1 00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: Easterned on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,080 Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 2: Bitcoin it gets your attention, folks. It is down another 7 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,319 Speaker 2: one point eight percent today, eighty six thousand dollars. The 8 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:32,239 Speaker 2: high just you know a month, month and a half 9 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 2: ago is one hundred and twenty five thousand, so we 10 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:38,599 Speaker 2: got a north of a thirty percent drawdown in bigcoin. 11 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 2: It's a commodity to me. I don't know more sellers 12 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 2: and buyers. Let's chicka with Mike mcloughan. He covers this 13 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 2: stuff because he's a commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. 14 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:49,880 Speaker 3: Mike, you've seen. 15 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 2: Commodities trade up and down for decades. Here put this 16 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 2: bitcoin moving context for us. 17 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 4: Well, Paul, I like the way you started. It's a 18 00:00:57,520 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 4: commodity to you, and I used to think that too. 19 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 5: Now to me actually less of a commodity because in 20 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 5: all commodities you have an underlying the basis, and you 21 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 5: have supply and demand fundamentals and Bitcoin there's millions of 22 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 5: competitors and there's no underlying to it, So I'm worried 23 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:13,279 Speaker 5: and doesn't have a practical value other than to trade 24 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 5: and hold value at least gold. 25 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:15,919 Speaker 4: This looks pretty and things. 26 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,319 Speaker 5: So I'm afraid what's happening in bitcoins are seeing that 27 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 5: overdue purge and those millions of cryptocurrencies that track nothing, 28 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:24,480 Speaker 5: it's pulling out Bitcoin. They're probably going to have to 29 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 5: head towards zero. And the key question is what do 30 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 5: we do for the end of the year. Can we 31 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 5: recover from these levels? And I think it's unlikely we do, 32 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 5: which means the whole system might be coming down into 33 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 5: maybe a grinch is going to win Christmas. 34 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 6: Wow, that's quite a call. Yeah, the whole system coming down. 35 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 7: I mean, for now people are saying that there's we're 36 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:46,039 Speaker 7: shaping up to be the worst November for bitcoin since 37 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 7: twenty twenty two, which was around the time that saying 38 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 7: Bankmin Freed and his company, you know, basically fell apart. 39 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 7: Talk a little bit about the Bitcoin ETFs and how 40 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 7: demand and inflows into those probus drove a lot of 41 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 7: the rally in spot baitcoin overall, and perhaps are removing 42 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 7: a big source of support right now. 43 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 5: Well, I'm glad you went there, Scarlett, because my primary 44 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 5: goal the last few years one Bloomberg we launched a 45 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 5: Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index. Idea was eventually for the whole 46 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 5: space to be tracked by widely by ETFs, including that index, 47 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 5: and once we got there, I figured and put in 48 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 5: a plateau. Now we've gotten there, and I think it's plateau. 49 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 5: So basically we've gone from the geeks and the insiders 50 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 5: who made a lot of money pushing it over to 51 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 5: retail and the big picture people want to catch up 52 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:33,919 Speaker 5: and chase the performance, and they're finding out it's poor 53 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 5: performance near a peak. 54 00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 4: They're piling on. 55 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 5: The biggest ETFs. Ever, it's classic peak bubble. So if 56 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 5: you want a bubble in all markets, it starts with cryptos. 57 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 5: Maybe not equities, but it's as bad as it was 58 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 5: for dot com bubble in nineteen ninety nine. 59 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 4: Now the whole thing's going back downward, and by the 60 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 4: end of the year should it recover. 61 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 5: I look at it as we need to just purge 62 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 5: millions of these things that track nothing, that are worth 63 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 5: billions of dollars. One good example is number nine on 64 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:02,919 Speaker 5: the Bitcoin cryp pages. Dosee coin, it's worth twenty one 65 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 5: billion dollars, attracts nothing. 66 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 4: It was launch as a joke. 67 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 8: Wow. 68 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 2: So we had Eric baoutchunasan just earlier and he said 69 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 2: most of the ETF buyers are still in it. They 70 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 2: haven't sold about five or six percent of sold or 71 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:17,240 Speaker 2: seen outflows. 72 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 3: Out of the ETF. 73 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 2: So the ETF flows are kind of hanging in there 74 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 2: at this point. 75 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 3: So off to see, do we. 76 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 6: Know who is selling? 77 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:27,680 Speaker 5: Mike, Yeah, well, certainly some of the OG's people have 78 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:29,799 Speaker 5: been along in for a long time. Once they heard 79 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 5: that Trump was so involved, they wanted to get out. 80 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 5: But Eric has on been on top of this. He 81 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 5: nailed it very beginning with the launching the ETF. The 82 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 5: problem is, I hear the average price for all ETFs, 83 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 5: and since they've been launched for bitcoins around eighty nine thousand, 84 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 5: we're below that. 85 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 4: So we're getting below there. 86 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 5: And also they've got double the vow till they what 87 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 5: they left they left the stock market, they get better. 88 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 4: Performance, they're getting worse. This is classic peak stuff. Paul. 89 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 5: I'm worried that it's just gonna I'm worried about that 90 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 5: Grinch effecting to the end of the year when everybody expects, oh, 91 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 5: Santa Claus is gonna come, but Grinch takes all Grinch 92 00:03:58,880 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 5: shows up. 93 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 7: Okay, Mike, But the president and his family are very 94 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 7: much invested in bitcoin, in the crypto industry at large. 95 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 6: Is there not a Trump put here? 96 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 4: Well, that's the key thing. What are they going to 97 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 4: do to make a difference. 98 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 5: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve though that was floated last year didn't 99 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 5: work out. We have the President's sun coined for it 100 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 5: to go much higher, and the future we might have 101 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:21,360 Speaker 5: laws against those kind of things because there's a vested interest. 102 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 5: I don't know how it's going to work out, but 103 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 5: it was that Fostian bargain. I'm worried about that just 104 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 5: in bloting now. And the key question is what stops it? 105 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:29,359 Speaker 4: What are they going to do to make it change? 106 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 5: The bottom line is there's so many millions of these 107 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:35,279 Speaker 5: things that are just pine and sky speculative digital assets. 108 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 4: They just need to purge and then we'll go back. 109 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 5: And I'm afraid that means Bitcoin's first stop on this 110 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 5: move is really towards fifty thousand. It's got to really 111 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 5: end the year up on the year to show anything 112 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 5: other than that, I'm afraid fifty thousand to the next 113 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:50,280 Speaker 5: key level, which means Domino's tumble, and the questions what 114 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 5: can they do to make a difference, Maybe get the 115 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 5: Fed the ease, which means more inflation, which means they're 116 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:55,039 Speaker 5: not going to get elected. 117 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:59,359 Speaker 7: Right, Well, all of that, the macro headwinds are the 118 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 7: same as any other acid classic. 119 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 6: Yes, in many ways. 120 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 7: Mike mcgloan and Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategists joining us 121 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 7: on bitcoin. 122 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 3: Stay with us. 123 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:09,479 Speaker 6: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming. 124 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 3: Up after this. 125 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 126 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 127 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,920 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 128 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:27,479 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 129 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 2: Let's talk to Sam Fazzelli because it's Monday, and that's 130 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 2: what we do. We talk healthcare, and you want to 131 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 2: talk healthcare. Talk to Sam Fazzelli. He's over there in London. 132 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 2: I think I haven't checked at these badge I mean, 133 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 2: who the heck knows what these people over there in London. 134 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:42,600 Speaker 2: But he's the best there is out there folks on 135 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 2: global healthcare and we appreciate getting a few minutes of 136 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 2: his time. Sim this obesity story is become the story 137 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 2: for your world. I mean, it's almost like forget about 138 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 2: some of these other issues you guys have been dealing with, 139 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 2: what you know, other diseases and therapeutics and so on. 140 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 2: It's all about obesie drugs. Talks about Novo Nordis start 141 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 2: taking on engineer. 142 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 9: Yeah, hi Paul, and just for the actuality, I'm in 143 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 9: France at the minute, see told, but only another twelve 144 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:17,160 Speaker 9: hours now. Today's news from NOMA. Notice is not about OBCD. 145 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 9: It's about a drug semaglutide in a pill form that 146 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 9: they've tested in Alzheimer's disease. And the theory was, and 147 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 9: there was some evidence that people who were taking the 148 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 9: very first version of the GLP one brug so victosa 149 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 9: or liro glue tide, they had a lower risk of 150 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 9: developing Alzheimer's when you looked at historic or rect prospective 151 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 9: data and there's animal models, et cetera. So they thought, 152 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:47,279 Speaker 9: but it's worth a trial and it didn't work out. 153 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:51,280 Speaker 9: They said that they're seeing some impacts in some biomarkers 154 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 9: et cetera. And we'll find out next week what biomarkers. 155 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 9: But the trial didn't work out. And the question here 156 00:06:58,240 --> 00:06:59,720 Speaker 9: is was the theory wrong? 157 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 8: Oh? 158 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 9: Is the drug not good enough? Is it pill enough? 159 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 9: We know the pill doesn't do as well in obesity 160 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 9: as the injection. Should they have tested the injection? 161 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 6: That's a good question. 162 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 7: And you mentioned that the ingredient here that we're paying 163 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 7: attention to is some maglitude, which I hope I'm pronouncing 164 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 7: correctly there. Does that mean that this ingredient and Alzheimer's 165 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 7: are just a no go from here on out? Or 166 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 7: does there need to be more testing before we can 167 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 7: determine that? 168 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 9: Yeah, there needs to be more testing, But who's going 169 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 9: to do that? I mean, having failed, now, who's going 170 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 9: to put the money into test it? 171 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 8: Now? 172 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 9: Lily does have an Alzheimer's business in a completely different 173 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 9: with different set of drugs, and they have a more 174 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:45,320 Speaker 9: punchy product once weekly with a relatively easily administered pen. 175 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 9: That would be interested to see whether that. 176 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 10: Helps and you know, so that you get more much 177 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 10: more drug in the body, or maybe redesign it a bit. 178 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 10: So it really does depend on how much appetite for 179 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:00,200 Speaker 10: risk these companies have and literally now with the just 180 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 10: literally just over trillion dollar market cap, maybe they should 181 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 10: give it a go. You know, it would be magic 182 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 10: if this thing, It literally would be magic if this thing. 183 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 9: Just helped so many different diseases. 184 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 2: Same talk to us about just the market for dementia. 185 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 2: Alzheimer's is one one part of it. I would think 186 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 2: that's a it's a big market and be it. It's 187 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 2: got to be a growing market with people living longer. 188 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 2: How do you guys think about it and how do 189 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 2: you play it? 190 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 11: If you're an investor, Yeah, it's it's It is a 191 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 11: significant societal issue number one. And you know, I think 192 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 11: there are many, not many families who would say that 193 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 11: they haven't experienced it. They have all the people in 194 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 11: their in their extended family. So the market has humongous potential. 195 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 11: But you need drugs that actually treat the disease. Remember, 196 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 11: by the time you have Alzheimer's, I. 197 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,439 Speaker 9: Eat a full blown dementia of the Alzheimer's type or 198 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 9: other types. It's a bit late. That means that a 199 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 9: lot that's already happened. So you need to go early, 200 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 9: and early it means long, expensive trials and Lily is 201 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 9: doing that with their assets, So fingers crossed, we'll find 202 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 9: out in the next two or three years where they're 203 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 9: going early with these assets. Rush is doing it too. 204 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:14,480 Speaker 9: It would be a beneficial. 205 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,560 Speaker 7: Right, I mean, the test with the pill form of 206 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 7: ozambic was definitely a lottery ticket. If it worked, great, 207 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 7: If not, we're back to the drawing board. Are there 208 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 7: any effective treatments right now against dementia or Alzheimer's? 209 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 9: Well, by effective, I mean it's tough to say, but 210 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:33,440 Speaker 9: there are drugs that lower this thing that is viewed 211 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:38,079 Speaker 9: as a critical part of the Alzheimer's disease, which amyloid 212 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 9: plaques in your brain. If they do lower it. Lily's 213 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 9: got that drug, Biogen's got an equivalent drug. Rushi is 214 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 9: trying a similar approach. And you do slow down the degeneration. 215 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 9: You don't stop it, you slow it down. So what 216 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 9: we really want is to stop people getting to that degeneration. 217 00:09:56,520 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 9: Try and get them before they have full grown Alzheimer's 218 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 9: or dementia, so that's called mild cognitive impairment. Try and 219 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 9: slow that down to give them another ten, twelve, twenty 220 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 9: years of dignified life. 221 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 2: So where do you think we are on a time 222 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 2: frame for something like that same is that measured in 223 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 2: a couple of years or more than that. 224 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:23,839 Speaker 9: Well, so Lily is literally trying that and we'll find 225 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 9: out whether and they have the better rug in this space, 226 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 9: so we'll find out whether in the next two or 227 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 9: three years. They remember, these things are trials that need 228 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:37,679 Speaker 9: to be run until you start seeing a difference. They 229 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 9: get that to that point, and of course then society 230 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:42,600 Speaker 9: has to decide, well, how were we going to pay for this? 231 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:46,720 Speaker 9: How many people? Because there's a large market, right, how 232 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 9: many people are we going to want to treat with 233 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:51,959 Speaker 9: the prices of these drugs whatever they are, even if 234 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,720 Speaker 9: it's ten thousand dollars a year, right, and they are 235 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:57,319 Speaker 9: on their way to becoming worse, and we want to 236 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 9: slow that down. You have ten million people. This could 237 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:04,680 Speaker 9: be similar in terms of value to the obesity market, 238 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 9: but you need the drug to do that. So let's 239 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 9: let's wait and see. And RASH has got a new 240 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 9: way of trying to do it, and they're going to 241 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 9: go again and also to phase three to test that out. 242 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 2: All right, Sam, thanks so much for joining us. Always 243 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 2: appreciate getting a few minutes of your time. Sam Pazzelli, 244 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:21,640 Speaker 2: director of Research for Global Industry and senior pharmaceuticals analysts 245 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:22,680 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence. 246 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:26,079 Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 247 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:34,079 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us Live 248 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Coarplay and Android 249 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:40,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 250 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 251 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 3: Scarlett. 252 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 2: One of the I think the questions we get, or 253 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 2: maybe discussion points we have over the last month or 254 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 2: so month and a half has been is this a bubble? 255 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 2: Is this an AI bubble? And I don't know, but 256 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 2: I mean the people are spos after this fact, after 257 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:00,839 Speaker 2: the fact exactly right. So, but somebody wo's supposed to 258 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 2: talk about it like present tenses. Michael Casper, Senior US 259 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 2: Equity Strategies for Bloomberg Intelligence. So, Michael, I know you're 260 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 2: having these conversations with your clients here. What are you 261 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 2: saying bubble, no bubble as it relates to AI. 262 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 12: Yeah, I'm pretty much all the signposts for a bubble 263 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 12: that we have identified so far are pointing towards no bubble. Right, 264 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 12: So if you look at the valuation picture of say 265 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 12: the MAG seven. So the hottest stocks today versus the 266 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 12: hottest stocks in two thousand, we're talking they're trading out 267 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 12: about half the multiple, Microsoft, Cisco, in Telendell, the four Horsemen, 268 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 12: and the Internet bubble we're trading at back at the 269 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 12: top of two thousand, and in fact, the MAG seven's 270 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 12: multiple has come down since twenty twenty one, so they're 271 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 12: growing into their multiple. And you've obviously got a ton 272 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:45,360 Speaker 12: of fundamental support here. Earning's running well faster than normal 273 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:47,680 Speaker 12: at the end of these multi periods, so it's really 274 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 12: pointing towards no bubble at the moment. 275 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 7: Okay, that might be the case for the Mag seven, 276 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 7: for the companies at the heart of the whole AI revolution, 277 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 7: but what about the ones that are kind of on 278 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 7: the periphery, on the side, and the profitless tech companies 279 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 7: that we talk about that are getting wrapped up in everything. 280 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 12: Yeah, so it's actually interesting to bring up profitless tech. 281 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 12: My colleague and Bibredherty, she does thematics for us. She 282 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:10,720 Speaker 12: has a Thematics AI universe, and we've actually scanned that 283 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 12: entire universe. And we're talking large caps, small caps, microcaps, 284 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 12: there's three companies in there that are unprofitable in the 285 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 12: entire AI universe of you nearly fifty companies, So there's 286 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 12: really not a lot of unprofitability, especially within the core 287 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 12: AI themes. And and that's another just feather in the 288 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 12: cap for this not being a bubble. 289 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 2: How about the big tech companies using debt to fund 290 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:37,080 Speaker 2: a lot of Does that get raise the. 291 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:37,839 Speaker 3: Radar at all? 292 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 12: Yeah, so it's interesting that they might start dipping into 293 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 12: debt markets. 294 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 3: That was something that I. 295 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 12: Read this morning on the terminal actually, but so far, 296 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,680 Speaker 12: if you look at leverage ratios, right, so total debt 297 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 12: to market cap or total debt to EBITDA, those are 298 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 12: actually significantly lower than where they were in two thousand, 299 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:59,720 Speaker 12: and we've frankly been delevering pretty consistently throughout the post 300 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:03,319 Speaker 12: grade financial crisis period. So leverage is actually below norms 301 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 12: for the s and P five hundred for the Russell 302 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:07,960 Speaker 12: two thousands, it's pretty much closer to norms. So I'm 303 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 12: not that worried about debt financing yet, right, So there's 304 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 12: plenty of room for companies to take on debt here. 305 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 6: Why are investors still so worried them? Why Are they 306 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 6: convinced that this is not sustainable? 307 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a bit of a paranoia. 308 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 8: Right. 309 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 12: We've gone up very far, very fast, and we did 310 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 12: look out at some previous melt ups, So we're talking 311 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 12: in the end of the Great the lead up to 312 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:33,280 Speaker 12: the Great Depression cycle, the Internet bubble, those are the 313 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 12: classic melt ups. Our returns have been pretty fast, but 314 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 12: they're still falling well short of that. 315 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 3: So I think. 316 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 12: Investors are a little bit worried that the returns have 317 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 12: been so violent and so quick, and that's adding to 318 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 12: a little bit of worry. And of course worry is 319 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 12: a good thing, right, So bubbles usually happen when nobody's 320 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 12: worried about them. I like to think about two thousand 321 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 12: and people always talk about, Yeah, my taxi driver was 322 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 12: telling me about some Internet stock. We're just really not 323 00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:58,520 Speaker 12: having that right now. There's still plenty of worry in 324 00:14:58,560 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 12: the system, and that's a good thing. 325 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 2: Orble market earnings pretty much done with the third quarter here, 326 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 2: Are they enough to support this marketplace? 327 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 8: Do you think? 328 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 3: Yeah? I think earnings were phenomenal. 329 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 9: Right. 330 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 12: There were some obviously bumps in the road on a 331 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:15,000 Speaker 12: company by company basis, but again we pretty much doubled 332 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 12: the pace of what consensus expectations were. If you look 333 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 12: at twenty twenty six expectations, those are holding pretty firm. 334 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 12: We're looking at about thirteen percent earnings growth for the 335 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 12: year ahead, again comparing that to previous bubbles. Even that's 336 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 12: significantly higher than what we saw at the end. You know, 337 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 12: bubbles are driven by FOMO, not fundamentals, And certainly consensus 338 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 12: expectations are strong, and they're actually even strengthening in the 339 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 12: Russell two thousand, which has been an unloved group for 340 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 12: quite some time. So things on the fundamental side looking 341 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 12: pretty decent here. 342 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 6: What about on the technical side. 343 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 7: I keep reading about how the S and P five 344 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 7: hundred is still below it's fifty day moving average, it's 345 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 7: short term trend line, and it briefly fell below the 346 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 7: one hundred day moving average on Thursday. 347 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:55,840 Speaker 6: And because we are not going to get. 348 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 7: Any fundamental data on the economy until after the FMC 349 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 7: just earning season is over, there aren't a whole lot 350 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 7: of catalysts from here on out until maybe next year. 351 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 12: Yeah, So one catalyst I'm looking at pretty intently is 352 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 12: going to be the holiday spend. Right, Like if that 353 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 12: comes in a little bit better than we expect. That 354 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 12: could be another catalyst for stocks. But certainly you mentioned 355 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 12: the FOMC decision. I think a lot of this pullback 356 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 12: has to do with Powells hawkish comments about two weeks ago. 357 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 12: You know, people just expecting a little more on the 358 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 12: rate cut side than what we're. 359 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 8: Going to get. 360 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 3: And again, this just looks like a textbook pullback. 361 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 12: Right We're down what maybe four or five percent from 362 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 12: all time highs on the S and P five hundred 363 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 12: on the rustle. It's approaching correction territory, but still nothing 364 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 12: really going as far as a bubble bursting. 365 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 7: Are you looking at bitcoin and crypto at all insofar 366 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 7: as whether it's influencing equities or whether equities are influencing bitcoin, 367 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 7: because there's a lot of talk about the linkage between 368 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:55,200 Speaker 7: tech stocks and bitcoin. 369 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 12: Yeah, I think bitcoin is a good gauge of risk tolerance. 370 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 12: I don't know about necessarily a fun mental linkage between 371 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 12: bitcoin and stocks outside of. 372 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 3: Maybe you know the AI names those leading the corners. 373 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 12: I think, you know, stocks are the dog that wags 374 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 12: the tail, right, and crypto is the tail here. 375 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 3: But I think crypto is really kind of showing. 376 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 12: Where the concerns lie in the equity markets and the 377 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 12: risk is in the equity markets. And again that seems 378 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:21,680 Speaker 12: to be more with the Fed. What is the Fed 379 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 12: going to do? Obviously Fed raycuts would be good for bitcoin. 380 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 12: Everybody thinks it's it's pretty stable. So I think that's 381 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:31,400 Speaker 12: really showing where the pressure points are for stocks. 382 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 2: All right, Mike, appreciate it as always. Michael Casper, Bloomberg 383 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 2: Intelligence Senior US equity research strategist, giving us lots on 384 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 2: these markets. Here, Ai bubble, you know something, so we'll 385 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,160 Speaker 2: keep an eye on the market. Is certainly trading higher 386 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 2: today with the S and pup one point four percent, 387 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 2: in the NASDAK up two point three percent. 388 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 389 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:59,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 390 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: he's at ten am. He'sterned on Apple Coarcklay and Android 391 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 392 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 393 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 2: All right, let's go switch gears a little bit. 394 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 3: President Trump. 395 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 2: When he came into office, he was wildly considered to 396 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 2: be a deregulatory president. Will allow a lot of industries 397 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:23,919 Speaker 2: maybe to consolidate. One of those industries is the broadcasting industry, 398 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 2: the radio and TV business. But he was out with 399 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 2: a tweet recently saying he maybe doesn't support that anymore, 400 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 2: and that was a big u turn for a lot 401 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 2: of people, particularly in the television industry. So we want 402 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 2: to go to the expert, Matthew Shettenhelm. He is the 403 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:40,840 Speaker 2: media litigation analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. 404 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:42,399 Speaker 3: He's one of the best on the street folks. But 405 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 3: his credibility with me took a. 406 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:46,120 Speaker 2: Big, big hit when I found out he does not 407 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:49,400 Speaker 2: carry cash, and for an old banker like me, who's 408 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,119 Speaker 2: got a wat of cash in his pocket all the time, 409 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:52,000 Speaker 2: that was a problem. 410 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 6: But we're still credit cards and therefore he's. 411 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,400 Speaker 2: Actually just the younger generation Daniel Cash. They just don't 412 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,359 Speaker 2: do the cash thing. He Matt, how much of a 413 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 2: surprise was that President Trump tweets out that maybe he's 414 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 2: not behind consolidation in the TV industry. 415 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 13: You're never going to let me, let me live that 416 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:13,120 Speaker 13: one downfall. But so it's a moderate surprise. So it's 417 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:19,439 Speaker 13: not a complete surprise because Newsmax has participated before the 418 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 13: FCC and has been one of the few voices that said, 419 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:27,840 Speaker 13: don't do this, don't deregulate this space. And what you 420 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,919 Speaker 13: really see here is President Trump latching on to an 421 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:35,719 Speaker 13: article written on Newsmax's platform opposing the easing of this 422 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 13: national ownership cap. What's in play here is that there's 423 00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:45,199 Speaker 13: current FCC regulation says no company can reach more than 424 00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 13: thirty nine percent of US households, and companies like Nextstar 425 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 13: and Sinclair want to go way beyond thirty nine percent. 426 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:57,360 Speaker 13: In fact, Nextstar has a pending deal before the FCC. 427 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:00,440 Speaker 13: They just filed their application on Thursday or Friday last 428 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:04,680 Speaker 13: week to acquire Tegna that would take them to seventy 429 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 13: eighty percent of the country, and it depends on the FCC. 430 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 8: Deregulating in this space. 431 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:16,359 Speaker 13: So Trump latching on to Newsmax's opposition because he's concerned 432 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 13: about the TV networks growing larger is a concern. 433 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:21,880 Speaker 8: It's a real risk. 434 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 13: I'm not convinced yet that it's going to lead to 435 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,760 Speaker 13: real FCC policy. I think this FCC wants to deregulate 436 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:29,960 Speaker 13: in this space, and I think there's going to be 437 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 13: a pushback against Trump's view on this. 438 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,399 Speaker 7: Okay, So the FCC is headed by Brendan Carr, who's 439 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 7: been very active in making sure that he's out there 440 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,920 Speaker 7: doing the president's bidding. Are you saying that Brendan Carr 441 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:43,439 Speaker 7: is going to defy President Trump? 442 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 13: Yeah, so that's the big question here. The FCC used 443 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,159 Speaker 13: to operate as an independent agency, meaning even if the 444 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,440 Speaker 13: President had a view on something, the FCC could chart 445 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 13: its own course. That doesn't that's not going to work 446 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:02,200 Speaker 13: anymore the way this FC is operating. If the President 447 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:06,280 Speaker 13: takes a firm view on something, the FCC is not 448 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 13: going to defy it because effectively, the President can fire 449 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:13,199 Speaker 13: the FCC chairman then and you know, there's no no 450 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 13: future job prospect if you defy the president. What I'm 451 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:19,920 Speaker 13: not convinced about is, you know, this was one social 452 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:23,879 Speaker 13: media post from President Trump, and you know, talking about 453 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:28,880 Speaker 13: concerns about letting the broadcast networks ABC, CBS, Fox get bigger. 454 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 8: What I think there could be. 455 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 13: Now in in you know, on in back channels, is 456 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 13: some education from the FCC to the White House that says, hey, 457 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 13: easing the national ownership cap it would let Sinclair Next 458 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 13: Star get bigger, probably, but it doesn't necessarily mean the 459 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,320 Speaker 13: broadcast networks will get bigger. There's still an independent check 460 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:49,639 Speaker 13: on that even if we we ease this this cap. 461 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 13: So ultimately, if Trump is against this, the FCC is 462 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,159 Speaker 13: not going ahead with it in my view. But I 463 00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:59,360 Speaker 13: think there's still room for for Trump's position to evolve 464 00:21:59,400 --> 00:21:59,639 Speaker 13: on this. 465 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,920 Speaker 2: So, I mean, the reality is, I mean, this is 466 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 2: an industry, the broadcast television industry that is arguably on 467 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,480 Speaker 2: life support vis a VI forget about cable television, which 468 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 2: itself is on life support. They survive that on slot. 469 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 2: Now it's just all about digital and social media. And 470 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 2: I would think the industry would have an open would 471 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:21,959 Speaker 2: have an effective argument, not just to the DOJ, but 472 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:22,920 Speaker 2: to the president as well. 473 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 8: Absolutely. 474 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 13: I mean that's the case that the National Association of 475 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 13: Broadcasters has made to the FCC that these ownership restrictions, 476 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,440 Speaker 13: you know, which come from the nineteen seventies or even 477 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:37,600 Speaker 13: earlier than that, really make no sense in the world 478 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 13: we live in today, where so much video that is 479 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:45,480 Speaker 13: consumed doesn't come from from broadcast. It comes over the Internet, 480 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:50,359 Speaker 13: and there are no artificial caps on how much those 481 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:54,639 Speaker 13: companies can reach, and broadcasters are left to try to 482 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 13: fight with one hand tied behind their back with these 483 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 13: these you know, ancient FCC rules on the books, and 484 00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:06,240 Speaker 13: the Republicans at the FCC, Brendan Carr included, strongly agree 485 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:07,359 Speaker 13: with that message. 486 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:09,960 Speaker 8: And so it's going. 487 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 13: To be I think a little bit of a communication 488 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 13: effort that needs to happen between the FCC and the 489 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 13: White House too, And the real question will be how 490 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,960 Speaker 13: does that play out. Does Trump's social media post actually 491 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:23,440 Speaker 13: translate to real policy. 492 00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 8: I'm not convinced that it will yet. 493 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:28,119 Speaker 3: All Right, Matt, appreciate it as always. 494 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,480 Speaker 2: Met Chetninghelm, He's a media litigation analyst Bloomberg Intelligency space 495 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:32,200 Speaker 2: down there in DC. 496 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:37,919 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 497 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 498 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:45,360 Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 499 00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 500 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,360 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 501 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal