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Speaker 1: Hoops Tonight, presented by FanDuel here at the volume. Happy Thursday, everybody.
Speaker 1: I hope all of you guys are having a great
Speaker 1: week so far. I am super excited for today's show.
Speaker 1: We're having my guy Carson back on to talk about
Speaker 1: best bets and NBA futures on FanDuel, as well as
Speaker 1: the annual GM survey, which is one of my favorite
Speaker 1: things to see each year. It'll be really nice way
Speaker 1: to measure the way that we talked about the game
Speaker 1: on this show versus the way that the gms around
Speaker 1: the league view basketball in these days. Um, before we
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Speaker 1: your podcasts. Under Hoops Tonight. And on that note, let's
Speaker 1: bring Carson in. How's it going man? It is great, Jason.
Speaker 1: How are you. I'm doing well. It's good to see you, buddy.
Speaker 1: Good to see you too well. As you said, we're
Speaker 1: gonna start with the betting portion here, get some of
Speaker 1: your favorite picks ahead of the NBA season. All these
Speaker 1: odds are provided by FanDuel and as of the time.
Speaker 1: We're recording this on October five, are accurate, so things
Speaker 1: may change a bit, but correct for now. So we'll
Speaker 1: start with the biggest one. Jason, you look at all
Speaker 1: the odds for these teams in the preseason, what is
Speaker 1: your favorite title bet right now? Oh Man, that's a
Speaker 1: good question because it's there's there's a difference between what
Speaker 1: is the team that I actually they believe is going
Speaker 1: to win the title and then betting opportunities right I
Speaker 1: thought it was really interesting that the Warriors had the
Speaker 1: third best odds at plus seven hundred. That feels like
Speaker 1: a pretty safe bet to me in terms of the
Speaker 1: odds versus potential reward. I think that the Warriors have
Speaker 1: the best combination of talent basketball i Q, competent coaching
Speaker 1: and upper management experience and continuity in the league. There
Speaker 1: are three other teams that have similar amounts of talent,
Speaker 1: maybe even four if you consider teams like the Philadelphia
Speaker 1: seventy sixers, but they all have big question marks somewhere
Speaker 1: on the roster. The Warriors are a team without question marks.
Speaker 1: So if you can get a team like that plus
Speaker 1: seven hundred, knowing that they've been there, done that, that
Speaker 1: they know how to handle adversity along the way. They
Speaker 1: weathered injuries last year, a lot more injuries than people
Speaker 1: are willing to give them credit for. I like them
Speaker 1: at plus seven hundred. A couple other bets that I like,
Speaker 1: though as long shot bets, as like interesting opportunities. As
Speaker 1: far as odds go, you get the Sixers at plus
Speaker 1: sixteen hundred. I think they have one of the most
Speaker 1: talented rosters in the league. I had them as the
Speaker 1: fifth most likely team to win the title in my
Speaker 1: preseason power rankings. My James Harden agenda is in full force,
Speaker 1: with him allegedly being in much better shape coming into
Speaker 1: the season. I'm excited to see him play in some
Speaker 1: preseason action. I just have a big believer in them
Speaker 1: as as a as a pretty decent puncher's chance to
Speaker 1: win the title. So to get them at plus sixteen hundred,
Speaker 1: and then last but not least, Dallas at plus hundred.
Speaker 1: Luca plus a good defense, and if their role players
Speaker 1: stay hot and shoot the way they did in the
Speaker 1: first two rounds of the playoffs, they can beat anybody.
Speaker 1: And they demonstrated that that They demonstrated that last year.
Speaker 1: So those are my three favorites. Right now, I think
Speaker 1: those are all really good value plays. Like you said,
Speaker 1: it's interesting, I mean the Brooklyn nets in the Golden
Speaker 1: State Warriors of the same odds to win the title
Speaker 1: right now after completely polar opposites season last year. The
Speaker 1: only other one I might consider sprinkling in their Nuggets
Speaker 1: plus two thousands, so twenty two one. I don't think
Speaker 1: they're going to be good enough defensively to win it,
Speaker 1: but I think they could have the best offense in league,
Speaker 1: and that will give you a puncher's chance. But I
Speaker 1: really like all those choices. Who is your favorite m
Speaker 1: v P bet for this season? Jason? Okay, So m
Speaker 1: VP is quickly becoming my least favorite award that they
Speaker 1: give out every year, just because it's becomes it's become
Speaker 1: so much more of like, uh weird, like hipster movement
Speaker 1: than it is about the best basketball player. And I know,
Speaker 1: I know you, I feel like that's just straight blasphemy
Speaker 1: to you. Carson is such a huge fan, but but
Speaker 1: it's just it's just one of those things where I
Speaker 1: feel like sometimes this I feel like this is the
Speaker 1: award that NBA media overthinks the most, and so in
Speaker 1: this particular season, I really like Janice at plus seven hundred.
Speaker 1: He's still a complete machine on both ends of the
Speaker 1: floor in the regular season. He plays hard every single night.
Speaker 1: I think he's the best defensive player in basketball. He's
Speaker 1: gonna sleepwalk to thirty point some twelve rebounds, right, And
Speaker 1: so if the Bucks have a bounce back season with
Speaker 1: better health and brook Lopez is available like he wasn't
Speaker 1: last year for the for the most part, they end
Speaker 1: up in the high fifties or low sixties with wins,
Speaker 1: Jana sustaining right there, and that voter fatigue from him
Speaker 1: winning two years in a row I think has gone
Speaker 1: now after everything that's gone on with Yokich, and I
Speaker 1: think in general, people are forgetting just how much better
Speaker 1: he is than just about everybody in the entire league.
Speaker 1: This feels like kind of like a reminder type of
Speaker 1: season from him. So I like him at plus seven hundred.
Speaker 1: My favorite long shot bets Tatum at plus. We're gonna
Speaker 1: talk about this later when we talk over over unders,
Speaker 1: but I really think the Celtics are gonna win a
Speaker 1: lot of games this year. And here's the thing. Let's
Speaker 1: say the Celtics are the one seed and they've won
Speaker 1: sixty two, sixty three games or sixty games or something
Speaker 1: like that, and Tatum is their leading score or close,
Speaker 1: and he makes an All defense team and he's obviously
Speaker 1: the best player on this best team in the Eastern Conference.
Speaker 1: That's just kind of like a xbook m v P case.
Speaker 1: So it's just an interesting long shot bet at plus
Speaker 1: and then Steph the exact same type of case, like
Speaker 1: proven playoff history that legitimizes everything he does in the
Speaker 1: regular season. The Western Conference is it's got a lot
Speaker 1: of teams with question marks, and the Warriors are one
Speaker 1: of the few teams that don't have question marks. So
Speaker 1: if they end up as the one seed and they
Speaker 1: win in the high fifties, low sixties, Steph is far
Speaker 1: and away the best player on the team. It's just
Speaker 1: a textbook m v PK. So him being down at
Speaker 1: plus fift hundred feels like a really interesting opportunity to me.
Speaker 1: I like all those choices that you highlighted. Their Luca
Speaker 1: is the favorite entering the season, I believe for the
Speaker 1: second straight year. What's your reaction to that. I just
Speaker 1: and I know and this your Yokich guy had to
Speaker 1: ruin this again last year? Uh, the same goes for
Speaker 1: Russell Westbrook in two thousand and seventeen. But like my
Speaker 1: gut just says, the Mavericks just won't win enough games,
Speaker 1: like if they like if I told you at everything
Speaker 1: went really well for the Mavericks this year, where do
Speaker 1: you think they would end up in the standings? Maybe third?
Speaker 1: Maybe if they just went really well, probably fourth or fifth.
Speaker 1: And if I told you the Mavericks were going to
Speaker 1: be in the playing tournament, you wouldn't be the least
Speaker 1: bit surprised. They did lose some ball handling this summer
Speaker 1: as well with Jalen Brunson. So I just I'd like
Speaker 1: to say that they don't have the capability of racking
Speaker 1: up enough wins for Luca to get that award. But
Speaker 1: then again, we keep having that be overruled by once
Speaker 1: again hipster NBA media and their love of of of
Speaker 1: getting behind the movement of regular season players that put
Speaker 1: up big numbers for teams that are only okay, Sorry, Carson,
Speaker 1: I'll take no more uh sideswipes at you and Yokich
Speaker 1: in the show, I promise, really not a not a
Speaker 1: fair characterization of what Nikola Yoki did last year when
Speaker 1: he was on the floor, Jason Monte Morris was the
Speaker 1: primary perimeter initiator. But you're completely right about the historical precedent,
Speaker 1: and we have seen it way of a bit because
Speaker 1: Nico Yoka is the best offensive player alive and he's
Speaker 1: carrying these bomb squads to be you know, play like
Speaker 1: elite teams when he's out there. But between Michael Jordan
Speaker 1: and Russell Westbrook in every single m v P between
Speaker 1: those two was a top two seed in their conference.
Speaker 1: So you know, unless we've completely gone away from that precedent,
Speaker 1: you should be right. That's what I've thought about Luke
Speaker 1: in the last two years. They're not gonna win enough games,
Speaker 1: and that's why I feel like, you honest has got
Speaker 1: to be the choice. Right He's the best two player
Speaker 1: in the world on two way player in the world
Speaker 1: on an elite team. Maybe if Embiid could be trusted
Speaker 1: to be healthy for an entire season, he would be
Speaker 1: an equally good choice. But I think it's gotta be honest,
Speaker 1: especially given that he's not even the favorite. So one
Speaker 1: other note on the Luca thing, and I lied because
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take one more shot at Yok. So one
Speaker 1: of the things that helped legitimize his m v P
Speaker 1: case was the Yokich is a good defender thing, and
Speaker 1: uh and and like again, like you just need a
Speaker 1: narrative to drive that. So with with Yokich, it was like, oh,
Speaker 1: he's a good drop coverage big, he defend ends the rim. Well,
Speaker 1: you know, if you over the course of the regular season,
Speaker 1: he's actually a net plus defender. All those things which
Speaker 1: were actually true, but we all knew that there was
Speaker 1: a lack of legitimacy there as it pertained to what
Speaker 1: would happen when teams really game plan to attack him
Speaker 1: in a playoff series. I don't think Luca could get that.
Speaker 1: I don't think. I think. I think in order for
Speaker 1: him to get the narrative support from the NBA media,
Speaker 1: he would have to come up with a legitimate case
Speaker 1: that he's a plus defender. And I just don't even
Speaker 1: see a universe where that's the case. Because even Steph
Speaker 1: in two thousand fifteen and two thousand and sixteen had
Speaker 1: built a narrative that he was a at least an
Speaker 1: average too slightly above average defensive player. Luca is so
Speaker 1: far from that at this point. It's just that that
Speaker 1: would be such a stay away from me, stay away
Speaker 1: from that that it's just something I wouldn't touch with
Speaker 1: the ten foot pole. Totally with you on the Luca points.
Speaker 1: Not sure we need all the Yokat references, but yet MVP,
Speaker 1: in spite of all these things, didn't have team success,
Speaker 1: didn't have defense, didn't have efficiency, and I put up
Speaker 1: a lot of big numbers and he got it. So
Speaker 1: we'll see. It seems that some of the historical standards
Speaker 1: have waivered a bed. Yes they have when you look,
Speaker 1: but Yoki's just not the example to point because he's incredible.
Speaker 1: I promised, I've done. Okay, thank you. Let's move on.
Speaker 1: What's your favorite team win total over under for this season? Okay?
Speaker 1: So I had mentioned the Celtics earlier a couple of things. Um,
Speaker 1: So they're over under right now according to Vanduel um
Speaker 1: is fifty three and a half. And I get it.
Speaker 1: It's two and a half more than last year. They
Speaker 1: only won fifty one games, but they started last year
Speaker 1: seventeen and twenty one. That's one hell of a buffer
Speaker 1: that they basically played against throughout the season. They finished
Speaker 1: the season thirty three and ten, and unlike the Dallas
Speaker 1: Mavericks who uh in the Phoenix Suns, who put up
Speaker 1: big numbers there but had major playoff shortcomings that undercut that.
Speaker 1: The Celtics, you know, translated that success into something that
Speaker 1: we knew was legitimate based on what happened in the playoffs. Now,
Speaker 1: usually there's some history to the idea that like you
Speaker 1: are what your record says you are. So like, if
Speaker 1: you suck for a third of the year and then
Speaker 1: you're awesome for two thirds of the year and the
Speaker 1: result is your fifty one and thirty one, then chances
Speaker 1: are your one team. I get that, but I actually
Speaker 1: believe this was a case of a team that discovered
Speaker 1: its identity and actually took a leap and who they
Speaker 1: were as a basketball team. I also think that the
Speaker 1: reps that they got in that playoff run the development
Speaker 1: of Tatum. I don't know if you saw Jalen Brown
Speaker 1: in his first preseason game, but he's picking up right
Speaker 1: where he left off in that playoff run. He's actually,
Speaker 1: I think a little bit better of a scorer than
Speaker 1: Tatum is at this point, at least in terms of
Speaker 1: versatility of where he gets his points on the floor.
Speaker 1: Like they're they're they're just damn good, and I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna win a ton of games. And they added
Speaker 1: Malcolm Brogden, who specifically targeted one of their biggest weaknesses.
Speaker 1: I understand the depth issues, I understand the Robert Williams
Speaker 1: injury concerns, but I actually think I had I went
Speaker 1: over this in depth in our Boston Celtics season preview pod.
Speaker 1: But there's a lot of bad that comes with Robert
Speaker 1: Williams to he freelances way too much. He actually is
Speaker 1: responsible for a lot of their defensive breakdowns. He causes
Speaker 1: some issues for their spacing and their driving kick. I
Speaker 1: like Robert Williams. He's good for them, but I think
Speaker 1: they're just as good without him, So as long as
Speaker 1: they don't suffer some sort of significant injury. I don't
Speaker 1: see any universe where they finished with fewer than fifty
Speaker 1: five wins. Do you have a team that you think
Speaker 1: is more of a sleeper where maybe the numbers a
Speaker 1: little bit lower, but you really like it. So the
Speaker 1: two that I put down as potential other opportunities the
Speaker 1: Sixers at fifty point five again, their talent is ridiculous. Again,
Speaker 1: I know, I know, there's not a lot of uh
Speaker 1: you know, Tyres Maxie has flaws. He's not a great
Speaker 1: defensive player, and there's a question about whether or not
Speaker 1: he could be a great primary creator or Tobias Harris
Speaker 1: obviously is like can be extremely mediocre from time to time.
Speaker 1: But when he's the fourth best player on your roster
Speaker 1: and Maxie's the third best player on your roster, and
Speaker 1: they've already been dealing with all this bad luck with
Speaker 1: mbat he's due for a better luck year and James
Speaker 1: Harden potentially having a bounce back season. I think they're
Speaker 1: one of the most talented teams in the Eastern Conference.
Speaker 1: I could see them winning a lot and then as
Speaker 1: far as the safe bet goes the Lakers under forty
Speaker 1: four and a half, I still believe in their ultimate ceiling.
Speaker 1: I think Anthony Davis is gonna have an amazing season.
Speaker 1: I think Lebron James is gonna have an amazing season.
Speaker 1: But like if you're assigning percentage chances that things are
Speaker 1: gonna go one way or another, you know, if you
Speaker 1: were saying which side is the things go right and
Speaker 1: they end up a top four seed and contend in
Speaker 1: the West, versus things go off the rails quickly and
Speaker 1: horrifically like it's a better than fifty percent chance that
Speaker 1: the negative side happens. And so as a bet for
Speaker 1: them to go under forty four and a half, you
Speaker 1: literally just need Lebron or Anthony Davis to miss maybe
Speaker 1: twenty games because they are so talent deprived that if
Speaker 1: one of those guys goes goes down, they instantly become
Speaker 1: the underdog in every single game they play. Like even like,
Speaker 1: do you think that Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis, Patrick Beverley,
Speaker 1: and Dennis Schroeder can go beat the Detroit Pistons in Detroit, Like,
Speaker 1: I don't think they can. They're like they're like they're
Speaker 1: that they're so devoid of talent that if Lebron James
Speaker 1: and Anthony Davis are on the floor playing at the
Speaker 1: top of their games, they're just not a good basketball team.
Speaker 1: So even though there's a good chance they go over
Speaker 1: that because of Lebron and a d on a revenge tour,
Speaker 1: there's just so much opportunity for that to go off
Speaker 1: the rails, And forty four and a half is such
Speaker 1: a large number in a stacked Western conference. I like
Speaker 1: that as a decent opportunity as an under I like
Speaker 1: both those and just to give more context to your
Speaker 1: Philly pick, which by the way, I also really liked
Speaker 1: for the title at six to one. They won fifty
Speaker 1: one games last year, and now you think Max will
Speaker 1: be improved, Harden should be in much better form. They
Speaker 1: added some quality role players. The last one I would
Speaker 1: throw out there that I'm sure a lot of people
Speaker 1: are looking at and probably like is the Pelicans that
Speaker 1: only forty three and a half. I think that number
Speaker 1: might have already come up a bit, but it feels like,
Speaker 1: you know, Zion is healthy for sixty plus games. I
Speaker 1: don't see how that number doesn't hit for a team
Speaker 1: that was top ten on both ends of the ball
Speaker 1: post All Star Break last year and still has young,
Speaker 1: developing talent. The one thing that will be interesting to
Speaker 1: kind of factor in here is, uh, not so much
Speaker 1: for the lower level teams that when we're talking about
Speaker 1: the upper level teams so like. Part of the reason
Speaker 1: why the Celtics, box Clippers, Warriors, like all these teams
Speaker 1: sixers have somewhat low over unders is the league is
Speaker 1: considered deeper with talent than ever, which it absolutely is.
Speaker 1: There's a good reason for people to feel that way.
Speaker 1: But the reality is this Victor woman Yama is available
Speaker 1: this and we Carson and I were chatting about it
Speaker 1: before the show, just just just freaking out about all
Speaker 1: the amazing potential that he has in the NBA. But
Speaker 1: like with Victor on the table, with Scoot Henderson on
Speaker 1: the table, there's I'm not super informed on this draft,
Speaker 1: but I've heard that it's the can even go deeper
Speaker 1: than that. With what with players that are considered potential
Speaker 1: star prospects. You could see a lot of teams towards
Speaker 1: the bottom of the league really pack it in sooner
Speaker 1: than later. And what inevitably ends up happening with that
Speaker 1: is it inflates win totals for the top top team. So,
Speaker 1: for instance, when the Bucks had the best record in
Speaker 1: the league and Janice one m v P, I was
Speaker 1: screaming from the mountaintops that like the bottom of the
Speaker 1: Eastern Conference was just atrocious, like they were truly awful,
Speaker 1: and they the Bucks racked up like twenty wins against
Speaker 1: garbage teams and beat them all by like twenty five
Speaker 1: and it inflated all their advanced metrics and inflated them
Speaker 1: in the standings. The West was a blood Bath that
Speaker 1: year and the Lakers were only like three games behind
Speaker 1: them in the standings. I thought Lebron should have won
Speaker 1: the MVP that year. That's kind of my thought process
Speaker 1: there is like, if this particular draft drives a bunch
Speaker 1: of teams towards the bottom, if you have a year
Speaker 1: where instead of two or three teams tanking, you have
Speaker 1: six or seven teams tanking, You're gonna have a lot
Speaker 1: of teams that go from fifty four win seasons to
Speaker 1: fifty nine win seasons just because they're gonna have easy
Speaker 1: wins on the schedule. So overs at the top of
Speaker 1: the league I think become more interesting as the draft
Speaker 1: it becomes more interesting. I like that logic. A lot
Speaker 1: nobody won under twenty games last year in the whole league.
Speaker 1: I could see three or four doing that this year,
Speaker 1: although there is also so much great competition at the
Speaker 1: top that you wonder if any one or two teams
Speaker 1: is gonna totally pull away. Give me, give me your
Speaker 1: favorite player prop for this season. Okay, so my favorite
Speaker 1: is go Bear at plus four fifty to win Defensive
Speaker 1: Player of the Year. So here's why. First of all, Minnesota,
Speaker 1: he's he's a regular season defense machine because of the
Speaker 1: way that drop coverage functions so well during the NBA
Speaker 1: regular season. Also, that team has a bunch of hype
Speaker 1: around it, so they're gonna play really hard every night.
Speaker 1: They're gonna almost immediately be a top ten defense, maybe
Speaker 1: even top five. Right, So from that standpoint, you have
Speaker 1: the refresh on voter fatigue because he's in a new situation,
Speaker 1: even though there's a bunch of things that are gonna
Speaker 1: lead to that, like uh, for instance, you know, uh, um,
Speaker 1: Anthony Edwards potentially making improvements. You know, Carl Town's moving
Speaker 1: to the four. You're gonna have a ton of size
Speaker 1: all over the floor. Um, there's gonna be a lot
Speaker 1: of reasons why Minnesota is gonna be better this year.
Speaker 1: But just in terms of the narrative, all of the
Speaker 1: credits gonna go to Gobert, and with him being in
Speaker 1: a new situation, the refresh on the voter fatigue plus
Speaker 1: four fifty for Gobert to win Defensive Player of the Year.
Speaker 1: I really liked that. The other three that I really liked,
Speaker 1: James Harden is plus one nine two average twenty four
Speaker 1: points per game. Now why I like that is not
Speaker 1: only do I believe that he's gonna be much better
Speaker 1: this season. It's clear that that's his mentality. He said
Speaker 1: in media Day that he believes he can win m
Speaker 1: v P this year. So up here he still thinks
Speaker 1: he's two thousand and eighteen. James Harden, if that affects
Speaker 1: his shot profile at all, this guy is so gifted
Speaker 1: at manufacturing points. I think in the in the player rankings,
Speaker 1: I pointed out that James Harden draws a foul still
Speaker 1: on like tent of his isolations. That's insane. Almost almost
Speaker 1: one out of every three times he isolates a defender,
Speaker 1: he draws a foul. So he's just so good at
Speaker 1: manufacturing points. And that's such a low threshold twenty four
Speaker 1: points per game to get that at plus one nine,
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis, if you believe in his revenge campaign, is
Speaker 1: plus two seventy two average twenty six points per game,
Speaker 1: and then Janice is plus four twenty to lead the
Speaker 1: league in scorning all the guys that were at the
Speaker 1: top of the league last year Lebron James. This year,
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis is going to be back. They have more
Speaker 1: ball handling with Kendrick Nunn right, So in Dennis Schroder.
Speaker 1: So the Lakers are scoring is gonna be more dispersed.
Speaker 1: Lebron scoring should come down. You look at the Sixers.
Speaker 1: Joel Embiid was near the top of that list last year.
Speaker 1: With the return of James Harden hopefully back to what
Speaker 1: he was. Tyrese Maxi's development, you could see m Beads
Speaker 1: scoring ticked down from thirty one points a game to
Speaker 1: like twenty eight as that get gets dispersed more. Kevin
Speaker 1: Durant spent most of the season playing without Kyrie Irving.
Speaker 1: Last year, Kyrie Irving back in the picture. This year,
Speaker 1: Ben Simmons in the picture. You could see a little
Speaker 1: bit more dispersion of scoring, driving the average for Kevin
Speaker 1: Durant down. Those guys could be closer to eight. Janice,
Speaker 1: you're gonna you can book him for thirty every single night.
Speaker 1: He did it last year with Middleton and Drew. He'll
Speaker 1: do it this year with Middleton and Drew. So for
Speaker 1: him at plus four twenty to lead the league in scoring,
Speaker 1: I really liked that. As a potential player prop I
Speaker 1: like those. I like that you're sticking with the revenge
Speaker 1: tour themes for a d and Harden and it is reasonable,
Speaker 1: it's good value. I mean, you know, for a d
Speaker 1: game was like automatic for four straight years hard and
Speaker 1: even two years ago in Brooklyn when he was more
Speaker 1: geared towards playmaking, was still putting up almost twenty five.
Speaker 1: So I like all those numbers. All right, let's keep
Speaker 1: it moving here and talk about this GM survey. So
Speaker 1: we'll start again with the most important thing on the menu,
Speaker 1: the NBA title. Only four teams received votes from all
Speaker 1: the GMS as their title favorite, the Box, the Warriors,
Speaker 1: the Clippers, and the Celtics. What's your reaction to that, Jason.
Speaker 1: So when I when I was looking at the GM survey,
Speaker 1: I look at it from a couple of different angles,
Speaker 1: getting different perspectives of where people uh, where general managers
Speaker 1: around the league see the game going, which players that
Speaker 1: they prefer. And then also it's just a great chance
Speaker 1: to kind of see how you know, because I it's
Speaker 1: funny when I started doing this show, like so many
Speaker 1: of you guys, the fans of the show, like I
Speaker 1: listened to every single basketball podcast, listened to Bill Simmons,
Speaker 1: I listened to Zach low I listened to you know,
Speaker 1: the pizzeis who runs like your Film Room. I listened
Speaker 1: to like a half dozen different basketball podcasts, and I
Speaker 1: still occasionally do, but nowhere near as much. One of
Speaker 1: the big reasons why is I don't want them to
Speaker 1: color my analysis. I want to come at it with
Speaker 1: an unbiased perspective and reach my own conclusions to the
Speaker 1: best of my ability. And it's good to see how
Speaker 1: the way that I see the game, if it actually is,
Speaker 1: stacks up with some things that GM's around the league
Speaker 1: see the game, or if there's disagreement, because that doesn't
Speaker 1: necessarily mean I'm wrong either, it's different perspective, right. And
Speaker 1: so this was an example where I saw an immediate
Speaker 1: parallel because I saw a top tier and then a
Speaker 1: big drop off. I saw Clippers, Bucks, Warriors, and Celtics.
Speaker 1: And to see that the other four, or that the
Speaker 1: other gms in the league viewed those four as the
Speaker 1: only teams that really had a good, legitimate chance to
Speaker 1: win the title, it just shows that that, at least
Speaker 1: in this particular case, our line of thinking is in
Speaker 1: line with what most of the front offices around the
Speaker 1: league are thinking. I think that it is honestly a
Speaker 1: the solid tier of the top four. In my opinion,
Speaker 1: and I also, you know, would not say that I'm
Speaker 1: overly surprised by seeing the GM results reflect that. Okay,
Speaker 1: something else that stood out. There was a lot of
Speaker 1: love given to Steph and to the Warriors offense makes
Speaker 1: sense given that they just won the title, but Steph
Speaker 1: was awarded as the player who causes teams to make
Speaker 1: the most adjustments. The Warriors were given best offense. So
Speaker 1: what's your reaction to that? And do you expect them
Speaker 1: to be the best team in the league this year?
Speaker 1: So I expect them to be that. I have them
Speaker 1: as number one in my power rankings, meaning meaning I
Speaker 1: expect them to be the best team with the biggest
Speaker 1: likelihood to win the title. But specifically on the offensive end,
Speaker 1: I don't think you know. In that GM survey, they
Speaker 1: specifically said that the Warriors run the best offense in
Speaker 1: the league. Now, that to me is a separate topic
Speaker 1: from production. Offensive production, because the Warriors were sixteenth in
Speaker 1: offense last year. And if as you go back in time,
Speaker 1: like two title went to the Golden State Warriors, who
Speaker 1: were an unbelievable defensive team in an average half court offense,
Speaker 1: then we go to last year with the Milwaukee Bucks,
Speaker 1: and it's like they were the best, one of the
Speaker 1: best defensive teams in the league, and their offense got
Speaker 1: clunky when they got in the half court. And then
Speaker 1: we go to the Lakers and they were the best
Speaker 1: defense in the league, and their offense got really clunky
Speaker 1: in the half court. And the main reason why is one,
Speaker 1: they play defensive personnel, and then two they devote large
Speaker 1: portions of energy and effort to the defensive end of
Speaker 1: the floor. For instance, I think Denver is gonna finish
Speaker 1: with the best offense overall by offensive raiding in basketball
Speaker 1: this year. Big part of that is they prioritize offensive personnel.
Speaker 1: You know. They they believe that they are a better
Speaker 1: team with Michael Porter Jr. Giving up more points on
Speaker 1: defense than they are with going with a three and
Speaker 1: d wing and limiting what they can do on the
Speaker 1: offensive end of the flour. Even with their effort and
Speaker 1: focus and energy, they're not devote outing as much effort
Speaker 1: to the defensive end as teams like the Warriors and
Speaker 1: the Bucks are right, and so in terms of offensive rating,
Speaker 1: I don't think the Warriors will be towards the top,
Speaker 1: but it is important to acknowledge that they do run
Speaker 1: by far the most sophisticated offense in the league in
Speaker 1: every single metric. In terms of screening actions run, they're
Speaker 1: miles ahead of the other teams in the league. When
Speaker 1: I was doing my season preview, the vast majority of
Speaker 1: teams are just running a basic motion when they come
Speaker 1: up the floor and live ball situations, maybe a ball screen,
Speaker 1: maybe a dribble handoff, not a whole lot going on
Speaker 1: in terms of player movement. And then they'll run sets
Speaker 1: out of dead ball situations, so like free throws or
Speaker 1: occasionally after a made basket or out of a time out.
Speaker 1: The Warriors run sets almost every time down the floor.
Speaker 1: They get down, they get in their five out, and
Speaker 1: they run multiple interchanges every single time. It's one of
Speaker 1: the it's one of the big ways that allows them
Speaker 1: to have their offense translate to success in the postseason.
Speaker 1: Teams are just not even used to guard teams that
Speaker 1: run sets as often as they do. So it's important
Speaker 1: to acknowledge that the Warriors run the most sophisticated offense
Speaker 1: in the league, but in terms of production, they'll never
Speaker 1: be as high as the other teams in the league
Speaker 1: because they play guys like Draymond and Andrew Wiggins, who
Speaker 1: are defensive minded role players and they devote large portions
Speaker 1: of their energy and focus and attention to the defensive
Speaker 1: end of the floor. And then, last, but not least,
Speaker 1: there was a little a little plug for Steph Curry.
Speaker 1: Um they said that Steph Curry is the player that
Speaker 1: commands teams to make the most to make to make
Speaker 1: the most adjustments. And that just goes right back to
Speaker 1: what we were saying every other player that you're guarding
Speaker 1: that's at the top of the league, whether that's Luca
Speaker 1: Donche or Lebron or Kevin Durant or even with the
Speaker 1: post players, it's maybe a double and recover scheme, but
Speaker 1: with those other heliocentric players, it's like you're setting up
Speaker 1: pick and roll coverages. You're talking about where help is
Speaker 1: coming from. But like when you've played seven or eight
Speaker 1: games in a row and you get to the Golden
Speaker 1: State Warriors game, it's like everything's got to be crumpled
Speaker 1: up and thrown in the track because like now, everything
Speaker 1: we're doing to guard this team has to be specifically
Speaker 1: catered to them. And so when I saw that Steph
Speaker 1: Kirk that that point about Steph Curry being the player
Speaker 1: that dictates the most adjustments. I thought that was a
Speaker 1: really interesting a piece of information coming from the front
Speaker 1: offices because it means that they they see what we
Speaker 1: all see, which is they're just very different from every
Speaker 1: other team in the league. They command you to play
Speaker 1: a completely different way. I talked about in the season preview.
Speaker 1: The Warriors almost always go up to one in a
Speaker 1: two oh in a playoff series. It's very rare for
Speaker 1: them to lose a game like they did in Game
Speaker 1: one against the Celtics in the Finals, and even in
Speaker 1: that game, they controlled the game through three quarters, they
Speaker 1: just blew it with a bad fourth quarter. They catch
Speaker 1: every team off guard with what they do offensively, and
Speaker 1: it's a huge part of what allows them to get
Speaker 1: early advantages in series. And when you're up to oh,
Speaker 1: it's like, man, I just need to win two of
Speaker 1: the next five games. It buys you a lot of leeway,
Speaker 1: and so I I just I thought it was cool
Speaker 1: to see that MS acknowledge that they're they're the most
Speaker 1: sophisticated offensive team in the league, and I don't think
Speaker 1: it's particularly close. I think you make a really interesting
Speaker 1: point though, with this question about sort of the results
Speaker 1: versus the methodology split almost or the method just the
Speaker 1: structure of the offense, because there's a pretty strong consensus.
Speaker 1: Thirty eight percent of GM's said that the Warriors would
Speaker 1: have the most efficient offense in basketball. And like you said,
Speaker 1: I mean, even last year with Steph on the floor,
Speaker 1: they played at just below the fifth best offensive level
Speaker 1: in the league and the most adjustments questions. Very interesting.
Speaker 1: Steph makes a ton of sense. And the top five
Speaker 1: overall is very logical. It's Yo, honest, Yoki, Embiide and Lucas,
Speaker 1: So you know, I would think that's pretty much what
Speaker 1: you would expect. Those are really overwhelming offensive forces who
Speaker 1: demand those, you know, entire shifts in scheme and approach.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot from the NBA g M survey
Speaker 1: that will get grabbed and highlighted. People love to look
Speaker 1: at m VP, favorite title favorite oftentimes who's the player
Speaker 1: it GM's would most like to have five years from now?
Speaker 1: What were your favorite selections out of this whole survey
Speaker 1: That may not have grabbed those headlines as much, So
Speaker 1: I put down two um for starters. I thought it
Speaker 1: was really interesting that they said the two best coaches
Speaker 1: in the league were Spolstra and cur Once again, that
Speaker 1: has mimiced something I've been saying all summer long. So
Speaker 1: it's just good to see that that we're reaching similar
Speaker 1: conclusions to the guys that do this for the big bucks,
Speaker 1: you know what I mean, UM and just they din't
Speaker 1: they split that into two separate dynamics. They think that
Speaker 1: spoils sture ones that runs the most sophisticated defensive schemes.
Speaker 1: That immediately brought me to the way that they almost
Speaker 1: completely erased Joel Embiide from the Eastern Conference SEMIS with
Speaker 1: that kind of like that bracketing scheme where they were
Speaker 1: fronting him and offering backside help. They're really good at
Speaker 1: taking you out of what you like to do and
Speaker 1: making you do stuff that you don't want to do.
Speaker 1: They're very malleable, willing to make adjustments. That staff is
Speaker 1: really impressive. And then we just talked about everything that
Speaker 1: Steve Kurt does on the offensive end of the floor.
Speaker 1: So it's cool to see that UM represented in the
Speaker 1: GM survey. And then the second one, I put Malcolm
Speaker 1: Brogden as the one the underrated player acquisition question. I
Speaker 1: still don't think people realize just how much he's going
Speaker 1: to help Boston. And you know, Marcus Smart kind of
Speaker 1: does a lot of what Brogden does, but in a
Speaker 1: way more volatile way. Um he can go off script,
Speaker 1: take bad shots a lot of the time, and and
Speaker 1: and just try to do too much from time to time.
Speaker 1: And I like Marcus Smart, but he just he wasn't
Speaker 1: enough to fix the ball handling issues that Jayson Tatum
Speaker 1: and Jaylen Brown brought to the table. Adding Malcolm Brogden
Speaker 1: out there and immediately you saw it in the preseason opener.
Speaker 1: I think he had nine assists in that game, especially
Speaker 1: when he was running the offense with the bench unit
Speaker 1: to start the second quarter. He's just got such a
Speaker 1: natural feel for running an offense out high pick and
Speaker 1: roll with the intention of generating driving kick opportunities. He
Speaker 1: already has a natural chemistry with Grant Williams. They have
Speaker 1: a good connection with each other on how to relocate
Speaker 1: to get good shots and and and Brogden's always hunting him.
Speaker 1: He's getting the ball to players on time and on target.
Speaker 1: That's an underrated ability as a passer when you factor
Speaker 1: in the athleticism of these players, especially in the late
Speaker 1: rounds of the playoffs, Like if you throw the pass
Speaker 1: a little bit low into the side and the guy
Speaker 1: has to bobble it or go out of his way
Speaker 1: to catch it before he can get balanced again, that
Speaker 1: fraction of a second can be long enough for a
Speaker 1: great athlete to to close out and to take the
Speaker 1: shot opportunity away. Malcolm Brogden's precision with the way he
Speaker 1: locates passes two shooters on the wing will open up
Speaker 1: that driving kick game that Boston is so good at.
Speaker 1: I I just I think he's a huge influx of
Speaker 1: talent that directly attacks one of their very specific needs
Speaker 1: and weaknesses. I agreed that it was the most underrated
Speaker 1: player acquisition into the summer. A lot of people are
Speaker 1: down on the Celtics. I don't understand why. It's like, oh,
Speaker 1: they would have lost to the Bucks if it wasn't
Speaker 1: for Chris Middleton. You're right, but then the Bucks didn't
Speaker 1: get better and the Celtics got better. And you know,
Speaker 1: Tatum and Brown are rapidly ascending, and like Robert Williams
Speaker 1: was playing with a balky knew during the entire playoffs,
Speaker 1: like they're gonna be better too, And and I think
Speaker 1: we're too quick. And if it wasn't for Jason Tatum
Speaker 1: completely following apart in the NBA Finals, they might be
Speaker 1: the defending champs. I think, I think teams I know,
Speaker 1: they're the Vegas favorite. That's the That's the funny subplot
Speaker 1: here is the is the Celtics are actually the Vegas
Speaker 1: favorite right now. But in terms of the sentiment that
Speaker 1: I pick up talking to people and what I see
Speaker 1: on Twitter, it seems like people are too low on
Speaker 1: the Celtics right now, and and that puzzles me. I'm
Speaker 1: with you, and I think that the broad didn't pick
Speaker 1: up is massive. I mean you mentioned just the versatility,
Speaker 1: the the stability that he brings to an offense. He's
Speaker 1: been twenty five and six on solid efficiency and it
Speaker 1: is going to compete defensively for the last couple of years,
Speaker 1: and I think introduced him into a role where he
Speaker 1: doesn't have to try to be a you know, leading
Speaker 1: star offensive force and he can settle in as like
Speaker 1: a third option. I think he will do some really
Speaker 1: great things as a playmaker and then also getting his
Speaker 1: own just a really good all around player. So let's
Speaker 1: flip here from sort of pleasant surprises some of your
Speaker 1: favorites with that last one to what disappointed you most
Speaker 1: about this survey. So I put two things, um one,
Speaker 1: a couple of picks that I disagreed with, and then
Speaker 1: to a formatting thing that didn't make any sense to me. So,
Speaker 1: first of all, uh, for best perimeter defender in the NBA,
Speaker 1: they put Marcus Smart and Drew Holiday as the top two,
Speaker 1: and I just don't think that you can put small
Speaker 1: players at the top of the league. That doesn't mean
Speaker 1: that those guys aren't good defensive players. They are, like
Speaker 1: Drew Holidays, incredible, Marcus Smart literally just one defensive player
Speaker 1: of the year. Although I disagreed with that pick. When
Speaker 1: you when you look at those guys, they're great perimeter
Speaker 1: contain guys. They can get into ball handlers, but their
Speaker 1: size does add an element of matchup attacking. You see
Speaker 1: Drew Holiday struggle with bigger wings from time to time,
Speaker 1: especially the bigger, stronger ones like the khiele Enards and
Speaker 1: the Lebron James of the world. I still prefer the
Speaker 1: bigger wing. And then the other thing, too, is perimeter
Speaker 1: defense to me is not just about dribble contain. It's
Speaker 1: also about the ability to rotate as as plays break
Speaker 1: down in a driving kick system. And so for me,
Speaker 1: I look at like guys like Jayson Tatum, guys like
Speaker 1: Mikhail Bridges, Guys like Andrew Wiggins, Guys like Ben Simmons,
Speaker 1: that six seven to six ten long arms, freak athlete
Speaker 1: that can contain the ball but also cover tons of
Speaker 1: ground in rotation and be kind of frightening there, but
Speaker 1: also hold their own against mismatches against bigger wings that
Speaker 1: might try to back them down, Like could any of
Speaker 1: those guys guardianess know, but neither can Drew Holiday or
Speaker 1: and Marcus Smart. But I just prefer that archetype. And
Speaker 1: I disagreed with that. It's are is the the kind
Speaker 1: of formatting thing that I disagreed with. I they ordered
Speaker 1: the player rankings by position type, and that just screwed
Speaker 1: everything up because then it was like Steph Curry's the
Speaker 1: best point guard, Devin Booker's the best to guard, and
Speaker 1: then they go right to the forwards and so then
Speaker 1: you're getting into your Lebron's or kadis and your honestes
Speaker 1: and stuff like that. And what bothered me about that is,
Speaker 1: I'm like I'm sitting there thinking, like so you're saying
Speaker 1: the two best perimeter players in the league, or Steph
Speaker 1: Curry and Devin Booker. Like at a certain point, like
Speaker 1: the one thing means literally nothing. Now it means literally nothing.
Speaker 1: I I would say maybe the five when you're talking
Speaker 1: about pick and roll coverages, you can it's like a
Speaker 1: specific position. Yeah, but and like maybe you're playing the
Speaker 1: guy who brings the ball up the floor versus the
Speaker 1: guy that runs the wings. Yeah. Like there it's I
Speaker 1: simplified it down in my season previews to guards, wings, bigs.
Speaker 1: That's what it is. That's the way they need to
Speaker 1: rank these things. It just then it comes out weird,
Speaker 1: where like why isn't Luca don Chich near the top
Speaker 1: of that list, Like like he's you know, behind Booker
Speaker 1: as a two guard, but also behind step as a
Speaker 1: point guard. That just doesn't make any sense. So at
Speaker 1: a certain point, like I know, the position list thing
Speaker 1: gets thrown around a little too much. But the reality
Speaker 1: is is like we don't have a shooting guard anymore.
Speaker 1: That's not a thing in the NBA. And we have
Speaker 1: we have guards, we have wings, we have bigs. That's
Speaker 1: what we have. That's the way it should be ordered
Speaker 1: from that one, And to take your point even further,
Speaker 1: I think there's an argument that shooting guards specifically will
Speaker 1: consistently be a weaker position because of the way that
Speaker 1: they classified. In that historical sense, most of the great
Speaker 1: scoring guards convert to primary ball handlers. James Hart goes
Speaker 1: from being a quote unquote shooting guard to okay, now
Speaker 1: he's running the entire offense, is going to be a
Speaker 1: point guard. So to be a shooting guard you probably
Speaker 1: need to have some sort of playmaking limitation. Like it's
Speaker 1: Devin Booker, Demard Rose, and Zach Lavine, Bradley Beale. None
Speaker 1: of those guys are like lead playmaker types. So I
Speaker 1: and agree with you more. I mean, you're disqualifying players.
Speaker 1: Luca dont is a shooting guard size, but yeah, he's
Speaker 1: a primary ball handler, so he's clearly better. Do away
Speaker 1: with it. I think do away with it across the
Speaker 1: board down to certainly the five specific positions. I think
Speaker 1: that's just ridiculous. And I agree with you on the
Speaker 1: best perimeter defender point. I thought it should have been
Speaker 1: Ben Simmons, and he was in the like others receiving
Speaker 1: votes category, but last time we saw him out there,
Speaker 1: I thought he was the best perimeter defender on the planet.
Speaker 1: So you know, it's very interesting obviously all these results.
Speaker 1: But I I completely agree with both those things that
Speaker 1: you highlighted there. So really quick, really quickly, really quickly.
Speaker 1: Um the on the position types thing, you can get
Speaker 1: really crazy with like different archetypes, Like it is more
Speaker 1: complicated than guard wing, big, but it certainly is not
Speaker 1: point guard shooting, guard small forward powerful. Like it's more
Speaker 1: like you have your primary ball handlers and they need
Speaker 1: to be able to shoot off the drible because I
Speaker 1: they can't shoot off the ribble, then you can't run
Speaker 1: pick and roll with them. Then you have like movement shooters,
Speaker 1: guys that you run off of screens, right, might have
Speaker 1: high post threats, low post threats. You have guys who
Speaker 1: screen and run to the rim, or screen and popped
Speaker 1: to the three point line. There's all these different archetypes
Speaker 1: of offensive players, but I'm just saying they don't fall
Speaker 1: into position groupings. And we were just talking before the
Speaker 1: show that Victor Weiman Yama might be a movement shooter
Speaker 1: and he's a five. So like, at the end of
Speaker 1: the day, it's like your skill set slots you into
Speaker 1: a specific archetype of player, but not a position. That's
Speaker 1: the that's the line of thinking. We've got a ditch,
Speaker 1: completely agree with you there. We got one last question,
Speaker 1: because Lebron still made his mark on this survey. He
Speaker 1: was ranked the fifth most athletic and the second most
Speaker 1: versatile player in the entire NBA. What are your expectations
Speaker 1: for him in year twenty Uh? You know, health is
Speaker 1: going to be the big thing. I mean, he was
Speaker 1: cruiser right along last year and then one day he
Speaker 1: woke up in his knee was swollen. But I think
Speaker 1: you know, I saw that Lebron is the fifth most
Speaker 1: athletic player in the league, and I was like, man,
Speaker 1: that's probably right. I'm sure you guys all saw that
Speaker 1: that clip from this from training camp last week where
Speaker 1: he dunked all over I'm blanking on his name now,
Speaker 1: but that the big white dude shop blocker that the
Speaker 1: Lakers have, that's that played in the G League last year.
Speaker 1: And I'm just sitting there and I'm like, how many
Speaker 1: players in the league are doing that right now? And
Speaker 1: there was a I don't know if you saw this, Carson,
Speaker 1: there was a missed dunk from Scottie Barnes in the
Speaker 1: Raptors first preseason game at the end of the first quarter,
Speaker 1: and he kinda it was eerily reminiscent to Lebron's dunk
Speaker 1: on Yusuf Nurkitch back in two thousand eighteen, the ridiculous one.
Speaker 1: Uh they had Jr. Smith freaking out and running out
Speaker 1: onto the floor. Scotty Barnes kind of starts really high
Speaker 1: and they run like a ball screen, kind of almost
Speaker 1: at like half court, and he gets downhill and he
Speaker 1: takes off from the same spot Lebron did, and it
Speaker 1: gets rim stuffed and he wasn't high enough, he didn't
Speaker 1: get there. And I'm sitting there thinking, I'm like, at
Speaker 1: thirty three, Lebron dumped that over somebody, like the exact
Speaker 1: same type of movement. And we consider Scottie Barnes one
Speaker 1: of the most young, one of the best young athletes
Speaker 1: in the entire league. Like he's kind of like a
Speaker 1: mini Janice in a lot of different ways. So, like,
Speaker 1: you know, it's just a ridiculous testament to the way
Speaker 1: he's taking care of his body and just the type
Speaker 1: of unicorn athletic prospect that he was. And then he
Speaker 1: got voted the second most versatile player in the league
Speaker 1: as well, as you had mentioned, that's what's keeping him
Speaker 1: around in this league in terms of his overall impact.
Speaker 1: As he's gotten older, he's improved massively in all of
Speaker 1: the areas he was weaker as a younger player. He's
Speaker 1: still one of the more efficient is players in the
Speaker 1: league's STI one of the more efficient post up players
Speaker 1: in the league. He's efficient as a pull up jump shooter. Now.
Speaker 1: His rim finishing. We talked about this over the off season.
Speaker 1: Jannice like was considered one of the very Janice was
Speaker 1: the best rim finisher in basketball this year with like
Speaker 1: six point seven makes per game in the restricted area
Speaker 1: at like seventy, and Lebron was right there at six
Speaker 1: point six on like seventy. So Like, he just over
Speaker 1: the years has continued to evolve his game and add
Speaker 1: things so that as his athleticism is waned, he's just
Speaker 1: as versatile and impactful as he's ever been. I had
Speaker 1: him as the fourth best player in the league still,
Speaker 1: and I expect big big things from him this year,
Speaker 1: provided that his body holds up, which is obviously a
Speaker 1: big question mark. I think he makes a case for
Speaker 1: most versatile player, I mean certainly offensively, like who else
Speaker 1: just shifts their desires from Okay, I want to be,
Speaker 1: you know, the leading playmaker in the league, to leading
Speaker 1: score in the league, and I want to attack from
Speaker 1: all these different places on the floor, dominating out of
Speaker 1: the post more one year, leaning more on the jump
Speaker 1: shot another Like, I don't think anybody else has had
Speaker 1: the level of ability to just pick how they want
Speaker 1: to kill you like that. I don't think anybody else
Speaker 1: in the league has that. You honest doesn't have that.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, he has his go twos where
Speaker 1: he's overwhelmingly dominant, but he does not have the offensive versatility,
Speaker 1: certainly of Lebron, which is just a marvel about a
Speaker 1: dude entering year twenties, so unprecedented. Yep, I agree. Alright, guys,
Speaker 1: that is all we have for today. As always, we
Speaker 1: sincerely appreciate your support. We'll have one more video coming
Speaker 1: out on Friday, and then we will be back after
Speaker 1: the weekend on Monday. Thanks. As always, we'll see you
Speaker 1: guys next time. The volume