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Speaker 1: responsible gaming resources. All right, I'm for an instant reaction.

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Speaker 1: Buffalo beats Tampa Bay as expected. You know, one of

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Speaker 1: the things about tonight, it was a perfect game to

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Speaker 1: kick off the week. And if you ever go to

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Speaker 1: therapy in life, and I've been going to therapy for

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Speaker 1: a long time, and one of the reasons I do

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Speaker 1: therapy every Wednesday with my wife Ann and I look

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Speaker 1: forward to it every week. It's not about winning, it's

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Speaker 1: about self awareness. How does she view me. I think

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Speaker 1: it makes our relationship really strong and fun. We often

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Speaker 1: laugh during it, We've cried during it. But one of

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Speaker 1: the reasons I like therapy is because it's a mirror,

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Speaker 1: and I like to look and see all sorts of

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Speaker 1: things about me, my flaws, where I'm vulnerable, where I

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Speaker 1: can be better because I love my wife and you know,

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Speaker 1: and I want to make her life as good as

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Speaker 1: possible and kind of be the best me I can.

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Speaker 1: Right So, without getting too personal or too into that

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Speaker 1: is that I've always thought when it comes to pro

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Speaker 1: football is that you have these mirror moments where you

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Speaker 1: have to look yourself in the mirror, and you can

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Speaker 1: fool a lot of people. In September, in early October,

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Speaker 1: the weather's good. Teams that aren't very physical have some

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Speaker 1: nice skill players. Miami Dolphins, you can fool a lot

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Speaker 1: of people for about six weeks in this league. And

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Speaker 1: I thought the Philadelphia Miami game last week was a

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Speaker 1: real moment where Miami had to look itself in the

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Speaker 1: mirror and go. We're kind of a fake, a fake

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Speaker 1: gold watch releasing the speedboat. These are not really Gucci loafers.

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Speaker 1: We can't really play with physical teams, and that's okay.

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Speaker 1: The weather gets colder, they don't have good O line

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Speaker 1: D line play, and as the weather gets colder and

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Speaker 1: it gets windier, physicality beats speed. And I also thought

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Speaker 1: tonight was a great example where Tampa is convincing themselves

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Speaker 1: because they do have some really nice players of what

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Speaker 1: they think they are. Buffalo is what they want to be.

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Speaker 1: What they want is to have a superstar quarterback and

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Speaker 1: Baker was the number one pick. He's not a superstar quarterback.

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen is. They want to have the physicality kind

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Speaker 1: of the overall momentum of the franchise. And I think

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Speaker 1: when you get to week seven, in Week eight and

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be games this week, the Texans are a

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Speaker 1: good team. The Panthers are not. I think you'll see

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Speaker 1: that the Lions are a good team. The Raiders are not.

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Speaker 1: You'll see that Ravens are a good team. The Cardinals

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Speaker 1: are not. Cardinals. Vegas won that first game going to

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Speaker 1: Denver and Mile High, they felt really good about themselves.

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Speaker 1: Carolina competitive early, Tampa Bay for an hour land their division.

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Speaker 1: You start getting the week seven and eight, you got

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Speaker 1: to kind of look in the mirror, got to have

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Speaker 1: a little self awareness. Tampa's not a very good football team.

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Speaker 1: Buffalo is one of the better football teams, and I

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Speaker 1: think Miami last weekend and Miami is still really talented,

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Speaker 1: top ten twelve team in the league. But you really

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Speaker 1: can fool a lot a lot of people in this league.

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Speaker 1: Teams that are average convince themselves they're pretty good. Teams

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Speaker 1: that are pretty good convince themselves they're very good. And

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Speaker 1: Tampa was really talking a game for about four or

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Speaker 1: five weeks, and here's what they are not close to

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Speaker 1: being able to go on the road and control a

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Speaker 1: game tonight. And that's why I think that's one of

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Speaker 1: the reasons I like to go to therapy, is that

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Speaker 1: you can convince yourself of all sorts of things. But

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Speaker 1: when somebody, a neutral voice comes and says, no, that's

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Speaker 1: not really true, No that doesn't really work, No that's

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Speaker 1: not going to pass the smell test, it's really refreshing.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of like, Oh, I can't bullshit people, I

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Speaker 1: can't bullshit anybody I got a neutral voice Week seven

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Speaker 1: and eight. Is that neutral voice in the NFL. You're

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Speaker 1: not fooling anybody. Miami, you're a track meet team. You're

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Speaker 1: not gonna win the super Bowl without that kind of

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Speaker 1: line play. Miami's line play is just not good enough

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Speaker 1: to win a super Bowl. Buffalo's may not be, philadelp

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Speaker 1: may not be, but they're much more built for the

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Speaker 1: duration and not September. Another topic I had today is

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Speaker 1: I thought it was a gut scene move. One of

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Speaker 1: my favorite things about Dana White in the UFC is

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Speaker 1: sort of this quality that he is willing to put

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Speaker 1: himself out there and be completely vulnerable and be hated.

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Speaker 1: During COVID, you know a lot of people the media

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Speaker 1: was really pushing back when Dana White went and leased

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Speaker 1: an island, and he just said, I don't give a rip.

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Speaker 1: I don't think my fighters are in peril, in danger.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to go to an island. And he was right.

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Speaker 1: Thirty five year old athletes were not in danger. Kids

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Speaker 1: were not in danger, despite what the media wanted to claim.

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Speaker 1: And so Dana again took a big swing recently with

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Speaker 1: bud Light, so blood Light, real men of genius, very

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Speaker 1: popular beer, and then they had a marketing pivot to

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Speaker 1: something that I thought was for a lot of people.

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Speaker 1: It was just it was too much, too quickly. But

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Speaker 1: I wasn't outraged by it, because I don't know if

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Speaker 1: I've ever had a bud light. I'm not a full

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Speaker 1: outrage guy. And one of the things I thought about

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Speaker 1: is the UFC fans have pushed back on data and

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Speaker 1: Dane's pushed back on them.

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Speaker 2: Is that.

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Speaker 1: One of the things I've always appreciated about Dana, whether

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Speaker 1: and Dana and I have gone back and forth on stuff,

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Speaker 1: whether Dana and I agree on things, He's totally upfront

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Speaker 1: with me. I try to be totally upfront with him.

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Speaker 1: He's confrontational, I can be. We've resolved any brief issues

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Speaker 1: we've had, and we don't really have many, because I

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Speaker 1: think I really respect him and he's always been good

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Speaker 1: to me. But one of the things that happened, so

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Speaker 1: I went to three UFC cards this summer, and I

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Speaker 1: knew Donald Trump was going to be at one or

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Speaker 1: two of them. I knew that beforehand, but I wasn't

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Speaker 1: going to let Trump, who I think is a buffoon

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Speaker 1: and a narcissist, get in the way of my fun.

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Speaker 1: And the reason being is there's an old adage be

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Speaker 1: less selfish. I don't believe in it at the volume.

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Speaker 1: I believe our motto should be be more selfish, because

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Speaker 1: more selfish means happy and less fake outrage. You don't.

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Speaker 1: You don't really care what the marketing campaign for bud

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Speaker 1: Light is. He just needed something to be outraged by.

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Speaker 1: Remember years ago people outraged by the Dixie Chicks. Let's

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Speaker 1: be honest. You didn't love their music. That's okay. Wasn't

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Speaker 1: my cup of tea either? Is that when you're selfish?

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Speaker 1: And by the way, you loved Michael Jordan, he was selfish,

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Speaker 1: all you MJ fans. MJ didn't pass punch the teammate.

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Speaker 1: People called him an ass, difficult. You don't like Lebron.

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Speaker 1: Lebron passes and elevates others. You love Kobe and MJ.

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady didn't let his backup have snaps. He wanted

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Speaker 1: Garoppolo out of town. Selfish. I'm on team Tom. Garoppolo

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Speaker 1: shouldn't get snaps, Brady should get all of them. Do

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Speaker 1: you want to win Super Bowls? Garoppolo's not the guy

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Speaker 1: Brady was. Do you want to win titles. Don't pass

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Speaker 1: to Matthew Dela Vedova take the shot, Lebron, Michael Jordan

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Speaker 1: take more shots, Kobe take more shots. People look at

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Speaker 1: selfish as mean. I look at selfish as often realistic

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Speaker 1: and happy. I care about my wife and my children,

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Speaker 1: my business, my employees, and a small group of friends.

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Speaker 1: I go to UFC cards even if Trump is there.

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Speaker 1: Why would I let Trump get in the way of

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Speaker 1: my happiness. I'm going to be selfish and have fun.

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Speaker 1: I took my cousin Matt and then my friend Eric

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Speaker 1: and his kids. I didn't care if Trump was there.

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Speaker 1: I would never vote for Trump. I'm not call that

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Speaker 1: Trump dissuade my plans, get in the way of my happiness.

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Speaker 1: The athletes that we truly love are selfish Brady MJ,

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Speaker 1: Kobe Shack. I mean, how many commercials does Shaq have?

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Speaker 1: Six hundred? He think he's worried about you. He's worried

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Speaker 1: about his commercials in his bank. Good for Shaq, Shaq

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Speaker 1: takes care of Shack. Oh for the record, Travis Kelsey,

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Speaker 1: who's dating Taylor Swift, who's worth like four billion dollars,

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Speaker 1: hated a Pfiser commercial and above light commercial. He's not

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Speaker 1: pretending he's outraged. He's taking care of Travis Kelcey in

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Speaker 1: his business. I don't have to agree with it, but

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Speaker 1: he's not faking outrage. He's being sort of selfish. And

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Speaker 1: I love the Chiefs and I'm gonna keep watching them

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Speaker 1: because they're usually the most entertaining team in the league.

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Speaker 1: On Sunday, am I not gonna watch the Chiefs and

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Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey. I can't watch that whole pfisor thing. You

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Speaker 1: don't want to get a vaccine, don't get one? What

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Speaker 1: do I care? But I want to watch Travis Kelcey.

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Speaker 1: Is that when I see all this outrage and I

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Speaker 1: can't believe this politician and this band and this beer company,

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Speaker 1: I don't care. I just want to have fun and

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Speaker 1: be happy. I have people occasionally say, you know, Colin,

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Speaker 1: you have a great job. I'm like, yeah, I get up,

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Speaker 1: I get to talk about sports. It's just I'm happy.

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Speaker 1: When I first met my wife, she said, you just

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Speaker 1: really you live your best life. I'm like, yeah, I'd

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Speaker 1: love you to be part of it. But I don't

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Speaker 1: have a lot of time to be unhappy. Jerry Jonesoa

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Speaker 1: says this, I don't have a lot of time for

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Speaker 1: a bad time. You view selfish as mean, I viewed

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Speaker 1: as happy. Dana White said they want to pay us

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Speaker 1: one hundred million. We had multiple Bealer sponsors interested. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to go and get bud Lights money and do

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Speaker 1: a business deal with bud Light. If you don't want

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Speaker 1: to watch UFC, don't. I'll take your seats. I'll take

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Speaker 1: your seats, but I don't let people get in the

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Speaker 1: way of my fund Politicians, beer companies, ad campaigns, musicians, Hollywood.

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Speaker 1: What do I care what a Hollywood writer votes. If

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Speaker 1: the show's funny, I watch. I figure everybody that works

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Speaker 1: for Netflix, who writes and acts is probably left leaning.

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Speaker 1: I probably disagree with them that ninety percent of their

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Speaker 1: political views. No I care if the show's funny. I'm

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Speaker 1: watching Netflix and Jill instant reaction. See you tomorrow at

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Speaker 1: FS one. Listen. We've all had fender benders in our life.

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Speaker 1: forthpeople dot com slash Colin or dial pound law. That's

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Speaker 1: All right, Time for another edition of Sharp or Square.

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Speaker 1: Chad was super sharp, I was kind of sharp. I

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Speaker 1: was three and two last week. All of our odds

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Speaker 1: provided by Draft Kings. Chad, of course, to CCEO the

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Speaker 1: Action Network, I'll tell you I have taken more favorites

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Speaker 1: than any other year, because I think there's becoming a

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Speaker 1: gap offensively between the halves, the quarterbacks that are good

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Speaker 1: and the have nots. And so Monday I made a

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Speaker 1: huge mistake. I took Rock Purtty over Kirk Cousins at home,

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Speaker 1: and Cousins was great. So I'm gonna throw you a game.

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Speaker 1: And it's very number dependent. I don't like it at

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Speaker 1: three and a half, but at three it's interesting. I

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Speaker 1: don't think we're paying attention to how good the Texans are.

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Speaker 1: And just hear me out. They destroyed Pittsburgh, they destroyed Jacksonville. Okay,

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Speaker 1: this is a team that is a play away. They

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Speaker 1: should have beaten the Falcons, although the Falcons was the

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Speaker 1: right side. This team has taken quality teams, playoff teams,

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Speaker 1: high seeds potentially and destroyed them. Carolina, we lagged them

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Speaker 1: for keeping it close in the first half against Miami.

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Speaker 1: They are in complete utter rebuild. At minus three, I

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Speaker 1: love Houston. At three and a half, I'm a square,

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Speaker 1: But let's say the number drifts back to Texans minus three,

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Speaker 1: which I take is that sharper square, totally sharp.

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Speaker 3: The wise guys have been on CJ. Stroud from the

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Speaker 3: beginning and when I say from the beginning, I mean March.

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Speaker 3: There's nobody in the professional competting community who spent a

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Speaker 3: lot of time looking at a tape and spent a

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Speaker 3: lot of money betting on the NFL draft who thought,

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Speaker 3: oh yeah, I like Bryce Young over CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud.

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Speaker 3: It's pretty well known within sort of the inner circle

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Speaker 3: of NFL executive dom that Bryce Young was an owner's

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Speaker 3: pick and that the player most people wanted was CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud.

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Speaker 3: He lands at the Texans. He's been by far the

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Speaker 3: best rookie quarterback, and not just sort of making good

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Speaker 3: plays and then not making mistakes, but he's made Robert

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Speaker 3: Woods look good. He's made Nico Collins look good.

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Speaker 1: He he's one of the targets back this week too,

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Speaker 1: by the way I think tanks practice. Yeah, that's right.

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Speaker 3: You know, his worst game, he still ended up leading

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Speaker 3: the team to a touchdown drive in the final two minutes,

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Speaker 3: and then they ended up losing because the defense couldn't

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Speaker 3: stop anybody.

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Speaker 2: But look this guy off of by.

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Speaker 3: The wise guys like the Texans at minus three, which

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Speaker 3: is why it's gone up to three and a half.

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Speaker 1: All right, The Steelers have been out gained in every game,

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Speaker 1: and in fact, they've often been awful for large chunks

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Speaker 1: of the game offensively, but they found ways to win.

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Speaker 1: I think that ends this week. Jacksonville's a better team

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Speaker 1: at two and a half. Jacksonville I think has a

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Speaker 1: real shot. I mean, what's interesting about Jacksonville three games

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Speaker 1: on a very short period on the road for two

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Speaker 1: games we were worried how they play against Indy. They

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Speaker 1: keep kind of busting up these trends because they're probably

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Speaker 1: pretty good outside of Kansas City last year where they

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Speaker 1: felt a little overwhelmed. The kind of stack up with

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Speaker 1: everybody when I watch them play minus two and a half,

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Speaker 1: that are the side to me over the Steelers don't

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Speaker 1: care about home in a way. Whether it's not a

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Speaker 1: factor yet sharper square.

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Speaker 3: Now it's the Steelers are the sharp side. It all

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Speaker 3: may come undone one day for the Steelers, but Mike

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Speaker 3: Tomlin is the most profitable coach in the NFL against

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Speaker 3: the spread the past twenty years. Mike Tomlin against teams

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Speaker 3: that are over sixty percent winning percentage, regularly wins at

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Speaker 3: home as an underdog. Tomlin as an underdog at home

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Speaker 3: sixteen and nine straight up. Forget about against the spread.

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Speaker 3: We saw it last week. We've seen it against the Ravens.

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Speaker 3: This team is really weird because they played terribly in

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Speaker 3: the first half and then in the second half the

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Speaker 3: defense starts to grind down the offense a little bit.

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Speaker 2: And TJ.

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Speaker 3: Watt when he's on the field, it's just a different team, right.

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Speaker 3: He tilts the field in the direction of the Steelers.

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Speaker 3: We saw last week the first play the second half interception,

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Speaker 3: runs it back to the three yard line. It catapulted

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Speaker 3: them to a win. I think the Steelers are better

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Speaker 3: with Deontay Johnson back. It frees up George Pickens to

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Speaker 3: be more of a threat downfield. That makes Kenny Pickett

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Speaker 3: more comfortable. It's just a better offense that set. The

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Speaker 3: Jags are an interesting team. So I'm a little bit

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Speaker 3: nervous about it, Like there have been times this year.

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Speaker 3: Steelers against the Ravens, Bet it didn't even think about it.

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Speaker 3: Steelers against the Rams last week, Bet it didn't even

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Speaker 3: think about it.

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Speaker 2: I don't know why I'm a little more.

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Speaker 3: Nervous about the Jags, but I'm still taking the Steelers

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Speaker 3: and as the sharp side.

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Speaker 1: All right, an interesting game that I and I'm I'm

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Speaker 1: reticent to do this because I have twice had the

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Speaker 1: Jets as my last team I didn't take, and I

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Speaker 1: believe in both times they would have covered. So I

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Speaker 1: don't like the Jets as a favorite against anybody. So

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Speaker 1: I would tend to take the Giants plus a field

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Speaker 1: goal with Tyrod Taylor, who's not prone to mistakes, that

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Speaker 1: would be my feeling. I just don't think Zach Wilson

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Speaker 1: is a favorite as ever a comfortable bet. I think

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Speaker 1: this defense, I mean, let's be honest about it. The

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Speaker 1: Jets really have one perimeter weapon one Garrett Wilson. It's

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Speaker 1: still a really meager receiving core. So if they can't

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Speaker 1: run the football effectively, Washington struggled against the Giants. Doing that,

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Speaker 1: I got to take three points in a game that

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Speaker 1: should be really low scoring. Sharper Square, totally sharp.

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Speaker 2: Whise. Guys love the Giants this week.

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Speaker 3: They like the idea of Tyrod Taylor playing instead of

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Speaker 3: Daniel Jones. He's not mistake prone. He runs the offense

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Speaker 3: that Brian Dable wants him to run, which is really important.

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Speaker 3: But also defensively, the Jets, everyone believes are lights out.

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Speaker 3: The Jets defense and its success is predicated this season

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Speaker 3: on their ability to force turnovers thirteen turnovers this year,

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Speaker 3: sixteen all of last year, but last year sort of

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Speaker 3: the advanced metrics, their expected points allowed per drives, things

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Speaker 3: like that, and Bill Barnwell at ESPN wrote a great

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Speaker 3: column about all this this week. They're kind of middle

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Speaker 3: of the road and they're winning and keeping themselves in games.

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Speaker 3: We saw it against the Eagles based on their ability

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Speaker 3: to force turnovers. If you're playing Tyrod Taylor, who's not

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Speaker 3: as pro I want to turning the ball over. That

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Speaker 3: takes away a huge advantage for the Jets defensively. So yes,

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Speaker 3: the wise guys are on the Giants all right.

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Speaker 1: Another game which I'm undecided now, but off of by

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Speaker 1: offensive coach Joe Burrow against a San Francisco team now

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Speaker 1: in a backup quarterback with no Trent Williams or Debo.

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Speaker 1: Sam Darnold is built for Kyle Shanahan, perhaps, but I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure if he's built to be inserted missing a

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Speaker 1: left tackle in one of their specialty players. If I

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Speaker 1: get four, it feels like a slam dunk. Cincinnati at

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Speaker 1: three and a half probably still is. I'm undecided on it,

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Speaker 1: but I've gone back and forth. J Mack and I

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Speaker 1: talked about this on the air and off on FS one.

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Speaker 1: I would think Bengals anything over three would be the

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Speaker 1: side sharper square.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's right, and you're you're nailing it

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Speaker 3: at the number. Similarly to the Texans conversation. You get

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Speaker 3: minus three, you're probably gonna take the Niners. If you

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Speaker 3: can get the hook at three and a half, you

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Speaker 3: can get it at four, then you're gonna take the Bengal.

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Speaker 3: I think before before this game, a lot of consensus

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Speaker 3: was going to be on the Niners.

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Speaker 2: They've had some bad luck.

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Speaker 3: They missed a field goal that cost them against the Browns,

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Speaker 3: they missed a field goal, had three strange, uncharacteristic turnovers.

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Speaker 3: Turns out two of them might have come after brock

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Speaker 3: Party was concussed and through interceptions, and they gave up

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Speaker 3: a weird touchdown at the end of that first half

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Speaker 3: against the Vikings on an all out.

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Speaker 2: Blitz that is just rare for Steve Wilkes to call.

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Speaker 3: And so this team was coming back home as a

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Speaker 3: five and a half point favorite in a game where

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Speaker 3: I think a lot of wise guys thought, Okay, the

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Speaker 3: Niners are going to get right now. Party's out, But

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Speaker 3: I think the consensus is going to be if they're

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Speaker 3: a short favorite, they're still going to back them.

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Speaker 2: People.

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Speaker 3: If wise guys can get the hook, they'll take the Bengals.

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Speaker 3: People are not that convinced. Joe Burrows back, and he

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Speaker 3: did not look great in the second half of that

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Speaker 3: game they had right before the bye. He's still having

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Speaker 3: trouble getting the ball downfield. Not great percentage wise throwing

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Speaker 3: the ball downfield. So there's a lot of sort of

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Speaker 3: nixed feelings about this. This is entirely about the number.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I think Patriots plus nine and a half at

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Speaker 1: Miami feels right, not because they beat Buffalo injuries on

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Speaker 1: the O line. I think it's very clear that Miami

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Speaker 1: has not beaten a playoff team since Week three of

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Speaker 1: last year, or what we consider a top end team.

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Speaker 1: It's a lot of fake Gucci loafers and leasing a speedboat.

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Speaker 1: It's fun to look at, but when you dig deeper,

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Speaker 1: don't have much of a chin. Offensive lines bad translation,

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Speaker 1: New England will get pressure. They do usually even against

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Speaker 1: decent O lines. They're running the ball a little better.

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Speaker 1: Mac Jones with confidence Belichick buoyed by that contract that's public.

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Speaker 1: The team played with a certain swagger. It's not just

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Speaker 1: the Buffalo number. It's a division game. Nine and a

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Speaker 1: half's a ton. I do think weather cools, You're not

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Speaker 1: going down to Miami in the swamp in the second

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Speaker 1: week of September. It's not going to be a factor.

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Speaker 1: I think I would have to take New England in

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Speaker 1: the points Sharper square.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the sharp side.

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Speaker 3: And it's funny you say, sort of the fake guccies

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Speaker 3: and speedboats. Right, Like, Look, Miami is reflection of the

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Speaker 3: city is playing in right now, and they have not

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Speaker 3: beaten good teams. And we've talked about this last week.

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Speaker 3: My biggest bet at the season was the Eagles at

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Speaker 3: two and a half over the Dolphins. Right, and what

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Speaker 3: we're going to see what we started to see with

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Speaker 3: the Patriots against the Bills, Bill O'Brien, a lot more

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Speaker 3: with Mac Jones under center, a lot more short passes.

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Speaker 3: That defense, which had lost Matthew Judon, had lost Christian Gonzales,

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Speaker 3: started to figure out, Okay, how are we going to play?

428
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,160
Speaker 3: How are we going to rush the passer? The Dolphins

429
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 3: without key players on the offensive line. I do think

430
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill practice today, so very good chance that he

431
00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 3: plays on Sunday. But the the wise guys, they push

432
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 3: this number from ten down to nine and a half,

433
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 3: down to nine divisional games, the underdogs and divisional games.

434
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:17,119
Speaker 3: The last decade sixty games above five hundred against the spread,

435
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 3: and we got a few of those games this week.

436
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:22,159
Speaker 1: I don't like big favorites, but I do think my

437
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 1: general rule, if quality teams get humiliated, they almost always

438
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 1: play well the following week. We saw this with the

439
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 1: Cowboys and the Chargers. Detroit humiliated at home. Raiders Jimmy

440
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 1: Garoppolo very few snaps this year. This is a very

441
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 1: average team. I know it's eight to eight and a half,

442
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 1: all odds provided by DraftKings. I said this this week,

443
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 1: don't sell your Detroit stock. They're going to win the division.

444
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 1: They're going to win eleven twelve games. They're built the

445
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 1: right way, pass rush, O line, solid coaching. They need

446
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 1: another corner. So does everybody not name the Jets. This

447
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 1: is the rare large number, And you know I don't

448
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 1: bet big favorites. I could see a thirty twenty here

449
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 1: and not be shocked. Sharper Square Yeah, it's pretty sharp.

450
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 3: Actually, the early ween has been on the Lions because

451
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 3: of everything you just said. Good chance to get right

452
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 3: at home, much better coaching, much better team. Talk about

453
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 3: a team and a coach that reflects the ethos of

454
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 3: its town, right, Like this is as high flying as

455
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,239
Speaker 3: they can be and as good as Jared Goff has been. Like,

456
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 3: this is a smash mouth team in their run defense

457
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 3: is fierce, and that's something that the Raiders haven't been

458
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 3: able to figure out when they're on offense. Jimmy g

459
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 3: who knows what he's going to be when he comes back.

460
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 3: But also the Raiders, the coaching is terrible, the roster

461
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,919
Speaker 3: is terrible. They got lucky in their last couple of wins.

462
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 3: This should be a huge, huge opportunity for the Lions.

463
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 3: The one thing, it's funny, you say that they should

464
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 3: win the division, so because you know this is what

465
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 3: we do. I was looking at the NFC North futures

466
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 3: and the Lions are minus four hundred, the Vikings, who

467
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 3: have won two in a row or plus five point fifty,

468
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:10,880
Speaker 3: and who knows what will happen with the Packers this weekend,

469
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 3: and maybe we're going to talk about that game but

470
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 3: the Lions and Vikings play each other twice in the

471
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:18,160
Speaker 3: last three weeks of the year.

472
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:18,679
Speaker 1: I know it.

473
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 3: Who knows, Like, can the Vikings stay within two games

474
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 3: of the Lions?

475
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,919
Speaker 1: Look at the Viking schedule coming up. A lot of

476
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 1: Jordan loves on it. Watch Minnesota go on a six

477
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 1: game heater. This was the one you circled as an

478
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:36,360
Speaker 1: l They got nothing but Desmond Ritter and Jordan love

479
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 1: And by the way, Justin Jefferson comes back. Jordan Addison

480
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 1: now established old Lions playing very well. Watch Minnesota sneak

481
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 1: into a wild card discussion.

482
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 3: Here's what I would say. I think the Packers are

483
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,919
Speaker 3: going to beat them now. It doesn't mean it doesn't

484
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 3: mean that they can't stay in sort of in contention because,

485
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 3: like you said, their schedule the rest of the year

486
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 3: is so easy, really easy. Like you're not kidding when

487
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 3: you talk about the quarterbacks, they're gonna face And I

488
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,120
Speaker 3: don't know if you're gonna ask me about the Packers,

489
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 3: but I'll just give you a freebee right now.

490
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 2: Wise, guys love the Packers.

491
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 1: Why tell me why?

492
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 2: They just think this is a stinky line. They feel like.

493
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 3: They look at what happened last week in Denver and

494
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 3: Jordan Love's receivers had a lot of drop passes. They're

495
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,640
Speaker 3: going against a defense that still is so blitz happy,

496
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 3: and that's going to Jordan Love has actually been very

497
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:36,120
Speaker 3: good against the blitz. It frees his receivers up into

498
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,880
Speaker 3: single coverage. It gives Christian Watson an opportunity to extend

499
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,399
Speaker 3: the field. It gives Aaron Jones an opportunity to be

500
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 3: in single coverage out of the backfield. Minnesota last week,

501
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 3: I said it about the Niners. It's just as true

502
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 3: about Minnesota playing the Niners. Kirk was on fire, but

503
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 3: they got very lucky. Like the Niners had many many

504
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 3: opportunities to win that game and had some really sort

505
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 3: of what we like to call luck factors working against them,

506
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 3: with some odd uncharacteristic moments, not just for the Niners

507
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 3: but in the game of football. Right, and so, I

508
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 3: think that the Vikings going into this game just overvalued.

509
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 3: They beat a dominant team in a really high profile

510
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 3: spot on television, and that lends to people coming into back.

511
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 3: Then it's a pros Joe's game. Majority of the money,

512
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 3: meaning the big betters are on the Packers. The majority

513
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 3: of the tickets, smaller money. More schmucks are on the vikings.

514
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 1: All right, we finish with two things. The first is

515
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 1: talk me into a game. I often give it to you,

516
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 1: and it's the Rams plus six to six and a

517
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 1: half against Dallas. So, against Philadelphia and against San Francisco

518
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 1: they were clearly outclassed. But the fact that they hung

519
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 1: around Pittsburgh. They are in a rebuild. One RAMS player,

520
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 1: one high end RAMS player. They have one that's in

521
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 1: his prime, Ernest Cooper, Stafford Havenstein Donald. They're out of

522
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 1: their prime. Pittsburghs probably got nine guys in their prime.

523
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 1: They're young. That game was go either way entering the

524
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 1: fourth and it was a Pittsburgh Steedeler crowd. So I

525
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 1: think McVeigh is doing a remarkable job with an old

526
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:24,719
Speaker 1: Aaron Donald and mostly rookies and six round, fourth round picks.

527
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 1: I like the coaching here. It's a lot of points.

528
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 1: I think the Rams will stay close. They're fairly healthy.

529
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 1: I think i'd like the Rams plus the points, but

530
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 1: the Vegas is so smart DraftKings. It's seven. I think

531
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 1: it's such a great bet for the Rams. It's six

532
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 1: and a half. I don't know. You tell me talk

533
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:44,719
Speaker 1: me into it.

534
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 2: So it's interesting you bring this up.

535
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 3: This was the biggest debate that me and my bff

536
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 3: Simon Hunter had in our podcast, and I love the Cowboys.

537
00:29:56,200 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 3: In this spot, Simon wants to love the Cowboys. Can't

538
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 3: quite find the exact number, like it's six six and

539
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 3: a half. It's basically lined right. Like you just said,

540
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 3: the book makers know what they're doing. We cannot find

541
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 3: sort of a consensus wise guy opinion on this because

542
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 3: the number is so right. I'm all in on the

543
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 3: Cowboys for a couple of reasons. I think they're much

544
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 3: more talented. I think I think Mike McCarthy's a terrible coach,

545
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 3: and I think he is he is putting his team

546
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 3: at a disadvantage inside the red zone. And I think

547
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 3: over the course of his career, it has been proven

548
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 3: that if any other coach was working with Aaron Rodgers,

549
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 3: he probably would have more Super Bowls. Like he's just

550
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 3: not a very good play caller. But the Cowboys defense

551
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 3: is so good. Their pressure from just four players on

552
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 3: the front line is insane. And the reason the Steelers

553
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 3: beat the Rams last week is because of the pressure

554
00:30:56,120 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 3: they got on a terrible, terrible rams O line. So

555
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 3: the opportunity here is to put a lot of pressure

556
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 3: on Matthew Stafford and look if he can beat the

557
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 3: pressure and get the ball to Puka Nukua. If he

558
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 3: can get the ball to Cooper Cup, that changes it.

559
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 3: Because the Cowboys do have a lot of issues with

560
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 3: their back line. But we saw against Justin Herbert the

561
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 3: Cowboys had thirty three pressures and hit Justin Herbert twenty

562
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 3: six times, even though they barely sacked him like the

563
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 3: end of the game. Micah Parsons got him once, but

564
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 3: that impacted him enough that he was making bad throws,

565
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 3: rushing throws.

566
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 2: So I also like the Cowboys off of by coming home.

567
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 3: Dak when he's at home, covers and he covers Big

568
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 3: Dak on the road as an underdog in these games

569
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 3: against teams where they are playing opponents who are usually

570
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 3: better than them in the high profile spots that we're

571
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 3: used to seeing, that's when he struggles and that's where

572
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 3: you see sort of the disadvantage that he has with

573
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 3: Mike McCarthy as a coach. But at home, as a favorite,

574
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 3: he's a front runner. That's a good spot to get healthy.

575
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 3: I like the Cowboys in this spot.

576
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 1: Finally, what did I miss? What's the stinker rooney that

577
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 1: you want to talk me into?

578
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 2: There's two of them. There's two of them. We didn't

579
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 2: talk about two ugly division.

580
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 1: Listen, I know Washington's one of them, right that. I

581
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 1: looked at that and I thought, you know what's funny

582
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 1: about them?

583
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 2: Half to half?

584
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 1: Game to game you have no idea what you're getting.

585
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 1: But I got to tell you this. There are moments

586
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 1: when I watched Sam Hall and I'm like, he's a

587
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 1: mid level franchise quarterback. When you give him time to

588
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: step and throw, it is pretty good.

589
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, that's exactly it. Washington plus six and a half. Look,

590
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 3: Denver opened at eight and a half, got bet down

591
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,720
Speaker 3: to eight by the wise guys, got bet down to

592
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 3: seven and a half by the wise guys. Some places

593
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 3: it's seven now. A wise guys love in Denver in

594
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 3: the past couple of weeks. First when they played Kansas City,

595
00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 3: they thought, oh, was Mahomes just off of this game?

596
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: Is that why the defense was so good?

597
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 3: And then they played Green Bay and Matt Lafloor is

598
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 3: really good at scheming his guys open, and Denver did

599
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 3: a good job of stopping the Packers plus Javonte Williams

600
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 3: six weeks into the season. Seven weeks into the season,

601
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 3: much more explosive. You're starting to see Sean Payton give

602
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 3: him the ball more. It's why you've seen again Brother

603
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 3: Division games. Big favorites. The Chiefs not great at covering

604
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 3: three and a half.

605
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 1: Not a big cover, big number team.

606
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 3: It's hard to cover big numbers when you're always favored

607
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 3: by a big number, right, So there's a little bit

608
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 3: of a self fulfilling prophecy here where you get Patrick

609
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 3: Mahomes as a short favorite and underdog. He's so good

610
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 3: he's gonna win those games. But if every game you're

611
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 3: favored by three and a half to ten, it's hard

612
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 3: to always cover in those games. So the wise guys

613
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 3: like Denver, and the wise guys love Washington. They think

614
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 3: it's a spot for for the Eagles. They've got big

615
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 3: games coming up. So it's a little bit of a

616
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 3: look ahead, a little bit of a trap game on

617
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 3: the road.

618
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 2: Is hurts hurt?

619
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 3: We don't know, is Lane Johnson struggling, We don't know.

620
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 3: That oftense still isn't perfect. So there's some some money

621
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,120
Speaker 3: coming on the Commanders. I like them both. I bet

622
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 3: them both. Uh be my buddy, be my buddy, Colin,

623
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 3: be my bad game betting buddy. I went four and

624
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 3: one last week. You went three and two. I went

625
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 3: four and one because I went. I made the extra effort. Okay,

626
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:36,760
Speaker 3: I made the effort.

627
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 1: You know. The downside to having taste is you want

628
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 1: you won't go down to the stinkorama game, the dumpster game.

629
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 2: Oh is that what you're calling it? Taste?

630
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 1: Is that.

631
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 2: How you're framing this that that is a masterclass and

632
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 2: narrative right there. I like it, well done.

633
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 1: All dumpster dive into Washington? Why not? I kind of

634
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 1: you will, yeah, I kind of. They're all over the map.

635
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 1: But I mean Philadelphia comes off a big TV emotional game,

636
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 1: late game, little less prep time to division rival, big

637
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 1: games ahead. I do think it's the kind of game

638
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,320
Speaker 1: that you would say to yourself, let's rest lane Johnson.

639
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 1: You know what I mean. This is a deep team,

640
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 1: and we know this that Washington has moments. We know this,

641
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:32,839
Speaker 1: so I and Philadelphia has I thought that Miami game

642
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 1: was the first game. I thought they really played well.

643
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:39,399
Speaker 1: And at one point it was seventeen seventeen, so in

644
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 1: Miami's really a team Philadelphia's built to beat. Washington's a

645
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 1: team that's built to play Philadelphia close physical trenches, can

646
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 1: run it a little.

647
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 2: That's that.

648
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 1: I don't think that's big dumpster diving. I looked at

649
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:56,360
Speaker 1: that game. You know again, these the wise guys are smart,

650
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,279
Speaker 1: like like you know, six and a half, three and

651
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 1: a half like I like San Francisco. But you make

652
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,359
Speaker 1: if three and a half four was Sam Darnold, then

653
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 1: it's not as attractive. It's just not a good bad

654
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 1: all right, we gotta go.

655
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:11,839
Speaker 3: I like how this ended up being, you know what,

656
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 3: I like them. It's no longer dumpster diving. It's really

657
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 3: this is the file A. I'm like a home underdog

658
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 3: likes right.

659
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,920
Speaker 1: Here, the Stanza. I'm grabbing an e Claire out of

660
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 1: the garbage.

661
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 2: Just quickly.

662
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 1: It was only the five seconds.

663
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 3: That's why you are a multi medium mobile.

664
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, those kind of references quick. All right, buddy, see

665
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 1: you'd rather.

666
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 2: I'll see you later.

667
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 1: The volume