1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:04,640 Speaker 1: Be afraid, be very afraid. But of what what are 2 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,799 Speaker 1: the top risks for twenty twenty six? It's Armstrong, you 3 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 1: Getty extra. 4 00:00:09,440 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 2: Large because four hours simply. 5 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 1: This is Armstrong and Getty extra large. Well, this is 6 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:21,480 Speaker 1: always fun. We look forward to it like a kid 7 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: looks forward to Christmas. Talking to Ian Bremmer, president of 8 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: the Eurasia Group, about the top risks of the year 9 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six looks to be Harry. Indeed, welcome 10 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 1: I and how are you hey? 11 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:33,839 Speaker 2: Good to talk to you, guys, happen to here? 12 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 3: First of all, to Joe, I like this list too, 13 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:38,839 Speaker 3: but you look forward to it like you did as 14 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 3: a kid to Christmas. 15 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:42,520 Speaker 1: That seems a little weird. It's marketing hyperbole. 16 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 3: Secondly, before we get into the Listy and I was 17 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 3: going to ask you about Nicole. 18 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 2: All the time, and you know and love fossil fuels 19 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 2: in this country. 20 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,239 Speaker 1: So yeah, it's not beyond me, with a couple of 21 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 1: drinks in me to beat up them all Santa, out 22 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: of resentment for you know, my disappointments. 23 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 3: Before we get to the very cerebral list, I've wanted 24 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 3: to ask somebody about this. They do this on Network 25 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 3: television all the time, and I saw it happen to 26 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:06,040 Speaker 3: you a couple of times where they tease you and 27 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 3: you're sitting on a couch or in a green room 28 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 3: or something like that, and they say, come it to 29 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 3: the next segment, we'll have Ian Bremmer, and then they 30 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 3: put the camera on you. Is that as uncomfortable as 31 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 3: it looks like? Am I supposed to smile or wave 32 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 3: or give a thumbs up? Or what am I supposed 33 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:18,040 Speaker 3: to do here? 34 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,679 Speaker 2: It was most recent on CBS Morning News with you know, 35 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 2: Gail and Company, and it was a shockingly long tease. 36 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 2: And when I say shockingly long tease, I mean there 37 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 2: was no fluffing involved in this, right, It's just me 38 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 2: looking down the can and I don't know. I mean, 39 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,960 Speaker 2: I gave it my best stare. I mean I thought 40 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 2: it was. I don't know if you guys were turned on. 41 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 1: No, it's tough. It's a tough situation. I don't know 42 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: what you're supposed to do, but you handle riki Arkad. 43 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 2: Yeah. 44 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: TV people are good at that. We're we're ugly audio guys, 45 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: and so occasionally though we've been in TV settings where 46 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 1: they say, all right, say that line. Then smile, hold it, 47 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 1: hold it, hold it, and we're like, and you know it, 48 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 1: the smile turns into a grimace, turns I'm weird. You know, 49 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 1: I've taken a blow to the head expression. But yeah, exactlyway. 50 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 3: So we are super into AI stuff around here. So 51 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 3: my first question off the bat about risk eight AI 52 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 3: eats its users. I was just reading Bloomberg's prediction that 53 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 3: companies mostly are still going to be all in on AI. 54 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:24,519 Speaker 3: How do you feel it's going to play out this year. 55 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 2: I believe they will be all in on AI, but 56 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 2: there's going to be a lot more pressure to commercialize it, 57 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 2: to make money, to provide returns to all these shareholders 58 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:35,799 Speaker 2: with enormous amounts of money they're being spent on these 59 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 2: large language models only getting more complex with more data, 60 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 2: more chips requirements, more energy requirements. And I think that's 61 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:45,359 Speaker 2: fine for a lot of companies that are doing business 62 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 2: to business, that are doing industrial purposes, defense purposes. But 63 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 2: for the companies that are selling AI to consumers, they're 64 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:58,239 Speaker 2: going to need to make profit any way they can, 65 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 2: and that means testing these things real time on society, 66 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 2: on us, on our kids, And I think that's actually 67 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 2: quite a dangerous risk for our political system and for 68 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 2: our mental well being. 69 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 3: Well, I noticed we talked about this right before the 70 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 3: end of the year, open Altman announcing that they're going 71 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 3: to like focus on the chat GPT, the thing that 72 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 3: people kind of like and not so much to get into, 73 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 3: you know, artificial general intelligence as much. 74 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: So that's what you're talking about. 75 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 2: It is, And you know, we all know that social media, 76 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 2: when they decided they need to start making a profit, 77 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 2: it became a much less community oriented, much more addiction 78 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 2: and engagement oriented. Well, AI is a hell of a 79 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 2: lot more capable at programming us, at changing our behavior, 80 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 2: making us believe that we're talking to people when actually 81 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 2: we're talking to things that have no affect and are 82 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 2: just trying to get the outcomes they want it wants 83 00:03:57,120 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 2: out of us. There are people like that in society. 84 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 2: We call them so sociopaths. We don't want to be 85 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 2: around them, right, And yet when it comes to AI, 86 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 2: we're like, hey, go for it, train it on us, 87 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 2: and that that just seems like it is not destined 88 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 2: to go well, especially because the race is so well funded, 89 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 2: it's so fast, and it's not effectively regulated at all. 90 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 2: Because we all just want to win. We just want 91 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:24,359 Speaker 2: to We think it's so amazing. We want this to 92 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 2: go faster and faster. And I do get the fact that, 93 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 2: you know, whenever we talk about government involvement, we also 94 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 2: talk about red tape, and we talk about entrepreneurs not 95 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 2: being able to do the things they're great at. But 96 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 2: here we are talking about public safety and we should care. 97 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 2: We care about that with vaccines, we test those first. 98 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:46,159 Speaker 2: We care about it with GMO foods. But somehow when 99 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 2: it involves like actually programming our minds, it no longer matters. 100 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 1: Wow, I'm glad to hear you say that. We're big 101 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: fans of Peter Bergosi' around here, who's written extensively about 102 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 1: the effects of technology and social media on kids especially, 103 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:04,840 Speaker 1: And I just think giving super powers to the sort 104 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: of technology we've already decided is absolutely pathological, especially for youngsters, 105 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: seems incredibly dangerous. But there it is on your list 106 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 1: of you know, risks. 107 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's also showing up in risk number two 108 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 2: in a very different way that I was. 109 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 1: Just about to ask about that. Yeah, I hit it. 110 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:26,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, because here you've got the Americans doubling down 111 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 2: on being the strongest petron state in the world, thirteen 112 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 2: point five million barrels a day of oil production, plus 113 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 2: you know Venezuela, and that the largest oil reserves proven 114 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 2: in the world, all of which is great for American 115 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 2: power in the United States is refusing to keep investing 116 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 2: in solar and wind and batteries and all the things 117 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 2: that are getting much cheaper in terms of energy because 118 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:55,720 Speaker 2: those are woke climate energies. Well, the Chinese aren't particularly woke, 119 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 2: but they do know that they need as much energy 120 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 2: as possible, and they are investing massive in the electric stack, 121 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:05,239 Speaker 2: and they're becoming an electro state while we're a petro state. 122 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 2: The only problem is the electro state is becoming a 123 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 2: lot cheaper at producing electricity every year. So we're going 124 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 2: out there selling twentieth century oil, gas and coal to 125 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,840 Speaker 2: countries and they're going out there selling twenty first century 126 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 2: energy infrastructure to countries. And who's going to be better 127 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 2: at powering the AI Who's going to be better at 128 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 2: feeding their people? And the answer is the Chinese. That's 129 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 2: not a position the Americans should be in. 130 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:34,600 Speaker 1: You mentioned the term the electric stack. Help us understand 131 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 1: that what is that? 132 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 2: It's everything that is necessary to produce huge amounts of 133 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 2: electricity that is powering our economy. So again, it's nuclear, 134 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 2: it's wind, it's solar, its batteries, and it's all the 135 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 2: infrastructure and the critical minerals that go into that and 136 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 2: the supply chain, the processing all around the world. The 137 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:58,280 Speaker 2: Chinese have been investing in that assiduously for decades now, 138 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 2: in the United States has not. That's when Trump met 139 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 2: with Shijinping. There was such a concern about critical minerals 140 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 2: because the Chinese were capable of shutting them off to 141 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 2: the US and therefore shutting down American corporations and factories. 142 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 3: That story that came out right before the end of 143 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 3: the year, with China building that just ginormous. The world's 144 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 3: never seen anything like it. Ability to produce electricity got 145 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 3: a lot of attention. 146 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 2: That's right, so much more than the Americans are actually 147 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 2: bringing to market every year, and that's not something that 148 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 2: the US is prepared politically to actually compete with at 149 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 2: this point. 150 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 3: So then how does that fit in with Risk seven 151 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 3: China's deflation trap? I mean, can they continue to make 152 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 3: these kind of decisions with their economy and the situation 153 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 3: it's in. 154 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, the ordering of the risks is meant in terms 155 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 2: of impact, likelihood and imminence, So seven is a lot 156 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 2: lower than two. And the issue here is not that 157 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 2: deflation doesn't matter. They've had ten quarters of deflation sequentially. 158 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 2: That's a lot, and they don't have consumer demand and 159 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 2: they got massive corporate debt and they're not really willing 160 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 2: to make the stimulus bet to change that. So what's 161 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 2: happening is China is exporting their problems. They're manufacturing an 162 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 2: enormous amount, very cheaply involution the competition is the way 163 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:22,679 Speaker 2: that's called domestically, and that's created a one trillion dollar 164 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 2: surplus that they've exported all over the world in twenty 165 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 2: twenty five. That number will go up in twenty twenty six. 166 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 2: So it will cause some backlash and that will undermine 167 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:34,719 Speaker 2: China's position with some countries, even as they have all 168 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 2: these cheap goods and cheap energy that countries will want. 169 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 2: But it is a much lower order risk that the 170 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:44,199 Speaker 2: Chinese are capable of both managing and kicking down the 171 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 2: road than the US versus China energy risk, which is 172 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 2: a lot bigger at stakes and a lot more gent. 173 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: So just for your edifit case. Yeah, Well, it's interesting 174 00:08:56,760 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 1: that China is both undeniably an awesome power and a 175 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: highly highly troubled economy in society at the same time. 176 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 1: But both are true. So I know some of your 177 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: risks are pretty Trump US politics oriented, but we talk 178 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 1: about those so much. We were kind of excited to 179 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 1: talk to you about the things we talk about a 180 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 1: little less, if that's okay with you. I mean, for instance, 181 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 1: Europe under siege and Russia's second front, boy, the state 182 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:30,959 Speaker 1: of Europe. We could go on and on about that. 183 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: What do you see as risks there? 184 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 2: Well, you've got to bring Trump in and the United 185 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 2: short States in here, because it turns out that the 186 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 2: Europeans for decades had been making a big bet that 187 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:46,080 Speaker 2: the United States would continue to support collective security in 188 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 2: the Transatlantic space, would continue to support free trade, rule 189 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 2: of law, and the promotion of democracy. And of course 190 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 2: the United States is not doing that, and Trump is 191 00:09:57,040 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 2: not the driver of it, but he is certainly a symptom. 192 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 2: He as a benefit sherry, and he's an accelerant and 193 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 2: that is causing a massive problem for Europe. Number one, 194 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:08,319 Speaker 2: because Trump no longer wants to support Ukraine. He's having 195 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 2: the Europeans spend all the money doing it, and you know, 196 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 2: to Trump's credit, frankly, taxpayers are no longer paying for that. 197 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 2: But also the Greenland situation also Trump's saying he doesn't 198 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 2: want a strong EU. He wants to support the eurosceptic 199 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 2: parties that want to bring the Europeans apart, like the 200 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 2: AfD in Germany and the National Rally in France and 201 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:32,720 Speaker 2: Reform Party FORAGE in the UK. And all of that 202 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 2: is happening after the Europeans have not sent on defense. 203 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 2: They don't have high productivity, they don't have the tech companies, 204 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:42,679 Speaker 2: they're not really growing. So they've got a great social 205 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 2: contract that takes care of the people, but they can't 206 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 2: afford it, and they matter less to the United States 207 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 2: than they used to. So the Americans go into Venezuela 208 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 2: and they take out Maduro, and the Europeans are all 209 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 2: privately saying, oh my god, this is legal, this is 210 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 2: better of love. But what do they do publicly? They 211 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 2: don't say that they we're monitoring the situation because they 212 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 2: don't actually have the power to do very much about it. 213 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 2: And that's a big problem for your world. 214 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:10,080 Speaker 1: And Russia's second front is your risk number five? What's 215 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:10,679 Speaker 1: that all about? 216 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 2: Well, the fact that all of this is happening while 217 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 2: the Russians see that the Americans are not willing to 218 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 2: hit them hard, They're willing to hit the Ukrainians hard 219 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 2: because the Ukrainians are weaker. That's the best way to 220 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 2: get the Ukrainians to capitulate and end the war in 221 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 2: Trump's view, Well, Russia sees that they know they don't 222 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 2: have to stop, and that gives them more space to 223 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 2: escalate in their backyard. The way Trump is escalating in 224 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 2: his backyard, Well, what does that mean. It doesn't mean 225 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 2: tanks into Poland, but how about weather balloons into Lithuania? 226 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 2: How a drones into Poland and Romania. How about Russian 227 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 2: ships dragging anchor and destroying fiber optic cables in the 228 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 2: North Sea. How about all the money they're spending on 229 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 2: all these people inside the frontline NATO countries to engage 230 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:59,199 Speaker 2: in espionage and destruction of critical infrastructure and even assassination attempts, 231 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:02,320 Speaker 2: as we saw against the CEO of the largest German 232 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 2: defense company last year. Russians are escalating that and that 233 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 2: is a hybrid war that NATO frontline states will increasingly 234 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 2: respond to and it's a lot more dangerous for the 235 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:15,320 Speaker 2: world than the war going on, which is largely contained 236 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 2: at this point between Russian and Ukraine. 237 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:22,200 Speaker 3: Well, a lot of those things you just described, drone 238 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 3: or parachute or whatever, could certainly be described as attacks 239 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 3: if you wanted to, And then an attack on one 240 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 3: is an attack on all. With the NATO countries, do 241 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:36,679 Speaker 3: you think that holds if one of these countries is 242 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 3: attacked by Russia, would we honor that Article five? 243 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 2: I think that the Europeans are unconvinced that it would. 244 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 2: I think that it is a very big difference between 245 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 2: sending in a whole bunch of tanks and invading a 246 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,320 Speaker 2: country and doing all the stuff that we just talked about, 247 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 2: which are clearly attacks. But it's harder to say that 248 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 2: you're at war. And the Russians are very aware of that. 249 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 2: You saw that the Danish Prime Minister just in the 250 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 2: last twenty four hours said that if Greenland is invaded 251 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:12,079 Speaker 2: by the US, that would be the end of NATO. Well, sure, 252 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 2: but Greenland is not going to be invaded by the 253 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 2: United States. They're not going to send in the airborne. 254 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 2: What they're going to do is affect local elections and 255 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 2: spend a bunch of money, and some of it'll be 256 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:24,480 Speaker 2: over it, some of it'll be covert, some of the public, 257 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 2: some of it'll be private sectors. On'll be the Trump family, 258 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 2: that kind of stuff. And is that going to destroy NATO? 259 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:32,200 Speaker 2: How do you respond to that? I mean, this is 260 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:36,080 Speaker 2: the playbook, right, is this gray war that is, you know, 261 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 2: sort of under the surface. It's not sending an American 262 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 2: bombers and that's a lot harder responding to Ian. 263 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 1: My final question for what it's worth is I was 264 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 1: reading a bit of Risk number ten, the water Weapon, 265 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,439 Speaker 1: which was interesting, and I was looking at the chart 266 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 1: of the most you know, water starved places on Earth, 267 00:13:55,600 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 1: and that included, of course, large swaths of Africa. I 268 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:03,840 Speaker 1: was a little surprised that there wasn't more emphasis on Africa, 269 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 1: as it is so big, so populous, There's so much 270 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 1: wealth there, much of it untapped, and so much instability. 271 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 1: What's your quick take on Africa going forward? 272 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 2: The big piece there was the Sahel because that's where 273 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 2: you see isis like organizations becoming a lot more powerful, 274 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 2: The so called Coup Belt of Africa, where a swath 275 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 2: right across north Central Africa, all these countries that have 276 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 2: had coups and have no effective governance whatsoever, and a 277 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 2: lot of Islamic radicalism is emerging and no resources to 278 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 2: speak of. There are certainly parts of Africa that have 279 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 2: a lot more money, but they are really tech sparked. 280 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 2: They are electricity starved, and those are the tools that 281 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 2: you need to unlock the human capital of a billion 282 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 2: people and make them participate in the global economy. So 283 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 2: we've got to electrify Africa and then we have to 284 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 2: get these people access to new tools, to new technologies, 285 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 2: and that is happening much more slowly than it needs to. 286 00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 3: So before we let Ian Bremmer go, we got to 287 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 3: ask you about number one, obviously, US political revolution. 288 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 1: What are you talking about there? 289 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 2: I'm saying that you've got a president that believes that 290 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 2: the political system was weaponized against him by the Democrats 291 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 2: in the US, that that's why you had unprecedented two 292 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 2: impeachments and all of these felony charges and convictions and 293 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 2: even an assassination attempt to And whether or not you 294 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 2: agree with that, he believes his supporters believe that that 295 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 2: means that with urgency they must weaponize this US system 296 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 2: against the Democrats, the administrative state, the power ministries like 297 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 2: the Department of Justice and the FBI, and and the 298 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 2: checks and balances on the president. And I expect that 299 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 2: Trump will not succeed in this revolution, but he is 300 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 2: certainly trying his best, and that is leading to significant 301 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 2: norms and institutional checks being broken pretty much every day. 302 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 2: Since the United States is the most powerful country in 303 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 2: the world, that kind of political turmoril eternally, especially because 304 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 2: it'll have long term consequences in the United States and globally, 305 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 2: has to be your top risk. 306 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: I really enjoyed your comparison of Trump with FDR, another 307 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 1: great norms breaker in American history. That was thought provoking. 308 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 2: I thought it was important because he's the most revolutionary 309 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 2: president in history. So you look at okay, well who 310 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 2: did more? And you know, FDR tried to break norms 311 00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 2: and he failed. His big efforts to go outside the system, 312 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 2: the effort to pack the court from nine to fifteen, 313 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 2: he couldn't do. The effort to purge the Democratic Party 314 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 2: of all those that weren't loyal to him, he failed 315 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 2: at and he ultimately had to get the New Deal 316 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 2: and the expansion of the executive He had to do 317 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 2: that through the legislative process, and so there were dramatic 318 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 2: transformations of how powerful the US government was. But the 319 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 2: checks and balances actually became stronger, not weaker after FDR. 320 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 2: In the case of Trump, of course, it's very, very 321 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 2: different from that. Everything he has focused on is an 322 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 2: effort to ensure that the presidency operates above checks and 323 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 2: balances and above rule of law. 324 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 1: So this has got nothing to do with your risks. 325 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 3: But I wonder what your thoughts are on it, because 326 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 3: I think about it a lot when Trump. I just 327 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:14,680 Speaker 3: I was just doing the math the other day, and 328 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:16,200 Speaker 3: my oldest son is going to be able to vote 329 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 3: in the twenty eight presidential election, and I can't believe that. 330 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 3: But when Trump leaves the scene, are we going to 331 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 3: go back to anything like the olden days? 332 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 1: Or is this just our going to be this way 333 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 1: for a while. 334 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:32,679 Speaker 2: I don't think Trump is the cause of this. I 335 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 2: think he's a symptom. I think he's a beneficiary, and 336 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:38,120 Speaker 2: I think he's clearly an accelerant. But if you look 337 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 2: at the demands from average Americans who thought that their 338 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 2: elites their leaders, not just in politics, but in media 339 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 2: and in corporates and banks and others, universities that they 340 00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:56,439 Speaker 2: were doing very well, but at their expense, and running 341 00:17:56,440 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 2: these forever wars on the backs of the poor and disenfranchised, 342 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 2: and engaging in foreign free trade and globalism, and exporting 343 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:07,160 Speaker 2: labor on the backs of them, and letting in all 344 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,960 Speaker 2: these immigrants on the backs of them. However much you do, 345 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 2: WO don't agree with those outcomes. These things have been 346 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:14,639 Speaker 2: coming for decades and they've not been addressed. It's not 347 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 2: been a dressed by the Democrats effectively or the Republicans affective. 348 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 3: I agree with you, and that's how you get Trump. 349 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:20,679 Speaker 3: That's how you get Bernie. That's how you get the 350 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 3: Tea Party. 351 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:22,399 Speaker 1: A lot of that. I was going to say, it 352 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,640 Speaker 1: hasn't been addressed in France or Germany either. 353 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 2: They've been addressed badly in France and Germany too. At 354 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:30,639 Speaker 2: least the United States, though it hasn't addressed it, and 355 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 2: the trust and legitimacy isn't there. At least you've had growth, 356 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,439 Speaker 2: and growth helps, right if you're going to have a 357 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 2: poor social contract, at least if boats are rising, and 358 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:46,120 Speaker 2: you know, but an affordability crisis makes it harder stagnant 359 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,439 Speaker 2: wages makes it harder. And you know, the one thing 360 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 2: that Trump has been very popular, of course, is no 361 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 2: new wars. And here you talk about Iran, you talk 362 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:57,239 Speaker 2: about Venezuela, and yes, bombs are flying, but that's not 363 00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:01,640 Speaker 2: what people. Americans aren't angry and bombs flying. American kids 364 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 2: love shooters, come on, that's what they spend all their 365 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 2: time doing. But they don't want you to send them 366 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 2: into the ship. And that is what Trump is not doing. 367 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 2: In fact, I think if the United States were required 368 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 2: to send troops to Venezuela, I bet he'd go the 369 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 2: Russian route and he'd send mercenaries because he really doesn't 370 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 2: want to send American men and women into harms. 371 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 1: Way interesting, always stimulating. Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group 372 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: Eurasia Group's Top Risks for twenty twenty six. Ian always 373 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 1: appreciate the timeless talk again. 374 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 2: Soon that great talk to you guys, be good like. 375 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 3: So that's interesting and I absolutely agree with him and 376 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 3: not the first people who have come up with this 377 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:45,560 Speaker 3: that the Times you know called for Trump more than 378 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:48,920 Speaker 3: he made the Times you know, and Bernie too. Bernie 379 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 3: fits into that obviously with a lot of the same 380 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 3: complaints and gripes, and if the Democratic Party hadn't intervened, 381 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 3: he would have been their nominee a couple of different times. 382 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 3: So it's not going to end with Trump leaving the scene. 383 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:07,800 Speaker 3: But what I wonder is we have a people are 384 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:10,680 Speaker 3: upset about the elites and the way things are working 385 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:12,720 Speaker 3: and working class people and a lot of stuff. Now, 386 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 3: way do we have a giant economic crisis, which we 387 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 3: absolutely could. 388 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:22,600 Speaker 1: Have given our levels of spending beyond our means. 389 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,919 Speaker 3: I think it's inevitable, right, and the unsettled nature of 390 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,119 Speaker 3: the world and everything like that, we hit a really 391 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 3: really tough economic point. 392 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:34,680 Speaker 1: Who knows where our politics go at that time? Right, right? 393 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,640 Speaker 1: And I would argue that the Trump to your question 394 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:39,720 Speaker 1: about whether we go back to the good old days? 395 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 1: Will know is the answer to that. And I know 396 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 1: you know that. But the Trump situation is so unique, 397 00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:51,159 Speaker 1: because Trump is so unique, These times are odd, they 398 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 1: are changing so quickly. JD. Vance will not be picture 399 00:20:56,560 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 1: the trumpiest, most loyal, obvious air apparent. It's probably JD. 400 00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 1: I don't know. Steven Miller got help us and I 401 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 1: agree with him a lot, but uh, even JD. Vance 402 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:12,400 Speaker 1: could not do Trump like Trump did Trump and get 403 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:16,119 Speaker 1: the same reaction and or lack of reaction, the same cooperation, 404 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,760 Speaker 1: the same opposition. It would just it would be different. 405 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 1: You know, the world keeps us spinning and changing. 406 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,679 Speaker 3: Yeah, I was trying to find God, I had this, 407 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 3: and I never got this on the air. 408 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 2: Darn it. 409 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 3: Gavin Newsom's post on New Year's Day, and it was 410 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:37,240 Speaker 3: one hundred percent out of the Trump playbook. 411 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,080 Speaker 1: I'll get it on the radio show tomorrow. 412 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,400 Speaker 3: But it was basically Happy New Year to everybody except 413 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,639 Speaker 3: the evil Maga Republicans who want to destroy you know. 414 00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:48,959 Speaker 3: It was it was it was trying to emulate Trump, 415 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:52,160 Speaker 3: you know, the way Trump does that on Merry Christmas, 416 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:53,360 Speaker 3: except for my you know. 417 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,000 Speaker 1: Awful enemies blah blah blah. 418 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:59,160 Speaker 3: And I thought, well, here's your answer to whether we're 419 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 3: not going back to the olden days? 420 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:00,879 Speaker 1: Are not. 421 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,439 Speaker 3: Gavin Newsome, the most likely person to be nominee at 422 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 3: least at this point for the Democrats, thinks that's the 423 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 3: way to get elected president is to be like Trump today. 424 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 1: He does today, he does. I think when it goes out, 425 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,919 Speaker 1: it'll be like wearing your disco where in nineteen eighty 426 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 1: when it's out. It's all the way out, and people 427 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 1: will be like, not only hey, that's the politics of 428 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 1: five years ago, they'll be pissed off that you continue, 429 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 1: you know, to use hope. You're right, I'm not sure. 430 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 1: Well it might be the new kind is worse. I 431 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,360 Speaker 1: don't know. But excuse I'm sorry. I got to concentrate 432 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 1: on this for a second. I'm entering my code using 433 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,199 Speaker 1: my credit card. There you go, went through. Good. I 434 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 1: just bought a million acres in Greenland. So it's in 435 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,919 Speaker 1: far northwest Greenland. I hear it's pretty this time here. 436 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 1: Good for you. Well, there you go. The risks for 437 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 1: twenty six. We'll see how it turns out. Be afraid, 438 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 1: be very afraid. Extra large