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Speaker 1: What's going on? Everybody?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to Bogman's Best Bets on Betting Pros. Say that

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Speaker 2: five times fast. Today we're going to be talking about

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Speaker 2: win totals for the college football season. Should be a

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Speaker 2: lot of fun. I've picked five to tell you guys

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Speaker 2: that I like three overs, two unders, so splitting the

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Speaker 2: difference on love and hate a little bit. But before

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Speaker 2: I dive in to these win totals, let me tell

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Speaker 2: you guys about Fast Break Bets. If you like betting

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Speaker 2: on basketball, then join host Terrell Furman on the Fast

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Speaker 2: Breaks Bets podcast, your daily dose of basketball betting picks

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Speaker 2: in fifteen minutes or less. Tune in every day for

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Speaker 2: your rapid fire fix on all things basketball, from the

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Speaker 2: WNBA and the NBA to college basketball and more. Check

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Speaker 2: out the Fast Break Bets podcast on the Betting Pros

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Speaker 2: YouTube channel or wherever you listen to podcasts. I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: be doing a bunch of shows with Terrell Furman coming

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Speaker 2: up soon. Not a Texas fan like I am, We're

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Speaker 2: gonna a lot of horns down, which is not going

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Speaker 2: to be my favorite, of course, but I'm gonna really

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Speaker 2: enjoy doing some shows with Terrell. He's going to be

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Speaker 2: a lot of fun Seth as well, Seth Wilcock, I'll

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Speaker 2: be doing doing shows with as well this college football season.

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Speaker 2: So let's dive into it, and let's start with my

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Speaker 2: favorite of the season. Indiana over five and a half.

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Speaker 2: Currently at most books, you're gonna find this one going

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Speaker 2: off at minus one thirty five. I understand that not

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Speaker 2: everybody loves year long bets, right, I get it, But

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Speaker 2: to me, it makes me enjoy some of these teams more.

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Speaker 2: I have some bigger schools, this is one of the

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Speaker 2: smaller schools that I have to talk about today because

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Speaker 2: I wasn't gonna watch a lot of Indiana, but I've

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Speaker 2: placed several bets on them, so now I'm invested in Indiana.

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Speaker 2: They got the new head coach, Kurt Signetti, coming over

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Speaker 2: from James Madison last season, which means eight transfer starters

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Speaker 2: on offense and seven on defense. So when we look

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Speaker 2: at a schedule for a team like this, you worry

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Speaker 2: about these games up front because you worry about continuity. Sure,

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Speaker 2: you have the whole offseason to work on it, but

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Speaker 2: until you're out there running full reps, you don't know

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Speaker 2: what you're gonna get out of these starters, and for Indiana,

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Speaker 2: I like, I think Signetty can do it, and the

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Speaker 2: beginning of this schedule is extremely forgiving. I think this

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Speaker 2: team has three guaranteed wins. Remember the totals five and

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Speaker 2: a half, So we need to get three and fine,

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Speaker 2: three that is we're in this We have three. We

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Speaker 2: need to find three, I think, because I think you're

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Speaker 2: guaranteed wins against FIU, Western Illinois and Charlotte, and those

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Speaker 2: three are all in the first month while this team

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Speaker 2: is building confidence, while they're building continuity.

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Speaker 1: So we get those wins.

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Speaker 2: Out of the way, then we go, okay, well, what

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Speaker 2: are the losses when you're looking at the schedule, Well,

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Speaker 2: Michigan and Ohio State are for sure losses for Indiana.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it would take some type of godsend miracle

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Speaker 2: for these teams to beat Michigan or Ohio State in

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Speaker 2: my opinion.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to count those as losses.

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Speaker 2: But already we're starting with three guaranteed wins two guaranteed losses,

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Speaker 2: so we're ahead of schedule. So let's go through the

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Speaker 2: rest of the schedule and I'll.

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Speaker 1: Tell you what I like.

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Speaker 2: September fourteenth at UCLA don't really like that one. It's

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Speaker 2: across the country and the first road game for this squad,

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Speaker 2: but in terms of roster strength, it is somewhat of

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Speaker 2: a coin flip, so it's a possibility we'll say no

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Speaker 2: on that one. First Maryland September twenty eighth. I like

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Speaker 2: this game for Indiana. It's at home, and they were

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Speaker 2: dismantled and embarrassed by Maryland last season. The previous two

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Speaker 2: games had played much closer, and Indiana, to me, on paper,

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Speaker 2: is a better team than Maryland now. So I like

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Speaker 2: that game against Maryland that would get us to four.

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Speaker 2: Another opportunity for a win at Northwestern October fifth. This

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Speaker 2: game is a bit trickier than advertised, as it's on

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Speaker 2: the road and the Cats are coming off a bye.

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Speaker 2: But I have more confidence in this game than the

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Speaker 2: game against Maryland because I just think Indiana has a

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Speaker 2: better roster, even though Northwestern is comeing off of a

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Speaker 2: bye week, even though they're on the road. I think

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Speaker 2: at this point in the season, I think Indiana may

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Speaker 2: have four wins already, they may be playing with confidence,

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Speaker 2: and I just think they're better than Northwestern. Northwestern always

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Speaker 2: gives their best every single week, that's what makes Northwestern

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Speaker 2: a little bit scary every single week. But I really

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Speaker 2: like Indiana in that game. Then we go to October

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Speaker 2: nineteenth against Nebraska. Lots of factors are going to determine

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Speaker 2: this game. We will be deeper in the season. Of course,

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Speaker 2: we're going to have a better sense of both teams

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Speaker 2: with Matt Rule taking over in Nebraska. But there are

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Speaker 2: two factors I like for Indiana in this one. And

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Speaker 2: it's coming off a buye for them, and it's at home.

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Speaker 2: The games get real tight after this one, so this

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Speaker 2: one could be really big. But if they do beat Maryland,

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Speaker 2: and if they do beat Northwestern, we would already be

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Speaker 2: sitting at five.

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Speaker 1: So Nebraska is it.

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Speaker 2: But if they don't win this game, then we have

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Speaker 2: three other games where I think they could potentially win

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Speaker 2: and hit this win total. Let's go against Washington October

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Speaker 2: twenty sixth, And I know when you hear Washington, you go, okay, Well,

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Speaker 2: this team is coming off the Natty. But Jedfish's team

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Speaker 2: at Washington isn't going to be what they were last season.

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Speaker 2: They're in a similar spot with Indiana. For being honest,

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Speaker 2: a lot of transfers in a lot of transfers out

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Speaker 2: new head coach, but they have a lot of pressure

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Speaker 2: and everything is built up on the back of last season.

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Speaker 2: But you know, this whole offense is completely different. Most

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Speaker 2: of their stars went to the NFL and are playing

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Speaker 2: there now, So you know this is going to be

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Speaker 2: a potential look ahead spot for Washington as well, because

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Speaker 2: they got usc going to Seattle the following week. So

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Speaker 2: I think that one is where you know Indiana. Indiana

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Speaker 2: is going to be more dangerous, is going to have

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Speaker 2: a lot of continuity at this point this season, and

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Speaker 2: we're going to know what they are, So I think

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Speaker 2: the line could be it could go either way by

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Speaker 2: the time we get there. I think Indiana could be

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Speaker 2: the favorite. Washington could be a bigger favorite if they

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Speaker 2: look good again. Jetfish is a good coach, but it's

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Speaker 2: just it's a tall task to ask here at Michigan

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Speaker 2: State on November two. This is another one I'm not

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Speaker 2: in love with. It's on the road and Michigan State

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Speaker 2: is about on the same level as Indiana, maybe a

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Speaker 2: little bit better. The one thing for Indiana in this

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Speaker 2: one is that MSU is coming off a likely big

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Speaker 2: loss on the road to Michigan and the desperation for

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Speaker 2: Indiana to potentially make a bowl game if they haven't

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Speaker 2: hit that six wins should be fairly high. So it's

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Speaker 2: either desperation to get to that six win or they've

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Speaker 2: already hit the six win.

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Speaker 1: You've already catched this ticket.

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Speaker 2: So Michigan and Ohio State are the next two games

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Speaker 2: after this Michigan State game, and that's where I think

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Speaker 2: things could potentially go AWRYE Then we have versus Purdue

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Speaker 2: on November thirtieth. Indiana gets a week off between Michigan

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Speaker 2: and Ohio State, but the last game is at home

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Speaker 2: against Purdue, and both teams are going to look very

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Speaker 2: different with injuries and depth chart and all of that

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Speaker 2: by the time.

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Speaker 1: We get here.

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Speaker 2: Give me the home team in this one, and Signetti

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Speaker 2: should have Indiana kind of clicking at this point. So

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Speaker 2: I just think there's so many opportunities. Like I said,

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Speaker 2: we go in. I see three locks on the schedule,

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Speaker 2: and I only see two lost locks on the schedule.

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Speaker 2: Those are the games, of course I think they'll lose.

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Speaker 2: I don't particularly like that Michigan State game on the road.

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Speaker 2: I don't like that UCLA game early, but both those

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Speaker 2: teams are kind of in line with Indiana, so I

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Speaker 2: think Indiana hits this five and a half. My second

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Speaker 2: bet here, let's go to North Carolina. Their total is

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Speaker 2: seven and a half. I like the over for UNC

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Speaker 2: as well. It's minus one fifteen and they do look

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Speaker 2: a lot different. Obviously, Drake may is out, but Max

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Speaker 2: Johnson's taking over here for the tar Heels, I like

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Speaker 2: a lot. He's in a competition for the starting spot

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Speaker 2: with sophomore Connor harrold Well, but I think he's gonna

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Speaker 2: win the job. He was at LSU in Texas, A

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Speaker 2: and M, so he has a lot of experience. He's

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Speaker 2: got NFL talent in the backfield in Omar and Hampton

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Speaker 2: and tight end Bryson Nesbitt as well. He has a

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Speaker 2: lot of optionists in terms of roster strength, and my

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Speaker 2: man Nick Allen, who I do a see if be

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Speaker 2: Winning Edge podcast with as U n C as a

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Speaker 2: top ten he has the top ten on offense and

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Speaker 2: top thirty on defense. And the schedule is what I

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Speaker 2: really love for the Tar Heels as I only see

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Speaker 2: one for sure loss if we're throwing up air quotes here,

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Speaker 2: and that is to Florida State on the road. November two,

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Speaker 2: and I'm gonna say for sure loss, as in most

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Speaker 2: of the time, I think they lose that game in

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Speaker 2: most scenarios, however you want to say it, I think

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Speaker 2: they dropped that game, but I don't even know if

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Speaker 2: that is a guaranteed loss. I'll give it to them,

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Speaker 2: you know, right now. But we'll talk about Florida State

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Speaker 2: a little bit later as well. But hard games. The

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Speaker 2: opener on the road against the Mennesota isn't a cakewalk,

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Speaker 2: and they're currently underdogs by a couple points. I think

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Speaker 2: that's a tough one. On the road against Duke on

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Speaker 2: September twenty eighth isn't an easy game, but if the

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Speaker 2: three previous games give you in See some rhythm, this

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Speaker 2: could turn into a coasting win because Duke is not

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Speaker 2: in one of their up years this season. The final

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Speaker 2: two at Boston College on November twenty third could be tricky,

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Speaker 2: but I would think that UNC is in a walk.

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Speaker 2: Could be that game, and the last game is at home,

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Speaker 2: but against NC State, that's the one I think is

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Speaker 2: really going to come down to how those teams are

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Speaker 2: looking at the very end. I think we have some

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Speaker 2: lock wins here. Charlotte North Carolina James Madison Pitt Georgia

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Speaker 2: Tech at Virginia.

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Speaker 1: That's a tougher game at uv A.

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Speaker 2: But Clemson, they played Clemson the week before and they're

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Speaker 2: going to be looking ahead to that bye week after this.

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Speaker 1: Game, So I like that one for them.

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Speaker 2: Wake Forest coming off of bye and at home when

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Speaker 2: they play Week four est and then at Boston College.

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Speaker 2: I think those are all very winnable for the Tar Heels.

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Speaker 2: Good on defense, potentially really good on offense for North Carolina,

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Speaker 2: So I think seven and a half wins is something

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Speaker 2: that is absolutely achievable for them. Before I move on,

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Speaker 2: do you want to get a free trial of Betting

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Speaker 2: Pros Premium. If you've never had Betting Pros Premium, download

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Speaker 2: the Betting Pros app and activate your free FRBE trial

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Speaker 2: of Betting Pros Premium. On the upgrade screen, you get

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Speaker 2: expert picks, projections, are prop bet Analyzer, custom line alerts,

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Speaker 2: and much more for baseball, the MLB, NFL, and college football.

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Speaker 2: two day.

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Speaker 1: All right, I mentioned him.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about Florida State because I am on the

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Speaker 2: under for this team at nine and a half wins,

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Speaker 2: it's minus one ten, so it's even, which means, you know,

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Speaker 2: Vegas isn't on my side and the best aren't really

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Speaker 2: on my side right now. This one is just kind

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Speaker 2: of not being messed with. I still really like Florida State,

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Speaker 2: but this schedule is brutal and this team has changed

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Speaker 2: a lot from last season to this season. Jordan Travis,

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Speaker 2: Trey Benson, keonk Coleman, Johnny Wilson, Jahem Bell all gone

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Speaker 2: on offense. Defense, You lose versus Fiskey Green Jones, but Dune,

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Speaker 2: all these guys. Ten players in the NFL Draft are

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Speaker 2: gone from the squad. FSU is always going to recruit

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Speaker 2: well and they have a solid roster still, but.

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Speaker 1: The core of this team is just vastly different.

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Speaker 2: And when we look at the schedule, I see four

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Speaker 2: sure wins, four for sure wins against BC, against Memphis Cal,

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Speaker 2: Charleston Southern. I think those are four guarantees. I think

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Speaker 2: there's another three games on here that should be wins.

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Speaker 2: Georgia Tech August twenty fourth, that's in Dublin. They way

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Speaker 2: better than Georgia Tech Florida State, but that game on

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Speaker 2: the road, traveling a lot.

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Speaker 1: Stranger things have happened.

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Speaker 2: That should be a win for them, But stranger things

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Speaker 2: have happened at Duke October eighteenth. Duke has always played

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Speaker 2: Florida State pretty well. Like I said, it's a down

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Speaker 2: year for Duke. I don't think they should be competing,

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Speaker 2: but that game might be a little trickier than it looks.

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Speaker 2: And then the game against North Carolina that I mentioned before,

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Speaker 2: still think it's a dub for them, but UNC has

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Speaker 2: a very good core and are dangerous, as I mentioned

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Speaker 2: in the last preview, And this game is wedged between

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Speaker 2: at Miami and at Notre Dame, So you might be

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Speaker 2: coming off a tough loss hanging your head a little bit,

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Speaker 2: or you might be looking forward to Notre Dame in

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Speaker 2: that game against North Carolina. So I don't know about

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Speaker 2: that one. Then there's a bunch of games to me

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Speaker 2: that could go either way for this team at SMU.

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Speaker 2: This is a coin flip in terms of roster strength.

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Speaker 2: It's on the road and it's a look ahead spot

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Speaker 2: for Clemson for Florida State, so I don't love that

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Speaker 2: game for them. Then they have Clemson, they're at home.

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Speaker 2: That means FSU should win in that but talent is

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Speaker 2: a coin flip. This game is always tough every single

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Speaker 2: time they play at Miami. We already mentioned that one

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Speaker 2: tough on both teams. In terms of the schedule, FSU

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Speaker 2: is at Duke at Miami versus UNC at Notre Dame stretch,

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Speaker 2: while Miami is at Louisville FSU and then Duke. So

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Speaker 2: let's give Miami this game at home.

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Speaker 1: I think you know.

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Speaker 2: The home game goes to Miami there at Notre Dame,

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Speaker 2: another tough one. And while the current line I have

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Speaker 2: for that game is razor thin, I'm going to lean

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Speaker 2: towards Notre Dame at home and I'm going to go

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Speaker 2: with Notre Dame in that one as well. And then

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Speaker 2: versus Florida yet another game that is a very solid

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Speaker 2: rival game, the rivalry game. Now, look Florida at this

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Speaker 2: point the season. I mean, they should probably have a

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Speaker 2: new head coach. Maybe they're trying new things on offense.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, but it's not impossible that Florida looks good,

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Speaker 2: over performs and is in this game. That's still one

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Speaker 2: of the best teams in the country. Is still a

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Speaker 2: very good SEC team with a lot of talent. So

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Speaker 2: I don't know, man, when I think, when you look

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Speaker 2: critically at FSU's schedule, it's not my favorite. So I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna go ahead and bet the under on FSU last

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Speaker 2: two here, I got Houston over four and a half.

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Speaker 1: Now this flipped.

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Speaker 2: It was when I wrote this down on Monday or

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Speaker 2: Tuesday and recording this on Thursday, their total was three

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Speaker 2: and a half.

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Speaker 1: The juice was bad. It was minus one sixty. But

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Speaker 1: I was so.

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Speaker 2: Confident in that that I'm still willing to take this bet.

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Speaker 2: It's down to minus one twenty five and you add

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Speaker 2: an extra game, but I'm still willing to take this.

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Speaker 2: I think there are four guaranteed losses for Houston, and

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Speaker 2: three of them are road games at Oklahoma, at Kansas

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Speaker 2: at home, versus Utah at Arizona. I think those are

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Speaker 2: all likely losses. I would say that the game at

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Speaker 2: TCU is close to those games as well, but I

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Speaker 2: think it's a little more of a toss up, especially

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Speaker 2: with Houston being as dangerous as they were last year.

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Speaker 2: I live in the Houston area. I don't live close

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Speaker 2: to Houston. Actually live closer to Texas, A and M

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Speaker 2: than I do to the Cougars, But I think that

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Speaker 2: this team is good. I watched him play my Texas

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Speaker 2: Longhorns last season, right and they were so close to

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Speaker 2: winning that game. And I saw a lot from Donovan

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Speaker 2: Smith their NFL level QB. I mean, he is he

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Speaker 2: reminds me a lot of Ben Roethlisberger. He shugs off

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Speaker 2: the tacklers, he stands in there, he's got a big arm.

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Speaker 1: I like him a lot.

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Speaker 2: But in terms of the schedule, I think I think

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Speaker 2: I like Iowa State to beat Houston, but that game

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Speaker 2: is far from a guarantee. Just Iowa State has a

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Speaker 2: lot returning a lot of continuity. We got Houston with

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Speaker 2: a new head coach and Willie Fritz. I kind of

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Speaker 2: like Iowa State in that game. But there are other

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Speaker 2: games Rice at Sincy, Baylor at BYU are all doable

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Speaker 2: for Houston. I think they can win all of those games.

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Speaker 2: And you know this schedule, you're beating Rice, You're beating

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Speaker 2: Cincy for sure. So that's two wins. We're looking for

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Speaker 2: three more. I think between that group they can get

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Speaker 2: three more wins. I think this is all very doable

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Speaker 2: for them. I got a big influx of starters on

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Speaker 2: the defensive side because Willie Fritz is building WILLI Fritz

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Speaker 2: is a great game planner. I think those games that

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Speaker 2: are close are going to go to Houston more often

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Speaker 2: than not, so I don't think that it's just getting

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Speaker 2: to five wins for them. I see a potential Bowl

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Speaker 2: berth for Houston in this season. I think it can

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Speaker 2: really happen. And I think because you have an NFL

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Speaker 2: level QB in Donovan Smith, it gives your team a

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Speaker 2: little bit slighter of an edge. We're going to finish

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Speaker 2: out with an under Kansas State under nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: This is not the best Jews.

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Speaker 2: It is minus one point fifty, but I'm honestly kind

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Speaker 2: of surprised that this hasn't flipped down to eight and

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Speaker 2: a half or nine. As I said, with Houston bumping up.

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Speaker 2: K State was one of the more overperforming teams last season,

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Speaker 2: and the expectations are still a little high. Considering they

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Speaker 2: lost QB Will Howard, tight end Benson, offensive lineman Cooper Bebee,

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Speaker 2: and only have three returning starters on offense. I just

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Speaker 2: think that's going to be probably too much to overcome.

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Speaker 2: The defense is in good shape with seven returning starters,

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Speaker 2: but they were not on the same level as the offense,

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Speaker 2: they were more league average where our country average. You know,

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Speaker 2: the offense was very, very strong for them last season.

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Speaker 2: I think there are four guaranteed wins on the schedule

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Speaker 2: ut Martin BYU, Arizona State, and Cincinnati. Those are lock

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Speaker 2: wins for k State, so that's four. The home games

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Speaker 2: on the schedule are tough Arizona early in week three,

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Speaker 2: and they have Oklahoma State Week five, Kansas week nine.

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Speaker 2: Those are all tough games. The road games are rough

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Speaker 2: two at TWU Lane and week two at Colorado. They're

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Speaker 2: coming off of buye at Colorado, so maybe they get

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Speaker 2: that win at West Virginia though West Virginia is one

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Speaker 2: of the hardest locations in the country. Iowa State late

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Speaker 2: in the season, I think that one might be cold.

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Speaker 2: Like I said, there's a lot of returning starters for

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Speaker 2: Iowa State as well. Last week of the regular season

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Speaker 2: can be dicey. I just really think that I think

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Speaker 2: maybe Kansas State might be the safest of the ones.

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Speaker 2: I said, obviously you're getting the worst juice, but if

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Speaker 2: you're gonna wait all year, if I'm waiting all year,

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Speaker 2: I'm usually going to place a bigger bet than normal.

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Speaker 2: Two units, three units, however comfortable you feel doing that,

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Speaker 2: whatever unit is for you, of course as well, I

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Speaker 2: would rather do that for a bet that isn't giving

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Speaker 2: me the best juice, but that I really like. Let's

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Speaker 2: bet at heavy to get that investment back because it

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Speaker 2: seems like so much of a lock.

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Speaker 1: But one. Are your guys' favorite win totals. Let us know.

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Speaker 2: I would really love to hear some of them. I

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Speaker 2: really appreciate it. You can follow me on the Twitter

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Speaker 2: at Bogman Sports. I'll be back with some bets for

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Speaker 2: Week zero next week. Take it easy, everybody.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

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Speaker 2: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

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Speaker 2: Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL.

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Speaker 1: Also subscribe to our YouTube

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Speaker 2: Channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros