1 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to Trillions. I'm Joel Webber and. 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 2: I'm Eric Belchernas. 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,280 Speaker 1: There's this theme that we've been talking about for a while, Eric, 4 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 1: and you've been wanting to do it. I've been resisting. 5 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 2: So I don't know how many episodes we've done. 6 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 1: Maybe two hundred we should actually count. 7 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 2: And there's probably only like forty categories of ETFs, meaning 8 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 2: we've covered many categories multiple times that we've never covered 9 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 2: this one because because of me. Yeah, well, and I 10 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 2: understand it is arguably one of the more boring sounding categories. 11 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 2: I mean I was talking about I would put it 12 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:48,200 Speaker 2: right up around short duration bonds. 13 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 1: Have you done that one? 14 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 2: We have? Yeah, because money markets, this is municipal bonds. 15 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: Now, hold on, I'm gonna fall asleep. 16 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 2: Before people tune out here. Listen a couple things for 17 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 2: of all, One of the most red analysts in Bloomberg 18 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 2: Intelligence is Eric Kazatski, my colleague. I've known her for 19 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:13,839 Speaker 2: years and he's very colorful writer too, And people really 20 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 2: use Muni's, especially if you're planning a portfolio for a 21 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,759 Speaker 2: real person. The after tax yield on these bonds is great. 22 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 2: I remember interviewing Bogel Jack Bogel and he was a 23 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 2: big Muni guy. He loved Muni's for his portfolio. And 24 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 2: when I look at some of Eric Kazyski's headlines, what 25 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 2: I like about them is they're so tangible. La Fires, 26 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 2: Texas Battleship, JFK Airport, the Hollywood Strike, DeSantis, and Disney. 27 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 2: There are Muni pegs to a lot of stuff that 28 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 2: we love and know. So I think. 29 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 1: America is built on the municipal bonds. 30 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 2: It really is. It runs on Muni's basically. So we 31 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:52,559 Speaker 2: are going to try to. 32 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: Get in other words, a long overdue episode. 33 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:57,279 Speaker 2: We're going to try to make Muni's cool today. Yeah, okay, 34 00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 2: that's our that's our time. I'm going to try to 35 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 2: keep you awake, riveted, and Eric will too. 36 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 1: I'm in, I'm in. Eric has the bigger job, though, 37 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: I'm so ready and joining us on this episode. Eric 38 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 1: Kazatski an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence who's also the co 39 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: host to the podcast Masters of the Universe, this time 40 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 1: on Trillions Muni Land. Eric, Welcome to Trillions. 41 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 3: Hey, I'm happy to be here, and what a setup. 42 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 3: I wasn't sure where that was going at first, but 43 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 3: you guys turned it around at the last minute. Thank you, Eric. 44 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: You know, as baltun is set up here. Long overdue conversation. 45 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 1: So why do investors like municipal bonds? 46 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 3: I mean it's really simple. Do you like paying taxes? 47 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 3: I don't like paying taxes? 48 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: Okay, So why are they so boring? 49 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 3: I think because people are confused by them. But look, 50 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 3: at the end of the day, it's the simplest thing 51 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 3: to understand. Right, Hey, Look, you live somewhere. 52 00:02:57,040 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 2: Has a school. 53 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 3: Undoubtedly that school was built with tax exempt bonds. You 54 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 3: have been to a sports game lately, a concert, Undoubtedly 55 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 3: those have been built with tax free bonds. Airports, roads, bridges. 56 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 3: It's just the easy stuff you see every day that 57 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 3: gets ignored the most. That's really what it comes down to. 58 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 1: Okay, So there's this tax exemption that munieds benefit from. 59 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:20,919 Speaker 1: How does that work and why are they exempt? 60 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 2: Yeah? 61 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 3: I mean, well, so it's been tax law for almost 62 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 3: one hundred years. I mean, the market has been around 63 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 3: that long. But essentially, what you do is the issuer 64 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 3: gets a benefit to borrow at a lower rate, and 65 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 3: that's passed on to the buyers of those bonds and 66 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 3: they get to save the interest that comes in as 67 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 3: income from their federal and state taxes. Now, it doesn't 68 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 3: all work the same. Some states have different laws. But 69 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 3: let's just assume that they're all federally in state tax free. 70 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 3: It's just simple for this conversation. So look, it's a 71 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 3: double benefit, right. The issuers get the benefit of borrowing 72 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 3: lower and the investors get the tax free income. It's 73 00:03:58,280 --> 00:03:59,119 Speaker 3: really as simple as that. 74 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 2: Real quick, Okay, let's just bring one up here. The 75 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 2: I shares California Municipal Bond etf CMF is the ticker it. 76 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 2: I have a yield here of two point eight percent. 77 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 2: So what is the because when I when you talk 78 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 2: un these people talk about after tax yield, what would 79 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 2: be the tax equivalent yield? How much more do you 80 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 2: get if you lived than say California. 81 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 3: It's so you use the role of two here, right, 82 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 3: Just figure in these high tax dates like New York, 83 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 3: New Jersey, California. 84 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: Just double the yield. 85 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 2: You'll probably get pretty close. 86 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,720 Speaker 3: Because you know, the highest tax back in California, you're 87 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:34,040 Speaker 3: looking at like thirteen point three percent. You add in 88 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 3: federal taxes Medicaid, you're up near fifty percent, So five 89 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,839 Speaker 3: point six percent on a taxi equivalent basis. 90 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 2: That's pretty cool. See that they don't put that in 91 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:45,039 Speaker 2: the data need because that's keeping you do. 92 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, Eric, I need you for something else here, which 93 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 1: is why is that taxes in status potentially at risk? 94 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 3: Well, it really comes down to the returning president. He 95 00:04:55,760 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 3: has a mandate in his mind to roll out of 96 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 3: the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. And look, it's going 97 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:05,599 Speaker 3: to cost anywhere three and a half four point six trillion, 98 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:08,359 Speaker 3: I don't know, pick a number, any number, but you 99 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 3: need a way to pay for it. And every election 100 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:13,279 Speaker 3: cycle it comes up that you know, muni bonds are 101 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 3: going to be at risk. And I think it really 102 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 3: comes down to the fact that people assume that those 103 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 3: people who are buying munis are sitting around with top 104 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 3: hats and monocles, just smoking cigars and enjoying all this 105 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 3: tax free income. But if you look at where the 106 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 3: money's going in muni's, I'm sure we're going to touch 107 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 3: on this. It's going to eats, it's going to SMEs. 108 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 1: And these are. 109 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:36,799 Speaker 3: Low cost, low dollar fee structures that are attracting people 110 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 3: not in the highest brackets. So you know, that's really 111 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 3: sort of where the risk comes in. It's going to 112 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:41,840 Speaker 3: impact everyone. 113 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 1: So just to be clear here, nothing is happening yet, 114 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:50,160 Speaker 1: but it's just part of the chatter about the Trump's 115 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 1: tax cuts, which will become a conversation this year since 116 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:56,479 Speaker 1: he's back in the White House and has control of 117 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 1: Congress and those tax cuts are expiring at the end 118 00:05:59,040 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 1: of the year. 119 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:02,840 Speaker 3: Right, Yes, So the Houseways and Means put out a 120 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 3: wish list the fifty pages long, and the union exemption 121 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 3: going away was one of the items on there. But 122 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:10,919 Speaker 3: another thing you need to know about people in munialand 123 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 3: we'd love to be part of the current news cycle, 124 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:14,840 Speaker 3: and this is just another way for us to sort 125 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 3: of pop in there. 126 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 1: Not to be boring and be part of the es. Yeah. 127 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:20,599 Speaker 2: Yes, actually thing I tell people that all the times, 128 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:22,839 Speaker 2: Like you give me a headline, I'll show you the 129 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 2: ETF PEG and I like that too. Eric, I, well, 130 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 2: let's go to La fires. Explain to me the Munich 131 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 2: connection here, because I saw you had a note that. Again, 132 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:34,040 Speaker 2: his notes do really well readership wise. 133 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 3: So yeah, so Los Angeles fire is just another instance 134 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:40,360 Speaker 3: of nature just wreaking havoc on our market. 135 00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: You know. 136 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 3: Look, every year you got hurricane damage in Florida. Inevitably, 137 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,279 Speaker 3: it's hitting areas where you know, people are paying taxes. 138 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 3: Those taxes support general obligation bonds, you know, hospitals, colleges, 139 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 3: things are impacted by these weather events. And unfortunately California 140 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 3: it really sort of got out of control with this 141 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 3: sort of unseasonal fire that took everyone by surprise. By 142 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 3: the numbers, we sort of calculated that there was potentially 143 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 3: about seventy billion of you know, MUNI sort of tangentially. 144 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 1: Related projects at risk. 145 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,559 Speaker 3: What it's actually going to shake out to too early 146 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 3: to tell still, you know, but look, the totality of 147 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 3: the damage would certainly call a lot of people by surprise. 148 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 1: And what does that mean for bondholders? 149 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 3: You know, hopefully nothing right. We want to be benign 150 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 3: and in the background, and we want to sort of 151 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 3: keep on with the you know adage that there's never 152 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 3: been a true MUNI default from an act of God. 153 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 3: We haven't seen one yet. I don't really think you're 154 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 3: going to see one here. It doesn't mean there's not 155 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 3: going to be litigation that's going to be painful, especially 156 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 3: for LA Department of Water and Power. The Water Department 157 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 3: is already smacked with the lawsuit. Not sure how it's 158 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 3: going to play out, but they could have some liability. 159 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 2: Right when has there been defaults? What would cause one? 160 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,559 Speaker 3: Well, I mean you have defaults as far as Puerto Rico, 161 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 3: as far as Detroit, you know, and New York back 162 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 3: in the seventies. Right, it really comes down to bad 163 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 3: fiscal management. Bad fiscal management has caused more issues immuniland 164 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 3: then weather and nature related events at this point. 165 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 2: So do you cover that, Like, do you look at 166 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 2: where maybe the code red situations are, where there's like 167 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 2: total mismanagement of funds. I don't know why I keep 168 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 2: thinking of Illinois, like are they like that? 169 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 3: Your right to think that. Yeah, Look, we try and 170 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 3: turn on the lights and see where the cockroaches are 171 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 3: running as much as possible. But you know the problem 172 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 3: is these are slow burned things, right, Detroit played out 173 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 3: over years. It wasn't a new issue. Puerto Rico, same thing. 174 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,959 Speaker 3: You know, certainly Chicago, Chicago board ed, Illinois. They all 175 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 3: have their problems. The problem is they're able to kick 176 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 3: the can down the road. 177 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 1: You know. 178 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 3: We just try and stay on top of it and 179 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 3: tell investors sort of where the risks are. 180 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 2: So let's talk about practical application. Let's say you have 181 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 2: a munique portion of a portfolio. The two biggest ones 182 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 2: on the market are MUB and vtebs. That's our shares 183 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 2: in Vanguard. Those have like thirty five and forty billion dollars. 184 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 2: They're the studs. Like most categories, it's like the two, 185 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:02,559 Speaker 2: the big two have the top ETF. So should someone 186 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 2: just buy one of those and call it a day, 187 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 2: or like, what does a munich analyst think of those 188 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 2: two sort of big timers. 189 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 3: It's like vanilla ice cream. It's great, it's a fine flavor, 190 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 3: it's a top seller, but like, you can only have 191 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 3: so much of it, right, Everybody wants some variety, and 192 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 3: that's the beauty of the ETF market is that it's 193 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,440 Speaker 3: bringing in a lot of alternative flavors and small boutique 194 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:27,840 Speaker 3: ice cream providers. Let's say you know, MUB and b 195 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 3: TEP are great, right, measured by flows, they are. They're 196 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 3: the biggest creatures, sort of like roaming around Uniland. The 197 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,080 Speaker 3: problem is they miss a big portion of the market. 198 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 3: They're passive, which is not a bad thing, but they 199 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:41,559 Speaker 3: don't invest in hospitals, they don't invest in higher ed 200 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 3: they don't invest in bonds that are subject to alternative 201 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 3: minimum tax. We wrote a note earlier in the year 202 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 3: they miss about eighteen percent of the investable market for 203 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 3: unis just based on their sort of stringing criteria, and 204 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 3: unfortunately that eighteen percent makes up a big portion of 205 00:09:56,800 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 3: returns in every single year. So I think investor are 206 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:07,559 Speaker 3: missing out right. 207 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 2: I remember back I don't know five six years ago, 208 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:14,559 Speaker 2: MUB was the big category leader by far. Then Vanguard 209 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:17,839 Speaker 2: launched one started climbing the charts VTEB, and I remember 210 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,319 Speaker 2: MUB I think was twenty five basis points. Vanguard was 211 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 2: like six or seven, and MUB slashed its fee in 212 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 2: one shot from twenty five to seven. And I thought, 213 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 2: that's why I call it the tyrodome. Jrol. You're the 214 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 2: leader of the category, most volume, most assets, but you 215 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 2: know what's about to happen, and you basically cut off 216 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 2: both legs and an arm. That's it. I've never seen 217 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:44,439 Speaker 2: self cannibalization that great. But there's still number one. 218 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 1: It worked. 219 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 2: I mean, had they not done that, I think vteb's 220 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 2: three four times bigger. So that's also something Eric. Just 221 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 2: before we get to the unique ETFs, the MUNI mutual 222 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 2: funds they're all active, right, There really is not a 223 00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 2: lot passive there. And here you have two ETFs at 224 00:10:59,880 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 2: f five basis points each. How much does that factor 225 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 2: into all the money that's rushed here, Given that most 226 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:08,559 Speaker 2: mutual funds are like, you know, eighty basis points to 227 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:10,240 Speaker 2: maybe one point five percent. 228 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:14,439 Speaker 3: It's factored in a ton When you think about who 229 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:16,720 Speaker 3: the majority of folks are buying this thing, right, you 230 00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 3: have a lot of retail people just directly buying. But 231 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 3: it's also part of platform investing. 232 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:21,320 Speaker 1: Right. 233 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 3: So if I'm an RIA, I'm charging one percent on 234 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,880 Speaker 3: a portfolio, and I can go from let's say, splitting 235 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 3: a thirty basis point fee with a mutual fund and 236 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 3: keeping seventy to keeping ninety five and I have fives 237 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 3: you know for investing in MUB or VTAB. That sounds 238 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 3: much better to me, right, And my clients are probably 239 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:42,720 Speaker 3: like none the worse off as far as exposure. But 240 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:46,839 Speaker 3: I think again, two different styles, right, If you're worried 241 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,599 Speaker 3: about performance, you may not want to go dout on 242 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 3: the road. If you're focusing on just acid allocation and fees, 243 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 3: they're certainly the most attractive thing out there. 244 00:11:56,120 --> 00:12:00,439 Speaker 1: Okay, So hot sauce has come for every ETF I 245 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 1: can think of, what does hot sauce in muni bonds 246 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:03,960 Speaker 1: look like? 247 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 2: So, you know, one thing that was launched very recently 248 00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 2: was Spider has target Maturity Muni bonds, So for example 249 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 2: at Spider SSGA MY twenty twenty eight, so that's a 250 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 2: niche version, so that that means all the bonds mature 251 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 2: in that year. That way you can like time your 252 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 2: duration a little bit. We've seen some other things launched 253 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 2: like tax aware muni bonds, a lot of short duration 254 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 2: muni bonds, high yield, I know high yield. Eric was 255 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 2: one that back when COVID happened. Eric and I talked 256 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:39,839 Speaker 2: a lot because there was NTF HYD which is the 257 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 2: van k hig yield muni and this thing traded it 258 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:47,560 Speaker 2: like twenty to thirty percent discounts to NAV. And of 259 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 2: all the bond ETFs, this was the worst in terms 260 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 2: of it obviously held the least liquid stuff that its 261 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 2: price was deviating that much from the NAV, although the 262 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 2: NAV was based on old bond prices, so it was stale. 263 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:02,560 Speaker 2: And it's interesting that ETF, even though it was so, 264 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 2: it turned into a closed then fund essentially it's took 265 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:09,320 Speaker 2: in more assets since then and the volumes the same, 266 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 2: So it seems like people know how to roll with that. 267 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 2: But Eric, what's the liquidity like in this scene? Like, 268 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 2: is a high old MUNI bond etf like something that's 269 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 2: for normal people or is that something that really just 270 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 2: traders should use. No. 271 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,720 Speaker 3: I think there's a lot of liquidity, right. Look, what 272 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 3: happened in the early days of COVID, I feel like 273 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:31,560 Speaker 3: is a complete anomaly, right, And I think the market's 274 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:34,280 Speaker 3: a lot more prepared from a market structure standpoint than 275 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:37,200 Speaker 3: it was in twenty twenty. A lot more things have changed. 276 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 3: So let's say we had a sharp sell off again, 277 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:41,760 Speaker 3: I think the folks who are running hid if I 278 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 3: was them, I would imagine they have a much deeper 279 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:47,960 Speaker 3: ig basket of bonds to throw over the side of 280 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 3: the boat. If there's some sort of like sharp correction 281 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 3: then there was back then, right, just to sort of 282 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 3: like hedge against that. But you know, look, I think 283 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:58,440 Speaker 3: the fact that this market is really sort of like 284 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 3: if you think about it in terms of the the 285 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 3: you know, the fun companies are going to go to 286 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 3: where the puck is right, and they're all skating toward 287 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:09,920 Speaker 3: high yield active, you know, sort of restructuring the old 288 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 3: mutual funds, wrapping them in an ETF wrapper. 289 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:13,680 Speaker 1: That really is sort of the. 290 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:16,079 Speaker 3: Play of the day when it comes to this dimmunity 291 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:18,679 Speaker 3: space right now, and we're seeing sort of that play out, 292 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 3: and the fact they're all crowding into the high yield space, 293 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 3: it means that they still see an opportunity there. What's 294 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 3: going to be interesting to see if the market responds 295 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 3: from an issuing standpoint to sort of keep the lights 296 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 3: on and keep the supply going to feed all these 297 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 3: new projects. 298 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 2: It's interesting, Joe, one hundred and forty one billion in 299 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 2: this category, twenty three billion active. But active makes up 300 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 2: the majority of the number of ETF So, in other words, 301 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 2: active is a lot of the new launches, a lot 302 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 2: of the supply. 303 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 1: And we know that active has been coming for fixed 304 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 1: income forever, so that's not surprising, maybe not forever for 305 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 1: the past couple of years. As Hot Sauce goes, I 306 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 1: don't think that that's very spicy, Eric. 307 00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean hyd I'm not sure it 308 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 2: gets much spicier than that. There's no leveraged Munich and 309 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 2: this is icy as meaning land gets yeah, And I 310 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 2: think that's part of why sometimes we don't look at 311 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 2: it too much, like it never jumps away. That's why 312 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 2: HYD at that time I called the Canary and the 313 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 2: coal mine because it was trading at the deepest discount. 314 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 2: But one thing I thought about this space, Eric, is 315 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 2: this idea of like how to jazz it up a little, 316 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 2: because when Eric talks about and his headlines, it gets 317 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 2: my brain going better than when I look at the 318 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 2: names of the ETFs. For example, how come they don't 319 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 2: come out with hospitals and schools and because. 320 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 1: In my opinion, this is I'm kind of into those 321 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 1: reality ESG the things I know. 322 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like it's like better than ESG because like 323 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 2: I'm gonna invest in this and I literally know it's 324 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 2: going to go to stuff that I like and want 325 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 2: to support, versus ESG where it's like, don't you know, 326 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 2: let's take out this stock even though it's not that 327 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 2: bad whatever. I don't get why they don't want to 328 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 2: play with the names focus on the tangible, yeah, and 329 00:15:56,480 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 2: do more tangible stuff and thematic. It's weird to they 330 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 2: haven't done much. 331 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: They're like by la, like, yeah, it seems like you 332 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 1: could get behind that. 333 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, help with la exactly. 334 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 3: I don't disagree, but you know, it's interesting. Someone probably 335 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 3: paid a lot of money to come up with these 336 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 3: really snazzy tickers on some of these, and unless you 337 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 3: know exactly what they're doing, you don't get a lot 338 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 3: one of the ones I'll point to and we talk 339 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 3: about hot sauce. I mean, look, I disagree. I think 340 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 3: there is leverage to be had in the UNI ets 341 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 3: space and RTAI is a perfect example of that. Right, 342 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 3: you know, when rates were jumping up, this is one 343 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 3: of the worst performers. 344 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 2: Rates eased off a bit last year, it. 345 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 3: Was one of the best performers, and it's one of 346 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 3: the most levered muni ETFs out there. One year returns 347 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 3: almost eleven percent. 348 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 2: Okay, so this is just so people don't play the 349 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 2: name of it, because I actually didn't know this one 350 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 2: rare view tax advantage incoming to you. Yeah, that name 351 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 2: is boring. I gotta be honest with you. And you're 352 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 2: saying this has leverage in it. Yeah how much? What percent? Right? 353 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 3: I think it's up here, like thirty to thirty five percent, 354 00:16:57,880 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 3: just sort of back of the envelope. 355 00:16:59,080 --> 00:16:59,840 Speaker 1: I'd have to double check that. 356 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, the yield is five percent. That's pretty especially if 357 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:04,679 Speaker 2: you get an after tax yield of a little more 358 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 2: than that. 359 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:06,199 Speaker 1: So there is spice. 360 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 2: Yes, okay, Like I said, it's it's all relative, right, 361 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:11,640 Speaker 2: This is spicy for. 362 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 1: The ghost pepper of New Zealand. 363 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 2: Yes, Oh my god, let me look at the volatility here. Yeah. 364 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 2: By the way, the volatility is still half the S 365 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:23,439 Speaker 2: and P. That's spicy over there. Yeah, it's like a 366 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 2: kiddie ride in the equities. 367 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 1: Yes, okay, Eric, I want to bring this back to 368 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 1: this threat that seems kind of existential. Like if already 369 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:39,439 Speaker 1: it's really hard to care about Muni Land for a 370 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:43,919 Speaker 1: certain investor or, at least one name Joel, and this 371 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 1: taxes emption goes away, how how existential does that make 372 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 1: Uni Land? 373 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 3: Think about it this way. You know, state and local 374 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 3: governments still need to finance billions of dollars a year 375 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:59,600 Speaker 3: to keep the lights on right, keep things in good repair, 376 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 3: and so if the exemption went away, it just means 377 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:04,919 Speaker 3: they're going to be borrowing in the tax will market 378 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:07,240 Speaker 3: at higher rates. I don't think they're gonna be borrowing 379 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 3: where like Apple or Microsoft issue probably somewhere below that, 380 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 3: but significantly more than they are now. And guess what 381 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,879 Speaker 3: they're passing that cost on to you. They're passing that 382 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:18,320 Speaker 3: cost on to mister balchiunis the passing it on to me, 383 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,120 Speaker 3: you know? And I think that's the underappreciated point here, right. 384 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 3: We all sort of benefit from that collective subsidy that's 385 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 3: being issued for the top hat and monocle crowd if 386 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 3: we sort of want to go back to that analogy, 387 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 3: but we're all sort of getting something for that as well, 388 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:37,639 Speaker 3: and it's less taxes than it could be. And I 389 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:39,399 Speaker 3: think that's sort of the point to really sort of 390 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 3: head home with those who are making the decisions in Washington. 391 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 2: Man. 392 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:45,920 Speaker 1: The lobbying, uh feels like it's going to be very 393 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 1: allowed on this one. It's gonna it's gonna be an 394 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,680 Speaker 1: interesting thing to watch, especially at this moment that we've 395 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 1: got a Magna crowd that's taken over uh, you know, 396 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:56,919 Speaker 1: the Republican wing and and you know, something like this 397 00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:00,280 Speaker 1: seems like it'll be an interesting topic of cover station 398 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:04,480 Speaker 1: in the year to come. Yeah, Balchinus, any any final thoughts. 399 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 2: No, I just wanted to kind of ask Eric as 400 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 2: an analyst who sees all these ETFs coming out, because 401 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:13,640 Speaker 2: sometimes he does cover the ETF side of things. Are 402 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:15,719 Speaker 2: there any sort of out of the box ETF besides 403 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 2: RTAI that that sort of stand out to you? Is 404 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 2: is interesting or something that that you might have designed 405 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 2: yourself if you were initire. 406 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 3: You know one that sort of comes to mind, and 407 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:31,400 Speaker 3: it's selfishly, it's a shameless plug for Masters of the Universe. 408 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,679 Speaker 3: It's someone we had on not long ago. You know, 409 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 3: Rockefeller Asset Management, and they have a new fund RMOP 410 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 3: and you know what they're doing is they're getting really 411 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,199 Speaker 3: down the weeds on the credit side of things. So 412 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 3: like twenty twenty one percent of their asset allocation is 413 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 3: in charter schools, which is sort of one of the 414 00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 3: I would say most esoteric areas of community space, you know, 415 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 3: and then there are other expert as airports. Right, So 416 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 3: I really have a blend of this really niche credit 417 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,440 Speaker 3: space and then something everybody's using. And I really sort 418 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 3: of like that approach, right, Eric. 419 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 1: I've got one final question for you. It's a question 420 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 1: that we often ask on trillions at the end. What 421 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 1: is your favorite ETF ticker? 422 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:19,160 Speaker 3: My favorite one it has to be hid I mean, 423 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 3: and I only say that because, look, I mean, I 424 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 3: don't want to give them a two heart of a time, 425 00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 3: but they were woefully underprepared for COVID, and I think 426 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,159 Speaker 3: it really played out in real time. But you know, 427 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 3: I think the thing is it brought so much attention 428 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 3: to the fact that there were high yield muni tfs, 429 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 3: and I feel like that has sort of, you know, 430 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 3: in one way, led to the growth of all these 431 00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 3: new products coming online right now. 432 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 2: And let me say one thing HYD in COVID to 433 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 2: me is the ticker I bring up all the time 434 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,119 Speaker 2: Joel to explain that if you put private equity were 435 00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 2: private credit in an ETF and it's like fifteen to 436 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,639 Speaker 2: twenty percent of the fund, that let's just say that 437 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:59,720 Speaker 2: that person is illiquid, it probably still wouldn't be trading 438 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 2: it the discount that was. In other words, I think 439 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:07,520 Speaker 2: HYD shows that you can have people have a hybrid 440 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 2: closed in fund ETF situation, they'd still prefer that then 441 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:13,679 Speaker 2: going to the mutual fund or interval fund. That's my 442 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 2: theory on this and why it's okay and this will work. 443 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 2: I use HID all the time. 444 00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:20,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, HYD had to suffer so we can have nice 445 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 3: things today. 446 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 2: Yes, I like that. I may steal that for a headline. 447 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:30,240 Speaker 1: All right, Eric Kazatski, thanks for making munis not so boring. Yeah, 448 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:32,119 Speaker 1: thanks for having me and for being a guest on Trillions. 449 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 1: Long overdue, we'll have you back. Thanks for listening to 450 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 1: Trillions until next time. You can find us on the 451 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever 452 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:49,920 Speaker 1: else you'd like to listen. We'd love to hear from you. 453 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:53,600 Speaker 1: We're on Twitter. I'm at Joel Webbers Show. He's at 454 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:59,679 Speaker 1: Eric Baultness. This episode of Trillions was produced by Magnus Hendrickson. Bye. 455 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:05,439 Speaker 2: This is the this is