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Speaker 3: We had a layer of breaking news here, as we
Speaker 3: found out earlier this hour, Kayley, the sentencing in the
Speaker 3: bragcase in New York, the Hushbuny trial that brings us
Speaker 3: back to Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen and so forth
Speaker 3: delayed until after the election. Kaylee will have to wait
Speaker 3: till November twenty sixth.
Speaker 4: Yeah, although we will get some more before then. On
Speaker 4: November twelfth, the judge will rule on his immunity. Remember,
Speaker 4: he and his legal team have argued in light of
Speaker 4: the Supreme Court decision from this summer, which found that
Speaker 4: he does have immunity for official acts that that might
Speaker 4: need to mean this case when which he was convicted,
Speaker 4: is thrown out or potentially change the outcome here, because
Speaker 4: of course these were in part checks that were signed
Speaker 4: while he was sitting in the Oval office, raises a
Speaker 4: lot of questions. So they'll get a decision on that
Speaker 4: by November twelfth. But again, November twelfth, all the votes
Speaker 4: will be in.
Speaker 5: That's correct.
Speaker 4: At that point nothing has happened prior to the election,
Speaker 4: but the.
Speaker 5: Votes will have been cast.
Speaker 3: I remember that whole argument about official business versus unofficial business.
Speaker 3: This is actually what this is all coming down to
Speaker 3: here now, So another date.
Speaker 5: To circle on your calendar here.
Speaker 3: Knowing as well that the election interference case brought by
Speaker 3: Jack Smith we learned just yesterday, we'll also have to
Speaker 3: wait now officially until after the election.
Speaker 4: Kyle, Yes, although we will get some things in that
Speaker 4: case before then, briefs that are filed from the Special
Speaker 4: Council that could honor evidence that the American electorate has
Speaker 4: not heard about at this time.
Speaker 3: June Grosso is with us now. It's amazing how the
Speaker 3: redhead hits the terminal. June Grosso pops.
Speaker 5: Up in the studio.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Bloomberg Law, Yes, indeed, another one June. Look, we
Speaker 3: saw this coming here. A couple of important court dates
Speaker 3: for Donald Trump. November twenty six means what for this case.
Speaker 6: So we're talking about the election interference case right now
Speaker 6: because we have a couple.
Speaker 5: Of we're away for sentencing. Okay, I know, okay, let's
Speaker 5: start in New York where you are with the.
Speaker 6: Brag case, all right, because there are three things going
Speaker 6: on today. So in New York with the bradcase, the
Speaker 6: judge it's basically, you know, we don't want to show
Speaker 6: an appearance of impropriety. We don't want to have people
Speaker 6: looking at this and saying that we are decision on
Speaker 6: sentencing had anything to do with the presidential election. And also,
Speaker 6: you know, sentencings get put off all the time, and
Speaker 6: the DA in this case, Alvin Bragg did not oppose
Speaker 6: putting off the sentencing, so there really was no counter
Speaker 6: to this. And the judge also said, you know, a
Speaker 6: lot's going on in this case. It's a very important
Speaker 6: date and a very important thing to sentence someone, and
Speaker 6: I don't want any other distractions during that. So, I mean,
Speaker 6: he had a lot of different considerations and you know,
Speaker 6: what's what's the point from a judicial point of view
Speaker 6: of sentencing Trump before the election, There really is no rush.
Speaker 4: Well yes, but does it not change the potential outcome
Speaker 4: if he is say not just former president Donald Trump,
Speaker 4: but president elect Donald Trump. When the sentencing happened, isn't
Speaker 4: that likely to influence a decision on say, actual prison time.
Speaker 6: Well, I don't think that the judge would admit that,
Speaker 6: and I don't think that this judge would consider that
Speaker 6: he is pretty much, you know, by the book judge,
Speaker 6: he's straightened, on the straight and narrow. I don't think
Speaker 6: he would let that influence his decision, but you know,
Speaker 6: I don't. I also don't think that there's any way
Speaker 6: that Donald Trump is going to be sentenced to prison
Speaker 6: in this hush money case. If anything, it might be
Speaker 6: a suspended sentence or you know, something where he wears
Speaker 6: an ankle monitor. But I just highly doubt that the
Speaker 6: judge would send him to prison in any case.
Speaker 3: Got the Egen Carroll case as well with the former
Speaker 3: president and voluntarily back in the courtroom today for oral arguments.
Speaker 3: They're trying to appeal this five million dollar verdict June.
Speaker 3: What should our listeners and viewers know.
Speaker 6: So it was a very short hearing ten minutes for
Speaker 6: each side, not unusual in an appellate hearing, and they
Speaker 6: kept them.
Speaker 7: To that ten minutes.
Speaker 6: The basis for Trump's appeal is some of the evidence
Speaker 6: that was submitted. There were two women who were allowed
Speaker 6: to testify about prior instances in which they alleged Donald
Speaker 6: Trump sexually assaulted them, and also the admission of the
Speaker 6: Access Hollywood tape. Now, at one point, one of the
Speaker 6: judges on the panel set to Trump's attorney, you know,
Speaker 6: it really is difficult to overturn a trial judge's decision
Speaker 6: on evidence. I don't know if that will have anything
Speaker 6: to do with this. But also the judges noticed that
Speaker 6: this is sort of there are some novel issues here,
Speaker 6: and not just because Trump was president or anything like that,
Speaker 6: but because of the New York law that is allowed
Speaker 6: these kinds of cases to go forward after so many years,
Speaker 6: the sexual assault cases, So there are some novel issues
Speaker 6: that the court may want to consider. And as far
Speaker 6: as what Egene Carroll's attorney said, she said that the
Speaker 6: Excess Hollywood tape was like a confession by Donald Trump,
Speaker 6: so it should be allowed to be played. And also
Speaker 6: that you know, the testimony of the women was well
Speaker 6: within the bounds of what the trial judge could do.
Speaker 6: And as the court said, it's very difficult to get
Speaker 6: a judge's trial judge's decision about evidentiary matters reversed on appeal.
Speaker 6: So it's an uphill battle to begin with.
Speaker 4: Wow. So that's two of the cases. Then, of course
Speaker 4: there's the third that we got developments in yesterday, where
Speaker 4: Judge Chudkin essentially said it's an exercise and futility to
Speaker 4: try to schedule a trial before the election. So three strikes.
Speaker 6: Big win though before and went for the Special Council
Speaker 6: there though, because then she decided that she's gone allow
Speaker 6: him to as you refer to in the intro, she's
Speaker 6: going to allow him to put in this brief that
Speaker 6: will support his idea or his superseding indictment. And he
Speaker 6: has said, or someone from his office has said that
Speaker 6: there might be new evidence in there, including grand jury
Speaker 6: transcripts and transcripts of FBI interviews with witnesses. So we're
Speaker 6: going to hear that. And that was a win for
Speaker 6: the Special Council because Trump's attorneys wanted to file a
Speaker 6: motion of their own first.
Speaker 4: All right, Gene Grosso, host of Bloomberg Law, breaking down
Speaker 4: all of these various cases for us, Thank you so much.
Speaker 4: And of course they do have political implications because the
Speaker 4: man we are talking about is running for president of
Speaker 4: the United States and doing so against of all people
Speaker 4: a former prosecutor who has definitely tried to make that
Speaker 4: contrast clear on the campaign trail. So let's play it
Speaker 4: now to our political panel Genie Shanzano, Senior Democracy Fellow
Speaker 4: at the center of the study of the Presidency and Congress,
Speaker 4: alongside Rick Davis, Stone Court, Capital Park and or both
Speaker 4: of them Bloomberg Politics contributors. So we will see if
Speaker 4: you use the words of the Harris campaign or others,
Speaker 4: Rick the prosecutor and the felon sharing a stage on
Speaker 4: Tuesday night in the debate. He may not be seeing
Speaker 4: more trials before the election, but he is he actually
Speaker 4: going to be able to avoid questions on this from
Speaker 4: moderators or from Kamala Harris herself.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I was actually surprised that the moderators in the
Speaker 8: first debate with Joe Biden really didn't focus much on
Speaker 8: his legal problems. And so I think it's an open
Speaker 8: question as to whether or not in this instance, especially
Speaker 8: because these cases are now in various ways being moved
Speaker 8: to post election, whether the moderators will think that that's germane.
Speaker 8: I would say, I think all of this is having
Speaker 8: some kind of condition effect on Donald Trump, because when
Speaker 8: I was reading for instance, the fundraising information out of
Speaker 8: the Harris campaign this morning. You know, she's getting a
Speaker 8: pretty good share of Republican women first time donors to
Speaker 8: a Democrat, and I think there's enough evidence, you know,
Speaker 8: whether it's motivated by things like the impression women get
Speaker 8: from these cases, or whether or not it's related to,
Speaker 8: you know, the Dobbs decision and the overturning of Brovy
Speaker 8: Way and all the anxiety that's existed in these states
Speaker 8: over the initiatives that have been going on, or whether
Speaker 8: you're running against the first woman potentially president.
Speaker 2: Of the United States.
Speaker 8: I think that Republicans have a serious problem, not just
Speaker 8: with the traditional gender gap that's always existed, but the
Speaker 8: confluence of all these things in this election cycle right
Speaker 8: now is an overwhelming weight on Republicans right now.
Speaker 3: Geeni, I wonder your thought on what we might hear
Speaker 3: later this month. As June was just reminding us here
Speaker 3: and Kayley mentions in Judge Chutkins case, Jack Smith is
Speaker 3: going to be able to make a filing in late
Speaker 3: September that could bring new evidence in this trial that
Speaker 3: could potentially, just by its own nature, change the way
Speaker 3: some people look at the Trump candidacy. Is that going
Speaker 3: to be our October surprise?
Speaker 9: Yeah, it very well could be. I don't think we
Speaker 9: know yet, although I would just caution that people have
Speaker 9: been well versed and they are very familiar with the
Speaker 9: cases or the fact that Donald Trump is facing these cases.
Speaker 9: And let's not forget after every indictment, even after he
Speaker 9: was convicted, his fundraising and his support went up. Now,
Speaker 9: maybe this October surprise, if we get one, would change that.
Speaker 9: But I wouldn't bet on it if I was Democrats,
Speaker 9: if I was a Democrat. What I think is important
Speaker 9: to underscore is amiss all of this. Donald Trump spent
Speaker 9: almost an hour today literally attacking a woman that he
Speaker 9: was found guilty of sexually assaulting, and then he was
Speaker 9: found guilty of defaate aiming her, and almost an hour
Speaker 9: of a screed on that. So when we want to
Speaker 9: talk about why women of all stripes, conservative and liberal
Speaker 9: are tending to look again at Kamala Harris, look at
Speaker 9: who this man is. People know this, So you combine
Speaker 9: that with abortion and everything else, and that gives women
Speaker 9: another look at who this person is.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we should note for TV and radio audience that
Speaker 4: it was technically a civil case, So he was found
Speaker 4: liable for these things, but wasn't actually convicted of any crime.
Speaker 4: It wasn't a criminal case. But to this point, on
Speaker 4: this being a number of Trump legal pieces of news
Speaker 4: we've gotten today, we actually started our day not talking
Speaker 4: about that, but talking about a softer jobs report. Even
Speaker 4: though the unemployment rate did take back down to four
Speaker 4: point two percent, it is looking like an economy that
Speaker 4: wasn't as strong over the last several months as maybe
Speaker 4: previously thought. Genie, does that need to recharacterize how Kamala
Speaker 4: Harris frames the economy she and Joe Biden have created
Speaker 4: during this administration when she speaks to the nation from
Speaker 4: that podium on Tuesday.
Speaker 9: You know, I don't think she'll need to reframe it.
Speaker 9: I think we've heard in the last few days where
Speaker 9: she is going to take things. She's going to try
Speaker 9: to differentiate herself from Joe Biden on certain aspects. But
Speaker 9: we have to be very clear that the unemployment rate
Speaker 9: has been low during Joe Biden's presidency, historically low by
Speaker 9: some measures, and the number of jobs created historically high,
Speaker 9: far and above what Donald Trump did his first three years,
Speaker 9: and certainly that last month. Even though a lot of
Speaker 9: that had to do with COVID, which he Democrats would
Speaker 9: tell you mismanaged. So, you know, this remains an issue
Speaker 9: for Kamala Harris on the economy. I don't think we'll
Speaker 9: see a change from what she's been saying the last
Speaker 9: few days. She's going to try to ride down the
Speaker 9: middle and differentiate herself a bit from Joe Biden in
Speaker 9: certain aspects.
Speaker 3: Well, Rick, the market stories that are going to come
Speaker 3: out of this week are going to be tough, loaded
Speaker 3: with superlatives. The worst week for the S and P
Speaker 3: five hundred since when that could bleed into next week.
Speaker 3: I wonder the extent to which you see the market
Speaker 3: action here Wall Street hanging over Kamala Harris as a
Speaker 3: member of the current administration.
Speaker 8: Well, you know, it's not had much effect on either
Speaker 8: booing Donald Trump's numbers. When he takes credit for when
Speaker 8: the market goes up, he says, ah, they must have
Speaker 8: realized that I'm going to be president and vice versa.
Speaker 8: He'll blame, you know, Kamala Harris for a downturning economy.
Speaker 8: But we don't really see any impact in the numbers.
Speaker 8: I mean, it's it's been a relatively tumultuous both positive
Speaker 8: and negative summer in the markets, and you really don't
Speaker 8: see that kind of slide affecting the data. And so
Speaker 8: I'm going to side here with the empirical data. We
Speaker 8: have a really stable race. We know that people are
Speaker 8: focused on the economy, and we know that there's a
Speaker 8: hangover with the Biden administration related to that, and we
Speaker 8: know that there's an upli for Trump on managing the economy.
Speaker 8: So I think the onus is on Harris in this
Speaker 8: debate on Tuesday night that we'll be broadcasting on that.
Speaker 8: She's got to make the mark on the economy. I
Speaker 8: think the real pressure is on her to bust through
Speaker 8: the ceiling that she's got on whether or not she
Speaker 8: can manage the economy better than Donald Trump.
Speaker 5: Eight pm Eastern Time, Tuesday.
Speaker 3: We'll meet you here. Rick and Janie are going to
Speaker 3: be with us. Of course, I'll be here with Kaylee
Speaker 3: and we're going to walk you through this debate together
Speaker 3: with clutch analysis from our signature panel. We're looking forward
Speaker 3: to it. It may be the only debate that is
Speaker 3: currently the only scheduled debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Speaker 3: That's Rick Davis and gd Shanzay No our signature panel
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Politics contributors, with a lot more on the way, Kaylee.
Speaker 3: We're going to Head of the White House coming up
Speaker 3: next to continue this conversation about politics and the economy.
Speaker 4: Yep, Heather Bouchet will be joining us on this Job's Friday,
Speaker 4: so stick with us. There's more ahead on Bloomberg TV
Speaker 4: and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 4: I'm Kaylie Lyons alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, where
Speaker 4: it's not just market reaction to the data that matters,
Speaker 4: but political reaction as well. As we are now in
Speaker 4: the home stretch of an election, and of course the
Speaker 4: incumbent Vice president is running against former president, getting ready
Speaker 4: to join him on a debate stage on Tuesday and
Speaker 4: try to defend the economy under the administration she's been
Speaker 4: serving in for three and a half years and based
Speaker 4: on today's jobs data, it's an economy that's a little
Speaker 4: bit softer than previously thought.
Speaker 3: Well, the market sure doesn't like that idea. And of
Speaker 3: course it's not just going to be defending the state
Speaker 3: of the economy, Kaylee. They'll be projecting into what they
Speaker 3: see as their own economies if they're elected. And we've
Speaker 3: got some dribs and drafts who spent the week talking
Speaker 3: about it, some ideas on tax proposals, some ideas on
Speaker 3: inspiring growth, but not a complete picture. And there are
Speaker 3: a lot of questions about to what extent they'll finish
Speaker 3: painting those pictures. On Tuesday, Style over substance is the
Speaker 3: headline on our story. So maybe not so much, but
Speaker 3: when it comes to substance when we talk about the economy,
Speaker 3: there's one voice that you know well here on Bloomberg,
Speaker 3: and it's always a pleasure to bring in. Heather Bouchet
Speaker 3: of the White House Council of Economic Advisors. She joins
Speaker 3: us from the north lawn of the White House. Good
Speaker 3: to see you after Chicago, Heather, Thanks for joining here today.
Speaker 3: We've been obsessing over the data all day as you have,
Speaker 3: and we see the reaction on Wall Street. There is
Speaker 3: a concern that things are slowing down more quickly than
Speaker 3: some may have thought over the course of the summer.
Speaker 5: Are they wrong?
Speaker 10: Well, listen, you know, we got a report today that
Speaker 10: shows that the economy continues to move forward. We continue
Speaker 10: to add jobs at a healthy pace, and importantly, we
Speaker 10: continue to see a healthy pace of wage gains for
Speaker 10: workers across the economy, including faster wage gains for the
Speaker 10: eighty percent of workers who are production in non supervisory employees.
Speaker 10: So you know, we have another a few other bright
Speaker 10: spots from today's reports again, yet another historic rise in
Speaker 10: the labor force participation rate of prime age women. Labor
Speaker 10: force participation still looking quite strong, quite robust. So there's
Speaker 10: a lot of indications that this is an economy that
Speaker 10: has really reached its cruising speed. That you know, we
Speaker 10: are moving forward, continuing a pace, and a job market
Speaker 10: that continues to perform well.
Speaker 4: If it's reached cruising speed, it does raise the question
Speaker 4: of whether or not the current rate of policy is
Speaker 4: what is appropriate. I won't ask you to weigh in
Speaker 4: on the actual decision the Fed will make in a
Speaker 4: few weeks time, Heather, from your position at the White House,
Speaker 4: I just wonder if we see a sudden easing in policy,
Speaker 4: if you worry, that may actually send a signal that
Speaker 4: the economy is in a more dire strait than you
Speaker 4: think it is, especially with an election just around the corner.
Speaker 10: Well, you know, again will not comment on FED policy,
Speaker 10: but we all watch all of these different kinds of
Speaker 10: data so closely, and I think, you know, one of
Speaker 10: the things that we continue to see is that the
Speaker 10: economy does continue to move forward at a healthy pace.
Speaker 10: We have good data on you know, GDP growth and output.
Speaker 10: We can continue to see strong consumer spending. We have seen,
Speaker 10: of course inflation come back down, and then alongside this
Speaker 10: we have this ongoing, steady pace of job gains in
Speaker 10: the economy that continue to be associated with a healthy
Speaker 10: pace of wage gains. So when you put all of
Speaker 10: the data together, you really do have an economy that
Speaker 10: is you know, I'm just going to keep saying it.
Speaker 10: We hit our cruising speed and you know, are moving
Speaker 10: along at a healthy pace.
Speaker 3: I want to ask you about the revisions, Heather, and
Speaker 3: how we should read into this eighty six thousand downward
Speaker 3: revision for June and July. Adding to the idea that
Speaker 3: things might be softer than the headlines suggests. Should we
Speaker 3: anticipate a revision for August? And how much of this
Speaker 3: has to do with funding at BLS to get the
Speaker 3: numbers right?
Speaker 10: Well, you know, revisions are a part of the process.
Speaker 10: You know, they get their data in and they revise
Speaker 10: it as they get more real time data in from
Speaker 10: firms so that it's more accurate over time, and that
Speaker 10: is an important part. It does require that they have
Speaker 10: the resources to do the job that they need to do.
Speaker 10: Data quality, we've seen over the course of this economic
Speaker 10: recovery how imperative it is that we have access to
Speaker 10: good quality data. Listen though, you know, again we saw
Speaker 10: job gains of one hundred and forty two thousand per
Speaker 10: month last month. In August, we've seen, you know, a
Speaker 10: steady pace even with revisions of one hundred and sixteen
Speaker 10: thousand per month over the past three months. We believe
Speaker 10: that that is about what we need to keep pace
Speaker 10: with the increase in the labor supply. So even with revisions,
Speaker 10: this does look like a healthy job market. And we
Speaker 10: continue to learn, you know, as the months go on,
Speaker 10: what the data.
Speaker 4: Tell us well, and of course the job market isn't monolithic.
Speaker 4: There are many different components of it that you could
Speaker 4: look at how they're specific. What's caught our attention in
Speaker 4: recent months is manufacturing. We're a sector in which we're
Speaker 4: seeing a bit more weakness. What exactly is happening with
Speaker 4: the employment picture you see in the manufacturing sector.
Speaker 10: Well, certainly you have seen that flatlined and you did
Speaker 10: lose some jobs last month.
Speaker 11: You know.
Speaker 10: One of the things that we have been focusing on
Speaker 10: in the Investment in America agenda is how the President's
Speaker 10: agenda is revitalizing parts of American manufacturing through the construction
Speaker 10: at this point of new manufacturing facilities, which we're seeing
Speaker 10: all across the country. And so we've been actually watching
Speaker 10: very carefully the increase in construction employment that you've seen,
Speaker 10: and you actually saw a big uptick in that last month.
Speaker 10: You know, we believe that, you know, as you build
Speaker 10: those facilities, those workers will come into these new sectors
Speaker 10: that we are building out. But you know, for now,
Speaker 10: we are seeing this flattening in the employment and manufacturing.
Speaker 5: There's been a lot of talk about US deal this week. Heather.
Speaker 3: I don't know if this is something that you helped
Speaker 3: to advise the president on, but now you've got Joe Biden,
Speaker 3: along with the two presidential candidates, opposing this acquisition by
Speaker 3: Japan's upon Steel. It was reporting this week the President
Speaker 3: Biden was preparing imminently to formally block that deal.
Speaker 5: Is that about to happen?
Speaker 10: That is not something I can speak to today.
Speaker 3: Well, I don't know if you're allowed to talk about
Speaker 3: this proposal at all, But there have been questions about
Speaker 3: whether if this deal wins support, for instance, from the
Speaker 3: United steel Workers Union, if that might change the look
Speaker 3: of this arrangement. Do you have a thought on that.
Speaker 10: Well, listen to zoom out to the big picture here.
Speaker 10: The President has been focused and the vice president from
Speaker 10: day one on making sure that we have the economic
Speaker 10: sectors in our economy, across our economy that are vital
Speaker 10: to our national and economic security. The President's been focused
Speaker 10: on making sure that we're making those investments, that we're
Speaker 10: making sure to create good jobs as we do so,
Speaker 10: and I think that he is taking on these decisions
Speaker 10: in light of those overarching goals.
Speaker 4: Well, of course, he has a few months to still
Speaker 4: make those decisions before a potential new administration would take over. Heather,
Speaker 4: have there been conversations within the Council of Economic Advisors
Speaker 4: as to what kind of economy in January you expect
Speaker 4: the next president will inherit and to what extent is
Speaker 4: that dependent on some kind of monetary policy change having
Speaker 4: kicked in. I won't ask you to give me a
Speaker 4: number on the number of basis points you think the
Speaker 4: rate FED funds rate might be lower, but what will
Speaker 4: that have done over the course of the next several
Speaker 4: months by January.
Speaker 10: Well, here's here's what I think, right. You know, as
Speaker 10: we've all talked on our team about where the economy is,
Speaker 10: you know, the consensus really is that this is an
Speaker 10: economy that just keeps it is kept on moving forward,
Speaker 10: and so it you know, obviously things can happen, they
Speaker 10: can move us off track, but on the path we
Speaker 10: are on, you know, we are on target to deliver
Speaker 10: an economy for the incoming administration that is strong where
Speaker 10: then the fundamentals are strong and when we continue to
Speaker 10: see low unemployment and strong wage growth, so you know,
Speaker 10: and that is on top of the other indicators that
Speaker 10: we've seen with you know, prices coming back down, with
Speaker 10: you know, growth overall, and consumption remaining a good level.
Speaker 10: So I think that you know, we have achieved this strong,
Speaker 10: robust recovery that the President's set out to do when
Speaker 10: he came into office.
Speaker 4: All right, Heather Bruschet of the White House Council of
Speaker 4: Economic Advisors joining us from the White House North Lawn
Speaker 4: this afternoon. Thank you so much, Heather. Enjoy the weekend.
Speaker 4: Always great to have you here. On Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 8: Again.
Speaker 4: In the hush money case, his sentencing has been delayed
Speaker 4: until after the election. It will now take place on
Speaker 4: November twenty sixth, not September eighteenth. Donald Trump, of course,
Speaker 4: had argued that a sentencing prior to the election was
Speaker 4: election interference, Joe, and that will no longer be happening
Speaker 4: according to the ruling today of Judge Marshawn.
Speaker 5: That's right.
Speaker 3: We're going to go into this election with decisions based
Speaker 3: on policy, not legal action, clearly in this case, Kaylee.
Speaker 3: But we also have to allow for the idea that
Speaker 3: these trials could take place next year if Donald Trump
Speaker 3: doesn't win the election.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a fair point, but of course a lot
Speaker 4: of votes still have to be cast that will determine.
Speaker 4: That's another world right that of course, if he wins
Speaker 4: the election, he has a number of policy proposals he
Speaker 4: would like to see enacted in a second term in
Speaker 4: the Oval office. And that's what we want to discuss
Speaker 4: now with Joe Lavornia. He is america First Policy Institute
Speaker 4: Senior Fellow, and of course served in the first Trump administration. Joe,
Speaker 4: welcome to Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's great to have you.
Speaker 4: We do want to talk about some of the tax
Speaker 4: policy proposals specifically, But I do have to ask you,
Speaker 4: just given the news that we've gotten here, do you
Speaker 4: actually think Donald Trump's various legal battles considering he also
Speaker 4: held a press conference earlier today on the civil Egene
Speaker 4: Carol case, is this factoring into the vote at all?
Speaker 4: Do voters care about these things anymore?
Speaker 12: I'm going to stick completely with the economics, which is
Speaker 12: what I do, so I'm not going.
Speaker 7: To answer that.
Speaker 4: Okay, So if it's the economics talk.
Speaker 12: About, I want to talk about the economy and policy,
Speaker 12: and all right, let's do it.
Speaker 13: Delvoe.
Speaker 4: I'm looking forward. I am looking forward to this conversation.
Speaker 4: So let's just start with what we heard from Donald
Speaker 4: Trump yesterday. He'd like to cut the corporate tax rate
Speaker 4: to fifteen percent for companies that make products in the US.
Speaker 4: He wants to make his twenty seventeen tax cuts permanent.
Speaker 4: We know about the no tax on tip policy. We
Speaker 4: can get to different areas of revenue generation that you
Speaker 4: think might offset that first. But if we could just
Speaker 4: tally up the toll that will take in revenue lost,
Speaker 4: what figure does that put you at?
Speaker 12: Well, we have broad contours of what policy looks like,
Speaker 12: but we can't score anything. What I can say is
Speaker 12: the CBO scores the job tax, the Job Cuts and
Speaker 12: Tax Act of twenty seventeen as a losing revenue, which
Speaker 12: I don't believe.
Speaker 7: I don't believe that's the case.
Speaker 12: I don't believe the CBO is doing enough dynamic scoring.
Speaker 12: If we look at their estimates back in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 12: and what they assumed TIKJA is a sort of known
Speaker 12: on the hill, what that would produce in revenues, their
Speaker 12: revenue estimates were well short of what actually turned out
Speaker 12: to be the case, especially on the corporate sidere revenues
Speaker 12: are actually quite strong, so we need to Eventually we'll
Speaker 12: get more details and we'll see how things play out.
Speaker 12: But I'd be careful on scoring this because right now
Speaker 12: we're not that detailed yet.
Speaker 5: Well understood on scoring.
Speaker 3: Voters are trying to make decisions based on the limited
Speaker 3: information they have here, and a lot of the analysis
Speaker 3: that we're hearing is that while Donald Trump seems to
Speaker 3: be considered more friendly to Wall Street, his idea to
Speaker 3: make permanent the tax cuts and add the tariffs would
Speaker 3: have a more inflationary impact than what Kamala Harris, the Democrat,
Speaker 3: is proposing in this case.
Speaker 5: Is that wrong?
Speaker 7: I don't know.
Speaker 12: The thing is the problem is is that everybody looks
Speaker 12: at these different proposals in isolation. You have to look
Speaker 12: at lower corporate tax rates, less regulation, permanency of tax cuts,
Speaker 12: much cheaper energy costs, an intention to reshore and reindustrialize,
Speaker 12: all as a comprehensive package. You can't just look at
Speaker 12: one in isolation and say this is inflationary and this isn't.
Speaker 12: What I could tell you is on the energy side,
Speaker 12: in terms of lifting energy production to be a real
Speaker 12: commitment to expand energy production and get energy costs significantly lower.
Speaker 12: If we want to do a simple inflation adjustment, I
Speaker 12: could tell you that the energy share of the economy
Speaker 12: is almost twice the import share of the economy. So again,
Speaker 12: if you get those lower energy costs, you would offset
Speaker 12: any teriff impact. And by the way, as the President
Speaker 12: said yesterday, you know these things are open for negotiation.
Speaker 7: That's why the specificity at this point I think is premature.
Speaker 12: It's a transactional approach basically to help us manufacturing in jobs.
Speaker 12: And you either may believe that theory, you may not,
Speaker 12: but I think it's very It all holds together when
Speaker 12: you look at it in its totality and not just
Speaker 12: break apart simple pieces.
Speaker 4: So if we want to focus on energy here specifically,
Speaker 4: if there were a blanket tariffs on all imports into
Speaker 4: the United States, that too would impact energy right and
Speaker 4: could result in higher energy costs. I'm sure you're going
Speaker 4: to say that Donald Trump wants America to produce more
Speaker 4: to be energy independent, but we're already pumping a record
Speaker 4: amount of oil and gas. Because these are companies that
Speaker 4: like to exercise capital discipline and our returning a lot
Speaker 4: to shareholders. Is that what you think is I.
Speaker 7: Just want to change one thing you said.
Speaker 12: The thing is we have increased production, but you have
Speaker 12: to keep in mind that to get to keep low
Speaker 12: and stable energy costs in place, you have to have
Speaker 12: long term capital investment. So the intention is to do
Speaker 12: things that will improve the energy platform in a way
Speaker 12: that it's sustainably producing cheap, low cost energy we had
Speaker 12: under the Trump administration. If you look at where energy
Speaker 12: costs war and if you look at where inflation was.
Speaker 12: So I think the plan is very comprehensive and it
Speaker 12: makes sense when it's looked at in totality.
Speaker 3: We're looking at WTI crude oil below sixty eight dollars
Speaker 3: a barrel in the future's market here, Joe, where should
Speaker 3: that be?
Speaker 7: I mean the market is pretty efficient.
Speaker 12: I mean I think part of the reason the oil
Speaker 12: markets and energy markets are soft right now is growth.
Speaker 7: I'm very downbeat on growth.
Speaker 12: Yes, I was listening to Michael McKee talk about the data.
Speaker 12: I looked at the data today's being very soft. If
Speaker 12: we look at the private sector, excluding healthcare, because healthcare
Speaker 12: is very interconnected, intertwined with government policy. The last three months,
Speaker 12: we have even generated forty thousand private sector jobs. The
Speaker 12: unemployment rate did tick down point zero three in August,
Speaker 12: but temporary hiring fell again.
Speaker 7: Manufacturing was weak.
Speaker 12: One of the areas of strength was in construction, but
Speaker 12: it seems to me that's ripe for a major pullback,
Speaker 12: and of the big drop in construction openings and the
Speaker 12: fact that construction activity is extraordinarily softly. You look at
Speaker 12: home sales, or look at pending home sales, or starts permits,
Speaker 12: builder sentiment, all those things suggest to us that the
Speaker 12: construction industry could shed up or is it a million.
Speaker 7: Workers, which by itself would push the unappoint rate up
Speaker 7: near five percent?
Speaker 4: Well, that certainly would be something four point two percent
Speaker 4: is where we sat as of today's figures. As you
Speaker 4: talk about construction and housing specifically, of course, we know
Speaker 4: a lot of that has to do with just where
Speaker 4: interest rates are in federal reserve policy. Donald Trump has suggested,
Speaker 4: including in an interview on Bloomberg Business Week, and he's
Speaker 4: doubled down on it a few times now, that he
Speaker 4: does think the FED should have input when it comes
Speaker 4: to monetary policy. What would that look like if the
Speaker 4: US Central Bank wasn't fully independent of politics.
Speaker 12: Well, the FED is an independent institution, but that doesn't
Speaker 12: mean the FED it is immune or should be immune
Speaker 12: from people criticizing it both construct you know, on a
Speaker 12: constructive basis. We know that in twenty eighteen, and I
Speaker 12: argued this when I had nothing to do with the administration,
Speaker 12: that policy was too tight, and the President agreed, and
Speaker 12: the FED wound up cutting because the FED was too tight.
Speaker 12: One of the reasons why monetary policy is tight is
Speaker 12: because inflation has been high and the FED has reacted
Speaker 12: to that by keeping rates elevated. I think rates will
Speaker 12: come down, Rates need to come down, but that's because
Speaker 12: I believe the economy is fundamentally soft. We've had basically
Speaker 12: every month, almost every month in the last three years,
Speaker 12: we've had the index libaiting indicators negative. This week we
Speaker 12: saw industrial production in the ISM at its lowest level
Speaker 12: since pre COVID. So, yes, signals are mixed, but unfortunately,
Speaker 12: you know, they get mixed at turning points. And the
Speaker 12: revisions in the data are very important because revisions in
Speaker 12: the data often tell us about the underlying momentum in
Speaker 12: the economy. And the revisions we had that we learned
Speaker 12: about a few weeks ago the eight hundred thousand plus.
Speaker 12: My analysis suggests it'll be closer to a million. But importantly,
Speaker 12: these current revisions do not pick that up. So we
Speaker 12: could eat learn a year or so from now that
Speaker 12: if we're not in recession, we're very close to one
Speaker 12: and that ultimately will bring rates down, which is a
Speaker 12: good thing. But I think the comment on policy being restrictive,
Speaker 12: I think I don't have a problem with that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we could learn that this was a very different
Speaker 3: summer than we thought when it comes to the job market. Here, Jose,
Speaker 3: a lot of people say, fifty basis points, let's get
Speaker 3: to it.
Speaker 5: The Fed's late. But you also know as well as I.
Speaker 3: Do, that we're going to hear a loud cry of
Speaker 3: that day that a cut of that magnitude at this
Speaker 3: time is politically motivated.
Speaker 5: What will you say?
Speaker 12: Look, I could be critical to FED, and I do
Speaker 12: it in a constructive way, and I think the President
Speaker 12: has as well. What I could tell you is the
Speaker 12: j Powell did market easing back in December and then
Speaker 12: went on sixty minutes somewhat similar to Ben Bernanke and
Speaker 12: talked about the need eventually.
Speaker 7: To lower rates from a restrictive level.
Speaker 12: I was a little bit surprised that the pivot in June,
Speaker 12: when the FED had three cuts, they went to one,
Speaker 12: and then by July they were talking about maybe cutting.
Speaker 12: At that meeting, at least several members were. But I
Speaker 12: think they've laid the groundwork for ray cuts. I do
Speaker 12: think the economy soft. I'm not sure whether if fifty
Speaker 12: or twenty five is going to make a huge difference
Speaker 12: in terms of the longer term outlook. And I don't
Speaker 12: think it really necessarily plays into the politics, because, as
Speaker 12: you yourself have suggested, economists are debating whether it's twenty
Speaker 12: five or fifty. So I don't see this really as
Speaker 12: being a political a political decision, all right, Well.
Speaker 4: That's fair enough, and as we've said, the FED has
Speaker 4: made it very clear prefers to make these decisions independent
Speaker 4: of politics. As we consider, though, the idea that monetary
Speaker 4: policy does have a lagged effect on the way it
Speaker 4: tightens and on the way it eases, regardless of whether
Speaker 4: or not Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins, what kind
Speaker 4: of economy do you expect they will inherit in January
Speaker 4: based on how much policy has eased and to what
Speaker 4: extent that has actually influenced economic outcomes.
Speaker 12: That's an excellent question because it's not clear we're in recession,
Speaker 12: and we may avoid recession if the Fed starts cutting
Speaker 12: and equity markets can get excited about the future. I'll
Speaker 12: leave it to the margus to decide what it thinks
Speaker 12: is going to be better for policy. Clearly, I'm familiar
Speaker 12: with the President's economic policies and think from a supply
Speaker 12: side capital formation, productivity, enhancing household income and wage boosting
Speaker 12: phenomenon that his policies will work much better than the alternative.
Speaker 12: But to be honest, I don't know what vice President's
Speaker 12: economic policies are at this point.
Speaker 7: We've got a little bits and pieces. She'll have to
Speaker 7: describe it.
Speaker 12: But the economy will be influenced by what happens in November,
Speaker 12: and we'll see what happens. I do think any short
Speaker 12: term things are soft. I hope we avoid recession, but
Speaker 12: we'll see.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: As we spend time with Joe Lavornia here on Bloomberg
Speaker 3: TV and Radio, I just want to get back to
Speaker 3: this question about tariffs and energy, where we spent a
Speaker 3: little bit of time Joe. There was reporting in Politico
Speaker 3: this week that the idea of imposing terrorists up to
Speaker 3: twenty percent on all imported goods would have a direct
Speaker 3: impact on gasoline exports. The eight million barrels of crude
Speaker 3: oil that the US imports could be impacted and cause
Speaker 3: ripple effects throughout the energy space. How do you balance
Speaker 3: that with drill, baby drill and an effort to lower prices.
Speaker 12: Well, I mean, look, you have to remember it's they're
Speaker 12: going to be carve outs and all I could again
Speaker 12: the tariffs are used as a means to reON shore
Speaker 12: and as a means.
Speaker 3: Donald Trump proposed that carve out. That's some important news
Speaker 3: of that.
Speaker 12: Well, no, I'm saying that when I say that in
Speaker 12: terms of there are transactions involved. In other words, there's
Speaker 12: certain countries that the President I think has a certain
Speaker 12: view that maybe not contribute as much to NATO, or
Speaker 12: maybe aren't having what might be a level playing field
Speaker 12: or fair trade. So I think it kind of depends
Speaker 12: on what happens as things evolve. There's nothing that's predetermined,
Speaker 12: and the President yesterday was very clear and not giving
Speaker 12: specific numbers as it related to specific regions and specific policies.
Speaker 12: It's just an overall narrative, and we kind of know
Speaker 12: where the direction of things are going, which is terrorifts
Speaker 12: will be used to improve US bargaining position as it
Speaker 12: relates to key industries and things of that sort.
Speaker 4: Are you hoping, Joe, that you'll have a role in
Speaker 4: the shaping of that policy if Trump wins a second term.
Speaker 12: Thank you for asking. I'm very happy. I actually have
Speaker 12: a Wall Street day job, and we'll see what happens.
Speaker 12: But I very much like what I do, and if
Speaker 12: I get the call to serve, obviously be honored. But
Speaker 12: right now, focused on the markets, which you know are very,
Speaker 12: very tricky and interesting. We're trying to figure out twenty
Speaker 12: five or fifty.
Speaker 3: All right, stay in touch with us on that, Joeliforne,
Speaker 3: great to have you back, Joe, America.
Speaker 5: First Policy Institute Senior fellow.
Speaker 3: That's a deep dive with Michael McKee and Joelifornia with
Speaker 3: our eyes on the markets, of course, on a big
Speaker 3: day for economic data against the backdrop of these economic
Speaker 3: proposals from the two candidates.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 1: station Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: Now I'm starting to lose my ability to tell what
Speaker 3: is good news and bad news around here. Thankfully, that's
Speaker 3: not my job. It is the job of Ed Mills,
Speaker 3: who I'm happy to say is with us at the
Speaker 3: table today in Washington. Managing director Raymond James Ed, it's
Speaker 3: good to see you here in the studio. Thanks for
Speaker 3: coming in. I'm going to ask you a little bit
Speaker 3: about some of the candidate's plans that we've heard this week.
Speaker 3: But I'd love your take on this Job's report this morning,
Speaker 3: because it does seem like one of these sets of
Speaker 3: data where you can find whatever it is you're looking for.
Speaker 3: I thought the whole point, though, was for the FED
Speaker 3: to start slowing the job market so it could start
Speaker 3: cutting rates.
Speaker 5: Isn't this going as planned?
Speaker 14: Arguably yes, And arguably it's pretty amazing because when you
Speaker 14: look back at previous presidential administrations. Yeah, it's a kind
Speaker 14: of almost taboo in DC to ever celebrate the economy
Speaker 14: too much because what goes up goes down, and for
Speaker 14: the Biden administration. This is still an administration that has
Speaker 14: had record job growth during his term. We're kind of
Speaker 14: north of fifteen million jobs created since he's come into office.
Speaker 14: And so you would say, all right, someone in that
Speaker 14: position as his vice president is running, shouldn't that be
Speaker 14: an asset? But and things in life is always compared
Speaker 14: to what and so where the direction is, where the
Speaker 14: momentum is. Any sign of weakness, Trump is going to
Speaker 14: seize on that and try to weigh down and tie
Speaker 14: it to inflation. In some of the other parts of
Speaker 14: where voters think that the country is on the wrong track.
Speaker 3: Political season, It was just a couple of weeks ago
Speaker 3: that Jay Powell said the job market was in balance?
Speaker 13: Is it not well?
Speaker 14: I mean, when we look at the unemployment rate, when
Speaker 14: we look at the job creation over the last four
Speaker 14: years after coming out of the pandemic, there's a really
Speaker 14: lot of positive things to say. Wage growth added into that.
Speaker 14: I don't think if you were to kind of zoom
Speaker 14: out and ask someone when you have a unemployment rate
Speaker 14: in the fours and job creation that has been steady,
Speaker 14: people would say that's largely imbalanced. I don't think there
Speaker 14: would be a view that there is a crisis, but
Speaker 14: it's kind of a concern of directionally, is the other
Speaker 14: shoe about to drop? And is that the reason why
Speaker 14: the Fed has to move here in September? And how
Speaker 14: aggressively should they move? Clearly the debate that we get
Speaker 14: here at Raymonds.
Speaker 5: Ye are you at fifty now? As we're split on.
Speaker 14: This, Yeah, I mean I think it makes more sense
Speaker 14: to kind of take the over between twenty five or
Speaker 14: fifty basis points. The reason not to is I do
Speaker 14: think that the Fed is concerned about stimulating the economy
Speaker 14: too much, having a second wave of inflation. You've seen
Speaker 14: them take every rate hike that they could get to
Speaker 14: have the dry powder. So if I would caution to
Speaker 14: not go too far too fast, If they do fifty now,
Speaker 14: that could be slower cuts later this year.
Speaker 13: Understands to understand what the impact of the election.
Speaker 3: Is to get to the same spot eventually, just a
Speaker 3: question of where and how these cuts fall ed.
Speaker 5: Mills.
Speaker 3: You've been watching, like we have the candidates roll out
Speaker 3: economic plans. They're leaving a lot of holes in these
Speaker 3: plans that roll out.
Speaker 13: It's doing a lot of work.
Speaker 5: It might yeah, okay, fine, so we've got a couple headlines.
Speaker 2: That's what we have.
Speaker 3: And Donald Trump had a big one yesterday on the
Speaker 3: corporate tax rate. Let's listen to what he said before
Speaker 3: the Economic Club of New York.
Speaker 15: To further support the revival of American manufacturing, my plan
Speaker 15: calls for expanded R and D tax credits, one hundred
Speaker 15: percent bonus deppreciation expensing for new manufacturing investments, and a
Speaker 15: reduction in the corporate tax rate from twenty one percent
Speaker 15: to fifteen percent, solely for companies that make their product
Speaker 15: in America.
Speaker 3: All right there, it is so fifteen percent, we've heard
Speaker 3: that before. Unclear he can get that through Congress. Kamala
Speaker 3: Harris looking for a higher number in this case, but
Speaker 3: she put forth a smaller than expected number on capital
Speaker 3: gains taxes for the highest earners. You throw all this
Speaker 3: stuff up in the air, Ed Mills, Wall Street thinks
Speaker 3: it has a sense. It's trying to react to this stuff.
Speaker 3: Do you have enough of a picture to make a ruling?
Speaker 14: So I think what we've said is that who wins
Speaker 14: the presidency will dictate this debate, and if there is
Speaker 14: a Trump presidency, most if not all, of the tax
Speaker 14: cuts will get extended. If Harris Wins. I think there
Speaker 14: is a strong kind of argument to be made where most,
Speaker 14: if not all, of the individual tax cuts reset and
Speaker 14: what gets paid for could be something that comes later
Speaker 14: on as it relates to the R and D tax
Speaker 14: credit bonus appreciation where you let off in those clips. Yes,
Speaker 14: those were all parts of the twenty seventeen tax cuts.
Speaker 14: Donald Trump gets credit for those those have expired. There's
Speaker 14: bipartisan support to get those extended. Those will be extended.
Speaker 14: I think the caveat on that fifteen percent, if it
Speaker 14: is made in the United States, is because the fact
Speaker 14: that when we look at the price tag of extending
Speaker 14: out these tax cuts just on the individual, it's four
Speaker 14: point six trillion, So doing a one percent cut is
Speaker 14: about one hundred and thirty to one hundred and fifty
Speaker 14: billion dollars. So you're not going to get down to
Speaker 14: fifteen percent across the board. But what he is trying
Speaker 14: to do, and what he always does, is move the goalposts.
Speaker 14: So preserving what's there becomes the compromise versus being what
Speaker 14: is battled over. It's just I think a negotiating tactic
Speaker 14: from his perspective.
Speaker 3: Okay, so that's a starting point here. Yeah, I guess,
Speaker 3: how about you paying for all this stuff? On either
Speaker 3: side here there have been you know, I guess talking
Speaker 3: points right.
Speaker 5: Trump says we'll grow out of it.
Speaker 3: Drill baby, drill will lower energy prices to get there,
Speaker 3: essentially in stoke growth that will absorb the.
Speaker 5: Extra spending and tariffs.
Speaker 3: Yes, and you can find a lot of economists who
Speaker 3: have big questions about that. Kamala Harris has her own
Speaker 3: approach here, this price gouging thing that has a lot
Speaker 3: of people very upset. Also, housing initiatives. Wall Street's done
Speaker 3: pretty well under the Biden administration. But the markets seem
Speaker 3: to have a bias here. And maybe you see it
Speaker 3: differently that Donald Trump in fact will be friendlier to investors.
Speaker 5: Do you see it that way?
Speaker 13: I think it's much more nuanced than that.
Speaker 14: And my job at Raymond James has to been to say,
Speaker 14: all right, here are the Trump policies that could be
Speaker 14: good for the market, here are the ones that are negative,
Speaker 14: and here's for Harris that are good and negative. I
Speaker 14: do think that the market generally likes split government. And
Speaker 14: what I hear a lot at Raymond James's concerns about
Speaker 14: is there a second wave of inflation. If Trump is
Speaker 14: reelected under his tariff, trade and immigration.
Speaker 3: Policies, well that's a big question there, and that would
Speaker 3: not be very friendly to Wall Street. So you're kind
Speaker 3: of cherry picking. Then what do you want to.
Speaker 13: Hear Tuesday and analyzing? Not cherry picking?
Speaker 3: I mean that's not fair, but you're looking at different
Speaker 3: elements that might benefit the markets from both campaigns. Can
Speaker 3: you crystallize that more after this debate Tuesday night.
Speaker 14: That is my hope, and that is my goal. I mean,
Speaker 14: I do think that what the market will be most
Speaker 14: focused on are the twin fiscal cliffs of the debt
Speaker 14: limit and the extension of the tax cuts at the
Speaker 14: end of the year next year. One thing that we've
Speaker 14: highlighted that we think happens regardless, and I think that's
Speaker 14: been a fun part of this, is that we think
Speaker 14: that there's energy permitting reform regardless of who wins, that's
Speaker 14: going to help and supercharge the Inflation Reduction Act, that
Speaker 14: should help capex, that will help construction, that will help jobs.
Speaker 14: And so if either of them win, we'll all focus
Speaker 14: on some of those positive aspects of the agenda and
Speaker 14: give a reason why the market should go up usually
Speaker 14: the year after a presidential election. For the S and
Speaker 14: P five hundred, it's a pretty robust and positive outcome
Speaker 14: for the market. Great once we get that uncertainty out
Speaker 14: of the way.
Speaker 3: I've been looking forward to this conversation. Can we stay
Speaker 3: in touch between now and the election? Because I want
Speaker 3: to know where your head is. This is important stuff
Speaker 3: in a conversation you'll only hear on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Can't
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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, watch us
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Speaker 3: This all being factored, of course, into the conversation that's
Speaker 3: going to be had in Philadelphia next Tuesday. The economy
Speaker 3: will loom large over the presidential debate. Donald Trump Kamala
Speaker 3: Harris might be the only one we get. ABC News
Speaker 3: will bring it to you live here in special coverage
Speaker 3: on Tuesday night, and a great story on our terminal
Speaker 3: right now about prep once again, the two candidates are
Speaker 3: taken two very different roads to Philadelphia literally and metaphysically.
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris is hunker down at Pittsburgh right now. It's
Speaker 3: going to spend the whole weekend there, and they're actually
Speaker 3: doing mock debates, as we've told you, with Philip Rains
Speaker 3: dressed up in a big suit, red tie playing Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: He did this with Hillary Clinton, as I read in
Speaker 3: this great story by Bloomberg. Though Trump team sees it
Speaker 3: awfully different. JDV says, we're not going to have some
Speaker 3: formal debate prep session. He likes to sit down workshop
Speaker 3: one liners. He considers moments like yesterday that we showed
Speaker 3: you at the Economic Club of New York to be
Speaker 3: prep And so they're coming from two very different areas
Speaker 3: here and a lot of questions about what will happen
Speaker 3: when they come together. Look who's back to talk to
Speaker 3: us about it, Wendy Benjaminson, back in the nation's capital,
Speaker 3: of course, reporting for Bloomberg, our senior Washington editor. Nice
Speaker 3: to see you back just in time for the big
Speaker 3: throw down here. We talked around the first debate when
Speaker 3: it was Joe Biden. How different is this one going
Speaker 3: to Because the rules, it turns out.
Speaker 5: Wendy, are the same. The mics will be mute at
Speaker 5: all the same stuff. I guess we'll have a press
Speaker 5: pool in the room.
Speaker 3: But Donald Trump needs to calibrate or modify his approach
Speaker 3: in what way at all?
Speaker 16: Well, not too much, actually, because the strategy within Trump
Speaker 16: world is for him to let Kamala Harris speak. He
Speaker 16: wants her to go into her long winded answers that
Speaker 16: we saw on the CNN debate, remember, and she can
Speaker 16: kind of meander down a wandering path to the point
Speaker 16: of her sentences. It's just one of her personality ticks,
Speaker 16: and she can do that. Trump wants viewers to hear
Speaker 16: her say that we noticed in the first debate that Trump,
Speaker 16: at least compared to the awful performance President Biden put in,
Speaker 16: he was able to because he was being disciplined by
Speaker 16: the muted mics. He was the one who was able
Speaker 16: to keep his answers short and to the point and
Speaker 16: relatively on topic.
Speaker 13: So her her.
Speaker 16: Goal in this debate is to knock him off a
Speaker 16: little bit. I think she'll try to fact check him,
Speaker 16: use her time to fact check, use her time to
Speaker 16: argue with him, and to kind of probably tick him
Speaker 16: off a little bit. That would be my strategy. She
Speaker 16: wanted that bad. She really really can't do that, and
Speaker 16: they could spa a little bit. The one thing I
Speaker 16: don't think we're going to see in this debate is
Speaker 16: a is the two of them walking out over things
Speaker 16: like the differences between their tariffs on tips, I mean
Speaker 16: their taxes on touch income policies. I think they're going
Speaker 16: to go for Kamala Harris wants to you know, introduce
Speaker 16: herself more to people. She wants to talk about her biography.
Speaker 16: She wants to make him look bad, and his goal
Speaker 16: is the same. But I think, you know, and he's
Speaker 16: an experienced showman, so I think he's going to you know,
Speaker 16: really you know, hit all of his grade one liners
Speaker 16: that he's been working on all the Wait.
Speaker 3: Well, I guess, so we're going to find out. It's
Speaker 3: curious though the headline on the story is style over substance.
Speaker 5: These are two candidates.
Speaker 3: Who have left voters hungry for details. Sounds like they're
Speaker 3: not going to get any.
Speaker 13: They may not.
Speaker 16: I mean, the questions should elicit some factual answers, but
Speaker 16: I don't think they're going to spend a lot of time.
Speaker 5: It's a personality contest.
Speaker 16: This one might be a personality contest, but we'll see.
Speaker 16: Maybe they will get into it.
Speaker 5: Knowing there's a good chance this will be the only
Speaker 5: debate we get between.
Speaker 16: These things exactly.
Speaker 5: I mean, depending on.
Speaker 3: How this goes, I suspect will determine whether there's a
Speaker 3: second debate, right.
Speaker 16: I mean this they just want to keep their base
Speaker 16: and attract a few new voters, and maybe getting into
Speaker 16: the weeds on policies might not be the way to
Speaker 16: do that.
Speaker 3: Interesting, this is a nine o'clock throw down. She doesn't
Speaker 3: have the whole eight o'clock issue that Joe Biden have.
Speaker 5: What issues does she have?
Speaker 2: Though?
Speaker 3: Is it train of thought? As you said, the meandering answers?
Speaker 3: Because Donald Trump was called out for that frequently as well.
Speaker 3: He was talking about wind the other day and he
Speaker 3: went right into bacon and then there wasn't Sometimes these
Speaker 3: are sometimes they're both hard to follow, right.
Speaker 16: Oh, absolutely, And Trump is famous for winding down into
Speaker 16: sharks and batteries and things like that that we don't know.
Speaker 16: She is actually a very good debater, and remember she
Speaker 16: is a prosecutor exactly. She nailed him in twenty nineteen
Speaker 16: on his nineteen seventies vote on buzzing to end segregations.
Speaker 16: She hit Telsey Gabbard pretty hard in debates with in
Speaker 16: that year. And if you remember the Brett cav and
Speaker 16: All Supreme Court confirmation hearings, when she wants to drill
Speaker 16: down and nail someone, she is quite capable of deerating
Speaker 16: a hearing.
Speaker 2: That's right.
Speaker 5: Sure, we'll see if she can duplicate that.
Speaker 16: And he can only hurt himself with the one liners.
Speaker 16: If he calls her nasty or questions her race and ethnicity,
Speaker 16: that could go bad.
Speaker 5: Oh, we're doing this, Wendy. Thank you.
Speaker 3: It's great to have you back. Wendy Benjaminson. See she's
Speaker 3: still with us Washington, senior editor here at Bloomberg and
Speaker 3: the force behind our Bloomberg Swing State Pole.
Speaker 5: You know who else is here. I've been looking forward
Speaker 5: to this.
Speaker 3: The voice of New Hampshire, the voice of the establishment
Speaker 3: Republican Party in New Hampshire. I'm not talking about Chris Snunu.
Speaker 3: I'm talking about Steve Dupree, former chairman of the New
Speaker 3: Hampshire Republican Party, now owner of dupre Companies. And he's
Speaker 3: been with us before. Of course we spent some time
Speaker 3: together in New Hampshire. He was behind Nicki Haley and
Speaker 3: now he's trying to figure out what to do in November. Steve,
Speaker 3: it's great to see you. Welcome back and thanks for
Speaker 3: joining us here on Bloomberg. What do you want to
Speaker 3: hear on Tuesday Night or is your mind.
Speaker 5: Made of Well?
Speaker 11: I'd like to hear substance, but I think, as we've
Speaker 11: all predicted, it will be short on substance and more
Speaker 11: on style. And I think the commentators have dailed it.
Speaker 11: We have a showman who's created one liners, and we
Speaker 11: have a prosecutor former attorney general who's good on the facts.
Speaker 11: So it'll be very interesting to see the interaction. I
Speaker 11: think for people who are still on the fence, there
Speaker 11: are a lot of people who remember what they think
Speaker 11: was a better economy under President Trump, and he's going
Speaker 11: to remind voters of that, and I think try to
Speaker 11: put Vice President Harris on the defensive, saying, hey, this
Speaker 11: is your economy and the price of groceries is your responsibility.
Speaker 11: And she's got to counter that. She's got to somehow
Speaker 11: separate herself from the Biden administration and make Donald Trump,
Speaker 11: in the way he conducts himself and his erratic policy pronouncements,
Speaker 11: the issue, and somehow diplomatically also point out that now
Speaker 11: there's only one very older candidate in the race, who,
Speaker 11: if elected, would be older than Joe Biden was when
Speaker 11: he took the oath of office. So it's going to
Speaker 11: be a very interesting show. I think there is a
Speaker 11: group of persuadable Hayley slash McCain, Bush slash Reagan Republicans
Speaker 11: out there who have not made up their mind. They
Speaker 11: probably disagree with many of Vice President Harris's policy proposals,
Speaker 11: but they're also offended to some degree by the conduct
Speaker 11: of former President Trump. They're understood out there, and they
Speaker 11: could determine the election.
Speaker 3: They could determine the election, certainly in a state like
Speaker 3: New Hampshire, if we zero in on the state that
Speaker 3: you know so much about, Steve, there was reporting this
Speaker 3: week that New Hampshire might be off the table for
Speaker 3: the Trump campaign. That take has been challenged. I wonder
Speaker 3: if you see it differently.
Speaker 11: No, I know the Trump folks very well. I know
Speaker 11: Corey Lewandowskie, Steve Stephanak, some of the leaders. That was
Speaker 11: a foolish pronouncement, apparently by a volunteer from Massachuset. Since
Speaker 11: the Trump campaign is working hard in New Hampshire and
Speaker 11: the assumption of the rewarding that they're pulling out is
Speaker 11: just incorrect. And I will point out that in twenty
Speaker 11: sixteen when he ran, it was no effort. In twenty
Speaker 11: twenties loosely organized. They are very well organized. They showed
Speaker 11: that in the primary, and they are contesting the state.
Speaker 11: And I know the polls currently show Vice President hair
Speaker 11: Us up by about six points. And she was here
Speaker 11: and had a very successful visit on Wednesday, but this
Speaker 11: state is very much in play.
Speaker 3: It's interesting she chose to go to New Hampshire to
Speaker 3: talk about the economy. Stephen, I'm wondering if anyone is
Speaker 3: resonating with you. As a fiscal conservative, it's not a
Speaker 3: question of which candidate might be responsible for more deficit spending.
Speaker 3: It's about which candidate will spend more.
Speaker 5: Am I wrong?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 11: And for those of us who actually believe the debt
Speaker 11: and deficit matters, what's happened? I remember in two thousand
Speaker 11: and eight when John McCain and Barack Obama were arguing
Speaker 11: about an eight trillion dollar death sit not won the
Speaker 11: size of now. It's just amazing to me that neither
Speaker 11: candidates seems focused on that because there aren't easy answers
Speaker 11: to it, as we all know.
Speaker 17: I actually thought it was a smart move by Vice
Speaker 17: President Harris to come to New Hampshire and talk about
Speaker 17: supporting small businesses because this is a state primarily made
Speaker 17: up of very small businesses.
Speaker 11: So I think that's an appealing message. That's a differentiation
Speaker 11: from what the Biden administration did in many regards. So
Speaker 11: from all accounts, and I was not there. I don't
Speaker 11: go to many political events. I try to avoid as
Speaker 11: many as I can. We've got a bunch of hot
Speaker 11: races here in New Hampshire. It was a successful visit,
Speaker 11: and of course every time President Trump comes to New Hampshire,
Speaker 11: the rallies are big, and he has an incredibly large
Speaker 11: crowd the way he does at all of his rallies.
Speaker 11: So I think both of them are fighting hard. Both
Speaker 11: have organizations in the state. In fact, there are races
Speaker 11: down ballot for governor for Congress that are very hotly contested.
Speaker 11: Means the Trump campaign will be here and those reports
Speaker 11: are just not that they somehow pulled out, are just
Speaker 11: not accurate.
Speaker 3: Well, this is really important to hear from a credible
Speaker 3: voice in New Hampshire.
Speaker 5: I've only got about a minute left.
Speaker 3: Steve will small business then break for Trump or Harris
Speaker 3: in New Hampshire.
Speaker 11: You know, that's a very interesting play because those of
Speaker 11: us in small businesses like my own remember some of
Speaker 11: the tax breaks and tax cuts that help particularly as
Speaker 11: we went through as we right before we went in COVID.
Speaker 11: But then again the Biden administration put in lots of
Speaker 11: supports that helped the state and kept the economy going.
Speaker 11: So I think that small business people are very much
Speaker 11: in play, just like you hear the President and the
Speaker 11: Vice President talking about non taxing tips for wait staff
Speaker 11: and workers like that. That's very popular, and they're both
Speaker 11: trying to appeal to that small slice of the audience
Speaker 11: that in six or seven states can make the difference
Speaker 11: in the outcome.
Speaker 3: The voice of Republican politics in New Hampshire, and of
Speaker 3: course the Snowshoe Club.
Speaker 5: Steve, it's great to see you.
Speaker 3: Your input is important to us. Let's stay in touch
Speaker 3: as we get closer to November. Steve Dupree to pre
Speaker 3: company's former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party.
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple,
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