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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Friday edition of Bloomberg's Balance of Power.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington with another good round of
Speaker 2: headlines on the economy today.
Speaker 3: Just look at the terminal.
Speaker 2: This is the kind of stuff the White House was
Speaker 2: hoping for and in many cases planning for over the
Speaker 2: past months. FET's preferred Corp price gauge, Yeah PCE cools
Speaker 2: amid robust spending, recalling yesterday's GDP report that was off
Speaker 2: the charts spot phone numbers here. We talked about it
Speaker 2: with Gene Spurling on Balance of Power last evening. We
Speaker 2: talk about it now with Heather Bouchet, who has the
Speaker 2: ear of the President of course on all things economic,
Speaker 2: joining us from a son North lawn. It's like seventy
Speaker 2: degrees outside today in Washington, which is quite remarkable. Member
Speaker 2: of the Council of Economic Advisors, Heather, it's good to
Speaker 2: see you. Thank you so much for joining when you
Speaker 2: start to put the data together here. I don't know
Speaker 2: how you're feeling right now, but have we softly landed well?
Speaker 4: I like to think of this economy as the little
Speaker 4: engine that could. It is just chugging along.
Speaker 1: It is.
Speaker 4: You can see the strength in the reports from today
Speaker 4: and yesterday. Of course, we saw that growth was three
Speaker 4: point one percent last year. And you know, over a
Speaker 4: year ago, forecasters were predicting that twenty twenty three would
Speaker 4: be a recession, that we would see growth the negative
Speaker 4: zero point one percent, and that's not what happened. We
Speaker 4: have seen this strength in the US economy and alongside
Speaker 4: the ongoing strength and the labor market and so and
Speaker 4: of course all of this paired with the softening of prices,
Speaker 4: so that price increases are not going as fast. So
Speaker 4: we have a new low below three percent in the
Speaker 4: annual rate of the core piece. But again, when you
Speaker 4: look over the last six months, both headline and core
Speaker 4: PCE are hovering at about two percent. So this is
Speaker 4: really good news. We're seeing this growth, we're seeing this investment.
Speaker 4: It's delivering for the American people in a way that
Speaker 4: is strong, shared and across the country. And we're also
Speaker 4: seeing that inflation has been cooling.
Speaker 2: Where are we going to be six months from now, Heather?
Speaker 2: Is it possible to answer that question? Based on the
Speaker 2: trajectory that we are on. Many forecasts would suggest that
Speaker 2: you might in fact be at that two percent target
Speaker 2: that the soft landing will essentially be confirmed.
Speaker 3: How does your crystal ball look?
Speaker 5: Well?
Speaker 4: I do not have a crystal ball, but here's what
Speaker 4: I can tell you. When you put all the pieces
Speaker 4: together of what we're seeing, and you pair that with
Speaker 4: the investments that the President is making all across the country,
Speaker 4: game changing investments and infrastructure, in advancing new technology geez,
Speaker 4: in advancing clean energy, what you see in as an
Speaker 4: economy that is delivering now having recovered from the pandemic,
Speaker 4: but one where we're making those game changing investments that
Speaker 4: are going to drive productivity, growth and jobs for years
Speaker 4: to come. And so given just how strong these reports are,
Speaker 4: this all looks very good. One statistic that really jumped
Speaker 4: out to us as we were looking at the data
Speaker 4: is that the new investment in the construction of private
Speaker 4: manufacturing facilities something that we've been watching closely because those
Speaker 4: are the kinds of investments that we're trying the President
Speaker 4: is trying to induce through is investing in American agenda.
Speaker 4: You are seeing that the contribution of that to growth
Speaker 4: is higher than it's been going back to nineteen fifty nine,
Speaker 4: so that that investment continues to fan out across the country.
Speaker 4: And of course that's leading to an upticking construction jobs now,
Speaker 4: but that'll lead to a shift in other kinds of
Speaker 4: jobs in years to come.
Speaker 2: I know part of your job is to bring calm
Speaker 2: and balance to the conversation, Heather Bouchet, and you're awfully
Speaker 2: good at that. But as I look at this stock market,
Speaker 2: as I consider the data here, you're not a member
Speaker 2: of the political apparatus at the White House, But is
Speaker 2: it not time to start jumping up and down a
Speaker 2: little bit more to get this message across to the
Speaker 2: American people.
Speaker 4: Well, we hear at the White House are working hard
Speaker 4: every day to communicate the strength of this economy, how
Speaker 4: the President has been building an economy from the middle out.
Speaker 4: So you know, so many of my colleagues, myself traveling
Speaker 4: the country talking to folks like you. You know, this
Speaker 4: has been a tough, a tough road, right. The President
Speaker 4: came into office in the middle of a pandemic recession,
Speaker 4: and then of course we had Putin's unprovoked war in
Speaker 4: the Ukraine that up ended global energy prices, and there
Speaker 4: was a lot of uncertainty how fast could we recover,
Speaker 4: you know, would supply chains renormalize, would we see you know,
Speaker 4: the up ending of energy prices last for a long time.
Speaker 4: And now we really see over the past year that
Speaker 4: all of those things have come back together, they've gotten
Speaker 4: under control, and the strength of the economy, the underlying
Speaker 4: strength is really starting to shine.
Speaker 2: We're talking with Heather Bouchet live from the White House
Speaker 2: on Balance of Power Today. Important news from the administration, Heather,
Speaker 2: is the President halting the approval of new licenses to
Speaker 2: export LNG, the liquefied natural gas. While it scrutinizes the
Speaker 2: impact that this would have these shipments would have on
Speaker 2: climate change. What level of concern do you have here
Speaker 2: to potentially disrupt already fragile energy markets in Europe.
Speaker 4: Well, this is a very important issue, you know. Let
Speaker 4: me start by noting that the President from day one
Speaker 4: has had a whole of government approach to addressing climate change,
Speaker 4: and core to that has been making the investments we
Speaker 4: need to make to put the United States on the
Speaker 4: leading edge of investing in clean energy technologies and the
Speaker 4: capacity to produce those here in the United States and
Speaker 4: to shore up that global process there. Now, what we
Speaker 4: see in these exports is that right now the United
Speaker 4: States is the world number one exporter of LNG, and
Speaker 4: we know that over the next decade that's actually predicted
Speaker 4: to double. And we've been working very closely and feel
Speaker 4: confident that we have enough to be able to assure
Speaker 4: our allies that we'll be able to continue to play
Speaker 4: this really important role. But at the same time, we
Speaker 4: need to make sure that we, like other countries, are
Speaker 4: doing what we can do to address the climate change challenges.
Speaker 4: You started this segment by noting that, you know, it's
Speaker 4: over seventy degrees here in DC in the middle of January,
Speaker 4: you know, and we are all sort of struggling with
Speaker 4: the increasing physical damages of climate change and the need
Speaker 4: to make these investments as the President is doing in
Speaker 4: spurring those clean energy investments.
Speaker 2: Okay, are you able to tell our allies how long
Speaker 2: this pause might last?
Speaker 4: I am not able to say that now.
Speaker 2: Weeks, not months. There's no sense of how long a
Speaker 2: review like that would take. And I'm not trying to
Speaker 2: push this too Farheather. I don't know if there's a
Speaker 2: presumption of how long something like that might need to take.
Speaker 4: This is being carefully considered and conversations are ongoing.
Speaker 2: I have to ask you as well about what's been
Speaker 2: happening in the Red Sea. This is of course a
Speaker 2: major issue for the administration, and we've certainly seen the
Speaker 2: Pentagon get involved here in trying to secure shipments through
Speaker 2: the Red Sea following a series of attacks from Houthi
Speaker 2: rebels in Yemen. At what point do you grow concerned
Speaker 2: about the impact on supply chain and prices.
Speaker 4: Well, this is something we have been tracking since the beginning.
Speaker 4: We've also been of course looking at you know, how
Speaker 4: El Nino and droughts have been affecting the Panama Canal.
Speaker 4: So we of course in this administration have been very
Speaker 4: concerned about supply chains and global shipping as we have
Speaker 4: looked at this, given what shippers have been doing being
Speaker 4: able to move their transportation to other ways of getting
Speaker 4: around the world. That does take a little bit more
Speaker 4: time and it does cost a little bit more. But
Speaker 4: our assessment is is that when it comes to the
Speaker 4: US consumer, we do not expect to see a large
Speaker 4: price shock. And I also just want to note that
Speaker 4: we don't expect to see anything like what we saw
Speaker 4: during the pandemic with those global supply chain challenges. That's
Speaker 4: not to underestimate this, but at this point it looks
Speaker 4: like the effects for the consumer will be will be limited. Well,
Speaker 4: that's will continue to monitor They will continue to monitor it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, sure, and I realized this is a fluid situation, Heather.
Speaker 2: What does the CEA look at? How does the council
Speaker 2: deal with something like this in your tracking?
Speaker 3: What indicators are you watching?
Speaker 4: Well, we're looking at the geopolitical situation. We're looking at
Speaker 4: you know what, what kinds of goods are transported around
Speaker 4: the world and where they get to the American consumer,
Speaker 4: and what it would mean to take longer routes and
Speaker 4: you know what the estimated impact would be of those
Speaker 4: costs of doing so, and how long and how how
Speaker 4: much additional time that would take to get goods to
Speaker 4: the consumer.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, with energy prices in mind, I'll ask you
Speaker 2: lastly if that's the wild card for you right now.
Speaker 2: We've seen crude oil pop up a bit over the
Speaker 2: past couple of weeks based on what we're watching in
Speaker 2: the Middle East, and no real disruption here, it seems
Speaker 2: in terms of supply shock, but everyone's kind of on
Speaker 2: edge waiting for something to happen.
Speaker 3: Is that your wild cards? Is that what keeps you
Speaker 3: up at night? Right now?
Speaker 4: There are so many wild cards that keep me up
Speaker 4: at night because it is literally my job to worry
Speaker 4: about these things for the President with my colleagues. Yeah,
Speaker 4: so certainly this is something that we are always watching closely.
Speaker 4: I mean, let me just note that this is one
Speaker 4: of the core reasons that I think that the President's
Speaker 4: investments in clean energy are so economically important. Once we
Speaker 4: can make those investments, we will be able to extricate
Speaker 4: ourselves from this very volatile global energy prices and provide
Speaker 4: consumers with more stable access with more stable prices. For now,
Speaker 4: we continue to monitor the situation closely.
Speaker 2: Speaking from her perch on the Council of Economic Advisors
Speaker 2: at the White House, Heather Bouchet, it's good to have
Speaker 2: you back on Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: We appreciate the time.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Kens
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Speaker 2: Joe.
Speaker 6: I'm sure you saw earlier today the dear colleague letter
Speaker 6: from the Speaker of the House, My deal with dear
Speaker 6: colleague Mike Johnson. Never good news, dear colleague. Comma goes
Speaker 6: on to say, if rumors of the draft proposal are true,
Speaker 6: and this is alluding to the deal that sent and
Speaker 6: negotiators are working on with the White House to try
Speaker 6: to secure an agreement that ties Ukraine funding to border security,
Speaker 6: it would have been dead on arrival in the House anyway.
Speaker 6: That's exhibit. If the rumors are true, it would be
Speaker 6: dead on arrival in the House. So how do you
Speaker 6: get Ukraine funding through the House when so many members
Speaker 6: don't seem to want it. If you're not going to
Speaker 6: do it in a border deal, it's a problem. It
Speaker 6: is especially perhaps for Ukraine as it is continuing to
Speaker 6: fight a war against Russia.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the great fear of the administration. By
Speaker 2: the way, we're right about the time they're supposed to
Speaker 2: be running out of money, correct, wasn't that supposed to
Speaker 2: be January into February with the last cash from America.
Speaker 6: Yes, with the two year anniversary of the war quickly
Speaker 6: approaching next month. So let's turned out to Nick Wadams,
Speaker 6: who covers US National Security for US here at Bloomberg
Speaker 6: and of course has been laser focused over the last
Speaker 6: two years of this conflict on what's happening between Ukraine
Speaker 6: and Russia. Nick, do we actually have an understanding of
Speaker 6: what the US is able to provide if this is
Speaker 6: supplemental funding doesn't come through, or is it cold Turkey
Speaker 6: cut off?
Speaker 7: Well, I mean the big that's the question whether an
Speaker 7: agency like the Pentagon that gets, you know, eight hundred
Speaker 7: and fifty billion dollars a year can find a little
Speaker 7: loose change between the couch cushions. But right now they
Speaker 7: are saying unequivocally no. I mean, we had a Ukraine
Speaker 7: Defense Contact Group meeting a few days ago where Secretary
Speaker 7: Austin was there with about fifty other defense ministers from
Speaker 7: around the world, and he urged other countries to quote
Speaker 7: unquote dig deep to help Ukraine. But this was basically
Speaker 7: the first and I think it was the eighteenth of
Speaker 7: the nineteenth meeting of this group, or the US had
Speaker 7: nothing to offer. I mean, they are absolutely frozen in
Speaker 7: place right now, and there is really no prospect for
Speaker 7: that to come unbudged anytime soon absent action from Congress.
Speaker 2: What do our European allies think of this idea, because
Speaker 2: we've clearly been leading the charge on us.
Speaker 7: Well, I mean you've had the UK come around with
Speaker 7: what it says is, you know, it's trying to help
Speaker 7: more so adding I think another two point five billion
Speaker 7: dollars to the fight. But I mean when you're looking
Speaker 7: what Jobe and is asking for, I mean sixty sixty
Speaker 7: billion dollars for this year. I mean it's just the
Speaker 7: magnitude is just completely different. So you know, what we're
Speaker 7: starting to see, interestingly, is a focus in Ukraine to
Speaker 7: shifting much more to defense. So there's really no expectation
Speaker 7: right now that Ukraine would be able to have the
Speaker 7: capacity to take back any more of the land that
Speaker 7: Russia seesed during the invasion. And the result is that,
Speaker 7: really I think what they're really trying to do is
Speaker 7: hunker down and just try to withstand the Russian assault.
Speaker 6: So then it becomes a QUESTIONNK of even if this
Speaker 6: aid comes through, whether or not Ukraine can actually win
Speaker 6: this war, and perhaps the way they'd want to in
Speaker 6: recuperating all of that land, getting it out once again
Speaker 6: of Russia's hands. So what's the endgame? Is the endgame
Speaker 6: changing the longer this goes on, You know.
Speaker 7: That is very much a live debate within the administration
Speaker 7: because there is a broad recognition I think within the
Speaker 7: administration that Mark Milly, the former Airman and the Joint Chiefs,
Speaker 7: was right when he said last year, listen, we are
Speaker 7: headed towards salemate. Russia. It's unlikely they're going to be
Speaker 7: able to take a lot more land, but it's very
Speaker 7: unlikely that Ukraine is going to be able to pry
Speaker 7: them lose from that land. That was even when the
Speaker 7: US was contributing a ton of money. I think what
Speaker 7: you're seeing as a broad recognition that this thing, yes,
Speaker 7: we are not going to see a significant change in
Speaker 7: the lines in twenty twenty four. Who knows what twenty
Speaker 7: twenty five will bring, but there needs to be at
Speaker 7: least some sort of discussion about what an endgame looks like.
Speaker 7: So far, it's really not much more further along in
Speaker 7: terms of their thinking than that.
Speaker 2: Lastlynk, your team is up with the story that Vladimir
Speaker 2: Putin is sending signals that he might be ready to
Speaker 2: sit down and have peace talks. Is that emboldened by
Speaker 2: the idea of money running out? Does that strengthen his hand?
Speaker 7: I think there are a few things going on there.
Speaker 7: So it's very unclear why Putin would be sending these signals.
Speaker 7: We know he is sending the signals that hey, I'm
Speaker 7: ready to play ball here, but there are a lot
Speaker 7: of reasons that could be. One is he may want
Speaker 7: and out. Another is he's looking to take advantage or
Speaker 7: perhaps insert himself in the conversations in Congress, because you
Speaker 7: could have some people say, hey, look, Vladimir Putin wants
Speaker 7: a way out, we don't need to send Ukraine more money.
Speaker 7: The other issue is Putin himself has an election coming up.
Speaker 7: He needs to shore up a popularity within Russia, and
Speaker 7: the idea that he's looking for peace, looking for an
Speaker 7: end of this conflict plays very well. So to be honest,
Speaker 7: one of the least likely ideas is that he's actually
Speaker 7: willing to make any major concessions. I don't think you're
Speaker 7: going to see that anytime soon.
Speaker 3: Thanks for being here.
Speaker 2: As always, Nick Bottoms, he's one of the best here.
Speaker 2: His whole team is. Our national security team has had
Speaker 2: quite a time covering this, Kayley, and great information that
Speaker 2: you can find on the terminal and at Bloomberg dot com.
Speaker 3: As we had the voice of Melinda Herring. We very
Speaker 3: specifically called Melinda.
Speaker 2: To talk today about this because she actually has a
Speaker 2: very good sense of what this means. Of course, with
Speaker 2: the Atlantic Council's spent more time in Kiev than just
Speaker 2: about anyone you're going to hear from on this program
Speaker 2: since the start of the war.
Speaker 3: Melinda, it's great to see you.
Speaker 2: What is the White House telling Republican leadership behind closed
Speaker 2: doors in these briefings with Jake Sullivan about what will
Speaker 2: happen to Ukraine when the money runs out. Let's let's
Speaker 2: look out, say three to six months. What would be
Speaker 2: the chain reaction that followed the end of the money trail?
Speaker 8: Hey, Joe, thanks for having me back. So the White
Speaker 8: House is telling Republicans get real that the situation in
Speaker 8: Ukraine is not just going to stay in Ukraine, that
Speaker 8: it has real security implications for Europe and for the
Speaker 8: United States. And they are showing classified information, and they're
Speaker 8: talking about what happens if the sixty one billion dollars
Speaker 8: does not go through. So make no mistake about it,
Speaker 8: there is no short term alternative. If this money doesn't
Speaker 8: come through, it's going to make it even more difficult
Speaker 8: on the front lines. We already soldiers are rationing shells.
Speaker 8: There's not enough one hundred and fifty five millimeters shells.
Speaker 8: Europe is not going to meet the one million shells
Speaker 8: that they promised this year, while the North Koreans have
Speaker 8: already delivered those to Moscow. So it's really a dire situation.
Speaker 8: We also see Ukrainian commanders saying we can't do the
Speaker 8: kinds of operations we want because we don't have the
Speaker 8: kit that we need now. And this is only a
Speaker 8: couple months after the US has run out of funds.
Speaker 6: So if we could just elaborate on that europe point, Melinda,
Speaker 6: because obviously the US is not the only ally that's
Speaker 6: in the game here that has been providing the support.
Speaker 6: Europe has as well. I think even a greater chunk
Speaker 6: of their share of GDP has been spent relative to
Speaker 6: the US. Are they too starting to pull back?
Speaker 8: No, Actually, the opposite is happening. So the Europeans are
Speaker 8: starting to wake up. Schultz in Germany has said it's
Speaker 8: time to start doing more, but it's not clear how
Speaker 8: far they're going to go. So Schultz has a conference
Speaker 8: the first week of February. He's bringing everyone together in
Speaker 8: Europe and he's saying, this situation is serious. We have
Speaker 8: to get real, and he's going to point fingers, and
Speaker 8: he's likely going to point fingers at France, Italy and
Speaker 8: Spain who have not done enough. When you look at
Speaker 8: the figures, but just to zoom back out for a minute,
Speaker 8: there's different categories of aid, and the US is the
Speaker 8: biggest donor of military aid. Europe has done a lot,
Speaker 8: but they've been more active on the humanitarian and economic
Speaker 8: assistance front. That's why this is such a big deal.
Speaker 2: So how did the dominoes fall here? If American money
Speaker 2: comes to an end, Melinda, Is this, as Nick mentioned,
Speaker 2: mark Milly's vision of a stalemate, a war of attrition
Speaker 2: that essentially grinds Ukraine down to nothing. Or is Vladimir
Speaker 2: Putin emboldened to the extent that a NATO country could
Speaker 2: be involved Poland or one of Poland's neighbors, and we
Speaker 2: have a major problem that entangles the US.
Speaker 5: Joe.
Speaker 8: I'm going to quote my friend General Philip Breeblove, who
Speaker 8: ran NATO, and he just gave a wonderful briefing, and
Speaker 8: he said everything depends on us and on the choices
Speaker 8: that our leaders make. Now, there's different scenarios that we
Speaker 8: could run through, but if Ukraine does not get the
Speaker 8: weapons it needs to defend itself, it will lose. Eventually.
Speaker 8: Ukrainians are not going to give up even if the
Speaker 8: sixty one billion dollars does not come, but more Ukrainians
Speaker 8: are going to die. They when I go to Kiev
Speaker 8: and talk to them about these sort of dire scenarios,
Speaker 8: they tell me we will fight with forks, we will
Speaker 8: fight with AK forty seven's. We've lost too much. We
Speaker 8: know what Russian we know what Russian occupation is, and
Speaker 8: we're not going to live that way. So it's going
Speaker 8: to get much messier and more people are going to die.
Speaker 8: I think the concern though, is that if Putin is
Speaker 8: able to take a big chunk of Ukraine, you know,
Speaker 8: through attrition and through our bad policy choices, and again
Speaker 8: we are if we do not provide this assistance. Ukraine
Speaker 8: is going to lose, and it is going to be
Speaker 8: our fault and it is going to threaten Western security
Speaker 8: for the next fifty years. Could NATO get drawn in? Absolutely?
Speaker 8: Putin's plan is to reconstitute his forces and he may
Speaker 8: go after a NATO member next. Does that automatically pull
Speaker 8: the US in? It does not automatically pull it in.
Speaker 8: But under the Article five guarantee, if a NATO member
Speaker 8: were hit, they would have to have a discussion and
Speaker 8: they would likely defend that territory, so it would involve
Speaker 8: the United States.
Speaker 6: So then let's talk about Russia's capacity specifically, as you
Speaker 6: talk about how Ukraine's capacity, their munitions are waning, They're
Speaker 6: obviously losing a great deal of Ukrainian soldiers. What about Russia?
Speaker 6: Do they really have the resources to continue the fight
Speaker 6: this long?
Speaker 8: So far they do so. They just got a million
Speaker 8: shells from North Korea and they are getting more rockets
Speaker 8: and drones from Iran as well. The Russian side has
Speaker 8: good talented financial managers and they have been able to
Speaker 8: make things to keep the economy afloat and to keep
Speaker 8: things going in spite of losing a lot of very
Speaker 8: talented folks. So you know, it's a question of how
Speaker 8: long can they hold out? But that's actually the wrong question.
Speaker 8: I think in Putin's mind, he's wondering if he thinks
Speaker 8: he can hold out longer than the West can, And
Speaker 8: that's sort of We're in a pivotal point right now
Speaker 8: with the US election.
Speaker 2: What happens to our reputation internationally, our allies or beyond Melinda,
Speaker 2: if this goes down the way it appears, it might,
Speaker 2: no border deal, no money for Ukraine, and they're left alone.
Speaker 8: Joe, that's the money question. I think it means that
Speaker 8: America is not much of a superpower anymore, that we
Speaker 8: don't keep our promises. I mean, even in the language
Speaker 8: of Joe Biden, we've seen him change from we will
Speaker 8: be there as long as it takes to will be
Speaker 8: there as long as we can, and that is not
Speaker 8: a mistake in rhetoric. You know, the sands are changing
Speaker 8: politically right now, but that's not where the American people are.
Speaker 8: If you look at where the American people are, they
Speaker 8: overwhelmingly support Ukraine and they don't like bullies. They view
Speaker 8: Vladimir Putin as a bully. So I think it's time
Speaker 8: for Americans to pick up their phones and call their
Speaker 8: congressmen and call the White House and demand that we
Speaker 8: keep standing with the people of Ukraine until they are
Speaker 8: able to push the Russians back.
Speaker 6: Well, as we talk about Vladimir Putin, and we were
Speaker 6: just discussing this with our own Nick Waddams, this idea
Speaker 6: that he's starting to signal that perhaps he would be
Speaker 6: open to conversations about how to bring this to an end.
Speaker 6: Can he be viewed as a trustworthy actor in any conversation.
Speaker 8: No, he cannot. And honestly, we've seen this movie many
Speaker 8: times before. So if you look at Putin's narratives, these
Speaker 8: two for the Study of War has looked at when
Speaker 8: does Vladimir Putin talk negotiations And the answer to this
Speaker 8: is he talks about negotiations when the West has to
Speaker 8: make a hard decision about weapons, or when the West
Speaker 8: has to make a hard decision. He's trying to distract us.
Speaker 8: He is not interested in negotiations whatsoever. Look at Dmitri
Speaker 8: Midvittev's rhetoric two days ago, he says that he's going
Speaker 8: to use nuclear weapons. He's talked about over and over
Speaker 8: again about how Ukrainians are not real people. They reject
Speaker 8: Ukrainian territorial claims. The Russians are not serious about negotiations,
Speaker 8: and they're trying to keep the United States from passing
Speaker 8: this assistants bill. That's all it is.
Speaker 2: I'm out of time here, Melinda, and really I hate
Speaker 2: having to cut anyone off.
Speaker 3: I just have to mention quickly.
Speaker 2: Russia now accusing Ukraine of shooting down a large military plane,
Speaker 2: a cargo style plane that was carrying sixty five Ukrainian
Speaker 2: prisoners for an exchange.
Speaker 3: You don't believe this report. Why would Ukraine do something like.
Speaker 8: That, Joe. I think we're still waiting for the investigation.
Speaker 8: I don't think we know enough, and I'm not willing
Speaker 8: to put my faith on the Russian side of the story.
Speaker 8: So on that one, I would ask your viewers, let's
Speaker 8: wait and see until the investigation comes out.
Speaker 3: Well.
Speaker 2: Your restraint is always well received here, Melinda Herring from
Speaker 2: the Atlantic Council, We thank you, as always for the insights.
Speaker 2: It was an IL seventy six aircraft, like a big
Speaker 2: cargo plane that went down, Kayley. A terrible story emerging
Speaker 2: here from Russia. More straight ahead, this is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 6: We're only two states in to the Republican primary.
Speaker 3: You notice that just too A lot of people think
Speaker 3: it's over.
Speaker 6: Forty eight states still have not voted on anything or anyone,
Speaker 6: and yet apparently the R and C was considering adopting
Speaker 6: a resolution to declare Donald Trump the party's presumptive nominee
Speaker 6: after two states Iowa and New Hampshire, which.
Speaker 2: I guess shouldn't be a shock after Ronald McDaniel went
Speaker 2: on TV to urge Nikki Haley to drop out of
Speaker 2: the race the day after New Hampshire, saying that she
Speaker 2: didn't see a map a path for her on the map.
Speaker 2: And you've got Mitch McConnell calling him the nominee behind
Speaker 2: closed doors on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 3: What's going on around here?
Speaker 6: Well, Donald Trump actually has an opinion about it. He
Speaker 6: posted on True Social last night. I feel for the
Speaker 6: sake of party unity that they should not go forward
Speaker 6: with this plan, but that I should do it the
Speaker 6: old fashion way and finish the process off at the
Speaker 6: ballot box.
Speaker 2: Well, if anyone likes to do it the old fashioned way,
Speaker 2: it's Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: He earned it.
Speaker 3: Well, sorry, that was an old commercial. Should we bring
Speaker 3: in the PA, Yes?
Speaker 2: We shul Rick Davis and Genie Shanzo joined Bloomberg Politics contributors.
Speaker 3: You know what I'm talking about, right, Jeannie, the old
Speaker 3: fashioned way.
Speaker 2: Are you surprised Donald Trump doesn't want to just shut
Speaker 2: it down?
Speaker 8: Now?
Speaker 3: Who's talking to him?
Speaker 5: Yeah? I mean it's so fascinating because yes, I do
Speaker 5: remember that commercial, by the way, Joe Matthew. But it
Speaker 5: is so fascinating because you're looking at this thing and
Speaker 5: you're saying, this guy one to Kaylee's point, two hundred
Speaker 5: and thirty thousand votes in two very small, non representative states.
Speaker 5: We have until late July for the convention to start,
Speaker 5: and you have Roni McDaniel and the RNC pushing to
Speaker 5: declare hid In the winner, and him swooping back in
Speaker 5: on truth social and saying, hey, guys, I will do
Speaker 5: it the old fashioned way, as you say. You know,
Speaker 5: the odd thing is, I'm struggling to figure out how
Speaker 5: the party could benefit from this save a few million dollars,
Speaker 5: I don't know, but strategically it doesn't make sense. And
Speaker 5: of course this is sort of I think party members
Speaker 5: trying to bow to the feed of Donald Trump and
Speaker 5: saying you are the presumptive nominee. Forget about the delegates
Speaker 5: at twelve fifteen or whatever it is you need to win,
Speaker 5: We will just make you the presumptive nominee right now.
Speaker 6: But Rick, isn't he the presumptive nominee? I mean, it's
Speaker 6: one thing to officially declare it in this in this
Speaker 6: very lower sense for the RNC, But this was the
Speaker 6: conversation we were all having on Tuesday night after New
Speaker 6: Hampshire he won. Nikki Hailey lost by eleven points. Very
Speaker 6: difficult to see her path forward, how she has any
Speaker 6: credible path to the nomination, And doesn't that get us
Speaker 6: too presumptive?
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean presumptive is actually a technical term.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 9: It means that you've assembled the twelve hundred and fifteen
Speaker 9: votes that you need to win a convention. And so
Speaker 9: there's there are those like me who think until you've
Speaker 9: crossed that threshold, you can't be called a presumptive nominee.
Speaker 9: You can be called the guy who's gonna win. You
Speaker 9: can be called the guy who's crushed the opposition. You
Speaker 9: can be called a lot of things, but you can't
Speaker 9: be called presumptive nominee. And there are some technical reasons too,
Speaker 9: when you start looking at sort of joint fundraising committees
Speaker 9: with the RNC. There are things you can do before
Speaker 9: you're the presumptive nominee, and there are things that get
Speaker 9: charged against your cap once you're the presumptive nominee for
Speaker 9: the general election. So there, my guess is the Trump campaign,
Speaker 9: which is being run very professionally, looked at these things
Speaker 9: and said, why in the world do we need that
Speaker 9: moniker that'll just put pressure on our fundraising operation. And
Speaker 9: then there's the practical political reason. The last thing you
Speaker 9: want to tell voters three weeks before a primary in
Speaker 9: South Carolina.
Speaker 3: Is guys, I got this.
Speaker 9: It's over. Don't worry about turning out. I'm the presumptive nominee.
Speaker 9: So there's a reason why the guys down in mar
Speaker 9: A Lago are going no, no, no, no, no, We're
Speaker 9: not there yet. So until Nicky Haley is dispatched, nobody
Speaker 9: wants to call him that.
Speaker 3: That's pretty Genie.
Speaker 2: You know, it is possible, as we discussed earlier on
Speaker 2: the broadcast, that he gets that number, he gets more
Speaker 2: than halfway to twelve fifteen around Super Tuesday. But if
Speaker 2: we're already calling for restraint here, why was he calling
Speaker 2: on Nicky Haley to drop out of the race the
Speaker 2: other night? He was essentially calling himself the nominee, wasn't he?
Speaker 1: He was?
Speaker 5: But you know, he was angry about the things that
Speaker 5: Nicki Haley said about him, and he, you know, obviously
Speaker 5: wants to wrap this thing up as quickly as possible
Speaker 5: because he's got to be in court and fight these
Speaker 5: court battles. But you know, the reality is if she
Speaker 5: does get out, that's not necessarily a good thing for
Speaker 5: Donald Trump either, because people voting in primaries for him,
Speaker 5: in his best case scenario, is a way to increase
Speaker 5: turnout in the general election. We know that if you
Speaker 5: vote in the primary for somebody, you more likely to
Speaker 5: get out in the general. In an election this type,
Speaker 5: the last thing he should want, if he's looking at
Speaker 5: these voting numbers in these tight states is to wrap
Speaker 5: this thing up so early that people feel there's not
Speaker 5: much of a race and they don't get out. So
Speaker 5: you know, it doesn't make a lot of practical legal
Speaker 5: sense for them to do this at this point. And
Speaker 5: yet this has been the trajectory of Rona McDaniel. And
Speaker 5: if we look at the twenty twenty two election, you
Speaker 5: know this is a person who simply is not able
Speaker 5: to appeal beyond his base, and so they face that
Speaker 5: danger once again. We're talking about Republicans and he's appealing,
Speaker 5: but in the general he is going to face an
Speaker 5: uphill battle. He needs the turnout to be broad. And
Speaker 5: that's why this can be a mistake and they know
Speaker 5: that when they look at these numbers.
Speaker 6: Well, and Rick doesn't he also need the votes of
Speaker 6: people who otherwise would have voted for Nicki Haley. House
Speaker 6: should be How should he be approaching her as an
Speaker 6: opponent here when she's now starting to call him out
Speaker 6: on what she said was a temper tantrum on that
Speaker 6: evening in New Hampshire.
Speaker 9: Yeah, there's no question they'd must rather be talking about
Speaker 9: Joe Biden than Nicki Haley. And he wants to move
Speaker 9: toward consolidating all those voters. Right. Look at how quickly
Speaker 9: they move to get Ron DeSantis and his small band
Speaker 9: of Mary voters back into the fold with Donald Trump,
Speaker 9: and they want to do the same thing with Nicky Haley.
Speaker 9: He's all about consolidation. He doesn't want to look weak
Speaker 9: within his own party. You know, these are very important
Speaker 9: symbols of his power is that nobody disputes him as
Speaker 9: the otherwise leader of the Republican Party. But he wants
Speaker 9: to go against Biden. I mean like he is aching
Speaker 9: for that rematch, and he's like the aging boxer. You know,
Speaker 9: I'm going to get read my title back. I'm going
Speaker 9: to go back in the ring with this guy.
Speaker 1: And yet he's distracted.
Speaker 9: He's distracted by Nicki Haley. He's distracted by these court cases,
Speaker 9: neither of which have him talking about Biden. And so
Speaker 9: by the time he gets around to you know, the
Speaker 9: end of the day, he hasn't really spent much time
Speaker 9: putting any let on the tar with Biden. And that's
Speaker 9: a real problem for him because Biden is not slowing down.
Speaker 9: He is taking this campaign to Donald Trump. He doesn't
Speaker 9: have a legitimate primary contender, and he has the advantage
Speaker 9: right now if he'll take it up. Until this point
Speaker 9: in time, the Biden campaign has been pretty quiet, but
Speaker 9: I see that they might be starting to merge in
Speaker 9: a more of a contrast with Trump.
Speaker 2: How do you feel about that, Genie, because they're both
Speaker 2: heading for South Carolina this weekend. Obviously Nicki Haley is
Speaker 2: already there, but Joe Biden's acting like this is the
Speaker 2: general election right now.
Speaker 5: They are, I mean, they have revamped the team and
Speaker 5: they have put some old stalwarts back into the campaign fold.
Speaker 5: You know, he did very very well in New Hampshire,
Speaker 5: not being on the ballot. He did better than Barack
Speaker 5: Obama did in twenty twelve. And here he is. He's
Speaker 5: got people talking about a very good economy, good numbers
Speaker 5: right now, infrastructure, abortion anniversary, gun control. These are the
Speaker 5: things he wants to be talking about. So they are
Speaker 5: feeling good. And let's not forget the endorsement by the
Speaker 5: United Daughter Workers, another feather in his cap, particularly as.
Speaker 8: You look in the Midwest.
Speaker 5: So they are feeling pretty good this week and probably
Speaker 5: why Trump wants to consolidate his vote. But you can't
Speaker 5: do that by trying to kick out somebody, particularly if
Speaker 5: you are the chair of the Republican National Committee and
Speaker 5: you are the chair.
Speaker 6: Of that Murdy just on President Biden, Genie, we're about
Speaker 6: to discuss in our next segment the fact that the
Speaker 6: Biden administration has now put a halt on new licenses
Speaker 6: for LNG exports, something that obviously has ramifications for energy markets,
Speaker 6: potentially the American economy overall. Should we be looking at
Speaker 6: this as anything other than trying to pacify environmentalists in
Speaker 6: the left who is hoping to turn out for him
Speaker 6: in November.
Speaker 5: Well, you know, I think that is an important constituency
Speaker 5: of his. But I think it also reflects what the
Speaker 5: Biden administration has been trying to do for some time.
Speaker 5: They obviously are working number one towards a strong economy,
Speaker 5: but they recognize the fact that the environment matters enormously
Speaker 5: to all of our futures, and they have long said
Speaker 5: that you can do both. You can have a healthy
Speaker 5: environment and a healthy economy, and they are trying to
Speaker 5: lead the way on that with some of these new investments.
Speaker 5: So I do think it is in keeping with what
Speaker 5: they have been trying to do during a very difficult
Speaker 5: time as they move us out of this pandemic.
Speaker 3: We talked to.
Speaker 2: Heather Bouchet earlier in the broadcast about this, Kayley, and
Speaker 2: she seemed to indicate that the administration is not terribly
Speaker 2: worried about what happens to energy markets snatch gas markets
Speaker 2: in Europe, specifically, that we have enough to bridge the
Speaker 2: gap for now, but this could become a much bigger
Speaker 2: deal the longer it takes.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll talk more about that ahead.
Speaker 2: As you mentioned, Rick Davis, Geni Shanzano, many thanks as
Speaker 2: always for the conversation our signature panel.
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
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