1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay. 4 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 2: And then Proud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. 5 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 6 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 7 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 3: We had a layer of breaking news here, as we 8 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 3: found out earlier this hour, Kayley, the sentencing in the 9 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,159 Speaker 3: bragcase in New York, the Hushbuny trial that brings us 10 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 3: back to Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen and so forth 11 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 3: delayed until after the election. Kaylee will have to wait 12 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 3: till November twenty sixth. 13 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,559 Speaker 4: Yeah, although we will get some more before then. On 14 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 4: November twelfth, the judge will rule on his immunity. Remember, 15 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 4: he and his legal team have argued in light of 16 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:52,879 Speaker 4: the Supreme Court decision from this summer, which found that 17 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 4: he does have immunity for official acts that that might 18 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 4: need to mean this case when which he was convicted, 19 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 4: is thrown out or potentially change the outcome here, because 20 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 4: of course these were in part checks that were signed 21 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 4: while he was sitting in the Oval office, raises a 22 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 4: lot of questions. So they'll get a decision on that 23 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 4: by November twelfth. But again, November twelfth, all the votes 24 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 4: will be in. 25 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 5: That's correct. 26 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:16,279 Speaker 4: At that point nothing has happened prior to the election, 27 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:16,679 Speaker 4: but the. 28 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:17,759 Speaker 5: Votes will have been cast. 29 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 3: I remember that whole argument about official business versus unofficial business. 30 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 3: This is actually what this is all coming down to 31 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 3: here now, So another date. 32 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 5: To circle on your calendar here. 33 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 3: Knowing as well that the election interference case brought by 34 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 3: Jack Smith we learned just yesterday, we'll also have to 35 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:35,039 Speaker 3: wait now officially until after the election. 36 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 4: Kyle, Yes, although we will get some things in that 37 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,040 Speaker 4: case before then, briefs that are filed from the Special 38 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:44,119 Speaker 4: Council that could honor evidence that the American electorate has 39 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 4: not heard about at this time. 40 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 3: June Grosso is with us now. It's amazing how the 41 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 3: redhead hits the terminal. June Grosso pops. 42 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 5: Up in the studio. 43 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, Bloomberg Law, Yes, indeed, another one June. Look, we 44 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 3: saw this coming here. A couple of important court dates 45 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:03,559 Speaker 3: for Donald Trump. November twenty six means what for this case. 46 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 6: So we're talking about the election interference case right now 47 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 6: because we have a couple. 48 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 5: Of we're away for sentencing. Okay, I know, okay, let's 49 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 5: start in New York where you are with the. 50 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 6: Brag case, all right, because there are three things going 51 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 6: on today. So in New York with the bradcase, the 52 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 6: judge it's basically, you know, we don't want to show 53 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 6: an appearance of impropriety. We don't want to have people 54 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 6: looking at this and saying that we are decision on 55 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 6: sentencing had anything to do with the presidential election. And also, 56 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 6: you know, sentencings get put off all the time, and 57 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 6: the DA in this case, Alvin Bragg did not oppose 58 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 6: putting off the sentencing, so there really was no counter 59 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 6: to this. And the judge also said, you know, a 60 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 6: lot's going on in this case. It's a very important 61 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 6: date and a very important thing to sentence someone, and 62 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 6: I don't want any other distractions during that. So, I mean, 63 00:02:56,639 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 6: he had a lot of different considerations and you know, 64 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 6: what's what's the point from a judicial point of view 65 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 6: of sentencing Trump before the election, There really is no rush. 66 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 4: Well yes, but does it not change the potential outcome 67 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 4: if he is say not just former president Donald Trump, 68 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,639 Speaker 4: but president elect Donald Trump. When the sentencing happened, isn't 69 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 4: that likely to influence a decision on say, actual prison time. 70 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:23,920 Speaker 6: Well, I don't think that the judge would admit that, 71 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,399 Speaker 6: and I don't think that this judge would consider that 72 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 6: he is pretty much, you know, by the book judge, 73 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 6: he's straightened, on the straight and narrow. I don't think 74 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 6: he would let that influence his decision, but you know, 75 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 6: I don't. I also don't think that there's any way 76 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 6: that Donald Trump is going to be sentenced to prison 77 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 6: in this hush money case. If anything, it might be 78 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 6: a suspended sentence or you know, something where he wears 79 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 6: an ankle monitor. But I just highly doubt that the 80 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 6: judge would send him to prison in any case. 81 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 3: Got the Egen Carroll case as well with the former 82 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 3: president and voluntarily back in the courtroom today for oral arguments. 83 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 3: They're trying to appeal this five million dollar verdict June. 84 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 3: What should our listeners and viewers know. 85 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 6: So it was a very short hearing ten minutes for 86 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 6: each side, not unusual in an appellate hearing, and they 87 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:16,839 Speaker 6: kept them. 88 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 7: To that ten minutes. 89 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,840 Speaker 6: The basis for Trump's appeal is some of the evidence 90 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 6: that was submitted. There were two women who were allowed 91 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:29,039 Speaker 6: to testify about prior instances in which they alleged Donald 92 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 6: Trump sexually assaulted them, and also the admission of the 93 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 6: Access Hollywood tape. Now, at one point, one of the 94 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 6: judges on the panel set to Trump's attorney, you know, 95 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 6: it really is difficult to overturn a trial judge's decision 96 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 6: on evidence. I don't know if that will have anything 97 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 6: to do with this. But also the judges noticed that 98 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 6: this is sort of there are some novel issues here, 99 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 6: and not just because Trump was president or anything like that, 100 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 6: but because of the New York law that is allowed 101 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:04,679 Speaker 6: these kinds of cases to go forward after so many years, 102 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 6: the sexual assault cases, So there are some novel issues 103 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:12,479 Speaker 6: that the court may want to consider. And as far 104 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 6: as what Egene Carroll's attorney said, she said that the 105 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 6: Excess Hollywood tape was like a confession by Donald Trump, 106 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 6: so it should be allowed to be played. And also 107 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 6: that you know, the testimony of the women was well 108 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 6: within the bounds of what the trial judge could do. 109 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 6: And as the court said, it's very difficult to get 110 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:38,160 Speaker 6: a judge's trial judge's decision about evidentiary matters reversed on appeal. 111 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 6: So it's an uphill battle to begin with. 112 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 4: Wow. So that's two of the cases. Then, of course 113 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 4: there's the third that we got developments in yesterday, where 114 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 4: Judge Chudkin essentially said it's an exercise and futility to 115 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 4: try to schedule a trial before the election. So three strikes. 116 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 6: Big win though before and went for the Special Council 117 00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:00,359 Speaker 6: there though, because then she decided that she's gone allow 118 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 6: him to as you refer to in the intro, she's 119 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 6: going to allow him to put in this brief that 120 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:10,839 Speaker 6: will support his idea or his superseding indictment. And he 121 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 6: has said, or someone from his office has said that 122 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 6: there might be new evidence in there, including grand jury 123 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:23,719 Speaker 6: transcripts and transcripts of FBI interviews with witnesses. So we're 124 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 6: going to hear that. And that was a win for 125 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:30,159 Speaker 6: the Special Council because Trump's attorneys wanted to file a 126 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 6: motion of their own first. 127 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 4: All right, Gene Grosso, host of Bloomberg Law, breaking down 128 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 4: all of these various cases for us, Thank you so much. 129 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:41,359 Speaker 4: And of course they do have political implications because the 130 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 4: man we are talking about is running for president of 131 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 4: the United States and doing so against of all people 132 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 4: a former prosecutor who has definitely tried to make that 133 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 4: contrast clear on the campaign trail. So let's play it 134 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 4: now to our political panel Genie Shanzano, Senior Democracy Fellow 135 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 4: at the center of the study of the Presidency and Congress, 136 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 4: alongside Rick Davis, Stone Court, Capital Park and or both 137 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 4: of them Bloomberg Politics contributors. So we will see if 138 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,160 Speaker 4: you use the words of the Harris campaign or others, 139 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 4: Rick the prosecutor and the felon sharing a stage on 140 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 4: Tuesday night in the debate. He may not be seeing 141 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 4: more trials before the election, but he is he actually 142 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 4: going to be able to avoid questions on this from 143 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 4: moderators or from Kamala Harris herself. 144 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 8: Yeah, I was actually surprised that the moderators in the 145 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 8: first debate with Joe Biden really didn't focus much on 146 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 8: his legal problems. And so I think it's an open 147 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 8: question as to whether or not in this instance, especially 148 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 8: because these cases are now in various ways being moved 149 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 8: to post election, whether the moderators will think that that's germane. 150 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 8: I would say, I think all of this is having 151 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 8: some kind of condition effect on Donald Trump, because when 152 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 8: I was reading for instance, the fundraising information out of 153 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 8: the Harris campaign this morning. You know, she's getting a 154 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 8: pretty good share of Republican women first time donors to 155 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 8: a Democrat, and I think there's enough evidence, you know, 156 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 8: whether it's motivated by things like the impression women get 157 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 8: from these cases, or whether or not it's related to, 158 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 8: you know, the Dobbs decision and the overturning of Brovy 159 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 8: Way and all the anxiety that's existed in these states 160 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 8: over the initiatives that have been going on, or whether 161 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 8: you're running against the first woman potentially president. 162 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 2: Of the United States. 163 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 8: I think that Republicans have a serious problem, not just 164 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,560 Speaker 8: with the traditional gender gap that's always existed, but the 165 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 8: confluence of all these things in this election cycle right 166 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 8: now is an overwhelming weight on Republicans right now. 167 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 3: Geeni, I wonder your thought on what we might hear 168 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 3: later this month. As June was just reminding us here 169 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 3: and Kayley mentions in Judge Chutkins case, Jack Smith is 170 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 3: going to be able to make a filing in late 171 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 3: September that could bring new evidence in this trial that 172 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 3: could potentially, just by its own nature, change the way 173 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 3: some people look at the Trump candidacy. Is that going 174 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 3: to be our October surprise? 175 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 9: Yeah, it very well could be. I don't think we 176 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:16,840 Speaker 9: know yet, although I would just caution that people have 177 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 9: been well versed and they are very familiar with the 178 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:23,680 Speaker 9: cases or the fact that Donald Trump is facing these cases. 179 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 9: And let's not forget after every indictment, even after he 180 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:32,440 Speaker 9: was convicted, his fundraising and his support went up. Now, 181 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:37,320 Speaker 9: maybe this October surprise, if we get one, would change that. 182 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:39,880 Speaker 9: But I wouldn't bet on it if I was Democrats, 183 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 9: if I was a Democrat. What I think is important 184 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:46,199 Speaker 9: to underscore is amiss all of this. Donald Trump spent 185 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 9: almost an hour today literally attacking a woman that he 186 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 9: was found guilty of sexually assaulting, and then he was 187 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 9: found guilty of defaate aiming her, and almost an hour 188 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 9: of a screed on that. So when we want to 189 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 9: talk about why women of all stripes, conservative and liberal 190 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 9: are tending to look again at Kamala Harris, look at 191 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 9: who this man is. People know this, So you combine 192 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:23,360 Speaker 9: that with abortion and everything else, and that gives women 193 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 9: another look at who this person is. 194 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, we should note for TV and radio audience that 195 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 4: it was technically a civil case, So he was found 196 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 4: liable for these things, but wasn't actually convicted of any crime. 197 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,199 Speaker 4: It wasn't a criminal case. But to this point, on 198 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 4: this being a number of Trump legal pieces of news 199 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 4: we've gotten today, we actually started our day not talking 200 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 4: about that, but talking about a softer jobs report. Even 201 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,440 Speaker 4: though the unemployment rate did take back down to four 202 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:53,840 Speaker 4: point two percent, it is looking like an economy that 203 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:56,440 Speaker 4: wasn't as strong over the last several months as maybe 204 00:10:56,440 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 4: previously thought. Genie, does that need to recharacterize how Kamala 205 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 4: Harris frames the economy she and Joe Biden have created 206 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 4: during this administration when she speaks to the nation from 207 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 4: that podium on Tuesday. 208 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 9: You know, I don't think she'll need to reframe it. 209 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:13,319 Speaker 9: I think we've heard in the last few days where 210 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 9: she is going to take things. She's going to try 211 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 9: to differentiate herself from Joe Biden on certain aspects. But 212 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 9: we have to be very clear that the unemployment rate 213 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 9: has been low during Joe Biden's presidency, historically low by 214 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 9: some measures, and the number of jobs created historically high, 215 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 9: far and above what Donald Trump did his first three years, 216 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 9: and certainly that last month. Even though a lot of 217 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:39,960 Speaker 9: that had to do with COVID, which he Democrats would 218 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 9: tell you mismanaged. So, you know, this remains an issue 219 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 9: for Kamala Harris on the economy. I don't think we'll 220 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 9: see a change from what she's been saying the last 221 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:50,080 Speaker 9: few days. She's going to try to ride down the 222 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,600 Speaker 9: middle and differentiate herself a bit from Joe Biden in 223 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:54,679 Speaker 9: certain aspects. 224 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 3: Well, Rick, the market stories that are going to come 225 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:00,319 Speaker 3: out of this week are going to be tough, loaded 226 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 3: with superlatives. The worst week for the S and P 227 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 3: five hundred since when that could bleed into next week. 228 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:08,560 Speaker 3: I wonder the extent to which you see the market 229 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 3: action here Wall Street hanging over Kamala Harris as a 230 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 3: member of the current administration. 231 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:19,079 Speaker 8: Well, you know, it's not had much effect on either 232 00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:23,080 Speaker 8: booing Donald Trump's numbers. When he takes credit for when 233 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 8: the market goes up, he says, ah, they must have 234 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 8: realized that I'm going to be president and vice versa. 235 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 8: He'll blame, you know, Kamala Harris for a downturning economy. 236 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 8: But we don't really see any impact in the numbers. 237 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 8: I mean, it's it's been a relatively tumultuous both positive 238 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 8: and negative summer in the markets, and you really don't 239 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 8: see that kind of slide affecting the data. And so 240 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,560 Speaker 8: I'm going to side here with the empirical data. We 241 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 8: have a really stable race. We know that people are 242 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 8: focused on the economy, and we know that there's a 243 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 8: hangover with the Biden administration related to that, and we 244 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 8: know that there's an upli for Trump on managing the economy. 245 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 8: So I think the onus is on Harris in this 246 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:11,319 Speaker 8: debate on Tuesday night that we'll be broadcasting on that. 247 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 8: She's got to make the mark on the economy. I 248 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 8: think the real pressure is on her to bust through 249 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 8: the ceiling that she's got on whether or not she 250 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 8: can manage the economy better than Donald Trump. 251 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 5: Eight pm Eastern Time, Tuesday. 252 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:28,719 Speaker 3: We'll meet you here. Rick and Janie are going to 253 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 3: be with us. Of course, I'll be here with Kaylee 254 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 3: and we're going to walk you through this debate together 255 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 3: with clutch analysis from our signature panel. We're looking forward 256 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 3: to it. It may be the only debate that is 257 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 3: currently the only scheduled debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. 258 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 3: That's Rick Davis and gd Shanzay No our signature panel 259 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Politics contributors, with a lot more on the way, Kaylee. 260 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 3: We're going to Head of the White House coming up 261 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 3: next to continue this conversation about politics and the economy. 262 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:55,439 Speaker 4: Yep, Heather Bouchet will be joining us on this Job's Friday, 263 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 4: so stick with us. There's more ahead on Bloomberg TV 264 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 4: and radio. 265 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:05,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken 266 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 267 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 1: royd Outo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also 268 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 269 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 270 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 4: I'm Kaylie Lyons alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, where 271 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 4: it's not just market reaction to the data that matters, 272 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 4: but political reaction as well. As we are now in 273 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 4: the home stretch of an election, and of course the 274 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 4: incumbent Vice president is running against former president, getting ready 275 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 4: to join him on a debate stage on Tuesday and 276 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 4: try to defend the economy under the administration she's been 277 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 4: serving in for three and a half years and based 278 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 4: on today's jobs data, it's an economy that's a little 279 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 4: bit softer than previously thought. 280 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 3: Well, the market sure doesn't like that idea. And of 281 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 3: course it's not just going to be defending the state 282 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 3: of the economy, Kaylee. They'll be projecting into what they 283 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 3: see as their own economies if they're elected. And we've 284 00:14:57,680 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 3: got some dribs and drafts who spent the week talking 285 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 3: about it, some ideas on tax proposals, some ideas on 286 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 3: inspiring growth, but not a complete picture. And there are 287 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 3: a lot of questions about to what extent they'll finish 288 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 3: painting those pictures. On Tuesday, Style over substance is the 289 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 3: headline on our story. So maybe not so much, but 290 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 3: when it comes to substance when we talk about the economy, 291 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 3: there's one voice that you know well here on Bloomberg, 292 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 3: and it's always a pleasure to bring in. Heather Bouchet 293 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 3: of the White House Council of Economic Advisors. She joins 294 00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:28,720 Speaker 3: us from the north lawn of the White House. Good 295 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 3: to see you after Chicago, Heather, Thanks for joining here today. 296 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 3: We've been obsessing over the data all day as you have, 297 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 3: and we see the reaction on Wall Street. There is 298 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 3: a concern that things are slowing down more quickly than 299 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 3: some may have thought over the course of the summer. 300 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 5: Are they wrong? 301 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 10: Well, listen, you know, we got a report today that 302 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 10: shows that the economy continues to move forward. We continue 303 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 10: to add jobs at a healthy pace, and importantly, we 304 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 10: continue to see a healthy pace of wage gains for 305 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 10: workers across the economy, including faster wage gains for the 306 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 10: eighty percent of workers who are production in non supervisory employees. 307 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 10: So you know, we have another a few other bright 308 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 10: spots from today's reports again, yet another historic rise in 309 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 10: the labor force participation rate of prime age women. Labor 310 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 10: force participation still looking quite strong, quite robust. So there's 311 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 10: a lot of indications that this is an economy that 312 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 10: has really reached its cruising speed. That you know, we 313 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 10: are moving forward, continuing a pace, and a job market 314 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 10: that continues to perform well. 315 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 4: If it's reached cruising speed, it does raise the question 316 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 4: of whether or not the current rate of policy is 317 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 4: what is appropriate. I won't ask you to weigh in 318 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 4: on the actual decision the Fed will make in a 319 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 4: few weeks time, Heather, from your position at the White House, 320 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 4: I just wonder if we see a sudden easing in policy, 321 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 4: if you worry, that may actually send a signal that 322 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,440 Speaker 4: the economy is in a more dire strait than you 323 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 4: think it is, especially with an election just around the corner. 324 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 10: Well, you know, again will not comment on FED policy, 325 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 10: but we all watch all of these different kinds of 326 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 10: data so closely, and I think, you know, one of 327 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:08,439 Speaker 10: the things that we continue to see is that the 328 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,960 Speaker 10: economy does continue to move forward at a healthy pace. 329 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 10: We have good data on you know, GDP growth and output. 330 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:19,200 Speaker 10: We can continue to see strong consumer spending. We have seen, 331 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,680 Speaker 10: of course inflation come back down, and then alongside this 332 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 10: we have this ongoing, steady pace of job gains in 333 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,359 Speaker 10: the economy that continue to be associated with a healthy 334 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 10: pace of wage gains. So when you put all of 335 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,359 Speaker 10: the data together, you really do have an economy that 336 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 10: is you know, I'm just going to keep saying it. 337 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 10: We hit our cruising speed and you know, are moving 338 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 10: along at a healthy pace. 339 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:42,720 Speaker 3: I want to ask you about the revisions, Heather, and 340 00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 3: how we should read into this eighty six thousand downward 341 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 3: revision for June and July. Adding to the idea that 342 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 3: things might be softer than the headlines suggests. Should we 343 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:56,280 Speaker 3: anticipate a revision for August? And how much of this 344 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 3: has to do with funding at BLS to get the 345 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 3: numbers right? 346 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 10: Well, you know, revisions are a part of the process. 347 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 10: You know, they get their data in and they revise 348 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:10,480 Speaker 10: it as they get more real time data in from 349 00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 10: firms so that it's more accurate over time, and that 350 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 10: is an important part. It does require that they have 351 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 10: the resources to do the job that they need to do. 352 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 10: Data quality, we've seen over the course of this economic 353 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 10: recovery how imperative it is that we have access to 354 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 10: good quality data. Listen though, you know, again we saw 355 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:31,360 Speaker 10: job gains of one hundred and forty two thousand per 356 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 10: month last month. In August, we've seen, you know, a 357 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 10: steady pace even with revisions of one hundred and sixteen 358 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,879 Speaker 10: thousand per month over the past three months. We believe 359 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 10: that that is about what we need to keep pace 360 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 10: with the increase in the labor supply. So even with revisions, 361 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 10: this does look like a healthy job market. And we 362 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 10: continue to learn, you know, as the months go on, 363 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:52,920 Speaker 10: what the data. 364 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 4: Tell us well, and of course the job market isn't monolithic. 365 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:58,880 Speaker 4: There are many different components of it that you could 366 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 4: look at how they're specific. What's caught our attention in 367 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 4: recent months is manufacturing. We're a sector in which we're 368 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 4: seeing a bit more weakness. What exactly is happening with 369 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,399 Speaker 4: the employment picture you see in the manufacturing sector. 370 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 10: Well, certainly you have seen that flatlined and you did 371 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 10: lose some jobs last month. 372 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:17,439 Speaker 11: You know. 373 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 10: One of the things that we have been focusing on 374 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 10: in the Investment in America agenda is how the President's 375 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:27,440 Speaker 10: agenda is revitalizing parts of American manufacturing through the construction 376 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,440 Speaker 10: at this point of new manufacturing facilities, which we're seeing 377 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 10: all across the country. And so we've been actually watching 378 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:37,400 Speaker 10: very carefully the increase in construction employment that you've seen, 379 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,920 Speaker 10: and you actually saw a big uptick in that last month. 380 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 10: You know, we believe that, you know, as you build 381 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 10: those facilities, those workers will come into these new sectors 382 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 10: that we are building out. But you know, for now, 383 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 10: we are seeing this flattening in the employment and manufacturing. 384 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 5: There's been a lot of talk about US deal this week. Heather. 385 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:56,920 Speaker 3: I don't know if this is something that you helped 386 00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:00,320 Speaker 3: to advise the president on, but now you've got Joe Biden, 387 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:04,640 Speaker 3: along with the two presidential candidates, opposing this acquisition by 388 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:08,400 Speaker 3: Japan's upon Steel. It was reporting this week the President 389 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 3: Biden was preparing imminently to formally block that deal. 390 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:13,920 Speaker 5: Is that about to happen? 391 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,119 Speaker 10: That is not something I can speak to today. 392 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 3: Well, I don't know if you're allowed to talk about 393 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,120 Speaker 3: this proposal at all, But there have been questions about 394 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,879 Speaker 3: whether if this deal wins support, for instance, from the 395 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 3: United steel Workers Union, if that might change the look 396 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:32,920 Speaker 3: of this arrangement. Do you have a thought on that. 397 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 10: Well, listen to zoom out to the big picture here. 398 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:39,400 Speaker 10: The President has been focused and the vice president from 399 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 10: day one on making sure that we have the economic 400 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 10: sectors in our economy, across our economy that are vital 401 00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,640 Speaker 10: to our national and economic security. The President's been focused 402 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 10: on making sure that we're making those investments, that we're 403 00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:54,680 Speaker 10: making sure to create good jobs as we do so, 404 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 10: and I think that he is taking on these decisions 405 00:20:57,840 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 10: in light of those overarching goals. 406 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:03,879 Speaker 4: Well, of course, he has a few months to still 407 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:09,000 Speaker 4: make those decisions before a potential new administration would take over. Heather, 408 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 4: have there been conversations within the Council of Economic Advisors 409 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 4: as to what kind of economy in January you expect 410 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:19,479 Speaker 4: the next president will inherit and to what extent is 411 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,640 Speaker 4: that dependent on some kind of monetary policy change having 412 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:24,159 Speaker 4: kicked in. I won't ask you to give me a 413 00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 4: number on the number of basis points you think the 414 00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 4: rate FED funds rate might be lower, but what will 415 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:31,920 Speaker 4: that have done over the course of the next several 416 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 4: months by January. 417 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 10: Well, here's here's what I think, right. You know, as 418 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,879 Speaker 10: we've all talked on our team about where the economy is, 419 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,119 Speaker 10: you know, the consensus really is that this is an 420 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,320 Speaker 10: economy that just keeps it is kept on moving forward, 421 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 10: and so it you know, obviously things can happen, they 422 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,359 Speaker 10: can move us off track, but on the path we 423 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 10: are on, you know, we are on target to deliver 424 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 10: an economy for the incoming administration that is strong where 425 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,879 Speaker 10: then the fundamentals are strong and when we continue to 426 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 10: see low unemployment and strong wage growth, so you know, 427 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 10: and that is on top of the other indicators that 428 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 10: we've seen with you know, prices coming back down, with 429 00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 10: you know, growth overall, and consumption remaining a good level. 430 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 10: So I think that you know, we have achieved this strong, 431 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 10: robust recovery that the President's set out to do when 432 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:18,359 Speaker 10: he came into office. 433 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,240 Speaker 4: All right, Heather Bruschet of the White House Council of 434 00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,360 Speaker 4: Economic Advisors joining us from the White House North Lawn 435 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 4: this afternoon. Thank you so much, Heather. Enjoy the weekend. 436 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:33,160 Speaker 4: Always great to have you here. On Bloomberg TV and radio. 437 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 438 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:41,480 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay. 439 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 2: And then Proud Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 440 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 441 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,880 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 442 00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 8: Again. 443 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 4: In the hush money case, his sentencing has been delayed 444 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 4: until after the election. It will now take place on 445 00:22:56,280 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 4: November twenty sixth, not September eighteenth. Donald Trump, of course, 446 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,119 Speaker 4: had argued that a sentencing prior to the election was 447 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 4: election interference, Joe, and that will no longer be happening 448 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 4: according to the ruling today of Judge Marshawn. 449 00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 5: That's right. 450 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,160 Speaker 3: We're going to go into this election with decisions based 451 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 3: on policy, not legal action, clearly in this case, Kaylee. 452 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 3: But we also have to allow for the idea that 453 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 3: these trials could take place next year if Donald Trump 454 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:20,639 Speaker 3: doesn't win the election. 455 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:23,719 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a fair point, but of course a lot 456 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 4: of votes still have to be cast that will determine. 457 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:27,920 Speaker 4: That's another world right that of course, if he wins 458 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,119 Speaker 4: the election, he has a number of policy proposals he 459 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 4: would like to see enacted in a second term in 460 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 4: the Oval office. And that's what we want to discuss 461 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,120 Speaker 4: now with Joe Lavornia. He is america First Policy Institute 462 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 4: Senior Fellow, and of course served in the first Trump administration. Joe, 463 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 4: welcome to Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's great to have you. 464 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 4: We do want to talk about some of the tax 465 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 4: policy proposals specifically, But I do have to ask you, 466 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,679 Speaker 4: just given the news that we've gotten here, do you 467 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 4: actually think Donald Trump's various legal battles considering he also 468 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 4: held a press conference earlier today on the civil Egene 469 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:02,159 Speaker 4: Carol case, is this factoring into the vote at all? 470 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,160 Speaker 4: Do voters care about these things anymore? 471 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,760 Speaker 12: I'm going to stick completely with the economics, which is 472 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 12: what I do, so I'm not going. 473 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:09,360 Speaker 7: To answer that. 474 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,520 Speaker 4: Okay, So if it's the economics talk. 475 00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 12: About, I want to talk about the economy and policy, 476 00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:16,800 Speaker 12: and all right, let's do it. 477 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:17,199 Speaker 13: Delvoe. 478 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,760 Speaker 4: I'm looking forward. I am looking forward to this conversation. 479 00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 4: So let's just start with what we heard from Donald 480 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,479 Speaker 4: Trump yesterday. He'd like to cut the corporate tax rate 481 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 4: to fifteen percent for companies that make products in the US. 482 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,159 Speaker 4: He wants to make his twenty seventeen tax cuts permanent. 483 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,240 Speaker 4: We know about the no tax on tip policy. We 484 00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 4: can get to different areas of revenue generation that you 485 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,119 Speaker 4: think might offset that first. But if we could just 486 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,960 Speaker 4: tally up the toll that will take in revenue lost, 487 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 4: what figure does that put you at? 488 00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:48,399 Speaker 12: Well, we have broad contours of what policy looks like, 489 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,880 Speaker 12: but we can't score anything. What I can say is 490 00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 12: the CBO scores the job tax, the Job Cuts and 491 00:24:56,040 --> 00:25:01,160 Speaker 12: Tax Act of twenty seventeen as a losing revenue, which 492 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:01,879 Speaker 12: I don't believe. 493 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 7: I don't believe that's the case. 494 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 12: I don't believe the CBO is doing enough dynamic scoring. 495 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 12: If we look at their estimates back in twenty sixteen, 496 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:15,120 Speaker 12: and what they assumed TIKJA is a sort of known 497 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:18,160 Speaker 12: on the hill, what that would produce in revenues, their 498 00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 12: revenue estimates were well short of what actually turned out 499 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 12: to be the case, especially on the corporate sidere revenues 500 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 12: are actually quite strong, so we need to Eventually we'll 501 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,240 Speaker 12: get more details and we'll see how things play out. 502 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,600 Speaker 12: But I'd be careful on scoring this because right now 503 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:34,160 Speaker 12: we're not that detailed yet. 504 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 5: Well understood on scoring. 505 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 3: Voters are trying to make decisions based on the limited 506 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:42,520 Speaker 3: information they have here, and a lot of the analysis 507 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 3: that we're hearing is that while Donald Trump seems to 508 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 3: be considered more friendly to Wall Street, his idea to 509 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 3: make permanent the tax cuts and add the tariffs would 510 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 3: have a more inflationary impact than what Kamala Harris, the Democrat, 511 00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,160 Speaker 3: is proposing in this case. 512 00:25:59,240 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 5: Is that wrong? 513 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 7: I don't know. 514 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,680 Speaker 12: The thing is the problem is is that everybody looks 515 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 12: at these different proposals in isolation. You have to look 516 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:13,680 Speaker 12: at lower corporate tax rates, less regulation, permanency of tax cuts, 517 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 12: much cheaper energy costs, an intention to reshore and reindustrialize, 518 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,400 Speaker 12: all as a comprehensive package. You can't just look at 519 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 12: one in isolation and say this is inflationary and this isn't. 520 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 12: What I could tell you is on the energy side, 521 00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,160 Speaker 12: in terms of lifting energy production to be a real 522 00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:36,880 Speaker 12: commitment to expand energy production and get energy costs significantly lower. 523 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,399 Speaker 12: If we want to do a simple inflation adjustment, I 524 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,560 Speaker 12: could tell you that the energy share of the economy 525 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 12: is almost twice the import share of the economy. So again, 526 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,240 Speaker 12: if you get those lower energy costs, you would offset 527 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 12: any teriff impact. And by the way, as the President 528 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,880 Speaker 12: said yesterday, you know these things are open for negotiation. 529 00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 7: That's why the specificity at this point I think is premature. 530 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:04,480 Speaker 12: It's a transactional approach basically to help us manufacturing in jobs. 531 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,119 Speaker 12: And you either may believe that theory, you may not, 532 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,440 Speaker 12: but I think it's very It all holds together when 533 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,320 Speaker 12: you look at it in its totality and not just 534 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,840 Speaker 12: break apart simple pieces. 535 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,200 Speaker 4: So if we want to focus on energy here specifically, 536 00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:21,960 Speaker 4: if there were a blanket tariffs on all imports into 537 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 4: the United States, that too would impact energy right and 538 00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:26,959 Speaker 4: could result in higher energy costs. I'm sure you're going 539 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,600 Speaker 4: to say that Donald Trump wants America to produce more 540 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,439 Speaker 4: to be energy independent, but we're already pumping a record 541 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,119 Speaker 4: amount of oil and gas. Because these are companies that 542 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 4: like to exercise capital discipline and our returning a lot 543 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 4: to shareholders. Is that what you think is I. 544 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:42,920 Speaker 7: Just want to change one thing you said. 545 00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,359 Speaker 12: The thing is we have increased production, but you have 546 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,840 Speaker 12: to keep in mind that to get to keep low 547 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 12: and stable energy costs in place, you have to have 548 00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:53,399 Speaker 12: long term capital investment. So the intention is to do 549 00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,400 Speaker 12: things that will improve the energy platform in a way 550 00:27:56,440 --> 00:28:00,640 Speaker 12: that it's sustainably producing cheap, low cost energy we had 551 00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,720 Speaker 12: under the Trump administration. If you look at where energy 552 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:05,480 Speaker 12: costs war and if you look at where inflation was. 553 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:09,119 Speaker 12: So I think the plan is very comprehensive and it 554 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 12: makes sense when it's looked at in totality. 555 00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,760 Speaker 3: We're looking at WTI crude oil below sixty eight dollars 556 00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,000 Speaker 3: a barrel in the future's market here, Joe, where should 557 00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:19,280 Speaker 3: that be? 558 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,120 Speaker 7: I mean the market is pretty efficient. 559 00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 12: I mean I think part of the reason the oil 560 00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:27,040 Speaker 12: markets and energy markets are soft right now is growth. 561 00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:28,440 Speaker 7: I'm very downbeat on growth. 562 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 12: Yes, I was listening to Michael McKee talk about the data. 563 00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,720 Speaker 12: I looked at the data today's being very soft. If 564 00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:37,400 Speaker 12: we look at the private sector, excluding healthcare, because healthcare 565 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 12: is very interconnected, intertwined with government policy. The last three months, 566 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:45,360 Speaker 12: we have even generated forty thousand private sector jobs. The 567 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:50,280 Speaker 12: unemployment rate did tick down point zero three in August, 568 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:51,920 Speaker 12: but temporary hiring fell again. 569 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:53,240 Speaker 7: Manufacturing was weak. 570 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,320 Speaker 12: One of the areas of strength was in construction, but 571 00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:58,800 Speaker 12: it seems to me that's ripe for a major pullback, 572 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,640 Speaker 12: and of the big drop in construction openings and the 573 00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 12: fact that construction activity is extraordinarily softly. You look at 574 00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,840 Speaker 12: home sales, or look at pending home sales, or starts permits, 575 00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:14,440 Speaker 12: builder sentiment, all those things suggest to us that the 576 00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,040 Speaker 12: construction industry could shed up or is it a million. 577 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,520 Speaker 7: Workers, which by itself would push the unappoint rate up 578 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 7: near five percent? 579 00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,720 Speaker 4: Well, that certainly would be something four point two percent 580 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 4: is where we sat as of today's figures. As you 581 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,720 Speaker 4: talk about construction and housing specifically, of course, we know 582 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:32,600 Speaker 4: a lot of that has to do with just where 583 00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:36,240 Speaker 4: interest rates are in federal reserve policy. Donald Trump has suggested, 584 00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,200 Speaker 4: including in an interview on Bloomberg Business Week, and he's 585 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:40,959 Speaker 4: doubled down on it a few times now, that he 586 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 4: does think the FED should have input when it comes 587 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:48,000 Speaker 4: to monetary policy. What would that look like if the 588 00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:52,080 Speaker 4: US Central Bank wasn't fully independent of politics. 589 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:56,000 Speaker 12: Well, the FED is an independent institution, but that doesn't 590 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 12: mean the FED it is immune or should be immune 591 00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 12: from people criticizing it both construct you know, on a 592 00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:05,800 Speaker 12: constructive basis. We know that in twenty eighteen, and I 593 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,400 Speaker 12: argued this when I had nothing to do with the administration, 594 00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 12: that policy was too tight, and the President agreed, and 595 00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:12,880 Speaker 12: the FED wound up cutting because the FED was too tight. 596 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 12: One of the reasons why monetary policy is tight is 597 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 12: because inflation has been high and the FED has reacted 598 00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 12: to that by keeping rates elevated. I think rates will 599 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 12: come down, Rates need to come down, but that's because 600 00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:27,880 Speaker 12: I believe the economy is fundamentally soft. We've had basically 601 00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 12: every month, almost every month in the last three years, 602 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,560 Speaker 12: we've had the index libaiting indicators negative. This week we 603 00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,840 Speaker 12: saw industrial production in the ISM at its lowest level 604 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:40,840 Speaker 12: since pre COVID. So, yes, signals are mixed, but unfortunately, 605 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,200 Speaker 12: you know, they get mixed at turning points. And the 606 00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,000 Speaker 12: revisions in the data are very important because revisions in 607 00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:48,360 Speaker 12: the data often tell us about the underlying momentum in 608 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,200 Speaker 12: the economy. And the revisions we had that we learned 609 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 12: about a few weeks ago the eight hundred thousand plus. 610 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:57,160 Speaker 12: My analysis suggests it'll be closer to a million. But importantly, 611 00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,640 Speaker 12: these current revisions do not pick that up. So we 612 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:01,600 Speaker 12: could eat learn a year or so from now that 613 00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:03,800 Speaker 12: if we're not in recession, we're very close to one 614 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,040 Speaker 12: and that ultimately will bring rates down, which is a 615 00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,480 Speaker 12: good thing. But I think the comment on policy being restrictive, 616 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,239 Speaker 12: I think I don't have a problem with that. 617 00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:14,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, we could learn that this was a very different 618 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:18,000 Speaker 3: summer than we thought when it comes to the job market. Here, Jose, 619 00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:20,440 Speaker 3: a lot of people say, fifty basis points, let's get 620 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:20,720 Speaker 3: to it. 621 00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 5: The Fed's late. But you also know as well as I. 622 00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,360 Speaker 3: Do, that we're going to hear a loud cry of 623 00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:27,720 Speaker 3: that day that a cut of that magnitude at this 624 00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:29,320 Speaker 3: time is politically motivated. 625 00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:30,000 Speaker 5: What will you say? 626 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:32,400 Speaker 12: Look, I could be critical to FED, and I do 627 00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 12: it in a constructive way, and I think the President 628 00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:36,680 Speaker 12: has as well. What I could tell you is the 629 00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:40,280 Speaker 12: j Powell did market easing back in December and then 630 00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:44,239 Speaker 12: went on sixty minutes somewhat similar to Ben Bernanke and 631 00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:45,840 Speaker 12: talked about the need eventually. 632 00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:47,360 Speaker 7: To lower rates from a restrictive level. 633 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:49,800 Speaker 12: I was a little bit surprised that the pivot in June, 634 00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:51,560 Speaker 12: when the FED had three cuts, they went to one, 635 00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 12: and then by July they were talking about maybe cutting. 636 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 12: At that meeting, at least several members were. But I 637 00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,040 Speaker 12: think they've laid the groundwork for ray cuts. I do 638 00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:02,680 Speaker 12: think the economy soft. I'm not sure whether if fifty 639 00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:05,840 Speaker 12: or twenty five is going to make a huge difference 640 00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:07,520 Speaker 12: in terms of the longer term outlook. And I don't 641 00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,920 Speaker 12: think it really necessarily plays into the politics, because, as 642 00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,400 Speaker 12: you yourself have suggested, economists are debating whether it's twenty 643 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,120 Speaker 12: five or fifty. So I don't see this really as 644 00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:21,480 Speaker 12: being a political a political decision, all right, Well. 645 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,640 Speaker 4: That's fair enough, and as we've said, the FED has 646 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 4: made it very clear prefers to make these decisions independent 647 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,960 Speaker 4: of politics. As we consider, though, the idea that monetary 648 00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,640 Speaker 4: policy does have a lagged effect on the way it 649 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,720 Speaker 4: tightens and on the way it eases, regardless of whether 650 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,680 Speaker 4: or not Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins, what kind 651 00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:43,760 Speaker 4: of economy do you expect they will inherit in January 652 00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,720 Speaker 4: based on how much policy has eased and to what 653 00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,920 Speaker 4: extent that has actually influenced economic outcomes. 654 00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:53,280 Speaker 12: That's an excellent question because it's not clear we're in recession, 655 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,400 Speaker 12: and we may avoid recession if the Fed starts cutting 656 00:32:56,400 --> 00:33:00,600 Speaker 12: and equity markets can get excited about the future. I'll 657 00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,000 Speaker 12: leave it to the margus to decide what it thinks 658 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:05,800 Speaker 12: is going to be better for policy. Clearly, I'm familiar 659 00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:08,640 Speaker 12: with the President's economic policies and think from a supply 660 00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:15,240 Speaker 12: side capital formation, productivity, enhancing household income and wage boosting 661 00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 12: phenomenon that his policies will work much better than the alternative. 662 00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:24,200 Speaker 12: But to be honest, I don't know what vice President's 663 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:25,640 Speaker 12: economic policies are at this point. 664 00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:27,400 Speaker 7: We've got a little bits and pieces. She'll have to 665 00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:28,000 Speaker 7: describe it. 666 00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,720 Speaker 12: But the economy will be influenced by what happens in November, 667 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:33,280 Speaker 12: and we'll see what happens. I do think any short 668 00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,160 Speaker 12: term things are soft. I hope we avoid recession, but 669 00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 12: we'll see. 670 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:37,960 Speaker 2: Yeah. 671 00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,280 Speaker 3: As we spend time with Joe Lavornia here on Bloomberg 672 00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,640 Speaker 3: TV and Radio, I just want to get back to 673 00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:44,960 Speaker 3: this question about tariffs and energy, where we spent a 674 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 3: little bit of time Joe. There was reporting in Politico 675 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:50,120 Speaker 3: this week that the idea of imposing terrorists up to 676 00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,200 Speaker 3: twenty percent on all imported goods would have a direct 677 00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:56,760 Speaker 3: impact on gasoline exports. The eight million barrels of crude 678 00:33:56,800 --> 00:34:01,400 Speaker 3: oil that the US imports could be impacted and cause 679 00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:05,520 Speaker 3: ripple effects throughout the energy space. How do you balance 680 00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:09,080 Speaker 3: that with drill, baby drill and an effort to lower prices. 681 00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:13,120 Speaker 12: Well, I mean, look, you have to remember it's they're 682 00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,359 Speaker 12: going to be carve outs and all I could again 683 00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:20,160 Speaker 12: the tariffs are used as a means to reON shore 684 00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:21,080 Speaker 12: and as a means. 685 00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:24,000 Speaker 3: Donald Trump proposed that carve out. That's some important news 686 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:24,239 Speaker 3: of that. 687 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:26,719 Speaker 12: Well, no, I'm saying that when I say that in 688 00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:30,200 Speaker 12: terms of there are transactions involved. In other words, there's 689 00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:33,359 Speaker 12: certain countries that the President I think has a certain 690 00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:36,200 Speaker 12: view that maybe not contribute as much to NATO, or 691 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:40,200 Speaker 12: maybe aren't having what might be a level playing field 692 00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:42,719 Speaker 12: or fair trade. So I think it kind of depends 693 00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:47,040 Speaker 12: on what happens as things evolve. There's nothing that's predetermined, 694 00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:50,120 Speaker 12: and the President yesterday was very clear and not giving 695 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:54,360 Speaker 12: specific numbers as it related to specific regions and specific policies. 696 00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:56,880 Speaker 12: It's just an overall narrative, and we kind of know 697 00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:58,960 Speaker 12: where the direction of things are going, which is terrorifts 698 00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:02,440 Speaker 12: will be used to improve US bargaining position as it 699 00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:04,719 Speaker 12: relates to key industries and things of that sort. 700 00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,040 Speaker 4: Are you hoping, Joe, that you'll have a role in 701 00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:11,279 Speaker 4: the shaping of that policy if Trump wins a second term. 702 00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,600 Speaker 12: Thank you for asking. I'm very happy. I actually have 703 00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:18,320 Speaker 12: a Wall Street day job, and we'll see what happens. 704 00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:20,440 Speaker 12: But I very much like what I do, and if 705 00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:22,920 Speaker 12: I get the call to serve, obviously be honored. But 706 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:25,799 Speaker 12: right now, focused on the markets, which you know are very, 707 00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:28,600 Speaker 12: very tricky and interesting. We're trying to figure out twenty 708 00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:29,320 Speaker 12: five or fifty. 709 00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,960 Speaker 3: All right, stay in touch with us on that, Joeliforne, 710 00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,080 Speaker 3: great to have you back, Joe, America. 711 00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:36,720 Speaker 5: First Policy Institute Senior fellow. 712 00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,920 Speaker 3: That's a deep dive with Michael McKee and Joelifornia with 713 00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:41,760 Speaker 3: our eyes on the markets, of course, on a big 714 00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,920 Speaker 3: day for economic data against the backdrop of these economic 715 00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:47,960 Speaker 3: proposals from the two candidates. 716 00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:54,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 717 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,799 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 718 00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:00,520 Speaker 1: royin Oo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also 719 00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,680 Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York 720 00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:07,120 Speaker 1: station Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 721 00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,400 Speaker 3: Now I'm starting to lose my ability to tell what 722 00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:13,799 Speaker 3: is good news and bad news around here. Thankfully, that's 723 00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:16,120 Speaker 3: not my job. It is the job of Ed Mills, 724 00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:18,040 Speaker 3: who I'm happy to say is with us at the 725 00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:21,440 Speaker 3: table today in Washington. Managing director Raymond James Ed, it's 726 00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:23,520 Speaker 3: good to see you here in the studio. Thanks for 727 00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:25,160 Speaker 3: coming in. I'm going to ask you a little bit 728 00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,080 Speaker 3: about some of the candidate's plans that we've heard this week. 729 00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,480 Speaker 3: But I'd love your take on this Job's report this morning, 730 00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:31,640 Speaker 3: because it does seem like one of these sets of 731 00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:34,960 Speaker 3: data where you can find whatever it is you're looking for. 732 00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:37,120 Speaker 3: I thought the whole point, though, was for the FED 733 00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,680 Speaker 3: to start slowing the job market so it could start 734 00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:41,239 Speaker 3: cutting rates. 735 00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:42,360 Speaker 5: Isn't this going as planned? 736 00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:47,239 Speaker 14: Arguably yes, And arguably it's pretty amazing because when you 737 00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:52,359 Speaker 14: look back at previous presidential administrations. Yeah, it's a kind 738 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:56,320 Speaker 14: of almost taboo in DC to ever celebrate the economy 739 00:36:56,360 --> 00:37:00,400 Speaker 14: too much because what goes up goes down, and for 740 00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:03,040 Speaker 14: the Biden administration. This is still an administration that has 741 00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:07,000 Speaker 14: had record job growth during his term. We're kind of 742 00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:10,680 Speaker 14: north of fifteen million jobs created since he's come into office. 743 00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:12,920 Speaker 14: And so you would say, all right, someone in that 744 00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:17,600 Speaker 14: position as his vice president is running, shouldn't that be 745 00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:21,720 Speaker 14: an asset? But and things in life is always compared 746 00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,279 Speaker 14: to what and so where the direction is, where the 747 00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:28,080 Speaker 14: momentum is. Any sign of weakness, Trump is going to 748 00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,279 Speaker 14: seize on that and try to weigh down and tie 749 00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:33,279 Speaker 14: it to inflation. In some of the other parts of 750 00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,080 Speaker 14: where voters think that the country is on the wrong track. 751 00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:37,839 Speaker 3: Political season, It was just a couple of weeks ago 752 00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,360 Speaker 3: that Jay Powell said the job market was in balance? 753 00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:43,000 Speaker 13: Is it not well? 754 00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,440 Speaker 14: I mean, when we look at the unemployment rate, when 755 00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,960 Speaker 14: we look at the job creation over the last four 756 00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:53,240 Speaker 14: years after coming out of the pandemic, there's a really 757 00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:57,120 Speaker 14: lot of positive things to say. Wage growth added into that. 758 00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,480 Speaker 14: I don't think if you were to kind of zoom 759 00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:05,319 Speaker 14: out and ask someone when you have a unemployment rate 760 00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:09,920 Speaker 14: in the fours and job creation that has been steady, 761 00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,840 Speaker 14: people would say that's largely imbalanced. I don't think there 762 00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:16,440 Speaker 14: would be a view that there is a crisis, but 763 00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:20,000 Speaker 14: it's kind of a concern of directionally, is the other 764 00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,839 Speaker 14: shoe about to drop? And is that the reason why 765 00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:25,000 Speaker 14: the Fed has to move here in September? And how 766 00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:29,560 Speaker 14: aggressively should they move? Clearly the debate that we get 767 00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:30,520 Speaker 14: here at Raymonds. 768 00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:32,640 Speaker 5: Ye are you at fifty now? As we're split on. 769 00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:34,880 Speaker 14: This, Yeah, I mean I think it makes more sense 770 00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:39,000 Speaker 14: to kind of take the over between twenty five or 771 00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:42,040 Speaker 14: fifty basis points. The reason not to is I do 772 00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:46,760 Speaker 14: think that the Fed is concerned about stimulating the economy 773 00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:49,399 Speaker 14: too much, having a second wave of inflation. You've seen 774 00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,680 Speaker 14: them take every rate hike that they could get to 775 00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:55,719 Speaker 14: have the dry powder. So if I would caution to 776 00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:58,759 Speaker 14: not go too far too fast, If they do fifty now, 777 00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:01,799 Speaker 14: that could be slower cuts later this year. 778 00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:04,279 Speaker 13: Understands to understand what the impact of the election. 779 00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:05,920 Speaker 3: Is to get to the same spot eventually, just a 780 00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:09,080 Speaker 3: question of where and how these cuts fall ed. 781 00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:09,440 Speaker 5: Mills. 782 00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:12,040 Speaker 3: You've been watching, like we have the candidates roll out 783 00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:14,719 Speaker 3: economic plans. They're leaving a lot of holes in these 784 00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:15,600 Speaker 3: plans that roll out. 785 00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:16,799 Speaker 13: It's doing a lot of work. 786 00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:19,240 Speaker 5: It might yeah, okay, fine, so we've got a couple headlines. 787 00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:19,880 Speaker 2: That's what we have. 788 00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:21,719 Speaker 3: And Donald Trump had a big one yesterday on the 789 00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:23,680 Speaker 3: corporate tax rate. Let's listen to what he said before 790 00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:25,479 Speaker 3: the Economic Club of New York. 791 00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:29,719 Speaker 15: To further support the revival of American manufacturing, my plan 792 00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:33,600 Speaker 15: calls for expanded R and D tax credits, one hundred 793 00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:39,960 Speaker 15: percent bonus deppreciation expensing for new manufacturing investments, and a 794 00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:44,160 Speaker 15: reduction in the corporate tax rate from twenty one percent 795 00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:48,920 Speaker 15: to fifteen percent, solely for companies that make their product 796 00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:49,759 Speaker 15: in America. 797 00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:53,919 Speaker 3: All right there, it is so fifteen percent, we've heard 798 00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:57,240 Speaker 3: that before. Unclear he can get that through Congress. Kamala 799 00:39:57,280 --> 00:39:59,560 Speaker 3: Harris looking for a higher number in this case, but 800 00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:03,120 Speaker 3: she put forth a smaller than expected number on capital 801 00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,800 Speaker 3: gains taxes for the highest earners. You throw all this 802 00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,080 Speaker 3: stuff up in the air, Ed Mills, Wall Street thinks 803 00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:10,440 Speaker 3: it has a sense. It's trying to react to this stuff. 804 00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:12,760 Speaker 3: Do you have enough of a picture to make a ruling? 805 00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:15,600 Speaker 14: So I think what we've said is that who wins 806 00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:20,120 Speaker 14: the presidency will dictate this debate, and if there is 807 00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:23,560 Speaker 14: a Trump presidency, most if not all, of the tax 808 00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:28,239 Speaker 14: cuts will get extended. If Harris Wins. I think there 809 00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:31,440 Speaker 14: is a strong kind of argument to be made where most, 810 00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:35,000 Speaker 14: if not all, of the individual tax cuts reset and 811 00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:38,240 Speaker 14: what gets paid for could be something that comes later 812 00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:41,160 Speaker 14: on as it relates to the R and D tax 813 00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:43,839 Speaker 14: credit bonus appreciation where you let off in those clips. Yes, 814 00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,560 Speaker 14: those were all parts of the twenty seventeen tax cuts. 815 00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:50,439 Speaker 14: Donald Trump gets credit for those those have expired. There's 816 00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:53,640 Speaker 14: bipartisan support to get those extended. Those will be extended. 817 00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:56,920 Speaker 14: I think the caveat on that fifteen percent, if it 818 00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:59,600 Speaker 14: is made in the United States, is because the fact 819 00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:02,200 Speaker 14: that when we look at the price tag of extending 820 00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,839 Speaker 14: out these tax cuts just on the individual, it's four 821 00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:08,200 Speaker 14: point six trillion, So doing a one percent cut is 822 00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:09,840 Speaker 14: about one hundred and thirty to one hundred and fifty 823 00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,279 Speaker 14: billion dollars. So you're not going to get down to 824 00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,560 Speaker 14: fifteen percent across the board. But what he is trying 825 00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:18,520 Speaker 14: to do, and what he always does, is move the goalposts. 826 00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:23,920 Speaker 14: So preserving what's there becomes the compromise versus being what 827 00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:27,960 Speaker 14: is battled over. It's just I think a negotiating tactic 828 00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:29,000 Speaker 14: from his perspective. 829 00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,080 Speaker 3: Okay, so that's a starting point here. Yeah, I guess, 830 00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:33,920 Speaker 3: how about you paying for all this stuff? On either 831 00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:37,120 Speaker 3: side here there have been you know, I guess talking 832 00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:37,799 Speaker 3: points right. 833 00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:39,120 Speaker 5: Trump says we'll grow out of it. 834 00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:43,279 Speaker 3: Drill baby, drill will lower energy prices to get there, 835 00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:46,879 Speaker 3: essentially in stoke growth that will absorb the. 836 00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:48,640 Speaker 5: Extra spending and tariffs. 837 00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,120 Speaker 3: Yes, and you can find a lot of economists who 838 00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:54,680 Speaker 3: have big questions about that. Kamala Harris has her own 839 00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:57,759 Speaker 3: approach here, this price gouging thing that has a lot 840 00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:03,400 Speaker 3: of people very upset. Also, housing initiatives. Wall Street's done 841 00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:06,520 Speaker 3: pretty well under the Biden administration. But the markets seem 842 00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:08,200 Speaker 3: to have a bias here. And maybe you see it 843 00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:11,240 Speaker 3: differently that Donald Trump in fact will be friendlier to investors. 844 00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:12,040 Speaker 5: Do you see it that way? 845 00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:13,960 Speaker 13: I think it's much more nuanced than that. 846 00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:16,399 Speaker 14: And my job at Raymond James has to been to say, 847 00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:18,800 Speaker 14: all right, here are the Trump policies that could be 848 00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:20,880 Speaker 14: good for the market, here are the ones that are negative, 849 00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:24,120 Speaker 14: and here's for Harris that are good and negative. I 850 00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:27,279 Speaker 14: do think that the market generally likes split government. And 851 00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:30,360 Speaker 14: what I hear a lot at Raymond James's concerns about 852 00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:32,920 Speaker 14: is there a second wave of inflation. If Trump is 853 00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:36,120 Speaker 14: reelected under his tariff, trade and immigration. 854 00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:38,520 Speaker 3: Policies, well that's a big question there, and that would 855 00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:41,560 Speaker 3: not be very friendly to Wall Street. So you're kind 856 00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:43,920 Speaker 3: of cherry picking. Then what do you want to. 857 00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:45,960 Speaker 13: Hear Tuesday and analyzing? Not cherry picking? 858 00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:49,640 Speaker 3: I mean that's not fair, but you're looking at different 859 00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:54,080 Speaker 3: elements that might benefit the markets from both campaigns. Can 860 00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:56,600 Speaker 3: you crystallize that more after this debate Tuesday night. 861 00:42:57,320 --> 00:42:59,440 Speaker 14: That is my hope, and that is my goal. I mean, 862 00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:01,600 Speaker 14: I do think that what the market will be most 863 00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:03,680 Speaker 14: focused on are the twin fiscal cliffs of the debt 864 00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:07,000 Speaker 14: limit and the extension of the tax cuts at the 865 00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:09,279 Speaker 14: end of the year next year. One thing that we've 866 00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:12,279 Speaker 14: highlighted that we think happens regardless, and I think that's 867 00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:14,600 Speaker 14: been a fun part of this, is that we think 868 00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:18,680 Speaker 14: that there's energy permitting reform regardless of who wins, that's 869 00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:22,120 Speaker 14: going to help and supercharge the Inflation Reduction Act, that 870 00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:25,680 Speaker 14: should help capex, that will help construction, that will help jobs. 871 00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:29,680 Speaker 14: And so if either of them win, we'll all focus 872 00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:33,200 Speaker 14: on some of those positive aspects of the agenda and 873 00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:35,600 Speaker 14: give a reason why the market should go up usually 874 00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:38,319 Speaker 14: the year after a presidential election. For the S and 875 00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:41,880 Speaker 14: P five hundred, it's a pretty robust and positive outcome 876 00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:44,359 Speaker 14: for the market. Great once we get that uncertainty out 877 00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:44,680 Speaker 14: of the way. 878 00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:46,680 Speaker 3: I've been looking forward to this conversation. Can we stay 879 00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:48,480 Speaker 3: in touch between now and the election? Because I want 880 00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:50,479 Speaker 3: to know where your head is. This is important stuff 881 00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:53,120 Speaker 3: in a conversation you'll only hear on Bloomberg. 882 00:43:56,719 --> 00:44:00,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Can't 883 00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:03,880 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Epocarplay. 884 00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,440 Speaker 2: And then Proudoro with the Bloomberg Business app. 885 00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:08,920 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, watch us 886 00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:12,279 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 887 00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:15,640 Speaker 3: This all being factored, of course, into the conversation that's 888 00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,440 Speaker 3: going to be had in Philadelphia next Tuesday. The economy 889 00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:22,560 Speaker 3: will loom large over the presidential debate. Donald Trump Kamala 890 00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:25,600 Speaker 3: Harris might be the only one we get. ABC News 891 00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,280 Speaker 3: will bring it to you live here in special coverage 892 00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:31,080 Speaker 3: on Tuesday night, and a great story on our terminal 893 00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:35,359 Speaker 3: right now about prep once again, the two candidates are 894 00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:41,960 Speaker 3: taken two very different roads to Philadelphia literally and metaphysically. 895 00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:44,399 Speaker 3: Kamala Harris is hunker down at Pittsburgh right now. It's 896 00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:45,840 Speaker 3: going to spend the whole weekend there, and they're actually 897 00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:48,680 Speaker 3: doing mock debates, as we've told you, with Philip Rains 898 00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:52,040 Speaker 3: dressed up in a big suit, red tie playing Donald Trump. 899 00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:54,960 Speaker 3: He did this with Hillary Clinton, as I read in 900 00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:58,480 Speaker 3: this great story by Bloomberg. Though Trump team sees it 901 00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:01,239 Speaker 3: awfully different. JDV says, we're not going to have some 902 00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:05,120 Speaker 3: formal debate prep session. He likes to sit down workshop 903 00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:09,279 Speaker 3: one liners. He considers moments like yesterday that we showed 904 00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:10,880 Speaker 3: you at the Economic Club of New York to be 905 00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:13,680 Speaker 3: prep And so they're coming from two very different areas 906 00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:15,440 Speaker 3: here and a lot of questions about what will happen 907 00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:18,319 Speaker 3: when they come together. Look who's back to talk to 908 00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:21,320 Speaker 3: us about it, Wendy Benjaminson, back in the nation's capital, 909 00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:25,600 Speaker 3: of course, reporting for Bloomberg, our senior Washington editor. Nice 910 00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:27,600 Speaker 3: to see you back just in time for the big 911 00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:30,359 Speaker 3: throw down here. We talked around the first debate when 912 00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:32,279 Speaker 3: it was Joe Biden. How different is this one going 913 00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:34,200 Speaker 3: to Because the rules, it turns out. 914 00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:35,640 Speaker 5: Wendy, are the same. The mics will be mute at 915 00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:37,200 Speaker 5: all the same stuff. I guess we'll have a press 916 00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:37,839 Speaker 5: pool in the room. 917 00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:43,280 Speaker 3: But Donald Trump needs to calibrate or modify his approach 918 00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:44,520 Speaker 3: in what way at all? 919 00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:48,440 Speaker 16: Well, not too much, actually, because the strategy within Trump 920 00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:54,279 Speaker 16: world is for him to let Kamala Harris speak. He 921 00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:57,759 Speaker 16: wants her to go into her long winded answers that 922 00:45:57,800 --> 00:46:00,520 Speaker 16: we saw on the CNN debate, remember, and she can 923 00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:04,320 Speaker 16: kind of meander down a wandering path to the point 924 00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:07,320 Speaker 16: of her sentences. It's just one of her personality ticks, 925 00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,319 Speaker 16: and she can do that. Trump wants viewers to hear 926 00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:14,560 Speaker 16: her say that we noticed in the first debate that Trump, 927 00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:17,960 Speaker 16: at least compared to the awful performance President Biden put in, 928 00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:22,719 Speaker 16: he was able to because he was being disciplined by 929 00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:25,360 Speaker 16: the muted mics. He was the one who was able 930 00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:28,560 Speaker 16: to keep his answers short and to the point and 931 00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:30,240 Speaker 16: relatively on topic. 932 00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:32,920 Speaker 13: So her her. 933 00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:36,400 Speaker 16: Goal in this debate is to knock him off a 934 00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:39,239 Speaker 16: little bit. I think she'll try to fact check him, 935 00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:41,719 Speaker 16: use her time to fact check, use her time to 936 00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,880 Speaker 16: argue with him, and to kind of probably tick him 937 00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:48,200 Speaker 16: off a little bit. That would be my strategy. She 938 00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:52,880 Speaker 16: wanted that bad. She really really can't do that, and 939 00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:55,000 Speaker 16: they could spa a little bit. The one thing I 940 00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:56,920 Speaker 16: don't think we're going to see in this debate is 941 00:46:56,920 --> 00:46:59,560 Speaker 16: a is the two of them walking out over things 942 00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:03,520 Speaker 16: like the differences between their tariffs on tips, I mean 943 00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:07,080 Speaker 16: their taxes on touch income policies. I think they're going 944 00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:10,560 Speaker 16: to go for Kamala Harris wants to you know, introduce 945 00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:13,799 Speaker 16: herself more to people. She wants to talk about her biography. 946 00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:18,120 Speaker 16: She wants to make him look bad, and his goal 947 00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:20,520 Speaker 16: is the same. But I think, you know, and he's 948 00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:23,799 Speaker 16: an experienced showman, so I think he's going to you know, 949 00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:27,760 Speaker 16: really you know, hit all of his grade one liners 950 00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:28,960 Speaker 16: that he's been working on all the Wait. 951 00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:32,280 Speaker 3: Well, I guess, so we're going to find out. It's 952 00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:36,280 Speaker 3: curious though the headline on the story is style over substance. 953 00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:38,279 Speaker 5: These are two candidates. 954 00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:42,279 Speaker 3: Who have left voters hungry for details. Sounds like they're 955 00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:43,480 Speaker 3: not going to get any. 956 00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:44,080 Speaker 13: They may not. 957 00:47:44,360 --> 00:47:48,120 Speaker 16: I mean, the questions should elicit some factual answers, but 958 00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:50,160 Speaker 16: I don't think they're going to spend a lot of time. 959 00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:51,680 Speaker 5: It's a personality contest. 960 00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:55,399 Speaker 16: This one might be a personality contest, but we'll see. 961 00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:56,520 Speaker 16: Maybe they will get into it. 962 00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:58,319 Speaker 5: Knowing there's a good chance this will be the only 963 00:47:58,320 --> 00:47:59,520 Speaker 5: debate we get between. 964 00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:00,000 Speaker 16: These things exactly. 965 00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:00,839 Speaker 5: I mean, depending on. 966 00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:02,840 Speaker 3: How this goes, I suspect will determine whether there's a 967 00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:04,200 Speaker 3: second debate, right. 968 00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:06,560 Speaker 16: I mean this they just want to keep their base 969 00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:10,319 Speaker 16: and attract a few new voters, and maybe getting into 970 00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:12,799 Speaker 16: the weeds on policies might not be the way to 971 00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:13,160 Speaker 16: do that. 972 00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:17,240 Speaker 3: Interesting, this is a nine o'clock throw down. She doesn't 973 00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:20,080 Speaker 3: have the whole eight o'clock issue that Joe Biden have. 974 00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:21,640 Speaker 5: What issues does she have? 975 00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:21,879 Speaker 2: Though? 976 00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:24,360 Speaker 3: Is it train of thought? As you said, the meandering answers? 977 00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:27,359 Speaker 3: Because Donald Trump was called out for that frequently as well. 978 00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:28,960 Speaker 3: He was talking about wind the other day and he 979 00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:32,000 Speaker 3: went right into bacon and then there wasn't Sometimes these 980 00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:34,640 Speaker 3: are sometimes they're both hard to follow, right. 981 00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:38,600 Speaker 16: Oh, absolutely, And Trump is famous for winding down into 982 00:48:39,200 --> 00:48:41,799 Speaker 16: sharks and batteries and things like that that we don't know. 983 00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:44,520 Speaker 16: She is actually a very good debater, and remember she 984 00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:49,320 Speaker 16: is a prosecutor exactly. She nailed him in twenty nineteen 985 00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:53,719 Speaker 16: on his nineteen seventies vote on buzzing to end segregations. 986 00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:57,279 Speaker 16: She hit Telsey Gabbard pretty hard in debates with in 987 00:48:57,320 --> 00:49:00,120 Speaker 16: that year. And if you remember the Brett cav and 988 00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:04,359 Speaker 16: All Supreme Court confirmation hearings, when she wants to drill 989 00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:07,720 Speaker 16: down and nail someone, she is quite capable of deerating 990 00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:08,080 Speaker 16: a hearing. 991 00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:08,440 Speaker 2: That's right. 992 00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:09,840 Speaker 5: Sure, we'll see if she can duplicate that. 993 00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:13,280 Speaker 16: And he can only hurt himself with the one liners. 994 00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:16,719 Speaker 16: If he calls her nasty or questions her race and ethnicity, 995 00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:17,759 Speaker 16: that could go bad. 996 00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:20,239 Speaker 5: Oh, we're doing this, Wendy. Thank you. 997 00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:22,680 Speaker 3: It's great to have you back. Wendy Benjaminson. See she's 998 00:49:22,719 --> 00:49:25,920 Speaker 3: still with us Washington, senior editor here at Bloomberg and 999 00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:28,359 Speaker 3: the force behind our Bloomberg Swing State Pole. 1000 00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:30,359 Speaker 5: You know who else is here. I've been looking forward 1001 00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:30,680 Speaker 5: to this. 1002 00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,920 Speaker 3: The voice of New Hampshire, the voice of the establishment 1003 00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:38,040 Speaker 3: Republican Party in New Hampshire. I'm not talking about Chris Snunu. 1004 00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:41,640 Speaker 3: I'm talking about Steve Dupree, former chairman of the New 1005 00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:44,920 Speaker 3: Hampshire Republican Party, now owner of dupre Companies. And he's 1006 00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:46,799 Speaker 3: been with us before. Of course we spent some time 1007 00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:49,000 Speaker 3: together in New Hampshire. He was behind Nicki Haley and 1008 00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:52,839 Speaker 3: now he's trying to figure out what to do in November. Steve, 1009 00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,440 Speaker 3: it's great to see you. Welcome back and thanks for 1010 00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:57,400 Speaker 3: joining us here on Bloomberg. What do you want to 1011 00:49:57,440 --> 00:49:59,760 Speaker 3: hear on Tuesday Night or is your mind. 1012 00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:01,279 Speaker 5: Made of Well? 1013 00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:04,120 Speaker 11: I'd like to hear substance, but I think, as we've 1014 00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:06,959 Speaker 11: all predicted, it will be short on substance and more 1015 00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:10,759 Speaker 11: on style. And I think the commentators have dailed it. 1016 00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:13,719 Speaker 11: We have a showman who's created one liners, and we 1017 00:50:13,840 --> 00:50:17,440 Speaker 11: have a prosecutor former attorney general who's good on the facts. 1018 00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:21,080 Speaker 11: So it'll be very interesting to see the interaction. I 1019 00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:23,560 Speaker 11: think for people who are still on the fence, there 1020 00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:25,439 Speaker 11: are a lot of people who remember what they think 1021 00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:29,640 Speaker 11: was a better economy under President Trump, and he's going 1022 00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:32,560 Speaker 11: to remind voters of that, and I think try to 1023 00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:35,799 Speaker 11: put Vice President Harris on the defensive, saying, hey, this 1024 00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:39,040 Speaker 11: is your economy and the price of groceries is your responsibility. 1025 00:50:39,320 --> 00:50:41,719 Speaker 11: And she's got to counter that. She's got to somehow 1026 00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:45,640 Speaker 11: separate herself from the Biden administration and make Donald Trump, 1027 00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:50,359 Speaker 11: in the way he conducts himself and his erratic policy pronouncements, 1028 00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:55,279 Speaker 11: the issue, and somehow diplomatically also point out that now 1029 00:50:55,320 --> 00:50:58,279 Speaker 11: there's only one very older candidate in the race, who, 1030 00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:01,440 Speaker 11: if elected, would be older than Joe Biden was when 1031 00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:04,360 Speaker 11: he took the oath of office. So it's going to 1032 00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:06,799 Speaker 11: be a very interesting show. I think there is a 1033 00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:13,319 Speaker 11: group of persuadable Hayley slash McCain, Bush slash Reagan Republicans 1034 00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:15,960 Speaker 11: out there who have not made up their mind. They 1035 00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:21,759 Speaker 11: probably disagree with many of Vice President Harris's policy proposals, 1036 00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:24,960 Speaker 11: but they're also offended to some degree by the conduct 1037 00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:28,799 Speaker 11: of former President Trump. They're understood out there, and they 1038 00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:29,840 Speaker 11: could determine the election. 1039 00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:34,160 Speaker 3: They could determine the election, certainly in a state like 1040 00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:36,880 Speaker 3: New Hampshire, if we zero in on the state that 1041 00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:39,600 Speaker 3: you know so much about, Steve, there was reporting this 1042 00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:42,120 Speaker 3: week that New Hampshire might be off the table for 1043 00:51:42,160 --> 00:51:45,760 Speaker 3: the Trump campaign. That take has been challenged. I wonder 1044 00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:47,600 Speaker 3: if you see it differently. 1045 00:51:48,680 --> 00:51:51,440 Speaker 11: No, I know the Trump folks very well. I know 1046 00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:55,160 Speaker 11: Corey Lewandowskie, Steve Stephanak, some of the leaders. That was 1047 00:51:55,280 --> 00:52:00,319 Speaker 11: a foolish pronouncement, apparently by a volunteer from Massachuset. Since 1048 00:52:00,560 --> 00:52:04,200 Speaker 11: the Trump campaign is working hard in New Hampshire and 1049 00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:07,600 Speaker 11: the assumption of the rewarding that they're pulling out is 1050 00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:10,120 Speaker 11: just incorrect. And I will point out that in twenty 1051 00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:12,920 Speaker 11: sixteen when he ran, it was no effort. In twenty 1052 00:52:13,040 --> 00:52:16,240 Speaker 11: twenties loosely organized. They are very well organized. They showed 1053 00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:18,720 Speaker 11: that in the primary, and they are contesting the state. 1054 00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:22,520 Speaker 11: And I know the polls currently show Vice President hair 1055 00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:25,560 Speaker 11: Us up by about six points. And she was here 1056 00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:28,440 Speaker 11: and had a very successful visit on Wednesday, but this 1057 00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:30,480 Speaker 11: state is very much in play. 1058 00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:33,719 Speaker 3: It's interesting she chose to go to New Hampshire to 1059 00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:36,040 Speaker 3: talk about the economy. Stephen, I'm wondering if anyone is 1060 00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:39,440 Speaker 3: resonating with you. As a fiscal conservative, it's not a 1061 00:52:39,520 --> 00:52:43,640 Speaker 3: question of which candidate might be responsible for more deficit spending. 1062 00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:45,560 Speaker 3: It's about which candidate will spend more. 1063 00:52:45,600 --> 00:52:46,080 Speaker 5: Am I wrong? 1064 00:52:47,640 --> 00:52:47,799 Speaker 2: No? 1065 00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:50,120 Speaker 11: And for those of us who actually believe the debt 1066 00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:53,440 Speaker 11: and deficit matters, what's happened? I remember in two thousand 1067 00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:56,880 Speaker 11: and eight when John McCain and Barack Obama were arguing 1068 00:52:56,920 --> 00:52:59,480 Speaker 11: about an eight trillion dollar death sit not won the 1069 00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:03,440 Speaker 11: size of now. It's just amazing to me that neither 1070 00:53:03,520 --> 00:53:06,480 Speaker 11: candidates seems focused on that because there aren't easy answers 1071 00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:07,640 Speaker 11: to it, as we all know. 1072 00:53:08,239 --> 00:53:10,640 Speaker 17: I actually thought it was a smart move by Vice 1073 00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:13,040 Speaker 17: President Harris to come to New Hampshire and talk about 1074 00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:17,640 Speaker 17: supporting small businesses because this is a state primarily made 1075 00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:19,360 Speaker 17: up of very small businesses. 1076 00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:23,280 Speaker 11: So I think that's an appealing message. That's a differentiation 1077 00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:26,480 Speaker 11: from what the Biden administration did in many regards. So 1078 00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:29,279 Speaker 11: from all accounts, and I was not there. I don't 1079 00:53:29,280 --> 00:53:31,879 Speaker 11: go to many political events. I try to avoid as 1080 00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:33,560 Speaker 11: many as I can. We've got a bunch of hot 1081 00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:36,759 Speaker 11: races here in New Hampshire. It was a successful visit, 1082 00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:40,440 Speaker 11: and of course every time President Trump comes to New Hampshire, 1083 00:53:40,440 --> 00:53:43,160 Speaker 11: the rallies are big, and he has an incredibly large 1084 00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:45,080 Speaker 11: crowd the way he does at all of his rallies. 1085 00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:47,239 Speaker 11: So I think both of them are fighting hard. Both 1086 00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:49,920 Speaker 11: have organizations in the state. In fact, there are races 1087 00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:53,080 Speaker 11: down ballot for governor for Congress that are very hotly contested. 1088 00:53:53,600 --> 00:53:56,600 Speaker 11: Means the Trump campaign will be here and those reports 1089 00:53:56,640 --> 00:53:59,319 Speaker 11: are just not that they somehow pulled out, are just 1090 00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:00,480 Speaker 11: not accurate. 1091 00:54:01,600 --> 00:54:04,280 Speaker 3: Well, this is really important to hear from a credible 1092 00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:05,120 Speaker 3: voice in New Hampshire. 1093 00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:06,399 Speaker 5: I've only got about a minute left. 1094 00:54:06,719 --> 00:54:10,720 Speaker 3: Steve will small business then break for Trump or Harris 1095 00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:11,560 Speaker 3: in New Hampshire. 1096 00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:15,880 Speaker 11: You know, that's a very interesting play because those of 1097 00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:18,520 Speaker 11: us in small businesses like my own remember some of 1098 00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:21,759 Speaker 11: the tax breaks and tax cuts that help particularly as 1099 00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:24,560 Speaker 11: we went through as we right before we went in COVID. 1100 00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:26,960 Speaker 11: But then again the Biden administration put in lots of 1101 00:54:27,000 --> 00:54:31,080 Speaker 11: supports that helped the state and kept the economy going. 1102 00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:35,040 Speaker 11: So I think that small business people are very much 1103 00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:37,400 Speaker 11: in play, just like you hear the President and the 1104 00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:42,040 Speaker 11: Vice President talking about non taxing tips for wait staff 1105 00:54:42,040 --> 00:54:45,000 Speaker 11: and workers like that. That's very popular, and they're both 1106 00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:47,240 Speaker 11: trying to appeal to that small slice of the audience 1107 00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:49,360 Speaker 11: that in six or seven states can make the difference 1108 00:54:49,360 --> 00:54:49,960 Speaker 11: in the outcome. 1109 00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:54,799 Speaker 3: The voice of Republican politics in New Hampshire, and of 1110 00:54:54,840 --> 00:54:55,919 Speaker 3: course the Snowshoe Club. 1111 00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:57,480 Speaker 5: Steve, it's great to see you. 1112 00:54:57,480 --> 00:55:00,399 Speaker 3: Your input is important to us. Let's stay in touch 1113 00:55:00,440 --> 00:55:03,080 Speaker 3: as we get closer to November. Steve Dupree to pre 1114 00:55:03,160 --> 00:55:07,320 Speaker 3: company's former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party. 1115 00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:11,839 Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 1116 00:55:12,440 --> 00:55:14,880 Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, 1117 00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:18,000 Speaker 3: Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can 1118 00:55:18,040 --> 00:55:21,120 Speaker 3: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime 1119 00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:23,280 Speaker 3: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.