1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:25,964 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:26,004 --> 00:00:28,004 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova. 3 00:00:28,324 --> 00:00:31,724 Speaker 2: I'm Nate Silver. Do you ever see the sixty minutes 4 00:00:31,764 --> 00:00:33,804 Speaker 2: thing where they're like, You're like, I'm Marley Saper, I'm 5 00:00:33,844 --> 00:00:36,844 Speaker 2: Anderson Cooper, and they go for like fifteen fucking people. 6 00:00:36,924 --> 00:00:39,364 Speaker 2: It's like too much, It is too much. 7 00:00:39,364 --> 00:00:42,684 Speaker 1: I'm glad there's only two of us. So, Nate, what 8 00:00:42,724 --> 00:00:43,924 Speaker 1: are we going to talk about today? 9 00:00:44,044 --> 00:00:46,684 Speaker 2: Today on the show, we'll check in on Carolyn Ellison, 10 00:00:46,844 --> 00:00:50,204 Speaker 2: the former CEO of Alametor Research and girlfriend of Sam 11 00:00:50,284 --> 00:00:52,884 Speaker 2: mcmin fried, who was sentenced to two years for her 12 00:00:52,964 --> 00:00:54,204 Speaker 2: role in the FTX fraud. 13 00:00:54,404 --> 00:00:57,484 Speaker 1: And after that we'll have a little politics update where 14 00:00:57,524 --> 00:01:01,524 Speaker 1: we talk about the latest polling and also what actually 15 00:01:01,604 --> 00:01:04,124 Speaker 1: makes a difference to the numbers. Is there anything that 16 00:01:04,164 --> 00:01:07,684 Speaker 1: we can do in the next few weeks to push 17 00:01:07,724 --> 00:01:10,844 Speaker 1: the push the polls one or the other make our 18 00:01:10,884 --> 00:01:13,204 Speaker 1: candidate more or less likely to win? 19 00:01:13,644 --> 00:01:16,324 Speaker 2: And then we'll say rip two. A couple of legendary 20 00:01:16,364 --> 00:01:26,044 Speaker 2: degenerate gamblers. 21 00:01:26,724 --> 00:01:31,924 Speaker 1: So Caroline Ellison, former CEO, first co CEO, right, and 22 00:01:31,964 --> 00:01:35,044 Speaker 1: then just sole CEO of Alameda, which was the hedge 23 00:01:35,044 --> 00:01:39,164 Speaker 1: fund that was associated with FTX. We've talked about saying 24 00:01:39,164 --> 00:01:43,204 Speaker 1: by Quinfried, We've talked about FTX, but this was a 25 00:01:43,244 --> 00:01:48,244 Speaker 1: big one because Caroline was one of the biggest names 26 00:01:48,284 --> 00:01:51,604 Speaker 1: to testify against SBF and to kind of bring the 27 00:01:51,644 --> 00:01:55,044 Speaker 1: whole thing down, and this week she has been sentenced 28 00:01:55,124 --> 00:01:57,604 Speaker 1: herself to two years. Nate, did you get a chance 29 00:01:57,644 --> 00:01:59,844 Speaker 1: to meet Caroline when you were doing your research? 30 00:02:00,084 --> 00:02:04,444 Speaker 2: Didn't? We put in a request, but she smartly ignored 31 00:02:04,484 --> 00:02:07,204 Speaker 2: it because unlike Sam Bateman Freed, she wasn't talking to 32 00:02:07,324 --> 00:02:10,804 Speaker 2: journalists while she was, you know, on trial for various 33 00:02:10,844 --> 00:02:14,764 Speaker 2: fraud charges. I did obtain transcripts of the three days 34 00:02:14,804 --> 00:02:20,484 Speaker 2: that Carolyn Nelson spent in court testifying about SBF, and 35 00:02:20,524 --> 00:02:26,324 Speaker 2: this was very compelling testimony that basically had SBF dead 36 00:02:26,364 --> 00:02:29,604 Speaker 2: to rights. In fact, the lawyer that I talked to 37 00:02:29,644 --> 00:02:34,484 Speaker 2: about the case said that he thought Sam, after Carolyn's testimony, 38 00:02:34,644 --> 00:02:37,524 Speaker 2: was stupid to testify himself, that he was going to 39 00:02:37,604 --> 00:02:40,884 Speaker 2: come across unsympathetically to a jury, was going to perjure 40 00:02:40,964 --> 00:02:43,164 Speaker 2: himself and get a larger sentence, which is what happened. 41 00:02:43,204 --> 00:02:46,724 Speaker 2: This BF got twenty years. That the judge is a 42 00:02:46,764 --> 00:02:51,244 Speaker 2: no nonsense. Judge. Judge Kaplan presided over many trials and 43 00:02:51,324 --> 00:02:58,124 Speaker 2: was not impressed by dear old Sam bakmanfree so things 44 00:02:58,164 --> 00:03:02,764 Speaker 2: that were a parent in her testimony. One was that 45 00:03:02,804 --> 00:03:06,084 Speaker 2: this was that Sam had a good deal of awareness 46 00:03:06,644 --> 00:03:10,444 Speaker 2: of what was happening, that he was where, that she 47 00:03:10,644 --> 00:03:13,484 Speaker 2: was taking on risks that could result in the bankruptcy 48 00:03:14,044 --> 00:03:17,044 Speaker 2: of the company that she had presented. It's prechuse to 49 00:03:17,124 --> 00:03:20,044 Speaker 2: him say, hey, we make these loans. If there's even 50 00:03:20,084 --> 00:03:23,324 Speaker 2: a mild downturn in crypto prices, which there is all 51 00:03:23,364 --> 00:03:26,884 Speaker 2: the time, then we're fucked. And he said, I don't care. 52 00:03:27,164 --> 00:03:32,284 Speaker 2: It's positive expected value because he thought, you know so 53 00:03:32,484 --> 00:03:36,924 Speaker 2: usually when people calculate expected value poke players and the like, 54 00:03:38,044 --> 00:03:41,164 Speaker 2: they are assigning some weight to the risk of ruin. Right. 55 00:03:41,244 --> 00:03:44,804 Speaker 2: The Kelly criteria is a gambling formula says, let's say 56 00:03:44,844 --> 00:03:48,644 Speaker 2: I want to bet on the Packers Chiefs game this weekend? 57 00:03:48,844 --> 00:03:51,004 Speaker 2: How much should I bet given my edge as a 58 00:03:51,004 --> 00:03:53,284 Speaker 2: share of my bank roll, and basically tells you how 59 00:03:53,284 --> 00:03:56,324 Speaker 2: to maximize your return without having any chance of going 60 00:03:56,324 --> 00:03:57,244 Speaker 2: truly broke. 61 00:03:57,444 --> 00:03:59,924 Speaker 1: Now, and by the way, let's just caveat that a 62 00:03:59,964 --> 00:04:02,884 Speaker 1: little bit, because we know and you've written about the 63 00:04:02,884 --> 00:04:06,124 Speaker 1: fact that the Kelly criterion might actually not be the 64 00:04:06,164 --> 00:04:08,564 Speaker 1: best way to do this if you actually want to avoid. 65 00:04:08,364 --> 00:04:11,204 Speaker 2: Yeah, it assumes you know your edge, and if you 66 00:04:11,244 --> 00:04:13,604 Speaker 2: know your edge, then well that's wonderful, But that's not 67 00:04:13,724 --> 00:04:15,604 Speaker 2: how real sports betting works. Most of the time, you're 68 00:04:15,684 --> 00:04:18,684 Speaker 2: estimating your edge, and most gamblers, even smart gamblers, tend 69 00:04:18,724 --> 00:04:23,124 Speaker 2: to overestimate. So therefore most most gambles have learned through 70 00:04:23,124 --> 00:04:25,844 Speaker 2: time that you want to have half Kelly, or a 71 00:04:25,924 --> 00:04:29,644 Speaker 2: quarter Kelly, even a full Kelly bet intuitively, to most 72 00:04:29,684 --> 00:04:34,364 Speaker 2: gamblers looks very aggressive. You could have yourself betting fifteen 73 00:04:34,364 --> 00:04:36,604 Speaker 2: percent of your entire bankroll on one game where you 74 00:04:36,684 --> 00:04:37,604 Speaker 2: have only a small. 75 00:04:37,444 --> 00:04:41,084 Speaker 1: Edge, for example, And to gambler like SBF, though the 76 00:04:41,164 --> 00:04:44,604 Speaker 1: Kelly criterion criterion was aggressive enough, it was for. 77 00:04:44,604 --> 00:04:47,364 Speaker 2: Wins because what it doesn't do is tell you how 78 00:04:47,364 --> 00:04:50,404 Speaker 2: to maximize your expected value if you don't care about 79 00:04:50,404 --> 00:04:53,684 Speaker 2: going broke. In the book, I ran some simulations where 80 00:04:53,724 --> 00:04:56,964 Speaker 2: you bet five x Kelly instead of point five Kelly, 81 00:04:58,364 --> 00:05:00,444 Speaker 2: and what happens is that ninety nine percent of the 82 00:05:00,484 --> 00:05:03,324 Speaker 2: time where the course of similar an NFL season, you 83 00:05:03,404 --> 00:05:06,044 Speaker 2: go broke, but one percent of the time you wind 84 00:05:06,124 --> 00:05:08,644 Speaker 2: up with more money than Elon Musk yep. 85 00:05:08,884 --> 00:05:12,044 Speaker 1: And that's why you have positive expected value. 86 00:05:12,204 --> 00:05:15,484 Speaker 2: Right. So having a one in one thousand chance of 87 00:05:16,284 --> 00:05:18,564 Speaker 2: earning two hundred and twenty five billion from a ten 88 00:05:18,644 --> 00:05:22,204 Speaker 2: thousand dollars starting bankroll, whatever simulations we made, right, is 89 00:05:22,364 --> 00:05:24,524 Speaker 2: very plus ev if you don't care about the fact 90 00:05:24,564 --> 00:05:27,164 Speaker 2: that you are in debtors prison the other ninety pet 91 00:05:27,204 --> 00:05:27,844 Speaker 2: nine percent. 92 00:05:27,644 --> 00:05:30,564 Speaker 1: Of the exactly. So, so PSA, for our listeners, do 93 00:05:30,644 --> 00:05:32,724 Speaker 1: not try this at home. The one person who did 94 00:05:32,884 --> 00:05:36,084 Speaker 1: is currently in prison for twenty years. 95 00:05:37,124 --> 00:05:40,444 Speaker 2: So yeah, So SBF was aware of the risks they 96 00:05:40,444 --> 00:05:43,364 Speaker 2: were taking and kind of like was ll kind of 97 00:05:43,404 --> 00:05:47,004 Speaker 2: like shrugging them off, right, you know, was aware of 98 00:05:47,004 --> 00:05:49,204 Speaker 2: the mechanism by which these traits are occurring, which is 99 00:05:49,204 --> 00:05:51,764 Speaker 2: that you open up a floodball or a floodgate between 100 00:05:52,604 --> 00:05:57,244 Speaker 2: the customer funds secured as Alameda and you know, money 101 00:05:57,284 --> 00:06:00,284 Speaker 2: that they were then trading with and making bets on 102 00:06:00,404 --> 00:06:03,244 Speaker 2: shit coins and other things. You know, this is the 103 00:06:03,284 --> 00:06:05,044 Speaker 2: part where Sam, when I talked to him, would get 104 00:06:05,044 --> 00:06:09,044 Speaker 2: more legalistic about saying, well, technically customer funds were wired 105 00:06:09,084 --> 00:06:12,804 Speaker 2: to X and why and you know, I I you 106 00:06:12,844 --> 00:06:15,564 Speaker 2: know the jury didn't buy his bullshit, and so I don't. 107 00:06:15,884 --> 00:06:18,084 Speaker 2: I don't really either. But they were knowingly taking customer 108 00:06:18,084 --> 00:06:22,484 Speaker 2: funds and making what Sam knew to be really risky bets, 109 00:06:22,604 --> 00:06:28,684 Speaker 2: and Ellison was uh was aware of this and trying 110 00:06:28,724 --> 00:06:32,324 Speaker 2: to present these risks to Sam. Now we should say 111 00:06:33,724 --> 00:06:39,764 Speaker 2: she is a government witness. Uh do you sign a 112 00:06:39,844 --> 00:06:40,324 Speaker 2: plea deal? 113 00:06:40,404 --> 00:06:40,564 Speaker 1: Right? 114 00:06:40,604 --> 00:06:43,324 Speaker 2: And that means that you're gonna be presented in a 115 00:06:43,364 --> 00:06:47,924 Speaker 2: favorable light. You know, she kind of presents herself as 116 00:06:47,964 --> 00:06:51,444 Speaker 2: some sheep in the will. Is that the right metaphor 117 00:06:51,484 --> 00:06:52,124 Speaker 2: some I don't know. 118 00:06:53,564 --> 00:06:55,524 Speaker 1: I think I think that's not quite the right metaphor. 119 00:06:55,564 --> 00:06:58,084 Speaker 1: But I think she does present herself as a victim, 120 00:06:58,524 --> 00:07:01,284 Speaker 1: as someone who you know, jumped into the abyss. And 121 00:07:01,804 --> 00:07:06,604 Speaker 1: even the judge referred to the fact that Sam bankfint 122 00:07:06,644 --> 00:07:10,924 Speaker 1: Freed was her kryptonite, right. I was in that analogy 123 00:07:11,564 --> 00:07:14,444 Speaker 1: she would be Superman if he's if he's kryptonite, right, 124 00:07:17,324 --> 00:07:19,884 Speaker 1: people really screw that analogy up. I just want to 125 00:07:19,924 --> 00:07:24,924 Speaker 1: point that out. But but yes, she presented herself as 126 00:07:24,924 --> 00:07:28,444 Speaker 1: a victim, as someone who knew it was wrong but 127 00:07:28,844 --> 00:07:31,604 Speaker 1: did it anyway and then couldn't see straight because she 128 00:07:32,004 --> 00:07:36,044 Speaker 1: you know, her professional life and her private life were 129 00:07:36,084 --> 00:07:41,364 Speaker 1: too deeply intertwined. You know, she and she basically was 130 00:07:41,564 --> 00:07:44,284 Speaker 1: upon So I don't know, I don't know what the 131 00:07:44,284 --> 00:07:46,924 Speaker 1: sheep metaphor here would be. It's not a wolf in 132 00:07:46,964 --> 00:07:51,284 Speaker 1: sheep's clothing. That would be SBF, I think. But she, Yeah, 133 00:07:51,364 --> 00:07:53,884 Speaker 1: she is someone who was maybe a lamb. 134 00:07:53,964 --> 00:07:56,564 Speaker 2: Haircut, was a little was a little sheep like I 135 00:07:56,604 --> 00:07:57,644 Speaker 2: suppose it was. 136 00:07:57,724 --> 00:08:00,604 Speaker 1: It was lamb to the slaughter. I don't know. I'm trying. 137 00:08:00,644 --> 00:08:03,204 Speaker 1: I'm trying to take all my metaphors out here. 138 00:08:03,604 --> 00:08:06,244 Speaker 2: I mean. One of the thing about FTX is that 139 00:08:06,404 --> 00:08:14,644 Speaker 2: like it's very much a cult, like uh company when 140 00:08:14,644 --> 00:08:17,444 Speaker 2: you go there. I went to the Bahamas after everyone 141 00:08:17,484 --> 00:08:22,044 Speaker 2: except for two FTX employees and Sam's mom and dad 142 00:08:22,164 --> 00:08:27,084 Speaker 2: and Sam himself had had fled. And it's not the 143 00:08:27,124 --> 00:08:29,564 Speaker 2: typical But from the talking to these ex employees, it's 144 00:08:29,604 --> 00:08:36,084 Speaker 2: like not the typical crypto bro finance bro atmosphere. Instead, 145 00:08:36,124 --> 00:08:41,404 Speaker 2: it's like this touchy feely effective altruist. They think they're 146 00:08:42,164 --> 00:08:44,484 Speaker 2: stealing from the rich to I don't know what to 147 00:08:44,604 --> 00:08:50,484 Speaker 2: for Sam's charitable endeavors. They are isolated, right, people. The 148 00:08:50,484 --> 00:08:54,484 Speaker 2: Bahamas is not actually or this part of the Bahamas 149 00:08:54,524 --> 00:08:58,164 Speaker 2: right that they're in on the southwest corner of New 150 00:08:58,204 --> 00:09:01,284 Speaker 2: Providence Island is not party central. You're away from the 151 00:09:01,284 --> 00:09:05,644 Speaker 2: Bahamar and the Atlantis and NASA and the cruise ship docks. 152 00:09:07,204 --> 00:09:09,084 Speaker 2: But yeah, but like, but so there it's kind of 153 00:09:09,084 --> 00:09:12,604 Speaker 2: a cult and like and like, and Sam makes us 154 00:09:12,644 --> 00:09:15,404 Speaker 2: claim that, oh, I'm doing this because I want to eventually, 155 00:09:16,124 --> 00:09:18,724 Speaker 2: you know, accumulate more money, because the marginal utility is 156 00:09:18,804 --> 00:09:21,804 Speaker 2: very high, because I'll donate it to charity, although actually 157 00:09:21,844 --> 00:09:24,564 Speaker 2: he might do things like donate to presidential candidates and 158 00:09:24,564 --> 00:09:28,484 Speaker 2: try to curry influence and favors. But so you have 159 00:09:28,564 --> 00:09:32,724 Speaker 2: true believers, and you know, and she is close to 160 00:09:32,724 --> 00:09:35,724 Speaker 2: this inner circle. You know one thing, clearly, Sam is 161 00:09:36,084 --> 00:09:40,804 Speaker 2: smart enough to not share his fraudulent intent widely, right, 162 00:09:41,604 --> 00:09:43,804 Speaker 2: you know, it's inner circle and not much else. Doesn't 163 00:09:43,844 --> 00:09:47,284 Speaker 2: go much further than that. So I don't know. I mean, so, 164 00:09:47,484 --> 00:09:49,124 Speaker 2: how many years did she accept as part of the 165 00:09:49,124 --> 00:09:49,564 Speaker 2: plea deal? 166 00:09:49,804 --> 00:09:52,284 Speaker 1: Two years she just got sentenced to two years she 167 00:09:52,364 --> 00:09:55,124 Speaker 1: had as part of the plea deal. She didn't accept 168 00:09:55,244 --> 00:09:58,044 Speaker 1: anything immediately in the sense that she was still going 169 00:09:58,124 --> 00:10:02,124 Speaker 1: to await sentencing, and her lawyers and actually the prosecutors 170 00:10:02,164 --> 00:10:05,084 Speaker 1: also argued for no prison time because of how much 171 00:10:05,124 --> 00:10:07,564 Speaker 1: she cooperated, but the judge said that, you know, she 172 00:10:07,564 --> 00:10:09,804 Speaker 1: couldn't get it. I think this was literally the quote 173 00:10:10,164 --> 00:10:12,404 Speaker 1: get out of jail Free card. I was like, haha, 174 00:10:12,524 --> 00:10:15,084 Speaker 1: I cannot believe you just said that, but yes, that 175 00:10:15,484 --> 00:10:18,044 Speaker 1: is what happened. So she was sentenced to two years. 176 00:10:18,364 --> 00:10:22,484 Speaker 1: But you know, I think it's I think talking about 177 00:10:22,604 --> 00:10:29,484 Speaker 1: kind of this type of environment is actually quite interesting 178 00:10:29,684 --> 00:10:32,964 Speaker 1: because you use the word true believer, which we've used 179 00:10:32,964 --> 00:10:35,524 Speaker 1: on the show in the past when we're talking about 180 00:10:35,884 --> 00:10:39,444 Speaker 1: con artists, and the mark of a true believer is 181 00:10:39,524 --> 00:10:43,164 Speaker 1: you don't like, you don't know right that you're committing fraud, 182 00:10:43,324 --> 00:10:45,364 Speaker 1: like you actually believe in this and you believe it's 183 00:10:45,364 --> 00:10:47,084 Speaker 1: the right thing to do. And what you were just 184 00:10:47,124 --> 00:10:49,844 Speaker 1: talking about, Caroline knew she was what she was doing right, 185 00:10:49,964 --> 00:10:51,644 Speaker 1: She knew that it was wrong, she knew what the 186 00:10:51,724 --> 00:10:54,364 Speaker 1: risk of ruin was, she knew that this was defrauding, 187 00:10:54,724 --> 00:10:57,764 Speaker 1: but she felt, you know, her loyalty was such that 188 00:10:57,844 --> 00:11:01,404 Speaker 1: she did it anyway. So I think that we can't 189 00:11:01,444 --> 00:11:03,684 Speaker 1: call her a true believer, right, We can't call her 190 00:11:03,804 --> 00:11:07,324 Speaker 1: like a true brainwashed cult victim because she knew this 191 00:11:07,524 --> 00:11:10,124 Speaker 1: was wrong and she did it anyway. I think we 192 00:11:10,164 --> 00:11:13,004 Speaker 1: can still give her some sort of She's one of 193 00:11:13,004 --> 00:11:15,044 Speaker 1: these people who's kind of in between, because I think 194 00:11:15,044 --> 00:11:18,084 Speaker 1: she has some characteristics of victim, right. And I think 195 00:11:18,124 --> 00:11:20,764 Speaker 1: that the cult environment is really interesting because it makes 196 00:11:20,804 --> 00:11:26,004 Speaker 1: dissent much less likely. It means that even if you're 197 00:11:26,044 --> 00:11:28,124 Speaker 1: not a true believer, but everyone around you kind of 198 00:11:28,204 --> 00:11:29,964 Speaker 1: is because they don't know the full extent of it. 199 00:11:30,724 --> 00:11:33,284 Speaker 1: Then that kind of influences you as well, and you 200 00:11:33,324 --> 00:11:37,684 Speaker 1: start thinking, maybe I'm wrong right, maybe this isn't fraud, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. 201 00:11:37,724 --> 00:11:40,084 Speaker 1: You start trying to convince yourself. But on the other hand, 202 00:11:40,124 --> 00:11:42,284 Speaker 1: because she knew it, I think she was also a perpetrator. 203 00:11:42,804 --> 00:11:45,884 Speaker 1: Instead of whistleblowing, instead of leaving, instead of going to 204 00:11:45,884 --> 00:11:48,884 Speaker 1: the authorities, she did it anyway, And so I think 205 00:11:48,924 --> 00:11:51,884 Speaker 1: that it's I'm totally on board with giving her a 206 00:11:51,964 --> 00:11:56,604 Speaker 1: lighter sentence because given the testimony, like, given what she did, 207 00:11:56,644 --> 00:11:59,804 Speaker 1: I think that that's absolutely correct, and I do see 208 00:11:59,804 --> 00:12:02,324 Speaker 1: that there are elements of victimhood there. Like I'm not 209 00:12:02,364 --> 00:12:05,964 Speaker 1: blaming her, I'm not giving her a complete you know, 210 00:12:06,004 --> 00:12:08,404 Speaker 1: saying oh no, she's a horrible person, and she does 211 00:12:08,444 --> 00:12:12,164 Speaker 1: seem very unlike SBF. She seems to be to feel 212 00:12:12,204 --> 00:12:14,524 Speaker 1: really really bad, or at least she's a very good 213 00:12:14,564 --> 00:12:17,924 Speaker 1: actor and saying that she feels really really bad and 214 00:12:17,964 --> 00:12:21,284 Speaker 1: that's completely absent in what he's doing. In fact, he's 215 00:12:21,324 --> 00:12:24,044 Speaker 1: appealing his sentence, right. He said that the judge was 216 00:12:24,084 --> 00:12:26,764 Speaker 1: biased and that he deserves to not be in jail 217 00:12:26,804 --> 00:12:30,924 Speaker 1: at all. And she seems to be kind of I 218 00:12:30,924 --> 00:12:32,564 Speaker 1: don't know if at piece is the right word, but 219 00:12:32,844 --> 00:12:34,964 Speaker 1: she seems to have accepted that, like, she did bad 220 00:12:35,164 --> 00:12:37,004 Speaker 1: and she deserves to be punished. 221 00:12:37,764 --> 00:12:39,404 Speaker 2: I'm trying to remember the reporting. I think it was 222 00:12:39,524 --> 00:12:44,204 Speaker 2: from the Michael Lewis book. But she apparently felt like 223 00:12:44,244 --> 00:12:48,404 Speaker 2: a great sense of relief once she realized that they 224 00:12:48,444 --> 00:12:52,324 Speaker 2: were fucked, because they were fucked sooner ear late. I mean, 225 00:12:52,324 --> 00:12:54,844 Speaker 2: even when I talked to me, Sam was kind of like, well, 226 00:12:54,844 --> 00:12:56,164 Speaker 2: we could have played out the string for a few 227 00:12:56,164 --> 00:12:58,084 Speaker 2: more months and then you never know what happens, right, 228 00:12:59,444 --> 00:13:03,444 Speaker 2: But she knew when she realized they were fucked. She's like, Okay, 229 00:13:03,524 --> 00:13:07,164 Speaker 2: finally this has an ending. I mean, I don't know 230 00:13:07,164 --> 00:13:09,724 Speaker 2: about the by the way, just to remind you if 231 00:13:09,724 --> 00:13:11,684 Speaker 2: you just I mean she was sleeping with her boss too, 232 00:13:11,724 --> 00:13:12,524 Speaker 2: where he was sleeping with you? 233 00:13:12,604 --> 00:13:14,604 Speaker 1: Yes she was, yes, yes, yes they were. They were 234 00:13:14,604 --> 00:13:17,164 Speaker 1: part of a relationship. I think it was even like 235 00:13:17,204 --> 00:13:20,364 Speaker 1: a polycule, right, it wasn't just a if I. 236 00:13:20,324 --> 00:13:23,644 Speaker 2: Remember correctly heard of the story. I didn't care to 237 00:13:23,844 --> 00:13:28,044 Speaker 2: investigate that much. I don't really want to picture certain things. 238 00:13:29,964 --> 00:13:31,924 Speaker 1: But I don't blame in it. I don't blame you. 239 00:13:33,124 --> 00:13:36,684 Speaker 2: I mean, isn't the game theory such that, like, isn't 240 00:13:36,724 --> 00:13:39,004 Speaker 2: it aren't we giving people too many incentives to be 241 00:13:39,044 --> 00:13:42,044 Speaker 2: cooperating witnesses or not? What's the expected value? You know 242 00:13:42,044 --> 00:13:44,324 Speaker 2: what I mean of committing fraud? If like, if you're 243 00:13:44,324 --> 00:13:47,404 Speaker 2: not the principle, Oh now two years, ay, not so bad, 244 00:13:47,644 --> 00:13:48,924 Speaker 2: not so bad? Two years. 245 00:13:48,924 --> 00:13:50,924 Speaker 1: Well, it's so funny that you say that, because I 246 00:13:50,964 --> 00:13:53,084 Speaker 1: actually read an analysis and thought I was like, no, 247 00:13:53,164 --> 00:13:55,804 Speaker 1: this isn't this analysis as fucked, This isn't true at all. 248 00:13:55,844 --> 00:13:57,644 Speaker 1: They're like, she got two years. This is going to 249 00:13:57,684 --> 00:14:00,324 Speaker 1: mean that no one's ever going to cooperate, because like 250 00:14:00,364 --> 00:14:03,284 Speaker 1: she should have just gotten off free. Like if you cooperate, 251 00:14:03,324 --> 00:14:05,004 Speaker 1: you shouldn't get any jail time. And I was like, 252 00:14:05,044 --> 00:14:07,924 Speaker 1: eh no, I don't think that's right. Like, if you 253 00:14:08,164 --> 00:14:12,724 Speaker 1: are conspiring to defraud people out of eight billion dollars, 254 00:14:12,804 --> 00:14:14,364 Speaker 1: like that's you know, with a B, that's a lot 255 00:14:14,364 --> 00:14:17,684 Speaker 1: of money, unless you end up in the one percent 256 00:14:17,684 --> 00:14:20,244 Speaker 1: of the simulation where you have more money than Elon Musk. 257 00:14:20,524 --> 00:14:23,404 Speaker 1: But in the other ninety nine point nine percent, you know, 258 00:14:23,524 --> 00:14:25,484 Speaker 1: the eight billion is a lot of money. 259 00:14:25,724 --> 00:14:28,404 Speaker 2: And so about just one second prison time for every 260 00:14:28,564 --> 00:14:30,044 Speaker 2: dollar you see, it's not too bad. 261 00:14:30,404 --> 00:14:32,564 Speaker 1: One second. I can't do that math? How long is 262 00:14:32,564 --> 00:14:35,484 Speaker 1: that going to be? Long? 263 00:14:35,604 --> 00:14:38,044 Speaker 2: Look? I don't know. I look, I'm not good at math, 264 00:14:38,164 --> 00:14:40,804 Speaker 2: and people like I'm good at math. I have to like, yeah, 265 00:14:40,844 --> 00:14:42,004 Speaker 2: I have taculate, same with. 266 00:14:41,964 --> 00:14:45,084 Speaker 1: Me, same with me. But anyway, Yeah, I think she's 267 00:14:45,124 --> 00:14:48,644 Speaker 1: getting off a little bit light. Other people think that 268 00:14:48,684 --> 00:14:52,804 Speaker 1: she's not getting off light enough. And I do think 269 00:14:52,844 --> 00:14:55,004 Speaker 1: that it's a really interesting I think your question is 270 00:14:55,004 --> 00:14:57,804 Speaker 1: a really really interesting one. What's the game theory here? 271 00:14:58,124 --> 00:14:58,284 Speaker 2: Right? 272 00:14:58,324 --> 00:15:01,844 Speaker 1: What's the game theory on fraud on trying to do 273 00:15:01,924 --> 00:15:04,604 Speaker 1: these sorts of things. If you look at SBF and 274 00:15:04,604 --> 00:15:06,204 Speaker 1: you're like, okay, you're going to jail for at least 275 00:15:06,204 --> 00:15:08,644 Speaker 1: twenty years, like that doesn't seem very good. 276 00:15:09,004 --> 00:15:10,884 Speaker 2: But like I mean, this is this is literally the 277 00:15:10,884 --> 00:15:11,764 Speaker 2: prisoners to let. 278 00:15:11,724 --> 00:15:15,644 Speaker 1: Yeah, it actually literally is the prisoners yes to uh 279 00:15:15,644 --> 00:15:17,764 Speaker 1: are we going to except they were allowed to communicate 280 00:15:17,804 --> 00:15:21,124 Speaker 1: because they weren't isolated from each other right away, right okay? Yeah, 281 00:15:21,164 --> 00:15:23,644 Speaker 1: but otherwise otherwise it was the. 282 00:15:23,364 --> 00:15:26,724 Speaker 2: Two hundred and fifty three years for that's a lot 283 00:15:26,724 --> 00:15:29,604 Speaker 2: of that's a lot of seconds. We need to live 284 00:15:29,644 --> 00:15:31,404 Speaker 2: a lot of seconds cheap. That means we need to 285 00:15:31,404 --> 00:15:34,804 Speaker 2: live like three billion seconds and that's a fucking lot. 286 00:15:34,844 --> 00:15:36,764 Speaker 2: I'm wasting more seconds from now on. I didn't know 287 00:15:36,924 --> 00:15:41,724 Speaker 2: that made it burn? Yeah, No, And the game theory 288 00:15:42,004 --> 00:15:45,604 Speaker 2: of the prisoner's lema says that you ultimately do snitch 289 00:15:46,084 --> 00:15:50,324 Speaker 2: in your partner. Yeah, it's too hard to maintain and confidence. Yeah, 290 00:15:50,364 --> 00:15:51,084 Speaker 2: and she did. 291 00:15:51,284 --> 00:15:55,084 Speaker 1: And she did, and that's but this was one of 292 00:15:55,084 --> 00:15:58,404 Speaker 1: those cases. It's actually really interesting. The game theory changes 293 00:15:58,484 --> 00:16:01,564 Speaker 1: depending on how much evidence there is, right, Like, it's 294 00:16:01,604 --> 00:16:03,244 Speaker 1: one of these if you have two prisoners and they 295 00:16:03,284 --> 00:16:08,004 Speaker 1: don't actually have anything on you and they need the confession, 296 00:16:08,404 --> 00:16:11,044 Speaker 1: then it's very different from we have reams of data 297 00:16:11,164 --> 00:16:13,924 Speaker 1: and we actually know, you know, we'll be able to 298 00:16:14,084 --> 00:16:16,284 Speaker 1: trace the finances, and we'll be able to catch you anyway, 299 00:16:16,284 --> 00:16:19,004 Speaker 1: and if you cooperate, maybe it'll be less time. And 300 00:16:19,084 --> 00:16:21,524 Speaker 1: I believe, and Nate correct me if I'm wrong, because 301 00:16:21,524 --> 00:16:23,564 Speaker 1: you know a lot more about this case than I do. 302 00:16:23,804 --> 00:16:26,164 Speaker 1: I believe that they did have enough evidence where even 303 00:16:26,204 --> 00:16:28,444 Speaker 1: without Caroline, they would have been able to have a 304 00:16:28,444 --> 00:16:29,284 Speaker 1: pretty strong case. 305 00:16:30,924 --> 00:16:33,044 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think I think she was the 306 00:16:33,124 --> 00:16:35,044 Speaker 2: key witness, but like they I mean, they had more 307 00:16:35,084 --> 00:16:37,044 Speaker 2: evidence than they really needed. 308 00:16:37,364 --> 00:16:38,964 Speaker 1: And they had two other witnesses. By the way, there 309 00:16:38,964 --> 00:16:43,524 Speaker 1: were three Topic executives who ended up turning and testifying 310 00:16:43,524 --> 00:16:44,364 Speaker 1: against SBF. 311 00:16:45,484 --> 00:16:47,204 Speaker 2: By the way, the story does have a happy ending. 312 00:16:47,364 --> 00:16:50,324 Speaker 2: It looks as though most of the defrauded people will 313 00:16:50,324 --> 00:16:55,324 Speaker 2: get their money back with interest, in part because some 314 00:16:55,484 --> 00:16:58,684 Speaker 2: things that FTX did have gone well, so they invested 315 00:16:58,724 --> 00:17:01,724 Speaker 2: in Anthropic, the AI company. And also you've seen a 316 00:17:01,764 --> 00:17:06,004 Speaker 2: big rise in crypto prices since the bankruptcy. 317 00:17:06,124 --> 00:17:07,684 Speaker 1: Oh that's good. I didn't realize that. 318 00:17:08,884 --> 00:17:12,244 Speaker 2: Good for them, poker, good for the poker economy. Let's 319 00:17:12,364 --> 00:17:15,084 Speaker 2: pump that crypto back into some high rollers. 320 00:17:15,124 --> 00:17:19,244 Speaker 1: Okay, guys, absolutely, let's do it. But yeah, I think 321 00:17:19,284 --> 00:17:21,964 Speaker 1: I think the bottom line here is that like Caroline is. 322 00:17:22,244 --> 00:17:25,404 Speaker 1: You know, SBF is to me, like not not particularly 323 00:17:26,004 --> 00:17:28,804 Speaker 1: complex to kind of talk about in the sense of 324 00:17:28,844 --> 00:17:32,004 Speaker 1: like was he a con artist? We have talked about that, 325 00:17:32,284 --> 00:17:34,444 Speaker 1: you know, we think I think he was, and like, 326 00:17:34,764 --> 00:17:37,604 Speaker 1: you know, he clearly knew exactly what he was doing. 327 00:17:37,844 --> 00:17:39,924 Speaker 1: Caroline knew what she was doing. But I do think 328 00:17:39,924 --> 00:17:43,964 Speaker 1: that she is Probably she's a more complex character here 329 00:17:44,004 --> 00:17:46,644 Speaker 1: because you do also have the power dynamic, you have 330 00:17:46,724 --> 00:17:49,684 Speaker 1: the sexual dynamic, you have all sorts of things going on. 331 00:17:53,244 --> 00:17:55,364 Speaker 2: You want to talk some politics, Maria. 332 00:17:55,524 --> 00:17:57,844 Speaker 1: I do want to talk some politics, Nate, and let's 333 00:17:57,884 --> 00:18:14,844 Speaker 1: do that after the break. We are now one week 334 00:18:15,204 --> 00:18:18,084 Speaker 1: closer to the election, and I know, I know that 335 00:18:18,124 --> 00:18:20,404 Speaker 1: sounds dramatic, but I mean it's it's getting you know, 336 00:18:20,404 --> 00:18:23,524 Speaker 1: it's getting close, right, We're we're almost are we in October? Yet? 337 00:18:23,684 --> 00:18:26,284 Speaker 1: What day is it? Is it October first? Today? It's Tuesday. 338 00:18:26,804 --> 00:18:29,764 Speaker 2: It's October, which means that I'm late on the monthly 339 00:18:29,964 --> 00:18:31,684 Speaker 2: paid subscriber newsletter post. 340 00:18:31,884 --> 00:18:34,844 Speaker 1: Oh no, nay, as a paid as a paid subscriber, 341 00:18:34,964 --> 00:18:37,644 Speaker 1: I'm livid. I'm so mad that you're late on this post. 342 00:18:37,764 --> 00:18:41,444 Speaker 2: They took away the thirty first Oh no, September doesn't 343 00:18:41,484 --> 00:18:43,564 Speaker 2: September seem like it should be thirty one? 344 00:18:43,644 --> 00:18:46,364 Speaker 1: It actually it actually does seem that way. But I 345 00:18:46,484 --> 00:18:48,244 Speaker 1: and you know what, I never remember. I actually have 346 00:18:48,284 --> 00:18:50,124 Speaker 1: to do the little rhyme. Did you ever learn that 347 00:18:50,124 --> 00:18:53,684 Speaker 1: little rhyme in school? Can I do do that? Yeah? Yeah, 348 00:18:53,684 --> 00:18:55,244 Speaker 1: I do the finger thing, but I also have my 349 00:18:55,284 --> 00:18:58,164 Speaker 1: little rhyme. Thirty days has September, April, June, and November 350 00:18:58,444 --> 00:18:59,484 Speaker 1: all thirty one? 351 00:18:59,524 --> 00:19:03,204 Speaker 2: What month shouldn't have a thirty first day? Should we 352 00:19:03,244 --> 00:19:04,044 Speaker 2: give to September? 353 00:19:05,284 --> 00:19:10,204 Speaker 1: I say, I would say, I would say either say. 354 00:19:10,044 --> 00:19:14,564 Speaker 2: November or yeah, let's get rid of that November. 355 00:19:14,644 --> 00:19:15,964 Speaker 1: November is a pretty shitty life. 356 00:19:16,084 --> 00:19:20,324 Speaker 2: Yeah, November is thirty one. Yeah, November should be thirty. 357 00:19:21,044 --> 00:19:23,124 Speaker 1: Wait, no, does November have thirty? November has thirty? I 358 00:19:23,164 --> 00:19:25,684 Speaker 1: just gave my rim. Thirty days has September, April, JUNEA, November. 359 00:19:25,764 --> 00:19:28,284 Speaker 1: November already has thirty. I hate November so much that 360 00:19:28,364 --> 00:19:29,964 Speaker 1: I wanted to subtract yet another one. 361 00:19:30,084 --> 00:19:33,484 Speaker 2: All right, okay, November has twenty nine days now? 362 00:19:35,484 --> 00:19:39,244 Speaker 1: All right, November has twenty nine days. September has thirty one. Done, guys, 363 00:19:39,244 --> 00:19:41,604 Speaker 1: we've made your life so much better this is. This 364 00:19:41,684 --> 00:19:43,524 Speaker 1: is what you come to us for. This is the 365 00:19:43,564 --> 00:19:44,404 Speaker 1: hard hitting news. 366 00:19:44,604 --> 00:19:47,044 Speaker 2: Tuesday, September thirty, first edition. 367 00:19:46,964 --> 00:19:53,124 Speaker 1: Of Risky Business. But okay, let's let's get to it. 368 00:19:53,164 --> 00:19:57,964 Speaker 1: We're in October, we're getting close. What's going on? Has 369 00:19:57,964 --> 00:20:01,364 Speaker 1: anything changed? And then let's talk about, you know, what 370 00:20:01,444 --> 00:20:04,244 Speaker 1: people can be doing in this lead up where we're 371 00:20:04,524 --> 00:20:07,164 Speaker 1: now like weeks away from the actual election. 372 00:20:08,084 --> 00:20:12,244 Speaker 2: So not very much has changed. Kamala Harris has a 373 00:20:12,764 --> 00:20:16,204 Speaker 2: three point lead roughly in national polls. She is ahead 374 00:20:16,244 --> 00:20:19,724 Speaker 2: by about a point in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. She's 375 00:20:19,764 --> 00:20:25,364 Speaker 2: behind by about a point in Georgia, Arizona, she's tied 376 00:20:25,684 --> 00:20:28,524 Speaker 2: nets ahead by a pointer. So Nevada in North Carolina 377 00:20:30,124 --> 00:20:32,924 Speaker 2: about about a tie, big hurricane. The more important thing 378 00:20:32,964 --> 00:20:40,324 Speaker 2: is Nevada. Nevada is there like the silver state. I 379 00:20:40,324 --> 00:20:41,244 Speaker 2: can just say the silver state. 380 00:20:41,324 --> 00:20:46,364 Speaker 1: Silver. There you go, yeah, so please continue. 381 00:20:47,164 --> 00:20:49,324 Speaker 2: All that works out to basically a toss up if 382 00:20:49,364 --> 00:20:51,804 Speaker 2: you want to play the percentages, we have Harris at 383 00:20:51,844 --> 00:20:55,764 Speaker 2: blue a fifty five point one percent chance I win 384 00:20:55,844 --> 00:21:00,084 Speaker 2: the electoral College as of this morning, Trump forty four 385 00:21:00,084 --> 00:21:04,284 Speaker 2: point seven dead heat a tie zero point three percent. 386 00:21:04,804 --> 00:21:07,284 Speaker 2: Uh like hitting I don't know what bet is three 387 00:21:07,364 --> 00:21:09,684 Speaker 2: hundred one. I was gonna say, like hitting the double 388 00:21:09,764 --> 00:21:11,604 Speaker 2: zero space in your life, but that's much more likely 389 00:21:11,604 --> 00:21:18,004 Speaker 2: than op point three percent. Yeah, so look, I think 390 00:21:18,044 --> 00:21:22,444 Speaker 2: if the election were held today, then you'd slightly rather 391 00:21:22,524 --> 00:21:28,164 Speaker 2: be Harris. She is uh ahead in nominally enough states 392 00:21:28,204 --> 00:21:34,684 Speaker 2: to win two hundred and seventy six electoral votes, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, 393 00:21:34,684 --> 00:21:40,324 Speaker 2: and the Silver state Nevada. Is it Nevada or Nevada? Nevada? 394 00:21:40,324 --> 00:21:40,844 Speaker 1: Nevada? 395 00:21:41,684 --> 00:21:44,244 Speaker 2: Okay, so it's not Sierra Nevada. That's it's not the 396 00:21:44,244 --> 00:21:52,844 Speaker 2: fancy Nevada. Oh boy, Nevada is a pretty word, it is. 397 00:21:52,924 --> 00:21:55,244 Speaker 1: I actually prefer Nevada, but I will. 398 00:21:55,324 --> 00:21:57,684 Speaker 2: There's this really good substack post where they rate the 399 00:21:57,764 --> 00:22:00,404 Speaker 2: state names, and like, most state names are pretty fucking good. 400 00:22:00,404 --> 00:22:02,484 Speaker 2: You know, a great name is what California? What a 401 00:22:02,484 --> 00:22:03,164 Speaker 2: great fucking. 402 00:22:03,004 --> 00:22:05,724 Speaker 1: Name it is? It is? It really does give you 403 00:22:05,844 --> 00:22:10,644 Speaker 1: promises of you know, beauty and sunshine. Californ rolls off. 404 00:22:11,564 --> 00:22:13,764 Speaker 2: What's the worst state name according to subsect post. 405 00:22:14,004 --> 00:22:14,444 Speaker 1: I don't know. 406 00:22:15,244 --> 00:22:19,804 Speaker 2: Iowa, Okay, think about it. There aren't that many bad 407 00:22:19,844 --> 00:22:22,644 Speaker 2: state names. Yeah, if I mean, you know, a low 408 00:22:22,684 --> 00:22:27,084 Speaker 2: key bad state name is Washington, Like, I mean, yeah, maybe, 409 00:22:27,124 --> 00:22:30,884 Speaker 2: I mean, come on, wonderful state. Yeah, yeah, you're way far. 410 00:22:31,284 --> 00:22:34,684 Speaker 2: You create confusion with Washington DC. You weren't even part 411 00:22:34,684 --> 00:22:38,444 Speaker 2: of the Republic when Washington was president. I mean, come on, right, Like, 412 00:22:38,524 --> 00:22:39,084 Speaker 2: let's pick. 413 00:22:39,004 --> 00:22:43,244 Speaker 1: It's also you're right, and the level of creativity there 414 00:22:43,284 --> 00:22:45,804 Speaker 1: has really just like gone down. Why did we Why 415 00:22:45,804 --> 00:22:47,884 Speaker 1: did we have to go for Washington. I'd like to 416 00:22:47,924 --> 00:22:49,724 Speaker 1: know the history of this because I love Washington. I 417 00:22:49,764 --> 00:22:53,644 Speaker 1: think it's such a gorgeous state. So other than state names, 418 00:22:53,964 --> 00:22:57,564 Speaker 1: I do think something that you said kind of gets 419 00:22:57,604 --> 00:22:59,604 Speaker 1: into one of the one of the topics that we 420 00:22:59,644 --> 00:23:02,204 Speaker 1: wanted to cover today, which is what actually matters. So 421 00:23:02,244 --> 00:23:05,604 Speaker 1: we've had some pretty severe storms right over the last 422 00:23:06,524 --> 00:23:11,004 Speaker 1: week with a lot of destruction. The death toll keeps rising. 423 00:23:11,324 --> 00:23:16,404 Speaker 1: I mean, it's really horrific. Do things like that in 424 00:23:16,484 --> 00:23:18,644 Speaker 1: the lead up I'm not talking like a year ago, 425 00:23:18,924 --> 00:23:21,404 Speaker 1: right Does the fact that this is happening right now? 426 00:23:21,844 --> 00:23:25,084 Speaker 1: Do events like that actually matter when it comes to 427 00:23:26,044 --> 00:23:30,804 Speaker 1: the election outcomes? Does the response matter, like what's actually 428 00:23:30,844 --> 00:23:31,724 Speaker 1: important or not? 429 00:23:32,764 --> 00:23:35,044 Speaker 2: Well, clearly the candidates think it matters because there's a 430 00:23:35,084 --> 00:23:39,604 Speaker 2: lot of posturing over you know, Trump, as he is 431 00:23:39,924 --> 00:23:44,004 Speaker 2: inclined to do, is saying some things that seem exaggerated 432 00:23:44,044 --> 00:23:46,884 Speaker 2: according to the fact checkers. No, but like he's he's 433 00:23:46,884 --> 00:23:49,084 Speaker 2: saying that why isn't Biden going there and why's he 434 00:23:49,124 --> 00:23:51,924 Speaker 2: holding up relieve But the Hairris Biden administration, Biden Hairs 435 00:23:51,964 --> 00:23:55,564 Speaker 2: administration has approved relief funds and they're trying to get 436 00:23:55,604 --> 00:23:58,284 Speaker 2: there and the roads are out and I don't know right, 437 00:23:58,644 --> 00:24:01,284 Speaker 2: So it becomes as kind of like another cable news 438 00:24:01,324 --> 00:24:03,764 Speaker 2: cycle where you just want to tune out. But clearly, 439 00:24:03,804 --> 00:24:08,004 Speaker 2: like I mean, there are precedents. After Hurricane Sandy hit 440 00:24:08,164 --> 00:24:10,644 Speaker 2: New Jersey in the East coast, was in late twenty twelve, 441 00:24:11,564 --> 00:24:15,124 Speaker 2: and the Obama and New York I remember power, it 442 00:24:15,204 --> 00:24:16,244 Speaker 2: was fucking I didn't. 443 00:24:16,004 --> 00:24:17,924 Speaker 1: Have I didn't have sweet, I didn't have power, and 444 00:24:17,964 --> 00:24:18,924 Speaker 1: I didn't have cell service. 445 00:24:19,004 --> 00:24:20,364 Speaker 2: I had to go like back and forth to the 446 00:24:20,364 --> 00:24:25,004 Speaker 2: New York Times building in like this darkened tax anyway. Yeah, 447 00:24:25,164 --> 00:24:28,164 Speaker 2: but like Obama did better in some of these areas 448 00:24:28,164 --> 00:24:31,684 Speaker 2: where the storms had hit. So there's like a bipartisan 449 00:24:31,724 --> 00:24:33,764 Speaker 2: praise for a leader that can be good if it's 450 00:24:33,804 --> 00:24:37,404 Speaker 2: Hurricane Katrina and it's by partisan disputes for how it 451 00:24:37,524 --> 00:24:39,324 Speaker 2: was handled. Right, then that could be bad. I mean 452 00:24:39,364 --> 00:24:42,524 Speaker 2: I researched some papers for this. Uh you know, some 453 00:24:42,604 --> 00:24:45,164 Speaker 2: findings say it tends to help incumbents, which would be 454 00:24:45,164 --> 00:24:48,164 Speaker 2: good for Biden. Some just say it is more polarization, 455 00:24:48,644 --> 00:24:51,804 Speaker 2: that it just increases. You know, Team read thinks that 456 00:24:51,884 --> 00:24:54,924 Speaker 2: Republicans did this well on Team Blue, things Democrats did well, 457 00:24:54,964 --> 00:24:55,444 Speaker 2: et cetera. 458 00:24:55,924 --> 00:24:57,764 Speaker 1: So then it's a kind of in the art. 459 00:24:58,844 --> 00:25:03,564 Speaker 2: I would say, Look in general, Uh, this is a moment, 460 00:25:03,684 --> 00:25:08,724 Speaker 2: natural discessary moment when you appreciate having the government in 461 00:25:08,764 --> 00:25:10,844 Speaker 2: your life. Right at least they don't totally fuck up 462 00:25:10,884 --> 00:25:12,924 Speaker 2: the recovery. So if you're like a little bit a 463 00:25:12,964 --> 00:25:16,484 Speaker 2: little bit of a closet libertarian like me, then like 464 00:25:16,524 --> 00:25:18,964 Speaker 2: when there's a fucking hurricane or a snowstorm, you know, 465 00:25:18,964 --> 00:25:22,124 Speaker 2: like I'm really fucking glad that there are trucks plowing 466 00:25:22,124 --> 00:25:26,604 Speaker 2: the roads and we're not in some libertarian utopia where 467 00:25:26,644 --> 00:25:28,404 Speaker 2: we have to pay for private to trucks or something, 468 00:25:28,444 --> 00:25:32,364 Speaker 2: you know what I mean. So that might be good 469 00:25:32,364 --> 00:25:35,884 Speaker 2: for Democrats. It also raises the salience of climate change. 470 00:25:35,884 --> 00:25:38,644 Speaker 2: I don't want to get into a discussion over which 471 00:25:38,684 --> 00:25:41,484 Speaker 2: hurricanes are caused by climate change or the different effects 472 00:25:41,524 --> 00:25:44,804 Speaker 2: of hurricanes. But you know, you have had more storms 473 00:25:44,804 --> 00:25:47,844 Speaker 2: with this very bad inland flooding. And again I'll leave 474 00:25:47,884 --> 00:25:50,844 Speaker 2: it to the experts to determine how much that is 475 00:25:50,884 --> 00:25:54,924 Speaker 2: because of building patterns versus climate change versus luck basically. 476 00:25:55,204 --> 00:25:59,884 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, but maybe worth noting that in this particular case. Also, 477 00:25:59,924 --> 00:26:03,324 Speaker 1: North Carolina is a swing state, right so, and Georgia 478 00:26:03,444 --> 00:26:06,364 Speaker 1: was and Georgia was affected as well, and Georgia is 479 00:26:06,964 --> 00:26:09,604 Speaker 1: sorry I forgot your latest update. Georgia is still leaning red. 480 00:26:10,204 --> 00:26:13,524 Speaker 2: By points ahead, by point ish there, point and a 481 00:26:13,564 --> 00:26:14,364 Speaker 2: half maybe. 482 00:26:14,204 --> 00:26:17,564 Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, so this will be interesting. I think. I 483 00:26:17,604 --> 00:26:19,764 Speaker 1: hope people are gathering data on this, and I hope 484 00:26:19,764 --> 00:26:21,804 Speaker 1: that there are some polling going on right now, because 485 00:26:21,964 --> 00:26:24,524 Speaker 1: I'd be very curious because I do think that these 486 00:26:24,564 --> 00:26:29,004 Speaker 1: sorts of events do happen, and will continue happening, and 487 00:26:29,044 --> 00:26:32,644 Speaker 1: will increase in severity. So it is interesting for me 488 00:26:32,724 --> 00:26:36,644 Speaker 1: to see whether they will matter. But now there's obviously 489 00:26:36,684 --> 00:26:40,684 Speaker 1: nothing that we as individuals can do about that, right Like, 490 00:26:40,764 --> 00:26:44,724 Speaker 1: that's you know, the environment. It happens, and here the 491 00:26:44,804 --> 00:26:48,484 Speaker 1: politician's response may or may not matter. But what about 492 00:26:48,564 --> 00:26:51,724 Speaker 1: people on either side of the divide, you know, Trump supporters, 493 00:26:51,764 --> 00:26:56,124 Speaker 1: Hair supporters who want to make sure that they're doing 494 00:26:56,204 --> 00:26:59,604 Speaker 1: everything they can in the run up to try to 495 00:26:59,644 --> 00:27:01,844 Speaker 1: get kind of the voters that may be on the 496 00:27:01,884 --> 00:27:04,484 Speaker 1: fence or undecided or don't know if they're going to 497 00:27:04,564 --> 00:27:07,444 Speaker 1: vote or or what not to actually vote. What matters, 498 00:27:07,484 --> 00:27:10,404 Speaker 1: donations matter, going door to door, does that matter? Do 499 00:27:10,524 --> 00:27:13,204 Speaker 1: any of these things actually make a meaningful difference or 500 00:27:13,244 --> 00:27:15,164 Speaker 1: do they just make us feel a little bit better, 501 00:27:15,204 --> 00:27:17,364 Speaker 1: like recycling, which doesn't actually matter. 502 00:27:18,524 --> 00:27:23,564 Speaker 2: What helps is being a dick on social media really 503 00:27:23,604 --> 00:27:25,924 Speaker 2: helps your candidate wins. So do more. Do more of that. 504 00:27:26,924 --> 00:27:29,484 Speaker 2: By the way, if you want to donate to charity 505 00:27:29,524 --> 00:27:31,884 Speaker 2: to help the people in the Carolinas, et cetera, then 506 00:27:32,684 --> 00:27:36,044 Speaker 2: would recommend charitynavigator dot org gives you a whole list 507 00:27:36,044 --> 00:27:38,684 Speaker 2: of local charities which are usually more effective than That's 508 00:27:38,724 --> 00:27:40,364 Speaker 2: a little affective altruism. 509 00:27:40,524 --> 00:27:42,924 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a that's a that's a great recommendation. 510 00:27:45,284 --> 00:27:50,484 Speaker 2: So look, I think that the presidential campaigns have more 511 00:27:50,524 --> 00:27:52,964 Speaker 2: money than they need. And this is not me in 512 00:27:52,964 --> 00:27:55,484 Speaker 2: a crotchety way. It's saying, like, you know, they are 513 00:27:55,564 --> 00:27:57,084 Speaker 2: running all the ads they want to the point where 514 00:27:57,084 --> 00:27:59,044 Speaker 2: the ads have diminishing returns. They have all the field 515 00:27:59,084 --> 00:28:01,884 Speaker 2: staff they want. Maybe if you started out with all 516 00:28:01,924 --> 00:28:04,004 Speaker 2: the money four years ahead of time, you could do 517 00:28:04,044 --> 00:28:06,524 Speaker 2: more ambitious things and so forth. But like they don't 518 00:28:06,524 --> 00:28:11,684 Speaker 2: donate to a presidential campaign, donate to a down ballot campaign. 519 00:28:11,684 --> 00:28:13,764 Speaker 2: Maybe a senate campaigns and campaigns have a lot of 520 00:28:13,804 --> 00:28:19,284 Speaker 2: money too, but you know, us House races, state Supreme 521 00:28:19,284 --> 00:28:24,764 Speaker 2: Court races, state legislature races, right, these are cases where 522 00:28:25,004 --> 00:28:27,644 Speaker 2: where a little bit of money can make more difference. 523 00:28:27,684 --> 00:28:29,164 Speaker 2: By the way, I think in general, I don't think 524 00:28:29,164 --> 00:28:33,084 Speaker 2: that political donations count particularly. I don't mean it like 525 00:28:33,084 --> 00:28:35,764 Speaker 2: a moral way. I think they're probably you know, donate 526 00:28:35,804 --> 00:28:42,524 Speaker 2: to charity instead of a campaign is also a balid strategy. 527 00:28:43,284 --> 00:28:47,804 Speaker 2: Most campaigns believe that door to door canvassing can help 528 00:28:47,844 --> 00:28:51,684 Speaker 2: a bit. One thing that happened in twenty twenty is 529 00:28:51,724 --> 00:28:57,364 Speaker 2: that Democrats were COVID shy and did not do traditional canvassing, 530 00:28:57,444 --> 00:29:00,684 Speaker 2: and lo and behold, Biden underfirms his polls by a 531 00:29:00,724 --> 00:29:03,124 Speaker 2: few points on election day. And I'm not saying it's 532 00:29:03,124 --> 00:29:05,524 Speaker 2: a major cause, but like that may have been a 533 00:29:05,564 --> 00:29:06,124 Speaker 2: mistake in. 534 00:29:06,524 --> 00:29:10,964 Speaker 1: Retrospect, So that's to suggest, because I was about to say, 535 00:29:10,964 --> 00:29:13,804 Speaker 1: are there are there data that suggests that pultiple that 536 00:29:13,844 --> 00:29:17,764 Speaker 1: pultiple that door to door polling and canvassing and all 537 00:29:17,804 --> 00:29:21,444 Speaker 1: of that actually is effective or is it just that 538 00:29:21,564 --> 00:29:24,484 Speaker 1: politicians believe this and it's never been challenged. Do we 539 00:29:24,484 --> 00:29:25,804 Speaker 1: have do we actually have data? 540 00:29:25,924 --> 00:29:28,364 Speaker 2: I think that's more studiable because you can kind of 541 00:29:28,644 --> 00:29:33,204 Speaker 2: it's clearly studyable. I think the academic consensus that it 542 00:29:33,204 --> 00:29:33,924 Speaker 2: does help a little bit. 543 00:29:33,884 --> 00:29:36,444 Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, so on the margin it helps, which is important, 544 00:29:36,484 --> 00:29:39,044 Speaker 1: right because right now we're looking for on the margin. 545 00:29:39,204 --> 00:29:41,684 Speaker 1: So for either candidate, on the margin, it should help. 546 00:29:42,964 --> 00:29:46,044 Speaker 1: What about endorsements, So you know, we talked a few 547 00:29:46,084 --> 00:29:52,004 Speaker 1: weeks ago Taylor Swift obviously was a major endorsement. Do 548 00:29:52,164 --> 00:29:56,364 Speaker 1: those things matter? Does it matter? Obviously? Like there are 549 00:29:56,524 --> 00:29:59,084 Speaker 1: levels of endorsement, right, Like at some point I saw 550 00:29:59,124 --> 00:30:02,844 Speaker 1: the Kamala Harris campaign retweeting that, like, Meryl Streep has 551 00:30:02,924 --> 00:30:04,484 Speaker 1: endorsed her and this is huge. I'm like, I don't 552 00:30:04,484 --> 00:30:08,284 Speaker 1: think Meryl Streep's endorsement matters. I'm sorry, I love you, 553 00:30:08,364 --> 00:30:10,644 Speaker 1: Meryl Streep, but like I don't think that's going to 554 00:30:10,724 --> 00:30:11,324 Speaker 1: move the needle. 555 00:30:11,524 --> 00:30:14,284 Speaker 2: But someone It's like when they say somebody that dies 556 00:30:14,324 --> 00:30:16,964 Speaker 2: and you're like, I thought they're already dead, right right, 557 00:30:17,124 --> 00:30:19,244 Speaker 2: It's like I thought Meryl's she already endorsed, and that's 558 00:30:19,404 --> 00:30:25,004 Speaker 2: party true right for Tayte too, is uh. I think 559 00:30:25,004 --> 00:30:29,404 Speaker 2: people assume that she was on the Harris badwagon already. 560 00:30:29,404 --> 00:30:32,124 Speaker 2: I mean, look, she apparently drove some voter registration efforts 561 00:30:32,124 --> 00:30:34,884 Speaker 2: and things like that, and so yeah, look, you you 562 00:30:34,964 --> 00:30:38,124 Speaker 2: definitely take that if you're if you're Harris, right, but 563 00:30:38,164 --> 00:30:40,164 Speaker 2: if like, but it's not like you see like a 564 00:30:40,164 --> 00:30:41,764 Speaker 2: big I mean, it's completive because it happened about the 565 00:30:41,804 --> 00:30:45,084 Speaker 2: same time as a debate, but it's you know, the 566 00:30:45,084 --> 00:30:46,924 Speaker 2: biggest pop star in the world endorses and you can 567 00:30:46,964 --> 00:30:50,324 Speaker 2: barely see any difference if any of the polls. So 568 00:30:50,404 --> 00:30:51,764 Speaker 2: that puts kind of a cap. 569 00:30:51,564 --> 00:30:56,964 Speaker 1: On Sure, what I was actually wondering if maybe the 570 00:30:57,124 --> 00:31:00,244 Speaker 1: endorsement you said something which I think is really important, 571 00:31:00,244 --> 00:31:02,964 Speaker 1: which is that most people kind of already assumed right 572 00:31:03,004 --> 00:31:06,004 Speaker 1: that that she was going to be team Harris because 573 00:31:06,004 --> 00:31:08,684 Speaker 1: she had endorsed Biden. She had already kind of broken 574 00:31:08,724 --> 00:31:12,644 Speaker 1: her silence. But what about things like and here, I 575 00:31:12,644 --> 00:31:15,644 Speaker 1: think there's some really interesting psych research. What about things 576 00:31:15,644 --> 00:31:19,964 Speaker 1: like Willie Nelson endorsing the Democrats, right, Like you have 577 00:31:20,084 --> 00:31:23,764 Speaker 1: a white country singer, Like when you have people who 578 00:31:24,604 --> 00:31:28,484 Speaker 1: look and sound and kind of have the background of 579 00:31:28,524 --> 00:31:33,044 Speaker 1: someone who would more traditionally be a Trump supporter, do 580 00:31:33,084 --> 00:31:35,484 Speaker 1: we think that that actually might matter a little bit 581 00:31:35,484 --> 00:31:39,204 Speaker 1: more than a Taylor Swift in these particular circumstances. 582 00:31:42,684 --> 00:31:46,044 Speaker 2: I mean, look, people know that the Hollywood types. You know, 583 00:31:46,084 --> 00:31:47,564 Speaker 2: I guess it's a singer, not a Hollywood type. I 584 00:31:47,604 --> 00:31:49,404 Speaker 2: take it. Maybe, I don't know. I mean, you know, 585 00:31:49,444 --> 00:31:53,124 Speaker 2: what probably did matter was, by the way, William Nelson 586 00:31:53,364 --> 00:31:55,524 Speaker 2: has quite a beautiful catalog of music going back along 587 00:31:55,564 --> 00:31:57,764 Speaker 2: way anyway, love it. 588 00:31:57,924 --> 00:31:59,724 Speaker 1: I love the editorializing on this. 589 00:31:59,724 --> 00:32:03,044 Speaker 2: Thus an endorsement in the race so far has probably 590 00:32:03,084 --> 00:32:08,684 Speaker 2: been RFK Junior endorsing endorsement cocided with a rough period 591 00:32:08,684 --> 00:32:11,244 Speaker 2: for Harris and the holes and like you know, and 592 00:32:11,284 --> 00:32:14,204 Speaker 2: those are those voters are lost, And I think so 593 00:32:14,244 --> 00:32:17,284 Speaker 2: that might have mattered a fair bit. Yeah, I mean 594 00:32:17,324 --> 00:32:19,324 Speaker 2: by half a point or something, but like half which. 595 00:32:19,164 --> 00:32:21,404 Speaker 1: Is important, which is which is really important, as we 596 00:32:21,604 --> 00:32:25,084 Speaker 1: keep talking about. And there's also some psych research that's 597 00:32:25,124 --> 00:32:28,404 Speaker 1: really interesting into kind of the psychology of social influence 598 00:32:28,604 --> 00:32:33,364 Speaker 1: and having an effect on social norms and behavior. And 599 00:32:33,484 --> 00:32:37,844 Speaker 1: a lot of this research comes from Princeton University Betsy Pollock. 600 00:32:38,124 --> 00:32:40,724 Speaker 1: She won the MacArthur Genius Grant a number of years 601 00:32:40,764 --> 00:32:43,484 Speaker 1: ago for this work. And some of the stuff that 602 00:32:43,524 --> 00:32:47,164 Speaker 1: she shows is that you know, you need to have 603 00:32:47,404 --> 00:32:50,644 Speaker 1: the correct person say things, and they have to actually 604 00:32:50,724 --> 00:32:53,684 Speaker 1: be kind of from the background and kind of from 605 00:32:54,244 --> 00:32:58,324 Speaker 1: the from from a place that people who you're trying 606 00:32:58,324 --> 00:33:01,564 Speaker 1: to influence actually respect. Right, So, if you're trying to 607 00:33:01,604 --> 00:33:05,764 Speaker 1: influence potential Trump voters to vote for Kamala Harris, then 608 00:33:05,804 --> 00:33:09,284 Speaker 1: you want to be probably a white male from so 609 00:33:09,404 --> 00:33:12,284 Speaker 1: certain states with a certain background. If you want to 610 00:33:12,324 --> 00:33:17,044 Speaker 1: try to get Trump voters, if you want to get 611 00:33:17,284 --> 00:33:20,964 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris voters to vote for Trump, you probably want 612 00:33:21,364 --> 00:33:27,284 Speaker 1: someone who you know is a minority or you know female, 613 00:33:28,164 --> 00:33:31,124 Speaker 1: some you know someone someone who has kind of more 614 00:33:31,124 --> 00:33:35,644 Speaker 1: of a Kamala Harris vibe and then have them endorse Trump. 615 00:33:36,004 --> 00:33:38,844 Speaker 1: That would matter more. There was a really cool study 616 00:33:38,844 --> 00:33:43,204 Speaker 1: that was done on social media to see like basically, 617 00:33:43,684 --> 00:33:45,964 Speaker 1: what can you do to mitigate trolls? Right, Like, how 618 00:33:45,964 --> 00:33:49,244 Speaker 1: can you get people to change behavior? And the one 619 00:33:49,284 --> 00:33:52,684 Speaker 1: thing that actually worked the best was if you create 620 00:33:52,724 --> 00:33:56,764 Speaker 1: an account that's like a generic white man and he says, hey, like, 621 00:33:57,364 --> 00:34:00,084 Speaker 1: you know, this is a real person, like just you 622 00:34:00,164 --> 00:34:02,044 Speaker 1: might want to tone it down a little bit. That 623 00:34:02,124 --> 00:34:06,644 Speaker 1: actually worked as opposed to anything else. So it's I 624 00:34:06,684 --> 00:34:11,324 Speaker 1: think that when we talk about endorsements, they're not all 625 00:34:11,364 --> 00:34:14,684 Speaker 1: created equal, not just because of the reach like oh 626 00:34:14,684 --> 00:34:17,564 Speaker 1: you're a superstar, you're a pop star, but also like 627 00:34:17,844 --> 00:34:21,484 Speaker 1: who is your demographic, who do you represent? What is 628 00:34:21,524 --> 00:34:26,484 Speaker 1: your specific you know, voter appeal, and will you be 629 00:34:26,564 --> 00:34:30,924 Speaker 1: able to look like a person of authority to the 630 00:34:30,964 --> 00:34:32,084 Speaker 1: voters that you're trying to reach. 631 00:34:32,284 --> 00:34:36,644 Speaker 2: Two other important stories that I think we can't not mention. 632 00:34:37,644 --> 00:34:40,524 Speaker 2: Let me start with one that's like a bit less obvious. 633 00:34:40,644 --> 00:34:43,684 Speaker 2: Port workers have gone on strike in both the East 634 00:34:43,684 --> 00:34:48,524 Speaker 2: Coast and the Gulf Coast. Something some enormous amount of 635 00:34:48,524 --> 00:34:52,164 Speaker 2: commerce passes through one of these ports, and this could 636 00:34:52,164 --> 00:34:57,884 Speaker 2: potentially have a devastating effect on the economy and shipping, 637 00:34:57,924 --> 00:35:02,164 Speaker 2: which is already already a little bit constrained because you 638 00:35:02,204 --> 00:35:04,804 Speaker 2: have problems with the hootis in the Red Sea? Is 639 00:35:04,804 --> 00:35:08,124 Speaker 2: that right? So you already have like some shipping channels 640 00:35:08,124 --> 00:35:10,604 Speaker 2: that are operating a less of capacity that more kind 641 00:35:10,644 --> 00:35:15,084 Speaker 2: of affects Europe than the US. But supply chains have 642 00:35:15,164 --> 00:35:17,364 Speaker 2: struggled to get back to normal and this could cause 643 00:35:18,044 --> 00:35:20,164 Speaker 2: big problems, yes, but hurricane and things like that that's 644 00:35:20,204 --> 00:35:24,964 Speaker 2: affected So so you know, this is a real dilemma 645 00:35:25,124 --> 00:35:28,964 Speaker 2: for a Democratic white House. Biden has said he does 646 00:35:29,004 --> 00:35:32,244 Speaker 2: not want to invoke the Taft Hartley Act that could 647 00:35:32,324 --> 00:35:36,284 Speaker 2: require these striking workers to go back to work. But 648 00:35:36,324 --> 00:35:39,004 Speaker 2: they have a lot of leverage, right, They're like, well, 649 00:35:39,404 --> 00:35:42,244 Speaker 2: fuck your election up unless you give us a nice 650 00:35:42,284 --> 00:35:45,404 Speaker 2: new contract. And I mean that's we understand leverage, right, 651 00:35:45,444 --> 00:35:48,204 Speaker 2: And they have a lot of leverage. So far, the 652 00:35:48,204 --> 00:35:53,444 Speaker 2: Biden Whitehouse has been able to placate problems like this 653 00:35:53,524 --> 00:35:55,164 Speaker 2: in the past. Like that to me is like a 654 00:35:55,164 --> 00:36:01,244 Speaker 2: potential October surprise that that has to play negatively for 655 00:36:01,244 --> 00:36:02,164 Speaker 2: for Harris and Biden. 656 00:36:02,324 --> 00:36:05,284 Speaker 1: Absolutely, And if we just like a little caveat I 657 00:36:05,284 --> 00:36:09,924 Speaker 1: think tie into endorsements given that this is kind of 658 00:36:09,924 --> 00:36:12,724 Speaker 1: a workers strike, is that the Teamsters Union did not 659 00:36:13,244 --> 00:36:16,324 Speaker 1: endorse either Canada for the first time in a long time. 660 00:36:16,684 --> 00:36:19,844 Speaker 1: So just something to keep in mind as we as 661 00:36:19,844 --> 00:36:21,964 Speaker 1: we think about this October surprise potentially. 662 00:36:23,884 --> 00:36:27,404 Speaker 2: Yeah, probably most Teamster members are are Trump. 663 00:36:28,804 --> 00:36:32,524 Speaker 1: Yeah, it was actually Teamsters are leaning more Trump, even 664 00:36:32,524 --> 00:36:34,844 Speaker 1: though the Teamsters have endorsed the Democrats in the past, 665 00:36:35,644 --> 00:36:38,684 Speaker 1: and the latest survey data that I've seen the Teamsters 666 00:36:38,684 --> 00:36:40,404 Speaker 1: are heavily leaning Trump. 667 00:36:43,404 --> 00:36:47,364 Speaker 2: The other, of course, is the re escalating conflict in 668 00:36:47,404 --> 00:36:51,724 Speaker 2: the Middle East. That's a little harder to yep, predict, right, 669 00:36:51,804 --> 00:36:56,964 Speaker 2: it's opportunities to show leadership potentially. But look, I mean, 670 00:36:57,324 --> 00:37:01,004 Speaker 2: you can make an argument that, like, foreign policy has 671 00:37:01,044 --> 00:37:04,924 Speaker 2: not gone that well under Biden. The Middle East is 672 00:37:05,044 --> 00:37:10,204 Speaker 2: kind of blowing up, and you know, Ukraine was invaded, 673 00:37:10,604 --> 00:37:14,924 Speaker 2: American relations with China are probably worse now than they were. 674 00:37:16,324 --> 00:37:22,604 Speaker 2: You know, if Trump were more coherent and normal, then 675 00:37:22,684 --> 00:37:26,244 Speaker 2: he could form a pretty good critique of Biden's foreign policy, 676 00:37:26,564 --> 00:37:30,284 Speaker 2: I think. And as a reminder of that now, voters 677 00:37:30,364 --> 00:37:34,044 Speaker 2: usually don't care about foreign policy that much. To the 678 00:37:34,084 --> 00:37:38,124 Speaker 2: extent that they do, it's kind of about I was 679 00:37:38,124 --> 00:37:40,404 Speaker 2: gonna say that, you know that it's the politics of 680 00:37:41,164 --> 00:37:43,404 Speaker 2: It's not the foreign policy, right, it's the politics of 681 00:37:44,644 --> 00:37:47,604 Speaker 2: the state of Israel and how they exist or failed 682 00:37:47,604 --> 00:37:51,244 Speaker 2: to coexist with Palestinians and like, and that's territory where 683 00:37:51,244 --> 00:37:53,044 Speaker 2: we you know, I have written about that sum because 684 00:37:53,084 --> 00:37:56,164 Speaker 2: it like effects American politics so much. You know, that 685 00:37:56,284 --> 00:37:59,764 Speaker 2: seemed to have died down to some degree, although although 686 00:38:00,284 --> 00:38:02,764 Speaker 2: you know two percent of the population is Arab American 687 00:38:02,804 --> 00:38:06,884 Speaker 2: and Michigan around the Dearborn area, there clearly have been 688 00:38:06,924 --> 00:38:09,164 Speaker 2: signs and polls that shifted from being a Democratic vote 689 00:38:09,204 --> 00:38:12,284 Speaker 2: to people who are throwing their hands up and saying 690 00:38:12,324 --> 00:38:15,044 Speaker 2: I don't know what I'm going to do, So that 691 00:38:15,084 --> 00:38:17,084 Speaker 2: has an effect on the margin. But like, but anyway, 692 00:38:17,124 --> 00:38:18,964 Speaker 2: I just want to mention those two important stories. 693 00:38:19,044 --> 00:38:22,204 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, And I think that it is interesting to 694 00:38:22,204 --> 00:38:26,044 Speaker 1: see how much anyone thing will end up affecting any 695 00:38:26,204 --> 00:38:29,524 Speaker 1: any person's decision to vote, just because we are in 696 00:38:29,924 --> 00:38:34,124 Speaker 1: such a close race, right, so much closer than than 697 00:38:34,484 --> 00:38:38,644 Speaker 1: we have been in the past, and so I think 698 00:38:38,684 --> 00:38:42,364 Speaker 1: that those things on the margin may matter, especially when 699 00:38:42,364 --> 00:38:44,484 Speaker 1: we're talking like back to the ports. You know, I 700 00:38:44,524 --> 00:38:48,244 Speaker 1: think that oftentimes voters are not thinking that long term. 701 00:38:48,404 --> 00:38:52,364 Speaker 1: So that's why foreign policy often doesn't end up making 702 00:38:52,404 --> 00:38:55,244 Speaker 1: that big of a difference. But if we see and 703 00:38:55,364 --> 00:38:57,684 Speaker 1: I don't think I don't know if there's enough time 704 00:38:58,044 --> 00:39:00,964 Speaker 1: to actually see any change in prices, availability, et cetera. 705 00:39:01,604 --> 00:39:03,604 Speaker 1: In the next few weeks. But if we do see that, 706 00:39:03,884 --> 00:39:06,964 Speaker 1: then I think that that will become a much bigger issue. 707 00:39:07,884 --> 00:39:10,324 Speaker 2: You know, this is also a test of Biden and 708 00:39:10,364 --> 00:39:13,764 Speaker 2: his capabilities. If you have multiple crises happening at once, 709 00:39:13,884 --> 00:39:17,724 Speaker 2: you know, I mean, the media seems reluctant. I mean 710 00:39:17,764 --> 00:39:22,524 Speaker 2: once once the uh once drydent dropped out was forced 711 00:39:22,524 --> 00:39:26,124 Speaker 2: out by the way. The Dana Carvey impression of Biden 712 00:39:26,164 --> 00:39:26,924 Speaker 2: was pretty fucking good. 713 00:39:27,124 --> 00:39:29,204 Speaker 1: It was very good. Yes, if you have not seen it, 714 00:39:29,524 --> 00:39:30,884 Speaker 1: I highly endorsed that. 715 00:39:32,364 --> 00:39:34,284 Speaker 2: But like since in the media is not the very 716 00:39:34,324 --> 00:39:39,764 Speaker 2: interested in covering his performance issues, and this will be 717 00:39:39,804 --> 00:39:41,004 Speaker 2: a test I suppose. Yeah. 718 00:39:41,044 --> 00:39:48,124 Speaker 1: Absolutely. After the break, let's talk about something. Uh well, 719 00:39:48,164 --> 00:39:50,124 Speaker 1: I was going to say lighter, but it involves death, 720 00:39:50,284 --> 00:39:54,644 Speaker 1: but non politics related lighter, but it involves death. After 721 00:39:54,684 --> 00:40:11,844 Speaker 1: the break, we had two people who are quite important 722 00:40:11,844 --> 00:40:15,404 Speaker 1: in the gambling world die since you know, in the 723 00:40:15,484 --> 00:40:19,924 Speaker 1: last few days. One of those died today is what Tuesday, 724 00:40:20,004 --> 00:40:23,164 Speaker 1: so yesterday Pete Rose and he was one of the 725 00:40:23,164 --> 00:40:25,724 Speaker 1: first people we talked about on this podcast. And the 726 00:40:25,804 --> 00:40:29,524 Speaker 1: other less well known to the mainstream public, Archie Callous 727 00:40:30,764 --> 00:40:33,564 Speaker 1: Nate do you have any thoughts on the death of 728 00:40:33,564 --> 00:40:39,164 Speaker 1: Pete Rose and his legacy for the world of baseball 729 00:40:39,164 --> 00:40:40,204 Speaker 1: in the world of gambling. 730 00:40:41,364 --> 00:40:45,404 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Pete was a I never met him. 731 00:40:45,564 --> 00:40:49,284 Speaker 2: I think he was kind of the classic djen right 732 00:40:51,564 --> 00:40:53,684 Speaker 2: in Las Vegas till late in his life he did. 733 00:40:53,804 --> 00:40:56,364 Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, after he was after he was no longer 734 00:40:56,444 --> 00:40:59,004 Speaker 1: allowed to be associated with baseball, he made the move 735 00:40:59,084 --> 00:40:59,964 Speaker 1: to Las Vegas. 736 00:41:01,404 --> 00:41:05,764 Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, this was kind of, I don't know, the 737 00:41:05,844 --> 00:41:10,164 Speaker 2: end of a certain era for baseball. Suppose I mean 738 00:41:10,244 --> 00:41:12,684 Speaker 2: Pete Rose. If you're not a baseball fan, right, he 739 00:41:12,724 --> 00:41:18,124 Speaker 2: played the game differently than anyone else. Right, lots of 740 00:41:18,124 --> 00:41:20,564 Speaker 2: bass hits, lots of his the name was Charlie Hustle, Right, 741 00:41:21,244 --> 00:41:24,724 Speaker 2: would barrel into catchers and second basement. I mean he 742 00:41:24,724 --> 00:41:31,084 Speaker 2: played baseball like it was football basically. Now, people like me, 743 00:41:31,804 --> 00:41:36,284 Speaker 2: before Pete Rose was known for gambling, people like me 744 00:41:36,284 --> 00:41:39,604 Speaker 2: would I said, Oh, Pete Rose, he's a little bit overrated. Right. 745 00:41:40,684 --> 00:41:42,564 Speaker 2: It was the endly subject of you know, he does 746 00:41:42,644 --> 00:41:45,124 Speaker 2: have the most hits in Major League Baseball history. He 747 00:41:45,124 --> 00:41:47,724 Speaker 2: doesn't get on base that much and doesn't have that 748 00:41:47,804 --> 00:41:50,724 Speaker 2: much power. A very very good player, but we'd say yeah, 749 00:41:50,724 --> 00:41:52,924 Speaker 2: he's one of the twenty best of all time, but 750 00:41:52,964 --> 00:41:55,844 Speaker 2: not you know, having the hits record doesn't necessarily And 751 00:41:55,884 --> 00:42:00,324 Speaker 2: he also played forever. He played Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Montreal briefly 752 00:42:00,364 --> 00:42:03,764 Speaker 2: Cincinnati again, played until he was like forty some years old. 753 00:42:04,204 --> 00:42:10,004 Speaker 2: So beloved, right, But he clearly I think on baseball. 754 00:42:10,044 --> 00:42:12,524 Speaker 2: There's not much ambiguity about that, and baseball kind of 755 00:42:12,564 --> 00:42:17,164 Speaker 2: always was very unforgiving about ever commuting his sentence of 756 00:42:17,244 --> 00:42:19,524 Speaker 2: really letting Pete Rose participate in any ways. And I 757 00:42:20,924 --> 00:42:23,164 Speaker 2: kind of understand that, but like I'm trying to remember 758 00:42:23,204 --> 00:42:23,804 Speaker 2: some of the history. 759 00:42:24,084 --> 00:42:29,004 Speaker 1: Originally he said that he bet on other sports but 760 00:42:29,124 --> 00:42:32,364 Speaker 1: never bet on baseball. He was still found to be 761 00:42:32,444 --> 00:42:38,764 Speaker 1: guilty of betting on baseball, and he in his memoir 762 00:42:39,884 --> 00:42:43,324 Speaker 1: admitted that, yeah, he did bet on baseball, but never 763 00:42:43,364 --> 00:42:46,324 Speaker 1: for his team to lose, because he only wanted his 764 00:42:46,364 --> 00:42:50,484 Speaker 1: team to win, as if that made it any better. 765 00:42:50,644 --> 00:42:53,004 Speaker 2: But part of it is so you had this commissioner 766 00:42:53,044 --> 00:42:57,644 Speaker 2: of baseball named Bart Giamatti, who was a president of 767 00:42:57,724 --> 00:43:01,204 Speaker 2: Yale University, and like this English literature professor who was 768 00:43:01,284 --> 00:43:05,884 Speaker 2: kind of this intellectual who was going to, you know, 769 00:43:06,044 --> 00:43:08,924 Speaker 2: take baseball to some new cultural significance and he got 770 00:43:08,924 --> 00:43:12,164 Speaker 2: tied up with Pete Rose and then died of a 771 00:43:12,164 --> 00:43:14,124 Speaker 2: heart attack after only I. 772 00:43:14,124 --> 00:43:17,084 Speaker 1: Think No, I think it was closer. I think it 773 00:43:17,124 --> 00:43:19,324 Speaker 1: was like weeks after he passed out the. 774 00:43:19,364 --> 00:43:24,084 Speaker 2: Verdict as as a we sirved for commission April through 775 00:43:24,124 --> 00:43:26,484 Speaker 2: September and then but yeah, the verdict, it was just. 776 00:43:26,444 --> 00:43:29,364 Speaker 1: Yeah, it was right after he said that Pete Rose 777 00:43:29,404 --> 00:43:32,084 Speaker 1: was not allowed to play. I think that he died 778 00:43:32,084 --> 00:43:36,284 Speaker 1: like a week after that of a broken mind. 779 00:43:37,884 --> 00:43:43,324 Speaker 2: My theory is that this is part of why baseball 780 00:43:43,484 --> 00:43:46,404 Speaker 2: was kind of so unforgiving to Pete and the fact 781 00:43:46,404 --> 00:43:49,764 Speaker 2: that Pete Rose, I'm sure was an asshole, right, but 782 00:43:50,084 --> 00:43:53,564 Speaker 2: you know the fact that I think people I don't 783 00:43:53,804 --> 00:43:55,564 Speaker 2: I don't know this for I'm just going by the psychology. 784 00:43:55,604 --> 00:43:58,524 Speaker 2: I think they think, you know, Pete Rose somehow killed 785 00:43:58,524 --> 00:44:02,284 Speaker 2: Bart Jimmati through grief, died of a broken heart kind 786 00:44:02,284 --> 00:44:05,404 Speaker 2: of thing, right, Yeah, yeah. 787 00:44:04,804 --> 00:44:07,924 Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, okay, so let's let's end that with one 788 00:44:08,044 --> 00:44:11,244 Speaker 1: question for unit. I just want to yes or no. 789 00:44:11,924 --> 00:44:13,924 Speaker 1: Does Pete Rose deserve to be in the Hall of Fame? 790 00:44:18,364 --> 00:44:21,964 Speaker 2: No? Okay, all right, you've been on baseball. Yeah, I 791 00:44:22,004 --> 00:44:23,804 Speaker 2: got it, all right. 792 00:44:24,604 --> 00:44:29,204 Speaker 1: And another legendary gambler died who did not play baseball 793 00:44:30,004 --> 00:44:34,644 Speaker 1: died this week Archie Carras and have you do you 794 00:44:34,724 --> 00:44:43,564 Speaker 1: know his story night? So he is someone who had 795 00:44:43,564 --> 00:44:48,164 Speaker 1: the nickname the Greek, just like another another famous gambler 796 00:44:48,524 --> 00:44:52,284 Speaker 1: in gambling history, and he went on one of the 797 00:44:52,284 --> 00:44:56,804 Speaker 1: most legendary runs in gambling history, and it's so legendary 798 00:44:56,844 --> 00:44:59,804 Speaker 1: that it's just known as the run with a capital 799 00:44:59,884 --> 00:45:03,764 Speaker 1: are he went from so he was just a total degen, 800 00:45:04,084 --> 00:45:07,124 Speaker 1: but in this particular case, he went from fifty dollars 801 00:45:07,484 --> 00:45:12,164 Speaker 1: to over forty million as he went on this insane 802 00:45:12,244 --> 00:45:15,364 Speaker 1: gambling run and then he lost it all back. And 803 00:45:15,444 --> 00:45:19,004 Speaker 1: he did this through a combination of just going on 804 00:45:19,044 --> 00:45:22,884 Speaker 1: an insane run in craps, which happens right like he 805 00:45:23,004 --> 00:45:26,884 Speaker 1: was in that percent of the distribution. Then he actually 806 00:45:26,884 --> 00:45:30,324 Speaker 1: played some poker, and people used to love playing poker 807 00:45:30,364 --> 00:45:32,204 Speaker 1: against him because he wasn't very good, but he thought 808 00:45:32,204 --> 00:45:34,324 Speaker 1: he was very good. But then he went on quite 809 00:45:34,324 --> 00:45:37,804 Speaker 1: the run where he ended up beating some of the 810 00:45:37,804 --> 00:45:40,524 Speaker 1: top players in the game, including Chip Reeze four millions 811 00:45:40,524 --> 00:45:44,364 Speaker 1: of dollars and yeah, and then he and then he 812 00:45:44,404 --> 00:45:47,364 Speaker 1: did some sports betting and he just did incredibly well 813 00:45:47,524 --> 00:45:49,604 Speaker 1: forty million. I think this was nineteen ninety two to 814 00:45:49,684 --> 00:45:55,044 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety four, and then he went broke, and eventually 815 00:45:55,684 --> 00:45:59,964 Speaker 1: he was accused of cheating multiple times, cheating in blackjack, 816 00:46:00,404 --> 00:46:03,964 Speaker 1: and then he became I believe the thirty third person, 817 00:46:04,044 --> 00:46:06,884 Speaker 1: but I might be wrong, thirty second, thirty fourth, something 818 00:46:06,924 --> 00:46:10,204 Speaker 1: along those lines, to enter the infamous Black Book of 819 00:46:10,644 --> 00:46:14,684 Speaker 1: Las Vegas casinos. Yeah, so he is became banned for 820 00:46:14,804 --> 00:46:19,004 Speaker 1: life from every single casino property in the state of Nevada, 821 00:46:19,604 --> 00:46:22,004 Speaker 1: and if he were to enter one, he would be 822 00:46:22,044 --> 00:46:25,844 Speaker 1: immediately arrested. So that is how he ended his days. 823 00:46:26,084 --> 00:46:29,444 Speaker 1: But how crazy is that? I just want to just say, 824 00:46:29,564 --> 00:46:34,204 Speaker 1: this is next level djon fifty dollars forty million broke. 825 00:46:34,964 --> 00:46:38,404 Speaker 2: Could be you, audience member, No, don't, don't, don't. 826 00:46:40,164 --> 00:46:42,804 Speaker 1: No, he was. He was clearly a sick individual. 827 00:46:42,884 --> 00:46:47,524 Speaker 2: You get forty million, play craps, stop stop, walk away, 828 00:46:48,044 --> 00:46:49,804 Speaker 2: walk away, Invest some. 829 00:46:49,804 --> 00:46:51,484 Speaker 1: Of it if you have. If you want to keep 830 00:46:51,524 --> 00:46:55,684 Speaker 1: playing craps, fine, like put put a one hundred thousand, 831 00:46:55,764 --> 00:46:58,524 Speaker 1: that's even too much of it back into crabs and 832 00:46:58,564 --> 00:47:02,204 Speaker 1: the rest just walk away, please, But no one ever does. 833 00:47:02,604 --> 00:47:05,444 Speaker 1: And I think that there's also the hubris there right 834 00:47:05,524 --> 00:47:08,844 Speaker 1: to think that I must be so good. And that 835 00:47:08,924 --> 00:47:12,204 Speaker 1: happened with his poker playing as well. He knew people 836 00:47:12,244 --> 00:47:14,484 Speaker 1: knew he wasn't good, that's why they were playing against him. 837 00:47:14,804 --> 00:47:17,604 Speaker 1: And then he just beat all of these players. And 838 00:47:17,884 --> 00:47:20,884 Speaker 1: that can happen when you're playing heads up right in 839 00:47:20,964 --> 00:47:24,764 Speaker 1: any one in any one scenario and any one iteration. 840 00:47:25,564 --> 00:47:27,364 Speaker 1: The worst player in the world can beat the best 841 00:47:27,364 --> 00:47:29,564 Speaker 1: player in the world if you just run it once, 842 00:47:30,284 --> 00:47:33,284 Speaker 1: because that's you know, poker is a game of skill, 843 00:47:33,724 --> 00:47:36,924 Speaker 1: but in the immediate term, in one specific hand, in 844 00:47:37,004 --> 00:47:39,684 Speaker 1: one game, there's a huge element of chance. So do 845 00:47:39,804 --> 00:47:42,564 Speaker 1: not let that chance get to you, and do not 846 00:47:42,724 --> 00:47:45,884 Speaker 1: forget that sometimes you just run ridiculously Rookie, do not 847 00:47:46,004 --> 00:47:48,804 Speaker 1: be Archie, and then take that forty million and go broke. 848 00:47:49,164 --> 00:47:52,124 Speaker 1: Rest in peace, Archie, Rest in peace, Pete. The world 849 00:47:52,204 --> 00:47:54,764 Speaker 1: has lost two gamblers of very different stripes. 850 00:47:54,804 --> 00:47:58,644 Speaker 2: Today, think about the poker games will have in hell. 851 00:47:58,884 --> 00:48:01,204 Speaker 1: Right, I don't know what that's a good I like 852 00:48:01,204 --> 00:48:02,324 Speaker 1: your I like your hell voice. 853 00:48:02,884 --> 00:48:04,604 Speaker 2: You know, I know what the poke. I've been in 854 00:48:04,644 --> 00:48:07,644 Speaker 2: the the two five game at the Commerce, and so 855 00:48:07,724 --> 00:48:11,724 Speaker 2: I know what poker in hell. On that note, We'll 856 00:48:11,764 --> 00:48:12,964 Speaker 2: see you all next week. 857 00:48:13,364 --> 00:48:13,724 Speaker 1: All right. 858 00:48:13,804 --> 00:48:16,564 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us and tune in again every time 859 00:48:16,564 --> 00:48:17,084 Speaker 2: we have a show. 860 00:48:17,124 --> 00:48:20,684 Speaker 1: Oh, one more thing, we would love to leave you 861 00:48:20,804 --> 00:48:23,764 Speaker 1: with an email address for the show. If there's ever 862 00:48:23,804 --> 00:48:25,524 Speaker 1: anything you really want us to talk about. If you 863 00:48:25,604 --> 00:48:28,484 Speaker 1: have any feedback, we'd love to hear from you. Super easy, 864 00:48:28,884 --> 00:48:35,884 Speaker 1: Risky Business all one word lowercase at pushkin dot Fm. 865 00:48:36,044 --> 00:48:38,884 Speaker 2: Risky Business is hosted by me Nate Silver and me 866 00:48:39,044 --> 00:48:42,044 Speaker 2: Maria Kanakova. The show was a co production of Pushkin 867 00:48:42,084 --> 00:48:45,924 Speaker 2: Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabel Carter. 868 00:48:46,484 --> 00:48:50,324 Speaker 2: Our associate producer is Gabriel hunter Chen. Our engineer is 869 00:48:50,364 --> 00:48:53,524 Speaker 2: Sarah Bruger. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 870 00:48:53,684 --> 00:48:55,404 Speaker 1: If you want to listen to an ad free version, 871 00:48:55,484 --> 00:48:58,164 Speaker 1: sign up for Pushkin Plus. For six ninety nine a month. 872 00:48:58,284 --> 00:49:01,244 Speaker 1: You get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.