1 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: It's the Big Take from Bloomberg News and I Heart Radio. 2 00:00:07,440 --> 00:00:12,480 Speaker 1: I'm West Cansova today. Why are so many Chinese citizens 3 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 1: so angry with their government? Those are protesters in central 4 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 1: Beijing chanting we don't want lockdowns, we want freedom. If 5 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 1: you're thinking to yourself, we've been talking a lot about 6 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: China on this show lately, you're right, and we're doing 7 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 1: it again today because, as is so often the case, 8 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 1: what happens there reverberates around the world, and what's happening 9 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: now is unhappy citizens are doing something you rarely see 10 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: in China. They are taken to the streets in cities 11 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: across the country to protest strict COVID lockdowns. To help 12 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: sort out why this is happening and what to make 13 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 1: of it, I'm joined by Senior Executive editor John lu 14 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 1: He's in Beijing and he oversees Bloomberg's China coverage. John Luthi, 15 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 1: thanks so much for talking to me today. My pleasure. West. John, 16 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 1: you're in Beijing, Can you describe what is happening, why 17 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 1: are people protesting, and what does it look like? So 18 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,160 Speaker 1: as you'll know, COVID zero has been in place for 19 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:37,960 Speaker 1: a long time here a lot of restrictions, a lot 20 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 1: of people being locked down in their apartments, so not 21 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: being able to leave their apartments for extended periods of time. 22 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:47,199 Speaker 1: That's obviously causes a lot of frustration. And it really 23 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 1: boiled over when there was this fire in a room 24 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 1: Chi the capital of Shinjoun that killed at least ten people, 25 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 1: and a lot of people online we're saying that that 26 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 1: deathcount was so high because the fire. I just couldn't 27 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 1: get to the apartment building because of barriers having been 28 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: put up because of COVID zero. And so Sunday night 29 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 1: last weekend, there were these calls for protests around the country. 30 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:16,239 Speaker 1: Here in Beijing, there was sort of a map somebody 31 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 1: looked like somebody screen grab Google Maps and then just 32 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 1: wrote on it, you know, protest here. And so I 33 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 1: went out there with some of our colleagues and other 34 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:27,639 Speaker 1: media other reporters here in Beijing, and at first there 35 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: was very few people, mostly cops, and then around ten pm, 36 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: just a woman on the bridge over by the Lama 37 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 1: River in central Beijing just held up a piece of 38 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: white paper which had been sort of the symbol of protests, 39 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 1: and all of a sudden just had people started to 40 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 1: gather and pretty soon in about half an hour, there 41 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 1: was maybe hundreds. At the peak, there was maybe about 42 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: a thousand people here in Beijing holding up pieces of paper, 43 00:02:54,360 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 1: channing slogans about wanting to end the COVID restrictions. The 44 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 1: cops were out masked, but they generally let people be. 45 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 1: It just kept going and go. It went on so 46 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: long I ended up having to call it a night 47 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 1: about one am and just went home. But I think 48 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 1: it went well into the morning. And was there anything 49 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 1: more than people protesting? Did it it all turned violent? 50 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: Was there any confrontation between police and the protesters. There 51 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: was a little bit of jostling. I would say there 52 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: wasn't any you know. The police didn't come out and 53 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: riot gear and try to clear the crowd or anything 54 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: like that. At about midnight, they did try to ask 55 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 1: everybody to leave. They kind of walked around saying go home, 56 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 1: go home, it's late, everybody needs some rest. But after 57 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: trying that and failing, they just sort of stopped stood, 58 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 1: tried to make sure that people weren't in the middle 59 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 1: of the street so the traffic could continue, but otherwise 60 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: let people be. That is obviously change in the last 61 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 1: couple of days. The last couple of days Monday night 62 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 1: Tuesday night, we've seen a much more robust presence on 63 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 1: the street when it comes to the police. The police 64 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 1: are checking people's phones when they come, they're asking people 65 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 1: what they're doing. There's much more pronounced attempt to stop 66 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 1: people from gathering before the crowd gets too big. John, 67 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 1: you said that these protests are in response to China's policy, 68 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 1: the COVID zero policy. Can you describe exactly what COVID 69 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:31,599 Speaker 1: zero requires of people? I mean, I think the number 70 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:33,839 Speaker 1: one thing to understand about COVID zero is that it 71 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 1: literally aims to get to zero, and what zero refers 72 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:41,159 Speaker 1: to has changed a little bit right now. Our best 73 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 1: understanding is it means zero community spread, so zero infections 74 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: outside of quarantine. And to get to that, you know, 75 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 1: local governments literally have to lock people in their apartments. 76 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 1: And what really upset people were local governments essentially chain 77 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 1: using chains to chain doors posed. There have been some 78 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 1: instances where local governments have bolted doors shut, and that 79 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: obviously in a situation where there's a fire in an 80 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: apartment building, that could be extremely dangerous. And so the 81 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: shintail fires, I think really set off this what if 82 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,600 Speaker 1: that was me moment for a lot of people, and 83 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: you had this really strong reaction across the country because 84 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:26,239 Speaker 1: of that. Of course, these COVID zero lockdowns are also 85 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 1: coming amid a lot of other pressures that citizens in 86 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,799 Speaker 1: China are feeling. The economy has slowed a great deal. 87 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 1: People are feeling that it's difficult to afford things. Um, 88 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: how much of this is also an expression of larger discontents? Yeah, 89 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 1: you know, I think a lot of stuff is built 90 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: up over the years. It's obviously been three years, you know, 91 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: trying to deal with COVID. This year has been harder 92 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,599 Speaker 1: than most. I mean, part of the problem with China 93 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: is the first year of the pandemic, the government, because 94 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: of the variant that was going around not being as 95 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:05,159 Speaker 1: infectious as Amicron, they were able to get things really 96 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 1: under control rather rapidly and to allow life to get 97 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 1: back to something very close to normal, and so sort 98 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 1: of the populations here didn't have to really deal with 99 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 1: lockdowns and the virus all the way until Amicron really 100 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:22,280 Speaker 1: started to spread in two and since then, you know, 101 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 1: people haven't been able to travel, businesses have been closed. 102 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 1: If you're a small business, person, You've probably lost a 103 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 1: lot of money this year, and as a result, people 104 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 1: are not spending and that's loft on top of you know, 105 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 1: over the last decade or so, the amount of space 106 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 1: for the sense for public discourse has shrunk tremendously. If 107 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 1: you look at social media and China, it's more sensor 108 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:50,919 Speaker 1: than it's ever been in the past. For instance, I 109 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:53,720 Speaker 1: actually signed up for Facebook in China back in the 110 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 1: early two thousands, and so it was much more open 111 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:59,160 Speaker 1: ten fifteen years ago, and that's sort of shrieking of 112 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 1: the space for word discussions really weighed on people as well, 113 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,359 Speaker 1: and that's something that JJ and Ping has really enforced 114 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 1: in the time that he's been in power, a greater 115 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 1: control social control over what people can see and what 116 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 1: they can say. You know. Si Jun Ping has made 117 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 1: it one of his key priorities is to straight the 118 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: national security here in China, and when the Chinese government 119 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: the Party looks at national security, they see foreign influence 120 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 1: as a counter to that, as deteriorating that, undermining that, 121 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 1: and as such they've really cracked down on social media, 122 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 1: the ability of people to communicate, to organize. When I 123 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 1: came to China in the early two thousand's there was 124 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: much more of robust sort of civil society. There were 125 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: human rights lawyers, there were people who would defend the 126 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 1: poor if they got into trouble with the government. They 127 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 1: would defend the farmers, you know, who were saying that 128 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 1: their land was being taken away from them by the 129 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 1: local governments. And when she came into power, he largely 130 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 1: put it into that and the justification was that the 131 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 1: country needed to be unified. The splits of society, the 132 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 1: confrontations and society were undermining national security, and he's used 133 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 1: that to really tighten the party's grip over how the 134 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 1: country's run. One of the things you mentioned a little 135 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 1: earlier was that the symbol of the protests has become 136 00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 1: this blank white sheet of paper. What is the significance 137 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:34,440 Speaker 1: of that? So that blank white cheet of paper, it 138 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: was used quite a lot in Hong Kong during the 139 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 1: protests there in the city. I think it symbolizes the 140 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: fact that you know, whatever you say, ken it will 141 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: be used against you. And so people are not saying 142 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 1: anything by saying nothing, expressing a lot through that, you know, 143 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:53,200 Speaker 1: when is notable for its absence, I think is what 144 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 1: people are trying to get across, and one of the 145 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: protesters that we talked to out in Beijing was saying, 146 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 1: you know, one of her main gripes was that the 147 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,680 Speaker 1: fire and shin jab that killed at least ten people, 148 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 1: there were no Chinese media reports about it, but that 149 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: that happened just a few weeks after we had the 150 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 1: stampede and Soul during that Halloween weekend, and there were 151 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: lots and lots of media reports in China about that stampede. 152 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 1: Is she was just really upset about how that contrast 153 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 1: between you know, when something bad happens overseas, there's lots 154 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: of coverage of it here in China, but then when 155 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 1: something like this happens here in China, the citizens don't 156 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: know about it. It seems like it's being covered up, 157 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 1: and so that actually upset a lot of people as well. 158 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: What else did people tell you when you were speaking 159 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 1: to them about why they were protesting. One of the 160 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 1: things that kept coming up was just the amount of 161 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 1: testing and the restrictions, and people just being tired of it, 162 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 1: and people feeling like they didn't understand why the rest 163 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:56,839 Speaker 1: of the world seems to be moving on but the 164 00:09:56,960 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 1: China could not and you know, part of this and 165 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 1: some people raise this as you know, we have the 166 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:05,320 Speaker 1: World Cup going on at the moment, and if you 167 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 1: turn on the World Cup, you can often see crowds 168 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 1: of tens of thousands of people in a stadium, not 169 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 1: wearing a mask and seemingly living a very normal, happy life, 170 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 1: and that just was such a contrast to the situation 171 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 1: we have at the moment here in China where the 172 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:25,680 Speaker 1: infections are spreading. They're hitting record numbers and it's resulting 173 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: in lots of lockdowns and people not being able to 174 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:29,439 Speaker 1: go to school, not being able to go to work, 175 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 1: stuck at home. It's just this frustration of fatigue that 176 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 1: has built up over the years. Are people taking great risks? 177 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:42,559 Speaker 1: Are they in personal danger for going out in publicly 178 00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:46,079 Speaker 1: protesting when there are so many surveillance methods that can 179 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: identify them. They are certainly taking a substantial amount of 180 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,560 Speaker 1: risk to go out and protest. We've had reports in 181 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:55,440 Speaker 1: the past couple of days that the police have started 182 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 1: calling people who were at the protests and that you know, 183 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 1: without explicitly threatening, but you know, implicitly letting them know 184 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: that they shouldn't go out again, and that they know 185 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 1: who they are. Yes, I mean the ability of the 186 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 1: state here to track people being by phones, being by 187 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 1: facial recognition cameras, it's very high, and I think that 188 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 1: surveillance ability has pros and conins. Obviously, normally Beijing is 189 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 1: an extremely safe city. There's very little crime on the streets. 190 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 1: People feel very safe as a result of that. But 191 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: at the same time, if there were protests, if there 192 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:33,080 Speaker 1: was something that the populace opposed in terms of government policy, 193 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 1: it can be used to suppress that as well. And 194 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 1: so people are taking real risk when they go out. 195 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 1: And you know, the crowds are large because protests of 196 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 1: this sort are so rare in China that when you 197 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:48,719 Speaker 1: get a thousand people out, it stands out. It's substantial, 198 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 1: it's unusual. But in the grand scheme of things, Beijing 199 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:56,320 Speaker 1: is home to somewhere between million people, so a thousand 200 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 1: people out on a street quarter is not that large 201 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:02,719 Speaker 1: a slice of the population. More with John Lou when 202 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 1: we come back, John, what are people actually asking the 203 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 1: government to do and is the government responding to them? 204 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 1: So the government is responding a little bit too. Part 205 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 1: of the requests so the request range from on one end, 206 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 1: you know, get rid of COVID zero period, so open up. 207 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 1: We want to be just like the US or Europe, 208 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: you know, we want everything to be open, people to 209 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 1: be able to travel. And there are more specific requests, 210 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 1: you know, things like don't make me get tested every day, 211 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 1: or reopen the schools, or don't allow the local government 212 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:50,319 Speaker 1: official in my neighborhood to chain lock my door close 213 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,679 Speaker 1: because we have one infection in the building. And some 214 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 1: of these more detailed, incremental things the government is responding to. 215 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 1: And so, for example, testing requirements in Beijing, they just 216 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:04,440 Speaker 1: announced if you're not going out, if you're not going 217 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 1: to work, not going to school, you don't have to 218 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 1: get tested anymore. They've told all the local governments it 219 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 1: is not allowed to use chains or bolts or any 220 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 1: sort of that thing to lock people into their apartments 221 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 1: or to lock buildings up. That's been clearly forbidden. They 222 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:21,840 Speaker 1: have started to signal to the populace that they are 223 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 1: getting ready to roll back to exit COVID zero. We 224 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: just had this announcement they're gonna make a major push 225 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 1: to get those over eighty vaccinated. That's been a big roadblock. 226 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 1: It's only those over eighty have gotten a booster, so 227 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,240 Speaker 1: a third shot, and so obviously that's the population that 228 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 1: would be most at risk if there was an opening, 229 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 1: and so getting them vaccinated will go a long way 230 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 1: and paving the way to exiting COVID zero. And you've 231 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:52,840 Speaker 1: had government officials come out and talk about how they 232 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,959 Speaker 1: know how badly people are feeling the pain of COVID zero. 233 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 1: They're trying to do what they can to make it better, 234 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:02,199 Speaker 1: So trying to take a more soft approach to these requests. 235 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:04,959 Speaker 1: But at the same time you do also have, I guess, 236 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,440 Speaker 1: in addition to the carrot, you have the stick, which is, 237 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 1: you know, the cops are out in force on the 238 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 1: streets at night, just in case there are protests. We 239 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 1: had the top Communist Party Commission for Legal Affairs over 240 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: a night saying that they are going to take strong 241 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 1: measures against anyone who wants to cause disruption or to 242 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 1: undermine the state. And so that obviously is an implicit 243 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 1: threat to anyone who's thinking of protesting more. And so 244 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 1: it's a nuanced approach that's both carrot and stick, and 245 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: I guess that in some ways illustrates the problem that 246 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: the Chinese government has, which is, on the one hand 247 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:46,480 Speaker 1: wanting to seem responsive and wanting to quell protests, but 248 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 1: on any other hand, not seeming like they're giving into 249 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 1: protests that they see as illegitimate. That's why I think 250 00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 1: the government does not want to make it seem like 251 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 1: these protesters got out on the street and then we changed. 252 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 1: Because of that, I think one concern is obviously prestige 253 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 1: and what it makes the government look like. But I 254 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 1: think the other concern is whether or not it feels 255 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: more protests. If people think, you know, if I go 256 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: out of the street, I get something immediately, it could 257 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 1: encourage more people to go out in the street. But 258 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 1: if you look back over the last decade or so, 259 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 1: protests have largely resulted in the government changing the way 260 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,320 Speaker 1: they do things. So we saw that when it came 261 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 1: to pollution. Pollution, and it was a huge problem. I 262 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 1: think you'll remember stories about how bad the pollution in 263 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 1: maas you was. It was so bad that they had 264 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: to cancel flights, for example, and people protested, they got 265 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 1: really upset, and the government then came in and started 266 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 1: to slowly and surely change things. And now it is 267 00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 1: much better here in China in terms of pollution, and 268 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: so at a local level. We've see that as well, 269 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 1: where there have been disputes about land or other things, 270 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 1: the government will slowly start to change. I think that 271 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 1: adaptability is something that has become a hallmark of the 272 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 1: Communist Party. But I don't think this regime would still 273 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 1: be in place that would have been able to oversee 274 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:21,720 Speaker 1: such miraculous economic growth over the last couple of decades 275 00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 1: if it wasn't able to change and adjust the way 276 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 1: it does things to better fit the situation of what 277 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 1: people are asking for. One of the other problems of 278 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 1: the COVID zero policy seems to be that despite it, 279 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 1: cases are still rising, and if they then open up 280 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 1: the country and loosen these restrictions very quickly, you could 281 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 1: see an enormous rise in a number of cases. So 282 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: that is the real danger, right. There's, obviously, from the 283 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 1: protesters perspective, a real desire from people who, to be fair, 284 00:16:56,640 --> 00:17:01,359 Speaker 1: are mostly young, healthy and not in the high risk population, 285 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 1: who want the economy reopened because they need to work, 286 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 1: they need to earn money, they need to pay their mortgage. 287 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 1: But you have this other population that is older, that 288 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: has maybe underlying conditions that are really at risk, and 289 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 1: that you know, I think, honestly are quite fearful of 290 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 1: what a reopening would bring for them. China has only 291 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 1: had five thousand something deaths, and a large part of 292 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: the reason why that death count has been so low 293 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 1: is because of COVID zero and all these harsh lockdowns 294 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:31,480 Speaker 1: having kept infections in check. I think the government has 295 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 1: to move though, because with an acron the new sub variants, 296 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 1: they are just so transmissible that, you know, the playbook 297 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:41,399 Speaker 1: that the government has relied on doesn't really work as 298 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 1: effectively as it needs to, and so you could have 299 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 1: a situation the worst of both worlds, where you have 300 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:48,879 Speaker 1: lockdowns and yet as we've seen, you have lots of 301 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 1: infections across the country. I think the danger here is 302 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 1: some sort of messy unwind where the country starts to open, 303 00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 1: but it's not totally ready. Vaccination haven't gotten quite where 304 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 1: they need to be, the number of ICU beds has 305 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 1: not been increased to the level they need, and then 306 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:09,400 Speaker 1: you see the health care system really start to come 307 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 1: under strain, you see death start about you know, then 308 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:14,880 Speaker 1: I think that would be real trouble for the government here. 309 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 1: My conversation with John lou continues after the break John. 310 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 1: We've seen not just protests, but in a few instances 311 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 1: protesters actually calling for GJ and ping himself to step down. 312 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 1: And that's a whole different level of protest. Yeah, I 313 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 1: think there is frustration, and I think some of it 314 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,880 Speaker 1: has been directed as She because he is obviously demand 315 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 1: in charge. I think we saw that with the most 316 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 1: recent Party Congress. He's definitely got all the lovers of 317 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 1: power in his head. And you know, COVID zero has 318 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,040 Speaker 1: been something he has defended over and over and again. 319 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 1: It's something that he's touted as showing that China is 320 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:08,679 Speaker 1: better in terms of its governments in the West. And 321 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:11,560 Speaker 1: so I think it's not surprising that the protesters would 322 00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:14,560 Speaker 1: associate COVID zero with She. I think many people do that. 323 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:18,680 Speaker 1: Whether or not that is an actual thing that could happen, 324 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:22,920 Speaker 1: whether these protests could actually undermine She's grasp of power, 325 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 1: I think it looks right now extremely unlikely. You know, 326 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 1: we've just talked about the Party Congress where he essentially 327 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:33,919 Speaker 1: appointed allies to the Standing Committee. He it seems to 328 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 1: be well entrenched in power, and when an unprecedented third 329 00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 1: term setting himself up possibly to rule for life, there 330 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 1: does not appear to be a challenger on the horizon, 331 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 1: and so it seems unlikely that these protesters will breathe 332 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 1: any serious challenge, So she's grasp of power. That being said, 333 00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: I do think that she sees the need to change 334 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,440 Speaker 1: the way that COVID is dealt with here in China. 335 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:00,960 Speaker 1: You know, he himself has just been to the G twenty. 336 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,480 Speaker 1: He's been to a pack at the G twenty a 337 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 1: pack he was out legally with his mask off. We've 338 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 1: had a number of state visitors come to Beijing, the 339 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 1: president of Cuba. We have the president of the European 340 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 1: Commission about to come here at to Beijing as well. 341 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 1: So I think definitely the leadership and she himself sees 342 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,880 Speaker 1: the need to reopen. They are trying to do it 343 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 1: in a way that avoids that Bessie unwinding that we 344 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:27,880 Speaker 1: talked about. How do you see this ultimately playing out 345 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:31,600 Speaker 1: in Hong Kong? Of course, before the pandemic there were 346 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 1: large and sometimes violent protests which the Chinese government cracked 347 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 1: down on quite forcefully. Do you see the possibility that 348 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 1: something like that could happen in China itself if the 349 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 1: protests continue. I think if the protesters come out and 350 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:56,040 Speaker 1: get a force. The possibility of confrontation is high. I 351 00:20:56,080 --> 00:21:00,639 Speaker 1: think that the likelihood that we will get more protests 352 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 1: and large numbers is relatively low. I think it's low 353 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:07,239 Speaker 1: because the police are out in force. I think it's 354 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:11,600 Speaker 1: relatively low because they let people vent. Over the weekend. 355 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 1: There were protests in Shahio Saturday, protests elsewhere around the country, 356 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 1: including beij on Sunday. Those protesters were largely allowed to 357 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:23,639 Speaker 1: protest and to vent. They actually allowed a lot of 358 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:28,880 Speaker 1: videos of people protesting and having confrontations with local authorities 359 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 1: over the weekend. They allowed those videos to stay up 360 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 1: on social media, and they're reacting by making these tweaks 361 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,919 Speaker 1: when it comes to testing, when it comes to the 362 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 1: way the lockdowns are executed, and so I think that 363 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:46,439 Speaker 1: combination suggest that we are unlikely to see large numbers 364 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,440 Speaker 1: of protesters out on the street again. But something else 365 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 1: could happen. If there's another fire, if there's another tragedy, 366 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 1: you could really see a spark that sets people off. 367 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,639 Speaker 1: And if that does happen, I think the chances for 368 00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 1: some sort of confrontation between the police and protesters is 369 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 1: high because the police have sort of put their foot 370 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 1: down to say enough is enough. I think they would 371 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:10,200 Speaker 1: feel they have to take a firm approach if they 372 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:14,959 Speaker 1: were to get that challenge. And John, I just had 373 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,520 Speaker 1: one last question for you. Given how difficult to position 374 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 1: the country is in now with cases that are high 375 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 1: despite lockdowns, how do you think China eventually does get 376 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 1: on top of COVID in a way that other countries 377 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,160 Speaker 1: around the world have been able to do. I think 378 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:35,639 Speaker 1: it's really going to come down to vaccinations, the number 379 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:39,439 Speaker 1: of vaccinations for the elderly, especially once they get that 380 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 1: to a certain level. I think I see you beds 381 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 1: trying to has very few. I see you beds and 382 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:47,399 Speaker 1: its healthcare system. If there were a big uptick in 383 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,400 Speaker 1: serious cases of COVID, the health care system would come 384 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,840 Speaker 1: under a lot of trade. And so I think the 385 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,200 Speaker 1: authorities are going to be trying to get those two 386 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,639 Speaker 1: metrics up to where they feel more comfortable. And I 387 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 1: think there will be a real thing and when they 388 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 1: do reopenate, I think it will be bumpy. I think 389 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 1: it's almost inevitable that there will be more deaths just 390 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 1: because we have so many people, I mean one point 391 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 1: four billion people here in China, a large number of 392 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 1: those people are over sixty, over eighty. Many of those 393 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 1: people have underlying conditions, and so it's almost inevitable that 394 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 1: there will be more deaths. I think the question will 395 00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:25,400 Speaker 1: be are they able to control that number it arranged 396 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: that is not going to to one for some retrench 397 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,439 Speaker 1: with to return to lockdowns, and to not to spark 398 00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:36,160 Speaker 1: some social upheaval as a result of it. John Luke, 399 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 1: thanks so much for speaking with me today. Thank you 400 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 1: pleasure to be here. You can read Bloomberg's extensive coverage 401 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 1: of the protesting China at Bloomberg dot com. Thanks for 402 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,159 Speaker 1: listening to us here at The Big Take. To daily 403 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 1: podcast from Bloomberg and I Heart Radio. For more shows 404 00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,359 Speaker 1: from my Heart Radio, visit the i Heart Radio app 405 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 1: Apple podcast Sir wherever you listen, read today's story and 406 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 1: subscribe to our daily newsletter at Bloomberg dot com slash 407 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:11,040 Speaker 1: Big Take, and we'd love to hear from you. Email 408 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,880 Speaker 1: us with questions or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg 409 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 1: dot net. The supervising producer of the Big Take is 410 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 1: Vicky Burgalina. Our senior producer is Katherine Fink. Our producer 411 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:28,480 Speaker 1: is Rebecca ShaSS. Hilda Garcia is our engineer. Original music 412 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:32,400 Speaker 1: by Leo Sidrin. I'm West Casova. Have a great weekend.