1 00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. We turn our attention 2 00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:04,840 Speaker 1: to the markets this week. 3 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:08,640 Speaker 2: USCPI Nembers reinforcing concerns about inflation, the. 4 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:10,520 Speaker 1: Financial stories that shape. 5 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:12,799 Speaker 2: Our worth a really different reaction to Mark. Some more 6 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 2: indications of just how hot the US economy really is 7 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 2: through the eyes of the most influential voices. Katherine Keating, 8 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 2: CEO of B and Y Moan, Ryan Winnahan, a Bank 9 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:25,920 Speaker 2: of America, Sam Zell, Chairman and founder of Equity Group Investment. 10 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. 11 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 2: All Eyes on Washington, on the drama over the federal debt, 12 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 2: on whether the FED can take a break from raising raids, 13 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:39,560 Speaker 2: and on the two men who are running for president again. 14 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 2: This is Boobert Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. This 15 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 2: week Blair Ephron is Center View Partners on the appetite 16 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,279 Speaker 2: for big deals despite all the uncertainty we. 17 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,479 Speaker 4: Are in uncharted complicated waters. 18 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 2: Former FED Vice chair Randall Quarrels on what went wrong 19 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 2: with Silicon Valley Bank, and former BBC and New York 20 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 2: Times head Mark Thompson on what streaming and AI mean 21 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 2: for the business of news. 22 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 5: The news is going through a revolution. That's what's going on. 23 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 1: This week. 24 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 2: Global Wall Streets spent a lot of its time trying 25 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 2: to look around corners like the corner of the debt 26 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 2: ceiling and whether it will keep the government from paying 27 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 2: the debts it is already run up. The speaker McCarthy 28 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 2: traveling to the White House for what may or may 29 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:33,320 Speaker 2: not the negotiations. 30 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:35,479 Speaker 1: I was very clear with the President we have now 31 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 1: just two weeks to go. 32 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 2: And the issue followed Treasure sector yell onto the G 33 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 2: seven finance ministers meeting in Nigata, Japan at the end 34 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 2: of the week. 35 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 6: If Congress fails to do that, it really impairs our 36 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 6: credit rating. We have to default on some obligation, whether 37 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 6: it's treasuries or payments to Social Security. 38 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 2: The presidential election may still be eighteen months away, but 39 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:01,640 Speaker 2: the two meeting candidates each had his own take on 40 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 2: the debt ceialing issue, with President Biden saying it wasn't 41 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 2: just the United States that is in the crosshairs. 42 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:10,519 Speaker 7: If we default on our debt, the whole world isn't 43 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 7: Trump this is a manufactured crisis. 44 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 2: But on the other hand, former President Trump appeared on 45 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 2: CNN and said, maybe a default isn't that big a deal. 46 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 7: I say that the Republicans out there, Congressman, senators, if 47 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 7: they don't give you massive cuts, you're going to have 48 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:24,960 Speaker 7: to do a default. 49 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 2: And in the meantime, consumer price index numbers came in 50 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 2: this week as predicted. 51 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 8: The month over month changed for both the headline and 52 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 8: the core comes in exactly as forecast at four tenths 53 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:38,920 Speaker 8: of a percent. That's up on a headline basis over 54 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 8: what we saw last month. 55 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:42,959 Speaker 2: Which is like vince Reinhardt to doubt that they would 56 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 2: do anything to change the Fed's path. 57 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 8: Was today's print disqualifying for FED action in June fifteens ers? 58 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 2: No, The markets this week were relatively calm, with the 59 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 2: S and P five hundred off just three tenths percent, 60 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 2: the Nasdaq up for ten hund percent, and the yield 61 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 2: and the ten yere up less than two basis points, 62 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 2: ending the week at three point four to six six. 63 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 2: To take us through what we saw this week, we 64 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 2: welcome now Liz Ann Saunders back to Wall Street week. 65 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 2: She's Chief Investment Strategies at Charles Schwab and Kristen Britterally, 66 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 2: she is head of North America Investments at Citygroup Global Markets. 67 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 2: So welcome to both of you. Great you have you, Kristen, 68 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 2: thank you for coming to Wall Street. We really good 69 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 2: to have you here. 70 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 1: It's great to be here. 71 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 9: Thank you. 72 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 1: Let's start with you. 73 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 2: In the equity markets, they seem to be relatively calm, 74 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 2: despite that talk about maybe some kerfuffle down in Washington. 75 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 9: Yeah, this is really interesting, and I think it's one 76 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 9: of the most frequently asked questions that we're getting from 77 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 9: our investors. Why has volatility muted? Why are we not 78 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 9: seeing any stresses within the equity markets? And I think 79 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 9: there's a couple of explanations for this. So the first 80 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 9: one is, when you look at the breadth of the 81 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 9: equity market rally that we've seen, it's really only seven 82 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 9: stocks are driving eighty percent of the year today gains. 83 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 9: So this is very concentrated. This is very idiosyncratic. Another 84 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 9: way to look at it is you have about ten 85 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 9: companies that are driving twenty five percent of the free 86 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 9: cashlow generation within the US market. So this is a 87 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 9: story about the companies that are really well run as 88 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 9: opposed to a breadth and depth of this rally. 89 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 2: So LU say, what about that does that narrowness of 90 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:16,919 Speaker 2: the rally, if we can call it that in the 91 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 2: stock market, does that make you nervous? 92 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 10: Well, it doesn't suggest as healthy a market as if 93 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,840 Speaker 10: you had the soldiers at the front line and not 94 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 10: just the generals at the front line. I think there's 95 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 10: a little bit of muscle memory in a knee jerk 96 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,279 Speaker 10: move that goes back into names like this when people 97 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 10: think back to those that group of stocks, many of 98 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 10: the same ones represented almost a defensive place to go 99 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 10: during the worst part of the pandemic. But of course 100 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:48,720 Speaker 10: what it represented fundamentally at that time was those represented 101 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 10: the only ecosystems in which we were living when everything 102 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 10: was shut down. I think this time it's a bit different. 103 00:04:56,279 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 10: Chris talked about the large size and liquidity and cash 104 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,719 Speaker 10: generation of these companies. You can also see the dominance 105 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 10: of their outperformance really kick into high gear when we 106 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 10: saw the failure of SVB Bank and the ripple effects, 107 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 10: So I think that really was the push there. You 108 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 10: can have an environment like that last a while and 109 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,599 Speaker 10: it doesn't necessarily have to be calamitous. There are times 110 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 10: where you can see some catched down by the big 111 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:29,600 Speaker 10: dominant names. While you're seeing improving breadth and better participation 112 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 10: on the way back up. That's a bit of what 113 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,040 Speaker 10: was going on last fall when the market had its low. 114 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:37,839 Speaker 10: But I think concentration risk in terms of what is 115 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:42,039 Speaker 10: the manifestation actually for investors, I think investors should be 116 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 10: mindful of not chasing that and ending up with too 117 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 10: much concentration risk. 118 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,480 Speaker 2: So the equity markets can't get too far away from earnings. 119 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 2: And we're well into earnings now towards the end of 120 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:54,560 Speaker 2: this season, and we looked act to our elves. You 121 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 2: know that we have twenty four l's of which we 122 00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:59,080 Speaker 2: have one from City actually, and they're protecting overall I 123 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:02,040 Speaker 2: think two hundred six dollars at the end of the 124 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 2: year earnings for share, which is down about eight percent 125 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 2: from last year. 126 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:06,160 Speaker 1: Where are you on that projection? 127 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 9: We're very much aligned to that that we started this 128 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 9: year about looking at about a ten percent earnings contraction. 129 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 9: We're now in the ballpark of about eight to ten percent. 130 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:16,600 Speaker 9: And I think when we look at Q one earnings, 131 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:18,839 Speaker 9: they were certainly better than feared, which is why we 132 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,480 Speaker 9: could see some reduction of that number. But I think 133 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 9: what we have to keep in mind is when we 134 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:25,920 Speaker 9: look at the US equity market, we have seven out 135 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 9: of eleven sectors that are already in a profits recession. 136 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 9: When we look at what the FED has done already, 137 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:35,719 Speaker 9: the five hundred basis points of great hikes, the quantitative tightening, 138 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 9: the stresses in the banking sector that are going to 139 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 9: lead to tightening of credit conditions, this is something that 140 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 9: has us very cautious. It's more difficult for companies to 141 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 9: be profitable in this environment. It's more challenging on the consumer, 142 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 9: and the idea that this isn't going to flow through 143 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:53,600 Speaker 9: to corporate earnings in a more material way is something 144 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 9: that we just don't believe. So playing a little defense 145 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:59,839 Speaker 9: here and expecting some downside is what we're advising our investors. 146 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:04,160 Speaker 2: We're either in or rapidly approaching a federal debt crisis, 147 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:07,279 Speaker 2: as the so called X DAYE when the government runs 148 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 2: out of money is just over two weeks away now. 149 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 2: With a default, something most everyone agrees would be a catastrophe. 150 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 2: And there are some indications in the T bill and 151 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 2: the CDs markets that at least some investors are starting 152 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 2: to get worried, but you couldn't really tell that from 153 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 2: the equity markets. This is not the first time we 154 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 2: have been here, and we asked our colleague Michael McKee 155 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 2: to compare what we're seeing now with what we saw 156 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 2: in twenty eleven when we had a similar close brush 157 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 2: with disaster. 158 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 8: Industrious David would rather hope that history doesn't repeat or rhyme. 159 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 8: For some time, we've been told that nothing's going to 160 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 8: happen on the debt ceiling until we get to the 161 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 8: last minute or until Wall Street melts down, and it 162 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 8: does seem we're getting close on both counts. Here's what 163 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 8: JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond told us just a 164 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 8: few days ago. 165 00:07:55,760 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 11: Actual default that is potentially catastrophic, and you can go 166 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 11: through a million ways, but everyone, anyone's anyone knows that 167 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 11: Cass Tropick and I don't think it's going to happen 168 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 11: because it gets cash Rowberick, and the close you get 169 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 11: to it, you will have panic. Markets get volatile, maybe 170 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 11: there's Doc mar go down. The treasury markets will have 171 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 11: their own problems. 172 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: It's amazing. You already have certain T bills. 173 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 11: Trading three percent and right next to one five percent. 174 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 1: This is not good. 175 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 8: We have seen this movie before the debt ceiling taken 176 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 8: hostage for spending cuts a number of times over the 177 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 8: past couple of decades. Twenty and eleven is one time 178 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 8: when investors don't want history to rhyme. They went down 179 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 8: to the wire as President Obama fought the idea of 180 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:43,960 Speaker 8: giving in to extortion on the debt ceiling. Then markets collapsed. 181 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 8: The S and P five hundred went down about twenty 182 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 8: percent and stayed down for quite some time before starting 183 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:51,559 Speaker 8: to go back up again. 184 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:57,679 Speaker 2: Losenne Sanders, Charles Schwab, and Chrissian Bitterly of City are 185 00:08:57,720 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 2: still with us, and let me go to you on this. 186 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 2: Why aren't we seeing more reaction in the equity markets 187 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 2: than we have so far in the dead ceiling. 188 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 10: I hope it's not just complacency and a correct assumption 189 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 10: that although they can will probably inevitably kick to the 190 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 10: eleventh hour fifty nine minute. That's just the way things 191 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 10: are done, particularly on this subject. But so my guess 192 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 10: is just complacency and an assumption that something will get done. 193 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 10: I'd hate to think we have to go down the 194 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 10: same path of twenty eleven, which is also a kin 195 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,679 Speaker 10: for different reasons of what happened in two thousand and 196 00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 10: eight with ultimately the passage of TARP, you needed that 197 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 10: riot moment in markets. I think I agree with Jamie Diamond. 198 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 10: I think it would be cataclysmic. I don't think anybody 199 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 10: should be cavalier about letting it happen, whether it's for 200 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 10: you know, political gain or whatever reason. My concern with 201 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 10: regard to twenty eleven macro conditions are very different. We 202 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 10: were on an upswing in the economy, having come out 203 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 10: of the global financial crisis. We weren't dealing with an 204 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 10: inflation problem or having come out of the most aggressive 205 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 10: tightening cycle in forty years. And then there's certainly more 206 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 10: vitriol right now. So I think we all should be 207 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 10: worried about it, but I think ultimately something will get done. 208 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 2: Okay, thank you so very much to Leazenne Sanders or 209 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:16,439 Speaker 2: Charles schwa for being back with us, and Kristin Bitterly 210 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 2: for coming to us from city. Partisan fights over the 211 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 2: dead ceiling are nothing new for Wall Street those Rockeiser 212 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 2: talked about it in March of nineteen ninety six when 213 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 2: Congress ended up with a short term stop gap spending 214 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:30,439 Speaker 2: bill to keep the US from defaulting. Back then, if 215 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 2: you remember the top movie in the country was Mike 216 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 2: Nichols The Bird Cage. Coming up, Where have all those 217 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:39,079 Speaker 2: deals gone and are they coming back? We're going to 218 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 2: ask Blair Effron, a center of your partners, about whether 219 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 2: it has to do with credits tightening or whether they're 220 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 2: bigger factors such as, for example, what's going on Washington 221 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 2: on the debt ceiling. All of that is coming up 222 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 2: next on Wall Street Week, and we are on Bloomberg. 223 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from 224 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Radio. 225 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:21,839 Speaker 2: Credit it's what makes the financial world go round, and 226 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 2: that world is concerned there may be less credit available. 227 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 3: One of the big questions will be to what extent 228 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 3: does credit titan and you know, if that is material 229 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 3: that will have a drag on the economy. 230 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:39,560 Speaker 2: With CEO's mentions of credit tightening spiking this earning season, 231 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 2: the series of regional bank shocks made matters only worse 232 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 2: as bankers struggling to stay afloat, had little appetite to 233 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:48,840 Speaker 2: take on the risk of extending credit. 234 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 12: A banking system which has government guarantees where people put their. 235 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:57,679 Speaker 8: Money in a trust relationship if they suffer significant losses, 236 00:11:57,920 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 8: that's what causes concern. 237 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 2: But as important as credit is, it's just that hard 238 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 2: sometimes to get a handle on it in real time. 239 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,320 Speaker 2: The fed's backward looking numbers on bank commercial and industrial 240 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 2: loans fell sharply in January and February, but started to 241 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 2: recover in March, only to turn down again in April. 242 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:20,680 Speaker 2: And the forward looking Senior Loan Officer Opinion survey Or 243 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:24,680 Speaker 2: SLUICE numbers this week pointed to further tightening, which FED 244 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 2: Chair J. Powell got a peak at last week and 245 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:30,320 Speaker 2: told us in advance was in line with what they expected. 246 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:32,960 Speaker 4: In mid size banks have some of them had been 247 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 4: tightening their lending standards. 248 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 9: Banking data will show that lending has continued to grow, 249 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 9: but the pace has. 250 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 1: Been slowing really since the second. 251 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 2: Half of last year. And to take us through the 252 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 2: world of credit and what it may or may not 253 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:49,079 Speaker 2: be doing to the deal pace, we turned out of 254 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:50,839 Speaker 2: somebody who really knows that space awfully well. 255 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 1: He's Blair Efron. 256 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 2: He is a partner and co founder of Centerview Partner. 257 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 2: So welcome back to Walter. 258 00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 4: Great to have you see. 259 00:12:57,600 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 1: Okay, let's start with credit. 260 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 2: Because it was one thing that does affect the pace 261 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 2: of deals. Is it affecting it from your point view 262 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 2: right now? 263 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 4: Absolutely, it's getting better. Still constrained fourth quarter of twenty two, 264 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 4: you had nothing. Today, you actually have the markets loosening 265 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 4: up for the right deals, ignishing data point. For example, 266 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:19,320 Speaker 4: the largest LBO in the past six seven eight months 267 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 4: was a deal with Blackstone and Emerson for their climate business, 268 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 4: fourteen billion dollar deal. No bank that was available. The 269 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 4: private direct lending market stepped in firms like Apollo, Blackstone, 270 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:35,320 Speaker 4: KKR Areas that did five and a half billion of 271 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:37,719 Speaker 4: financing to see it through. Half of that has been 272 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 4: replaced in the past week by the banks. So it 273 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 4: really depends on the credit and it depends on what 274 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 4: the deal is, but there is absolutely credit available. Obviously, 275 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:50,320 Speaker 4: the key is it's much more expensive. You should assume 276 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 4: for a private equity transaction it's five hundred basis points 277 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:57,079 Speaker 4: or so higher than it would have been a year 278 00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 4: and a half ago, and for a corporate deal two 279 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 4: hundred one hundred fifty basis points. And that leads to 280 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 4: the next issue, which is how you price an asset 281 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 4: for sale. And obviously with multiple staying high and elevated 282 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 4: and at eighteen times PE, it's the same as it 283 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 4: was last year, same as it was in twenty one, 284 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,560 Speaker 4: But yet your returns in any transaction are more difficult. 285 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 4: So you have to think about how to get the 286 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 4: buyer and the seller to come to agreement. Not easy. 287 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 2: As I recalled center of you might have had something 288 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 2: to do with the Emerson deals like we did. 289 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 4: You can give us a plug, I won't. 290 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:29,480 Speaker 1: Okay, we'll do that. 291 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 2: So let's go to that question of buyers and sellers 292 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 2: and where they think the price is. Because some of 293 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 2: those prices are coming down. Valuations are affected by interest 294 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 2: rates and also some slowing of the economy in some places, 295 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 2: have the sellers gotten their heads around the fact that 296 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 2: their price may be lower. 297 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 4: They finally starting to do that, which is actually why 298 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 4: I think there's more discussion. You don't see it yet 299 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 4: in terms of announcements, but you see companies thinking more 300 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 4: about M and A as part of their thinking in 301 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 4: twenty three, and I would venture to say that as 302 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 4: we exit the year twenty three and get into twenty four, 303 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 4: you'll see activity actually start to pick up quite a bit. 304 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 2: So you think it will come back? Do you think 305 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 2: we'll reach the levels we had before? Because we have 306 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 2: some record levels. 307 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 4: Oh boy, that was high. You think about a five 308 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 4: trillion dollars peak market, that probably unlikely. But the idea 309 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 4: that you'll have a stable global M and a market 310 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 4: of four trillion dollars or so every year, I think absolutely. 311 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 4: And what you find out generally about M and A 312 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 4: David now is it's less prone to cyclicality. It's part 313 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 4: of a company's core strategy. Most companies are actually very 314 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 4: good at it. And when you're thinking about new avias 315 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 4: and growth new areas for your business, you're thinking about 316 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 4: the pace of disruption and how you combat that. It 317 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 4: becomes important for most companies to want to consider. 318 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 2: When you've been on with us before, you've emphasized Blair 319 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:50,200 Speaker 2: that uncertainty is one of the biggest factors in determining 320 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 2: whether companies want to do deals or not. Where are 321 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 2: we uncertain? Because there seems to be a lot of 322 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 2: uncertainty around right now. 323 00:15:56,400 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 4: We are in uncharted complicated words starting with obviously the 324 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 4: dead ceiling, which way to come back to the banking 325 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 4: environment more generally, and whether you think we're a slow 326 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:12,640 Speaker 4: down or something more severe in the coming months. I 327 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 4: happen to be in a slow down camp. I think 328 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 4: there's a lot of resiliency that we don't account for. 329 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 4: It's a lot of tailwind that will lead stability. But 330 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 4: that uncertainty clearly is an issue when you think about 331 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 4: doing a transaction. And remember you want to be able 332 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 4: to think of a dead transaction when there's a macrotail wind, 333 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 4: because it covers up some of your assumptions that may 334 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:35,920 Speaker 4: not pan out. It's just people do better in a 335 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 4: growth environment. Any company does, so clearly an issue. And 336 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 4: I think until the dead ceiling situation resolves, and that's 337 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 4: with the question mark, I hope it'll be weighing pretty heavily. 338 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: We've had this dead ceiling situation before. 339 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 2: Two thousand eleven was the time we had a downgrade 340 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 2: actually from it, and we have a lot of people, 341 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 2: the president of that States as well as Mitch will Connell 342 00:16:57,320 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 2: agreeing we can't have a default. We actually had formed 343 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 2: person tru I'm saying this week, well, maybe it wouldn't 344 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 2: be that bad a thing. Well, how does it figure 345 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:07,200 Speaker 2: in the minds of people doing deals, CEOs and others 346 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:09,439 Speaker 2: thinking about deals? Are they taking into account? Do they 347 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:10,120 Speaker 2: take it seriously? 348 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 4: So everybody's takend seriously let's get away from the deal 349 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 4: market for a second. Let's talk about a company's performance. 350 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:19,920 Speaker 4: I think the debt situation, the debt ste situation already 351 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:23,719 Speaker 4: is having a big impact. If you think about driving 352 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,400 Speaker 4: a car, you're a passenger and the driver goes ninety 353 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,640 Speaker 4: miles an hour and then slows down, you're gonna think 354 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 4: twice about getting back in the car, which you have 355 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 4: already Simply the spectra of its probably hit GDP growth 356 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 4: thirty basis points. It's probably hit jobs two hundred and 357 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 4: fifty thousand, according to CEA, the Council of Economic Advisors, 358 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 4: and then you start to think about what the impact 359 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 4: is if you go over and have a default that 360 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 4: is measured in days and weeks. The fact of the 361 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:53,919 Speaker 4: matter is that's a half a million jobs, that's a 362 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 4: half a point of GDP growth, and that's before you 363 00:17:56,760 --> 00:18:01,879 Speaker 4: start to think of the absolutely urgent consequences of something 364 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:02,919 Speaker 4: that's protracted. 365 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 2: We also have regulatory uncertainty, particularly in the antitrust area, 366 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,680 Speaker 2: both for the FTC and from the Justice Department. Bloomberg 367 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 2: actually had a piece this week saying that that really 368 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:15,919 Speaker 2: is deterring or some of the CEOs from moving forward 369 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:18,240 Speaker 2: because you're not sure whether we're going to approve, but 370 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 2: even more than that, how long it will take. There's 371 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:22,439 Speaker 2: a lot of uncertainty running. Are you dealing with that 372 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 2: as you advise. 373 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 4: Absolutely, David, And if you just it shows up in 374 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:29,200 Speaker 4: the numbers. Year to date we have I think fourteen 375 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 4: deals over ten billion dollars versus last year was twenty 376 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 4: four deals. But you account for that in your thinking. 377 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 4: If it's going to take eighteen months for a transaction 378 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 4: to close, you spend a lot of time thinking about 379 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:44,359 Speaker 4: how both the acquired business and the acquiring company manage 380 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:48,440 Speaker 4: their own businesses, keep the base business performing well, and 381 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 4: try to minimize uncertainty for all the employees. You can 382 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 4: think about different structures. If you stock, for example, in 383 00:18:55,359 --> 00:19:02,919 Speaker 4: a transaction, the selling company has more of a vested interest, 384 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 4: if you will, more of a meeting the minds in 385 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,640 Speaker 4: terms of what it takes to do well. And I'd 386 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 4: also say you think about the whole question of synergy 387 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 4: in a different way. I think that you need to 388 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 4: be more conservative, certainly on cost, and you need to 389 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 4: be more aggressive and absolutely committed to the idea that 390 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 4: the transaction leads to better growth, which leads to job creation, 391 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 4: which leads to potentially better outcomes for consumers. All this 392 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 4: factors into the thinking. I would also finally say that 393 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 4: it's much more the administration using a megaphone than actually 394 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 4: litigating that people are attentive to. But all that said, 395 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 4: smart deals are still happening and they will continue to happen. 396 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:53,560 Speaker 2: Blair, it's great to have you back on Walshiver. Thank 397 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 2: you so much for having me, David. That's Blair Efron 398 00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 2: a Center View Partners. 399 00:19:58,359 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 1: Coming up. 400 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 2: Generative AI just the latest challenge to the news business model. 401 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 2: We talk with the man who led the BBC and 402 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 2: then the New York Times, Mark Thompson, about whether there 403 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,240 Speaker 2: is a way to make a serious business out of 404 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 2: serious news. 405 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 1: That's next on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. 406 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:22,600 Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from 407 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Radio. 408 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 1: This is Wall Street. I'm David Weston. 409 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:34,119 Speaker 2: We're all trying to figure out what to make of 410 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 2: generative AI and what it will do to all of 411 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 2: our lives for those engaged in the business of gathering 412 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 2: and reporting news. It's just the latest and a series 413 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 2: of innovations that have also posed challenges. Things like streaming 414 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 2: video and social media and even the Internet itself. Mark 415 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,880 Speaker 2: Thompson is someone who has spent his career addressing these 416 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 2: changes and figuring out how to make them tools instead 417 00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 2: of threats. He was Director General of the BBC and 418 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:01,159 Speaker 2: then President and CEO of The New York Times. Is 419 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,159 Speaker 2: now chairman of Ancestry, that is the largest for profit 420 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 2: genealogy company in the world. 421 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,399 Speaker 1: And we're welcome now back to Bloomberg. Mark, great to 422 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 1: have you here. 423 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 2: Good to see that is so this week we're struck 424 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 2: by the fact that at the same time we have 425 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:17,159 Speaker 2: BuzzFeed going out of business, we have Eural Chap New 426 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:18,640 Speaker 2: York Times starting a. 427 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 1: Really big deal with Google for cash. 428 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,680 Speaker 5: What is going on, Well, the news is going through 429 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,640 Speaker 5: a revolution, That's what's going on. And the revolution's full 430 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 5: of surprises. When I got to the New York Times 431 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 5: in twenty twelve, so just over ten years ago, everyone 432 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 5: told me the BuzzFeed was going to become the New 433 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 5: York Times or the Huffington Post was going to become 434 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 5: the New York Times. A decade on, the game's really changed. 435 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 5: It's changed both in the legacy players, some of the 436 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,360 Speaker 5: legacy players, at least the Times The All Street Journal, 437 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 5: the Washington Post might be examples of that kind of 438 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,920 Speaker 5: got their act together and began to think hard about 439 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 5: digital and I think in the early twenty twenties look 440 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 5: pretty secure. Whereas the insurgents, the new guys who had 441 00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 5: no legacy hang ups, they had no print or broadcast 442 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 5: TV to worry about. They've kind of got into trouble. 443 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,360 Speaker 5: It's turned out to be much much harder than they 444 00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 5: thought to build a brand, to keep your audience, and 445 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:24,160 Speaker 5: above all, to figure out ways of turning big audiences 446 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 5: billions of clicks into dollars. That's proven very hard for them. 447 00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 2: What does that say about incumbency when it comes to 448 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:32,720 Speaker 2: I'm talking about real news? Now, there are things that 449 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,040 Speaker 2: call themselves and news says befo. We're talking about real reporting. 450 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:37,240 Speaker 2: What does it say because in fact, there are all 451 00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,920 Speaker 2: of those things that you've mentioned and more that really 452 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:41,680 Speaker 2: sprang up. We thought they were going to be a 453 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 2: great new thing, and they've gone now. And yet we 454 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 2: do have New York Times, although I'll say Financial Times 455 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,720 Speaker 2: in Wall Street Journal, who soon you're doing quite well? 456 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: Thank you? 457 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 12: That's right. 458 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:51,119 Speaker 5: Well, I think it's a few things to say. I mean, 459 00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:55,679 Speaker 5: what one question is when was the last time in 460 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,400 Speaker 5: the free world we saw the creation of a global 461 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,480 Speaker 5: news brand. Are truly global news brand, not a specialist 462 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 5: business led news brand. Bloomberg is a really good example 463 00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,639 Speaker 5: of that, but a kind of global general news brand. 464 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 5: It's CNN in the early eighties. So it's really really 465 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 5: hard to do, and in a great continental country like 466 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,159 Speaker 5: the United States, even to become a national news brand. 467 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 5: So legacy in terms of brand and trust and name 468 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:30,320 Speaker 5: recognition is fantastically valuable. But it's not enough. It's like 469 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:34,360 Speaker 5: you know, it's it's necessary, but not sufficient, it seems, 470 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 5: because you always have to work out the economics of 471 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:40,480 Speaker 5: a very different media environment. And what's interesting is I 472 00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 5: would say that the big TV brands in this country, 473 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 5: tv news brands to include CNN, have yet to figure 474 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 5: that out, and that their business, their legacy business, still 475 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,359 Speaker 5: very profitable, is dying. 476 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 1: It's dying, and it's not. 477 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 5: Yet clear that they've got credible plans yet for the 478 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,280 Speaker 5: news ship that's going to take over when the old 479 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 5: ship sinks. 480 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 2: So talking about video news for a moment, which I 481 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:14,720 Speaker 2: know more about. We had obviously the broadcast networks and 482 00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:16,680 Speaker 2: there were licensed by the government, there was this motor 483 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,960 Speaker 2: on your business because you needed a license. That gave 484 00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,879 Speaker 2: rise to cable and people were terribly afraid of cable. 485 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,680 Speaker 2: That gave rise to CNN. Actually, and then we went 486 00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:28,359 Speaker 2: on beyond that. Now we have streaming video, so there's 487 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,600 Speaker 2: more out of it available out there. What does streaming 488 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,000 Speaker 2: video potentially mean for news? Is that a risk and 489 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:34,920 Speaker 2: opportunity both? 490 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 8: Well. 491 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 5: I think if we just talk as kind of as newspeople, 492 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 5: some stories are best consumed as video. And actually even 493 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 5: newspapers like the New York Times and realized that you'll 494 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,680 Speaker 5: see a lot of video on the New York Times. Obviously, 495 00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 5: short form video, which is kind of specially designed for 496 00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:59,359 Speaker 5: smartphones and is very snackable, has taken over the world. 497 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:03,120 Speaker 5: I think for the big the big players, if you'll 498 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:06,560 Speaker 5: see an end for example, if you're Bloomberg, the question 499 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 5: of whether you want to offer users snackable little pieces 500 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 5: forty five seconds, a minute, a minute and a half, 501 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,959 Speaker 5: or whether you want to try and somehow port the 502 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:26,199 Speaker 5: longer the show ten to fifteen minutes, the anchor, the conversation, 503 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,680 Speaker 5: whether that has a streaming role is unproven. 504 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:33,720 Speaker 1: And now i'd have all that we have generative AI. Yeah, 505 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:34,400 Speaker 1: and what that means. 506 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 2: You saw Buri Dealer's remarks recently saying he thinks they 507 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:40,439 Speaker 2: could really pose a substantial threat to news. What do 508 00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 2: you make of general AI or is it just too 509 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:43,000 Speaker 2: early to know? 510 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 5: It's I think, I mean, I think it's too early 511 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,960 Speaker 5: to know. It is extraordinary though. I was at a 512 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 5: board meeting branches to yesterday and what our engineers had 513 00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:59,640 Speaker 5: used GPT for to hack the beginnings of a version 514 00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,640 Speaker 5: of the answersty product where you can ask it questions. 515 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 5: You can say, tell the story of my grandfather and 516 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 5: it will create either a thousand words of pros or 517 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:16,679 Speaker 5: it will create a slideshow with actually frankly astonishingly convincing 518 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:20,199 Speaker 5: captions like that in seconds two and three seconds. So 519 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,399 Speaker 5: I think if it's an immense opportunity to solve some 520 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:28,160 Speaker 5: problems for us, you know, at Ancestry trying to bring 521 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,680 Speaker 5: these family trees to life into human stories with pictures 522 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:34,480 Speaker 5: and seals, and where a machine is doing it, you know, 523 00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:38,680 Speaker 5: in a fairly safe environment. You know, it's all fairly formulaic. 524 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:42,040 Speaker 5: That's very exciting. Clearly, there are threats, though, and I 525 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:46,639 Speaker 5: would say one real hope for us is that AI, 526 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:50,879 Speaker 5: both generitive and other forms of AI, Machine learning and 527 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,680 Speaker 5: other forms of AI will really help us solve that problem. 528 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 1: If I'm a. 529 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:57,440 Speaker 5: Consumer of how do I find the media I want? 530 00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:02,960 Speaker 5: It's Friday evening. I want something entertaining, you know I 531 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:05,280 Speaker 5: wanted Pg. Thirteen. I don't want too much of violence. 532 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:06,400 Speaker 1: What have you got? 533 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:08,520 Speaker 5: What have you got? And actually even the very best 534 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 5: screams in the world don't do a good job of 535 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,359 Speaker 5: telling me in my view, and I need to bring 536 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,920 Speaker 5: friends and go through reviews and rested to work out. 537 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,320 Speaker 5: I think that business of whether it's finding a new 538 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,600 Speaker 5: story on a smartphone or what you want to watch 539 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,280 Speaker 5: in the evening, AI can really help us with that. 540 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:29,159 Speaker 5: But a threat. Imagine an algorithm which could every morning 541 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 5: at seven ingest all of the news in the world 542 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,600 Speaker 5: and then turn it into we could use your voice 543 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:43,000 Speaker 5: David Western, and you the consumer could ask your smartphone 544 00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:48,359 Speaker 5: in the kitchen to ask David what's happened today? And 545 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,320 Speaker 5: David's not quoting the New York Times or the Washington 546 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:58,400 Speaker 5: Post or CNN or MSNBC. David is ingesting it all, 547 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 5: paraphrasing it all, and is ready to interact with you. 548 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,320 Speaker 5: What's happening in Ukraine? What are they? Did the Russians 549 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,160 Speaker 5: retreat at the backmotor say what happened? 550 00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:09,880 Speaker 1: Why? 551 00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:12,560 Speaker 5: What does that mean? And David can answer all those 552 00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:15,040 Speaker 5: questions and like they'll pay you a good they'll pay 553 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 5: you a good fee. 554 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:19,640 Speaker 1: Well. But like every powerful tool, it can be used 555 00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 1: for a good or for ill. 556 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,560 Speaker 5: And will be used for both. Yeah, I mean, I 557 00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,119 Speaker 5: think when people talk about slowing it down, we must, 558 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 5: you know, we must have a debate about how does 559 00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,240 Speaker 5: that work? I mean there are national security implications here 560 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:34,879 Speaker 5: about I mean, this is the technology which is I 561 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 5: think almost certainly going to and probably has to be 562 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:43,880 Speaker 5: developed and explored. It will happen. It's happening now very quickly. 563 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 5: I want to say, as a species, we're very adaptable too. 564 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 5: People who predicted the end of all jobs and the 565 00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 5: end of everything with previous you know, the Industrial Revolution 566 00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 5: and everything since have always been proven wrong because human 567 00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 5: beings adapt and generally economic history suggests you get more jobs, 568 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 5: you get more wealth as the results of these things. 569 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:09,160 Speaker 5: So although I can certainly think of very dark nightmass 570 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 5: from any like everyone else, I want to remain basically 571 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 5: optimistic about AI and news AI and medium more generally. 572 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,120 Speaker 2: So I'll buy that optimism was always good. Thank you 573 00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,200 Speaker 2: so much to Mark Thompson of Ancestry. 574 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,320 Speaker 13: So this was the week when the entire economic world 575 00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,680 Speaker 13: seemed to be coming down with a severe case of 576 00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:31,840 Speaker 13: mad cow disease. In Washington, there was you might say, 577 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:37,080 Speaker 13: utter confusion. Congress and the White House, whose most conspicuous 578 00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:40,120 Speaker 13: accomplishment this year had been blaming each other for lack 579 00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:43,400 Speaker 13: of progress, failed once again to reach agreement on a 580 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:47,800 Speaker 13: budget for fiscal nineteen ninety six, a year that's. 581 00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:48,800 Speaker 1: Already half over. 582 00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 13: So they approve, would you believe it, one more so 583 00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:56,480 Speaker 13: called stop gap spending bill to keep the government going 584 00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:58,560 Speaker 13: for another twenty six days. 585 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:04,120 Speaker 1: And that's no. This is Wall Street Week. On Bloomberg. 586 00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:16,920 Speaker 1: This is Wall Street Week. 587 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:19,520 Speaker 2: I'm David weston the failure of Silicon Valley Bank sent 588 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:23,000 Speaker 2: shockwaves through the banking system and rattled the markets. The 589 00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:25,920 Speaker 2: dust is really still settling, but the forensics on what 590 00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:28,600 Speaker 2: went wrong are well underway, with the FED Vice Chair 591 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,880 Speaker 2: for Bank Supervision Michael barr issuing report calling for stronger 592 00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,400 Speaker 2: supervision and stronger regulation. For his perspective on what went 593 00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:38,640 Speaker 2: wrong at SVB, we welcome. Now mister Barr's predecessor as 594 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 2: FED Vice Chair, he is Randall Corrals now executive chair 595 00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:44,479 Speaker 2: of the Synature Group, So welcome. It's great to have you, 596 00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:46,600 Speaker 2: mister Corals. So there's been a lot of back and 597 00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:48,840 Speaker 2: forth about what happened what didn't happen. I must say, 598 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,320 Speaker 2: mister Barr and thinks that this is a textbook example 599 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,600 Speaker 2: of bank mismanagement out of Silicon Valley Bank. 600 00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 1: I think everyone. 601 00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:57,840 Speaker 2: Agrees with that. Well, are there things that actually the 602 00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:01,040 Speaker 2: regulators or the supervisors could have done to make it better? 603 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:05,760 Speaker 12: It obviously was a text bookcase of mismanagement. But I 604 00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:10,960 Speaker 12: think that explanations are usually most penetrating when they don't 605 00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:14,720 Speaker 12: assume that the people involved were either fools or crooks. 606 00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:20,200 Speaker 12: And so the question is, how could some of these 607 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:23,600 Speaker 12: decisions have been made, both by the bank management, by 608 00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:27,959 Speaker 12: the FED itself in supervising the bank, And there I 609 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,680 Speaker 12: think you have to look at the behavior of the 610 00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 12: uninsured deposits in Silicon Valley Bank and in the other 611 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,400 Speaker 12: banks that have failed over the course of the last 612 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:41,640 Speaker 12: two months, Signature Bank, First Republic, and the uninsured deposits 613 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:46,680 Speaker 12: at these institutions moved away from the bank with speed 614 00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:49,920 Speaker 12: and out of volume that we had never seen before. 615 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:55,240 Speaker 12: I mean, the largest amounts that had ever run from 616 00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:57,880 Speaker 12: a bank in the previously largest bank failures in the 617 00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:02,560 Speaker 12: country's history had been and I think eighteen billion dollars 618 00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:07,520 Speaker 12: over the course of almost a month. And in Silicon 619 00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,360 Speaker 12: Valley Banks case, forty two billion dollars left the bank 620 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,760 Speaker 12: in a day, and the bank was getting ready to 621 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:14,880 Speaker 12: open the next day with the expectation that another one 622 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,120 Speaker 12: hundred billion dollars would have left the bank. You'd have 623 00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,320 Speaker 12: one hundred and forty two billion dollars leaving the bank 624 00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 12: in the course of twenty four hours. 625 00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:24,960 Speaker 2: Finally, one more thought sold to the highest bidder, the 626 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,520 Speaker 2: sound of the gavel coming down, the thrill of victory 627 00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:30,160 Speaker 2: over all those who couldn't or wouldn't bid up the 628 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,440 Speaker 2: price one last time. There's just about nothing quite as 629 00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:37,320 Speaker 2: dramatic as competition measured in money, and that's why auctions 630 00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:41,880 Speaker 2: are so exciting. No matter what's being sold, be it fine. 631 00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:44,320 Speaker 13: Art, ladies and gentlemen, it gives me great pleasure to 632 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,800 Speaker 13: present Look two hundred and thirty. 633 00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 2: One or Premier League football clubs like Manchester United. 634 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:53,920 Speaker 8: And Manchester United sores amid rapports that the Qataris are 635 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,360 Speaker 8: bidding for the world famous football club. 636 00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,600 Speaker 2: Or failing banks like First Republic. We've had a good 637 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:03,200 Speaker 2: look before, and now the Inflation Reduction Act has introduced 638 00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 2: a whole new level of auctions, not just billions, but 639 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:09,280 Speaker 2: hundreds of billions of dollars in federal money at state 640 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,760 Speaker 2: for those investing in green energy or in semiconductors. 641 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:16,200 Speaker 14: The whole point of this is to increase innovation, research 642 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:20,200 Speaker 14: and development in the industry, not you know, we're not 643 00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:24,280 Speaker 14: giving you taxpayer money to fluff your pillow and increase 644 00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 14: your profit and give it away to your shareholders. 645 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,840 Speaker 2: And the bidders in these auctions aren't wealthy individuals or 646 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:34,320 Speaker 2: a large corporations. Their states and even countries offering concessions 647 00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:37,240 Speaker 2: to get companies to invest in manufacturing with them rather 648 00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,520 Speaker 2: than with their rivals, as Canada's stepped up to historic 649 00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 2: incentives to get volksag and to build its battery plant 650 00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:45,640 Speaker 2: in Ottawa rather than across the border. 651 00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:48,840 Speaker 15: Yes, the IRA is something that we've had to step 652 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 15: up to to make sure we're competitive, but we're going 653 00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,920 Speaker 15: to be a lot more strategic about how we pick 654 00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,480 Speaker 15: and choose the right investments. We can't just do a 655 00:33:57,520 --> 00:33:59,200 Speaker 15: blanket like the US can. 656 00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:00,240 Speaker 1: Not to be outdone. 657 00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:03,680 Speaker 2: This week, over fifty states and territories on this side 658 00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,560 Speaker 2: of the border gathered together in Washington at the Select 659 00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,960 Speaker 2: USA event. That's all to bid against one another for 660 00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,480 Speaker 2: the foreign investors who are trying to get their share 661 00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:14,799 Speaker 2: of the three hundred and sixty nine billion dollars in 662 00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,000 Speaker 2: green subsidies and the seventy six billion dollars in grants 663 00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:22,719 Speaker 2: and tax credits for semiconductor manufacturing. But maybe, just maybe 664 00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,240 Speaker 2: this is not the end of it, but instead only 665 00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:28,400 Speaker 2: the preliminary round in what could become the biggest bidding 666 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:32,640 Speaker 2: war in history, the United States against China for the 667 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,880 Speaker 2: grand prize of global technological leadership. 668 00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:39,839 Speaker 7: And we seek competition, not conflict. But I will make 669 00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:44,800 Speaker 7: no apologies that we're investing in to make America stronger. 670 00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,320 Speaker 7: Investing in American innovation and industries will define the future 671 00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:50,600 Speaker 7: that China intends to be dominating. 672 00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:54,399 Speaker 2: Whatever happened to all that criticism of China putting its 673 00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:58,439 Speaker 2: heavy thumb on the economic scales, Well maybe you can't 674 00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,920 Speaker 2: beat them, you just join them. That does it for 675 00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:03,160 Speaker 2: this edition of Bloomberg Wall Street Week. If you missed 676 00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:06,040 Speaker 2: any part of today's program, you can listen on demand 677 00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:09,799 Speaker 2: with our Wall Street Week podcast. Find that on Apple, Spotify, 678 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:13,200 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you get your podcasts. I'm David Weston. 679 00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:16,720 Speaker 2: Stay with us. Today's top stories and global business headlines 680 00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:18,280 Speaker 2: are coming up right now