WEBVTT - Lots More on the Growing Risks to the US Labor Market

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, Crecy.

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<v Speaker 2>Did you read our newsletter con trips this week? Neil

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<v Speaker 2>Data and Scanda.

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<v Speaker 3>It would be terrible if I didn't. Not only did

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<v Speaker 3>I read them, I lightly edited them.

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<v Speaker 2>That's right.

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<v Speaker 1>You did? You did?

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<v Speaker 3>You did?

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<v Speaker 2>I think I uploaded the text of them and then

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<v Speaker 2>you edited them. I did a deadlist.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm both the most popular trader and most successful trader

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<v Speaker 3>at citadel.

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<v Speaker 2>FEA is going viral.

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<v Speaker 3>H barges.

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<v Speaker 2>This isn't after school special, except.

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<v Speaker 3>I've decided I'm going to base my entire personality going

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<v Speaker 3>forward on campaigning for a strategic pork reserve in the US.

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<v Speaker 2>Black goals.

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<v Speaker 3>These are the important questions that robots taking over the world.

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<v Speaker 2>No, I think that like in a couple of years,

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<v Speaker 2>the AI will do a really good job of making

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<v Speaker 2>the out launch podcast. One day that person will have

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<v Speaker 2>the mandate of Heaven.

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<v Speaker 3>How do I get more popular and successful?

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<v Speaker 2>We do have Welcome to lots More, where we catch

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<v Speaker 2>up with friends about what's going on right now.

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<v Speaker 3>Because even when odd Thoughts is over, there's always lots more.

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<v Speaker 2>And we really do have the perfect guest.

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<v Speaker 3>I have to say, though they were both great, and

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not just plugging our newsletter. Those were outstanding contributions,

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<v Speaker 3>and they sort of build on something that Scanda pointed

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<v Speaker 3>out earlier in the newsletter about how embedded or how

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<v Speaker 3>important AI is becoming to the US economy.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and like this idea like there are signs of

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<v Speaker 2>slowing Oh yeah, I feel like we're in a moment

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<v Speaker 2>where actually there just aren't really many people talk about

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<v Speaker 2>the economy because we're either so transfixed by the goings

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<v Speaker 2>on in Washington or certain big tech stories like AI

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<v Speaker 2>that were in a period where there's this lull of

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<v Speaker 2>like just the meat and potatoes, like what's happening with

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<v Speaker 2>initial claims, what's happening with housing starts, what's happening with

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<v Speaker 2>the jobs report? And there's actually signs of slowdown?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and there's also signs well, there's also signs of

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<v Speaker 3>inflation picking back.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>And so that kind of raises the question about what's

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<v Speaker 3>the Fed's reaction function here. We thought it was sort

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<v Speaker 3>of skewed towards preventing a recession a little while ago,

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<v Speaker 3>but now like maybe they start caring about inflation again.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know, But you know the other thing that's

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<v Speaker 2>happened over the last week is that we have had

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<v Speaker 2>this pretty substantial drop in ten year yields. As of

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<v Speaker 2>the time we were recording this, which is March twenty seventh,

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<v Speaker 2>we touched four point twenty five yesterday. We had been

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<v Speaker 2>at four point six five on February twelve.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's like the curve inverted again as well.

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<v Speaker 2>The curve. It's a weird time, John Turk, what do

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<v Speaker 2>you think, Why what happened that we were at four

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<v Speaker 2>point sixty five percent on the ten year February twelve

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<v Speaker 2>and right now we're at four point two eight eighty six.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think it's it's an interesting one.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, as you guys kind of noted, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I think we came into this year with a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of excitement in terms of, you know, what the policy

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<v Speaker 1>impulse would mean for the economy. It seemed that the

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<v Speaker 1>animal spirits we're going to lead to a more meaningful

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<v Speaker 1>real growth impulse. I mean, I think the famous Dan

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<v Speaker 1>Druckie Miller said in a note or on a TV

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<v Speaker 1>interview that he hadn't seen the business community that's excited

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<v Speaker 1>in like his forty years in the business. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that We've had a little bit of a

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<v Speaker 1>transition in like what that policy impulse means and the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that it seemingly.

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<v Speaker 4>Is two sided. You know, as we're seeing today.

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<v Speaker 1>Tariffs are also a big part of that policy impulse,

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<v Speaker 1>and as we've seen over the last few weeks, it

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<v Speaker 1>has a very unevenness and too, either both the implementation

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<v Speaker 1>and the scope. So I think, you know, the market

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<v Speaker 1>kind of has had to adjust to you know, a

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<v Speaker 1>policy impulse that seemed to be unambiguously positive to one

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<v Speaker 1>that's more mixed, and I think the tenure is just

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<v Speaker 1>you know, kind of a reflection of that. I would

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<v Speaker 1>also note, as Tracy pointed out about you know, sort

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<v Speaker 1>of inflation pricing.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, a lot of the moves, especially.

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<v Speaker 1>Since the middle of January, is has been in real

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<v Speaker 1>gyields lower as in tenure break events have actually stayed

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<v Speaker 1>pretty firm. So you know, I think that the yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>the economy is having to the market is sort of

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<v Speaker 1>having to deal with you know, economy that's been a

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<v Speaker 1>little more confusing, and you know, the policy impulse is

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<v Speaker 1>is more muddled this time around, where you have you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the potential for tax custody regulation on one side, and

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<v Speaker 1>just a lot of tariff uncertainty that is potential in scope,

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<v Speaker 1>much more drastic than we saw in Trump one point

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<v Speaker 1>zero ye. So you know, I think that that is,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, sort of at the nexus of what's going

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<v Speaker 1>on here. And you know, just to add one more thing,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you guys kind of made it up of

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<v Speaker 1>like the meat and potatoes of the economy. I think

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<v Speaker 1>that you know, for the last two years, we've been

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<v Speaker 1>in a very stable nominal GDP regime. It's we've kind

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<v Speaker 1>of oscillated between high fours and high fives, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the economy seems to be running on a few less

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<v Speaker 1>cylinders than it has been in the last couple of years.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, consumption is much more uneven and very biased

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<v Speaker 1>towards the high end outside of the AI capex cycle

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<v Speaker 1>really isn't that much capex. And we've seen that housing

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<v Speaker 1>has been in a lull now for a while, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, hiring isn't that high.

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<v Speaker 4>So it's just a much more, you know, a lot

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<v Speaker 4>more cross currents.

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<v Speaker 1>Than I think the market probably had anticipated six weeks ago.

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<v Speaker 3>So we are recording this on February twenty seventh. In

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<v Speaker 3>about a week we are going to get us payrolls

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<v Speaker 3>for February. We just had initial claims, as Joe mentioned,

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<v Speaker 3>showing that they jump to the highest level so far

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<v Speaker 3>this year, I think, increasing by twenty two thousand. A

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<v Speaker 3>lot of that is the cuts in d C. What

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<v Speaker 3>are you saying on the labor side of things, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>I think that, you.

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<v Speaker 1>Know, from the labor market perspective, I still think the

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<v Speaker 1>economy is in a decent equilibrium in terms of that

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<v Speaker 1>we have a pretty stable unemployment rate, We're still churning

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<v Speaker 1>out pretty respectable levels of payroll growth per month, and

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<v Speaker 1>that that's you know, sort of been noted by the

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<v Speaker 1>Fed now that you know, they're much less worried about

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<v Speaker 1>the labor market side of their mandate.

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<v Speaker 4>Than they were saying Q three.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, but I think what's a little bit worrying

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<v Speaker 1>is that the labor market is kind of coming into this,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, whatever the DC impulse is. You know, I

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<v Speaker 1>would say a little bit more vulnerable to shocks than

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<v Speaker 1>it's been maybe over the last few years. And I

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<v Speaker 1>would I would namely say that because the hiring rate

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<v Speaker 1>is still quite low, which means it doesn't take much

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of you know, negative payroll impulses to sort

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<v Speaker 1>of lead to more drastic jumps in the unemployment rate.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know, I don't necessarily look at it right

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<v Speaker 1>now and say, you know, there's an obvious threat to

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<v Speaker 1>three months the labor market being materially weaker than it

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<v Speaker 1>is now. I still kind of get the sense that

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<v Speaker 1>it's pretty stable, but I would say that kind we

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<v Speaker 1>feel a bit more vulnerable given that we don't have

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<v Speaker 1>the cushion of a decent hiring rate. So probably a

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<v Speaker 1>bit more vulnerable. You know, if this DC impulse is

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<v Speaker 1>more of a shock, that could you know, it could

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<v Speaker 1>spiral a little quicker now than say a year or

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<v Speaker 1>two ago.

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<v Speaker 2>I saw someone make this point on Twitter. I wish

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<v Speaker 2>I could remember who so I could give them credit.

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<v Speaker 3>He said.

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<v Speaker 2>One encouraging thing that we've seen lately in the markets

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<v Speaker 2>is that at long last, there are hints of the

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<v Speaker 2>inverse correlation between stocks and treasuries re emerging. That was

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<v Speaker 2>the famous condition of the twenty tens that if stocks

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<v Speaker 2>went down that day, your treasury is probably did well,

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<v Speaker 2>and you got that beautiful hedging effect from that. And

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<v Speaker 2>then it famously blew up in the immediate wake of COVID,

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<v Speaker 2>where you'd have these big down days in stocks and

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<v Speaker 2>also big down days and treasuries as inflation took center stage,

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<v Speaker 2>is the main source of economic worry, et cetera in

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<v Speaker 2>recent days? Are we potentially looking at signs that we

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<v Speaker 2>might go back to something resembling more pre COVID patterns

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<v Speaker 2>And is that a sign that the price on the

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<v Speaker 2>so called fed put is not so as far out

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<v Speaker 2>of the money as it had been in recent years.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, it's a good question. I'm not sure, you know.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that, you know, the simple empirics that have

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<v Speaker 1>kind of come out is that when core PC is

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<v Speaker 1>printing below three, you'll get a decent buffer from treasuries

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<v Speaker 1>in the way of a growth shock that will, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>cush and get the risk asset side of your portfolio.

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<v Speaker 4>And when you know.

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<v Speaker 1>Core PC is above three, you don't have that, and

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<v Speaker 1>you can their worlds, as we saw in twenty twenty two,

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<v Speaker 1>you lose. You lose on both. I think that it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's a little early on in terms of kind of

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<v Speaker 1>getting a sense for like what the tariff impact on

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<v Speaker 1>spot inflation is going to be, because you know, I

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<v Speaker 1>think that what's different to me about this time versus

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Trump one point zero is the psychology of

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<v Speaker 1>price stting is totally different.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and as.

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<v Speaker 1>We see every Q one, you know, even in an

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<v Speaker 1>economy that's you know, much more balanced in terms of inflation,

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<v Speaker 1>where we you know, we've noted that you know, companies

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<v Speaker 1>don't feel this same ability to pass through price, but

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<v Speaker 1>we see every Q one the price resets. I've still

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<v Speaker 1>been pretty strong, especially as its place is now like Canada,

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<v Speaker 1>who are you know, being inflicted in all this?

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<v Speaker 4>It seems that you kind of have to keep.

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<v Speaker 1>An open mind that you know, spot inflation could move

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<v Speaker 1>a decent amount if the price centers feel that in

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<v Speaker 1>the post COVID world it's much easier to pass through

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<v Speaker 1>any pain on their input side to the output side.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think, from like a base case, I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's fair to say that, you know, we're not durably

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<v Speaker 1>going to a core PC plus three world, so that

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<v Speaker 1>Treasury should sort of.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, the underlying fundamentals of the sixty forty should

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<v Speaker 4>be okay.

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<v Speaker 1>But I wouldn't say it's all you know, it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of all clear for return to the pre COVID world.

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<v Speaker 1>We just don't really know yet how price centers are

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<v Speaker 1>going to internalize this pass through.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Joe, I remember Tom Barkin over at the Richmond

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<v Speaker 3>Fed making exactly this point, this idea that one of

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<v Speaker 3>the things companies learned from the post COVID world was

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<v Speaker 3>just how fast and perhaps just how far they could

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<v Speaker 3>push on price. And so that's still lingering in their minds,

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<v Speaker 3>even if they're not doing it as much as they

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<v Speaker 3>were back then. So it seems like they could raise

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<v Speaker 3>them very quickly if they if they saw a jet No.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm fascinated by that. The reminder that price increases can

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<v Speaker 2>be part of the corporate playbook is not going to

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<v Speaker 2>be forgotten. By the way, I should mention John Turik

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<v Speaker 2>as the founder and CEO of JST Advisors. Been a

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<v Speaker 2>few years since we had them on. It's nice having

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<v Speaker 2>them back. Let's talk about the DC impulse. So I

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<v Speaker 2>think right now, these cuts that we've seen towards federal employment,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, very few people would say they're going to

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<v Speaker 2>meaningfully change the dial on you know, deficits, et cetera

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<v Speaker 2>at this point, but they're real, and there happened, and

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<v Speaker 2>there's a lot of anxiety and there are a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of people who are out of a job that never

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<v Speaker 2>expected to be And there are a lot of stories

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<v Speaker 2>we saw in a recent there was I think there's

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<v Speaker 2>the Conference Board survey respondent saying that expectations of fewer

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<v Speaker 2>jobs existing six months from now that spiked in the

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<v Speaker 2>survey highest level. Now, I think since like twenty thirteen,

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<v Speaker 2>talk to us like a little bit about like how

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<v Speaker 2>you are thinking about the sort of macro impulse from

0:11:19.760 --> 0:11:22.280
<v Speaker 2>the labor market cutting that's happening in DC.

0:11:23.880 --> 0:11:26.520
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean I think that, you know, as a

0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:30.040
<v Speaker 1>as a baseline, you know, it's hard to see that

0:11:30.800 --> 0:11:33.600
<v Speaker 1>it being a you know, an outsized factor in terms

0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:35.800
<v Speaker 1>of like kind of the status quo in the labor market.

0:11:35.960 --> 0:11:37.560
<v Speaker 1>But I think, you know, kind of as I said,

0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:39.199
<v Speaker 1>I think you have to kind of take it in

0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:41.600
<v Speaker 1>the context of the hiring rate in the economy is

0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:44.800
<v Speaker 1>lower now, so I think the labor market as.

0:11:44.679 --> 0:11:46.680
<v Speaker 4>A whole is more vulnerable to.

0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:49.920
<v Speaker 1>Things that you know, kind of net net shouldn't be

0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:52.319
<v Speaker 1>as big of a deal. And I think that's kind

0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:55.079
<v Speaker 1>of gotten the market's attention as we you know, we've

0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:56.960
<v Speaker 1>kind of, like you know, over the last few weeks,

0:11:57.520 --> 0:12:00.960
<v Speaker 1>entertained more left tail risks is that, you know, the

0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:04.640
<v Speaker 1>starting conditions really matter when you're dealing with exogenous variables,

0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:05.760
<v Speaker 1>and you know.

0:12:05.760 --> 0:12:07.600
<v Speaker 4>The starting conditions for the labor market are.

0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:10.760
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's steady, but it's not bulletproof, and it

0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:13.559
<v Speaker 1>has been bulletproof, you know, probably for.

0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:16.440
<v Speaker 4>The last three years, maybe really since COVID.

0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:19.720
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, I think, you know, it's hard to say,

0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:22.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's hard to map out the sort of

0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:25.280
<v Speaker 1>the spillover in terms of like you know, what number

0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:27.920
<v Speaker 1>claims will be in four weeks, But I think you

0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:30.400
<v Speaker 1>really have to keep an open mind to the left

0:12:30.400 --> 0:12:40.920
<v Speaker 1>tail side that the starting point isn't great.

0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:48.640
<v Speaker 2>By the way, Tracy, for people listening who want to

0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:52.200
<v Speaker 2>understand this sort of why some of the engines that

0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:55.840
<v Speaker 2>are not that we're growing are not there anymore, I thought,

0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:59.000
<v Speaker 2>you know, so Neil's more points, real lend coomes aren't

0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:02.560
<v Speaker 2>rising anymore, the housing market is no longer showing the

0:13:02.600 --> 0:13:07.360
<v Speaker 2>signs of life. Local government spending is clearly there is

0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:10.360
<v Speaker 2>a fiscal retrudgment. Clearly it's not just what's happening in DOSE,

0:13:10.440 --> 0:13:12.559
<v Speaker 2>it's also state and locals which are no longer flush

0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:15.600
<v Speaker 2>with money. So like they're like, this is when when

0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:18.840
<v Speaker 2>John here is talking about you know, not as many

0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:22.520
<v Speaker 2>engines are firing. There's some pretty big forces that sort

0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:25.400
<v Speaker 2>of give people caution or why the hiring rate is

0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:26.200
<v Speaker 2>not great right now?

0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:29.760
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. Absolutely. And John, you brought up earlier the tariffs,

0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:32.560
<v Speaker 3>and I think some of those are slated to start

0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:36.520
<v Speaker 3>as soon as next week. How long would you expect

0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:39.520
<v Speaker 3>it would take for the effects of those to feed

0:13:39.600 --> 0:13:43.680
<v Speaker 3>into the US economy, either in terms of corporate earnings

0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:44.960
<v Speaker 3>or the inflation rate.

0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:47.560
<v Speaker 1>You know. I think the interesting thing about tariffs as

0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:50.160
<v Speaker 1>opposed to a lot of other policy measures is the

0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:53.640
<v Speaker 1>impact is like fairly mechanical, so you know it immediately

0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:57.360
<v Speaker 1>it has its effects impact, It immediately has its you know,

0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:00.720
<v Speaker 1>direct trade impact. And I think, you know, kind of

0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:03.160
<v Speaker 1>the deeper questions will be like what are like the

0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:06.240
<v Speaker 1>broader externalities, because I you know, something that like really

0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:09.160
<v Speaker 1>fascinated me was Governor maclam gave us a Bank of

0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:11.920
<v Speaker 1>Bank Bank of Canada gave a speech last week and

0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:13.959
<v Speaker 1>he was talking about sort of like what these numbers

0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:16.680
<v Speaker 1>would mean for the Canadian economy, and he was saying, well,

0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:19.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, they're huge because you know, trade is twenty

0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:22.320
<v Speaker 1>five percent of the national income in Canada trade with

0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:22.600
<v Speaker 1>the US.

0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:23.160
<v Speaker 4>Excuse me?

0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:26.480
<v Speaker 1>Will that impact because it'll eventually sorts sort of you know,

0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:29.440
<v Speaker 1>feedback into the US. So, you know, I think that,

0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:31.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, in terms of the scope, I think that

0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:34.960
<v Speaker 1>the two things now that are sort of critical are

0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:37.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, in terms of who eats sort of the

0:14:38.000 --> 0:14:43.000
<v Speaker 1>cost corporations really you know, take a bigger share or

0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:45.040
<v Speaker 1>while they try to pass it on, and then I think,

0:14:45.120 --> 0:14:47.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, sort of the you know, the next the

0:14:47.840 --> 0:14:49.840
<v Speaker 1>next big dominant will be the question of like what

0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:53.160
<v Speaker 1>is the bigger impact the mechanical effect on price or

0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:55.360
<v Speaker 1>the more psychological effect on growth, where it just becomes

0:14:55.480 --> 0:14:58.240
<v Speaker 1>very hard to operate in an environment where you know,

0:14:58.280 --> 0:15:01.080
<v Speaker 1>we're a you know, a tweet of away from or

0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:03.080
<v Speaker 1>sorry whatever platform uses.

0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:07.200
<v Speaker 4>Now from like a you know, it's very hard to

0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:08.280
<v Speaker 4>plan in that sort of world.

0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:09.960
<v Speaker 1>You know, we had two weeks ago we thought we

0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:12.120
<v Speaker 1>were delayed until April, and then today it comes out

0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:14.560
<v Speaker 1>that they start next week. You know, I think those

0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:16.600
<v Speaker 1>are kind of the two like very immediate questions that

0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:18.760
<v Speaker 1>will get a real feel for, I think pretty quickly,

0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:21.480
<v Speaker 1>and then you know, kind of zooming out the bigger

0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:24.360
<v Speaker 1>questions is like how does the global economy absorb this

0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:27.040
<v Speaker 1>because some of these numbers this time around, and I

0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:29.000
<v Speaker 1>think it's a big point emphasized, where like a lot

0:15:29.040 --> 0:15:31.880
<v Speaker 1>of the tariffs last time, we're really focused on China

0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:36.000
<v Speaker 1>and substitution effects like kicked in pretty quickly, and also

0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:38.120
<v Speaker 1>the companies had.

0:15:38.000 --> 0:15:40.400
<v Speaker 4>Time to sort of digest that this was coming. Where

0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:41.920
<v Speaker 4>this time around, both.

0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:43.960
<v Speaker 1>In terms of scope and who it's applicable to, seems

0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:45.200
<v Speaker 1>much more vast.

0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:49.040
<v Speaker 4>So you know, I think that will be uh, really crucial.

0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.520
<v Speaker 2>To watch Tracy. Something I've been thinking about a lot

0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:53.880
<v Speaker 2>is that if you want to find like the sort

0:15:53.880 --> 0:15:57.520
<v Speaker 2>of first of all, admire the fact that Trump still

0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:01.760
<v Speaker 2>pushed primarily primarily to truth. So even though Twitter is

0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:06.440
<v Speaker 2>sort of the spiritual home of trump Ism is on Twitter.

0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:08.840
<v Speaker 2>So the fact that he's sticking the truth social I

0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:10.040
<v Speaker 2>sort of admire.

0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:12.680
<v Speaker 3>Do you think talks to him wondering.

0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:14.160
<v Speaker 2>Like what does Elon think about this, that he's still

0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:18.000
<v Speaker 2>holding out on truth social anyway? You know, I always think, like,

0:16:18.280 --> 0:16:20.920
<v Speaker 2>you know, there's sort of like a core pillar of

0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:23.280
<v Speaker 2>the sort of Trump coalition in the United States is

0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:27.360
<v Speaker 2>like small business owners and small business optimism. You know,

0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:29.520
<v Speaker 2>it's been through the roof since the election, but they

0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:31.720
<v Speaker 2>don't like tariffs by and large. And if you look

0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:34.320
<v Speaker 2>at any regional business survey, et cetera, you'll find a

0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:38.920
<v Speaker 2>lot of clearly politically inclined respondents who are excited about

0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:42.280
<v Speaker 2>the Trump administration and then say, but we're worried about trade.

0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:45.800
<v Speaker 2>And I'm actually, for the first time, especially assuming these

0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:49.680
<v Speaker 2>tariffs go into effact, extremely excited about the headline numbers

0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:52.560
<v Speaker 2>of the FIB survey in the coming months. So you

0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:56.280
<v Speaker 2>have this core Republican constituency which is totally on board

0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:59.400
<v Speaker 2>generally with everything except tariffs. I think that's gonna be

0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:00.000
<v Speaker 2>something interesting.

0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:02.280
<v Speaker 3>You know, It's going to be really interesting to see

0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:06.879
<v Speaker 3>whether I guess political allegiance trumps some of the feelings

0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:10.120
<v Speaker 3>around business effects. Ooh, I said Trump's there's a pun

0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:10.520
<v Speaker 3>for you.

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:13.800
<v Speaker 2>It's crazy his name is Trump. Sorry, I always think, like,

0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:16.399
<v Speaker 2>what an amazing appam anyway, I mean, you owned the

0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:18.399
<v Speaker 2>casino and his name is Trump. I know this has

0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:21.119
<v Speaker 2>been observed hundreds of times, but it still always blows

0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:21.440
<v Speaker 2>my mind.

0:17:21.600 --> 0:17:23.240
<v Speaker 3>Thank you Joe for reminding us.

0:17:23.560 --> 0:17:25.680
<v Speaker 2>It's his real name that blows my mind all the time.

0:17:30.200 --> 0:17:33.280
<v Speaker 3>Lots more is produced by Carmen Rodriguez and dash Ell Bennett,

0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:35.640
<v Speaker 3>with help from Moses Ondom and Cal Brooks.

0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:39.040
<v Speaker 2>Our sound engineer is Blake Maples. Sage Bauman is the

0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:40.440
<v Speaker 2>head of Bloomberg Podcasts.

0:17:40.680 --> 0:17:43.800
<v Speaker 3>Please rate, review, and subscribe to Odd, Lots and Lots

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