Speaker 1: All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume.
Speaker 1: Have you Wednesday, everybody. I hope all of you guys
Speaker 1: are having a great week so far. I'm actually recording
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Speaker 1: away because I figured, Hey, why not just knock out
Speaker 1: Lakers Grizzlies right now? So that's the series we're gonna
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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk some basketball. So a couple of
Speaker 1: quick series notes before we get into the weeds. The
Speaker 1: Grizzlies are a minus one thirty favorite. I had I
Speaker 1: predicted during our live instant reaction last night that'd be
Speaker 1: very close, a very slight favorite one way or the other.
Speaker 1: Turns out the Grizzlies are a slight favorite. I think
Speaker 1: that makes some sense. The Lakers are playing some sloppy
Speaker 1: basketball coming into this series. The Lakers did win the
Speaker 1: season series two to one. All three games were weird,
Speaker 1: and the first one Anthony Davis was out. The Lakers
Speaker 1: were playing this weird group with Lebron and a bunch
Speaker 1: of the pre deadline guys, and they had this wild
Speaker 1: fourth quarter comeback to come back and win. And then
Speaker 1: in the second game, it was in Memphis post deadline,
Speaker 1: but Lebron wasn't playing and they didn't quite have enough
Speaker 1: shot creation. John Morant and had this massive third quarter
Speaker 1: and the Grizzlies one. And then they played one additional time,
Speaker 1: this time at Crypto com Arena. No Lebron or John Morant,
Speaker 1: and the Grizzlies didn't have enough shot creation and the
Speaker 1: Lakers won a low scoring affair at home. Stephen Adams
Speaker 1: and Brandon Clark will both miss the entire series, So
Speaker 1: there's a lot of pressure on Jaren Jackson in particular
Speaker 1: in this series to play a lot of minutes and
Speaker 1: to avoid getting into foul trouble against the Lakers team
Speaker 1: that is great at drawing fouls. One of the big
Speaker 1: this is very important, especially as we head into this
Speaker 1: series because it's a narrative right now. A big story
Speaker 1: coming out of that Minnesota game last night was the
Speaker 1: free throw differential. I think in the fourth quarter in
Speaker 1: ot the Lakers took seventeen compared to just three for
Speaker 1: the Timberwolves, which was a Mike Conley foul right right
Speaker 1: at the buzzer and at the end of the fourth quarter,
Speaker 1: right And this has been a theme throughout the entire
Speaker 1: season this last half of the season, as teams have
Speaker 1: been hyper focused on the Lakers and their free throw differential.
Speaker 1: It is extremely simple. The Lakers are the best team
Speaker 1: in the league at getting to the free throw line.
Speaker 1: They lead the league and free throw attempts per one
Speaker 1: hundred possessions, and they are the best team in the
Speaker 1: league gets stopping other teams from getting to the free
Speaker 1: throw line. They allow the fewest free throw attempts per
Speaker 1: one hundred possessions. They are the only team in the
Speaker 1: league that is good at both. As a result of that,
Speaker 1: they have a massive free throw differential compared to other
Speaker 1: teams around in the league. There's not a single other
Speaker 1: team in the league who's top five in both categories.
Speaker 1: There's so at the end of the day, just naturally
Speaker 1: they're gonna have a bigger advantage there. I thought Ben Taylor,
Speaker 1: some of you guys know him from Thinking Basketball, he
Speaker 1: did a whole thing on this when this was a
Speaker 1: big story a couple weeks ago. But it really just
Speaker 1: has to do with the way this particular season has
Speaker 1: played out. This Lakers group and their free throw differential
Speaker 1: isn't even in the top fifteen for teams in this century.
Speaker 1: So from twenty twenty to twenty twenty three, or excuse me,
Speaker 1: from the year two thousand to twenty twenty three, there
Speaker 1: have been sixteen NBA teams that had better free throw
Speaker 1: differentials than the Lakers. It just so happens in this
Speaker 1: season the Lakers are the only team that are good
Speaker 1: at both. And that's why it looks funky what happened
Speaker 1: in that game last night. In the fourth quarter, the
Speaker 1: Lakers started switching everything, which shut down all of Minnesota's
Speaker 1: driving lanes. They played much better at the point of attack,
Speaker 1: and so Minnesota was just passing the ball around on
Speaker 1: the perimeter and jacking up late clock threes. That's not
Speaker 1: going to draw a foul. Meanwhile, on the other end
Speaker 1: of the floor, it's Lebron, it's Dennis Schroder, and it's
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis just barreling to the basket every single time,
Speaker 1: initiating a ton of contact. The Lakers have a lot
Speaker 1: of guys who are good at getting to the foul line,
Speaker 1: and defensively, they defend without fouling, which is mostly a
Speaker 1: coaching thing. It's something that coaches preach at every level
Speaker 1: of basketball. So don't buy into that particular narrative. Doesn't
Speaker 1: make any sense if the league was rigging games for
Speaker 1: the Lakers. I promise you they call that foul when
Speaker 1: Jason Tatum is driving, When Lebron's driving to the basket
Speaker 1: and Jason Tatum hacks him, I promise you they call
Speaker 1: that foul. When Lebron James is driving to the basket
Speaker 1: and Christian Would hacks him at the buzzer, I promise
Speaker 1: you they call that foul. And Joel embiad Is grabbing
Speaker 1: Russell Westbrook's arm right in front of the ref on
Speaker 1: the final possession of the game. If they were trying
Speaker 1: to rig games for the Lakers, they're doing a horrible
Speaker 1: job of it. It's not a conspiracy, it's just a talent.
Speaker 1: It's a skill that the Lakers have that no other
Speaker 1: team in the league has right now, and that's why
Speaker 1: they have that particular advantage Memphis, for example, fifteenth and
Speaker 1: getting to the line, fourteenth and stopping teams from getting
Speaker 1: to the line. So guess what, the Lakers are probably
Speaker 1: going to win the free throw differential battle throughout this
Speaker 1: entire series because Memphis is extremely average at it and
Speaker 1: the Lakers are literally the best at it. So it'll
Speaker 1: be a narrative again throughout this series. But remember what's
Speaker 1: happening with the basketball. This is a team that is
Speaker 1: great at this specific skill. All right. Like we did
Speaker 1: with our other series previous, we're gonna focus in on
Speaker 1: some major matchups that could go one way or another. First,
Speaker 1: can the Lakers guard Ja Morant? The Grizzlies have super
Speaker 1: straightforward matchups for Lebron James and Anthony Davis. Right, Dylan
Speaker 1: Brooks is going to guard Lebron probably every minute that
Speaker 1: he's on the floor. Jaren Jackson Junior is gonna guard
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis probably every minute that he's on the floor. Now,
Speaker 1: who knows if those guys will do a good job, right,
Speaker 1: they could get into foul trouble Lebron and ad or
Speaker 1: two of the best players in the league. Right, So
Speaker 1: they might end up losing that matchup anyway. But the
Speaker 1: athletically and from a size and physicality standpoint, those matchups
Speaker 1: make pretty good sense. With the Lakers starters, they don't
Speaker 1: have a player that naturally matches up with John Morant
Speaker 1: very well. That's just a fact, right. Dennis Schroeder is
Speaker 1: somebody they have on the bench that can do it,
Speaker 1: but D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reeves they're not going to
Speaker 1: be able to stay in front of John Morand I
Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if if you saw if you saw
Speaker 1: darvinham try throwing Jared Vanderbilt at him on some occasions,
Speaker 1: just to see if he can. But they don't really
Speaker 1: have a straight up matchup that can do well guarding
Speaker 1: John at the point of attack. That's just a reality.
Speaker 1: So they need to do two things in particular to
Speaker 1: counteract that. And by the way, John Morand is averaging
Speaker 1: thirty one points per game against the Lakers this year
Speaker 1: in two games, albeit somewhat inefficiently. In their one big win,
Speaker 1: which is post deadline without Lebron, John Morand had this
Speaker 1: magnificent third quarter. I can't remember exactly how many he had,
Speaker 1: you a twenty something in the quarter. But they had
Speaker 1: an extended stretch where they just couldn't do anything with
Speaker 1: John Morand. And so they're gonna have to figure out
Speaker 1: how to contain John Morand in this series. Again, two
Speaker 1: things that I think they need to do. First of all,
Speaker 1: play Dennis Schroeder as many minutes as he's capable of playing.
Speaker 1: He doesn't need to start. And it doesn't even need
Speaker 1: to come at the expense of Austin and Dilo, because
Speaker 1: you gotta remember, there's ninety six minutes available at the
Speaker 1: two guard positions, right, So Austin and Dilo can both
Speaker 1: play thirty two minutes and there's still thirty two minutes
Speaker 1: they're available. So what I would do is I cut
Speaker 1: Malik Beasley potentially entirely out of the rotation to play
Speaker 1: Dennis as much as possible, And what I would do
Speaker 1: is I'd start with your normal starters. I'd bring Dennison
Speaker 1: as the first sub, like around the six minute mark
Speaker 1: for probably Delo right so you can run Delo with
Speaker 1: the bench group, and then the rest of the game,
Speaker 1: I would mirror Dennis's shifts with Jah Morant's minutes so
Speaker 1: that you can keep him on jaw as much as possible.
Speaker 1: Dennis Router is not some Ja Morant elixir that's going
Speaker 1: to solve that problem entirely, but he's the lakers best
Speaker 1: point of attack defender. He's one of the better point
Speaker 1: of attack defenders in the league. And at the very least,
Speaker 1: he's gonna make things more difficult on JAB and that
Speaker 1: is a big that goes a big step towards making
Speaker 1: it so he doesn't get as aggressively downhill into the
Speaker 1: teeth of the Laker defense. Secondly, the Lakers need to
Speaker 1: find a way to make Ja Morant play in a
Speaker 1: crowd when he does get downhill. This is a major
Speaker 1: matchup piece that I like for the Lakers because Memphis
Speaker 1: is one of the worst spot up teams in the league.
Speaker 1: There are only three teams in the entire NBA that
Speaker 1: are worse at converting spot up possessions than the Memphis Grizzlies,
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Hawks, the Houston Rockets, and the Charlotte Hornets.
Speaker 1: Those are the only three teams. They are twenty seven.
Speaker 1: They convert spot up possessions at less than a point
Speaker 1: per possession. Now, they brought in Luke Nard to confront
Speaker 1: this a little bit, but it goes beyond just shooting
Speaker 1: the ball. We saw this when we were talking about
Speaker 1: Isaac Accorro and the Calves and their spot up players
Speaker 1: converting spot up possessions. Part of it is knocking down
Speaker 1: open threes, but a lot of it is attacking closeouts,
Speaker 1: especially in the NBA, because teams are so dialed in
Speaker 1: defensively that a lot of times higher level clothes at
Speaker 1: attacking is what allows you to convert spot up possessions.
Speaker 1: For example, there's a late play I think it was
Speaker 1: in OT or late fourth quarter of that. I think
Speaker 1: it was in the OT actually of that Lakers grizz
Speaker 1: Lakers Timberwolves game. Ruey hot Chamura catches in the right corner,
Speaker 1: He pump fakes, shooter goes by him, he gets downhill
Speaker 1: into the lane. It takes a step back in the lane.
Speaker 1: He ended up missing it went in and out kind
Speaker 1: of a toilet, bowled around the rim and came out.
Speaker 1: But it was like a high level step back ten footer.
Speaker 1: That was actually like a pretty damn good shot. And
Speaker 1: the shot that Ruey Hotchimura's hitting at a high clip
Speaker 1: this season around fifty percent and out of a great
Speaker 1: defensive possession from Minnesota. So you get a pretty damn
Speaker 1: good shot out of a great defensive possession because of
Speaker 1: high level of closeout attacking, counting catch and shoot threes
Speaker 1: and everything they do attacking off the dribble. In those
Speaker 1: closeout situations, the Grizzlies are converting those at less than
Speaker 1: a point per possession. That's a legitimate problem for this
Speaker 1: particular team. That is going to allow the Lakers to
Speaker 1: load up in the paint. It's also going to put
Speaker 1: it's also gonna put the Grizzlies in a pretty difficult predicament.
Speaker 1: I'm really curious to see how Taylor Jenkins confronts this
Speaker 1: issue because they're gonna have a classic conundrum of weighing
Speaker 1: size and athleticism versus offensive skill. My guess is that
Speaker 1: when the chips are down in this series, Taylor Jenkins
Speaker 1: is gonna go with offensive skill, especially with how good
Speaker 1: this Laker defense can be and some of their weaknesses
Speaker 1: at the point of attack. The guards are the weak
Speaker 1: point of the Laker defense, right, so I expect them
Speaker 1: to go with John Morant, Tias Jones, with Desmond Bane,
Speaker 1: Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson. That gives them the best
Speaker 1: combination of keeping their two best defenders on the floor
Speaker 1: while also having a great amount of offensive skill on
Speaker 1: the floor. Right Tyas Jones brings a little bit more
Speaker 1: of a methodical approach to his high pick and roll
Speaker 1: attack compared to what John Morant does. Here's the problem there.
Speaker 1: Three of those guys are six five and under and
Speaker 1: Dillon Brooks's six six. As a matter of fact, post deadline,
Speaker 1: the Grizzlies are twenty twenty fifth in rebounding post deadline,
Speaker 1: and the Lakers are fourth in rebounding. So what used
Speaker 1: to be an outstanding rebounding team for the Memphis Grizzlies
Speaker 1: is now one of the very worst rebounding teams in
Speaker 1: the league. Because that's what happens when you remove guys
Speaker 1: like Steven Adams and Brandon Clark from the equation Brandon
Speaker 1: Clark in particular because Steven Adams he was gonna be
Speaker 1: a guy that wasn't gonna play a ton of minutes
Speaker 1: anyways in the playoffs. He's a guy that can be
Speaker 1: exploited in a lot of ways, right, But although it
Speaker 1: just getting two shifts out of him usually helps, Brandon
Speaker 1: Clark was this other versatile athletic forward, especially next to
Speaker 1: Jaren Jackson. When the two of those guys would play
Speaker 1: together this year, they were kicking team's asses. I want
Speaker 1: to say they were like ten points positive per one
Speaker 1: hundred possessions with the two of them on the floor together.
Speaker 1: Taking him off the floor and having to slide Dylan
Speaker 1: Brooks down into that power forward position, or having to
Speaker 1: go with a limited offensive player like a guy like
Speaker 1: David Roddy or a guy like or going big with
Speaker 1: a guy like Xavier Tillman, which I expect him to
Speaker 1: start with Xavier Tilman, but it'll probably be a one
Speaker 1: shift player each half. But it's gonna put them in
Speaker 1: that conundrum of which way they're gonna go. They're gonna
Speaker 1: be able to pack the paint, especially against the starters,
Speaker 1: and they're going to even in their best lineups help
Speaker 1: heavy off of Jaren Jackson and help heavy off of
Speaker 1: Dylan Brooks, and I think that's going to allow them
Speaker 1: to make things more congested for John Morand, but it's
Speaker 1: going to be at the expense of conceding shots to
Speaker 1: Brooks and Jaren Jackson. And they've been shooting the ball
Speaker 1: pretty well lately last fifteen games in the regular season,
Speaker 1: Dillon Brooks thirty eight percent from three, Jaren Jackson forty
Speaker 1: two percent from three, So they might be able to
Speaker 1: shoot them out of that coverage. But Battle one, can
Speaker 1: they contain John morand keep Dennis Schroeder on him as
Speaker 1: much as possible, clogged the pain as much as possible?
Speaker 1: Battle number two is that rebounding battle. Can the Grizzlies
Speaker 1: hold up under the physical onslaught of Lebron James and
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroeder again with those smaller lineups, Say,
Speaker 1: for instance, you go with the closing lineup that the
Speaker 1: Lakers went with tonight, So Dennis Schroeder doesn't matter if
Speaker 1: it's Schroeder Dlow, but it's called Schroeder Reeves and then
Speaker 1: Ruby hotchmurro Lebron James, Anthony Davis, that's seven foot six nine,
Speaker 1: six nine. So if you go with Jaren Jackson, Dillon Brooks,
Speaker 1: Desmond Bain, that's what's Sharon Jackson six eleven six eleven
Speaker 1: six six six five. That's why that group has not
Speaker 1: rebounded well after the deadline, and so as a result,
Speaker 1: they're going to have to figure out how to weigh
Speaker 1: that gap because if they just like we saw with
Speaker 1: Atlanta Miami today, even if you get more stops, or
Speaker 1: i should say last night, even if you get more stops,
Speaker 1: if you get bludgeoned on the glass, you will lose
Speaker 1: the series. And again, you can go big with Xavier Tillman,
Speaker 1: but he's not a good defensive player and he kind
Speaker 1: of jinks things up even worse for them Offensively. The
Speaker 1: Grizzlies are five point two points better per one hundred
Speaker 1: possessions this year when Xavier Tilman is off the floor.
Speaker 1: So Taylor Jenkins is gonna have a challenge on his
Speaker 1: hands to try to figure out how to contend with
Speaker 1: that physical back and forth. I want to credit Memphis
Speaker 1: because they've still somehow been eighteen and ten post headline
Speaker 1: despite the loss of those guys, And it really comes
Speaker 1: down to a handful of things. They're still defending really well.
Speaker 1: They're eighth in defense over that span. They're the best
Speaker 1: team in the league at taking care of the basketball
Speaker 1: over that span, so credit to Ties Jones and John Morand.
Speaker 1: And they're winning their clutch basketball games. I want to say,
Speaker 1: they're nine and five in games that have been within
Speaker 1: five points in less than five minutes remaining, So they're
Speaker 1: grinding out wins. This has kind of subtly become a
Speaker 1: team that has a lot of winning characteristics, and again
Speaker 1: that's gonna happen. This is two consecutive years now where
Speaker 1: the Grizzlies have just won a shit ton of basketball games.
Speaker 1: So as much as we talk trash about them and
Speaker 1: make fun of Dylan Brooks for talking all the shit
Speaker 1: that he does and all the John Morante stuff, these
Speaker 1: are some winners here. Now it's a different level. They
Speaker 1: have to stamp that with playoff success, but they have
Speaker 1: some talent there. This particular matchup, though, presents some physical
Speaker 1: issues for them. Again, the Lakers are a team that
Speaker 1: is going to relentlessly attack you in the paint. They
Speaker 1: are going to drive the ball to the rim, they
Speaker 1: are going to back you down in the post, they
Speaker 1: are going to draw fouls, they are going to attack
Speaker 1: the offense of glass and so that's a battle I
Speaker 1: expect the Lakers to win convincingly over the course of
Speaker 1: the series because every step they take to try to
Speaker 1: mitigate the lakers physical advantages makes them easier to guard.
Speaker 1: And just ask the Timberwolves who literally the Timberwolves in
Speaker 1: the last eleven minutes of that game made two field goals,
Speaker 1: an uncondes an uncontested Anthony Edwards run out dunk, and
Speaker 1: an Anthony Edwards little four foot shot in the lane
Speaker 1: with less than twenty seconds left in ot when the
Speaker 1: game was over. Those were the only buckets they got
Speaker 1: in eleven minutes of game time. When this Laker unit
Speaker 1: locks in defensively, they capitalize on your lack of offensive skill.
Speaker 1: Taylor Jenkins is going to have to go with his
Speaker 1: most skilled offensive players. If it's not Tis Jones, maybe
Speaker 1: it's Luke Canard, I'm not sure. But whatever they do there,
Speaker 1: they're going to open themselves up to be exploited physically.
Speaker 1: All right, two other matchups I want to talk about.
Speaker 1: What will the Lakers be able to do to counter
Speaker 1: the double teams of Anthony Davis. This has become one
Speaker 1: of the biggest stories for the Lakers lately, and I
Speaker 1: actually said in the play in preview that this is
Speaker 1: my biggest thing that I'll be watching with the Lakers
Speaker 1: in this postseason run. When Ad starts to get double team,
Speaker 1: the team just goes away from him. It's a big
Speaker 1: part of why his scoring has been down. And so
Speaker 1: I have three things that I think the Lakers can
Speaker 1: do to help Anthony Davis and his struggle with double teams.
Speaker 1: First of all, have Anthony Davis attack quickly. When you
Speaker 1: attack quickly, it's before the double team gets there, and
Speaker 1: there's usually like the double team is gonna come and
Speaker 1: try to close gaps on you right but it's a process.
Speaker 1: If you catch and go right away, you might be
Speaker 1: able to get through there before the gap closes. It's
Speaker 1: a reckless move. There's gonna be more turnovers, there's gonna
Speaker 1: be more offensive fouls. But by barreling into the lane,
Speaker 1: he's also going to draw fouls to get to the
Speaker 1: free throw line, and he's going to collapse the defense
Speaker 1: and create easier kickout opportunities. When he gets passive and
Speaker 1: pulls back from the double team, they pressure him, and
Speaker 1: then he doesn't make the kill pass and he makes
Speaker 1: that easy kickout pass of the perimeter, which gets them
Speaker 1: into a more of a traditional closet attacking situation rather
Speaker 1: than the pass that beats the double team. So going
Speaker 1: quickly is the first thing that I would do to
Speaker 1: try to confront that problem. Number two will do something
Speaker 1: off the basketball to make Anthony Davis's reads easier. A
Speaker 1: lot of m NBA teams refer to these as help beaters,
Speaker 1: but it's some kind of action or movement to help
Speaker 1: your double teams player have an easier outlet. So, for instance,
Speaker 1: backscreening out of the dunker spot. So what a lot
Speaker 1: of teams will do is they'll ignore the weak side
Speaker 1: corner and the guy in the dunker spot will the
Speaker 1: guy who's guarding him will be the guy who doubles
Speaker 1: and he'll go hard at Anthony Davis. So then the
Speaker 1: guy guarding the weakside corner will come into the lane
Speaker 1: to guard the guy in the dunker spot. So by
Speaker 1: being the guy in the dunker spot and screening that guy,
Speaker 1: you make it so that he can't close out to
Speaker 1: that skip pass in the corner. So that's a help beater.
Speaker 1: So having Jared Vanderbilt backscreen that man so that he
Speaker 1: can't close out to Austin Reeves. Then you tell Anthony Davis, hey,
Speaker 1: that skip passes there. Even if it's looping, he won't
Speaker 1: be able to close out to it. Right. Another thing
Speaker 1: is flashing to the middle. Ruy Hatchamurg is really good
Speaker 1: at this, for instance, and the guys are really good
Speaker 1: at doing it with Lebron because Lebron hits him every
Speaker 1: single time. But flashing to the middle of the floor
Speaker 1: is another place where you'll find an opening. And then lastly,
Speaker 1: relocating as a shooter. So when you see Anthony Davis
Speaker 1: looking around trying to find something in the double team,
Speaker 1: the other three guys defensively are playing three on four,
Speaker 1: so they're not really guarding a man so much as
Speaker 1: they're in a zone ready to close out to guys. Right,
Speaker 1: So relocating goes a long way towards creating a better
Speaker 1: window for him to throw a pass. Two. But last,
Speaker 1: but not least, just keep going to him. Just because
Speaker 1: he's getting double teamed and you're not getting the easiest
Speaker 1: kickout pass in the world doesn't mean it's not a
Speaker 1: positive possession. There was a play I'm trying to remember
Speaker 1: exactly what happened, but there was a play in the
Speaker 1: first half of this game where Anthony Davis got doubled
Speaker 1: on the left block in the Timberwolves game and he
Speaker 1: didn't make the kill pass. He made a kickout pass
Speaker 1: right to the wing, but they ended up swinging it
Speaker 1: around and still got a bucket out of it. Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis double teams this year are still resulting in one
Speaker 1: point one eight points per possession. That's solid considering how
Speaker 1: bad it looks. Sometimes AD is not good at it.
Speaker 1: But the reality is is this is a skilled roster
Speaker 1: and if you buy them opportunities to attack close out,
Speaker 1: so they'll further the advantage and they'll make a play.
Speaker 1: So even if he does struggle a little bit with
Speaker 1: the double team, keep going to him. It's worth almost
Speaker 1: one point two points. Don't just go away from it
Speaker 1: just because it doesn't feel fluid and natural to you.
Speaker 1: Last matchup, I have my eye on who can execute
Speaker 1: better at the end of close games. Again, decision making
Speaker 1: is gonna play a huge role in this series. It
Speaker 1: always does. But these are two outstanding defensive teams and
Speaker 1: so these are gonna be rock fights and Both of
Speaker 1: these teams have winning records in clutch situations this year,
Speaker 1: but it's really gonna come down to Lebron James versus
Speaker 1: Jamrand and who can make better decisions down the stretch
Speaker 1: of these games. Lebron has been a little bit up
Speaker 1: and down in the clutch the last couple of years.
Speaker 1: It's a product of a bunch of different things, but
Speaker 1: mostly injury. Lebron is is a rhythm player. When he's
Speaker 1: like locked in and in rhythm and he's got all
Speaker 1: of his little pull up jump shots going, and his
Speaker 1: legs are strong and he's in shape, like he can
Speaker 1: be a master closing games, and saw that in the
Speaker 1: twenty twenty bubble, for instance, and every year before that.
Speaker 1: But when he's out of rhythm and he doesn't trust
Speaker 1: his shot and he doesn't have his legs underneath him,
Speaker 1: he can be a little clunky, and he'll make decisions
Speaker 1: similar to the way he would if he was in
Speaker 1: great rhythm, so taking difficult shots or dribbling the air
Speaker 1: out of the basketball, or trying to drive to the
Speaker 1: basket when he doesn't have an advantage like Lebron will
Speaker 1: make some mistakes like that, and then John Moran is
Speaker 1: just a textbook young player, right, So who's gonna win
Speaker 1: that matchup? My guess, says Lebron, But John Morant winning
Speaker 1: that matchup at the end of games could go a
Speaker 1: long way towards giving Memphis a chance to win the series.
Speaker 1: I'm picking the Lakers and win this series in six games.
Speaker 1: They've been the better team in almost every facet of
Speaker 1: the game post headline. They have the two best players
Speaker 1: in the series. If your ranking players in the series
Speaker 1: or going Anthony Davis, Lebron James John Moran. We talked
Speaker 1: about this a little bit yesterday when we were covering
Speaker 1: the Warriors, but I'm a big believer in the best
Speaker 1: player in the series having a swing factor in basketball
Speaker 1: games in playoff series, particularly because games are ugly, they're
Speaker 1: rock fights, and having superstar talent that can squeeze advantages
Speaker 1: out on both ends of the floor usually are the
Speaker 1: difference in these games. They also have a massive size
Speaker 1: advantage with the loss of Clark and Adams, like we
Speaker 1: talked about earlier, and there are several metrics that bode
Speaker 1: well for LA. I'll read through these again. I went
Speaker 1: through most of these in the show, but I'll read
Speaker 1: through them again, the Lakers are the third best fourth
Speaker 1: quarter team in the NBA by net rating and the
Speaker 1: Grizzlies are the fifth worst. So as a team, the
Speaker 1: Lakers execute better. The Lakers have the sixth best clutch
Speaker 1: defense in the NBA post deadline, the Grizzlies are fifteenth,
Speaker 1: the Grizzlies are twenty fifth, and rebounding post headline, the
Speaker 1: Lakers are fourth and the Grizzlies are twenty seventh, and
Speaker 1: spot up efficiency the Lakers are sixteenth. I think it's
Speaker 1: a good matchup for the Lakers and a good opportunity
Speaker 1: for them to tighten up a bunch of things if
Speaker 1: they're serious about making the title run. I still think
Speaker 1: the Lakers can to win a title. We're going to
Speaker 1: do our picks tomorrow, but I'm leaning towards not picking
Speaker 1: them because I think they just have too many ways
Speaker 1: that this can go wrong, and I don't think they're
Speaker 1: the appropriate amount of locked in. We'll circle back to
Speaker 1: that after this Grizzlies series. If they win convincingly and
Speaker 1: they tighten up a bunch of things and Lebron looks great, hey,
Speaker 1: I could be back on board. But right now I
Speaker 1: think there are some safer bets. But this Grizzly series
Speaker 1: is a good first round matchup for the Lakers, a
Speaker 1: series they can win, and a good opportunity for them
Speaker 1: to get back to playing a championship brand of basketball,
Speaker 1: just like we did with the other series. How can
Speaker 1: the Grizzlies win? John Morante needs to be the best
Speaker 1: player in the series. If Lebron James and Anthony Davis
Speaker 1: are as good as they are, the only way you're
Speaker 1: overcoming that is if it's Jaws the best, and then
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis and Lebron. John needs to outplay those guys.
Speaker 1: I think a big factor here would be the whistle.
Speaker 1: And I'm not talking about it from the standpoint of cheating.
Speaker 1: We just talked about this earlier. But John Moran's extremely
Speaker 1: difficult to keep in front, and we've seen an NBA history.
Speaker 1: My favorite example is Dwayne Wade in two thousand and six.
Speaker 1: But really quick guards that beat everybody off the dribble.
Speaker 1: Sometimes they enter into a phase of just absurd advantage
Speaker 1: creation where the rest just don't know what to do
Speaker 1: with them. And if he just starts beating everybody off
Speaker 1: the dribble getting to the foul line NonStop, that could
Speaker 1: go a long way towards him being the best player
Speaker 1: in the series. Desmond, excuse me, Dylan Brooks and Jaren Jackson,
Speaker 1: they need to be able to stay out of foul
Speaker 1: trouble again. Jaren Jackson is throughout his career struggle with
Speaker 1: foul trouble. Brooks has struggled a little bit as well,
Speaker 1: and they just don't have the depth to be able
Speaker 1: to handle those guys not being on the floor. So
Speaker 1: they need to be able to defend without fouling. And
Speaker 1: they need to be able to shoot the ball well
Speaker 1: from three because the Lakers are going to dare them
Speaker 1: to do so. Desmond Baine has to provide legitimate secondary
Speaker 1: shock creation. We found out last year that he doesn't
Speaker 1: really create off the bounce very well in this playoff setting,
Speaker 1: albeit he was dealing with some back issues. They need
Speaker 1: really good secondary shot creation from him in this series.
Speaker 1: As a unit. Desmond Baine, Luke Nard Ties Jones, and
Speaker 1: Dylan Brooks have to compete on the glass because I
Speaker 1: do think that Taylor Jenkins is going to go small
Speaker 1: and that's the only way they can hang with the
Speaker 1: Lakers physically is if those guys really compete on that end.
Speaker 1: If all those things go well, Memphis absolutely can win
Speaker 1: this series. I think a big bell weather for them
Speaker 1: is I think they need to go up two oh.
Speaker 1: They need to put real pressure on the Lakers to
Speaker 1: have to win at Crypto dot Com Arena, especially because
Speaker 1: I think Lebron's gonna get stronger as the series progresses
Speaker 1: and he gets in better shape and he starts to
Speaker 1: tie off some things with his skill set. All right, guys,
Speaker 1: that is all I have for today. As always, I
Speaker 1: sincerely appreciate you support. We'll probably have one or two
Speaker 1: more series previews coming out in the next before the
Speaker 1: end of the day. We also have that video with
Speaker 1: Carson coming later this afternoon. As always, I appreciate you guys,
Speaker 1: and I'll see you later today. The volume