1 00:00:01,320 --> 00:00:02,000 Speaker 1: The volume. 2 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 2: This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. Let's welcome in 3 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 2: a special guest. 4 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 1: He's a regular on the podcast at least once or 5 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,280 Speaker 1: twice a year because his stories are legendary. He loves gambling. 6 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:26,439 Speaker 1: He says he's not doing those mpak but he's lost 7 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: a lot of weight. He's got that that James harden 8 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: Beeard going on Preston Johnson, How are you, Preston. 9 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 3: I'm fantastic. How are you doing the feel it's been 10 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 3: a few months. Things are good, excellent. Yes, it's always 11 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 3: good to catch up with you. 12 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:42,520 Speaker 1: I know you're a man about town, a global icon 13 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:45,159 Speaker 1: if you will, traveling to London all the time for 14 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 1: your soccer team. What's the latest with it in the 15 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: world of Preston these days? 16 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of it's still Crawley Town. We're in 17 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 3: Leak two with Rex and we just played them on 18 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 3: Saturday and lost. So that hurts a little bit to 19 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 3: lose to Ryan Reynolds, but we outshot them twenty five 20 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 3: to ten. You know, sometimes the process is important instead 21 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 3: of the results. So we played all right. We can't 22 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 3: be too frustrated with that at the end of the day, 23 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 3: and we're playing better in general. We know we're eighth 24 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 3: on the table, four points off the top spot. There's 25 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 3: a bunch of teams tied with us actually fit through 26 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 3: eighth with twenty points, So a lot different story than 27 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:20,040 Speaker 3: last year where we had to make a lot of 28 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:23,399 Speaker 3: decisions that were hard that as we were battling relegation 29 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 3: and in this case, you know, we're fighting for top 30 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 3: seven playoff for promotion position and yeah. 31 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 2: That's amazing. 32 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: By the way, how is Reynolds's team Wrexham. I haven't 33 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,319 Speaker 1: seen the documentary. I hear great things, but how's their squad? 34 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 3: They're good? Yeah, yeah, they are good. I mean a 35 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 3: lot of people were like, oh, welcome to the e FL, 36 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 3: welcome to the league. They're stacked. They just they are 37 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 3: just to get out of the National League, the league below, 38 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 3: you have to be pretty good. And the team that 39 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:50,919 Speaker 3: got promoted with them, Notts Counties top of the table 40 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 3: and Wrexham's tied with us right now at twenty points, 41 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:55,919 Speaker 3: so they're going to be in the mix for sure. 42 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 3: They're actually pretty loaded, so I have to give them 43 00:01:58,320 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 3: credit for that for sure. 44 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 1: I wish I could say the same about Nakaksa's been 45 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: a rough season. We are in the cellar. Not great, 46 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 1: just a couple tough losses. But the good news is 47 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: we've talked about the process. You know, we fired our 48 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: coach who wouldn't play the young guys. Now we're playing 49 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: our young guys. They had four great results, but Preston, 50 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 1: we were tied one one and then gave up a 51 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 1: PK in like the ninety second minute, and then we 52 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: pressed to get another one and they scored and our 53 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:24,800 Speaker 1: team was deflated, and then we came out flat lost 54 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:25,359 Speaker 1: the next game. 55 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 2: So you know how that is man? Soccer's weird like that. 56 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 3: It feels like man when everything it feels like everything's 57 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 3: going against you all at once, like to have a 58 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:38,119 Speaker 3: penalty in the ninety second minute when you're on a 59 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 3: good run and then it just spirals from there, and 60 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 3: it's tough. It's one of the one thing when you're 61 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 3: playing the younger guys, it's important to have a coach 62 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 3: that can obviously and still confidence regularly and you know, 63 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 3: try to teach them that it is a process based game. 64 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 3: That the problem, or I wouldn't say problem, The hardest 65 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 3: part about it from whether you're an owner, a fan, 66 00:02:57,040 --> 00:03:00,839 Speaker 3: a player, a coach. Soccer or football is so high 67 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 3: variance in that every game is worth so much, but 68 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 3: one moment in a soccer match determines whether you're losing 69 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 3: or winning very frequently, and it's like just random. It's 70 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:13,919 Speaker 3: just so random. Like we can outshoot Rexham twenty five 71 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 3: to ten and lose one mill like it just happens. 72 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 3: You can have a penalty and extra time in a 73 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 3: game you should be getting a result and then instead 74 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 3: you actually give up another goal and everyone's to play 75 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 3: like one little moment like that, and it might have 76 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 3: been a bad call for all we know, and it 77 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 3: was a referee thing. Like it's just it's so tough 78 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 3: to like think long term, but that's what you have 79 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 3: to do, and you have to be forward thinking and 80 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 3: then just confident in whatever you're using, whether it's data 81 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 3: or scouts or whatever, that it's going to play out 82 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 3: in the end or be better in the end. 83 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 1: Let me spin this to the NFL because it's a 84 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 1: similar topic. So the Cowboys were all high this year. 85 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 1: Everybody was bullish on them, potential Super Bowl team. They 86 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: go to San Francisco. I think there was professional money 87 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 1: on Dallas. If memory serves like everybody loved Dallas. They 88 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 1: were the perceived sharp side, and they get their doors 89 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 1: blown off forty two ten and now people are on 90 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: the well. 91 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 2: What do we do with Dak Prescott? Well, what do 92 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 2: we do with McCarthy? 93 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 1: This is something I've been talking about, Like, I don't 94 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: think you can extend Dak at like forty plus million 95 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 1: a year and then expect to keep the team together, 96 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 1: Like now Jerry Jones is getting asked about it now, Preston, 97 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 1: you know, obviously NFL the numbers are different, and you 98 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 1: can kick the can down the road like the Saints 99 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,160 Speaker 1: did with Breeze there at the end. I don't know 100 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:24,040 Speaker 1: what's your gut feeling on this Dallas team. They come 101 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:25,920 Speaker 1: out here to SOFI, or maybe they stay out here. 102 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 2: I haven't checked. If they stayed out west. 103 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 1: They'll have a home court of homefield advantage at so FI. 104 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 1: But they lose this game and fall to three and three, 105 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: and it's like, all right, well, they're definitely behind the 106 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:37,279 Speaker 1: Lions in the NFC. We know they're behind the Eagles 107 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: and forty nine ers, Like, I don't know what are 108 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 1: you doing with Dak and Dallas? 109 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 3: I believe they're small favorites, right, like two two and 110 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 3: a half point favorites against the Chargers, who are coming 111 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:47,919 Speaker 3: off of a bye, if I recall. But so, I mean, 112 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:49,919 Speaker 3: it's close to a coin flip game. It's not quite, 113 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 3: but you know, in theory, they absolutely could be three 114 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 3: and three after this. I think the interesting thing here was, 115 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 3: if you remember, before they routed the Giants was a 116 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 3: thirty eight three final. The Giants have their own issues, 117 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 3: and everyone seemed to think, oh, okay, Cowboys are good, 118 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 3: they're fine, and the Niners that you were right at, 119 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 3: moved from four to three and a half. But the 120 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 3: week before the Giants game, everyone was talking about how 121 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 3: the Cowboys were pretty depleted, especially defensively, with injuries just 122 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 3: after the first three or four games of the season, 123 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 3: and so then suddenly they forget after one thirty eight 124 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 3: three result against the Giants. I actually just don't know 125 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:24,560 Speaker 3: if they're healthy enough or good enough this season anyways, 126 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 3: at least relative to where the Niners and Eagles are. 127 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,040 Speaker 3: So then your question is perfect longer term than is 128 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 3: Dak the right answer or not. I mean, here's a 129 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:35,479 Speaker 3: question if brock Party's right answer, If the rest of 130 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 3: your team's good enough then Dak should theoretically be. But 131 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 3: what's the difference Dak making forty million and Partty making 132 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 3: eight hundred and ninety thousand, Like, that's like such a 133 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 3: gap a how you can bolster the squad around you 134 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:48,159 Speaker 3: that It's very much what the Ravens that I deal with, 135 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 3: right with Lamar Jackson and trying to figure out if 136 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:51,839 Speaker 3: he was going to be their future and how they 137 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 3: were going to build around him. I personally would think 138 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:59,159 Speaker 3: there's more value in a replacement level whoever it is, 139 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:01,480 Speaker 3: finding it via draft after free agency quarterback for a 140 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 3: lot cheaper and spending around than it is spending forty 141 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 3: million on Dak Prescott. Like, do you consider him a 142 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 3: top ten quarterback in the league? Off the top of 143 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:09,919 Speaker 3: my head, I don't think he is. 144 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:12,040 Speaker 1: I mean, you know I said this and people got 145 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 1: all angry with me. But like when Daniel Jones was 146 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 1: getting his contract, I was like, I'd rather have Cooper Rush. 147 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: You know, we've only seen small sample sizes of him, 148 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 1: but like you put Cooper Rush in there, he goes 149 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 1: I think three and oher with Dallas and then they 150 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 1: lost to the Eagles. But it's like, yeah, I mean 151 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 1: Cooper Rush is cheap. Now, listen, we haven't seen enough 152 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 1: of him to know if he's for real. I don't 153 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 1: even know where he went to college. You probably know 154 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 1: because you know college well, but like. 155 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 3: Did you go to I think it's like Central Michigan. 156 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 3: He's a Mac guy. 157 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,039 Speaker 1: I think, yeah, oh, he's okay in Matt guy like 158 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:37,160 Speaker 1: again brock perty right system. 159 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 3: Now. 160 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 1: The problem with Dallas, though, is the coaching, like Shanahan 161 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: is ultra conservative. 162 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 3: You know. 163 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 1: I don't know if you remember. It was the third quarter, 164 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: They're down twenty one to seven. It's like third and 165 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 1: four in San fran territory, and they call like a 166 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:51,279 Speaker 1: running back handoff and it wasn't even a Pollard. 167 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:52,279 Speaker 2: I think it was Deuce Vaughn. 168 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 1: And they gained like one yard and they're like, all right, 169 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 1: we'll just kick the field goal. Like you're playing the 170 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: nine Ers. You can't be handing off on third and 171 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 1: four and then forty nine ers come down and score 172 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 1: twenty eight ten bowl game. I don't know if the 173 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: coach is going to work there. I got big questions 174 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:08,720 Speaker 1: for Dallas, so I. 175 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 3: Skipped the part about McCarthy. I think you're absolutely right 176 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 3: that it might be a coaching. Need you see all 177 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 3: of these younger guys that are thriving across the league 178 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 3: now and McCarthy's just older school. Now, when you had 179 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 3: Kellen Moore calling plays last few years, it was okay 180 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 3: and to some degree, but you might be right, it 181 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 3: might be a combination of both. But I just don't 182 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 3: think you can pay forty million for a quarterback that's 183 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 3: league averaged to slightly abovely gaverage. I think Dack's in 184 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 3: that fifteen to ten range, but it's just that's not 185 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 3: going to be a viable pathway to a super Bowl. 186 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 3: I don't think. 187 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 1: Okay, now you know about building up tearing down soccer teams, 188 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 1: what about the Minnesota Vikings with Kirk Cousins. So they 189 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: lose Jefferson to IR, they're one and four, the close, 190 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 1: close game variance is hitting them very hard. They're so 191 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 1: basically gone from last year and now justin Jefferson, I 192 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 1: are Dalvin Cook has gone. 193 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 2: Madison has not been great. The defense is a. 194 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: Joke with Flora as they just don't have talent, Like 195 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 1: why wouldn't you actively be looking to move Kirk Cousins 196 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 1: and then swan dive into Kleb Williams. 197 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 3: I think there's it's answer me this. I'm gonna ask 198 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 3: you a question first, why is it that the NFL 199 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 3: is they kind of skipped over the process of tanking 200 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 3: that the NBA embraced for so long. And it feels like, 201 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 3: especially when you have a prospect like Kayleb Williams who 202 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 3: could be a generational quarterback, the Bears, whether it's the Vikings, 203 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 3: like they should be doing that. I absolutely agree with you, 204 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 3: and you could, you know, if the Jets are like, hey, 205 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 3: we still got a shot and they go get Kirk Cousins, 206 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 3: you get more assets draft picks, and then you lose 207 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 3: essentially on purpose without saying it, and have a shot 208 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 3: of Killa Billebs. I just don't know why the NFL's 209 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:41,400 Speaker 3: never really embraced that strategy, because it absolutely when you 210 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 3: have Caleb Williams sitting there, I think is their correct one. 211 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: So I think it's like a code thing, like a 212 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 1: toughness a guy thing. Because if memory serves the Eagles, 213 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 1: do you remember that game Week seventeen, at like halftime, 214 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 1: the Eagles benched their quarterback so they could improve their 215 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 1: draft stock. Doug Peterson got crucified by the broadcast the media, 216 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 1: and then I think they fired him, right it was Peterson, Yeah, 217 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 1: it was yeah, and then they fire him instantly, people 218 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 1: like just guy won a Super Bowl like three years 219 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 1: ago and now are firing. 220 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:10,960 Speaker 3: Him, and he and he's generally analytically savvy and makes 221 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:14,439 Speaker 3: optimal decisions and yeah, I totally remember that. It's interesting. 222 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 1: So you know, they're just I think the Vikings are 223 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:18,839 Speaker 1: in a spot where the GM is relatively new. I 224 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 1: think this is year two. The head coach built up 225 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 1: equity in year one with get into the playoffs. 226 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 2: O'Connell. 227 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 1: They're not firing him, so you I think you can 228 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:29,080 Speaker 1: embrace the tank and just deal with it and go 229 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 1: for Caleb, because you know what, if you don't, it 230 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 1: looks like the Chicago Bears are going to get him 231 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: with that Carolina pick. So it's like a not a 232 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 1: race to the bottom, but it kind of is. 233 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:38,679 Speaker 3: It's like a division headbutt too. 234 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, fair, And it's what we thought that was going 235 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 1: to be Rams Cardinals, or at least I did, and 236 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 1: it appears now it's going to be between the Vikings 237 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:47,560 Speaker 1: and Bears. I don't know, you watch a lot of 238 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 1: college Caleb Williams looks pretty transformative, doesn't he. 239 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 3: I know everyone talks about it, so I feel like, 240 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:55,840 Speaker 3: if you're on Twitter or whatever, I think he's really 241 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:58,680 Speaker 3: Everyone says the cliche he's kind of like Mahomes, but 242 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:01,720 Speaker 3: he really is. He can obviously move with when he 243 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 3: needs with his feet, but the amount of improvisation and 244 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 3: creativity with what he does in and outside of the pocket. 245 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 3: And did you see the throw he made that was 246 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 3: dropped on a two point conversion when he was going 247 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 3: right and then had to step up to the left 248 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 3: and through a dart to like the front, and it 249 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:20,959 Speaker 3: was like a sliding ball in between that. I that's 250 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 3: one of the best throws I've ever seen, and then 251 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 3: it was dropped. It would have won them the game 252 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 3: end up winning anyways. And that was right after he 253 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 3: ran in a touchdown himself, like side toe touching the 254 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 3: sideline and reaching over across, Like he's just that good. 255 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:35,840 Speaker 3: So if there was ever a year for a team 256 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,680 Speaker 3: to just say we're tanking for Caleb, like an NBA team, 257 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:41,320 Speaker 3: you know, sixer style, would I think it's a season 258 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 3: you have to do it. 259 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:44,959 Speaker 1: Yeah, all these Tampa Bay fans who listen were all 260 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:46,559 Speaker 1: upset with me when I was like, listen, you guys 261 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 1: are three and one, but it's fools gold. You're not 262 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 1: going anywhere. Like I know, Baker's done well and the 263 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 1: defenses look good, but like I mean, Preston, this is 264 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 1: probably the worst thing that could happen to them. Right, 265 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:57,200 Speaker 1: you win a few games, you take yourself out of 266 00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,960 Speaker 1: a top five pick, at least it looks that way early, 267 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:01,679 Speaker 1: and you're not going to learn anywhere. We know that, right, 268 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,439 Speaker 1: Baker's not taking him anywhere. Mike Evans seems like he's 269 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 1: ready to be done with his team. Like the defense 270 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 1: is getting old in a lot of spots. I don't know, 271 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 1: but it's tough for like Todd Bowles, who knows if 272 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 1: they stink he's out the door. 273 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 2: Baker maybe his last chance. I don't know. He's been 274 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 2: on three teams in a year. 275 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 1: So I just don't know what you do. If you're 276 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 1: Tampa and you're in the front office and you're kind 277 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 1: of like pulling your hair out, why aren't we winning? 278 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 1: But I don't know how you handle that. 279 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 3: Now you try to keep winning because the playing catch 280 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 3: up the other direction towards the Vikings or the Bears. 281 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 3: I just still think it's going to pay off very often, 282 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 3: and so it might just be good enough to be 283 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:36,960 Speaker 3: nine and eight or ten and seven and make the 284 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 3: playoffs and at least you have that going for you. 285 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:41,440 Speaker 3: But you're right, it doesn't mean you have Caleb Williams 286 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 3: and your future quarterback is not going to be Baker 287 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 3: Mayfield forever. So it's one I think you just push 288 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 3: down a year and then solve in the future. But 289 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 3: I actually have to credit there. That was one of 290 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 3: the teams that I think most and I haven't followed 291 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:56,719 Speaker 3: the betting side as frequently the last year and a 292 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 3: half or two years, but over the summer most sharps 293 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 3: I knew Tampa Bay was extremely undervalued in the market, 294 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:04,080 Speaker 3: whether it was to vo in the division or just 295 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:06,319 Speaker 3: their overwins. They were projected to be one of the 296 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 3: worst teams in the league, and they're just not unless 297 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 3: you think Baker's that bad. But he's clearly better than 298 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 3: like the Zach Wilson, you know, pie piece of like 299 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 3: NFL quarterbacks. So yeah, I think they're probably just too 300 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:19,959 Speaker 3: good to even consider doing it this year. And it's 301 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 3: when they push down the road. 302 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:24,440 Speaker 1: Hearing you say Baker's better than Zach Wilson, like that 303 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 1: doesn't mean anything. But like people would say, like, well, 304 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:29,599 Speaker 1: Baker's better than Daniel Jones, and you know, Baker was 305 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 1: a number one pick and brock Perty was like the 306 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:33,079 Speaker 1: last pick in the draft. But then we don't take 307 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 1: into account the offensive coordinator. And it almost seems Preston like, 308 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 1: whoever Shanahan gets is going to be pretty damn good. 309 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: Trey Lance obviously had like no college experience. 310 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 2: He had the injury. It just it didn't happen for him. 311 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 1: But whoever McDaniel shanahan get, it seems like they're going 312 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 1: to thrive. Is that too general of a statement. 313 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 3: No, I don't think so. You know, one thing I 314 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:54,679 Speaker 3: when I was really breaking stuff down in the NFL, 315 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 3: this is probably four or five years back now. One 316 00:12:57,679 --> 00:12:59,679 Speaker 3: thing I actually was capturing with some of the next 317 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 3: gen I had when I was when I was working 318 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 3: for ESPN actually just looking at receiver separation based on 319 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 3: when the receiver is catching the ball and where the 320 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:11,480 Speaker 3: closest or nearest defender is. And one of the things 321 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 3: I was trying to figure out is my model was 322 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 3: really overvaluing like George Kittle as a tight end for 323 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 3: the forty nine ers as a fantasy prospect or betting 324 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 3: his props, and I was trying to figure out, why 325 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 3: is it like he should be like regressing and he's not. 326 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 3: And it was just because Shanahan schemes them so wide open. 327 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 3: There's obviously going to be space because Shannan's just that 328 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 3: good and it doesn't actually even matter whose quarterback is. 329 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 3: And now you had McCaffrey, which a lot of people 330 00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 3: were unsure of, but you have a weapon like that 331 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 3: to add to the mix with everyone else, Like he's 332 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 3: just one of the best to ever do it, and 333 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 3: you have to give him credit. But they've also drafted 334 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 3: accordingly to fit his needs or traded for McCaffrey to 335 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 3: fit his needs. And Rock Purty's like the perfect guy 336 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:50,839 Speaker 3: to just run a system at the rate that they 337 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:52,440 Speaker 3: needed to be done. But I think you have to 338 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 3: give credit to coaching in that system, whether it's McDaniel's. 339 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 3: I mean, the Miami story is fantastic toohim. We talked 340 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 3: about it last time I was on there were two teams. 341 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 3: I'm going to pat myself on the back because I 342 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 3: was just stealing it from other people anyways, But I said, 343 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 3: though two teams the Dolphins and the Browns that are 344 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 3: stacked if their quarterback variants, if they don't get injured 345 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:13,680 Speaker 3: right or if Deshaun Watson's a shell of themself. Those 346 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 3: are kind of the two teams that we've thrown out 347 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 3: and we spoke about a lot of it is just like, 348 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 3: if you're talented roster and you have a good coach, 349 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 3: you're going to be in the mix, as long as 350 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 3: your quarterback isn't bad. Like that's the formula. So at 351 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 3: least in the current NFL. 352 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 1: The NFL season is going strong, and DraftKings sportsbook is 353 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 1: hooking new customers up with an offer that's even stronger. 354 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 1: Bet five bucks on any game this week to score 355 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 1: two hundred dollars instantly in bonus bets, and DraftKings isn't 356 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 1: stopping there. All customers can take advantage of a sweetener 357 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: offer every game day this October, for instance, I think 358 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 1: this week you've got to give a strong, strong look. 359 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 2: It's gross, but bear with me. 360 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: The Cleveland Browns at home getting four and a half 361 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: five against San Francisco going to be a fascinating game. 362 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 1: You're buying low on Cleveland off the buy off a 363 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 1: terrible game from a rookie quarterback, and you're selling high 364 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 1: on the Niners coming off a monumental primetime win over 365 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 1: the Cowboys. Get in on the game day greatness. Download 366 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 1: the DraftKings Sports Book AAP now in use code straight fire. 367 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 1: New customers can score two hundred dollars instantly in bonus 368 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 1: bets when you bet five on the NFL. That's code 369 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 1: straight Fire only on DraftKings Sportsbook and official sports betting 370 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 1: partner of the NFL. The Crown is yours gambling problem 371 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 1: called one eight hundred gambler or visit www dot one 372 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler dot net. In New York, call eight 373 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 1: seven seven eight hope n why or text hope n 374 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 1: y four sixty seven three sixty nine. In Connecticut, help 375 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 1: is available for problem gambling called eight eight eight seven 376 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 1: eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org. 377 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 1: Please play responsibly on behalf of boot Hill Casino and 378 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 1: Resort licensee partner Golden Nugget, Lake Charles twenty one and up. 379 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 1: Age varies by jurisdiction void in Ontario. Bonus betts expire 380 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 1: one hundred sixty eight hours after issuance. See sportsbook dot 381 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 1: DraftKings dot com, slash football, terms for eligibility and deposit restrictions, 382 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 1: terms and responsible gaming resources. 383 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 2: So a lot of teams are gonna be looking for coaches. 384 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 1: Are you saying you based Shanahan McDaniel? Even the OC 385 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: in Houston is looking good with CJ. Stroud, the kid 386 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 1: Slowick of course, the Jets Scott Lafleur, and he was terrible. 387 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 1: But it seems like if you pick from that tree 388 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 1: of the McVeigh tree McVeigh O'Connell. I don't know about 389 00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 1: Zach Taylor, but he did go to a Super Bowl. 390 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 1: It seems like that's the move. Just find a creative, 391 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: young offensive guy. And if you want to go for 392 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 1: like a Ron Rivera, a Frank Reich, sorry, you're just 393 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 1: you're locking yourself into foolishness and finding another coach in 394 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 1: three or four years. 395 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 3: I mean, I think an interesting comparison of like the 396 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 3: ZAG is like Bill Belichick and the Patriots and just 397 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 3: how out of touch they seem to be. And a 398 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 3: lot of it could be mac Jones, of course, or 399 00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 3: they don't have enough talent, but like they're just he 400 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 3: just hasn't even bothered going down if there was a coach, 401 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,400 Speaker 3: a young coach with that type of mindset to call 402 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 3: offensive plays could go do it for Bill Belichick and 403 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 3: the Patriots like that's one of their top choices probably, 404 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 3: and so the fact they haven't even gone down that road, 405 00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 3: I think is pretty telling. And then you're seeing the 406 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 3: results of that, and so at some point that's going 407 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 3: to catch up and that's no longer an edge. Maybe 408 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 3: it's around now, maybe it's in two or three years, 409 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 3: but eventually it's gonna be Okay, well, what is it now? 410 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:25,200 Speaker 1: Is it? 411 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 3: Is it a difference? Is a lot of people thought 412 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 3: of Staley, who's now so so for the Chargers, but 413 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 3: with his defensive system and the rams, everyone thought he 414 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:35,639 Speaker 3: was like the new generational defensive mind. Is that still 415 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,720 Speaker 3: something for someone to you know, take over and figure out. 416 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 3: I'm not sure. But it's always trying to just be 417 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 3: a step ahead. So playing copycat now in theory wouldn't 418 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 3: pay off as frequently. So it's about being ahead of 419 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 3: whatever that next thing is. 420 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 1: The big difference between Belichick and a lot of the 421 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 1: younger coaches, to me is just a lack of self awareness. 422 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,399 Speaker 1: We saw Saban deal with this in college football. You know, 423 00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 1: he wasn't drafted, he wasn't getting superstar quarterback through high school. 424 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:04,200 Speaker 2: He was getting like good. 425 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 1: Game manager types and he would win with running in 426 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 1: defense and Derek Henry and mark Ingram and all that 427 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:11,920 Speaker 1: and a J. Mccarroon or is that perfect quarterback? Yeah, 428 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:13,600 Speaker 1: and then he was like, oh wait a minute, I'm 429 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:18,199 Speaker 1: falling behind. Cam Newton came through, and you know, he 430 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 1: then started getting young offensive guys to come and coach 431 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,719 Speaker 1: the offense, Lane Kiffin obviously being one of them, and 432 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,880 Speaker 1: it was like, WHOA Saban had the self awareness to say, 433 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: I'm done. You know, you guys handled the offense. It's 434 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 1: too new age for me. Do you think we would 435 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:34,640 Speaker 1: see that from Belichick? Because when he needed to move 436 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:36,600 Speaker 1: off Patricia, he just went to one of his old guys, 437 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 1: Bill O'Brien, And I don't see a difference. 438 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,359 Speaker 3: I don't think he's up for it, and if he is, 439 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:44,479 Speaker 3: it's kind of too late now, I think, because they 440 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 3: had a chance to kind of reset post Brady and 441 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 3: now it's just it's this weird in between state. And 442 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:51,879 Speaker 3: I'm not even to pretend to know anything about the 443 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:54,399 Speaker 3: Patriots like situation, but like a lot of people that 444 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:56,679 Speaker 3: are fans are talking about him getting fired this season? 445 00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,080 Speaker 3: Would he even continue to coach somewhere else? I don't 446 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:00,760 Speaker 3: know if that's a real thing, to be frank, but 447 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:03,120 Speaker 3: what do you do this offseason? Is it too late 448 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,159 Speaker 3: to say, hey, I was wrong because you just punted 449 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 3: two seasons away. It's a great question. But it's interesting 450 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 3: because I think you can compare this to a lot 451 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 3: of industries or generally, whether it's sports betting or just 452 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,640 Speaker 3: sports finding edges, fantasy, just being ahead of the game 453 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 3: on investing in startups like tech Ai the last couple 454 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 3: of years, right, Like you just have to be one 455 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 3: of the first to do something. And if you're playing copycat, 456 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,720 Speaker 3: at some point it crosses that threshold of it's even 457 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:33,960 Speaker 3: worth doing as opposed to trying to gamble on what 458 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:36,159 Speaker 3: could be the next thing. And so it's hard to 459 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 3: balance that if you're like, hey, let's play copycat and 460 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 3: be ten and seven every year because we're like seventh 461 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:44,199 Speaker 3: in line on how to do it this way, Like 462 00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 3: maybe that works for you if you're okay with being 463 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:48,639 Speaker 3: a fringe playoff team, but like, if you want to 464 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,199 Speaker 3: be Super Bowl contenders, then I think you have to 465 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 3: try some novel stuff, and I'm not sure Bill Belichick's 466 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 3: that guy to do that, so they might have to 467 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:56,400 Speaker 3: move on eventually. 468 00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 1: Clearly you've given thought to this, are do you? Is 469 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 1: there an out there that we have not seen? Obviously 470 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:05,760 Speaker 1: the young offensive minds from those two trees are big, 471 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:09,399 Speaker 1: but is the next one. Hey, we've got to find 472 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 1: our brock party and build around him with a stacked roster, 473 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:17,160 Speaker 1: as opposed to let's get like the number seven pick 474 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:21,679 Speaker 1: and let's try Michael Pennox from Washington or Quinn Viewers 475 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,639 Speaker 1: or whatever, and let's go for a cheap quarterback and 476 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:25,640 Speaker 1: build a stack roster. 477 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 2: Is that the next frontier or are we already there? 478 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:31,159 Speaker 3: That's an interesting one. I don't think that it was 479 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 3: necessarily intentional that the Niners said, Hey, we're going to 480 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 3: find a seventh rounder that will be our guy. It 481 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:40,800 Speaker 3: just worked out nicely. If the value in a quarterback 482 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 3: that's on a rookie contract, whether he's a first rounder 483 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 3: or seventh rounder, is so large. And I've heard some 484 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 3: other people talk about this, I couldn't reference who originally 485 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 3: kind of brought this concept to life, But if I 486 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:54,600 Speaker 3: think it's correct, and it doesn't happen. I would be 487 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 3: drafting two or three quarterbacks potentially per draft, especially if 488 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:01,919 Speaker 3: you're in need of one. Yeah, you draft if if 489 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,359 Speaker 3: you want to get Penix or yours or call it Caleb, 490 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 3: you may be Caleb. You can be a little safer 491 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 3: on you don't have to draft it. Why not draft 492 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 3: a quarterback in the first, fifth and seventh round. Why, 493 00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,879 Speaker 3: I don't know what you're gonna you get. Like teams 494 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 3: wait every year or two or sometimes three years to 495 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:19,200 Speaker 3: see if their guy they drafted was good enough. 496 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:20,919 Speaker 2: What if you had like two to. 497 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,200 Speaker 3: Three shots every year at it and then like you're 498 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 3: gonna like you're gonna hit the rock party way more 499 00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,199 Speaker 3: often or not, and than other teams are that are 500 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 3: only drafting one or zero every year. Like I think 501 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:32,880 Speaker 3: that you should be drafting multiple quarterbacks each season. There's 502 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:34,160 Speaker 3: an argument for it, at least. 503 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,919 Speaker 1: So the only one that jumps to mind, Oh my gosh, 504 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:40,400 Speaker 1: is Washington trading up to get RG three and then 505 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:44,680 Speaker 1: in the same draft they got Kirk Cousins. I'm sure 506 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 1: there have been other teams, but I mean RG three 507 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 1: was amazing. 508 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,160 Speaker 3: That's an interesting one because it kind of worked out. 509 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 3: RG three gets hurt. Obviously you had the great rookie 510 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 3: year anyway, and then Cousins turned out to be a 511 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:55,159 Speaker 3: serviceable quarterback. 512 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 1: But it's felt like there was a stigma around if 513 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,199 Speaker 1: you're not a first round pick, if you are Russell Wilson, 514 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,720 Speaker 1: well it's probably it's not really russ it's a legion 515 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 1: of Boom. It's not kirk Let's franchise tag him twice. 516 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,119 Speaker 1: It brock Purty and a seventh round pick. It feels 517 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,920 Speaker 1: like there's a stigma about anyone who's not a first 518 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:16,479 Speaker 1: round pick, and there's just this lingering doubt issue around 519 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 1: most guys. 520 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:19,639 Speaker 2: I don't know, do you feel the same one. 521 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:21,360 Speaker 1: I mean the Tom Brady think he was a game 522 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 1: manager despite winning a couple of Super Bowls. 523 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:27,200 Speaker 3: You know, I think over the course of time, more 524 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 3: often than not, first rounders will hit as being serviceable 525 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:34,119 Speaker 3: or even Super Bowl contending quarterbacks for your team. Second 526 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 3: rounders would be next third rounders. But there's no reason 527 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,480 Speaker 3: why fit six seventh rounders can't be the guy. It's 528 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:40,880 Speaker 3: just not going to hit as often. But if you're 529 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 3: taking them more frequently, you're upping your equity or your 530 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 3: your actual probability of hitting on a quarterback at that level, 531 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,119 Speaker 3: and so if you do hit on a seventh rounder, 532 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 3: you literally don't have to pay him even a million 533 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,920 Speaker 3: dollars a year in his rookie deal. Like, that's so valuable. 534 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:59,439 Speaker 3: So I'm of the belief if you're say, call it 535 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:01,439 Speaker 3: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who end up, let's say, end 536 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 3: up kind of fading and they finish six and ten 537 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 3: or eleven whatever it is now seventeen games, Yeah, you 538 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 3: take a shot on Pennix, and then you have Baker 539 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 3: there as well, and then you take another shot in 540 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 3: the six or seventh round, Like I just don't think. Yeah, 541 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:18,440 Speaker 3: I just don't think that's an incorrect play, and no 542 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:19,680 Speaker 3: one's really doing it yet. 543 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,399 Speaker 2: That's not the worst idea. I like it. It's you know, 544 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 2: it's very novel. I do like it. 545 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 1: Let's go through some quick games this weekend. First of all, 546 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,320 Speaker 1: are you still building your model for NFL? Or are 547 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 1: you dusting off the old one and adding new wrinkles? 548 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,399 Speaker 3: Nothing. I haven't. I've definitely been betting for fun, just 549 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 3: like total degenerate, expecting to lose, just because I've gotten 550 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,640 Speaker 3: into it a little bit more this season with college 551 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 3: and NFL, but zero modeling, just kind of listening, watching games, 552 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 3: betting in game a lot live, just to have something 553 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,679 Speaker 3: going on. But I'm in the circuit contest, Like I 554 00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 3: have five entries with my partner Evan. From five entries, yeah, 555 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 3: we maxed them out. We basically go like three and 556 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,880 Speaker 3: two or two and three. Almost the re entry except one, 557 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,199 Speaker 3: which is the one that's completely random, is actually on 558 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:03,919 Speaker 3: a nice little run. 559 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 2: So what's the best the best record you've got. 560 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:09,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, I've like there was a five and ozero and 561 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:11,080 Speaker 3: one of the entries in a four and one and 562 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,640 Speaker 3: like a three and two run on one of our entries. 563 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,639 Speaker 3: It's like maybe if we go on another fourteen and 564 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 3: one streak, we'd be in the mix. But it's just 565 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 3: like there's so many, so many opponents or players in 566 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 3: these contests. 567 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,159 Speaker 1: And yeah, there's a lot. I saw that the leader 568 00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:27,119 Speaker 1: is twenty one and four, maybe. 569 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 3: Over eighty percent. Yeah. Yeah, you have to just run 570 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 3: really hot, not only lucky, you have to be good 571 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:33,680 Speaker 3: and you have to be making picks that other people 572 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 3: aren't making. It's it's a whole game theory thing. It's fun. 573 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 3: But yeah, so I've been following the NFL a lot 574 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 3: more just for the sake of that. 575 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:42,359 Speaker 2: Are you in there with rufus or no? 576 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,920 Speaker 3: No, he has his own he has his own entries. 577 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 3: I think he maxed out as well. 578 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,120 Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean, dude, five five entries. Oh yeah, 579 00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 1: I happened to go five and oh last week. So 580 00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 1: now I'm like looking for the standings that I can't 581 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:53,840 Speaker 1: find them, but other people have found them. 582 00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:55,400 Speaker 2: But yeah, but I was. I went one and four 583 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 2: the week before that, which is frustrating. 584 00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:58,440 Speaker 1: Like I had the Browns when they were facing the 585 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 1: Ravens and DTR Now I find out like two hours 586 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,639 Speaker 1: before the game he finds out he's starting. I'm like, 587 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 1: Geez could have used that information. 588 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:07,760 Speaker 3: You can go three and two every week in real 589 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 3: life and you're like you can retire on that, right, 590 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 3: But in the contest, if you go three into every 591 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 3: week sixty percent, you're not even gonna sniff anything. It's 592 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 3: like that doesn't even matter. So you really you're five and 593 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:17,919 Speaker 3: Oh it's a great start, but yeah, you need two 594 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:18,360 Speaker 3: more of those. 595 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,199 Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I need to back it up. So this 596 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 1: week feels a little tougher. First of all, any games 597 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 1: you bet yet that that jump out nope. 598 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 3: I mean, if I was actually betting for real, I 599 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 3: would have been betting Sunday night and like had my 600 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 3: numbers and projections and everything set up. But I don't. 601 00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 3: I'm betting like Saturday and Sunday just really bad. So 602 00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:42,200 Speaker 3: yet not advice. I would typically look to give out one. 603 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,040 Speaker 3: The one game that when I was looking before we 604 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,840 Speaker 3: jumped online, that I thought was interesting, just moved all 605 00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 3: the way to seven is the Niners Browns. We're talking 606 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,159 Speaker 3: about the bunch. I think I'm guessing it's because Watson's 607 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,320 Speaker 3: not expected to play, But it seems like if there 608 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,160 Speaker 3: was ever a time to fade the forty nine Ers 609 00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,920 Speaker 3: Browns defenses, I think, really good off of a bye 610 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 3: if I recall as well, yes, getting a full seven 611 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,880 Speaker 3: at home, that's the one I would probably look at. 612 00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,919 Speaker 1: Now at this point, I feel briefly smart. So Sunday 613 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,440 Speaker 1: night we recorded and it was either Sunday or Monday, 614 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:12,919 Speaker 1: and I said. 615 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 2: Browns three and a half. 616 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:18,159 Speaker 1: I hit it, okay, I didn't know Watson was still hurt, 617 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,120 Speaker 1: Like the doctors cleared him to play, and now we're 618 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 1: hearing yeah, and now we're hearing it's an ac bruise 619 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,600 Speaker 1: could be two to six weeks. And he didn't practice 620 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:30,960 Speaker 1: again Wednesday after two and I'm like, geez, well that's done. 621 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:32,359 Speaker 1: So now it's up to seven PJ. 622 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:32,919 Speaker 2: Walker. 623 00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,399 Speaker 1: I mean, he can fling it, but I don't know 624 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,160 Speaker 1: that I can get there. Football is back. No more 625 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 1: preseason games. The regular season is here. While we all 626 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:45,119 Speaker 1: love watching our favorite teams on television, there is nothing 627 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,399 Speaker 1: better than being in a game live and in person. 628 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 1: And the best way to get tickets to any of 629 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 1: these games is on game Time, the fastest growing ticketing 630 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 1: app in the US, for last minute, amazing deals on 631 00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:00,440 Speaker 1: tickets to see your favorite football teams this September. Download 632 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 1: game Time. And it's not just football. Game Time has 633 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:07,240 Speaker 1: tickets to baseball games, concerts, and comedy shows across the country. 634 00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:11,439 Speaker 1: Download the game Time app and redeem code Jmack for 635 00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 1: twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again. Download 636 00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 1: the game Time app and enter code Jmack. That's Jmac 637 00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,920 Speaker 1: for twenty dollars off. No matter where you live, get 638 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,879 Speaker 1: out and have some fun this week. Download game Time today, 639 00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 1: last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. So there's a lot 640 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,680 Speaker 1: of two and a half's and I've been mentioning this guy. 641 00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 1: I just started reading him, Jeff Fogel. 642 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:35,160 Speaker 2: Do you know him? 643 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:36,639 Speaker 3: Yeah, I know who that is. Yeah, I don't know 644 00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,879 Speaker 3: him personally, but I've read it stuff before. Yeah. 645 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,080 Speaker 1: Right, So he had a really interesting take that in 646 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,360 Speaker 1: the NFL, when you see a two and a half, 647 00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:47,160 Speaker 1: you want the underdog, and when you see a three 648 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,439 Speaker 1: and a half, you want the favorite, even though logic 649 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:53,040 Speaker 1: would say kind of otherwise, and his logic and I 650 00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,560 Speaker 1: don't want to butcher it, but essentially, at two and 651 00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,000 Speaker 1: a half, if the sharps like the favorite, they would 652 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,640 Speaker 1: bet it up to three, and at three and a half, 653 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:03,560 Speaker 1: if they like the underdog, they would bet it down 654 00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:05,919 Speaker 1: to three. Again, I don't know that's a hard and 655 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,440 Speaker 1: fast rule, but I'm just curious. There's a lot of 656 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,360 Speaker 1: two and a half's on the board this week. First 657 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 1: of all, does that sound logical to you a longtime 658 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:14,480 Speaker 1: professional gambler? 659 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,359 Speaker 3: I think it all depends on the situation. There are 660 00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,800 Speaker 3: probably are cases where sharps aren't betting a minus two 661 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,760 Speaker 3: and a half because they think it's about fair. I 662 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 3: would say that it takes quite a bit, or it 663 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,879 Speaker 3: takes someone or a group of people that are really 664 00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:33,760 Speaker 3: well respected to move in and around three. So the 665 00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,440 Speaker 3: one game we were just referencing earlier was that Cowboys 666 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:37,959 Speaker 3: move from four down to three and a half. It 667 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,800 Speaker 3: was even pushing three point two five and three right 668 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:45,160 Speaker 3: before kickoff. That means there were definitely sharps on the Cowboys. 669 00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,920 Speaker 3: They were dead wrong in that particular situation. But to 670 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:50,880 Speaker 3: move in around three it takes some real money, and 671 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,040 Speaker 3: so there's probably some merit to his point where if 672 00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:56,120 Speaker 3: it's not moving it doesn't mean that there's value. Though 673 00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 3: I would say this on the dog at plus two 674 00:28:57,840 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 3: and a half, because if that was the case, it'd 675 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,640 Speaker 3: be moving down one or pick. It actually probably just 676 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 3: means that more often than not, it's a fair fair price, 677 00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:05,280 Speaker 3: which right at the end of the day, all the 678 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,360 Speaker 3: lines are fair right before kickoff. That's the whole point 679 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:08,640 Speaker 3: of closing line value and. 680 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:16,680 Speaker 1: That discussion, because for instance, Cincinnati and uh Seattle is 681 00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,040 Speaker 1: like two and a half, it looks like a juice three. 682 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 2: I don't know. 683 00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,960 Speaker 1: My thought was here the Seahawks off of by again, 684 00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 1: I don't know what off of buy means, but everybody's thinking, oh, Bengals, 685 00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 1: they got right in Arizona Joe Burrow's normal again. 686 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:30,160 Speaker 2: And I don't know. 687 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,120 Speaker 1: I watched that game because I had Bengals in the contest. 688 00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,960 Speaker 1: They didn't look amazing. The run defense still stinks. A 689 00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:40,040 Speaker 1: lot of teams can get right against Arizona. Yeah, so 690 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:41,720 Speaker 1: I don't know any you can get You can get 691 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 1: three now, by the way on Seattle, So yeah, you're 692 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:44,400 Speaker 1: plus three there. 693 00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:48,280 Speaker 2: But con I think contest first is sadly because. 694 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,440 Speaker 1: I'm you know, dreams of winning it, that damn thing. 695 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:52,600 Speaker 1: But yes, I've already bet two and a half. I 696 00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:56,440 Speaker 1: guess that's stupid. I should wait for the three. Do 697 00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,360 Speaker 1: you look at just side? You know, do you tease 698 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,960 Speaker 1: ever the white You heard of the Wong teaser teasing? Yeah, yeah, 699 00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:04,200 Speaker 1: the three and the seven you can find a good price, 700 00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:05,720 Speaker 1: like two and a half's in theory. 701 00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:07,440 Speaker 3: Up to eight and a half is like a really 702 00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 3: good look. Queen Bay Packers anyway, Yeah, yeah, I did 703 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 3: the Packers and the under under and it worked on Monday. 704 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 3: Don't do that if you're listening out there. Don't tease totals. 705 00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,800 Speaker 3: But if you, if you tease the sides two sides 706 00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,520 Speaker 3: that go through those numbers, it's generally a profitable long term. 707 00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 1: So so you're saying, like Seattle and Vikings, Oh no, 708 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:29,360 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, Bears. 709 00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,960 Speaker 3: Well, actually going to be quite frank, it's no longer 710 00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,320 Speaker 3: Seattle because you'd be better off just betting plus three 711 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,520 Speaker 3: on Seattle now. But Bears would be a great example, right, 712 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:39,840 Speaker 3: you can get them at eight and a half. You 713 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:41,680 Speaker 3: could get Washington at plus eight and a half. That 714 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,440 Speaker 3: would be two dog options. Houston you could take to 715 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:48,160 Speaker 3: seven and a half. And it goes the other direction obviously, 716 00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,040 Speaker 3: like if you end up seeing you know, Philly minus 717 00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:52,520 Speaker 3: seven and a half at the Jets. It's not yet, 718 00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:54,479 Speaker 3: it's only seven, but you can like tease a favorite 719 00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 3: of course. 720 00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, down to just win the game. 721 00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:58,280 Speaker 3: Yeah. 722 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 1: Interesting, So let's go to thequickly the big spreads. Buffalo 723 00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:07,680 Speaker 1: is currently fourteen, looks like it's headed higher against the Giants. 724 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,640 Speaker 1: We don't know what's up with the Giants quarterback, offensive line, 725 00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 1: Buffalo coming off the London game. 726 00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,440 Speaker 2: I know, double digits, blah blah blah, but I don't know. 727 00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 3: Man. 728 00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 1: It feels like Buffalo and Miami and are on a 729 00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 1: different plane. And then the Giants in Carolina are really 730 00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:22,360 Speaker 1: really rotten. 731 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:27,840 Speaker 3: How certain are you Jason that Daniel Jones is better 732 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 3: than Tyrod Taylor. 733 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 1: Oh. 734 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:30,840 Speaker 2: That's the other thing is Tyrod Taylor. 735 00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 1: When he came into the game and I had the Dolphins, 736 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,080 Speaker 1: I was like, damn it, tui on the door open 737 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:36,600 Speaker 1: a little bit. There was a sweat because I know 738 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,240 Speaker 1: they're gonna game yep, I know they're going to go 739 00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:41,280 Speaker 1: prevent de And it was just like, you know, some 740 00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:44,040 Speaker 1: of these coaches, I don't know, Dables seems like he's 741 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,800 Speaker 1: on the struggle bus. But you're right, that's fair Tyrod Taylor. 742 00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:49,840 Speaker 1: But it is primetime game. Daniel Jones has been so 743 00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,040 Speaker 1: bad in the primetime performances. I don't know if it's 744 00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:56,000 Speaker 1: the moment's too big, but it was like Dallas Seattle. 745 00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:57,840 Speaker 2: I don't know. 746 00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,120 Speaker 3: The truth is that the Giant have more issues than 747 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,160 Speaker 3: just Daniel Jones hasn't been good, whether it's coaching, whether 748 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:05,920 Speaker 3: it's a mix of their defense. I mean, they scored 749 00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:07,840 Speaker 3: their first I didn't even know this. I was watching 750 00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 3: that game the Dolphins. The first TV they've scored this 751 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,640 Speaker 3: season in the first half was the pick six to 752 00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:14,800 Speaker 3: us throw one hundred and two yards the other way. 753 00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:18,160 Speaker 3: Like that's insane. I don't even I don't think I've 754 00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,040 Speaker 3: ever heard of that before when you're five, six, seven 755 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:23,840 Speaker 3: weeks into a year. So I wouldn't be laying fourteen 756 00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,720 Speaker 3: though on the bills. Either it's either the dog or pass. 757 00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:28,640 Speaker 1: Dog or pass. So then what about the other one? 758 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:32,000 Speaker 1: Miami Carolina? Now I did look this up. Miami next 759 00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,800 Speaker 1: week plays the Eagles. It'll be two straight like layups 760 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,920 Speaker 1: Giants and then Carolina. Bryce Young is really struggling. 761 00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 2: Frank Wrich. 762 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,280 Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw the interview where he's like, yeah, 763 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,040 Speaker 1: I got to meet with the owner every Monday Tuesday 764 00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:46,200 Speaker 1: after the losses. 765 00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:47,720 Speaker 2: It's not fun, you know. 766 00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,000 Speaker 3: I didn't realize they were doing that. That's interesting. 767 00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:52,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean he got to the potty. I mean, 768 00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:56,840 Speaker 1: obviously it's not fun losing, but I don't know. Dolphins 769 00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:02,640 Speaker 1: lose eight chan, I don't know. Again, double digits seems insane, 770 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:04,440 Speaker 1: But I. 771 00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:09,040 Speaker 3: Would say this, the score in that Giants game was 772 00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,760 Speaker 3: actually a little bit phony. What was the final thirty one? 773 00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:16,320 Speaker 3: Sixteen sixteen? Yeah, I think to I scored ten of 774 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:20,520 Speaker 3: the points for the Giants, so, I mean, and one 775 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:21,840 Speaker 3: of them was one hundred and two yard like they're 776 00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:23,880 Speaker 3: getting at least three, if not seven, and it went 777 00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:25,400 Speaker 3: the other way. It's like a fourteen points like that 778 00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:27,360 Speaker 3: could have easily been thirty eight six or forty one 779 00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:30,160 Speaker 3: six or something like. And then coming off of obviously 780 00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:32,800 Speaker 3: the Buffalo loss before that, they dropped seventy like this one. 781 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,040 Speaker 3: I'm not betting, Carolina, and I'm probably with you if 782 00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:37,280 Speaker 3: you force me to. I find a thirteen and a 783 00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:39,560 Speaker 3: half at minus one oh five and bet. 784 00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:44,440 Speaker 1: Then do you do you think McDaniel's like people just 785 00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,040 Speaker 1: have no clue what's coming he's got. 786 00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:48,000 Speaker 2: I think he's got the most creative stuff in the league. 787 00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:51,360 Speaker 3: You've heard about all the like motion talk and like 788 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:53,360 Speaker 3: the more you're doing in motion, and the defense is 789 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:55,320 Speaker 3: just is an extra step mentally that they have to 790 00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 3: go through some sort of progression this or that, and 791 00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,400 Speaker 3: then you fake emotion eventually and you just get they're 792 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:03,360 Speaker 3: just so good at crafting everything. And if you have 793 00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,680 Speaker 3: a quarterback, whether it's Brock Purdy or two, that can 794 00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,319 Speaker 3: process it themselves and then make the correct throws more 795 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,719 Speaker 3: often than not. I mean, Tyrek Hill, who do you 796 00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:13,240 Speaker 3: think is the most valuable I already gave my answer away, 797 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,600 Speaker 3: Like Tyreek Hill's value as far as like the Steph 798 00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:18,640 Speaker 3: Curry space creation from just the value of his three 799 00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,200 Speaker 3: point shot, the value in Tyreek Hill just being on 800 00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:25,560 Speaker 3: the field running around is I think probably just was 801 00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:29,000 Speaker 3: undervalued by the Chiefs, which is crazy to say, just 802 00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,719 Speaker 3: because of what he's doing for Miami now and whether 803 00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:33,719 Speaker 3: he's actually catching it and running, but it's also just 804 00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:36,120 Speaker 3: the space he's creating for everyone else and making things easier. 805 00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,319 Speaker 2: Yeah, he really destroyed the Charges, all right. 806 00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,080 Speaker 1: Last one is the Saints, who have no offense to 807 00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:43,040 Speaker 1: speak of, but a good defense face CJ. 808 00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 2: Stroud, the darling of the NFL. 809 00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:48,200 Speaker 1: It looks to me like Texans money has just been 810 00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:51,920 Speaker 1: coming in the entire week so far. I do wonder though, 811 00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,719 Speaker 1: Dennis Allen, who has a rich history of defensive not 812 00:34:54,840 --> 00:35:00,840 Speaker 1: geniusness but smarts craftiness. I just wonder we'll his scheme 813 00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,680 Speaker 1: and I haven't fully read about it yet it's only Wednesday. Well, 814 00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:07,920 Speaker 1: his scheme do well against his forty nine ers, slow 815 00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:10,439 Speaker 1: X offense and a rookie quarterback. Because if you saw 816 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:13,520 Speaker 1: Atlanta last week and I got lucky with Atlanta, they 817 00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:15,839 Speaker 1: didn't blitz because usually you want to blitz the rookie. 818 00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:18,200 Speaker 1: They didn't blitz ay, sat back, mixed coverages, and Stroud 819 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:20,040 Speaker 1: was like mediocre for most of the game, and then 820 00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:21,919 Speaker 1: in the two minute Drill had a nice touchdown pass. 821 00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,160 Speaker 1: But he didn't do as much last week. Now it 822 00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:24,799 Speaker 1: was on the road. 823 00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:27,840 Speaker 2: Or is that just like that stuff that you're not 824 00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:28,640 Speaker 2: going to be able to solve. 825 00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:32,479 Speaker 3: I think it's as far as like the Stroud side 826 00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,120 Speaker 3: of what is going to work against him, like, we 827 00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:36,799 Speaker 3: don't know the answer yet. I think the way they 828 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,000 Speaker 3: played it was pretty sound because he did look mediocre, 829 00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:40,680 Speaker 3: he put together the drive when you needed to, and 830 00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,200 Speaker 3: then they ended up losing any way, unfortunately. But I 831 00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:47,239 Speaker 3: think for sure it's just constantly mixing it up as 832 00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:49,600 Speaker 3: opposed to just setting on one thing and this is 833 00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:51,600 Speaker 3: what we're going to do for all four quarters. I 834 00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,360 Speaker 3: think that's something that a lot of is more traditional 835 00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:56,160 Speaker 3: or older, where you have your game plan in your 836 00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:58,280 Speaker 3: system and that's all you do as opposed to adjusting, 837 00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,640 Speaker 3: and you do make adjustments at have time time of course, 838 00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,480 Speaker 3: but that's something that I would just always constantly throw 839 00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:06,759 Speaker 3: at rookie quarterbacks no matter what, whether it's blitzing or 840 00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,040 Speaker 3: sitting back. I would say this, the one thing that's 841 00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,160 Speaker 3: interesting about this game. For what it's worth, this totals 842 00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,399 Speaker 3: moved a lot yesterday in the day prior, like from 843 00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:16,480 Speaker 3: opened like it was as low as forty it went 844 00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:18,640 Speaker 3: up to forty three, back down forty tw and a halflick. 845 00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,879 Speaker 3: I'm not sure what the real reason is behind that. 846 00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,000 Speaker 3: I guessing there's short people on each side, and so 847 00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:27,000 Speaker 3: it's one that i'd probably just stay away from personally, 848 00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:30,120 Speaker 3: and as far as picking a side, I'd probably lay 849 00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:31,839 Speaker 3: the one with the Saints. 850 00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:32,320 Speaker 2: Interesting. 851 00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:34,400 Speaker 1: All right, let's pivot to college football to wrap up 852 00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:38,240 Speaker 1: real quick. You are, obviously you major bones in college football, 853 00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,760 Speaker 1: so it sounds like you're back into it really strong 854 00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,480 Speaker 1: games with this weekend. I don't know where you want 855 00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:45,600 Speaker 1: to start, Pack twelve. You want to go Notre Dame, 856 00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:50,359 Speaker 1: they got the big game against USC. We're one week 857 00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:53,759 Speaker 1: away from Ohio State, Penn State? Is Penn State undervalued? Overvalued? 858 00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:56,160 Speaker 1: I don't know, fire Away. 859 00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:58,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, I know you had mentioned you're still trying to 860 00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:00,840 Speaker 3: get up to snuff on some of the college football, 861 00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:02,479 Speaker 3: but I mean you've heard plenty of you already knew about, 862 00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:04,879 Speaker 3: you know, KILEB Williams, USC and they're local to us 863 00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:08,000 Speaker 3: here down in California. I think this is this is 864 00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:10,400 Speaker 3: my prediction, and it's not worth anything. I'm not running 865 00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,000 Speaker 3: my own numbers or model or anything on that front. 866 00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,759 Speaker 3: I think that everyone was so excited to say, hey, 867 00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,080 Speaker 3: look see how USC is not a title contender. Their 868 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:23,080 Speaker 3: defense isn't good enough so far. Now the other way 869 00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:26,799 Speaker 3: that them getting three at South Bend is probably where 870 00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:28,759 Speaker 3: I would bet I had to have some action on 871 00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:31,400 Speaker 3: this game. I think two weeks ago they would have 872 00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,759 Speaker 3: been laying like two and a half. Probably Wow. Notre 873 00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:36,760 Speaker 3: Dame just lost to Louisville, and I thought they played 874 00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,160 Speaker 3: great against Ohio State and deserved to beat them. Notre 875 00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:42,680 Speaker 3: Dame's a great team. I think Kaylea Williams and USC 876 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:47,200 Speaker 3: should not be getting three points. That's my none don't 877 00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:50,680 Speaker 3: even have a computer spitting out a number assessment of 878 00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:52,920 Speaker 3: Like just the way the market shifted based on USC 879 00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,800 Speaker 3: giving up forty to Colorado and going into overtime against Arizona. 880 00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:00,440 Speaker 3: Granted USC's offense and look great against Arizona and you know, 881 00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,520 Speaker 3: late in the game when he needed it. So I 882 00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:05,520 Speaker 3: can see why the market's gone that direction. But for me, 883 00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,040 Speaker 3: I think as a whole. Yes, us He's defense isn't 884 00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,279 Speaker 3: as good. Their name's offense isn't that great either, So 885 00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,239 Speaker 3: I think give me Kayleb Williams getting a field goal. 886 00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:16,839 Speaker 3: I know there's been movement on the total down from 887 00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,440 Speaker 3: like sixty two and a half to sixty, so points 888 00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:22,359 Speaker 3: are worth a little bit more than anticipated. And so yeah, 889 00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:23,799 Speaker 3: I'd go with the Trojans. And I think there's kind 890 00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:25,879 Speaker 3: of this overreaction the other way now, just because they've 891 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:27,120 Speaker 3: struggled in the last two weeks. 892 00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:30,720 Speaker 1: So it's interesting you mentioned last week for both teams. 893 00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,560 Speaker 1: If I had been on college football heavy, I would 894 00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:35,880 Speaker 1: have noticed this, but both teams caught looking ahead to 895 00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:39,000 Speaker 1: this game clearly. I mean, the real Notre Dame isn't 896 00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:42,040 Speaker 1: what we saw in Louisville. It's probably closer to the 897 00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:45,320 Speaker 1: Ohio State game. And I'm curious where you are On Hartman. 898 00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,560 Speaker 1: I had my ten year old daughter create a little meme, 899 00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:51,799 Speaker 1: you know that Spider Man where Toby maguire wipes his 900 00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:55,080 Speaker 1: glasses and puts it on and he goes from he 901 00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:59,040 Speaker 1: went from brock Purty to Sam Hartman or whatever. And 902 00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,320 Speaker 1: I looked it up and like, they're very similar tons 903 00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:04,080 Speaker 1: of college starts, almost the exact same size. A lot 904 00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:07,680 Speaker 1: of the positives for Hartman was quick processing. I'm not 905 00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,080 Speaker 1: off the Hartmanship because he's struggled here in the last 906 00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:13,080 Speaker 1: couple of weeks. I know the Notre Dame offense is like, hey, 907 00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,719 Speaker 1: defensive coach, we're not losing this game. You know, he's very, 908 00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:18,880 Speaker 1: very conservative. Any thoughts on Hartman as a pro. 909 00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:22,640 Speaker 3: I think it's, oh, yeah, he's almost His stock has 910 00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:24,680 Speaker 3: been hurt the last two weeks in a strange way. 911 00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:26,400 Speaker 3: I think when he was at Wake Forest, which is 912 00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:28,800 Speaker 3: where he's gotten most of his play in an acc 913 00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:31,920 Speaker 3: really athletic conference, good teams. Obviously, they went up against 914 00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:34,120 Speaker 3: Clemson and gave them a run once or twice. It 915 00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,720 Speaker 3: was a lot of RPOs. When you mentioned the decision making, 916 00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:39,359 Speaker 3: and I granted I didn't watch him much the year 917 00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:41,600 Speaker 3: prior when he was at Wake in his final season. 918 00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:43,040 Speaker 3: He may have had an injury or of some sort. 919 00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:45,160 Speaker 3: He didn't plays many games, but his RPO and like 920 00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:48,279 Speaker 3: throwing that seam route and just decision making skills I 921 00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:50,480 Speaker 3: thought were really elite. No, it's easier to look elite 922 00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,920 Speaker 3: against college opponents, obviously, Yeah, but there is something too. 923 00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:57,120 Speaker 3: I think the general public is coming onto this idea 924 00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:59,200 Speaker 3: that the value of having three to four years of 925 00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,879 Speaker 3: starts in college or so much more than the raw 926 00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:04,120 Speaker 3: guy out of North Carolina or a Tree Lance or 927 00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,839 Speaker 3: you know that's Trubisky who only played one year at 928 00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:10,640 Speaker 3: North Carolina Tree Lance. I would tend to say Hartman's 929 00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:13,440 Speaker 3: got a shot as much as you know any of 930 00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:16,240 Speaker 3: these other guys that are projected to be mid rounders. 931 00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:18,439 Speaker 3: I'm not sure. I'ven't looked at the lead the lightest mock. 932 00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:22,680 Speaker 3: And I also wouldn't discount the fact that he went 933 00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:25,600 Speaker 3: from no turnovers through the first four games or whatever 934 00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:27,680 Speaker 3: to turning over like five or six times and it's 935 00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:30,799 Speaker 3: last two because obviously defenses are adjusting to what they 936 00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,080 Speaker 3: were doing originally and us he's not the team to 937 00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:36,279 Speaker 3: necessarily capitalize either defensively. But Hartman. I liked him a 938 00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:38,960 Speaker 3: lot at Wake and for sure could see him being 939 00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:40,440 Speaker 3: someone that I'm trying to think of a comp in 940 00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:42,680 Speaker 3: my head as I'm like rambling the last ten seconds 941 00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:44,600 Speaker 3: to try to figure out who's the NFL comp. I 942 00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:46,759 Speaker 3: don't I don't know if I have one, but he's got 943 00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:49,000 Speaker 3: a real show maybe it's like maybe it is kind 944 00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:50,640 Speaker 3: of like a Kirk Cousins. To be honest, we mentioned 945 00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:50,920 Speaker 3: his name. 946 00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:51,799 Speaker 2: Well, it's fun. 947 00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:54,280 Speaker 1: I was just thinking I had with the right offense, 948 00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:55,560 Speaker 1: he's going to thrive in the NFL. 949 00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:57,480 Speaker 2: And I forgot to ask you just on Party. 950 00:40:57,719 --> 00:40:59,920 Speaker 1: So let's just say Brock Purty gets drafted by the 951 00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:04,240 Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans, okay, instead of they take pretty late instead 952 00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:06,839 Speaker 1: of Will Levis and Party gets thrust in there. Let's 953 00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:08,640 Speaker 1: be real, he's not thriving the way he is in 954 00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:09,640 Speaker 1: San fran Right. 955 00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:14,760 Speaker 3: It's it's our it's our whole conversation about m McVay. 956 00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:18,160 Speaker 3: Excuse me, Shanahan and mcvay's of old right into the 957 00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:22,640 Speaker 3: whole coaching discussion, because it's why it's so crazy. Trey 958 00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:26,160 Speaker 3: Lance was just not even close under Shanahan. You'd think 959 00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,759 Speaker 3: anyone takes plugged in there. It's a bad sign, I 960 00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:32,279 Speaker 3: think for anyone holding the tray Lance stock. But yeah, 961 00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:35,480 Speaker 3: for sure, if he's in Tennessee, especially, they're they're focused 962 00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:37,960 Speaker 3: on our run game that's very play action heavy base, 963 00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,080 Speaker 3: and they're taking deep shots more frequently, and that's not 964 00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:44,359 Speaker 3: Purty's necessarily his strength. I'm yeah, I think you're right. 965 00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:46,279 Speaker 3: It's a It's an easy comment to make though as well, 966 00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:48,840 Speaker 3: if that makes sense, because like, obviously Shanahan's just better. 967 00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:52,400 Speaker 1: At blake On all right, and then Washington Oregon is 968 00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:56,000 Speaker 1: a good game. Bo Nicks versus Pennix, I don't know 969 00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:58,879 Speaker 1: any thoughts on those two quarterbacks. Penis, you know, has 970 00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:00,799 Speaker 1: a couple injuries, but he's been like a four year starter, 971 00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:03,560 Speaker 1: five maybe five with the injuries and bone Knicks, I 972 00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:06,200 Speaker 1: think I had this He's gonna maybe start sixty games 973 00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:08,480 Speaker 1: at the college level. I don't love him as much 974 00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:10,319 Speaker 1: as others. I think he's still a high pick. But 975 00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:12,960 Speaker 1: Penix and Knicks, where are you at? 976 00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:17,799 Speaker 3: My guess is I'm very anti bo Nicks because I 977 00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:20,640 Speaker 3: remember him from two, three, four seasons ago being horrible 978 00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:22,640 Speaker 3: at Auburn, Yes, and then I didn't really watch his 979 00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:24,200 Speaker 3: first year at Oregon, and then this year he's been 980 00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:26,359 Speaker 3: pretty good, and I'm like, did Bonnix really figure it out? 981 00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:28,200 Speaker 3: Or And then I keep going back to watching him 982 00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:31,000 Speaker 3: in my head play at Auburn. But against Colorado, I 983 00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:32,880 Speaker 3: was like, oh, he was great, but like that was 984 00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:35,000 Speaker 3: like the spot of the century at his faith Colorado. 985 00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,799 Speaker 3: After they came back against their rivals in Colorado State, Like, 986 00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:40,200 Speaker 3: this is a huge game for him because it's on 987 00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:42,680 Speaker 3: the road against a Pac twelve team that they're obviously 988 00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:44,040 Speaker 3: I think both teams are ranked in the top ten. 989 00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:47,400 Speaker 3: The Penix one, I think is more interesting because if 990 00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:50,000 Speaker 3: I recall quickly, he was at Indiana, ends up transferring 991 00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:54,640 Speaker 3: he's playing again. He's one that I feel like I 992 00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:57,920 Speaker 3: have no gauge on, which I usually would pretend discussing 993 00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:00,360 Speaker 3: on a podcast or with friends like I have, and 994 00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:02,279 Speaker 3: I want to be right, I have no clue because 995 00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,960 Speaker 3: that Indiana it wasn't great. So far at Washington he's 996 00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:06,640 Speaker 3: been phenomenal, but then you actually go through and look 997 00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:08,759 Speaker 3: who they've played. They haven't played anyone that good yet either, 998 00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:11,640 Speaker 3: So I actually I don't know. Penix is a really interesting one. 999 00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:13,239 Speaker 3: But if he's projected to be a first rounder, like 1000 00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:16,160 Speaker 3: I didn't until you mentioned like seventh pick drafting Penis 1001 00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:18,840 Speaker 3: or viewers there, I didn't realize Penix was that highly 1002 00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:21,360 Speaker 3: thought of already, So I'm probably just behind on the 1003 00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:22,239 Speaker 3: Penix is trained to be on. 1004 00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:24,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean again, it really depends. 1005 00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:26,560 Speaker 1: Like Hendon Hooker, remember he had a lot of experience 1006 00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:28,440 Speaker 1: through a great deep ball and then he kind of 1007 00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:30,160 Speaker 1: falls in the draft and you're like, oh, what is 1008 00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:31,879 Speaker 1: Hendon Hooker? Like what's he going to do coming off 1009 00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:34,880 Speaker 1: the injury? And again it's like can some of these 1010 00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:38,440 Speaker 1: quarterbacks process quick enough? Like Quinn Youewers is cooking up 1011 00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:39,200 Speaker 1: some bad teams? 1012 00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:41,920 Speaker 2: Is he that good? We don't know? 1013 00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:43,920 Speaker 1: And like that's the tough The quarterback is the toughest 1014 00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:46,399 Speaker 1: thing pretty much to diagnose in all the time. 1015 00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:48,400 Speaker 3: You know what would be you know, it would be great, Jason, 1016 00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:51,480 Speaker 3: because it is the most tough thing to diagnose in sports. 1017 00:43:51,560 --> 00:43:53,800 Speaker 3: It's drafting two or three of them every year. Yeah, 1018 00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:55,400 Speaker 3: and then you maybe have one. I don't know, I 1019 00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:57,200 Speaker 3: just had that thought just came to me, but. 1020 00:43:57,239 --> 00:44:00,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think personally when we're running the team, Yeah yeah. 1021 00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:02,840 Speaker 1: Well Parcels back in the day said you need like 1022 00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:06,960 Speaker 1: was it thirty or forty starts and then like sixty 1023 00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:10,240 Speaker 1: percent completions and then there was one other thing age 1024 00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:13,239 Speaker 1: maybe and then that listen, Zach Wilson flies in the 1025 00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:15,239 Speaker 1: face of all that. They're like, oh, look cannon arm 1026 00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:17,960 Speaker 1: young kid, and he's just total disaster. All right, we 1027 00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:19,919 Speaker 1: kept you too long Preston, I know you got big 1028 00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:22,000 Speaker 1: things going on. Thanks for taking the time, man. 1029 00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:23,919 Speaker 3: No, thanks for having me as usual. 1030 00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:28,840 Speaker 2: The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching 1031 00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:32,440 Speaker 2: the game. He's making money while you do it. 1032 00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:34,200 Speaker 3: Here's your best bet. 1033 00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:38,400 Speaker 1: Great stuff from Preston Johnson. 1034 00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:40,840 Speaker 2: You know him as a regular guest on the podcast. 1035 00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:44,839 Speaker 1: Just one of the nice human being, sharp individual I'm 1036 00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:47,759 Speaker 1: gonna borrow a line from Prof. G I think I've 1037 00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:51,040 Speaker 1: mentioned him on the podcast before, like a finance podcast guy, 1038 00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,960 Speaker 1: and he likes to refer to smart individuals as blue 1039 00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:58,399 Speaker 1: flame thinkers, and I would put Preston Johnson in that 1040 00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:01,959 Speaker 1: in that blue flame thinking sports media group. 1041 00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:03,640 Speaker 2: Not a lot of them, but he's certainly one of. 1042 00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:06,200 Speaker 1: All. Right, let's get to best bet for Thursday night football, 1043 00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:09,640 Speaker 1: Broncos at Kansas City lines ten and a half. I 1044 00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:15,480 Speaker 1: did on Wednesday bet on Denver getting ten and a half. 1045 00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:16,200 Speaker 2: It's one of. 1046 00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:20,040 Speaker 1: Those just simple play. Historically, the Chiefs have not blown 1047 00:45:20,080 --> 00:45:22,040 Speaker 1: this team out. Last three meetings, Chiefs have been big 1048 00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,759 Speaker 1: favorites and have won by single digits. Four of the 1049 00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:26,959 Speaker 1: last five have been single digits. I know Sean Payton 1050 00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:29,520 Speaker 1: has not been quarterback on all those but this is 1051 00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:31,799 Speaker 1: the Kansas City recipe, right. They run out to a 1052 00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:33,560 Speaker 1: big lead like they did against the Jets, then they 1053 00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:36,239 Speaker 1: coast put it in cruise control and the opponent kind 1054 00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:38,840 Speaker 1: of gets back and Mahomes is, you know, not locked in. 1055 00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:43,160 Speaker 1: I will say this, Chiefs, after this one face the Chargers, 1056 00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:48,360 Speaker 1: and as I record this late Wednesday night, I'll just 1057 00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:53,320 Speaker 1: point out light practice for kart laftis like practice for Kelsey, 1058 00:45:54,760 --> 00:46:00,280 Speaker 1: like practice across the board some of their better Playerston, 1059 00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:04,000 Speaker 1: you know, just easing back in. I'm just gonna put 1060 00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:06,759 Speaker 1: this out there. If you are the Chiefs and you 1061 00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:09,279 Speaker 1: have a big game against the Chargers on deck, a 1062 00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:11,719 Speaker 1: big game in the division, and historically they've struggled with 1063 00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:14,920 Speaker 1: the Chargers, and you've got kind of a lay up 1064 00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:18,839 Speaker 1: here at home against a limping Denver team that can't 1065 00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:21,120 Speaker 1: get out of its own way. They're all this talk 1066 00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:24,200 Speaker 1: about a fire sale. It's easy to overlook this team 1067 00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:28,080 Speaker 1: and not be dialed in to blow them out. And 1068 00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:31,120 Speaker 1: I definitely think Kansas City will win. But I did 1069 00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:33,520 Speaker 1: bet Denver, not pizza bet, a little more than a 1070 00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:36,399 Speaker 1: pizza bet. But it just feels to me like this 1071 00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:39,279 Speaker 1: is one of those spots where you know Peyton and 1072 00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:41,759 Speaker 1: Russell Wilson are not lying down. It's not over for them. 1073 00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:45,480 Speaker 1: You've got guys fighting for jobs, you know, if they 1074 00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:47,879 Speaker 1: want to get out, maybe they show out and play well. 1075 00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:51,440 Speaker 1: It just feels like one of those Kansas City spots 1076 00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:55,359 Speaker 1: where it's like a sleepy performance. They definitely get to win, 1077 00:46:55,840 --> 00:47:00,480 Speaker 1: but maybe along the lines of twenty four seventeen and 1078 00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:04,719 Speaker 1: it's like weirdly quasi close in the fourth, but never 1079 00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:08,239 Speaker 1: really Kansas City's never threatened. Now there is gonna be win. 1080 00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:10,600 Speaker 1: That's driven the total down a little bit. Win sixteen 1081 00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:14,080 Speaker 1: to twenty miles an hour. I think that actually probably 1082 00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:19,480 Speaker 1: impacts the Kansas City Chiefs more than it does the Broncos, 1083 00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:23,800 Speaker 1: although then again, the Broncos defense is just really really 1084 00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:25,560 Speaker 1: bad outside of Certan. But what do you do with 1085 00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:29,200 Speaker 1: Certan against a Chiefs team where they don't have any 1086 00:47:29,239 --> 00:47:30,959 Speaker 1: receiver to lock down? Do you just try to shut 1087 00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:32,239 Speaker 1: down one side of the field? Do you put them 1088 00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:35,040 Speaker 1: on Kelsey if Kelsey plays? Now this remember Kelsey's on 1089 00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:38,080 Speaker 1: his second injury this season. I know he did finish 1090 00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:41,960 Speaker 1: the game against the Vikings, but this is in long season. 1091 00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:45,040 Speaker 1: He's getting up there in age. Like I just I 1092 00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:47,759 Speaker 1: would not be shocked if they just said Travis Kelce 1093 00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:52,000 Speaker 1: not playing in this one, said fantasy manager scrambling. This 1094 00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:55,600 Speaker 1: is gonna be a tough one for fantasy folks. I'm 1095 00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:59,440 Speaker 1: playing Pacheco for the Chiefs. I have kicked Sky Moore off. 1096 00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,680 Speaker 1: My team can't deal with that guy anymore. And the 1097 00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:06,360 Speaker 1: Broncos have Javonte Williams and then this new kid McLachlin 1098 00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:11,120 Speaker 1: and some m JP Ryan. I have no clue, absolutely 1099 00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:13,080 Speaker 1: no clue what to make of this Broncos team. 1100 00:48:13,120 --> 00:48:14,160 Speaker 3: They're very frustrating. 1101 00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:16,760 Speaker 1: So that's all I got plus ten and a half 1102 00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:18,320 Speaker 1: nothing on the total. 1103 00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:20,840 Speaker 2: Good luck to all, Talk to you tomorrow.