WEBVTT - Surveillance: International Relations With Haass 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:09.200 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane along 0:00:09.240 --> 0:00:13.200 with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jailey. We bring you 0:00:13.320 --> 0:00:18.600 insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.840 Find Bloomberg Surveillance an Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, 0:00:23.920 --> 0:00:30.440 and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Let's bring it 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:32.920 down and proud about chief US economist and head of 0:00:32.920 --> 0:00:36.000 markets three sixty North America down this Wednesday, we'll hear 0:00:36.040 --> 0:00:38.360 from the President. We'll hear from Chaman Pal as well. 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:40.800 If you kind of have a preview of one, what 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:44.840 would you pick the chairman of the President? No, definitely, 0:00:44.920 --> 0:00:47.519 I think on the fete side, this is about as 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:49.879 well telegraphed the meeting as we can get, so it 0:00:49.880 --> 0:00:52.840 should be a pretty sleepy wait and see a meeting 0:00:53.000 --> 0:00:55.760 so big. All eyes instead are on the President and 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:58.680 how he's going to try and pitch his really ambitious 0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:04.479 plans on everything from infrastructure to taxes to climate. Dan, 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:06.600 I love your your backdrop. You look like you're in 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:09.560 the Endeavor space caps along your way to the stage 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:12.839 this morning, Dan, I want to talk to you about 0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:17.440 the idea of we're retchinging up GDP expectations. Is GDP 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:20.959 catching up with the zeitgeist? Are we behind and we're 0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:24.000 gonna have to catch up with a boom economy? Now? 0:01:24.040 --> 0:01:27.760 I think of recent forecasts really are cashing up. You know, 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:30.959 we're calling for near double digit and so double digit 0:01:31.040 --> 0:01:33.560 two two and then near double digit two three. Uh, 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:36.720 it's gonna be a great looking a couple of months. 0:01:37.120 --> 0:01:39.040 But as we're just saying earlier, the fett is pretty 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:41.760 much said they're going to look past that um and 0:01:41.800 --> 0:01:44.720 I think market should should understand that as well. The 0:01:44.760 --> 0:01:47.760 real question is beyond the summer, after we get this 0:01:48.080 --> 0:01:50.880 reopening driven boost, you know, how long is this going 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:53.760 to sustain? And so. And there's also a question of 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:56.680 the inflationary aspects that we see. Tom was talking about 0:01:56.720 --> 0:01:59.640 how we're seeing copper searched the highest level since two 0:01:59.680 --> 0:02:02.240 thousand eleven. We're seeing crop prices in the United States 0:02:02.480 --> 0:02:05.120 sword to the highest in two thousand thirteen. How can 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:08.280 we call this transitory? If this seems to have legs, 0:02:08.280 --> 0:02:10.280 if people seem to be saying that they could see 0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:13.120 prices continue to rise and at least not fall substantially 0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:16.679 from here. Yeah, I think that's the big question. Um. 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:20.200 And definitely prices are going up. We saw really a 0:02:20.320 --> 0:02:25.200 strong March inflation print at zero point three percent month 0:02:25.240 --> 0:02:28.640 a month or four UM. But is this all pricing 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:31.800 increases that are big one off driven by not just 0:02:31.919 --> 0:02:35.800 reopening but all the supply ten issues. You know, we 0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:40.079 we are hearing about semiconductor shortages of spreading beyond automobiles 0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:43.400 to all kinds of appliances that you know, is this 0:02:43.840 --> 0:02:47.720 gonna work itself out? Or is this actually going to 0:02:47.880 --> 0:02:49.880 change what I think to be the key thing here, 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:53.079 which is expectations. Are people now going to start expecting 0:02:53.160 --> 0:02:57.120 more higher prices and then perhaps demanding higher wages depoplacy 0:02:57.480 --> 0:02:59.720 the story on sound of the labor market to the 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:02.280 small wanting is in the airline situation, Tom, I just 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:04.000 want to bring up some of the airlines right now. Dutch. 0:03:04.000 --> 0:03:07.959 Your Luftanza over in Germany leading nicely, a i g. 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:10.880 The parent company of British Airways doing nicely as well. 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:14.360 This conversation to this morning about the EU Commission President 0:03:14.400 --> 0:03:16.520 erslavon de Land speaking to the New York Times. Team 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:20.200 up US travelers going into Europe. Maybe that travel can 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:22.400 happen later this summer. She's just picking it up from 0:03:22.480 --> 0:03:24.760 John Ferrell. John, you've been out on this and I 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:27.840 know we talked about Singapore, Hong Kong and other quarters 0:03:27.960 --> 0:03:30.120 or bubbles whatever they call it. John, do you think 0:03:30.120 --> 0:03:31.920 it's feasible? I mean, you're the only one of us 0:03:31.960 --> 0:03:34.560 three who's actually traveled. Well, I've got three things to 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:36.480 say about this. Matt Miller brought up one of them 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:39.600 earlier this morning. Can Verse Slavon de Land actually made 0:03:39.600 --> 0:03:43.560 this decision for the EU? One too? Can we actually 0:03:43.600 --> 0:03:46.760 have a system in place, some kind of vaccine passport 0:03:46.800 --> 0:03:51.160 certificate system in place that every country understands. And three 0:03:51.800 --> 0:03:54.680 look at the specific words Li Sir, that the EU 0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:58.840 commission leader actually used. She was talking about vaccines that 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:01.640 were accepted in the EU but also accepted in the 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:04.480 United States. Now, first engineer that because as far as 0:04:04.480 --> 0:04:07.440 I understand, astra zeneca is not approved in the US. 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:09.360 So if you've had an astra zeneca vaccine and you 0:04:09.400 --> 0:04:11.400 live in Europe, can you travel to the US if 0:04:11.440 --> 0:04:13.720 that's going to be the agreement later this summer? Yeah? 0:04:13.760 --> 0:04:15.400 Is that the issue? Or is this just an issue 0:04:15.400 --> 0:04:18.159 to try to prevent the Chinese vaccinations for being applicable 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:20.680 to some of these travel guidelines. And then of course 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:22.760 there's a question from a health perspective, and we're gonna 0:04:22.760 --> 0:04:25.160 be getting that Daniel on. Just to wrap up with you, 0:04:25.240 --> 0:04:27.360 one question a lot of people have is how much 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:30.159 can the US accelerate without the rest of the world 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:33.280 joining the feed here given a fact that we're seeing 0:04:33.279 --> 0:04:35.880 the acceleration in India and Brazil, some of the fastest 0:04:35.920 --> 0:04:39.480 growing economies in the world, No, I think the acceleration 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:42.280 is going to be broader based. Certainly the US is 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:45.680 at the vanguard here, both in terms of vaccination kind 0:04:45.680 --> 0:04:48.480 of driven reopening hopes, uh and in terms of this 0:04:48.600 --> 0:04:52.120 whole spending um. But one of our key messages has 0:04:52.160 --> 0:04:55.479 been that Europe is not far behind in terms of vaccination. 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:58.239 They're going to go through They're gonna they are, I believe, 0:04:58.279 --> 0:05:01.839 working out their supply chain issue this on fascination distribution. 0:05:02.400 --> 0:05:07.080 So they're gonna see a nice um reopening. Taking back 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:09.760 to in our forecasts starting in point when you two, 0:05:10.040 --> 0:05:12.480 we have your brointh after in the US, So it's 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:16.800 gonna be broader based um. And yeah, I think the 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:20.000 again the question is how much, however, is it's going 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:22.640 to be sustained as beyond the sharp end of the 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:25.800 V shaped recovery. Um is are we gonna go back 0:05:25.839 --> 0:05:28.839 to the same kind of decades long authentification trends we've 0:05:28.839 --> 0:05:33.520 seen advanced economies prior to the pandemic? Or is this 0:05:33.600 --> 0:05:36.159 really the start of something new? Down it's gonna catch up, 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:43.600 It's gonna see it down on that bamp pant right now. 0:05:43.680 --> 0:05:46.720 Richard has joints President the Council on Foreign Relations. My 0:05:46.800 --> 0:05:49.880 book of the summer last year and still hugely important, 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:53.640 if not more so now, The World A brief introduction 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:56.200 by the hardcover Hopefully you'll hit the head of the 0:05:56.279 --> 0:05:59.640 smart mouth adolescent when you say, shut up and read this. 0:05:59.720 --> 0:06:04.280 It is extremely important. The first hundred pages is truly classic. 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:08.920 Highly highly recommend hosses The World, Richard hass I love 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:11.320 what you people have done as you look back at 0:06:11.320 --> 0:06:14.640 our history and our concert of power in honor of 0:06:14.720 --> 0:06:19.240 John Williamson in a more collegial Washington consensus. How do 0:06:19.279 --> 0:06:23.679 we get from Williamson's Washington Consensus to a more rigid 0:06:23.960 --> 0:06:29.160 concert of power? Well, we can talk about it internationally. 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:33.280 This is simply my thinking that current international arrangements are 0:06:33.279 --> 0:06:35.839 coming up short term and what we need to think 0:06:35.839 --> 0:06:38.680 of some ways of working with countries that are ideologically 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:42.040 and politically and economically diverse from us, but we still 0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:44.400 have to work together, whether it's on climate change, or 0:06:44.480 --> 0:06:48.680 regulating cyberspace, or dealing with proliferation, you name it. Basically 0:06:48.720 --> 0:06:51.720 the defining challenges of this Europe and again right now 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.120 there's a big gap between where we are and every 0:06:54.120 --> 0:06:56.800 single one of these domains and where we need to be. 0:06:57.040 --> 0:06:59.240 I got a monograph from the mail Richard hass the 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:02.359 one Years of the Counsul and Foreign Relations. I'm going 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:04.920 to read it cover to cover. It's actually really really 0:07:05.040 --> 0:07:07.520 interesting in the arch of a hundred years of the 0:07:07.520 --> 0:07:11.880 Council and Foreign Relations is our politics is every four years. 0:07:12.440 --> 0:07:15.440 That's not the case in China. How do we do 0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:18.680 a concert of power when we've got a four year 0:07:18.720 --> 0:07:22.280 time frame and President she has a many, many decade 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:26.640 time frame. Fair enough, each country has it's not just 0:07:26.720 --> 0:07:28.600 its own system, as you say, but we have our 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:32.680 own strengths and weaknesses. China's weakness is that it's very 0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:36.360 hard to challenge orthodoxy when their mistakes made such there 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:38.920 was with the one child policies such as there's been 0:07:38.960 --> 0:07:42.840 with environmental policy. It's incredibly hard to correct those mistakes 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:46.400 right now. China is committed in certain directions. We'll see 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:48.920 how it works out, but there's there's repression at home. 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:51.880 Can they be that repressive at home and still introduce 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:55.880 new new ideas They're they're pushing out against the world, 0:07:56.120 --> 0:07:59.040 And the question is can they continue to benefit from 0:07:59.080 --> 0:08:02.560 economic inter action at the same time they're alienating much 0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:06.440 of the world by their more assertive foreign policy. Yes, us, 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:09.480 we've got all our known mistakes are political weaknesses, are 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:12.920 political division, and I think there's real questions about whether 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:16.760 or how well we can perform over time. But taking 0:08:16.800 --> 0:08:19.400 a step back, the real question is whether the United 0:08:19.440 --> 0:08:22.680 States and China can figure out a way to find 0:08:22.760 --> 0:08:26.640 areas or pockets of cooperation against the backdrop of a 0:08:26.680 --> 0:08:30.760 competitive relationship that does not actually become conflictual. Although people 0:08:30.760 --> 0:08:32.520 are saying that the only way that the United States 0:08:32.559 --> 0:08:34.400 can truly do this is if it gets some sort 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:37.079 of group of allies on board with it. In terms 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:40.120 of how it counters China. Given your experience on your 0:08:40.160 --> 0:08:42.520 tenure at the State Department, your knowledge of the key 0:08:42.559 --> 0:08:45.560 people who are at play here, how is Biden doing 0:08:45.640 --> 0:08:49.480 with respect to unifying the allies, Well, it's gonna be tough. 0:08:49.520 --> 0:08:51.880 One is, we've heard ourselves by not getting involved in 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:55.960 regional economic arrangements. That's an own goal, that's a major 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:58.839 source of potential leverage. But I think in general that 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:02.120 the instinct that the all doction of this president is 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:06.120 to work with allies Japan, South Korea, India. I think 0:09:06.160 --> 0:09:09.120 we've heard ourselves with India by the slowness of our 0:09:09.160 --> 0:09:14.440 response on vaccines. India is more fundamentally somewhat reluctant to 0:09:14.520 --> 0:09:19.319 align itself against China. The Europeans, as you know, have 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:21.480 kind of going their own way. Used to be China 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:25.080 with their with their own economic and financial arrangements. So 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:27.440 the rhetoric has been better in some ways than the 0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:31.160 reality of forging a common front against China. Richard, I'm 0:09:31.160 --> 0:09:32.960 glad that you brought up India because I've been thinking 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:35.199 a lot about this. Why hasn't the US gone more 0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:37.800 aggressively into helping India Given the fact that the pace 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:40.520 of vaccinations in the US has slowed, that the supply 0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:44.760 is pretty significant versus the population. How much has that 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:47.520 set back the United States? And what is the push 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:50.000 pull here in terms of why the US hasn't been 0:09:50.000 --> 0:09:54.439 more aggressive. Look, I've been railing on against this now 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:58.319 for for weeks. This administration quite honestly, has been more 0:09:58.360 --> 0:10:02.360 America first, unchill essentially and its approach to vaccines than 0:10:02.480 --> 0:10:04.800 it ought to be. It makes no sense in terms 0:10:04.840 --> 0:10:08.080 of health because of the variance, and makes no health obviously, 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:11.000 as you pointed out, strategically, how do we bring into 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:12.760 your closer to us if we're not there for them 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:16.400 at a crisis. Just yesterday belatedly United States began to 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:19.240 move in that direction. But my guess is the administration 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:22.400 but legitimately wants to make sure that Americans are vaccinated, 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:26.320 and perhaps more questionably, has been worried about being attacked 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:29.600 from the right over not taking care of Americans before 0:10:29.600 --> 0:10:31.920 it's helping the rest of the world, even though the 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:34.360 fundament the point is when we help the rest of 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:38.120 the world, we help ourselves. Ambassador has quietly at the 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:41.160 end of your wonderful book The World, you have a 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:45.520 trench in phrase war within countries. Boy, does that ring home? 0:10:45.880 --> 0:10:49.400 Where there's Chad and the death of their presidency supposedly 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:52.839 on the front lines of their war with the Islamis extremists, 0:10:52.880 --> 0:10:55.720 or the war within America as well. How do we 0:10:55.800 --> 0:11:00.920 get out of our wars within countries? Tom, I don't 0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:03.360 know the answer to that question, but I think the 0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:06.600 answer to it will decide a lot of history. Take 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:10.240 the United States, wait, for seventy five years, have been 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:13.840 the principal architect and in some ways the general contractor 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:16.200 of what organization in order have been in the world. 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:19.720 But that's assumed that there was a sufficient degree of 0:11:19.760 --> 0:11:22.320 consensus in the United States that we could do what 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:24.600 we're doing in the world. If that consensus is no 0:11:24.720 --> 0:11:29.520 longer there, if we don't have the bandwidth, the resources, 0:11:30.000 --> 0:11:33.120 the commonality of purpose to play that role in the world, 0:11:33.920 --> 0:11:35.839 history is going to move in a very different direction. 0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:38.040 And then something that the CFR has provide a great 0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:41.520 leadership on, as of course attentions between Armenia and Turkey 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:47.880 and Mr Biden providing decade long and multiple president leadership 0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:51.080 to state I believe the I don't want to get 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:54.360 in trouble here, but state the obvious of nineteen fifteen. 0:11:54.559 --> 0:11:58.240 What does President Biden in the Secretary of State signal 0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:02.079 with this historic decision. Two things. One is that this 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:06.400 administration has placed human rights type consideration really high on 0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:10.320 the agenda, particularly compared to its predecessor. Second of all, 0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:13.880 it's a real sign just how far relations with Turkey 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:17.920 have deteriorated, and over over decades we were reluctant to 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:20.760 take this step. I was involved in these conversations myself 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:23.440 at the State Department and elsewhere, And what essentially now 0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:26.520 is people are saying this relationship isn't that valuable with 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:29.400 nan As a result, there is not a lot of downside. 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:33.000 Just guess what, we've already got the downside, Richard, Just 0:12:33.120 --> 0:12:35.080 to sort of some up this around in the world 0:12:35.120 --> 0:12:37.640 in any days with Richard hases there is a question 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:39.480 of which hotspot is the one we should be paying 0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:42.800 attention to the most right now. Originally it was China, 0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:44.760 the US and the Biden administration was going to be 0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:47.319 the key test. That seems to have faded a bit. 0:12:47.559 --> 0:12:49.920 Is that wrong or is that sort of the focus 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:53.959 moved onward to another spot. Look, if you'd asked me 0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:55.880 that last week, I probably would have said something with 0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:58.520 Russian and Ukraine that seems to have come. I still 0:12:58.600 --> 0:13:01.559 think China in the US, though strategically the biggest hot 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:04.880 spot There's any number of other places which could be problematic, 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:07.920 but the single biggest fault line in the world is 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:11.520 the United States and China and possibly over Taiwan. And 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:13.839 the real question is can these two countries, the U. 0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:17.840 S And China continue to finesse the disagreement that they 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:21.439 have successfully managed for forty years, but China seems to 0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:25.319 be getting inpatient and can we continue to prevent this 0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:28.640 from becoming a front page crisis. I don't know the 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:30.480 answer to that. One of the issues at the moment 0:13:30.520 --> 0:13:32.800 of phone policy, maybe the issue Richard House is gonna 0:13:32.800 --> 0:13:34.600 catch up as always, He's gonna hear from your counsel 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:42.200 on form relations. President. What we try to do here 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:45.559 as surveillance is bringing you definitive authorities on whatever the 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:47.480 topic is his hand. We can do that with g G. 0:13:47.600 --> 0:13:51.840 Grandville Johns Hopkins out of biology at Indiana University, out 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:55.679 of chemistry at Memorial Sloan Cuttering in New York and 0:13:55.800 --> 0:14:00.959 holding court on security and immunology at the Johns Hopkins University. Gigi, 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:03.280 thank you so much for joining us. You have done 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:06.280 tours of duty and Delhi. You've done tours of duty 0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:09.840 in India. Take us away from the sanitized media shots 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:14.439 to the reality of the horror we're seeing in India. Yes, 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:18.200 I um, I mean it's really hard to describe and imagine. Um. 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:22.040 But you know, India has a lot more capability than 0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:24.600 I think a lot of people realize. And the fact 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:28.240 that that their hospitals are so overwhelmed speaks to just 0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:31.640 how many cases they have and how much of a 0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:35.280 humanitarian crisis is turning out to be. Tell us about 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:38.080 the roads out of Delhi, the roads out of Mumbai. 0:14:38.400 --> 0:14:41.120 Certainly in my reading, it is an urban and rural 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:45.480 disaster outside of the big cities. What does India look 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:49.680 like in a horrific pandemic? So it's a lot there's 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:53.480 a lot of rural spots in India, um. And it's uh, 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:56.480 you know, in the cities are are crowded, more crowded 0:14:56.520 --> 0:14:58.920 than um. Well, I mean in New York you're used 0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:01.640 to but but most people in the US are not. 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:05.840 And with every kind of traffic conveyance um that you know, 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:10.280 for elephants, donkeys, motorcycles, it's it's a busy spot. Um. 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:13.480 So I think there's a lot of in the air 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:17.040 quality is probably not helping people at all either. Because 0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:19.960 that's always been a problem in world and in the 0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:23.240 in the city area. So um, yeah, it's it's not 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:26.600 it's not good, and so it's really fantastic that the 0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:29.360 US is offering to help. Hopefully they will get other 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:32.680 countries to contribute some humanitarian aid as well. The difference 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:35.240 in the conversation that we're having around India and the 0:15:35.320 --> 0:15:37.680 rest of the world, including US and Europe this morning 0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:40.680 could not be starker. We're talking about a humanitarian crisis 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:42.760 in India and we're talking about what travel might look 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:44.400 like for people who want to go on vacation late 0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:47.760 to this summer between Europe and the United States. Dot 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:50.280 to forgive me for having that conversation with you. Now 0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:52.560 to follow one from this one, what on Earth does 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:57.320 travel look like this summer? I think, Um, if you're vaccinated, 0:15:57.680 --> 0:16:01.080 I think that you can be very confident that that 0:16:01.280 --> 0:16:04.280 you are are protected. But it's best to not try 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:07.000 to try to not take your vaccine out for a spin. 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:08.920 I mean, it would be really great to not have 0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:12.640 to use it to get infected. And so um, I 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:14.840 think you know, if you can, if you can manage 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:17.640 to avoid the kind of crowds and exposures to people 0:16:17.680 --> 0:16:20.640 who may be infected. That would be the best idea. Um, 0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:22.640 you know, I think it's going to be different for 0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:26.280 every family for what they what they do. But um, 0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:29.480 but you know, get vaccinated first and allow yourself time 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:32.480 to build up immunity. Doctor. This interview with The New 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:35.240 York Times for the European Commission President vonder Land got 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:37.520 my attention for one reason. It was this line here. 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:40.240 Because one thing is clear, all twenty seven member states 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:43.520 will accept unconditionally all those who are vaccinated with vaccines 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:46.360 that are approved by the e M A. Doctor. There 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:48.880 are certain vaccines that have been approved in certain vaccines 0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:50.560 that have not been approved, And I just wonder a 0:16:50.600 --> 0:16:53.280 week and to have some kind of hierarchy of vaccines 0:16:53.560 --> 0:16:57.680 pretty much well established in the next couple of months. Yes, Um, 0:16:58.080 --> 0:17:02.160 that's inevitable when you have multiple products. Um. But I think, uh, 0:17:02.360 --> 0:17:05.520 you know, for for US citizens, I think it's our 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:08.239 US people who are getting vaccinated in the US. Um, 0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:12.240 it's going to be less of an issue internationally because 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:15.240 the two the two vaccines that most people are getting, 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:18.640 and now with the Johnson Johnson they they will be acceptable. 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:23.040 Dr Gronville, forgive me for being a bit dr doom here. 0:17:23.280 --> 0:17:26.000 But is this an epidemiological nightmare setting up that we 0:17:26.080 --> 0:17:29.920 have a certain level of vaccinations that's good but not great, 0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:32.680 not critical mass around the world, and people are starting 0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:35.360 to travel internationally at a time when you've got pockets 0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:39.040 of just burgeoning virus basically asking for mutations, for more 0:17:39.160 --> 0:17:42.680 variance and possibly even vaccine resistant strains. I mean, how 0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:45.400 much of an issue does this become as we enter 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:49.960 the traveling season. Well, I mean, given how bad things 0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:51.879 have been over the last year, I'm not convinced that 0:17:51.920 --> 0:17:54.280 a lot of people have stopped traveling or stopped doing 0:17:54.359 --> 0:17:56.440 the things that they were supposed to be doing. So 0:17:57.200 --> 0:18:01.480 um I I um, I guess I'm I've been not 0:18:01.920 --> 0:18:04.400 My optimism is rooted in the fact that I think 0:18:04.440 --> 0:18:07.600 people have uh not been following all the things that 0:18:07.720 --> 0:18:10.000 people have been telling to do. Anyway, But I mean, 0:18:10.040 --> 0:18:13.800 there's nothing magical about any of these variants. You need to, um, 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:16.720 we know how to stop your to stop getting it affected, 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:18.600 you need to have a mask, you need to have 0:18:18.760 --> 0:18:22.560 good air quality, try and do social distancing. That is all. 0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:26.560 The vaccines are are an additional wonderful tool that will 0:18:26.600 --> 0:18:29.159 protect you but um, we just you know, we need 0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:32.760 to to keep with all of the messages and travel 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:35.560 um is you know, I think it's it's something people 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:39.040 have been doing and hopefully people can do it safely 0:18:39.160 --> 0:18:42.359 and we can have more engineered controls so that, um, 0:18:42.560 --> 0:18:45.480 you know, air quality can be better and reduce transmission. 0:18:45.760 --> 0:18:47.560 That said, do you think that there should be certain 0:18:47.600 --> 0:18:50.160 travel bands in place, or that it's advisable for certain 0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:53.239 countries to say, well, travelers from India and Brazil are 0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:55.879 our no goes for right now, or or things like that. 0:18:57.000 --> 0:19:00.119 I think vaccination campaigns should be ramped up, even them 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:02.639 more than they are now. But because you're right, um, 0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:05.879 every every time somebody is infected, it's an opportunity for 0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:09.240 a variant to emerge, and thankfully all of the variants 0:19:09.680 --> 0:19:13.879 are covered right now by the vaccination. So um, we 0:19:14.000 --> 0:19:16.960 just need to keep boosting that up and borrow some 0:19:17.080 --> 0:19:20.680 trouble later when we might have to have a booster shot. Doctor. 0:19:20.720 --> 0:19:23.560 Thank you, it's gonna catch up. Come back soon, Dr Gronfell. 0:19:23.600 --> 0:19:27.360 That John's hulking sensea for the health security Sadia Scara, 0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:36.480 you do the diet check and I'll disrupt it. Come on, okay, 0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:38.680 I'll do the data check. Yields are up, the real 0:19:38.800 --> 0:19:45.320 yield negative zero point seven. Thank you. No one cares. Okay, 0:19:45.440 --> 0:19:47.720 no one cares. There we go, there's your data check 0:19:47.800 --> 0:19:52.359 on radio. And this morning all we care about is 0:19:52.400 --> 0:19:55.840 getting Detroitsky. We've bet a lot of talk about, including 0:19:55.920 --> 0:19:59.520 John and Lisa riveted by Gayski's bitcoin call. He is 0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:02.800 with sky Bridge in their co chief investment officer, Troy. 0:20:02.880 --> 0:20:06.600 The hedge funds are addicted to big technology. We've seen 0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:09.800 that through every cycle. I'm reading that hedge funds are 0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:14.119 doing better. What is the linkage of alternative investments to 0:20:14.280 --> 0:20:18.280 four or five big technology names. Yeah, you know, it's 0:20:18.280 --> 0:20:20.720 actually interesting you bring that up, Tom, because there has 0:20:20.800 --> 0:20:26.239 been rotation, particularly back into Facebook and Amazon, less so Apple. Uh. 0:20:26.520 --> 0:20:29.480 Many hedge funds went long growth coming out of the 0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:32.960 pandemic and then focus and switched their focus to cyclical 0:20:33.040 --> 0:20:35.880 recovery UM and now you see that moving back given 0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:38.720 that valuations have come down as much as they have, 0:20:39.119 --> 0:20:42.560 so certainly the dominance and the big five names will 0:20:42.560 --> 0:20:44.520 be more important the next three months than they were 0:20:44.560 --> 0:20:46.920 the last four. But if you drill down to a 0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:50.560 subsector within technology that we find very fascinating. We look 0:20:50.600 --> 0:20:53.480 through the holdings of our underlying managers, we find that 0:20:53.640 --> 0:20:57.000 semi conduct your equipment right now is particularly compelling because 0:20:57.119 --> 0:21:02.840 valuations are semi connector equipment application um because valuations are 0:21:03.000 --> 0:21:06.720 very reasonable, and those are both cyclical recovery stories and 0:21:07.000 --> 0:21:10.399 secular growth stories. And plus there's a play on the 0:21:10.440 --> 0:21:14.200 continued nationalization or divergence of the economy between the US 0:21:14.760 --> 0:21:17.040 and UH in China, because if you look at what 0:21:17.119 --> 0:21:20.879 happened to Intel, which lost its lead for a manufacturing 0:21:20.920 --> 0:21:24.520 of very thin films and and and very high high 0:21:24.600 --> 0:21:27.680 potency processors, you can't allow that to happen in semi 0:21:27.720 --> 0:21:30.880 connector fabrication equipment. So when we drill down into tech, 0:21:30.960 --> 0:21:33.160 we think that's a pretty compelling space that hedge funds 0:21:33.160 --> 0:21:35.240 are starting to rotate into right now. Troy, I'm doing 0:21:35.280 --> 0:21:37.280 my best Tom Kane impression today, and usually when I 0:21:37.359 --> 0:21:39.320 get the first question to a guest, they totally ignores 0:21:39.359 --> 0:21:41.119 it and stance with something else with no follow up. 0:21:41.160 --> 0:21:43.160 So I'm going to do that right now. But let's 0:21:43.160 --> 0:21:46.280 talk about bitcoin. Last time we spoke, you'd allowed that 0:21:46.359 --> 0:21:49.879