WEBVTT - Another Trump Term Is Coming. Is Asia Ready?

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Last week, Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>was once again elected President of the United States, and every.

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<v Speaker 2>Sentien, I will fight for you, for your family, and

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<v Speaker 2>your future. Every single day, I will be fighting for

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<v Speaker 2>you and with you.

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<v Speaker 1>In his victory speech last week, President elect Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>talked big on what his second term in the White

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<v Speaker 1>House is going to look like, and leaders around the

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<v Speaker 1>world were listening carefully.

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<v Speaker 2>I will govern by a simple motto. Promises made, promises kept.

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<v Speaker 2>We're going to keep our promises.

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<v Speaker 1>Many of those promises take aim at Asia, home to

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<v Speaker 1>some of the world's biggest and most powerful economies, and

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<v Speaker 1>if Trump's first term in office is any indication, it's

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<v Speaker 1>no surprise that countries in Asia are bracing for a

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<v Speaker 1>bumpy ride ahead. In his first term as president, Trump

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<v Speaker 1>imposed a raft of tariffs on goods imported from China.

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<v Speaker 1>He met with Kim Jong un, the leader of North Korea,

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<v Speaker 1>and called the coronavirus the Chinese virus. But is Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>second term going to be as dramatic for Asian economies

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<v Speaker 1>as the first, and how are leaders in the region

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<v Speaker 1>preparing for what's to come. We'll dig into these questions

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<v Speaker 1>in a Roundtable discussion. Welcome to the Big Take Asia

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<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha today on the show Trump

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<v Speaker 1>Part two. What will his second term mean for China,

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<v Speaker 1>India and other Asian economies, and how countries are bracing

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<v Speaker 1>for a bumpy ride ahead from higher tariffs to potential

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<v Speaker 1>geopolitical flare ups.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you very much. Wow.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump presidency and his economic plans will affect countries all

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<v Speaker 1>over the world, but one of the most impacted countries

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<v Speaker 1>will almost certainly be China, the world's second largest economy.

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<v Speaker 1>During Trump's first term, China was hammered with tariffs taxes

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<v Speaker 1>the Trump administration put on Chinese imports to the US

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<v Speaker 1>on everything from salad spinners to computer chips. Trump has

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<v Speaker 1>talked about tariffs a lot on the campaign trail, saying

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<v Speaker 1>taxing Chinese imports will help protect American manufacturers, farmers, and

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<v Speaker 1>entrepreneurs from lower priced competitors.

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<v Speaker 2>You're going to have protection from them coming in because

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to put on from fifty to two hundred

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<v Speaker 2>percent tariffs.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump began putting tariffs on more than three hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>sixty billion dollars of Chinese goods in twenty eighteen, but Now,

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<v Speaker 1>China's economy is in a much more fragile state than

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<v Speaker 1>it was back then. It's been struggling to recover from

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<v Speaker 1>major setbacks, from a property second crisis to paralyzing COVID lockdowns.

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<v Speaker 1>So I invited Daniel ten Kate, Bloomberg's executive editor for

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<v Speaker 1>Asia Economy and Government, to the studio. Dan, if you

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<v Speaker 1>were president Shi Jinping, you wake up the day after

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<v Speaker 1>the US election and you see that Trump's won, What's

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<v Speaker 1>the first thing that goes through your mind?

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<v Speaker 3>Here we go again. China prefers stability, and I think

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<v Speaker 3>for a lot of officials in Beijing that's the one

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<v Speaker 3>thing that they don't like about Trump unpredictability. With Biden,

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<v Speaker 3>they didn't necessarily like his policies, it wasn't great, but

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<v Speaker 3>it was at least stable. With Trump, that's all out

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<v Speaker 3>the window.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Trump is full of surprises. He's also spoken highly

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<v Speaker 1>of she himself and has even called him a friend.

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<v Speaker 1>How might that relationship play out? Now?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, Trump likes to be friends with a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of leaders around the world, particularly leaders that are considered

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<v Speaker 3>strong manner, more authoritarian. Kim jungu was in that category.

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<v Speaker 3>Vladimir Putin was in that category. She's in Ping is

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<v Speaker 3>in that category. Trump talks glowingly about how this one

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<v Speaker 3>guy can control more than a billion people and expressing

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<v Speaker 3>admiration there. He has a respect for she in a way,

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<v Speaker 3>calling him a friend is a bit. He's a friend

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<v Speaker 3>when he needs something or he wants to use it

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<v Speaker 3>for his own benefit. And then, of course, if there's

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<v Speaker 3>something like COVID comes along, then he's happy to just

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<v Speaker 3>throw him under the bus.

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<v Speaker 1>Well. The first thing that China needs to navigate is

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<v Speaker 1>probably the prospect of more tariffs. Right Trump has threatened

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<v Speaker 1>to impose additional tariffs of sixty percent or more on

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese goods. If he does follow through. How badly would

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<v Speaker 1>that hurt China's economy.

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<v Speaker 3>There's varying estimates on the and certainly it would knock

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<v Speaker 3>at least a couple points off annual growth. China's got

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<v Speaker 3>a few things going for It has taken some steps

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<v Speaker 3>to insulate itself. It has diversified its export base since

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<v Speaker 3>Trump came to power, so it's not selling as many

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<v Speaker 3>goods to the US value wised as it did earlier.

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<v Speaker 3>So there's some people who think that it won't be.

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<v Speaker 1>That bad, And of course, raising tariffs on Chinese goods

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<v Speaker 1>also means prices are likely going to rise for American

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<v Speaker 1>consumers too.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and that's where the Chinese policy makers are saying, like, Okay,

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<v Speaker 3>is he serious here, because if you did something like

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<v Speaker 3>that and not only the sixty percent tariff but also

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<v Speaker 3>the universal tariff of ten to twenty percent around the world,

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<v Speaker 3>that's ten to twenty percent at least, that everything's going

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<v Speaker 3>to cost more. And the question is, Okay, what does

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<v Speaker 3>Trump want this time around? That's a bit unclear, right now,

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<v Speaker 3>that's right.

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<v Speaker 1>And what about the question of you know, we'll China

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<v Speaker 1>fight back. I mean, we'll try to find a way

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<v Speaker 1>to get back at the US if it raises tariffs

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<v Speaker 1>that high.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah. If you see, during the first trade war, China

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<v Speaker 3>was very reluctant to fight back in a way that

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<v Speaker 3>my blow back at them. They were very careful to

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<v Speaker 3>make sure that it didn't really hurt the overall investment

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<v Speaker 3>environment and everything else. China has since gotten a lot

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<v Speaker 3>more tools in its toolkit. They have an easier legal

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<v Speaker 3>process to go after particular companies, so certain American companies

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<v Speaker 3>that could be targets. There's also export controls that they have.

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<v Speaker 3>China still controls the trade of key critical minerals that

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<v Speaker 3>are used in advanced technology, so we could see China

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<v Speaker 3>do more on trying to fight fire with fire there,

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<v Speaker 3>But essentially everything China would do to fight back is

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<v Speaker 3>like when you're in a fight and someone tries to

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<v Speaker 3>decap you and you try to neecap them back, but

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<v Speaker 3>it basically hurts both sides. So they're trying to make

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<v Speaker 3>it so okay. We can show the US that if

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<v Speaker 3>you hit us here, we're also going to hit you there,

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<v Speaker 3>and then we're both going to suffer, and therefore let's

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<v Speaker 3>just not hit each other and find a way forward.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's a preferred option for she.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, tension still is inevitable. There are questions whether we

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<v Speaker 1>would see conflicts between China and Taiwan under Trump administration.

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<v Speaker 1>Right the US said that China is on track to

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<v Speaker 1>be ready to invade Taiwan by twenty twenty seven. Trump

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<v Speaker 1>has said that Taiwan should pay for US protection. Should

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<v Speaker 1>we then expect to see a more emboldened China ahead.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, I think China has a very clear policy,

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<v Speaker 3>which is we want to tighten the news around Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 3>and so I think they'll continue to do that on

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<v Speaker 3>the military side. If Trump were to lean toward encouraging

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<v Speaker 3>the current Taiwanese president lie in power, that would probably

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<v Speaker 3>encourage China to get tougher on Taiwan. That's just the

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<v Speaker 3>pattern that we've seen in the past. If Trump is

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<v Speaker 3>a little bit hostile towards Taiwan, then there wouldn't actually

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<v Speaker 3>be as much reason for China to do anything. So

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<v Speaker 3>it's a bit paradoxical in that sense.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there anything potentially good for China from Trump being

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<v Speaker 1>back in the White House?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, for China, you could cut a deal with Trump

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<v Speaker 3>that kind of breaks through a lot of the stalemate

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<v Speaker 3>in the spiral ling that we've seen in the US

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<v Speaker 3>China relationship. Trump sort of broke ties, but he can

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<v Speaker 3>also put them back again. And Trump doesn't mind flipping.

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<v Speaker 3>So for China that could potentially be a very good

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<v Speaker 3>thing in changing the way US China relations works for good.

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<v Speaker 3>So yeah, big downside, but also potentially a big upside

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<v Speaker 3>for China.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's policies and economic plans will have a massive impact

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<v Speaker 1>throughout Asia, far beyond just China. After the break, we

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<v Speaker 1>look at some of the other Asian countries that can

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<v Speaker 1>expect big changes under our new Trump administration. Under a

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<v Speaker 1>second Trump administration, a more intense US China rivalry could

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<v Speaker 1>create pockets of opportunities and risks for other Asian nations.

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<v Speaker 1>To explore what it means on the ground here in Asia,

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<v Speaker 1>we spoke to two experts on the region's diplomacy and economics.

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<v Speaker 2>My name is Chan Hung Chi, and I'm an Ambassador

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<v Speaker 2>at Large in Singapore and a professor at the Singapore

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<v Speaker 2>University of Technology and Design.

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<v Speaker 4>My name is Aaron Murphy and I am currently the

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<v Speaker 4>Deputy Director and Senior Fellow for the Chair in India

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<v Speaker 4>and Emerging Asia Economics at the Center for Strategic and

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<v Speaker 4>International Studies. I'm based in Washington, d C.

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<v Speaker 1>Professor Chant, Let's start with you, are there any clear

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<v Speaker 1>winners or losers in Asia with Trump returning?

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<v Speaker 2>Asia has worked with a Trump administration before. We would

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<v Speaker 2>know that with President Trump's second administration we will have

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<v Speaker 2>higher towers, and I think we've ourselves with that. I

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<v Speaker 2>think the Trump administration has a very clear proposal. He

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<v Speaker 2>is for reversing the flows of trades so that the

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<v Speaker 2>US is not a clear loser, as he would say. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>other countries, of course, are very anxious, especially developing countries.

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<v Speaker 2>We would not like to see the model change, but

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<v Speaker 2>clearly it's got to be tweaked. The question is how

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<v Speaker 2>I think Our concern is that with tariffs, extreme tariffs

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<v Speaker 2>being imposed, it can create a contagious influence and you

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<v Speaker 2>have contagious protectionism. Big countries can be protectionists and it's fine.

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<v Speaker 2>The middle and small countries will really have to look around.

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<v Speaker 2>We have done many things. For instance, regions have formed

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<v Speaker 2>regional subgroupings of trade partners, diversified supply chain away from China.

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<v Speaker 2>Some of the trade and the investments in those two

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<v Speaker 2>areas have come into Southeast Asia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia is

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<v Speaker 2>our winners. Many would say Southeast Asia is a clear

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<v Speaker 2>winner here, but I guess for how long and how much.

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<v Speaker 4>I think the professor makes a great point. But one

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<v Speaker 4>country that I think will also continue to win is

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<v Speaker 4>probably India. I think part of that is the strong

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<v Speaker 4>relationship and the personal relationship between Mody and Trump. Mody

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<v Speaker 4>was one of the first to congratulate Trump on his win.

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<v Speaker 4>So I think India will continue to win and continue

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<v Speaker 4>to be in the good graces of the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>So Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump clearly share close

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<v Speaker 1>ties and certainly a lot of parallels have been drawn

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<v Speaker 1>between the two leaders. Does this all bode well for

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<v Speaker 1>India with Trump back in the White House or are

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<v Speaker 1>there also some points of contention.

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<v Speaker 4>Where things might get challenging. Is that Money has his

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<v Speaker 4>own made in India policy that could run into Made

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<v Speaker 4>in America policies as well, so that will certainly have

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<v Speaker 4>to be ironed out. There's certainly things that they can

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<v Speaker 4>agree on, including diversifying the supply chains, trying to decouple

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<v Speaker 4>from China, and if there's anything that Trump would appreciate

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<v Speaker 4>is that it's India's stance on China.

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<v Speaker 1>So looking forward, what do you think will be different

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<v Speaker 1>about these next four years with Trump?

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<v Speaker 2>I think we should expect the unexpected. I think that's

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<v Speaker 2>simplest way of saying this, and we should not be

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<v Speaker 2>surprised to see extremes of action. What he does with

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<v Speaker 2>China is something everybody is I think, waiting to see

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<v Speaker 2>where that leads. I do not know, but I would

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<v Speaker 2>say that in my part of the world, Southeast Asia,

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<v Speaker 2>we're really watching that relationship because what happens to the

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<v Speaker 2>US China relationship were really impact set the toll for

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<v Speaker 2>relationships in the region.

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<v Speaker 1>And is there a sense that we're going to see

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<v Speaker 1>a more fractured world for the next four years.

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<v Speaker 2>We are nervous of how the world would turn out.

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<v Speaker 2>Could be more fractured, it's certainly going to be more

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<v Speaker 2>noisy and with everyone guessing the direction. We have been

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<v Speaker 2>used to a certain predictability, but with Trump administration is

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<v Speaker 2>less predictable, but that is also his advantage in dealing

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<v Speaker 2>with other countries.

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<v Speaker 4>I agree that we're getting into a more fractured world,

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<v Speaker 4>but we're also in a period of transition which makes

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<v Speaker 4>everything a lot more chaotic and noisy. And already the

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<v Speaker 4>post World War two, the so called rules based order,

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<v Speaker 4>which created the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the

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<v Speaker 4>World Trade Organization. These systems that were to promote growth

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<v Speaker 4>and prevent world wars are kind of creaking under the

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<v Speaker 4>expansion of economies. But we're also going through another industrial

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<v Speaker 4>revolution with critical technologies and emerging tech AI quantum computing,

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<v Speaker 4>and that's going to have a huge effect on labor.

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<v Speaker 4>And then you add to this the unpredictability, the crisis

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<v Speaker 4>in the Middle East, the Ukraine, war and it just

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<v Speaker 4>makes everything very nerve racking. Again. It's not very fun

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<v Speaker 4>to live in unprecedented times. But here we are, and

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<v Speaker 4>you know, there we go.

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<v Speaker 1>This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanha.

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<v Speaker 1>If you'd like to hear more about Bloomberg's coverage on

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<v Speaker 1>the economic impact of Trump's return to the White House,

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<v Speaker 1>check out the conversation on our Big Take Feed. This

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<v Speaker 1>episode was produced by Young Young Jessica Beck and Naomi

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<v Speaker 1>mum It was mixed by Alex Sugira and fact checked

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<v Speaker 1>by Adriana Tapia. It was edited by Stacy Vaneck Smith

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