1 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast. 2 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: My name is Mike Reagan. I'm a senior editor at Bloomberg, 3 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and I'm Vildonna hire across asset reporter with Bloomberg. And 4 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:27,640 Speaker 1: this week on the show, well, sticky inflation, a slowing economy, 5 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: even bank runs. Stocks have had a lot of headwinds 6 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 1: this year, and yet the market is still pricing in 7 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: a soft landing, where a scenario under which inflation is 8 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:41,319 Speaker 1: subdued but the economy avoids a deep recession. At least 9 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:43,479 Speaker 1: that's according to this week's guest, who is the w 10 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:47,199 Speaker 1: CEO of a major hedge fund firm. But does the 11 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 1: market of it right? We're gonna get into it with him, Vildanna, 12 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 1: But first I gotta ask, are you going to ask 13 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 1: me a basketball question? I could don't. I don't know anything. 14 00:00:57,320 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: I just know that the game was on really late 15 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 1: and everybody was mad. Yeah, right, started after nine or something. 16 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,839 Speaker 1: That's about right. No. I was gonna ask you, um, 17 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: if you watched MTV as a child, of course, of course, 18 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:13,199 Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, cribs, cribs, let's see my day. MTV 19 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: still was playing videos. I don't I don't think I 20 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 1: saw many cribs. Okay, So my craziest thing, the reason 21 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 1: I ask is my craziest thing. The week harkings back 22 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 1: to the early MTV days, and I'm wondering if you'll 23 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 1: even know what we're talking about. Nineteen eighties, when did 24 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:30,320 Speaker 1: MTV start? It was like mid eighties. Yeah, okay, late 25 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: eighties maybe, No. They they played videos when I was 26 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 1: young too, But they also had like really fun shows. 27 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:37,400 Speaker 1: It was cribs. Was your main cribs? What else did 28 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 1: they have? Oh my gosh, they had room Oh was 29 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: that an MTV show? Yeah? They had Room Raiders Room 30 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: rad Yeah, which is just like a really gross show, 31 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 1: like somebody will go into your room and like literally 32 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 1: go through all your stuff and try to embarrass you. Yeah, 33 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 1: they had some good shows. I guess Jersey Shore was 34 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 1: that's that's that's a gem. That's a gem. In fact, 35 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:02,560 Speaker 1: my daughter ran in to Pauly d Wow on her 36 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: spring break where in Panama City, Florida, which is I 37 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 1: guess is like the Jersey Shore of Florida. Yes, but anyway, 38 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 1: we digress. We digress because our guest actually is really 39 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 1: far removed from the Jersey for he's not really the 40 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:23,640 Speaker 1: Jersey Island. Sure, he's in the UK baste. Yeah, not 41 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 1: quite the same Jersey shore. Not the same maybe a 42 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 1: nicer Jersey shore. But anyway, Mark jones Man Group Deputy CEO, 43 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: is joining us this week. Mark, thank you so much 44 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 1: for joining us and welcome to the show. Pleasure glad 45 00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 1: to join you. I'm glad to be far away from 46 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:41,919 Speaker 1: the new Jersey Shore, right, it's definitely a different one 47 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 1: on all side. Um, Okay, So you sent us a 48 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 1: couple of notes before we started and you said we're 49 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 1: in a tough period four large asset owners, and I 50 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 1: wanted to ask you about this and what the backdrop 51 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 1: is right now, what maybe some of your biggest worries 52 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 1: out there are, and just sort of conceptualize this. Yeah. Sure, 53 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 1: So I think if you're a large asset owner, you've 54 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: obviously you've got some structural risk asset positions in equities 55 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 1: and bonds, and you've had this very benign period where 56 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:15,080 Speaker 1: inflation just hasn't been a problem or certainly in developed markets, 57 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 1: and obviously it's been back with a vengeance over the 58 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 1: past eighteen months or so. And getting out of the 59 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: way of that when you have those structural long asset 60 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:27,800 Speaker 1: positions is very, very tough for people, and actually, frankly, 61 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 1: HARKing back to how do I risk manage my positions 62 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 1: in an inflationary environment? Last year is one of the 63 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: most difficult that most of our clients will have had 64 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: for at least a decade and possibly significantly more. And 65 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 1: they're definitely still concerned about what do we do now 66 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 1: that this insidious sort of force on real assets that 67 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 1: hasn't been around for a long period of time is back. 68 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 1: What do they do with their allocations? Where do they 69 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 1: need to move things around? Who can help them? Where's 70 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: the ALP Do they still need to increase the private 71 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 1: market allocations they've had in the past. Just sort of 72 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: a long long list of debates that they're having in 73 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: a way frankly that we haven't heard from them for 74 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 1: a long, long period of time. You know, Mark, in 75 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: the intro, I mentioned that, as you mentioned in your notes, 76 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 1: it sure does look like equity markets at least are 77 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 1: pracing in a soft landing. Here reading the restaur notes, 78 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: I'm not convinced you believe they're right. Could this rally 79 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 1: be a big head fake? Do you think? Yeah? I 80 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:33,280 Speaker 1: think the risk reward inequities is very, very tough at 81 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 1: the moment because, as you say, they're effectively implying that 82 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: the FED does manage to navigate this and land things perfectly. 83 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: They've got an incredibly difficult job on their hands. I 84 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:45,839 Speaker 1: definitely wouldn't want to be in their shoes right now, 85 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 1: because you've got very material risks both sides, and indeed 86 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: you've now got financial stability coming up as a third 87 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: dress that frankly I wasn't thinking about six months previously. 88 00:04:57,360 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 1: But the standard ones, which clearly have been the ones 89 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:02,280 Speaker 1: on their mind for most of this period, are Okay, 90 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: we do think we're going to cause a drop in 91 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 1: economic growth, but can we time that perfectly? Can we 92 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:12,159 Speaker 1: have a mild recession without you know, major major job losses? 93 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 1: At every time, you know, you hear him stand up, 94 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 1: he does make the point of it's better to take 95 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 1: pain now, otherwise it's worse long term. They understand what 96 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 1: they're doing, they understand the potential consequences. Can they get 97 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 1: the dial right there? And you know, economies are not 98 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 1: things where the dials work desperately well. And the sort 99 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: of feedback from what you do to how they behave 100 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: as that perfect and then clearly the brisk the other side, 101 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 1: which again you know they've been talking about previously. If 102 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:41,520 Speaker 1: they're sustained inflation, they have to get it back to 103 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 1: two percent. That is their mandate. They will have to 104 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: be high for longer if it doesn't move down. And 105 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 1: the path between those two things is pretty hard. And 106 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: then to throw the third problem in which we've obviously 107 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 1: seen in the last month or so, is okay, do 108 00:05:57,279 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: we put enough stress in the financial system here that 109 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: they suddenly have to start worrying about financial stability? Is 110 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 1: the you know, the other piece of their mandate that 111 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 1: has been in the background for most of the lost 112 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 1: eighteen months or so and then suddenly came very very aggressively. 113 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 1: Interview with SVB, I do not envy him his job 114 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:18,039 Speaker 1: at the moment. I certainly don't. I don't think any 115 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:23,839 Speaker 1: I really don't. You say you're expecting more volatility ahead, Like, 116 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: what are you expecting? What are you expecting from the Fed? 117 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 1: I've read some interesting notes from some of the big 118 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: banks this week. One of them said, when they're talking 119 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:35,040 Speaker 1: to clients, well, clients says they're sort of frustrated with 120 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: the rally that we've seen in stocks. I guess if 121 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: you were not positioned for it, you'd be frustrated with 122 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 1: So what are you expecting going forward? Yeah, I think, 123 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:46,480 Speaker 1: I mean, I think equities difficult because we haven't really 124 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:49,919 Speaker 1: seen the cut in earnings und some drift down in 125 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 1: earnings expectations, but nothing too material. So that's definitely one leg, 126 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:57,039 Speaker 1: which is just the fundamental piece, and then the other 127 00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 1: is just a flow piece. You know, we are starting 128 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 1: to see people move back obviously money markets out of banks, 129 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: but also into credit and government bond positions in a 130 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 1: way that they just haven't had for years because there 131 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 1: hasn't been enough return there to attract people. So whether 132 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 1: that's the consumer or whether that's big institutional clients starting 133 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 1: to come back to an asset class that frankly had 134 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 1: fallen relatively out of favor. And some of that flow 135 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 1: of funds is also an issue for equities. There's just 136 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 1: people move money around. So I think it's, as I said, 137 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 1: it's a tough tight rope to walk if you look 138 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 1: at equities right now. I think there's plenty of other 139 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: places where you can get comfortable returns without the same 140 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 1: risk profile. And I think you're seeing plenty of people 141 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 1: make some of those allocation moves. The US is obviously 142 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 1: a bit of an outline, and that the balance is 143 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: a bit better in some other markets. The SMP is 144 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 1: remarkably calm in the face of everything we've seen recently. Mark, 145 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 1: there's some comments from your colleague Lucallis, the CEO of 146 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 1: Man Group, a few weeks ago that really sort of 147 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: clop my eye. One thing he said was, such banks 148 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: will have to break stuff to tame inflation. I think 149 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:06,080 Speaker 1: the mission accomplished there to some degree. I don't think 150 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 1: that's what they thought they were going to break exactly. 151 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: You'd never quite know what's going to break. But he 152 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 1: also said a significant number of banks won't exist in 153 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: twelve to twenty four months. And we have not seen 154 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 1: the lows in equities this cycle. Now, these comments were 155 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks old. A lot has changed. It 156 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 1: seems like the fire in the US regional banking system 157 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 1: knock on wood, if it's not completely put out, it's 158 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 1: not raging like it once was. The reaction from the 159 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:38,439 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve, the FDIC was very aggressive, you know, was 160 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 1: that sort of the house view there about you know, 161 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 1: the banking system being bracing for more failures. Has anything 162 00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 1: changed about that? How are you thinking about the state 163 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 1: of the banking system. I think he was talking at 164 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: a point when the market was pretty fee bro. Yeah, 165 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 1: in full. What he's actually talking about is, Look, there's 166 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 1: the US regional banks, in particular, the US as an 167 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 1: incredible number of banks compared to virtually every other major market. 168 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 1: There's obviously stress amongst them. There's likely to be consolidation 169 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 1: as some of the stronger players take on some of 170 00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: the weaker players. We've obviously seen the extreme version of that, 171 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:15,560 Speaker 1: where it's been via fdoc rescues and then reseales, But 172 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 1: just more generally you would expect to see consolidation. Then 173 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: maybe some failures. Banks do fail, that's part of the 174 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 1: nature of the business model, but it was a much 175 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 1: It was much more around the banking system generally either 176 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: consolidating or maybe some going out of business. We did 177 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 1: we did manage to trigger a comment from the Bank 178 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 1: of England saying that they were comfortable with the banking 179 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 1: system off the back of that. So that was definitely 180 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:45,560 Speaker 1: not an intended effect and maybe slightly taken out of 181 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 1: context in a market where everyone was feeling a little 182 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:50,959 Speaker 1: bit more scared than they are today. Yeah, but no, 183 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 1: we I mean, look, there's definitely still some stress in 184 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 1: the banking system. And I saw some of the big 185 00:09:57,040 --> 00:10:01,079 Speaker 1: investment bank defaults back sort of post in the financial crisis, 186 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 1: and I remember telling people post that, look, the key 187 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 1: thing is not to be there if there's a default 188 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 1: of a bank, And that was the lesson that I 189 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 1: thought everyone had learned in OA, and I spent years 190 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:13,440 Speaker 1: telling everyone when we get bank runs in future, they're 191 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: going to be faster because everyone's going to remember O eight. 192 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 1: And it turned a bit into the sort of horror 193 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 1: story by the fire, because we didn't have very many 194 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 1: defaults in banks for a long period of time, and 195 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:28,840 Speaker 1: then we just saw obviously the speed recently, which frankly, 196 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: even though I was expecting bank runs to be faster, 197 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 1: I was amazed at how fast really quite big institutions 198 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:41,440 Speaker 1: went from functioning to into FDIC hands. So SVB obviously 199 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 1: is the one that people focused on. I actually think 200 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 1: signature is the more interesting one in some ways, where 201 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 1: there was almost no noise because everyone was focused on SVB, 202 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 1: and then it was gone over the weekend, which is 203 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 1: a remarkable sign of the speed of liquidity withdrawal in 204 00:10:57,160 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 1: the current world. I wanted to ask you about that. Actually, 205 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 1: I wanted to ask you about the speed with which 206 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: we saw some of these bank rounds actually happen. And 207 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 1: obviously we have had some weeks go by, and we've 208 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 1: had some retrospective and lots of news reports about what 209 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: actually happened and how, you know, different tech figures, we're 210 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 1: talking to each other in different chat groups and whatever else. 211 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:23,800 Speaker 1: Can you characterize what happened and sort of the astoundingness 212 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:26,840 Speaker 1: at which and the speed at which had happened. I mean, 213 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 1: it is just classic bank runs, So it's it's just 214 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 1: liquidity withdrawal and banks a levied institutions, and you know 215 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 1: they can't cope with some level of liquidity withdrawal. The 216 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:40,560 Speaker 1: thing that's different, it's clearly the sheer speed of which 217 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:44,359 Speaker 1: it happened. And as I say, all of the stories, 218 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 1: you know, the press commentary is around SVB and the 219 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 1: concentration of the client base there, and you know, effectively 220 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:55,320 Speaker 1: did they create their own bank run? But then go 221 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: look at signature where it's not obvious that any of 222 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 1: that was happening, but exactly the same thing happened at 223 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: very very high speed. You know, look at the money 224 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 1: coming out of credits we set great speed. Again, that's 225 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: not coordinated action, that's just people reading press reports, and 226 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:14,360 Speaker 1: the world is much more attuned to some of this information. Clearly, 227 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 1: generally financial information percolates far far faster than it used to. 228 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:21,959 Speaker 1: But I don't think if you look at the set 229 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 1: of them, I don't think you can say it's sort 230 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:26,960 Speaker 1: of specifically a social media thing, or a concentrated set 231 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 1: of clients thing, or a tech thing, because that's not 232 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:34,320 Speaker 1: the case with the other institutions that ran into liquidity issues. 233 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:38,679 Speaker 1: I think it's much more around general speed of information 234 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:42,520 Speaker 1: flow combined with frankly, just a classic tail risk with 235 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 1: banking as a business model, which is bank runs happen, 236 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:51,560 Speaker 1: They will happen again. They've happened for decades. I'm not 237 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 1: sure when the first one wards, but it won't have 238 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:57,440 Speaker 1: been that long after the first bank was started. That's 239 00:12:57,440 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 1: probably true. Mark. I wanted to talk about sort of 240 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 1: the climate of the hedge fund industry itself, you know, 241 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 1: sort of a mixed year in twenty twenty two for 242 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:16,439 Speaker 1: a lot of funds. CTA's trend following funds did did 243 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: very well. There were a lot of outflows from some funds. 244 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 1: Madgroup actually managed to book about more than three billion 245 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 1: dollars worth of inflows. And I was looking at some 246 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:31,680 Speaker 1: of the better performing funds. The HL Diversified Fund was 247 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 1: up more than thirteen percent, HL Alpha up eleven percent. Now, 248 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:38,480 Speaker 1: of course, some of the long and only strategies, it 249 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 1: was tough to post a positive return last year given 250 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 1: the markets, but pretty impressive returns for some of these 251 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 1: AHL funds. What if you could break down for us 252 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:51,839 Speaker 1: what worked? Is it to oversimplify it, to just call 253 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 1: it trend following with some of these strategies. Is there 254 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: more going on or was that really a big part 255 00:13:56,760 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 1: of it? Trend fulling was definitely a big driver. So 256 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: I think systematic funds did very well last year. In 257 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 1: macro markets, there were some big trends to invest in, 258 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 1: so some of the commodities moves at the start. Obviously 259 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 1: the bond moves throughout the dollar move was a big 260 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: positive contributor. So there were plenty of places for positive 261 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 1: returns to be had, and CTAs are very good at 262 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 1: capturing those sorts of macro moves. And I think when 263 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 1: you so when you step back, we've had this very 264 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 1: prolonged period where all developed markets have basically been doing 265 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 1: the same things with interest rate policy. There's been this 266 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 1: very very high correlation, and then that's clearly pushed into 267 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 1: a bunch of other asset classes. It's generally dampened volatility down, 268 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 1: it's increased correlation. It's been quite a tough environment for alpha, 269 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: or at least there's less opportunities than you would sort 270 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 1: of normally have seen pre that period of very very 271 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: low interest rates. What we're moving back into now is 272 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 1: something that's much more into O eight. So you've seen 273 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 1: I mean, actually equity vole hasn't increased in the same way, 274 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 1: but in a lot of other ethic classes you've seen 275 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 1: quite material step ups, whether it's that in fixed income 276 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: or in commodities or in currencies. You know, there's a 277 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 1: lot more going on. There's a lot more differentiation in 278 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 1: how countries are managing their interest rates because of some 279 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 1: of the core macroeconomic differences between them, where inflation is, 280 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: where energy policy is, in each of those places, strength 281 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 1: at the job market. That's exactly the sort of environment 282 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: that suits some of these macro strategies. Over time, because 283 00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 1: there's just a lot more opportunity. There's the risk management 284 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: skills are a lot more relevant when things are moving 285 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: around in that sort of a way. So, yeah, trends 286 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 1: were absolutely critical to a lot of the strong outline 287 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 1: returns last year. But we think that environment is going 288 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 1: to persist, and frankly, it feels like that's the future 289 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 1: decades going to be a lot more like that rather 290 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 1: than just the next year or so. Really, so twenty 291 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 1: twenty three will another good year for trend follow me 292 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 1: think I mean individual, I mean that the last month 293 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 1: or so it's been tougher for trend followers specifically because 294 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 1: of the interest rate moves post SVB. That's in the 295 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 1: nature of the strategy. You will have some difficult periods. 296 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 1: They work over time, but it's a higher volatility and 297 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 1: lower correlation between things, so at some level, just much 298 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 1: more macro uncertainty in the sort of simplified way of 299 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 1: putting that, that's the environment when you want strategies which 300 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:31,440 Speaker 1: can help you navigate that uncertainty, And that at heart 301 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: is what trend followers are very good at doing over time, 302 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 1: and I think we who knows in twenty years, thirty years, time, 303 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 1: I suspect we'll look back now and go the previous 304 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 1: ten years with the outlier rather than the other way around. Okay, 305 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 1: and you said there's a bigger opportunity set for alpha 306 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 1: than over the last decade one interest rates where near zero. 307 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 1: Can you talk about what you mean by that? Yeah, 308 00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 1: I mean it's it's because of that higher volatility, So 309 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 1: there's more there's more risk in markets, which if you've 310 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 1: got skill, is the opportunity set obvious. You've got to 311 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 1: have the skill in the first place. Similarly, within equities, 312 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 1: you know, there's more dispersion within equities than they have 313 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 1: been for a prolonged period of time. Again, if you 314 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,920 Speaker 1: are good making those investment choices, that's a great environment 315 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:18,119 Speaker 1: for you because there's just a bigger opportunity to make 316 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,119 Speaker 1: money for your clients. You've got to have the skill. 317 00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:25,439 Speaker 1: Otherwise it's just risk with out the positive return. So 318 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 1: I think it's it's sort of a more difficult environment 319 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 1: because the risk is higher. But where you've got expertise, 320 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 1: that's what you want. You know, our job is to 321 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:36,400 Speaker 1: take risk on behalf of clients when there's more opportunities 322 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,120 Speaker 1: in the world. Because it's a riskier period, you can 323 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:42,639 Speaker 1: add more benefit to them, and that's that's definitely what 324 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:44,600 Speaker 1: we're looking to do from here. I think what he's 325 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 1: trying to say is he has the skill the firm. 326 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,200 Speaker 1: There's a there's a one and a half thousand double 327 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 1: PhDs and the like sitting around me who definitely have 328 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 1: the skills. You got to call him doctor, doctor. Doctor. 329 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 1: We do have some gen you in rocket scientists, so 330 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: on any day that you're feeling small at yourself, you 331 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: can just go talk to someone and if you immediately 332 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:10,199 Speaker 1: feel a lot smaller. So I always joke about this. 333 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: It's amazing how many actual rocket scientists find their way 334 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:18,680 Speaker 1: into investing, and yeah, quant we've interviewed some of them. Mark. 335 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 1: I think one really sort of interesting sea change that 336 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:26,400 Speaker 1: we saw this year with Silicon Valley Bank is a 337 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 1: greater focus on private markets venture capital, especially in Silicon Valley, 338 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 1: and sort of this notion that boy, they had a 339 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,879 Speaker 1: great run. There was so much sort of interest in 340 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 1: private markets that almost seems to me like the end 341 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 1: of an era once Silicon Valley Bank broke. I mean, 342 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 1: is is that an exaggeration? Do you think? I mean, 343 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 1: was that whole private market craze a low interest rate phenomenon. 344 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:01,199 Speaker 1: I mean, is has this has every changed now for 345 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:06,919 Speaker 1: say private versus public the appeal of each type of investment. Yeah. So, 346 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:10,119 Speaker 1: I mean we've obviously had this huge trend in asset 347 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:13,360 Speaker 1: management for I mean, it's more than a decade old now, 348 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:18,160 Speaker 1: arguably too of increased allocation into private markets over time 349 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,680 Speaker 1: from the big asset owners, and the period of low 350 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 1: interest rates definitely helped that trend because you just had 351 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 1: to go somewhere you for returns them rather than the 352 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: traditional asset classes. I don't think we're going to see 353 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 1: some huge pivot away from that, because there's a lot 354 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,800 Speaker 1: of money allocated and you can't pull it out quickly. 355 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,960 Speaker 1: It takes time. Plus frankly, they are useful sources of 356 00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:46,119 Speaker 1: returning people's portfolio. But I do think the speed of 357 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:49,360 Speaker 1: that trend is definitely, at a minimum going to slow down, 358 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:50,880 Speaker 1: and I think for a lot of people they're going 359 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 1: to tilt back towards public markets for the first time 360 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 1: in really quite a long time, because it's been relatively 361 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 1: inexorable of adding to their private allocations year by year 362 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 1: by year. And that's for a couple of reasons. One 363 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 1: some of the stuff that we touched on earlier, where 364 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: there's actually there's more return from some traditional asset classes, 365 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:11,119 Speaker 1: in particular on the fixed income side, So people go, actually, 366 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: I don't need to reach out on the risk spectrum. 367 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 1: I can meet my investment goals with some much more 368 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:21,360 Speaker 1: traditional returns, investment grade, credit, whatever it may be. And 369 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,159 Speaker 1: they're much happier if they can do that in a 370 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,920 Speaker 1: lower risk way and meet whatever their their retirees obligations 371 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 1: or whatever their responsibilities are. And so that piece definitely 372 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 1: is a big driver. And then I think the other 373 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 1: thing is we saw the benefit of liquidity. The UK 374 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 1: obviously had a relatively spectacular blow up in the guilt 375 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:47,159 Speaker 1: market last year. You had clients who suddenly had a 376 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 1: very very strong liquidity need to meet that big, big 377 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: market move, and they were having to sell assets to 378 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: meet cash calls. And suddenly that reminder of things that 379 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 1: I can liquidated if I need it in a crisis, 380 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 1: and the value of that so I'm not a force 381 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 1: seller of something else. We'd sort of forgotten that as 382 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 1: a key benefit of liquidity, but I think we've had 383 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 1: a few reminders in some of the sort of panic 384 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,600 Speaker 1: periods of that benefit of more liquid assets. So both 385 00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 1: for a risk management piece of balanced piece and a 386 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 1: course sort of return piece, I think you're going to 387 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 1: see tilts bag. Private markets are well established as parts 388 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,199 Speaker 1: of investor's portfolios. It's not that they're just going to 389 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 1: drop them, but I think the speed of growth is 390 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 1: going to change. Okay, So if we are seeing a 391 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: tilt back towards more liquid assets, where do you already 392 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 1: or maybe where are you foreseeing that money actually going 393 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 1: from our business? Clearly the head fund business is a 394 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,399 Speaker 1: big part of what we do, and some of the 395 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 1: systematic strategies, in particular macrosystematic strategy. I think people are 396 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 1: looking at again this clearly saw them had a good 397 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,439 Speaker 1: year last year, and I think they agree with what 398 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 1: I've just discussed around the environment suiting those sorts of 399 00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 1: strategies and needing something nimble to help them move around. 400 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:05,120 Speaker 1: So strategies that are able to take macro risk successfully 401 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,879 Speaker 1: on behalf of clients. That's definitely a big source of demand. 402 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:13,600 Speaker 1: Liquid alternatives as well, so sources returned that are equity 403 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:15,679 Speaker 1: or bonds, but again that you can liquidate if you 404 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 1: need them, so you get that protection in the portfolio 405 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 1: and then frankly just playing vanilla fixed income at whatever 406 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:25,959 Speaker 1: risk level people are looking at, you know, whether it's 407 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 1: high yield or investment grade or not so much of 408 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,760 Speaker 1: our business. But guveyes, I think people are definitely coming 409 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 1: back to just because it works now. It's not for 410 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 1: a long period it was all risk and no reward. 411 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:40,120 Speaker 1: We just sort the risk materialized last year, but you've 412 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,159 Speaker 1: now got back to an environment where there's actually some 413 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,399 Speaker 1: reward again, so you can make a plausible case for 414 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 1: it being a bigger part of a portfolio. So a 415 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:54,800 Speaker 1: mix of liquid alternatives, particularly systematic macro, and then some 416 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 1: core fixed income in particular that I think people are 417 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,119 Speaker 1: coming back two off to a number of years of 418 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:05,160 Speaker 1: not really being focused on it, right, I mean when 419 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 1: you can get yielded a money market fund these days. Uh, 420 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 1: it's it's such a dramatic change of climate from what 421 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,240 Speaker 1: we're used to in the you know, the post TFC 422 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 1: ere It's it's pretty amazing really. But Mark I used 423 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 1: to joke last year that they passed a law that 424 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 1: every podcast guests had to talk about inflation. Um, yeah, 425 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:33,159 Speaker 1: this year's done that. Yeah, this year. I think the 426 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 1: law is that you have to talk about AI at 427 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,560 Speaker 1: some level, and I feel like, you know, at some 428 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 1: level you must have some rocket scientists already in the firm, 429 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:48,480 Speaker 1: uh using AI. But I'm curious how you're thinking about it. 430 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,399 Speaker 1: You know, obviously this chat chept sort of caught the 431 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:56,080 Speaker 1: world by storm and has everybody wondering about how AI 432 00:23:56,200 --> 00:24:00,200 Speaker 1: is going to be used in all industries, but investing especially. 433 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 1: I'm curious if it made as big of a splash 434 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 1: in your world, is there a bigger focus on AI 435 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: now because of this, And if you could tell us 436 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,920 Speaker 1: you know, where you see it going as an investment tool, 437 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,000 Speaker 1: and maybe a little bit about how you're using it 438 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:16,919 Speaker 1: now if it are. I mean, look machine learning as 439 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 1: we would have called it, but AI and the sort 440 00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,679 Speaker 1: of popular vernacular that's been a big part of some 441 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,119 Speaker 1: of the research efforts here for a number of years. 442 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:28,640 Speaker 1: You know, we use those techniques in various of the strategies. 443 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,879 Speaker 1: You've got to be an expert to deploy it successfully. 444 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,320 Speaker 1: In finance though, in terms of running money, naive approaches 445 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 1: are very dangerous frankly, so you need the human expertise 446 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:45,120 Speaker 1: alongside some of those techniques. The bit that the entire 447 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 1: world has got wealthy excited about over the last couple 448 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,719 Speaker 1: of weeks, so some of the generative AI. I actually 449 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,040 Speaker 1: think he's one of the first times that the hype 450 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 1: is appropriate against the technology. So whether that's useful in 451 00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:00,879 Speaker 1: the pure investment decision side, that's definitely to be determined. 452 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:04,000 Speaker 1: But in our wider business using that as a way 453 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,960 Speaker 1: to help people do all manner of commercial tasks that 454 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:12,080 Speaker 1: we need, in commercial processes that we need, absolutely, you know, 455 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,000 Speaker 1: we clearly want people experimenting across the whole business of 456 00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 1: figuring out how can I use this to make myself 457 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,840 Speaker 1: more productive. I think you're going to see that, frankly, 458 00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:25,160 Speaker 1: in almost all industries because it really is a remarkable 459 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 1: step forward on the technology side. And I say that 460 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:33,720 Speaker 1: normally when these things come out, my view is, Okay, 461 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 1: let's wait and see. Everyone always over hypes them and 462 00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:40,240 Speaker 1: says innovation is always increasing. Doesn't show up in the 463 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,520 Speaker 1: productivity to statistics at the government level, So I'll believe 464 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,000 Speaker 1: it when I see it. This one, I genuinely think 465 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 1: is going to have a big impact across most of 466 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,239 Speaker 1: the business world as people figure out how to deploy it. 467 00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 1: Right interesting our podcasts, Okay, I think you are safe. 468 00:25:57,600 --> 00:25:59,359 Speaker 1: I think I saw some report from one of the 469 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 1: sales side which was listing jobs that were at risk, 470 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:08,399 Speaker 1: and they've missed cell site research report writers somewhere. Maybe 471 00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:26,080 Speaker 1: that was not a mistake. The other thing I think 472 00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,119 Speaker 1: they're probably gonna pass a law that we have to 473 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,879 Speaker 1: talk about is commercial real estate and the credit cycle. 474 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,840 Speaker 1: I mean this banking and I you know, I don't 475 00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,119 Speaker 1: know if he really should use the word crisis. You know, 476 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,399 Speaker 1: what's so unusual, Mark is to have this banking turbulence. 477 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:44,160 Speaker 1: We'll call it triggered by interest rate risk and deposit 478 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:48,920 Speaker 1: flows rather than credit. You know, but I do feel 479 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 1: like the focus now is shifting towards especially that in 480 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:55,960 Speaker 1: the US, and problem I'm sure in the UK to 481 00:26:56,200 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 1: the commercial real estate office reads here in the US, 482 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 1: how are you thinking about the credit market? Has it? 483 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,879 Speaker 1: I mean, is that the next candidate to look for 484 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,080 Speaker 1: as far as the central banks breaking something? I mean, 485 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,159 Speaker 1: is that the next shooter draft? Do you think? I 486 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:18,480 Speaker 1: think we've got a bit of time because most large 487 00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:21,960 Speaker 1: sort of segments of borrowers took the opportunity to push 488 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,879 Speaker 1: maturity out when rates were so low. I mean obviously 489 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:27,679 Speaker 1: saw that on the consumer side with a bunch of 490 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 1: the refinancing mortgages in the US, you saw it quite 491 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,320 Speaker 1: a lot on the corporate sideway. There's really not much 492 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,880 Speaker 1: in maturities this year or even that much next year. 493 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 1: And similarly on the real estate side, because interest rates 494 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:43,560 Speaker 1: were very attractive and you were asleep at the wheel 495 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,240 Speaker 1: if you weren't doing something in credit at that point 496 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 1: in time. The bit that we're worried about mid term 497 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 1: is okay, But if you had to refinance now, how 498 00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 1: many of those businesses can actually cope with where the 499 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:03,520 Speaker 1: interest coupe would be, whether that's real estate, whether that's 500 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:05,560 Speaker 1: the consumer, whether that's some of the sort of highly 501 00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:09,119 Speaker 1: leveed corporates. And I'm sure there are all sorts of 502 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 1: people sitting in various offices around the US and the 503 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 1: wider world sweating and hoping that interest rates come down 504 00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,880 Speaker 1: considerably before they have to do that trade, because there 505 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,120 Speaker 1: will be a lot of assets that need a new 506 00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,440 Speaker 1: capital structure at that point in time, and they'll either 507 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:29,000 Speaker 1: need an equity injection or they'll need some very beneficial 508 00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:32,359 Speaker 1: credit provider. But I don't think it's near term because 509 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 1: the maturity dates are just they're far enough away. People 510 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 1: are going to have to start looking at it next year, 511 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,760 Speaker 1: maybe the back end of this year some people. But 512 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:43,960 Speaker 1: we've still got a reasonable period of time and their 513 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:47,160 Speaker 1: most credits are still quite healthy at the moment. You know, 514 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:50,600 Speaker 1: I wonder if trying to raise capital on the equity market, 515 00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 1: as Silicon Valley Bank trying to do is sort of 516 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 1: radioactive this year. Yeah, I mean, obviously the most large 517 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 1: sort of equity markets are relatively shut for new issuance. 518 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,040 Speaker 1: Some secondary stuff's getting done, but not at anything like 519 00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:09,320 Speaker 1: the volume that you would need if interest rates stay here, 520 00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 1: and you're just going to need equity going into quite 521 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,920 Speaker 1: a lot of asset classes to improve the cap structures. 522 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 1: So I mean, look, there's a lot that's going to 523 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,040 Speaker 1: have to be done in quite a few markets. I 524 00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 1: just think we're twelve months away from it, probably. But 525 00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:24,320 Speaker 1: so what everybody's talking about is a credit crunch or 526 00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 1: a credit tightening. I'm wondering if you think there's a 527 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 1: difference between the two, or like what the more severe 528 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:33,400 Speaker 1: scenario might look like. Yeah, I think i'd normally distinguish 529 00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 1: the two. A sort of credit crunch is just the 530 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:39,280 Speaker 1: absence of provision. You just can't get things done or 531 00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 1: there's no sort of clearing price where things can get done. 532 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,920 Speaker 1: That's when you just get large default waves. And I 533 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 1: think it's it's just hard to tell right now where 534 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 1: that's going to be, because it is going to be 535 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:53,600 Speaker 1: so much around where credit and rates are. In twelve 536 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:57,600 Speaker 1: months forward. If things stay here, I think you're going 537 00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,120 Speaker 1: to have a decent pickup in defaults. And I say 538 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,160 Speaker 1: that as someone who's heard about a default wave coming 539 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,719 Speaker 1: for ten years and it's just never turned up. And 540 00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 1: the view that distressed debt is the place to be 541 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,000 Speaker 1: on the sort of hedge fund strategy side, and actually 542 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,080 Speaker 1: the opportunity has been relatively limited. But I do think 543 00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:16,640 Speaker 1: we're getting to that point where you know, when you 544 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:18,800 Speaker 1: hear the FED talk about the lag effect of interest 545 00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 1: rates into the economy, that's part of what they're talking 546 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,880 Speaker 1: about is, well, people can hunker down and they've got 547 00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,320 Speaker 1: fixed rates. It doesn't bite them, it doesn't hit their 548 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:29,200 Speaker 1: cash flow. They kind of know it's coming and maybe 549 00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 1: they change their behavior a little bit, but where they're 550 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:35,560 Speaker 1: not actually paying the higher coupon, it's not fully in 551 00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:39,160 Speaker 1: their behavior. When you've actually got to refinance and figure 552 00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,040 Speaker 1: out what you do. Whether you're a consumer and you've 553 00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:44,520 Speaker 1: got your mortgage coming up, or you're a corporate and 554 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:45,800 Speaker 1: you go, okay, do I have to look at my 555 00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:47,720 Speaker 1: cost structure because I've now going to make this higher 556 00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:52,520 Speaker 1: interest payment. That's really when it bites. And I don't 557 00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:56,920 Speaker 1: think we've seen most people respond, whether that's corporate's real 558 00:30:57,040 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 1: estate consumer to that move yet, because it hasn't. Actually 559 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 1: she started to hit that pocket. Mark Jones, Deputy CEO 560 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:07,000 Speaker 1: of Man Group, joining us from London. Such a pleasure 561 00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,040 Speaker 1: to catch up with you, Mark and hear your thoughts 562 00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:12,360 Speaker 1: on the market. Really fascinating. We can't let you go 563 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,960 Speaker 1: just yet, though. We do have a tradition here the 564 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 1: craziest things we saw in markets this week. I have 565 00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:21,280 Speaker 1: a good one. You got a good one. Yeah, let's 566 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 1: hear it. I'm sure you saw it. Dogecoin rose thirty 567 00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,880 Speaker 1: percent because the Alla must put a picture of the 568 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:33,360 Speaker 1: little doggie on the Twitter homepage, and I looked. I 569 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 1: went on Twitter and I found it. Yeah, I have 570 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,520 Speaker 1: it on money. It's just a little happy dog. I 571 00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:43,360 Speaker 1: don't get it. I don't, Yeah, Mark, I assume Man 572 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:48,400 Speaker 1: is not exposed the dogecoin and not that I'm aware of. 573 00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:51,280 Speaker 1: I'm sure someone has some. Someone's got some in their 574 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,520 Speaker 1: private account. How about you mark you see anything crazy 575 00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,760 Speaker 1: in markets recently? I was. I was thinking about that 576 00:31:57,800 --> 00:31:59,959 Speaker 1: as you asked the question, and it's the old thing 577 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,280 Speaker 1: about this week is having had a bunch of things 578 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:05,160 Speaker 1: that sort of eight on the Richter scale last week 579 00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:09,240 Speaker 1: was to borrow a quote from Sherlock Holmes, it felt 580 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:12,480 Speaker 1: like the dog that didn't bob. It was a remarkably 581 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:17,160 Speaker 1: quiet week in markets, given quite how dramatic things were previously, 582 00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:20,959 Speaker 1: So almost the thing that was most have noticed how 583 00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:24,080 Speaker 1: little happened, given how chaotic it was prior to that. 584 00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,240 Speaker 1: I think the thing I thought was most interesting as 585 00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,560 Speaker 1: someone who runs a financial services institution was just seeing 586 00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,960 Speaker 1: the change in CEO at ubs as they start to 587 00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:37,560 Speaker 1: go through what will be an absolutely enormous change project there, 588 00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:40,840 Speaker 1: and just interesting to see that shift back to the 589 00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,560 Speaker 1: previous CEO but actual market booths. Genuinely, I think the 590 00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:48,160 Speaker 1: absence of anything dramatic was the most striking thing last week. 591 00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,320 Speaker 1: I love the Sherlock Holmes quote the dog that didn't 592 00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,040 Speaker 1: park it. If I remember that was because the thief 593 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,360 Speaker 1: was the owner of the dog. Is there it spoiler 594 00:32:56,640 --> 00:33:01,200 Speaker 1: something it's I think it's I read to my son recently. 595 00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 1: I think it's because the dog doesn't balk. You know, 596 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:10,560 Speaker 1: somebody didn't go past if I remember correctly, don't. I know, 597 00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:12,440 Speaker 1: we've had a hundred years to read it, but don't. 598 00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,840 Speaker 1: All right, it's about a horse being stolen, but I 599 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:20,440 Speaker 1: forget the details. I know, I'm trying to remember it. 600 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,800 Speaker 1: I think, yeah, it's either that, Yeah, well, we're not 601 00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:27,280 Speaker 1: going to figure it out here, but a good quote. Nonetheless, 602 00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,200 Speaker 1: it kind of makes me worried that the dog wasn't 603 00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:32,480 Speaker 1: parking in markets last week. I feel like that's that's 604 00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:36,320 Speaker 1: an ominous sign. Yeah, but all right, my crazy thing 605 00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:39,840 Speaker 1: also somewhat involves some good British fiction for you. I 606 00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:44,640 Speaker 1: know your favorite bil Donna is a quote unquote Taddy 607 00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:50,160 Speaker 1: first edition of Harry Potter The Philosopher's Stone, Taddy meaning 608 00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,040 Speaker 1: it's just it's a mess. I guess it's lacking a spine. 609 00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:57,760 Speaker 1: Protective plastic was peeled off, pages were yellowed. But it 610 00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:00,760 Speaker 1: is one of the first edition hard acts. There are 611 00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:04,240 Speaker 1: only five hundred first editions of that book printed, three 612 00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,480 Speaker 1: hundred one to local libraries, so this is somewhat rare, 613 00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,600 Speaker 1: but I'm gonna make it harder, okay, because we're gonna 614 00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:15,680 Speaker 1: play prices precise mark you're ready. I thought this had 615 00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:20,560 Speaker 1: something to do with MTV. That's the other items, okay. 616 00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:26,440 Speaker 1: A giant gong used on MTVu Tina Turner actually stood 617 00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:28,759 Speaker 1: upside down and banged it with her feet one time, 618 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,759 Speaker 1: if that helps you. That sold at auction according to 619 00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:36,040 Speaker 1: the New York Post and according to the BBC, A 620 00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:39,760 Speaker 1: whiskey collection rescued by divers from one hundred and twenty 621 00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:44,520 Speaker 1: eight year old shipwreck, the SS Wallachia, sank in the 622 00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:47,560 Speaker 1: Firth of Clyde in eighteen ninety five while carrying a 623 00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:53,400 Speaker 1: collection of whiskey in beer. Wilkinson's famous liquor Whiskey was 624 00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:57,040 Speaker 1: recovered from the wreck. So it's time to play the game. 625 00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:01,200 Speaker 1: Show what fetched the highest price at auction and give 626 00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:06,440 Speaker 1: me your estimate? Was it? A the giant gong on MTV? 627 00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:10,320 Speaker 1: The Taddy first edition of Harry Potter and the Philosopher's 628 00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:15,759 Speaker 1: Stone or seven bottles and half bottles so summer, half 629 00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:18,960 Speaker 1: bottles and one bottle of beer. Actually McEwan's export beer 630 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:24,359 Speaker 1: was also recovered in this whiskey collection. Rescued from one 631 00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,560 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty eight year old shipwreck. Okay, I know 632 00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:31,239 Speaker 1: what I'm going. I'm definitely going with the whiskey. Not 633 00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:33,040 Speaker 1: that I like the word taddy, but I can't go 634 00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:36,960 Speaker 1: with that. Definitely the whiskey. And what's your your dollar figure, 635 00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:40,439 Speaker 1: pound figure, my pound figure? Okay, I'm gonna go with 636 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,800 Speaker 1: seven hundred and fifty thousand pounds, seven hundred and fifty 637 00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:49,160 Speaker 1: thousand pounds for one hundred and twenty eight year old shipwreck. Hiskey. 638 00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,680 Speaker 1: That's cool, you know, like people like whiskey, but also 639 00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:56,600 Speaker 1: it has a nice story. Yeah, all right, Mark, as 640 00:35:56,680 --> 00:36:00,359 Speaker 1: a expert in valuations, Well, firstly, I'd like to sell 641 00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:07,720 Speaker 1: you some Whiskey's got a few bottles to download. Hopefully 642 00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:09,320 Speaker 1: no one paid too much for the one hundred and 643 00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,240 Speaker 1: twenty eight year old bottle of beer on the side. 644 00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,200 Speaker 1: That's hard. I think I'll go with Harry Potter. Harry 645 00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,719 Speaker 1: think it's going to be a lot lower. Yeah, what's 646 00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:24,440 Speaker 1: your price tag on Harry Potter? One fifty thousand, one 647 00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:28,759 Speaker 1: fifty thousand pounds. You guys are very generous bidders, I 648 00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:32,080 Speaker 1: will say, Mark wins. Wow, it was the Harry Potter 649 00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:34,239 Speaker 1: I can't. I gave you a Harry Potter book and 650 00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:38,080 Speaker 1: you I didn't choose it. It's sold for twenty thousand, 651 00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,919 Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty pounds about twenty five thousand dollars. 652 00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,239 Speaker 1: It was taddy though, all right. The giant gun used 653 00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,880 Speaker 1: on MTV sold for fifteen thousand, three hundred. Now you 654 00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:51,160 Speaker 1: could be right about the whiskey because it hasn't sold yet. 655 00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:55,839 Speaker 1: This is it's estimated to sell for three to four thousands. 656 00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:59,399 Speaker 1: For the whole collection, it's about five thousand. So maybe 657 00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:05,280 Speaker 1: come and comes in and bids it up. But listeners 658 00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,960 Speaker 1: of what goes up, go out there and bid this 659 00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:10,680 Speaker 1: thing up. Yeah, you can sell me some books and 660 00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:14,279 Speaker 1: I'll sell you some whiskey. Well, the problem with one 661 00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:18,040 Speaker 1: hundred and whatever year old whiskey that was picked up 662 00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:20,200 Speaker 1: from the bottom of the ocean is it's got a 663 00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:23,359 Speaker 1: great story, but it tastes terrible. I think I have 664 00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:26,320 Speaker 1: no idea. The beer I wouldn't touch, but the whiskey 665 00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:31,440 Speaker 1: I have no clue. I don't even like whiskey. Work. 666 00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:34,800 Speaker 1: Mark Jones, I think just proved why he is deputy 667 00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:38,680 Speaker 1: and I'm not the top priced asset. What he hears 668 00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:43,560 Speaker 1: it yeah, and he'll be setting some collections of his 669 00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:48,560 Speaker 1: whiskey to you. Yeah. All right, great to catch up 670 00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:50,160 Speaker 1: with you. I hope we can have you back some days. 671 00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:52,879 Speaker 1: Great pleasure, great being with you. Thank you so much 672 00:37:52,920 --> 00:38:03,239 Speaker 1: for joining us What Goes Up. We'll be back next 673 00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:04,840 Speaker 1: week and so then you can find us on the 674 00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:08,839 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal website and app, or wherever you get your podcasts. 675 00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:11,080 Speaker 1: We love it if you took the time to rate 676 00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:14,120 Speaker 1: and review the show on Apple Podcasts, so more listeners 677 00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,480 Speaker 1: can find us. And you can find us on Twitter, 678 00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:21,160 Speaker 1: follow me at Reaganonymous, Bill Donna Hirich is at Bildanna hirech. 679 00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:26,359 Speaker 1: You can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at Podcasts. What Goes 680 00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,480 Speaker 1: Up is produced by Stacy Wong. Thanks for listening, See 681 00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:30,000 Speaker 1: you next time.