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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Jeff to Graph joins us, Now, is that a Martin

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Speaker 2: guitar behind it?

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Speaker 3: Right?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: You know it looks looks like almost like on the

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Speaker 2: edge of a deep deep maybe double. Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 2: it's very clapped it in. Jeff to Graph joins us, Now,

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Speaker 2: in the equity market, what are you learning from Neil Dada?

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Speaker 2: How do how do you take Dutta economics the great

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Speaker 2: optimist now very cautious. How do you fold that into

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Speaker 2: a market belief?

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Speaker 5: Jeff to Graph, Well, it's a great question, Tom. You know,

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Speaker 5: I think it's important that we distinguished and David hit

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Speaker 5: on this before. Are the difference between economics and an

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Speaker 5: economic call and a market call. And while they're not

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Speaker 5: one hundred percent independent by any means, they're certainly not

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Speaker 5: brother or sister. We'd say they're probably second cousins.

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Speaker 3: And so, you know, a.

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Speaker 5: Lot of the data that we see a lot of

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Speaker 5: the trajectory that we see in that data is reflected

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Speaker 5: in the market, and then the question becomes, Okay, well,

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Speaker 5: at what point does that become fully priced? And is

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Speaker 5: the market's starting to look ahead from those things? So

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Speaker 5: right now I would say that that's you know, Neil

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Speaker 5: and I are more on the same page than not

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Speaker 5: in terms of the market's message, the economic message. I

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Speaker 5: do think that there's a tactical call here that we

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Speaker 5: have to be cognizant of.

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Speaker 3: But you know, overall, from a trend perspective, those those

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Speaker 3: two things are aligned.

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Speaker 6: Me.

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Speaker 2: My head's spinning. I had Margaret Franklin to the CFA

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Speaker 2: Institute on and then I got the IMF headlines and

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Speaker 2: I got Tom morelk a Bloomberg saying it's a paradigmatic

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Speaker 2: shift in our equity market thinking, Jeff, is it thinking

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Speaker 2: as usual or is it a paradigmatic shift? And how

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Speaker 2: we have approach stocks?

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Speaker 5: Well, that's a great question. So what you're really asking

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Speaker 5: is this is this time different? And I think what

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Speaker 5: we can conclude is that from a sentiment standpoint, all

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Speaker 5: those things that the IMF is talking about.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the.

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Speaker 5: Question that David asked was a great question, and I

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Speaker 5: would just simplify that and say, does the IMF make

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Speaker 5: you money? Because that's really what I'm trying to do here,

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Speaker 5: right from a look, I'm a speculator, There's no doubt

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Speaker 5: about that. So I'm not trying to call GDP. I'm

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Speaker 5: trying to look at where the S and P is

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Speaker 5: likely to be in the next one, three, six months.

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Speaker 5: And so when I look at sentiment, this is really

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Speaker 5: a reflection what the IMF is doing. It's really a

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Speaker 5: reflection of the policy uncertainty which is spiked, a reflection

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Speaker 5: of some of the correlations that we're seeing which are spiking,

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Speaker 5: a reflection of just the general sentiment environment that's out there.

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Speaker 5: So I would put those forecasts in that bucket. And

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Speaker 5: I think the important part of that is what do

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Speaker 5: those forecasts do well? They get people thinking differently, and

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Speaker 5: that includes policy makers. That gets them thinking about, hey,

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Speaker 5: how can we avert this, how can we soften this blow?

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Speaker 5: What can we do to minimize this? And so that's

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Speaker 5: where I think you want to be thinking a little

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Speaker 5: bit differently. Here is what the reaction function is. When

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Speaker 5: everybody starts to pile up on one side of the boat,

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Speaker 5: they're still fishing on the other side, and that's what

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Speaker 5: we're looking for.

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Speaker 7: Jeff, how do you look at this kind of moment

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Speaker 7: to moment market, And that's what it seems to have

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Speaker 7: been here over these last few weeks. And we talked

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Speaker 7: at the top of the show just about this perhaps

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Speaker 7: distracting conversation about the position the Fed chair is in

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Speaker 7: right now and what the president's saying, but we know

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Speaker 7: that that is making its way into how the market

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Speaker 7: is moving. How do you kind of focus in a

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Speaker 7: more laser like way on the technicals amidst all of that. So, yes,

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Speaker 7: it's a distraction, but how do you see through the

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Speaker 7: fog of that and sort of chart a path forward?

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Speaker 5: A great question, and we say this all the time.

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Speaker 5: It's in our disclaimer. This is a probability not a

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Speaker 5: prediction business. And so what we're really trying to do

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Speaker 5: is find where the mismatches are in probability and prediction.

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Speaker 5: And I think one of those that really out to me.

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Speaker 5: You know, you can look at the poly market as

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Speaker 5: an example of you know, quote unquote, will Trump removed

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Speaker 5: your own Powell in twenty twenty five, there's right now

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Speaker 5: about a twenty one percent chance of that given the

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Speaker 5: poly market. Now obviously you've got players here. This isn't

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Speaker 5: a perfectly well distributed probability distribution. But if you think

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Speaker 5: about that twenty one percent, the way I want you

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Speaker 5: to think about it is that's about the equivalent of

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Speaker 5: you having a sixteen at a blackjack table and the

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Speaker 5: dealer having a ten.

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Speaker 3: That's not a great place to be.

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Speaker 5: In other words, I'd much rather it be in the

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Speaker 5: dealer's hand, which says I'd much rather be in Powell's

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Speaker 5: position that I'm not going to get fired and I'm still.

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Speaker 3: Going to be there. And that's the way that we

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Speaker 3: think about that.

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Speaker 2: A lot of America. Jeff toographed with this folks, a

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Speaker 2: renaissances should say renaissance Macro here with futures up fifty five.

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Speaker 2: We welcome all of you on your commute across the nation.

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Speaker 2: Got some good equity chat coming up here. Is Brian

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Speaker 2: Belski size Brian Belski still scheduled with us as well.

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Speaker 2: Brian Belski's he's leaving the beach in Florida down there early.

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Speaker 2: We're you know, to gra We're not you know, we're

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Speaker 2: not on a beach like Belski Jeff, that's all great

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Speaker 2: and well, but a huge body of our listeners don't

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Speaker 2: want to speculate. They got a retirement account. How should

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Speaker 2: someone in conservative money, cautious money, actual assumption money, how

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Speaker 2: should that person move in this paradigmatic shift.

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Speaker 5: Well, look, I think we run allocation models. We've run

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Speaker 5: one for about five years now, and we look at

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Speaker 5: it on a dynamic basis. It's kind of an optimization problem.

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Speaker 5: But I think the best way to explain that from

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Speaker 5: you know, kind of a general standpoint is in being

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Speaker 5: in an athletic stance, right you want to be able

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Speaker 5: to move forward, sideways, backwards, whatever the case may be.

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Speaker 5: And right now our allocations are about thirty five percent stocks,

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Speaker 5: twenty five percent treasuries, and about thirty percent cash, with

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Speaker 5: the remainder in some commodities. And that's really a reflection

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Speaker 5: of the trends that we see, the deterioration in the

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Speaker 5: data that we're seeing, and what we think is likely

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Speaker 5: to happen going forward. And part of that, given the uncertainty,

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Speaker 5: is that large commitment to cash. Now, we try to

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Speaker 5: solve for sharp races. We try to solve for risk

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Speaker 5: adjusted returns, not just absolute returns. And so that's one

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Speaker 5: of the reasons why this is a little bit more

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Speaker 5: balanced of an approach. But we certainly have seen our

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Speaker 5: allocations to equities come down here, really been cut in

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Speaker 5: half in about the last i'd say three months, at least,

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Speaker 5: probably two and a half to three months.

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Speaker 2: David, I didn't realize this on a weekly chart apples

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Speaker 2: down thirty three that was a maximum drawing. I had

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Speaker 2: no idea was that much agony out there?

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Speaker 3: Jeff?

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Speaker 7: Where are you on the topic of American exceptionalism? A

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Speaker 7: lot of folks pouring one out for American exceptionalism. Given

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Speaker 7: all of this, how are you looking at it? How

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Speaker 7: much longevity does it have?

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Speaker 5: As you see in look, I think it comes down

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Speaker 5: to where is capital treated best? And right now you

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Speaker 5: know clearly there's some question as to how capital is

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Speaker 5: going to be treated here in the US. But I

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Speaker 5: think when we take a step back, take a deep breath,

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Speaker 5: kind of get through the summer, see what's going on.

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Speaker 5: Hopefully this is I don't want to say resolve. At

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Speaker 5: least there's a little bit more clarity in this fog

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Speaker 5: of war here. I think people are going to look

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Speaker 5: back and say, look, where where do we have the

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Speaker 5: highest return on invested capital. Where can we really OutKick

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Speaker 5: our coverage, if you will, given the risk And I

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Speaker 5: think that that's going to take a long time to

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Speaker 5: shift that away from the US. And so I think

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Speaker 5: there's a sentiment environment here that's certainly percolating.

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Speaker 3: It's having an impact.

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Speaker 5: I mean, you really are getting into situations with rise

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Speaker 5: and treasuries, with the FED likely to cut rates at

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Speaker 5: the next meeting, and the decline inequities and the decline

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Speaker 5: and dollar. I mean, that's taking you back into the

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Speaker 5: Smithsonian stuff of nineteen seventy one. So you know, it's

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Speaker 5: a pretty unusual environment. But I do think that when

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Speaker 5: the dust settles, people are going to look around and say, hey,

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Speaker 5: where's my money going to return the best for its

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Speaker 5: risk profile?

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Speaker 3: And I think that's still going to be the US.

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Speaker 2: Are we in a bear market?

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Speaker 3: We are?

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Speaker 7: You're trying to take tea up bellski here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I am. I just you know, I thought i'd

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Speaker 2: get a longer answer from Jeff. I just went down

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Speaker 2: on flames there discuss.

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Speaker 3: I could elaborate. Are we in a circuit?

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Speaker 5: A bear market is not about being down twenty percent?

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Speaker 5: It's not some magical number. It really is about the

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Speaker 5: combination of the increase in volatility, the decrease in returns,

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Speaker 5: and what that's happening on a trend basis, and those

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Speaker 5: are all sloping downwards now. So in our book, that

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Speaker 5: is the definition of a bear market, and that really

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Speaker 5: kicked in about a month ago. So it's not this

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Speaker 5: is not a new phenomenon. This has been something that's

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Speaker 5: in play, and I do think that that's important as

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Speaker 5: we think about it from a longer term perspective, The

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Speaker 5: question is is has sentiment outdone itself in the very

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Speaker 5: near term to get a really nice rally, And that's

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Speaker 5: where we are. We think we can rally back to

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Speaker 5: at least fifty five hundred, probably close to fifty seven hundred,

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Speaker 5: and then the question will be how did we get there.

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Speaker 5: Did we get there with momentum? Did we get there

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Speaker 5: with a change in the attitude? If we didn't, then

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Speaker 5: that's a rally to sell.

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Speaker 7: Always good to ask the follow up, Tom, that was great,

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Speaker 7: Always good to ask the follow up question.

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Speaker 8: I.

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Speaker 2: See de Graf. What you don't understand is when girls

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Speaker 2: in the press conference of the White House, he's like

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Speaker 2: looking for the third follow up question. Those days are gone.

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Speaker 7: You know, you might have missed this, Jeff. But but

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Speaker 7: Tom noted that during the hockey game last night gold

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Speaker 7: hit thirty five hundred he got a push alert or

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Speaker 7: something like that. When you're watching, What do we take

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Speaker 7: away from that, Jeff gold hitting that. Let we've seen

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Speaker 7: this amazing trajectory that gold has had over the last

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Speaker 7: few months or thirty percent this year, what do you

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Speaker 7: make of that? I guess that's my dumb question.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna ask him, Well, I don't think it's dumb

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Speaker 3: at all.

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Speaker 5: I think, you know, I think that's a reasonable response

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Speaker 5: to sanctions that have been in place for a long time,

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Speaker 5: kind of the weaponization of the dollar the US financial system.

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Speaker 5: I mean, look, if we were on the other side

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Speaker 5: of this trade, if we weren't, you know, US citizens

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Speaker 5: or the US government, I'd be thinking about the same

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Speaker 5: thing too, Right, How can I make sure that I'm

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Speaker 5: not just totally dependent on US dollars and treasury? So

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Speaker 5: that does make some sense to me, no doubt about it.

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Speaker 5: That trend has been in place for a while though,

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Speaker 5: I mean, our trend models have been bullish on gold

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Speaker 5: for at least eighteen months.

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Speaker 3: It's probably longer than that.

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Speaker 5: I think what's interesting about gold right here is when

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Speaker 5: we start looking at some of our rolling alpha models

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Speaker 5: and some of the things that we look at historically,

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Speaker 5: we are getting into rarefied air, so we don't yet

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Speaker 5: quite have it from a sentiment standpoint on the ETF inflows.

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Speaker 5: But the one thing that we will watch when it

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Speaker 5: comes to extremes in trend, which we're getting very close to,

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Speaker 5: if not there for gold, is the sentiment environment so

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Speaker 5: robust that it says to us there's a buyer's frenzy

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Speaker 5: and we want to take a step aside. I suspect

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Speaker 5: that that's we're within days of weeks of that, so

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Speaker 5: I actually think that that's a pretty good spot to

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Speaker 5: start to let some of this go again within the

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Speaker 5: context of an uptrend. So it's more of a tactical call,

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Speaker 5: but I think it is getting kind of into that

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Speaker 5: frenzy zone.

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Speaker 2: Two shortened answers. I'm sorry, Jeff to grab Is MAG

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Speaker 2: seven broken? Is Meg seven broken?

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Speaker 3: I think you have to strip it out.

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Speaker 5: But for the most part, the trends for MAG seven

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Speaker 5: are bearish, and we haven't seen anything from a momentum standpoint,

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Speaker 5: and really not even from a sentiment standpoint, Yet for

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Speaker 5: those individual names to say that the trend has exhausted itself,

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Speaker 5: I would say for semiconductors for the first time, this

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Speaker 5: was about three weeks ago, maybe two weeks ago. Now

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Speaker 5: our seller's frenzy started to fire in semiconductors. Obviously the

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Speaker 5: weakness in Nvidia helped that. That's a stark contrast to

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Speaker 5: where we were nine months ago, which was a buyer's frenzy.

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Speaker 5: We were warning clients at the trend exactly like gold.

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Speaker 5: The trend was too frothy. And I think one of

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Speaker 5: the important parts of this from an overall sentiment standpoint

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Speaker 5: is that you've got this now repudiation of the sky

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Speaker 5: blue narrative.

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Speaker 3: That was AI.

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Speaker 5: So people are now going from protecting themselves in semis

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Speaker 5: to actually trying to profit on the downside. That's a

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Speaker 5: really important psychological change, and that tends to be a

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Speaker 5: bull of psychological change.

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Speaker 2: Jef to Grath, thank you so much, run Us on

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Speaker 2: some macro research. He's a really really great griefing there.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just

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Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now. Someone who's enjoyed that humility. Brian Belski,

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Speaker 2: Chief Investment Strategies at Beamo Capital Markets. Brian, how are

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Speaker 2: you framing out your inherent optimism on equities given this

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Speaker 2: time we are living?

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Speaker 8: You know, thanks for having us. It's tough to be

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Speaker 8: bullish now, but always we always say, you know, pride

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Speaker 8: brings disgrace and humility generates wisdom. And you just brought

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Speaker 8: some humility my way. Because the very first stock that

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Speaker 8: I analyzed at William o'nial in company for William O'Neil

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Speaker 8: was three a m. He'd literally walk me over to

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Speaker 8: the to the file and cabinet made me pull out

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Speaker 8: the file and read it. So it is Minnesota Mining

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Speaker 8: and Manufacturing. This is listen.

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Speaker 2: I isn't that cool? Yeah?

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Speaker 8: So I've been thinking a lot about this, and obviously,

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Speaker 8: and you know, the binary reactions of investors have never

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Speaker 8: been greater number one.

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Speaker 3: Number two.

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Speaker 8: I think this has a lot to do with how

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Speaker 8: we react to bullet points and emotions and things like that,

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Speaker 8: and I'm going to make a parallel, and it's probably

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Speaker 8: not going to be very popular. So I think this

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Speaker 8: is very parallel in terms of how we're reacting to

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Speaker 8: what's going on in the stock market to COVID. Now,

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Speaker 8: clearly COVID was a fright. It was a once in

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Speaker 8: every four generation event in terms of a pandemic. But

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Speaker 8: the emotions in COVID are similar to in the fear

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Speaker 8: of COVID, are similar to our personal feelings with respect

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Speaker 8: to what's happening politically. Then the other thing is many

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Speaker 8: of my compatriots, colleagues, and competitors are not staying in

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Speaker 8: their lane. They've become now amateur psychologists that are diagnosed

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Speaker 8: think personality disorders, where they should actually be focusing more

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Speaker 8: on what's happening in the economy in terms of the earnings.

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Speaker 8: Here's what we here's what we know. We don't know

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Speaker 8: exactly how long this is going to last. We've already positioned,

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Speaker 8: we meaning consensus that this is going to take years

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Speaker 8: and years and years and years to unfold. So I

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Speaker 8: believe that the majority of portfolios strategists, economists are already

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Speaker 8: positioned for the worst case scenario. What we believe in

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Speaker 8: our standing in terms of the investment Strategy group at

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Speaker 8: BEMO is this could all be over in a matter

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Speaker 8: of days. We're not trying to be Pollyanna or flippant.

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Speaker 8: We believe in the inherent strength of the US economy,

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Speaker 8: the US stock market, and we still believe that we

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Speaker 8: have the best assets in the world, and we're going

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Speaker 8: to take negativity to add to those assets.

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Speaker 2: Bronze it, David, get a question in here before the

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Speaker 2: market open. I'm going to come back because folks, this

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Speaker 2: is my third rail right now. That Belski address David

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Speaker 2: Gerr with a question.

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Speaker 7: Probably got about a minute to market opens. But yet,

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Speaker 7: so I know that you've revised your your year end target.

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Speaker 7: Are are you doing that simply because of historical trends

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Speaker 7: where you think things are going or could go? Just

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Speaker 7: in the minute we have here, explain why you decided

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Speaker 7: to make that revision down.

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Speaker 8: Well, again, with much humility, we have to be much

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Speaker 8: more realistic, especially given the draw down that we've had, David,

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Speaker 8: and I think to have a thirty five to forty

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Speaker 8: percent move from here to get to sixty seven hundred

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Speaker 8: and be very difficult. Can we get a twenty to

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Speaker 8: twenty five percent, absolutely, and that is based on historical standards.

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Speaker 2: Who us some vima capital markets Brian Belski, Brian, you

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Speaker 2: know I'm on your side on this. We've had a

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Speaker 2: number of guests this morning. Go back to Cooney in

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Speaker 2: theory of nineteen, I think forty nine or forty seven,

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Speaker 2: and use a dreaded word paradigm. When I see that word,

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Speaker 2: Brian Belski, I circle it with fear. Why is this

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Speaker 2: not a paradigmatic shift in the markets.

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Speaker 8: I don't think it's a pair. I think the market

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Speaker 8: actually is acting like it's a paradynamic shift. And oh,

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Speaker 8: by the way, I have a very good fortune of

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Speaker 8: being in Europe last week, Tommy and talking to those

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Speaker 8: great investors that have had wonderful returns if they've been

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Speaker 8: investing in European stocks. And to be clear, europe investors

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Speaker 8: that have not really liked US stocks wholeheartedly and objectively

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Speaker 8: since the year two thousand. They've been reluctant buyers of

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Speaker 8: US stocks the last ten years, and so they're taking

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Speaker 8: victory laps with respect to what's happening now. But I

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Speaker 8: think we need to think more objectively about this Tom,

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Speaker 8: I think what's happening is more of a reversion to

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Speaker 8: the mean. If I go back to my Mary Lynch days,

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Speaker 8: I think we're reverting to the mean. I think, again,

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Speaker 8: to go back to what I said in the beginning,

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Speaker 8: we're making binary decisions in terms of we're not going

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Speaker 8: to go all this way, in terms of going back

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Speaker 8: to this massive paradigm shift that people are thinking position for.

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Speaker 8: I think this is simply being positioned to a shift

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Speaker 8: to the mean because we went too far the other side, Brian.

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Speaker 7: We had Jeff DeGraf on right before you. So speaking

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Speaker 7: of binary, let me set this up one two. Tom

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Speaker 7: asked him, are we in a bear market? And he

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Speaker 7: didn't waste more than half a second in saying, yes,

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Speaker 7: how about you. What's your read on where we are?

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Speaker 7: Would you use the same the same name.

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Speaker 8: Just from Michigan. So he has the Midwest sensibilities. So

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Speaker 8: I don't know yet. So here's what I would say,

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Speaker 8: and here's what we actually wrote in a published research report.

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Speaker 8: It doesn't matter if we're in a bear market. And

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Speaker 8: again we all like to put labels on. Let's go

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Speaker 8: back to what we said in the report. Doesn't matter

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Speaker 8: if we're down ten percent, fifty percent, or twenty five percent. Again,

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Speaker 8: we don't like it when people lose money. I think

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Speaker 8: it's terrible. The market was a little bit frothy heading

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Speaker 8: into the beginning.

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Speaker 2: Of the year.

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Speaker 8: We know that, however, why doesn't matter because when the

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Speaker 8: market bottoms, and we do think we're in a bottoming process,

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Speaker 8: we don't go straight down or strained up. It's a

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Speaker 8: process typically in historical new when we have these types

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Speaker 8: of exacerbated moves to the downside. Twelve months out, we're

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Speaker 8: not up an average of twenty nine point four percent.

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Speaker 8: So give me a twenty percent rally still gets us

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Speaker 8: to that sixty one hundred target by by hopefully closer

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Speaker 8: to your end. Even if we don't get there, I

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Speaker 8: think we'll get closer death than most people think. So

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Speaker 8: again I think that we'd love to put labels on

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Speaker 8: things by the way too, and I know Jeff would

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Speaker 8: probably agree to this. I've known Jeff for a long time.

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Speaker 8: Is that how many people how many people sold at

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Speaker 8: the peak?

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Speaker 9: Huh?

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Speaker 8: How many people sold the peak? So a lot of

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Speaker 8: this is peak to peak the trough type analysis, And

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Speaker 8: again that's more academic than anything.

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Speaker 2: Brian Belski thank you so much, greatly appreciate. Let's do

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Speaker 2: it again and just appreciate those comments.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch US live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: This is exceptionally well timed Alesia Cassia Herrero out of

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Speaker 2: Hong Kong when the Texas chief economists for the Pacific Room,

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Speaker 2: if you will joins us right now. Alicia, I'm a

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Speaker 2: little upset this morning, and I'm playing off with Greg Ip,

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Speaker 2: who I think was really terse and to the point

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Speaker 2: with the Wall Street Journal. The news that we saw

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Speaker 2: in the last four or five days was Japan had

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Speaker 2: quote unquote negotiations with a White House, except they weren't negotiations.

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Speaker 2: And then two days later, China has come out and

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Speaker 2: said anybody that has negotiations that harm China that will

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Speaker 2: not be accepted. To me, there's a misunderstanding of teriff

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Speaker 2: war dynamics, trade war dynamics in the Pacific rim discuss

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Speaker 2: that how fragile are the negotiations right now?

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Speaker 6: Well, I think the Trump administration probably thought this would

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Speaker 6: be easier. So what was the strategy. I threatened to

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Speaker 6: the point of actually imposing times on everybody, so that

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Speaker 6: they then realized how dangerous these game is, and they

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Speaker 6: did couple from China, but this came quite late. Excuse

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Speaker 6: me in the game why because many of these nations

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Speaker 6: already depends massively on Chinese. Japan is one of the

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Speaker 6: least dependent, and still so for Japan, for South Korea.

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Speaker 6: The US is a larger export market, but the problem

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Speaker 6: is from the import site. So if you are Vietnam,

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Speaker 6: which is an extreme case, you just can't export without China.

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Speaker 6: You just can't do what the US is asking you

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Speaker 6: to do. You can't impose targets on Chinese inputs, on

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Speaker 6: Chinese intermediate goods without which you cannot export to the US. So,

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Speaker 6: in a way, the US is requesting something that is

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Speaker 6: not feasible for a lot of Asian countries, I would

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Speaker 6: say Southeast Asia. That's why it is not going to

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Speaker 6: work in the way the Trump administration expects it to work.

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Speaker 2: David, you know, I'm curious.

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Speaker 7: We've seen the Chinese currency week, and we've seen the

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Speaker 7: Beijing government allow that to happen over these last many weeks.

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Speaker 7: How do you see that playing out going forward? As

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Speaker 7: kind of look at the way in which China is

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Speaker 7: I won't say weathering, but but navigating the stale might

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Speaker 7: here with the US government.

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00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 6: Okay, so China has a few tools to I wouldnt

439
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 6: say withstand but mitigate the shock. The shock is huge,

440
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 6: Let's face it. This won't be said in China, but

441
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 6: it is a huge shock. It is even more so

442
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:28,080
Speaker 6: if the US ultimately imposed the styles on countries through

443
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 6: which Chinese going to the US, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia. One

444
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 6: way to go about this is what China has already done. Actually,

445
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 6: China's response post COVID, response to its own weaknesses in

446
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 6: twenty twenty to twenty twenty three all the way to

447
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 6: September twenty twenty four was to weaken the currents to

448
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,719
Speaker 6: allow the weakening. They didn't need to weaken themselves because

449
00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 6: the market was already on a weekening cycle because the

450
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,879
Speaker 6: economy was really not doing well, so capitol was leaving China,

451
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:07,159
Speaker 6: and also US rates were very high, and therefore the

452
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:11,880
Speaker 6: interre differential was attracting capital. So they are now doing

453
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 6: the same thing. But very carefully because they know the

454
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,880
Speaker 6: US is watching, which wasn't the case before. I think

455
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 6: they could do much more if needed, and that will

456
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 6: create a competitive evaluation in Asia.

457
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 2: Alicia, thank you so much for joining us. She's within

458
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 2: Texas and the Pacific Room. Chief Economs for Airpech Alicia

459
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 2: Percy her Railroad.

460
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

461
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android

462
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 1: Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

463
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

464
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty Joining us.

465
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 2: Now from Australia in the Peterson Institute or mckivin. Are

466
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 2: they gonna work, doctor mckivin, I mean, just simple? The

467
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 2: President makes it sounds it's all easy, so simple. Are

468
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 2: we actually going to bring in revenue from tariffs?

469
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 4: Great to be here? I guess the question is will

470
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 4: they work? Depends on what the objective is. If the

471
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 4: objective is to slow down economic growth, yes they'll achieve that.

472
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 4: If the objective is to bring in revenue, yes they

473
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 4: will bring in some revenue. But by our estimates and

474
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,880
Speaker 4: other estimates. The revenue is nowhere near as great as

475
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,919
Speaker 4: advocates of tariffs might suggests. Very narrow tax base, so

476
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:28,880
Speaker 4: you have to have a very high tax to get

477
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 4: any revenue.

478
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,719
Speaker 2: Do you indicate or see that there's anyone within the

479
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 2: Trump orbit that can explain what you just said to

480
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 2: the president. Is there anyone that can explain this to

481
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:42,679
Speaker 2: Donald Trump?

482
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 4: Well, I haven't seen any explanation that makes sense. I

483
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 4: think the calculation that might have been done is how

484
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 4: many imports are there in the US at the moment,

485
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 4: three trillion, muliplied by a tariff of ten percent. How

486
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 4: much revenue do you get? What you get three hundred

487
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 4: billion a year for ten years, three trillions. So that's

488
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 4: a simple calculation. What it ignores is that people will

489
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 4: stop buying imports because they've become more expensive. People will

490
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 4: shift their consumption bundles, Inflation will go up, the economy

491
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 4: will slow, and you'll lose revenue from your corporate taxes

492
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 4: and from your household income taxes. So when you nettle

493
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 4: that out, you get a lot more offset than you expect.

494
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 4: And I haven't seen the calculations of offset being produced

495
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 4: by anyone in the administration.

496
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 7: I was having some fun a moment ago talking about

497
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 7: stochastic models, and you're famous for one with Jeff Sachs.

498
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,479
Speaker 7: Tom mentioned them just a moment ago. Can you just

499
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 7: talk in plain terms about how you conducted your analysis

500
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 7: and sort of what variables are there in sort of

501
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 7: coming to some conclusion about the effect this is going

502
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 7: to have.

503
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, What we've tried to and that's a good question.

504
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 4: What we've tried to do is bring both the financial

505
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 4: parts of the world economy, to links between countries through

506
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 4: asset markets, exchange rate bond markets, together with production networks.

507
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 4: So we're modeling the real economy, how resources flow within

508
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 4: the US economy and between the US and China and

509
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 4: other and so we try and map the physical economy

510
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 4: and the financial economy and their interaction into a very

511
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 4: very large, complex system which is based partly on historical

512
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 4: relationships and partly on observed events such as German unification,

513
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 4: such as NAFTA, such as events where we saw something

514
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 4: occur and we see whether our modeling framework can replicate

515
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 4: what have happened within a reasonable degree of confidence, and

516
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 4: then we use that framework to project scenarios for central banks,

517
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:35,880
Speaker 4: for corporations for governments, simple questions as well as complex

518
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 4: questions like the Taroff war.

519
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 7: We were talking about the IMFs revised forecast this morning

520
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 7: and something we heard from our chief economists from Tom

521
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,640
Speaker 7: as well is this being a kind of paradigm shift.

522
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 7: And I wonder sort of how you are thinking about

523
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 7: what this portends, what's changing about the global economy visa

524
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 7: VI what the Trump administration has announced in terms of

525
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 7: trade policy.

526
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:59,160
Speaker 4: Well, seeing this transformation going on for decades, we've seen

527
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 4: the center of global economic activity moving from Europe and

528
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 4: the US to Asia, and so what's been announced as

529
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 4: a vast acceleration but still moving in that direction where

530
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:10,919
Speaker 4: the balance of economic power is shifting away from the

531
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 4: advanced economies as we know them today. So this is

532
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 4: actually a very large economic adjustment. It accelerates something that's

533
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 4: already happening. I guess one of the interesting things is

534
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 4: the geopolitical adjustment hasn't caught up with the economic adjustment

535
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 4: we've been seeing, and so the US is very overweighted

536
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,400
Speaker 4: in the international institutions like the IMF and World Bank

537
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 4: and UN. I think that doesn't really bother the Trump

538
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,439
Speaker 4: administration at all. In fact, they're trying to move that

539
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 4: away from the current arrangements as well. But this is

540
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 4: a very major event in world history.

541
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 2: I would say doctor mckifvin, thank you so much. Mckivin

542
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 2: there at the Peterson Institute in Washington, writing with Adam Posen,

543
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 2: Chad Bone and others. Just can't say enough about their

544
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 2: output in the recent weeks.

545
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

546
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

547
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

548
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

549
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

550
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 2: In the year, there are few people I want to

551
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 2: talk to more than Margaret Franklin. Her institution changed my life.

552
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 2: Joining us not from Charlotte'sville, Virginia, but I believe in

553
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 2: Washington day, driving steadfastly the charn of Financial Analysts Institute,

554
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 2: the CFA Institute. Margaret Franklin joins us right now. Margaret,

555
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 2: the institution of one hundred and seventy thousand people, the

556
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 2: rite of passage that it is. Are you beyond COVID?

557
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 10: Well, Tom, I am thrilled to say we are beyond

558
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 10: COVID and in fact, we're two hundred thousand members and

559
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:58,439
Speaker 10: COVID gave us the opportunity to really evaluate and I

560
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 10: would say improve the CFA program so that candidates and

561
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 10: charterholders are as ready as ever for what lies ahead.

562
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 10: And it's of course interesting times for investors.

563
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,439
Speaker 2: It was hugely difficult, like at one point India was

564
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,440
Speaker 2: shut down. I can't remember the details, but literally for

565
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 2: the level one, level two, level three exams, nations couldn't

566
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 2: take the test. Is it smooth going now? And particularly

567
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 2: the test taking on the Pacific rim It is.

568
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 10: Smooth going And you're right. It was completely disjointed and

569
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 10: inordinately disruptive for candidates we went. When COVID hit, we

570
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 10: were doing paper based tests and we're now, of course

571
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 10: completely computer based and so it is seamless, and we

572
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 10: have more reach than we ever have before, so in

573
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 10: more markets and making it more accessible for candidates to

574
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 10: take their exams close to home.

575
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,239
Speaker 2: Margaret David wants to get in here, but I have

576
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 2: to ask, are you kidding me? A computer based CFA exam?

577
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 2: There's something about the pain in your hand?

578
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 3: You can still ring out, Tom. I'm sure it would

579
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 3: allow you.

580
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 2: I have on my desk my Hewlett Packard twelve C

581
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 2: with my Margaret Franklin YELLOWCFA dot.

582
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 3: What has been the what is it?

583
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 2: Ben? Margaret like going from handwritten agony over to computer exams.

584
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 9: The people like it, Yeah, they do, and of course

585
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 9: you won't be surprised though, Tom, they still feel the

586
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 9: same amount of agony because the quality, the rigor, and

587
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 9: of course the content are the tough part.

588
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 10: So I think it's just a tough new new medium,

589
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 10: new medium.

590
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 2: David, Ethics is not the same computer taking market.

591
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 7: I see you have these specialized pathways now private wealth,

592
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 7: private markets, and the traditional portfolio management path. I'm still

593
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 7: waiting for the pedantic amateur radio host path, which I'll

594
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 7: continue to wait for here. But explain how that works

595
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 7: and sort of what that leads to. Is it all

596
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 7: leading to the same thing, all to the same designation, Yeah,

597
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 7: so it does.

598
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:58,959
Speaker 10: It's all CFA. It's Margaret Franklin, Tom g comm a CFA.

599
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 10: But we were able to when we did that audit

600
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 10: and we used the COVID period to assess the program,

601
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 10: we were able to keep the entire core of the

602
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 10: program and then offer pathways in level three for half

603
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 10: of it to really align better with candidates desires in

604
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 10: really the core areas that are of interests, private markets,

605
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 10: private wealth, and then of course traditional portfolio management. And

606
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 10: you know, that coincided with a number of changes we

607
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:32,480
Speaker 10: made to the program, including allowing college students to begin

608
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 10: twenty three months away from graduation so they could be

609
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 10: really prepared for the market. And in addition, we added

610
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 10: practical skills modules. We did an assessment with employers and

611
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 10: they were very keen to share that they valued the

612
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 10: rigor the quality and the knowledge, but they wanted candidates

613
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 10: to be much more job ready, and so we added

614
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 10: our practical skills modules and I think that that has

615
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 10: been very well received as well as you know, the

616
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 10: learn the way we know that learners learn is changing.

617
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 10: So we've set candidates up for success with a great

618
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 10: learning ecosystem and great ways for them to learn.

619
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 2: The curricula is better. It's much more formalized now, folks.

620
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 2: It used to be a three foot pile of books

621
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 2: that you'd try to get through. The accounting book alone,

622
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 2: John Dee Accounting would kill you. So the curriculum is better,

623
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 2: Margaret Franklin, But is it the kids? Are they coming

624
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 2: out as smart? Equally or is it actually on a

625
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 2: quantitative basis more rigorous now, Well, I.

626
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 10: Think Tom, if you and I went back to go

627
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 10: write it, we would find it pretty difficult because, as

628
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 10: you know, the course is very very comprehensive, and so

629
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 10: there are things that when we wrote just weren't part

630
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 10: of the curricula. But the curricula of course keeps up

631
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 10: with what the employers are looking for because we have

632
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 10: always on assessment through a practice analysis. So I'd say

633
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 10: it remains very challenging. You know, about one in seven

634
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:00,959
Speaker 10: who started will complete it, and the assess and validation

635
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 10: of the candidate's knowledge, skills and ability is a critical

636
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 10: component and that's what differentiates it from so many programs

637
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 10: and why it remains as valued today as it did

638
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 10: sixty years ago.

639
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 2: One final question off Michael Mobison was here and his

640
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 2: contribution to the you know, Abby, Joseph Cohen, everybody that

641
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 2: supported the program here over the years, the great George

642
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 2: VanDerHeyden years ago at Fidelity. Margaret wearing God's Name is

643
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 2: CFA Level four on derivatives and the Greek letters. Bruno

644
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 2: de Pierre emails in from Bloomberg Derivatives and says Margaret,

645
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 2: when do we get level four derivative Greek letters strategy.

646
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 10: Well, everybody who's writing and everybody who's air Charter knows

647
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 10: that we will. I can confirm we will not be

648
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 10: doing a level four And Tom I will say, you

649
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 10: mentioned Frank Fobosi earlier before we came on the line,

650
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 10: so you've got you've got all the legends there counted.

651
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 2: Well we do, Margaret Franklin, thank you so much. And

652
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 2: again the level three pass rate Catherine Doherty writing in

653
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 2: Bloomberg today for thirty nine percent, and David, what you

654
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 2: heard there? One in seven and started it's through and it's.

655
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 7: What is the what is the former surveillance intern pass rate?

656
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 3: You keep tabs on that. It's pretty huge.

657
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 2: Actually, it sounds like, you know, we're humbled by that,

658
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 2: Margaret frank And out of showsvill Virginia a moment. There

659
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 2: an annual review of the Charter financial Analyst designation.

660
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

661
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

662
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

663
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just say,

664
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 1: Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.

665
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 2: Thirty, Lisa Matteo, what do you have to do?

666
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 4: Oh?

667
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 11: All right, into the newspapers.

668
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 12: Okay, so we've all written in an uber right, But

669
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 12: have you signed up for the uber one service?

670
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 4: Okay?

671
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 11: It costs nine to ninety nine a month.

672
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 12: The company said it's going to help you save some

673
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 12: money on ride bookings, food deliveries.

674
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 11: So here's the thing.

675
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 12: The FTC is saying that canceling the subscription is too difficult,

676
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 12: so it's filing a law suit now. So they promote it, right,

677
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 12: they do all these push notifications while while you're using

678
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:08,080
Speaker 12: the app. But to cancel it, here's what you have

679
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 12: to do. You have to go through about seven different

680
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 12: screens that will require at least twelve different actions. And

681
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 12: they say it's so tough that there's even these tutorials

682
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 12: that have been sparked online getting so many things, so

683
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 12: many views, and then some consumers are even saying they're

684
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 12: getting charts for it without even signing up for it.

685
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:27,239
Speaker 11: So that's the problem. It's Uber one. I do not

686
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 11: have that service, but.

687
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:29,879
Speaker 7: I see I'm getting the push alert right now.

688
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 12: You see I don't have its simple, They have done

689
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 12: push it out to you, I know, but to cancel it.

690
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:36,359
Speaker 11: They're saying it's a little bit too tough.

691
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 12: Uber says, you know, it's it's clear and simple, you

692
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:39,799
Speaker 12: can cancel it.

693
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 2: But this is part of a lot of It's like

694
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:44,799
Speaker 2: you get an email and you try to unsubscribe, and

695
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 2: so many places are wonderful about it, you know, Okay, goodbye,

696
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:51,799
Speaker 2: and then some places you can just tell they just

697
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 2: do not want you to go.

698
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:54,759
Speaker 12: Yeah, like the streaming some of the streaming ones are

699
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 12: pretty easy. You just kind of click a button and

700
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 12: you can unsubscribe. But yeah, it's Uber one.

701
00:34:59,320 --> 00:34:59,959
Speaker 2: What do you most?

702
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 12: Okay, I thought we were done talking about this, but

703
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 12: apparently not.

704
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 11: We're talking about.

705
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,839
Speaker 12: Egg prices again, not as high as they once were,

706
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 12: but they're still high of course, stir and and so

707
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 12: I'm out of stock. But the Financial Times is saying

708
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 12: the makers of those plant based eggs they're kind of

709
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:19,799
Speaker 12: trying to take advantage. So they're expanding production, launching these

710
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 12: fancy marketing campaigns. We're talking about, like I think they're

711
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 12: called Mungman based liquids.

712
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 7: Here, please please plant based egg and I've broken bread

713
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 7: with you many a time time I've never seen your

714
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 7: order of vegetable based eggs.

715
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 3: I've seen you order of vegetable once.

716
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 2: Beyond me and.

717
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:46,239
Speaker 12: Now you have eate just it's a maker of just egg,

718
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 12: just egg, just egg. So that's the one that there

719
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 12: are sales of like five times higher than you know

720
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 12: over last year.

721
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 2: These ideas people you know, fancy people from Cornell. I

722
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:56,239
Speaker 2: don't know.

723
00:35:56,880 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 12: The people are looking for alternatives, so they have to

724
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 12: for the money sumer demand for it.

725
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, just beyond me gone away?

726
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:05,399
Speaker 3: No, still around?

727
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 12: No, But that's the thing, like, is this gonna go

728
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 12: away because it's not as popular, like the beyond Me

729
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 12: going to go down?

730
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,879
Speaker 2: Eggs still out of stock? Is it just a demand thing?

731
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 9: Still?

732
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:19,280
Speaker 12: The bird flow was still so yeah, I was surprised.

733
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:20,959
Speaker 2: I wrote this weekend I couldn't get eggs.

734
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 3: It was easter. That's triple them up.

735
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 7: That's true.

736
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 2: Use potatoes.

737
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 12: You can use other substitutes like apple, sauce, mashed bananas, yogurt.

738
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 12: Che see and is seed morning here?

739
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 1: Still?

740
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 2: Is that how you say?

741
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 11: Yes?

742
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:41,360
Speaker 6: Next?

743
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:44,719
Speaker 11: Okay, this is actually an interesting look.

744
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 12: So the Washington Pos had this into the changing economics

745
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 12: of college football affecting the NFL Draft because players have

746
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 12: the option they can make more money by staying in

747
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 12: college with the NIL deals, the transfer portal, things like that.

748
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 12: So they're putting off entering into the draft.

749
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 11: So they gave this example.

750
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 12: So there's a after five years at Georgia quarterback Carson Beck. He'

751
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 12: said in December he's going to answer the draft. But

752
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 12: then in January he came back and he said, you

753
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 12: know what, I'm going to stay in college. He will

754
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,880
Speaker 12: earn an NIL package at Miami estimated to be at

755
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 12: least three million dollars a million for college kid, so

756
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 12: not too bad. And for him it made sense because

757
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:23,319
Speaker 12: he had an injury, Like, his performance wasn't as well

758
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 12: as the previous year, so it kind of made sense

759
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 12: for him to stay in college a little bit longer.

760
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 12: But they spoke with agents like and they're saying, it's

761
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 12: it's it's a different world.

762
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:33,319
Speaker 2: You know, we protect the children of the innocent here,

763
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 2: but you are living this. Lisa Matteo, you have a

764
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 2: very gifted child. Yes, basically your young child's age. It's

765
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 2: professional sports, isn't it.

766
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,919
Speaker 12: Yes, But for my child to make three million, that's

767
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 12: like kind of scary.

768
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 2: Well, if she takes. She makes eight hundred thousand. Lisa,

769
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:54,879
Speaker 2: we'll cash that check.

770
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:55,919
Speaker 7: We hope you're still here.

771
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 2: Yes, Lisa, thank you so much for the name. Image

772
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:03,880
Speaker 2: like this offspring, we should say that's doing better than

773
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:06,799
Speaker 2: good in the sport of her choice.

774
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

775
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

776
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

777
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

778
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

779
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal