1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,599
Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

2
00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,200
Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

3
00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,840
Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

4
00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:08,720
Speaker 2: the future of the show.

5
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:10,760
Speaker 1: This is the only place where you can find honest

6
00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,280
Speaker 1: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

7
00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:14,680
Speaker 1: not exist anywhere else.

8
00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,080
Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

9
00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,599
Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

10
00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,800
Speaker 2: you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free,

11
00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:25,600
Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

12
00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:27,560
Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent

13
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,920
Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

14
00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:35,880
Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. Have an amazing

15
00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:38,160
Speaker 1: show for everybody. Today's Pacshow. What do we have great, Yes,

16
00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:38,360
Speaker 1: we do.

17
00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:39,800
Speaker 2: We got a bunch of guests and we got a

18
00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:41,920
Speaker 2: lot of big news. So we're going to start the

19
00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:45,560
Speaker 2: show with a full breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire deal,

20
00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:47,839
Speaker 2: how it came to be, the different phases, some of

21
00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:50,479
Speaker 2: the remaining question marks. We've got two different guests to

22
00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:53,080
Speaker 2: give us analysis on that. Doctor true Tu Parsi and

23
00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:55,560
Speaker 2: Shila van Ephraim. We've had him on before. He's like

24
00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:57,800
Speaker 2: a liberal Zionist who has a great view of the

25
00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:02,320
Speaker 2: Israeli domestic political situation, which is becoming increasingly relevant as

26
00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:05,120
Speaker 2: Netnyahoo is sort of I guess pumping the brakes on

27
00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:05,440
Speaker 2: the deal.

28
00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:07,640
Speaker 3: Anyway, we'll get into all of the details there.

29
00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:10,160
Speaker 2: We're also going to break down for you the confirmation

30
00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:13,399
Speaker 2: hearings that happened yesterday. We got Lil Marco all grown

31
00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:17,720
Speaker 2: up and facing not very contentious hearings. Actually he's you know,

32
00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:20,160
Speaker 2: he's a senator. He's got respectability, so even though he's

33
00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:22,119
Speaker 2: a warhawk, they I'll like him in there. You also

34
00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,720
Speaker 2: had Pampondi, who of course is Trump's nominee for Attorney General.

35
00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:26,920
Speaker 3: So we'll take a look at that.

36
00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:31,960
Speaker 2: Vivek has emerged sort of Trump is pushing for him

37
00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:35,240
Speaker 2: to be in the mix for that Ohio Senate seat

38
00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:37,399
Speaker 2: that is being vacated by Jadie. Vance will break that

39
00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:39,720
Speaker 2: down for you. Take a look at John Stewart ripping

40
00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:43,640
Speaker 2: Republicans over their desire to withhold aid to California, or

41
00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:46,360
Speaker 2: at least to put a bunch of stipulations to that

42
00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,680
Speaker 2: aid to California and to la as they struggle continue

43
00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:54,120
Speaker 2: to struggle with those horrific wildfires. Mister Beast might buy TikTok,

44
00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:57,400
Speaker 2: the latest TikTok. I mean, I don't know that that's

45
00:01:57,400 --> 00:01:59,440
Speaker 2: all that likely, but we wanted to cover TikTok again

46
00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,400
Speaker 2: because the band is said to go into effect on.

47
00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:05,320
Speaker 1: What Sunday, Sunday, January nineteenth, So you know.

48
00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:09,720
Speaker 2: This is happening absent some significant development. So we'll give

49
00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:11,840
Speaker 2: you the latest on that and a little bit of

50
00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:16,080
Speaker 2: breaking news here. Fashakir, who is now the head of

51
00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:19,239
Speaker 2: More Perfect Union but previously ran Bernie Sanders' twenty twenty

52
00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,480
Speaker 2: presidential campaign. He has just jumped into the race for

53
00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:25,960
Speaker 2: DNC chair and he's going to join me here live.

54
00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:27,960
Speaker 3: A little bit of an exclusive. He just announced yesterday.

55
00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:29,960
Speaker 2: I don't know if he's done any other interviews yet, Okay,

56
00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:31,440
Speaker 2: so maybe the first. So I got a lot of

57
00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:33,600
Speaker 2: questions for him. Be really interesting to hear what his

58
00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,320
Speaker 2: vision for the Democratic Party is. Before we get to

59
00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:38,480
Speaker 2: any of that, though, we have some big plans for

60
00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:40,120
Speaker 2: the inauguration coverage next ye.

61
00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:41,920
Speaker 1: Yes, that's right. Make sure you guys are tuning in.

62
00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:43,840
Speaker 1: We'll be streaming it here live on the channel. We'll

63
00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:47,840
Speaker 1: give you our instant reaction to the inaugural address. Excited

64
00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:50,720
Speaker 1: to see it. Already, Washington is a buzz. It's going

65
00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:52,400
Speaker 1: to be a cold one for any of you who

66
00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:55,959
Speaker 1: out there who are attending. Please check the weather. It's

67
00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,560
Speaker 1: going to be somewhere in the teens with the wind chill.

68
00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,800
Speaker 1: Oh it's yeah. It's going to be a brutal inauguration

69
00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:04,919
Speaker 1: for the people who are attendant.

70
00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:07,040
Speaker 3: Donald Trump to be out for that one.

71
00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,679
Speaker 1: Please if you're doing that. I've attended several of these inaugurations.

72
00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:14,240
Speaker 1: People are never prepared. They're from Florida or whatever, like, oh,

73
00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:17,000
Speaker 1: it'll be you don't know what you're talking about, all right.

74
00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:19,000
Speaker 1: Take it from a guy from the South. It's brutal

75
00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:22,760
Speaker 1: up here, especially whenever there's windshill. This might be snow

76
00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:24,919
Speaker 1: the next day and all of that. So please stay

77
00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:26,840
Speaker 1: safe out there and make sure they can make all

78
00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:26,959
Speaker 1: of that.

79
00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's one thing when you're moving around that outside

80
00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:32,520
Speaker 2: and it's cold, but at inauguration you're gonna have to

81
00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:34,640
Speaker 2: like walk to where you're going to stand and then

82
00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:35,640
Speaker 2: you're just gonna stand there.

83
00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,360
Speaker 1: You will walk for miles because the metro will be

84
00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:42,880
Speaker 1: unusable and you will be standing in place like yards

85
00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,160
Speaker 1: hundreds of yards away from the only porta Potti. So again,

86
00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:48,600
Speaker 1: you need to make sure that you know what you're

87
00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:51,320
Speaker 1: getting into. I hate to be a buzzkill, but I've

88
00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:52,160
Speaker 1: seen too many.

89
00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:54,040
Speaker 3: Didn't you look up the history of like the yes,

90
00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:54,640
Speaker 3: I did.

91
00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:57,480
Speaker 1: This might be the second coldest, might be third coldest

92
00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:01,160
Speaker 1: inauguration on record. For what we we have Ronald Reagan's

93
00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:05,080
Speaker 1: second inaugural nineteen eighty five. It was a minus four

94
00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:08,880
Speaker 1: degrees that morning. They actually canceled the inaugural parade because

95
00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,040
Speaker 1: it was just too damn cold. So wow. Anyways, we

96
00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:14,360
Speaker 1: will have all of the coverage here Live that you

97
00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,359
Speaker 1: can that you will need. Will cover the ceremony obviously,

98
00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:19,680
Speaker 1: but I'm really interested to see what the actual inaugural

99
00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,200
Speaker 1: address will be. I still think American Carnage is one

100
00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:25,080
Speaker 1: of the most unique inaugurate inaugural addresses literally ever given

101
00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:28,560
Speaker 1: in US history, just because of the tone. I mean,

102
00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:31,320
Speaker 1: there's literally never been a president who has come in

103
00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:34,080
Speaker 1: even FDR in the middle of the Great Depression, gives

104
00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:37,760
Speaker 1: us optimistic speech. Trump chooses the opposite. I think fundamentally

105
00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,200
Speaker 1: that was actually a political genius point and it's one

106
00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:43,080
Speaker 1: that he has used now to come back and assume

107
00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:46,159
Speaker 1: the Oval office. So anyway, giving away some of my commentary,

108
00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,360
Speaker 1: but I think you guys are really going to enjoy

109
00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,920
Speaker 1: our coverage. And then the next day on Tuesday, we'll

110
00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:53,480
Speaker 1: do a live show as well, because we are expecting

111
00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,360
Speaker 1: a flurry of executive orders and there's gonna be news

112
00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:57,880
Speaker 1: coming in. It's gonna be it's gonna be real a really

113
00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:00,159
Speaker 1: big week here for the show. So sign up up

114
00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:02,080
Speaker 1: if you can Breaking Points dot Com, et cetera, and

115
00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:03,599
Speaker 1: we will be live here no matter what.

116
00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:07,719
Speaker 2: All right, let's get to some rare but excellent news

117
00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:11,479
Speaker 2: that's right in the Middle East. A ceasefire deal has

118
00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:14,000
Speaker 2: been achieved. There are a couple of question marks and caveats.

119
00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:15,800
Speaker 2: We'll get to those in a moment, but let's start

120
00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,320
Speaker 2: with the celebration and the streets of Gaza. I mean,

121
00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:22,080
Speaker 2: these people, these Palestinians, have suffered, They've been in terror

122
00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:24,560
Speaker 2: and by the way, Israel is continuing to bomb in

123
00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:27,200
Speaker 2: the Gaza strip up until the moment when the deal

124
00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:29,480
Speaker 2: is supposed to go into effect, so there's still plenty

125
00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:31,280
Speaker 2: of carnish there going on. But we can go ahead

126
00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:34,760
Speaker 2: and put these celebrations up on the screen. People are

127
00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:38,359
Speaker 2: just a buliant that there might be some break in

128
00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:42,080
Speaker 2: the horror that they have suffered for more than a year.

129
00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:44,600
Speaker 2: At this point, I mean, you see these little children.

130
00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:48,880
Speaker 2: This is a reporter for Al Jazeera who is reporting

131
00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:50,920
Speaker 2: that the ceasefire deal has been achieved.

132
00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:52,279
Speaker 3: He has a crowd around him.

133
00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:55,400
Speaker 2: He's taking off his flat jacket there and then they actually,

134
00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:57,920
Speaker 2: I think, like carry him off on their shoulders. People

135
00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:02,120
Speaker 2: here parading through the street so happy. Part of the

136
00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:05,359
Speaker 2: ceasefire deal is not only the you know, a cessation

137
00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:08,640
Speaker 2: of the carnage and the bombing and the snipers, but

138
00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:13,080
Speaker 2: also increased food aid. We know that resources have been

139
00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:17,560
Speaker 2: just incredibly, incredibly scarce. More of the children of Gaza

140
00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:21,520
Speaker 2: out in the street dancing, and you know, it's just

141
00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:25,200
Speaker 2: it's so beautiful to see them so happy. Doctors in

142
00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:30,120
Speaker 2: the hospital also celebrating. I cannot imagine what these people

143
00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:33,839
Speaker 2: have seen, what horrific wounds they have treated, the number

144
00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:37,040
Speaker 2: of dead they have had to carry out. Huge crowd

145
00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:42,320
Speaker 2: celebrations here as well. Everybody recording and filming this moment

146
00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:44,720
Speaker 2: when they feel that at least they're set to get

147
00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:48,720
Speaker 2: a respite, and then this is some I don't know

148
00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,880
Speaker 2: if it's Hamas or Palestinian Islamic ji Hud, but some

149
00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:56,080
Speaker 2: fighters who are feeling comfortable to emerge here as this

150
00:06:56,120 --> 00:07:00,679
Speaker 2: deals announced, which you know that was included very intentional because,

151
00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,200
Speaker 2: as we've been saying from the beginning Saga, Israel was

152
00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:06,599
Speaker 2: not able to wipe out Hamas.

153
00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:08,280
Speaker 3: They In fact, Tony.

154
00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:10,840
Speaker 2: Blinken just came out this week and said, actually, we

155
00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,520
Speaker 2: estimate that they have recruited about as many fighters as

156
00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:18,080
Speaker 2: they have lost. So you know, it's predictable from the

157
00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:22,840
Speaker 2: beginning that accomplishing that objective, that maximalist objective from Israel,

158
00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:26,800
Speaker 2: at least through military means, was going to be impossible.

159
00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:30,400
Speaker 2: And yet we do have this ceasefire deal that has

160
00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:33,679
Speaker 2: been achieved, you know, in large part because Donald Trump

161
00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:35,720
Speaker 2: was willing to actually apply a little bit of pressure

162
00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:39,240
Speaker 2: to the Israelis into Benjamin Natyaho specifically, let's put this

163
00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:41,400
Speaker 2: ceasefire agreement up on the screen so you can see

164
00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:43,320
Speaker 2: these phases, and this is going to be relevant as

165
00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,160
Speaker 2: we talk about how this might unfold and some of

166
00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:49,480
Speaker 2: the question marks and caveats to this actual deal. But

167
00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:51,560
Speaker 2: let me just read through the outline here. This is

168
00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:55,520
Speaker 2: the draft. This, by the way, is the exact same

169
00:07:55,920 --> 00:08:01,280
Speaker 2: deal that was crafted back in May under Joe Biden

170
00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:06,600
Speaker 2: that Hamas agreed to and the Israelis backed away from.

171
00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,360
Speaker 2: So we've had months of slaughter and carnage to achieve

172
00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:11,920
Speaker 2: nothing other than additional horror.

173
00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:13,280
Speaker 3: This was the original deal.

174
00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:15,920
Speaker 2: So in any case, Phase one forty two days, Hamas

175
00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:19,080
Speaker 2: is going to release thirty three hostages, including female civilians

176
00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:22,640
Speaker 2: and soldiers, children and civilians over fifty. Israel is going

177
00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:26,320
Speaker 2: to release thirty Palestinian prisoners. For every civilian hostage and

178
00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:29,440
Speaker 2: fifty for each female soldier who's being held hostage.

179
00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:31,600
Speaker 3: There'd be a cessation of fighting.

180
00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:35,920
Speaker 2: Israeli forces will move out of populated areas but remain

181
00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:39,640
Speaker 2: on the edges of the Gaza Strip. Displaced Palestinians will

182
00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:43,840
Speaker 2: begin returning home, and more aid will begin entering into

183
00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:47,520
Speaker 2: the strip. Okay, that's Phase one forty two days, and

184
00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:51,560
Speaker 2: that is set to go into effect Sunday. If BB

185
00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:53,120
Speaker 2: nine now, who doesn't blow up the deal, which we'll

186
00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,720
Speaker 2: talk about in a moment. Phase two forty two days

187
00:08:55,840 --> 00:09:00,720
Speaker 2: declaration of quote sustainable calm, Hamas freeze remaining a hostages,

188
00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:02,960
Speaker 2: both soldiers and civilians in exchange for a yet to

189
00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:06,319
Speaker 2: be negotiated number of Palestinian prisoners in a full with

190
00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:07,600
Speaker 2: all of Israeli troops from.

191
00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:09,240
Speaker 3: The Gaza Strip. Phase three.

192
00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:13,040
Speaker 2: You have the bodies of deceased Israeli hostages, and we're

193
00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:15,280
Speaker 2: not sure how many there are of those at this point,

194
00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:19,240
Speaker 2: exchange for bodies of deceased Palestinian fighters. Implementation of a

195
00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,920
Speaker 2: reconstruction plan in Gaza. Still very little details in terms

196
00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:24,839
Speaker 2: of how that will work and who will govern in Gaza,

197
00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:27,480
Speaker 2: and all of that is still major question mark. Border

198
00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:31,520
Speaker 2: crossings for movement in and out of Gaza are reopened.

199
00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:34,720
Speaker 2: I referenced before we can put this up on the screen,

200
00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:37,040
Speaker 2: this tear sheet, and we talked about this a little bit,

201
00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:38,880
Speaker 2: and Ryan and Emily talked about this a little bit

202
00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:42,360
Speaker 2: as well. This is behind the scenes of how the

203
00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:44,760
Speaker 2: deal went down. As I said, the contours of the

204
00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:47,640
Speaker 2: steal have existed since May when Hamas agreed to it,

205
00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,560
Speaker 2: and BB nine Yahoo and Besililsmochurch and Ben Gaver, who

206
00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,760
Speaker 2: was out there bragging about how he tanked multiple potential

207
00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:58,200
Speaker 2: ceasefire deals. They were the primary obstacles them and the

208
00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,160
Speaker 2: fact that the Biden administration was never willing to apply

209
00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:04,680
Speaker 2: any pressure whatsoever and actually are out now admitting that

210
00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:08,160
Speaker 2: they never applied any pressure whatsoever, so they say in

211
00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:10,960
Speaker 2: this article from the Times of Israel and the similar

212
00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:13,160
Speaker 2: things have been reported in other outlets as well. A

213
00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,520
Speaker 2: tense weekend meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and incoming

214
00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,520
Speaker 2: Mideast Envoy Steve Whitcoff led to a breakthrough of the

215
00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:22,800
Speaker 2: hostage negotiations, with the top a tous President elect Donald

216
00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:25,680
Speaker 2: Trump doing more to sway the premiere in a single

217
00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,280
Speaker 2: sit down than outgoing President.

218
00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:29,880
Speaker 3: Joe Biden did all year.

219
00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:32,440
Speaker 2: Two Arab officials told The Times of Israel on Tuesday,

220
00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:34,360
Speaker 2: Witcoff has been in Doha for the past week to

221
00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:36,959
Speaker 2: take part in those hostage negotiations as mediators try to

222
00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,439
Speaker 2: secure a deal before Trump' January twentieth inauguration. On Saturday,

223
00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:42,720
Speaker 2: Whitcoff flew to Israel for meeting with Biebe at the

224
00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:46,400
Speaker 2: Premiere's Jerusalem office. During the meeting, Whitcoff urged Netnyahu to

225
00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:50,200
Speaker 2: accept key compromises necessary for an agreement. The two Arab

226
00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:53,480
Speaker 2: officials on Monday told The Times of Israel on condition

227
00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,480
Speaker 2: of anonymity, so that is how it went down. And

228
00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:59,880
Speaker 2: you know, the Biden people aren't really even disputing this.

229
00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:03,760
Speaker 1: No, but there's a lot of consternation here there absolutely

230
00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:06,920
Speaker 1: because they're so upset that Trump is getting credit for

231
00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:10,880
Speaker 1: the deal. No honest analysis can say that they had

232
00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:14,000
Speaker 1: anything to do with the completion of it. I keep

233
00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,480
Speaker 1: thinking about this. So Brett McGirk and a lot of

234
00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:18,280
Speaker 1: people who are watching the show, they may don't even

235
00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:21,080
Speaker 1: know who he is. Brett McGirk has been involved in

236
00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:24,000
Speaker 1: US Middle East policy since I was a small child.

237
00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:27,080
Speaker 1: He has worked for every US president since George W. Bush.

238
00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:29,720
Speaker 1: He was in Iraq and you worked for the poetry.

239
00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:32,400
Speaker 2: Literal Eastern disaster that this country has gotten involved.

240
00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:35,520
Speaker 1: He was working for the Coalitional Provisional Authority in three

241
00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,520
Speaker 1: when I was in grade school. Has basically not left

242
00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,720
Speaker 1: government service since living in Doha basically for the last

243
00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:44,080
Speaker 1: two years trying to get a cease fire deal. Steve

244
00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:49,840
Speaker 1: Whitkoff built the fon ten Blue casino in Las Vegas. Okay,

245
00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:54,120
Speaker 1: just so we're talking about here, the guy who built

246
00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:57,400
Speaker 1: the casino was able to close this deal in two months.

247
00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:02,199
Speaker 1: And I'm like, okay, so, so either you know these

248
00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:05,280
Speaker 1: foreign policy people are idiots, their bosses are you know,

249
00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:09,120
Speaker 1: just have no experience. Maybe the myth of like people

250
00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:11,640
Speaker 1: who have no experience in government are actually better at government.

251
00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:14,520
Speaker 1: All of the above. I mean, obviously, I mean simplifying this,

252
00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:16,920
Speaker 1: But how extraordinary is that?

253
00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:20,000
Speaker 2: I mean, I think the obvious answer is they didn't

254
00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:24,720
Speaker 2: want because if you did, it was achievable. And you know,

255
00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:28,640
Speaker 2: people were mocked, like myself for saying like, no, if

256
00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:32,280
Speaker 2: you want this to end, it will end, period. And

257
00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:34,559
Speaker 2: you know, there were all these people on like, oh, you.

258
00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:36,880
Speaker 4: Think he's just got a magical ceasefire button in the

259
00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:39,200
Speaker 4: office or you could just pick up like yeah, actually

260
00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:41,400
Speaker 4: I do, Yes, I do think that. I do think

261
00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,280
Speaker 4: that if Joe Biden picked up the phone or one

262
00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:46,719
Speaker 4: of his credible emissaries or its Tony Blinker or Jake

263
00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,480
Speaker 4: Sullivan or whoever the hell picked up the phone and

264
00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:52,160
Speaker 4: said we're done. It's over, we are not shipping any

265
00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:54,320
Speaker 4: more weapons. You are going to wrap this up. You

266
00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:56,720
Speaker 4: are going to accept this deal that Hamas has accepted

267
00:12:56,920 --> 00:12:58,199
Speaker 4: and deal with the political fault.

268
00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,679
Speaker 2: Yes, I do think it would have been over, and

269
00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:06,520
Speaker 2: that has now been one hundred percent proven correct. Now

270
00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:09,480
Speaker 2: in terms of some of the remaining question marks. Okay,

271
00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,280
Speaker 2: number one, I think the most obvious thing is like

272
00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,440
Speaker 2: what did what is Trump offering in exchange for this?

273
00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:17,440
Speaker 2: And there's three things that people float. Number one is

274
00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:22,720
Speaker 2: Saudi normalization. Number two is joining Israel in strike on Iran,

275
00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:26,800
Speaker 2: which horrible, disastrous idea, terrible. Number three, which to me

276
00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:28,560
Speaker 2: seems and it may be all of these, maybe some

277
00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,400
Speaker 2: combination of these, whatever, maybe something else that we haven't

278
00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:34,680
Speaker 2: even thought of. Number three, which was reported that Mary Maddison,

279
00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:39,000
Speaker 2: his major major toner, wants him to allow annexation of

280
00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:41,360
Speaker 2: the West Bank. There are already signs that Israel's ramping

281
00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:46,040
Speaker 2: up drop sites, done great job reporting on increased incursions

282
00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:47,559
Speaker 2: and brutality in.

283
00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:48,120
Speaker 3: The West Bank.

284
00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:52,360
Speaker 2: Obviously settlements have expanded there massively over actually in every

285
00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:55,560
Speaker 2: single Israeli government, So that seems a very likely outcome

286
00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,040
Speaker 2: as well. So that's question number one. Question number two

287
00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:03,600
Speaker 2: is this morning reporting net Yahoo is now throwing sand

288
00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:06,600
Speaker 2: in the gears, pumping the brakes once again claiming that

289
00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:09,880
Speaker 2: Hamas is renegging on the agreement. I mean, listen, that's

290
00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,600
Speaker 2: probably bullshit. Hamas is saying, no, we're not. They have

291
00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:17,719
Speaker 2: agreed to this specific deal since May, so you know

292
00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:21,320
Speaker 2: that they're backing out of it now. I highly highly doubt.

293
00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:23,080
Speaker 2: This is one of the things that we'll talk to

294
00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:26,440
Speaker 2: Shiel about today, which is, you know, the domestic situation

295
00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:30,560
Speaker 2: because bb is seeing his coalition kind of collapse. You know,

296
00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:34,000
Speaker 2: the right wing ben Kaver and Smotrich in particular very

297
00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:37,760
Speaker 2: upset with this deal because it's it sort of reminds me,

298
00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,120
Speaker 2: you know, not that they're totally analogous situation, but it

299
00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:43,200
Speaker 2: sort of reminds me of when Biden pulls out of Afghanistan.

300
00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:45,600
Speaker 2: Anytime you end a war, it's a mess and you

301
00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,320
Speaker 2: have to reckon with the reality. You can no longer

302
00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:50,520
Speaker 2: live in the fantasy of like, oh, we're going to

303
00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:53,200
Speaker 2: completely defeat Hamas and it's going to be, you know,

304
00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:56,600
Speaker 2: the end of any Palestinian resistance. When you actually end

305
00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,560
Speaker 2: a war and have a cessation of hostilities, you have

306
00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:03,800
Speaker 2: to grop with what the actual reality is and what

307
00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:06,680
Speaker 2: you know in terms of their state of military goals. Yes,

308
00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:11,200
Speaker 2: they inflicted untold suffering and carnage on the Palestinian population,

309
00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,760
Speaker 2: but they did not achieve the political goals that they

310
00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:17,080
Speaker 2: set out, So you have to grapple with that, and

311
00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:20,960
Speaker 2: you know, the far far right in Israel does not

312
00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:23,120
Speaker 2: want to grapple with that and wants to continue the

313
00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:25,720
Speaker 2: brutality and the carnage basically and definitely, I mean, they're

314
00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:27,840
Speaker 2: very upfront. One thing you have to give him as

315
00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:30,960
Speaker 2: honesty that they want to completely resettle Gaza, completely push

316
00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:34,280
Speaker 2: out the Palestinians who live there. So his government is

317
00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:38,080
Speaker 2: kind of it's teetering, and so he's pumping the brakes

318
00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:41,720
Speaker 2: and claiming that Hamas is renegging. So that's one thing

319
00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:44,040
Speaker 2: to watch whether this thing actually moves forward, whether there's

320
00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:49,960
Speaker 2: a delay, et cetera, et cetera. The other thing is

321
00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:55,880
Speaker 2: that the people in the BBHO coalition, including Smotrich, are

322
00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:59,400
Speaker 2: claiming that they have been promised that after that initial

323
00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:03,040
Speaker 2: phase one where some number of hostages are released, and

324
00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:05,120
Speaker 2: I think it's what lasts for like forty two days,

325
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:10,120
Speaker 2: that they have been promised, Israel will go back to fighting,

326
00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:12,440
Speaker 2: will go back to the war.

327
00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:14,200
Speaker 3: In which case this is not a ceasefire.

328
00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:16,800
Speaker 2: It's that quote unquote humanitarian pause which we had so

329
00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:21,680
Speaker 2: much discussion of early in the war. And troublingly, President

330
00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:26,560
Speaker 2: Trump's incoming National Security advisor Mike Waltz also made similar

331
00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:29,800
Speaker 2: signals that that may also be the way that they

332
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,640
Speaker 2: are thinking about this deal in a recent interview. Let's

333
00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:34,800
Speaker 2: take a listen to his comments.

334
00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:38,680
Speaker 5: From your perspective. If this deal goes through and we

335
00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:43,920
Speaker 5: enter what's characterized as the first phase, does that effectively

336
00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:48,840
Speaker 5: mean the war's over is Does a ceasefire mean that

337
00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:53,440
Speaker 5: Israel's its work is done in Gaza for the foreseeable future.

338
00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:57,760
Speaker 6: Well, I certainly think Hamas would like to believe that,

339
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:03,600
Speaker 6: but we've been clear that Gaza has to be fully demilitarized,

340
00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:07,720
Speaker 6: Hamas has to be destroyed to the point that it

341
00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:13,520
Speaker 6: cannot reconstitute, and that Israel has every right to fully

342
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:18,520
Speaker 6: protect itself. So you know, all of those pieces, all

343
00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:22,040
Speaker 6: of those objectives are still very much in place. Look,

344
00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:24,800
Speaker 6: I mean, the October seventh was a terrible day. They

345
00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:29,000
Speaker 6: put everybody in a terrible position, including the Palestinian people

346
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,520
Speaker 6: of Gaza, whom they regularly hide behind and are willing

347
00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:37,480
Speaker 6: to sacrifice and have sacrificed for their own sick ends

348
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:41,200
Speaker 6: and objectives. And so we need to get our people out,

349
00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,280
Speaker 6: and then we need to achieve those objectives in this war.

350
00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:46,280
Speaker 2: So he's asked there straight out, does this mean the

351
00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:48,360
Speaker 2: end of the war, and he's basically like, no, we're

352
00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:51,680
Speaker 2: going to quote unquote demilitarize Gaza, which is again the

353
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,800
Speaker 2: maximalist rhetoric that the Natanyahu government has been engaged.

354
00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:56,960
Speaker 1: But let me give the caveat, which is he didn't say, yeah,

355
00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:58,760
Speaker 1: we're going to allow them to go back in. I

356
00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:01,520
Speaker 1: am skeptical of how all this is going to play out.

357
00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:03,840
Speaker 1: I think the most likely scenario is the one that

358
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,600
Speaker 1: you're saying that the government of the BB nine now

359
00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:08,720
Speaker 1: government will survive, that they will just simply have to

360
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,240
Speaker 1: go in after forty two days. All the caveats here

361
00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,760
Speaker 1: already we have. It's this is of us pressure. The

362
00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:15,760
Speaker 1: thing is that we understand about Trump is it's not

363
00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,520
Speaker 1: just about the hostages. It's about chaos. He doesn't want

364
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:22,960
Speaker 1: to deal with a massive reignition of protest movement or

365
00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:26,320
Speaker 1: of the you know, the seeming fall apart of his

366
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,720
Speaker 1: framework that he puts forward, all the rhetoric that they

367
00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:32,800
Speaker 1: are using. Let's we've heard all this crap before, right,

368
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,879
Speaker 1: The Taliban will never govern in Afghanistan until, yeah, you

369
00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,200
Speaker 1: got to cut some deals with the Taliban. I'll be like, oh,

370
00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 1: they've changed their stripes. So we're dealing with the political party.

371
00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 1: I mean, the Arabs themselves. Is a long history of

372
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:45,639
Speaker 1: like I have a Muslim brotherhood and then you have the

373
00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:47,960
Speaker 1: political arm of it, and you just deal with them,

374
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:49,439
Speaker 1: and you say that these are the people that are it,

375
00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 1: the terrorists, We're just gonna ignore them. So there is

376
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:55,200
Speaker 1: wiggle room here. I think. Another thing is forty two

377
00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:57,439
Speaker 1: days is a long time, all right, So that's a

378
00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:00,040
Speaker 1: lot of people for people in Israel who have to

379
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:02,399
Speaker 1: ruminate on what's happening. Do we really want to go

380
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:04,360
Speaker 1: back to this? How many what was it? I think

381
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,800
Speaker 1: Ryan said this, five hundred IDF soldiers have been killed

382
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:10,439
Speaker 1: since that ceasfire deal has been on the table. So

383
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,679
Speaker 1: if you're an Israeli family, you want your guys to

384
00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,040
Speaker 1: go back into the brink. Their economy is teetering, by

385
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:16,560
Speaker 1: the way. You know, you have all these young men

386
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,320
Speaker 1: who are in military service. Is a huge economic shortage,

387
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,399
Speaker 1: a labor shortage in Israel. They've got financial problems with

388
00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:24,639
Speaker 1: their own The war costs what hundreds of billions of

389
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,640
Speaker 1: shekels like per day or whatever. So if you put

390
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:29,959
Speaker 1: all this stuff together and you actually put you know,

391
00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:33,320
Speaker 1: tamp things down to restart. It is going to require

392
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:37,080
Speaker 1: a lot that's here then here in our domestic political situation,

393
00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:38,600
Speaker 1: there are a lot of things that going to happen.

394
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:40,800
Speaker 1: One of the reasons why that they don't necessarily want

395
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:42,920
Speaker 1: to do this is when those IDF soldiers pull out

396
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,159
Speaker 1: and people start to go back in. Now, the camera's

397
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:47,399
Speaker 1: going to come out. Now, the BBC crews are going

398
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:50,879
Speaker 1: to be able to go in. Now, Clarissa Ward and

399
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,200
Speaker 1: Trey Yanks and all these guys are not going to

400
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:56,119
Speaker 1: be having IDF military escorts. They're going to be on

401
00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,360
Speaker 1: the ground doing whatever they want to do. And now

402
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 1: we're all, you know, mass Gray, who knows what they're doing.

403
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 1: Israelis are free.

404
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:04,280
Speaker 7: Yeah.

405
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,440
Speaker 1: So when we get the full picture of all of this,

406
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,679
Speaker 1: will Trump really want to be in the Oval office

407
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:15,040
Speaker 1: and allow again this cast this is put humanitarian things aside.

408
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,000
Speaker 1: Do you want to see, you know, a full on

409
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,920
Speaker 1: reignition of the conflict. And then you know, look, forty

410
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 1: two days is not just a long time for the Israelies.

411
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 1: Forty two days a long time for Israel or for

412
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:30,120
Speaker 1: Hamas for positing in Islami jihad. That's forty two days

413
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 1: of stockpiling weapons, building IDs, redoing battle plans, they get

414
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 1: to go back into North Gaza. I wouldn't want to

415
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:38,720
Speaker 1: be an IDF soldier that has to go back into

416
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 1: territory that he just walked out of that was allegedly secured.

417
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of things that could happen here

418
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 1: which may lead to implementation of Face two or some

419
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,119
Speaker 1: sort of new Face to agreement. I wouldn't count the

420
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 1: Arabs out of this either, the UAE, the Saudis, and others.

421
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 1: They have got much better relationship with Trump than they

422
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,960
Speaker 1: ever did with the Biden administration, and they do not

423
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:04,160
Speaker 1: want to see this war continue. Remember also that there's

424
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 1: a they have leverage on us as well through oil

425
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,080
Speaker 1: and others. Biden was never really able to pull any

426
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 1: of this off. I mean, that's really what I can

427
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 1: come down to. Like, clearly the Biden people either didn't

428
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,400
Speaker 1: want to see fire deal or were just so inept

429
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 1: and incompetent or unable to like see American power for

430
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,200
Speaker 1: what it was that they weren't able to get this done.

431
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 1: And I mean that's just I can't get away from this.

432
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,120
Speaker 1: It's like, Oh, America is a superpower. I always thought

433
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:29,600
Speaker 1: it was. It's like, it turns out whenever you do

434
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 1: provide somebody like ninety eight percent of their political support

435
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 1: and their weapons, Yeah, and all they ca Yeah, you

436
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 1: just be like no, it's not happy, yea, and then

437
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 1: it won't happen.

438
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 2: Now that's why I mean, I think they did not

439
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:40,359
Speaker 2: want to see fire deal. I mean, that's that's the

440
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 2: conclusion that I've effectively come to, because I mean, they

441
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 2: had every opportunity to secure one, and you know, they

442
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 2: have at least somebody with three brain cells to rub

443
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,719
Speaker 2: together to figure out that that was a possibility. I

444
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 2: think all of the intense conversations blah blah blah. In fact,

445
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:57,879
Speaker 2: there's even reporting that Blink and some of the comments

446
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 2: that he made actually undermined some of the negotiations that

447
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 2: were ongoing.

448
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 3: And yeah, I think that was intentional.

449
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,640
Speaker 2: I think they did not really want a ceasefire deal,

450
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 2: and that's why there was no ceasefire deal. Just to

451
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 2: make the the a little bit of the countercase. Well,

452
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 2: here's what I'll say about in response to you, Sacker,

453
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 2: which is, I think it's clear this will whether it

454
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 2: the deal continues into phase two, it will come down

455
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 2: to Trump because I think BB Night, now, who left

456
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:25,200
Speaker 2: his own devices, they're going back in. I mean he's

457
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 2: basically promising, he is promising parts of his coalition were

458
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 2: going back in in an attempt to try to rescue

459
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:35,719
Speaker 2: his own political career. So you know, what they're going

460
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 2: to see over forty two days time is effectively Hamas

461
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 2: retaking control of government, and for the Israeli right, that

462
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 2: is not going to be an acceptable outcome. So I

463
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:50,920
Speaker 2: think there will be tremendous pressure on BB Night now

464
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,360
Speaker 2: who to go back in in some fashion?

465
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:53,719
Speaker 3: You know?

466
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 1: Is that the.

467
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 2: Complete war that has been operable for most of this

468
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 2: conflict post October seventh, is that more of the you know,

469
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 2: sort of typical like more limited, I mean still horrible,

470
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:10,359
Speaker 2: but more limited, like mowing the grass type of operations.

471
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 2: Is that retaking the Philadelphi cord or like what does

472
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 2: that look like?

473
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 3: I don't know, but I think there will be.

474
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 2: I think without Trump exercising significant pressure after that phase one,

475
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 2: this war will restart. And so then it comes down

476
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 2: to how he perceives his own interests and how he

477
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 2: thinks about this deal, which is why it is troubling

478
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,880
Speaker 2: that the comments here from Mike Waltz, because the other

479
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 2: way Trump might look at this is I get to

480
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 2: say I got the hostages out, and there will still

481
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 2: be some hostages remaining, but the Americans will be out,

482
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 2: and the women and children will be out, the elderly

483
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:42,880
Speaker 2: will be out.

484
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 3: He can say I got I got the hostages back.

485
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 2: I got a deal where you know, Biden was never

486
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 2: able to. He's able to embarrass and humiliate Biden, which

487
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:52,880
Speaker 2: is something that I'm sure he enjoys. And you know what,

488
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 2: whatever motivates him to get some peace with the Palestinians,

489
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 2: go for it, go for it, right. But but you

490
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 2: know he's he's got other interests like Barry Maddison and

491
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,919
Speaker 2: others in his coalition who very much want to see

492
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 2: a return.

493
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 3: To these hostilities. You see.

494
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:12,119
Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting reading Ben Shapiro's analysis slash Cope

495
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 2: about this deal. He very much is looking at it

496
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 2: this way of like we'll get some hostages out and

497
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 2: then they're.

498
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:19,959
Speaker 1: Going to be well, there's a lot of wish casting out.

499
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 7: Yeah.

500
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 1: Can I end with this before we get to Trita Parsier. Yes,

501
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 1: If you guys want Trump to go in the direction, look,

502
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is never gonna be the greatest friend to

503
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:31,879
Speaker 1: the Palatine people. But let me tell you what Trump

504
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 1: loves being called a peacemaker. Give him credit for the deal.

505
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 1: Go out there on social media, especially if you're a leftist,

506
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 1: and be like, thank you Donald Trump for actually getting

507
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,719
Speaker 1: this done. You humiliated Joe Biden. You used this framing

508
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 1: in particular. For anybody out there who is prominent. Go

509
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 1: on television, give Donald Trump credit for the deal, because

510
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:52,440
Speaker 1: right now there's an entire Israeli right wing cope by

511
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 1: Ben Shapiro and others like no, no, no, be like,

512
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 1: but listen, you have to create political space to reward

513
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,639
Speaker 1: people for doing things that are good, even if you

514
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 1: don't like those people. I'm going to take it upon myself.

515
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 1: I've been trying. I'm from my Twitter account and others.

516
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 1: I'll be like, this is great, fantastic. Nobody I'm here

517
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,639
Speaker 1: sending mega hats. I'm serious, Like you guys think I'm joking.

518
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,160
Speaker 1: That is how Donald Trump will arrive at the political

519
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,399
Speaker 1: calculus of the Like, you know, I got a lot

520
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 1: of credit for this. They call me a peacemaker. It's

521
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,359
Speaker 1: a power. What did we always say? How powerful of

522
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 1: a message? It is no war broke out while I

523
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 1: was president. You can quibble with it if you want,

524
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:31,400
Speaker 1: but people liked it. You did the AOC Facebook group

525
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 1: while I was out. What did all those people say?

526
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 1: So again, leftists especially people are out there on the center,

527
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 1: non politically engaged folks, give Donald Trump credit. Actually creates

528
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,680
Speaker 1: some media buzz around this. And I guarantee you if

529
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 1: that gets in front of the people in the White

530
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 1: House communication shop and others, they will print it out

531
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 1: and show it to him. And now you got two

532
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 1: pronouns in front of you instead of one from Ben Shapiro,

533
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:56,440
Speaker 1: which is just a criticism of the deal.

534
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 3: Yeah.

535
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not usually this transparent about it, but

536
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 1: like I care some. I mean, he's I don't want

537
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 1: this sword to continue. It's just let's end it.

538
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 2: Obviously how he operates too, Like it's not hard to

539
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 2: figure out the way that his ego operates. I mean,

540
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,360
Speaker 2: this is part of why he cares TikTok, because it's like, oh,

541
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 2: people there like me, I like TikTok. Now he's inviting

542
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 2: the freaking just talk dude operation. It is what it is,

543
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,920
Speaker 2: so take advantage of it. I think that's all So

544
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,640
Speaker 2: so true. The one just last note because I thought

545
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 2: this was hilarious. Tom con who's like a total psycho

546
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 2: right wing Zionist, hates the deal, of course, so rather

547
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 2: than criticizing Trump, he goes on Twitter and.

548
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 3: He's like Joe Biden's surrender.

549
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 1: Deal blah blah.

550
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 2: It's like, dude, Joe Bien had nothing to do with this.

551
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,879
Speaker 2: So if you don't like it, there's one place to

552
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,399
Speaker 2: point your finger. And this it has scrambled a lot

553
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 2: of brains to see and and like I said, there's

554
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 2: baby now pumping the brakes. Question marks about what was given,

555
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 2: like what is the Faustian bargain that was made here?

556
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:56,639
Speaker 2: What is Israel getting on the other side of this?

557
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 2: Does a continue pass Phase one? A lot of questions,

558
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 2: But I'm truly just I'm so happy that at the

559
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 2: very least Palestinians and Gaza are going.

560
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 1: To get some Yeah, you get a ford to day break.

561
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:12,959
Speaker 2: Respite after suffering for so long. So I you know,

562
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 2: I'm happy to see them having some reason for joy

563
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 2: and celebration there in the streets.

564
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 1: Absolutely right, Let's get to our guest Street Departson.

565
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 2: Very fortunate to be joined this morning by doctor Teresa

566
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 2: Parsi of course, of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

567
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 3: Always great to see UZR.

568
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 1: Good to SEEZR.

569
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 2: Likewise, thank you first just your top line reaction to

570
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,919
Speaker 2: the contours of this deal and also you know your

571
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:39,679
Speaker 2: your sentiment about whether it's going to be fully implemented.

572
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 3: Just phase one.

573
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 2: We now see BBNA and Yahoo trying to make trouble

574
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,360
Speaker 2: here in the final days. Just give us your type

575
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 2: top line reactions.

576
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,360
Speaker 8: I think, first of all, obviously we should be very

577
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 8: happy that this slaughter finally, hopefully is coming to an end.

578
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:54,919
Speaker 8: But looking at not just the contours but even the

579
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 8: details of the deal, it's quite clear that this is

580
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,199
Speaker 8: really not particularly different from what already has been on

581
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 8: the table for quite some time. And I think it

582
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 8: really shows that President Biden could have done this very

583
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 8: early on. Every day he could have decided that he's

584
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 8: going to put in a stop to killing, and every

585
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 8: day he decided not to. And I think that's going

586
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 8: to haunt the United States for some time, just as

587
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:20,399
Speaker 8: much as the Iraq War and unnecessary decisions there haunted

588
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 8: the United States and continues to haunt the United States

589
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 8: now when it comes to Phase one, clearly, the way

590
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,680
Speaker 8: that BB is trying to sell it at home is

591
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 8: to say that this is just going to be phase one.

592
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 8: But if you take a look at what happened in Lebanon,

593
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 8: we saw a massive amount of violations of that ceasefire,

594
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 8: but it.

595
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 9: Was more lower level violence.

596
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 8: The higher level violence did cease, and I suspect that

597
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 8: we will see the same thing in Gaza. Now, the

598
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,959
Speaker 8: question I think that is really essentially is why did

599
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 8: Trump decide that he wanted this.

600
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 9: If it is.

601
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 8: Because he wants to push for an expansion of the

602
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 8: Abram Accord more normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, then

603
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 8: I don't see how it would be to his interest

604
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 8: to see this only be implemented in stage one. Then

605
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 8: he will likely want to see it fully implemented because

606
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 8: the demands from the Saudis side not only for an

607
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 8: end to the violence, but also some semblance of a

608
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 8: pasting and state has significantly increased because of what Israel

609
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 8: has done.

610
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 9: So I think it very much.

611
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 8: Depends on what Trump's calculations are in the long run.

612
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 1: Right, So that's one of the things that we wanted

613
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 1: to talk to you about. Doctor Parsi is in terms

614
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 1: of the lessons here for Donald Trump but also for

615
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 1: the prior administration. The ability to compel a deal so

616
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 1: quickly tells us a lot about the ability of American

617
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: power to be utilized when it wants to be. So

618
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 1: what can we learn from that going forward with the Israelis?

619
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 1: And I know in your own study of our past

620
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 1: relationship with Israel when we have done this in the past, Well, I.

621
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 8: Think the bottom line is this idea of some sort

622
00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 8: of a beer hulk strategy was the original in here

623
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 8: because instead of actually pursuing us interest, laying down firmly

624
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 8: what we want and what we don't want, and if

625
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 8: these Raelies want to go in a different direction, well

626
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 8: good luck to you, but you're not going to do

627
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 8: it with our weapons. Instead, the Biden illustration had a

628
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 8: strategy of thinking, let's just say yes to everything these

629
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 8: Raelis want. Let's blame every problem on Hamas, even when

630
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 8: it's Israel's fault. Let's make sure that we veto every

631
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 8: resolution at the UN and that miraculously will give us

632
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 8: credibility so that these Raelis actually will listen to us

633
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 8: when we say no, which we nevertheless almost never did. Anyways,

634
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 8: why did the United States need credibility. Did we start

635
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 8: off from a point of no credibility with this rule,

636
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 8: So we had to build up this credibility in order

637
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 8: to be able to afford to say no. That is

638
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 8: just completely preposterous. The United States had credibility, and the

639
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 8: United States never used the leverage through the arm cells

640
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 8: that we had in order to be able to compel

641
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 8: Israel to move in a direction that was not only

642
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 8: not violent international law and committing war crimes, but also

643
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 8: making sure that it didn't.

644
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 9: Lead to something that would be bad for the United States.

645
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 8: And one of the key things the administration itself said

646
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 8: was that it did not want to see an escalation

647
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 8: of the war in the region.

648
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 9: Yet in their exit interviews they.

649
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 8: Brag about the fact that they never publicly criticize the

650
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 8: Biden the Israelis for bombing is Lebanon, for expanding the war.

651
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 8: So I think the bottom line lesson is if you

652
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 8: center your policy on American interests, you're going to get

653
00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 8: a much better outcome. Then if you essentially abdicate your

654
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 8: responsibility to the American people and defer to foreign leaders,

655
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 8: friends or foes, it does not matter.

656
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 2: So doctor Parsi We've just witnessed the world superpower that

657
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 2: was the primary architect of the post World War two

658
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 2: international order oversee a slaughter of predominantly women, children, and

659
00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 2: the elderly.

660
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 3: For over a year. I mean, what does that mean

661
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 3: for the world moving forward.

662
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 9: I think it's a disaster.

663
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 8: And I think one of the things we have to

664
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 8: keep in mind is that, yes, in the American tradition,

665
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 8: though the United States played, as you pointed out, a

666
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 8: critical role in creating the post World War two security

667
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 8: and international architecture, we nevertheless have been kind of dismissive

668
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 8: of international law. And to large extent, it's because we

669
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 8: were so powerful. Not only could we violate it, but

670
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 8: we never really viewed it as being something that could

671
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 8: infringe upon our We would never allow it infringe upon

672
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 8: our sovereignty. Reality is that we are now moving into

673
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 8: a multipolar world. In that multipolar world, the United States

674
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,280
Speaker 8: relative power compared to what it was before, it's not

675
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 8: going to be the same. As a result, the ability

676
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 8: of American power to constrain other countries' rivals of the

677
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 8: United States is going to be more limited than it

678
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 8: was before, and it's not going to be able to

679
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 8: be pervasive as it was before, which means that we

680
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:02,719
Speaker 8: actually will develop an interest in international law as an

681
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 8: alternative path to be able to constrain the actions of

682
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 8: rival streets in a way that we in a unipolar

683
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 8: era did not have the same interest the need for.

684
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,719
Speaker 8: And this is then very damaging to the United States

685
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 8: because we have under the Biden administration, who was supposed

686
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 8: to correct everything Trump did wrong during his four years

687
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 8: by exiting the Paris Agreement, Yvon Deal et cetera, et cetera,

688
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 8: actually work tirelessly to hollow out international law VETO and

689
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 8: all of those Yewan resolutions, the one that they did,

690
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 8: except they then immediately turned around and said that it's

691
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 8: not binding, which was completely legally ridiculous as well. We've

692
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 8: seen their reactions to the ICC, to the ICJ, all

693
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 8: of those different things. I understand from an immediate political interest,

694
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 8: folks on the right and the left may not like,

695
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 8: but in the future world, what we are not going

696
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 8: to be as powerful as we have been in the

697
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 8: last few decades, We're actually going to need some of

698
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 8: those constraints.

699
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 1: I think that's an fantastic point. And just generally going forward,

700
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 1: what does this mean now? For US policy in the

701
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 1: Middle East. The last two years, if we zoom out,

702
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 1: have been extraordinary, not only with what's happening in Israel.

703
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 1: We now have a completely new regime in Syria, of

704
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:13,880
Speaker 1: which of course Israel is also involved in. So what

705
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 1: is the landscape that Donald Trump now has to deal

706
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 1: with in the next four years.

707
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 8: It's a completely different landscape. On the one hand, as

708
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 8: you pointed out, the Turks are in a very significant

709
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 8: rising position because their allies, this al Qaeda offshoot, has

710
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,879
Speaker 8: won in Syria and has taken over that country, which

711
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 8: actually it's interesting. You know, the Turks are now going

712
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 8: to be much stronger rivals of the Banyans, but they're

713
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 8: also bumping up against Israel in Syria. The Israelis have

714
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 8: annexed even more territory of the Syria state, and the

715
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 8: current Syrian leaders are trying to present a view of

716
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 8: unifying Syria being Syria nationalists, which is very interesting giving

717
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 8: that they came from Al Qaeda. Al Qaida was a

718
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 8: movement that viewed itself as universal, that rejected the very

719
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 8: existence of these type of states, rejected the idea that

720
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 8: there should be states of this kind, because there should

721
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 8: just be one Muslim entity in Uma essentially, but now

722
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 8: they are trying to present themselves as Syria nationalists.

723
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:18,399
Speaker 9: Well, how's that going to work out?

724
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 8: When these Raelis are not only keeping the goal on heights,

725
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:24,760
Speaker 8: but they're actually taking additional Syrian territory. At some point

726
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:28,359
Speaker 8: it's going to create tensions between Syria and Israel, which

727
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 8: means that it will create more tensions between Turkey and Israel.

728
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 8: And on the other hand, then you have the Turks

729
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 8: wanting to defeat the Kurds in Syria that the US

730
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 8: has been supporting, and incidentally, it now seems likely that

731
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 8: the Iranians are going to be supporting the Curds further.

732
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 8: And guess who else the Israelis. So what you have

733
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 8: is a massive mess. And I think Trump's initial instinct

734
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 8: when all of this started to unfold, by saying this

735
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,439
Speaker 8: is not our fight, we should not be involved, it

736
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,839
Speaker 8: is the right instinct and take a more passive and

737
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 8: not try to think that, you know, whoever wins in

738
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 8: Syria is going to get some sort of a major price,

739
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 8: because there isn't a major price.

740
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 2: My last question for you, doctor parcis there's been a

741
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:14,840
Speaker 2: lot of speculation about what Trump may have offered the

742
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 2: Israelis in exchange for you know, them agreeing to this

743
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 2: deal that they've been rejecting now for months.

744
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:22,240
Speaker 3: At this point.

745
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:26,879
Speaker 2: You mentioned one of those potential things, the Saudi normalization deal.

746
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 2: Another thing that's been mentioned is West Bank annexation, and

747
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 2: the third thing that's been mentioned is joining with Israel

748
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 2: in strikes against Iran. I'd love for you to weigh

749
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 2: in on that third possibility, your assessment of the likelihood

750
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 2: there and what that could potentially mean, because we know

751
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 2: that Trump did have a very hawkish record vice of

752
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 2: the Israel in his first terms.

753
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 7: Right.

754
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:51,279
Speaker 8: Yeah, First of all, let's be clear, we don't know

755
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 8: yet if actually anything problems. It may very well have

756
00:36:55,200 --> 00:37:00,080
Speaker 8: been that Trump's envoy told Natanyago enough is enough. I

757
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,799
Speaker 8: have fifteen months of these killings and we don't want

758
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 8: to have to deal with this messagey longer. So you

759
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 8: have to put an end to it without necessarily making

760
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 8: any promises. Now, Trump has himself on his social media

761
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 8: suggests that he's going to take advantage of this development

762
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 8: and move towards further integrating Israel into the region. That

763
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 8: could actually be very good news, but it depends on

764
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 8: how it's done, if it's just going to be an

765
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 8: expansion of the abram of course, which in my view

766
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 8: had several significant flaws. The first one being that it

767
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:35,799
Speaker 8: really shoved the palestiniums under the rug, expecting that they

768
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 8: simply would not exist any longer or be a factor.

769
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 8: And that was a major, major miscalculation, because we saw

770
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 8: two or seventh, which to some extent actually was a

771
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 8: result of the effort to completely try to push the

772
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 8: palestadiums society. The other thing was that the United States

773
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 8: was giving massive concessions to these different states in order

774
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 8: for them to normalize with Israel, and in the case

775
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 8: of Saudi Arabia, what the Biden administration has been discussing

776
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:07,919
Speaker 8: is to give a security guarantee to these Saluleis, meaning

777
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:10,439
Speaker 8: that the United States would send its women and men

778
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 8: off to die and kill for.

779
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:13,480
Speaker 9: The Saudi dictatorship.

780
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:18,320
Speaker 8: This would deepen America's military involvement in the region beyond

781
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 8: anything we have seen in the US's history in the

782
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:23,720
Speaker 8: Middle East. That would be not only a massive mistake,

783
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 8: it would be completely contradictory to Trump's instincts and what

784
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 8: he has been promised, which is to actually bring us

785
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 8: troops home from the Middle East and get less entangled

786
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,120
Speaker 8: in the conflicts of the region. If we actually offered

787
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:39,800
Speaker 8: a Saudis a security guarantee, we will get more entangled. Moreover,

788
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 8: the BIDE Admistration was even considering giving these a Saldi's

789
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 8: nuclear technology, the same nuclear technology that the United States

790
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 8: fort twenty years to prevent the Iranians from having. Now

791
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 8: we're actually granting it to a country that has said

792
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 8: that it might build a bomb and whose track record

793
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 8: informed policy is highly questionable, particularly mindful of his history

794
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 8: with al Qaida. These are ridiculous, unthinkable concessions. If it

795
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 8: is so that the Saudis and the Israelis want to normalize,

796
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:11,239
Speaker 8: then go ahead normalize. Why should the United States not

797
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 8: only give concessions but commit them, commit itself to the

798
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 8: security of these states in order for them to come

799
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 8: to peace with each other?

800
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, well said great, See you, Sarah, Thank you for

801
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 1: joining us.

802
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 9: Thank you so much for having.

803
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:30,360
Speaker 2: For more on the Israeli domestic political situation. Hre fortune

804
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 2: to be joined this morning by shil Ben Ephraim. He

805
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:35,840
Speaker 2: is the host of a couple of podcasts with regard

806
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 2: to Israel. Israel Explained and also history in the land

807
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 2: of Israel.

808
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 1: Great to see you, Jail, good to see you.

809
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:43,439
Speaker 7: Thank you. Always a pleasure to be here.

810
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, of course.

811
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:46,359
Speaker 2: So let me go ahead and put guys eight ten

812
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 2: up on the screen to start to break down some

813
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 2: of the internal tensions within the net Nyahuo coalition and

814
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 2: some of the breakdown over this reported ceasefire deal. So

815
00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:59,760
Speaker 2: Smochrich here says, quote, the deal is bad and dangerous

816
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 2: for Israel. Security will remain in the government only if

817
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:06,719
Speaker 2: there is absolute certainty of a return to fighting with

818
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 2: great intensity. So could you tell us some of the

819
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 2: fault lines here within the Natyahuo coalition and whether he

820
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:18,359
Speaker 2: can actually survive politically moving forward with this ceasefire deal.

821
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 7: Yeah, So this has been moving very fast. You know,

822
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 7: if we'd had this interview yesterday, I'd be giving you

823
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 7: a very different answer from what I'd be giving today. So,

824
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 7: as we know, domestic Israeli politics are one of the

825
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 7: major reasons the previous attempt to reach a deal, the

826
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:46,439
Speaker 7: previous very serious attempt to reach a deal from you know,

827
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 7: May until August failed and that's because Natanielle was very

828
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 7: reliant on two extreme right wing parties, one run by

829
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 7: Betzalel smart Rich and the other run by Itamar ben Kvie,

830
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:10,360
Speaker 7: and both of them are opponents of a deal. Now,

831
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 7: over the last few months, Natania has made an effort

832
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 7: to expand his coalition so that he has a little

833
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:24,839
Speaker 7: bit of cushion against their influence. One of the major

834
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 7: reasons for that was so that he would have the

835
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 7: room to be able to make a deal, and he

836
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 7: did that by bringing in Guidon Star's party was a

837
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:41,360
Speaker 7: formerly could minister who then became a member of the opposition,

838
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 7: said he would never sit with Antania and so on

839
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 7: and so forth, and he was he was brought in.

840
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 7: We could also manage to bring in members of the

841
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 7: ben Vere party into the coalition Cohen and Idan Roll

842
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 7: from Ya La Pede's opposite party as well, so he

843
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 7: had a little bit more cushion. And what he managed

844
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 7: to do is he managed to get smot Rich to

845
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 7: say that he would stay in the government if there's

846
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 7: a deal, while Benver threatened to leave. But now there's

847
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 7: been a lot of pressure on smot Rich, much more

848
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:26,879
Speaker 7: than he expected to leave as well, and now he's

849
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:32,440
Speaker 7: leaning towards leavings. So today is in a lot of

850
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 7: trouble because he can't lose both. He can only lose one,

851
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 7: even though he's padded his coalition.

852
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 1: Interesting, so we've seen a bit of a freak out

853
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: inside of Israel. Can we put this next one, for example,

854
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 1: up on the screen just to show the audience and

855
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 1: example of what things look like inside. For for example,

856
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 1: here we have Elon Levy. The biggest boost of global

857
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:56,080
Speaker 1: jihad will come from hamastaging a victory parade him in

858
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:57,640
Speaker 1: the rubble. The free world is going to pay a

859
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 1: terrible price for pressuring Israel to leave the Hamas regime

860
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:03,400
Speaker 1: in power and sort of pressuring Hamas and working to

861
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 1: remove it. So there is certainly a constituency, like you said,

862
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 1: inside of israelits pushing it back against this deal. How

863
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 1: does that influence then Netanyahu's ability to stay in power?

864
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:16,839
Speaker 1: Like you said, if he does lee, if he does

865
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 1: lose two of these members, or even if he does

866
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 1: manage to hang on, he's still got some forty two

867
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 1: days more pressure to resume the war and to continue it.

868
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:25,799
Speaker 1: How what will that look like?

869
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 7: Yeah, So the plan that Nitaniel had was he will

870
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 7: he will pass the deal and then improvise for forty

871
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 7: two days and see what he can do. Now there's

872
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 7: there's a couple of things that could happen. One is

873
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 7: he could have some kind of excuse to break the

874
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:56,919
Speaker 7: ceasefire and Hamas usually don't and here to see spires

875
00:43:56,960 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 7: all that religiously ironically, you know, consider their ideology. And

876
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 7: Israel could find some pretext for restarting the war over

877
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 7: those forty two days. They hope, or Nathaniel was hoping

878
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 7: that Trump might give him some benefit that will allow

879
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 7: him to keep the coalition. For example, annexing West Bank

880
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:27,920
Speaker 7: settlements is something I've heard talk about, or attacking Iran,

881
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 7: either allowing Israel to attack Iran, or even better for

882
00:44:30,600 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 7: Nathaniel's perspective, attacking Iran himself using the US. So then

883
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 7: if you get that, then you can say, well, I

884
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:42,400
Speaker 7: got these benefits in return for the ceasefire. I have

885
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 7: all these achievements. And also now as a matter of

886
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:50,760
Speaker 7: national security, we need to take out the Iranian nuclear program,

887
00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:54,120
Speaker 7: so we need you to stay in the government. And

888
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 7: so Smotrich and Nathaniel have been talking about those sorts

889
00:44:57,560 --> 00:44:59,959
Speaker 7: of things. But Smothering has been under so much press

890
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 7: sure from his own party and from his own like

891
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:06,760
Speaker 7: you said constituency that that that deal is being frayed.

892
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 7: So that has been saying for a long time that

893
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 7: he will be able to restart the war after the

894
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 7: first phase. But that's not what the deal said. The

895
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:20,719
Speaker 7: deals is completely different. The deal says that there will

896
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 7: be negotiations for a second phase and that it will

897
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 7: be reached and that's guaranteed by the mediator, which includes

898
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 7: the United States. So he's this game that he's been

899
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 7: trying to play right now, he's kind of being forced

900
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:39,280
Speaker 7: by public opinion on the right to make a choice,

901
00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:43,160
Speaker 7: and that that's where he is right now. If he

902
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 7: comes out and says there's not going to be a

903
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 7: second phase and we're going to restart the war, then

904
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:52,360
Speaker 7: there's really no reason for Hamas to agree to anything.

905
00:45:54,120 --> 00:46:00,200
Speaker 7: And Hamas also is pausing, you know, problems now with

906
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:07,040
Speaker 7: how how heavy the highest heavy hitting prisoners are going

907
00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 7: to be, how many people they've killed, how well known

908
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:13,399
Speaker 7: they are, And Hamas is also going to play all

909
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:18,279
Speaker 7: sorts of games during the ceasefire. And that's why that

910
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:20,880
Speaker 7: is going to have a pretext. If you want to

911
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 7: say Hamas have broken the ceasefire, Hamas are demanding too

912
00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:29,720
Speaker 7: much and and restart. So really at this point Thatandel

913
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:32,239
Speaker 7: is going to have to choose does he want the

914
00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:38,720
Speaker 7: wrath of Trump or does he want his coalition to

915
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:41,840
Speaker 7: to collapse most which is putting him in that position.

916
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 7: And that's why we're starting to see Nathaniel start to

917
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 7: backtrack from the deal. Yeah, that's why we're we haven't

918
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:51,440
Speaker 7: seen anthanielle come out and say we've reached the deal.

919
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 7: I'm happy that.

920
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 2: Let me actually jump in on that, because that is

921
00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 2: the latest reporting his office put on a state saying

922
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 2: Hamas's renegging on the understandings and creating a last minute

923
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 2: crisis that is preventing an agreement, so giving himself a

924
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:09,359
Speaker 2: pretext to potentially back out of the deal and lay

925
00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 2: the blame at the feet of Hamas. There's also the

926
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:16,319
Speaker 2: Jerusalem Post reporting that he's sort of playing fast and

927
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 2: loose with some of the terms of the deal. So

928
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:22,799
Speaker 2: he's saying, contrary to misleading reports, Israel's not withdrawing from

929
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 2: the Philadelphi Corridor. Israel will remain in Phase A of

930
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 2: the quarter for the entire.

931
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 3: Forty two day period.

932
00:47:28,320 --> 00:47:30,879
Speaker 2: That's different from the terms of the deal as has

933
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:35,279
Speaker 2: been publicly reported. In addition, he's saying no end to

934
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:37,920
Speaker 2: the war until Hamas agrees to Israel quote achieving the

935
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:41,320
Speaker 2: wars objectives of destroying Hamas as a militant group, disarming Gaza,

936
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 2: and deposing the local government. There's very small likelihood Hamas

937
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:48,719
Speaker 2: would agree to a deal that includes requirements of their

938
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:51,920
Speaker 2: own destruction. So, you know, do you think that this

939
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:54,200
Speaker 2: deal even ultimately goes forward?

940
00:47:54,200 --> 00:47:55,560
Speaker 3: What do you make of this.

941
00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:58,480
Speaker 2: Last minute squeamishness and the fact, as you said, that

942
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:00,120
Speaker 2: Phoebe himself has not come out and said.

943
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,760
Speaker 3: Hey, congratulations, there we have a deal. We're moving forward

944
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 3: with us.

945
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 7: Yeah. So did the real problem here separating the normal

946
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 7: shall we say, Middle Eastern last minute negotiation tactics which

947
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:22,360
Speaker 7: are always like this, and the coalition crisis in Israel.

948
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 7: It's very hard to separate those two. There's a certain

949
00:48:25,000 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 7: amount of brinkmanship that goes into the last minute of

950
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:31,799
Speaker 7: any hostage deal that looks a lot like what we're

951
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 7: seeing now. And then there's also the internal political squabbling

952
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 7: that has actually prevented previous deals, and to some extent,

953
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 7: they also serve each other. The internal tensions also allow

954
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 7: Israel to demand more and get it in the last

955
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:58,000
Speaker 7: minute from Hamas, So there's a little bit of that

956
00:48:58,200 --> 00:49:01,319
Speaker 7: going on. But also it's important to note that Daniel

957
00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:04,719
Speaker 7: is not exactly lying in what he's saying. What he's

958
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 7: doing is what is he's trying to pretend that there's

959
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 7: no phase two. In Phase one, Israel does remain in

960
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:17,760
Speaker 7: the Philadelphia carridor in phase two, it's it removes itself

961
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 7: from there. So what he's saying is he's pretending that

962
00:49:20,120 --> 00:49:23,839
Speaker 7: only Phase one exists and Phase one doesn't, which also

963
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:28,040
Speaker 7: serves him in his negotiations with with Smooth Rich, who

964
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 7: says that he's willing to stay through phase one. So

965
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:35,799
Speaker 7: there's a there's some improvisation here and and pretense. And

966
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:39,799
Speaker 7: as for destruction of Hummaus, that's not in the agreement,

967
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 7: as you noted, no ordering to agree to destroy themselves.

968
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:46,439
Speaker 7: And that's a game that he played last time when

969
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:49,480
Speaker 7: he scuttled it as well, he said you know that

970
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 7: he's not going to stop until Hamas is destroyed. So

971
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:57,839
Speaker 7: it's very hard to separate between the two. So as

972
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 7: for will the deal go forward, my guess is yes.

973
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 7: I would have been much more optimistic yesterday. I think

974
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:08,360
Speaker 7: that it's a little bit out of his hands. I

975
00:50:08,440 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 7: think that once everyone's announced it, once the sides of agreed,

976
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 7: once Trump has put his prestige into it, if he

977
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:22,320
Speaker 7: breaks it, the price will be quite high. His best

978
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:28,600
Speaker 7: chance for re election might be to stay with Trump,

979
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:31,399
Speaker 7: stay with this deal, get as much as he can

980
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:36,799
Speaker 7: from Trump improvised through the first stage, and hope that

981
00:50:36,840 --> 00:50:40,279
Speaker 7: he can either get Hamas to break it in a

982
00:50:40,320 --> 00:50:44,319
Speaker 7: way that can convince Trump, or that Trump will offer

983
00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:48,200
Speaker 7: him enough so that he can come and say to

984
00:50:48,280 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 7: the public, look at all that I achieved. And it's

985
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:53,560
Speaker 7: important to note that both Ben Clear and Smotage are

986
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 7: saying we're leaving the government, but we're not going to

987
00:50:56,960 --> 00:51:01,719
Speaker 7: vote to topple it. And at the opposition, the left

988
00:51:01,719 --> 00:51:05,239
Speaker 7: wing opposition or you know, such as it is, centrist whatever, yeah,

989
00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:09,239
Speaker 7: are saying that they will provide a safety net for Nathanielle.

990
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:11,720
Speaker 7: So even if Ben Gear and smothers to leave the government,

991
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:14,520
Speaker 7: the government's not going to fall, at least not yet.

992
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 7: They have a minority government, which is very weird in Israel,

993
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:20,960
Speaker 7: but it's possible. And then if he gets enough, he

994
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:23,080
Speaker 7: might be able to get someone else to come in

995
00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:26,799
Speaker 7: and get a majority again. So if I was him

996
00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:29,840
Speaker 7: facing these two things, I would take the deal and

997
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 7: try to get as much from Trump and then try

998
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 7: to re establish my coalition with other parties or bring

999
00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:38,880
Speaker 7: ben Gira Smotriz back in. And I'm guessing that's what

1000
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:41,520
Speaker 7: he's going to do. And so he's gonna try to

1001
00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 7: get as many concessions as he can. Go to the deal,

1002
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:48,319
Speaker 7: stay in the government. They'll survive because no one's going

1003
00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 7: to topple him in the meantime because he has a

1004
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:52,480
Speaker 7: safety net, and then he'll improvise and find a way

1005
00:51:52,520 --> 00:51:54,800
Speaker 7: to survive. Nathaniel always finds a way to survive.

1006
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's a fair bet. Generally, thank you so much.

1007
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 2: It's always so useful to have your analysis.

1008
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:02,759
Speaker 1: We appreciate you, Johns, appreciate you man.

1009
00:52:02,760 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 7: Thank you anytime, have a onon full bit.