1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,680 Speaker 1: From UFOs to psychic powers and government conspiracies. History is 2 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 1: riddled with unexplained events. You can turn back now or 3 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:12,079 Speaker 1: learn the stuff they don't want you to know. A 4 00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 1: production of I Heart Radio. Hello, welcome back to the show. 5 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 1: My name is Matt, my name is Noah. They called 6 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 1: me Ben. We are joined as always with our super producer, 7 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 1: all mission control decond Most importantly, you are you. You 8 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 1: are here, and that makes this stuff they don't want 9 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 1: you to know. We've often said in earlier episodes that 10 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 1: history hinges on the smallest things, and this is true 11 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: in fact. You know, if you think about it, you 12 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: could describe this story of humanity as a series of 13 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: terrifying close calls. Uh. Did you guys ever hear about this? 14 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 1: Ain't sent population bottleneck? No, please tell us right now, 15 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 1: We've got a little less than eight billion people on 16 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 1: the planet, right Uh, and everybody agrees it's kind of 17 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 1: a crowded place. Back in the day, Uh, the opposite 18 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 1: was true. There were there were around ten thousand people 19 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 1: or so on the planet. That was it. That was 20 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: all of the Homo sapiens, and the the odds were 21 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 1: not looking good. And then in the modern era, post 22 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:37,960 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons. The world has almost ended by accident so 23 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 1: many times panic miscalculation. We have so many close calls 24 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 1: where people almost deployed nuclear weapons, like it went down 25 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: to one or two people who said, hold on, let's 26 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 1: think about this. Yeah. Clearly the impetus for the fantastic 27 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: Stanley Kubrick film Doctor Strange Love that sort of satirizes 28 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 1: how on the edge of a nile lation we as 29 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: a species constantly live, largely because of ignorance and incompetence. 30 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 1: The Hunt for Red October, if you're talking about film, 31 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: is also a pretty good study of what signals people 32 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 1: send during times of rising tensions or war. But altogether, 33 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 1: it's pretty impressive to realize the human species has made 34 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:29,080 Speaker 1: it to one in the first place. The first part, 35 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:36,359 Speaker 1: we can't call the end yet. Reporters, politicians, generals obviously 36 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 1: don't want to meet the public every week and say 37 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 1: we don't know what the hell is going on. But 38 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: but everybody is acutely aware of this problem. Human beings 39 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 1: are not super great at communicating clearly, and this miscommunication 40 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: can have disastrous consequences. So as a result, all of 41 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,799 Speaker 1: the country trees on the planet now have been playing 42 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:09,359 Speaker 1: a very strange game with the balance between transparency and obstucation. Yeah, 43 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 1: and that leads to things like rules of engagements, you know, 44 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 1: like these sort of codes that we all agree to follow, 45 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 1: but maybe it's a little more like, Okay, this would 46 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: be nice if we all agreed to this, and in 47 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 1: theory we do, but we've also seen the way those 48 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: things can completely break down with just a few bad 49 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 1: actors or a few people that don't adhere to these 50 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 1: kind of tacit codes of understanding, right, Yeah, And nobody 51 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 1: thinks of themselves as the bad guy. No, and humanity. 52 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: Humanity has formed all these things for a long time. 53 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 1: Think about NATO, think about you know, the World Health Organization. 54 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 1: Think about all these groups that try to come together 55 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: from multiple nations and stamin accord things like you know, 56 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 1: the w Yeah. So we're talking about treaties, we're talking 57 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 1: about international conglomerates, way of a state. Uh, they come 58 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: together and we make rules that are honestly well intentioned. 59 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: And like you said, we're not attempting to give all 60 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 1: of our secrets away as a country, but we are 61 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 1: trying to minimize inaccuracies, minimize miscalculations. One of the agreements 62 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 1: that the human species reached not too long ago, something 63 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: called the Open Skies Treaty. So here are the facts. 64 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 1: This treaty is pretty extraordinary, actually. It it allows all 65 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 1: of the signatory countries to fly unarmed surveillance craft over 66 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: the entire territory of every other country that participates in 67 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 1: this treaty. Right now, there are more than thirty countries 68 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 1: on board with this, and it's it's pretty weird when 69 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 1: you think about it. It is weird, especially when we 70 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 1: think of things like you're in our airspace, you know, 71 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,679 Speaker 1: ideas like that of being shot down or being threatened 72 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 1: because you accidentally wandered as someone's airspace or into you know, 73 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: waters that are part of a sovereign nation, been right 74 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,039 Speaker 1: up front, How is this different than that? Is it 75 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 1: the unarmed quality? Because I feel like that kind of 76 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 1: threat happens even with just like like say a commercial 77 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 1: flight or whatever, like a private jet. Yeah, it's it's 78 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: it's kind of like that stuff. But the Open Skies 79 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 1: Treaty specifically is for optic observation from the skies, and 80 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,279 Speaker 1: there are there are a couple of other sensors that 81 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 1: are used in the flights. But it was specifically designed 82 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: so that each country could have a direct a direct 83 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: role in looking at the military activities of other countries. 84 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: So you know, it's not you hear a report, even 85 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 1: if you know all these countries are friendly with each other, 86 00:05:55,960 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 1: you hear a report about the military gathering armored vehicles 87 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: in one part of their country, you get to actually 88 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 1: go and look at it. And it's really just a 89 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 1: way to make sure everybody's on the same page. Um, 90 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 1: we're not doing anything secret here. Everything's fine. You can 91 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:15,279 Speaker 1: take a look. It's cool. That's really what it is. Yeah, 92 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:18,400 Speaker 1: the idea here is that there will be less cloak 93 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 1: and daggers stuff going on, because the issue here is 94 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:28,719 Speaker 1: that misunderstandings used to proliferate pretty often. You know, we 95 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 1: have to remember like during the Napoleonic Wars, for instance, 96 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:37,920 Speaker 1: the fastest method of communication was this Game of Thrones 97 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:42,240 Speaker 1: stuff like send send a raven kind of things, and uh, 98 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,640 Speaker 1: and that's that's not super reliable. Then, you know, as 99 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 1: you guys know, I'm the last person to dunk on 100 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:52,239 Speaker 1: ravens or it's in general, but there's just people. They're 101 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:55,840 Speaker 1: just not as good as planes in terms of surveillance, 102 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 1: so so we could maybe the idea of open skies 103 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:03,720 Speaker 1: is we could maybe knit some of this stuff in 104 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 1: the But it's an historic agreement, you guys. I mean, 105 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 1: given how the problems that you've discussed throughout humanity and 106 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 1: the problems that we continue to have with miscommunication, can 107 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,480 Speaker 1: you imagine what it must have been like to have 108 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: to wait for a letter to to arrive by carrier, 109 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: pigeon or raven or what have you, and all of 110 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: the horrible things that could happen in between. It's like, 111 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: it's like we joke about how like so many of 112 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 1: the problems in modern sitcoms could be solved. People have 113 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 1: cell phones, you know, Like I mean, I can't even 114 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 1: imagine so much like diplomatic nightmare scenarios could have taken place, 115 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 1: for sure, you know, and horrible things can still take 116 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: place with the machinery, you know, with the the planes 117 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 1: and jets that are out there doing this kind of surveillance. 118 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:49,119 Speaker 1: But it's not the same as as a raven getting 119 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: caught in a storm or attacked by an eagle. Um, 120 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 1: have you guys ever been in that situation, you know, 121 00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 1: a situation with limited communication. Not for a long time? 122 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I mean I've been in the wilderness before 123 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 1: where there's no signal for anything. Sure, it's an eerie feeling. 124 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 1: It's something that a lot of our listeners in the 125 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: developed world may be unfamiliar with, because there's a pretty 126 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 1: great communication infrastructure and most of the West, most of 127 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 1: the developed world, but if you get you get too 128 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: far in the wild. We've got some listeners now in 129 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 1: rural areas who you know, may have just gotten fiber 130 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 1: Internet connection, you know what I mean of, like a 131 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 1: fast Internet connection. However, in much of the world communication 132 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 1: is still stymied and it's still um. If you go 133 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 1: on Reddit or you go on to Travel for Him 134 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 1: and you look for problems in the developing world that 135 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 1: aren't really mentioned in the developed world, what you'll see 136 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 1: is is that safe delivery of accurate information is kind 137 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 1: of a luxury. Open Skies is meant to eliminate miscommunication, 138 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:19,960 Speaker 1: which is still rampant in the world today but was 139 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 1: even more widespread in decades past. And it's not a 140 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 1: new idea. President Dwight Eisenhower. Yes, the military industrial Congressional 141 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: complex Guy first proposed the US and the Soviet Union 142 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 1: allow He called it aerial reconnaissance flights over each other's territory. 143 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 1: He he pitched this in July at the Geneva conference. 144 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 1: And again, this is you know, this is before widespread satellites. 145 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 1: Both the USSR and the United States were kind of flying, 146 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 1: kind of flying blind. I'm gonna say it. Well, yeah, 147 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: they think about the tentions that existed there with the 148 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 1: two superpowers after World War Two. It had been a 149 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 1: little while since then, but there's you know, there's still tensions. 150 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: They're still worry about what the other one is doing 151 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 1: and what machinations may exist over on that other side, 152 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:18,679 Speaker 1: just you know, and that that exists for both countries. 153 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 1: So um it. You can imagine that this concept was 154 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 1: probably not taken very warmly immediately because it wasn't. Yes, Matt, 155 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 1: you are correct, sir. The USSR, the Soviet Union was 156 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 1: not having it. They said this initiative was bs it 157 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 1: was malarkey, it was hogs wallop. Oh well yeah, I 158 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:48,079 Speaker 1: mean essentially, what it sounds like is you just want 159 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 1: to spy on us. You just want to openly spy 160 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 1: on us. Cool, really, really you want to have a 161 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 1: conversation about how it's cool that you spy on us, 162 00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 1: But you can spy on us. Two. Dude, it's fine, 163 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 1: it's so weird. Yeah, yeah, it is weird. And you know, 164 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 1: this is something we came across off air. In in 165 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 1: the research. You'll notice that we've used the word surveillance 166 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 1: and reconnaissance interchangeably here. But there's there's an important difference, right, Yes, 167 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 1: there absolutely is. So, uh, reconnaissance refers to specifically monitoring 168 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 1: outside of friendly territory, which makes sense if you think 169 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 1: about it. In like, uh, let's think about like you know, 170 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 1: Medal of Honor or whatever, those video games, Like you know, 171 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:36,559 Speaker 1: you're doing recon you're like the squad that's going out 172 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 1: and checking the area for like minds and stuff, or 173 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,960 Speaker 1: like you know, making sure ahead of everyone that's moving 174 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:45,040 Speaker 1: in that it's okay um, or you know, getting intel 175 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 1: about what your target is like, etcetera. Definitely, the image 176 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 1: that this conscious for me is creeping around through hostile territory, right, 177 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 1: and surveillance could be just monitoring in friendly territory. The 178 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: point is the USSR and the United States were the 179 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 1: definition of not friends at this time. So of course, 180 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 1: of course the government of the U s SR is 181 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 1: gonna say what the hell is wrong with you dude, 182 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 1: you're being crazy. But the problem was there, and eventually 183 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:23,160 Speaker 1: all parties realized that the problem was miscalculation is rife. 184 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:28,559 Speaker 1: You could, for instance, based on your intelligence at the time, 185 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 1: mistake or routine supply operation as preparation for the launch 186 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 1: of a missile. Or you could be a pilot and 187 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 1: you could be doing a routine flight and you could 188 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: have something messed up with your instrumentation, and you could 189 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 1: have human error. You could end up violating sovereign airspace, 190 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 1: which could also be considered an act of aggression instead 191 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 1: of just some hapless schmuck in the wrong part of 192 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 1: the air. Or in the worst case scenario, you could 193 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 1: mistake something innocuous as preparation for nuclear war. And that's 194 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:18,200 Speaker 1: where that's where the Open Skies Treaty comes from. So 195 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:23,319 Speaker 1: to Eisenhower and the Eisenhower administration, this could save lives 196 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 1: for you know, humanity. Yeah, yeah, them too. Uh. And 197 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 1: so of course Moscow it says, no, no deal. You're 198 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 1: you're crazy American. Ah. Well, I don't know what they 199 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 1: would call us at that time. Yankee. They say, so 200 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 1: you're you're crazy, Yankee. Uh. This doesn't work out, But 201 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 1: the seeds are planted, and so in then President George H. W. 202 00:13:56,640 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 1: Bush's also you may remember him from his earlier work 203 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 1: in the c I A uh he's he's the guy 204 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: who says, oh, you know, it's not bad, let's let's 205 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 1: do some flyover stuff, which makes sense, you know, spy wise. 206 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 1: There's one more thing to bring in here. You we 207 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 1: mentioned it early early on, just the concept that there 208 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 1: weren't a lot of satellites that had good enough imagery 209 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:24,560 Speaker 1: that were you know, in the right places in order 210 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 1: to have just kind of large scale surveillance, like wide 211 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 1: wide surveillance that is constant. We didn't have that, so 212 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: we really were relying. Ever, every country was relying on 213 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 1: planes and you know, film cameras, like the about film cameras, 214 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 1: and then how much optical technology expanded and evolved from 215 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 1: fifty five to like it was still really good stuff. 216 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 1: But we're gonna talk about it later once we're in 217 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 1: the nineties. Satellite technology is a thing. It's heavily a thing. 218 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 1: So so it is a bit strange still that this 219 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 1: this treaty and this pact ends up being focused strictly 220 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 1: on on jets airplanes. Yeah, to a degree, it's a 221 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 1: it's a self limiting treaty, and we'll we're getting to 222 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 1: the conspiratorial aspects of this very soon, folks. Just just 223 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 1: for a note for long time listeners, you could say 224 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 1: that the satellite program on the US and began in 225 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 1: the very late nineteen fifties, the Corona satellite program, which 226 00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: which is nuts that people don't talk about that more 227 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: often because it is logistically objectively impressive. They were they 228 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 1: were dropping film these things up in like lower orbit 229 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: and they were dropping canisters a film. That's so nuts, 230 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 1: but yeah, they did it, and for a long time 231 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 1: the planes were better. But obviously in the modern day 232 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 1: satellite technology is a huge piece of the problem. Let's 233 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 1: talk about how the treaty itself works, right, So, in 234 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety NATO and the Warsaw Pact think of that 235 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: as the Russian NATO if you want a really easy comparison. Uh, 236 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 1: They started negotiating this in and it went into effect 237 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 1: in two thousand and two. Currently, as we said, thirty 238 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 1: four countries signed on. There is no expiration date to 239 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:44,040 Speaker 1: this treaty. And if you are a country that is 240 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: not involved, like if you are Nepal, Bhuton or Switzerland, 241 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 1: all three of those countries are not involved, then you 242 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 1: can petition to sign on and you there there's like 243 00:16:56,880 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 1: a there's an explicit process for it. But essentially all 244 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 1: that needs to happen is for the other countries that 245 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 1: are already in the treaty to be like, yeah, we 246 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:10,640 Speaker 1: want to fly our spy planes over your stuff too. 247 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,480 Speaker 1: And doesn't the treaty actually kind of really spell out 248 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 1: exactly what kind of equipment can be used? Oh yes, yeah. 249 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:19,280 Speaker 1: So when I asked at the top of the show, like, 250 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 1: how is this different from like, Okay, you're in our airspace. 251 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 1: This is essentially like making an appointment, Like you have 252 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:26,480 Speaker 1: to give notice and you know exactly what the rules 253 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 1: are and you have to follow, you know, using this 254 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 1: agreed upon type of equipment. Correct, Yes, you have to 255 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:36,919 Speaker 1: give seventy two hours notice essentially. Uh. And then and 256 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:39,119 Speaker 1: then there's it's really I mean, it's great. It's a treaty, 257 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 1: lots of lots of words, lots of lots of stipulations 258 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,600 Speaker 1: about how many hours you get to agree to this, 259 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:46,639 Speaker 1: to agree to that, to give your flight plan in 260 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:50,080 Speaker 1: to get it approved. It's uh, it's it's all fun 261 00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:53,160 Speaker 1: in that way. Uh. The last thing here, I'm gonna 262 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 1: go in and talk about all this. If you want 263 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,160 Speaker 1: to follow along with any of this and just read more, 264 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 1: we highly recommend the website arms control dot org. You 265 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 1: can actually see pictures of a lot of the stuff 266 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: we're mentioning in the show today, so you can kind 267 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 1: of check it out. I would also recommend the Federation 268 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:15,399 Speaker 1: of American Scientists. They have a great summary of this. 269 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,119 Speaker 1: We're going somewhere with this, folks, and it's not just 270 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:26,639 Speaker 1: enemy airspace, it turns out. Know, you're absolutely right. The 271 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 1: treaty is not just specific on the type of equipment 272 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,440 Speaker 1: that can be used for surveillance, but it also has 273 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:39,960 Speaker 1: rules regarding how new equipment can be introduced or how 274 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 1: it can be turned down. It also there's a really 275 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 1: cool thing in this treaty. Well, I say cool. I 276 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: think it's funny. Uh. Let's see, you're a smaller country 277 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 1: and you don't have the biggest air force, but you're 278 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 1: a member of Open Skies. There's this thing in the 279 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 1: treaty called the taxi option. So imagine that like Matt 280 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:13,359 Speaker 1: is France and Noel is Germany, and Matt's country wants 281 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 1: to surveil Noel's country. Then Noel, as a leader of Germany, 282 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 1: has the option to say, get your own planes, by 283 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,640 Speaker 1: your own planes over here, you know the rules, buddy, 284 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:34,119 Speaker 1: or Noel as the you know in Germany can say, actually, 285 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 1: theyll tech the German plane. Indeed, of course what I 286 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,879 Speaker 1: would say, because as you know, I was once a 287 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:47,360 Speaker 1: young German boy. Yes, yes, I didn't mean to stereotype 288 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:50,159 Speaker 1: you there, but it's but it is pretty neat, you know. 289 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:54,000 Speaker 1: The idea like this applied to the US too, past tense. 290 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:58,880 Speaker 1: You could if you were the US, you could say, okay, 291 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:03,679 Speaker 1: you want to surveiled me France, Matt, I don't know 292 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:05,879 Speaker 1: why I major the leader of France, but here we 293 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 1: are so good. It's in my it's in my blood. 294 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,360 Speaker 1: So yeah, well let's do it. Keep going, all right. 295 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,479 Speaker 1: So so that if you're the US and you know 296 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 1: France wants to surveil you under this treaty, then you 297 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,160 Speaker 1: can you you have the choice as the observed country. 298 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 1: You can either say okay, yes, and your planes over, 299 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:28,640 Speaker 1: send your folks over, or you can say, oh, yeah, 300 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:32,240 Speaker 1: well we'll run a plane around for you. The treaty 301 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:35,879 Speaker 1: does require people from the observer country to be on board, 302 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: so they got they have in front of that. Anyway, 303 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 1: getting into the weeds a little bit, each member the 304 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 1: treaty has a couple of quotas. They have a number 305 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:49,400 Speaker 1: of flights that they can conduct over other countries. That's 306 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 1: a that's a called their active quota, that has a 307 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 1: maximum number, that has a ceiling, a threshold. And then 308 00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:58,120 Speaker 1: every country has a number of flights that must accept 309 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 1: from the other or countries. Think of that as something 310 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 1: with a floor. There's a minimum there. It's called a 311 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 1: passive quota. It has to do with the size of 312 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 1: the country. I believe. I believe that's the actual like 313 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,360 Speaker 1: physical size of the country, right, Yeah, because we are 314 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 1: talking geography at this point more so than geopolitics. But 315 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 1: eventually they end up being the same thing. So the 316 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:27,679 Speaker 1: cool part is one of the cool parts. One of 317 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 1: the distinct parts of this treaty is that any member 318 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:38,160 Speaker 1: has the right to request information received by any other 319 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: country under this treaty. The weird thing is being that 320 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:45,399 Speaker 1: that it's the government they have to pay for the 321 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: cost of reproduction, to pay for printing. Yeah, their fees, dude, 322 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 1: Come on, this is high quality now digital hopefully photography 323 00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 1: I just I love that part. I love those parts. 324 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,639 Speaker 1: And treaty is because it's so it is so petty, 325 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 1: But it is easy to imagine if if that stipulation 326 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: did not exist, wouldn't one country just to be super petty. 327 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 1: Wouldn't one country just start demanding reproductions of everything and 328 00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 1: try to try to break the bank? I just love it. 329 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 1: I love the idea. I love the idea. Uh but yes, 330 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:29,960 Speaker 1: that's the treaty came into force January one, two thousand two. 331 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:35,119 Speaker 1: As you might imagine, things did not work out as planned. 332 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 1: And we'll tell you why they didn't work out after 333 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 1: a word from our sponsor, and we're back. Turns out, 334 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:53,399 Speaker 1: during the Cold War, Russia and the US spoilers. Folks 335 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 1: hated each other like very much, so loathed, despised, feared, 336 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:05,119 Speaker 1: and we're fascinated by one another. So they repeatedly, pretty 337 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 1: much immediately, they repeatedly began accusing one another of violating 338 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:14,439 Speaker 1: the treaty. Fast forward too, not that long ago, as 339 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:20,119 Speaker 1: we record today. On November twenty, the US bailed out 340 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 1: of the treaty. So what happened? Here's where it gets crazy. 341 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 1: So the US kind of let the badger ahead of 342 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,680 Speaker 1: the bag as far as its plans to withdraw well 343 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,959 Speaker 1: in advance of November, with the Trump administration sending mixed 344 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:38,080 Speaker 1: messages about whether the country would actually leave the agreement. 345 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,320 Speaker 1: This is something that the Trump administration has done many 346 00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 1: times in terms of will they won't They say with 347 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,920 Speaker 1: the Paris Climate A core, they ultimately did get out 348 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:48,439 Speaker 1: of that one. But there's a lot of this kind 349 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,000 Speaker 1: of leveraging of kind of like keeping people on the 350 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 1: edge of their seats in some kind of weird power move. 351 00:23:55,800 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 1: But the Federation of American Scientists sums up the United 352 00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:05,160 Speaker 1: States logic uh pretty succinctly um saying this quote. According 353 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,159 Speaker 1: to the U s. State Department, Russia has restricted access 354 00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 1: for open skies flights over Kaliningrad, over Moscow, and along 355 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 1: the border of Russia with the Georgian regions of South 356 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,720 Speaker 1: Ossesia and ab Khazia. Russia has reportedly also failed to 357 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,119 Speaker 1: provide priority flight clearance for open skies flights on a 358 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:26,879 Speaker 1: few occasions. The United States raised these issues in the 359 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 1: Open Skies Consultive Commission, and some have been resolved. Nevertheless, 360 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:35,480 Speaker 1: the United States responded to limitations imposed by Russia by 361 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,960 Speaker 1: limiting the length of flights over Hawaii, and removing access 362 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 1: to two US Air Force Bass used during Russian missions 363 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,119 Speaker 1: over the United States. So a little bit of a 364 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 1: tip for tat situation here, Ben, Can you help us 365 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:52,200 Speaker 1: unpack this a little bit. Yeah, everything you just said 366 00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 1: is true. Russia, as a signatory to the agreement was 367 00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:02,360 Speaker 1: not playing by the rules. Uh. Folks will notice that 368 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:08,760 Speaker 1: the areas and Will just mentioned South, Ossetia, Kasia. These 369 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 1: are I would add parts of Ukraine as well, crimea. Uh. 370 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 1: These are areas that are hotly contested on the international sphere, 371 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:27,440 Speaker 1: and Russia is saying the some sky open other No, 372 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,800 Speaker 1: you know what I mean. I apologize. I'm just I 373 00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:38,520 Speaker 1: watched too many eighties movies Battleship never Oh gosh, folks, 374 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 1: we had the we had the most fun. Riff was 375 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,520 Speaker 1: so mad we didn't record it where we were just 376 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 1: imagining Vladimir Putin playing board games with regular people. Bus goal, 377 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:59,880 Speaker 1: I possess park Bliss But but but yes, bad accents 378 00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 1: of side. It's true. It is provably demonstrably true that 379 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:12,760 Speaker 1: Russia violated the terms of this treaty, and so this 380 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 1: became a rationalization for other parties. Cough cough, wink, wink, 381 00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 1: nudge nudge the US cough cough, wink, wink, nudge nudge. 382 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,399 Speaker 1: It became, it became this rationalization for the US to 383 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 1: also not obey parts of the treaty. It's understandable, right, 384 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 1: It's an understandable concept. However, there are some problems with 385 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:38,439 Speaker 1: this perspective. First, the biggest one, the biggest badger in 386 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 1: this bag, the biggest elephant in this room, as you said, Matt, 387 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 1: satellite technology. Yeah, I mean they they can. They can 388 00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:52,920 Speaker 1: get extremely high resolution imagery and some of the other 389 00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 1: sensors that are on board many satellites can give you 390 00:26:56,720 --> 00:27:00,520 Speaker 1: just ridiculously detailed information that you don't needed to send 391 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,320 Speaker 1: a big, loud plane over there, and you don't need 392 00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,120 Speaker 1: to send seventy two hours. Notice, you just got that thing. 393 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 1: It's up there, and it looks always, it never looks away. Yeah, 394 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:20,399 Speaker 1: that right there is alone is reason. I don't know, 395 00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:24,720 Speaker 1: it's reason that makes this whole treaty a bit more 396 00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 1: ceremonial um and just in just a something that just 397 00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,760 Speaker 1: shows all the other countries that hey, we have nothing 398 00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:36,159 Speaker 1: to hide. That's literally all it has become, and and 399 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 1: has been really since because we're talking to two thousand 400 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:44,200 Speaker 1: two is when it was ratified. We've had extremely good 401 00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,919 Speaker 1: satellites all many of the countries that have signed have 402 00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:52,399 Speaker 1: had ridiculously powerful satellites in the sky, in the above 403 00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:56,639 Speaker 1: the skies for a long time. Yeah, yeah, it's true. 404 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:02,040 Speaker 1: Is it like having a treaty with very specific rules 405 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:07,639 Speaker 1: on how to how to transport VHS tapes in a 406 00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 1: world of digital downloads? That's not That's not a bad comparison. Really, 407 00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:17,159 Speaker 1: the problem is the problem is the satellites. Is this 408 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:22,320 Speaker 1: ceremonial I love that you use this word because for 409 00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:29,119 Speaker 1: people objecting saying that Russia is not obeying the rules 410 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 1: of this treaty, are we then just saying Russia is 411 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:36,879 Speaker 1: not doing the ceremonial song and dance that we wish 412 00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 1: it would do with us? You know what I mean? 413 00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 1: Is it just offbeat for this, for this choreography, this pageant, 414 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:50,080 Speaker 1: this theater. Uh, not quite. The thing is if we 415 00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:52,560 Speaker 1: go back to what no mentioned earlier with the Federation 416 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:59,960 Speaker 1: of American Scientists, we see that in US analysts did 417 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:05,760 Speaker 1: termined that this treaty doesn't really make risk for the 418 00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:14,440 Speaker 1: US Russia. Russia could already collect information with these observation satellites, 419 00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:20,960 Speaker 1: and Russia for a time was running behind. They were 420 00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:27,520 Speaker 1: they were lagging in terms of monitoring capability in in 421 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 1: their own satellites, and then the US was also lagging 422 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:38,360 Speaker 1: behind in different things. There's there's this constant push and pull, 423 00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:45,480 Speaker 1: this constant um gap in in capability. But as we 424 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:48,960 Speaker 1: said earlier, the thing about this treaty is it doesn't 425 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,200 Speaker 1: care about satellites. It is only about the planes, and 426 00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:56,240 Speaker 1: it's only about what specific stuff one can have on 427 00:29:56,320 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 1: a plane. So this criticis is um of Russia not 428 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:07,640 Speaker 1: obeying the rules. Again, it's absolutely true, but it also 429 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:13,040 Speaker 1: sort of ignores what is implied to be the larger point. 430 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,320 Speaker 1: The larger point is who spies on whom and how? 431 00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 1: And now? Uh Now, to argue, you know, our plane 432 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 1: flights aren't working, it's kind of like pretending the U 433 00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:31,520 Speaker 1: S satellites don't exist, which is you know, I'll say it, 434 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:36,880 Speaker 1: it's it's at best misleading. Uh. Second problem, this is 435 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,640 Speaker 1: huge for NATO, This is huge for European security. And 436 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 1: of course, uh, NATO is a rough beast slouching toward 437 00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:50,920 Speaker 1: Bethlehem to be born, as as various poets would say, 438 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:55,440 Speaker 1: it's it's not a perfect thing, but it needs it 439 00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:59,880 Speaker 1: needs the US. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization needs the US. 440 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:03,160 Speaker 1: So the European countries who are signatories to open skies 441 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:08,320 Speaker 1: very much want the US on board. The U S 442 00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:13,040 Speaker 1: is not on board, by the way, uh recently, as 443 00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:15,400 Speaker 1: we said, you know who else is not on board? 444 00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:22,720 Speaker 1: Any East Asian South East Asian countries of none of 445 00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:25,800 Speaker 1: them are on board. And I am trying to imagine 446 00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 1: approaching China right now and attempting to get them on 447 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,720 Speaker 1: board or something like this. But from a strategic standpoint, 448 00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:36,040 Speaker 1: is is really what I'm thinking about? Like what would 449 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,480 Speaker 1: be the benefit? I don't know, And I guess it 450 00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:41,920 Speaker 1: would be just the same the same argument that was 451 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,320 Speaker 1: made when making it before. We have nothing to hide, everybody, 452 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:47,800 Speaker 1: I know, you have nothing to hide, right, I have 453 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:54,680 Speaker 1: nothing to hide. Okay, cool, that's lots to hide. It's 454 00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:56,720 Speaker 1: all about optics, right, I mean that's what you're saying. Then, 455 00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:58,800 Speaker 1: like this idea that this is some sort of like 456 00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 1: a understanding, but it doesn't mean full transparency. That's not 457 00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:07,200 Speaker 1: what it means. No, No, And it's so strange you 458 00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:12,640 Speaker 1: don't it's so strange with with humanity, the rules it 459 00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:17,120 Speaker 1: puts in place. There are laws about the right way 460 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:20,800 Speaker 1: to kill people. Isn't that nuts? No one ever thinks 461 00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:22,880 Speaker 1: about that, no one, no one ever talks about that. 462 00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:25,800 Speaker 1: They're they're they're like the same way you would have 463 00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:31,720 Speaker 1: a slaughterhouse with health regulations. That's the way this species is. 464 00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:37,000 Speaker 1: It's like, Okay, some methods, maybe a lot of methods 465 00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:42,720 Speaker 1: of killing people or endangering innocence are wrong. However, you 466 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:45,560 Speaker 1: know if you do it, if you do it according 467 00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:51,120 Speaker 1: to the following guidelines, I don't know. That's story for 468 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,080 Speaker 1: a different day. We're gonna pause for word from our sponsor, 469 00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 1: and then we're going to return with the war conspiratorial 470 00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 1: accusations regard the Open Skies Treaty. We're back. So we 471 00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 1: mentioned the two big problems. First, the European countries feel 472 00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,960 Speaker 1: like they very much need the US on board for 473 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:22,240 Speaker 1: open skies. Uh. Second, satellite technology. How much of this 474 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 1: stuff is ceremony at this point? Right? Uh? This is 475 00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,600 Speaker 1: the third part. This is the third part. It's a 476 00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 1: little more uh speculative. You see, critics of the US 477 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:40,520 Speaker 1: decision to withdraw from this treaty are not just objecting 478 00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,840 Speaker 1: to withdrawal from this one treaty. They are objecting to 479 00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:48,320 Speaker 1: what they see as a larger pattern of withdrawing from 480 00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:54,600 Speaker 1: arms treaties in general. And they they think that there's 481 00:33:55,880 --> 00:34:01,000 Speaker 1: something amiss. They think there's something wrong with this pattern. Yeah, 482 00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:04,880 Speaker 1: and the critics aren't exactly shying away from how they 483 00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:08,400 Speaker 1: feel about this. UH. The House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman 484 00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:12,080 Speaker 1: Elliott Engel, who's a Democrat from New York UH, in 485 00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:16,680 Speaker 1: addition to Representative William Keating, Democrat from Massachusetts, issued a 486 00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:20,920 Speaker 1: statement on November three saying that the Trump administration broke 487 00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:24,080 Speaker 1: the law when withdrawing from the treaty UM as the 488 00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:29,800 Speaker 1: administration did not give Congress a one and twenty day notice. UM. 489 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,760 Speaker 1: They went further in their statement UM and got pretty 490 00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:37,200 Speaker 1: heated by Congressional standards anyway, UM, saying the following President 491 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:40,880 Speaker 1: Trump is attempting to burn down our critical institutions on 492 00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,480 Speaker 1: his way out the door. In doing so, he not 493 00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:47,880 Speaker 1: only jeopardized US national security, but he blatantly ignored and 494 00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 1: deliberately broke the law. Burn The one thing that you 495 00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:57,320 Speaker 1: can't say is true is that we withdrew I believe 496 00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:01,440 Speaker 1: ben correct if I'm wrong November of twenty twenty, which 497 00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:06,200 Speaker 1: is very very late into the four year term of 498 00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:10,560 Speaker 1: of the standing current standing president. So it's just it 499 00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:13,960 Speaker 1: is a bit weird to drop out of that. We 500 00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:16,800 Speaker 1: will talk about it further, but I I personally don't 501 00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:19,680 Speaker 1: see the immediate need to do so, even with the 502 00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,960 Speaker 1: stuff we discussed about Russia and not necessarily playing by 503 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,160 Speaker 1: the rules. Yeah, I mean, it's a good point that 504 00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:32,200 Speaker 1: we read a lot of government publications, government statements. That's 505 00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:36,040 Speaker 1: kind of provocative people to say, you know this, this 506 00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:40,399 Speaker 1: guy that we don't like is not just leaving, he's 507 00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:45,799 Speaker 1: burning everything down. It's uh, it's made for TV. But 508 00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:51,319 Speaker 1: the point stands, and you are right, Uh, this is 509 00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:56,680 Speaker 1: a withdrawal very late into a presidential term. If we 510 00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:00,040 Speaker 1: are to look at it from a larger perspective of 511 00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:07,840 Speaker 1: continuity of government, then we could perhaps argue that any 512 00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:13,400 Speaker 1: specific for year period doesn't specifically matter. Uh. The problem 513 00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:17,239 Speaker 1: is the rest of the world observes the US on 514 00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:22,239 Speaker 1: this four year period. UH, and as a result, UH, 515 00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:27,719 Speaker 1: the US does not have the best reputation abroad. Because 516 00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:32,320 Speaker 1: you can if you're another country, let's say, Matt, your France, 517 00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:36,040 Speaker 1: you know your Germany. Um, let's make paula fun when 518 00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:39,279 Speaker 1: what country is Paul mintioned control? Luxemburg. I was gonna 519 00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:43,280 Speaker 1: say Luxemburg out of my head, out of my head. Okay, 520 00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,560 Speaker 1: well you were both going to say that, because you 521 00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:51,800 Speaker 1: are correct, Paul Luxembourg decand uh so Luxembourg, France, Germany 522 00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:55,520 Speaker 1: are looking at the US and they've may be made 523 00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:59,040 Speaker 1: a deal and they say, okay, we can trust this 524 00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:04,239 Speaker 1: guy who's here for four to eight years. But but 525 00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:08,280 Speaker 1: after that, it's a new ballgame. Can we trust this person? 526 00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:15,560 Speaker 1: So now we see domestic echoes of that problem, because 527 00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:19,640 Speaker 1: critics are alleging this decision to leave the Open Skies 528 00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:26,680 Speaker 1: Treaty was somehow politically motivated, and the argument there from 529 00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:31,319 Speaker 1: Angle and Keating and others who agree with them is 530 00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:37,680 Speaker 1: that this is an effort to prevent the incoming administration 531 00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:43,759 Speaker 1: of the US from easily rejoining or even strengthening not 532 00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:47,440 Speaker 1: just this agreement, but others. I honestly do not know this, 533 00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:50,080 Speaker 1: Ben and I didn't find this in my research. How 534 00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:52,640 Speaker 1: difficult is it to rejoin? Is it something that's going 535 00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:56,840 Speaker 1: to be a major process. It should not be, because 536 00:37:57,040 --> 00:38:02,200 Speaker 1: of the rules or the procedures outlined in the treaty. 537 00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:06,960 Speaker 1: As we said earlier, for a country to join the 538 00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:11,719 Speaker 1: Treaty on open Skies, they need to have a they 539 00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:16,560 Speaker 1: need to win a consensus vote from the signatory countries. 540 00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:20,080 Speaker 1: And we know Europe very much once the US back 541 00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:23,000 Speaker 1: in the game here because they consider it crucial for 542 00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:27,719 Speaker 1: their own transparency and security. And you know, US has 543 00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:34,640 Speaker 1: pretty substantial air force, We have the planes. So so 544 00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:38,759 Speaker 1: this is this is weird because it again, as we 545 00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:42,680 Speaker 1: said before, nothing occurs in a vacuum, right, So these 546 00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:49,520 Speaker 1: withdrawals from arms treaties, whatever, whatever the proposed logic for 547 00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:56,279 Speaker 1: them is, they occur in tandem with pushes from some 548 00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:59,960 Speaker 1: factions of the US government to develop new nuclear web 549 00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,880 Speaker 1: and this scares the heck out of a lot of people, rightly. So, 550 00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:08,920 Speaker 1: so here's the big question gone into the weeds on this, 551 00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:12,160 Speaker 1: this treaty. It's it's kind of dry stuff. But here 552 00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:17,479 Speaker 1: is the million dollar questions, the billion life question. Why 553 00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:22,400 Speaker 1: has the US withdrawn from so many arms controlled treaties 554 00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:28,080 Speaker 1: in the last few years America. First, I don't know, isolationism, 555 00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:30,759 Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm I'm just that's a good question. Well, 556 00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:36,839 Speaker 1: some of it rests upon the lasting influence of former officials, uh, 557 00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:43,680 Speaker 1: pundits and hawks like John Bolton. He that you guys 558 00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:48,600 Speaker 1: remember John Bolton. Uh, he's been his. He's been his 559 00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:52,680 Speaker 1: like a whole career, hating any kind of arms control 560 00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:56,480 Speaker 1: stuff because or hating anything that applied to the US 561 00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:01,680 Speaker 1: because he assumed that those kind of agreements would limit 562 00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:06,280 Speaker 1: the US and that other countries would just not obey 563 00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:10,000 Speaker 1: those agreements and have no consequences. John Bolton, he he 564 00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:13,920 Speaker 1: was a neo conservative. I believe maybe he's that Bush 565 00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:17,080 Speaker 1: w George W. Bush are and then a little prior 566 00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:19,759 Speaker 1: to that. Wow, it's been a while since I thought 567 00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:22,560 Speaker 1: about that, dude, But it makes complete sense, right. You 568 00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:25,279 Speaker 1: get into one of these big agreements with other countries 569 00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:28,319 Speaker 1: and everybody doesn't have to follow the rules, even though 570 00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:30,880 Speaker 1: they've signed something and say they're going to. But it 571 00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:35,520 Speaker 1: also means that the US, like John Bolton's side, doesn't 572 00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:39,120 Speaker 1: have to necessarily follow the rules. Maybe he knows how 573 00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:42,360 Speaker 1: we are going to roll in that kind of agreement 574 00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,839 Speaker 1: and then he's just applying it. He's that's what it is, 575 00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:48,960 Speaker 1: John Bolton, It's just projecting. Is it all just like 576 00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:52,520 Speaker 1: symbol symbolic? Though? Like what's the point if it's non binding, 577 00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:54,480 Speaker 1: is it just to kind of like have the like 578 00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,839 Speaker 1: optics of of rules, of the optics of like order 579 00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:00,320 Speaker 1: when it's all really just chaos and up to whatever 580 00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:05,200 Speaker 1: the individual parties want to do, there would be theoretical consequences, right, 581 00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:09,520 Speaker 1: But how many well, how many people as the International 582 00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:14,040 Speaker 1: Criminal Court convicted? Yeah, exactly, that's another uncomfortable question. So 583 00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:19,240 Speaker 1: shout out to you, Joseph Coney. Uh. The Open Skies 584 00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:25,040 Speaker 1: Treaty is the third arms control agreement that the we're 585 00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:30,719 Speaker 1: so very close to the tow shift and the executive 586 00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:36,160 Speaker 1: branch here the the current president as we record this. Uh, 587 00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:41,360 Speaker 1: this is the third arms control agreement that administration has left. 588 00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:46,440 Speaker 1: The Iran nuclear Deal I'm probably all familiar with that 589 00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:50,360 Speaker 1: went that went could put on the US side in 590 00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:55,160 Speaker 1: twenty there was another thing a lot of people may 591 00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:59,520 Speaker 1: not have heard about, the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. 592 00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:08,520 Speaker 1: This country left that in twenty nineteen. So there are salients, 593 00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:14,000 Speaker 1: valid and immediate fears that the US will also leave 594 00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:19,040 Speaker 1: something called New Start, which is due to expire next month. 595 00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:23,040 Speaker 1: This is a this is a treaty about nuclear weapons, 596 00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:28,200 Speaker 1: specifically between Russia and the US. We don't know at 597 00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:33,320 Speaker 1: this point. Now Russia is responding to the US withdrawal 598 00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:39,200 Speaker 1: from open skies. Uh, but it is it is advantageous. 599 00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:45,640 Speaker 1: It is inarguably a good deal for Russia for the 600 00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:49,160 Speaker 1: US to not be involved in this treaty because it 601 00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:53,040 Speaker 1: means that now Russia will be able to fly over 602 00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:58,839 Speaker 1: US Basis and other treaty members airspace. Right, it will 603 00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:03,800 Speaker 1: be able to fly over US facilities, and the US 604 00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:08,720 Speaker 1: will not be allowed to fly over Russia. Of course, yes, 605 00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:13,959 Speaker 1: the satellites are still in orbit and pinging one another continually. 606 00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:20,200 Speaker 1: It feels like like like putting ourselves at a disadvantage purposefully. 607 00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:23,640 Speaker 1: Oh that's we know it's not necessarily true, but it 608 00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:29,120 Speaker 1: reads that way, right, Like, why even if it is ceremonial, 609 00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:35,720 Speaker 1: even if it is symbolic, why hamper oneself in this manner? Uh? 610 00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:41,799 Speaker 1: To be fair, The President at the time these decisions 611 00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:47,479 Speaker 1: did specifically state there would be there may be light 612 00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,520 Speaker 1: at the end of the nuclear tunnel, there may be 613 00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:52,640 Speaker 1: hope for a new agreement in the future, and he 614 00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:55,239 Speaker 1: said the following He said, I think we have a 615 00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:58,400 Speaker 1: very good relationship with Russia. But Russia didn't adhere to 616 00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,160 Speaker 1: the treaty. So until they had here to the treaty, 617 00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:04,000 Speaker 1: we will pull out. And he went on to say 618 00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:06,840 Speaker 1: there's a very good chance we'll make a new agreement 619 00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:10,160 Speaker 1: or do something to put that agreement back together, which 620 00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,880 Speaker 1: makes sense. I mean, it feels like something that would 621 00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:18,560 Speaker 1: get that would happen again. But there's a window at 622 00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:22,840 Speaker 1: least where we're not going to be a part of it. Yes, 623 00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:29,000 Speaker 1: And the this is this is the conspiratorial part. Here 624 00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:33,760 Speaker 1: is there a larger, longer game app play? Why now? 625 00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:39,080 Speaker 1: Right two thousand and two to two thousand and twenty, 626 00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:42,600 Speaker 1: Why out of the eighteen years that this was enforce 627 00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:46,440 Speaker 1: why did it end? Now? We have to say it. 628 00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:49,840 Speaker 1: It's long been suspected that parts of the US government 629 00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:56,880 Speaker 1: have been and are compromised by Russian intelligence. In recent years, 630 00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:00,440 Speaker 1: the executive branch of the United States has been the 631 00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:05,920 Speaker 1: target of the majority of these allegations. The idea is 632 00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:12,400 Speaker 1: that there is blackmail a foot. Yeah, compromat is sometimes 633 00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:16,160 Speaker 1: used for the Russian version. And there's something many of 634 00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:20,200 Speaker 1: our listeners remember called the Steel Dossier. You guys remember 635 00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:22,520 Speaker 1: that that was the one with the Ppe tape in it. Right, 636 00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:30,000 Speaker 1: It's one with allegations of recreational urination. Yes, I am, 637 00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:33,360 Speaker 1: among other things, many other things. And you know, recently 638 00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:37,239 Speaker 1: we've seen stuff coming from both sides of the congressional 639 00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:41,360 Speaker 1: aisle in this country, memos, you know, highly redacted memos 640 00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:43,880 Speaker 1: that have very specific things to say that you and 641 00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:47,640 Speaker 1: I as you know, just regular old citizens don't get 642 00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:50,840 Speaker 1: to read. Um. And of course we just pay we 643 00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:56,200 Speaker 1: pay those people to write things. We can't read it. Yeah, yeah, 644 00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:59,360 Speaker 1: and uh, the dossier itself has been called into question 645 00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:05,040 Speaker 1: a ton. It's also one of those things that it's 646 00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:08,480 Speaker 1: it's hard for us as lay people to know, you know, 647 00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:11,640 Speaker 1: what's in it, if it's real, or like, if what's 648 00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:20,080 Speaker 1: in it is real. Yeah. However, James Comy was pulled off, uh, 649 00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:26,360 Speaker 1: let go from his job while investigating this stuff, and 650 00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:32,759 Speaker 1: the US intelligence agencies can confirm many of the allegations 651 00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:36,319 Speaker 1: in the dossier add up or have at least some 652 00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:40,480 Speaker 1: sand to them worthy of investigation. They're also this is 653 00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:49,200 Speaker 1: also coupled with controversial remarks about Russia performatively to Russia, 654 00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:55,920 Speaker 1: uh in in public public statements by the current administration. 655 00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:59,080 Speaker 1: As we record this, you know, saying hey, wow, Russia 656 00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:01,959 Speaker 1: is gonna help us with the election. Do it which 657 00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:05,359 Speaker 1: is not your political party, doesn't matter if you're in 658 00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:07,960 Speaker 1: this country. You should not ask for in countries for 659 00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:11,440 Speaker 1: help it an election. That's that's that's the big thing. 660 00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:13,520 Speaker 1: Now at this point we have to say there's been 661 00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:20,200 Speaker 1: no official, widely accepted confirmation that Russia has its hand 662 00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:24,359 Speaker 1: on the neck of the executive branch. There's no official 663 00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:29,640 Speaker 1: confirmation of this, but it is certain that Russia interfered 664 00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:37,799 Speaker 1: with the US elections to put they're chosen candidate in office. Yes, 665 00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:40,279 Speaker 1: that's a scary eighties action movie thing to say, but 666 00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:44,640 Speaker 1: the question is is it true. We know that Russia 667 00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:48,759 Speaker 1: tried to influence the election, We just don't know the 668 00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:52,759 Speaker 1: degree of success. Really, we don't have. Oddly enough, the 669 00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:56,120 Speaker 1: official Russian position is that they didn't interfere with the elections. 670 00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:58,600 Speaker 1: So so there are people who are going to tell 671 00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:05,440 Speaker 1: you that the reason the US has withdrawn from multiple 672 00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:11,640 Speaker 1: arms controlled treaties, especially open skies, is that they were 673 00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:18,040 Speaker 1: told to by some foreign asset. What do you guys think? 674 00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:20,239 Speaker 1: What do you guys think about that? It's a big 675 00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:22,839 Speaker 1: thing to say, you know, it's a big thing to say, 676 00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:25,480 Speaker 1: and it's a hard thing to like know, Yeah, I 677 00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:30,000 Speaker 1: don't know, something feels off, I would say, just personally 678 00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:33,680 Speaker 1: with with a lot of these things, I think I've 679 00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:37,359 Speaker 1: watched way too much Mr Robot for me to objectively 680 00:48:37,520 --> 00:48:43,160 Speaker 1: even like ponder it at this point. Maybe it's a corporation. Yeah, 681 00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:48,040 Speaker 1: maybe it's the Pepperidge Farm. Uh folks, are they the 682 00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:51,680 Speaker 1: ones who make cookies? Yeah, it could be that. Yeah, 683 00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:55,279 Speaker 1: for sure, it might be them. Um but you know, 684 00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:59,040 Speaker 1: the the other thing is that we've we've discussed this 685 00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:03,279 Speaker 1: before the show the Long Game. Uh, the the concept 686 00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:08,279 Speaker 1: that perhaps the KGB or some other essentially sleeper organization 687 00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:12,319 Speaker 1: within Soviet intelligence went underground for a long time and 688 00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:17,440 Speaker 1: then resurfaced, and with with plans too. It's kind of 689 00:49:17,560 --> 00:49:22,120 Speaker 1: sounds silly, with plans to become the world power, the 690 00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:26,560 Speaker 1: leading world power eventually in the future at some point, 691 00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:30,319 Speaker 1: and to rebuild the power that they once had. Um 692 00:49:30,880 --> 00:49:34,680 Speaker 1: it it rings of that. That does not mean this 693 00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:39,680 Speaker 1: has anything to do with with those alleged plans. But yeah, again, 694 00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:41,520 Speaker 1: my maybe in my head is just too deep in 695 00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:44,399 Speaker 1: some of that stuff to think about it objectively. I mean, 696 00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:46,239 Speaker 1: it makes a whole lot of sense, the idea of 697 00:49:46,239 --> 00:49:48,840 Speaker 1: of of of us doing it to benefit Russia in 698 00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:50,680 Speaker 1: some way. That's sure. Has been a lot of rhetoric 699 00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:54,279 Speaker 1: that benefited Russia, a lot of kind of you know, 700 00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:57,800 Speaker 1: Trump aligning with putin Um and in ways that previous 701 00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:00,600 Speaker 1: presidents just never have or never would in a million years. 702 00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:03,359 Speaker 1: So it's it's hard to not think where they're smoke, 703 00:50:03,400 --> 00:50:06,080 Speaker 1: there's fire, but again, really really hard to prove and 704 00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:08,920 Speaker 1: very much in the realm of conjecture. Yeah, that's the pickle. 705 00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:13,640 Speaker 1: It's it's something that historians of the future are going 706 00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:17,560 Speaker 1: to be debating and picking apart. Right now, the facts 707 00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:21,399 Speaker 1: are this, Uh, the satellite technology that is not part 708 00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:25,719 Speaker 1: of Open skies deliver some of the same capabilities, right, 709 00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:31,520 Speaker 1: and these satellites do pretty well right now. By stepping 710 00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:36,200 Speaker 1: out of this treaty, the US has put itself at 711 00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:40,320 Speaker 1: a bit of a disadvantage. The degree of that disadvantage 712 00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:46,200 Speaker 1: remains to be seen. But the logic behind that withdrawal is, uh, 713 00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:49,359 Speaker 1: you know, it makes sense when you read the statements. Uh, 714 00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:51,680 Speaker 1: they said, the other folks aren't playing by the rules, 715 00:50:52,120 --> 00:50:56,560 Speaker 1: so why should we continue to play the game, And 716 00:50:56,960 --> 00:51:00,960 Speaker 1: we'll come back if the rules are all followed again, right, right, 717 00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:05,800 Speaker 1: So not super apocalyptic here. But the more you dig 718 00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:11,840 Speaker 1: into it, um, the stranger it seems, especially given that 719 00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:17,799 Speaker 1: pattern of withdrawals from other existing agreements. Well, and the 720 00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:22,000 Speaker 1: more tensions rise, the more dangerous it is for everyone, 721 00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:26,080 Speaker 1: not just Russia and the United States. The Federation of 722 00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:29,880 Speaker 1: American Scientists, and then the the Bulletin of the Atomic 723 00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:34,320 Speaker 1: Scientists that that the group that puts out that doomsday 724 00:51:34,360 --> 00:51:37,040 Speaker 1: clock that we've mentioned before in the show a lot 725 00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:40,160 Speaker 1: of times. Um, you know, over the years, it's changed 726 00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:44,520 Speaker 1: quite a bit since we've been making this show. My goodness. Uh, 727 00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:47,560 Speaker 1: let's see, two thousand ten, it was six minutes to midnight, 728 00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:50,359 Speaker 1: two thousand twelve, it was five minutes to midnight, two 729 00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:53,960 Speaker 1: thousand fifteen, three minutes, two thousand seventeen, two and a 730 00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:57,919 Speaker 1: half minutes, two thousand eighteen, two minutes to midnight, and 731 00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:03,000 Speaker 1: as of last year, it was one hundred seconds to midnight, 732 00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:06,000 Speaker 1: less than two minutes away. What does that mean midnight? 733 00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:13,600 Speaker 1: That means um, highly likely apocalypse, essentially nuclear war or 734 00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:18,319 Speaker 1: you know, devastating things. Um. With with all of that 735 00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:21,759 Speaker 1: happening in the world, having these tensions run higher and 736 00:52:21,840 --> 00:52:25,680 Speaker 1: higher is just terrifying, right, because we don't have to 737 00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:30,359 Speaker 1: just think about the world today. We have to think 738 00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:33,520 Speaker 1: about the world in the future. The most important part 739 00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:38,200 Speaker 1: of this story of the species is a story is 740 00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:41,560 Speaker 1: not us doing this show now, and it's it's not 741 00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:44,960 Speaker 1: you listening. It's the people who come after us, and 742 00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:50,520 Speaker 1: that's in they are in a very real sense our responsibility. 743 00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:57,840 Speaker 1: So of course nobody wants nuclear weapons to deploy. We 744 00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:02,200 Speaker 1: think most people don't. Uh. But also just like Eisenhower, 745 00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:08,560 Speaker 1: most people want transparency. Um. If you look at the 746 00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:11,960 Speaker 1: number of close calls we have had with nuclear weapons, 747 00:53:11,960 --> 00:53:14,840 Speaker 1: as we said at the top of this episode, you 748 00:53:15,840 --> 00:53:21,440 Speaker 1: will and should be terrified. Things got very very close, 749 00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:27,120 Speaker 1: like multiple times, the decision whether or not to go 750 00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:33,680 Speaker 1: to a nuclear war hinged on one person being reasonable, 751 00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:38,440 Speaker 1: like what like Matt, Matt, one guy. One guy was like, 752 00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:41,480 Speaker 1: I don't know, man, maybe we shouldn't launch the new 753 00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:45,520 Speaker 1: Jesse yet. Let's let's hang on. Everybody have a snack. 754 00:53:45,920 --> 00:53:50,040 Speaker 1: Except there was so much sweat being generated, and um, 755 00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:53,480 Speaker 1: I'm going to assume a generous amount of urine as well, 756 00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:59,960 Speaker 1: but who knows, um, because it's it's it was very 757 00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:03,879 Speaker 1: it It could have been the end. Okay, I don't 758 00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:07,120 Speaker 1: want to think about that anymore, man, Um that that's 759 00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:11,680 Speaker 1: all happening. This is all happening. One last note, a 760 00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:16,279 Speaker 1: bit of a current event. As we were recording this podcast, 761 00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:20,360 Speaker 1: Russia went public with its plans to follow the United 762 00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:25,759 Speaker 1: States and withdraw entirely from the Open Skies treaty, creating 763 00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:30,200 Speaker 1: a future that looks even more uncertain. So let us 764 00:54:30,200 --> 00:54:32,080 Speaker 1: know what you think, folks. We know we got in 765 00:54:32,120 --> 00:54:36,640 Speaker 1: the weeds a little bit on Um Jill politics and 766 00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:41,600 Speaker 1: on a very specific treaty, but there is there does 767 00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:45,520 Speaker 1: seem to be a larger pattern at play. Do you 768 00:54:45,719 --> 00:54:50,719 Speaker 1: think that these moves are legit? Is that the right 769 00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:53,879 Speaker 1: thing to do to pull out of these treaties? Um? 770 00:54:54,080 --> 00:54:57,960 Speaker 1: Are other countries not behaving in good faith or not 771 00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:01,719 Speaker 1: signing on in good faith? Is there something amiss with 772 00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:07,560 Speaker 1: this pattern of withdrawal? If so, what is amiss? Uh? 773 00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:13,160 Speaker 1: Do you give any credence to the repeated claims that 774 00:55:13,239 --> 00:55:17,960 Speaker 1: foreign powers have compromised areas of the US government? If so, 775 00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:21,279 Speaker 1: we would love to hear from you. If not, we 776 00:55:21,320 --> 00:55:23,200 Speaker 1: would also love to hear from you. We want to 777 00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:24,960 Speaker 1: We want to know your opinion. We try to make 778 00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:29,680 Speaker 1: ourselves easy to find. You can uh, dropped by Facebook, Instagram, Twitter. 779 00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:31,919 Speaker 1: You can find us there. We'd like to recommend Here's 780 00:55:31,920 --> 00:55:35,920 Speaker 1: Where It Gets Crazy, which is um rated by us 781 00:55:36,440 --> 00:55:40,360 Speaker 1: as the best website on the Internet, the best web page. 782 00:55:40,520 --> 00:55:43,239 Speaker 1: I should say absolutely. It is all you have to 783 00:55:43,280 --> 00:55:45,799 Speaker 1: do to join up. Is no one or more of 784 00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:49,000 Speaker 1: our names, the hosts or creators of this show. I'm 785 00:55:49,040 --> 00:55:51,840 Speaker 1: not going to tell you our names again. Hopefully you 786 00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:54,879 Speaker 1: remember from when we said them every episode that we've 787 00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:57,760 Speaker 1: ever made of this show. But what if people hate 788 00:55:57,920 --> 00:56:02,560 Speaker 1: social media? Matt, if you dislike that stuff, you can 789 00:56:02,680 --> 00:56:05,680 Speaker 1: use your telephone device to get in contact with us. 790 00:56:05,719 --> 00:56:11,080 Speaker 1: With your throat device. Uh, the thing that makes sounds 791 00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:15,160 Speaker 1: that you know I love you? Got it? You can 792 00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:19,000 Speaker 1: call our number. It is one eight three three std 793 00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:22,279 Speaker 1: w y t K. You can leave us a voicemail. 794 00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:24,839 Speaker 1: We will hear it, and you may end up on 795 00:56:24,840 --> 00:56:27,719 Speaker 1: one of the Listener Maile episodes. Just please tell us 796 00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:30,120 Speaker 1: if you don't want your voice to be included in 797 00:56:30,200 --> 00:56:34,520 Speaker 1: one of those episodes. Uh. And guess what This episode 798 00:56:35,480 --> 00:56:39,280 Speaker 1: was inspired by someone who sent us a voicemail. Someone 799 00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:44,600 Speaker 1: that goes by Hidalgo. Yes, thank you so much, Hidalgo. Seriously, 800 00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:49,759 Speaker 1: you've sent us several just great messages and uh, you 801 00:56:49,760 --> 00:56:53,360 Speaker 1: may guess that's not this person's real name, but Hidalgo. 802 00:56:53,640 --> 00:56:56,200 Speaker 1: Thank you, and if you would like to take page 803 00:56:56,239 --> 00:56:59,440 Speaker 1: from Hidalgos book, as we said, of course find us 804 00:56:59,480 --> 00:57:03,879 Speaker 1: on the internet. You can find us on your local telephone. 805 00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:06,799 Speaker 1: That's weird, I guess when you think about it, we're there, 806 00:57:06,840 --> 00:57:09,880 Speaker 1: We're on your phone. And if you don't care for 807 00:57:09,960 --> 00:57:15,439 Speaker 1: any of that that doesn't quite fly your nukes, then 808 00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:17,840 Speaker 1: you could always hit us up at our good old 809 00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:21,400 Speaker 1: fashioned email address where we are conspiracy at I heart 810 00:57:21,480 --> 00:57:42,600 Speaker 1: radio dot com. Stuff they don't want you to know.