1 00:00:01,000 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: Welcome back to Betting pros as college football Win Total 2 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: preview series. I am your host, Thorn Eistrom, joined as 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,720 Speaker 1: always by my partner in crime, Mike Farrell of Mike 4 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 1: Farrell Sports. Today we're going to be talking about the 5 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 1: PAC twelve and giving you all our favorite win total 6 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:18,959 Speaker 1: bets from all around that conference and sharing all the 7 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 1: intel that we have collected over this summer. Beginning with 8 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: Lincoln Riley's USC Trojans and the defending Heisman winner Caleb Williams. 9 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: Their win total said at nine and a half, there 10 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: is some tens out there, just like with Clemson. You 11 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:36,199 Speaker 1: got nine and a half in tens depending on where 12 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 1: you shop, So look around depending on where you think 13 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 1: of USC. Mike at that win total, Caleb Williams coming back, 14 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 1: of course, you still have some questions on defense. Fun 15 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 1: team though, What do you think about USC? And where 16 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 1: would you go with that win. 17 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:51,599 Speaker 2: Total under nine and three? Oh, they didn't make well, 18 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 2: they didn't make the changes they needed to make on defense. 19 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 2: I mean, Alex Grinch is there no offense? Dallas French, 20 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 2: but she's still there. We saw that, doesn't you know 21 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 2: fly at Oklahoma? It didn't fly last year they're not 22 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 2: that good in the trenches. You know, they should be 23 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:12,679 Speaker 2: slightly improved. The defense is going to be an issue. 24 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 2: But my problem is not with the roster. Of course, 25 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 2: Kayler Williams is amazing. Of Course, Dorian Singer is going 26 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:22,119 Speaker 2: to be probably better than Addison was as far as 27 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 2: an impact guy. You know, the running game should be okay, 28 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 2: I'm not sure you know how much Marshawn Lloyd brings. 29 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 2: I mean, he's good. A lot of people looking at 30 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:36,400 Speaker 2: that high school rating and it's a different back. But 31 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 2: my problem is the PAC twelve is really good. I 32 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 2: mean that this is not an easy road. It's just 33 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 2: if this league was average, if this was prior to 34 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 2: last season, and Washington was Washington, you know, and Oregon 35 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 2: was solid, you know, but still you know, backing their 36 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 2: way into a COVID twelve title and losing games that 37 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 2: they shouldn't win, and you know, the teams of you know, 38 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 2: Utah and Oregon State and everybody's improved, even Colorado, which 39 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:14,239 Speaker 2: we'll get to. You know, I'm not saying Colorado's beating USC, 40 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 2: but the depth of that conference is so much better 41 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 2: now that I think, you know, he took that step 42 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 2: from four and eight, and I think it's gonna be 43 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 2: a slight step backwards because I don't trust them in 44 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 2: the trenches or the defense. So I'm thinking nine and three, 45 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 2: which isn't bad, but I'm not taking nine and a 46 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 2: half above and I'm certainly not touching ten. 47 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna I'm gonna preference my comments by saying this. 48 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 1: This is how I see the PAC twelve, which is 49 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:42,080 Speaker 1: I agree with you qualitatively. They've got this conference, and 50 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 1: it's really unfortunate because rip PAC twelve. This gonna be 51 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: the last summer in RP. 52 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,959 Speaker 2: We're pretty good year to go out, but a very good. 53 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:50,679 Speaker 1: Year to go out. But the way that I see 54 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: this conference, they have three elite teams, three teams that 55 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:55,920 Speaker 1: wouldn't surprise me at all if they make the you know, 56 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:58,079 Speaker 1: one of these three teams can make the College Football Playoff, 57 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 1: and probably will usc OR and Washington, And then. 58 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 2: I think, there you, how dare you not include you to? 59 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 1: So if Rising and Keithy were healthy and I was 60 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 1: confident that those guys are gonna play twelve, they absolutely 61 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:12,239 Speaker 1: be included. But I'll put them right, you know, I'll 62 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 1: put them in Tier one B just because of those 63 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:18,079 Speaker 1: slight questions. And then there's two other teams that are 64 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: in that conference that I think are very good, so 65 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 1: I'll put them Tier two, Oregon State and UCLA. But 66 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: then they're for me an enormous qualitative drop between those 67 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 1: I mean six teams and then the next team or whatever, 68 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: Like I got Washington State after that, but I have 69 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 1: Washington State, cal Arizona, Arizona State, and Colorado. I have 70 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: those five teams very closely grouped in my power rankings, 71 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: and then an enormous drop and then Stanford way down 72 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 1: there at the dregs of the FBS. So that's sort 73 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 1: of how I see this conference, and that will sort 74 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: of inform like the way I see these win totals. 75 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 1: I shade that USC one a bit over. If you 76 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 1: get the nine and a half number, it's an other 77 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 1: one where if your book has ten, it's the only 78 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: option you got. That's where I'd be skittish about it. 79 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 1: But at nine and a half, I'm going over on it. 80 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 1: I just like this team. I think they're getting to 81 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 1: the ten wins. They do have the propensity though, to 82 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 1: like their app to potentially get picked off because of 83 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,719 Speaker 1: that crappy defense they're going to be in these shootouts 84 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 1: and you have some of those other elite teams in 85 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 1: this conference that can put points on the board. And 86 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 1: USC's defense was so bad last year, like you were 87 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 1: talking about, and yet they had one of the nation's 88 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 1: best defensive backs and Makai Blackman, he was literally, I 89 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 1: think you might have been PFF's top eighted defensive back. 90 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 1: And they benefited from some of the most turnovers in 91 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,160 Speaker 1: the entire nation. They were top three or whatever like 92 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:47,280 Speaker 1: in that and that led to them being number one 93 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:49,840 Speaker 1: in the nation in turnover margin. And you wonder if 94 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 1: losing one of the nation's best cornerbacks and then you know, 95 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 1: if you're not generating you know, top three turnovers again, 96 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:01,040 Speaker 1: like what that does, They're gonna have to be qualitatively 97 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:04,360 Speaker 1: better on defense to off set that if they fall 98 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: back at all on that, and you know, hopefully, hopefully 99 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: they will be in year two of Grinch and they 100 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: went out and they got some solid defenders mister Bear, 101 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: Alexander and a couple of guys like that. Hopefully, right, 102 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 1: the offense is going to be freaking nasty, but like 103 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 1: they're gonna have to be. 104 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:22,920 Speaker 2: Well, here's my concern is if Caleb Williams misses one 105 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 2: or two games, they're probably reaching that number. Bryce Young 106 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 2: had his injury situation and they had a roster they 107 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 2: were able to, you know, still overcome that. Usc doesn't 108 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 2: have the roster to overcome that. So if he gets 109 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 2: dinged up and he's not a big guy and he runs, 110 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 2: not as much as people think he runs, but he 111 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 2: does Runnie Scrambles does a lot of off platform awkward throwing. 112 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 2: You know, if he gets an elbow or a shoulder 113 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,039 Speaker 2: and has to miss one or two games, they're not 114 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 2: winning those football games because they don't have the roster 115 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 2: to do it. That's why I'm concerned. 116 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 1: So let's group these two teams that are both nine 117 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 1: and a half across the industry every book you look at, 118 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: and both them offensive juggernauts who have some defensive questions. 119 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 1: Oregon and Washington. Like I said, both those teams sitting 120 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: at nine and a half. Is there one of those 121 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:15,720 Speaker 1: two teams that you like more than the other? Mic 122 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 1: And where would you peg them as far as their 123 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:18,479 Speaker 1: win totals go? 124 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 2: It's tough. I mean Oregon. I like Oregon a little better, 125 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:25,840 Speaker 2: you know, I really do believe Bonix has turned the corner. 126 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 2: I think if he didn't have that ankle injury. At 127 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 2: the end of last season, they were rolling and he 128 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 2: was unstoppable. We did our thing every Saturday, and we 129 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 2: did our props, and every week it was like take 130 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:42,480 Speaker 2: Bonix over rushing because he was really dangerous as a 131 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 2: dual threat. Then after he got hurt, it was like 132 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:47,760 Speaker 2: take Bonix under rushing because he couldn't move. That was 133 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 2: a big problem. But Dan Lanning's is a defensive coach. 134 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 2: I think they're gonna get better on defense. We don't 135 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 2: know how good a game coach he is. Washington has talent, 136 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,480 Speaker 2: but they were so banged up in the second last 137 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 2: year that they weren't able to stop anybody. If they 138 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 2: have any sort of injury issue like that this year, 139 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 2: it's gonna be the same thing, and they're gonna have 140 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:10,679 Speaker 2: to outscore teams. I think Oregon can win some football 141 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 2: games without having no outscore, and I think Washington has 142 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 2: to outscore everybody. So it's tough. One of those teams 143 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 2: is going to go over that nine and a half 144 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 2: and the other one's going to go under. I'm picking 145 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 2: Oregon to go over in Washington to go under. 146 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, my projection sort of split the difference there. 147 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: I'm right around those numbers. I have Oregon at nine 148 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 1: point nine and I have Washington at nine point eight. 149 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 1: They're I mean, they're right next to each other in 150 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: my power ranks. Oregon at twelve, Washington at thirteen. I 151 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 1: really like both those teams. It's hard for me to 152 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 1: parse there at that nine and a half number. I 153 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: don't think there's a ton of value there. So unless, 154 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 1: like you know, you sitting at home, you feel like 155 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: super polish about one of those sides. For me, that's 156 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 1: a stay away at that number for both them, because 157 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 1: I feel like that's fair. And it's another thing, like 158 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 1: Mike you're talking about, like with the injury thing, like 159 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 1: what you're playing with there is you know, for instance, 160 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 1: I hate to even put this out in the universe, 161 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: but for instance, Michael Pennix is a guy who went 162 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 1: four straight season ending injuries at Indiana. He didn't last 163 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: year and he was freaking awesome last year. But if 164 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 1: he happened to go down with one this year, there's 165 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: no way they're hitting that right. But if he goes 166 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 1: through the season healthy or a decent shot, they could 167 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 1: get to ten right like so like but you're you know, 168 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 1: you're sort of playing with different stuff like that. For me, 169 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: there's way better value to have on the board. So 170 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 1: those are two passes for me. Speaking of health, this 171 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 1: is a professional segue Mike the utah Utes who are 172 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: at eight and a half, which is like, if you're 173 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:41,480 Speaker 1: looking at this one, it would be another case of 174 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: like every off season you look at Utah's number and 175 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:47,319 Speaker 1: it always feels too low, which this one absolutely would 176 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 1: be were it not for the statuses of Cam Rising, 177 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: who goes into the season with his status totally up 178 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 1: in the air. We have no idea if he's going 179 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:58,079 Speaker 1: to play in week one, if he's going to play 180 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: in September, we have no idea coming off to knee 181 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: injury which suffered in the Rose Ball. Brant Keithy, he 182 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 1: suffered his injury earlier in the season end of September 183 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 1: or early October, I forget, but that's what facilitated Dalton 184 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,679 Speaker 1: Kincaid getting all the targets then and just going thermonuclear 185 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 1: after that. Keithy's obviously his timeline is moved up, and 186 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: I will say at the end of July, Coach, there 187 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 1: said that Keithy seemed like he was on track to 188 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:31,959 Speaker 1: play in Week one, whereas he did not sound optimistic 189 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 1: that Rising was going to And then just in the 190 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:39,079 Speaker 1: past couple of days, the backup quarterback at Utah got injured. 191 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,559 Speaker 1: So I don't know what to think of this team. 192 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 1: We still have a couple of weeks until they kick 193 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 1: off the season, but that is a lot of questions 194 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 1: for a team that is eight and five. But if 195 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 1: it's totally healthy, I would feel confident about the over. Mike, 196 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 1: do you have a crystal ball and can you help 197 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 1: us out in me with the Utah Uts. 198 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 2: I'm taking I'm taking the over because I really well, 199 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 2: I believe in this roster. I believe in winning him. 200 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:03,319 Speaker 2: I had them beating Florida last season in the opener. 201 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 2: I was surprised they lost. You know, they really didn't 202 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 2: scheme well against Anthony Richardson, as we learned as Kentucky 203 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:13,599 Speaker 2: and a lot of other schools taught us. And I 204 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 2: think they were surprised, but they still should have won 205 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:19,440 Speaker 2: that football game. They were a better team. They're a 206 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 2: better team than Florida. This year, it's a revenge tour 207 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 2: sort of, you know, let's beat Florida this time. They're 208 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 2: on our home turf. Their defense is excellent. Their linebackers 209 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 2: are probably the best group in the Pac twelve. They're 210 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,360 Speaker 2: going to tackle, they're going to hit hard, They're going 211 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 2: to you know pressure. You know, Graham Mertz is back there. 212 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 2: It's not Anthony Richardson this time. If Rising is out, 213 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 2: it's probably only going to be for one or two games. 214 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,560 Speaker 2: I guess Keithie will be back. And they never have 215 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 2: trouble finding a tight end, at least over the last 216 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 2: many years. They just seem to pop somebody up, you know, 217 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 2: somebody gets hurt, somebody else pops up. And they've got 218 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 2: depth at tight end on that roster, and the tight 219 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:08,679 Speaker 2: ends extremely important, not only from a target situation. Dalton 220 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:10,600 Speaker 2: Kin Cada I think, had like eighty five catches in 221 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 2: one game, but also from a blocking perspective. Their offensive 222 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 2: line is strong. They have a very strong running game. 223 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 2: They fumble. If they would stop fumbling here and there, 224 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 2: it would certainly help. But I think from a physical aspect, 225 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 2: this team is nine to three and that's not the ceiling. 226 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 2: I think that's the floor. They could be a ten 227 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 2: and two football team and every year, I think they 228 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 2: could be a playoff contender, So I have them in 229 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:40,199 Speaker 2: that upper tier because they're more balanced. I mean, USC 230 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 2: has a crappy defense, you know, Oregon, you know they 231 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:50,560 Speaker 2: have talent and playmakers, but if bon Nicks can't do 232 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 2: what Bonnicks does, they're really struggling. You know, Washington, we 233 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 2: already talked about the defensive backs. I think seven of 234 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 2: them were hurt last year. But if Penix gets hurt, 235 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 2: they're in big trouble. This is a football team that 236 00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 2: if their quarterback is hurt, they will still find a 237 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 2: way to stay in games and win football games. So 238 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 2: I'm over yeah. 239 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:14,319 Speaker 1: I mean, like if I had to, that's probably the 240 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 1: way I'd shade it. I mean, I knocked him down 241 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 1: my power rankings because of the health concerns, But if 242 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:23,079 Speaker 1: I took that off, like I'm I'm at nine right now, 243 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 1: I'd be at nine and a half. If I took 244 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 1: that modulation off. This is a playoff contender without that stuff. 245 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 1: And who knows, And like you said, they're not as 246 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 1: dependent on like I mean, Keithy, he's all Last year, 247 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 1: I mean Keithy went down, it didn't really matter. And 248 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: we've seen even like the guys behind Kinkaid. They figure 249 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: prominently into a couple of those games, and they played 250 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: really well. The Rising one is the one that concerns 251 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 1: me a little bit more, especially when that other kid 252 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: I just went down rows or whatever. We just have 253 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 1: to see about that, like how that goes. But the 254 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 1: talent on this team is really good. They have the 255 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 1: conference's best defense, and you mentioned their offensive line is 256 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 1: really good. That the left tackle is one of the 257 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:11,560 Speaker 1: best returning offensive linemen in the conference. They have one 258 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 1: of the conference's best offensive lines. And by the way, 259 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:16,960 Speaker 1: they go three deep in the backfield at running back, 260 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: and their running backs are all sick. They'd start at 261 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 1: most the power fives in the country, like all three 262 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 1: of them. So I mean, like, yeah, awesome, yeah everywhere else, right, 263 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:27,319 Speaker 1: And this. 264 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:29,199 Speaker 2: Is the only team at the top tier of the 265 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 2: Pac twelve that's not quarterback dependent. Cam Rising is better 266 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 2: than the other options, but they're not quarterback dependent. Caleb 267 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 2: Williams gets hurt, Ennix gets hurt, Knicks gets hurt. All 268 00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 2: those teams are seven and five, eight and four football 269 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 2: teams at best. This is not that team. So I 270 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:47,679 Speaker 2: like them a lot better than most people that eight 271 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:49,680 Speaker 2: and a half number is low because of what we're 272 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 2: talking about here, because there's the potential of losing one 273 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:57,320 Speaker 2: of their first two games, maybe both, but unlikely. Hammer 274 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:58,960 Speaker 2: the over for me. I like this best. 275 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, And as we know, Utah is the usc antidote, 276 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 1: so I mean they got that going for them too, Mike, 277 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 1: moving on to a couple other teams in this conference 278 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:11,560 Speaker 1: that have eight and a half hanging on them in Vegas, 279 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 1: Oregon State and Ucla both eight and a half across 280 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 1: the market. Obviously, very different types of teams have been built, 281 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 1: different different identities and whatnot. What do you think about 282 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 1: about the Beavers and the Bruins with those eight and 283 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: a half numbers. 284 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 2: I'm going under on both. Oregon State at a tremendous 285 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 2: season last year. Smith is a very very good coach. 286 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 2: They're a tough football team. You and I remember talking 287 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 2: about that Saturday game against you know, the Bowl Yamians Florida, 288 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 2: and how I was stealing money. It was just so 289 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 2: easy to predict that they were gonna thump Florida. You know, 290 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 2: it's it's a similar football team. It's not like they 291 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 2: lost a ton of talent to the portal it's not 292 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 2: like they lost a ton of talent in the NFL. 293 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 2: But for me to bet Oregon State as a football program, 294 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 2: to know win nine games again, it's just I can't 295 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 2: do it. I would say pass on eight and a half. 296 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 2: But if you had to bet it, you know, un 297 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 2: to head take it under UCLA. I worry a little 298 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 2: bit about the losses. You know, dtr wasn't great, but 299 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 2: he was experienced. I mean he played there for fifty 300 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 2: eight years. It seemed Charbonneau was, you know, he was 301 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 2: a big part of that offense. I don't know, are 302 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 2: they going to start Dante Moore as a true freshman? 303 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 2: I mean, if you're if you're giving me Dante morre 304 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 2: is a true freshman and you're telling me that number, 305 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 2: I'm taking under just because I don't know. I know 306 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 2: he's good in high school, but I don't know if 307 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 2: he's going to translate that. I mean, how many how 308 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 2: many Trevor Lawrences are there? You know, true freshmen that 309 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 2: are going to lead you to you know, near undefeated 310 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 2: seasons in national play. It's just not out there. So 311 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:53,200 Speaker 2: there's question marks. If I had to choose one to 312 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 2: go over and be UCLA, though, I think Oregon State's 313 00:15:55,480 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 2: going to go under. I wouldn't really touch UCLA, but 314 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 2: I'm certainly not betting the. 315 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: Over both of these. I'd shade over. I think both 316 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 1: these teams go nine to three this year. Oregon State 317 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: schedule well, actually both these teams is the reason why 318 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 1: both their schedules are super easy with like they both 319 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 1: caught it right. Oregon State moving into that facility and 320 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: like I said, they catch that the schedule right. Last 321 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 1: year they go eleven and two against the spread. They 322 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 1: have the double digit win season despite having quarterbacks who 323 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 1: combine to have a sixteen to thirteen td I and 324 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 1: T rate. I'm no fan of Dju, but at least 325 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 1: he can fling the ball down the field and he 326 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 1: can run around. You can at least scheme in offense 327 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 1: for him. And Oregon State has a good offensive line 328 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 1: and they can run the ball real well with Martinez, 329 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 1: so they're for sure. Dju is an upgrade over two 330 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:49,400 Speaker 1: guys that can't run and out of sixteen to thirteen 331 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 1: td I and T, and they can play defense as well. 332 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 1: They did lose a couple guys Rajon Right and Alex Austin. 333 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: We're solid, like outside press man guys, and then they 334 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 1: lost States in the portal. Tell you that hurts, but 335 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 1: their I think their defense takes a small step back, 336 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 1: but I think their offense takes a bit of a 337 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:11,400 Speaker 1: step forward. I think those two things offset each other qualitatively. 338 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:14,160 Speaker 1: They're around the same place. They're facing this easy schedule. 339 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 1: I think they get to nine wins and then the 340 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:19,440 Speaker 1: UCLA one might surprise some people out there because the 341 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,199 Speaker 1: best win total that during tops of Robinson ever got 342 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 1: to in the regular season was nine wins and now 343 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 1: he leaves and I'm saying they're gonna get to nine wins. 344 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 1: But their schedule is just so frigging easy, so like 345 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 1: and basically the way that I see it is this 346 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 1: defense that they have is going to be better than 347 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 1: any of the DTR era defenses. So you have that 348 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:42,399 Speaker 1: going for you. You have a really strong offensive line. 349 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,440 Speaker 1: They they got the receiving core really good. You bring 350 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:48,640 Speaker 1: in sturd Event and different stuff like that, and then 351 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 1: they they fix the running back thing between Harden's coming back. 352 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 1: That kid was really good per snap, and then you 353 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 1: brought in Carson Steele, who was top five in the 354 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 1: nation last. 355 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 2: Ever. I'm sure Tim Riggins I hear he's as you hear, 356 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 2: he's running third string. 357 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 1: Carson Steele, Yeah, that would be good for my unders 358 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 1: on price picks they opened, mister Carson, see a little 359 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 1: bit high. I was more going under this opposition that 360 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 1: Harden would be the one A of a platoon there, 361 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,520 Speaker 1: but I would actually love if he was running third string. 362 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:24,159 Speaker 2: And to your life, I mean, it's another year in 363 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 2: Chip Kelly's system. That's another year of players being like 364 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 2: you know, I know it's been a while since Ship 365 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 2: Kelly's been at UCLA, but his system takes a little 366 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:35,159 Speaker 2: bit of time to implement. Personnel takes a little bit 367 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 2: of time to build up. You know. It's one of 368 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:40,680 Speaker 2: those things where he inherited a football team that wasn't 369 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 2: his identity at all. Now you know, years later, he's 370 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 2: got his guys for sure. I see where you're coming from. 371 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:51,640 Speaker 2: And the scheduler bulls are so easy that Oregon State. 372 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 2: It's tricky for me. They are going they're going to 373 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:57,080 Speaker 2: play angry like we're left behind or are they just 374 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:58,879 Speaker 2: going to be like after a couple of losses, like 375 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 2: you know, what do we do? We've got no home 376 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 2: or Mountain Westerns. That one's intriguing to me. But I 377 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:07,160 Speaker 2: see where you're going with UCLA. 378 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, well I think I think Oregon State is going 379 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:13,159 Speaker 1: to be surly, but it will be interesting. And speaking 380 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,679 Speaker 1: of another team that could be surly or could you know, 381 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: could go the other way, the other one that was 382 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:21,639 Speaker 1: left behind, Washington State. They're win total. This is another 383 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:24,120 Speaker 1: one where it depends on where you look, either six 384 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 1: or six and a half depending on your book. I 385 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,679 Speaker 1: see Washington State a little bit different than some other people. 386 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:32,399 Speaker 1: Sall be curious how you see them. They lost some 387 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,679 Speaker 1: guys over the off season, both to the portal end 388 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 1: of the NFL obviously the program facing an uncertain future. 389 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 1: What do you think about Washington State? Mic? And with 390 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:42,920 Speaker 1: that six six and a half win total. 391 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 2: Not really I mean six. I don't like six and 392 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,960 Speaker 2: a half. I'm not that high on this football team. 393 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:55,640 Speaker 2: I'm not that high on Ward. I'm not that high 394 00:19:55,640 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 2: on you know, anything about them. I'm not saying they're 395 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 2: you know, Arizona Arizona State level or worse than that, 396 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,880 Speaker 2: Stanford and Colorado level. But I just don't I don't 397 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 2: really like this football team. I'm not really sold on 398 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 2: you know, cam Ward as their leader. And a guy 399 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,200 Speaker 2: that's going to make a big difference in a quarterback 400 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 2: heavy conference. He's below, you know, the middle of the 401 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:25,000 Speaker 2: pack for me. So I would say, if six is 402 00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:28,359 Speaker 2: your number, you're going to probably push six and a half. 403 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,639 Speaker 2: I wouldn't touch, but I would lean under if I 404 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 2: had to bet. 405 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 1: At Yeah, I'm going under on Wazoo. They lost so much, 406 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,399 Speaker 1: you know, both to the NFL, like Dayon Henley, you know, 407 00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 1: went to the NFL. He lost a couple of guys 408 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:42,399 Speaker 1: like that. But then they also got picked off in 409 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 1: the portal and and that's what really hurt. They lost 410 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 1: Francisco Myoga to Miami. They lost John Stribbling to Oklahoma State, 411 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 1: Donovanali to Cincinnati, Trevon Brown to Arizona State, they lost 412 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 1: left tackle the USC. So they lost all these different 413 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,440 Speaker 1: guys their defense against. You know, that was one of 414 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 1: the salty things that their team last year. They also 415 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,359 Speaker 1: lost their defensive coordinator. Well they also lost their offensive coordinator, 416 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,639 Speaker 1: but their defensive coordinator gone now too, So you have 417 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 1: to replace all this different stuff and then you know 418 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:15,560 Speaker 1: the program uncertainty as well. They didn't get close to 419 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:17,600 Speaker 1: the amount of value out of the portal that they 420 00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:19,840 Speaker 1: lost to the Portal, so I think their defense is 421 00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 1: going to greatly regress, and then the offense, you're basically 422 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 1: putting all this pressure now on cam Ward. I think 423 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,800 Speaker 1: cam Ward is super duper overrated. I've been saying this 424 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:31,639 Speaker 1: now for the last year and a half or whatever. 425 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 1: There's a whole bunch of people that were super excited 426 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 1: about cam Ward when he's coming out of the FCS, 427 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:37,399 Speaker 1: And I think a lot of it had to do 428 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 1: with it was a year after Zapi had come out 429 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 1: and they'd done, you know, Western Kentucky had just done 430 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,160 Speaker 1: the thing of oh let's grab ZAPPI, let's grab eight 431 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 1: guys from that offense, let's grab the offensive court, let's 432 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,160 Speaker 1: hire everybody from Houston Baptist. And then the next year 433 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 1: was he was like, oh, let's do the same thing. 434 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,000 Speaker 1: And so I think a lot of people are like, oh, 435 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,399 Speaker 1: you know, cam Ward's going to be the next draft 436 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,360 Speaker 1: pack and I think, you know, he threw for over 437 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:00,359 Speaker 1: three thousand yards, and so I think some some people 438 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: just kept going along with that idea of like, oh, 439 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 1: cam Ward's an NFL quarter He's not an NFL quarterback. 440 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 1: He's stunk last year. Like I'm sorry. He did throw 441 00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 1: for over three thousand yards, but he was not gut. 442 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 1: It was a lot of close to the line manufactured touches. 443 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 1: He made a lot of mistakes though with that stuff, 444 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 1: even though it was like layup throws for him, like 445 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:23,760 Speaker 1: he did not sense pressure well, even though he was 446 00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 1: allowed to get the ball out of his hands really 447 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 1: quick and he put the ball up for grabs a lot, 448 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 1: even though they did not trust him to throw down 449 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,200 Speaker 1: the field. I do not trust cam Ward to make 450 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 1: a leap up in his game that is going to 451 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 1: require for Wazu to get comfortably over this number. I 452 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 1: think Wazu is absolutely in jeopardy of missing a Bowl game. 453 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 1: Wouldn't surprise me at all if they were a five 454 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: and seven team, wouldn't surprise me at all. There a 455 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,680 Speaker 1: four and eight team, So I'm absolutely going under on them. 456 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,400 Speaker 1: Speaking of a couple other under teams. Now we're really 457 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:55,120 Speaker 1: dropping to the bottom of the barrel, and then we'll 458 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 1: get to the funnest team at the bottom of the 459 00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 1: barrel in this conference. But first, let Mike, let's talk 460 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:02,200 Speaker 1: about cal who's five or five and a half depending 461 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:05,120 Speaker 1: on where you look in the market, and Arizona States, 462 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 1: who is four and a half universally across the market. 463 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 1: Do you have any thoughts on those two teams. 464 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:16,919 Speaker 2: I'd say under on both Arizona State. You know, Drew Pine, 465 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,399 Speaker 2: I don't think is the solution. I think jayde Rashot 466 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 2: is going to play a lot there as a true freshman. 467 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 2: You know, Kenny Dillingham is a good offensive mind, but 468 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 2: he inherited a team that's not very good. He's got 469 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 2: fifty will not fifty. He's got forty plus portal guys. 470 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 2: It's a brand new roster. I mean, ever we talked 471 00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:37,240 Speaker 2: about for haul. Yeah, yeah, so, I mean it's gonna 472 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 2: be a rough year for them. You know, four and 473 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,119 Speaker 2: eight would be a great year. But I'm still saying 474 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,119 Speaker 2: under and then Cal. I just don't think they have, 475 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 2: you know, an identity. They've got some solid players defensively. 476 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,680 Speaker 2: I think he's a solid coach, But I don't see 477 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 2: anything that scares me on the outside. I don't see 478 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:56,920 Speaker 2: a running game that scares me. You certainly don't see 479 00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,520 Speaker 2: quarterback play that scares me. Nothing to me. He says 480 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:02,879 Speaker 2: that that's going to be a five and seven football team, 481 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,359 Speaker 2: and five is under. So I think they're closer to 482 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,280 Speaker 2: four and eight, and I would take the under. If 483 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:09,080 Speaker 2: it's five and a half. 484 00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,680 Speaker 1: I'm under both those teams too. Cal My System's four 485 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 1: point two wins, you know, then they were five or 486 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 1: five and a half depending on your book. Definitely shade 487 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,280 Speaker 1: them under. Really sad what's happening in justin Wilcox there. 488 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 1: They actually had the makings of a really fun offense. 489 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 1: If Plumber had come back, if Sturdivan had come back, 490 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,119 Speaker 1: if up Byron Cardwell, who they got out of the 491 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,239 Speaker 1: portal hadn't gotten injured, just recently different stuff like that. 492 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 1: But they got picked off in the portal. Then Cardwell 493 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,879 Speaker 1: gets injured. I don't know what's going to go on 494 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 1: with there. They need to get lucky that snake's on 495 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,800 Speaker 1: a plane, Sam Jackson the TCU transfer that he's good 496 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,119 Speaker 1: right right out of the box, or that could be 497 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,320 Speaker 1: a rough year on offense for them. I gotta go 498 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,240 Speaker 1: under on that one. And then Arizona State. I totally 499 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 1: agree with you, Mike, Drew Pine is not the answer. Borgay? 500 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,439 Speaker 1: Is that how you pronounce that kid's name, Trenton Borgay. 501 00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,639 Speaker 1: He's definitely not the answer. We've seen plenty of that 502 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: kid last year, those two guys combined couldn't throw the 503 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 1: ball beyond forty yards if you combine their longest throw 504 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 1: is they got to get Rashada to just put Rashada in. 505 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 1: Let's start this thing right away. And I think Dillingham 506 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 1: that's gonna be what he wants. That's his prerogative anyway, 507 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,919 Speaker 1: right like, is to start building this thing out. So 508 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,479 Speaker 1: I think that's the way that you're gonna see that 509 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,040 Speaker 1: thing go. I totally agree with you. That's why I 510 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,880 Speaker 1: would shade that thing under. Anyway, My system's got three 511 00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,760 Speaker 1: point nine wins on them, like, it's not a super 512 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:34,520 Speaker 1: talented roster anyway. So and they the schedules not the 513 00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:35,240 Speaker 1: easiest either. 514 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 2: There. 515 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 1: So, going from the team that had the second most 516 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 1: transfer portal acquisitions in history to the most by margin, 517 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:48,640 Speaker 1: the Colorado Buffalo is a team of endless, endless, endless intrigue, Mike, 518 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 1: a team set at three and a half wins in 519 00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 1: Las Vegas. You've seen so many takes on this team 520 00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 1: over the offseason. Some people being like, you know, this 521 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,919 Speaker 1: is brilliant and Dion's, you know, a gift to the sport. 522 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 1: Other people think of Dion's taking down college football, and 523 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,560 Speaker 1: what is he doing trying to you know, NFL Eyes, 524 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 1: the Colorado Buffalos, everything like that. What do you think 525 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 1: about what he's doing at Colorado? And then what do 526 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:15,639 Speaker 1: you think about the three and a half win total 527 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,159 Speaker 1: that's been said on the Buffalo is for this coming season. 528 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,040 Speaker 2: Well, he's a miraculous higher. He's the best hire in 529 00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,439 Speaker 2: college football history from a return on investment standpoint. He 530 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:28,679 Speaker 2: hasn't coached one game. They've been on national television for 531 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 2: their spring game, Yeah, on ESPN, and nobody cared about 532 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 2: this team. They were one and eleven last year. They're 533 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 2: in the news every day. Everybody's talking about him. What 534 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,280 Speaker 2: he's done in the portal is cutthroat. It's probably not 535 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:46,680 Speaker 2: of the highest character, but you know, Dion's going to 536 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,960 Speaker 2: do what Dion does. The administrator is going to back 537 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 2: what he does. And now they're moving to the Big 538 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 2: twelve and saving their own lives. And they were actually 539 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:58,160 Speaker 2: the first team a target of the Big twelve because 540 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 2: of Dion as opposed to a throw in with Arizona 541 00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,639 Speaker 2: Arizona State Utah before he was hired. So it's a 542 00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:08,679 Speaker 2: genius higher. He's not ruining college football. He's doing what 543 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 2: he needs to do. That being said, he's inheriting a 544 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,720 Speaker 2: horrible roster. You know, he's perge most of them. He's 545 00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:19,679 Speaker 2: bringing in fifty plus hired guns, so to speak. You know, 546 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,119 Speaker 2: guys that are leaving their teams, whether they were successful 547 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 2: or not successful, highly rated kids, but the schedule doesn't 548 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,800 Speaker 2: play out at all for them to win four football games. 549 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,920 Speaker 2: I dare you to find four. You might not find 550 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 2: three if you look. This is a two and ten, 551 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:43,359 Speaker 2: three and nine football team this season. Shadhar Sanders is 552 00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:49,639 Speaker 2: the most overrated quarterback in college football. He's not ready 553 00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:51,480 Speaker 2: for this level and he doesn't have the weapons to 554 00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 2: be ready for this level. There are people who out 555 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,240 Speaker 2: there saying that he's a potential, you know, leave early 556 00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:01,600 Speaker 2: NFL guy, you know, first second round. None of that's true. 557 00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,359 Speaker 2: People don't know what to think of this team. But 558 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,159 Speaker 2: when you look at the record, I mean, they're twenty 559 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:11,359 Speaker 2: one point underdogs to TCU, and what Vegas is going 560 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,600 Speaker 2: to do is they're going to make those lines low 561 00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:17,920 Speaker 2: and tantalize you. I would bet my mortgage on TCU 562 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:22,200 Speaker 2: to cover that and every team after that. The lines 563 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:26,119 Speaker 2: will correct themselves in Vegas after the first few games. 564 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:31,240 Speaker 2: But you know, outside of Colorado State and including some 565 00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,119 Speaker 2: other teams that are really bad in the Pac twelve, 566 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,639 Speaker 2: where is a potential guaranteed to win. So it's under 567 00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:37,840 Speaker 2: man you. 568 00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:39,960 Speaker 1: You were really spitting there, and I was even going 569 00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 1: to put my hand up and start doing the preach 570 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:47,280 Speaker 1: thing until you started shooting strays at Shadeer Sanders. Oh god, Oh, 571 00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,400 Speaker 1: we couldn't disagree stronger about Shadear. We're gonna have to. 572 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,920 Speaker 2: See this, We're gonna find out, We're gonna file out. 573 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:57,000 Speaker 2: We might have to do here, we will. Here's the 574 00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 2: thing I was thinking about it with cam wardon. Everybody 575 00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:05,280 Speaker 2: wants to find that guy, you know in the NFL 576 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:08,240 Speaker 2: that is a quarterback that isn't highly rated. They want 577 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 2: to be the smart one. Everybody wants to find that 578 00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:16,640 Speaker 2: FCS quarterback to going up to Power five, and they 579 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:18,440 Speaker 2: want to be the smart guy. That's why people like 580 00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 2: cam Ward. It's why people hung in on cam Ward. 581 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,680 Speaker 2: And this is what it's happening with Seger Sanders. He's 582 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 2: FCS to Power five. It's going to be a real 583 00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 2: awakening for him. Not just because he's not good. I'm 584 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:36,600 Speaker 2: not saying he stinks he has no weapons. You could 585 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,200 Speaker 2: throw Travis Hunter out there all you want. That's great. 586 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 2: He's a super stuper great cornerback, wide receiver at the 587 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 2: high school level. You know, he had his moments at 588 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:50,560 Speaker 2: the FCS level. Different ballgame and it's not the SEC. 589 00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:54,360 Speaker 2: I get it. But there's some pretty darn good football players, 590 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:58,080 Speaker 2: especially defensive backs in the Pac twelve this year for sure, 591 00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,720 Speaker 2: and so they're not going to be able to game separation. 592 00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,200 Speaker 2: They're not gonna be able to get open for them. 593 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:04,320 Speaker 2: They're gonna dumb down the playbook. They're gonna try to 594 00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,440 Speaker 2: do a lot of quick throws because the offensive line 595 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:08,320 Speaker 2: is gonna stink, and they're gonna try to get the 596 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:11,160 Speaker 2: ball out of his hands passed, but it's just not 597 00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,960 Speaker 2: gonna work. So we definitely disagree on shir Sanders. 598 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, and speaking to the schedule, so that the non 599 00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,280 Speaker 1: con like you're I mean, no favors there. You open 600 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:25,960 Speaker 1: on the road against TCUH. My system has adjusted underdog 601 00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,720 Speaker 1: of sixteen point three for Colorado and that one. Then 602 00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,960 Speaker 1: you're home against Matt Rules Nebraska. At least they're gonna 603 00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:33,880 Speaker 1: have a shot to win that. But I have Colorado 604 00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:36,200 Speaker 1: as a five point underdog in that one. Then you're 605 00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:40,000 Speaker 1: home against Colorado State, which that's one of your best 606 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:42,600 Speaker 1: shots to win a game. Colorado State, though, I will say, 607 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:44,600 Speaker 1: is going to be way better this year than they 608 00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 1: were the year before. Moving into year two of that system, 609 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,760 Speaker 1: last year was an aberration. You had to you know, 610 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 1: like all the guys were new and then they had 611 00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 1: all kinds of offensive line issues. 612 00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 2: Dazzio is not a good coach. 613 00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 1: Dazzio is the worst cultion. Do you know that? Yea, 614 00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:05,480 Speaker 1: And yeah he's not mister congeniality either, mister Steve Dazio. 615 00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:09,720 Speaker 1: But yeh, So I have color Out eleven point seven 616 00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,960 Speaker 1: point adjusted favorite in that one, but like I said, 617 00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:15,400 Speaker 1: one of two games where I have them as an 618 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 1: adjusted favorite, or technically three, But the other ones in 619 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:22,040 Speaker 1: Week seven at home again Stanford twelve point adjusted favorite, 620 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 1: and then the other one I was saying technically because 621 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,880 Speaker 1: they host Arizona Week eleven, I have Colorado as an 622 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 1: adjusted one point favorite. Those are the only three on 623 00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:35,959 Speaker 1: the entire schedule. The other games Oregon USC at, Arizona State, UCLA, 624 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:41,680 Speaker 1: Oregon State, Washington State, Utah. That is a frigging brutal schedule. 625 00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:46,400 Speaker 1: Only one G five team, no FCS teams. You have 626 00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,920 Speaker 1: an unprecedented roster turnover a head coach. It's never a 627 00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:53,640 Speaker 1: coach in the Power five before or in the FBS before. 628 00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,320 Speaker 1: This could be tough. This is a tough assignment for 629 00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:57,880 Speaker 1: all college I. 630 00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,400 Speaker 2: Don't know each other. They haven't played. I mean, Sanders 631 00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,320 Speaker 2: said after this. I think it was after. It might 632 00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:06,080 Speaker 2: have been a recent practice, or it might have been earlier. 633 00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 2: He's like, we got a lot of guys. I can't 634 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:11,680 Speaker 2: tell you their names, but we got a lot of guys. Yeah, 635 00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,120 Speaker 2: because you don't know their names. You know Travis Hunter 636 00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 2: because he was your teammate. You don't know any of 637 00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:21,440 Speaker 2: these guys. The defense, they're meeting each other in the 638 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 2: defensive huddle, they're shaking hands. There's no continuity, there's no cohesion. 639 00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:29,720 Speaker 2: This is just a bunch of strangers coming together as 640 00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:32,200 Speaker 2: an all star squad. And that's great. You can do 641 00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,800 Speaker 2: that at IMG in high school, you can do that 642 00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:38,239 Speaker 2: at Jackson State in FCS. You can't do that at 643 00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,000 Speaker 2: the Power FLIV level. So that's a real big concern 644 00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:42,960 Speaker 2: that both of us have about this team. 645 00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:44,880 Speaker 1: Mike, their name is Gucci. 646 00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:50,160 Speaker 2: Louis Oh Louis. I forgot Louis Vauton. Man, I know 647 00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:53,840 Speaker 2: you don't know that stuff. I do because I have 648 00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:56,480 Speaker 2: a wife and I try to keep her away from 649 00:32:56,480 --> 00:33:00,520 Speaker 2: that garbage. But yeah, Louis Vauton, it's expensive, and guess what, 650 00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:05,959 Speaker 2: it's overrated and it's not worth the Money's worth the money. 651 00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 2: Dion has already brought that program potentially over the life 652 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,160 Speaker 2: of his contract, about four hundred million dollars, the guys, 653 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,520 Speaker 2: the best hire in the history of college football. And 654 00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:17,120 Speaker 2: he's going to go too, and ten or three and 655 00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:18,080 Speaker 2: nine in. 656 00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,880 Speaker 1: Year one and then we'll see. But guys, that's all 657 00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 1: the time that we have for today, and that's going 658 00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:25,600 Speaker 1: to put a rap on our preseason series. Make sure 659 00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,280 Speaker 1: to circle your calendars for August twenty six, which is 660 00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,280 Speaker 1: only eleven days away from when we're recording today. I 661 00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 1: can't believe we're that close. Saturday, August twenty six, our 662 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,440 Speaker 1: very first live show of the year. Mike, you can 663 00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,680 Speaker 1: see this grin on my face. I can't wait when 664 00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 1: Mike and I start doing our live shows on Saturdays, 665 00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:46,440 Speaker 1: bringing you, guys through the entire slate of college football games, 666 00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:49,440 Speaker 1: giving you our picks for all the day's games, make 667 00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,480 Speaker 1: sure you come and check us out on our first 668 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:53,920 Speaker 1: episode what we'll be doing our Maiden voyage on August 669 00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:57,040 Speaker 1: twenty six, And if you missed any of our previous episodes, 670 00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,760 Speaker 1: the Big ten Notre Dame episode or the sec Big 671 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,160 Speaker 1: twelve episode, you can check those previews out on YouTube 672 00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,479 Speaker 1: or on the podcast feed. So you check out all 673 00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 1: that stuff, But until then, for Mike Farrell on Thorne 674 00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,320 Speaker 1: istram Let's catch cash from tickets