that negotiators were in conversation

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Speaker 7: till up till at least two am last night trying

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Speaker 7: to get a better wording of the text in the

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Speaker 7: next draft, and we don't expect one for many hours.

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Speaker 1: Okay, there is also emphasis on increasing renewable capacity, on

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Speaker 1: energy efficiency. Does that go any way to satisfying the

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Speaker 1: critics that include, for example, the EUSE Climate Commissioner and

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Speaker 1: the US Climate envoyge On Kerry and others who've been

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Speaker 1: very critical at the moment of the language.

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Speaker 7: Indeed, this is the first time if it goes in

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Speaker 7: this shape or form where technologies will be mentioned in

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Speaker 7: a corp agreement, where low carbon hydrogen gets to mention,

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Speaker 7: carbon capture gets to mention, low emissions vehicles get a mention.

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Speaker 7: These are all things we know that we need to

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Speaker 7: do to try and deploy the solutions to cattle emissions.

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Speaker 7: The biggest problem is that all of these options are optional,

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Speaker 7: that these are good things that countries could be doing,

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Speaker 7: and that's why you're getting, essentially, at least from a

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Speaker 7: majority of parties, a unhappiness of where we are today.

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Speaker 7: It's true of the US, it's true of India. It's

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Speaker 7: not the developed countries, but even developing countries. It's true

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Speaker 7: of island nations that are going to think. It's true

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Speaker 7: of European Union, which is pretty rich. So we'll see

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Speaker 7: what the next version will bring through, but right now

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Speaker 7: it's just a menu of items.

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Speaker 2: What about the progress towards the Powers Agreement goals, the

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Speaker 2: one and a half degrees limiting temperature rise. Is that

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Speaker 2: seen as more feasible after this comp feasible at all?

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Speaker 7: Well, that has been as the COP President Sultan Algebra

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Speaker 7: keep saying, his not star. That's the thing that he

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Speaker 7: wants to ensure happens. But we had an analysis from

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Speaker 7: the International Energy Agency that said, unless you do get

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Speaker 7: a phase out of fossil fuelds, we only get to

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Speaker 7: about a third of the way to those goals. If

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Speaker 7: you need to bridge the gap, the two thirds gap.

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Speaker 7: You do need a pretty strong language around phasing out

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Speaker 7: fossil fuelds, and that is what the legacy of this

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Speaker 7: coup will be judged on, whether they may progress on

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Speaker 7: one point five degree celsius or as the island nations

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Speaker 7: are saying, if this draft goes through, then this is

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Speaker 7: the cop that kills.

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Speaker 1: One point five Saudi Arabian other oil exporting countries have opposed,

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Speaker 1: you know, the idea of phasing out fossil fuels completely.

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Speaker 1: How does the COP twenty eight President Sultan Algebet emerged

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Speaker 1: from all of this? You think, I mean he is

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Speaker 1: still a pivotal figure, isn't he and ushering through this deal.

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Speaker 7: Indeed, indeed, fossil fuel producers will oppose this deal. They

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Speaker 7: have been the biggest blockers of climate progress. I mean,

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Speaker 7: Turkeys don't vote for Christmas, so it's not a surprise.

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Speaker 7: The thing that people were hoping is Sultan algebra As

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Speaker 7: the chief executive officer of Abu Dhabi National Company, and

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Speaker 7: of course COP president would be the person to convince

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Speaker 7: fossil fuel producers that it's in their interest to go

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Speaker 7: along with a global majority. Otherwise you open this up

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Speaker 7: to breaking up the multilateral system that has so far,

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Speaker 7: at least on climate worked, and that is what he

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Speaker 7: has been pinning the hopes for at COP twenty eight

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Speaker 7: on a phase out of fossil fuels, on a strong

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Speaker 7: language around fossil fuels. So now it's really crunch time.

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Speaker 7: I mean, we're likely to go into extra time. Now

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Speaker 7: today is supposed to be officially the last most of

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Speaker 7: the time COP meetings do go into extra time. But

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Speaker 7: how much more extra time and whether that will result

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Speaker 7: in a legacy that the UAE will be proud of

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Speaker 7: or where other people will just call it another failure.

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