1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,720
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us prout

2
00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:12,000
Speaker 1: read enough? They're all for running a game so smooth,

3
00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:17,440
Speaker 1: so sweet, splendid sisting just glorious expetution.

4
00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,120
Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

5
00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:22,279
Speaker 2: thousand percent.

6
00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:22,480
Speaker 1: Of the time.

7
00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,520
Speaker 3: How shot with that shop of mind? The buddy, and

8
00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:28,920
Speaker 3: that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

9
00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:31,240
Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most.

10
00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:32,199
Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

11
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:32,960
Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

12
00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:42,360
Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying the wall.

13
00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:47,840
Speaker 1: It's left to of the wide eyed drill bibus. How

14
00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:49,760
Speaker 1: on Earth pick that happens?

15
00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:56,200
Speaker 3: Hello and welcome to a special Tuesday morning edition of Wondergold,

16
00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,400
Speaker 3: the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. This week

17
00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:01,360
Speaker 3: will be a little different. We're only doing one show

18
00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,160
Speaker 3: because the EPL is off this weekend. The FA Cup

19
00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,360
Speaker 3: will be played instead, and we have some Syria on

20
00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:09,480
Speaker 3: midweek stuff. Then they also play with the weekend, and

21
00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:12,559
Speaker 3: of course there is a host of other European soccer

22
00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:14,360
Speaker 3: to get to. But before we get to all of that,

23
00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:18,200
Speaker 3: we will start with two semi finals of the EFL

24
00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:22,520
Speaker 3: Cup the Cowbell Cup, and we could have ourselves a

25
00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:27,720
Speaker 3: tasty not just for this podcast, but in soccer in general,

26
00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,840
Speaker 3: potential North London Derby in a final. But before we

27
00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:34,399
Speaker 3: get that, both Tottenham and Arsenal will have to win,

28
00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,319
Speaker 3: and we'll start on Wednesday with the Spurs match. There

29
00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,920
Speaker 3: plus two eighty five road underdogs traveling to Chelsea, who

30
00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:43,119
Speaker 3: were plus one hundred on the money line. The draw

31
00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:45,800
Speaker 3: is plus two to fifty five currently Wednesday, two to

32
00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:50,200
Speaker 3: forty five pm kickoff at Stanford Bridge. Gentlemen Chelsea, the

33
00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:52,760
Speaker 3: wobble sort of continues. They didn't win. They didn't beat

34
00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,560
Speaker 3: Liverpool hell of a match to two draw ball four

35
00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,920
Speaker 3: goals coming in the first half. Chelsea went down to nil,

36
00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:02,720
Speaker 3: score two goals in three or four minutes to spoil

37
00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,840
Speaker 3: Liverpool's party and then also have their party spoiled their

38
00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:08,480
Speaker 3: chance to keep some sort of pressure on Man City.

39
00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:10,639
Speaker 3: But it doesn't change the fact that Chelsea have just

40
00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:14,079
Speaker 3: one win in their last five matches. Meanwhile, Spurs are

41
00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:18,919
Speaker 3: in the ascendency five wins, three draws, zero losses under

42
00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,360
Speaker 3: Antonio Conte in the Premier League. The plus twelve expected

43
00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:25,640
Speaker 3: gold differential only five point seven four total expected goals

44
00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:30,079
Speaker 3: against in those eight matches under Antonio Conte. Anthony can

45
00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:33,000
Speaker 3: they travel to Chelsea and earn themselves a shot at

46
00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:35,440
Speaker 3: a trophy, their first trophy, and god knows how long

47
00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:37,400
Speaker 3: your lifetime do you think that they have some betting

48
00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:38,000
Speaker 3: value doing that?

49
00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:41,400
Speaker 2: So betting these Caraveou Cup matches and you look at

50
00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:43,760
Speaker 2: the lines and you're like, man, Chelsea seems really cheap

51
00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:47,040
Speaker 2: and man, how is Arsenal favorite against Liverpool? Well, how

52
00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,000
Speaker 2: much these managers care about this cup plays a huge

53
00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:52,680
Speaker 2: role into trying to bet it. So based on all

54
00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:56,880
Speaker 2: the reports, Spurs one are out of Europe, Chelsea is

55
00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,959
Speaker 2: still in Europe, so that factors into the potential fixture

56
00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:02,080
Speaker 2: congestion how many matches their players are playing.

57
00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:04,080
Speaker 3: Spurs also have.

58
00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:06,120
Speaker 2: Not won a trophy since two thousand and eight. Like

59
00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:09,480
Speaker 2: you mentioned, Michael, so trophies and silverware is more important.

60
00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,680
Speaker 2: Especially this specific cup is more important to Tottenham than

61
00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:14,760
Speaker 2: it is to Chelsea. And based on the team that

62
00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,760
Speaker 2: Thomas Toukle put out in the quarterfinal game against Brentford,

63
00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:20,840
Speaker 2: I'm not sure how much he's going to put out

64
00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:24,000
Speaker 2: a strong team here. First off, Edward Mendy and Hakim

65
00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:26,440
Speaker 2: Ziek will not be available because of Africa compan nations.

66
00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:28,440
Speaker 2: They're going to be out for about a month, a

67
00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:31,480
Speaker 2: little less than a month. That means Kapa a Resa

68
00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:33,560
Speaker 2: Bolaga is in goal now. He might have played anyway

69
00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,120
Speaker 2: because it is a cup match, but he's a significant

70
00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:39,160
Speaker 2: downgrade in terms of shot stopping ability. Became a bit

71
00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:41,920
Speaker 2: of a meme in the soccer analytics community for his

72
00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:43,920
Speaker 2: poor play over the last couple of years, and that's

73
00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:46,040
Speaker 2: why they went out and bought Mendy. I do think

74
00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:48,080
Speaker 2: Spurs will rotate a little bit, but not a ton.

75
00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:50,080
Speaker 2: I do think we'll see Kane, We'll see some and

76
00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:52,120
Speaker 2: we'll see Lucas. They're going to rotate at the weekend

77
00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:54,840
Speaker 2: against Morcombe in the FA Cup. And so when you

78
00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:57,080
Speaker 2: factor in all the injuries that Chelsea is dealing with too,

79
00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:01,160
Speaker 2: Ben Chilwell, Reece, James Andreas Christensen and three of their

80
00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,680
Speaker 2: main five defenders in the back line are all going

81
00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:05,560
Speaker 2: to be out for this match. I'm not sure how

82
00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:08,360
Speaker 2: much Tuckle's going to risk guys like in Golo Kante

83
00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:11,160
Speaker 2: and Thiago Silva who have not been one hundred percent

84
00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:13,280
Speaker 2: of late. Of course, they played against Liverpool, that's a

85
00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:15,520
Speaker 2: much bigger match. How much are they gonna risk them here?

86
00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:18,960
Speaker 2: Spurs actually have a better expected goal difference two. Since

87
00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:21,440
Speaker 2: Conte took over in November, they've been the third best

88
00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:24,120
Speaker 2: team in the league. Lukaku seems pretty unlikely to play

89
00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:26,560
Speaker 2: given the rift between him and Tukel at the club.

90
00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:28,840
Speaker 2: Right now, Spurs will be happy to let Chelsea have

91
00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:31,240
Speaker 2: the ball and then look to counter. They've been very

92
00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:33,600
Speaker 2: dangerous on the counter. Chelsea's pretty vulnerable when they don't

93
00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:35,599
Speaker 2: play their best midfielders two counters.

94
00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:37,360
Speaker 3: I think this is all Tottenham here.

95
00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,560
Speaker 2: I took them plus a half minus one ten gonna

96
00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:42,240
Speaker 2: be also sprinkling on the money line too. I know

97
00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:43,840
Speaker 2: they're away from home and they'll probably just take the

98
00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:46,280
Speaker 2: draw and then come home next week. But I think

99
00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:48,680
Speaker 2: this is a good Spurs spot and there's a good

100
00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:50,960
Speaker 2: chance this line crashes quite a bit if we get

101
00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:53,040
Speaker 2: team news that Chelsea's gonna play a lot of their

102
00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:53,960
Speaker 2: reserve players.

103
00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:56,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually think we could see Lukaku in this one.

104
00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:58,680
Speaker 3: Did seem like the reports out of the training from

105
00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:01,040
Speaker 3: today where that he was running really hard and the

106
00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:04,760
Speaker 3: rift is behind them. What a hilarious kind of situation

107
00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:06,760
Speaker 3: that was. But I'm with you. I think Tottenham they're

108
00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:09,080
Speaker 3: on the ascendency while We're kind of just waiting to

109
00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:11,680
Speaker 3: see where Chelsea goes, like is this Are they going

110
00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:14,200
Speaker 3: to be in this inconsistent but good team for the

111
00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:16,400
Speaker 3: rest of the season. Are they going to find their

112
00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:18,520
Speaker 3: legs like they did when we kind of thought that

113
00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:20,440
Speaker 3: this wobble was coming earlier in the season and then

114
00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,240
Speaker 3: they started to rattle off results. I'm not totally sure,

115
00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,359
Speaker 3: and I think the number here is just way too

116
00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,520
Speaker 3: good on Tottenham, especially right now before we know what

117
00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:30,720
Speaker 3: Tucal's going to do with the lineup near three to

118
00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:33,560
Speaker 3: one on this team, who are firing on all cylinders

119
00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:36,039
Speaker 3: right now. They dominated against Watford, just didn't have their

120
00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:38,400
Speaker 3: shooting boots on their feet. Probably should have won that

121
00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:40,640
Speaker 3: game by a couple more than one nil against the

122
00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,480
Speaker 3: defense that was just leaking and leaking and leaking before

123
00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:45,720
Speaker 3: that match. But I still have a lot of faith

124
00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:47,800
Speaker 3: in this team right now. I think that if they

125
00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,680
Speaker 3: were playing basically anybody else we'd be seeing or you know,

126
00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:53,400
Speaker 3: if they're playing Liverpool or Arsenal in these matchups, the

127
00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:55,080
Speaker 3: line would be tighter. I think Chelsea's just getting way

128
00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:58,120
Speaker 3: too much respect in this situation. DJ, I know you

129
00:05:58,160 --> 00:05:59,719
Speaker 3: don't like them, what do you have to say about

130
00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:01,200
Speaker 3: Spurts right now, Well.

131
00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:02,840
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, this is a kind of a wait

132
00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,120
Speaker 1: and see what the lineup's going to be. Chelsea obviously

133
00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:06,880
Speaker 1: a lot of their best players are missing, but you know,

134
00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:09,040
Speaker 1: Chelsea's one of these teams a lot like Liverpool and

135
00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:11,360
Speaker 1: City that they have a ton of depth. So you know,

136
00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:14,080
Speaker 1: if they have to play pools of Stitch and Mount

137
00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,400
Speaker 1: you know, and haveverts up top, that's still a good

138
00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:20,720
Speaker 1: front three. You know, it's obviously now Lukaku, but you know,

139
00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:22,560
Speaker 1: if they have to, you know, go into their midfield

140
00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,400
Speaker 1: and play style and play you know, Virginio or whoever.

141
00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:27,360
Speaker 1: You know, it's it's still a good lineup. You know,

142
00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:29,880
Speaker 1: maybe it's not their best, but you know, when these

143
00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:31,680
Speaker 1: two teams met early in the season, I understand it

144
00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:36,120
Speaker 1: was under new No, but Chelsea completely dominated Spurs three nothing,

145
00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:38,760
Speaker 1: two point five expected goals two point seven. Now things

146
00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:41,440
Speaker 1: have obviously changed. Tottenham obviously, I think a trophy means

147
00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:43,400
Speaker 1: a lot more to them than any of the other

148
00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:45,920
Speaker 1: three teams left in this tournament. But you know, it's

149
00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:47,560
Speaker 1: just kind of a wait and see. It'll probably end

150
00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:49,640
Speaker 1: up firing on Spurs, even though I don't really want to,

151
00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:51,800
Speaker 1: but I want to wait and see what kind of

152
00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:54,560
Speaker 1: lineup not only Chelsea comes out with, but what Tottenham

153
00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:55,360
Speaker 1: comes out with as well.

154
00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:55,960
Speaker 3: Yeah.

155
00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:59,440
Speaker 2: I mean Chelsea didn't play any of their main attackers

156
00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:01,920
Speaker 2: in the last meeting, and they didn't play any of

157
00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:04,240
Speaker 2: their man attackers against Villa earlier in this cup either.

158
00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:06,640
Speaker 2: Now that can change once you get to a semi final.

159
00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:09,960
Speaker 2: Toogle may take it more seriously. Chelsea also has City,

160
00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:13,040
Speaker 2: Spurs have Arsenal coming up the next Premier League match

161
00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:16,160
Speaker 2: on the weekend after this, so the fifteenth, so you know,

162
00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:18,880
Speaker 2: maybe that impacts the second leg more than the first leg.

163
00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:20,680
Speaker 3: But I'm just not sure.

164
00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:22,080
Speaker 2: I think you're getting a bit of a free role

165
00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,960
Speaker 2: here because, like you mentioned, Tottenham has incentive to play

166
00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:29,679
Speaker 2: everybody like Arsenal who's not in Europe, whereas these Chelsea

167
00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:31,880
Speaker 2: and Liverpool teams. Of course, it's a cup final, so

168
00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:33,960
Speaker 2: that's a little different. But when it gets to April,

169
00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:36,000
Speaker 2: they're going to be more focused on Europe and the

170
00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:37,800
Speaker 2: Premier League. Then they're going to be focused on the

171
00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:40,080
Speaker 2: Carabell Cup. And even if this weren't FA Cup match,

172
00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,680
Speaker 2: I think it's entirely different. But Klopp and Touckle have

173
00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:45,040
Speaker 2: not cared about the Caraboll Cup. Every example we've had

174
00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:45,800
Speaker 2: a chance to see them.

175
00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:47,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, in the winner of the Carrabell Cup. I don't

176
00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:48,640
Speaker 1: know if you've already mentioned in this, Anthony, but the

177
00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:50,280
Speaker 1: winner of the Caraboll Cup gets a place in the

178
00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:53,720
Speaker 1: Europa Conference League. So for these four clubs, that's not

179
00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,080
Speaker 1: really that big of an incentive for them, you know.

180
00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:58,680
Speaker 1: I mean we saw how, you know, seriously, Tottenham took

181
00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:00,680
Speaker 1: the Europa Conference League this year and everything. You know,

182
00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:02,760
Speaker 1: these clubs are rather be playing in the Europa League

183
00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:04,360
Speaker 1: or the Champions League, and that's what they'll you know,

184
00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:06,320
Speaker 1: have their focus on, as we you know, go throughout

185
00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,480
Speaker 1: the Premier League season finishing in the top five to

186
00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:10,600
Speaker 1: actually secure a spot in one of those leagues.

187
00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:14,320
Speaker 3: The other semifinal. Like Anthony said, these are the first legs.

188
00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:17,280
Speaker 3: They come back for the reverse fixture next week Thursday

189
00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:21,600
Speaker 3: two forty five pm Eastern Arsenal hosting Liverpool. The Gunners

190
00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,600
Speaker 3: plus one twenty at home Liverpool coming back plus two

191
00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:28,240
Speaker 3: thirty five the draws plus two to fifty Liverpool. They're

192
00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:31,360
Speaker 3: going to be without plenty of players. Mos La Saudio

193
00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,960
Speaker 3: Mane they're going to the Africa Cup of Nations. Roberto Famino,

194
00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:38,480
Speaker 3: Allison and Joe Matt t Paul. We're in COVID protocol

195
00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:41,000
Speaker 3: over the weekend, so we'll see what's going on there.

196
00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,080
Speaker 3: That being said, you said it like Urgen Klopp doesn't

197
00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,880
Speaker 3: seem to take this competition seriously. But on the other hand,

198
00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,880
Speaker 3: like this is Manchester City's won this trophy four or

199
00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:52,040
Speaker 3: five years in a row prior to this, and I

200
00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:54,280
Speaker 3: know they get they never got to the final or

201
00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:56,200
Speaker 3: we're close to it in the past couple of years.

202
00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:59,960
Speaker 3: But I do think that with the league starting to drain,

203
00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:02,880
Speaker 3: there's very little hope left for Liverpool or Chelsea. I

204
00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:05,040
Speaker 3: do think that there will be a greater point of

205
00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:07,720
Speaker 3: emphasis to try to rack up a trophy for any

206
00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,160
Speaker 3: of these teams, that includes Liverpool. And like you were

207
00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:12,920
Speaker 3: saying with Chelsea, like their depth should be good enough here,

208
00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:16,719
Speaker 3: I think to at least give Arsenal issues. So I

209
00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:18,880
Speaker 3: do think that the number here on Liverpool is and

210
00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:20,839
Speaker 3: if it keeps sticking up, it already has. I do

211
00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:23,680
Speaker 3: think they're interesting here and I never bet on this team.

212
00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:26,040
Speaker 3: I really don't because I always think they're crazy overvalued

213
00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:29,720
Speaker 3: but I think that the lineup situation and the perceived

214
00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:32,880
Speaker 3: lack of motivation here could inflate Liverpool's price to a

215
00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,240
Speaker 3: point where you just got to bet it. So that's

216
00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:38,079
Speaker 3: where I'm looking here, BJ, What do you have for

217
00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:38,920
Speaker 3: this one? Yeah?

218
00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:40,480
Speaker 1: I want to wait and see what Liverpool has for

219
00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:42,199
Speaker 1: a line That's the big thing with all these you know,

220
00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:44,199
Speaker 1: if you're gonna bet the Carabell Cup or even the

221
00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:46,000
Speaker 1: FPA Cup, if you want to bet one of these

222
00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,000
Speaker 1: bigger sides, you have to wait and see what the

223
00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,559
Speaker 1: lineups are because we just don't know how much these

224
00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,640
Speaker 1: teams actually care about it. Now, from an arsenal perspective,

225
00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:56,760
Speaker 1: this is a great spot to essentially finally beat one

226
00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,120
Speaker 1: of these bigger sides. You know, Saturday's performance against City

227
00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:02,120
Speaker 1: was probably the most urging arsenal performance of the last

228
00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:03,880
Speaker 1: you know, pretty much with the mckel or Teta era

229
00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:07,520
Speaker 1: against you know, a big side, Liverpool is just so shorthanded.

230
00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:11,480
Speaker 1: I don't see, you know, even with even Minamino and

231
00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:16,679
Speaker 1: uh Aurigi are are both are both questionable for this one.

232
00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:19,319
Speaker 1: And you know, I mean, let's see some Eddie Nakata.

233
00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:21,960
Speaker 1: He might get another Patrick in the carabout Cup. But again,

234
00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:24,120
Speaker 1: this price is too short on Arsenal. I can't even

235
00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:27,240
Speaker 1: with Liverpool being you know, as as shorthanded as they are,

236
00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:30,640
Speaker 1: it's I can't play Arsenal at this number. You know,

237
00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,240
Speaker 1: if if Arsenal gets more, you know, drifts more towards

238
00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:36,000
Speaker 1: a Pickham, then Liverpool doesn't really want to take this seriously.

239
00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:38,480
Speaker 1: Like if no Diego Jota is playing, maybe no Jordan

240
00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,599
Speaker 1: Henderson or even no Van Dijk. I might shift and

241
00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:44,240
Speaker 1: bet Arsenal if they come out with a stronger lineup,

242
00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:46,319
Speaker 1: but you know they're gonna be without Thomas Parte and

243
00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,880
Speaker 1: Gabrielle for this one as well. So it'll be interesting

244
00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:50,719
Speaker 1: to see what this line ends up at and what

245
00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:53,040
Speaker 1: line up Liverpool is coming out it with. But for me,

246
00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:54,120
Speaker 1: this one is just a pass.

247
00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:57,079
Speaker 3: Yeah. It's been really challenging in all sports trying to

248
00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:59,200
Speaker 3: handicap who's going to be in and out of lineups

249
00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:02,640
Speaker 3: because of the pandemic and the omicron surge. Then you

250
00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,520
Speaker 3: throw in African Cup nations, plus the will they or

251
00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,000
Speaker 3: won't they take it seriously angle it, it just becomes

252
00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:11,920
Speaker 3: even tougher. Anthony anything on Spurs and Liverpool from a

253
00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:12,760
Speaker 3: bidding perspective.

254
00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:14,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, this line was a pick them a

255
00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:17,199
Speaker 2: few days ago and I missed out on that. And

256
00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:21,240
Speaker 2: the number has moved considerably toward Arsenal since the Liverpool

257
00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,880
Speaker 2: game on Sunday. That was a really physical game the

258
00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:27,199
Speaker 2: Liverpool played at Chelsea. They were second best for a

259
00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:30,040
Speaker 2: lot of second and loose balls in that game and

260
00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,199
Speaker 2: I thought that was a pretty concerning sign. They looked

261
00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:36,199
Speaker 2: kind of tired and the midfield of Henderson and Milner

262
00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:39,680
Speaker 2: and Fabinho. Henderson looks like he's lost a step. Milner

263
00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:41,719
Speaker 2: looks like he's completely lost it in terms of his

264
00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,440
Speaker 2: ability at his age, and then you start looking, Okay,

265
00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:47,280
Speaker 2: who can they turn to for depth in the midfield. Naw,

266
00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:50,040
Speaker 2: Beketo is going to be an afcon. Who are the

267
00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:53,320
Speaker 2: options and we're gonna probably see some Moreton Again, There's

268
00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:55,599
Speaker 2: just not a lot of good options for Liverpool to

269
00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:58,360
Speaker 2: compete in this midfield and I'm concerned Arsenal may run

270
00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:02,000
Speaker 2: them over so toward Arsenal even at the number, because

271
00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:03,439
Speaker 2: I think Klopp is going to see the writing on

272
00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:06,040
Speaker 2: the wall here and realize that he's just so shorthanded

273
00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:11,079
Speaker 2: and he cannot tax his already taxed squad in these

274
00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,199
Speaker 2: matches over the next week against Arsenal plus an FA

275
00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:17,040
Speaker 2: Cup match, and then go play two big Premier League

276
00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:19,760
Speaker 2: matches when they're chasing the title. I mean, I wouldn't

277
00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:22,160
Speaker 2: be shocked if Kopp completely writes this off. So you

278
00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:25,280
Speaker 2: can't play Liverpool here and I don't only lean or

279
00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:27,800
Speaker 2: even look toward Arsenal. And I understand it's priced in,

280
00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,280
Speaker 2: but I'm not sure it's quite priced in enough. How

281
00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:34,400
Speaker 2: bad the Liverpool team might be come Thursday afternoon when

282
00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:36,480
Speaker 2: this game is kicking off, Because I know Klopp doesn't

283
00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:38,599
Speaker 2: care about the competition. He thinks there should only be

284
00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:41,360
Speaker 2: one domestic competition, the FA Cup, so they may even

285
00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:45,080
Speaker 2: take Saturday more seriously again in the FA Cup or Sunday.

286
00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,760
Speaker 3: But I don't think you can play Liverpool. Yeah, we'll see.

287
00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:51,160
Speaker 3: I have a feelings he's going to do something that

288
00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:52,959
Speaker 3: we don't see coming. Maybe he'll just set up his

289
00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:55,319
Speaker 3: team in a Sean Ditsche four four two and not

290
00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:57,440
Speaker 3: press and just let the game come to them. It'll

291
00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:01,000
Speaker 3: be interesting to see. Nonetheless, if DFL Cup is not

292
00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:05,839
Speaker 3: really your thing, there's more the midweek action. Syria is back, baby,

293
00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:09,280
Speaker 3: and we have two headliners. Let's start with a Thursday

294
00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,520
Speaker 3: twelve thirty pm kickoff between AC Milan they're minus one

295
00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:15,520
Speaker 3: oh five at home hosting Jose Mourinhos Roma, who are

296
00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:17,640
Speaker 3: plus two ninety five. The draw for this one is

297
00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:20,640
Speaker 3: plus two to sixty five. Acy Milan. They've scored ten

298
00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:25,080
Speaker 3: more goals above their x G this season, whereas Roma

299
00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:28,040
Speaker 3: is it's basically just been in line with their underlying metrics,

300
00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:32,000
Speaker 3: which are pretty much on par with Milan. I think

301
00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:34,640
Speaker 3: you're getting a pretty good number here on Marinhos boy,

302
00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:36,120
Speaker 3: So I'm going to take a shot on the money

303
00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:37,800
Speaker 3: line post to three to one. I think it's a

304
00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:40,400
Speaker 3: good enough number between two teams that are near equal

305
00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:43,720
Speaker 3: when you look at the under the hood stats. BJ

306
00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:47,160
Speaker 3: anything for you in Roma versus AC.

307
00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:49,520
Speaker 1: Milan, Yeah, I love Roma plus half a goal at

308
00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:51,640
Speaker 1: minus one ten. So the biggest thing, like you mentioned,

309
00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:54,960
Speaker 1: AC Milan ten more actual goals than they're what they've

310
00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:57,400
Speaker 1: created on their expected goals. The big reason for that

311
00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:00,680
Speaker 1: is because they only have seventeen big scoring chances this season,

312
00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:02,520
Speaker 1: which is tenth in Syria A, and that's a big

313
00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:05,840
Speaker 1: problem against Jose Mourinho's side, who that's their biggest weakness

314
00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,280
Speaker 1: because they've allowed the seventh most big scoring chances.

315
00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:08,480
Speaker 3: In the league.

316
00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,920
Speaker 1: In fact, Milan has only created four big scoring chances

317
00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:14,880
Speaker 1: in their last seven matches. And Roma, who we talked about,

318
00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:16,800
Speaker 1: you know, last time we talked about Siria A. They've

319
00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:19,920
Speaker 1: been improving defensively, only three big scoring chants allowed in

320
00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,960
Speaker 1: their last seven matches. So it's going to be difficult

321
00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:25,720
Speaker 1: for me to see how Milan is actually going to

322
00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:28,680
Speaker 1: break down this Roma defense. Roma offensively, though, has been

323
00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,720
Speaker 1: on fire. They're creating chances left and right. They're averaging

324
00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:34,600
Speaker 1: one point six non penalty expected goals per match, which

325
00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:37,760
Speaker 1: is the second best mark in Syria HA, behind only Inter.

326
00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:41,560
Speaker 1: The addition of Sammy Abraham has done wonders for them offensively.

327
00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:44,640
Speaker 1: He's averaging point five to five expected goals per ninety minutes,

328
00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,240
Speaker 1: which is fifth best in Syria A for strikers who

329
00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:50,480
Speaker 1: have played over one thousand minutes. Ac Milan, they have

330
00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,160
Speaker 1: been good defensively overall for the season. They're only allowing

331
00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:56,200
Speaker 1: point nine non penalty expected goals per match, but that's

332
00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,680
Speaker 1: come against a lot of the bad offensive teams at

333
00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:02,120
Speaker 1: the bottom end of the table. Again, Juventus, Atolanta, Roma,

334
00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:06,040
Speaker 1: Inter and Napoli. They allowed seven point eight expected goals

335
00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:08,560
Speaker 1: in those five matches, so I only have ac Milan

336
00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:11,320
Speaker 1: projected at plus one thirty six. If you look at

337
00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:13,360
Speaker 1: five thirty eight, they only have ac Milan at forty

338
00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:16,320
Speaker 1: five percent, and Info Goal also only has ac Milan

339
00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,080
Speaker 1: at forty six percent. So give me Jose Amarinho's men

340
00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:20,560
Speaker 1: plus half a goal at minus one ten.

341
00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:24,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, the special one, baby, Anthony, you're coming with us, right, yeah? Absolutely.

342
00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:26,560
Speaker 2: My numbers minus one forty two for Roman to get

343
00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:28,200
Speaker 2: a point here, so I like them quite a bit,

344
00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:29,480
Speaker 2: at least a point.

345
00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:29,800
Speaker 3: That is.

346
00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:34,320
Speaker 2: Roma is attacking numbers are even better than I think

347
00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:36,400
Speaker 2: bj mentioned, because I think the narrative on them is

348
00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:38,360
Speaker 2: that they haven't been able to finish off chances this year.

349
00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:43,120
Speaker 2: Tammy Abraham especially is the number one guy, only six

350
00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:47,120
Speaker 2: goals from about nine point three expected goals. Some other

351
00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:49,520
Speaker 2: numbers have him closer to ten expected goals, so he's

352
00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,360
Speaker 2: running well below what you'd expect. He leads the league

353
00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:55,080
Speaker 2: in posts and crossbars, so he's had a lot of

354
00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,240
Speaker 2: bad luck. That's probably going to turn around for him

355
00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,920
Speaker 2: in the new year term and pretty soon The reality

356
00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,080
Speaker 2: is for this Milan attack, they don't have nearly the

357
00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:05,920
Speaker 2: high quality shot production that Roma does, and when you

358
00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:08,760
Speaker 2: look at it, Milan is very reliant on shots from distance.

359
00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:10,960
Speaker 2: What we know about soccer teams over the course of

360
00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,280
Speaker 2: a thirty eight game season, the teams who create the

361
00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:16,280
Speaker 2: best shots, which tend to be from the closest areas

362
00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,800
Speaker 2: on the pitch, tend to have the most sustainable attacks. Well,

363
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,680
Speaker 2: Milan is the fourth worst in terms of shot distance.

364
00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 2: They relied a lot on shots from outside the box,

365
00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,640
Speaker 2: shots from the edge of the box to score goals.

366
00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:31,000
Speaker 2: One major concern Ry Patricio has been terrible. He might

367
00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:33,960
Speaker 2: just be cooked, so that's a concern for Roma in goal.

368
00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:37,200
Speaker 2: But I just cannot trust this Milan attack to create

369
00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:41,760
Speaker 2: separation here. Also Frank Kessi and Ishmael Benisser to the

370
00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:43,880
Speaker 2: African compan Nations. For Milan, they're one of the hardest

371
00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:46,400
Speaker 2: hit teams. I'd argue that they are two best midfielders

372
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:48,360
Speaker 2: that are gone, which means going to be Sandra Tanali,

373
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:50,160
Speaker 2: who I happen to like, but I don't think he

374
00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:54,000
Speaker 2: offers the defensive solidity that Benissier and Kessi do, and

375
00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 2: so you're probably gonna see salam Akers as well.

376
00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,640
Speaker 3: Decent player, but not a difference maker. Milan's got a

377
00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:02,600
Speaker 3: lot of injuries piling up. So I like Roma here.

378
00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,120
Speaker 2: Like you mentioned, Milan not creating enough big scoring chances

379
00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:07,480
Speaker 2: is going to rely on flups and long range chances

380
00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:09,399
Speaker 2: to score, and I think it's very hard to do

381
00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:11,080
Speaker 2: that and sustain it for a.

382
00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:12,880
Speaker 3: Team who's clearly been in a bit of a downtrap.

383
00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:16,960
Speaker 1: To your point, Milan fifteen shots inside the six yard

384
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,240
Speaker 1: box this season, Roma thirty five. So that's just the

385
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:22,640
Speaker 1: difference between the two teams in terms of creating scoring

386
00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:25,040
Speaker 1: chances close to the neck. To back up your point, Anthony.

387
00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:26,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, when you look at the Roma attack second and

388
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:29,280
Speaker 2: shot second in big scoring chanceys second in penalty non

389
00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:32,040
Speaker 2: penalty XG for ninety just a better attack and the

390
00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:34,000
Speaker 2: goals won't tell you that. The points won't tell you that.

391
00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:36,280
Speaker 2: But when we get down to it, I like Roma

392
00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:37,760
Speaker 2: a lot more. And they can play on the counter here.

393
00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,320
Speaker 3: Let Milan have the ball. Think they're very effective there.

394
00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:44,399
Speaker 3: Good for Jose Mourinho, Yeah, the underdog special one, the

395
00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:47,280
Speaker 3: underdoug coming. We've all fitted him quite a bit in

396
00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:48,160
Speaker 3: the last couple of years.

397
00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:51,639
Speaker 1: I feel like, yeah, now he's reinvented himself. Look at Hell,

398
00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:53,639
Speaker 1: look at this flourishing offense he has in Serea.

399
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:57,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe the markets are sleeping, Yeah, misster Maurinho. Now

400
00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,080
Speaker 3: the other headliner in Italy is is youve the Old

401
00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:04,920
Speaker 3: Lady minus one oh five at home hosting Napoli plus

402
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,479
Speaker 3: three ten on the money line the draws plus two sixty.

403
00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:11,879
Speaker 3: Napoli a couple of weeks ago were undefeated top Seria

404
00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,840
Speaker 3: and they've hit a real rut here. They're two one

405
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:18,520
Speaker 3: to four win draw loss in their last seven seven points.

406
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,919
Speaker 3: But they've been a little unlucky over those games. They

407
00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,840
Speaker 3: should have had according to expected points, about a dozen points. Meanwhile,

408
00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 3: Juventus three point seven expectacles allowed in their last seven.

409
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:31,200
Speaker 3: It does seem like they've started to refine their form

410
00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:34,800
Speaker 3: under Max Aleeghri, the form that he had with them

411
00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:37,719
Speaker 3: during his first near decade in charge there where they

412
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:40,840
Speaker 3: won scadetos every season. I think both of these teams

413
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:44,399
Speaker 3: their strength is their defense. Their strength is suppressing scoring chances.

414
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,360
Speaker 3: So I think that this game sets up pretty well

415
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,040
Speaker 3: for a draw, and it's plus two sixty. I think

416
00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:51,879
Speaker 3: it's a great number. BJ. I know you project a

417
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,520
Speaker 3: low total. The total itself is low, so I think

418
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:56,720
Speaker 3: you're looking at a low event game. That's where I

419
00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:58,920
Speaker 3: like to get in on draws, and that's what I'm

420
00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 3: gonna do. Plus two sixty for me on a tie, BJ,

421
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:02,359
Speaker 3: What do you have for this one?

422
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:03,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, the under two and a half goals is a

423
00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:05,879
Speaker 1: little too expensive for me right now, So instead I'm

424
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 1: gonna go both teams to score no at minus one ten.

425
00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:10,440
Speaker 1: Like you said, these are the two best defenses in

426
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:14,000
Speaker 1: Syria by non penalty expected goals, Napoli only allowing point

427
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,680
Speaker 1: six to nine per match and Events only point seven

428
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,640
Speaker 1: to eight per match allowed. Combined, this season, these two

429
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:23,600
Speaker 1: defenses have only allowed a total of fifteen big scoring chances.

430
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 1: For comparison, Salar and Eitana, who's in dead last place,

431
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,520
Speaker 1: has allowed thirty two big scoring chances. So that's how

432
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:31,960
Speaker 1: good these two defenses have been. Napoli matches have been

433
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 1: extremely low event during the month of December. Their last

434
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:38,200
Speaker 1: five matches have featured only an average of two total

435
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,680
Speaker 1: expected goals and only two big scoring chances. Not to

436
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:43,919
Speaker 1: mention one of their best strikers, Victor Oshman is off

437
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,680
Speaker 1: to the Africa Cup of Nations this week, so it's

438
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:48,640
Speaker 1: not a good mixture here for Napoli going up against

439
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:52,240
Speaker 1: one of the best defenses in Syria. Events themselves offensively

440
00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:54,679
Speaker 1: has been struggling to create high quality chances. They're only

441
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 1: averaging one point twenty seven non penalty expected goals per match.

442
00:19:57,880 --> 00:20:00,359
Speaker 1: But there are a couple bigger issues at hand, like

443
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 1: tactically alleguries playing out of a four to four to

444
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 1: two in tending to be more defensive. You know, they

445
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,600
Speaker 1: haven't really had the attacking players create a lot. They've

446
00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:10,960
Speaker 1: been kind of reliant on Diabala and Alva Moratto. I

447
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,960
Speaker 1: mean they're Leonardo Bernucci, who's a center back, has their

448
00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:17,280
Speaker 1: third most expected goals created this season, which is kind

449
00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:19,720
Speaker 1: of embarrassing for a club as big as Juventus. And also,

450
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,120
Speaker 1: I mean the rumormail is swirling with Marazza. He could

451
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:24,640
Speaker 1: be off to Barcelona by the time this match kicks

452
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,159
Speaker 1: off on Thursday, or might even not even be in

453
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,880
Speaker 1: the lineup, who knows. So for two of the best

454
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:32,120
Speaker 1: defenses in Syria A going against each other, you're getting

455
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 1: a both team to score no line at minus one ten.

456
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,280
Speaker 1: I love the value there. I have them both team

457
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 1: to score no line protected a minus one sixty two.

458
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:40,840
Speaker 1: So that's where I'm going with this one.

459
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 3: Anthony, you're looking towards allegraies Manee, Yeah, I am.

460
00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:47,440
Speaker 2: I think Napoli has really fallen off, and I understand

461
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,960
Speaker 2: they've been a little unlucky in the last probably month,

462
00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,560
Speaker 2: but they were also running way too hot and so

463
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 2: you know, they had some regression coming and kind of

464
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 2: have balanced out roughly.

465
00:20:57,840 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 3: I'm just not sure what's left of this Napoli.

466
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,920
Speaker 2: Team when you take out Koulabali who's gone, onas who's

467
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,399
Speaker 2: gone for the FCon both of them, and then Vic

468
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,440
Speaker 2: Garrossman as well. Napoli has thirty five goals from twenty

469
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 2: nine XG. They don't create a lot of high quality chances.

470
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:14,800
Speaker 2: Like BJ mentioned, they're very reliant like Milan on shots

471
00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:17,720
Speaker 2: from distance. They have the third longest average shot length.

472
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:20,360
Speaker 2: True title challengers will almost always be in the top ten,

473
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,240
Speaker 2: and would you look at that Juve is in the

474
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 2: top ten. Their defense has been really impressive over the

475
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 2: last month month and a half. They've had a few

476
00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 2: fortunate results where they've probably conceded enough too that they

477
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 2: should have allowed a goal and kept one out, but

478
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,400
Speaker 2: that's very allegriy esque in that way, in the way

479
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 2: they're able to see out games. I think Juventus wins here.

480
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 2: I agree with BJ it's a pretty low scoring game.

481
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 2: But really I think you're getting a Uva team who's

482
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 2: a little bit lower in the table than they should

483
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 2: be based on performances, and a Napoli team that's been

484
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:49,239
Speaker 2: in a bit of a free fall, doesn't have two

485
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 2: of their best players and really has not impressed much

486
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,440
Speaker 2: over the last month and still has some attacking regression

487
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,880
Speaker 2: coming too. So I like Juventus on the money line

488
00:21:57,960 --> 00:21:58,640
Speaker 2: minus one ten.

489
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,439
Speaker 3: Like I said, there's a full slate of MIDWEK games

490
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 3: in Syria.

491
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:02,439
Speaker 2: Uh.

492
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 3: Is there anything else on the board that really piques

493
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:06,359
Speaker 3: your interest? Bjay?

494
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,639
Speaker 1: Yes. One of my favorite teams of the entire season

495
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 1: has been to Reno. I can't get over how good

496
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 1: their defensive numbers have been. They're only allowing point eight

497
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 1: non penalty expected goals for match only, ten point one

498
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 1: shots per ninety and nine point five box enturies per match.

499
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 1: That's all top five in Syria A. But somehow they're

500
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,160
Speaker 1: sitting right in eleventh place right now. I mean, even

501
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:29,200
Speaker 1: their last match, you go back right before the break,

502
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,160
Speaker 1: they were on the road to the San SiO take

503
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 1: on Enter, who is the best offense in Italy, averaging

504
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:36,919
Speaker 1: around two point two expected goals for match, held them

505
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 1: to a one zero loss and only allowed them to

506
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,959
Speaker 1: create point nine expected goals. In fact, to Reno has

507
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,879
Speaker 1: only allowed ten point nine expected goals in nineteen matches

508
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:48,159
Speaker 1: from open play, and that's the second best mark in

509
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 1: Syria Ah. You know, at Alanta they have a great attack,

510
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,120
Speaker 1: but the star of their attack du von Zapata has

511
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,439
Speaker 1: injured for this one, likely going to be out. That's

512
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,919
Speaker 1: detrimental to them because he's averaging point eight three expected

513
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 1: goals per ninety minutes and has created thirty three percent

514
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 1: of their expected goals in Syria A this season. The

515
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 1: big thing with Adelanta is they're the third lowest press

516
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 1: team in Syria A and when they do have to

517
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 1: face pressure, they're pretty average. They allow a little under

518
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 1: you know, a thirty percent successful pressure eight. Torino is

519
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:18,439
Speaker 1: the best pressing team in Syria A by passed per

520
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,919
Speaker 1: defensive action and pressure success rate. So I don't think

521
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 1: it's going to be very easy for Adelanta to move

522
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 1: the ball into the final third and into the penalty

523
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,199
Speaker 1: area on one of the best defenses in the league Tono. Offensively,

524
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,640
Speaker 1: they've been slightly above average, only about one point two

525
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,439
Speaker 1: expected goals per match, and the really only advantage they

526
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 1: have in this is big scoring chances. At Alanta is

527
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,640
Speaker 1: pretty susceptible to allowing them. They've conceded seventeen this season,

528
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 1: while Torino has the sixth to most. I only have

529
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 1: Adelanta projected at minus one oh six and they're spread

530
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 1: at minus point four to eight, So I love to

531
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 1: Reno plus one at even money.

532
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 3: Right now, Anthony, what do you have as your favorite

533
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 3: bet for Syria OZ midweek action. I'll second B Jay's

534
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 3: Torino pick as ivan euroch revolution continues.

535
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 1: Was Verona.

536
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 2: They were excellent defensively. Now he's at Tarno. They have

537
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 2: shot up in every defensive metric and we're pretty unlucky

538
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 2: to lose two to one Atlanta earlier this year, so

539
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,920
Speaker 2: some revenge on their minds. I like them plus one two,

540
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 2: but the one game I'm looking, I'm not as low

541
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 2: on Fiorentina maybe as BJ is, but I do love

542
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 2: losing money on uton Esse so as much as the

543
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 2: next SERI all better.

544
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:24,159
Speaker 3: I'm gonna hop on.

545
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,920
Speaker 2: Udon esse plus a half, Fiorentina fifth and expected goals

546
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 2: for third and goals since October began. So they have

547
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 2: improved and that is impressive, but they're playing a bit

548
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,160
Speaker 2: above their talent level. They probably do have some regression coming.

549
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 2: I don't really think they're gonna They're really one of

550
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 2: the top six seven attacks in the league when you

551
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 2: look at the talent and kind of the numbers on that.

552
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,119
Speaker 2: But the one thing that concerns me about this matchup

553
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 2: against Utonessei Udinessi runs a bit of a quick strike,

554
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 2: counter attacking brand.

555
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 3: They don't really progress the ball, hold the ball forever,

556
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 3: slow build up. That's not really their thing.

557
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 2: Especially since they lost to Paul in the offseason, so

558
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 2: they won't really want or need sustained possession against Fiorentina.

559
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,679
Speaker 2: They match up well with Fiorentina because Fiorentina actually has

560
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 2: pretty elite numbers at preventing opponents into their own penalty

561
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 2: area and getting into the opponents penalty area.

562
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 3: That's a pretty encouraging sign for them, but they've been cooked.

563
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 2: When they do get teams do get into their penalty area,

564
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 2: they allow the tenth most scoring chances allowed. They have

565
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:18,639
Speaker 2: a poor average shot distance, they allow a lot of

566
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 2: big scoring chances. UTTERNESSI will got a few of those

567
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 2: on the counter, and so I like UTERNESSI here plus

568
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:25,479
Speaker 2: a half. I like backing them as a dog more

569
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 2: than as a favorite, because they have had nightmares trying

570
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 2: to beat these bad teams.

571
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 3: There's been a lot of draws against lower Syria teams.

572
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 2: But when they get an overrated Fiorentina, I'm going to

573
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 2: take them plus a half and hopefully they can holdly

574
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:38,719
Speaker 2: lead if they get one, because that's been a big

575
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:40,880
Speaker 2: issue for them various points of the year when I've

576
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 2: tried to bet on them, and when BJ has tried

577
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 2: to bet on them as.

578
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 1: Underdogs, yep, I second that bet.

579
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:50,640
Speaker 3: Of course BJ will second up for Orentina. Fade. Let's

580
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 3: stay in Syria and just wrap up the Italian section

581
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 3: of the program. They are playing a full slate this

582
00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,959
Speaker 3: weekend as well. It's tough to try to figure out

583
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 3: out betting value before an entire match week, but we'll

584
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 3: do our best.

585
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 1: Year.

586
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,400
Speaker 3: We want you to go into the weekend as best

587
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 3: prepared as possible. Bjay, do you have anything for the

588
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,199
Speaker 3: weekends Syria on matches.

589
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course I have a line in the sand game.

590
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 1: It's Tarino against Fiorentino. We just spoke about both of them.

591
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 1: I mean already we already saidnything about Ternino. I'll back

592
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: up Anthony's point on Fiorentina. Their expected goal numbers are improving.

593
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 1: I'll give them that after being one of the more

594
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 1: overrated teams in Syria over the first you know, i'd

595
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 1: say quarter of the season. But they tend to really

596
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 1: struggle when they have to play good defenses against Napoli, Torino,

597
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:40,439
Speaker 1: ac Milan, Inter Juve and Roma. Fiorentina is averaging only

598
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,399
Speaker 1: one point zero three expected goals per match. Against the

599
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 1: rest of Siria, they average one point eighty four expected

600
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:50,679
Speaker 1: goals per match. Dussan Vlahovic he's good, I'll give him.

601
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:52,679
Speaker 1: He's a great young striker, but he's not as good

602
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,159
Speaker 1: as the numbers he's putting up right now. Sixteen goals

603
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 1: off of around only eleven expected goals. That's going to

604
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 1: tend to regress towards I mean even his expected goal

605
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 1: per nine even scoring rate is point five to four.

606
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 1: That's lower than Tammy Abraham and Tammy Abraham only has

607
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:10,159
Speaker 1: six goals, so he's gonna regress at some point, you know,

608
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 1: towards the mean. Fiorentina doesn't really do a lot of

609
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 1: their scoring from open play. They've had They've scored some

610
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,120
Speaker 1: goals off set pieces, They've had a lot of penalty luck.

611
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 1: Only twenty two of their thirty four goals have come

612
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 1: from open play six penalties, that's third most in Syria A. Also,

613
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 1: their road form has been horrendous and they have a

614
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 1: plus eight point nine expected gold French at home but

615
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 1: minus one point seven expected goald Diffrench on the road.

616
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 1: When these two teams met earlier in the season, Fiorentino

617
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:36,120
Speaker 1: walked away with a two to one win, but only

618
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 1: created point six expected goals and it only had nine

619
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,640
Speaker 1: shots total for the match. So I think it's gonna

620
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 1: be really difficult for them to score against the second

621
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,680
Speaker 1: best defense in syria A. This is one of the

622
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 1: biggest edges I think I've had in syria A this season.

623
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 1: I have Torino projected him as a minus one oh

624
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 1: three favorite and they're currently their john O Bette line

625
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 1: is minus one ten, so I love to Reno pick

626
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:02,400
Speaker 1: at minus one ten and if Fiorentino wins this game,

627
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,120
Speaker 1: I guess they've defeated me for the last time.

628
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 3: Anthony. Anything over the weekend for you in Syria. Yeah,

629
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 3: there's a couple of spots you kind of circle immediately.

630
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 2: Udonessi at home against Adelanta looks like a good spot,

631
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 2: but it depends on how Adelanta plays against to Reno.

632
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 3: Will they be overvalued, will it be a bounced back

633
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 3: spot for them, Same with Toino against Fiorentino.

634
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 2: We have to wait and see how those matches play out.

635
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 2: The one spot I do somewhat like is inter Milan

636
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,439
Speaker 2: against Lazzio under three goals is minus one twenty right

637
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,479
Speaker 2: now at DraftKings, I grab some of that. Inter Milan

638
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 2: excellent offensively, but consistently tends to get overinflated in the

639
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 2: way that they score goals, and they have the ability

640
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 2: to go off at any point, but again a little

641
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 2: over overvalued. It's also a revenge spot for them because

642
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 2: they got pasted when a weird loss to Lazio earlier

643
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 2: in the season, so I think they'll want to, you know,

644
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 2: sett win a little bit defensively and play more solid

645
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 2: at the back. After conceding three to Loatzio. With that

646
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 2: being said, Latso has a ton of attacking regression coming.

647
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 2: I think the most overrated attack in Europe right now,

648
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 2: maybe them or Verona, But that team, especially away from home,

649
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 2: has not been able to control the ball, has not

650
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 2: been able to create chances, and I think they're very overrated.

651
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 2: So I think it's a good good spot for a

652
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 2: sleepy under that inter should win comfortably, But do not

653
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 2: think it's going to be nearly as high scoring in

654
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 2: both teams, not quite as good as that number suggests

655
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 2: at scoring goals.

656
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 3: From Italy, we'll move on to Germany and the Bundesliga

657
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 3: is back as well. I'll kick this section off with

658
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 3: my favorite bet. It's one of us who's going to

659
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 3: do it. It's the tried and true. Bayer Leverkusen fade

660
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 3: their minus bunch twenty five hosting Unyan Berlin, who are

661
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 3: plus three thirty Saturday morning, nine thirty am kickoff. Unyan

662
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 3: third best expectacles against, fourth best goals allowed in the Bundesliga.

663
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 3: They're also third best at preventing big scoring chances. Meanwhile,

664
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 3: Bayer Leverkusen fourteen goals above expected on the season. At

665
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 3: some point this team will come down to earth it

666
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 3: maybe in six years from now when we're all fired

667
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 3: from our jobs for losing so much money betting against them.

668
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 3: But I'm hoping that maybe little bit of it happens

669
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 3: here against Unyan Berlin three to one on a team

670
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 3: with this good of a defense, hopefully they can prevent

671
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 3: this overrated Leverkusen offense from creating enough chances to get

672
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 3: any margin here. So that's where I'm going in the

673
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 3: Bundesliga BJ.

674
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 1: What do you have, Yeah, that overrated offense. The best

675
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 1: striker in the world, Patrick schick Man City is actually

676
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 1: right now, that'd be fun if he actually joined Pep

677
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 1: Cordieola side. Now I'm going with mines plus half, a

678
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 1: goal plus one twenty against Arbiy Leipzig Arby Weipsig. Obviously

679
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 1: they sacked Jesse March about a month ago, but they've

680
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 1: been playing better. In their last three matches. They've created

681
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 1: you know, nine expected goals and that's great, but you

682
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 1: know the clubs they face. They placed Glodbach, who is

683
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 1: just Swiss cheese right now, defensively Augsburg and Armenia b Feld,

684
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 1: so not really the stiffest competition. Now they'll be going

685
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 1: against one of our favorite teams on this podcast and

686
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 1: one of the best defenses in the Bundesliga Mines, who

687
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 1: is only allows one point one two expected goals per match,

688
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 1: that's second behind only Bayern Munich and has allowed only

689
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 1: nine big scoring chances this season, which is the best

690
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 1: mark in the Bundesliga. And that's huge against an rby

691
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 1: Weipzig offense that just creates big scoring chances for fun.

692
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 1: RBY Leipsig's defensive issues, you know, they've had them all

693
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 1: season long. They haven't really gone anywhere they Obviously, they

694
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 1: held Augsburg and Armenia bfil the two point one expected

695
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 1: goals in the last two matches before the break, but

696
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 1: I wouldn't exactly call those issues fixed, you know, since

697
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,719
Speaker 1: those are two of the bottom five offenses in Germany.

698
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 1: In fact, RB Leipzig is allowing a whopping one point

699
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 1: five to seven expected goals per match and of allowed

700
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: the fifth most big scoring chances in the Bundesliga. They

701
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 1: have only held their opponents under one expected goal four

702
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 1: times this season. That is really concerning for a team

703
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 1: that was one of the best defenses in the Bundesliga

704
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 1: last year. MINS beat Arbi Leipzig on opening weekend, and

705
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 1: it was an outstanding defensive performance. They scored in the

706
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: tenth minute and then held RB Leipzig to one point

707
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 1: one expected goals in seventeen shot creating actions, despite Leipzig

708
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:57,959
Speaker 1: having seventy percent possession. I only have Leipzig projected at

709
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 1: minus one oh seven, so I I like value on

710
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 1: minds plus half a goal at plus one.

711
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 3: Twenty Anthony, you're back on the back. On November twenty third,

712
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 3: I said on this podcast that it was a good

713
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 3: time to buy some Glodboch plus five to fifty to

714
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 3: finish top four. Their underlying numbers were much better than

715
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 3: their actual numbers. They were trending in the right direction.

716
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 3: They had just won a few in a row. Now

717
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 3: they had beaten Byron five nil in the Cup.

718
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 2: Since I said that Glodboch has played five matches, they

719
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 2: have lost four, drawn one.

720
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 3: They have conceded nineteen goals. In those five matches, they

721
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 3: have scored five. They lost six nol.

722
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 2: Four to one, four to one, three to two, and

723
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 2: then gave up a Lake goal to draw Hoffenheim one

724
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 2: to one. Now this defense has fallen off a cliff.

725
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 2: But let's think about this number for a second. They're

726
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 2: plus two at Bayern Munich, a fixture they lost six

727
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 2: nil last year. Now you're saying, why am I betting them? Well,

728
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 2: opening day of the season they played each other at

729
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,239
Speaker 2: Parusha Park, Goldboch was plus one.

730
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 3: In that game.

731
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 2: They outplayed Byron for large stretches of the match, almost

732
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 2: won at late, ended up in a draw. Then they

733
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 2: played Byron at home again in the Cup. They were

734
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 2: plus one point five, beat them five to Zilo. Now

735
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 2: they're plus two. Now, I understand it's on the road,

736
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 2: but it's not worth a full goal to go on

737
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 2: the road. And I understand Glodbock is underperformed and Buyern

738
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 2: is overperformed. But the reality of these two teams is

739
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 2: closer to the middle of the expectations than we actually think.

740
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 2: And my projections make them about one point six. So

741
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 2: I can't get too under any circumstance in this game.

742
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 2: On Glodboch, they've been a disaster. Only three teams in

743
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 2: the league have a worse XG difference since October began

744
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 2: than Glodboch.

745
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 3: But again, the XG.

746
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:35,479
Speaker 2: Suggests they're conceding about a quarter goal per match more

747
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 2: than they should be. They're scoring almost half a goal less.

748
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 2: They have some crazy numbers in the sense they're still

749
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 2: in the top eight in difference for the year, yet

750
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 2: they are in the bottom six in the table, so

751
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 2: they've got a lot of regression coming. And look, there's

752
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 2: been a lot of rumors about Addie Hooter's job security,

753
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 2: players like Dennis Zakria maybe leaving. But if you're going

754
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 2: to have an all in effort and your club is

755
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 2: in't a bit of a mess right now, the all

756
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 2: in effort's going to come against Iron Munich, a team

757
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 2: you've had success against in the past. Don't forget they

758
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 2: beat Byron last year too, so they've beaten Byron three

759
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,359
Speaker 2: times in the last six meetings. So at plus two,

760
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 2: I have to take this number. I will be sprinkling

761
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 2: money line because I'm contractually obliged to bet glad Bock

762
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 2: on the money line when they play Byron, and they

763
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 2: could lose by five and I'll look really dumb. But

764
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 2: I love glad Black plus two, and if they play

765
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 2: anywhere near their talent level, it should be probably one

766
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 2: and a.

767
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 3: Half or not too.

768
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 1: I of like Byron, but I agree with all your point.

769
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 3: I dare you to bed Byron, I dare it?

770
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 1: Okay? I mean they're dropping the minus two's dropping. Minus

771
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: two is only plus one hundred at DraftKings right now,

772
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 1: so that drifts to plus one ten. I might have

773
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 1: to play Byron and.

774
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 3: That note, we'll move on to Spain and La Ligue. Anthony.

775
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 3: I'll let you start here. If you got one full

776
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 3: slate of matches coming our way over the weekend. What

777
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:46,359
Speaker 3: do you see here?

778
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 2: Viri Al and Atletico Madrid both teams to score, yes,

779
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 2: minus one ten. I like this more when we did

780
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 2: the podcast prep on Tuesday or Monday morning and VII

781
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 2: out didn't go score five against Lavonte. But this Virial

782
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 2: attack continues to be underrated in the market. The number

783
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 2: seems wrong to me. Should be closer to minus one

784
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,800
Speaker 2: twenty five. Atletico does have defensive aggression coming. They're not

785
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 2: nearly as bad as the goals that they've conceded would suggest.

786
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 3: But this game sets up. It could be dull, it

787
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 3: could be boring.

788
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,359
Speaker 2: But I actually think that the markets is wrong here

789
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 2: and it should be closer to minus one twenty five

790
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:19,399
Speaker 2: one thirty.

791
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,759
Speaker 3: So if you can find that out there, I'd play it.

792
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 3: I don't love a ton on this slate.

793
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 2: Gonna look to fade Sevilla again after they stole a

794
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 2: win against Cadiz where they were barely better than them. Today,

795
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 2: I think they have gatafe so they're minus one in

796
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 2: that match. May take some gatafe plus one as well.

797
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 2: But the first look for me immediately was the vi

798
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 2: Real Atletico Madrid. Both teams to score, yes, minus one ten,

799
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 2: like it to one twenty five.

800
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 3: Bja, you have anything in in La Liga over the weekend.

801
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna stay in that same match. I like

802
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 1: Athletico Madrid drawn no bet at minus one twenty So

803
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:54,799
Speaker 1: Athletico Madrid's defensive numbers have been just incredible. They are

804
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:57,479
Speaker 1: only allowing point seven to two expected goals per match.

805
00:35:57,920 --> 00:35:59,880
Speaker 1: That's not only the best mark in Spain, but that's

806
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 1: the best mark among anybody in Europe's top five leagues.

807
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 1: Right now, They've gone nine straight matches allowing less than

808
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:10,919
Speaker 1: one expected goal. So that's how good Diego Simioni's side

809
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 1: is playing right now. I understand vi Areal has been

810
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 1: just scoring goals for fun, eight point eight expected goals

811
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 1: in the last three thousand, gainst by Kano, a down

812
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 1: Real associated team in Labonte, which is the worst team

813
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 1: in La Liga. The first time that these two teams met,

814
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 1: Athletico completely dominated vi Areal. Despite you know, the score

815
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:32,399
Speaker 1: line ended two to two, but Athletico want unexpected goals

816
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 1: about two to point four and in fact Vril scored

817
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 1: on their only two shots of the entire match. Athletico

818
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 1: out shot them twenty three to two. So for Athletico offense,

819
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: that has been pretty good this season, averaging one point

820
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 1: four expected goals for matches, third in big scoring chances

821
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 1: and shots per ninety. I think this is a good

822
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 1: spot for them to get all three points in the road,

823
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 1: get back hopefully to at least somewhat of assemblance in

824
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 1: the title race, even though it seems like a long

825
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,760
Speaker 1: shot right now. I only have Athletico project at plus

826
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:03,439
Speaker 1: one eleven, so I like their drawn up bet line

827
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 1: at minus one twenty at Viria.

828
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 3: In that game, think it was my luckiest cash of

829
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 3: the year plus a half.

830
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 1: Twenty three to two on shots, even after.

831
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 3: I'd letty got a goal and stop it was like

832
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:14,239
Speaker 3: an own goal on stoppage time to equalize. Felt like

833
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 3: the luckiest bet I'd hit on you still feels that way.

834
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 3: My favorite bet in La Liga is my boys from

835
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 3: Billbao the best country plus one thirty taking on a

836
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:26,960
Speaker 3: Laves bill Bao three zero win today over Osasuna. They

837
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 3: are right up there with some of the unluckiest teams

838
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 3: in Europe according to their expected points versus actual points.

839
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 3: Their second in non penalty expected goals allowed in La Liga,

840
00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 3: their second and big chances allowed top six and most

841
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 3: offensive metrics as well. Yet they are one of the

842
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 3: lower scoring teams in the division, sitting right now at

843
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 3: twenty goals scored in twenty games and seventeen goals allowed. Yeah,

844
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 3: they went into the game today against Osasuna with an

845
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 3: even goal differential despite being about plus ten in terms

846
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:00,359
Speaker 3: of their expected goal differential. So Billboo, I think they're

847
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 3: just gonna continue to be underrated. So give me them

848
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,360
Speaker 3: plus one thirty against an Elavis team that is not

849
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 3: very good of course, any metric that we look at,

850
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 3: So I think that you're getting a pretty good number

851
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 3: here on lost leone. So this number may dip after

852
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 3: this performance, but I think you know, plus one twenty

853
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:18,839
Speaker 3: are better on bill Bao is pretty good league. Also

854
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:21,799
Speaker 3: back this weekend, BJ, what do you have for us

855
00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:22,240
Speaker 3: in France?

856
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 1: Well, it's just, you know, it's like a broken record now.

857
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 3: But let's go back to Lil.

858
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go play something a little different here with

859
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:30,800
Speaker 1: them taking on one of the worst teams in France, Lorient.

860
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:32,839
Speaker 1: I'm gonna play them to win nil or to win

861
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:36,120
Speaker 1: in a shutout at plus one thirty five. The little

862
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:39,239
Speaker 1: defensive numbers, I mean, they're still incredible. Only point nine

863
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,439
Speaker 1: to three non penalty expectacles led for match, only eleven

864
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 1: big scoring chances allowed this season. That's the best mark

865
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 1: in France. Now they're going against the Lorient side that

866
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 1: is dead last in big scoring chances created. They've only

867
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 1: scored three times in their last eight matches and they've

868
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:55,479
Speaker 1: also lost nine of their last eleven matches in league

869
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 1: on play. Lil is unbeaten in their last eleven matches

870
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 1: and all competitions, and their offense has been on fire,

871
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:04,280
Speaker 1: averaging one point nine expected goals per match, while Lorient

872
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:06,920
Speaker 1: is a bottom five defense in every single metric that

873
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 1: we look at. I think this is a great spot

874
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 1: for Lil to get a nice little three nil pasting.

875
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:14,240
Speaker 1: So Lil to win nil at plus.

876
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:16,279
Speaker 3: One thirty five, and Anthony, you have something for us

877
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:17,320
Speaker 3: too right, yeah.

878
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 2: La mat leism po and BJ betting on Lele death

879
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 2: taxes and BJ betting on Lele yep, just beautiful.

880
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 3: May join you on that again. I joined you last

881
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 3: week and they won, so that was cool stopping.

882
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 2: But my team and they are officially I have declared

883
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 2: them the biggest luckbox in all of Europe. Montpellier absolute

884
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:42,920
Speaker 2: joke numbers fifth in the league, despite an attack that

885
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 2: suggests their bottom ten. Their actual goal difference is plus nine.

886
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 2: Their expected goals is way worse than that. We'll be

887
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 2: fitting them at some point, either going to go under

888
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 2: two and a half or we're going to take Troy

889
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 2: plus a half this weekend. They must not get away

890
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:58,000
Speaker 2: with this forever. Don't bet league on a ton, but

891
00:39:58,120 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 2: I know a luckbox when I see one.

892
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,319
Speaker 3: To fade them with that, we'll move on to our

893
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 3: favorite underdogs, and as always I will warn you that

894
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:06,840
Speaker 3: these bets are not for the fantom heart. They are

895
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 3: underdogs for a reason. But we can't look away from

896
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 3: certain teams at certain prices on this show, and Anthony,

897
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:16,760
Speaker 3: you can't look away from one team in particular, Totenham

898
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 3: Tip took Tottenham plus two eighty against Chelsea and the

899
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 3: Carabell Cup. I think this is a free role.

900
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 2: You either have Spurs at a relatively good number plus

901
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 2: two eighty and the way they've been playing, they've been

902
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 2: one of the three best teams in England on recent form,

903
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 2: and you're getting a potential that Chelsea plays an incredibly

904
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 2: weak team in the first leg of the semi final

905
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 2: and doesn't really care and then the price drops considerably,

906
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 2: So I'd lock it in now. But I like Spurs

907
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:44,800
Speaker 2: plus two to eighty on the money line in the

908
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 2: Carabell Cup.

909
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 3: EJ what's your favorite underdog this weekend?

910
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 1: I love who's been an underdog his entire life, the

911
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:56,279
Speaker 1: Special One Jose Mourinho and Roma plus two twenty at

912
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 1: home against U Ventis this weekend. We kind of already

913
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:01,800
Speaker 1: spoke up both these team games. But Roma unbelievable offense

914
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:04,160
Speaker 1: one point six non penalty expect goals for match second

915
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:07,799
Speaker 1: and big scoring chances second in shots per ninety Going

916
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 1: up against a Juventus offense that you know has been

917
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 1: struggling kind of a tad, you know, the Leonardo B.

918
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:16,360
Speaker 1: Panucci third most expected goals created on the team. Alvar

919
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:19,279
Speaker 1: Morata might be leaving for Barcelona by the time you

920
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 1: know this match is being played. Juventus also really struggles

921
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,399
Speaker 1: when they have to play a good defense in five

922
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 1: matches versus the top six defenses in Italy by expected goals,

923
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:31,720
Speaker 1: so that's Napoli, Terreno, AC Milan, Inter and Roma. Uventus

924
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 1: only created five point five expected goals and the last

925
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:37,840
Speaker 1: time these two teams met, Juventus kind of stole a

926
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 1: one to zero win against Roma. Roma kind of dominated

927
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,919
Speaker 1: them one on expected goals one point four to point eight,

928
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:47,479
Speaker 1: had more shot creating actions, more touches in the penalty area.

929
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 1: This is a great spot for Roma, who I think

930
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,280
Speaker 1: is a little undervalued here. I only have them projected

931
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:55,399
Speaker 1: around you know, plus one eighty. So give me Jose

932
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,799
Speaker 1: Mourinho again for the second straight time in about three

933
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 1: days to grab all three points for me.

934
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:05,600
Speaker 3: Unyan Berlin plus three thirty taking on bayer Leverkusen a

935
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:09,840
Speaker 3: terrific defense in Unyan Berlin. Like I said, they were

936
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 3: ranking top four in basically every defensive metric in Bundesliga,

937
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 3: and then you got bayer Leverkusen, an offense that is

938
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 3: due for some major aggression. They've scored ten more goals

939
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 3: above their x G this season. So I'll take a

940
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 3: shot at a good number here plus three thirty against

941
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 3: the team that we like to fade on this show.

942
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:29,720
Speaker 3: That's Byer Leverkusen, so Unjan Berlin, Tottenham Hotspur over the midweek,

943
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 3: and then Roma this weekend over Juventus. You parlay all

944
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 3: three of those teams together, you're looking at a fifty

945
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:38,799
Speaker 3: to one ticket if all three get the job done,

946
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 3: which they won't, but that is gonna be fun anyways.

947
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 3: It'll be a fun one to lose. All right. Let's

948
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 3: move on to our best bets. Were red hot in

949
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 3: this section of the show, so we'll try to keep

950
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,760
Speaker 3: it going for me. Talked about it a little bit earlier.

951
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:56,799
Speaker 3: Athletic Billboo plus one thirty five over Elavis in La

952
00:42:56,880 --> 00:43:00,280
Speaker 3: Liga this weekend. Bill Bao not only is their defense

953
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:03,760
Speaker 3: one of the best units in La Liga, their offense

954
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 3: top six in most underlying metrics that we look at.

955
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 3: This team is due to go on a run at

956
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 3: some point. They should start surging up the Laaliga standings,

957
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 3: but they just haven't been able to piece together the

958
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 3: consistency yet, and I like them to start doing it now.

959
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 3: They're coming off a three zero win over Osasuna and

960
00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:23,760
Speaker 3: the midweek, and I like them to carry that momentum

961
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,880
Speaker 3: here against a team that rates out very poorly in

962
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 3: both offensive and defensive XG numbers. So give me Los

963
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:34,800
Speaker 3: Leones plus one thirty five over A Laves this weekend.

964
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 1: BJ. What is your best bet Torino Drono bett and

965
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 1: minus one ten against Fiorentina on Sunday. This is the

966
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 1: line in the sand game for me. Torino is one

967
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:48,320
Speaker 1: of the best defensive teams in Syria A second and

968
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:50,839
Speaker 1: non penalty expected goals doesn't allow a lot of big

969
00:43:50,880 --> 00:43:54,359
Speaker 1: scoring chances. Fiorentina was a highly overrated team for most

970
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 1: of the season. They've steadily been improving their expected goals numbers,

971
00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 1: but when they have face good defenses, they tend to

972
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 1: crumble offensively. Against Napoli, Torino, AC Milan, Inter, Juventus and Roma,

973
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 1: essentially top six teams by expected goals allowed in Syria A,

974
00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 1: they're only averaging one point zero three expected goals for match.

975
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:15,680
Speaker 1: When they play the rest of Syria, they average one

976
00:44:15,719 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 1: point eight four expected goals from match, so a pretty

977
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:20,360
Speaker 1: big gap when they have to actually face good competition.

978
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:24,600
Speaker 1: Fiorentina has Sira's leading goal scorer Dussan Vlahovic. He has

979
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 1: scored sixteen goals this season, but only off of eleven expected,

980
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:29,759
Speaker 1: so he's going to regress the mean at some point

981
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:31,920
Speaker 1: this year and probably going to come against one of

982
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 1: the best defenses in Italy. Fiorentina kind of been a

983
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 1: luckbox in terms of actually how they score their goals.

984
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 1: Only twenty two of their thirty four goals have come

985
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 1: from open play. They've been benefited a lot of penalties,

986
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 1: scored a couple goals off of corners and set pieces.

987
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:47,399
Speaker 1: That's not really going to happen against a Torino team

988
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:50,800
Speaker 1: that's excellent against set pieces. Fiorentina not very good on

989
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 1: the road compared to how they are at home plus

990
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:55,759
Speaker 1: eight point nine expect gold differential at home versus a

991
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 1: minus one point seven expected gold differential on the road.

992
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 1: So give me to Reno drawn no Bett at minus

993
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 1: one ten at.

994
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 3: Home and Anthony bring us home Rushia Mouching Gladbach plus

995
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 3: two on the road at Bayern Munich Friday afternoon.

996
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 2: I cannot get to two on this number. My projections

997
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 2: make Glodbock about a one point six goal underdog. They

998
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 2: closed plus one at home against Byron an opening day.

999
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 2: They closed plus one and a half at home in

1000
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 2: the Cup match they played earlier this year. Gladbak's had

1001
00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 2: a lot of success against Byron in the past. I

1002
00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:32,439
Speaker 2: know they've been an abject disaster in the Bundesliga. They've

1003
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:35,319
Speaker 2: been the fourth worst team in the league. Only three

1004
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 2: teams have been worse by expected goals since October began.

1005
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 2: They've been leaking goals defensively. But this squad has way

1006
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 2: too much talent to stay down forever. They have a

1007
00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 2: ton of attacking regression coming in that they've conceded about

1008
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:49,759
Speaker 2: point twenty five goals more than they should have per

1009
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 2: match this year, and they've underperformed their attacking numbers by

1010
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:56,800
Speaker 2: about zero point four point five goals per ninety So

1011
00:45:56,920 --> 00:45:59,399
Speaker 2: this team has a ton of attacking regression coming.

1012
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 3: Hopefully it comes on Friday at Byron. They've had a

1013
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:04,359
Speaker 3: lot of success against them before, and I think they

1014
00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:08,360
Speaker 3: will keep this competitive at Byron plus two. I like

1015
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 3: Gladbach and that'll do it for this week's only episode

1016
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:14,239
Speaker 3: of Wonder Goal. Like I said, with the Premier League

1017
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 3: being off this weekend in lieu of the f A Cup,

1018
00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:19,719
Speaker 3: we won't be back on Thursday morning, but instead we

1019
00:46:19,760 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 3: will see you on Monday, So until then, For Anthony Dubundo,

1020
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 3: for DJ Cunningham, I'm Michael Leebough. Good luck with your

1021
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:26,960
Speaker 3: bets this week and this weekend,