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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Wednesday normally Tuesday, but

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Speaker 2: Wednesday college basketball picks show with me Matt Perrault, and

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Speaker 2: welcome to the madness. We get going tomorrow with sixteen games,

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Speaker 2: Friday with sixteen games, and yes, I know the play

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Speaker 2: in games are happening in Dayton yesterday, two very exciting games.

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Speaker 2: We've got two more games coming up here tonight. We'll

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Speaker 2: get into not really those games all that much, although

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Speaker 2: I do like mind me of Ohio tonight to cover

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Speaker 2: that seven points. I've got four bets for you guys

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Speaker 2: here and one hard rock bet of the day, so

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Speaker 2: technically I'm gonna give you five games here, so kind

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Speaker 2: of get comfortable, buckle up. I'll try to go and

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Speaker 2: give you some decent reasoning for each game as to

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Speaker 2: why I'm betting it. But I don't want this to

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Speaker 2: be a half hour long podcast, so I may go

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Speaker 2: a little bit quicker than normal when it comes to

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Speaker 2: the picks as to why I'm betting what I am betting.

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Speaker 1: But there are.

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Speaker 2: Tons of things to get into just from an overall.

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Speaker 2: If you're someone who likes to bet trends like I do,

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Speaker 2: I think you have to acknowledge that there are some

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Speaker 2: pretty significant trends to jump into. There are some pretty

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Speaker 2: significant things that you want to take a look at

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Speaker 2: for this way. One thing we have to talk about

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Speaker 2: at the top is the fact that all fourteen top

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Speaker 2: four seeds are currently favored by double digits. I'm not

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Speaker 2: betting any of them. Okay, I'm not betting any of them.

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Speaker 2: It is way too crazy to be laying double digits.

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Speaker 2: This could be a record. In nineteen ninety six, we

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Speaker 2: saw the average spread for a top four seed be

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Speaker 2: about eight point seven five, and now we're looking at

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Speaker 2: this thing that's going to be somewhere in the neighborhood

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Speaker 2: more than that, which is kind of crazy. Maybe eighteen

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Speaker 2: nineteen twenty points on average for a top four seed.

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Speaker 2: It's just crazy. Florida is going to be a huge

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Speaker 2: favorite no matter who they play. Michigan already is a

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Speaker 2: monster favorite against Howard. We're just talking about gigantic numbers

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Speaker 2: with Arizona, Duke, Iowa, say, Purdue, Illinois, Houston, Connecticut, Gonzaga.

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Speaker 2: These are all twenty point numbers, just huge, huge numbers. Now,

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Speaker 2: one big trend you're gonna hear a lot of is

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Speaker 2: first game unders in the NCAA tournament, first round unders

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Speaker 2: have been hitting at about fifty five percent, and that's tremendous.

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Speaker 2: I mean that's if you eliminate, if you cut it

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Speaker 2: out and go from one twenty eight totals and higher,

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Speaker 2: it's at about sixty three sixty four percent for a

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Speaker 2: first half under. Sorry, first game under for the first round.

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Speaker 2: So if you are going to bet and over, I

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Speaker 2: would be careful, okay. I mean overs have not have

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Speaker 2: not been profitable. But the books know this, okay. So

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Speaker 2: nothing that we talk about from a trend perspective and

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Speaker 2: people stand on tables and bang their chest and talk about,

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Speaker 2: you know, how they're going to kill the books.

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Speaker 1: Understand the books know this. Okay. They're not stupid.

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Speaker 2: They know they need to get professional money because the

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Speaker 2: public they're going to be betting unders, which is really weird.

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Speaker 2: So they need some over money coming in, and so

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Speaker 2: they'll start to drop the numbers down and artificially squeeze

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Speaker 2: them down maybe a point or two. And a professional

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Speaker 2: might have an algorithm or may have a metric or

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Speaker 2: something they like to go ahead and bet the over.

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Speaker 2: So just be aware as you bet these first round unders.

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Speaker 2: Is be aware that the books are are ready for you.

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Speaker 2: And while we may see unders hit, if you're going

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Speaker 2: to blindly bet thirty two of them, ah, careful, Okay,

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Speaker 2: be careful as to what you're going to do with

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Speaker 2: first first game unders. In the NCAA tournament, first half

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Speaker 2: unders on top of that, have also been extremely profitable

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Speaker 2: games in the one o'clock Eastern time window. Equally, I

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Speaker 2: will bet a ton of first half unders in the

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Speaker 2: one o'clock window on Thursday and Friday. Do we see

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Speaker 2: high scoring games, absolutely, but those games can be sleepy,

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Speaker 2: in particular with teams that have not been to the

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Speaker 2: tournament for either a long time or ever before. They

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Speaker 2: can have a little bit of a tough start offensively,

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Speaker 2: and their games tend to go under. But we're not

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Speaker 2: talking about like way under. It's always right to the buzzer,

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Speaker 2: you know, one or two possessions, almost a coin flip.

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Speaker 2: As we kind of roll with this here. So let's

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Speaker 2: begin breaking down some of these games, and there's a

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Speaker 2: bunch of stuff to get into. There's a bunch of

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Speaker 2: really fun things to talk about. Obviously, because it is

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Speaker 2: INSAA tournaments, I'll have more than just five bets going,

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Speaker 2: but I think it is it is. You know, these

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Speaker 2: are five bets. I like, let's talk about Saint Louis

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Speaker 2: and Georgia. Okay, if you've been watching The Daily Juice,

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Speaker 2: you know how I feel about Slow.

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Speaker 1: I've been huge on Slow.

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Speaker 2: Why because their metrics are incredible, but they did hit

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Speaker 2: a really cold patch. They lost by twenty nine to

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Speaker 2: George Mason. They lost to Dayton in the second round

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Speaker 2: of the A ten tournament. But they have been resting

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Speaker 2: and I think this is exactly what they needed, not

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Speaker 2: to play all the way to their conference tournament final

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Speaker 2: and not have them get showered with praise.

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Speaker 1: Their head coach just got a.

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Speaker 2: New gig, and I think this is going to be

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Speaker 2: an opportunity for Saint Louis where brand name comes into play.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of people who are going to look

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Speaker 2: at Saint Louis and say, ah, you know, you lost

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Speaker 2: two of your last three games. You ran the table,

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Speaker 2: you were twenty four and one, you lost to Stanford,

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Speaker 2: You ripped through your conference tournaments, and now you're taking

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Speaker 2: on real competition and you're going to lose. Kem Pom

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Speaker 2: has this as a two point win for Georgia, but

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Speaker 2: I think from a coaching standpoint, I don't love Mike White,

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Speaker 2: to be quite honest, I like.

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Speaker 1: Mike White, I don't love Mike White.

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Speaker 2: I think Josherts, who just got a brand new deal

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Speaker 2: and he could have left, is a tremendous offensive mind

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Speaker 2: and the numbers bear it out. I mean, Saint Louis's

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Speaker 2: offense is so pretty to watch. Their second in the

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Speaker 2: country in effective field goal percentage, they're second in the country.

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Speaker 2: In three point shooting, they're fifteenth in the country, and

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Speaker 2: two point shooting.

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Speaker 1: They have not shot the ball well recently. Absolutely.

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Speaker 2: However, Georgia, I don't think Georgia is as good as

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Speaker 2: people think. And on top of the fact that their

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Speaker 2: numbers aren't great. Okay, so Georgia is fifteen fifteen and

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Speaker 2: one this year ATS they went nine to one in

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Speaker 2: one in the SEC. However, on the road, Georgia they

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Speaker 2: went eight and six on the road versus fourteen and

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Speaker 2: four at home. They were ten and nine in the SEC,

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Speaker 2: and they played, you know, some decent teams in the

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Speaker 2: non conference, but nothing outstanding in the non conference, and

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Speaker 2: they end up losing to Ole Miss, who I don't

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Speaker 2: think is that good of a basketball team they've lost

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Speaker 2: in the SEC. You know, they were a little bit

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Speaker 2: of run when they lost three games in a row

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Speaker 2: to Texas Tennessee and Texas A and M. Then they

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Speaker 2: lost to Florida in Oklahoma. It was five losses in

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Speaker 2: six games for Georgia when the wheels came off a

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Speaker 2: little bit, and then they kind of rectified here. And

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Speaker 2: since they've only lost two games since that run, you've

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Speaker 2: got a Saint Louis team that they need Robbie Avilia

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Speaker 2: to get.

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Speaker 1: His foot right.

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Speaker 2: He's got planter fasciitis and rest is what heals. That

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Speaker 2: you get an injection, which he got and now he

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Speaker 2: gets to rest and get healthy. And I think he's

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Speaker 2: you know cream Abdul Jabbar, remember him with Indiana State.

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Speaker 2: That's this kid who's playing now for Saint Louis. At

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Speaker 2: six foot ten. He needs to be able to hit

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Speaker 2: shots and step out. But I like Saint Louis here, Okay,

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Speaker 2: I like Saint Louis. I think that they come in

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Speaker 2: and get it done. They're catching two and a half points.

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Speaker 2: I like Saint Louis plus two and a half up

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Speaker 2: against Georgia.

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Speaker 1: Next game.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about BYU a team that I think because

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Speaker 2: of the fact that they've got arguably the best player

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Speaker 2: in the country. This is where in the tournament the

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Speaker 2: lights are the brightest. Guys can make a lot of money.

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Speaker 2: I like teams with elite superstars in the NCAA tournament,

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Speaker 2: and I think Kevin Young is going to finally let

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Speaker 2: this kid go. And I think AJ has a big

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Speaker 2: game here up against Texas. The numbers two and a half.

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Speaker 2: If you're going to see a trend for me here

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Speaker 2: with how I'm betting these games. I'm not touching the

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Speaker 2: big spreads. I like the little spreads. It's easier to handicap,

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Speaker 2: easier to look at this. I don't like Texas. I

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Speaker 2: didn't like I didn't like Texas last night personally, I

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Speaker 2: looked at Texas and I thought they were going to

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Speaker 2: lose to NC State. They end up beating NC State.

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Speaker 2: I like BYU here in this game. I think BYU

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Speaker 2: is the better basketball team. I think BYU's offense is

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Speaker 2: going to be something to deal with. And the fact

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Speaker 2: they're playing in Portland, Oregon, which I think gives a

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Speaker 2: lot of BYU fans a chance to head on over.

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Speaker 2: I think there'll be a lot of Texas fans there obviously,

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Speaker 2: but I think BYU this is what they've been waiting for.

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Speaker 2: This is what they've been hoping for. And I know

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Speaker 2: BYU hasn't played great down the stretch. They go with

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Speaker 2: that stretch where they lost three games in a row

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Speaker 2: to UCF, West Virginia and Cincinnati, where they've won three

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Speaker 2: of four since then, and they lost to Houston seventy

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Speaker 2: three to sixty six, which is nothing to shake a

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Speaker 2: stick at. I just haven't been a big fan of

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Speaker 2: Texas this season. I like BYU here. I'm gonna come

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Speaker 2: in and I'm gonna lay the two and a half

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Speaker 2: BYU minus two and a half up against Texas before

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Speaker 2: I give the other three plays. Let me remind you

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Speaker 2: continue on here with our look at this so again.

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Speaker 2: First two plays Saint Louis plus two and a half

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Speaker 2: BYU minus two and a half. Let's go to Clemson

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Speaker 2: and Iowa, and this is going to be a very

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Speaker 2: interesting basketball game. I'm higher on Clemson than most people.

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Speaker 2: I've liked Clemson for a bit. Here I liked him

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Speaker 2: last year. I like him this year because Clemson plays defense,

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Speaker 2: and I think when you play defense in the NCAA Tournament,

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Speaker 2: I think that can really cause problems to whoever you play.

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Speaker 2: Kempom has this as a two point win for Iowa.

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Speaker 2: That's the number. Iowa's offense this year has been very

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Speaker 2: impressive under Ben McCollum. He's come over, but Iowa's been reeling.

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Speaker 2: Iowa has lost one, two, three, four, five, six. Seven

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Speaker 2: of ten games Iowa has lost. They lost to Ohio

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Speaker 2: State in the Big Ten tournaments. They lost their final

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Speaker 2: three regular season games to Nebraska, Michigan, and Penn State.

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Speaker 2: They lost to Wisconsin, they lost to Purdue, and they

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Speaker 2: lost to Maryland. They beat Nebraska at home and they

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Speaker 2: beat Iowa State at home. And that's a problem for

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Speaker 2: Iowa because Iowa is a very good team when it

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Speaker 2: comes to being on their home floor. They're fifteen and

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Speaker 2: three at home. They were six and nine on the road.

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Speaker 2: Clemson eleven and seven on the road this year. Clemson, defensively,

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Speaker 2: I think we'll have the ability to match up with Iowa.

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Speaker 2: Both these teams were kind of suspect in their conferences.

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Speaker 2: Ats wise, Iowa was nine and thirteen in the Big Ten.

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Speaker 2: Clemson was ten, ten and one in the Big Ten.

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Speaker 2: They lost by twelve to Duke in the in the

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Speaker 2: ACC Tournament after beating North Carolina. They were favored against

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Speaker 2: North Carolina. They won the game by one. They were

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Speaker 2: laying one and a half in that game. They beat

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Speaker 2: and covered against wake Forest. But I just don't like

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Speaker 2: the mojo with Iowa. I don't like the direction that

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Speaker 2: they're going to be quite honest, and I think Clemson's

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Speaker 2: going to win the game outright. I like Clemson here,

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Speaker 2: but I think Brad Bronell has had a really nice run,

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Speaker 2: and even though they did lose to Duke, I think

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Speaker 2: this is a game in which Clemson gets the W.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 2: It's a small number. Again, we'll go ahead and take

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Speaker 2: the two and a half points. Clemson plus two and

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Speaker 2: a half up against Iowa the last game before I

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Speaker 2: give you the hard rock bet of the day. This

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Speaker 2: is a trend play, and maybe this is a bit mean,

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Speaker 2: but I'm sorry. The Mountain West Conference is garbage in

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Speaker 2: the NUBA Tournament. Since twenty sixteen, the Mountain West Conference

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Speaker 2: is three, sorry, thirteen and twenty six against.

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Speaker 1: The number that is awful.

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Speaker 2: That is the lowest ROI of any major conference and

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Speaker 2: the least profitable conference against the spread. In the last

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Speaker 2: seventeen tournaments, getting back to two two thousand and seven,

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Speaker 2: the Mountain West has been above five hundred in a

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Speaker 2: single tournament once. That was back in twenty eighteen. Mountain

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Speaker 2: West teams, when they're seated ninth or worse, are nine

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Speaker 2: twenty nine and two against the spread in the tournament.

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Speaker 2: They've gone five and thirty five in the those games,

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Speaker 2: straight up five and thirty five.

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Speaker 1: So what do we have.

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Speaker 2: We have Utah State, whose coach has already come out

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Speaker 2: and complained that they've been under seated, that they're a

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Speaker 2: much better basketball team than that. I don't think so.

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Speaker 2: I was betting against Utah State, and I was getting

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Speaker 2: burned a bit by doing it. They kind of at

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Speaker 2: the end of the year they were able to get

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Speaker 2: by UNLV. I bet I took UNLV in that game.

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Speaker 1: That was wrong.

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Speaker 2: I had them up against. You know, that was the

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Speaker 2: only game that was the UNLV game I got it

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Speaker 2: right against when I bet U and V in March third,

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Speaker 2: when the Rebels were at home on Senior Day and

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Speaker 2: they killed Utah State that was right. I bet it

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Speaker 2: again in the tournament in the Mountain West Conference tournaments

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Speaker 2: and it was a twenty point win for Utah State.

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Speaker 2: They then beat Nevada and then they beat San Diego State,

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Speaker 2: so they get a nine seed in the NTAA tournament

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Speaker 2: where they'll play Villanova. Kempom has this as a one

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Speaker 2: point win, seventy five to seventy four. But look, this

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Speaker 2: is Big East in Kevin Willard up against a Utah

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Speaker 2: State team that I don't like out of the Mountain

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Speaker 2: West Conference. The handicap kind of comes down to just

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Speaker 2: that I like the coaching matchup, and I like the

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Speaker 2: fact that the Mountain West Conference has been a dead

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Speaker 2: bet against here in the NSAA tournament for years. You

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Speaker 2: just don't ride with Utah State or anybody in the

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Speaker 2: Mountain West Conference, regardless if it's only a one big

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Speaker 2: lead or not. I'm not a fan at all. Gimme Nova.

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Speaker 2: We're going Nova plus two up against Utah State here

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Speaker 2: for us, all these bets for one point one units

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Speaker 2: Saint Louis plus two and a half, BYU minus two

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Speaker 2: and a half, Clemson plus two and a half, and

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Speaker 2: Nova plus two. That takes us to our hard Rock

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Speaker 2: Bet of the Day. Sorry rolling through wrung slides. Hard

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Speaker 2: Rock Bet of the Day being brought to you by

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00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:57,960
Speaker 2: our friends at hard rock Bet. Hard rock Bet they

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00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:01,760
Speaker 2: are psyched for March. They've got tons of things going

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Speaker 2: on all tournament long. Hard Rock Bet is rolling out

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00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:08,680
Speaker 2: daily dancing boosts featuring a live profit boost and a

300
00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:12,160
Speaker 2: parlay profit boost every single day. That's more ways to

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00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:15,480
Speaker 2: shoot your shot and cash in with boosted odds and

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00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:19,040
Speaker 2: those heart stopping zero on the clock moments they now pay.

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00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:21,360
Speaker 2: At hard rock Bet. They're giving out a twenty five

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00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,600
Speaker 2: dollars bonus bet throughout the tournament if a team you

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00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:27,960
Speaker 2: bet to win or cover hits a buzzer beater.

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Speaker 1: Very cool stuff there. Don't sit on the bench.

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Speaker 2: Download the hard rock Bet app today and get dancing

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00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:40,520
Speaker 2: here with hard rock Bet. Let's talk about Northern Iowa

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Speaker 2: and Saint John's only a game a mom could love.

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Speaker 2: This game is going to be uglee. I talked about unders, right, Well,

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Speaker 2: here's a game in which I think you can bet under.

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Speaker 2: These teams play slow. Northern Iowa twenty and fourteen to

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Speaker 2: the under during the regular season d during the season,

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Speaker 2: Saint John's twenty one and twelve to the under. Saint

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Speaker 2: John's ended the year. Nine of their last ten games

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Speaker 2: went under. Northern Iowa. Six of the last ten six

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Speaker 2: or last ten games went over, but two of the

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Speaker 2: last five went over. Three of the last five went

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Speaker 2: under for Northern Iowa. We're talking pace of play, We're

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Speaker 2: talking just grinding the basketball. Saint John's is going to

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Speaker 2: take the air out of the ball. Same thing I

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Speaker 2: think when it comes down to Northern Iowa when they

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Speaker 2: have the ball. Northern Iowa is three hundred and nineteenth

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Speaker 2: an average possession length. Now Saint John's actually is pretty fast,

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Speaker 2: the thirty sixth in average possession length. However, they make

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Speaker 2: their opponents work two hundred and forty seconds, and Northern

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Speaker 2: Iowa really makes you work three hundred and fifty six.

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Speaker 2: This is Ben Jacobson at his most talented. They do

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Speaker 2: not want to get into an up and down fight

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Speaker 2: here at all with Saint John's. They want to grind. Defensively,

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Speaker 2: Northern Iowa is the third best defensive team behind the

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Speaker 2: three point line in the country. They are twenty fourth

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Speaker 2: in defensive efficiency. They are twenty fourth in defensive effective

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Speaker 2: field goal percentage. Equally, Saint John's. They're twelfth in defensive

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Speaker 2: efficiency and they're twenty eighth in effective field goal percentage

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Speaker 2: defensively forty second and three point defense in fortieth and

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Speaker 2: two point defense. This is defense, defense, defense. This is

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Speaker 2: teams that like to walk the ball up the court

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Speaker 2: at times, and these are teams that are not going to,

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Speaker 2: in my mind, look to push tempo. And I know

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Speaker 2: Northern Iowa has no interest in pushing tempo. This is

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Speaker 2: one of the games I think you can look at

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Speaker 2: from an under perspective, and we're gonna go ahead and

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Speaker 2: bet the under Northern Iowa and Saint John's under one

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Speaker 2: thirty two for the hard rock bet of the day,

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Speaker 2: So plays for us here for our college basketball podcast.

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Speaker 2: For the week, we are jumping in with Saint Louis

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Speaker 2: plus two and a half against Georgia, BYU laying two

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Speaker 2: and a half against Texas, Clemson plus two and a

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Speaker 2: half against Iowa, and Nova plus two against Utah State,

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Speaker 2: and the hard rock bet of the day is Northern

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Speaker 2: Iowa and Saint John's under one thirty two for this week.

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Speaker 2: Best of luck on your plays. More bets for the

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Speaker 2: second round of the NUAA Tournament will be on the

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Speaker 2: Daily Juice podcast to go check that out, and then

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Speaker 2: we'll be back next week. We'll probably do it on

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Speaker 2: Wednesday again next week as we go ahead and look

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Speaker 2: at the NAA Tournament for Thursday and for Friday. My

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Speaker 2: name is Matt Parol. You guys can follow me across

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Speaker 2: all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt every single

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Speaker 2: week all the way to Indianapolis. It is the Betting

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Speaker 2: Pros weekly college basketball betting show.

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Speaker 1: Sue the pers