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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot?

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Speaker 2: They're up for running again? So smooth, so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 3: Sisting just glorious execution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that shop of mind.

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Speaker 1: But buddy, and that's why you.

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Speaker 3: See your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying again. The wall.

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Speaker 4: It's left to one, the wide eyed drill pibus, How

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Speaker 4: old earth big that happens?

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Speaker 2: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wondergul, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 2: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leebuff and

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Speaker 2: joining me as always are my friends and colleagues and

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Speaker 2: the du Bundo and BJ Cunningham. And this week we

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Speaker 2: have four Champions League matches, a handful of Premier League matches,

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Speaker 2: and we'll touch on Europa League to get you all

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Speaker 2: situated for betting on the footy before March Madness begins

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Speaker 2: on Thursday. So let's let's build your bankroll here and

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Speaker 2: we'll start with Manchester United hosting Atletico Madrid. United is

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Speaker 2: plus one twenty at home at Letty's coming in at

26
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Speaker 2: plus two sixty five. The draws plus two twenty. These

27
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Speaker 2: two were tied one to one on aggregate heading to

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Speaker 2: the Theater of Dreams. I think we can all agree

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Speaker 2: it was a pretty lucky result for United in the

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Speaker 2: first leg, and they have struggled a little bit with

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Speaker 2: when they've been punching up. They have a minus three

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Speaker 2: point four expected goal differential in their matches against Atletico

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Speaker 2: Tottenham and Man City. There was a good performance against

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Speaker 2: Watford that didn't end with the result that they wanted

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Speaker 2: and mixed in there, but it seems like United under

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Speaker 2: Ralph Ragnick is doing what they did under soul Shar,

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Speaker 2: which is they've taking care of business against inferior opposition

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Speaker 2: and then they are struggle and maybe getting lucky results

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Speaker 2: against better teams. Meanwhile, at Letty come into this one

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Speaker 2: in good defensive form. They've only allowed four point seven

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Speaker 2: expectacles against in their last six matches. And Diego Simioni

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Speaker 2: we talk about it in every Champions League episode that

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Speaker 2: this team is just really really tough to deal with

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Speaker 2: in knockout stages of competition. So I like let Itico

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Speaker 2: across the board. I like plus two sixty five on

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Speaker 2: the ninety minute money line, and I like them to advance.

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Speaker 2: Right now, United's minus one seventy two and at Letti's

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Speaker 2: plus one forty. So I'm going to take a shot

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Speaker 2: at Letty to advance, and uh, you know, I'll split

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Speaker 2: my stake on the three way money line. BJ, you

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Speaker 2: are always on at Letty in these situations, it seems

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Speaker 2: with me. How are you coming with me on Tuesday?

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Speaker 4: Yes, yes, yes, yes, this is I mean you. You

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Speaker 4: hit nail on the head. That was such a lucky

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Speaker 4: win for United in the first leg. Athletico one unexpectacles

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Speaker 4: one point three to point four, out touched them in

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Speaker 4: the penal of here twenty one to nine, and I.

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Speaker 1: Thought he even hit the post twice.

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Speaker 4: So it was just a completely dominant pformance even if

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Speaker 4: you look at I think in the first half United

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Speaker 4: had one show and point zero four expected goals, so

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Speaker 4: Athletico really should have gotten all three points. Now they

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Speaker 4: get to go to Old Trafford, where I think we've

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Speaker 4: been saying it quite a bit on this podcast released.

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Speaker 4: I have that this United team has not really changed

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Speaker 4: a whole lot from Olga and Solshar to Rangnik. The

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Speaker 4: three matches that they've played, they only had right there.

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Speaker 4: The three matches they've played against eleite competition, against Athletico,

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Speaker 4: Man City and Tottenham, they've only created a total of

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Speaker 4: one point nine expected goals, but they've scored four times

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Speaker 4: in those matches, a lot of it obviously against Tottenham

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Speaker 4: and Ronaldo doing.

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Speaker 1: Some some wonder strikes from outside the box.

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Speaker 4: But you know, Athletico defensively has been just you know,

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Speaker 4: typical athletic form of the past month. Four point seven

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Speaker 4: expected goals in the last six matches, and you know

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Speaker 4: for the season obviously there's third among Europe's top five

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Speaker 4: leagues and expected goals allowed. The one thing though, that

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Speaker 4: has very been very noticeable for United defensively is defending crosses.

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Speaker 4: Athletico in the first League completed three crosses in the

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Speaker 4: paladeria Gio Felix scored one of them. Against man City.

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Speaker 4: They completed four crosses in the penalty area. They scored

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Speaker 4: two of them against Tottenham. They technically didn't complete across

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Speaker 4: in the palid area, but that one cross was just

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Speaker 4: a wonderful goal by Hary McGuire. And you know, United

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Speaker 4: was supposed to be this amazing pressing team under Rangni.

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Speaker 4: That's why they brought him in, you know, as the

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Speaker 4: godfather of vgen pressing. Against the Lee competition, United only

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Speaker 4: had a twenty six percent pressurely success rate against Athletico,

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Speaker 4: only thirteen percent against Manchester City and then an only

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Speaker 4: twenty six percent again against Tottenham on the weekend. Even

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Speaker 4: though they held over sixty percent possession against Athletico in

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Speaker 4: the first leg, it meant absolutely nothing. So I am

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Speaker 4: totally with you. I actually have Athletico projected as a

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Speaker 4: slight favorite on the road Adel Trafford, so I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: go with them plus half a goal at minus one thirty.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you can really play Athletico any way you

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Speaker 4: want in this one to advance on the money line,

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Speaker 4: just any way possible. Athletico is going through to the quarterfinals.

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Speaker 2: Also, look at it this way. You're never out of

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Speaker 2: a game against Manchester United with the way their defense

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Speaker 2: is played. Whereas on the other hand, and Atletico gets

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Speaker 2: a lead, they are really tough to break down. And

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Speaker 2: if it's an early goal for at Letti, the probably

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Speaker 2: score again like this, That's my thinking here is the

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Speaker 2: there's really no way I can picture this game where

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Speaker 2: unitedors are just able to shut them down. And I

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Speaker 2: think anthey, that's kind of where you're going here, that

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Speaker 2: this game might be a little bit more high event

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Speaker 2: than a typical Atletico Madrid match in stereotypically is yeah.

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Speaker 3: I think narrative street here is, oh, you know, at

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Speaker 3: Letti's going to go and they're going to park the

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Speaker 3: bus and they're going to try to play for pens

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Speaker 3: for one hundred and twenty minutes. And I think there's

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Speaker 3: like a chance they do that and let United have

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Speaker 3: the ball and then dare them to beat them and

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Speaker 3: try to counterattack. And so the one concern here is

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Speaker 3: that at Letti isn't really going for it, but I

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Speaker 3: do think they can have success and transition here we

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Speaker 3: saw Tottenham. They had a few moves on Saturday that

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Speaker 3: almost came off, that almost turned into goals where they

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Speaker 3: had a number of situations and they just couldn't quite

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Speaker 3: get the final ball where it was just a little

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Speaker 3: off sown a couple of times in transition, he just

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Speaker 3: wasn't sharp. At Letti is the kind of team that

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Speaker 3: can really wreck you in that situation, and it really

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Speaker 3: wasn't like that in the first leg because ad Leti

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Speaker 3: did control a lot of the possession at home, so

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Speaker 3: I think as they go now to Old Trafford, I

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Speaker 3: think I will have more of the ball. But I

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Speaker 3: think really this comes down to game state, and I

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Speaker 3: think you mentioned a good point where if United gets

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Speaker 3: a lead here a let he has to come out.

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Speaker 3: They have to be more aggressive. Defending cross has been an

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Speaker 3: issue for United. Defending set piece has been an issue

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Speaker 3: for United. If you go back to the match just

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Speaker 3: on Saturday as well, it was a cross into the

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Speaker 3: penalty area that led to the handball that led to

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Speaker 3: the first goal, and then McGuire botching the second one.

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Speaker 3: Going to the City match again, McGuire's man marking wasn't

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Speaker 3: quite good. The United fullbacks are pretty bad defensively, and

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Speaker 3: I think Luke Shaw, for as much as people have

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Speaker 3: criticized him this year, he's quite underrated generally and his

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Speaker 3: absence has made a big difference to how well they're

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Speaker 3: defending out of the left back position, and Dalo especially,

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Speaker 3: you know Wamba Soaka, For as much as we make

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Speaker 3: fun of him going forward, as bad as he is,

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Speaker 3: he is pretty good defensively in one on one situations

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Speaker 3: and I think that's a big key for this United

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Speaker 3: defense and why they've been much worse when Dalho's been there,

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Speaker 3: even if they've been better going forward. So I think

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Speaker 3: all this points towards goals. I'm going against the narrative

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Speaker 3: that United that Aleti is just going to park here.

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Speaker 3: Both teams to score minus one fifteen. Now you could

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Speaker 3: wait and try to get a better number live, but

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Speaker 3: the concern is that you know, say it is, and

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Speaker 3: they'll know it half. That's only going to incentivize and

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Speaker 3: Letty to sit even deeper and try to play for penalties,

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Speaker 3: where I do think they have a decided advantage. I

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Speaker 3: know penalties tend to be pretty random, but I don't

161
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Speaker 3: quite think that's the case. When you're comparing O Block

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Speaker 3: and to Heya and you look at their penalty saving records.

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Speaker 3: I know O Block's been bad this year. That's a

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Speaker 3: potential live betting angle. If United's clearly not looking like

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Speaker 3: they're going to score, and the two advanced prices haven't

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Speaker 3: really changed, and you can get you know, plus one

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Speaker 3: ten plus one twenty on NLETI going into going into

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Speaker 3: extra time. I think that could be a good bet

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Speaker 3: because I do think they have an edge on pens

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Speaker 3: and as games have gone on for United, they have

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Speaker 3: really started to tire out. We saw that in the

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Speaker 3: City match. We saw that, uh you know in other

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Speaker 3: matches against Southampton and Burnley, especially dating back a few

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Speaker 3: few weeks now. So I think this all points towards,

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Speaker 3: you know, going against the narrative and expecting some goals.

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Speaker 3: So I took some both teams to score minus one fifteen. Again,

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Speaker 3: you could wait live, but there is the risk that

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Speaker 3: if there's an early goal that you're you're never going

179
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Speaker 3: to get that price. So that's that's what I did.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. One other thing I'll suggest before moving on is

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Speaker 2: Atletico is forty four to one to win the entire competition.

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Speaker 2: I don't hate that at all, and absolutely and the

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Speaker 2: thing with this team too is it's.

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Speaker 3: A quarterfinal draw is going to be brutal, though, I mean,

185
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Speaker 3: who they who they It.

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Speaker 2: Could who knows it could be, could team could.

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Speaker 3: End up every team left is going to be considerably

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Speaker 3: better than them.

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Speaker 2: Right, But I mean if Anthony, yeah, it's forty four

190
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Speaker 2: to one, and let's think about where they were, Let's

191
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Speaker 2: think about where they were when they opened, right, So

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Speaker 2: I'm just saying I don't hate that and we can

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Speaker 2: talk more about draws and they come out right now,

194
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Speaker 2: we have no idea who it's going to be. And

195
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Speaker 2: one other, just one quick other thing too is Ronaldo

196
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Speaker 2: has saved United's bacon so many times. And who knows

197
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Speaker 2: how to play against Cristiano Ronaldo better than Diego Simioni

198
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Speaker 2: and that let it go Madrid too, So don't expect

199
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Speaker 2: them to be found with their pants down when Christiano Ronaldo.

200
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Speaker 3: Is in the well. He does have quite the history

201
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Speaker 3: against them, to be fair, but I don't read into

202
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Speaker 3: that much, but like it is interesting and that should

203
00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:31,439
Speaker 3: help the attack for United and hurt the defense of

204
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Speaker 3: anything with his not pressing.

205
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Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to i X and Benfica

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Speaker 2: the other Tuesday kickoff. I X is minus two to

207
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Speaker 2: fifty five on the three way money line, but Fica

208
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Speaker 2: plus six fifty draw plus four twenty five IXes minus

209
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Speaker 2: five fifty to advance and Benficas plus three ninety despite

210
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Speaker 2: a two two draw in the first leg in Portugal.

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Speaker 2: All three of us have IX futures that we've been

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Speaker 2: on this team since before the Champions League groups they

213
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Speaker 2: just started. They were both unlucky and unimpressive in their

214
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Speaker 2: too two draw against Benfica, I would say, and it

215
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Speaker 2: does help I think a little bit that they were

216
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Speaker 2: able to play out a high event match in that

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Speaker 2: first match, right like that. If you get what we

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Speaker 2: saw in the first leg again, you would say that

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Speaker 2: IX deserves to be a big favorite. Right like two.

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Speaker 2: We're looking at almost four expected goals between the two

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Speaker 2: teams and that's just not going to suit Benfica. However,

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Speaker 2: I think the market is probably too high on IX

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Speaker 2: here in a ninety minute leg. I think the betting

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Speaker 2: value from a betting value perspective, is on Benfica. I

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Speaker 2: want to go near IX at this number, Anthony, what

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Speaker 2: about you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of CLV down the drain for me.

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Speaker 3: In the last leg, just not sure what Tanhag and

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Speaker 3: I X were doing. You know, they had a two

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Speaker 3: to one lead. They were clearly the better side in

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Speaker 3: the first half, created two big chances. There was a

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Speaker 3: fluke on goal that went against them. But the second half,

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Speaker 3: I mean, the fullbacks over and over and over and

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Speaker 3: over again got caught up the pitch and it was

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Speaker 3: just attack after counterattack after counterattack. Everyone looked like they

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Speaker 3: were going to score Benfica, and then the goal ends

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Speaker 3: up being pretty fluky where it's a long hit, it's

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Speaker 3: saved and then there's like a sprint foot race to

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Speaker 3: see who can get the rebound from outside the penalty area,

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Speaker 3: and then it gets tapped in for Benfica. I AX

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Speaker 3: has shown some concerns now, I think, and you know

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Speaker 3: the hole they have in defending these counters when the

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Speaker 3: fullbacks get so far up the pitch that they want

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Speaker 3: to play this possession passing football that they can be exposed.

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Speaker 3: And I think that's a concern now and something will

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Speaker 3: have to monitor as we get to the next round,

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Speaker 3: because I do think overall i AX is now at home.

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Speaker 3: They just need to win. I think they will win,

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Speaker 3: but that issue of killing off the game keeps me

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Speaker 3: from backing them in any kind of all spread type,

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Speaker 3: you know, minus one and a half type deal. Don't

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Speaker 3: really have a ton of interest there. Do think i

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Speaker 3: AX will win this, but a little bit concerned about

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Speaker 3: i X defensively and I think going forward they will score.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they ripped apart Benvega on multiple occasions in

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Speaker 3: the first half. They hit the post twice, so there

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Speaker 3: was plenty of chances for them to score. They should

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Speaker 3: have made it three to one. They didn't, and then

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Speaker 3: they paid for it. We've seen that movie before. I'm

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Speaker 3: not worried about I X in this leg. I think

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Speaker 3: they go through, but I don't have any action here.

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Speaker 2: All right, A weird one here On Wednesday between Lil

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Speaker 2: out of league Own. They're plus three twenty hosting Chelsea

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Speaker 2: minus one ten the Truss plus two sixty. Chelsea is

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Speaker 2: dealing with a just a lot of weird stuff off

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Speaker 2: the pitch with the Roman Bravivich sanctions. They are flying

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Speaker 2: to France for this. There was some talk about well

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Speaker 2: they would get there because part of the sanctions is

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Speaker 2: they're away. Travel is limited to twenty thousand euros. They

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Speaker 2: didn't seem granted the competition has been against a Owich

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Speaker 2: City and then Newcastle. They didn't seem too distracted. I

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Speaker 2: guess that's the best way to put it. Not that

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Speaker 2: you would be able to tell in those two matches

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Speaker 2: they looked good, and it could be that this is

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Speaker 2: a galvanizing moment for the players on the field more

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Speaker 2: than anything. Who knows. It's really hard to work what's

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Speaker 2: going on into a handicap, so almost not worth trying to. However,

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Speaker 2: I will say that, as much as I want to

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Speaker 2: back them, LIL, I just don't think they're built for

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Speaker 2: this kind of game state. They are very good defensive side,

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Speaker 2: probably the best defensive side in league, oh maybe just

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Speaker 2: behind PSG. But this is just I mean, they're chasing

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Speaker 2: two goals, they're fifteen to one to advance in Chelsea's

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Speaker 2: minus five thousand. I just don't think that this game

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Speaker 2: state will suit them. So I'm going to be passing

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Speaker 2: BJ anything here.

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Speaker 4: Ultimately probably passing might play another under two and a

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Speaker 4: half goals around minus one fifteen. I mean the first like,

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Speaker 4: Chelsea wasn't really actually that dominant. They score off the

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Speaker 4: corner in the eighth minute, but throughout the whole ninety

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Speaker 4: minutes they were outshot fifteen to ten by LIL. Possession

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Speaker 4: was about fifty to fifty in the expected goals, but

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Speaker 4: I was only one point two to two point five

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Speaker 4: in Chelsea's favor. And the biggest problem that I saw

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Speaker 4: that Chelsea had was they really struggled defending Ran not

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Speaker 4: to Sanchez up the right wing. I mean he punished

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Speaker 4: Marco Alonso and Rudiger countless times, five carries into the

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Speaker 4: final third. It's just without Ben Cholwell, they just don't

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Speaker 4: have a wing back that can defend on the left

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Speaker 4: side against a team that actually has a good right

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Speaker 4: midfielder or a winger going forward. For me, I don't

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Speaker 4: know if this is going to be a galvanizing type

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Speaker 4: situation with Chelsea.

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Speaker 1: I think it's more of just.

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Speaker 4: Kind of a get through it type of match for them.

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Speaker 4: This is their fifth match in two weeks. They're up

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Speaker 4: to nothing on aggregate. Who knows the travel hotel situation.

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Speaker 4: I was doing a little bit of reading on how

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Speaker 4: much it cost to travel away in the Premier League.

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Speaker 4: Typically with some of these bigger sizes, it's around twenty

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Speaker 4: thousand euros to stay in a luxury hotel, which the

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Speaker 4: players want to stay in because and that covers their

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Speaker 4: food and everything.

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Speaker 1: But so are they gonna have to stay in hostels

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Speaker 1: in Lil.

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Speaker 4: I don't really know what's gonna happen, but you know,

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Speaker 4: with the aggregate being to nothing, I really think that

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Speaker 4: Chelsea will probably just try to end up sitting deep

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Speaker 4: and looking to hit Lil on the counter and go

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Speaker 4: back to the dominant defensive side that we saw under

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Speaker 4: Twuchul last season. Lil they've been in somewhat of a

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Speaker 4: rut offensively over the past two months, only averaging around

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Speaker 4: one point two expected goals for match in their last twelve.

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Speaker 4: What's even more concerning is is during that time they

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Speaker 4: played Marseille, PSG, LIL and Chelsea and they're only able

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Speaker 4: to create three point one expected goals in those four matches.

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Speaker 4: So given the fact that Chelsea's up to nothing on

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Speaker 4: aggregate and they don't really need to press forward, I

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Speaker 4: do think there is some value on under two and

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Speaker 4: a half at minus one oh five. You know, Lil

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Speaker 4: plus half a goal at minus one ten is potentially

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Speaker 4: has a little bit of value as well. I just

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Speaker 4: really don't see Chelsea trying to go and win this

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Speaker 4: match and really trying to go forward. I really just

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Speaker 4: see them sitting deep and just trying to see this

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Speaker 4: match through.

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Speaker 2: I think we're on in agreement there. It's Anthony, you

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Speaker 2: have like twenty seconds to talk about this one. Where

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Speaker 2: are you passing?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Leo had the same number of shot creating actions,

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Speaker 3: almost the same number of proguestive passes, managed nine shots

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Speaker 3: in the first half, came close on a few counters.

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Speaker 3: Like Beach mentioned, they were closer than that score line suggests.

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Speaker 3: It's actually kind of similar to the Liverpool ter for me,

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Speaker 3: where I thought in large stretches Leo were relatively comparable

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Speaker 3: to Chelsea and then just couldn't quite you know, in

347
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Speaker 3: the key moments, Chelsea was better. They won the match.

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Speaker 3: Leo has nothing to lose here. They're playing for it.

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Speaker 3: Team total over maybe plus a half. Maybe I think

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Speaker 3: the Chelsea's a little inflated. The number has come down.

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Speaker 3: Chelsea opened minus one thirty. I missed that number. I

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Speaker 3: wish I had gotten it and faded them there Now

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Speaker 3: that John and minus one tennis not a ton in

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Speaker 3: it for me, but definitely lean toward Leo and maybe

355
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Speaker 3: a live team total over or something if that number

356
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Speaker 3: comes down and Leo looks dangerous.

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Speaker 2: The other Wednesday game is Juventus there minus one ten

358
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Speaker 2: favorites at home hosting Fia Real the Yellow Submarine versus

359
00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,280
Speaker 2: the Old Lady far realities plus three twenty. The draw

360
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Speaker 2: here is plus two fifty five. This one was also

361
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Speaker 2: one one on aggregate. Vey still is minus two ten

362
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Speaker 2: to advance fa Real plus one sixty eight. This I

363
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Speaker 2: kind of look at this one similarly to the United

364
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Speaker 2: Atletico showdown, where there's probably some name brand inflation going

365
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Speaker 2: on here with Juventus. The early goal who's at Lehovich

366
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Speaker 2: scored in the first minute or second minute for Juventus

367
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Speaker 2: in the first like and then from that point on.

368
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Speaker 2: I thought that vi a Rial were good. They were impressive.

369
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Speaker 2: The expected goals bear that out. And via Real has

370
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Speaker 2: been really good defensively lately. They've allowed less than one

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Speaker 2: expected goal in each of the last four matches, including

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Speaker 2: the Champions League match against Juventus. So I think a

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Speaker 2: shot on via Real on the three way money line

374
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Speaker 2: plus three twenty and two advance plus one sixty eight.

375
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Speaker 2: I think you might be able to find a better

376
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Speaker 2: number as we get closer to kickoff. There, give me

377
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Speaker 2: the Yello summary. I think this is a really tricky

378
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Speaker 2: spot for a Juventus club that's still just They're just

379
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Speaker 2: not on the same level as the true elites this season.

380
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Speaker 2: So I have no problem trying to take them on here.

381
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Speaker 4: What about you, bja A, Absolutely, Michael, this is another

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Speaker 4: unbelievably fantastics for Virel, who is drastically undervalued here against Juventus. Yeah,

383
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Speaker 4: Uventus scored what thirty seconds into the first leg. You

384
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Speaker 4: hit the nail on the head remaining eighty nine minutes

385
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Speaker 4: and thirty seconds. Viral completely dominated them one point it

386
00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:16,080
Speaker 4: was one point one to expect goals to point five.

387
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Speaker 4: They outshot Uventus, they outtouched them in the penalty area.

388
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,119
Speaker 4: But the biggest thing in what we've been harping on

389
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Speaker 4: for a while now is the Real over the past

390
00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 4: three or four months has been one of the best

391
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Speaker 4: teams in all of Europe by expected goals since December tenth,

392
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Speaker 4: Viil averaging one point nine to five expected goals four

393
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Speaker 4: per match, only allowing point nine three. On the flip side,

394
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Speaker 4: Juventus over that exact same time span only averaging one

395
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Speaker 4: point one expected goals per match, allowing one point zero five.

396
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Speaker 4: So they've been really just an average team over the

397
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Speaker 4: last three months. And the thing about Juventus is, you know,

398
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Speaker 4: their defense really isn't at the elite level that we've

399
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Speaker 4: seen in years past, especially in Syria and the Champions League.

400
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Speaker 4: They're in Syria, they're ninth in shots lad for ninety,

401
00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 4: eighth in box entries and tenth and Cross has completed

402
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Speaker 4: their own pallad area. So I think it's a little

403
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Speaker 4: crazy that Viil is this significant underdogs, especially what we

404
00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:07,480
Speaker 4: saw in the first leg. I actually have this match

405
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Speaker 4: predicted really close to a pick them, So I love

406
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Speaker 4: Vieil anyway you can get them. I'll take them plus

407
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,080
Speaker 4: half a goal at minus one o five. But really

408
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Speaker 4: to advance on the money line, there's just so much.

409
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Speaker 2: Value in Vireal in the second leg. Yeah, An Denny,

410
00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,080
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna make it three for three here.

411
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Speaker 3: Yeah. You know, we all backed Viuria on the first

412
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Speaker 3: leg and they drew, and I don't really see anything

413
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Speaker 3: that happened in that match that makes me change my

414
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:32,720
Speaker 3: opinion of either team. So let's go to what's happened

415
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:37,720
Speaker 3: since Viil smashed Espanol five to one three point eight

416
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Speaker 3: expected goals, did lose o souna pretty poor performance there,

417
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Speaker 3: and they beat Celta Vigo over the weekend. So overall,

418
00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:47,640
Speaker 3: not much has changed in my opinion of Virial since

419
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:50,560
Speaker 3: that match either. But Juventus, I mean, I've I've seen

420
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:54,360
Speaker 3: they've been downgraded considerably. They conceded two goals to Emplity,

421
00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:58,399
Speaker 3: they lost the expected goals battle to Sampdoria. They were

422
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Speaker 3: marginally better than Specia. Those are three of the seven

423
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Speaker 3: worst teams in Syria. They had a plus point nine

424
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Speaker 3: expect the goal difference across those three matches and the

425
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Speaker 3: one decent match they played one decent team they played

426
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Speaker 3: Copa Italia semifinals, outshot twenty two to six, scored an

427
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 3: own goal just before stoppage time to win one nil

428
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 3: against Fiorentina. This UVA team continues to underwhelm in their

429
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,639
Speaker 3: underlying numbers. I just don't really see what everybody likes

430
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:27,120
Speaker 3: about them so much. And I know, but Jovic will

431
00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 3: score again and he'll he'll ruin me. That guy owns me.

432
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Speaker 3: But you know, he's kind of cool off at some

433
00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:36,439
Speaker 3: point the performance continues. He's only had two shots in

434
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 3: the first match, so think about that. He scored a

435
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 3: goal on his first shot. In the thirty seconds into

436
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,359
Speaker 3: the match. He took one shot from outside the box.

437
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 3: V Out an excellent job of keeping him in check.

438
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:49,879
Speaker 3: And you mentioned at BJA, you know how they've been

439
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:51,960
Speaker 3: a truck in Spain well over the course of the

440
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,040
Speaker 3: entire season. Plus point sixty one expect the goal difference

441
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:58,159
Speaker 3: per ninety in Spain versus plus point three eight expect

442
00:20:58,160 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 3: the goal difference in Italy. It's not that easy, but

443
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,400
Speaker 3: the better league they have better performances. In that league

444
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,119
Speaker 3: and very Al's pressed well, so I think they'll be

445
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,639
Speaker 3: very comfortable playing on the counter here. You bys have

446
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 3: to go win it pressures on them. They're the favorite.

447
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,479
Speaker 3: I'm going with the underdogs as well, so I think

448
00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 3: they get this an extra time at worst, might even

449
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:14,840
Speaker 3: win it.

450
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,879
Speaker 2: We're all on the Yellow Submarine. They've slowly become a

451
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 2: team of the podcast, so no surprise there, and we'll

452
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,280
Speaker 2: start the Premier League portion. There are one two three

453
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,400
Speaker 2: games in the midweek with a former team of the podcast.

454
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 2: That's Brighton Hope Albion. They're plus two twenty against Anthony

455
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:32,439
Speaker 2: Spurs plus one thirty on the road to draw here

456
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:34,479
Speaker 2: is plus two forty five. This is the first kickoff

457
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 2: on Wednesday, the three thirty pm Eastern time kick before

458
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,880
Speaker 2: the headliner, which we'll get to next. The Seagulls there

459
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:46,000
Speaker 2: in bad form Tottenham roller coaster A. This is kind

460
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 2: of a weird matchup. I can't get a read on

461
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 2: either of these two teams at the moment. Right now,

462
00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:53,200
Speaker 2: I think I would lean towards Tottenham at the current price,

463
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 2: but I'll likely be passing because I think Spurs deserved

464
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 2: a little bit better from what we saw at Old

465
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 2: Trafford today, Anthony, what about you?

466
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I linked toward the over two and a half

467
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:07,479
Speaker 3: goals plus one ten Spurs overs. You know they've been

468
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 3: they've been loot bet regret of the year probably was.

469
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 3: I was actually looking at the over in the United

470
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 3: Spurs game. I was like, okay, I'm gonna give it

471
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 3: like fifteen minutes. Then hop in live. I said, all right,

472
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 3: we're hopping in live, went out of the sports buck

473
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 3: to bet it. Of course, there's a little bit of

474
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,719
Speaker 3: a delay. Then the bet locked and they read man

475
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 3: United one Spurs nol. I looked up and although it

476
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 3: hit a banger into the top corner, and I was like, well,

477
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 3: I guess we're not betting the United Spurs over. So

478
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 3: my opinion of either team is simple. Spurs have actually

479
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:39,920
Speaker 3: had a good amount of success against Brighton going forward.

480
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 3: They played in the FA Cup not that long ago

481
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 3: in January, and Spurs created a ton of chances in

482
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 3: that match. They were really able to break through Brighton.

483
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 3: When you press and you try to come out and

484
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:55,439
Speaker 3: play Tottenham, the space gets opened up in behind, and

485
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 3: that's when Spurs are at their best. Someone asked Frank

486
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:02,439
Speaker 3: Lampard how he feels about that after Monday's debacle, and

487
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 3: you can even go back to the city match, same

488
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 3: thing and leads when Spurs scored four goals. I think

489
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,200
Speaker 3: that's a matchup thing where Spurs are just very good

490
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:14,159
Speaker 3: at that and the defense continues to have issues with

491
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 3: crosses and that's a Brighton thing. They love those cutbacks,

492
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 3: they love those crosses when they're able to get them.

493
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 3: So I think that that you know, you even throw

494
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 3: in the regression indicators. Spurs have certainly heated up offensively

495
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,920
Speaker 3: as we said they would, Brighton have not. They're a

496
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 3: little bit on the Spurs path and they've been missing

497
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,360
Speaker 3: all their chances of late. Hasn't been the case all year,

498
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 3: but it's been the case of late. So I think that,

499
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 3: you know, the indicators all point towards the over here

500
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 3: and that's where I would I would look two and

501
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:40,879
Speaker 3: a half plus one ten.

502
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 2: BJ you have a slightly and I guess towards towards

503
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 2: your seagulls here. I do think Anthony bring up a

504
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 2: good point like there's there's a way to play against

505
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 2: Spurs and there's a way to not play against Spurs,

506
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:53,159
Speaker 2: and Brighten only know how to play one way. It

507
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 2: seems so that it does give you a little bit

508
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 2: of trepidation here, but BJ you're not that scared.

509
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 4: No, I mean the numbers got to get there for me,

510
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 4: Like I have Tottenham projected around plus one fifty, so

511
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 4: you could say a little bit of value on Brighton.

512
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 4: But I'm gonna need some big time Tottenham's team to

513
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 4: play Brighton here plus half a goal. It probably got

514
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,400
Speaker 4: to be about on minus one fifteen, minus one twenty

515
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 4: or better.

516
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 1: I just Brighton. I don't really think they're this bad.

517
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 4: You know, they've obviously the underlying performances have been bad

518
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 4: over the last five matches, and you know, you go

519
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 4: through those you're like, okay United, they got a red

520
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 4: card even though they were the better team for you know,

521
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,120
Speaker 4: the first half. Then they go and play Burnley. Burnley

522
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 4: just scores three off three low quality chances, beats them

523
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 4: three nothing. Pretty poor performance against Aston Villa pretty much

524
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 4: dominated the match against Newcastle and everything step gave a

525
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 4: few big chances. And against Liverpool this past weekend you

526
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 4: know they got dominated. So uh, just really bad performances

527
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 4: from them. But I don't I just think we've reached

528
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 4: the bottom of the barrel on them, but market has

529
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 4: clearly not reacted that way. I was kind of hoped

530
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 4: thinking Tottenham was going to be you know, minus one

531
00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 4: ten minus one fifteen, especially with this meeting a ton

532
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,120
Speaker 4: to them in the race for not only the top

533
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 4: four but the top six. Right now, well, Brighton's pretty

534
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 4: you know, they're thirteenth, but they're pretty comfortably in the

535
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 4: mid table. But I just don't really think Brighton can

536
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 4: get this much worse. But again, they have City on deck,

537
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 4: so it could get much worse for the Seagulls and

538
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 4: they could dip down to fourteenth or fifteenth place. But again,

539
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,360
Speaker 4: the numbers got to get there. For me, it's got

540
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 4: to be Brighton plus half a goal at minus one

541
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,879
Speaker 4: twenty or better. If it gets there, I'll probably end

542
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 4: up playing it. Than that, I'll probably be passing.

543
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 2: All right. Perhaps the biggest midweek match that we've seen

544
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 2: all year Wednesday afternoon, four to fifteen pm Eastern Arsenal

545
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 2: plus three forty hosting Liverpool minus one thirty. The draw

546
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 2: here is three to one. Man City is still minus

547
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 2: three thirty odds on to win the Premier League. Liverpool's

548
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 2: shortened to plus two fifty City plays Crystal Palace on Monday.

549
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 2: We're recording this before that, so that could change a

550
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 2: little bit, should that brisoco one way or the other.

551
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 2: This is a tricky spot though, I think for Liverpool

552
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 2: going on the road, like you were talking about with

553
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 2: Chelsea and we've we've said it a couple of times

554
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 2: already with Liverpool, they have been playing a ton of

555
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 2: soccer across a ton of different competitions. That hasn't really

556
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 2: slowed down here and well and Arsenal their schedule kind

557
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 2: of just opened up for them over February somehow, but

558
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:21,680
Speaker 2: I feel like they were playing once every couple of

559
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 2: weeks and so there will definitely be fresher. However, their

560
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 2: fatal flaws I think are right for Liverpool to pick off,

561
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 2: which is a defense that's still leaking. They are creating

562
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 2: scoring chances and they are scoring. Arsenal is and Liverpool,

563
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 2: as we've talked about, is once again do for some

564
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 2: more defensive aggression and I think that is going to

565
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,479
Speaker 2: give me enough to be on the gunners here at

566
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:51,680
Speaker 2: home at a decent number. Before bj goes on his soliloquy, Anthony,

567
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 2: what do you have here?

568
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 3: I have a very interesting, you know, match that I

569
00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 3: want to watch and the match that I'm very interest

570
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,360
Speaker 3: to learn more about. I think we know what Liverpool

571
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 3: is at this point. I think we have a very

572
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 3: clear read on them and it. You know, Arsenal had

573
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 3: an interesting strategic approach on New Year's Day when they

574
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 3: played against City that was very different from what they

575
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 3: had done in the past when they played Big six teams,

576
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 3: most notably the Big Three Chelsea Liverpool City, where they

577
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,440
Speaker 3: had been very, very poor since our tenant took over.

578
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 3: It was really an ongoing issue they would get completely cooked. Well.

579
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 3: They went out and they put a lot of pressure

580
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,439
Speaker 3: on the pitch and they ran and they ran and

581
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:32,959
Speaker 3: they ran, and they played really well and they were

582
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 3: the better side for the first hour until the red card.

583
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 3: And BJ's still mad about it. I'll be mad about

584
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 3: it five years from now. You'll see beach on the street.

585
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 3: I'll say, remember that time they gave us a bad

586
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,719
Speaker 3: red card against City. But I think if they come

587
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,640
Speaker 3: out with that same approach, it go two ways. One

588
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 3: they get completely destroyed, and I think there's a very

589
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,920
Speaker 3: real chance that Liverpool goes to the Emirates and just

590
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 3: runs them. And I also think there's a real chance

591
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 3: that we've talked about it is Liverpool defense that has

592
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 3: shown some holes and has shown to have some issues

593
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 3: can get exposed a little bit in transition, and I

594
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:10,199
Speaker 3: think Arsenal could cause some problems there. Those that all

595
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 3: points to the over as well. The number is right

596
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 3: for me on the total, So I'm passing on this match.

597
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 3: If you want to chase a money line or an

598
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,360
Speaker 3: alt line on Liverpool, I don't hate it. I think

599
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,400
Speaker 3: this game has a lot The airbars on this game

600
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:27,120
Speaker 3: are pretty wide in my opinion, and so overall I'm

601
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 3: going to pass. I'm gonna be watching very excited for it.

602
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be a great match, but not

603
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 3: reading too much into it.

604
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 2: My ultra specific position here is that somebody will be

605
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 2: getting a very controversial penalty and some the other fan

606
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 2: base will just be freaking out because these two fan bases,

607
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 2: more than any maybe in all sports outside of the

608
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 2: Toronto Maple Leafs, think that the officiating is that to

609
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 2: get them, and it couldn't be further from the truth. BJ.

610
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 2: Do you have the intestinal fortitude to get down on

611
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 2: your gunners here?

612
00:28:58,040 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 1: No?

613
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 4: From the price standpoint, and I actually think there's a

614
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 4: little bit of value on Liverpool. But that being said,

615
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,959
Speaker 4: I'm very very excited to watch this match. Arsenal is

616
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 4: the hottest team in the Premier League right now, one

617
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 4: to four straight, eight of their last ten, and since

618
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,719
Speaker 4: December eleventh, when the Arsenal run started with a three

619
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 4: nine win against Southampton, the Gunners are averaging two point

620
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 4: three expected goals per match.

621
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 1: That's an elite level offense. Now.

622
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 4: Normally, like you mentioned, the narrative around Arsenal is they

623
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 4: play very well against everyone.

624
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 1: Else and then when they go play Liverpool City and

625
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: Chelsea they just can't compete and they get smashed.

626
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 4: Well, Anthony already mentioned it, but they press City a

627
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 4: lot in that first half and they were the better

628
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,959
Speaker 4: side for sixty minutes, and that I think is going

629
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 4: to flip the narrative on Arsenal against a lot of

630
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 4: these better sides. From a Liverpool standpoint, they have to

631
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 4: be just exhausted coming into this match is their sixth

632
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 4: match in seventeen days. I understand they're all healthy and

633
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 4: they have options to rotate their squad, but they also

634
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 4: don't at the same time because there's con say terly

635
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 4: deep in three different competitions. So Anthony mentioned Liverpool defensively

636
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 4: has been good as of late if you look at

637
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 4: their expected goals, but against top seven sides, they haven't

638
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:13,719
Speaker 4: really been that dominant against top seven teams around one

639
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 4: point four expected goles louder match against the rest of

640
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 4: the Premier League point seventy to nine expectacles loud per match.

641
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 1: Also, the status of most Sala is up in the

642
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 1: air right now.

643
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 4: He's questionable at the time of taping this, but the

644
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 4: reality is now that Liverpool has Luis Diez, they have

645
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 4: plenty of depth in their front three, where I don't

646
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 4: think the loss of Sala is completely detrimental to their

647
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 4: offense and really affects playing something like an over or

648
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 4: Liverpool in this one. So I actually love the over

649
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 4: end this spot. I mean Liverpool's offense. It's getting up

650
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 4: there with Byron right now. They've created over seventy expectacles

651
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 4: this season, which is over two point five per match,

652
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 4: averaging almost twenty shots match, and they've created seventy four

653
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 4: big scoring.

654
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 1: Chances this season.

655
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 4: So I have around three point five goals projected, so

656
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 4: over three goals and plus one ten is good enough

657
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 4: for me. On the over, but again very very excited

658
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 4: for like the first time in gosh, it's I may

659
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 4: have been like seven or eight years with Arsenal where

660
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 4: I literally am excited to sit down and watch this

661
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 4: team because they are so much fun to watch. And

662
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 4: I really hope Early Holland changes his mind about going

663
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 4: to City and comes to Arsenal.

664
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 3: No, it's funny BJ doing that fan thing there that

665
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:23,959
Speaker 3: makes you want to sell high so badly on Arsenal.

666
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 3: Now stop, it really does, it really does, because look

667
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 3: and I know that, like we do this all the

668
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 3: time with Arteta, and like we were getting amped up

669
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 3: for the big game against Liverpool last time because Arsenal

670
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 3: were on a really good ride.

671
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 1: Well no I wasn't, okay.

672
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 2: But I.

673
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 3: You were. But Arsenal fans are very prevalent on my Twitter,

674
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 3: and they definitely were pretty amped up and confident about

675
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 3: that one. And I think it is important to note

676
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 3: they did play twice in January. Liverpool were clearly the

677
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 3: better side in the first leg was somewhat rotated squad.

678
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 1: There's a lot of COVID things going on.

679
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 3: I believe there was one COVID case that Arsenal had

680
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 3: it caused them to cancel a certain match. But yeah,

681
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 3: I think Liverpool were the better side in those matches,

682
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 3: both home and away, so I'm thinking maybe I'll sell

683
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 3: high on Arsenal here. But again, Liverpool have also won

684
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 3: every match they've played for the last month, except for

685
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 3: the inter loss, which was still a win in aggregate.

686
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 3: So I don't have a strong opinion here on the side,

687
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 3: but I do think the airbars are wide all right.

688
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 2: Championship bound Everton or plus one thirty five posting Newcastle

689
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 2: plus two twenty the draw is plus two thirty five.

690
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 2: When you look at the Everten squad, it doesn't look

691
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 2: near like there are too many good players on this

692
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 2: team to go down. That is the narrative surrounding them

693
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 2: until you get to the back four. And when you

694
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 2: get to the back four you see, oh well, that

695
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 2: is actually a championship defense. And if you have a

696
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 2: championship level defense, that can totally undo any club, including

697
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 2: one that has a pedestrian rest of the lineup. Still,

698
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 2: I mean, I think you guys wild both say to

699
00:32:57,480 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 2: me here that the betting value from a numbers perspective

700
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 2: is on Everton, But I think that there's more that

701
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 2: goes into this right now with this club like it's

702
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 2: if you watch the Wolves game today, you watch the

703
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 2: team that was just a shell of itself, especially when

704
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 2: they went down one nil. Any bit of adversity that

705
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 2: decide faces they seem to wilt. And their tactics against Wolves,

706
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 2: I should say too, were just a mess five in

707
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 2: the back trying to play it out of the back

708
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 2: down a man. It was just not a not a

709
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 2: great one from from Frank Lampard build. The players outside

710
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 2: of Anthony Gordon and Ver Charleston didn't really do much either.

711
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 2: All this is to say that I'll probably be betting

712
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 2: on Everton at one plus one thirty five at home

713
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 2: against Newcastle. This is a clear numbers played, but I

714
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 2: do want to see the lineup I think you're going

715
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 2: John Joe Kenny, auditioned by subscribe subtraction, got picked up

716
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 2: a red card so he won't be available. Hopefully that

717
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 2: means Nathan Patterson, who you know is a bright prospect

718
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 2: from Rangers, comes in and breathe some life into a

719
00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 2: back line that needs it. It's to say I'm really

720
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 2: sad this Everdon team they have. There's a clear path

721
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 2: out of relegation for them, and it's get wins against Burnley, Brentford,

722
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:11,760
Speaker 2: Newcastle and Watford. Get like three out of those four wins,

723
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 2: and you might as well call those clubs Barcelona, Real, Madrid,

724
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 2: Man City and Bayern Munich with the way this team's playing.

725
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 2: That being said, Newcastle, let's just talk about them for

726
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 2: a second. They're on, They're they're having trouble creating offense

727
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 2: coming in, so hopefully that plays into Everden's hands with

728
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:30,879
Speaker 2: their terrible defense only one point oh six expected goals

729
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 2: for in their last two matches for Newcastle. This match also,

730
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 2: by the way, has the same odds basically as what

731
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 2: we saw for Everton and Wolves on Sunday. So I'm

732
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:42,240
Speaker 2: a little surprise there too. All Right, I should stop

733
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 2: bjay Everton in Newcastle.

734
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, very happy to pass here.

735
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 4: I would say that from a season long projection standpoint

736
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 4: that Everton would have a little bit of value. But

737
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 4: my sentiment on Newcastle has has turned. Even with the

738
00:34:57,600 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 4: loss to Chelsea today, they were actually weren't that bad.

739
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 4: I mean, Eddie Howe has somehow gotten this defense to

740
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 4: actually play really well. I mean they haven't allowed over

741
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 4: one point three expecting goals since December nineteenth. That's that's

742
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 4: a big time improvement from what we saw in the

743
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 4: beginning of the season. Everton, Michael, Look, they're not going down. Okay,

744
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 4: they have a game in hand on Burnley.

745
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 2: That's okay. It doesn't matter game in hand. They have

746
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:27,359
Speaker 2: to play Burnley too. At Burnley. The difference between Evert

747
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 2: like every All right, let me just look at the

748
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 2: the ads right New York City. They're going down. They're

749
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 2: minus one hundred of the man's like ten thousand, Well,

750
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 2: Watford minus six fifty, Burnley minus one thirty five, Leads

751
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 2: plus one seventy five everdence two to one.

752
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 3: I like Leads a lot more than I like Everton.

753
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 3: I had this debate with somebody yesterday. I think down Leads.

754
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 3: I think Leads is better than Everton.

755
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, me too, I think so as well. And I

756
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 2: think that if you you can argue that it's almost

757
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 2: a coin flip between Burnley and Evertten because Burnley is

758
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 2: set up to play in this kind of situation where

759
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 2: you're just collecting points and it doesn't matter how you play.

760
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:02,879
Speaker 2: Everydon is not like that, So this is.

761
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 3: It's I mean, also, I'm looking at the Burnley schedule now,

762
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 3: I mean they have city city sits.

763
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:13,319
Speaker 2: Left, Yeah, Chelsea United, Arsenal two against Leicester. I mean

764
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:15,280
Speaker 2: it's it's trust me. I've looked at all this stuff.

765
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 2: I'm telling you that if you from a pure betting perspective,

766
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 2: if you gave me these four teams first of all,

767
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 2: one of the first bets I would make would be

768
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 2: Watford to stay up because Perhapson has this team playing

769
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 2: in a way that's conducive to staying up. Their amount

770
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 2: of games played is a little concerning, but they still

771
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:34,480
Speaker 2: play Everden and they're playing them at home, and I

772
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,439
Speaker 2: don't I want to put it past Watford catching them,

773
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 2: Like I have zero confidence in everdon to stay up

774
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 2: at this point. It's it's wholly depressing. But you're saying

775
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 2: that they're not getting relegated.

776
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 1: I think that they're not getting relegated there.

777
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 2: I think it's fifty to fifty.

778
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,720
Speaker 1: Honestly, Oh, it's you see. I understand you're an Everton

779
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 1: fan and you're overreacting.

780
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 4: To this, but a one point lead on Burnley with

781
00:36:57,200 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 4: a game in hand on them, they're fine, all right?

782
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:03,959
Speaker 1: The way more talent than Burnley, doesn't It doesn't matter

783
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 1: more talent than them crying together, It'll be fine. Like

784
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 1: there really.

785
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 3: Awful line, awful managerial. You know. Most we talked about

786
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 3: the new manager bump. They've lost five or six in

787
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,720
Speaker 3: the lampard and the only win was against Leeds.

788
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:22,399
Speaker 2: One of those losses, one of those losses against City

789
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 2: was a very good performance. Which that's what's baffling about this, right,

790
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:27,840
Speaker 2: It's like they played so well against City, playing a

791
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 2: four three three at home, did well in the midfield,

792
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 2: and then today he goes with a two man midfield

793
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 2: and five in the back against Wolves who, by the way, Wolves,

794
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 2: they were totally at the races, they were really good.

795
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 3: Bruno Lage should be noted better XG difference this year.

796
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:44,760
Speaker 3: Who do you think has a better XG difference? Everton

797
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 3: or Wolves?

798
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:46,720
Speaker 1: It's got to be everything.

799
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 3: It's Everton, Yeah, yeah, I.

800
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 2: Mean they had a good start to the season. They

801
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 2: had a legitimately good start to the season where they

802
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 2: were putting up good underlying metrics and the results were lagging.

803
00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 2: And then all of a sudden, do you know how

804
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 2: many wins they've had they've had in their last nineteen

805
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:02,880
Speaker 2: Premier I guess Arsenal.

806
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure it's I'm pretty sure it's one.

807
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:05,439
Speaker 2: Two, it's two.

808
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 3: Oh, the Arsenal match and then the lead right.

809
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:10,800
Speaker 2: Two wins and guess how many draws.

810
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with two tree two.

811
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 2: They've gotten points in four out of nineteen matches in

812
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 2: in the pre Premier League. That's bad. I mean, that's

813
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 2: that's relegation for so well.

814
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:23,719
Speaker 1: They're still in the f A Cup.

815
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm here for Everton winning the f A

816
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 3: Cup playing and.

817
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:34,360
Speaker 1: Being uh two to one favorite win the championship.

818
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, if they go down, they lose this.

819
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:39,320
Speaker 3: If they lose this match and then lose to Watford,

820
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 3: is Lampard fired?

821
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know, it's good.

822
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:43,239
Speaker 3: I think you have to consider it.

823
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 2: I think I think so too, if you're I don't

824
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 2: know anyways, Michael, if.

825
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 4: They if they go down, you and me can do

826
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 4: a championship podcast every week.

827
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll come on and and bet my I guess

828
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 3: bourn Myths coming up. So I guess I can't really

829
00:38:56,920 --> 00:38:57,319
Speaker 3: do that.

830
00:38:57,520 --> 00:39:02,959
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm QP all right before Coventry City Press.

831
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:05,879
Speaker 2: I'm gonna move us on Europa League real quick, one

832
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 2: minute each DJ, What do you have for us in

833
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 2: Neuropa League.

834
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 4: Well, I know me and Anthey are on the same

835
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 4: side and it lay on ports, and so I'll let

836
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 4: him take that one. But Red Star Belgrade Rangers I

837
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 4: love over two and a half goals and minus won

838
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 4: twenty five. Rangers won the first leg three to nothing,

839
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 4: pretty fraud on the score line. They scored one of

840
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:25,440
Speaker 4: their goals off of penalty. Red Star Belgrade missed a penalty,

841
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:28,400
Speaker 4: so the final non penalty expected goal line was point

842
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 4: nine for Rangers and point one four.

843
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 1: For Red Stars.

844
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 4: And the thing is is that Red Star they were

845
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 4: due to overconcede goals in the Europa League during the

846
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 4: group stage on a lot of four goals off of

847
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 4: seven point three expected goals. And they're also one of

848
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 4: the more prolific offenses outside the top ten leagues in Europe,

849
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:45,320
Speaker 4: and especially in the Europa.

850
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 1: League year and in year out.

851
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 4: In the Serbian super League this year, they're averaging a

852
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 4: whopping two point five six expected goals per match. That's

853
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:54,800
Speaker 4: over pretty much a full seasoncause there's only four matches

854
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 4: left to mesquid for them, so it's kind of insane.

855
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 4: I don't care what league you're in to maintain that

856
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,279
Speaker 4: for an entire season, especially that areing Servius eleventh most

857
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 4: difficult by U wave coefficients.

858
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 1: Rangers.

859
00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 4: I spoke about this when they were playing Dorman in

860
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 4: the second leg. They're just not the type of team

861
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,440
Speaker 4: that's going to sit back and defend for ninety minutes

862
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 4: to see out a tie. You saw it against Doormann.

863
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 4: They sat back a little bit. They were ready to

864
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:17,759
Speaker 4: just pounce on the counter every single time they got

865
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 4: and that's why you saw eight point two expected was

866
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 4: created in two matches against Dortmann. So I have three

867
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,919
Speaker 4: point four goals projected for this match. So at over

868
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:28,320
Speaker 4: two and half goals and minus won twenty five, I

869
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 4: think there's tremendous value there, Anthony.

870
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 3: Youre OPA League, Yeah, Rae Bettis fade went well last week.

871
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 3: This time I'm going to the under three goals at

872
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 3: minus one p twenty. Frankfurt overforming offensively quite a bit

873
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:44,800
Speaker 3: now in Germany. They had a good win today against Bochum,

874
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 3: but overall they were a little bit fortunate to win

875
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 3: that match. In the overall, when you look at the

876
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 3: expected goals in that match, and bett Is again just

877
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 3: keep fading them because I really think this team is

878
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 3: playing way over the heads, way over their talent level,

879
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 3: and I'm just not liking much what I see from them.

880
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 3: They did have a one to zero win at home

881
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 3: against Bill Bao, but again expect the goals were pretty

882
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 3: comparable and they really weren't any better than Bill that

883
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:16,799
Speaker 3: was over those ninety minutes. So they're on the fade list.

884
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:18,879
Speaker 3: They are atop the faid list, and I'm gonna play

885
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 3: against both attacks here because I think Frankfurt may be

886
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 3: a little more conservative and try to see out this

887
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 3: victory at home. Leon is going to be on bettest

888
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:28,520
Speaker 3: to go, you know, try to get back into this,

889
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 3: and I don't really think this attack is good enough

890
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:33,400
Speaker 3: to do that, so I'm playing the under three. And

891
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 3: then Bja mentioned it. We're both in agreement on this one.

892
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 3: Leon and Porto Leone deserved their win on the road.

893
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:41,359
Speaker 3: Really they were the better side. Shots were pretty even,

894
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:44,400
Speaker 3: possession was pretty even, but they created the higher quality chances.

895
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 3: But it's the own team. They've added some pieces in

896
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,720
Speaker 3: the midfield. I like one specific one is tanky and dumble,

897
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 3: but overall in France this year just has not been

898
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 3: at the level that we typically see from them. They're

899
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 3: going at home here, they don't even need the win,

900
00:41:57,640 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 3: which I think has to factor in to your handicap

901
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 3: here if they're tied late again, this is the spot

902
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 3: I like in these aggregate matches, Porto will be the

903
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 3: one pushing for the goal, not necessarily leone. So that's

904
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 3: kind of baked into the fact that if it's tied,

905
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 3: Porto will be ahead and be pushing for the goal.

906
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:16,319
Speaker 3: There'll be the more aggressive side. So with that little

907
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 3: draw protection baked in, I like Porto plus a half

908
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 3: at plus one oh five.

909
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:23,480
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to our favorite bets for

910
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 2: the Champions League, the last slate of fixtures before we

911
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 2: get to the quarterfinals. Moving along here briskly, BJ will

912
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 2: start with you.

913
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, Atletico Madrid plus half a goal at minus one thirty.

914
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 4: Athletico is super unlucky in that first leg to draw

915
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 4: with Manchester United. They beat them unexpected goals one point

916
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 4: three too point four, They outtouched them in the penalty

917
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 4: area twenty one to nine, and Athletico even hit the

918
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 4: cross hit the.

919
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:48,320
Speaker 1: Would work twice.

920
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:51,319
Speaker 4: So going to old Trafford playing in Manchester United team

921
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 4: that hasn't really changed that much from Olga and solshar

922
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:56,840
Speaker 4: to Ralph raignant when they have to play elite competition

923
00:42:57,360 --> 00:43:00,400
Speaker 4: against Manchester City and the first leg against Lettico and

924
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 4: then against the Tottenham on Sunday. Those three games combined,

925
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 4: they've created one point nine expected goals but have scored

926
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 4: for So I do for a little bit of negative

927
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 4: regression and also United the troubles areas for them defensively.

928
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:14,919
Speaker 4: They had troublesome, you know, troubles defensively all season long.

929
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 4: But the one area specifically over the last week or

930
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 4: a couple weeks or so is defending crosses. Against Athletico

931
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 4: in the first leg they allowed them to complete three

932
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 4: crosses in the penald aera Gyle Felix scored one. Against

933
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 4: Manchester City they completed four crosses in the penald area

934
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 4: scored twice, and against Tottam this past weekend Tottenham completed

935
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:35,280
Speaker 4: one cross and it was non goal by Harry maguire.

936
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 4: So having a defended Athletico team that plays in a

937
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:40,240
Speaker 4: four to four to two with a lot of their

938
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 4: offensive production coming down the wing, swinging and crosses, it's

939
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:46,400
Speaker 4: very troublesome for United. And also United just is not

940
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 4: the pressing team that we thought they were going to

941
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 4: be under Ralph Fragnant. Even though they were able to

942
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,680
Speaker 4: hold over sixty percent possession in the first leg, they

943
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 4: really meant nothing. So I have this match projected pretty

944
00:43:56,160 --> 00:43:58,360
Speaker 4: close to Pickham. Actually have a Athletico projected as a

945
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:00,919
Speaker 4: slight favorite. So I loved and plus half a goal

946
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 4: at minus one thirty at Old Trafford.

947
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on the same side as you. For my

948
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 2: favorite bet, I like at Letty plus one forty to advance.

949
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:12,319
Speaker 2: I think you can take them across the board three

950
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:14,719
Speaker 2: way money line to advance, and I also like them

951
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:17,280
Speaker 2: as a live bet if they go down. We spoke

952
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 2: about it earlier in the show. Manchester United is a

953
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 2: team that if they go up a goal, the game

954
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:25,959
Speaker 2: is still live. On the other hand, Athletico Madrid are

955
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 2: experts at shutting games down, so if they go up

956
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:31,319
Speaker 2: a goal, I don't really like United's chances to claw

957
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 2: their way back in what should be a absolute rock

958
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 2: fight against Diego Simeoni side United. They've really struggled against

959
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:42,760
Speaker 2: good teams minus three point four expected goal differential against Letty,

960
00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:47,760
Speaker 2: Spurs and City. Meanwhile, Simeoni side Man, they're looking vintage

961
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 2: four point seven expected goals allowed in their last six matches.

962
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:52,839
Speaker 2: So I think you're getting a really good number here

963
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:55,520
Speaker 2: on a team that I don't think there's really all

964
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:58,720
Speaker 2: that much separating these two sides, as even with United

965
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 2: playing at Old Trafford. So I'll take the underdogs here

966
00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:05,840
Speaker 2: Atletico Madrid plus one forty two advance to the quarterfinals. Anthony,

967
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 2: what about you?

968
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:09,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going Viil plus a half at minus one

969
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 3: ten against Juventus, Viil was the better team for eighty

970
00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 3: nine minutes and thirty seconds of the first leg. My

971
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:19,399
Speaker 3: opinion of either team didn't really change much from that leg.

972
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 3: I had vial Jona bett in the first leg. I

973
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 3: will be betting them again in this second leg. Since

974
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 3: that game, Juventus has had four performances, three of them

975
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 3: against the three the seven worst teams in Sirias, sam Doria, Spetsia, Empli.

976
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:37,319
Speaker 3: They struggled defensively in all those matches, conceded over one

977
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:40,399
Speaker 3: expected goal and their expected goal difference across those three

978
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:42,919
Speaker 3: matches was pretty mediocre. They also struggled in the Cup

979
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 3: against Fiorentina. This attack is not what it should be

980
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 3: given the acquisition of Duzon Blohovik. He had a great

981
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:51,720
Speaker 3: goal in the first leg but only managed two shots,

982
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:54,839
Speaker 3: and he's just not quite getting the production that you'd

983
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:57,240
Speaker 3: expect them to get in this attack. They're not really

984
00:45:57,480 --> 00:46:01,120
Speaker 3: you know, beating teams the way you'd expect, and Virial

985
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 3: continues to be an absolute truck. They have the best

986
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:07,759
Speaker 3: expected goal difference numbers in Spain since December, and over

987
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 3: the course of the season they've been better in Spain

988
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 3: than Juventus has been in Italy. So I'm rolling with

989
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 3: the Yellow Submarine to get this at least an extra

990
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:17,399
Speaker 3: time and maybe even win it.

991
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 2: And that should do it for another episode of Wonder Goal.

992
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:23,360
Speaker 2: We will be back with you guys on Thursday morning.

993
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 2: Until then, best of luck with your champions so you

994
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:27,240
Speaker 2: can Premier League bet