WEBVTT - How to Win Bets and Influence Elections 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:25.964 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:26.004 --> 0:00:28.004 better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova. 0:00:28.324 --> 0:00:31.724 I'm Nate Silver. Do you ever see the sixty minutes 0:00:31.764 --> 0:00:33.804 thing where they're like, You're like, I'm Marley Saper, I'm 0:00:33.844 --> 0:00:36.844 Anderson Cooper, and they go for like fifteen fucking people. 0:00:36.924 --> 0:00:39.364 It's like too much, It is too much. 0:00:39.364 --> 0:00:42.684 I'm glad there's only two of us. So, Nate, what 0:00:42.724 --> 0:00:43.924 are we going to talk about today? 0:00:44.044 --> 0:00:46.684 Today on the show, we'll check in on Carolyn Ellison, 0:00:46.844 --> 0:00:50.204 the former CEO of Alametor Research and girlfriend of Sam 0:00:50.284 --> 0:00:52.884 mcmin fried, who was sentenced to two years for her 0:00:52.964 --> 0:00:54.204 role in the FTX fraud. 0:00:54.404 --> 0:00:57.484 And after that we'll have a little politics update where 0:00:57.524 --> 0:01:01.524 we talk about the latest polling and also what actually 0:01:01.604 --> 0:01:04.124 makes a difference to the numbers. Is there anything that 0:01:04.164 --> 0:01:07.684 we can do in the next few weeks to push 0:01:07.724 --> 0:01:10.844 the push the polls one or the other make our 0:01:10.884 --> 0:01:13.204 candidate more or less likely to win? 0:01:13.644 --> 0:01:16.324 And then we'll say rip two. A couple of legendary 0:01:16.364 --> 0:01:26.044 degenerate gamblers. 0:01:26.724 --> 0:01:31.924 So Caroline Ellison, former CEO, first co CEO, right, and 0:01:31.964 --> 0:01:35.044 then just sole CEO of Alameda, which was the hedge 0:01:35.044 --> 0:01:39.164 fund that was associated with FTX. We've talked about saying 0:01:39.164 --> 0:01:43.204 by Quinfried, We've talked about FTX, but this was a 0:01:43.244 --> 0:01:48.244 big one because Caroline was one of the biggest names 0:01:48.284 --> 0:01:51.604 to testify against SBF and to kind of bring the 0:01:51.644 --> 0:01:55.044 whole thing down, and this week she has been sentenced 0:01:55.124 --> 0:01:57.604 herself to two years. Nate, did you get a chance 0:01:57.644 --> 0:01:59.844 to meet Caroline when you were doing your research? 0:02:00.084 --> 0:02:04.444 Didn't? We put in a request, but she smartly ignored 0:02:04.484 --> 0:02:07.204 it because unlike Sam Bateman Freed, she wasn't talking to 0:02:07.324 --> 0:02:10.804 journalists while she was, you know, on trial for various 0:02:10.844 --> 0:02:14.764 fraud charges. I did obtain transcripts of the three days 0:02:14.804 --> 0:02:20.484 that Carolyn Nelson spent in court testifying about SBF, and 0:02:20.524 --> 0:02:26.324 this was very compelling testimony that basically had SBF dead 0:02:26.364 --> 0:02:29.604 to rights. In fact, the lawyer that I talked to 0:02:29.644 --> 0:02:34.484 about the case said that he thought Sam, after Carolyn's testimony, 0:02:34.644 --> 0:02:37.524 was stupid to testify himself, that he was going to 0:02:37.604 --> 0:02:40.884 come across unsympathetically to a jury, was going to perjure 0:02:40.964 --> 0:02:43.164 himself and get a larger sentence, which is what happened. 0:02:43.204 --> 0:02:46.724 This BF got twenty years. That the judge is a 0:02:46.764 --> 0:02:51.244 no nonsense. Judge. Judge Kaplan presided over many trials and 0:02:51.324 --> 0:02:58.124 was not impressed by dear old Sam bakmanfree so things 0:02:58.164 --> 0:03:02.764 that were a parent in her testimony. One was that 0:03:02.804 --> 0:03:06.084 this was that Sam had a good deal of awareness 0:03:06.644 --> 0:03:10.444 of what was happening, that he was where, that she 0:03:10.644 --> 0:03:13.484 was taking on risks that could result in the bankruptcy 0:03:14.044 --> 0:03:17.044 of the company that she had presented. It's prechuse to 0:03:17.124 --> 0:03:20.044 him say, hey, we make these loans. If there's even 0:03:20.084 --> 0:03:23.324 a mild downturn in crypto prices, which there is all 0:03:23.364 --> 0:03:26.884 the time, then we're fucked. And he said, I don't care. 0:03:27.164 --> 0:03:32.284 It's positive expected value because he thought, you know so 0:03:32.484 --> 0:03:36.924 usually when people calculate expected value poke players and the like, 0:03:38.044 --> 0:03:41.164 they are assigning some weight to the risk of ruin. Right. 0:03:41.244 --> 0:03:44.804 The Kelly criteria is a gambling formula says, let's say 0:03:44.844 --> 0:03:48.644 I want to bet on the Packers Chiefs game this weekend? 0:03:48.844 --> 0:03:51.004 How much should I bet given my edge as a 0:03:51.004 --> 0:03:53.284 share of my bank roll, and basically tells you how 0:03:53.284 --> 0:03:56.324 to maximize your return without having any chance of going 0:03:56.324 --> 0:03:57.244 truly broke. 0:03:57.444 --> 0:03:59.924 Now, and by the way, let's just caveat that a 0:03:59.964 --> 0:04:02.884 little bit, because we know and you've written about the 0:04:02.884 --> 0:04:06.124 fact that the Kelly criterion might actually not be the 0:04:06.164 --> 0:04:08.564 best way to do this if you actually want to avoid. 0:04:08.364 --> 0:04:11.204 Yeah, it assumes you know your edge, and if you 0:04:11.244 --> 0:04:13.604 know your edge, then well that's wonderful, But that's not 0:04:13.724 --> 0:04:15.604 how real sports betting works. Most of the time, you're 0:04:15.684 --> 0:04:18.684 estimating your edge, and most gamblers, even smart gamblers, tend 0:04:18.724 --> 0:04:23.124 to overestimate. So therefore most most gambles have learned through 0:04:23.124 --> 0:04:25.844 time that you want to have half Kelly, or a 0:04:25.924 --> 0:04:29.644 quarter Kelly, even a full Kelly bet intuitively, to most 0:04:29.684 --> 0:04:34.364 gamblers looks very aggressive. You could have yourself betting fifteen 0:04:34.364 --> 0:04:36.604 percent of your entire bankroll on one game where you 0:04:36.684 --> 0:04:37.604 have only a small. 0:04:37.444 --> 0:04:41.084 Edge, for example, And to gambler like SBF, though the 0:04:41.164 --> 0:04:44.604 Kelly criterion criterion was aggressive enough, it was for. 0:04:44.604 --> 0:04:47.364 Wins because what it doesn't do is tell you how 0:04:47.364 --> 0:04:50.404 to maximize your expected value if you don't care about 0:04:50.404 --> 0:04:53.684 going broke. In the book, I ran some simulations where 0:04:53.724 --> 0:04:56.964 you bet five x Kelly instead of point five Kelly, 0:04:58.364 --> 0:05:00.444 and what happens is that ninety nine percent of the 0:05:00.484 --> 0:05:03.324 time where the course of similar an NFL season, you 0:05:03.404 --> 0:05:06.044 go broke, but one percent of the time you wind 0:05:06.124 --> 0:05:08.644 up with more money than Elon Musk yep. 0:05:08.884 --> 0:05:12.044 And that's why you have positive expected value. 0:05:12.204 --> 0:05:15.484 Right. So having a one in one thousand chance of 0:05:16.284 --> 0:05:18.564 earning two hundred and twenty five billion from a ten 0:05:18.644 --> 0:05:22.204 thousand dollars starting bankroll, whatever simulations we made, right, is 0:05:22.364 --> 0:05:24.524 very plus ev if you don't care about the fact 0:05:24.564 --> 0:05:27.164 that you are in debtors prison the other ninety pet 0:05:27.204 --> 0:05:27.844 nine percent. 0:05:27.644 --> 0:05:30.564 Of the exactly. So, so PSA, for our listeners, do 0:05:30.644 --> 0:05:32.724 not try this at home. The one person who did 0:05:32.884 --> 0:05:36.084 is currently in prison for twenty years. 0:05:37.124 --> 0:05:40.444 So yeah, So SBF was aware of the risks they 0:05:40.444 --> 0:05:43.364 were taking and kind of like was ll kind of 0:05:43.404 --> 0:05:47.004 like shrugging them off, right, you know, was aware of 0:05:47.004 --> 0:05:49.204 the mechanism by which these traits are occurring, which is 0:05:49.204 --> 0:05:51.764 that you open up a floodball or a floodgate between 0:05:52.604 --> 0:05:57.244 the customer funds secured as Alameda and you know, money 0:05:57.284 --> 0:06:00.284 that they were then trading with and making bets on 0:06:00.404 --> 0:06:03.244 shit coins and other things. You know, this is the 0:06:03.284 --> 0:06:05.044 part where Sam, when I talked to him, would get 0:06:05.044 --> 0:06:09.044 more legalistic about saying, well, technically customer funds were wired 0:06:09.084 --> 0:06:12.804 to X and why and you know, I I you 0:06:12.844 --> 0:06:15.564 know the jury didn't buy his bullshit, and so I don't. 0:06:15.884 --> 0:06:18.084 I don't really either. But they were knowingly taking customer 0:06:18.084 --> 0:06:22.484 funds and making what Sam knew to be really risky bets, 0:06:22.604 --> 0:06:28.684 and Ellison was uh was aware of this and trying 0:06:28.724 --> 0:06:32.324 to present these risks to Sam. Now we should say 0:06:33.724 --> 0:06:39.764 she is a government witness. Uh do you sign a 0:06:39.844 --> 0:06:40.324 plea deal? 0:06:40.404 --> 0:06:40.564 Right? 0:06:40.604 --> 0:06:43.324 And that means that you're gonna be presented in a 0:06:43.364 --> 0:06:47.924 favorable light. You know, she kind of presents herself as 0:06:47.964 --> 0:06:51.444 some sheep in the will. Is that the right metaphor 0:06:51.484 --> 0:06:52.124 some I don't know. 0:06:53.564 --> 0:06:55.524 I think I think that's not quite the right metaphor. 0:06:55.564 --> 0:06:58.084 But I think she does present herself as a victim, 0:06:58.524 --> 0:07:01.284 as someone who you know, jumped into the abyss. And 0:07:01.804 --> 0:07:06.604 even the judge referred to the fact that Sam bankfint 0:07:06.644 --> 0:07:10.924 Freed was her kryptonite, right. I was in that analogy 0:07:11.564 --> 0:07:14.444 she would be Superman if he's if he's kryptonite, right, 0:07:17.324 --> 0:07:19.884 people really screw that analogy up. I just want to 0:07:19.924 --> 0:07:24.924 point that out. But but yes, she presented herself as 0:07:24.924 --> 0:07:28.444 a victim, as someone who knew it was wrong but 0:07:28.844 --> 0:07:31.604 did it anyway and then couldn't see straight because she 0:07:32.004 --> 0:07:36.044 you know, her professional life and her private life were 0:07:36.084 --> 0:07:41.364 too deeply intertwined. You know, she and she basically was 0:07:41.564 --> 0:07:44.284 upon So I don't know, I don't know what the 0:07:44.284 --> 0:07:46.924 sheep metaphor here would be. It's not a wolf in 0:07:46.964 --> 0:07:51.284 sheep's clothing. That would be SBF, I think. But she, Yeah, 0:07:51.364 --> 0:07:53.884 she is someone who was maybe a lamb. 0:07:53.964 --> 0:07:56.564 Haircut, was a little was a little sheep like I 0:07:56.604 --> 0:07:57.644 suppose it was. 0:07:57.724 --> 0:08:00.604 It was lamb to the slaughter. I don't know. I'm trying. 0:08:00.644 --> 0:08:03.204 I'm trying to take all my metaphors out here. 0:08:03.604 --> 0:08:06.244 I mean. One of the thing about FTX is that 0:08:06.404 --> 0:08:14.644 like it's very much a cult, like uh company when 0:08:14.644 --> 0:08:17.444 you go there. I went to the Bahamas after everyone 0:08:17.484 --> 0:08:22.044 except for two FTX employees and Sam's mom and dad 0:08:22.164 --> 0:08:27.084 and Sam himself had had fled. And it's not the 0:08:27.124 --> 0:08:29.564 typical But from the talking to these ex employees, it's 0:08:29.604 --> 0:08:36.084 like not the typical crypto bro finance bro atmosphere. Instead, 0:08:36.124 --> 0:08:41.404 it's like this touchy feely effective altruist. They think they're 0:08:42.164 --> 0:08:44.484 stealing from the rich to I don't know what to 0:08:44.604 --> 0:08:50.484 for Sam's charitable endeavors. They are isolated, right, people. The 0:08:50.484 --> 0:08:54.484 Bahamas is not actually or this part of the Bahamas 0:08:54.524 --> 0:08:58.164 right that they're in on the southwest corner of New 0:08:58.204 --> 0:09:01.284 Providence Island is not party central. You're away from the 0:09:01.284 --> 0:09:05.644 Bahamar and the Atlantis and NASA and the cruise ship docks. 0:09:07.204 --> 0:09:09.084 But yeah, but like, but so there it's kind of 0:09:09.084 --> 0:09:12.604 a cult and like and like, and Sam makes us 0:09:12.644 --> 0:09:15.404 claim that, oh, I'm doing this because I want to eventually, 0:09:16.124 --> 0:09:18.724 you know, accumulate more money, because the marginal utility is 0:09:18.804 --> 0:09:21.804 very high, because I'll donate it to charity, although actually 0:09:21.844 --> 0:09:24.564 he might do things like donate to presidential candidates and 0:09:24.564 --> 0:09:28.484 try to curry influence and favors. But so you have 0:09:28.564 --> 0:09:32.724 true believers, and you know, and she is close to 0:09:32.724 --> 0:09:35.724 this inner circle. You know one thing, clearly, Sam is 0:09:36.084 --> 0:09:40.804 smart enough to not share his fraudulent intent widely, right, 0:09:41.604 --> 0:09:43.804 you know, it's inner circle and not much else. Doesn't 0:09:43.844 --> 0:09:47.284 go much further than that. So I don't know. I mean, so, 0:09:47.484 --> 0:09:49.124 how many years did she accept as part of the 0:09:49.124 --> 0:09:49.564 plea deal? 0:09:49.804 --> 0:09:52.284 Two years she just got sentenced to two years she 0:09:52.364 --> 0:09:55.124 had as part of the plea deal. She didn't accept 0:09:55.244 --> 0:09:58.044 anything immediately in the sense that she was still going 0:09:58.124 --> 0:10:02.124 to await sentencing, and her lawyers and actually the prosecutors 0:10:02.164 --> 0:10:05.084 also argued for no prison time because of how much 0:10:05.124 --> 0:10:07.564 she cooperated, but the judge said that, you know, she 0:10:07.564 --> 0:10:09.804 couldn't get it. I think this was literally the quote 0:10:10.164 --> 0:10:12.404 get out of jail Free card. I was like, haha, 0:10:12.524 --> 0:10:15.084 I cannot believe you just said that, but yes, that 0:10:15.484 --> 0:10:18.044 is what happened. So she was sentenced to two years. 0:10:18.364 --> 0:10:22.484 But you know, I think it's I think talking about 0:10:22.604 --> 0:10:29.484 kind of this type of environment is actually quite interesting 0:10:29.684 --> 0:10:32.964 because you use the word true believer, which we've used 0:10:32.964 --> 0:10:35.524 on the show in the past when we're talking about 0:10:35.884 --> 0:10:39.444 con artists, and the mark of a true believer is 0:10:39.524 --> 0:10:43.164 you don't like, you don't know right that you're committing fraud, 0:10:43.324 --> 0:10:45.364 like you actually believe in this and you believe it's 0:10:45.364 --> 0:10:47.084 the right thing to do. And what you were just 0:10:47.124 --> 0:10:49.844 talking about, Caroline knew she was what she was doing right, 0:10:49.964 --> 0:10:51.644 She knew that it was wrong, she knew what the 0:10:51.724 --> 0:10:54.364 risk of ruin was, she knew that this was defrauding, 0:10:54.724 --> 0:10:57.764 but she felt, you know, her loyalty was such that 0:10:57.844 --> 0:11:01.404 she did it anyway. So I think that we can't 0:11:01.444 --> 0:11:03.684 call her a true believer, right, We can't call her 0:11:03.804 --> 0:11:07.324 like a true brainwashed cult victim because she knew this 0:11:07.524 --> 0:11:10.124 was wrong and she did it anyway. I think we 0:11:10.164 --> 0:11:13.004 can still give her some sort of She's one of 0:11:13.004 --> 0:11:15.044 these people who's kind of in between, because I think 0:11:15.044 --> 0:11:18.084 she has some characteristics of victim, right. And I think 0:11:18.124 --> 0:11:20.764 that the cult environment is really interesting because it makes 0:11:20.804 --> 0:11:26.004 dissent much less likely. It means that even if you're 0:11:26.044 --> 0:11:28.124 not a true believer, but everyone around you kind of 0:11:28.204 --> 0:11:29.964 is because they don't know the full extent of it. 0:11:30.724 --> 0:11:33.284 Then that kind of influences you as well, and you 0:11:33.324 --> 0:11:37.684 start thinking, maybe I'm wrong right, maybe this isn't fraud, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. 0:11:37.724 --> 0:11:40.084 You start trying to convince yourself. But on the other hand, 0:11:40.124 --> 0:11:42.284 because she knew it, I think she was also a perpetrator. 0:11:42.804 --> 0:11:45.884 Instead of whistleblowing, instead of leaving, instead of going to 0:11:45.884 --> 0:11:48.884 the authorities, she did it anyway, And so I think 0:11:48.924 --> 0:11:51.884 that it's I'm totally on board with giving her a 0:11:51.964 --> 0:11:56.604 lighter sentence because given the testimony, like, given what she did, 0:11:56.644 --> 0:11:59.804 I think that that's absolutely correct, and I do see 0:11:59.804 --> 0:12:02.324 that there are elements of victimhood there. Like I'm not 0:12:02.364 --> 0:12:05.964 blaming her, I'm not giving her a complete you know, 0:12:06.004 --> 0:12:08.404 saying oh no, she's a horrible person, and she does 0:12:08.444 --> 0:12:12.164 seem very unlike SBF. She seems to be to feel 0:12:12.204 --> 0:12:14.524 really really bad, or at least she's a very good 0:12:14.564 --> 0:12:17.924 actor and saying that she feels really really bad and 0:12:17.964 --> 0:12:21.284 that's completely absent in what he's doing. In fact, he's 0:12:21.324 --> 0:12:24.044 appealing his sentence, right. He said that the judge was 0:12:24.084 --> 0:12:26.764 biased and that he deserves to not be in jail 0:12:26.804 --> 0:12:30.924 at all. And she seems to be kind of I 0:12:30.924 --> 0:12:32.564 don't know if at piece is the right word, but 0:12:32.844 --> 0:12:34.964 she seems to have accepted that, like, she did bad 0:12:35.164 --> 0:12:37.004 and she deserves to be punished. 0:12:37.764 --> 0:12:39.404 I'm trying to remember the reporting. I think it was 0:12:39.524 --> 0:12:44.204 from the Michael Lewis book. But she apparently felt like 0:12:44.244 --> 0:12:48.404 a great sense of relief once she realized that they 0:12:48.444 --> 0:12:52.324 were fucked, because they were fucked sooner ear late. I mean, 0:12:52.324 --> 0:12:54.844 even when I talked to me, Sam was kind of like, well, 0:12:54.844 --> 0:12:56.164 we could have played out the string for a few 0:12:56.164 --> 0:12:58.084 more months and then you never know what happens, right, 0:12:59.444 --> 0:13:03.444 But she knew when she realized they were fucked. She's like, Okay, 0:13:03.524 --> 0:13:07.164 finally this has an ending. I mean, I don't know 0:13:07.164 --> 0:13:09.724 about the by the way, just to remind you if 0:13:09.724 --> 0:13:11.684 you just I mean she was sleeping with her boss too, 0:13:11.724 --> 0:13:12.524 where he was sleeping with you? 0:13:12.604 --> 0:13:14.604 Yes she was, yes, yes, yes they were. They were 0:13:14.604 --> 0:13:17.164 part of a relationship. I think it was even like 0:13:17.204 --> 0:13:20.364 a polycule, right, it wasn't just a if I. 0:13:20.324 --> 0:13:23.644 Remember correctly heard of the story. I didn't care to 0:13:23.844 --> 0:13:28.044 investigate that much. I don't really want to picture certain things. 0:13:29.964 --> 0:13:31.924 But I don't blame in it. I don't blame you. 0:13:33.124 --> 0:13:36.684 I mean, isn't the game theory such that, like, isn't 0:13:36.724 --> 0:13:39.004 it aren't we giving people too many incentives to be 0:13:39.044 --> 0:13:42.044 cooperating witnesses or not? What's the expected value? You know 0:13:42.044 --> 0:13:44.324 what I mean of committing fraud? If like, if you're 0:13:44.324 --> 0:13:47.404 not the principle, Oh now two years, ay, not so bad, 0:13:47.644 --> 0:13:48.924 not so bad? Two years. 0:13:48.924 --> 0:13:50.924 Well, it's so funny that you say that, because I 0:13:50.964 --> 0:13:53.084 actually read an analysis and thought I was like, no, 0:13:53.164 --> 0:13:55.804 this isn't this analysis as fucked, This isn't true at all. 0:13:55.844 --> 0:13:57.644 They're like, she got two years. This is going to 0:13:57.684 --> 0:14:00.324 mean that no one's ever going to cooperate, because like 0:14:00.364 --> 0:14:03.284 she should have just gotten off free. Like if you cooperate, 0:14:03.324 --> 0:14:05.004 you shouldn't get any jail time. And I was like, 0:14:05.044 --> 0:14:07.924 eh no, I don't think that's right. Like, if you 0:14:08.164 --> 0:14:12.724 are conspiring to defraud people out of eight billion dollars, 0:14:12.804 --> 0:14:14.364 like that's you know, with a B, that's a lot 0:14:14.364 --> 0:14:17.684 of money, unless you end up in the one percent 0:14:17.684 --> 0:14:20.244 of the simulation where you have more money than Elon Musk. 0:14:20.524 --> 0:14:23.404 But in the other ninety nine point nine percent, you know, 0:14:23.524 --> 0:14:25.484 the eight billion is a lot of money. 0:14:25.724 --> 0:14:28.404 And so about just one second prison time for every 0:14:28.564 --> 0:14:30.044 dollar you see, it's not too bad. 0:14:30.404 --> 0:14:32.564 One second. I can't do that math? How long is 0:14:32.564 --> 0:14:35.484 that going to be? Long? 0:14:35.604 --> 0:14:38.044 Look? I don't know. I look, I'm not good at math, 0:14:38.164 --> 0:14:40.804 and people like I'm good at math. I have to like, yeah, 0:14:40.844 --> 0:14:42.004 I have taculate, same with. 0:14:41.964 --> 0:14:45.084 Me, same with me. But anyway, Yeah, I think she's 0:14:45.124 --> 0:14:48.644 getting off a little bit light. Other people think that 0:14:48.684 --> 0:14:52.804 she's not getting off light enough. And I do think 0:14:52.844 --> 0:14:55.004 that it's a really interesting I think your question is 0:14:55.004 --> 0:14:57.804 a really really interesting one. What's the game theory here? 0:14:58.124 --> 0:14:58.284 Right? 0:14:58.324 --> 0:15:01.844 What's the game theory on fraud on trying to do 0:15:01.924 --> 0:15:04.604 these sorts of things. If you look at SBF and 0:15:04.604 --> 0:15:06.204 you're like, okay, you're going to jail for at least 0:15:06.204 --> 0:15:08.644 twenty years, like that doesn't seem very good. 0:15:09.004 --> 0:15:10.884 But like I mean, this is this is literally the 0:15:10.884 --> 0:15:11.764 prisoners to let. 0:15:11.724 --> 0:15:15.644 Yeah, it actually literally is the prisoners yes to uh 0:15:15.644 --> 0:15:17.764 are we going to except they were allowed to communicate 0:15:17.804 --> 0:15:21.124 because they weren't isolated from each other right away, right okay? Yeah, 0:15:21.164 --> 0:15:23.644 but otherwise otherwise it was the. 0:15:23.364 --> 0:15:26.724 Two hundred and fifty three years for that's a lot 0:15:26.724 --> 0:15:29.604 of that's a lot of seconds. We need to live 0:15:29.644 --> 0:15:31.404 a lot of seconds cheap. That means we need to 0:15:31.404 --> 0:15:34.804 live like three billion seconds and that's a fucking lot. 0:15:34.844 --> 0:15:36.764 I'm wasting more seconds from now on. I didn't know 0:15:36.924 --> 0:15:41.724 that made it burn? Yeah, No, And the game theory 0:15:42.004 --> 0:15:45.604 of the prisoner's lema says that you ultimately do snitch 0:15:46.084 --> 0:15:50.324 in your partner. Yeah, it's too hard to maintain and confidence. Yeah, 0:15:50.364 --> 0:15:51.084 and she did. 0:15:51.284 --> 0:15:55.084 And she did, and that's but this was one of 0:15:55.084 --> 0:15:58.404 those cases. It's actually really interesting. The game theory changes 0:15:58.484 --> 0:16:01.564 depending on how much evidence there is, right, Like, it's 0:16:01.604 --> 0:16:03.244 one of these if you have two prisoners and they 0:16:03.284 --> 0:16:08.004 don't actually have anything on you and they need the confession, 0:16:08.404 --> 0:16:11.044 then it's very different from we have reams of data 0:16:11.164 --> 0:16:13.924 and we actually know, you know, we'll be able to 0:16:14.084 --> 0:16:16.284 trace the finances, and we'll be able to catch you anyway, 0:16:16.284 --> 0:16:19.004 and if you cooperate, maybe it'll be less time. And 0:16:19.084 --> 0:16:21.524 I believe, and Nate correct me if I'm wrong, because 0:16:21.524 --> 0:16:23.564 you know a lot more about this case than I do. 0:16:23.804 --> 0:16:26.164 I believe that they did have enough evidence where even 0:16:26.204 --> 0:16:28.444 without Caroline, they would have been able to have a 0:16:28.444 --> 0:16:29.284 pretty strong case. 0:16:30.924 --> 0:16:33.044 Yeah, I mean, I think I think she was the 0:16:33.124 --> 0:16:35.044 key witness, but like they I mean, they had more 0:16:35.084 --> 0:16:37.044 evidence than they really needed. 0:16:37.364 --> 0:16:38.964 And they had two other witnesses. By the way, there 0:16:38.964 --> 0:16:43.524 were three Topic executives who ended up turning and testifying 0:16:43.524 --> 0:16:44.364 against SBF. 0:16:45.484 --> 0:16:47.204 By the way, the story does have a happy ending. 0:16:47.364 --> 0:16:50.324 It looks as though most of the defrauded people will 0:16:50.324 --> 0:16:55.324 get their money back with interest, in part because some 0:16:55.484 --> 0:16:58.684 things that FTX did have gone well, so they invested 0:16:58.724 --> 0:17:01.724 in Anthropic, the AI company. And also you've seen a 0:17:01.764 --> 0:17:06.004 big rise in crypto prices since the bankruptcy. 0:17:06.124 --> 0:17:07.684 Oh that's good. I didn't realize that. 0:17:08.884 --> 0:17:12.244 Good for them, poker, good for the poker economy. Let's 0:17:12.364 --> 0:17:15.084 pump that crypto back into some high rollers. 0:17:15.124 --> 0:17:19.244 Okay, guys, absolutely, let's do it. But yeah, I think 0:17:19.284 --> 0:17:21.964 I think the bottom line here is that like Caroline is. 0:17:22.244 --> 0:17:25.404 You know, SBF is to me, like not not particularly 0:17:26.004 --> 0:17:28.804 complex to kind of talk about in the sense of 0:17:28.844 --> 0:17:32.004 like was he a con artist? We have talked about that, 0:17:32.284 --> 0:17:34.444 you know, we think I think he was, and like, 0:17:34.764 --> 0:17:37.604 you know, he clearly knew exactly what he was doing. 0:17:37.844 --> 0:17:39.924 Caroline knew what she was doing. But I do think 0:17:39.924 --> 0:17:43.964 that she is Probably she's a more complex character here 0:17:44.004 --> 0:17:46.644 because you do also have the power dynamic, you have 0:17:46.724 --> 0:17:49.684 the sexual dynamic, you have all sorts of things going on. 0:17:53.244 --> 0:17:55.364 You want to talk some politics, Maria. 0:17:55.524 --> 0:17:57.844 I do want to talk some politics, Nate, and let's 0:17:57.884 --> 0:18:14.844 do that after the break. We are now one week 0:18:15.204 --> 0:18:18.084 closer to the election, and I know, I know that 0:18:18.124 --> 0:18:20.404 sounds dramatic, but I mean it's it's getting you know, 0:18:20.404 --> 0:18:23.524 it's getting close, right, We're we're almost are we in October? Yet? 0:18:23.684 --> 0:18:26.284 What day is it? Is it October first? Today? It's Tuesday. 0:18:26.804 --> 0:18:29.764 It's October, which means that I'm late on the monthly 0:18:29.964 --> 0:18:31.684 paid subscriber newsletter post. 0:18:31.884 --> 0:18:34.844 Oh no, nay, as a paid as a paid subscriber, 0:18:34.964 --> 0:18:37.644 I'm livid. I'm so mad that you're late on this post. 0:18:37.764 --> 0:18:41.444 They took away the thirty first Oh no, September doesn't 0:18:41.484 --> 0:18:43.564 September seem like it should be thirty one? 0:18:43.644 --> 0:18:46.364 It actually it actually does seem that way. But I 0:18:46.484 --> 0:18:48.244 and you know what, I never remember. I actually have 0:18:48.284 --> 0:18:50.124 to do the little rhyme. Did you ever learn that 0:18:50.124 --> 0:18:53.684 little rhyme in school? Can I do do that? Yeah? Yeah, 0:18:53.684 --> 0:18:55.244 I do the finger thing, but I also have my 0:18:55.284 --> 0:18:58.164 little rhyme. Thirty days has September, April, June, and November 0:18:58.444 --> 0:18:59.484 all thirty one? 0:18:59.524 --> 0:19:03.204 What month shouldn't have a thirty first day? Should we 0:19:03.244 --> 0:19:04.044 give to September? 0:19:05.284 --> 0:19:10.204 I say, I would say, I would say either say. 0:19:10.044 --> 0:19:14.564 November or yeah, let's get rid of that November. 0:19:14.644 --> 0:19:15.964 November is a pretty shitty life. 0:19:16.084 --> 0:19:20.324 Yeah, November is thirty one. Yeah, November should be thirty. 0:19:21.044 --> 0:19:23.124 Wait, no, does November have thirty? November has thirty? I 0:19:23.164 --> 0:19:25.684 just gave my rim. Thirty days has September, April, JUNEA, November. 0:19:25.764 --> 0:19:28.284 November already has thirty. I hate November so much that 0:19:28.364 --> 0:19:29.964 I wanted to subtract yet another one. 0:19:30.084 --> 0:19:33.484 All right, okay, November has twenty nine days now? 0:19:35.484 --> 0:19:39.244 All right, November has twenty nine days. September has thirty one. Done, guys, 0:19:39.244 --> 0:19:41.604 we've made your life so much better this is. This 0:19:41.684 --> 0:19:43.524 is what you come to us for. This is the 0:19:43.564 --> 0:19:44.404 hard hitting news. 0:19:44.604 --> 0:19:47.044 Tuesday, September thirty, first edition. 0:19:46.964 --> 0:19:53.124 Of Risky Business. But okay, let's let's get to it. 0:19:53.164 --> 0:19:57.964 We're in October, we're getting close. What's going on? Has 0:19:57.964 --> 0:20:01.364 anything changed? And then let's talk about, you know, what 0:20:01.444 --> 0:20:04.244 people can be doing in this lead up where we're 0:20:04.524 --> 0:20:07.164 now like weeks away from the actual election. 0:20:08.084 --> 0:20:12.244 So not very much has changed. Kamala Harris has a 0:20:12.764 --> 0:20:16.204 three point lead roughly in national polls. She is ahead 0:20:16.244 --> 0:20:19.724 by about a point in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. She's 0:20:19.764 --> 0:20:25.364 behind by about a point in Georgia, Arizona, she's tied 0:20:25.684 --> 0:20:28.524 nets ahead by a pointer. So Nevada in North Carolina 0:20:30.124 --> 0:20:32.924 about about a tie, big hurricane. The more important thing 0:20:32.964 --> 0:20:40.324 is Nevada. Nevada is there like the silver state. I 0:20:40.324 --> 0:20:41.244 can just say the silver state. 0:20:41.324 --> 0:20:46.364 Silver. There you go, yeah, so please continue. 0:20:47.164 --> 0:20:49.324 All that works out to basically a toss up if 0:20:49.364 --> 0:20:51.804 you want to play the percentages, we have Harris at 0:20:51.844 --> 0:20:55.764 blue a fifty five point one percent chance I win 0:20:55.844 --> 0:21:00.084 the electoral College as of this morning, Trump forty four 0:21:00.084 --> 0:21:04.284 point seven dead heat a tie zero point three percent. 0:21:04.804 --> 0:21:07.284 Uh like hitting I don't know what bet is three 0:21:07.364 --> 0:21:09.684 hundred one. I was gonna say, like hitting the double 0:21:09.764 --> 0:21:11.604 zero space in your life, but that's much more likely 0:21:11.604 --> 0:21:18.004 than op point three percent. Yeah, so look, I think 0:21:18.044 --> 0:21:22.444 if the election were held today, then you'd slightly rather 0:21:22.524 --> 0:21:28.164 be Harris. She is uh ahead in nominally enough states 0:21:28.204 --> 0:21:34.684 to win two hundred and seventy six electoral votes, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, 0:21:34.684 --> 0:21:40.324 and the Silver state Nevada. Is it Nevada or Nevada? Nevada? 0:21:40.324 --> 0:21:40.844 Nevada? 0:21:41.684 --> 0:21:44.244 Okay, so it's not Sierra Nevada. That's it's not the 0:21:44.244 --> 0:21:52.844 fancy Nevada. Oh boy, Nevada is a pretty word, it is. 0:21:52.924 --> 0:21:55.244 I actually prefer Nevada, but I will. 0:21:55.324 --> 0:21:57.684 There's this really good substack post where they rate the 0:21:57.764 --> 0:22:00.404 state names, and like, most state names are pretty fucking good. 0:22:00.404 --> 0:22:02.484 You know, a great name is what California? What a 0:22:02.484 --> 0:22:03.164