1 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:08,200 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and 3 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:11,399 Speaker 1: then Brounoo with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 4 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:17,280 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 5 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Friday edition of Bloomberg's Balance of Power. 6 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington with another good round of 7 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 2: headlines on the economy today. 8 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 3: Just look at the terminal. 9 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 2: This is the kind of stuff the White House was 10 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 2: hoping for and in many cases planning for over the 11 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 2: past months. FET's preferred Corp price gauge, Yeah PCE cools 12 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 2: amid robust spending, recalling yesterday's GDP report that was off 13 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 2: the charts spot phone numbers here. We talked about it 14 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 2: with Gene Spurling on Balance of Power last evening. We 15 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 2: talk about it now with Heather Bouchet, who has the 16 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 2: ear of the President of course on all things economic, 17 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 2: joining us from a son North lawn. It's like seventy 18 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 2: degrees outside today in Washington, which is quite remarkable. Member 19 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 2: of the Council of Economic Advisors, Heather, it's good to 20 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 2: see you. Thank you so much for joining when you 21 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 2: start to put the data together here. I don't know 22 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 2: how you're feeling right now, but have we softly landed well? 23 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 4: I like to think of this economy as the little 24 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 4: engine that could. It is just chugging along. 25 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: It is. 26 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 4: You can see the strength in the reports from today 27 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 4: and yesterday. Of course, we saw that growth was three 28 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 4: point one percent last year. And you know, over a 29 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 4: year ago, forecasters were predicting that twenty twenty three would 30 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 4: be a recession, that we would see growth the negative 31 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 4: zero point one percent, and that's not what happened. We 32 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 4: have seen this strength in the US economy and alongside 33 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 4: the ongoing strength and the labor market and so and 34 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 4: of course all of this paired with the softening of prices, 35 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 4: so that price increases are not going as fast. So 36 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 4: we have a new low below three percent in the 37 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 4: annual rate of the core piece. But again, when you 38 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 4: look over the last six months, both headline and core 39 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 4: PCE are hovering at about two percent. So this is 40 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,680 Speaker 4: really good news. We're seeing this growth, we're seeing this investment. 41 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 4: It's delivering for the American people in a way that 42 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 4: is strong, shared and across the country. And we're also 43 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 4: seeing that inflation has been cooling. 44 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 2: Where are we going to be six months from now, Heather? 45 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 2: Is it possible to answer that question? Based on the 46 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 2: trajectory that we are on. Many forecasts would suggest that 47 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 2: you might in fact be at that two percent target 48 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:41,239 Speaker 2: that the soft landing will essentially be confirmed. 49 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 3: How does your crystal ball look? 50 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 5: Well? 51 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:46,920 Speaker 4: I do not have a crystal ball, but here's what 52 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 4: I can tell you. When you put all the pieces 53 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 4: together of what we're seeing, and you pair that with 54 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 4: the investments that the President is making all across the country, 55 00:02:55,360 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 4: game changing investments and infrastructure, in advancing new technology geez, 56 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 4: in advancing clean energy, what you see in as an 57 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 4: economy that is delivering now having recovered from the pandemic, 58 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 4: but one where we're making those game changing investments that 59 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:12,919 Speaker 4: are going to drive productivity, growth and jobs for years 60 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 4: to come. And so given just how strong these reports are, 61 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 4: this all looks very good. One statistic that really jumped 62 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:23,640 Speaker 4: out to us as we were looking at the data 63 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 4: is that the new investment in the construction of private 64 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 4: manufacturing facilities something that we've been watching closely because those 65 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 4: are the kinds of investments that we're trying the President 66 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 4: is trying to induce through is investing in American agenda. 67 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 4: You are seeing that the contribution of that to growth 68 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 4: is higher than it's been going back to nineteen fifty nine, 69 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 4: so that that investment continues to fan out across the country. 70 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 4: And of course that's leading to an upticking construction jobs now, 71 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 4: but that'll lead to a shift in other kinds of 72 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 4: jobs in years to come. 73 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 2: I know part of your job is to bring calm 74 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 2: and balance to the conversation, Heather Bouchet, and you're awfully 75 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 2: good at that. But as I look at this stock market, 76 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 2: as I consider the data here, you're not a member 77 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 2: of the political apparatus at the White House, But is 78 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 2: it not time to start jumping up and down a 79 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 2: little bit more to get this message across to the 80 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 2: American people. 81 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 4: Well, we hear at the White House are working hard 82 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 4: every day to communicate the strength of this economy, how 83 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:25,719 Speaker 4: the President has been building an economy from the middle out. 84 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 4: So you know, so many of my colleagues, myself traveling 85 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 4: the country talking to folks like you. You know, this 86 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 4: has been a tough, a tough road, right. The President 87 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:37,279 Speaker 4: came into office in the middle of a pandemic recession, 88 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 4: and then of course we had Putin's unprovoked war in 89 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 4: the Ukraine that up ended global energy prices, and there 90 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:45,279 Speaker 4: was a lot of uncertainty how fast could we recover, 91 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,840 Speaker 4: you know, would supply chains renormalize, would we see you know, 92 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:52,200 Speaker 4: the up ending of energy prices last for a long time. 93 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,839 Speaker 4: And now we really see over the past year that 94 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 4: all of those things have come back together, they've gotten 95 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 4: under control, and the strength of the economy, the underlying 96 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 4: strength is really starting to shine. 97 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 2: We're talking with Heather Bouchet live from the White House 98 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 2: on Balance of Power Today. Important news from the administration, Heather, 99 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 2: is the President halting the approval of new licenses to 100 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 2: export LNG, the liquefied natural gas. While it scrutinizes the 101 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 2: impact that this would have these shipments would have on 102 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 2: climate change. What level of concern do you have here 103 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 2: to potentially disrupt already fragile energy markets in Europe. 104 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 4: Well, this is a very important issue, you know. Let 105 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 4: me start by noting that the President from day one 106 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 4: has had a whole of government approach to addressing climate change, 107 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 4: and core to that has been making the investments we 108 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 4: need to make to put the United States on the 109 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 4: leading edge of investing in clean energy technologies and the 110 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 4: capacity to produce those here in the United States and 111 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 4: to shore up that global process there. Now, what we 112 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,719 Speaker 4: see in these exports is that right now the United 113 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:03,159 Speaker 4: States is the world number one exporter of LNG, and 114 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 4: we know that over the next decade that's actually predicted 115 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 4: to double. And we've been working very closely and feel 116 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:11,840 Speaker 4: confident that we have enough to be able to assure 117 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 4: our allies that we'll be able to continue to play 118 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 4: this really important role. But at the same time, we 119 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 4: need to make sure that we, like other countries, are 120 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:22,839 Speaker 4: doing what we can do to address the climate change challenges. 121 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:25,599 Speaker 4: You started this segment by noting that, you know, it's 122 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 4: over seventy degrees here in DC in the middle of January, 123 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:32,160 Speaker 4: you know, and we are all sort of struggling with 124 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 4: the increasing physical damages of climate change and the need 125 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 4: to make these investments as the President is doing in 126 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:40,800 Speaker 4: spurring those clean energy investments. 127 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 2: Okay, are you able to tell our allies how long 128 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 2: this pause might last? 129 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 4: I am not able to say that now. 130 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 2: Weeks, not months. There's no sense of how long a 131 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:55,479 Speaker 2: review like that would take. And I'm not trying to 132 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 2: push this too Farheather. I don't know if there's a 133 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 2: presumption of how long something like that might need to take. 134 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 4: This is being carefully considered and conversations are ongoing. 135 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 2: I have to ask you as well about what's been 136 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 2: happening in the Red Sea. This is of course a 137 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 2: major issue for the administration, and we've certainly seen the 138 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 2: Pentagon get involved here in trying to secure shipments through 139 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 2: the Red Sea following a series of attacks from Houthi 140 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 2: rebels in Yemen. At what point do you grow concerned 141 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 2: about the impact on supply chain and prices. 142 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 4: Well, this is something we have been tracking since the beginning. 143 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 4: We've also been of course looking at you know, how 144 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 4: El Nino and droughts have been affecting the Panama Canal. 145 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 4: So we of course in this administration have been very 146 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 4: concerned about supply chains and global shipping as we have 147 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 4: looked at this, given what shippers have been doing being 148 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:54,559 Speaker 4: able to move their transportation to other ways of getting 149 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 4: around the world. That does take a little bit more 150 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 4: time and it does cost a little bit more. But 151 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 4: our assessment is is that when it comes to the 152 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 4: US consumer, we do not expect to see a large 153 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 4: price shock. And I also just want to note that 154 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 4: we don't expect to see anything like what we saw 155 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 4: during the pandemic with those global supply chain challenges. That's 156 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 4: not to underestimate this, but at this point it looks 157 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 4: like the effects for the consumer will be will be limited. Well, 158 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 4: that's will continue to monitor They will continue to monitor it. 159 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, sure, and I realized this is a fluid situation, Heather. 160 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 2: What does the CEA look at? How does the council 161 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 2: deal with something like this in your tracking? 162 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 3: What indicators are you watching? 163 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:41,560 Speaker 4: Well, we're looking at the geopolitical situation. We're looking at 164 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 4: you know what, what kinds of goods are transported around 165 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 4: the world and where they get to the American consumer, 166 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 4: and what it would mean to take longer routes and 167 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:56,320 Speaker 4: you know what the estimated impact would be of those 168 00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 4: costs of doing so, and how long and how how 169 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 4: much additional time that would take to get goods to 170 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 4: the consumer. 171 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, with energy prices in mind, I'll ask you 172 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 2: lastly if that's the wild card for you right now. 173 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:11,959 Speaker 2: We've seen crude oil pop up a bit over the 174 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 2: past couple of weeks based on what we're watching in 175 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 2: the Middle East, and no real disruption here, it seems 176 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 2: in terms of supply shock, but everyone's kind of on 177 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 2: edge waiting for something to happen. 178 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 3: Is that your wild cards? Is that what keeps you 179 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 3: up at night? Right now? 180 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 4: There are so many wild cards that keep me up 181 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 4: at night because it is literally my job to worry 182 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 4: about these things for the President with my colleagues. Yeah, 183 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 4: so certainly this is something that we are always watching closely. 184 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 4: I mean, let me just note that this is one 185 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:43,680 Speaker 4: of the core reasons that I think that the President's 186 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 4: investments in clean energy are so economically important. Once we 187 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:51,319 Speaker 4: can make those investments, we will be able to extricate 188 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 4: ourselves from this very volatile global energy prices and provide 189 00:09:56,400 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 4: consumers with more stable access with more stable prices. For now, 190 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 4: we continue to monitor the situation closely. 191 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 2: Speaking from her perch on the Council of Economic Advisors 192 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 2: at the White House, Heather Bouchet, it's good to have 193 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 2: you back on Bloomberg. 194 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 3: We appreciate the time. 195 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Kens 196 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:21,080 Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Enroid 197 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 1: Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 198 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 199 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 200 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 2: Joe. 201 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 6: I'm sure you saw earlier today the dear colleague letter 202 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:37,439 Speaker 6: from the Speaker of the House, My deal with dear 203 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 6: colleague Mike Johnson. Never good news, dear colleague. Comma goes 204 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 6: on to say, if rumors of the draft proposal are true, 205 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 6: and this is alluding to the deal that sent and 206 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 6: negotiators are working on with the White House to try 207 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 6: to secure an agreement that ties Ukraine funding to border security, 208 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,439 Speaker 6: it would have been dead on arrival in the House anyway. 209 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:03,400 Speaker 6: That's exhibit. If the rumors are true, it would be 210 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 6: dead on arrival in the House. So how do you 211 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 6: get Ukraine funding through the House when so many members 212 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 6: don't seem to want it. If you're not going to 213 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:15,199 Speaker 6: do it in a border deal, it's a problem. It 214 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 6: is especially perhaps for Ukraine as it is continuing to 215 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:21,560 Speaker 6: fight a war against Russia. 216 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the great fear of the administration. By 217 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:25,959 Speaker 2: the way, we're right about the time they're supposed to 218 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:27,679 Speaker 2: be running out of money, correct, wasn't that supposed to 219 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 2: be January into February with the last cash from America. 220 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:34,440 Speaker 6: Yes, with the two year anniversary of the war quickly 221 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 6: approaching next month. So let's turned out to Nick Wadams, 222 00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 6: who covers US National Security for US here at Bloomberg 223 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:43,319 Speaker 6: and of course has been laser focused over the last 224 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 6: two years of this conflict on what's happening between Ukraine 225 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:50,199 Speaker 6: and Russia. Nick, do we actually have an understanding of 226 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 6: what the US is able to provide if this is 227 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 6: supplemental funding doesn't come through, or is it cold Turkey 228 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 6: cut off? 229 00:11:57,200 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 7: Well, I mean the big that's the question whether an 230 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:05,079 Speaker 7: agency like the Pentagon that gets, you know, eight hundred 231 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 7: and fifty billion dollars a year can find a little 232 00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:10,560 Speaker 7: loose change between the couch cushions. But right now they 233 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 7: are saying unequivocally no. I mean, we had a Ukraine 234 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 7: Defense Contact Group meeting a few days ago where Secretary 235 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 7: Austin was there with about fifty other defense ministers from 236 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 7: around the world, and he urged other countries to quote 237 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:27,840 Speaker 7: unquote dig deep to help Ukraine. But this was basically 238 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 7: the first and I think it was the eighteenth of 239 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:32,000 Speaker 7: the nineteenth meeting of this group, or the US had 240 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,600 Speaker 7: nothing to offer. I mean, they are absolutely frozen in 241 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 7: place right now, and there is really no prospect for 242 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 7: that to come unbudged anytime soon absent action from Congress. 243 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:45,959 Speaker 2: What do our European allies think of this idea, because 244 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:48,560 Speaker 2: we've clearly been leading the charge on us. 245 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:51,720 Speaker 7: Well, I mean you've had the UK come around with 246 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:54,200 Speaker 7: what it says is, you know, it's trying to help 247 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 7: more so adding I think another two point five billion 248 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 7: dollars to the fight. But I mean when you're looking 249 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 7: what Jobe and is asking for, I mean sixty sixty 250 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 7: billion dollars for this year. I mean it's just the 251 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 7: magnitude is just completely different. So you know, what we're 252 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 7: starting to see, interestingly, is a focus in Ukraine to 253 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 7: shifting much more to defense. So there's really no expectation 254 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 7: right now that Ukraine would be able to have the 255 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 7: capacity to take back any more of the land that 256 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 7: Russia seesed during the invasion. And the result is that, 257 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:28,319 Speaker 7: really I think what they're really trying to do is 258 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 7: hunker down and just try to withstand the Russian assault. 259 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 6: So then it becomes a QUESTIONNK of even if this 260 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:38,320 Speaker 6: aid comes through, whether or not Ukraine can actually win 261 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 6: this war, and perhaps the way they'd want to in 262 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 6: recuperating all of that land, getting it out once again 263 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 6: of Russia's hands. So what's the endgame? Is the endgame 264 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:50,559 Speaker 6: changing the longer this goes on, You know. 265 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 7: That is very much a live debate within the administration 266 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 7: because there is a broad recognition I think within the 267 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 7: administration that Mark Milly, the former Airman and the Joint Chiefs, 268 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 7: was right when he said last year, listen, we are 269 00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 7: headed towards salemate. Russia. It's unlikely they're going to be 270 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 7: able to take a lot more land, but it's very 271 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 7: unlikely that Ukraine is going to be able to pry 272 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 7: them lose from that land. That was even when the 273 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 7: US was contributing a ton of money. I think what 274 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 7: you're seeing as a broad recognition that this thing, yes, 275 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 7: we are not going to see a significant change in 276 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 7: the lines in twenty twenty four. Who knows what twenty 277 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 7: twenty five will bring, but there needs to be at 278 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 7: least some sort of discussion about what an endgame looks like. 279 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 7: So far, it's really not much more further along in 280 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 7: terms of their thinking than that. 281 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 2: Lastlynk, your team is up with the story that Vladimir 282 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 2: Putin is sending signals that he might be ready to 283 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 2: sit down and have peace talks. Is that emboldened by 284 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 2: the idea of money running out? Does that strengthen his hand? 285 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 7: I think there are a few things going on there. 286 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 7: So it's very unclear why Putin would be sending these signals. 287 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 7: We know he is sending the signals that hey, I'm 288 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 7: ready to play ball here, but there are a lot 289 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 7: of reasons that could be. One is he may want 290 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 7: and out. Another is he's looking to take advantage or 291 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 7: perhaps insert himself in the conversations in Congress, because you 292 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 7: could have some people say, hey, look, Vladimir Putin wants 293 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 7: a way out, we don't need to send Ukraine more money. 294 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 7: The other issue is Putin himself has an election coming up. 295 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 7: He needs to shore up a popularity within Russia, and 296 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 7: the idea that he's looking for peace, looking for an 297 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 7: end of this conflict plays very well. So to be honest, 298 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 7: one of the least likely ideas is that he's actually 299 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 7: willing to make any major concessions. I don't think you're 300 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 7: going to see that anytime soon. 301 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 3: Thanks for being here. 302 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:40,360 Speaker 2: As always, Nick Bottoms, he's one of the best here. 303 00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 2: His whole team is. Our national security team has had 304 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 2: quite a time covering this, Kayley, and great information that 305 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 2: you can find on the terminal and at Bloomberg dot com. 306 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 3: As we had the voice of Melinda Herring. We very 307 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 3: specifically called Melinda. 308 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 2: To talk today about this because she actually has a 309 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 2: very good sense of what this means. Of course, with 310 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 2: the Atlantic Council's spent more time in Kiev than just 311 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 2: about anyone you're going to hear from on this program 312 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 2: since the start of the war. 313 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 3: Melinda, it's great to see you. 314 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 2: What is the White House telling Republican leadership behind closed 315 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 2: doors in these briefings with Jake Sullivan about what will 316 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 2: happen to Ukraine when the money runs out. Let's let's 317 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:20,040 Speaker 2: look out, say three to six months. What would be 318 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 2: the chain reaction that followed the end of the money trail? 319 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,240 Speaker 8: Hey, Joe, thanks for having me back. So the White 320 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 8: House is telling Republicans get real that the situation in 321 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 8: Ukraine is not just going to stay in Ukraine, that 322 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 8: it has real security implications for Europe and for the 323 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 8: United States. And they are showing classified information, and they're 324 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 8: talking about what happens if the sixty one billion dollars 325 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 8: does not go through. So make no mistake about it, 326 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 8: there is no short term alternative. If this money doesn't 327 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 8: come through, it's going to make it even more difficult 328 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 8: on the front lines. We already soldiers are rationing shells. 329 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:04,679 Speaker 8: There's not enough one hundred and fifty five millimeters shells. 330 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:08,119 Speaker 8: Europe is not going to meet the one million shells 331 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:10,639 Speaker 8: that they promised this year, while the North Koreans have 332 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 8: already delivered those to Moscow. So it's really a dire situation. 333 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 8: We also see Ukrainian commanders saying we can't do the 334 00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 8: kinds of operations we want because we don't have the 335 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:23,399 Speaker 8: kit that we need now. And this is only a 336 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,719 Speaker 8: couple months after the US has run out of funds. 337 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 6: So if we could just elaborate on that europe point, Melinda, 338 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 6: because obviously the US is not the only ally that's 339 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,320 Speaker 6: in the game here that has been providing the support. 340 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 6: Europe has as well. I think even a greater chunk 341 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:42,639 Speaker 6: of their share of GDP has been spent relative to 342 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:45,600 Speaker 6: the US. Are they too starting to pull back? 343 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 8: No, Actually, the opposite is happening. So the Europeans are 344 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:54,440 Speaker 8: starting to wake up. Schultz in Germany has said it's 345 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 8: time to start doing more, but it's not clear how 346 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 8: far they're going to go. So Schultz has a conference 347 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 8: the first week of February. He's bringing everyone together in 348 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:07,720 Speaker 8: Europe and he's saying, this situation is serious. We have 349 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:10,159 Speaker 8: to get real, and he's going to point fingers, and 350 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,159 Speaker 8: he's likely going to point fingers at France, Italy and 351 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 8: Spain who have not done enough. When you look at 352 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:18,440 Speaker 8: the figures, but just to zoom back out for a minute, 353 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 8: there's different categories of aid, and the US is the 354 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 8: biggest donor of military aid. Europe has done a lot, 355 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:27,880 Speaker 8: but they've been more active on the humanitarian and economic 356 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 8: assistance front. That's why this is such a big deal. 357 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 2: So how did the dominoes fall here? If American money 358 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:38,399 Speaker 2: comes to an end, Melinda, Is this, as Nick mentioned, 359 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 2: mark Milly's vision of a stalemate, a war of attrition 360 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 2: that essentially grinds Ukraine down to nothing. Or is Vladimir 361 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 2: Putin emboldened to the extent that a NATO country could 362 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 2: be involved Poland or one of Poland's neighbors, and we 363 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 2: have a major problem that entangles the US. 364 00:18:59,320 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 5: Joe. 365 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 8: I'm going to quote my friend General Philip Breeblove, who 366 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 8: ran NATO, and he just gave a wonderful briefing, and 367 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 8: he said everything depends on us and on the choices 368 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 8: that our leaders make. Now, there's different scenarios that we 369 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 8: could run through, but if Ukraine does not get the 370 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 8: weapons it needs to defend itself, it will lose. Eventually. 371 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 8: Ukrainians are not going to give up even if the 372 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 8: sixty one billion dollars does not come, but more Ukrainians 373 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 8: are going to die. They when I go to Kiev 374 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 8: and talk to them about these sort of dire scenarios, 375 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 8: they tell me we will fight with forks, we will 376 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,719 Speaker 8: fight with AK forty seven's. We've lost too much. We 377 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 8: know what Russian we know what Russian occupation is, and 378 00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 8: we're not going to live that way. So it's going 379 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 8: to get much messier and more people are going to die. 380 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:49,679 Speaker 8: I think the concern though, is that if Putin is 381 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 8: able to take a big chunk of Ukraine, you know, 382 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:56,880 Speaker 8: through attrition and through our bad policy choices, and again 383 00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 8: we are if we do not provide this assistance. Ukraine 384 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:02,479 Speaker 8: is going to lose, and it is going to be 385 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 8: our fault and it is going to threaten Western security 386 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:09,880 Speaker 8: for the next fifty years. Could NATO get drawn in? Absolutely? 387 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:13,320 Speaker 8: Putin's plan is to reconstitute his forces and he may 388 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,360 Speaker 8: go after a NATO member next. Does that automatically pull 389 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:19,000 Speaker 8: the US in? It does not automatically pull it in. 390 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 8: But under the Article five guarantee, if a NATO member 391 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 8: were hit, they would have to have a discussion and 392 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 8: they would likely defend that territory, so it would involve 393 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 8: the United States. 394 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 6: So then let's talk about Russia's capacity specifically, as you 395 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:37,880 Speaker 6: talk about how Ukraine's capacity, their munitions are waning, They're 396 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:43,120 Speaker 6: obviously losing a great deal of Ukrainian soldiers. What about Russia? 397 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 6: Do they really have the resources to continue the fight 398 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 6: this long? 399 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:49,399 Speaker 8: So far they do so. They just got a million 400 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:53,360 Speaker 8: shells from North Korea and they are getting more rockets 401 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:57,200 Speaker 8: and drones from Iran as well. The Russian side has 402 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 8: good talented financial managers and they have been able to 403 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 8: make things to keep the economy afloat and to keep 404 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 8: things going in spite of losing a lot of very 405 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,959 Speaker 8: talented folks. So you know, it's a question of how 406 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,160 Speaker 8: long can they hold out? But that's actually the wrong question. 407 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 8: I think in Putin's mind, he's wondering if he thinks 408 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 8: he can hold out longer than the West can, And 409 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 8: that's sort of We're in a pivotal point right now 410 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:25,639 Speaker 8: with the US election. 411 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 2: What happens to our reputation internationally, our allies or beyond Melinda, 412 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,200 Speaker 2: if this goes down the way it appears, it might, 413 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:42,200 Speaker 2: no border deal, no money for Ukraine, and they're left alone. 414 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 8: Joe, that's the money question. I think it means that 415 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:51,879 Speaker 8: America is not much of a superpower anymore, that we 416 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 8: don't keep our promises. I mean, even in the language 417 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 8: of Joe Biden, we've seen him change from we will 418 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 8: be there as long as it takes to will be 419 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 8: there as long as we can, and that is not 420 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 8: a mistake in rhetoric. You know, the sands are changing 421 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 8: politically right now, but that's not where the American people are. 422 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 8: If you look at where the American people are, they 423 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 8: overwhelmingly support Ukraine and they don't like bullies. They view 424 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,880 Speaker 8: Vladimir Putin as a bully. So I think it's time 425 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 8: for Americans to pick up their phones and call their 426 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 8: congressmen and call the White House and demand that we 427 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 8: keep standing with the people of Ukraine until they are 428 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,920 Speaker 8: able to push the Russians back. 429 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 6: Well, as we talk about Vladimir Putin, and we were 430 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 6: just discussing this with our own Nick Waddams, this idea 431 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,119 Speaker 6: that he's starting to signal that perhaps he would be 432 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 6: open to conversations about how to bring this to an end. 433 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 6: Can he be viewed as a trustworthy actor in any conversation. 434 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 8: No, he cannot. And honestly, we've seen this movie many 435 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,400 Speaker 8: times before. So if you look at Putin's narratives, these 436 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,640 Speaker 8: two for the Study of War has looked at when 437 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:02,159 Speaker 8: does Vladimir Putin talk negotiations And the answer to this 438 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 8: is he talks about negotiations when the West has to 439 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,359 Speaker 8: make a hard decision about weapons, or when the West 440 00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 8: has to make a hard decision. He's trying to distract us. 441 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 8: He is not interested in negotiations whatsoever. Look at Dmitri 442 00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:20,440 Speaker 8: Midvittev's rhetoric two days ago, he says that he's going 443 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:24,120 Speaker 8: to use nuclear weapons. He's talked about over and over 444 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 8: again about how Ukrainians are not real people. They reject 445 00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 8: Ukrainian territorial claims. The Russians are not serious about negotiations, 446 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:38,160 Speaker 8: and they're trying to keep the United States from passing 447 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:39,920 Speaker 8: this assistants bill. That's all it is. 448 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 2: I'm out of time here, Melinda, and really I hate 449 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:45,280 Speaker 2: having to cut anyone off. 450 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:46,639 Speaker 3: I just have to mention quickly. 451 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:51,040 Speaker 2: Russia now accusing Ukraine of shooting down a large military plane, 452 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 2: a cargo style plane that was carrying sixty five Ukrainian 453 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:55,720 Speaker 2: prisoners for an exchange. 454 00:23:56,600 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 3: You don't believe this report. Why would Ukraine do something like. 455 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:04,600 Speaker 8: That, Joe. I think we're still waiting for the investigation. 456 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,760 Speaker 8: I don't think we know enough, and I'm not willing 457 00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 8: to put my faith on the Russian side of the story. 458 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 8: So on that one, I would ask your viewers, let's 459 00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 8: wait and see until the investigation comes out. 460 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:18,440 Speaker 3: Well. 461 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,360 Speaker 2: Your restraint is always well received here, Melinda Herring from 462 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 2: the Atlantic Council, We thank you, as always for the insights. 463 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,960 Speaker 2: It was an IL seventy six aircraft, like a big 464 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,960 Speaker 2: cargo plane that went down, Kayley. A terrible story emerging 465 00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:34,320 Speaker 2: here from Russia. More straight ahead, this is Bloomberg. 466 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:42,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 467 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,120 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play, 468 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,960 Speaker 1: and then Proudoro with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on 469 00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:51,200 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 470 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 471 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,440 Speaker 6: We're only two states in to the Republican primary. 472 00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 3: You notice that just too A lot of people think 473 00:24:59,560 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 3: it's over. 474 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,600 Speaker 6: Forty eight states still have not voted on anything or anyone, 475 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:08,120 Speaker 6: and yet apparently the R and C was considering adopting 476 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:12,880 Speaker 6: a resolution to declare Donald Trump the party's presumptive nominee 477 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 6: after two states Iowa and New Hampshire, which. 478 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,280 Speaker 2: I guess shouldn't be a shock after Ronald McDaniel went 479 00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,919 Speaker 2: on TV to urge Nikki Haley to drop out of 480 00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 2: the race the day after New Hampshire, saying that she 481 00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:28,160 Speaker 2: didn't see a map a path for her on the map. 482 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,720 Speaker 2: And you've got Mitch McConnell calling him the nominee behind 483 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 2: closed doors on Capitol Hill. 484 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 3: What's going on around here? 485 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,919 Speaker 6: Well, Donald Trump actually has an opinion about it. He 486 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,439 Speaker 6: posted on True Social last night. I feel for the 487 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 6: sake of party unity that they should not go forward 488 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,520 Speaker 6: with this plan, but that I should do it the 489 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 6: old fashion way and finish the process off at the 490 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:49,399 Speaker 6: ballot box. 491 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,200 Speaker 2: Well, if anyone likes to do it the old fashioned way, 492 00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 2: it's Donald Trump. 493 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:55,120 Speaker 1: He earned it. 494 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 3: Well, sorry, that was an old commercial. Should we bring 495 00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:00,560 Speaker 3: in the PA, Yes? 496 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 2: We shul Rick Davis and Genie Shanzo joined Bloomberg Politics contributors. 497 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,440 Speaker 3: You know what I'm talking about, right, Jeannie, the old 498 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:07,160 Speaker 3: fashioned way. 499 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 2: Are you surprised Donald Trump doesn't want to just shut 500 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 2: it down? 501 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 8: Now? 502 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:11,200 Speaker 3: Who's talking to him? 503 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 5: Yeah? I mean it's so fascinating because yes, I do 504 00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,199 Speaker 5: remember that commercial, by the way, Joe Matthew. But it 505 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 5: is so fascinating because you're looking at this thing and 506 00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 5: you're saying, this guy one to Kaylee's point, two hundred 507 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:29,400 Speaker 5: and thirty thousand votes in two very small, non representative states. 508 00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,600 Speaker 5: We have until late July for the convention to start, 509 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,879 Speaker 5: and you have Roni McDaniel and the RNC pushing to 510 00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 5: declare hid In the winner, and him swooping back in 511 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 5: on truth social and saying, hey, guys, I will do 512 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,000 Speaker 5: it the old fashioned way, as you say. You know, 513 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,800 Speaker 5: the odd thing is, I'm struggling to figure out how 514 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 5: the party could benefit from this save a few million dollars, 515 00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:54,479 Speaker 5: I don't know, but strategically it doesn't make sense. And 516 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:58,880 Speaker 5: of course this is sort of I think party members 517 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 5: trying to bow to the feed of Donald Trump and 518 00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 5: saying you are the presumptive nominee. Forget about the delegates 519 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 5: at twelve fifteen or whatever it is you need to win, 520 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 5: We will just make you the presumptive nominee right now. 521 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:16,280 Speaker 6: But Rick, isn't he the presumptive nominee? I mean, it's 522 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 6: one thing to officially declare it in this in this 523 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 6: very lower sense for the RNC, But this was the 524 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,919 Speaker 6: conversation we were all having on Tuesday night after New 525 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:28,360 Speaker 6: Hampshire he won. Nikki Hailey lost by eleven points. Very 526 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:30,600 Speaker 6: difficult to see her path forward, how she has any 527 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 6: credible path to the nomination, And doesn't that get us 528 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 6: too presumptive? 529 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean presumptive is actually a technical term. 530 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:40,399 Speaker 1: You know. 531 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 9: It means that you've assembled the twelve hundred and fifteen 532 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:47,159 Speaker 9: votes that you need to win a convention. And so 533 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 9: there's there are those like me who think until you've 534 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:55,280 Speaker 9: crossed that threshold, you can't be called a presumptive nominee. 535 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,960 Speaker 9: You can be called the guy who's gonna win. You 536 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 9: can be called the guy who's crushed the opposition. You 537 00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:01,920 Speaker 9: can be called a lot of things, but you can't 538 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:06,160 Speaker 9: be called presumptive nominee. And there are some technical reasons too, 539 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,160 Speaker 9: when you start looking at sort of joint fundraising committees 540 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:12,000 Speaker 9: with the RNC. There are things you can do before 541 00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:14,400 Speaker 9: you're the presumptive nominee, and there are things that get 542 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,520 Speaker 9: charged against your cap once you're the presumptive nominee for 543 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:21,439 Speaker 9: the general election. So there, my guess is the Trump campaign, 544 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,400 Speaker 9: which is being run very professionally, looked at these things 545 00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:26,920 Speaker 9: and said, why in the world do we need that 546 00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,879 Speaker 9: moniker that'll just put pressure on our fundraising operation. And 547 00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,679 Speaker 9: then there's the practical political reason. The last thing you 548 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,879 Speaker 9: want to tell voters three weeks before a primary in 549 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 9: South Carolina. 550 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 3: Is guys, I got this. 551 00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:42,960 Speaker 9: It's over. Don't worry about turning out. I'm the presumptive nominee. 552 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:47,360 Speaker 9: So there's a reason why the guys down in mar 553 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 9: A Lago are going no, no, no, no, no, We're 554 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 9: not there yet. So until Nicky Haley is dispatched, nobody 555 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 9: wants to call him that. 556 00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 3: That's pretty Genie. 557 00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 2: You know, it is possible, as we discussed earlier on 558 00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:05,480 Speaker 2: the broadcast, that he gets that number, he gets more 559 00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:11,120 Speaker 2: than halfway to twelve fifteen around Super Tuesday. But if 560 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 2: we're already calling for restraint here, why was he calling 561 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,600 Speaker 2: on Nicky Haley to drop out of the race the 562 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:21,760 Speaker 2: other night? He was essentially calling himself the nominee, wasn't he? 563 00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 1: He was? 564 00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,920 Speaker 5: But you know, he was angry about the things that 565 00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:28,400 Speaker 5: Nicki Haley said about him, and he, you know, obviously 566 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,240 Speaker 5: wants to wrap this thing up as quickly as possible 567 00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,360 Speaker 5: because he's got to be in court and fight these 568 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,520 Speaker 5: court battles. But you know, the reality is if she 569 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,880 Speaker 5: does get out, that's not necessarily a good thing for 570 00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:46,080 Speaker 5: Donald Trump either, because people voting in primaries for him, 571 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 5: in his best case scenario, is a way to increase 572 00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,920 Speaker 5: turnout in the general election. We know that if you 573 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,440 Speaker 5: vote in the primary for somebody, you more likely to 574 00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 5: get out in the general. In an election this type, 575 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:01,280 Speaker 5: the last thing he should want, if he's looking at 576 00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,840 Speaker 5: these voting numbers in these tight states is to wrap 577 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,680 Speaker 5: this thing up so early that people feel there's not 578 00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:08,920 Speaker 5: much of a race and they don't get out. So 579 00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:12,440 Speaker 5: you know, it doesn't make a lot of practical legal 580 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,400 Speaker 5: sense for them to do this at this point. And 581 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,720 Speaker 5: yet this has been the trajectory of Rona McDaniel. And 582 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,000 Speaker 5: if we look at the twenty twenty two election, you 583 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:26,800 Speaker 5: know this is a person who simply is not able 584 00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:31,440 Speaker 5: to appeal beyond his base, and so they face that 585 00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:35,720 Speaker 5: danger once again. We're talking about Republicans and he's appealing, 586 00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,120 Speaker 5: but in the general he is going to face an 587 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,760 Speaker 5: uphill battle. He needs the turnout to be broad. And 588 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,280 Speaker 5: that's why this can be a mistake and they know 589 00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 5: that when they look at these numbers. 590 00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,840 Speaker 6: Well, and Rick doesn't he also need the votes of 591 00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,880 Speaker 6: people who otherwise would have voted for Nicki Haley. House 592 00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:55,400 Speaker 6: should be How should he be approaching her as an 593 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,520 Speaker 6: opponent here when she's now starting to call him out 594 00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:00,040 Speaker 6: on what she said was a temper tantrum on that 595 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 6: evening in New Hampshire. 596 00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 9: Yeah, there's no question they'd must rather be talking about 597 00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:09,320 Speaker 9: Joe Biden than Nicki Haley. And he wants to move 598 00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 9: toward consolidating all those voters. Right. Look at how quickly 599 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:16,360 Speaker 9: they move to get Ron DeSantis and his small band 600 00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:19,560 Speaker 9: of Mary voters back into the fold with Donald Trump, 601 00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,480 Speaker 9: and they want to do the same thing with Nicky Haley. 602 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 9: He's all about consolidation. He doesn't want to look weak 603 00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,840 Speaker 9: within his own party. You know, these are very important 604 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:32,160 Speaker 9: symbols of his power is that nobody disputes him as 605 00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,760 Speaker 9: the otherwise leader of the Republican Party. But he wants 606 00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,760 Speaker 9: to go against Biden. I mean like he is aching 607 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:42,840 Speaker 9: for that rematch, and he's like the aging boxer. You know, 608 00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,080 Speaker 9: I'm going to get read my title back. I'm going 609 00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 9: to go back in the ring with this guy. 610 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:48,520 Speaker 1: And yet he's distracted. 611 00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:52,080 Speaker 9: He's distracted by Nicki Haley. He's distracted by these court cases, 612 00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:54,520 Speaker 9: neither of which have him talking about Biden. And so 613 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,600 Speaker 9: by the time he gets around to you know, the 614 00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:58,840 Speaker 9: end of the day, he hasn't really spent much time 615 00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,480 Speaker 9: putting any let on the tar with Biden. And that's 616 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,480 Speaker 9: a real problem for him because Biden is not slowing down. 617 00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 9: He is taking this campaign to Donald Trump. He doesn't 618 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:12,120 Speaker 9: have a legitimate primary contender, and he has the advantage 619 00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,920 Speaker 9: right now if he'll take it up. Until this point 620 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,320 Speaker 9: in time, the Biden campaign has been pretty quiet, but 621 00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:19,640 Speaker 9: I see that they might be starting to merge in 622 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:21,200 Speaker 9: a more of a contrast with Trump. 623 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:24,680 Speaker 2: How do you feel about that, Genie, because they're both 624 00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:27,840 Speaker 2: heading for South Carolina this weekend. Obviously Nicki Haley is 625 00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,000 Speaker 2: already there, but Joe Biden's acting like this is the 626 00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:31,240 Speaker 2: general election right now. 627 00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,240 Speaker 5: They are, I mean, they have revamped the team and 628 00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:39,560 Speaker 5: they have put some old stalwarts back into the campaign fold. 629 00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:43,440 Speaker 5: You know, he did very very well in New Hampshire, 630 00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:46,040 Speaker 5: not being on the ballot. He did better than Barack 631 00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 5: Obama did in twenty twelve. And here he is. He's 632 00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,640 Speaker 5: got people talking about a very good economy, good numbers 633 00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:58,280 Speaker 5: right now, infrastructure, abortion anniversary, gun control. These are the 634 00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,400 Speaker 5: things he wants to be talking about. So they are 635 00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,240 Speaker 5: feeling good. And let's not forget the endorsement by the 636 00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:07,160 Speaker 5: United Daughter Workers, another feather in his cap, particularly as. 637 00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:08,120 Speaker 8: You look in the Midwest. 638 00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:11,800 Speaker 5: So they are feeling pretty good this week and probably 639 00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:15,560 Speaker 5: why Trump wants to consolidate his vote. But you can't 640 00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:19,520 Speaker 5: do that by trying to kick out somebody, particularly if 641 00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:22,080 Speaker 5: you are the chair of the Republican National Committee and 642 00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:23,080 Speaker 5: you are the chair. 643 00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:27,440 Speaker 6: Of that Murdy just on President Biden, Genie, we're about 644 00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:29,560 Speaker 6: to discuss in our next segment the fact that the 645 00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:33,120 Speaker 6: Biden administration has now put a halt on new licenses 646 00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:38,440 Speaker 6: for LNG exports, something that obviously has ramifications for energy markets, 647 00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,200 Speaker 6: potentially the American economy overall. Should we be looking at 648 00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:44,600 Speaker 6: this as anything other than trying to pacify environmentalists in 649 00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:46,560 Speaker 6: the left who is hoping to turn out for him 650 00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:47,240 Speaker 6: in November. 651 00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,920 Speaker 5: Well, you know, I think that is an important constituency 652 00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 5: of his. But I think it also reflects what the 653 00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:57,360 Speaker 5: Biden administration has been trying to do for some time. 654 00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:01,320 Speaker 5: They obviously are working number one towards a strong economy, 655 00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:05,160 Speaker 5: but they recognize the fact that the environment matters enormously 656 00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:07,880 Speaker 5: to all of our futures, and they have long said 657 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,760 Speaker 5: that you can do both. You can have a healthy 658 00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:14,200 Speaker 5: environment and a healthy economy, and they are trying to 659 00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,120 Speaker 5: lead the way on that with some of these new investments. 660 00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,640 Speaker 5: So I do think it is in keeping with what 661 00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,280 Speaker 5: they have been trying to do during a very difficult 662 00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:24,560 Speaker 5: time as they move us out of this pandemic. 663 00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:26,440 Speaker 3: We talked to. 664 00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:30,840 Speaker 2: Heather Bouchet earlier in the broadcast about this, Kayley, and 665 00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:33,600 Speaker 2: she seemed to indicate that the administration is not terribly 666 00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:37,480 Speaker 2: worried about what happens to energy markets snatch gas markets 667 00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,400 Speaker 2: in Europe, specifically, that we have enough to bridge the 668 00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:42,840 Speaker 2: gap for now, but this could become a much bigger 669 00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:43,880 Speaker 2: deal the longer it takes. 670 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:45,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll talk more about that ahead. 671 00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:49,000 Speaker 2: As you mentioned, Rick Davis, Geni Shanzano, many thanks as 672 00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,040 Speaker 2: always for the conversation our signature panel. 673 00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:53,920 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 674 00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:58,239 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already an Apple, Spotify. 675 00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:59,279 Speaker 3: Or wherever you get your podcasts. 676 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,479 Speaker 2: You can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC 677 00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:05,440 Speaker 2: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.