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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? There were running again? So smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Stipid sixteen, just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

4
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Speaker 2: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: How shot with that shop with mind?

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Speaker 3: Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 2: That's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 4: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The love is left to Wanda, wide eyed, drilled.

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Speaker 1: Fibus how old Earth? Pick that happens? Hellori one.

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Speaker 3: Welcome back to Wonderful, the soccer betting podcast from the

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Speaker 3: Action Network. Money is Michael Leeboff joining me for this

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Speaker 3: episode as we preview the upcoming first legs of the

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Speaker 3: Champions League semi Finals. Is BJ Cunningham. Anthony is away

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Speaker 3: this week. BJ, we got two matches to get to

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Speaker 3: no English Premier League teams in the Champions League semi final.

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Speaker 3: Bit of a shock, but should be a lot of fun.

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Speaker 3: I think it's there's plenty of ways this thin can go.

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Speaker 3: Let's start with the headliner, I would say, which is

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Speaker 3: Tuesday at three pm Eastern time. Byron Munich hosting Real Madrid. Nobody,

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Speaker 3: I mean, I don't want to say nobody gave it

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Speaker 3: Bayern Munich a chance, but I don't think anyone really

26
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Speaker 3: rushed to back this team with the way the season

27
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Speaker 3: has been going, with the way like that, everyone's been

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Speaker 3: bickering with the coach.

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Speaker 1: The coach is a lame duck Coach'd.

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Speaker 3: Be pretty funny if they reneg on that now that

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Speaker 3: if they do win the Champions League or something funny.

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Speaker 1: But here we go.

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Speaker 3: They are at home plus one forty. Real Madrid coming

34
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Speaker 3: in plus one seventy five on the three way line

35
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Speaker 3: to advance byron is a plus one fifty underdog and

36
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Speaker 3: minus two hundred to reach the final.

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Speaker 1: I think that this first leg sets up okay for a.

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Speaker 3: Draw, with the way Real Madrid kind of looks at

39
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Speaker 3: these two leg knockout stages like we saw even I

40
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Speaker 3: mean the City match, It's it's hard to say that

41
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Speaker 3: they they wanted that to happen, right to go, uh draw, draw,

42
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Speaker 3: but and with the way the matches went out, But

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Speaker 3: it does feel like Angelotti always takes like a big

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Speaker 3: picture approach to these. We said this before the City

45
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Speaker 3: first leg, and I would wouldn't think, you know, one

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Speaker 3: to one or even like a nil Nils out of

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Speaker 3: the question here. So he's going to look to try

48
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Speaker 3: to shut this down and keep things tidy, take this

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Speaker 3: big crowd out of out of the equation.

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Speaker 1: So I think something along the lines of a draw

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Speaker 1: looks good.

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Speaker 3: I think plus two fifty, And that kind of goes

53
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Speaker 3: into you know what you're gonna say, because if we

54
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Speaker 3: do come out of here with with a draw, I mean,

55
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Speaker 3: both teams would have an opportunity in that second leg.

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Speaker 1: But you're looking at the underdog here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Morris is a price thing, you know. And I

58
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Speaker 2: came into this semi final and we were waiting for

59
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Speaker 2: the odds to come out. I kind of expected, you know,

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Speaker 2: Real Madrid to be probably around minus one fifty minus

61
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Speaker 2: one forty in that range, because you know, if you

62
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Speaker 2: look at the underlying numbers for the both these teams

63
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Speaker 2: throughout the season. I mean, Bayern Munich has been better

64
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Speaker 2: in the Bundesligue. A lot of it has to do

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Speaker 2: the fact that obviously they've been beating up on all

66
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Speaker 2: these lower end teams. But it's not like La League

67
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Speaker 2: is that much more difficult of a league than the

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Speaker 2: Bundesligue is this year, so you kind of have to think,

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Speaker 2: like okay, like, yes, they'll probably overweight Real Madrid here,

70
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Speaker 2: and then they just came out and opened Real Madrid

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Speaker 2: like minus two twenty to advance here, which I think

72
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Speaker 2: is crazy. And I'm not saying I really even like

73
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Speaker 2: Byron that much, but you know, in that first leg,

74
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Speaker 2: excuse me, the second leg against Arsenal, what I was

75
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Speaker 2: most impressed with was their ability out of possession to

76
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Speaker 2: just stifle Arsenal, Like they played a really really good

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Speaker 2: passive mid block. They Arsenal could not get through the

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Speaker 2: middle of the pitch, and that same game plan they

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Speaker 2: could bring here to against against Real Madrid. Because what

80
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Speaker 2: we know about Real Madrid is in the matchup with

81
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Speaker 2: City is why you know we liked it so much,

82
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Speaker 2: is that because they're just a better team without the

83
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Speaker 2: ball and when they're playing in transition, like not saying

84
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Speaker 2: they're a bad team, and when they have the ball,

85
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Speaker 2: like they've done it really well in my leago this season,

86
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Speaker 2: but when they play these elite teams, like they have

87
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Speaker 2: the pace and the ability to wreck them with Bellingham,

88
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Speaker 2: but he's junior and Rodrigo so The one thing about

89
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Speaker 2: Thomas Tuchel that has remained true throughout his entire career,

90
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Speaker 2: and he did it against Arsenal is when he hones

91
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Speaker 2: in on a weakness from the opponent's team, he blitzes

92
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Speaker 2: it over and over and over again, and sometimes it's

93
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Speaker 2: to his detriment. Sometimes it backfires on him. But against

94
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Speaker 2: Arsenal he lighted Guerrero and Masarawi on the same left

95
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Speaker 2: hand side. Essentially play Guerrero as like a left winger

96
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Speaker 2: because it helped them to be solid defensively. And those

97
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Speaker 2: two are great guys combining down the left hand pitch.

98
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Speaker 2: Both are great at doing overlaps and trading chances via crosses,

99
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Speaker 2: which is ultimately how they scored the game winning goal.

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Speaker 2: Real Madrid out of possession is going to a.

101
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Speaker 4: Very interesting thing here.

102
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Speaker 2: Because you saw in Outclassico they're not a good pressing team.

103
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Speaker 2: Like if they're forced to press and like you know,

104
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Speaker 2: put the onuses on them, they're not good at doing that.

105
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Speaker 2: And even playing in a passive defensive block.

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Speaker 4: I mean.

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Speaker 2: Not saying they were like, oh my gosh, they were

108
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Speaker 2: incredibly lucky to get out of it against City, but

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Speaker 2: I mean they did conceive thirty three shots and two

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Speaker 2: point seven expected goals. So if they played very passively

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Speaker 2: against Byron, who have outstanding ball carriers finishers all over

112
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Speaker 2: the pitch, Harry Kane's been an incredible form. I don't

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Speaker 2: know if this is really the best matchup for them,

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Speaker 2: Even though City is a better team than Byron.

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Speaker 4: I think Byron is well.

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Speaker 2: More tactically versed and much more willing to play without

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Speaker 2: the ball and play in transition. At least they showed

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Speaker 2: that against Arsenal, and I think they will try and

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Speaker 2: do that because you know, I kind of go back

120
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Speaker 2: to their match against Leverkusen and Leverkusen beat them three.

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Speaker 2: Nothing well Levercousen did in that match is they just

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Speaker 2: gave Byron the ball, and I just said, hey, we're

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Speaker 2: gonna be solid defensively, we're gonna press you, and then

124
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Speaker 2: we're gonna beat you in transition, which is probably what

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Speaker 2: Real Madrid's gonna do here. So I'm very interested see

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Speaker 2: who actually controls more possession in this first leg and

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Speaker 2: even in the.

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Speaker 4: Second leg here.

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Speaker 2: But again we're getting to a pretty crazy price on

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Speaker 2: Real Madrid. I guess just because Byron's in a lame

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Speaker 2: duck status. But I can tell you this much like

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Speaker 2: I think the player is gonna care about winning the

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Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, it's not like it's like Byron's not motivated anymore.

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Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, so I like Byron to advance a plus

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Speaker 2: one fifty five to the final. I just think Real

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Speaker 2: Madrid's a little rally here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I tend to agree with you too,

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Speaker 3: like I think the Jaw is my favorite bet here.

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Speaker 1: It is.

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Speaker 3: It is just quite peculiar that we got the this

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Speaker 3: Champions League set up, where, of course, so the teams

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Speaker 3: that are battling for the title, fighting tooth and nail

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Speaker 3: for the title in the Premier League, out of it,

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Speaker 3: Byron is on the beach. In terms of the Bundesliga,

145
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Speaker 3: Real Madrid is far like you know, they're done. They've

146
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Speaker 3: they've basically wrapped up La Liga, and Dortmund of course

147
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Speaker 3: not involved in the Bundesliga either. PSG is all but

148
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Speaker 3: wrapped up the legal So it's every every team's sole

149
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Speaker 3: focus is going to be on the Champions League.

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Speaker 1: It's like the league doesn't even exist to any of

151
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Speaker 1: these teams.

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Speaker 3: Which is quite peculiar as well. So not too much

153
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Speaker 3: like try to like thread the needle with in terms

154
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Speaker 3: of how they're going to approach or lineups, et cetera.

155
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Speaker 3: But yeah, these real Madrid draws are they're they're quite

156
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Speaker 3: interesting here, I think Ancelotti. Yeah, you know, just and

157
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Speaker 3: it makes sense right, Like they're they're able to both

158
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Speaker 3: shut down a game and also be a team that

159
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Speaker 3: they have the the guys who could create moments of

160
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Speaker 3: magic to to help but come back whether it's one

161
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Speaker 3: or two goals down. So that's where I'll be looking.

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Speaker 1: Let's look at Wednesday, this one.

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Speaker 3: I feel like it's going to be one way traffic

164
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Speaker 3: between UH Dortmund and PSG. Dortmund is the home team

165
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Speaker 3: for like one, they are plus two hundred two fans

166
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Speaker 3: and minus two to seventy five is a price you

167
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Speaker 3: pay on PSG to make the final in terms of

168
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Speaker 3: the freeway line at bat three six to five. Right

169
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Speaker 3: now it's dortmun plus one seventy is a home dog.

170
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Speaker 3: PSG plus one forty. The tie here would pay plus

171
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Speaker 3: two sixty. I mean, this Dortmann team has been something

172
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Speaker 3: else in the Champions League. I think it's one of

173
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Speaker 3: the more remarkable stories of this this soccer season, and

174
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Speaker 3: it feels like nobody's ready to talk about it just yet,

175
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Speaker 3: because they want to see if they could get through

176
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Speaker 3: another you know, another tough another tough customer, and a

177
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Speaker 3: team that they were in the group of death with

178
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Speaker 3: in the Champions League that everybody thought, including us, thought

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Speaker 3: that they'd finished last in behind Milan, Newcastle and PSG.

180
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Speaker 3: Then they get through the knockout stages and see off

181
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Speaker 3: at Letty, which was heartbreaking for us. But you know,

182
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Speaker 3: there's something to be said. I think about these teams

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Speaker 3: that are able to scratch and claw their way through

184
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Speaker 3: you know, first couple knockout stages, but this this looks

185
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Speaker 3: like a bridge too far considering the matchup, right, Like,

186
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Speaker 3: I think PSG could be putting up something crooked here.

187
00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,320
Speaker 3: I like the plus one forty on PSG on the

188
00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:10,000
Speaker 3: three way line on Wednesday. I think that they can.

189
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Speaker 3: I don't want to say they can name it. That's

190
00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:16,600
Speaker 3: too disrespectful to Dortmund. But I do think that it's

191
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Speaker 3: going to be tough setting for the Germans to slow

192
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Speaker 3: down this PSG offense.

193
00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:22,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree.

194
00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:25,200
Speaker 2: I like PSG's team total over one and a half months,

195
00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:28,400
Speaker 2: one fifteen so yeah. Third, like you said, they were

196
00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:30,600
Speaker 2: in the group of death together the third meeting between

197
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Speaker 2: the two.

198
00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:34,319
Speaker 4: There were a couple problems.

199
00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,880
Speaker 2: That existed for Dortmund in both of those meetings that

200
00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:40,160
Speaker 2: I don't know if it really are correctable going into

201
00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:43,160
Speaker 2: this one. The first is is that when Doorman had

202
00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:46,360
Speaker 2: possession in PSG's final third and they lost the ball,

203
00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:50,040
Speaker 2: PSG was just looking to break just immediately and quickly.

204
00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:52,640
Speaker 2: And they obviously have some of the fastest players in

205
00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:55,240
Speaker 2: the entire world, and Doorman, by nature of their back line,

206
00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,320
Speaker 2: is just slow. So PSG just kept making runs off

207
00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:00,360
Speaker 2: their back line. It was one pass over the top,

208
00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:03,240
Speaker 2: who was in Bappe, Khulamane and in Male. We're all

209
00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:06,720
Speaker 2: getting in behind Dortmund time and time again. And the

210
00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:11,640
Speaker 2: second problem is that Dortmund has really struggled in both

211
00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:14,320
Speaker 2: those meeting defending in wide areas. Kimmy would always come

212
00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:17,120
Speaker 2: up and they would play one to two combinations with

213
00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:20,160
Speaker 2: him and Male and just create chances via crosses over

214
00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:24,000
Speaker 2: and over and over again. So over the two legs,

215
00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:29,200
Speaker 2: PSG scored three times, they created five point two expecting goals,

216
00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:31,400
Speaker 2: They hit the post twice, they had a certain goal

217
00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:32,680
Speaker 2: saved off the line by Soule.

218
00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:36,199
Speaker 4: In the second meeting, PSG had thirty.

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Speaker 2: Six shots and eighty touches in dormance penalty area over

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Speaker 2: those two meetings. The other aspect of what PSG had

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Speaker 2: success with is, especially in the first meeting in Paris,

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Speaker 2: they pressed Dortmann relentlessly and Dortmann could not get the

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Speaker 2: ball out of their own final third to for large,

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Speaker 2: large stretches of the match, and that's why they ended

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Speaker 2: up losing to nothing. And that just comes down to

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Speaker 2: the category. Categorical problem with Dortmund is that when they

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Speaker 2: try to be a build up team, they have largely.

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Speaker 4: Been unsuccessful with it. Like we saw that's how Athletic.

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Speaker 2: Go scored off of them, like when they were playing

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Speaker 2: in Spain. It was just dumb mistakes and build up

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Speaker 2: and they can very well do it again here because

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Speaker 2: PSG over those two meetings had passed the per defense

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Speaker 2: paction of six point eight and sixteen high turnovers. So

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Speaker 2: PSG's going to press them, Dortmund is going to have

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Speaker 2: to play direct or they're if they try and bottle

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Speaker 2: the back. I think they're almost certain going to make mistakes.

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Speaker 2: So you know, I think that this is again like

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Speaker 2: you said, one way traffic, I don't really want to

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Speaker 2: back PSG's defense quite frankly, because if they try to

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Speaker 2: press here in Dormant like Dormant did have success getting

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Speaker 2: through their press, like it wasn't just like it was like,

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Speaker 2: oh my gosh, they couldn't do anything. As the game

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Speaker 2: went on, they got better and better at getting through it,

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Speaker 2: but those countlessness takes end up costing them in terms

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Speaker 2: of goals. So would just rather back PSG's offense against

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Speaker 2: Dorton's defense, which you know, the Train defenses, defense and

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Speaker 2: problems are still there like they got and they have

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Speaker 2: a much tougher encounter this weekend where they have to

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Speaker 2: go to Life Sable. PSG gets kind of tune up

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Speaker 2: against Lahoff again in league on. So yeah, I'm just

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Speaker 2: going to target PSG's attack. Projected them for one to

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Speaker 2: pointy eight goals, so over one and a half minus

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Speaker 2: one fifteen on PSG's team total of me.

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Speaker 3: Okay, before we get into the Europa League and the

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Speaker 3: Europa Conference League, let's remind you that wonder goal is

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Speaker 1: Terms, conditions and restrictions apply. Okay.

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Speaker 3: Europa League time, it is Marseille and Adalanta, Roma and

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Speaker 3: Leverkusen in the final four. There other side in the

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Speaker 3: Conference League semifinals Aston Villa and Olympiacos out of Greece,

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Speaker 3: and then Fiorentina and Club Bruge.

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Speaker 1: What do you got?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? So I like Adalanta in the first leg.

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Speaker 2: Here on the road Toronto bett plus one oh a,

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Speaker 2: which is available at bet three sixty five. Adalanta is

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Speaker 2: just a really fun team to watch right now doing

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Speaker 2: really good stuff with their defense and then build up.

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Speaker 2: You know, Gasparini is a guy who wants to build

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Speaker 2: out with a back three, use a lot of passing

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Speaker 2: triangles to get through the opponent's pressure. Marseille under Getusa

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Speaker 2: was you know, they were really actually really good, they

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Speaker 2: just weren't getting results, and he was more of a

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Speaker 2: let's let's control possession, let's press from.

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Speaker 4: The front, let's be relentless.

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Speaker 2: Whereas now they're under guess who was obviously the manager

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Speaker 2: of Ivory Coast who got fired during Afcon. He's more

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Speaker 2: of just like the substitute teacher of just like, you know,

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Speaker 2: let's just play a little more passively, let's play on

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Speaker 2: the break more in transition, which is actually kind of

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Speaker 2: I think benefits Marseille more and more.

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Speaker 4: But the thing about.

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Speaker 2: Adelanta is their fantastic defense, not only in transition but

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Speaker 2: in rest defense. E shack Hin has been an incredible

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Speaker 2: central central midfielder for them that can really lock down

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Speaker 2: Abamiyang and Adelanta might have the hot striker in the planet,

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Speaker 2: Jean Lucas Samak's Kamaka fifteen goals in twenty point one

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Speaker 2: to nineties, scored seven goals in his last seven appearances.

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Speaker 2: He's a big time aerial threat in the box. He's

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Speaker 2: really good at hold up play. So you know, Adelante's

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Speaker 2: underlying metrics are a little bit worse than Marseilles here

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Speaker 2: in terms of but you know, Syria O is obviously

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Speaker 2: a way more difficult league than League on, so I

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Speaker 2: did project at Alante as a small road favorite. This

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Speaker 2: is also a tough run in here for Marseille. They've

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Speaker 2: got to play a lot of really difficult matches. They

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Speaker 2: had to play in the midweek against to Nise, then

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Speaker 2: on the weekend they got to play lones in a

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Speaker 2: high pressure match to get actually get into a Europa

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Speaker 2: Conference League spot and leg on and now.

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Speaker 4: They have to play on Alanta.

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Speaker 2: There's just a lot of matches stacked on top of

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Speaker 2: to There are a lot of high stakes matches. So

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Speaker 2: I do like at Alanta and then in the Conference league,

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Speaker 2: I like Club Bruges against Fiorentina plus a half plus

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Speaker 2: one twenty. Club Bruge is putting up just great underlying

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Speaker 2: metrics in the Belgian Pro League which are in the

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Speaker 2: playoffs right now, and plus one point one to three

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Speaker 2: expect a gold differential per ninety minutes. They've just been

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Speaker 2: routing essentially everybody both in Belgium and throughout the Europa

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Speaker 2: Conference League haven't really played a team of the stature

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Speaker 2: of Fiorentina yet, which is a little concerning. But if

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Speaker 2: you look at Fiorentina as a whole for the season,

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Speaker 2: they're right around to even expect a goal differential, which

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Speaker 2: is kind of weird when you dig into their metrics

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Speaker 2: because they're the number one field tilt team in Italy.

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Speaker 2: They're number one a, getting the opponent's penalty box like

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Speaker 2: they're number one, and getting the final third. The problem

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Speaker 2: with Uorantina is just everything once they've reached the final

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Speaker 2: third just kind of breaks down, like they don't have

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Speaker 2: a consistent striker that they can get the ball. They've

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Speaker 2: been lying on their midfielders just hitting bangers from outside

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Speaker 2: the box. And the other thing about Fiorentina and maybe

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Speaker 2: why they're at this like even expected gold frenchial because

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Speaker 2: even their defensive metrics are good. Is there one of

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Speaker 2: the worst transition teams in Syria A and there's not

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Speaker 2: many teams in Syria that can break with the pace

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Speaker 2: that Club Bruses has so I think Fiorentina is like

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Speaker 2: vastly overvalued here. They've been a very average team throughout

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Speaker 2: the season, and the market just continues to value them

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Speaker 2: like a top six Syria A team when they're more

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Speaker 2: like the eighth or ninth best. So I like Club

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Speaker 2: Bruches here plus a half at plus one twenty. I

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Speaker 2: also like them to advance at one point fifty eight,

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Speaker 2: and if you really believe in them, you might as

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Speaker 2: well back them at seven to one to win the

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Speaker 2: conference league if you think they're going to get through here,

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Speaker 2: which is another big price.

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Speaker 4: So kind of all over club brush here.

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Speaker 2: Any one of those three bets I think has a

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Speaker 2: lot of value here against Fiorentina.

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Speaker 1: Friends Club Bruges.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, things have changed since.

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Speaker 2: You know, don't go back to our shows last year

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Speaker 2: and listen to what I said about them, But things

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Speaker 2: have changed. They actually a funny story, Michael. They were

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Speaker 2: playing really well and then for whatever reason, they fired

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Speaker 2: their manager. So they've been a care caretaker manager.

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Speaker 4: And they've won every match hundred she's five straight.

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Speaker 2: So I guess a little new manager bounds still happening

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Speaker 2: for them, But I don't know.

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Speaker 4: Weird things are going on with them, but they just

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Speaker 4: keep winning.

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Speaker 1: All right. That'll do it for this episode.

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Speaker 3: Hopefully you guys are all set up for the Champions

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Speaker 3: League Semifinals coming your way on Tuesday Wednesday. We'll be back,

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Speaker 3: of course, recording Wednesday night to preview the upcoming Premier

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Speaker 3: League slate. But until then, thank you for listening, Please rate,

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Speaker 3: review and subscribe. Thank you to our producer Noah and

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Speaker 3: of course our sponsors BET three six five.

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Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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