Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Last week, Donald Trump
Speaker 1: was once again elected President of the United States, and every.
Speaker 2: Sentien, I will fight for you, for your family, and
Speaker 2: your future. Every single day, I will be fighting for
Speaker 2: you and with you.
Speaker 1: In his victory speech last week, President elect Donald Trump
Speaker 1: talked big on what his second term in the White
Speaker 1: House is going to look like, and leaders around the
Speaker 1: world were listening carefully.
Speaker 2: I will govern by a simple motto. Promises made, promises kept.
Speaker 2: We're going to keep our promises.
Speaker 1: Many of those promises take aim at Asia, home to
Speaker 1: some of the world's biggest and most powerful economies, and
Speaker 1: if Trump's first term in office is any indication, it's
Speaker 1: no surprise that countries in Asia are bracing for a
Speaker 1: bumpy ride ahead. In his first term as president, Trump
Speaker 1: imposed a raft of tariffs on goods imported from China.
Speaker 1: He met with Kim Jong un, the leader of North Korea,
Speaker 1: and called the coronavirus the Chinese virus. But is Trump's
Speaker 1: second term going to be as dramatic for Asian economies
Speaker 1: as the first, and how are leaders in the region
Speaker 1: preparing for what's to come. We'll dig into these questions
Speaker 1: in a Roundtable discussion. Welcome to the Big Take Asia
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha today on the show Trump
Speaker 1: Part two. What will his second term mean for China,
Speaker 1: India and other Asian economies, and how countries are bracing
Speaker 1: for a bumpy ride ahead from higher tariffs to potential
Speaker 1: geopolitical flare ups.
Speaker 2: Thank you very much. Wow.
Speaker 1: Trump presidency and his economic plans will affect countries all
Speaker 1: over the world, but one of the most impacted countries
Speaker 1: will almost certainly be China, the world's second largest economy.
Speaker 1: During Trump's first term, China was hammered with tariffs taxes
Speaker 1: the Trump administration put on Chinese imports to the US
Speaker 1: on everything from salad spinners to computer chips. Trump has
Speaker 1: talked about tariffs a lot on the campaign trail, saying
Speaker 1: taxing Chinese imports will help protect American manufacturers, farmers, and
Speaker 1: entrepreneurs from lower priced competitors.
Speaker 2: You're going to have protection from them coming in because
Speaker 2: we're going to put on from fifty to two hundred
Speaker 2: percent tariffs.
Speaker 1: Trump began putting tariffs on more than three hundred and
Speaker 1: sixty billion dollars of Chinese goods in twenty eighteen, but Now,
Speaker 1: China's economy is in a much more fragile state than
Speaker 1: it was back then. It's been struggling to recover from
Speaker 1: major setbacks, from a property second crisis to paralyzing COVID lockdowns.
Speaker 1: So I invited Daniel ten Kate, Bloomberg's executive editor for
Speaker 1: Asia Economy and Government, to the studio. Dan, if you
Speaker 1: were president Shi Jinping, you wake up the day after
Speaker 1: the US election and you see that Trump's won, What's
Speaker 1: the first thing that goes through your mind?
Speaker 3: Here we go again. China prefers stability, and I think
Speaker 3: for a lot of officials in Beijing that's the one
Speaker 3: thing that they don't like about Trump unpredictability. With Biden,
Speaker 3: they didn't necessarily like his policies, it wasn't great, but
Speaker 3: it was at least stable. With Trump, that's all out
Speaker 3: the window.
Speaker 1: Well, Trump is full of surprises. He's also spoken highly
Speaker 1: of she himself and has even called him a friend.
Speaker 1: How might that relationship play out? Now?
Speaker 3: You know, Trump likes to be friends with a lot
Speaker 3: of leaders around the world, particularly leaders that are considered
Speaker 3: strong manner, more authoritarian. Kim jungu was in that category.
Speaker 3: Vladimir Putin was in that category. She's in Ping is
Speaker 3: in that category. Trump talks glowingly about how this one
Speaker 3: guy can control more than a billion people and expressing
Speaker 3: admiration there. He has a respect for she in a way,
Speaker 3: calling him a friend is a bit. He's a friend
Speaker 3: when he needs something or he wants to use it
Speaker 3: for his own benefit. And then, of course, if there's
Speaker 3: something like COVID comes along, then he's happy to just
Speaker 3: throw him under the bus.
Speaker 1: Well. The first thing that China needs to navigate is
Speaker 1: probably the prospect of more tariffs. Right Trump has threatened
Speaker 1: to impose additional tariffs of sixty percent or more on
Speaker 1: Chinese goods. If he does follow through. How badly would
Speaker 1: that hurt China's economy.
Speaker 3: There's varying estimates on the and certainly it would knock
Speaker 3: at least a couple points off annual growth. China's got
Speaker 3: a few things going for It has taken some steps
Speaker 3: to insulate itself. It has diversified its export base since
Speaker 3: Trump came to power, so it's not selling as many
Speaker 3: goods to the US value wised as it did earlier.
Speaker 3: So there's some people who think that it won't be.
Speaker 1: That bad, And of course, raising tariffs on Chinese goods
Speaker 1: also means prices are likely going to rise for American
Speaker 1: consumers too.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's where the Chinese policy makers are saying, like, Okay,
Speaker 3: is he serious here, because if you did something like
Speaker 3: that and not only the sixty percent tariff but also
Speaker 3: the universal tariff of ten to twenty percent around the world,
Speaker 3: that's ten to twenty percent at least, that everything's going
Speaker 3: to cost more. And the question is, Okay, what does
Speaker 3: Trump want this time around? That's a bit unclear, right now,
Speaker 3: that's right.
Speaker 1: And what about the question of you know, we'll China
Speaker 1: fight back. I mean, we'll try to find a way
Speaker 1: to get back at the US if it raises tariffs
Speaker 1: that high.
Speaker 3: Yeah. If you see, during the first trade war, China
Speaker 3: was very reluctant to fight back in a way that
Speaker 3: my blow back at them. They were very careful to
Speaker 3: make sure that it didn't really hurt the overall investment
Speaker 3: environment and everything else. China has since gotten a lot
Speaker 3: more tools in its toolkit. They have an easier legal
Speaker 3: process to go after particular companies, so certain American companies
Speaker 3: that could be targets. There's also export controls that they have.
Speaker 3: China still controls the trade of key critical minerals that
Speaker 3: are used in advanced technology, so we could see China
Speaker 3: do more on trying to fight fire with fire there,
Speaker 3: But essentially everything China would do to fight back is
Speaker 3: like when you're in a fight and someone tries to
Speaker 3: decap you and you try to neecap them back, but
Speaker 3: it basically hurts both sides. So they're trying to make
Speaker 3: it so okay. We can show the US that if
Speaker 3: you hit us here, we're also going to hit you there,
Speaker 3: and then we're both going to suffer, and therefore let's
Speaker 3: just not hit each other and find a way forward.
Speaker 3: I think that's a preferred option for she.
Speaker 1: Well, tension still is inevitable. There are questions whether we
Speaker 1: would see conflicts between China and Taiwan under Trump administration.
Speaker 1: Right the US said that China is on track to
Speaker 1: be ready to invade Taiwan by twenty twenty seven. Trump
Speaker 1: has said that Taiwan should pay for US protection. Should
Speaker 1: we then expect to see a more emboldened China ahead.
Speaker 3: I mean, I think China has a very clear policy,
Speaker 3: which is we want to tighten the news around Taiwan,
Speaker 3: and so I think they'll continue to do that on
Speaker 3: the military side. If Trump were to lean toward encouraging
Speaker 3: the current Taiwanese president lie in power, that would probably
Speaker 3: encourage China to get tougher on Taiwan. That's just the
Speaker 3: pattern that we've seen in the past. If Trump is
Speaker 3: a little bit hostile towards Taiwan, then there wouldn't actually
Speaker 3: be as much reason for China to do anything. So
Speaker 3: it's a bit paradoxical in that sense.
Speaker 1: Is there anything potentially good for China from Trump being
Speaker 1: back in the White House?
Speaker 3: Yeah, for China, you could cut a deal with Trump
Speaker 3: that kind of breaks through a lot of the stalemate
Speaker 3: in the spiral ling that we've seen in the US
Speaker 3: China relationship. Trump sort of broke ties, but he can
Speaker 3: also put them back again. And Trump doesn't mind flipping.
Speaker 3: So for China that could potentially be a very good
Speaker 3: thing in changing the way US China relations works for good.
Speaker 3: So yeah, big downside, but also potentially a big upside
Speaker 3: for China.
Speaker 1: Trump's policies and economic plans will have a massive impact
Speaker 1: throughout Asia, far beyond just China. After the break, we
Speaker 1: look at some of the other Asian countries that can
Speaker 1: expect big changes under our new Trump administration. Under a
Speaker 1: second Trump administration, a more intense US China rivalry could
Speaker 1: create pockets of opportunities and risks for other Asian nations.
Speaker 1: To explore what it means on the ground here in Asia,
Speaker 1: we spoke to two experts on the region's diplomacy and economics.
Speaker 2: My name is Chan Hung Chi, and I'm an Ambassador
Speaker 2: at Large in Singapore and a professor at the Singapore
Speaker 2: University of Technology and Design.
Speaker 4: My name is Aaron Murphy and I am currently the
Speaker 4: Deputy Director and Senior Fellow for the Chair in India
Speaker 4: and Emerging Asia Economics at the Center for Strategic and
Speaker 4: International Studies. I'm based in Washington, d C.
Speaker 1: Professor Chant, Let's start with you, are there any clear
Speaker 1: winners or losers in Asia with Trump returning?
Speaker 2: Asia has worked with a Trump administration before. We would
Speaker 2: know that with President Trump's second administration we will have
Speaker 2: higher towers, and I think we've ourselves with that. I
Speaker 2: think the Trump administration has a very clear proposal. He
Speaker 2: is for reversing the flows of trades so that the
Speaker 2: US is not a clear loser, as he would say. Now,
Speaker 2: other countries, of course, are very anxious, especially developing countries.
Speaker 2: We would not like to see the model change, but
Speaker 2: clearly it's got to be tweaked. The question is how
Speaker 2: I think Our concern is that with tariffs, extreme tariffs
Speaker 2: being imposed, it can create a contagious influence and you
Speaker 2: have contagious protectionism. Big countries can be protectionists and it's fine.
Speaker 2: The middle and small countries will really have to look around.
Speaker 2: We have done many things. For instance, regions have formed
Speaker 2: regional subgroupings of trade partners, diversified supply chain away from China.
Speaker 2: Some of the trade and the investments in those two
Speaker 2: areas have come into Southeast Asia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia is
Speaker 2: our winners. Many would say Southeast Asia is a clear
Speaker 2: winner here, but I guess for how long and how much.
Speaker 4: I think the professor makes a great point. But one
Speaker 4: country that I think will also continue to win is
Speaker 4: probably India. I think part of that is the strong
Speaker 4: relationship and the personal relationship between Mody and Trump. Mody
Speaker 4: was one of the first to congratulate Trump on his win.
Speaker 4: So I think India will continue to win and continue
Speaker 4: to be in the good graces of the United States.
Speaker 1: So Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump clearly share close
Speaker 1: ties and certainly a lot of parallels have been drawn
Speaker 1: between the two leaders. Does this all bode well for
Speaker 1: India with Trump back in the White House or are
Speaker 1: there also some points of contention.
Speaker 4: Where things might get challenging. Is that Money has his
Speaker 4: own made in India policy that could run into Made
Speaker 4: in America policies as well, so that will certainly have
Speaker 4: to be ironed out. There's certainly things that they can
Speaker 4: agree on, including diversifying the supply chains, trying to decouple
Speaker 4: from China, and if there's anything that Trump would appreciate
Speaker 4: is that it's India's stance on China.
Speaker 1: So looking forward, what do you think will be different
Speaker 1: about these next four years with Trump?
Speaker 2: I think we should expect the unexpected. I think that's
Speaker 2: simplest way of saying this, and we should not be
Speaker 2: surprised to see extremes of action. What he does with
Speaker 2: China is something everybody is I think, waiting to see
Speaker 2: where that leads. I do not know, but I would
Speaker 2: say that in my part of the world, Southeast Asia,
Speaker 2: we're really watching that relationship because what happens to the
Speaker 2: US China relationship were really impact set the toll for
Speaker 2: relationships in the region.
Speaker 1: And is there a sense that we're going to see
Speaker 1: a more fractured world for the next four years.
Speaker 2: We are nervous of how the world would turn out.
Speaker 2: Could be more fractured, it's certainly going to be more
Speaker 2: noisy and with everyone guessing the direction. We have been
Speaker 2: used to a certain predictability, but with Trump administration is
Speaker 2: less predictable, but that is also his advantage in dealing
Speaker 2: with other countries.
Speaker 4: I agree that we're getting into a more fractured world,
Speaker 4: but we're also in a period of transition which makes
Speaker 4: everything a lot more chaotic and noisy. And already the
Speaker 4: post World War two, the so called rules based order,
Speaker 4: which created the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the
Speaker 4: World Trade Organization. These systems that were to promote growth
Speaker 4: and prevent world wars are kind of creaking under the
Speaker 4: expansion of economies. But we're also going through another industrial
Speaker 4: revolution with critical technologies and emerging tech AI quantum computing,
Speaker 4: and that's going to have a huge effect on labor.
Speaker 4: And then you add to this the unpredictability, the crisis
Speaker 4: in the Middle East, the Ukraine, war and it just
Speaker 4: makes everything very nerve racking. Again. It's not very fun
Speaker 4: to live in unprecedented times. But here we are, and
Speaker 4: you know, there we go.
Speaker 1: This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha.
Speaker 1: If you'd like to hear more about Bloomberg's coverage on
Speaker 1: the economic impact of Trump's return to the White House,
Speaker 1: check out the conversation on our Big Take Feed. This
Speaker 1: episode was produced by Young Young Jessica Beck and Naomi
Speaker 1: mum It was mixed by Alex Sugira and fact checked
Speaker 1: by Adriana Tapia. It was edited by Stacy Vaneck Smith
Speaker 1: and words Name. Miss Shaven is our senior producer, Elizabeth
Speaker 1: Anso is our senior editor, Nicole Beemster Bower is our
Speaker 1: executive producer, and Sage Bauman is Boomberg's head of Podcasts.
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