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Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. Have an amazing
Speaker 1: show for everybody. Today's Pacshow. What do we have great, Yes,
Speaker 1: we do.
Speaker 2: We got a bunch of guests and we got a
Speaker 2: lot of big news. So we're going to start the
Speaker 2: show with a full breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire deal,
Speaker 2: how it came to be, the different phases, some of
Speaker 2: the remaining question marks. We've got two different guests to
Speaker 2: give us analysis on that. Doctor true Tu Parsi and
Speaker 2: Shila van Ephraim. We've had him on before. He's like
Speaker 2: a liberal Zionist who has a great view of the
Speaker 2: Israeli domestic political situation, which is becoming increasingly relevant as
Speaker 2: Netnyahoo is sort of I guess pumping the brakes on
Speaker 2: the deal.
Speaker 3: Anyway, we'll get into all of the details there.
Speaker 2: We're also going to break down for you the confirmation
Speaker 2: hearings that happened yesterday. We got Lil Marco all grown
Speaker 2: up and facing not very contentious hearings. Actually he's you know,
Speaker 2: he's a senator. He's got respectability, so even though he's
Speaker 2: a warhawk, they I'll like him in there. You also
Speaker 2: had Pampondi, who of course is Trump's nominee for Attorney General.
Speaker 3: So we'll take a look at that.
Speaker 2: Vivek has emerged sort of Trump is pushing for him
Speaker 2: to be in the mix for that Ohio Senate seat
Speaker 2: that is being vacated by Jadie. Vance will break that
Speaker 2: down for you. Take a look at John Stewart ripping
Speaker 2: Republicans over their desire to withhold aid to California, or
Speaker 2: at least to put a bunch of stipulations to that
Speaker 2: aid to California and to la as they struggle continue
Speaker 2: to struggle with those horrific wildfires. Mister Beast might buy TikTok,
Speaker 2: the latest TikTok. I mean, I don't know that that's
Speaker 2: all that likely, but we wanted to cover TikTok again
Speaker 2: because the band is said to go into effect on.
Speaker 1: What Sunday, Sunday, January nineteenth, So you know.
Speaker 2: This is happening absent some significant development. So we'll give
Speaker 2: you the latest on that and a little bit of
Speaker 2: breaking news here. Fashakir, who is now the head of
Speaker 2: More Perfect Union but previously ran Bernie Sanders' twenty twenty
Speaker 2: presidential campaign. He has just jumped into the race for
Speaker 2: DNC chair and he's going to join me here live.
Speaker 3: A little bit of an exclusive. He just announced yesterday.
Speaker 2: I don't know if he's done any other interviews yet, Okay,
Speaker 2: so maybe the first. So I got a lot of
Speaker 2: questions for him. Be really interesting to hear what his
Speaker 2: vision for the Democratic Party is. Before we get to
Speaker 2: any of that, though, we have some big plans for
Speaker 2: the inauguration coverage next ye.
Speaker 1: Yes, that's right. Make sure you guys are tuning in.
Speaker 1: We'll be streaming it here live on the channel. We'll
Speaker 1: give you our instant reaction to the inaugural address. Excited
Speaker 1: to see it. Already, Washington is a buzz. It's going
Speaker 1: to be a cold one for any of you who
Speaker 1: out there who are attending. Please check the weather. It's
Speaker 1: going to be somewhere in the teens with the wind chill.
Speaker 1: Oh it's yeah. It's going to be a brutal inauguration
Speaker 1: for the people who are attendant.
Speaker 3: Donald Trump to be out for that one.
Speaker 1: Please if you're doing that. I've attended several of these inaugurations.
Speaker 1: People are never prepared. They're from Florida or whatever, like, oh,
Speaker 1: it'll be you don't know what you're talking about, all right.
Speaker 1: Take it from a guy from the South. It's brutal
Speaker 1: up here, especially whenever there's windshill. This might be snow
Speaker 1: the next day and all of that. So please stay
Speaker 1: safe out there and make sure they can make all
Speaker 1: of that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's one thing when you're moving around that outside
Speaker 2: and it's cold, but at inauguration you're gonna have to
Speaker 2: like walk to where you're going to stand and then
Speaker 2: you're just gonna stand there.
Speaker 1: You will walk for miles because the metro will be
Speaker 1: unusable and you will be standing in place like yards
Speaker 1: hundreds of yards away from the only porta Potti. So again,
Speaker 1: you need to make sure that you know what you're
Speaker 1: getting into. I hate to be a buzzkill, but I've
Speaker 1: seen too many.
Speaker 3: Didn't you look up the history of like the yes,
Speaker 3: I did.
Speaker 1: This might be the second coldest, might be third coldest
Speaker 1: inauguration on record. For what we we have Ronald Reagan's
Speaker 1: second inaugural nineteen eighty five. It was a minus four
Speaker 1: degrees that morning. They actually canceled the inaugural parade because
Speaker 1: it was just too damn cold. So wow. Anyways, we
Speaker 1: will have all of the coverage here Live that you
Speaker 1: can that you will need. Will cover the ceremony obviously,
Speaker 1: but I'm really interested to see what the actual inaugural
Speaker 1: address will be. I still think American Carnage is one
Speaker 1: of the most unique inaugurate inaugural addresses literally ever given
Speaker 1: in US history, just because of the tone. I mean,
Speaker 1: there's literally never been a president who has come in
Speaker 1: even FDR in the middle of the Great Depression, gives
Speaker 1: us optimistic speech. Trump chooses the opposite. I think fundamentally
Speaker 1: that was actually a political genius point and it's one
Speaker 1: that he has used now to come back and assume
Speaker 1: the Oval office. So anyway, giving away some of my commentary,
Speaker 1: but I think you guys are really going to enjoy
Speaker 1: our coverage. And then the next day on Tuesday, we'll
Speaker 1: do a live show as well, because we are expecting
Speaker 1: a flurry of executive orders and there's gonna be news
Speaker 1: coming in. It's gonna be it's gonna be real a really
Speaker 1: big week here for the show. So sign up up
Speaker 1: if you can Breaking Points dot Com, et cetera, and
Speaker 1: we will be live here no matter what.
Speaker 2: All right, let's get to some rare but excellent news
Speaker 2: that's right in the Middle East. A ceasefire deal has
Speaker 2: been achieved. There are a couple of question marks and caveats.
Speaker 2: We'll get to those in a moment, but let's start
Speaker 2: with the celebration and the streets of Gaza. I mean,
Speaker 2: these people, these Palestinians, have suffered, They've been in terror
Speaker 2: and by the way, Israel is continuing to bomb in
Speaker 2: the Gaza strip up until the moment when the deal
Speaker 2: is supposed to go into effect, so there's still plenty
Speaker 2: of carnish there going on. But we can go ahead
Speaker 2: and put these celebrations up on the screen. People are
Speaker 2: just a buliant that there might be some break in
Speaker 2: the horror that they have suffered for more than a year.
Speaker 2: At this point, I mean, you see these little children.
Speaker 2: This is a reporter for Al Jazeera who is reporting
Speaker 2: that the ceasefire deal has been achieved.
Speaker 3: He has a crowd around him.
Speaker 2: He's taking off his flat jacket there and then they actually,
Speaker 2: I think, like carry him off on their shoulders. People
Speaker 2: here parading through the street so happy. Part of the
Speaker 2: ceasefire deal is not only the you know, a cessation
Speaker 2: of the carnage and the bombing and the snipers, but
Speaker 2: also increased food aid. We know that resources have been
Speaker 2: just incredibly, incredibly scarce. More of the children of Gaza
Speaker 2: out in the street dancing, and you know, it's just
Speaker 2: it's so beautiful to see them so happy. Doctors in
Speaker 2: the hospital also celebrating. I cannot imagine what these people
Speaker 2: have seen, what horrific wounds they have treated, the number
Speaker 2: of dead they have had to carry out. Huge crowd
Speaker 2: celebrations here as well. Everybody recording and filming this moment
Speaker 2: when they feel that at least they're set to get
Speaker 2: a respite, and then this is some I don't know
Speaker 2: if it's Hamas or Palestinian Islamic ji Hud, but some
Speaker 2: fighters who are feeling comfortable to emerge here as this
Speaker 2: deals announced, which you know that was included very intentional because,
Speaker 2: as we've been saying from the beginning Saga, Israel was
Speaker 2: not able to wipe out Hamas.
Speaker 3: They In fact, Tony.
Speaker 2: Blinken just came out this week and said, actually, we
Speaker 2: estimate that they have recruited about as many fighters as
Speaker 2: they have lost. So you know, it's predictable from the
Speaker 2: beginning that accomplishing that objective, that maximalist objective from Israel,
Speaker 2: at least through military means, was going to be impossible.
Speaker 2: And yet we do have this ceasefire deal that has
Speaker 2: been achieved, you know, in large part because Donald Trump
Speaker 2: was willing to actually apply a little bit of pressure
Speaker 2: to the Israelis into Benjamin Natyaho specifically, let's put this
Speaker 2: ceasefire agreement up on the screen so you can see
Speaker 2: these phases, and this is going to be relevant as
Speaker 2: we talk about how this might unfold and some of
Speaker 2: the question marks and caveats to this actual deal. But
Speaker 2: let me just read through the outline here. This is
Speaker 2: the draft. This, by the way, is the exact same
Speaker 2: deal that was crafted back in May under Joe Biden
Speaker 2: that Hamas agreed to and the Israelis backed away from.
Speaker 2: So we've had months of slaughter and carnage to achieve
Speaker 2: nothing other than additional horror.
Speaker 3: This was the original deal.
Speaker 2: So in any case, Phase one forty two days, Hamas
Speaker 2: is going to release thirty three hostages, including female civilians
Speaker 2: and soldiers, children and civilians over fifty. Israel is going
Speaker 2: to release thirty Palestinian prisoners. For every civilian hostage and
Speaker 2: fifty for each female soldier who's being held hostage.
Speaker 3: There'd be a cessation of fighting.
Speaker 2: Israeli forces will move out of populated areas but remain
Speaker 2: on the edges of the Gaza Strip. Displaced Palestinians will
Speaker 2: begin returning home, and more aid will begin entering into
Speaker 2: the strip. Okay, that's Phase one forty two days, and
Speaker 2: that is set to go into effect Sunday. If BB
Speaker 2: nine now, who doesn't blow up the deal, which we'll
Speaker 2: talk about in a moment. Phase two forty two days
Speaker 2: declaration of quote sustainable calm, Hamas freeze remaining a hostages,
Speaker 2: both soldiers and civilians in exchange for a yet to
Speaker 2: be negotiated number of Palestinian prisoners in a full with
Speaker 2: all of Israeli troops from.
Speaker 3: The Gaza Strip. Phase three.
Speaker 2: You have the bodies of deceased Israeli hostages, and we're
Speaker 2: not sure how many there are of those at this point,
Speaker 2: exchange for bodies of deceased Palestinian fighters. Implementation of a
Speaker 2: reconstruction plan in Gaza. Still very little details in terms
Speaker 2: of how that will work and who will govern in Gaza,
Speaker 2: and all of that is still major question mark. Border
Speaker 2: crossings for movement in and out of Gaza are reopened.
Speaker 2: I referenced before we can put this up on the screen,
Speaker 2: this tear sheet, and we talked about this a little bit,
Speaker 2: and Ryan and Emily talked about this a little bit
Speaker 2: as well. This is behind the scenes of how the
Speaker 2: deal went down. As I said, the contours of the
Speaker 2: steal have existed since May when Hamas agreed to it,
Speaker 2: and BB nine Yahoo and Besililsmochurch and Ben Gaver, who
Speaker 2: was out there bragging about how he tanked multiple potential
Speaker 2: ceasefire deals. They were the primary obstacles them and the
Speaker 2: fact that the Biden administration was never willing to apply
Speaker 2: any pressure whatsoever and actually are out now admitting that
Speaker 2: they never applied any pressure whatsoever, so they say in
Speaker 2: this article from the Times of Israel and the similar
Speaker 2: things have been reported in other outlets as well. A
Speaker 2: tense weekend meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and incoming
Speaker 2: Mideast Envoy Steve Whitcoff led to a breakthrough of the
Speaker 2: hostage negotiations, with the top a tous President elect Donald
Speaker 2: Trump doing more to sway the premiere in a single
Speaker 2: sit down than outgoing President.
Speaker 3: Joe Biden did all year.
Speaker 2: Two Arab officials told The Times of Israel on Tuesday,
Speaker 2: Witcoff has been in Doha for the past week to
Speaker 2: take part in those hostage negotiations as mediators try to
Speaker 2: secure a deal before Trump' January twentieth inauguration. On Saturday,
Speaker 2: Whitcoff flew to Israel for meeting with Biebe at the
Speaker 2: Premiere's Jerusalem office. During the meeting, Whitcoff urged Netnyahu to
Speaker 2: accept key compromises necessary for an agreement. The two Arab
Speaker 2: officials on Monday told The Times of Israel on condition
Speaker 2: of anonymity, so that is how it went down. And
Speaker 2: you know, the Biden people aren't really even disputing this.
Speaker 1: No, but there's a lot of consternation here there absolutely
Speaker 1: because they're so upset that Trump is getting credit for
Speaker 1: the deal. No honest analysis can say that they had
Speaker 1: anything to do with the completion of it. I keep
Speaker 1: thinking about this. So Brett McGirk and a lot of
Speaker 1: people who are watching the show, they may don't even
Speaker 1: know who he is. Brett McGirk has been involved in
Speaker 1: US Middle East policy since I was a small child.
Speaker 1: He has worked for every US president since George W. Bush.
Speaker 1: He was in Iraq and you worked for the poetry.
Speaker 2: Literal Eastern disaster that this country has gotten involved.
Speaker 1: He was working for the Coalitional Provisional Authority in three
Speaker 1: when I was in grade school. Has basically not left
Speaker 1: government service since living in Doha basically for the last
Speaker 1: two years trying to get a cease fire deal. Steve
Speaker 1: Whitkoff built the fon ten Blue casino in Las Vegas. Okay,
Speaker 1: just so we're talking about here, the guy who built
Speaker 1: the casino was able to close this deal in two months.
Speaker 1: And I'm like, okay, so, so either you know these
Speaker 1: foreign policy people are idiots, their bosses are you know,
Speaker 1: just have no experience. Maybe the myth of like people
Speaker 1: who have no experience in government are actually better at government.
Speaker 1: All of the above. I mean, obviously, I mean simplifying this,
Speaker 1: But how extraordinary is that?
Speaker 2: I mean, I think the obvious answer is they didn't
Speaker 2: want because if you did, it was achievable. And you know,
Speaker 2: people were mocked, like myself for saying like, no, if
Speaker 2: you want this to end, it will end, period. And
Speaker 2: you know, there were all these people on like, oh, you.
Speaker 4: Think he's just got a magical ceasefire button in the
Speaker 4: office or you could just pick up like yeah, actually
Speaker 4: I do, Yes, I do think that. I do think
Speaker 4: that if Joe Biden picked up the phone or one
Speaker 4: of his credible emissaries or its Tony Blinker or Jake
Speaker 4: Sullivan or whoever the hell picked up the phone and
Speaker 4: said we're done. It's over, we are not shipping any
Speaker 4: more weapons. You are going to wrap this up. You
Speaker 4: are going to accept this deal that Hamas has accepted
Speaker 4: and deal with the political fault.
Speaker 2: Yes, I do think it would have been over, and
Speaker 2: that has now been one hundred percent proven correct. Now
Speaker 2: in terms of some of the remaining question marks. Okay,
Speaker 2: number one, I think the most obvious thing is like
Speaker 2: what did what is Trump offering in exchange for this?
Speaker 2: And there's three things that people float. Number one is
Speaker 2: Saudi normalization. Number two is joining Israel in strike on Iran,
Speaker 2: which horrible, disastrous idea, terrible. Number three, which to me
Speaker 2: seems and it may be all of these, maybe some
Speaker 2: combination of these, whatever, maybe something else that we haven't
Speaker 2: even thought of. Number three, which was reported that Mary Maddison,
Speaker 2: his major major toner, wants him to allow annexation of
Speaker 2: the West Bank. There are already signs that Israel's ramping
Speaker 2: up drop sites, done great job reporting on increased incursions
Speaker 2: and brutality in.
Speaker 3: The West Bank.
Speaker 2: Obviously settlements have expanded there massively over actually in every
Speaker 2: single Israeli government, So that seems a very likely outcome
Speaker 2: as well. So that's question number one. Question number two
Speaker 2: is this morning reporting net Yahoo is now throwing sand
Speaker 2: in the gears, pumping the brakes once again claiming that
Speaker 2: Hamas is renegging on the agreement. I mean, listen, that's
Speaker 2: probably bullshit. Hamas is saying, no, we're not. They have
Speaker 2: agreed to this specific deal since May, so you know
Speaker 2: that they're backing out of it now. I highly highly doubt.
Speaker 2: This is one of the things that we'll talk to
Speaker 2: Shiel about today, which is, you know, the domestic situation
Speaker 2: because bb is seeing his coalition kind of collapse. You know,
Speaker 2: the right wing ben Kaver and Smotrich in particular very
Speaker 2: upset with this deal because it's it sort of reminds me,
Speaker 2: you know, not that they're totally analogous situation, but it
Speaker 2: sort of reminds me of when Biden pulls out of Afghanistan.
Speaker 2: Anytime you end a war, it's a mess and you
Speaker 2: have to reckon with the reality. You can no longer
Speaker 2: live in the fantasy of like, oh, we're going to
Speaker 2: completely defeat Hamas and it's going to be, you know,
Speaker 2: the end of any Palestinian resistance. When you actually end
Speaker 2: a war and have a cessation of hostilities, you have
Speaker 2: to grop with what the actual reality is and what
Speaker 2: you know in terms of their state of military goals. Yes,
Speaker 2: they inflicted untold suffering and carnage on the Palestinian population,
Speaker 2: but they did not achieve the political goals that they
Speaker 2: set out, So you have to grapple with that, and
Speaker 2: you know, the far far right in Israel does not
Speaker 2: want to grapple with that and wants to continue the
Speaker 2: brutality and the carnage basically and definitely, I mean, they're
Speaker 2: very upfront. One thing you have to give him as
Speaker 2: honesty that they want to completely resettle Gaza, completely push
Speaker 2: out the Palestinians who live there. So his government is
Speaker 2: kind of it's teetering, and so he's pumping the brakes
Speaker 2: and claiming that Hamas is renegging. So that's one thing
Speaker 2: to watch whether this thing actually moves forward, whether there's
Speaker 2: a delay, et cetera, et cetera. The other thing is
Speaker 2: that the people in the BBHO coalition, including Smotrich, are
Speaker 2: claiming that they have been promised that after that initial
Speaker 2: phase one where some number of hostages are released, and
Speaker 2: I think it's what lasts for like forty two days,
Speaker 2: that they have been promised, Israel will go back to fighting,
Speaker 2: will go back to the war.
Speaker 3: In which case this is not a ceasefire.
Speaker 2: It's that quote unquote humanitarian pause which we had so
Speaker 2: much discussion of early in the war. And troublingly, President
Speaker 2: Trump's incoming National Security advisor Mike Waltz also made similar
Speaker 2: signals that that may also be the way that they
Speaker 2: are thinking about this deal in a recent interview. Let's
Speaker 2: take a listen to his comments.
Speaker 5: From your perspective. If this deal goes through and we
Speaker 5: enter what's characterized as the first phase, does that effectively
Speaker 5: mean the war's over is Does a ceasefire mean that
Speaker 5: Israel's its work is done in Gaza for the foreseeable future.
Speaker 6: Well, I certainly think Hamas would like to believe that,
Speaker 6: but we've been clear that Gaza has to be fully demilitarized,
Speaker 6: Hamas has to be destroyed to the point that it
Speaker 6: cannot reconstitute, and that Israel has every right to fully
Speaker 6: protect itself. So you know, all of those pieces, all
Speaker 6: of those objectives are still very much in place. Look,
Speaker 6: I mean, the October seventh was a terrible day. They
Speaker 6: put everybody in a terrible position, including the Palestinian people
Speaker 6: of Gaza, whom they regularly hide behind and are willing
Speaker 6: to sacrifice and have sacrificed for their own sick ends
Speaker 6: and objectives. And so we need to get our people out,
Speaker 6: and then we need to achieve those objectives in this war.
Speaker 2: So he's asked there straight out, does this mean the
Speaker 2: end of the war, and he's basically like, no, we're
Speaker 2: going to quote unquote demilitarize Gaza, which is again the
Speaker 2: maximalist rhetoric that the Natanyahu government has been engaged.
Speaker 1: But let me give the caveat, which is he didn't say, yeah,
Speaker 1: we're going to allow them to go back in. I
Speaker 1: am skeptical of how all this is going to play out.
Speaker 1: I think the most likely scenario is the one that
Speaker 1: you're saying that the government of the BB nine now
Speaker 1: government will survive, that they will just simply have to
Speaker 1: go in after forty two days. All the caveats here
Speaker 1: already we have. It's this is of us pressure. The
Speaker 1: thing is that we understand about Trump is it's not
Speaker 1: just about the hostages. It's about chaos. He doesn't want
Speaker 1: to deal with a massive reignition of protest movement or
Speaker 1: of the you know, the seeming fall apart of his
Speaker 1: framework that he puts forward, all the rhetoric that they
Speaker 1: are using. Let's we've heard all this crap before, right,
Speaker 1: The Taliban will never govern in Afghanistan until, yeah, you
Speaker 1: got to cut some deals with the Taliban. I'll be like, oh,
Speaker 1: they've changed their stripes. So we're dealing with the political party.
Speaker 1: I mean, the Arabs themselves. Is a long history of
Speaker 1: like I have a Muslim brotherhood and then you have the
Speaker 1: political arm of it, and you just deal with them,
Speaker 1: and you say that these are the people that are it,
Speaker 1: the terrorists, We're just gonna ignore them. So there is
Speaker 1: wiggle room here. I think. Another thing is forty two
Speaker 1: days is a long time, all right, So that's a
Speaker 1: lot of people for people in Israel who have to
Speaker 1: ruminate on what's happening. Do we really want to go
Speaker 1: back to this? How many what was it? I think
Speaker 1: Ryan said this, five hundred IDF soldiers have been killed
Speaker 1: since that ceasfire deal has been on the table. So
Speaker 1: if you're an Israeli family, you want your guys to
Speaker 1: go back into the brink. Their economy is teetering, by
Speaker 1: the way. You know, you have all these young men
Speaker 1: who are in military service. Is a huge economic shortage,
Speaker 1: a labor shortage in Israel. They've got financial problems with
Speaker 1: their own The war costs what hundreds of billions of
Speaker 1: shekels like per day or whatever. So if you put
Speaker 1: all this stuff together and you actually put you know,
Speaker 1: tamp things down to restart. It is going to require
Speaker 1: a lot that's here then here in our domestic political situation,
Speaker 1: there are a lot of things that going to happen.
Speaker 1: One of the reasons why that they don't necessarily want
Speaker 1: to do this is when those IDF soldiers pull out
Speaker 1: and people start to go back in. Now, the camera's
Speaker 1: going to come out. Now, the BBC crews are going
Speaker 1: to be able to go in. Now, Clarissa Ward and
Speaker 1: Trey Yanks and all these guys are not going to
Speaker 1: be having IDF military escorts. They're going to be on
Speaker 1: the ground doing whatever they want to do. And now
Speaker 1: we're all, you know, mass Gray, who knows what they're doing.
Speaker 1: Israelis are free.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So when we get the full picture of all of this,
Speaker 1: will Trump really want to be in the Oval office
Speaker 1: and allow again this cast this is put humanitarian things aside.
Speaker 1: Do you want to see, you know, a full on
Speaker 1: reignition of the conflict. And then you know, look, forty
Speaker 1: two days is not just a long time for the Israelies.
Speaker 1: Forty two days a long time for Israel or for
Speaker 1: Hamas for positing in Islami jihad. That's forty two days
Speaker 1: of stockpiling weapons, building IDs, redoing battle plans, they get
Speaker 1: to go back into North Gaza. I wouldn't want to
Speaker 1: be an IDF soldier that has to go back into
Speaker 1: territory that he just walked out of that was allegedly secured.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of things that could happen here
Speaker 1: which may lead to implementation of Face two or some
Speaker 1: sort of new Face to agreement. I wouldn't count the
Speaker 1: Arabs out of this either, the UAE, the Saudis, and others.
Speaker 1: They have got much better relationship with Trump than they
Speaker 1: ever did with the Biden administration, and they do not
Speaker 1: want to see this war continue. Remember also that there's
Speaker 1: a they have leverage on us as well through oil
Speaker 1: and others. Biden was never really able to pull any
Speaker 1: of this off. I mean, that's really what I can
Speaker 1: come down to. Like, clearly the Biden people either didn't
Speaker 1: want to see fire deal or were just so inept
Speaker 1: and incompetent or unable to like see American power for
Speaker 1: what it was that they weren't able to get this done.
Speaker 1: And I mean that's just I can't get away from this.
Speaker 1: It's like, Oh, America is a superpower. I always thought
Speaker 1: it was. It's like, it turns out whenever you do
Speaker 1: provide somebody like ninety eight percent of their political support
Speaker 1: and their weapons, Yeah, and all they ca Yeah, you
Speaker 1: just be like no, it's not happy, yea, and then
Speaker 1: it won't happen.
Speaker 2: Now that's why I mean, I think they did not
Speaker 2: want to see fire deal. I mean, that's that's the
Speaker 2: conclusion that I've effectively come to, because I mean, they
Speaker 2: had every opportunity to secure one, and you know, they
Speaker 2: have at least somebody with three brain cells to rub
Speaker 2: together to figure out that that was a possibility. I
Speaker 2: think all of the intense conversations blah blah blah. In fact,
Speaker 2: there's even reporting that Blink and some of the comments
Speaker 2: that he made actually undermined some of the negotiations that
Speaker 2: were ongoing.
Speaker 3: And yeah, I think that was intentional.
Speaker 2: I think they did not really want a ceasefire deal,
Speaker 2: and that's why there was no ceasefire deal. Just to
Speaker 2: make the the a little bit of the countercase. Well,
Speaker 2: here's what I'll say about in response to you, Sacker,
Speaker 2: which is, I think it's clear this will whether it
Speaker 2: the deal continues into phase two, it will come down
Speaker 2: to Trump because I think BB Night, now, who left
Speaker 2: his own devices, they're going back in. I mean he's
Speaker 2: basically promising, he is promising parts of his coalition were
Speaker 2: going back in in an attempt to try to rescue
Speaker 2: his own political career. So you know, what they're going
Speaker 2: to see over forty two days time is effectively Hamas
Speaker 2: retaking control of government, and for the Israeli right, that
Speaker 2: is not going to be an acceptable outcome. So I
Speaker 2: think there will be tremendous pressure on BB Night now
Speaker 2: who to go back in in some fashion?
Speaker 3: You know?
Speaker 1: Is that the.
Speaker 2: Complete war that has been operable for most of this
Speaker 2: conflict post October seventh, is that more of the you know,
Speaker 2: sort of typical like more limited, I mean still horrible,
Speaker 2: but more limited, like mowing the grass type of operations.
Speaker 2: Is that retaking the Philadelphi cord or like what does
Speaker 2: that look like?
Speaker 3: I don't know, but I think there will be.
Speaker 2: I think without Trump exercising significant pressure after that phase one,
Speaker 2: this war will restart. And so then it comes down
Speaker 2: to how he perceives his own interests and how he
Speaker 2: thinks about this deal, which is why it is troubling
Speaker 2: that the comments here from Mike Waltz, because the other
Speaker 2: way Trump might look at this is I get to
Speaker 2: say I got the hostages out, and there will still
Speaker 2: be some hostages remaining, but the Americans will be out,
Speaker 2: and the women and children will be out, the elderly
Speaker 2: will be out.
Speaker 3: He can say I got I got the hostages back.
Speaker 2: I got a deal where you know, Biden was never
Speaker 2: able to. He's able to embarrass and humiliate Biden, which
Speaker 2: is something that I'm sure he enjoys. And you know what,
Speaker 2: whatever motivates him to get some peace with the Palestinians,
Speaker 2: go for it, go for it, right. But but you
Speaker 2: know he's he's got other interests like Barry Maddison and
Speaker 2: others in his coalition who very much want to see
Speaker 2: a return.
Speaker 3: To these hostilities. You see.
Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting reading Ben Shapiro's analysis slash Cope
Speaker 2: about this deal. He very much is looking at it
Speaker 2: this way of like we'll get some hostages out and
Speaker 2: then they're.
Speaker 1: Going to be well, there's a lot of wish casting out.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Can I end with this before we get to Trita Parsier. Yes,
Speaker 1: If you guys want Trump to go in the direction, look,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is never gonna be the greatest friend to
Speaker 1: the Palatine people. But let me tell you what Trump
Speaker 1: loves being called a peacemaker. Give him credit for the deal.
Speaker 1: Go out there on social media, especially if you're a leftist,
Speaker 1: and be like, thank you Donald Trump for actually getting
Speaker 1: this done. You humiliated Joe Biden. You used this framing
Speaker 1: in particular. For anybody out there who is prominent. Go
Speaker 1: on television, give Donald Trump credit for the deal, because
Speaker 1: right now there's an entire Israeli right wing cope by
Speaker 1: Ben Shapiro and others like no, no, no, be like,
Speaker 1: but listen, you have to create political space to reward
Speaker 1: people for doing things that are good, even if you
Speaker 1: don't like those people. I'm going to take it upon myself.
Speaker 1: I've been trying. I'm from my Twitter account and others.
Speaker 1: I'll be like, this is great, fantastic. Nobody I'm here
Speaker 1: sending mega hats. I'm serious, Like you guys think I'm joking.
Speaker 1: That is how Donald Trump will arrive at the political
Speaker 1: calculus of the Like, you know, I got a lot
Speaker 1: of credit for this. They call me a peacemaker. It's
Speaker 1: a power. What did we always say? How powerful of
Speaker 1: a message? It is no war broke out while I
Speaker 1: was president. You can quibble with it if you want,
Speaker 1: but people liked it. You did the AOC Facebook group
Speaker 1: while I was out. What did all those people say?
Speaker 1: So again, leftists especially people are out there on the center,
Speaker 1: non politically engaged folks, give Donald Trump credit. Actually creates
Speaker 1: some media buzz around this. And I guarantee you if
Speaker 1: that gets in front of the people in the White
Speaker 1: House communication shop and others, they will print it out
Speaker 1: and show it to him. And now you got two
Speaker 1: pronouns in front of you instead of one from Ben Shapiro,
Speaker 1: which is just a criticism of the deal.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not usually this transparent about it, but
Speaker 1: like I care some. I mean, he's I don't want
Speaker 1: this sword to continue. It's just let's end it.
Speaker 2: Obviously how he operates too, Like it's not hard to
Speaker 2: figure out the way that his ego operates. I mean,
Speaker 2: this is part of why he cares TikTok, because it's like, oh,
Speaker 2: people there like me, I like TikTok. Now he's inviting
Speaker 2: the freaking just talk dude operation. It is what it is,
Speaker 2: so take advantage of it. I think that's all So
Speaker 2: so true. The one just last note because I thought
Speaker 2: this was hilarious. Tom con who's like a total psycho
Speaker 2: right wing Zionist, hates the deal, of course, so rather
Speaker 2: than criticizing Trump, he goes on Twitter and.
Speaker 3: He's like Joe Biden's surrender.
Speaker 1: Deal blah blah.
Speaker 2: It's like, dude, Joe Bien had nothing to do with this.
Speaker 2: So if you don't like it, there's one place to
Speaker 2: point your finger. And this it has scrambled a lot
Speaker 2: of brains to see and and like I said, there's
Speaker 2: baby now pumping the brakes. Question marks about what was given,
Speaker 2: like what is the Faustian bargain that was made here?
Speaker 2: What is Israel getting on the other side of this?
Speaker 2: Does a continue pass Phase one? A lot of questions,
Speaker 2: But I'm truly just I'm so happy that at the
Speaker 2: very least Palestinians and Gaza are going.
Speaker 1: To get some Yeah, you get a ford to day break.
Speaker 2: Respite after suffering for so long. So I you know,
Speaker 2: I'm happy to see them having some reason for joy
Speaker 2: and celebration there in the streets.
Speaker 1: Absolutely right, Let's get to our guest Street Departson.
Speaker 2: Very fortunate to be joined this morning by doctor Teresa
Speaker 2: Parsi of course, of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
Speaker 3: Always great to see UZR.
Speaker 1: Good to SEEZR.
Speaker 2: Likewise, thank you first just your top line reaction to
Speaker 2: the contours of this deal and also you know your
Speaker 2: your sentiment about whether it's going to be fully implemented.
Speaker 3: Just phase one.
Speaker 2: We now see BBNA and Yahoo trying to make trouble
Speaker 2: here in the final days. Just give us your type
Speaker 2: top line reactions.
Speaker 8: I think, first of all, obviously we should be very
Speaker 8: happy that this slaughter finally, hopefully is coming to an end.
Speaker 8: But looking at not just the contours but even the
Speaker 8: details of the deal, it's quite clear that this is
Speaker 8: really not particularly different from what already has been on
Speaker 8: the table for quite some time. And I think it
Speaker 8: really shows that President Biden could have done this very
Speaker 8: early on. Every day he could have decided that he's
Speaker 8: going to put in a stop to killing, and every
Speaker 8: day he decided not to. And I think that's going
Speaker 8: to haunt the United States for some time, just as
Speaker 8: much as the Iraq War and unnecessary decisions there haunted
Speaker 8: the United States and continues to haunt the United States
Speaker 8: now when it comes to Phase one, clearly, the way
Speaker 8: that BB is trying to sell it at home is
Speaker 8: to say that this is just going to be phase one.
Speaker 8: But if you take a look at what happened in Lebanon,
Speaker 8: we saw a massive amount of violations of that ceasefire,
Speaker 8: but it.
Speaker 9: Was more lower level violence.
Speaker 8: The higher level violence did cease, and I suspect that
Speaker 8: we will see the same thing in Gaza. Now, the
Speaker 8: question I think that is really essentially is why did
Speaker 8: Trump decide that he wanted this.
Speaker 9: If it is.
Speaker 8: Because he wants to push for an expansion of the
Speaker 8: Abram Accord more normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, then
Speaker 8: I don't see how it would be to his interest
Speaker 8: to see this only be implemented in stage one. Then
Speaker 8: he will likely want to see it fully implemented because
Speaker 8: the demands from the Saudis side not only for an
Speaker 8: end to the violence, but also some semblance of a
Speaker 8: pasting and state has significantly increased because of what Israel
Speaker 8: has done.
Speaker 9: So I think it very much.
Speaker 8: Depends on what Trump's calculations are in the long run.
Speaker 1: Right, So that's one of the things that we wanted
Speaker 1: to talk to you about. Doctor Parsi is in terms
Speaker 1: of the lessons here for Donald Trump but also for
Speaker 1: the prior administration. The ability to compel a deal so
Speaker 1: quickly tells us a lot about the ability of American
Speaker 1: power to be utilized when it wants to be. So
Speaker 1: what can we learn from that going forward with the Israelis?
Speaker 1: And I know in your own study of our past
Speaker 1: relationship with Israel when we have done this in the past, Well, I.
Speaker 8: Think the bottom line is this idea of some sort
Speaker 8: of a beer hulk strategy was the original in here
Speaker 8: because instead of actually pursuing us interest, laying down firmly
Speaker 8: what we want and what we don't want, and if
Speaker 8: these Raelies want to go in a different direction, well
Speaker 8: good luck to you, but you're not going to do
Speaker 8: it with our weapons. Instead, the Biden illustration had a
Speaker 8: strategy of thinking, let's just say yes to everything these
Speaker 8: Raelis want. Let's blame every problem on Hamas, even when
Speaker 8: it's Israel's fault. Let's make sure that we veto every
Speaker 8: resolution at the UN and that miraculously will give us
Speaker 8: credibility so that these Raelis actually will listen to us
Speaker 8: when we say no, which we nevertheless almost never did. Anyways,
Speaker 8: why did the United States need credibility. Did we start
Speaker 8: off from a point of no credibility with this rule,
Speaker 8: So we had to build up this credibility in order
Speaker 8: to be able to afford to say no. That is
Speaker 8: just completely preposterous. The United States had credibility, and the
Speaker 8: United States never used the leverage through the arm cells
Speaker 8: that we had in order to be able to compel
Speaker 8: Israel to move in a direction that was not only
Speaker 8: not violent international law and committing war crimes, but also
Speaker 8: making sure that it didn't.
Speaker 9: Lead to something that would be bad for the United States.
Speaker 8: And one of the key things the administration itself said
Speaker 8: was that it did not want to see an escalation
Speaker 8: of the war in the region.
Speaker 9: Yet in their exit interviews they.
Speaker 8: Brag about the fact that they never publicly criticize the
Speaker 8: Biden the Israelis for bombing is Lebanon, for expanding the war.
Speaker 8: So I think the bottom line lesson is if you
Speaker 8: center your policy on American interests, you're going to get
Speaker 8: a much better outcome. Then if you essentially abdicate your
Speaker 8: responsibility to the American people and defer to foreign leaders,
Speaker 8: friends or foes, it does not matter.
Speaker 2: So doctor Parsi We've just witnessed the world superpower that
Speaker 2: was the primary architect of the post World War two
Speaker 2: international order oversee a slaughter of predominantly women, children, and
Speaker 2: the elderly.
Speaker 3: For over a year. I mean, what does that mean
Speaker 3: for the world moving forward.
Speaker 9: I think it's a disaster.
Speaker 8: And I think one of the things we have to
Speaker 8: keep in mind is that, yes, in the American tradition,
Speaker 8: though the United States played, as you pointed out, a
Speaker 8: critical role in creating the post World War two security
Speaker 8: and international architecture, we nevertheless have been kind of dismissive
Speaker 8: of international law. And to large extent, it's because we
Speaker 8: were so powerful. Not only could we violate it, but
Speaker 8: we never really viewed it as being something that could
Speaker 8: infringe upon our We would never allow it infringe upon
Speaker 8: our sovereignty. Reality is that we are now moving into
Speaker 8: a multipolar world. In that multipolar world, the United States
Speaker 8: relative power compared to what it was before, it's not
Speaker 8: going to be the same. As a result, the ability
Speaker 8: of American power to constrain other countries' rivals of the
Speaker 8: United States is going to be more limited than it
Speaker 8: was before, and it's not going to be able to
Speaker 8: be pervasive as it was before, which means that we
Speaker 8: actually will develop an interest in international law as an
Speaker 8: alternative path to be able to constrain the actions of
Speaker 8: rival streets in a way that we in a unipolar
Speaker 8: era did not have the same interest the need for.
Speaker 8: And this is then very damaging to the United States
Speaker 8: because we have under the Biden administration, who was supposed
Speaker 8: to correct everything Trump did wrong during his four years
Speaker 8: by exiting the Paris Agreement, Yvon Deal et cetera, et cetera,
Speaker 8: actually work tirelessly to hollow out international law VETO and
Speaker 8: all of those Yewan resolutions, the one that they did,
Speaker 8: except they then immediately turned around and said that it's
Speaker 8: not binding, which was completely legally ridiculous as well. We've
Speaker 8: seen their reactions to the ICC, to the ICJ, all
Speaker 8: of those different things. I understand from an immediate political interest,
Speaker 8: folks on the right and the left may not like,
Speaker 8: but in the future world, what we are not going
Speaker 8: to be as powerful as we have been in the
Speaker 8: last few decades, We're actually going to need some of
Speaker 8: those constraints.
Speaker 1: I think that's an fantastic point. And just generally going forward,
Speaker 1: what does this mean now? For US policy in the
Speaker 1: Middle East. The last two years, if we zoom out,
Speaker 1: have been extraordinary, not only with what's happening in Israel.
Speaker 1: We now have a completely new regime in Syria, of
Speaker 1: which of course Israel is also involved in. So what
Speaker 1: is the landscape that Donald Trump now has to deal
Speaker 1: with in the next four years.
Speaker 8: It's a completely different landscape. On the one hand, as
Speaker 8: you pointed out, the Turks are in a very significant
Speaker 8: rising position because their allies, this al Qaeda offshoot, has
Speaker 8: won in Syria and has taken over that country, which
Speaker 8: actually it's interesting. You know, the Turks are now going
Speaker 8: to be much stronger rivals of the Banyans, but they're
Speaker 8: also bumping up against Israel in Syria. The Israelis have
Speaker 8: annexed even more territory of the Syria state, and the
Speaker 8: current Syrian leaders are trying to present a view of
Speaker 8: unifying Syria being Syria nationalists, which is very interesting giving
Speaker 8: that they came from Al Qaeda. Al Qaida was a
Speaker 8: movement that viewed itself as universal, that rejected the very
Speaker 8: existence of these type of states, rejected the idea that
Speaker 8: there should be states of this kind, because there should
Speaker 8: just be one Muslim entity in Uma essentially, but now
Speaker 8: they are trying to present themselves as Syria nationalists.
Speaker 9: Well, how's that going to work out?
Speaker 8: When these Raelis are not only keeping the goal on heights,
Speaker 8: but they're actually taking additional Syrian territory. At some point
Speaker 8: it's going to create tensions between Syria and Israel, which
Speaker 8: means that it will create more tensions between Turkey and Israel.
Speaker 8: And on the other hand, then you have the Turks
Speaker 8: wanting to defeat the Kurds in Syria that the US
Speaker 8: has been supporting, and incidentally, it now seems likely that
Speaker 8: the Iranians are going to be supporting the Curds further.
Speaker 8: And guess who else the Israelis. So what you have
Speaker 8: is a massive mess. And I think Trump's initial instinct
Speaker 8: when all of this started to unfold, by saying this
Speaker 8: is not our fight, we should not be involved, it
Speaker 8: is the right instinct and take a more passive and
Speaker 8: not try to think that, you know, whoever wins in
Speaker 8: Syria is going to get some sort of a major price,
Speaker 8: because there isn't a major price.
Speaker 2: My last question for you, doctor parcis there's been a
Speaker 2: lot of speculation about what Trump may have offered the
Speaker 2: Israelis in exchange for you know, them agreeing to this
Speaker 2: deal that they've been rejecting now for months.
Speaker 3: At this point.
Speaker 2: You mentioned one of those potential things, the Saudi normalization deal.
Speaker 2: Another thing that's been mentioned is West Bank annexation, and
Speaker 2: the third thing that's been mentioned is joining with Israel
Speaker 2: in strikes against Iran. I'd love for you to weigh
Speaker 2: in on that third possibility, your assessment of the likelihood
Speaker 2: there and what that could potentially mean, because we know
Speaker 2: that Trump did have a very hawkish record vice of
Speaker 2: the Israel in his first terms.
Speaker 7: Right.
Speaker 8: Yeah, First of all, let's be clear, we don't know
Speaker 8: yet if actually anything problems. It may very well have
Speaker 8: been that Trump's envoy told Natanyago enough is enough. I
Speaker 8: have fifteen months of these killings and we don't want
Speaker 8: to have to deal with this messagey longer. So you
Speaker 8: have to put an end to it without necessarily making
Speaker 8: any promises. Now, Trump has himself on his social media
Speaker 8: suggests that he's going to take advantage of this development
Speaker 8: and move towards further integrating Israel into the region. That
Speaker 8: could actually be very good news, but it depends on
Speaker 8: how it's done, if it's just going to be an
Speaker 8: expansion of the abram of course, which in my view
Speaker 8: had several significant flaws. The first one being that it
Speaker 8: really shoved the palestiniums under the rug, expecting that they
Speaker 8: simply would not exist any longer or be a factor.
Speaker 8: And that was a major, major miscalculation, because we saw
Speaker 8: two or seventh, which to some extent actually was a
Speaker 8: result of the effort to completely try to push the
Speaker 8: palestadiums society. The other thing was that the United States
Speaker 8: was giving massive concessions to these different states in order
Speaker 8: for them to normalize with Israel, and in the case
Speaker 8: of Saudi Arabia, what the Biden administration has been discussing
Speaker 8: is to give a security guarantee to these Saluleis, meaning
Speaker 8: that the United States would send its women and men
Speaker 8: off to die and kill for.
Speaker 9: The Saudi dictatorship.
Speaker 8: This would deepen America's military involvement in the region beyond
Speaker 8: anything we have seen in the US's history in the
Speaker 8: Middle East. That would be not only a massive mistake,
Speaker 8: it would be completely contradictory to Trump's instincts and what
Speaker 8: he has been promised, which is to actually bring us
Speaker 8: troops home from the Middle East and get less entangled
Speaker 8: in the conflicts of the region. If we actually offered
Speaker 8: a Saudis a security guarantee, we will get more entangled. Moreover,
Speaker 8: the BIDE Admistration was even considering giving these a Saldi's
Speaker 8: nuclear technology, the same nuclear technology that the United States
Speaker 8: fort twenty years to prevent the Iranians from having. Now
Speaker 8: we're actually granting it to a country that has said
Speaker 8: that it might build a bomb and whose track record
Speaker 8: informed policy is highly questionable, particularly mindful of his history
Speaker 8: with al Qaida. These are ridiculous, unthinkable concessions. If it
Speaker 8: is so that the Saudis and the Israelis want to normalize,
Speaker 8: then go ahead normalize. Why should the United States not
Speaker 8: only give concessions but commit them, commit itself to the
Speaker 8: security of these states in order for them to come
Speaker 8: to peace with each other?
Speaker 1: Yeah, well said great, See you, Sarah, Thank you for
Speaker 1: joining us.
Speaker 9: Thank you so much for having.
Speaker 2: For more on the Israeli domestic political situation. Hre fortune
Speaker 2: to be joined this morning by shil Ben Ephraim. He
Speaker 2: is the host of a couple of podcasts with regard
Speaker 2: to Israel. Israel Explained and also history in the land
Speaker 2: of Israel.
Speaker 1: Great to see you, Jail, good to see you.
Speaker 7: Thank you. Always a pleasure to be here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, of course.
Speaker 2: So let me go ahead and put guys eight ten
Speaker 2: up on the screen to start to break down some
Speaker 2: of the internal tensions within the net Nyahuo coalition and
Speaker 2: some of the breakdown over this reported ceasefire deal. So
Speaker 2: Smochrich here says, quote, the deal is bad and dangerous
Speaker 2: for Israel. Security will remain in the government only if
Speaker 2: there is absolute certainty of a return to fighting with
Speaker 2: great intensity. So could you tell us some of the
Speaker 2: fault lines here within the Natyahuo coalition and whether he
Speaker 2: can actually survive politically moving forward with this ceasefire deal.
Speaker 7: Yeah, So this has been moving very fast. You know,
Speaker 7: if we'd had this interview yesterday, I'd be giving you
Speaker 7: a very different answer from what I'd be giving today. So,
Speaker 7: as we know, domestic Israeli politics are one of the
Speaker 7: major reasons the previous attempt to reach a deal, the
Speaker 7: previous very serious attempt to reach a deal from you know,
Speaker 7: May until August failed and that's because Natanielle was very
Speaker 7: reliant on two extreme right wing parties, one run by
Speaker 7: Betzalel smart Rich and the other run by Itamar ben Kvie,
Speaker 7: and both of them are opponents of a deal. Now,
Speaker 7: over the last few months, Natania has made an effort
Speaker 7: to expand his coalition so that he has a little
Speaker 7: bit of cushion against their influence. One of the major
Speaker 7: reasons for that was so that he would have the
Speaker 7: room to be able to make a deal, and he
Speaker 7: did that by bringing in Guidon Star's party was a
Speaker 7: formerly could minister who then became a member of the opposition,
Speaker 7: said he would never sit with Antania and so on
Speaker 7: and so forth, and he was he was brought in.
Speaker 7: We could also manage to bring in members of the
Speaker 7: ben Vere party into the coalition Cohen and Idan Roll
Speaker 7: from Ya La Pede's opposite party as well, so he
Speaker 7: had a little bit more cushion. And what he managed
Speaker 7: to do is he managed to get smot Rich to
Speaker 7: say that he would stay in the government if there's
Speaker 7: a deal, while Benver threatened to leave. But now there's
Speaker 7: been a lot of pressure on smot Rich, much more
Speaker 7: than he expected to leave as well, and now he's
Speaker 7: leaning towards leavings. So today is in a lot of
Speaker 7: trouble because he can't lose both. He can only lose one,
Speaker 7: even though he's padded his coalition.
Speaker 1: Interesting, so we've seen a bit of a freak out
Speaker 1: inside of Israel. Can we put this next one, for example,
Speaker 1: up on the screen just to show the audience and
Speaker 1: example of what things look like inside. For for example,
Speaker 1: here we have Elon Levy. The biggest boost of global
Speaker 1: jihad will come from hamastaging a victory parade him in
Speaker 1: the rubble. The free world is going to pay a
Speaker 1: terrible price for pressuring Israel to leave the Hamas regime
Speaker 1: in power and sort of pressuring Hamas and working to
Speaker 1: remove it. So there is certainly a constituency, like you said,
Speaker 1: inside of israelits pushing it back against this deal. How
Speaker 1: does that influence then Netanyahu's ability to stay in power?
Speaker 1: Like you said, if he does lee, if he does
Speaker 1: lose two of these members, or even if he does
Speaker 1: manage to hang on, he's still got some forty two
Speaker 1: days more pressure to resume the war and to continue it.
Speaker 1: How what will that look like?
Speaker 7: Yeah, So the plan that Nitaniel had was he will
Speaker 7: he will pass the deal and then improvise for forty
Speaker 7: two days and see what he can do. Now there's
Speaker 7: there's a couple of things that could happen. One is
Speaker 7: he could have some kind of excuse to break the
Speaker 7: ceasefire and Hamas usually don't and here to see spires
Speaker 7: all that religiously ironically, you know, consider their ideology. And
Speaker 7: Israel could find some pretext for restarting the war over
Speaker 7: those forty two days. They hope, or Nathaniel was hoping
Speaker 7: that Trump might give him some benefit that will allow
Speaker 7: him to keep the coalition. For example, annexing West Bank
Speaker 7: settlements is something I've heard talk about, or attacking Iran,
Speaker 7: either allowing Israel to attack Iran, or even better for
Speaker 7: Nathaniel's perspective, attacking Iran himself using the US. So then
Speaker 7: if you get that, then you can say, well, I
Speaker 7: got these benefits in return for the ceasefire. I have
Speaker 7: all these achievements. And also now as a matter of
Speaker 7: national security, we need to take out the Iranian nuclear program,
Speaker 7: so we need you to stay in the government. And
Speaker 7: so Smotrich and Nathaniel have been talking about those sorts
Speaker 7: of things. But Smothering has been under so much press
Speaker 7: sure from his own party and from his own like
Speaker 7: you said constituency that that that deal is being frayed.
Speaker 7: So that has been saying for a long time that
Speaker 7: he will be able to restart the war after the
Speaker 7: first phase. But that's not what the deal said. The
Speaker 7: deals is completely different. The deal says that there will
Speaker 7: be negotiations for a second phase and that it will
Speaker 7: be reached and that's guaranteed by the mediator, which includes
Speaker 7: the United States. So he's this game that he's been
Speaker 7: trying to play right now, he's kind of being forced
Speaker 7: by public opinion on the right to make a choice,
Speaker 7: and that that's where he is right now. If he
Speaker 7: comes out and says there's not going to be a
Speaker 7: second phase and we're going to restart the war, then
Speaker 7: there's really no reason for Hamas to agree to anything.
Speaker 7: And Hamas also is pausing, you know, problems now with
Speaker 7: how how heavy the highest heavy hitting prisoners are going
Speaker 7: to be, how many people they've killed, how well known
Speaker 7: they are, And Hamas is also going to play all
Speaker 7: sorts of games during the ceasefire. And that's why that
Speaker 7: is going to have a pretext. If you want to
Speaker 7: say Hamas have broken the ceasefire, Hamas are demanding too
Speaker 7: much and and restart. So really at this point Thatandel
Speaker 7: is going to have to choose does he want the
Speaker 7: wrath of Trump or does he want his coalition to
Speaker 7: to collapse most which is putting him in that position.
Speaker 7: And that's why we're starting to see Nathaniel start to
Speaker 7: backtrack from the deal. Yeah, that's why we're we haven't
Speaker 7: seen anthanielle come out and say we've reached the deal.
Speaker 7: I'm happy that.
Speaker 2: Let me actually jump in on that, because that is
Speaker 2: the latest reporting his office put on a state saying
Speaker 2: Hamas's renegging on the understandings and creating a last minute
Speaker 2: crisis that is preventing an agreement, so giving himself a
Speaker 2: pretext to potentially back out of the deal and lay
Speaker 2: the blame at the feet of Hamas. There's also the
Speaker 2: Jerusalem Post reporting that he's sort of playing fast and
Speaker 2: loose with some of the terms of the deal. So
Speaker 2: he's saying, contrary to misleading reports, Israel's not withdrawing from
Speaker 2: the Philadelphi Corridor. Israel will remain in Phase A of
Speaker 2: the quarter for the entire.
Speaker 3: Forty two day period.
Speaker 2: That's different from the terms of the deal as has
Speaker 2: been publicly reported. In addition, he's saying no end to
Speaker 2: the war until Hamas agrees to Israel quote achieving the
Speaker 2: wars objectives of destroying Hamas as a militant group, disarming Gaza,
Speaker 2: and deposing the local government. There's very small likelihood Hamas
Speaker 2: would agree to a deal that includes requirements of their
Speaker 2: own destruction. So, you know, do you think that this
Speaker 2: deal even ultimately goes forward?
Speaker 3: What do you make of this.
Speaker 2: Last minute squeamishness and the fact, as you said, that
Speaker 2: Phoebe himself has not come out and said.
Speaker 3: Hey, congratulations, there we have a deal. We're moving forward
Speaker 3: with us.
Speaker 7: Yeah. So did the real problem here separating the normal
Speaker 7: shall we say, Middle Eastern last minute negotiation tactics which
Speaker 7: are always like this, and the coalition crisis in Israel.
Speaker 7: It's very hard to separate those two. There's a certain
Speaker 7: amount of brinkmanship that goes into the last minute of
Speaker 7: any hostage deal that looks a lot like what we're
Speaker 7: seeing now. And then there's also the internal political squabbling
Speaker 7: that has actually prevented previous deals, and to some extent,
Speaker 7: they also serve each other. The internal tensions also allow
Speaker 7: Israel to demand more and get it in the last
Speaker 7: minute from Hamas, So there's a little bit of that
Speaker 7: going on. But also it's important to note that Daniel
Speaker 7: is not exactly lying in what he's saying. What he's
Speaker 7: doing is what is he's trying to pretend that there's
Speaker 7: no phase two. In Phase one, Israel does remain in
Speaker 7: the Philadelphia carridor in phase two, it's it removes itself
Speaker 7: from there. So what he's saying is he's pretending that
Speaker 7: only Phase one exists and Phase one doesn't, which also
Speaker 7: serves him in his negotiations with with Smooth Rich, who
Speaker 7: says that he's willing to stay through phase one. So
Speaker 7: there's a there's some improvisation here and and pretense. And
Speaker 7: as for destruction of Hummaus, that's not in the agreement,
Speaker 7: as you noted, no ordering to agree to destroy themselves.
Speaker 7: And that's a game that he played last time when
Speaker 7: he scuttled it as well, he said you know that
Speaker 7: he's not going to stop until Hamas is destroyed. So
Speaker 7: it's very hard to separate between the two. So as
Speaker 7: for will the deal go forward, my guess is yes.
Speaker 7: I would have been much more optimistic yesterday. I think
Speaker 7: that it's a little bit out of his hands. I
Speaker 7: think that once everyone's announced it, once the sides of agreed,
Speaker 7: once Trump has put his prestige into it, if he
Speaker 7: breaks it, the price will be quite high. His best
Speaker 7: chance for re election might be to stay with Trump,
Speaker 7: stay with this deal, get as much as he can
Speaker 7: from Trump improvised through the first stage, and hope that
Speaker 7: he can either get Hamas to break it in a
Speaker 7: way that can convince Trump, or that Trump will offer
Speaker 7: him enough so that he can come and say to
Speaker 7: the public, look at all that I achieved. And it's
Speaker 7: important to note that both Ben Clear and Smotage are
Speaker 7: saying we're leaving the government, but we're not going to
Speaker 7: vote to topple it. And at the opposition, the left
Speaker 7: wing opposition or you know, such as it is, centrist whatever, yeah,
Speaker 7: are saying that they will provide a safety net for Nathanielle.
Speaker 7: So even if Ben Gear and smothers to leave the government,
Speaker 7: the government's not going to fall, at least not yet.
Speaker 7: They have a minority government, which is very weird in Israel,
Speaker 7: but it's possible. And then if he gets enough, he
Speaker 7: might be able to get someone else to come in
Speaker 7: and get a majority again. So if I was him
Speaker 7: facing these two things, I would take the deal and
Speaker 7: try to get as much from Trump and then try
Speaker 7: to re establish my coalition with other parties or bring
Speaker 7: ben Gira Smotriz back in. And I'm guessing that's what
Speaker 7: he's going to do. And so he's gonna try to
Speaker 7: get as many concessions as he can. Go to the deal,
Speaker 7: stay in the government. They'll survive because no one's going
Speaker 7: to topple him in the meantime because he has a
Speaker 7: safety net, and then he'll improvise and find a way
Speaker 7: to survive. Nathaniel always finds a way to survive.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's a fair bet. Generally, thank you so much.
Speaker 2: It's always so useful to have your analysis.
Speaker 1: We appreciate you, Johns, appreciate you man.
Speaker 7: Thank you anytime, have a onon full bit.