1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:27,524 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:27,564 --> 00:00:30,044 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 3 00:00:29,924 --> 00:00:32,804 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver today on the program. 4 00:00:32,884 --> 00:00:36,244 Speaker 3: Since the last time you heard this show, one of 5 00:00:36,284 --> 00:00:38,764 Speaker 3: the two hosts of Receive Business has won a world 6 00:00:38,804 --> 00:00:41,844 Speaker 3: series of pook or Bracelet. We will soon disclose who 7 00:00:41,884 --> 00:00:44,324 Speaker 3: that is in connect an interview with him or her. 8 00:00:45,564 --> 00:00:48,404 Speaker 1: I love the suspense building night and looking forward to 9 00:00:48,444 --> 00:00:51,404 Speaker 1: the interview with him or her. After that, we're going 10 00:00:51,484 --> 00:00:54,764 Speaker 1: to ship gears and talk about the Nobel Prizes, specifically 11 00:00:54,964 --> 00:00:58,084 Speaker 1: the Nobel Peace Prize that was awarded a last week, 12 00:00:58,364 --> 00:01:03,604 Speaker 1: and pe Doom and the probability of nuclear destruction and 13 00:01:03,644 --> 00:01:06,044 Speaker 1: what has happened with that over the years, and. 14 00:01:05,964 --> 00:01:18,564 Speaker 2: Then some politics. So exciting poker developments. 15 00:01:18,604 --> 00:01:22,044 Speaker 3: This weekend, I was down in uh New Orleans for 16 00:01:22,084 --> 00:01:24,524 Speaker 3: a friend's birthday, play a little bit at the Haras there, 17 00:01:24,604 --> 00:01:27,644 Speaker 3: which has a very aggressive policy of making sure there 18 00:01:27,684 --> 00:01:28,964 Speaker 3: are lots of drink servers. 19 00:01:29,004 --> 00:01:30,364 Speaker 2: So the games are good and loose. 20 00:01:30,924 --> 00:01:34,884 Speaker 3: One three game and I won two hundred and one dollars, 21 00:01:34,964 --> 00:01:37,444 Speaker 3: and even more excited found that it was a twenty 22 00:01:37,444 --> 00:01:39,484 Speaker 3: five dollars ship by forgotten to cash in, so really 23 00:01:39,844 --> 00:01:41,604 Speaker 3: really to twenty six. So I think it would be 24 00:01:41,644 --> 00:01:45,084 Speaker 3: hard to top that for poker accomplishment since the last show, right. 25 00:01:44,964 --> 00:01:46,884 Speaker 2: Maria, I think it would be. 26 00:01:46,964 --> 00:01:49,924 Speaker 1: I think that's that's pretty impressive and congratulations. It always 27 00:01:49,964 --> 00:01:51,804 Speaker 1: feels so good to find that extra chip. 28 00:01:52,044 --> 00:01:54,804 Speaker 3: It's like sound, it's like almost better than yeah, it's 29 00:01:54,804 --> 00:01:57,404 Speaker 3: almost better than actually having the cash. 30 00:01:57,604 --> 00:01:59,964 Speaker 1: I feel like, yeah, for sure, for sure, because you 31 00:02:00,004 --> 00:02:02,684 Speaker 1: forget you have it. I love the poker stories, by 32 00:02:02,684 --> 00:02:06,724 Speaker 1: the way, as a tangent of djens, because they're always djens, 33 00:02:06,764 --> 00:02:09,764 Speaker 1: like poker players who are not djens. These stores don't 34 00:02:09,764 --> 00:02:11,644 Speaker 1: happen to them when they're like, oh, you know, I 35 00:02:11,684 --> 00:02:15,044 Speaker 1: was emptying out an old sweatshirt and I found, you know, 36 00:02:15,124 --> 00:02:18,444 Speaker 1: two five K chips or like a day or this 37 00:02:18,644 --> 00:02:21,124 Speaker 1: or that, and they totally forget. They're like, oh, in 38 00:02:21,124 --> 00:02:23,764 Speaker 1: this old backpack, like at a twenty five K chip, 39 00:02:23,844 --> 00:02:28,364 Speaker 1: like it's awesome. So so those stories always tend to 40 00:02:28,404 --> 00:02:30,644 Speaker 1: crack me up, but they do happen. Then it happened 41 00:02:30,644 --> 00:02:31,964 Speaker 1: more frequently than you would think. 42 00:02:32,964 --> 00:02:37,364 Speaker 3: Meanwhile, I woke up on Monday a little bit later 43 00:02:37,364 --> 00:02:40,324 Speaker 3: than usual due to the New Orleans weekend, and I 44 00:02:40,364 --> 00:02:42,324 Speaker 3: saw a note from you posted at what time? 45 00:02:42,444 --> 00:02:44,244 Speaker 2: Was this like three or four in the morning or something. 46 00:02:44,564 --> 00:02:46,124 Speaker 1: It was three in the morning Pacific time. 47 00:02:46,204 --> 00:02:48,564 Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, Maria, tell me what that note said. 48 00:02:50,124 --> 00:02:52,844 Speaker 1: I don't remember exactly what the wording was, but something 49 00:02:52,884 --> 00:02:55,644 Speaker 1: along the lines of like, holy shit, I won my 50 00:02:55,684 --> 00:02:58,364 Speaker 1: first World Series of Poker bracelet. 51 00:02:58,484 --> 00:03:00,284 Speaker 3: Oh my gosh, Maria, I'm so proud of you, and 52 00:03:00,324 --> 00:03:02,004 Speaker 3: the audience of the show is proud of you too. 53 00:03:02,084 --> 00:03:04,564 Speaker 2: So tell me, tell me everything. Tell me. Did the 54 00:03:04,564 --> 00:03:06,284 Speaker 2: tournament actually end at three am? 55 00:03:06,844 --> 00:03:09,404 Speaker 1: Yeah? The tournament ended at like at like two fifes 56 00:03:09,564 --> 00:03:12,724 Speaker 1: day something something along those lines. So it was an 57 00:03:12,764 --> 00:03:15,004 Speaker 1: incredibly long tournament. I mean, it was ten and a 58 00:03:15,004 --> 00:03:23,164 Speaker 1: half hours. But those those hours tend to be much 59 00:03:23,204 --> 00:03:26,404 Speaker 1: more difficult for players like me who are getting on 60 00:03:26,644 --> 00:03:30,484 Speaker 1: in year's night, because we're playing so late into the night. So, 61 00:03:30,884 --> 00:03:33,164 Speaker 1: you know, it's unlike in a live World Series of 62 00:03:33,164 --> 00:03:36,524 Speaker 1: Poker event, where like you're playing over multiple days. Like here, 63 00:03:36,564 --> 00:03:39,164 Speaker 1: it's just concentrated. And you know, I happen to be 64 00:03:39,244 --> 00:03:41,484 Speaker 1: in Las Vegas right now, which is where I was 65 00:03:41,484 --> 00:03:43,924 Speaker 1: playing this event. But for the poor people on the 66 00:03:43,924 --> 00:03:46,964 Speaker 1: East Coast, it's even worse. Right, they ended at six am, 67 00:03:47,844 --> 00:03:48,804 Speaker 1: So tell me more. 68 00:03:48,644 --> 00:03:54,324 Speaker 3: About this is a bracelet event obviously, what is it 69 00:03:54,564 --> 00:03:55,764 Speaker 3: eighty eight or something? 70 00:03:55,964 --> 00:03:59,484 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's the Crazy eight eight eight eight event and 71 00:04:00,724 --> 00:04:05,684 Speaker 1: it was part of so as of last year, the 72 00:04:05,684 --> 00:04:08,804 Speaker 1: World Series of Poker has done a fall series where 73 00:04:08,804 --> 00:04:11,564 Speaker 1: they have I don't actually know how many events twenty 74 00:04:11,684 --> 00:04:16,044 Speaker 1: something like that were they were they award online bracelets, 75 00:04:16,044 --> 00:04:18,084 Speaker 1: which is you know, a different thing because some people 76 00:04:18,124 --> 00:04:22,044 Speaker 1: think that online bracelets shouldn't count, but they do count 77 00:04:22,124 --> 00:04:25,044 Speaker 1: for now. So I'm going to account mine because. 78 00:04:24,844 --> 00:04:27,684 Speaker 2: I want what did you do when you won? 79 00:04:29,284 --> 00:04:32,564 Speaker 1: Oh? My I was very, very tired, and everyone I 80 00:04:32,604 --> 00:04:35,764 Speaker 1: know was asleep, so I oh, except for my parents. 81 00:04:35,844 --> 00:04:38,804 Speaker 1: So my parents are currently on vacation in France. So 82 00:04:38,884 --> 00:04:41,644 Speaker 1: I texted my parents and told them that I want 83 00:04:41,644 --> 00:04:43,244 Speaker 1: a bracelet because they were the only people I knew 84 00:04:43,284 --> 00:04:48,564 Speaker 1: who were awake plus sleep. Anyway, what your husband was asleep? 85 00:04:49,164 --> 00:04:51,084 Speaker 1: He was asleep, yes, but I did wake him up 86 00:04:51,524 --> 00:04:57,564 Speaker 1: to tell him you should Yeah, yes, and uh I 87 00:04:57,604 --> 00:05:01,244 Speaker 1: obviously I also texted Eric's sidell since you know he 88 00:05:01,804 --> 00:05:03,964 Speaker 1: this is as I'm not going to say as much 89 00:05:03,964 --> 00:05:06,284 Speaker 1: as victory, but like, I wouldn't be here if it 90 00:05:06,284 --> 00:05:09,164 Speaker 1: weren't for his mentorship and coaching and training throughout the 91 00:05:09,244 --> 00:05:13,884 Speaker 1: year and support. So he was asleep. But he by 92 00:05:13,884 --> 00:05:16,364 Speaker 1: the time he texted me back, I was asleep because 93 00:05:17,044 --> 00:05:18,804 Speaker 1: you know, I went to bed quite light. 94 00:05:19,484 --> 00:05:22,124 Speaker 2: Did you adopt an a particular strategy for this event? 95 00:05:22,164 --> 00:05:22,644 Speaker 2: I mean, do you? 96 00:05:22,724 --> 00:05:24,244 Speaker 3: I mean know, the vibes are a little bit different 97 00:05:24,244 --> 00:05:26,764 Speaker 3: than on Yeah, he's online. I haven't played that many. 98 00:05:26,804 --> 00:05:29,444 Speaker 3: I've never even cashed one night online actually. 99 00:05:29,204 --> 00:05:31,164 Speaker 1: With the World So this is the first. Yeah, this 100 00:05:31,244 --> 00:05:33,964 Speaker 1: is the first time I've played in an online bracelet series. 101 00:05:34,004 --> 00:05:37,044 Speaker 1: Actually that's not true. I played during COVID. So do 102 00:05:37,044 --> 00:05:40,404 Speaker 1: you remember during COVID when the World Series Live was canceled, 103 00:05:40,524 --> 00:05:44,164 Speaker 1: they ended up doing a bracelet series that summer during 104 00:05:44,244 --> 00:05:47,924 Speaker 1: the World Series instead, And we rented an airbnb in 105 00:05:47,964 --> 00:05:51,244 Speaker 1: New Jersey and spent a few weeks in New Jersey 106 00:05:51,284 --> 00:05:53,764 Speaker 1: and I played online there and did not do well. 107 00:05:54,524 --> 00:05:57,804 Speaker 1: But so this is this is a second online series 108 00:05:57,844 --> 00:06:03,084 Speaker 1: that I've played, and I got to Vegas a few 109 00:06:03,124 --> 00:06:07,084 Speaker 1: days ago this weekend and have been able to play 110 00:06:07,084 --> 00:06:11,844 Speaker 1: a few events, and it's definitely you know, it's definitely 111 00:06:11,884 --> 00:06:15,164 Speaker 1: different because I'm a lot I'm someone who specializes in 112 00:06:15,204 --> 00:06:18,404 Speaker 1: live tournaments, so it's hard for me. It's much harder 113 00:06:18,404 --> 00:06:20,764 Speaker 1: for me to play online because I don't see faces, 114 00:06:20,844 --> 00:06:22,844 Speaker 1: you know, I don't see a lot of the kind 115 00:06:22,844 --> 00:06:27,524 Speaker 1: of physical things that I would normally use. That's it 116 00:06:27,684 --> 00:06:31,324 Speaker 1: I actually started. You know, I learned poker by playing online. 117 00:06:31,764 --> 00:06:33,564 Speaker 1: I would go to New Jersey every single day and 118 00:06:33,564 --> 00:06:38,364 Speaker 1: play on Poker Stars. I know that. Yeah, so because 119 00:06:38,604 --> 00:06:40,524 Speaker 1: online poker is not legal in New York but is 120 00:06:40,604 --> 00:06:43,684 Speaker 1: legal in New Jersey, I would. I would cross the river, 121 00:06:43,684 --> 00:06:46,004 Speaker 1: i would take the Path train, and I would sit 122 00:06:46,044 --> 00:06:48,244 Speaker 1: in a cafe and I'd play online on Poker Stars. 123 00:06:48,564 --> 00:06:50,404 Speaker 1: And the reason I did that, even though I always 124 00:06:50,444 --> 00:06:52,284 Speaker 1: knew that I had that I wanted to play live, 125 00:06:52,684 --> 00:06:55,164 Speaker 1: was everyone I was working with, namely you know, Eric 126 00:06:55,204 --> 00:06:58,204 Speaker 1: Sidell and Phil Galfond. At the time, they were saying, 127 00:06:58,244 --> 00:06:59,684 Speaker 1: you know, you need to get hands in, right, you 128 00:06:59,724 --> 00:07:01,804 Speaker 1: need to get practice in. You need to you need 129 00:07:01,844 --> 00:07:04,684 Speaker 1: to get repetition and figure out what these spots feel like. 130 00:07:04,724 --> 00:07:06,804 Speaker 1: And the only way to do that is by playing online. 131 00:07:07,364 --> 00:07:10,004 Speaker 1: So it's not like, you know, I start it live 132 00:07:10,084 --> 00:07:13,164 Speaker 1: and I've never played online. That was where my initial 133 00:07:13,204 --> 00:07:16,204 Speaker 1: training came from. But I still actually think that for me, 134 00:07:16,684 --> 00:07:21,084 Speaker 1: online poker is much tougher and my I mean, my 135 00:07:21,124 --> 00:07:24,244 Speaker 1: strategy was just to try to play as as well 136 00:07:24,284 --> 00:07:28,204 Speaker 1: as I possibly could, and I ended up in for 137 00:07:28,364 --> 00:07:31,284 Speaker 1: the max number of rebuys, which obviously is not ideal. 138 00:07:31,324 --> 00:07:34,764 Speaker 1: You could rebuy three times and I had, I had, 139 00:07:34,924 --> 00:07:38,644 Speaker 1: I ran pocket Jacks into pocket Kings twice for my 140 00:07:38,924 --> 00:07:41,524 Speaker 1: for two of the bust outs, and my final hand 141 00:07:41,524 --> 00:07:45,284 Speaker 1: of the tournament, actually in Poetic Justice, was pocket Jack's. 142 00:07:45,684 --> 00:07:50,404 Speaker 1: But yeah, so you know, obviously I don't love max rebuying, 143 00:07:50,484 --> 00:07:52,164 Speaker 1: but I was ready to do that, and I think 144 00:07:52,204 --> 00:07:56,204 Speaker 1: sometimes you need to, you know, when you know, the 145 00:07:56,484 --> 00:07:58,204 Speaker 1: rebuys are there for a reason, you know, you're playing 146 00:07:58,244 --> 00:08:02,444 Speaker 1: a rebuy event, and so I just wanted to play 147 00:08:02,484 --> 00:08:06,084 Speaker 1: my best game and uh, really make sure that I 148 00:08:06,244 --> 00:08:09,404 Speaker 1: was playing well and not punting. So a few days ago, 149 00:08:10,044 --> 00:08:12,564 Speaker 1: the first online Bracelet event I played was the thirty 150 00:08:12,564 --> 00:08:16,364 Speaker 1: two hundred six max and I came in eighth, and 151 00:08:16,404 --> 00:08:20,684 Speaker 1: that was so close, and I was actually, you know, 152 00:08:20,804 --> 00:08:23,924 Speaker 1: talking to someone afterwards, and I was like, oh man, 153 00:08:23,964 --> 00:08:25,924 Speaker 1: that's probably the closest I'll ever come to winning a 154 00:08:25,964 --> 00:08:30,164 Speaker 1: Bracelet seventh player. So I and then a few days later, 155 00:08:30,404 --> 00:08:33,564 Speaker 1: I came even closer, so that felt very nice. 156 00:08:33,924 --> 00:08:36,604 Speaker 3: So this fourth bullet, was it relatively smooth that you 157 00:08:36,604 --> 00:08:41,044 Speaker 3: wrack up a big stack early or uh no, so. 158 00:08:41,844 --> 00:08:44,204 Speaker 1: Some of it was smooth, but I actually so you 159 00:08:44,204 --> 00:08:47,324 Speaker 1: can review all of your hands, which I did prior 160 00:08:47,364 --> 00:08:50,964 Speaker 1: to this conversation. You know, I had gotten I got 161 00:08:51,004 --> 00:08:53,804 Speaker 1: short a few times, and then there were actually a 162 00:08:53,844 --> 00:08:57,484 Speaker 1: few pivotal hands that really helped propel me to the win. 163 00:08:58,724 --> 00:09:04,204 Speaker 1: I was middle of the pack for most of the tournament, 164 00:09:04,284 --> 00:09:06,884 Speaker 1: and I was actually quite low. In the last bullet. 165 00:09:06,884 --> 00:09:09,444 Speaker 1: I thought that I was going to bust because I 166 00:09:09,484 --> 00:09:13,324 Speaker 1: got very unlucky in one hand and was down to 167 00:09:13,524 --> 00:09:17,004 Speaker 1: some ten big blinds for a chunk of time, and 168 00:09:17,044 --> 00:09:20,404 Speaker 1: then was able to work it back up, grind it 169 00:09:20,444 --> 00:09:25,044 Speaker 1: back up, and build up a stack. And then there 170 00:09:25,044 --> 00:09:27,564 Speaker 1: were a few hands that I thought were quite interesting. 171 00:09:27,644 --> 00:09:29,884 Speaker 1: I think one of the most important hands in the 172 00:09:29,924 --> 00:09:34,604 Speaker 1: tournament was when we were down to two tables. So 173 00:09:34,644 --> 00:09:37,324 Speaker 1: at this point we were already all in the money, 174 00:09:37,524 --> 00:09:41,524 Speaker 1: and the pay jumps by the way, So because I 175 00:09:41,564 --> 00:09:43,404 Speaker 1: was in for four bullets, I needed to get better 176 00:09:43,444 --> 00:09:47,684 Speaker 1: than tenth to break even. Because it's a very it's 177 00:09:47,724 --> 00:09:54,044 Speaker 1: a very flat payout structure, and we were I think 178 00:09:54,044 --> 00:09:57,444 Speaker 1: there were fifteen of us left at the time, and 179 00:09:57,844 --> 00:10:00,884 Speaker 1: I was kind of middle of the road, you know, 180 00:10:01,044 --> 00:10:04,724 Speaker 1: I was I had twenty something big blinds. So I 181 00:10:04,844 --> 00:10:08,004 Speaker 1: ended up we were eight handed at the table, and 182 00:10:08,084 --> 00:10:10,964 Speaker 1: I was in the hijack. For people who don't know poker, 183 00:10:11,084 --> 00:10:13,804 Speaker 1: you know, that's kind of middle middleish position. And I 184 00:10:13,924 --> 00:10:16,524 Speaker 1: was dealt King ten of Spades, which is which is 185 00:10:16,564 --> 00:10:17,164 Speaker 1: a pretty good hand. 186 00:10:17,204 --> 00:10:19,404 Speaker 2: Yeah, you're pretty excited, pretty excited. 187 00:10:19,204 --> 00:10:22,164 Speaker 1: Pretty excited. So I raised men raised, you know, two 188 00:10:22,244 --> 00:10:25,684 Speaker 1: big blinds, and then the player who was on the button, 189 00:10:25,964 --> 00:10:28,204 Speaker 1: who was the biggest stack at the table, so almost 190 00:10:28,284 --> 00:10:30,164 Speaker 1: twice what I had. 191 00:10:30,684 --> 00:10:32,964 Speaker 2: And don't don't know who this is. 192 00:10:33,564 --> 00:10:37,924 Speaker 1: No, his his name was Sabuku. So his screen name 193 00:10:38,084 --> 00:10:42,804 Speaker 1: is Ritualistic Suicide by Disembelment. So so that's fun. 194 00:10:42,844 --> 00:10:46,844 Speaker 2: And you're in the hijack. A lot of violent terminology. 195 00:10:46,204 --> 00:10:50,404 Speaker 1: Here, absolutely, I'm in the hijack, and and he is 196 00:10:50,444 --> 00:10:53,564 Speaker 1: on the button and he decides to three bet me 197 00:10:54,004 --> 00:10:59,564 Speaker 1: and he makes it six bitlines. And you know, this 198 00:10:59,684 --> 00:11:03,404 Speaker 1: is already an interesting spot, right because I'm short enough 199 00:11:03,444 --> 00:11:06,084 Speaker 1: that I could fold, but I have a really playable 200 00:11:06,124 --> 00:11:08,724 Speaker 1: hand right, a hand that does really well post flop, 201 00:11:09,204 --> 00:11:11,684 Speaker 1: and and you know it's not it's not a huge 202 00:11:11,724 --> 00:11:14,804 Speaker 1: three bet anyway. It could go either. It can actually 203 00:11:14,804 --> 00:11:17,044 Speaker 1: go anyway. Right, I can if I think he's full 204 00:11:17,084 --> 00:11:19,004 Speaker 1: of shit, I can just shove because I have a 205 00:11:19,084 --> 00:11:22,604 Speaker 1: nice reshove stack. I can fold, there's no shame in 206 00:11:23,044 --> 00:11:26,004 Speaker 1: folding King ten. Or I can call. And I haven't 207 00:11:26,044 --> 00:11:29,164 Speaker 1: run this hand through any sim yet, so I'm not 208 00:11:29,204 --> 00:11:31,564 Speaker 1: sure if what I did was correct or not. But 209 00:11:31,644 --> 00:11:35,284 Speaker 1: I called, and the flop. So at this point, right, 210 00:11:35,324 --> 00:11:38,204 Speaker 1: what is our pot? At this point, our pot is 211 00:11:39,324 --> 00:11:43,404 Speaker 1: fifteen yard blots, yeah, something like that. And the PLoP 212 00:11:43,564 --> 00:11:47,284 Speaker 1: comes seven eight nine, one spade, two clubs, and we 213 00:11:47,364 --> 00:11:50,964 Speaker 1: have King ten of spades yep. So we have an 214 00:11:51,004 --> 00:11:55,524 Speaker 1: open ended straight draw right, seven eight nine ten, and 215 00:11:56,364 --> 00:12:00,644 Speaker 1: we have a back door flush straw. Right, So we're drawing. 216 00:12:00,724 --> 00:12:03,404 Speaker 1: We're drawing to a lot of nutty or second nutty 217 00:12:03,444 --> 00:12:05,724 Speaker 1: type hands, but we don't have anything. We still have 218 00:12:05,804 --> 00:12:08,684 Speaker 1: King high. So I check, which I would do with 219 00:12:08,724 --> 00:12:11,444 Speaker 1: basically all of my hands in this situation when I'm 220 00:12:11,444 --> 00:12:16,004 Speaker 1: out of position, and he checks back, which is interesting, right, 221 00:12:16,084 --> 00:12:19,164 Speaker 1: because it tells me something about the strength of his hand. Right. Also, 222 00:12:19,164 --> 00:12:22,084 Speaker 1: if he has really strong hands, he doesn't want to 223 00:12:22,164 --> 00:12:26,484 Speaker 1: check back that board because it's an incredibly draw heavy board. Right. 224 00:12:26,524 --> 00:12:29,484 Speaker 1: If you have pocket aces, you do not want me 225 00:12:29,564 --> 00:12:32,004 Speaker 1: to see another card, right, You do not want me 226 00:12:32,044 --> 00:12:35,124 Speaker 1: to hit my straight. You do not want me to 227 00:12:35,204 --> 00:12:39,564 Speaker 1: hit my flush like they're you really do not want 228 00:12:39,604 --> 00:12:42,844 Speaker 1: me to get a free card. Right, So he checks 229 00:12:42,884 --> 00:12:45,564 Speaker 1: back and the turn is a queen of clubs. So 230 00:12:45,804 --> 00:12:49,564 Speaker 1: now jack ten has made us straight. And let's remember 231 00:12:49,644 --> 00:12:51,324 Speaker 1: I have a ten in my hand, right, so I 232 00:12:51,444 --> 00:12:56,284 Speaker 1: block the nuts or the second obviously, meaning for lunch 233 00:12:56,284 --> 00:12:56,804 Speaker 1: has come in. 234 00:12:57,364 --> 00:12:59,644 Speaker 3: Yeah, meaning it's hard now harder for him to have 235 00:12:59,724 --> 00:13:03,524 Speaker 3: combinatorically the best possible hand because you have. 236 00:13:04,524 --> 00:13:07,244 Speaker 1: And that's actually not true because he could still have clubs, right, 237 00:13:07,284 --> 00:13:09,124 Speaker 1: he could have one club in his hand. I don't 238 00:13:09,164 --> 00:13:12,484 Speaker 1: think he checks back clubs on the on the flop, 239 00:13:12,604 --> 00:13:14,804 Speaker 1: but he could have a hand with one club. That 240 00:13:14,844 --> 00:13:18,164 Speaker 1: could be that could be drawing very live. But I 241 00:13:18,204 --> 00:13:21,084 Speaker 1: don't think he has two clubs in his hand. And 242 00:13:21,604 --> 00:13:24,764 Speaker 1: I am blocking the straight the not straight. But so 243 00:13:24,844 --> 00:13:27,484 Speaker 1: the queen is actually like not not a great card 244 00:13:27,564 --> 00:13:31,084 Speaker 1: for him when he checks when he checks back, the flop, 245 00:13:31,324 --> 00:13:33,204 Speaker 1: and so I decide to lead. So here I do 246 00:13:33,324 --> 00:13:35,724 Speaker 1: decide to lead, which I would actually do with a 247 00:13:35,724 --> 00:13:37,444 Speaker 1: lot of my flushes, because I have a lot of 248 00:13:37,444 --> 00:13:40,524 Speaker 1: flushes here, right, and and I do have straights here, 249 00:13:40,764 --> 00:13:42,964 Speaker 1: and I don't want and with the ten like I 250 00:13:42,964 --> 00:13:45,604 Speaker 1: could very well have jack ten. Now you know, I 251 00:13:45,924 --> 00:13:48,204 Speaker 1: don't want any more clubs to roll off. So I bet, 252 00:13:49,124 --> 00:13:53,724 Speaker 1: and I bet pretty small. And the reason I bet small, 253 00:13:53,764 --> 00:13:56,484 Speaker 1: by the way, was if you think of the stack sizes, 254 00:13:56,684 --> 00:13:58,804 Speaker 1: I will have a pot size bet left if he 255 00:13:58,844 --> 00:14:01,564 Speaker 1: calls on the river. And so that's a really good 256 00:14:03,004 --> 00:14:06,404 Speaker 1: ratio because I'll be able to shove for full pot 257 00:14:06,444 --> 00:14:07,764 Speaker 1: and I can, by the way, still improve. 258 00:14:07,924 --> 00:14:09,884 Speaker 3: He has some hands that just are gonna give up 259 00:14:09,844 --> 00:14:14,924 Speaker 3: pretty easily there, you know, ace jack without a flushtraw 260 00:14:15,084 --> 00:14:18,164 Speaker 3: or something like that or I don't know if that. 261 00:14:18,244 --> 00:14:21,324 Speaker 1: Podcast For that small Yeah, for that small size, I 262 00:14:21,324 --> 00:14:23,324 Speaker 1: can get a lot of hands that are doing better 263 00:14:23,364 --> 00:14:27,844 Speaker 1: than me right to fold, which is great. And if 264 00:14:27,844 --> 00:14:29,724 Speaker 1: he has a club, right, if he has the ace 265 00:14:29,764 --> 00:14:31,844 Speaker 1: of clubs in his hands, if he has the King 266 00:14:31,844 --> 00:14:33,764 Speaker 1: of club in his hands, he's never folding even to 267 00:14:33,804 --> 00:14:36,764 Speaker 1: a huge bed, right. So so I think that I'm 268 00:14:36,764 --> 00:14:39,884 Speaker 1: not accomplishing that much if I get bigger. And also 269 00:14:40,004 --> 00:14:42,164 Speaker 1: his hands that aren't very happy. I don't think he's 270 00:14:42,204 --> 00:14:45,804 Speaker 1: ever raising me with red aces right or red kings 271 00:14:46,724 --> 00:14:49,564 Speaker 1: because that board is just not a great board for 272 00:14:49,684 --> 00:14:54,124 Speaker 1: him to do that. So he calls and the river 273 00:14:54,244 --> 00:14:58,844 Speaker 1: comes a queen of spades, so pairs of boord So now. 274 00:14:59,124 --> 00:15:01,164 Speaker 2: Seven eight nine queen queen. 275 00:15:01,444 --> 00:15:04,764 Speaker 1: Yep, three clubs, two spades, and so at this point 276 00:15:04,764 --> 00:15:08,444 Speaker 1: I have king high, right, Yeah, I don't have much, 277 00:15:08,804 --> 00:15:13,644 Speaker 1: and the pot is huge, and there's no way if 278 00:15:13,644 --> 00:15:15,684 Speaker 1: I check, he's going to be checking back all of 279 00:15:15,724 --> 00:15:18,004 Speaker 1: his a's highs, like he's going to be so happy 280 00:15:18,044 --> 00:15:21,684 Speaker 1: to check that thing down. But if I bet, you know, 281 00:15:23,204 --> 00:15:27,084 Speaker 1: he might hero call with some pairs. You know, now 282 00:15:27,084 --> 00:15:29,804 Speaker 1: that the queen has paired, he might hero call some hands. 283 00:15:29,964 --> 00:15:31,644 Speaker 1: But if I shove, if I go all in for 284 00:15:31,684 --> 00:15:33,844 Speaker 1: the pot, that's a huge you know, that's a huge 285 00:15:33,844 --> 00:15:36,564 Speaker 1: percentage of his stack too. And if he calls and 286 00:15:36,724 --> 00:15:41,044 Speaker 1: is wrong, that's lights out for his stack. And he's 287 00:15:41,044 --> 00:15:42,644 Speaker 1: the chip leader of the table. He's not the chip 288 00:15:42,724 --> 00:15:44,684 Speaker 1: leader of the tournament, but he's the chip leader of 289 00:15:44,724 --> 00:15:46,284 Speaker 1: the table, and that's a great position to be in. 290 00:15:46,884 --> 00:15:47,844 Speaker 3: So I shove. 291 00:15:48,404 --> 00:15:51,604 Speaker 1: Because you know, after kind of thinking through my options, 292 00:15:51,684 --> 00:15:54,564 Speaker 1: I figured that I can, I can safely do that, 293 00:15:54,644 --> 00:15:57,244 Speaker 1: and I can represent a lot of strong hands that 294 00:15:57,284 --> 00:16:00,964 Speaker 1: he does not have. And by the way, when the 295 00:16:01,044 --> 00:16:05,004 Speaker 1: Queen of Spades and the Queen of Clubs are both 296 00:16:05,164 --> 00:16:08,324 Speaker 1: on the board, it's much less likely that he actually 297 00:16:08,404 --> 00:16:12,524 Speaker 1: hasn't Ace Queen or kin queen because the suited varieties 298 00:16:13,924 --> 00:16:17,004 Speaker 1: are are not there anymore for the ones that have 299 00:16:17,084 --> 00:16:17,764 Speaker 1: backdoor draws. 300 00:16:17,804 --> 00:16:19,524 Speaker 2: If he asked kid Queen, he might even fold it. 301 00:16:20,204 --> 00:16:25,324 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, So I shoved and the guy so in retrospect, 302 00:16:25,364 --> 00:16:30,884 Speaker 1: shoving into a guy whose screen name is Japanese Ritualistics 303 00:16:31,044 --> 00:16:35,164 Speaker 1: suicide by disemvelopment might not have been my finest people 304 00:16:35,164 --> 00:16:38,404 Speaker 1: reading moment. But so he goes into the tank and 305 00:16:38,444 --> 00:16:40,444 Speaker 1: he starts running down his time bank, and I'm like, 306 00:16:40,484 --> 00:16:42,404 Speaker 1: oh fuck when they do that, right when they run 307 00:16:42,444 --> 00:16:44,004 Speaker 1: down the time bank like they're calling. 308 00:16:44,444 --> 00:16:46,204 Speaker 2: And then finally we have experience. 309 00:16:46,284 --> 00:16:48,724 Speaker 3: I find like people people like to fold to me 310 00:16:48,764 --> 00:16:50,364 Speaker 3: where they like to fold to you, though I feel 311 00:16:50,364 --> 00:16:50,644 Speaker 3: like and. 312 00:16:50,644 --> 00:16:53,124 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's probably true. Yeah, but he didn't know who 313 00:16:53,164 --> 00:16:57,684 Speaker 1: I was. So eventually he folds and with that hand, 314 00:16:57,764 --> 00:17:00,604 Speaker 1: I actually get the chip leader of the table and 315 00:17:01,364 --> 00:17:03,484 Speaker 1: that was huge for me. Right, I'm still not chip 316 00:17:03,564 --> 00:17:05,364 Speaker 1: leader of the tournament because all the chips are on 317 00:17:05,404 --> 00:17:09,844 Speaker 1: the other table, but but I now have the blade 318 00:17:10,084 --> 00:17:12,644 Speaker 1: because this bluff was able to get through. And by 319 00:17:12,644 --> 00:17:14,244 Speaker 1: the way, had he called, I would have been out 320 00:17:14,444 --> 00:17:16,964 Speaker 1: right because all of his pairs, even if he had 321 00:17:16,964 --> 00:17:18,924 Speaker 1: pocket deuces, they beat me. 322 00:17:19,364 --> 00:17:20,044 Speaker 2: His highs beat me. 323 00:17:20,324 --> 00:17:23,644 Speaker 1: Basically, I am losing to everything that we get there with. 324 00:17:24,884 --> 00:17:27,284 Speaker 1: And a few hands later, so at this point I 325 00:17:27,324 --> 00:17:30,044 Speaker 1: become the table chip. Later then I lose a few hands. 326 00:17:30,084 --> 00:17:34,164 Speaker 1: So the person to my direct right, so he's the 327 00:17:34,204 --> 00:17:36,844 Speaker 1: small blind when I'm the big blind now covers me 328 00:17:37,004 --> 00:17:40,044 Speaker 1: by a little bit, and a few hands later it 329 00:17:40,204 --> 00:17:45,044 Speaker 1: folds to us and he raises the small blind and 330 00:17:45,084 --> 00:17:49,124 Speaker 1: he raises big. He raises to four x, and I 331 00:17:49,244 --> 00:17:53,804 Speaker 1: happened to have Queen's in the big blind, and I 332 00:17:53,924 --> 00:17:57,564 Speaker 1: just and I at this point, I have thirty five 333 00:17:58,604 --> 00:18:01,324 Speaker 1: big blind something like that, thirty six, and I just 334 00:18:01,364 --> 00:18:05,444 Speaker 1: shove because you know, it puts max pressure on and 335 00:18:05,564 --> 00:18:07,844 Speaker 1: I don't mind just taking down that pot. And he 336 00:18:07,924 --> 00:18:11,524 Speaker 1: calls and he has nine, and that's very unfortunate. For 337 00:18:11,604 --> 00:18:14,804 Speaker 1: him blind versus blind, right, we both have legitimate hands, 338 00:18:15,804 --> 00:18:18,964 Speaker 1: and I hold, and that puts me into i think 339 00:18:19,044 --> 00:18:22,444 Speaker 1: third in chips in the in the tournament, and after that, 340 00:18:23,204 --> 00:18:27,204 Speaker 1: I you know, I went back and forth, but I 341 00:18:27,324 --> 00:18:29,444 Speaker 1: had a big stack and I did not have any 342 00:18:29,484 --> 00:18:34,564 Speaker 1: major losses and was able to eventually, yeah, win the tournament. 343 00:18:34,564 --> 00:18:36,724 Speaker 1: But I think that that was kind of that was 344 00:18:36,764 --> 00:18:40,324 Speaker 1: a that bluff. The fact that bluff went through was crucial. 345 00:18:40,444 --> 00:18:42,804 Speaker 1: And then having that Queen's hand after, you know, a 346 00:18:42,804 --> 00:18:45,964 Speaker 1: few hands later, I think was really important. So one 347 00:18:46,004 --> 00:18:48,884 Speaker 1: of those hands was skilled right the bluff, and the 348 00:18:48,924 --> 00:18:53,684 Speaker 1: other hand was pure luck because you know, it's it 349 00:18:53,764 --> 00:18:56,204 Speaker 1: was lucky for me that he had a legitimate hand 350 00:18:56,244 --> 00:18:58,924 Speaker 1: and that that legitimate hand wasn't kings or races. 351 00:18:59,284 --> 00:19:00,164 Speaker 2: I like nines. 352 00:19:01,604 --> 00:19:05,084 Speaker 1: I like nice too. I like nines too. 353 00:19:06,644 --> 00:19:09,364 Speaker 2: Have you processed it yet? I haven't. 354 00:19:09,484 --> 00:19:12,524 Speaker 1: I was very tired yesterday and I haven't really had 355 00:19:12,564 --> 00:19:14,764 Speaker 1: a chance to let it sink in. But you know, 356 00:19:14,804 --> 00:19:17,284 Speaker 1: it feels really nice. I think it's a big accomplishment 357 00:19:17,364 --> 00:19:19,364 Speaker 1: and I'm just going to be proud of it. God 358 00:19:19,404 --> 00:19:21,004 Speaker 1: damn it. 359 00:19:21,604 --> 00:19:24,164 Speaker 3: Yeah, you can't prove anyway. We're really proud of you, Maria. 360 00:19:24,284 --> 00:19:28,684 Speaker 3: The whole show is dunk in the audience. So congrats, thank. 361 00:19:28,484 --> 00:19:32,964 Speaker 1: You, thank you. I'm playing another event today, Oh jeez. 362 00:19:32,964 --> 00:19:35,804 Speaker 3: Okay, see that's kind of low key, Djen. I feel 363 00:19:35,804 --> 00:19:37,844 Speaker 3: like to like be like people do that, to be 364 00:19:37,844 --> 00:19:39,524 Speaker 3: like I just want a million dollars. I'm gonna jump 365 00:19:39,564 --> 00:19:41,924 Speaker 3: in this eight hundred dollars tournament if I want to 366 00:19:41,964 --> 00:19:42,524 Speaker 3: fuck embrace it. 367 00:19:42,964 --> 00:19:44,844 Speaker 2: Taking a few days off tell you. 368 00:19:44,804 --> 00:19:50,244 Speaker 1: That, Well, well, I'll be taking a few days off 369 00:19:50,284 --> 00:19:54,124 Speaker 1: after this because I'm leaving the lovely state of Nevada 370 00:19:55,004 --> 00:19:59,964 Speaker 1: and going to Miami. So so I'm not going to 371 00:20:00,004 --> 00:20:01,164 Speaker 1: be able to play poker there. 372 00:20:02,044 --> 00:20:03,804 Speaker 2: There is poker Miami, I'll have you know. 373 00:20:05,164 --> 00:20:07,804 Speaker 1: There is poker in Miami. But I will not be 374 00:20:07,844 --> 00:20:09,124 Speaker 1: playing poker in Miami. 375 00:20:10,724 --> 00:20:14,604 Speaker 2: Okay, well, congrets for me, and let's talk about nuclear war. 376 00:20:15,564 --> 00:20:19,444 Speaker 1: Yeah, after the break, nuclear war and other fun things. 377 00:20:35,364 --> 00:20:35,484 Speaker 2: Right. 378 00:20:35,604 --> 00:20:40,964 Speaker 1: So we are recording this on Tuesday, October fifteenth, and 379 00:20:41,404 --> 00:20:45,684 Speaker 1: this is the week after all of the Nobel Prizes 380 00:20:46,084 --> 00:20:50,484 Speaker 1: were awarded, and the one I want to talk about today, Nate, was, 381 00:20:50,764 --> 00:20:53,924 Speaker 1: you know, one of the biggest Nobel prizes that is 382 00:20:53,964 --> 00:20:56,604 Speaker 1: often could have awarded to make some sort of a statement. 383 00:20:57,084 --> 00:21:00,564 Speaker 1: And this is the Nobel Peace Prize, and this year 384 00:21:01,084 --> 00:21:06,244 Speaker 1: it went to an organization called Nihon Hidankyo, which is 385 00:21:06,644 --> 00:21:11,324 Speaker 1: an organization that was found in nineteen fifty six by 386 00:21:11,524 --> 00:21:18,524 Speaker 1: survivors of the atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. So 387 00:21:19,604 --> 00:21:24,324 Speaker 1: these are the Hibakusha that's the Japanese word for survivors, 388 00:21:24,724 --> 00:21:28,444 Speaker 1: and so ever since it's been founded, they've been working 389 00:21:28,844 --> 00:21:33,884 Speaker 1: towards a world basically where nuclear deterns, a strong nuclear disarmament, 390 00:21:34,684 --> 00:21:38,124 Speaker 1: and they've been trying to kind of enforce this nuclear 391 00:21:38,164 --> 00:21:42,164 Speaker 1: taboo right that you cannot use nuclear weapons. And so 392 00:21:42,284 --> 00:21:45,524 Speaker 1: it means something that after all this time, that they 393 00:21:45,924 --> 00:21:51,484 Speaker 1: were awarded the Nobel Prize this year, And so I 394 00:21:51,564 --> 00:21:54,604 Speaker 1: want to first I'd love to hear your reaction. Then 395 00:21:54,644 --> 00:21:56,804 Speaker 1: I wanted to talk about, you know, why now and 396 00:21:56,964 --> 00:21:59,684 Speaker 1: why it's so important now that you know, these survivors 397 00:21:59,684 --> 00:22:02,524 Speaker 1: are in their eighties and there aren't very many of 398 00:22:02,564 --> 00:22:05,764 Speaker 1: them left, why it's so important that a group like 399 00:22:05,804 --> 00:22:10,724 Speaker 1: this actually be honored and what they're fighting for kind 400 00:22:10,724 --> 00:22:13,124 Speaker 1: of be brought to the public consciousness. 401 00:22:13,724 --> 00:22:16,564 Speaker 3: Yeah, it was an interesting set of Nobel Prizes in general. 402 00:22:17,204 --> 00:22:20,164 Speaker 3: There were some ai related words too. 403 00:22:21,804 --> 00:22:22,724 Speaker 2: Look, I think you kind of. 404 00:22:22,684 --> 00:22:24,884 Speaker 3: Answered the question, which is that you're losing the generational 405 00:22:24,884 --> 00:22:27,884 Speaker 3: memory the only time that nuclear weapons were used in combat, 406 00:22:27,884 --> 00:22:31,964 Speaker 3: which is by the United States on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. 407 00:22:33,724 --> 00:22:35,124 Speaker 2: And you know. 408 00:22:35,124 --> 00:22:38,364 Speaker 3: People at the time van Neuman, who was one of 409 00:22:38,404 --> 00:22:41,204 Speaker 3: the kind of founders of game theory and worked on 410 00:22:41,204 --> 00:22:44,324 Speaker 3: a Manhattan project, they all kind of assume we're all 411 00:22:44,364 --> 00:22:48,924 Speaker 3: going to die in like twenty or thirty years. You know, 412 00:22:49,044 --> 00:22:51,044 Speaker 3: a nuclear attack would be very bad. The bombs have 413 00:22:51,084 --> 00:22:53,724 Speaker 3: only gotten more powerful. You know, what was it where 414 00:22:54,244 --> 00:22:57,204 Speaker 3: during the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union were, 415 00:22:58,444 --> 00:23:02,764 Speaker 3: you know, developing tens of thousands of these. In fact, 416 00:23:02,844 --> 00:23:07,524 Speaker 3: some people like von Neumann kind of half seriously proposed 417 00:23:07,524 --> 00:23:11,004 Speaker 3: a preemptive strike on the USSR to prevent them from 418 00:23:11,084 --> 00:23:14,724 Speaker 3: having the bomb. You know, other people wanted to share 419 00:23:14,724 --> 00:23:18,164 Speaker 3: the technology more widely, but it seemed like a very 420 00:23:18,244 --> 00:23:21,644 Speaker 3: dangerous thing. And if you had asked somebody what are 421 00:23:21,644 --> 00:23:24,444 Speaker 3: the odds this would be the last nuclear usage for 422 00:23:24,484 --> 00:23:28,484 Speaker 3: the next seventy nine years, I'm not sure what odds 423 00:23:28,484 --> 00:23:30,564 Speaker 3: it would have given you. Right in the Cuban missile crisis, 424 00:23:30,644 --> 00:23:34,564 Speaker 3: Kennedy thought that we had between one and three and 425 00:23:34,684 --> 00:23:37,044 Speaker 3: one and two, so thirty three to fifty percent chance 426 00:23:37,084 --> 00:23:39,044 Speaker 3: of that conflict turning nuclear. 427 00:23:39,084 --> 00:23:42,004 Speaker 2: There have been accidents before. I mean, the whole concept 428 00:23:42,084 --> 00:23:42,604 Speaker 2: is a little. 429 00:23:42,444 --> 00:23:47,764 Speaker 3: Bit screwy, right, well, because like, if you're unwilling to 430 00:23:47,884 --> 00:23:53,764 Speaker 3: use weapons, then they don't create a current, right, But 431 00:23:53,844 --> 00:23:55,644 Speaker 3: if you are willing to use them, then that's a 432 00:23:55,684 --> 00:23:59,004 Speaker 3: real risk, and then the risk of accidents. You know, 433 00:23:59,044 --> 00:24:03,124 Speaker 3: Thomas Shelling talked about the threat that leaves something to chance. 434 00:24:03,084 --> 00:24:06,484 Speaker 1: To chance yet and by the way, Thomas Shelling also 435 00:24:06,524 --> 00:24:09,324 Speaker 1: won a Nobel Prize for that work. So since we're 436 00:24:09,404 --> 00:24:11,724 Speaker 1: talking about Nobel prizes, let's let's call that out yep. 437 00:24:12,404 --> 00:24:15,484 Speaker 3: So yeah, look, you know there is a lot of 438 00:24:15,524 --> 00:24:17,404 Speaker 3: discussion now, including on the show in a couple of 439 00:24:17,404 --> 00:24:22,124 Speaker 3: segments on P doom, probability of doom, really bad shit happening, 440 00:24:22,204 --> 00:24:30,924 Speaker 3: everyone blowing up because of runaway misalign artificial intelligence. You know, 441 00:24:31,004 --> 00:24:34,044 Speaker 3: nuclear war risk was the original P doom in the 442 00:24:34,084 --> 00:24:37,564 Speaker 3: sense that it was the first technology that had the 443 00:24:37,604 --> 00:24:40,964 Speaker 3: potential to wipe out all of civilization potentially a threshold 444 00:24:41,004 --> 00:24:45,924 Speaker 3: moment that the world kind of can't undo anymore. And 445 00:24:45,964 --> 00:24:47,684 Speaker 3: I wonder I people have gotten a little bit complacent 446 00:24:47,764 --> 00:24:50,124 Speaker 3: about the risk. The number of nuclear states is proliferating. 447 00:24:51,244 --> 00:24:54,084 Speaker 3: You know, North Korea, you know, I know who officially 448 00:24:54,084 --> 00:24:56,404 Speaker 3: says they have what, but you know, North Korea has 449 00:24:57,484 --> 00:25:00,004 Speaker 3: the bomb. Now, maybe not the best bombs, but you know, 450 00:25:00,124 --> 00:25:03,724 Speaker 3: probably got a couple of bombs, but he bomb. Iran 451 00:25:04,764 --> 00:25:09,164 Speaker 3: has been trying to develop nuclear weapons in the Middle East. 452 00:25:09,164 --> 00:25:12,044 Speaker 3: That's a hot bit obviously of problems right now. And 453 00:25:13,244 --> 00:25:15,924 Speaker 3: Israel has this practice of strategic ambiguity, so if you 454 00:25:16,004 --> 00:25:19,204 Speaker 3: ask them, they'll say, ah, nuclear weapons, we never heard 455 00:25:19,204 --> 00:25:23,844 Speaker 3: of them. But clearly part of their deterrence is based 456 00:25:23,844 --> 00:25:28,284 Speaker 3: on the ultimate threat that they might have. And Ukraine, right, 457 00:25:28,324 --> 00:25:32,604 Speaker 3: I mean, you know, one fortunate thing about the theater 458 00:25:32,684 --> 00:25:35,924 Speaker 3: of conflict in Ukraine is that if you were to 459 00:25:35,964 --> 00:25:38,284 Speaker 3: have a nuclear weapon detonated, their dirty bomb or whatever, 460 00:25:38,604 --> 00:25:41,684 Speaker 3: it would potentially blow if trailing winds are east into Russia, 461 00:25:41,724 --> 00:25:45,524 Speaker 3: it would create fallout contamination over Russia. So it's a 462 00:25:45,524 --> 00:25:50,844 Speaker 3: little bit suicidal to do that potentially. Yeah, I mean, look, 463 00:25:50,844 --> 00:25:51,964 Speaker 3: this shit's serious. 464 00:25:52,604 --> 00:25:54,324 Speaker 1: It is serious. And by the way, kind of the 465 00:25:54,324 --> 00:25:58,364 Speaker 1: fallowout risk to Russia, we saw that happen during Chernobyl, right, 466 00:25:58,484 --> 00:26:00,564 Speaker 1: like it depends on what the wind conditions are. But 467 00:26:01,724 --> 00:26:04,004 Speaker 1: that was not a nuclear bomb. That was just a 468 00:26:04,484 --> 00:26:09,284 Speaker 1: that was just an accident, and that is absolutely a 469 00:26:09,524 --> 00:26:13,164 Speaker 1: very real thing. Yeah, this shit is really really serious. 470 00:26:14,084 --> 00:26:17,684 Speaker 1: And you know, I think that one of the really 471 00:26:17,724 --> 00:26:20,804 Speaker 1: important things that the Noble Committee tried to do was 472 00:26:21,084 --> 00:26:24,764 Speaker 1: kind of try to re up this historic memory that's 473 00:26:24,844 --> 00:26:28,324 Speaker 1: dying out, because people who are survivors of World War 474 00:26:28,364 --> 00:26:32,364 Speaker 1: Two in general, you know, are dying, right. We're living 475 00:26:32,404 --> 00:26:35,564 Speaker 1: with kind of the the end of that generation. And 476 00:26:36,124 --> 00:26:38,804 Speaker 1: you see, and I think that this is you know, 477 00:26:38,884 --> 00:26:41,564 Speaker 1: this is a trend all over the world. It's not 478 00:26:41,684 --> 00:26:44,404 Speaker 1: just kind of nuclear threat. But you see people who 479 00:26:44,404 --> 00:26:46,884 Speaker 1: are like, oh, well, maybe the Holocaust never even happened, right, 480 00:26:46,964 --> 00:26:50,404 Speaker 1: like the Holocaust denihilism. People are like, oh, prove it, right, 481 00:26:50,484 --> 00:26:52,924 Speaker 1: prove that this happened. Oh it wasn't so bad. Like 482 00:26:53,724 --> 00:26:57,484 Speaker 1: people forgetting like what an absolute horror this was. And 483 00:26:58,164 --> 00:27:01,884 Speaker 1: now you have Vladimir Putin the threatening saying, oh, you know, 484 00:27:02,004 --> 00:27:04,644 Speaker 1: like I want to make this nuclear threat real. And 485 00:27:04,684 --> 00:27:08,564 Speaker 1: what people don't, you know, tend to like gloss over 486 00:27:08,604 --> 00:27:11,884 Speaker 1: and Thomas Shelling's work is that, you know, in his 487 00:27:12,124 --> 00:27:15,444 Speaker 1: very famous example of the game of chicken, right, where 488 00:27:15,524 --> 00:27:19,124 Speaker 1: you have two cars going head to head right, and 489 00:27:19,204 --> 00:27:21,004 Speaker 1: you have to be the second. You have to not 490 00:27:21,084 --> 00:27:23,284 Speaker 1: swerve right, you want the other guy to swerve. That's 491 00:27:23,404 --> 00:27:25,524 Speaker 1: the only way that you win. He says that, you know, 492 00:27:25,564 --> 00:27:27,564 Speaker 1: the way that you win is you rip out your 493 00:27:27,644 --> 00:27:31,044 Speaker 1: steering wheel and you throw it out the window. Because 494 00:27:31,044 --> 00:27:33,444 Speaker 1: that's a credible commitment. Now they know, right, you can't 495 00:27:33,444 --> 00:27:36,284 Speaker 1: swerve like there's not so they have to. But what 496 00:27:36,444 --> 00:27:40,084 Speaker 1: happens if both people do that at the exact same 497 00:27:40,124 --> 00:27:44,084 Speaker 1: time and throw their steering wheels out the window? They die? 498 00:27:44,204 --> 00:27:48,444 Speaker 3: Right, And it's a lot of Doctor Strangelove too, yeah, 499 00:27:49,044 --> 00:27:52,524 Speaker 3: which is, according to some experts, a parody of Vnoyman. 500 00:27:53,924 --> 00:27:56,404 Speaker 2: But so yeah. 501 00:27:56,524 --> 00:27:59,644 Speaker 3: What they wanted was a machine that would automatically retaliate 502 00:28:00,084 --> 00:28:02,404 Speaker 3: if it detected an attack. Because even if you therefore 503 00:28:02,444 --> 00:28:05,604 Speaker 3: incapacitate the state, this is the one out to mutual 504 00:28:05,644 --> 00:28:06,364 Speaker 3: assured destruction. 505 00:28:06,444 --> 00:28:06,564 Speaker 1: Right. 506 00:28:06,564 --> 00:28:09,204 Speaker 3: If you can destroy all their facilities before they have 507 00:28:09,404 --> 00:28:13,364 Speaker 3: answer retally, before they can decide, then. 508 00:28:13,324 --> 00:28:14,364 Speaker 2: You can do a first strike. 509 00:28:14,524 --> 00:28:16,684 Speaker 3: Right. This is partly why there are so many different 510 00:28:16,884 --> 00:28:21,404 Speaker 3: nuclear triad, air, sea, space, et cetera. You want to 511 00:28:21,404 --> 00:28:27,084 Speaker 3: make it impossible to do it incapacitation strike. So yeah, 512 00:28:27,084 --> 00:28:30,004 Speaker 3: the doomsday machine would have launched back automatically, and so 513 00:28:31,604 --> 00:28:33,044 Speaker 3: you know, look, I mean the one thing I'll say 514 00:28:33,204 --> 00:28:37,644 Speaker 3: is like it's another example of where game theory kind 515 00:28:37,644 --> 00:28:41,364 Speaker 3: of has worked pretty well in the real world. I 516 00:28:41,364 --> 00:28:44,484 Speaker 3: think there's also a lot of there's also a lot 517 00:28:44,484 --> 00:28:47,444 Speaker 3: of back channeling. I think with this stuff, it's a 518 00:28:47,564 --> 00:28:51,124 Speaker 3: very coordinated dance about like what exactly are you saying, 519 00:28:51,204 --> 00:28:53,124 Speaker 3: which maybe it should make you feel better, is that, like, 520 00:28:54,644 --> 00:28:56,044 Speaker 3: you know, there are the red. 521 00:28:55,844 --> 00:28:57,084 Speaker 2: Phone, so to speak. 522 00:28:57,084 --> 00:28:58,924 Speaker 3: I don't know if there's literally a red phone anymore, right, 523 00:28:58,964 --> 00:29:02,684 Speaker 3: but like all these things exist for a reason. 524 00:29:03,684 --> 00:29:06,324 Speaker 1: Yeah, but I do want to you know, there was 525 00:29:06,364 --> 00:29:08,924 Speaker 1: something else that you said, which I think is important, 526 00:29:08,964 --> 00:29:11,524 Speaker 1: and I'll so kind of the other element of the 527 00:29:11,564 --> 00:29:15,084 Speaker 1: Doctor strangel Of thing is that accidents happen, right, and 528 00:29:15,324 --> 00:29:18,324 Speaker 1: if you don't have a human on the other side. 529 00:29:18,324 --> 00:29:21,564 Speaker 1: And this actually this is where also that p doomes 530 00:29:21,604 --> 00:29:26,884 Speaker 1: of nuclear war and AI kind of are dovetailing, right, 531 00:29:26,924 --> 00:29:29,124 Speaker 1: and one feeds into the other as you kind of 532 00:29:29,564 --> 00:29:33,724 Speaker 1: seed control automation decisions, et cetera. I want to just 533 00:29:34,324 --> 00:29:40,364 Speaker 1: shout out Stanislav Petrov, who was a lieutenant colonel in 534 00:29:40,444 --> 00:29:45,564 Speaker 1: the Soviet Air Defense and he basically single handedly prevented 535 00:29:45,604 --> 00:29:48,044 Speaker 1: nuclear war in nineteen eighty three when there was a 536 00:29:48,044 --> 00:29:52,884 Speaker 1: false signal that the US was attacking the Soviet Union 537 00:29:53,324 --> 00:29:57,084 Speaker 1: and his decision, he decided, you know, he couldn't reach anyone, 538 00:29:57,324 --> 00:30:00,524 Speaker 1: so like, it's plausible that there could have been some 539 00:30:00,564 --> 00:30:05,204 Speaker 1: sort of retaliatory strike, and he decided that this was 540 00:30:05,324 --> 00:30:08,764 Speaker 1: a mistake, that this was there was not actually a strike, 541 00:30:08,804 --> 00:30:11,804 Speaker 1: and he made the decision to cancel the launch and 542 00:30:11,844 --> 00:30:14,404 Speaker 1: to not launch nuclear weapons. Now he was right, right, 543 00:30:14,484 --> 00:30:18,604 Speaker 1: it was actually a glitch. There was no nuclear attack 544 00:30:18,644 --> 00:30:20,884 Speaker 1: against the Soviet Union. But now imagine that it was 545 00:30:20,884 --> 00:30:23,404 Speaker 1: someone else, right, and imagine that there was someone who 546 00:30:23,404 --> 00:30:26,724 Speaker 1: didn't kind of have the guts to make that sort 547 00:30:26,764 --> 00:30:30,804 Speaker 1: of decision, or imagine that it was an AI And we, 548 00:30:31,604 --> 00:30:33,644 Speaker 1: you know, we we're living in a very different world, 549 00:30:33,724 --> 00:30:36,524 Speaker 1: or not living in any world, because then Soviet Union 550 00:30:36,604 --> 00:30:40,444 Speaker 1: actually physically launches nuclear weapons. Obviously, then the United States 551 00:30:40,524 --> 00:30:44,724 Speaker 1: retaliate's and you know, I don't think even uh yeah, 552 00:30:44,924 --> 00:30:47,804 Speaker 1: cluster fuck scenes a little bit two week of a 553 00:30:47,844 --> 00:30:51,924 Speaker 1: phrase for that, But we're not living in a very 554 00:30:52,244 --> 00:30:56,844 Speaker 1: happy place, and I think that it's really important to 555 00:30:56,884 --> 00:30:59,924 Speaker 1: remember moments like that as well, as we think about 556 00:30:59,964 --> 00:31:02,924 Speaker 1: p doom, as we think about nuclear determs, as we 557 00:31:03,004 --> 00:31:06,924 Speaker 1: think about the taboo on using nuclear weapons. These are 558 00:31:06,964 --> 00:31:12,004 Speaker 1: all really important questions, and the world is forgetting and 559 00:31:12,844 --> 00:31:15,564 Speaker 1: not just forgetting, but saying, oh fuck it. You know, 560 00:31:15,604 --> 00:31:18,124 Speaker 1: there are lots of things going on right now that 561 00:31:18,164 --> 00:31:21,164 Speaker 1: make it a pretty dangerous moment. So so I think 562 00:31:21,204 --> 00:31:24,524 Speaker 1: that it's really crucial to have these conversations and to 563 00:31:24,804 --> 00:31:27,124 Speaker 1: try to employ game theory so that we don't all 564 00:31:27,324 --> 00:31:28,844 Speaker 1: you kill kill each other. 565 00:31:30,564 --> 00:31:32,884 Speaker 2: Do you think Trump would increase or decrease a chance 566 00:31:32,924 --> 00:31:34,004 Speaker 2: of a nuclear conflict. 567 00:31:36,004 --> 00:31:38,364 Speaker 1: I think that's a I'm not sure. I think that 568 00:31:38,524 --> 00:31:42,884 Speaker 1: he would probably. It's funny because I think back to Khrushchev, right, 569 00:31:43,284 --> 00:31:47,124 Speaker 1: We've talked about the Cuban missile crisis, and I think 570 00:31:47,244 --> 00:31:49,924 Speaker 1: one of the reasons that Kennedy thought that the risk 571 00:31:50,044 --> 00:31:54,604 Speaker 1: of nuclear war was so high was because Khrushchev was 572 00:31:54,804 --> 00:32:00,404 Speaker 1: fucking insane, like people he could he didn't you know, 573 00:32:00,684 --> 00:32:03,884 Speaker 1: people didn't know what might happen, and that was but 574 00:32:03,924 --> 00:32:06,604 Speaker 1: that was always kind of part of it. Wasn't just him, 575 00:32:06,964 --> 00:32:12,604 Speaker 1: right all of the Soviet leaders. They tried to cultivate 576 00:32:12,844 --> 00:32:16,484 Speaker 1: that insanity on purpose, because if I'm crazy and you 577 00:32:16,524 --> 00:32:19,924 Speaker 1: don't know what I'm capable of, then you have to 578 00:32:19,964 --> 00:32:23,204 Speaker 1: tread carefully. And I think Trump is crazy in that sense, right, 579 00:32:23,244 --> 00:32:25,364 Speaker 1: you don't know what he's capable of. I think he's 580 00:32:25,444 --> 00:32:30,084 Speaker 1: much more capable of using nuclear weapons than Kamala Harris 581 00:32:30,084 --> 00:32:35,084 Speaker 1: would be, or basically than anyone else. But I don't 582 00:32:35,124 --> 00:32:38,204 Speaker 1: know if having him in power would deter other countries 583 00:32:38,244 --> 00:32:40,924 Speaker 1: because they're scared of him. So I think on the 584 00:32:40,964 --> 00:32:44,404 Speaker 1: margin it would probably my pedom would probably go up. 585 00:32:44,804 --> 00:32:46,444 Speaker 1: So do you have a do you have a point 586 00:32:46,444 --> 00:32:46,764 Speaker 1: of view? 587 00:32:49,404 --> 00:32:53,084 Speaker 3: I think he might lower it slightly, interesting because I 588 00:32:53,084 --> 00:32:57,084 Speaker 3: think he he does create a little bit more of 589 00:32:57,124 --> 00:33:00,084 Speaker 3: a deterrent potentially. I don't think he's I don't think 590 00:33:00,084 --> 00:33:03,804 Speaker 3: he's warmongering, actually, right, I think he's crazy in lots 591 00:33:03,804 --> 00:33:06,644 Speaker 3: of ways. I don't think that's the way in which 592 00:33:06,644 --> 00:33:08,764 Speaker 3: she used crazy, And yeah, I don't know. 593 00:33:09,724 --> 00:33:11,604 Speaker 1: Yeah, I just don't know that we know the ways 594 00:33:11,644 --> 00:33:13,684 Speaker 1: in which he is crazy. And he's you know, and 595 00:33:13,724 --> 00:33:15,964 Speaker 1: he's getting on in years, and I think that there 596 00:33:16,084 --> 00:33:18,924 Speaker 1: is you know, and he's ranting. I think there is 597 00:33:18,964 --> 00:33:22,004 Speaker 1: some kind of threat to personality change that comes with 598 00:33:22,084 --> 00:33:24,884 Speaker 1: dimension and age and all of these things. So I 599 00:33:24,964 --> 00:33:27,284 Speaker 1: just don't know. Right This is not something where I 600 00:33:27,284 --> 00:33:28,964 Speaker 1: can give you a clear cut answer, as I've said, 601 00:33:29,044 --> 00:33:31,524 Speaker 1: but I think it's interesting to consider, and I think 602 00:33:31,524 --> 00:33:35,004 Speaker 1: that in general, the threat of nuclear war has probably 603 00:33:35,084 --> 00:33:38,764 Speaker 1: gone up in much more in the last few years 604 00:33:39,084 --> 00:33:40,644 Speaker 1: that it has in a very long time. 605 00:33:43,484 --> 00:33:45,164 Speaker 3: Speaking of Trump, you want to talk a little bit 606 00:33:45,204 --> 00:33:46,884 Speaker 3: of politics. 607 00:33:46,604 --> 00:34:02,924 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's do that after the break. Name all right, 608 00:34:03,524 --> 00:34:06,644 Speaker 1: last time we spoke last week, Nate, you said that 609 00:34:06,684 --> 00:34:09,364 Speaker 1: there really hadn't been many quality polls that had come out. 610 00:34:10,084 --> 00:34:11,884 Speaker 1: This was kind of the first. That was the first 611 00:34:11,884 --> 00:34:14,724 Speaker 1: week after the vice presidential debate, which you know what 612 00:34:14,804 --> 00:34:17,884 Speaker 1: vice presidential debate. I think at this point everyone forgot 613 00:34:18,244 --> 00:34:21,164 Speaker 1: that that even happened. But there have been some more 614 00:34:21,244 --> 00:34:23,764 Speaker 1: higher quality polls that have come out in the intrum. 615 00:34:24,124 --> 00:34:27,564 Speaker 1: So so let's let's talk through it, and let's talk 616 00:34:27,684 --> 00:34:31,164 Speaker 1: through kind of the current state of the election. 617 00:34:32,524 --> 00:34:38,564 Speaker 3: Yeah, so we're taping this FI on Tuesday, October fifteenth. 618 00:34:39,124 --> 00:34:42,564 Speaker 3: I have not run the model update for the day. 619 00:34:42,644 --> 00:34:44,044 Speaker 3: I'm going to do that as soon as we get 620 00:34:44,044 --> 00:34:49,124 Speaker 3: a break Harris as a last night's model run. Yes, 621 00:34:49,164 --> 00:34:52,524 Speaker 3: the afternoons fifty chance of winning Trump at forty eight 622 00:34:52,524 --> 00:34:54,724 Speaker 3: point seven up to one hundred, because there's an zero 623 00:34:54,764 --> 00:34:59,644 Speaker 3: point three percent chance of a tie. I wonder with 624 00:34:59,684 --> 00:35:02,324 Speaker 3: every update if Harris is going to dip under fifty percent, Like, 625 00:35:02,364 --> 00:35:04,244 Speaker 3: not that it really matter. It's not that forty nine 626 00:35:04,924 --> 00:35:08,404 Speaker 3: versus fifty one or magically that different. But you know, 627 00:35:08,524 --> 00:35:11,404 Speaker 3: you've seen you've had a slightly good week of polling 628 00:35:11,484 --> 00:35:14,924 Speaker 3: for for Trump, right where this two point lead that 629 00:35:14,964 --> 00:35:17,524 Speaker 3: Harris had and kind of Michigan, pennsylvani Wisconsin's kind of 630 00:35:17,524 --> 00:35:20,964 Speaker 3: turned into like a one point lead or a five 631 00:35:21,004 --> 00:35:22,724 Speaker 3: tenths of a point lead, and that's just not a 632 00:35:22,804 --> 00:35:26,044 Speaker 3: very safe position. But like all seven of the closest 633 00:35:26,044 --> 00:35:30,044 Speaker 3: states remain within a point, and you know, and sub level, 634 00:35:30,044 --> 00:35:33,084 Speaker 3: I'm not sure what more there is to be sad 635 00:35:33,204 --> 00:35:35,724 Speaker 3: apart from like it seems like we're locked into like 636 00:35:36,724 --> 00:35:40,484 Speaker 3: a very close election where you won't know, we won't 637 00:35:40,524 --> 00:35:42,084 Speaker 3: know much in the morning, we may not know much 638 00:35:42,084 --> 00:35:43,444 Speaker 3: in the evening. I mean, look, there is a chance 639 00:35:43,484 --> 00:35:45,164 Speaker 3: that the polls are all off in the same direction, 640 00:35:46,924 --> 00:35:49,444 Speaker 3: so uncertain is not quite the same thing as guaranteeing 641 00:35:49,484 --> 00:35:50,204 Speaker 3: a close election. 642 00:35:52,124 --> 00:35:55,204 Speaker 2: But it you know, I mean, keep listening to podcast 643 00:35:55,284 --> 00:35:55,764 Speaker 2: folks and. 644 00:35:55,724 --> 00:35:58,564 Speaker 3: Reading the newsletter, but like, like, how much more are 645 00:35:58,604 --> 00:36:00,404 Speaker 3: you learning from the polls at this point? 646 00:36:00,964 --> 00:36:02,004 Speaker 2: All they're really saying is. 647 00:36:01,964 --> 00:36:04,604 Speaker 3: Just it's just the average of the past two elections anyway, right, 648 00:36:04,644 --> 00:36:06,964 Speaker 3: So I'm not sure we're learning all that much. 649 00:36:08,124 --> 00:36:12,124 Speaker 1: I have a question for you know, so relatively good 650 00:36:12,164 --> 00:36:15,364 Speaker 1: week of calling for Trump, Harris still ahead in your model, 651 00:36:15,804 --> 00:36:19,524 Speaker 1: why does polymarket currently have Trump at fifty eight percent 652 00:36:19,684 --> 00:36:24,084 Speaker 1: to Harris's forty one percent. That's a huge Like, that's 653 00:36:24,124 --> 00:36:26,484 Speaker 1: a huge difference. What's going on? 654 00:36:28,284 --> 00:36:34,884 Speaker 3: So what you had last week was some whale activity? 655 00:36:35,164 --> 00:36:39,564 Speaker 3: You know, what makes a gambling world work? Are whales? 656 00:36:40,324 --> 00:36:45,564 Speaker 3: Whales are rich people who are degenerates, often bad at 657 00:36:46,524 --> 00:36:48,644 Speaker 3: their chosen craft, don't. I mean the term whales a 658 00:36:48,644 --> 00:36:50,804 Speaker 3: little bit ambiguous, Like in crypto at refers to someone 659 00:36:50,804 --> 00:36:56,044 Speaker 3: who who was potentially a smart, very wealthy trader, but 660 00:36:56,164 --> 00:37:01,844 Speaker 3: generally the connotation is that you're a degenerate gambler who 661 00:37:01,924 --> 00:37:03,404 Speaker 3: makes a lot of money for the casinos or for 662 00:37:03,444 --> 00:37:08,204 Speaker 3: the house. So Elon Musk last week began tweeting about Polymarket, 663 00:37:08,204 --> 00:37:12,404 Speaker 3: where I should run people that I paid advisor and 664 00:37:13,004 --> 00:37:16,924 Speaker 3: that moved the numbers without any real underlying justification from 665 00:37:16,964 --> 00:37:20,244 Speaker 3: the polling data that day. And you can tell because 666 00:37:20,804 --> 00:37:22,524 Speaker 3: there are a couple of things that were unusual. One 667 00:37:22,564 --> 00:37:25,164 Speaker 3: was that you didn't actually see any shift in the 668 00:37:25,164 --> 00:37:28,044 Speaker 3: popular vote contract. It was just the electoral college, the 669 00:37:28,124 --> 00:37:30,924 Speaker 3: higher profile one. But a smart trader would be looking 670 00:37:31,004 --> 00:37:33,684 Speaker 3: if there's a shift toward Trump, that would manifest itself 671 00:37:33,684 --> 00:37:35,844 Speaker 3: in all the markets, and not just the electoral College 672 00:37:35,844 --> 00:37:39,644 Speaker 3: overall market. But it's a lot of activity from a 673 00:37:39,684 --> 00:37:43,164 Speaker 3: relatively small number of traders. Now, since then, our model 674 00:37:43,204 --> 00:37:47,204 Speaker 3: and other models, more actually our model than others, have 675 00:37:47,244 --> 00:37:50,324 Speaker 3: shifted a bit toward Trump. Right, So it's like fifty 676 00:37:50,364 --> 00:37:52,284 Speaker 3: one percent. I mean it had been as high as 677 00:37:52,284 --> 00:37:55,124 Speaker 3: fifty eight percent for Harris in September twenty seventh. So 678 00:37:55,324 --> 00:37:57,244 Speaker 3: Trump has gained a little bit. But there's also this 679 00:37:57,324 --> 00:38:04,284 Speaker 3: like disproportionate amount of nervous panic among Democrats. They kind 680 00:38:04,324 --> 00:38:07,684 Speaker 3: of feel like Kamala Harris has lost the plot, and 681 00:38:07,724 --> 00:38:10,684 Speaker 3: Democrats are perpetually worried anyway, although maybe they should be, right. 682 00:38:10,684 --> 00:38:12,404 Speaker 3: I mean, like you know, look, if it's fifty to fifty, 683 00:38:12,444 --> 00:38:16,164 Speaker 3: then you know, a coin flip for very high stakes 684 00:38:16,284 --> 00:38:20,164 Speaker 3: is more than non degenerate gamblers usually want to undertake 685 00:38:20,284 --> 00:38:22,044 Speaker 3: risk wise, and there's. 686 00:38:21,844 --> 00:38:26,164 Speaker 2: No safe path for either candidate anymore. 687 00:38:26,684 --> 00:38:28,684 Speaker 3: There's not going to be any security unless there's some 688 00:38:29,324 --> 00:38:32,004 Speaker 3: really surprising development, and we're running out of time for 689 00:38:32,004 --> 00:38:32,564 Speaker 3: that to happen. 690 00:38:33,604 --> 00:38:37,764 Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, it's clear that the Democrats are 691 00:38:37,804 --> 00:38:42,044 Speaker 1: really taking this seriously. You have former President Barack Obama 692 00:38:42,164 --> 00:38:47,124 Speaker 1: campaigning for Kamalla Harrison Pennsylvania. Maybe they're now maybe maybe 693 00:38:47,124 --> 00:38:51,604 Speaker 1: they're no regretting the decision to not have Shiro on 694 00:38:51,644 --> 00:38:57,164 Speaker 1: the ticket because because they're Yeah, we've already we've we've 695 00:38:57,204 --> 00:39:00,764 Speaker 1: talked about this ad nauseum. But you know, they're trying, 696 00:39:00,804 --> 00:39:02,924 Speaker 1: they're trying to do everything they can, like Obama is 697 00:39:02,964 --> 00:39:05,204 Speaker 1: one of their big guns, and we can you know, 698 00:39:05,284 --> 00:39:08,444 Speaker 1: this is another segment, but we can talk a little 699 00:39:08,484 --> 00:39:11,284 Speaker 1: bit about like whether you know his messaging is effective, 700 00:39:11,404 --> 00:39:13,884 Speaker 1: like what's happening. But I think there is some panic there. 701 00:39:13,924 --> 00:39:17,644 Speaker 1: There's some panic that she's losing the black vote, and like. 702 00:39:17,604 --> 00:39:20,844 Speaker 3: All of these things, losing doing less well. So the 703 00:39:20,844 --> 00:39:24,004 Speaker 3: New York Times pool, Trump is yes, fifteen percent of 704 00:39:24,004 --> 00:39:27,844 Speaker 3: the Black vote, fairly undecided's among black voters, but doing 705 00:39:27,964 --> 00:39:29,644 Speaker 3: less well the Democrat typically does. 706 00:39:29,884 --> 00:39:32,684 Speaker 1: Yes, that was that was very poorly stated on my 707 00:39:32,884 --> 00:39:35,684 Speaker 1: on my side, yes, not losing the black vote, but 708 00:39:35,884 --> 00:39:40,084 Speaker 1: doing relatively less well. And in states like Pennsylvania, every 709 00:39:40,124 --> 00:39:42,324 Speaker 1: single point matters, right, Like we have talked about this 710 00:39:42,524 --> 00:39:45,884 Speaker 1: over and over, like this is a close election. Everything matters, 711 00:39:45,964 --> 00:39:50,764 Speaker 1: Undecided voters matter, and yeah, people are clearly taking it seriously. 712 00:39:50,804 --> 00:39:52,644 Speaker 1: And you know, on the one hand, you have Elon 713 00:39:52,764 --> 00:39:55,324 Speaker 1: Musk jumping up and down on stage. On the other hand, 714 00:39:55,404 --> 00:39:56,924 Speaker 1: you have Barack Obama. 715 00:39:57,844 --> 00:40:02,764 Speaker 3: Good, I know, man, I know, he's got a little 716 00:40:02,804 --> 00:40:03,484 Speaker 3: high off of fumes. 717 00:40:03,524 --> 00:40:04,764 Speaker 2: Their good old Eelane. 718 00:40:05,884 --> 00:40:12,924 Speaker 3: Yeah, like don't you understand that politics kind of cringe, 719 00:40:13,044 --> 00:40:17,444 Speaker 3: you know anyway, But like I think people tend to 720 00:40:19,204 --> 00:40:21,404 Speaker 3: read these things like, oh, Kamala Harris is going on, 721 00:40:22,124 --> 00:40:23,844 Speaker 3: Joe Rogan, she must be desperate. It's like, well, she 722 00:40:23,844 --> 00:40:25,844 Speaker 3: probably should have been doing more of this all a 723 00:40:25,884 --> 00:40:28,284 Speaker 3: long right kind of yeah. 724 00:40:30,484 --> 00:40:32,964 Speaker 1: Yeah, and and the All In podcast right after Trump 725 00:40:33,044 --> 00:40:35,564 Speaker 1: went on, like she should have absolutely gone on, Like 726 00:40:35,604 --> 00:40:38,324 Speaker 1: there are big media appearances that like she should have 727 00:40:38,364 --> 00:40:39,524 Speaker 1: absolutely done earlier. 728 00:40:40,404 --> 00:40:43,044 Speaker 3: Yeah, look, people read this as only must be desperate. 729 00:40:43,044 --> 00:40:44,484 Speaker 3: It's like, well, I don't know. I mean, you're supposed 730 00:40:44,484 --> 00:40:47,804 Speaker 3: to do campaigning, right, Uh, that's a normal thing that 731 00:40:47,884 --> 00:40:51,484 Speaker 3: you do. I think they had a period where they 732 00:40:51,564 --> 00:40:56,924 Speaker 3: just thought they'd ride the Charlie XCX rat summer Magic 733 00:40:57,044 --> 00:41:00,204 Speaker 3: vibes carpet ride straight to the White House. 734 00:41:01,924 --> 00:41:03,604 Speaker 2: And that's not how it usually it works. 735 00:41:03,644 --> 00:41:06,604 Speaker 3: I mean, she's at an electoral college disadvantage and and 736 00:41:08,004 --> 00:41:09,804 Speaker 3: you know, Trump throws a lot of shit out there. 737 00:41:11,084 --> 00:41:14,924 Speaker 3: You know, you've had much more outspoken support for Trump 738 00:41:15,004 --> 00:41:18,084 Speaker 3: among certain groups of voters. The vibes are different. I 739 00:41:18,084 --> 00:41:21,844 Speaker 3: think if you read kind of some of the backstory 740 00:41:21,884 --> 00:41:24,044 Speaker 3: of the part of Silicon Valley, it's not all Silicon Valley. 741 00:41:24,044 --> 00:41:27,284 Speaker 3: It's probably isn't most right, but you know, part of 742 00:41:27,284 --> 00:41:29,084 Speaker 3: what people have been trying to do in Silicon Valley 743 00:41:29,124 --> 00:41:32,324 Speaker 3: is to say it's okay to openly support Trump and 744 00:41:32,724 --> 00:41:34,844 Speaker 3: that will create a permission structure for others to support 745 00:41:34,924 --> 00:41:37,844 Speaker 3: him too. And so, you know, Twitter is a very 746 00:41:37,844 --> 00:41:40,364 Speaker 3: different platform than it was four years ago. 747 00:41:41,684 --> 00:41:42,484 Speaker 2: The mood is different. 748 00:41:42,484 --> 00:41:45,924 Speaker 3: I think, ironically, the fact that people seem like a 749 00:41:46,004 --> 00:41:48,404 Speaker 3: little bit less pissed off as they were in twenty twenty, 750 00:41:48,444 --> 00:41:54,084 Speaker 3: maybe democrats like actually want apocalyptic thinking where people are like, okay, 751 00:41:54,084 --> 00:41:56,204 Speaker 3: but yeah, I you know, look, I think one feminal 752 00:41:56,244 --> 00:41:59,964 Speaker 3: problem democrats have is it's hard to say that every 753 00:41:59,964 --> 00:42:03,124 Speaker 3: election is the most important election of all time without 754 00:42:03,764 --> 00:42:07,044 Speaker 3: voters starting to wonder if you just always say that. 755 00:42:08,244 --> 00:42:12,764 Speaker 1: Yep. And on that note, let's see, let's see what 756 00:42:12,804 --> 00:42:15,244 Speaker 1: happens next week, because this is one of the most 757 00:42:15,244 --> 00:42:19,764 Speaker 1: important elections of all time, as we've talked about you know, 758 00:42:19,804 --> 00:42:22,124 Speaker 1: we've talked about pe Doo, and we've talked about you know, 759 00:42:22,204 --> 00:42:24,404 Speaker 1: this is going to matter for a lot of different things. 760 00:42:24,804 --> 00:42:28,524 Speaker 1: And yeah, let's just see what the updates show next week. 761 00:42:29,324 --> 00:42:32,444 Speaker 1: And Elon Musk, please please stop making us watch you 762 00:42:32,764 --> 00:42:35,644 Speaker 1: jump up and down on stages. Thank you very much. 763 00:42:36,844 --> 00:42:39,284 Speaker 1: That's a personal plea from one of the co hosts 764 00:42:39,324 --> 00:42:45,404 Speaker 1: of Risky Business. 765 00:42:46,284 --> 00:42:49,164 Speaker 2: Risky Business is hosted by me Nate Silver and. 766 00:42:49,164 --> 00:42:50,284 Speaker 1: Me Maria Kanakova. 767 00:42:50,764 --> 00:42:53,884 Speaker 3: The show was a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. 768 00:42:54,644 --> 00:42:58,164 Speaker 3: This episode was produced by Isabel Carter. Our associate producer 769 00:42:58,244 --> 00:43:02,244 Speaker 3: is Gabriel Hunter Cheen. Our engineer is Sarah Bruger. Our 770 00:43:02,284 --> 00:43:04,204 Speaker 3: executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 771 00:43:04,444 --> 00:43:06,164 Speaker 1: If you want to listen to an ad free version, 772 00:43:06,244 --> 00:43:08,884 Speaker 1: sign up for Pushkin Plus. For six ninety nine a month, 773 00:43:09,004 --> 00:43:11,964 Speaker 1: you get access to add free listening. Thanks for tuning in.