1 00:00:01,320 --> 00:00:12,080 Speaker 1: Scrap on your parachute. It's time for What Goes Up. Hello, 2 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:15,240 Speaker 1: and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast. 3 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:18,800 Speaker 1: I'm Mike Reagan, a senior editor at Bloomberg, and this 4 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:21,119 Speaker 1: week on the show, we'll talk about how everyone is 5 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:24,440 Speaker 1: expecting this year to be a blockbuster period for the economy, 6 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 1: with the Federal Reserve expecting us GDP to grow by 7 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 1: six point five. Our guest is optimistic about growth as well, 8 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 1: but not quite as optimistic as the Fed. We'll discuss 9 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: why and what it means for how you should allocate 10 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: your investments this year. But first, let's let Charlie Pellett 11 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 1: tell us who this week's mystery co host is. This 12 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 1: week's mystery co host is Scarlet Food. Scarlett is an 13 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 1: anchor for Bloomberg Quicktake and a veteran of Bloomberg Television 14 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 1: and Bloomberg News. She's an avid mountain bike rider who 15 00:00:56,600 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 1: actually taught Mike Reagan everything he knows about the Bloomberg Rominal. 16 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: Of course, she's still way faster than Mike, both on 17 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:08,039 Speaker 1: a mountain bike and a terminal. You know, Scarlett, I'm 18 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 1: gonna have to talk to Charlie about these introductions. He's 19 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 1: getting some insults in on me there, but it is true. 20 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 1: I assume you are still faster on than be on 21 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 1: a terminal D bike. I'm faster when I'm typing and 22 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:24,480 Speaker 1: using shortcuts on Microsoft Word. I'm not sure about on 23 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 1: a mountain bike, especially going downhill. I tend to be 24 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:30,319 Speaker 1: pretty cautious when going downhill and uphill. I'm I'm not 25 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:33,199 Speaker 1: I'm not too fast either, but we're working on that. Also, 26 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:36,399 Speaker 1: being introduced by Charlie Pellett is amazing, isn't that. It's 27 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 1: a great pair of of doing this podcast, having Charlie 28 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 1: do the intros and and a little insult comedy once 29 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:45,320 Speaker 1: in a while as well. But Scarlett talk to us 30 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: about Quick Take. I'm very excited about all the all 31 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: the plans in the work for for Quick Take is 32 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 1: Chris Paul, NBA star. Chris Paul is going to be 33 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: doing the show. I hope he doesn't mess up the 34 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 1: groove in your seat though now I think, um, he's 35 00:01:57,760 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: got his own seat, he's got his own table, he's 36 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 1: got his room, he'll be doing his own thing. I'm 37 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: not totally sure what it's going to be yet. And 38 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: in fact, even if I did. I couldn't say anything 39 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:08,639 Speaker 1: because there's going to be a big release on April. 40 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: But in the meantime, um we're doing a lot of 41 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 1: good work just on covering the business news stories more 42 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 1: from a consumer perspective rather than for the Bloomberg Terminal 43 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: client and customer. So it's a really interesting time, obviously, 44 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 1: given what's happening in the markets and the economy, and 45 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 1: with all the different social justice movements as well, and 46 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:31,639 Speaker 1: this focus on equality, which is something that I've been 47 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 1: doing a lot of work on over the last couple 48 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 1: of years of Bloomberg Equality. It's excellent. I'm really looking 49 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 1: forward to the launch of the new prime time lineup, 50 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: and of course, as always, you can watch Scarlett anchor 51 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 1: during the day. Scarlett really did teach me everything about 52 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: the terminal. By the way, I don't want to data Scarlett, 53 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 1: please go back in two and seven. What siety did? 54 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 1: I think you're a little generous with the date there, 55 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 1: But that's fine. I'll let you get away with that. 56 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 1: Fair enough, fair enough to thousand and it was. But anyway, 57 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 1: let's let's bring in our guest here. We're very excited 58 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 1: to have him. He is the chief portfolio strategist at 59 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 1: State Street Global Advisors, so he can talk about all 60 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 1: manner of macro markets and the economic outlook and everything 61 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: in between. His name is Garv Malick Garve. Welcome to 62 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: the show. Nice to be here, Michael mused to be 63 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 1: a scarlet. Well, thanks for thanks for your time. We 64 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 1: really appreciate it. And let's start with that discussion about 65 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: GDP this year. I know you guys are a little 66 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: more conservative in your estimates, uh for GDP this year 67 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:39,119 Speaker 1: than say the fet Is. Walk us through about why 68 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: that is. I mean, still I think regardless, we can 69 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 1: expect a pretty much a blockbuster year for economic growth, 70 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: especially compared to what we've seen, saying the post financial 71 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 1: crisis era. But walk us through what you're thinking about 72 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 1: growth this year and kind of how it will play 73 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: into the markets. Sure, so we aren't expecting a little 74 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 1: bit though, as you said, than the than the FED, 75 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't want to read too much into 76 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: it as well. I think that our expectation is that 77 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 1: both the pasage where things start opening, the pace set 78 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: which consumers starts spending, business spending starts picking up, all 79 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:18,679 Speaker 1: that from a timing standpoint could be a little different 80 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:21,360 Speaker 1: than what the FED is assuming right now, So our 81 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:23,599 Speaker 1: expectations things are going to take a little bit longer 82 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 1: to normalize. So from our perspective one, maybe a little 83 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 1: bit behind the FED. But then if you start looking 84 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 1: at two, perhaps even a little bit ahead of the 85 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: FED at at at that point in time. So it's 86 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 1: a bit about timing as to what's the path to normalization, 87 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: and a bit about other factors. I mean, there are 88 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 1: some odd things we're seeing in consumer behavior. The fact 89 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 1: that you know, stimulus checks went out. People are of 90 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: course spending a bit of it. People are indeed using 91 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: it to pay down debt, some of it is going 92 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 1: to savings. So all those factors keep us a little 93 00:04:57,560 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 1: bit behind the FED as we look at one, and 94 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 1: a little bit ahead perhaps as we look at two. 95 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 1: But all in I agree with you, this is going 96 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:08,119 Speaker 1: to be a blogbuster year, the best we've seen in decades. Okay, 97 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 1: so maybe two or three years out it'll all even 98 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 1: out with what the FET is projecting, With what you're projecting. 99 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: I wonder, though, with the rest of the world opening 100 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:20,800 Speaker 1: up at a slower pace than the US, what does 101 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: that mean in terms of consumption in the United States? 102 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 1: Because a lot of the times people are spending their 103 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: money and they're having these experiences traveling out of the country, 104 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:33,239 Speaker 1: spending their dollars outside the US. People aren't really leaving 105 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:35,679 Speaker 1: the country. Now, what does that mean for domestic demand 106 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: and the kind of consumer spending we can expect over 107 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: the next couple of years. So you're touching on a 108 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 1: very pressing point, right. So one of the reasons why 109 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: in some ways we say that, you know, as we 110 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:47,359 Speaker 1: think about not only just US GDP, but global GDP, 111 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: even in global GDP numbers where perhaps a little bit 112 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: behind consensus podcasts because exactly what you said, the fact 113 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 1: that consumers are going to be spending a bit more domestic, 114 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 1: but not as much as they would have spent what 115 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 1: they're traveling to. Let's say you're up for or Asia, 116 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 1: and we also think that the recovery is going to 117 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 1: have a rolling Um, yeah, it's going to be in 118 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: in wades or role. So right now US is taking 119 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: the lead. I don't think that the current pace of vaccinations. 120 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 1: Everybody knows it's been slow in Europe, but I don't 121 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 1: think we should make consumption that will forever be slow 122 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,600 Speaker 1: in Europe or in Asia. I think they will pick up. 123 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 1: So there's gonna be a bit of a baton handing 124 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 1: that's going to occur from US to Eurozone, Eurozone to 125 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 1: e M. So some dealers occurring as you think about 126 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 1: that roll over occurring, but actually correct, the fact that 127 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 1: consumers are going to be spending a bit more and 128 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:41,039 Speaker 1: domestically does lift up the US, but the fact that 129 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 1: they will not be spending as much internationally means perhaps 130 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: airlines we're not gonna be running as many routes as 131 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: they do internationally revenue impact, So some of those dealers 132 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 1: that might occur because of timing other reasons why you 133 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:56,839 Speaker 1: might see some differential behavior. Uh and uh, perhaps some 134 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:00,599 Speaker 1: better impact in the US immediately, but then um, you know, 135 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 1: some store do as you think about the other parts 136 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 1: of the of the globe. Yeah, I do think it's 137 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:07,599 Speaker 1: interesting to garb Uh you wrote a little bit about 138 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: external leakage. Uh, and correct me if I'm misunderstanding that. 139 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 1: But I I sort of picture that is, you know, 140 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: stimulus money being spent by the US government kind of 141 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 1: then in turn being spent on on imports and stuff 142 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 1: like that. Walk us through how you're thinking about that 143 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: and also how you're thinking about sort of the path 144 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: going forward for fiscal spending. Um, are we really going 145 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 1: to see this infrastructure package that is being discussed or 146 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 1: is that is it gonna be you? My guess is 147 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 1: we we might have kind of a rocky road to 148 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 1: get to that, perhaps perhaps disappointing the markets a little bit. 149 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 1: I don't know, but I'm curious how you're thinking about 150 00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 1: all those issues. Yeah, so I think that first on 151 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: your on your interest question about leakage, Yes, absolutely, it's 152 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: it's sort of you know, party to do with imports, 153 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 1: party to do with savings, and I think one of 154 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 1: the things that has definitely changed for for the U 155 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 1: s consumer from a behavior standpoint. I mean, you guys 156 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 1: know this right, Like I don't want to two or 157 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 1: two if you were dating your your years or your 158 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: age perhaps in this process, but clearly you know that 159 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 1: two thousand's beginning two thousands of the US consumer was 160 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 1: consistently in deficit. We were spending more that we were earning. 161 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: And then post two thousand eight and g FC, we've 162 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 1: seen a change in behavior where the US consumers actually 163 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 1: beginning to stay more and that does indeed continue even 164 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 1: as we look at the effects of the stimulus, most 165 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:33,839 Speaker 1: recently more money being used to pay down debts. But 166 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:35,959 Speaker 1: I think part of the behavior actually correct, is that 167 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: the savings is driving some of that behavior, and some 168 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:42,439 Speaker 1: of it is also timing in how consumers choose to 169 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 1: spend that money, um, you know, dealaying certain decisions two 170 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 1: perhaps later in the year, and all those things do 171 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: factor in as we as we think about that, the 172 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 1: leakage that getting through, and I remembering what was the 173 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 1: second question you had, what you think about this next 174 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: phase of fiscal spending, the infrastructure package that we keep 175 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: hearing about, is it you know? My guess is it's 176 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,319 Speaker 1: gonna be that's that's gonna be a tough negotiation, sort 177 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 1: of a hard fought negotiation, and perhaps maybe the market 178 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: might be disappointed. I'm curious what you think. Yeah, so 179 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:17,079 Speaker 1: I think there's two ways to think about it. As 180 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 1: I agree with you that there is going to be 181 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: some disappointment along the way, I think Biden is doing 182 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 1: everything you can to make sure we get to some outcome. 183 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:26,560 Speaker 1: And everybody acknowledges that this type of spending has to 184 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,680 Speaker 1: occur for a variety of reasons. Um As you know, 185 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:31,319 Speaker 1: I mean you you you said in my Tattle of 186 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:33,080 Speaker 1: Chief portal A Strategies. But one of the things I 187 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 1: do is I work with various institutions, from sovereign well 188 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 1: funds to um pentioned puss across the board. They're hankering 189 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 1: for assets that have long duration and give big dreams 190 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 1: of income, you know, beyond thirty years. Even so there 191 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,559 Speaker 1: is a need for for the infrast spend that has 192 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: demand on every side, it is going to be a 193 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 1: little bit difficult. So you know, I agree with that aspect. 194 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 1: I think the way we think about it in some 195 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 1: ways from a market standpoint, our ship heres for a 196 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 1: second here, So how do we play that to have 197 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 1: the greatest chance of success in terms of getting the 198 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 1: returns we expect from that from the Biden stimulus. And 199 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:15,079 Speaker 1: we think the highest beta for that is actually material 200 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 1: It's a sector which has you know, blight constraints around it. 201 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 1: It's a sector in which we don't see we see 202 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: we see a lot of discipline in terms of ongoing investments. 203 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 1: So when we think about playing out the Biden scenario 204 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 1: versus what actually gets realized, we think materials is a 205 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 1: good place to be. To some extent, industrials too, but 206 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 1: Butterios is a nice place to be for for a 207 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: reasonable length of time to to play the Biden in 208 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 1: pron plan. I'm glad you bring up infrastructure, Mike, because 209 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 1: my son is looking to be a structural engineer, because 210 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:50,319 Speaker 1: he is graduating from high school this year, and Mike 211 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 1: and I talk a lot about this whole process of 212 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 1: getting your kids to college, and hopefully there will be 213 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:58,199 Speaker 1: some bridges and tunnels for him to construct once he graduates. 214 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:01,720 Speaker 1: Um garlf, I want to at your thoughts on the 215 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: labor market, in particular the labor shortage that we seem 216 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:07,960 Speaker 1: to see across so many different parts of the economy. 217 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 1: Whether it's in the um seasonal hospitality industry or the 218 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 1: trucking industry. Everyone's saying that they're going to have to 219 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 1: start paying workers more to get more people into these 220 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:22,239 Speaker 1: kinds of jobs. How are you thinking about wage inflation 221 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 1: and what that means for your investments? Yeah, so, I 222 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 1: think that the way we think about BIGE infressution is 223 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: what are the temporary pressures and then what are sustainable 224 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:34,920 Speaker 1: long term pressures. On a temporary basis, there is a 225 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,320 Speaker 1: lot of pressure on page right. So not only is 226 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 1: it all the segments and sectors you spoke about where 227 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 1: there is a shortage of labor. Also the ongoing pressures 228 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: to raise the minimum page. Now, the question worth while 229 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 1: asking is that is this something that it starts in 230 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: one What is this something that results in a sustainable 231 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 1: move where we can expect to see uh, some reasonable 232 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 1: levels of aage growth the the next three to five years. 233 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:03,560 Speaker 1: And I think that's the place where we struggle. So 234 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 1: we do think that temporary shortages are going to be there. 235 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 1: But as things open, as we get closer to that 236 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:14,360 Speaker 1: full employment number, we're still faced with the sustain problem 237 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 1: that we had in some ways in the Trump administration. 238 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 1: Right that you had full employment, you had labor shortages. 239 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: You did see some page growth, but nothing that leaked 240 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: its way through for there to be inflation on our 241 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 1: more sustained basis. So I would say temporary pressures. Definitely, 242 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:35,199 Speaker 1: it's going to play itself out, and do see a 243 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 1: bit more of a ship that coming towards labor versus 244 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: capital call it. However, for it to be sustained, I 245 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:44,560 Speaker 1: think there's more investments we need to make in in 246 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 1: fine productivity, in tech, those things duty to continue fast 247 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:52,239 Speaker 1: rates so that workers indeed can have more sustained sources 248 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:55,280 Speaker 1: of earning those pages and for us to see a 249 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 1: sustained growth in those So mich and are selfishly wondering here, 250 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 1: um whether that means his daughter and my son will 251 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 1: actually be able to make a living weight and not 252 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 1: live in our homes. I mean, I think that you know, 253 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 1: you've also think the trend right that college educated. I 254 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 1: think that that's an area that continues to gunner and 255 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 1: and continues to have some reasonable level of our gaining power. 256 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 1: So I think may the future that is the writer 257 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 1: Scarlett's talk about dating us there with with our college 258 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: bound that's really true. But I'm just impressed your son 259 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 1: has a major picked out. My daughter's fluctuates depending on 260 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 1: what show she has binge watching. So she's watching Gray's 261 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 1: Anatomy for a while and wanted to be a pediatrician, 262 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 1: and then uh moved on to something else, and I 263 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:55,839 Speaker 1: think it was FBI Agent for a while. So I 264 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 1: gotta get her back. They need to add more seasons 265 00:13:58,000 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 1: to Gray's Anatomy because I want to get her back 266 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 1: back that focus. But but you know, the whole market 267 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 1: until let's say about three weeks ago, a month ago 268 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: was just entirely fixated by what we were seeing in 269 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 1: the treasury market, and this sort of sudden jolt higher 270 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 1: in yields fields have since cooled cooled off a little bit. Um. 271 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 1: It kind of looks at least like a short term 272 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: high possibly maybe perhaps is in um, but I wonder 273 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 1: if that is really true. I mean, how are you 274 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 1: thinking about yields? Um? Is this cooling off period that 275 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: we're seeing here now doomed to fail or higher yields 276 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 1: just inevitable given the the backdrop of GDP growth that 277 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 1: we're seeing and at least a short term pickup of inflation. 278 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 1: I mean, is this kind of a a bowl trap 279 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 1: for for treasury fires right here? Well? I mean I 280 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 1: think that some level of the yields going up I 281 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 1: think has to happen with the amount of growth we're seeing. 282 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, on a long term basis, and 283 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 1: your yells should be mirroring whatever is the GDP growth. 284 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 1: The cut and pick up obviously five six for for 285 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 1: US or six is obviously not sustainable. You start looking 286 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 1: at for three years, you're looking again at the two 287 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 1: two and a half percent number. So some move up 288 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: definitely going to happen. The question is how much. I mean, 289 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 1: you know, we don't see it going much beyond the 290 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 1: at the two and a quarter or two and a half. 291 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 1: Uh And if anything, if we saw yields broach past 292 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 1: those levels, I actually we'll be thinking about saying, well, 293 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 1: maybe we should extend duration and those situations. I mean, 294 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 1: on a on a um broad basis, across the portfolios, 295 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:46,920 Speaker 1: we're under reponds, we're under a duration. But as it 296 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 1: approaches us those levels, we think there may be room 297 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 1: to think about buying treasuries. I mean, keep in mind 298 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 1: that there are these long term pressures that the FED 299 00:15:57,360 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 1: has to deal with, and some of these are political 300 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 1: in nature too. Things. You know, we spoke about page 301 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 1: growth the spook, but college educated um inequality continues to 302 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 1: rise and impact through the pandemic. Some of these structural 303 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 1: forces like inequality have increased over this period. That is 304 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 1: going to put a lid on how much high rates 305 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 1: the FED will tolerate. The language out of the Fed 306 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: on extended stimulus and what they need to start breaking 307 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 1: out suggest to us that you can see yields move up. 308 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:28,360 Speaker 1: There is definitely room to move up in such a 309 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: robust growth environment. Not beyond certain high levels though, uh 310 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: and for us that number is somewhere around you know, 311 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 1: call it to one at quarter two and a half 312 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 1: where we start seeing you know, the other way downward 313 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 1: pressure occurring. The other thing to keep in mind is 314 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 1: that much as we can have a long term various 315 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 1: view on bonds, the fact that institutional investors on long 316 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 1: term basis do need long duration assets just to meet 317 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:00,520 Speaker 1: their their their obligations, and the fact that still when 318 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:04,159 Speaker 1: you think about hedging against any shocks and the equity markets, 319 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: the long duration treasuries are seriously your best bet. And 320 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: and it's it's it's interesting that if you look at 321 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 1: the fit of post GFC, even though we've seen all 322 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 1: these forces play out in terms of globalization, taking a 323 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:22,199 Speaker 1: step back on a trade basis, financial globalization, the effect 324 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 1: of the dollar has simply increased in markets. So even 325 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 1: if you're sitting in in India today or China and 326 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 1: you want to hedge some of these strop positions, well, 327 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 1: US Freddy is still really good use to do that, 328 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 1: So demand plust. The fact that that it is really 329 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: one of your best diversifiers puts a lid on half 330 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 1: far the the Treasury dells can go up. How do 331 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 1: you see foreign demand for treasuries playing into this? I mean, 332 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:51,400 Speaker 1: I know a lot of it ties back to how 333 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,440 Speaker 1: different economies in the emerging markets are faring. But do 334 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 1: you see demand from the likes of China, from Japan, 335 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:02,159 Speaker 1: from other countries around the world changing at all in 336 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:06,639 Speaker 1: the next forceable future in the next year. I know, 337 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:08,920 Speaker 1: I don't see that changing materially. I mean, I think 338 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 1: that there is always competition as to which currency can 339 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:18,359 Speaker 1: be a strong substitute reserve to to the dollar, But 340 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 1: really nothing has emerged in China's trying gets best to 341 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 1: position the remember as a use of currency. We've seen 342 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 1: the Euro do that and take away some market share, 343 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,960 Speaker 1: but I think still the main res of currency, the 344 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 1: main buyer of things in the world. The fact that 345 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:37,919 Speaker 1: we still run a pretty heavy kind of down deficit 346 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 1: here tells us that demand for US as that US 347 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 1: treasuries is going to continue today and go fast. I 348 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 1: think the other thing to keep in mind also is 349 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 1: that right now, as we look from a market perspective, 350 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:52,880 Speaker 1: as we think about earnings growth, we think about growth. 351 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 1: Everything we've been discussing so far, you know, US exceptionalism 352 00:18:56,119 --> 00:19:00,639 Speaker 1: continues across the board. That means that investor is outside 353 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 1: the US certainly demand more and more US assets. So 354 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:08,119 Speaker 1: I don't see the demand situation changing that dramatic and 355 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 1: dramatically because of course the unique status they're enjoys it. 356 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 1: You know, Garv, I'm famous for asking like twelve part questions, 357 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 1: but I'm gonna take it easy on you and don't 358 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 1: only ask a two part question. And that is because 359 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:26,399 Speaker 1: I know you guys at State Street you know a 360 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:28,680 Speaker 1: thing or two about e t f s if I'm 361 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 1: not mistaken, And we've just seen such a massive inflow 362 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 1: into e t f s this year, mutual funds as well, 363 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 1: but really I popping inflows in the in the e 364 00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,320 Speaker 1: t f s. So so two parts to that, Um, 365 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 1: I'm curious for the first part, where is that demand 366 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 1: coming from? You know, is it the pensions and the 367 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 1: institutions you talked about earlier, or is it the sort 368 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:55,360 Speaker 1: of reddit in Wall Street bets crowd or isn't even 369 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,440 Speaker 1: all of the above, I guess perhaps. And also you know, 370 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:02,520 Speaker 1: as as as at just such as yourself, Um, you 371 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 1: know what you're you're thinking about how you should allocate 372 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,360 Speaker 1: your portfolios, and we can use, you know, hypothetically useing 373 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,959 Speaker 1: all et F portfolio how you would advise let's just say, 374 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:17,200 Speaker 1: hypothetically a middle aged guy who's got some kids head 375 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 1: in the college and and it's, uh, it's kind of 376 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 1: a scarity cat a little right. So I think we've 377 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 1: definitely seen abidening of the use of e d S. 378 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 1: I mean, e d S has served really very strongly, 379 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 1: certainly through crisis periods like last year, in terms of 380 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 1: providing investors with liquidity transparent pricing, which has meant that 381 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:44,640 Speaker 1: its role has certainly expanded. So it's not it's it's 382 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 1: certainly used for increasingly for cash actualization. We saw it 383 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,880 Speaker 1: use a lot for rest transfer, you know, I want 384 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 1: to shot something, I don't want to take an a 385 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,880 Speaker 1: beat in the marketplace, um or kind of classic swap 386 00:20:55,960 --> 00:21:00,640 Speaker 1: type arrangements that have been restricted to derivatives increasingly being 387 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:05,160 Speaker 1: media being used for for that tactical positioning. I think 388 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:07,880 Speaker 1: that's probably been an area that's the immense growth as 389 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:12,240 Speaker 1: liquidity has increased within the e d F landscape that 390 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:14,440 Speaker 1: there is a lot more of that tactical views on 391 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 1: either a specific sector, tob sector or or of course 392 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: more broadly in in markets. So that's on the on 393 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 1: the used side of the d F in terms of 394 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 1: how you should think about your allocation again keeping your 395 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 1: hypothetical person in mind, so um, so you know, it's 396 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:36,399 Speaker 1: it's clearly a trade off between how much you want 397 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 1: to be in growth versus safety assets and what do 398 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 1: you do about income. We are biased more towards risk assets. 399 00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 1: That means equities to some extent commodities, Um, we do 400 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 1: like those. I think we keep a structural position in 401 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 1: in both the long duation as I as I spoke 402 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 1: to you about, and and we do like gold for 403 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,239 Speaker 1: its diversifying capabilities. All the incentives are going have come 404 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 1: down with a with a pickup in in yields. I 405 00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: think want to also think about also in the ways 406 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: of making your your income, So you know, should that 407 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:13,159 Speaker 1: mean playing more with dividends, looking at alternatives like convertible 408 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 1: or senior loans, infrastructure, so things like that that gets 409 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 1: you the income statement. Given that most investors and we 410 00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 1: do advocate in this environment in general to be underweight bonds, 411 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,119 Speaker 1: I think you're losing out that that income stream. To 412 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 1: try and put some kind of a structuring place that 413 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 1: gets you to the heart of that that income stream. 414 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 1: I think alternative assets, as you think about dividends, as 415 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 1: I said, as you think about senior loans, converts, those 416 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:42,200 Speaker 1: are all becoming more attractive to get to that that 417 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,880 Speaker 1: that income streams. How much are our hypothetical investor who's 418 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,679 Speaker 1: got a couple of kids heading to college put into 419 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,800 Speaker 1: the likes of bitcoin? I mean you mentioned e t 420 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 1: F UM. I think there are at least eight e 421 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 1: t F bitcoin e t F that have been filed 422 00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,639 Speaker 1: and we have no idea when the SEC is actually 423 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 1: going to green light any of these. Speaking scaredy cats, 424 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 1: I mean there's one the SEC when it comes to 425 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 1: bitcoin ETFs. Is bitcoin something that should be part of 426 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,920 Speaker 1: your portfolio? Are you looking to perhaps allocate some space 427 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 1: to that? Well, I mean the bitcoin is a toughy right, 428 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 1: I mean if you look at the long term behavior, 429 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, bit points move up has got 430 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:21,639 Speaker 1: to do with scarcity and it's got to do much 431 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:23,480 Speaker 1: like gold, and it's got to do it. Yeah, the 432 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:27,440 Speaker 1: fact that it's you know, it's it perceived to be 433 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 1: a sort of sort of value. If you looked at 434 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 1: the long term relationship between using bitcoint as a head 435 00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 1: in any way, UM on a longer basis doesn't do 436 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:37,760 Speaker 1: much better than than gold. In fact, it would say 437 00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:39,680 Speaker 1: goal is way better than than bitcoin in that in 438 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:43,359 Speaker 1: that regard more recently, with all the moves that you've seen, 439 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,639 Speaker 1: it indeed does do a better job of providing some 440 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:52,520 Speaker 1: um some diversification benefit more than mind with with gold. 441 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 1: But you do have to live with the fact that 442 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,960 Speaker 1: the volutarity is much higher. We do struggle to say 443 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 1: what that is it a and assets, the part of 444 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 1: a coal holding or not. I think it's a tough 445 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:05,159 Speaker 1: one to make a call around, but I think that 446 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,159 Speaker 1: investage need to pay attention to it because of just 447 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 1: the fact that it is rising. There's a whole bunch 448 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 1: of cryptocurrencies that are coming about, There's a desire for 449 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,440 Speaker 1: countries to be thinking about digitizing their currency. So given 450 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,120 Speaker 1: that whole complex nos evolving, h it does involve consideration 451 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 1: actually adding it to a portfolio. If everybody did that, 452 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 1: then of course demand for these things would spite up 453 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 1: like no one's business. So that part needs to be 454 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,600 Speaker 1: needs to be kept in the background. Something worth looking 455 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,000 Speaker 1: at UM. I'm not sure it really to step out 456 00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:35,639 Speaker 1: and say that it's something that's an essential part of 457 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 1: investors portfolios, and if we were choosing, I would say 458 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 1: still for that diversification benefit and the fact that you 459 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 1: have so much monetary fiscal stimulus occurting on a double basis, 460 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,640 Speaker 1: gold does it have a role to play in your 461 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 1: your holdings and in your in your broad acid Garth, 462 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 1: I'm glad that you said gold is better than bitcoin 463 00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 1: on this podcast. This this is a safe space for 464 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,800 Speaker 1: ideas like that. If you if you had taken that 465 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,640 Speaker 1: take to Twitter, I would have feared for your your 466 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:12,840 Speaker 1: future mental health. Let's let's just say but one last 467 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 1: thing before we get to the craziest things we saw 468 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:17,639 Speaker 1: in markets this week. UM. I know you've done a 469 00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:21,440 Speaker 1: lot of work looking at liquidity, and obviously we saw 470 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:26,400 Speaker 1: major liquidity issues in the treasury market last year. Um, 471 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,600 Speaker 1: after that seven year note auction a few weeks ago, 472 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,360 Speaker 1: it almost looked like deja vu to that really sort 473 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 1: of liquidity crisis we saw backter in the height of 474 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 1: the pandemic. If you were if you were going to 475 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 1: stay up at night worrying about liquidity in a certain market, 476 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,480 Speaker 1: is would it be the treasury market or is it 477 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:49,080 Speaker 1: the type of thing where a liquidity crisis. You don't 478 00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:51,000 Speaker 1: really know where it's going to be until it happens. 479 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,239 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I think that you do need to think 480 00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,040 Speaker 1: about the treasy market, right because you think about the expectations, right. 481 00:25:58,080 --> 00:25:59,919 Speaker 1: I mean, we do expect it to be an agent 482 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:01,680 Speaker 1: on extremes here, but we do expect that to be 483 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 1: the liquidly as you move away from the dollar to 484 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 1: following the other end to e M currencies, right. I 485 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:10,440 Speaker 1: mean we know liquiiti is a lot less in those 486 00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 1: markets versus here or treasuries as you devenment securities as 487 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,280 Speaker 1: you start going out from d M to EM and 488 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,960 Speaker 1: then e M two um smaller countries within that within 489 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,640 Speaker 1: that complex. So yes, it does one of some conservation 490 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:26,480 Speaker 1: because it challenges notions about as a market running smoothly 491 00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:29,800 Speaker 1: or not running smoothly. And that's why doesn't need to 492 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,399 Speaker 1: pay attention to what is occurtting around that. Again, I 493 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 1: don't want to sound alarm bells here. I think that 494 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,959 Speaker 1: what all we do think that would all the efforts 495 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,240 Speaker 1: the FED is taken. Broadly speaking, markets are reasonably well 496 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 1: functioning and liquid in general. The quick conditions have been 497 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 1: pretty reasonable. But again, something we think about we worry 498 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 1: about it because any frees up on liquidity in federies 499 00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 1: has a ripple effect that goes through a range of markets. Absolutely, 500 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:03,840 Speaker 1: the contagion happens in stantaneously, I guess instantaneously. Yeah, exactly exactly. 501 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 1: And and you know, just to re attrade the effect 502 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 1: of US dollar, U S fasuries and US extertionalism across 503 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 1: global markets on a financial basis, I want to be clear, 504 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:20,200 Speaker 1: I said that financial basis, not not paid basis. We've 505 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 1: seen every country getting a bit more domestic um on 506 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,879 Speaker 1: a on a globle basis, has just increased cross post GFC. 507 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,160 Speaker 1: Is there any risk to get back to that dollar 508 00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 1: as the reserve currency? Any risk to that status in 509 00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 1: your mind? I think that's what the the bitcoin people 510 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 1: would would tell you on Twitter. But I'm curious what 511 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,000 Speaker 1: you think. I mean. You know, we as we started 512 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,439 Speaker 1: putting out our outlook last year, so sort of October, 513 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 1: and when we sit down and think about what what 514 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,639 Speaker 1: is it we expect to look at a market, we 515 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 1: definitely advocated the investors need to pay attention to China 516 00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:55,880 Speaker 1: for a variety of reasons. Right, you know, I'm I'm 517 00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 1: not going to take a political stance here what my 518 00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:00,879 Speaker 1: views maybe on one versus the other it but I 519 00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:04,159 Speaker 1: do think that as you look at the efforts the 520 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,040 Speaker 1: country is putting in place in Chinese economy, is putting 521 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 1: in place videos he's putting in place too. UM call 522 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,880 Speaker 1: it make it a more global currency with an eye 523 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,479 Speaker 1: on it having reserved status. I think it's It's definitely 524 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:21,879 Speaker 1: something that investors should pay attention to. Investors should pay 525 00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,400 Speaker 1: attention to the fact that it's now the second largest economy, 526 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:28,080 Speaker 1: and then you can look at your forecasts. People are 527 00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,120 Speaker 1: more optimistic pessimistic, but somewhere you're looking in the next 528 00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,879 Speaker 1: pack to ten years, it's likely to be bigger than 529 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:37,639 Speaker 1: the US. In that environment, it can be a competitor. 530 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:39,600 Speaker 1: So it's something that investors should keep and keep an 531 00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:57,920 Speaker 1: eye out for. Scarlett I will often compare the podcast 532 00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,520 Speaker 1: to like a good four course meal. We just had 533 00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,760 Speaker 1: a very nutritious discussion there about markets. Now it's time 534 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 1: for the dessert. It's that time tiden up your straight jackets. 535 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:12,840 Speaker 1: It's time for the craziest things we saw in markets 536 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:16,640 Speaker 1: this week, Scarlett, I have a lot of faith in 537 00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 1: you to provide us with something good in the crazyest 538 00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,600 Speaker 1: things category. For this week, What do you have for us? Okay, 539 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,640 Speaker 1: so we remember you and I definitely because we've got 540 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:29,640 Speaker 1: kids heading to college. Can you tell that this is 541 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:34,160 Speaker 1: an obsession of mine? UM. The whole operation Varsity blues 542 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 1: from a couple of years ago where parents who are 543 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 1: paying schools. Uh No, not schools directly, but they're paying 544 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:46,000 Speaker 1: Rick Singer for a side door entrance into elite universities. UM. 545 00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,920 Speaker 1: There's a good story on the Bloomberg News terminal today 546 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:53,160 Speaker 1: that uh I was talking about Chinese students paying agents, 547 00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:57,040 Speaker 1: these consulting firms up to twelve THO dollars first shot 548 00:29:57,120 --> 00:30:00,400 Speaker 1: at an entry level job at investment banks. Michael Sacks, 549 00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,160 Speaker 1: like JP Morgan, I don't know that these are side doors. 550 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,800 Speaker 1: It's not quite a side door, and it's not clear 551 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 1: that this is there's anything wrong with this, but these 552 00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 1: programs offer an inside track to students. They pair them 553 00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:17,400 Speaker 1: with bankers to help with strategy, networking, drafting letters, internal referrals, 554 00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 1: touting success in landing these jobs anywhere from Shanghai to 555 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:25,120 Speaker 1: New York. They target all the big major firms, they 556 00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:29,360 Speaker 1: target Citadel, hedge funds, consultants. It's just an interesting UM 557 00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,080 Speaker 1: story to keep in mind, Mike, as you and I 558 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,200 Speaker 1: prepared to, yeah, spend lots of money on schools, and 559 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 1: then in the years to come, lots of money to 560 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,960 Speaker 1: help them potentially get jobs in Wall Street. So you're 561 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:44,200 Speaker 1: saying I should reserve a spare twelve thousand per per kid. 562 00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:46,560 Speaker 1: I guess all all for the right. I should point 563 00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:48,480 Speaker 1: out to go work what twenty three and a half 564 00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:52,480 Speaker 1: hours stay, that's right, not get enough sleep and work 565 00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:55,840 Speaker 1: all through Saturday. Even though Goldman Sacks and the other 566 00:30:55,920 --> 00:31:00,239 Speaker 1: firms say that they should get their free saturdays they 567 00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:01,880 Speaker 1: I guess it all. It would all pay off in 568 00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:03,479 Speaker 1: the long run. I wonder if they get or they 569 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,680 Speaker 1: guaranteed a job, is it a money back guarantee if 570 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,120 Speaker 1: they can't place your kid in a bank? I wonder. 571 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 1: I did not see any of that. There's no money 572 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:13,400 Speaker 1: back guarantee noted here. But there are a bunch of 573 00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 1: different websites, a bunch of different firms, so they all 574 00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 1: have to offer some competitive advantage. That's that's pretty interesting. Hey, Garth, 575 00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 1: what's your what's your offer for getting my kid a 576 00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:26,800 Speaker 1: an internship with you? And what we're talking after the podcast? 577 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:32,040 Speaker 1: So I have, like you know, I mean, I'll give you, 578 00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,240 Speaker 1: I'll give you two things to think about it. I 579 00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 1: think that one thing market space for a second, right, 580 00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:39,800 Speaker 1: I mean weeks is bill, it's long term averages. I 581 00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:42,120 Speaker 1: mean you know, that thing just blows my mind out. 582 00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:44,040 Speaker 1: I think when we look at it, we do recognize 583 00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:47,440 Speaker 1: that is a lot of good things to look at 584 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 1: on the economic environment. But we're sitting on spid is 585 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,959 Speaker 1: above it two one a day, moving average above it's 586 00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:59,240 Speaker 1: ninety average, bixet extreme THO levels of complacency. That's something 587 00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 1: that that we spent a lot of time thinking about 588 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:05,040 Speaker 1: and care about. Uh. And then the other thing that 589 00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:07,960 Speaker 1: keeps my attention is what's it getting with the oscar 590 00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 1: so um as you know there is there is a 591 00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:15,480 Speaker 1: lot of heat in that category. This year with Chadwick Boseman, 592 00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 1: I was looking to see the odds would have shifted 593 00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:22,680 Speaker 1: between Anthony Hopkins and muh As was the first Muslim 594 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:25,480 Speaker 1: of cost to be nominated for the oscars, and have 595 00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 1: seen some shifts occurred in that regard. My money is 596 00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,719 Speaker 1: still on Chadwick Boseman, but I'm looking to see if 597 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,680 Speaker 1: Riz gives him, gives him a bit of proun for 598 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 1: his money. Garbs. Scarlett is perking up here, and she's 599 00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:41,160 Speaker 1: like our resident gossip columnist at Bloomberg. If you if 600 00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:43,360 Speaker 1: you ever want to catch the latest gossip, check out 601 00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,360 Speaker 1: and you're on the terminal, check out Scarlet's message nine. 602 00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:50,320 Speaker 1: She'll give you the latest. I'll make sure what's the latest? Scarlett? 603 00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, I have not updated that in a 604 00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 1: while because I cannot get into the whole influencer economy 605 00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:59,640 Speaker 1: and the whole um reality show economy. Like I still 606 00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:03,680 Speaker 1: like celebrities, you know, minted the old fashioned way making movies. 607 00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,480 Speaker 1: So I'm a little out of step here. I'm this 608 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:09,280 Speaker 1: podcast is all about showing our age. Mike, what happened? 609 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:11,600 Speaker 1: How did you run into this? We can't we can't 610 00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,440 Speaker 1: hide anymore, we can't hide. Well, I'll show you how 611 00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,840 Speaker 1: out of touch I am with the influencers of the 612 00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:20,240 Speaker 1: world with my craziest thing. I'm going all the way 613 00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:23,200 Speaker 1: back to one of my favorite influencers of all time, 614 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:28,160 Speaker 1: and that's Guy Fiery. You remember him, the restaurant owner. Yeah, 615 00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:33,080 Speaker 1: the the diners, drive ins and dives he cut. Yeah, 616 00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:36,080 Speaker 1: it's great. I could watch that. It's almost like I 617 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,760 Speaker 1: ate a meal after watching it. So satisfying the stuff, 618 00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:42,560 Speaker 1: stuff I would never really eat in real life, but I, 619 00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:46,640 Speaker 1: you know, vicariously live live through Guy Fierry. This relates 620 00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:50,240 Speaker 1: back to the crypto conversation. Because Bitcoin is just not 621 00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,640 Speaker 1: crazy enough to make it into the craziest things. We've 622 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,640 Speaker 1: got to go and move on to the new crypto 623 00:33:56,720 --> 00:34:00,360 Speaker 1: sensation doge coin, as Katie Gray felt like to call 624 00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:05,600 Speaker 1: it doggy coin, and it jumped from eight cents to 625 00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:09,920 Speaker 1: fourteen cents on I think there's between Tuesday and Wednesday 626 00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:13,000 Speaker 1: and he can laugh, ha ha. Eight cents to fourteen 627 00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:17,120 Speaker 1: cents whatever. That's a seventy game for anyone who's who's 628 00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,839 Speaker 1: holding this thing. And it was all because none other 629 00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:24,080 Speaker 1: than Guy Fiery tweeted out a picture of him in 630 00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:30,279 Speaker 1: a space suit with the doge coin uh mascots. His 631 00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,239 Speaker 1: picture was in the space suit helmet and it said 632 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:35,800 Speaker 1: doge coin to the moon or something to that extent. 633 00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:40,200 Speaker 1: So Guy Fierry of Diners, Drive Ins and Dives fare 634 00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:43,720 Speaker 1: is now pumping doge coin on Twitter and it seems 635 00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,359 Speaker 1: to be working a good four cent pop for six 636 00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:50,480 Speaker 1: cents pop in doge coin, all thanks to the Diners, 637 00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:54,000 Speaker 1: Drive Ins, and and Dives host Guy Ferry. So I 638 00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,000 Speaker 1: don't know how this happens where all of a sudden, 639 00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,920 Speaker 1: guy like that is uh, it's pumping doge point if 640 00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:03,000 Speaker 1: someone got to home and and offered some monetary compensation 641 00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:05,040 Speaker 1: for that tweet, I don't know. I hate to impugne 642 00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,880 Speaker 1: Guy Fierry's character in the in the crypto markets, but 643 00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,360 Speaker 1: all at all, pretty good offering of crazy things this 644 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,719 Speaker 1: week from from you two, and I really appreciate your time. 645 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:18,200 Speaker 1: Scarlet Foo and Garth Malick, thank you so much for 646 00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,239 Speaker 1: your time this week. Enjoyed every minute of it. Same yeah, 647 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:23,279 Speaker 1: thank you so much for the game of time O great. Well, 648 00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,800 Speaker 1: hopefully we can have you both back again someday and 649 00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:36,440 Speaker 1: find even crazier things that talk about what goes up. 650 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:38,960 Speaker 1: We'll be back next week. Until then, you can find 651 00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:41,840 Speaker 1: us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and app or wherever 652 00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:44,680 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. We'd love it if you took 653 00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:46,920 Speaker 1: the time to rate and review the show on Apple 654 00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:50,560 Speaker 1: Podcasts so more listeners can find us. And you can 655 00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:55,000 Speaker 1: find us on Twitter follow me at reag Anonymous. Our 656 00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:58,560 Speaker 1: guest host, Scarlett is at Scarlet Foo. You can also 657 00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:03,360 Speaker 1: follow Bloomberg Podcast at at Podcasts, and thank you to 658 00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:05,600 Speaker 1: Charlie Pellett of Bloomberg Radio and the voice of the 659 00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:09,320 Speaker 1: New York City subway system. What Goes Up is produced 660 00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:13,680 Speaker 1: by Laura Carlson. The head of Bloomberg Podcasts is Francesco Levy. 661 00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:16,279 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. To see you next time.