WEBVTT - How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet

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<v Speaker 1>Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

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<v Speaker 1>better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm Nate Silver today on the program.

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<v Speaker 3>Since the last time you heard this show, one of

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<v Speaker 3>the two hosts of Receive Business has won a world

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<v Speaker 3>series of pook or Bracelet. We will soon disclose who

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<v Speaker 3>that is in connect an interview with him or her.

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<v Speaker 1>I love the suspense building night and looking forward to

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<v Speaker 1>the interview with him or her. After that, we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to ship gears and talk about the Nobel Prizes, specifically

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<v Speaker 1>the Nobel Peace Prize that was awarded a last week,

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<v Speaker 1>and pe Doom and the probability of nuclear destruction and

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<v Speaker 1>what has happened with that over the years, and.

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<v Speaker 2>Then some politics. So exciting poker developments.

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<v Speaker 3>This weekend, I was down in uh New Orleans for

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<v Speaker 3>a friend's birthday, play a little bit at the Haras there,

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<v Speaker 3>which has a very aggressive policy of making sure there

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<v Speaker 3>are lots of drink servers.

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<v Speaker 2>So the games are good and loose.

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<v Speaker 3>One three game and I won two hundred and one dollars,

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<v Speaker 3>and even more excited found that it was a twenty

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<v Speaker 3>five dollars ship by forgotten to cash in, so really

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<v Speaker 3>really to twenty six. So I think it would be

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<v Speaker 3>hard to top that for poker accomplishment since the last show, right.

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<v Speaker 2>Maria, I think it would be.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's that's pretty impressive and congratulations. It always

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<v Speaker 1>feels so good to find that extra chip.

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<v Speaker 3>It's like sound, it's like almost better than yeah, it's

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<v Speaker 3>almost better than actually having the cash.

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like, yeah, for sure, for sure, because you

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<v Speaker 1>forget you have it. I love the poker stories, by

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<v Speaker 1>the way, as a tangent of djens, because they're always djens,

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<v Speaker 1>like poker players who are not djens. These stores don't

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<v Speaker 1>happen to them when they're like, oh, you know, I

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<v Speaker 1>was emptying out an old sweatshirt and I found, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>two five K chips or like a day or this

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<v Speaker 1>or that, and they totally forget. They're like, oh, in

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<v Speaker 1>this old backpack, like at a twenty five K chip,

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<v Speaker 1>like it's awesome. So so those stories always tend to

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<v Speaker 1>crack me up, but they do happen. Then it happened

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<v Speaker 1>more frequently than you would think.

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<v Speaker 3>Meanwhile, I woke up on Monday a little bit later

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<v Speaker 3>than usual due to the New Orleans weekend, and I

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<v Speaker 3>saw a note from you posted at what time?

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<v Speaker 2>Was this like three or four in the morning or something.

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<v Speaker 1>It was three in the morning Pacific time.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, okay, Maria, tell me what that note said.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't remember exactly what the wording was, but something

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<v Speaker 1>along the lines of like, holy shit, I won my

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<v Speaker 1>first World Series of Poker bracelet.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh my gosh, Maria, I'm so proud of you, and

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<v Speaker 3>the audience of the show is proud of you too.

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<v Speaker 2>So tell me, tell me everything. Tell me. Did the

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<v Speaker 2>tournament actually end at three am?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah? The tournament ended at like at like two fifes

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<v Speaker 1>day something something along those lines. So it was an

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<v Speaker 1>incredibly long tournament. I mean, it was ten and a

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<v Speaker 1>half hours. But those those hours tend to be much

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<v Speaker 1>more difficult for players like me who are getting on

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<v Speaker 1>in year's night, because we're playing so late into the night. So,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's unlike in a live World Series of

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<v Speaker 1>Poker event, where like you're playing over multiple days. Like here,

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<v Speaker 1>it's just concentrated. And you know, I happen to be

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<v Speaker 1>in Las Vegas right now, which is where I was

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<v Speaker 1>playing this event. But for the poor people on the

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<v Speaker 1>East Coast, it's even worse. Right, they ended at six am,

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<v Speaker 1>So tell me more.

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<v Speaker 3>About this is a bracelet event obviously, what is it

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<v Speaker 3>eighty eight or something?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's the Crazy eight eight eight eight event and

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<v Speaker 1>it was part of so as of last year, the

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<v Speaker 1>World Series of Poker has done a fall series where

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<v Speaker 1>they have I don't actually know how many events twenty

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<v Speaker 1>something like that were they were they award online bracelets,

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<v Speaker 1>which is you know, a different thing because some people

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<v Speaker 1>think that online bracelets shouldn't count, but they do count

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<v Speaker 1>for now. So I'm going to account mine because.

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<v Speaker 2>I want what did you do when you won?

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<v Speaker 1>Oh? My I was very, very tired, and everyone I

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<v Speaker 1>know was asleep, so I oh, except for my parents.

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<v Speaker 1>So my parents are currently on vacation in France. So

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<v Speaker 1>I texted my parents and told them that I want

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<v Speaker 1>a bracelet because they were the only people I knew

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<v Speaker 1>who were awake plus sleep. Anyway, what your husband was asleep?

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<v Speaker 1>He was asleep, yes, but I did wake him up

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<v Speaker 1>to tell him you should Yeah, yes, and uh I

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<v Speaker 1>obviously I also texted Eric's sidell since you know he

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<v Speaker 1>this is as I'm not going to say as much

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<v Speaker 1>as victory, but like, I wouldn't be here if it

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<v Speaker 1>weren't for his mentorship and coaching and training throughout the

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<v Speaker 1>year and support. So he was asleep. But he by

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<v Speaker 1>the time he texted me back, I was asleep because

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I went to bed quite light.

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<v Speaker 2>Did you adopt an a particular strategy for this event?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, do you?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean know, the vibes are a little bit different

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<v Speaker 3>than on Yeah, he's online. I haven't played that many.

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<v Speaker 3>I've never even cashed one night online actually.

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<v Speaker 1>With the World So this is the first. Yeah, this

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<v Speaker 1>is the first time I've played in an online bracelet series.

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<v Speaker 1>Actually that's not true. I played during COVID. So do

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<v Speaker 1>you remember during COVID when the World Series Live was canceled,

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<v Speaker 1>they ended up doing a bracelet series that summer during

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<v Speaker 1>the World Series instead, And we rented an airbnb in

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<v Speaker 1>New Jersey and spent a few weeks in New Jersey

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<v Speaker 1>and I played online there and did not do well.

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<v Speaker 1>But so this is this is a second online series

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<v Speaker 1>that I've played, and I got to Vegas a few

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<v Speaker 1>days ago this weekend and have been able to play

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<v Speaker 1>a few events, and it's definitely you know, it's definitely

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<v Speaker 1>different because I'm a lot I'm someone who specializes in

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<v Speaker 1>live tournaments, so it's hard for me. It's much harder

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<v Speaker 1>for me to play online because I don't see faces,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I don't see a lot of the kind

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<v Speaker 1>of physical things that I would normally use. That's it

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<v Speaker 1>I actually started. You know, I learned poker by playing online.

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<v Speaker 1>I would go to New Jersey every single day and

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<v Speaker 1>play on Poker Stars. I know that. Yeah, so because

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<v Speaker 1>online poker is not legal in New York but is

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<v Speaker 1>legal in New Jersey, I would. I would cross the river,

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<v Speaker 1>i would take the Path train, and I would sit

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<v Speaker 1>in a cafe and I'd play online on Poker Stars.

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<v Speaker 1>And the reason I did that, even though I always

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<v Speaker 1>knew that I had that I wanted to play live,

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<v Speaker 1>was everyone I was working with, namely you know, Eric

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<v Speaker 1>Sidell and Phil Galfond. At the time, they were saying,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you need to get hands in, right, you

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<v Speaker 1>need to get practice in. You need to you need

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<v Speaker 1>to get repetition and figure out what these spots feel like.

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<v Speaker 1>And the only way to do that is by playing online.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's not like, you know, I start it live

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<v Speaker 1>and I've never played online. That was where my initial

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<v Speaker 1>training came from. But I still actually think that for me,

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<v Speaker 1>online poker is much tougher and my I mean, my

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<v Speaker 1>strategy was just to try to play as as well

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<v Speaker 1>as I possibly could, and I ended up in for

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<v Speaker 1>the max number of rebuys, which obviously is not ideal.

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<v Speaker 1>You could rebuy three times and I had, I had,

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<v Speaker 1>I ran pocket Jacks into pocket Kings twice for my

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<v Speaker 1>for two of the bust outs, and my final hand

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<v Speaker 1>of the tournament, actually in Poetic Justice, was pocket Jack's.

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<v Speaker 1>But yeah, so you know, obviously I don't love max rebuying,

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<v Speaker 1>but I was ready to do that, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>sometimes you need to, you know, when you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>rebuys are there for a reason, you know, you're playing

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<v Speaker 1>a rebuy event, and so I just wanted to play

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<v Speaker 1>my best game and uh, really make sure that I

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<v Speaker 1>was playing well and not punting. So a few days ago,

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<v Speaker 1>the first online Bracelet event I played was the thirty

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred six max and I came in eighth, and

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<v Speaker 1>that was so close, and I was actually, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>talking to someone afterwards, and I was like, oh man,

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<v Speaker 1>that's probably the closest I'll ever come to winning a

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<v Speaker 1>Bracelet seventh player. So I and then a few days later,

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<v Speaker 1>I came even closer, so that felt very nice.

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<v Speaker 3>So this fourth bullet, was it relatively smooth that you

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<v Speaker 3>wrack up a big stack early or uh no, so.

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<v Speaker 1>Some of it was smooth, but I actually so you

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<v Speaker 1>can review all of your hands, which I did prior

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<v Speaker 1>to this conversation. You know, I had gotten I got

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<v Speaker 1>short a few times, and then there were actually a

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<v Speaker 1>few pivotal hands that really helped propel me to the win.

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<v Speaker 1>I was middle of the pack for most of the tournament,

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<v Speaker 1>and I was actually quite low. In the last bullet.

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<v Speaker 1>I thought that I was going to bust because I

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<v Speaker 1>got very unlucky in one hand and was down to

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<v Speaker 1>some ten big blinds for a chunk of time, and

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<v Speaker 1>then was able to work it back up, grind it

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<v Speaker 1>back up, and build up a stack. And then there

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<v Speaker 1>were a few hands that I thought were quite interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>I think one of the most important hands in the

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<v Speaker 1>tournament was when we were down to two tables. So

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<v Speaker 1>at this point we were already all in the money,

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<v Speaker 1>and the pay jumps by the way, So because I

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<v Speaker 1>was in for four bullets, I needed to get better

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<v Speaker 1>than tenth to break even. Because it's a very it's

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<v Speaker 1>a very flat payout structure, and we were I think

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<v Speaker 1>there were fifteen of us left at the time, and

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<v Speaker 1>I was kind of middle of the road, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I was I had twenty something big blinds. So I

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<v Speaker 1>ended up we were eight handed at the table, and

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<v Speaker 1>I was in the hijack. For people who don't know poker,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, that's kind of middle middleish position. And I

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<v Speaker 1>was dealt King ten of Spades, which is which is

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty good hand.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you're pretty excited, pretty excited.

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<v Speaker 1>Pretty excited. So I raised men raised, you know, two

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<v Speaker 1>big blinds, and then the player who was on the button,

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<v Speaker 1>who was the biggest stack at the table, so almost

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<v Speaker 1>twice what I had.

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<v Speaker 2>And don't don't know who this is.

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<v Speaker 1>No, his his name was Sabuku. So his screen name

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<v Speaker 1>is Ritualistic Suicide by Disembelment. So so that's fun.

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<v Speaker 2>And you're in the hijack. A lot of violent terminology.

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<v Speaker 1>Here, absolutely, I'm in the hijack, and and he is

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<v Speaker 1>on the button and he decides to three bet me

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<v Speaker 1>and he makes it six bitlines. And you know, this

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<v Speaker 1>is already an interesting spot, right because I'm short enough

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<v Speaker 1>that I could fold, but I have a really playable

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<v Speaker 1>hand right, a hand that does really well post flop,

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<v Speaker 1>and and you know it's not it's not a huge

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<v Speaker 1>three bet anyway. It could go either. It can actually

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<v Speaker 1>go anyway. Right, I can if I think he's full

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<v Speaker 1>of shit, I can just shove because I have a

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<v Speaker 1>nice reshove stack. I can fold, there's no shame in

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<v Speaker 1>folding King ten. Or I can call. And I haven't

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<v Speaker 1>run this hand through any sim yet, so I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>sure if what I did was correct or not. But

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<v Speaker 1>I called, and the flop. So at this point, right,

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<v Speaker 1>what is our pot? At this point, our pot is

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen yard blots, yeah, something like that. And the PLoP

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<v Speaker 1>comes seven eight nine, one spade, two clubs, and we

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<v Speaker 1>have King ten of spades yep. So we have an

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<v Speaker 1>open ended straight draw right, seven eight nine ten, and

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<v Speaker 1>we have a back door flush straw. Right, So we're drawing.

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<v Speaker 1>We're drawing to a lot of nutty or second nutty

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<v Speaker 1>type hands, but we don't have anything. We still have

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<v Speaker 1>King high. So I check, which I would do with

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<v Speaker 1>basically all of my hands in this situation when I'm

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<v Speaker 1>out of position, and he checks back, which is interesting, right,

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<v Speaker 1>because it tells me something about the strength of his hand. Right. Also,

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<v Speaker 1>if he has really strong hands, he doesn't want to

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<v Speaker 1>check back that board because it's an incredibly draw heavy board. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>If you have pocket aces, you do not want me

0:12:29.564 --> 0:12:32.004
<v Speaker 1>to see another card, right, You do not want me

0:12:32.044 --> 0:12:35.124
<v Speaker 1>to hit my straight. You do not want me to

0:12:35.204 --> 0:12:39.564
<v Speaker 1>hit my flush like they're you really do not want

0:12:39.604 --> 0:12:42.844
<v Speaker 1>me to get a free card. Right, So he checks

0:12:42.884 --> 0:12:45.564
<v Speaker 1>back and the turn is a queen of clubs. So

0:12:45.804 --> 0:12:49.564
<v Speaker 1>now jack ten has made us straight. And let's remember

0:12:49.644 --> 0:12:51.324
<v Speaker 1>I have a ten in my hand, right, so I

0:12:51.444 --> 0:12:56.284
<v Speaker 1>block the nuts or the second obviously, meaning for lunch

0:12:56.284 --> 0:12:56.804
<v Speaker 1>has come in.

0:12:57.364 --> 0:12:59.644
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, meaning it's hard now harder for him to have

0:12:59.724 --> 0:13:03.524
<v Speaker 3>combinatorically the best possible hand because you have.

0:13:04.524 --> 0:13:07.244
<v Speaker 1>And that's actually not true because he could still have clubs, right,

0:13:07.284 --> 0:13:09.124
<v Speaker 1>he could have one club in his hand. I don't

0:13:09.164 --> 0:13:12.484
<v Speaker 1>think he checks back clubs on the on the flop,

0:13:12.604 --> 0:13:14.804
<v Speaker 1>but he could have a hand with one club. That

0:13:14.844 --> 0:13:18.164
<v Speaker 1>could be that could be drawing very live. But I

0:13:18.204 --> 0:13:21.084
<v Speaker 1>don't think he has two clubs in his hand. And

0:13:21.604 --> 0:13:24.764
<v Speaker 1>I am blocking the straight the not straight. But so

0:13:24.844 --> 0:13:27.484
<v Speaker 1>the queen is actually like not not a great card

0:13:27.564 --> 0:13:31.084
<v Speaker 1>for him when he checks when he checks back, the flop,

0:13:31.324 --> 0:13:33.204
<v Speaker 1>and so I decide to lead. So here I do

0:13:33.324 --> 0:13:35.724
<v Speaker 1>decide to lead, which I would actually do with a

0:13:35.724 --> 0:13:37.444
<v Speaker 1>lot of my flushes, because I have a lot of

0:13:37.444 --> 0:13:40.524
<v Speaker 1>flushes here, right, and and I do have straights here,

0:13:40.764 --> 0:13:42.964
<v Speaker 1>and I don't want and with the ten like I

0:13:42.964 --> 0:13:45.604
<v Speaker 1>could very well have jack ten. Now you know, I

0:13:45.924 --> 0:13:48.204
<v Speaker 1>don't want any more clubs to roll off. So I bet,

0:13:49.124 --> 0:13:53.724
<v Speaker 1>and I bet pretty small. And the reason I bet small,

0:13:53.764 --> 0:13:56.484
<v Speaker 1>by the way, was if you think of the stack sizes,

0:13:56.684 --> 0:13:58.804
<v Speaker 1>I will have a pot size bet left if he

0:13:58.844 --> 0:14:01.564
<v Speaker 1>calls on the river. And so that's a really good

0:14:03.004 --> 0:14:06.404
<v Speaker 1>ratio because I'll be able to shove for full pot

0:14:06.444 --> 0:14:07.764
<v Speaker 1>and I can, by the way, still improve.

0:14:07.924 --> 0:14:09.884
<v Speaker 3>He has some hands that just are gonna give up

0:14:09.844 --> 0:14:14.924
<v Speaker 3>pretty easily there, you know, ace jack without a flushtraw

0:14:15.084 --> 0:14:18.164
<v Speaker 3>or something like that or I don't know if that.

0:14:18.244 --> 0:14:21.324
<v Speaker 1>Podcast For that small Yeah, for that small size, I

0:14:21.324 --> 0:14:23.324
<v Speaker 1>can get a lot of hands that are doing better

0:14:23.364 --> 0:14:27.844
<v Speaker 1>than me right to fold, which is great. And if

0:14:27.844 --> 0:14:29.724
<v Speaker 1>he has a club, right, if he has the ace

0:14:29.764 --> 0:14:31.844
<v Speaker 1>of clubs in his hands, if he has the King

0:14:31.844 --> 0:14:33.764
<v Speaker 1>of club in his hands, he's never folding even to

0:14:33.804 --> 0:14:36.764
<v Speaker 1>a huge bed, right. So so I think that I'm

0:14:36.764 --> 0:14:39.884
<v Speaker 1>not accomplishing that much if I get bigger. And also

0:14:40.004 --> 0:14:42.164
<v Speaker 1>his hands that aren't very happy. I don't think he's

0:14:42.204 --> 0:14:45.804
<v Speaker 1>ever raising me with red aces right or red kings

0:14:46.724 --> 0:14:49.564
<v Speaker 1>because that board is just not a great board for

0:14:49.684 --> 0:14:54.124
<v Speaker 1>him to do that. So he calls and the river

0:14:54.244 --> 0:14:58.844
<v Speaker 1>comes a queen of spades, so pairs of boord So now.

0:14:59.124 --> 0:15:01.164
<v Speaker 2>Seven eight nine queen queen.

0:15:01.444 --> 0:15:04.764
<v Speaker 1>Yep, three clubs, two spades, and so at this point

0:15:04.764 --> 0:15:08.444
<v Speaker 1>I have king high, right, Yeah, I don't have much,

0:15:08.804 --> 0:15:13.644
<v Speaker 1>and the pot is huge, and there's no way if

0:15:13.644 --> 0:15:15.684
<v Speaker 1>I check, he's going to be checking back all of

0:15:15.724 --> 0:15:18.004
<v Speaker 1>his a's highs, like he's going to be so happy

0:15:18.044 --> 0:15:21.684
<v Speaker 1>to check that thing down. But if I bet, you know,

0:15:23.204 --> 0:15:27.084
<v Speaker 1>he might hero call with some pairs. You know, now

0:15:27.084 --> 0:15:29.804
<v Speaker 1>that the queen has paired, he might hero call some hands.

0:15:29.964 --> 0:15:31.644
<v Speaker 1>But if I shove, if I go all in for

0:15:31.684 --> 0:15:33.844
<v Speaker 1>the pot, that's a huge you know, that's a huge

0:15:33.844 --> 0:15:36.564
<v Speaker 1>percentage of his stack too. And if he calls and

0:15:36.724 --> 0:15:41.044
<v Speaker 1>is wrong, that's lights out for his stack. And he's

0:15:41.044 --> 0:15:42.644
<v Speaker 1>the chip leader of the table. He's not the chip

0:15:42.724 --> 0:15:44.684
<v Speaker 1>leader of the tournament, but he's the chip leader of

0:15:44.724 --> 0:15:46.284
<v Speaker 1>the table, and that's a great position to be in.

0:15:46.884 --> 0:15:47.844
<v Speaker 3>So I shove.

0:15:48.404 --> 0:15:51.604
<v Speaker 1>Because you know, after kind of thinking through my options,

0:15:51.684 --> 0:15:54.564
<v Speaker 1>I figured that I can, I can safely do that,

0:15:54.644 --> 0:15:57.244
<v Speaker 1>and I can represent a lot of strong hands that

0:15:57.284 --> 0:16:00.964
<v Speaker 1>he does not have. And by the way, when the

0:16:01.044 --> 0:16:05.004
<v Speaker 1>Queen of Spades and the Queen of Clubs are both

0:16:05.164 --> 0:16:08.324
<v Speaker 1>on the board, it's much less likely that he actually

0:16:08.404 --> 0:16:12.524
<v Speaker 1>hasn't Ace Queen or kin queen because the suited varieties

0:16:13.924 --> 0:16:17.004
<v Speaker 1>are are not there anymore for the ones that have

0:16:17.084 --> 0:16:17.764
<v Speaker 1>backdoor draws.

0:16:17.804 --> 0:16:19.524
<v Speaker 2>If he asked kid Queen, he might even fold it.

0:16:20.204 --> 0:16:25.324
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, absolutely, So I shoved and the guy so in retrospect,

0:16:25.364 --> 0:16:30.884
<v Speaker 1>shoving into a guy whose screen name is Japanese Ritualistics

0:16:31.044 --> 0:16:35.164
<v Speaker 1>suicide by disemvelopment might not have been my finest people

0:16:35.164 --> 0:16:38.404
<v Speaker 1>reading moment. But so he goes into the tank and

0:16:38.444 --> 0:16:40.444
<v Speaker 1>he starts running down his time bank, and I'm like,

0:16:40.484 --> 0:16:42.404
<v Speaker 1>oh fuck when they do that, right when they run

0:16:42.444 --> 0:16:44.004
<v Speaker 1>down the time bank like they're calling.

0:16:44.444 --> 0:16:46.204
<v Speaker 2>And then finally we have experience.

0:16:46.284 --> 0:16:48.724
<v Speaker 3>I find like people people like to fold to me

0:16:48.764 --> 0:16:50.364
<v Speaker 3>where they like to fold to you, though I feel

0:16:50.364 --> 0:16:50.644
<v Speaker 3>like and.

0:16:50.644 --> 0:16:53.124
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's probably true. Yeah, but he didn't know who

0:16:53.164 --> 0:16:57.684
<v Speaker 1>I was. So eventually he folds and with that hand,

0:16:57.764 --> 0:17:00.604
<v Speaker 1>I actually get the chip leader of the table and

0:17:01.364 --> 0:17:03.484
<v Speaker 1>that was huge for me. Right, I'm still not chip

0:17:03.564 --> 0:17:05.364
<v Speaker 1>leader of the tournament because all the chips are on

0:17:05.404 --> 0:17:09.844
<v Speaker 1>the other table, but but I now have the blade

0:17:10.084 --> 0:17:12.644
<v Speaker 1>because this bluff was able to get through. And by

0:17:12.644 --> 0:17:14.244
<v Speaker 1>the way, had he called, I would have been out

0:17:14.444 --> 0:17:16.964
<v Speaker 1>right because all of his pairs, even if he had

0:17:16.964 --> 0:17:18.924
<v Speaker 1>pocket deuces, they beat me.

0:17:19.364 --> 0:17:20.044
<v Speaker 2>His highs beat me.

0:17:20.324 --> 0:17:23.644
<v Speaker 1>Basically, I am losing to everything that we get there with.

0:17:24.884 --> 0:17:27.284
<v Speaker 1>And a few hands later, so at this point I

0:17:27.324 --> 0:17:30.044
<v Speaker 1>become the table chip. Later then I lose a few hands.

0:17:30.084 --> 0:17:34.164
<v Speaker 1>So the person to my direct right, so he's the

0:17:34.204 --> 0:17:36.844
<v Speaker 1>small blind when I'm the big blind now covers me

0:17:37.004 --> 0:17:40.044
<v Speaker 1>by a little bit, and a few hands later it

0:17:40.204 --> 0:17:45.044
<v Speaker 1>folds to us and he raises the small blind and

0:17:45.084 --> 0:17:49.124
<v Speaker 1>he raises big. He raises to four x, and I

0:17:49.244 --> 0:17:53.804
<v Speaker 1>happened to have Queen's in the big blind, and I

0:17:53.924 --> 0:17:57.564
<v Speaker 1>just and I at this point, I have thirty five

0:17:58.604 --> 0:18:01.324
<v Speaker 1>big blind something like that, thirty six, and I just

0:18:01.364 --> 0:18:05.444
<v Speaker 1>shove because you know, it puts max pressure on and

0:18:05.564 --> 0:18:07.844
<v Speaker 1>I don't mind just taking down that pot. And he

0:18:07.924 --> 0:18:11.524
<v Speaker 1>calls and he has nine, and that's very unfortunate. For

0:18:11.604 --> 0:18:14.804
<v Speaker 1>him blind versus blind, right, we both have legitimate hands,

0:18:15.804 --> 0:18:18.964
<v Speaker 1>and I hold, and that puts me into i think

0:18:19.044 --> 0:18:22.444
<v Speaker 1>third in chips in the in the tournament, and after that,

0:18:23.204 --> 0:18:27.204
<v Speaker 1>I you know, I went back and forth, but I

0:18:27.324 --> 0:18:29.444
<v Speaker 1>had a big stack and I did not have any

0:18:29.484 --> 0:18:34.564
<v Speaker 1>major losses and was able to eventually, yeah, win the tournament.

0:18:34.564 --> 0:18:36.724
<v Speaker 1>But I think that that was kind of that was

0:18:36.764 --> 0:18:40.324
<v Speaker 1>a that bluff. The fact that bluff went through was crucial.

0:18:40.444 --> 0:18:42.804
<v Speaker 1>And then having that Queen's hand after, you know, a

0:18:42.804 --> 0:18:45.964
<v Speaker 1>few hands later, I think was really important. So one

0:18:46.004 --> 0:18:48.884
<v Speaker 1>of those hands was skilled right the bluff, and the

0:18:48.924 --> 0:18:53.684
<v Speaker 1>other hand was pure luck because you know, it's it

0:18:53.764 --> 0:18:56.204
<v Speaker 1>was lucky for me that he had a legitimate hand

0:18:56.244 --> 0:18:58.924
<v Speaker 1>and that that legitimate hand wasn't kings or races.

0:18:59.284 --> 0:19:00.164
<v Speaker 2>I like nines.

0:19:01.604 --> 0:19:05.084
<v Speaker 1>I like nice too. I like nines too.

0:19:06.644 --> 0:19:09.364
<v Speaker 2>Have you processed it yet? I haven't.

0:19:09.484 --> 0:19:12.524
<v Speaker 1>I was very tired yesterday and I haven't really had

0:19:12.564 --> 0:19:14.764
<v Speaker 1>a chance to let it sink in. But you know,

0:19:14.804 --> 0:19:17.284
<v Speaker 1>it feels really nice. I think it's a big accomplishment

0:19:17.364 --> 0:19:19.364
<v Speaker 1>and I'm just going to be proud of it. God

0:19:19.404 --> 0:19:21.004
<v Speaker 1>damn it.

0:19:21.604 --> 0:19:24.164
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, you can't prove anyway. We're really proud of you, Maria.

0:19:24.284 --> 0:19:28.684
<v Speaker 3>The whole show is dunk in the audience. So congrats, thank.

0:19:28.484 --> 0:19:32.964
<v Speaker 1>You, thank you. I'm playing another event today, Oh jeez.

0:19:32.964 --> 0:19:35.804
<v Speaker 3>Okay, see that's kind of low key, Djen. I feel

0:19:35.804 --> 0:19:37.844
<v Speaker 3>like to like be like people do that, to be

0:19:37.844 --> 0:19:39.524
<v Speaker 3>like I just want a million dollars. I'm gonna jump

0:19:39.564 --> 0:19:41.924
<v Speaker 3>in this eight hundred dollars tournament if I want to

0:19:41.964 --> 0:19:42.524
<v Speaker 3>fuck embrace it.

0:19:42.964 --> 0:19:44.844
<v Speaker 2>Taking a few days off tell you.

0:19:44.804 --> 0:19:50.244
<v Speaker 1>That, Well, well, I'll be taking a few days off

0:19:50.284 --> 0:19:54.124
<v Speaker 1>after this because I'm leaving the lovely state of Nevada

0:19:55.004 --> 0:19:59.964
<v Speaker 1>and going to Miami. So so I'm not going to

0:20:00.004 --> 0:20:01.164
<v Speaker 1>be able to play poker there.

0:20:02.044 --> 0:20:03.804
<v Speaker 2>There is poker Miami, I'll have you know.

0:20:05.164 --> 0:20:07.804
<v Speaker 1>There is poker in Miami. But I will not be

0:20:07.844 --> 0:20:09.124
<v Speaker 1>playing poker in Miami.

0:20:10.724 --> 0:20:14.604
<v Speaker 2>Okay, well, congrets for me, and let's talk about nuclear war.

0:20:15.564 --> 0:20:19.444
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, after the break, nuclear war and other fun things.

0:20:35.364 --> 0:20:35.484
<v Speaker 2>Right.

0:20:35.604 --> 0:20:40.964
<v Speaker 1>So we are recording this on Tuesday, October fifteenth, and

0:20:41.404 --> 0:20:45.684
<v Speaker 1>this is the week after all of the Nobel Prizes

0:20:46.084 --> 0:20:50.484
<v Speaker 1>were awarded, and the one I want to talk about today, Nate, was,

0:20:50.764 --> 0:20:53.924
<v Speaker 1>you know, one of the biggest Nobel prizes that is

0:20:53.964 --> 0:20:56.604
<v Speaker 1>often could have awarded to make some sort of a statement.

0:20:57.084 --> 0:21:00.564
<v Speaker 1>And this is the Nobel Peace Prize, and this year

0:21:01.084 --> 0:21:06.244
<v Speaker 1>it went to an organization called Nihon Hidankyo, which is

0:21:06.644 --> 0:21:11.324
<v Speaker 1>an organization that was found in nineteen fifty six by

0:21:11.524 --> 0:21:18.524
<v Speaker 1>survivors of the atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. So

0:21:19.604 --> 0:21:24.324
<v Speaker 1>these are the Hibakusha that's the Japanese word for survivors,

0:21:24.724 --> 0:21:28.444
<v Speaker 1>and so ever since it's been founded, they've been working

0:21:28.844 --> 0:21:33.884
<v Speaker 1>towards a world basically where nuclear deterns, a strong nuclear disarmament,

0:21:34.684 --> 0:21:38.124
<v Speaker 1>and they've been trying to kind of enforce this nuclear

0:21:38.164 --> 0:21:42.164
<v Speaker 1>taboo right that you cannot use nuclear weapons. And so

0:21:42.284 --> 0:21:45.524
<v Speaker 1>it means something that after all this time, that they

0:21:45.924 --> 0:21:51.484
<v Speaker 1>were awarded the Nobel Prize this year, And so I

0:21:51.564 --> 0:21:54.604
<v Speaker 1>want to first I'd love to hear your reaction. Then

0:21:54.644 --> 0:21:56.804
<v Speaker 1>I wanted to talk about, you know, why now and

0:21:56.964 --> 0:21:59.684
<v Speaker 1>why it's so important now that you know, these survivors

0:21:59.684 --> 0:22:02.524
<v Speaker 1>are in their eighties and there aren't very many of

0:22:02.564 --> 0:22:05.764
<v Speaker 1>them left, why it's so important that a group like

0:22:05.804 --> 0:22:10.724
<v Speaker 1>this actually be honored and what they're fighting for kind

0:22:10.724 --> 0:22:13.124
<v Speaker 1>of be brought to the public consciousness.

0:22:13.724 --> 0:22:16.564
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it was an interesting set of Nobel Prizes in general.

0:22:17.204 --> 0:22:20.164
<v Speaker 3>There were some ai related words too.

0:22:21.804 --> 0:22:22.724
<v Speaker 2>Look, I think you kind of.

0:22:22.684 --> 0:22:24.884
<v Speaker 3>Answered the question, which is that you're losing the generational

0:22:24.884 --> 0:22:27.884
<v Speaker 3>memory the only time that nuclear weapons were used in combat,

0:22:27.884 --> 0:22:31.964
<v Speaker 3>which is by the United States on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

0:22:33.724 --> 0:22:35.124
<v Speaker 2>And you know.

0:22:35.124 --> 0:22:38.364
<v Speaker 3>People at the time van Neuman, who was one of

0:22:38.404 --> 0:22:41.204
<v Speaker 3>the kind of founders of game theory and worked on

0:22:41.204 --> 0:22:44.324
<v Speaker 3>a Manhattan project, they all kind of assume we're all

0:22:44.364 --> 0:22:48.924
<v Speaker 3>going to die in like twenty or thirty years. You know,

0:22:49.044 --> 0:22:51.044
<v Speaker 3>a nuclear attack would be very bad. The bombs have

0:22:51.084 --> 0:22:53.724
<v Speaker 3>only gotten more powerful. You know, what was it where

0:22:54.244 --> 0:22:57.204
<v Speaker 3>during the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union were,

0:22:58.444 --> 0:23:02.764
<v Speaker 3>you know, developing tens of thousands of these. In fact,

0:23:02.844 --> 0:23:07.524
<v Speaker 3>some people like von Neumann kind of half seriously proposed

0:23:07.524 --> 0:23:11.004
<v Speaker 3>a preemptive strike on the USSR to prevent them from

0:23:11.084 --> 0:23:14.724
<v Speaker 3>having the bomb. You know, other people wanted to share

0:23:14.724 --> 0:23:18.164
<v Speaker 3>the technology more widely, but it seemed like a very

0:23:18.244 --> 0:23:21.644
<v Speaker 3>dangerous thing. And if you had asked somebody what are

0:23:21.644 --> 0:23:24.444
<v Speaker 3>the odds this would be the last nuclear usage for

0:23:24.484 --> 0:23:28.484
<v Speaker 3>the next seventy nine years, I'm not sure what odds

0:23:28.484 --> 0:23:30.564
<v Speaker 3>it would have given you. Right in the Cuban missile crisis,

0:23:30.644 --> 0:23:34.564
<v Speaker 3>Kennedy thought that we had between one and three and

0:23:34.684 --> 0:23:37.044
<v Speaker 3>one and two, so thirty three to fifty percent chance

0:23:37.084 --> 0:23:39.044
<v Speaker 3>of that conflict turning nuclear.

0:23:39.084 --> 0:23:42.004
<v Speaker 2>There have been accidents before. I mean, the whole concept

0:23:42.084 --> 0:23:42.604
<v Speaker 2>is a little.

0:23:42.444 --> 0:23:47.764
<v Speaker 3>Bit screwy, right, well, because like, if you're unwilling to

0:23:47.884 --> 0:23:53.764
<v Speaker 3>use weapons, then they don't create a current, right, But

0:23:53.844 --> 0:23:55.644
<v Speaker 3>if you are willing to use them, then that's a

0:23:55.684 --> 0:23:59.004
<v Speaker 3>real risk, and then the risk of accidents. You know,

0:23:59.044 --> 0:24:03.124
<v Speaker 3>Thomas Shelling talked about the threat that leaves something to chance.

0:24:03.084 --> 0:24:06.484
<v Speaker 1>To chance yet and by the way, Thomas Shelling also

0:24:06.524 --> 0:24:09.324
<v Speaker 1>won a Nobel Prize for that work. So since we're

0:24:09.404 --> 0:24:11.724
<v Speaker 1>talking about Nobel prizes, let's let's call that out yep.

0:24:12.404 --> 0:24:15.484
<v Speaker 3>So yeah, look, you know there is a lot of

0:24:15.524 --> 0:24:17.404
<v Speaker 3>discussion now, including on the show in a couple of

0:24:17.404 --> 0:24:22.124
<v Speaker 3>segments on P doom, probability of doom, really bad shit happening,

0:24:22.204 --> 0:24:30.924
<v Speaker 3>everyone blowing up because of runaway misalign artificial intelligence. You know,

0:24:31.004 --> 0:24:34.044
<v Speaker 3>nuclear war risk was the original P doom in the

0:24:34.084 --> 0:24:37.564
<v Speaker 3>sense that it was the first technology that had the

0:24:37.604 --> 0:24:40.964
<v Speaker 3>potential to wipe out all of civilization potentially a threshold

0:24:41.004 --> 0:24:45.924
<v Speaker 3>moment that the world kind of can't undo anymore. And

0:24:45.964 --> 0:24:47.684
<v Speaker 3>I wonder I people have gotten a little bit complacent

0:24:47.764 --> 0:24:50.124
<v Speaker 3>about the risk. The number of nuclear states is proliferating.

0:24:51.244 --> 0:24:54.084
<v Speaker 3>You know, North Korea, you know, I know who officially

0:24:54.084 --> 0:24:56.404
<v Speaker 3>says they have what, but you know, North Korea has

0:24:57.484 --> 0:25:00.004
<v Speaker 3>the bomb. Now, maybe not the best bombs, but you know,

0:25:00.124 --> 0:25:03.724
<v Speaker 3>probably got a couple of bombs, but he bomb. Iran

0:25:04.764 --> 0:25:09.164
<v Speaker 3>has been trying to develop nuclear weapons in the Middle East.

0:25:09.164 --> 0:25:12.044
<v Speaker 3>That's a hot bit obviously of problems right now. And

0:25:13.244 --> 0:25:15.924
<v Speaker 3>Israel has this practice of strategic ambiguity, so if you

0:25:16.004 --> 0:25:19.204
<v Speaker 3>ask them, they'll say, ah, nuclear weapons, we never heard

0:25:19.204 --> 0:25:23.844
<v Speaker 3>of them. But clearly part of their deterrence is based

0:25:23.844 --> 0:25:28.284
<v Speaker 3>on the ultimate threat that they might have. And Ukraine, right,

0:25:28.324 --> 0:25:32.604
<v Speaker 3>I mean, you know, one fortunate thing about the theater

0:25:32.684 --> 0:25:35.924
<v Speaker 3>of conflict in Ukraine is that if you were to

0:25:35.964 --> 0:25:38.284
<v Speaker 3>have a nuclear weapon detonated, their dirty bomb or whatever,

0:25:38.604 --> 0:25:41.684
<v Speaker 3>it would potentially blow if trailing winds are east into Russia,

0:25:41.724 --> 0:25:45.524
<v Speaker 3>it would create fallout contamination over Russia. So it's a

0:25:45.524 --> 0:25:50.844
<v Speaker 3>little bit suicidal to do that potentially. Yeah, I mean, look,

0:25:50.844 --> 0:25:51.964
<v Speaker 3>this shit's serious.

0:25:52.604 --> 0:25:54.324
<v Speaker 1>It is serious. And by the way, kind of the

0:25:54.324 --> 0:25:58.364
<v Speaker 1>fallowout risk to Russia, we saw that happen during Chernobyl, right,

0:25:58.484 --> 0:26:00.564
<v Speaker 1>like it depends on what the wind conditions are. But

0:26:01.724 --> 0:26:04.004
<v Speaker 1>that was not a nuclear bomb. That was just a

0:26:04.484 --> 0:26:09.284
<v Speaker 1>that was just an accident, and that is absolutely a

0:26:09.524 --> 0:26:13.164
<v Speaker 1>very real thing. Yeah, this shit is really really serious.

0:26:14.084 --> 0:26:17.684
<v Speaker 1>And you know, I think that one of the really

0:26:17.724 --> 0:26:20.804
<v Speaker 1>important things that the Noble Committee tried to do was

0:26:21.084 --> 0:26:24.764
<v Speaker 1>kind of try to re up this historic memory that's

0:26:24.844 --> 0:26:28.324
<v Speaker 1>dying out, because people who are survivors of World War

0:26:28.364 --> 0:26:32.364
<v Speaker 1>Two in general, you know, are dying, right. We're living

0:26:32.404 --> 0:26:35.564
<v Speaker 1>with kind of the the end of that generation. And

0:26:36.124 --> 0:26:38.804
<v Speaker 1>you see, and I think that this is you know,

0:26:38.884 --> 0:26:41.564
<v Speaker 1>this is a trend all over the world. It's not

0:26:41.684 --> 0:26:44.404
<v Speaker 1>just kind of nuclear threat. But you see people who

0:26:44.404 --> 0:26:46.884
<v Speaker 1>are like, oh, well, maybe the Holocaust never even happened, right,

0:26:46.964 --> 0:26:50.404
<v Speaker 1>like the Holocaust denihilism. People are like, oh, prove it, right,

0:26:50.484 --> 0:26:52.924
<v Speaker 1>prove that this happened. Oh it wasn't so bad. Like

0:26:53.724 --> 0:26:57.484
<v Speaker 1>people forgetting like what an absolute horror this was. And

0:26:58.164 --> 0:27:01.884
<v Speaker 1>now you have Vladimir Putin the threatening saying, oh, you know,

0:27:02.004 --> 0:27:04.644
<v Speaker 1>like I want to make this nuclear threat real. And

0:27:04.684 --> 0:27:08.564
<v Speaker 1>what people don't, you know, tend to like gloss over

0:27:08.604 --> 0:27:11.884
<v Speaker 1>and Thomas Shelling's work is that, you know, in his

0:27:12.124 --> 0:27:15.444
<v Speaker 1>very famous example of the game of chicken, right, where

0:27:15.524 --> 0:27:19.124
<v Speaker 1>you have two cars going head to head right, and

0:27:19.204 --> 0:27:21.004
<v Speaker 1>you have to be the second. You have to not

0:27:21.084 --> 0:27:23.284
<v Speaker 1>swerve right, you want the other guy to swerve. That's

0:27:23.404 --> 0:27:25.524
<v Speaker 1>the only way that you win. He says that, you know,

0:27:25.564 --> 0:27:27.564
<v Speaker 1>the way that you win is you rip out your

0:27:27.644 --> 0:27:31.044
<v Speaker 1>steering wheel and you throw it out the window. Because

0:27:31.044 --> 0:27:33.444
<v Speaker 1>that's a credible commitment. Now they know, right, you can't

0:27:33.444 --> 0:27:36.284
<v Speaker 1>swerve like there's not so they have to. But what

0:27:36.444 --> 0:27:40.084
<v Speaker 1>happens if both people do that at the exact same

0:27:40.124 --> 0:27:44.084
<v Speaker 1>time and throw their steering wheels out the window? They die?

0:27:44.204 --> 0:27:48.444
<v Speaker 3>Right, And it's a lot of Doctor Strangelove too, yeah,

0:27:49.044 --> 0:27:52.524
<v Speaker 3>which is, according to some experts, a parody of Vnoyman.

0:27:53.924 --> 0:27:56.404
<v Speaker 2>But so yeah.

0:27:56.524 --> 0:27:59.644
<v Speaker 3>What they wanted was a machine that would automatically retaliate

0:28:00.084 --> 0:28:02.404
<v Speaker 3>if it detected an attack. Because even if you therefore

0:28:02.444 --> 0:28:05.604
<v Speaker 3>incapacitate the state, this is the one out to mutual

0:28:05.644 --> 0:28:06.364
<v Speaker 3>assured destruction.

0:28:06.444 --> 0:28:06.564
<v Speaker 1>Right.

0:28:06.564 --> 0:28:09.204
<v Speaker 3>If you can destroy all their facilities before they have

0:28:09.404 --> 0:28:13.364
<v Speaker 3>answer retally, before they can decide, then.

0:28:13.324 --> 0:28:14.364
<v Speaker 2>You can do a first strike.

0:28:14.524 --> 0:28:16.684
<v Speaker 3>Right. This is partly why there are so many different

0:28:16.884 --> 0:28:21.404
<v Speaker 3>nuclear triad, air, sea, space, et cetera. You want to

0:28:21.404 --> 0:28:27.084
<v Speaker 3>make it impossible to do it incapacitation strike. So yeah,

0:28:27.084 --> 0:28:30.004
<v Speaker 3>the doomsday machine would have launched back automatically, and so

0:28:31.604 --> 0:28:33.044
<v Speaker 3>you know, look, I mean the one thing I'll say

0:28:33.204 --> 0:28:37.644
<v Speaker 3>is like it's another example of where game theory kind

0:28:37.644 --> 0:28:41.364
<v Speaker 3>of has worked pretty well in the real world. I

0:28:41.364 --> 0:28:44.484
<v Speaker 3>think there's also a lot of there's also a lot

0:28:44.484 --> 0:28:47.444
<v Speaker 3>of back channeling. I think with this stuff, it's a

0:28:47.564 --> 0:28:51.124
<v Speaker 3>very coordinated dance about like what exactly are you saying,

0:28:51.204 --> 0:28:53.124
<v Speaker 3>which maybe it should make you feel better, is that, like,

0:28:54.644 --> 0:28:56.044
<v Speaker 3>you know, there are the red.

0:28:55.844 --> 0:28:57.084
<v Speaker 2>Phone, so to speak.

0:28:57.084 --> 0:28:58.924
<v Speaker 3>I don't know if there's literally a red phone anymore, right,

0:28:58.964 --> 0:29:02.684
<v Speaker 3>but like all these things exist for a reason.

0:29:03.684 --> 0:29:06.324
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, but I do want to you know, there was

0:29:06.364 --> 0:29:08.924
<v Speaker 1>something else that you said, which I think is important,

0:29:08.964 --> 0:29:11.524
<v Speaker 1>and I'll so kind of the other element of the

0:29:11.564 --> 0:29:15.084
<v Speaker 1>Doctor strangel Of thing is that accidents happen, right, and

0:29:15.324 --> 0:29:18.324
<v Speaker 1>if you don't have a human on the other side.

0:29:18.324 --> 0:29:21.564
<v Speaker 1>And this actually this is where also that p doomes

0:29:21.604 --> 0:29:26.884
<v Speaker 1>of nuclear war and AI kind of are dovetailing, right,

0:29:26.924 --> 0:29:29.124
<v Speaker 1>and one feeds into the other as you kind of

0:29:29.564 --> 0:29:33.724
<v Speaker 1>seed control automation decisions, et cetera. I want to just

0:29:34.324 --> 0:29:40.364
<v Speaker 1>shout out Stanislav Petrov, who was a lieutenant colonel in

0:29:40.444 --> 0:29:45.564
<v Speaker 1>the Soviet Air Defense and he basically single handedly prevented

0:29:45.604 --> 0:29:48.044
<v Speaker 1>nuclear war in nineteen eighty three when there was a

0:29:48.044 --> 0:29:52.884
<v Speaker 1>false signal that the US was attacking the Soviet Union

0:29:53.324 --> 0:29:57.084
<v Speaker 1>and his decision, he decided, you know, he couldn't reach anyone,

0:29:57.324 --> 0:30:00.524
<v Speaker 1>so like, it's plausible that there could have been some

0:30:00.564 --> 0:30:05.204
<v Speaker 1>sort of retaliatory strike, and he decided that this was

0:30:05.324 --> 0:30:08.764
<v Speaker 1>a mistake, that this was there was not actually a strike,

0:30:08.804 --> 0:30:11.804
<v Speaker 1>and he made the decision to cancel the launch and

0:30:11.844 --> 0:30:14.404
<v Speaker 1>to not launch nuclear weapons. Now he was right, right,

0:30:14.484 --> 0:30:18.604
<v Speaker 1>it was actually a glitch. There was no nuclear attack

0:30:18.644 --> 0:30:20.884
<v Speaker 1>against the Soviet Union. But now imagine that it was

0:30:20.884 --> 0:30:23.404
<v Speaker 1>someone else, right, and imagine that there was someone who

0:30:23.404 --> 0:30:26.724
<v Speaker 1>didn't kind of have the guts to make that sort

0:30:26.764 --> 0:30:30.804
<v Speaker 1>of decision, or imagine that it was an AI And we,

0:30:31.604 --> 0:30:33.644
<v Speaker 1>you know, we we're living in a very different world,

0:30:33.724 --> 0:30:36.524
<v Speaker 1>or not living in any world, because then Soviet Union

0:30:36.604 --> 0:30:40.444
<v Speaker 1>actually physically launches nuclear weapons. Obviously, then the United States

0:30:40.524 --> 0:30:44.724
<v Speaker 1>retaliate's and you know, I don't think even uh yeah,

0:30:44.924 --> 0:30:47.804
<v Speaker 1>cluster fuck scenes a little bit two week of a

0:30:47.844 --> 0:30:51.924
<v Speaker 1>phrase for that, But we're not living in a very

0:30:52.244 --> 0:30:56.844
<v Speaker 1>happy place, and I think that it's really important to

0:30:56.884 --> 0:30:59.924
<v Speaker 1>remember moments like that as well, as we think about

0:30:59.964 --> 0:31:02.924
<v Speaker 1>p doom, as we think about nuclear determs, as we

0:31:03.004 --> 0:31:06.924
<v Speaker 1>think about the taboo on using nuclear weapons. These are

0:31:06.964 --> 0:31:12.004
<v Speaker 1>all really important questions, and the world is forgetting and

0:31:12.844 --> 0:31:15.564
<v Speaker 1>not just forgetting, but saying, oh fuck it. You know,

0:31:15.604 --> 0:31:18.124
<v Speaker 1>there are lots of things going on right now that

0:31:18.164 --> 0:31:21.164
<v Speaker 1>make it a pretty dangerous moment. So so I think

0:31:21.204 --> 0:31:24.524
<v Speaker 1>that it's really crucial to have these conversations and to

0:31:24.804 --> 0:31:27.124
<v Speaker 1>try to employ game theory so that we don't all

0:31:27.324 --> 0:31:28.844
<v Speaker 1>you kill kill each other.

0:31:30.564 --> 0:31:32.884
<v Speaker 2>Do you think Trump would increase or decrease a chance

0:31:32.924 --> 0:31:34.004
<v Speaker 2>of a nuclear conflict.

0:31:36.004 --> 0:31:38.364
<v Speaker 1>I think that's a I'm not sure. I think that

0:31:38.524 --> 0:31:42.884
<v Speaker 1>he would probably. It's funny because I think back to Khrushchev, right,

0:31:43.284 --> 0:31:47.124
<v Speaker 1>We've talked about the Cuban missile crisis, and I think

0:31:47.244 --> 0:31:49.924
<v Speaker 1>one of the reasons that Kennedy thought that the risk

0:31:50.044 --> 0:31:54.604
<v Speaker 1>of nuclear war was so high was because Khrushchev was

0:31:54.804 --> 0:32:00.404
<v Speaker 1>fucking insane, like people he could he didn't you know,

0:32:00.684 --> 0:32:03.884
<v Speaker 1>people didn't know what might happen, and that was but

0:32:03.924 --> 0:32:06.604
<v Speaker 1>that was always kind of part of it. Wasn't just him,

0:32:06.964 --> 0:32:12.604
<v Speaker 1>right all of the Soviet leaders. They tried to cultivate

0:32:12.844 --> 0:32:16.484
<v Speaker 1>that insanity on purpose, because if I'm crazy and you

0:32:16.524 --> 0:32:19.924
<v Speaker 1>don't know what I'm capable of, then you have to

0:32:19.964 --> 0:32:23.204
<v Speaker 1>tread carefully. And I think Trump is crazy in that sense, right,

0:32:23.244 --> 0:32:25.364
<v Speaker 1>you don't know what he's capable of. I think he's

0:32:25.444 --> 0:32:30.084
<v Speaker 1>much more capable of using nuclear weapons than Kamala Harris

0:32:30.084 --> 0:32:35.084
<v Speaker 1>would be, or basically than anyone else. But I don't

0:32:35.124 --> 0:32:38.204
<v Speaker 1>know if having him in power would deter other countries

0:32:38.244 --> 0:32:40.924
<v Speaker 1>because they're scared of him. So I think on the

0:32:40.964 --> 0:32:44.404
<v Speaker 1>margin it would probably my pedom would probably go up.

0:32:44.804 --> 0:32:46.444
<v Speaker 1>So do you have a do you have a point

0:32:46.444 --> 0:32:46.764
<v Speaker 1>of view?

0:32:49.404 --> 0:32:53.084
<v Speaker 3>I think he might lower it slightly, interesting because I

0:32:53.084 --> 0:32:57.084
<v Speaker 3>think he he does create a little bit more of

0:32:57.124 --> 0:33:00.084
<v Speaker 3>a deterrent potentially. I don't think he's I don't think

0:33:00.084 --> 0:33:03.804
<v Speaker 3>he's warmongering, actually, right, I think he's crazy in lots

0:33:03.804 --> 0:33:06.644
<v Speaker 3>of ways. I don't think that's the way in which

0:33:06.644 --> 0:33:08.764
<v Speaker 3>she used crazy, And yeah, I don't know.

0:33:09.724 --> 0:33:11.604
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I just don't know that we know the ways

0:33:11.644 --> 0:33:13.684
<v Speaker 1>in which he is crazy. And he's you know, and

0:33:13.724 --> 0:33:15.964
<v Speaker 1>he's getting on in years, and I think that there

0:33:16.084 --> 0:33:18.924
<v Speaker 1>is you know, and he's ranting. I think there is

0:33:18.964 --> 0:33:22.004
<v Speaker 1>some kind of threat to personality change that comes with

0:33:22.084 --> 0:33:24.884
<v Speaker 1>dimension and age and all of these things. So I

0:33:24.964 --> 0:33:27.284
<v Speaker 1>just don't know. Right This is not something where I

0:33:27.284 --> 0:33:28.964
<v Speaker 1>can give you a clear cut answer, as I've said,

0:33:29.044 --> 0:33:31.524
<v Speaker 1>but I think it's interesting to consider, and I think

0:33:31.524 --> 0:33:35.004
<v Speaker 1>that in general, the threat of nuclear war has probably

0:33:35.084 --> 0:33:38.764
<v Speaker 1>gone up in much more in the last few years

0:33:39.084 --> 0:33:40.644
<v Speaker 1>that it has in a very long time.

0:33:43.484 --> 0:33:45.164
<v Speaker 3>Speaking of Trump, you want to talk a little bit

0:33:45.204 --> 0:33:46.884
<v Speaker 3>of politics.

0:33:46.604 --> 0:34:02.924
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, let's do that after the break. Name all right,

0:34:03.524 --> 0:34:06.644
<v Speaker 1>last time we spoke last week, Nate, you said that

0:34:06.684 --> 0:34:09.364
<v Speaker 1>there really hadn't been many quality polls that had come out.

0:34:10.084 --> 0:34:11.884
<v Speaker 1>This was kind of the first. That was the first

0:34:11.884 --> 0:34:14.724
<v Speaker 1>week after the vice presidential debate, which you know what

0:34:14.804 --> 0:34:17.884
<v Speaker 1>vice presidential debate. I think at this point everyone forgot

0:34:18.244 --> 0:34:21.164
<v Speaker 1>that that even happened. But there have been some more

0:34:21.244 --> 0:34:23.764
<v Speaker 1>higher quality polls that have come out in the intrum.

0:34:24.124 --> 0:34:27.564
<v Speaker 1>So so let's let's talk through it, and let's talk

0:34:27.684 --> 0:34:31.164
<v Speaker 1>through kind of the current state of the election.

0:34:32.524 --> 0:34:38.564
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so we're taping this FI on Tuesday, October fifteenth.

0:34:39.124 --> 0:34:42.564
<v Speaker 3>I have not run the model update for the day.

0:34:42.644 --> 0:34:44.044
<v Speaker 3>I'm going to do that as soon as we get

0:34:44.044 --> 0:34:49.124
<v Speaker 3>a break Harris as a last night's model run. Yes,

0:34:49.164 --> 0:34:52.524
<v Speaker 3>the afternoons fifty chance of winning Trump at forty eight

0:34:52.524 --> 0:34:54.724
<v Speaker 3>point seven up to one hundred, because there's an zero

0:34:54.764 --> 0:34:59.644
<v Speaker 3>point three percent chance of a tie. I wonder with

0:34:59.684 --> 0:35:02.324
<v Speaker 3>every update if Harris is going to dip under fifty percent, Like,

0:35:02.364 --> 0:35:04.244
<v Speaker 3>not that it really matter. It's not that forty nine

0:35:04.924 --> 0:35:08.404
<v Speaker 3>versus fifty one or magically that different. But you know,

0:35:08.524 --> 0:35:11.404
<v Speaker 3>you've seen you've had a slightly good week of polling

0:35:11.484 --> 0:35:14.924
<v Speaker 3>for for Trump, right where this two point lead that

0:35:14.964 --> 0:35:17.524
<v Speaker 3>Harris had and kind of Michigan, pennsylvani Wisconsin's kind of

0:35:17.524 --> 0:35:20.964
<v Speaker 3>turned into like a one point lead or a five

0:35:21.004 --> 0:35:22.724
<v Speaker 3>tenths of a point lead, and that's just not a

0:35:22.804 --> 0:35:26.044
<v Speaker 3>very safe position. But like all seven of the closest

0:35:26.044 --> 0:35:30.044
<v Speaker 3>states remain within a point, and you know, and sub level,

0:35:30.044 --> 0:35:33.084
<v Speaker 3>I'm not sure what more there is to be sad

0:35:33.204 --> 0:35:35.724
<v Speaker 3>apart from like it seems like we're locked into like

0:35:36.724 --> 0:35:40.484
<v Speaker 3>a very close election where you won't know, we won't

0:35:40.524 --> 0:35:42.084
<v Speaker 3>know much in the morning, we may not know much

0:35:42.084 --> 0:35:43.444
<v Speaker 3>in the evening. I mean, look, there is a chance

0:35:43.484 --> 0:35:45.164
<v Speaker 3>that the polls are all off in the same direction,

0:35:46.924 --> 0:35:49.444
<v Speaker 3>so uncertain is not quite the same thing as guaranteeing

0:35:49.484 --> 0:35:50.204
<v Speaker 3>a close election.

0:35:52.124 --> 0:35:55.204
<v Speaker 2>But it you know, I mean, keep listening to podcast

0:35:55.284 --> 0:35:55.764
<v Speaker 2>folks and.

0:35:55.724 --> 0:35:58.564
<v Speaker 3>Reading the newsletter, but like, like, how much more are

0:35:58.604 --> 0:36:00.404
<v Speaker 3>you learning from the polls at this point?

0:36:00.964 --> 0:36:02.004
<v Speaker 2>All they're really saying is.

0:36:01.964 --> 0:36:04.604
<v Speaker 3>Just it's just the average of the past two elections anyway, right,

0:36:04.644 --> 0:36:06.964
<v Speaker 3>So I'm not sure we're learning all that much.

0:36:08.124 --> 0:36:12.124
<v Speaker 1>I have a question for you know, so relatively good

0:36:12.164 --> 0:36:15.364
<v Speaker 1>week of calling for Trump, Harris still ahead in your model,

0:36:15.804 --> 0:36:19.524
<v Speaker 1>why does polymarket currently have Trump at fifty eight percent

0:36:19.684 --> 0:36:24.084
<v Speaker 1>to Harris's forty one percent. That's a huge Like, that's

0:36:24.124 --> 0:36:26.484
<v Speaker 1>a huge difference. What's going on?

0:36:28.284 --> 0:36:34.884
<v Speaker 3>So what you had last week was some whale activity?

0:36:35.164 --> 0:36:39.564
<v Speaker 3>You know, what makes a gambling world work? Are whales?

0:36:40.324 --> 0:36:45.564
<v Speaker 3>Whales are rich people who are degenerates, often bad at

0:36:46.524 --> 0:36:48.644
<v Speaker 3>their chosen craft, don't. I mean the term whales a

0:36:48.644 --> 0:36:50.804
<v Speaker 3>little bit ambiguous, Like in crypto at refers to someone

0:36:50.804 --> 0:36:56.044
<v Speaker 3>who who was potentially a smart, very wealthy trader, but

0:36:56.164 --> 0:37:01.844
<v Speaker 3>generally the connotation is that you're a degenerate gambler who

0:37:01.924 --> 0:37:03.404
<v Speaker 3>makes a lot of money for the casinos or for

0:37:03.444 --> 0:37:08.204
<v Speaker 3>the house. So Elon Musk last week began tweeting about Polymarket,

0:37:08.204 --> 0:37:12.404
<v Speaker 3>where I should run people that I paid advisor and

0:37:13.004 --> 0:37:16.924
<v Speaker 3>that moved the numbers without any real underlying justification from

0:37:16.964 --> 0:37:20.244
<v Speaker 3>the polling data that day. And you can tell because

0:37:20.804 --> 0:37:22.524
<v Speaker 3>there are a couple of things that were unusual. One

0:37:22.564 --> 0:37:25.164
<v Speaker 3>was that you didn't actually see any shift in the

0:37:25.164 --> 0:37:28.044
<v Speaker 3>popular vote contract. It was just the electoral college, the

0:37:28.124 --> 0:37:30.924
<v Speaker 3>higher profile one. But a smart trader would be looking

0:37:31.004 --> 0:37:33.684
<v Speaker 3>if there's a shift toward Trump, that would manifest itself

0:37:33.684 --> 0:37:35.844
<v Speaker 3>in all the markets, and not just the electoral College

0:37:35.844 --> 0:37:39.644
<v Speaker 3>overall market. But it's a lot of activity from a

0:37:39.684 --> 0:37:43.164
<v Speaker 3>relatively small number of traders. Now, since then, our model

0:37:43.204 --> 0:37:47.204
<v Speaker 3>and other models, more actually our model than others, have

0:37:47.244 --> 0:37:50.324
<v Speaker 3>shifted a bit toward Trump. Right, So it's like fifty

0:37:50.364 --> 0:37:52.284
<v Speaker 3>one percent. I mean it had been as high as

0:37:52.284 --> 0:37:55.124
<v Speaker 3>fifty eight percent for Harris in September twenty seventh. So

0:37:55.324 --> 0:37:57.244
<v Speaker 3>Trump has gained a little bit. But there's also this

0:37:57.324 --> 0:38:04.284
<v Speaker 3>like disproportionate amount of nervous panic among Democrats. They kind

0:38:04.324 --> 0:38:07.684
<v Speaker 3>of feel like Kamala Harris has lost the plot, and

0:38:07.724 --> 0:38:10.684
<v Speaker 3>Democrats are perpetually worried anyway, although maybe they should be, right.

0:38:10.684 --> 0:38:12.404
<v Speaker 3>I mean, like you know, look, if it's fifty to fifty,

0:38:12.444 --> 0:38:16.164
<v Speaker 3>then you know, a coin flip for very high stakes

0:38:16.284 --> 0:38:20.164
<v Speaker 3>is more than non degenerate gamblers usually want to undertake

0:38:20.284 --> 0:38:22.044
<v Speaker 3>risk wise, and there's.

0:38:21.844 --> 0:38:26.164
<v Speaker 2>No safe path for either candidate anymore.

0:38:26.684 --> 0:38:28.684
<v Speaker 3>There's not going to be any security unless there's some

0:38:29.324 --> 0:38:32.004
<v Speaker 3>really surprising development, and we're running out of time for

0:38:32.004 --> 0:38:32.564
<v Speaker 3>that to happen.

0:38:33.604 --> 0:38:37.764
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and you know, it's clear that the Democrats are

0:38:37.804 --> 0:38:42.044
<v Speaker 1>really taking this seriously. You have former President Barack Obama

0:38:42.164 --> 0:38:47.124
<v Speaker 1>campaigning for Kamalla Harrison Pennsylvania. Maybe they're now maybe maybe

0:38:47.124 --> 0:38:51.604
<v Speaker 1>they're no regretting the decision to not have Shiro on

0:38:51.644 --> 0:38:57.164
<v Speaker 1>the ticket because because they're Yeah, we've already we've we've

0:38:57.204 --> 0:39:00.764
<v Speaker 1>talked about this ad nauseum. But you know, they're trying,

0:39:00.804 --> 0:39:02.924
<v Speaker 1>they're trying to do everything they can, like Obama is

0:39:02.964 --> 0:39:05.204
<v Speaker 1>one of their big guns, and we can you know,

0:39:05.284 --> 0:39:08.444
<v Speaker 1>this is another segment, but we can talk a little

0:39:08.484 --> 0:39:11.284
<v Speaker 1>bit about like whether you know his messaging is effective,

0:39:11.404 --> 0:39:13.884
<v Speaker 1>like what's happening. But I think there is some panic there.

0:39:13.924 --> 0:39:17.644
<v Speaker 1>There's some panic that she's losing the black vote, and like.

0:39:17.604 --> 0:39:20.844
<v Speaker 3>All of these things, losing doing less well. So the

0:39:20.844 --> 0:39:24.004
<v Speaker 3>New York Times pool, Trump is yes, fifteen percent of

0:39:24.004 --> 0:39:27.844
<v Speaker 3>the Black vote, fairly undecided's among black voters, but doing

0:39:27.964 --> 0:39:29.644
<v Speaker 3>less well the Democrat typically does.

0:39:29.884 --> 0:39:32.684
<v Speaker 1>Yes, that was that was very poorly stated on my

0:39:32.884 --> 0:39:35.684
<v Speaker 1>on my side, yes, not losing the black vote, but

0:39:35.884 --> 0:39:40.084
<v Speaker 1>doing relatively less well. And in states like Pennsylvania, every

0:39:40.124 --> 0:39:42.324
<v Speaker 1>single point matters, right, Like we have talked about this

0:39:42.524 --> 0:39:45.884
<v Speaker 1>over and over, like this is a close election. Everything matters,

0:39:45.964 --> 0:39:50.764
<v Speaker 1>Undecided voters matter, and yeah, people are clearly taking it seriously.

0:39:50.804 --> 0:39:52.644
<v Speaker 1>And you know, on the one hand, you have Elon

0:39:52.764 --> 0:39:55.324
<v Speaker 1>Musk jumping up and down on stage. On the other hand,

0:39:55.404 --> 0:39:56.924
<v Speaker 1>you have Barack Obama.

0:39:57.844 --> 0:40:02.764
<v Speaker 3>Good, I know, man, I know, he's got a little

0:40:02.804 --> 0:40:03.484
<v Speaker 3>high off of fumes.

0:40:03.524 --> 0:40:04.764
<v Speaker 2>Their good old Eelane.

0:40:05.884 --> 0:40:12.924
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, like don't you understand that politics kind of cringe,

0:40:13.044 --> 0:40:17.444
<v Speaker 3>you know anyway, But like I think people tend to

0:40:19.204 --> 0:40:21.404
<v Speaker 3>read these things like, oh, Kamala Harris is going on,

0:40:22.124 --> 0:40:23.844
<v Speaker 3>Joe Rogan, she must be desperate. It's like, well, she

0:40:23.844 --> 0:40:25.844
<v Speaker 3>probably should have been doing more of this all a

0:40:25.884 --> 0:40:28.284
<v Speaker 3>long right kind of yeah.

0:40:30.484 --> 0:40:32.964
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and and the All In podcast right after Trump

0:40:33.044 --> 0:40:35.564
<v Speaker 1>went on, like she should have absolutely gone on, Like

0:40:35.604 --> 0:40:38.324
<v Speaker 1>there are big media appearances that like she should have

0:40:38.364 --> 0:40:39.524
<v Speaker 1>absolutely done earlier.

0:40:40.404 --> 0:40:43.044
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, look, people read this as only must be desperate.

0:40:43.044 --> 0:40:44.484
<v Speaker 3>It's like, well, I don't know. I mean, you're supposed

0:40:44.484 --> 0:40:47.804
<v Speaker 3>to do campaigning, right, Uh, that's a normal thing that

0:40:47.884 --> 0:40:51.484
<v Speaker 3>you do. I think they had a period where they

0:40:51.564 --> 0:40:56.924
<v Speaker 3>just thought they'd ride the Charlie XCX rat summer Magic

0:40:57.044 --> 0:41:00.204
<v Speaker 3>vibes carpet ride straight to the White House.

0:41:01.924 --> 0:41:03.604
<v Speaker 2>And that's not how it usually it works.

0:41:03.644 --> 0:41:06.604
<v Speaker 3>I mean, she's at an electoral college disadvantage and and

0:41:08.004 --> 0:41:09.804
<v Speaker 3>you know, Trump throws a lot of shit out there.

0:41:11.084 --> 0:41:14.924
<v Speaker 3>You know, you've had much more outspoken support for Trump

0:41:15.004 --> 0:41:18.084
<v Speaker 3>among certain groups of voters. The vibes are different. I

0:41:18.084 --> 0:41:21.844
<v Speaker 3>think if you read kind of some of the backstory

0:41:21.884 --> 0:41:24.044
<v Speaker 3>of the part of Silicon Valley, it's not all Silicon Valley.

0:41:24.044 --> 0:41:27.284
<v Speaker 3>It's probably isn't most right, but you know, part of

0:41:27.284 --> 0:41:29.084
<v Speaker 3>what people have been trying to do in Silicon Valley

0:41:29.124 --> 0:41:32.324
<v Speaker 3>is to say it's okay to openly support Trump and

0:41:32.724 --> 0:41:34.844
<v Speaker 3>that will create a permission structure for others to support

0:41:34.924 --> 0:41:37.844
<v Speaker 3>him too. And so, you know, Twitter is a very

0:41:37.844 --> 0:41:40.364
<v Speaker 3>different platform than it was four years ago.

0:41:41.684 --> 0:41:42.484
<v Speaker 2>The mood is different.

0:41:42.484 --> 0:41:45.924
<v Speaker 3>I think, ironically, the fact that people seem like a

0:41:46.004 --> 0:41:48.404
<v Speaker 3>little bit less pissed off as they were in twenty twenty,

0:41:48.444 --> 0:41:54.084
<v Speaker 3>maybe democrats like actually want apocalyptic thinking where people are like, okay,

0:41:54.084 --> 0:41:56.204
<v Speaker 3>but yeah, I you know, look, I think one feminal

0:41:56.244 --> 0:41:59.964
<v Speaker 3>problem democrats have is it's hard to say that every

0:41:59.964 --> 0:42:03.124
<v Speaker 3>election is the most important election of all time without

0:42:03.764 --> 0:42:07.044
<v Speaker 3>voters starting to wonder if you just always say that.

0:42:08.244 --> 0:42:12.764
<v Speaker 1>Yep. And on that note, let's see, let's see what

0:42:12.804 --> 0:42:15.244
<v Speaker 1>happens next week, because this is one of the most

0:42:15.244 --> 0:42:19.764
<v Speaker 1>important elections of all time, as we've talked about you know,

0:42:19.804 --> 0:42:22.124
<v Speaker 1>we've talked about pe Doo, and we've talked about you know,

0:42:22.204 --> 0:42:24.404
<v Speaker 1>this is going to matter for a lot of different things.

0:42:24.804 --> 0:42:28.524
<v Speaker 1>And yeah, let's just see what the updates show next week.

0:42:29.324 --> 0:42:32.444
<v Speaker 1>And Elon Musk, please please stop making us watch you

0:42:32.764 --> 0:42:35.644
<v Speaker 1>jump up and down on stages. Thank you very much.

0:42:36.844 --> 0:42:39.284
<v Speaker 1>That's a personal plea from one of the co hosts

0:42:39.324 --> 0:42:45.404
<v Speaker 1>of Risky Business.

0:42:46.284 --> 0:42:49.164
<v Speaker 2>Risky Business is hosted by me Nate Silver and.

0:42:49.164 --> 0:42:50.284
<v Speaker 1>Me Maria Kanakova.

0:42:50.764 --> 0:42:53.884
<v Speaker 3>The show was a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.

0:42:54.644 --> 0:42:58.164
<v Speaker 3>This episode was produced by Isabel Carter. Our associate producer

0:42:58.244 --> 0:43:02.244
<v Speaker 3>is Gabriel Hunter Cheen. Our engineer is Sarah Bruger. Our

0:43:02.284 --> 0:43:04.204
<v Speaker 3>executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

0:43:04.444 --> 0:43:06.164
<v Speaker 1>If you want to listen to an ad free version,

0:43:06.244 --> 0:43:08.884
<v Speaker 1>sign up for Pushkin Plus. For six ninety nine a month,

0:43:09.004 --> 0:43:11.964
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