WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2023 NFL Week 5 Guessing Lines Show 0:00:04.559 --> 0:00:06.840 The numbers told the story they always do. It's one 0:00:06.840 --> 0:00:08.720 of those idiots who believe in the analytics. 0:00:08.800 --> 0:00:13.520 This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander, Good Monday 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:15.920 Morning to It is a numbers game at Visa v Sports, 0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:18.600 Betty Network, Visa dot Com, the Visa AB Game plus iHeartRadio, 0:00:18.640 --> 0:00:22.120 YouTube TV, and of course the DK Network. It's Gil Alexander, 0:00:22.120 --> 0:00:26.000 It's Kelly Bidlin live from bar Canada at the d How. 0:00:25.840 --> 0:00:28.880 You do it good? Just peachey, my friend, How are 0:00:28.920 --> 0:00:29.280 you doing? 0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:31.680 I'm doing very well. What was your millions record yesterday? 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:36.479 Three and three and one with Seahawks pending? But I 0:00:36.520 --> 0:00:38.080 had the Colts as the one, So. 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:40.720 Get away from me, hod On. At what point here 0:00:41.200 --> 0:00:45.560 are you like actually thinking to yourself this could be something? 0:00:45.920 --> 0:00:48.720 Because aren't you like nineteen and five? Right now? Ask 0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:49.360 me three? 0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:50.560 Ask me in two months? 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:51.800 Man. 0:00:51.880 --> 0:00:53.400 I mean I don't have any chance at the quarter. 0:00:53.560 --> 0:00:56.520 I forget the quarter. I'm talking about the big whole thing. Man. 0:00:56.960 --> 0:00:59.280 So what was I eleven and four? So I fourteen 0:00:59.360 --> 0:00:59.840 and five? 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:02.400 All right, fourteen and five, I'm sorry, fourteen skipped ahead? 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:04.320 Fourteenth five? All right, n I'll get back to you 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:06.280 in a few weeks. Nice job on your part. Thanks, 0:01:06.319 --> 0:01:08.760 I'm just in your drift. No A, it's all I'm doing. 0:01:08.880 --> 0:01:09.800 It's one of those we. 0:01:09.720 --> 0:01:11.679 Talk about all the time. That's a record, that is 0:01:11.720 --> 0:01:13.320 a sick NFL record. 0:01:13.000 --> 0:01:15.400 But when it comes to a contest, doesn't freaking matter. 0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:17.520 You keep doing fourteen and fives, you'll be all right. 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:20.520 This is guessing lines. For those who are new to 0:01:20.560 --> 0:01:22.840 the show, what we do here Mondays during the football 0:01:22.880 --> 0:01:25.160 season is we have our first insects. We go through 0:01:25.200 --> 0:01:28.320 every game that went that has gone by the previous 0:01:28.360 --> 0:01:31.600 Sunday yesterday the National Football League, and in doing so 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:34.440 we will then guess lines for the upcoming games. And 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:38.400 in that process, oftentimes this year it seems like every 0:01:38.440 --> 0:01:42.080 time it's our best instinct. Witnessed the Jaguars as the 0:01:42.080 --> 0:01:45.160 biggest difference I had between the line yesterday and the 0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:48.600 actual game line of the Jaguars roll the Falcons in London, 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:51.000 which we will get to when we talk about those teams. 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:54.400 And it's not just about really what my guesses are, 0:01:54.480 --> 0:01:57.240 it's about you doing it yourself at home. It's a 0:01:57.280 --> 0:02:00.560 great way to start your handicapping week. You don't have 0:02:00.560 --> 0:02:02.840 to lock into it, but your first instincts are something 0:02:02.880 --> 0:02:05.000 that you should always note. I think anyway, historically on 0:02:05.040 --> 0:02:08.079 this show, dating back to when Chrissy and I did this, 0:02:08.080 --> 0:02:10.880 this was alway was the thing. And appreciate all the 0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:14.440 downloads for this in the megapod humbled By. It seems 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:17.240 to still resonate with everybody year after year, week after week. 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:18.800 So we began, well, first of all, let me just 0:02:18.800 --> 0:02:20.480 say the Survivor. Let's just get that out of the way. 0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:24.160 Remember how last week before the weekend, I said, oh, 0:02:24.280 --> 0:02:26.720 ninety nine and a half entries my over under, and 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:29.440 then it was like, you know, two thousand got knocked out, 0:02:30.280 --> 0:02:35.440 ninety two yesterday or this week so far, So this 0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:37.399 was the week I should have said that ninety two. 0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:40.320 Really from the beginning of the pool, one percent of 0:02:40.360 --> 0:02:44.200 the entire pool that entered Circus Survivor this year got 0:02:44.280 --> 0:02:47.200 knocked out yesterday. So we're still over two thousand entries. 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:50.359 No one, I think a couple people have the I 0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:52.359 think one person has that. You know, two people have 0:02:52.400 --> 0:02:54.640 the Seahawks. Nobody has the Giants tonight, so it won't 0:02:54.720 --> 0:02:57.120 change much. We will have fewer than one hundred people 0:02:57.160 --> 0:02:58.639 knocked out of Circus survivor this week. 0:02:58.760 --> 0:02:59.520 Four on the Giants. 0:03:00.560 --> 0:03:02.440 Oh they're above there, you're right. Four on the Giants, 0:03:02.440 --> 0:03:07.720 two on the Seahawks, four on the Giants. One four people. Okay, 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:09.560 by the way, that was another one. I guess Seattle 0:03:09.560 --> 0:03:11.400 would be the favorite last week. The Giants were at 0:03:11.440 --> 0:03:13.760 the time. Now Seattle is the favorite. So again those 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:15.480 first instincts pretty good. Do you and you you're on 0:03:15.520 --> 0:03:17.880 Seattle tonight as your fine, I'm on, I am too, 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:20.440 I am small bet and then contest play for contest 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:22.680 play for me as well. Okay, let us begin. 0:03:22.880 --> 0:03:25.040 Let's fire it up. What do you got guessing lines? 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:31.720 Just start it up there. It is the Marquee Well pardon, 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:35.000 we figured since we have this for college football guessing lines, 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:37.840 maybe we should do this for the actual guessing lines. 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:40.600 And it's got that whole a n G A numbers 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:43.200 game on there all right Thursday night. 0:03:43.680 --> 0:03:48.840 This is a great one. Bears at Commanders. Oh boy, okay, 0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:51.280 so let me just ask this out front. If the 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:53.680 Bears happened to win this game, not saying they will, 0:03:53.680 --> 0:03:55.120 but if they happened to win this game, do I 0:03:55.200 --> 0:04:00.000 win my last winless team bet on the Panthers immediately. Wait, 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:03.240 so I have the Panthers, as you know, fifteen to 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:07.040 one before the season, last winless team A bet on 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:09.000 quite proud of. I hope we gets Oh, I see 0:04:09.040 --> 0:04:12.000 what the Bears great? If the Bears win on Thursday, 0:04:12.000 --> 0:04:13.200 do I win automatically? 0:04:13.240 --> 0:04:13.800 I think so? 0:04:13.920 --> 0:04:16.440 I think so too. Anyway, we'll get to that. 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:19.719 Wow, that is a great fine print question. We haven't 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:21.039 had to attack that one before. 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:23.120 The Bears are zero to four, one of the only 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:26.560 two remaining Owen fours. As we just stated yesterday, Man, 0:04:26.600 --> 0:04:29.400 what can you say? They played the Broncos. Broncos first drive, 0:04:29.440 --> 0:04:31.800 they go eighty four yards Wilson to Julil McLaughlin from 0:04:31.800 --> 0:04:34.160 eighteen out seven and nothing Denver. But the Bears came 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:36.280 right back seventy five yards fields to DJ More from 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:38.920 twenty nine outs seven to seven beginning of the second quarter, 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:41.320 fourteen forty eight left in that frame. After a Denver 0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:43.599 three and out, Bears go fifty six yards fields to 0:04:43.640 --> 0:04:45.760 More for twenty four, follow two plays later by Fields 0:04:45.880 --> 0:04:47.800 to Cole Commet for twenty two in the end zone. 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:50.600 Fourteen to seven Bears eleven forty four left. Second quarter, 0:04:50.640 --> 0:04:53.919 Then after another Broncos punt, Bears go eighty five yards 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:56.719 Fields to comment from three out, twenty one to seven Bears. 0:04:57.040 --> 0:04:59.160 That would be the score at the half, and at 0:04:59.160 --> 0:05:03.120 halftime just Houston fields. Let me repeat that, justin fields 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:07.280 would be sixteen of seventeen for two thirty one, three touchdowns, 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:10.039 no picks, only sacked twice at the half. First Bears 0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:13.239 drive of the second half after another Denver punt, fifteen plays, 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:15.680 sixty six yards Fields to Khalil Herbert from two out 0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:19.839 touchdown twenty eight to seven Bears, four to eleven left 0:05:19.880 --> 0:05:22.320 in the third quarter, and at that point in the game, 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:27.560 pardon me, fields twenty three of twenty four for two 0:05:27.640 --> 0:05:31.240 eighty five and four touchdowns. Man, he's good. Are you late? 0:05:31.279 --> 0:05:33.920 I mean, how many people via text or whatever were saying, 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:37.920 I think I think he's figured out the game of football. Well. 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:40.720 Then Denver went seventy five yards Wilson of Brandon Johnson 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:42.520 for four out. It was twenty eight to fourteen Chicago, 0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:44.800 nine seconds left in the third quarter. Then after Chicago 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:48.000 three and out, Denver go seventy yards Wilson to Sutton 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:50.960 from thirteen out twenty eight to twenty one Chicago, then 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:53.719 nine thirty six left in the game. Then the fifth 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:57.120 play on the ensuing drive, Chicago's up a touchdown, clinging 0:05:57.160 --> 0:05:59.479 now first and ten at the Denver forty eight for 0:05:59.520 --> 0:06:02.719 the Bears field sacked by Nick Benito, he fumbles it 0:06:02.760 --> 0:06:05.760 and scooped by Jonathan Cooper thirty five yards to the 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:09.080 hiszy and we are tied at twenty eight with six 0:06:09.120 --> 0:06:11.800 to fifty five left. Bears them matriculate. Here is the 0:06:11.800 --> 0:06:14.560 moment of the game. Twenty eight, twenty eight, fourth and 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:17.040 one at the Denver eighteen with two fifty seven left. 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:21.000 Kelly Chicago tries to draw Denver off sides. They cannot, 0:06:21.520 --> 0:06:25.920 so they call timeout, then post timeout. After failing to 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:28.440 draw them off sides, they decide to go for it. 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:32.920 Herbert stuffed for no gain. Denver takes over at their 0:06:32.920 --> 0:06:35.920 own eighteen, two fifty two left. Wilson immediately to Mimes Junior. 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:38.359 How many times have I mentioned Mims Junior on this 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:41.719 show this year? This time for forty eight leads to 0:06:41.760 --> 0:06:44.240 a Lutz corkscrew fifty one yard field well. Denver's up 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:46.760 thirty one twenty eight, one forty six left, final drive. 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:48.560 You know it's gonna happen. Set back by an intentional 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:50.760 grounding calling fields then third and thirteen at their own 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:53.159 forty seven with thirty seven seconds left. Fields picked by 0:06:53.240 --> 0:06:57.920 Kareeine Jackson Ballgame thirty one, twenty eight, Denver, Oh Eberflus, 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:01.400 I have him first coach fire north of fifteen to one? 0:07:01.839 --> 0:07:03.479 Are the Bears just not going to fire him because 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:05.960 they've never fired a coach mid season? They just want 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:07.000 to keep that record in top. 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:10.040 There aren't certain teams like that you gotta be careful with, 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:12.160 like the Cowboys, right they always. 0:07:11.840 --> 0:07:14.720 That's that's the fly in the ointment of that bet. Yeah. 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:17.320 Eber Flus is three and eighteen as the Bears head 0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:19.320 coach now and matches the biggest blown lead in franchise 0:07:19.360 --> 0:07:22.160 history twenty one points, fourteenth loss in a row for 0:07:22.240 --> 0:07:24.680 the Bears, all given up twenty five plus points. Remember 0:07:24.720 --> 0:07:27.679 he was a decoordinator when he was hired. Fields twenty 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:29.680 eight of thirty five three thirty five is the final 0:07:29.720 --> 0:07:32.120 box course stats. Four touchdowns, one pick, you sacked four 0:07:32.160 --> 0:07:33.880 times four for twenty five on the ground with the 0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:37.160 fumble loss that was scooped and scored scooped in return 0:07:37.200 --> 0:07:39.120 for a touchdown Herbert eighteen for one zho three on 0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:41.440 the ground More eight for one thirty one touchdown comets 0:07:41.440 --> 0:07:44.400 seven for eighty six sembra eighty five, two touchdowns, ten penalties, 0:07:44.480 --> 0:07:47.240 ninety one yards outgained Denver four seventy one to three eleven. 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:49.840 Doesn't matter because they were minus two in turnovers both 0:07:49.880 --> 0:07:52.000 in the fourth quarter the sacks scoop and scored to 0:07:52.040 --> 0:07:53.960 tie the game at twenty eight and the pick to 0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:57.200 end it. Who are they playing? Oh yeah, Washington, Washington. 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:01.200 Talk about coaches. We just talked about everyflu Let's talk 0:08:01.200 --> 0:08:04.800 about Rivera Washingtons downfield opening drive, seventy five yard samuelin 0:08:04.880 --> 0:08:07.160 from one, seven to nothing, Washington seven to fifty two 0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:08.880 left in the first quarter. Eagles come right back, go 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:11.920 seventy five yards swift in from five. We're tied seven 0:08:11.960 --> 0:08:15.480 apiece one seventeen left. First quarter. Washington comes right back 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:17.760 seventy five yards second goal with the one. Robinson fumbles 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:20.280 before he breaks the plane, but the incomparable Terry McLaurin 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:23.120 recovers in fourteen to seven Washington twelve fifty six left. 0:08:23.160 --> 0:08:27.000 Second quarter. Took his push for the Eagles on the 0:08:27.040 --> 0:08:30.200 next drive at the at their own forty nine, but 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:32.320 the Landon Dickerson was lined up off side, so they 0:08:32.320 --> 0:08:35.160 had to punt. Washington makes it seventeen to seven on 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:38.040 a slide field goal. Halftime was seventeen to ten after 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:41.000 Elliott made a forty one yarder. Second half, Eagles cut 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:44.080 it to seventeen to thirteen. Elliott forty seven yarder. Washington 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:46.679 punt hurts the AJ Brown fifty nine yard touchdown pass 0:08:47.080 --> 0:08:50.280 with Brown just weaving in and out of traffic. Roughing 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:52.520 the passer penalty gave Philadelphia the bault the one on 0:08:52.559 --> 0:08:54.640 the conversion, so they decided to go for it. Gainwell 0:08:54.679 --> 0:08:57.439 ran it in twenty one to seventeen. Eagles seven eleven. 0:08:57.559 --> 0:08:59.600 Left real quick. Every time I actually AJ Brown have 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:01.679 a game like this, I just think to myself, can 0:09:01.720 --> 0:09:04.800 you imagine trading this guy? Turning him walk? Just let 0:09:04.920 --> 0:09:06.679 him walk? Incredible? 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:08.880 Tennessee's like, oh, we really need a receiver. We gotta 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:11.640 get dustint obvious, I said, DeAndre Hopkins, we really need 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:14.120 a receiver. Why did you trade this guy? After an 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:16.120 Elliott thirty six yard field goal made it twenty four 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:19.480 to seventeen, Philly, Washington goes seventy five yards. Robinson in 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:21.640 from fifteen. We are tied at twenty four eight to 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:24.160 one left. Teams trade punts. Eagles take over with three 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:26.480 twenty left at their own forty three second and fourth. 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:28.839 The Washington twenty eight hurts to Brown on the double move, 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:32.840 touchdown thirty one to twenty four. Iggles, but a taunting 0:09:32.920 --> 0:09:35.120 call on Brown because it wasn't enough for him to score, 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:37.720 he had to taunt. It was kind of weak tonk call, though, 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:40.080 Skins take the penalty. On the kickoffs. They started their 0:09:40.080 --> 0:09:43.240 own thirty six with one thirty six left. Washington matriculates 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:46.360 after a third and seventeen conversion a fourth and two 0:09:46.360 --> 0:09:49.920 at the Philly forty five with forty one seconds left, 0:09:49.960 --> 0:09:53.199 Howel to Diami Brown for sixteen, then McLaurin for eight, 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:55.440 McLaurin for eleven. They end up with a ball at 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:58.200 the Eagles ten with five seconds left incomplete to McLaurin, 0:09:58.360 --> 0:10:00.880 but one second left on the clock that Sean Dotson 0:10:01.160 --> 0:10:06.000 touchdown river boat ron Mike tuchas he decides to kick 0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:07.920 the extra point. Later he would say he thought his 0:10:08.000 --> 0:10:13.120 offense was gassed. Oh okay, Sam Howell, Welcome to the NFL. 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:16.320 This way to go, Sam Howell, By the way that 0:10:16.440 --> 0:10:18.440 was his welcome to the NFL moment. So we go 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:21.079 to overtime. Washington wins the coin flip third and five 0:10:21.120 --> 0:10:22.880 at their own thirty nine, twenty two left in overtime. 0:10:22.920 --> 0:10:25.840 Howel to McLaurin for twenty five rule to incomplete on 0:10:25.880 --> 0:10:30.000 the field, ridiculous replay showed green between his second foot 0:10:30.000 --> 0:10:33.880 and the sideline. Did it not? Did it not? But 0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:38.480 they were brutal, just absolutely brutal call there, twenty nine 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:41.000 yard tresswaypunt. You know what happens next fourth and one 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:43.800 at the at midfield. Took this push successful and then 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:46.040 after an intentional grounding call and hurts the temporarily put 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:48.120 the Eagles out of field goal range. Hurts the DeVante 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:51.160 for nine Elliott field goal fifty four. Eagles win thirty 0:10:51.160 --> 0:10:53.680 four to thirty one. Howell finishes twenty nine to forty 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:55.679 one for two to ninety one touchdown, no picks, but 0:10:55.720 --> 0:10:58.440 he was sacked five times. McLaurin the incomparable eight for 0:10:58.480 --> 0:11:01.600 eighty six should have been more. I will say Washington 0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:04.679 by four and a half on Thursday night hosting the. 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.760 Bears commanders six and a half. 0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:10.120 That's a lot. 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:10.920 That's a lot. 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:12.600 That's a lot of points. 0:11:12.800 --> 0:11:14.880 I feel like I'm glad this is a Thursday night game, 0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:17.440 so I could just stay away. Even six this morning, 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:19.920 we're up to six and a half on the Commanders. 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:22.000 I'm glad there's a Thursday night games. I think I'm 0:11:22.040 --> 0:11:23.920 just gonna stay away. But this is this line is 0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:25.760 getting close to begging me to bet the Bears. 0:11:25.760 --> 0:11:27.240 Well that's what I'm saying. You would think this would 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:29.640 make me run and bet the Bears, but I can't 0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:29.959 do that. 0:11:30.000 --> 0:11:33.520 What if it hits seven? 0:11:33.400 --> 0:11:41.760 I mean the Bears are The Bears are terrible? How 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:44.120 can you lose that game? But Washington shouldn't lay that 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:47.240 many points against anybody. We'll come back Sunday. I think 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:49.680 we have another Jackson to London game. We'll start there. 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:52.640 It's a numbers game at Visa these sports betting network. 0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:58.000 It's Kill Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from Park Bar, Canada, 0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:00.520 rather at the D I said Park Canada, Sorry, brother, 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:03.000 Bark Canada at the D here downtown. Can you tell 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:04.959 everybody what you just said off air? When you looked 0:12:05.040 --> 0:12:06.280 up at the TV screen, What did you say? 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:09.360 Give dan Orlowski four years and he's gonna look just. 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:16.200 Like you stole my glasses. He looks exactly like my brother. 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.319 By the way, exactly before we gets the more lines. 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:21.360 Just getting back to that last winless team, which is 0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:25.280 Chicago and four Carolina, Oh and four, I'm kind of. 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:27.959 Worried about your bet now, I'm not like that. That 0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:31.760 language is very, very important. I hadn't really thought about 0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:32.160 that before. 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:34.240 Well, let's say, let's say the Bears lose to Washington 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:37.559 and Caroline ends up losing at Detroit this week. I 0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:40.360 have their schedules here the next five weeks. Chicago's at 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:45.319 Washington home Minnesota home Raiders. They might be able to 0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:48.880 win one of those two, whereas Carolina goes at Detroit 0:12:48.960 --> 0:12:51.800 at Miami by which is a free Bengal square anyway, 0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:54.000 which is part of that handicap. Anyway, when I first 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:56.040 made it, we spelled it out all here on the air. 0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:58.560 I spelled out the Carolina bet. I spelled out the 0:12:58.600 --> 0:13:01.839 Everfluce bet. We'll see if either or both can get home. 0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:04.160 Keep this in mind, though, about both Chicago and Carolina. 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:07.280 Both ow and four the Bears own both draft picks. 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:10.600 The Bears own both draft picks because of the Bryce 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:12.840 Young trade, so currently if the NFL Draft were to 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:15.560 happen right now, Chicago would be drafting one and two. 0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:20.280 It's amazing. It's amazing, all right, one and every Bears 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:22.199 fan after I said that just went and how are 0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:23.120 we gonna botch that? 0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:26.640 It is the one thing I'd keep trying to argue for, 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:29.240 like or make the case for Bears fans. Right, it's 0:13:29.280 --> 0:13:32.600 the You go and compare the Broncos and Bears season A. 0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:35.400 What were the expectations for each team heading into the year? 0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:37.800 Much higher for a Broncos team than they were for 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:40.480 the Bears team. And when you head into this offseason, 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:44.200 the assets available for Chicago versus at Denver, it's not 0:13:44.240 --> 0:13:45.600 even close well that the Bears. 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:49.160 The Bears did have lower expectations, But let us not 0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:53.480 diminish that too much, because anecdotally or just by evidence 0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:55.480 of all of our guests on this show and throughout 0:13:55.480 --> 0:13:58.600 the network this offseason, there were some people who thought 0:13:58.600 --> 0:13:59.600 the Bears were going to be great. 0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:01.760 Yeah great, very good playoff team. 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:03.000 Yeah yeah yeah. 0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:06.960 All right, let's go at London Jaguars staying there, moving hotels. 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:09.600 Bills will come in and take their hotel. Sunday, six 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:12.920 thirty am Pacific time, nine thirty am Eastern time. Jags 0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:14.960 at the Bills versus the Bills in time. 0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:17.200 And I believe this is the first ever back to 0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:18.920 back London for one team. 0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:19.760 Yeah, I believe so. 0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:23.920 Yeah. Jacksonville, which plays a London game every year, and 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:27.640 we'll play two here back to back. Jacksonville beats Atlanta 0:14:27.720 --> 0:14:31.000 in the London game yesterday. Not a whole bunch to 0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:33.040 say here. Fourth and one at the Atlanta thirty eight, 0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:35.360 a little more than halfway through the first quarter, Lawrence 0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:37.160 to Kirk for ten. Two plays later was Lawrence to 0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:39.680 Ridley from thirty out. Jacksonville took a seven to nothing lead. 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:42.560 They added to McManus fifty six yard field goal to 0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:45.360 make it ten to nothing Atlanta at that point. This 0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:47.040 is in the second quarter when it was ten to 0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:50.640 nothing Atlanta at that point. Kelly had one first down 0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:52.640 and then they had a drive that started at their 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:55.920 own thirteen. They did matriculate three first downs later, so 0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:58.640 three more, two more than they have the or three 0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:00.920 more than they have a whole pre part of the game. 0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:03.240 They have a first intent that Jacksonville forty five Ridder 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:06.160 picked by Darius Williams sixty one yards to the house 0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:09.560 seventeen to nothing Jacksonville, and at that point it was 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:12.200 kind of just the Jags cruising in the rest of 0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:12.640 the way. 0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:16.200 Yeah, it was JAG's better. I don't know if you 0:15:16.200 --> 0:15:18.520 had the same feeling, but it was. They were leaving 0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:19.960 points on the field for sure. 0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:23.160 Yeah. When I say cruise, I do mean like not 0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:26.600 the most comfortable cruise, but still a cruise ensuing dry 0:15:26.680 --> 0:15:28.880 By the way, first play first in ten at their 0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:32.240 own twenty five, ridder was picked again by Andre Cisco, 0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:35.200 but that didn't lead in anything because fourth and one 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:38.960 at the Atlanta seven. Remember this is what you're talking about, Kelly, 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:40.440 they left points on the board. They could have like 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:43.040 really put the nail in the coffin at this point, 0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:45.080 up seventeen to nothing already they had the ball at 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:47.480 Atlanta seven to fourth and one, Lawrence was sacked by 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:51.000 David Anyamana. Halftime remained seventeen to nothing. Then third quarter 0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:53.200 Atlanta did go seventy five yards to start the half, 0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:55.840 twenty four on the ground, all but twenty four on 0:15:55.880 --> 0:15:57.680 the ground. By the way, I should say Bijeon for 0:15:57.760 --> 0:16:00.560 thirty eight was the big run. Ridderd and London fifteen out, 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:02.720 it was seventeen to seven. Then after they traded punts, 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:05.640 McManus field goal up to the lead for Jacksonville to 0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:07.640 twenty to seven. That was from forty three and then 0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:10.280 Atlanta matriculated but fourth and three at the Jacksonville six 0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:13.360 six oh five left. This was when the game really ended. 0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:15.920 Ritter incomplete back of the end zone intended for London. 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:17.160 He only got one foot down. 0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:17.920 Uh. 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:19.880 And then Jacksonville added a field goal late they were 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:22.840 helped along by forty yard PI to make it twenty 0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:25.240 three to seven. That was the eventual final score. Oh yeah, 0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:27.760 one last insult ridder sacked by Josh Allen with one 0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:30.640 thirty three left. He fumbled Angelo Blackson recover. That was 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:32.800 the ballgame. Laurence ended up twenty three of thirty for 0:16:32.840 --> 0:16:34.880 two oh seven, one touchdown. No Pixy was sacked twice, 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:38.000 eight carries for forty two yards, and you know Jacksonville 0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:40.680 was plus three and turnovers that led the big one 0:16:40.720 --> 0:16:43.480 obviously the pick six and all of that. So I 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:45.040 just want to say, we'll get to it when we 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:49.000 get to Atlanta. But this overrating of Atlanta in the 0:16:49.040 --> 0:16:53.200 market every week is been the most successful thing in 0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:54.360 NFL betting this year. 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:56.240 Well, so far, we'll take it, right, you'll take it. 0:16:56.280 --> 0:16:58.560 I mean, I'm not gonna I'm not gonna go crazy. Yeah, 0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:00.800 we're four weeks into the season. Oh my god, is 0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:03.400 this team exactly who you and I thought they were? Yes? 0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:06.960 Right, And here's the deep dive analysis. Have you seen 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:10.280 their quarterback play football? That's it? So all you gotta 0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:11.840 know whoever. 0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:14.760 They play at Buffalo or at Buffalo against Buffalo ages. 0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:20.680 Technically Buffalo is the home team. Buffalo beats Miami beats 0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:23.639 some good forty eight to twenty opening drive that went 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:25.399 right downfield. Actually the first five drives of the game 0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:28.240 or another but touchdown drives, Buffalo with three of them, 0:17:28.280 --> 0:17:30.040 Miami with two is twenty one to fourteen. I'll just 0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:32.320 skip ahead to there because at that point there was 0:17:32.359 --> 0:17:35.399 finally a punt. Miami punted, Buffalo punted, Miami punted. Then 0:17:35.440 --> 0:17:38.560 the Bills go fifty nine yards most on an Allen 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:40.800 to digs fifty five yard touchdown catch and run, twenty 0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:43.720 eight to fourteen Buffalo. That was the first real more 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:46.000 than one score separation of the game. Two fifty two 0:17:46.080 --> 0:17:48.160 left in the second quarter. At that point, third play 0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:50.040 following drive, third and one at their own thirty four 0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:52.400 for the Dolphins, two twenty left in the half. Most 0:17:52.440 --> 0:17:57.240 are hit by Matt Mulano, fumbles Terrell Bernard recovers, leads 0:17:57.280 --> 0:17:59.720 to a Tyler Bass fifty three yard are thirty one 0:17:59.840 --> 0:18:05.000 fourteen Buffalo at the half. Remember that's after they went touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, 0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:08.640 touchdown to start the game, twenty one to fourteen Buffalo lead. 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:11.720 And then they started to build that lead. Second half 0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:13.800 opening drive, Miami does go seventy five yards two A 0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:16.600 to Barrios from eleven out, thirty one to twenty. Miami 0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:19.760