1 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:05,840 Speaker 1: Hey, Marlins fans, Welcome to a new edition of Big 2 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: Fish Small Pod for Wednesday, July seventeenth, here on the 3 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: Fish on First Podcast channel, presented by MPT College Consulting. 4 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 1: I'm Eli Sussman right here. Happy All Star break. I 5 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:21,959 Speaker 1: hope everybody's resting up for a few days. Wanted to 6 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: circle back to a significant trade that happened right before 7 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: the break, one that didn't involve the Marlins, Otherwise you 8 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: obviously would have heard about it here, but it does 9 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 1: have to me a fairly direct effect on the Marlins 10 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 1: heading up to this deadline, and specifically the value of 11 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 1: aj Puck. The trade I'm referring to was on Saturday, 12 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 1: the one between the Nationals and the Royals right before 13 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 1: the MLB Draft, sending Hunter Harvey, very solid right hander 14 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 1: within the Nats bullpen, a handful of years to Kansas 15 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 1: City for third base prospects Cayden Wallace and a competitive 16 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 1: balance round draft pick, which turned out to the number 17 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 1: thirty nine overall pick in this draft by most estimations. 18 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 1: Wallace was maybe the bigger piece going back in return, 19 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 1: but fairly close second that draft pick as well. Those 20 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 1: are two significant assets. Wallace a consensus top ten prospect 21 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 1: in the Royals organization and that draft pick turning into 22 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:24,720 Speaker 1: what really comparable prospect as well. All in exchange for 23 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 1: Hunter Harvey a year and a half remaining of club control. 24 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 1: The hard throwing right hander has some closing experience, more 25 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:35,320 Speaker 1: of a seventh eighth ending guy in most contexts as well, 26 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 1: And to this point, this would be the most substantial 27 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: trade involving a reliever, obviously relevant to the Marlins because 28 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 1: Marlins have a lot of relief pitching trade assets available. 29 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: And in the aftermath of this deal, I got some 30 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 1: questions about what this meant for Tanner Scott's value, because 31 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 1: we know that Tanner is going to get traded. He's 32 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 1: a pending free agent, and his performance speaks for itself. 33 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 1: Marlins are certainly going to get whatever they can rather 34 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: than to let him leave in free agency for nothing. 35 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 1: To me, I think this is a lot more applicable 36 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: to AJ Puck, and so I'm going to show you why, 37 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 1: because on the surface, Hunter Harvey is having a better 38 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:16,799 Speaker 1: couple seasons and including in twenty twenty four. But keep 39 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 1: in mind that Puck last year started the year as 40 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 1: the Marlins closer, spent most of the year in their 41 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 1: pen one way or another. And then this year began 42 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: the season in the rotation that went horribly for a 43 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 1: few starts, one on the il for a few weeks, 44 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: came back in mid May, and since then he's been 45 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 1: really great as a reliever. So what I did through 46 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 1: fanographs is they look back since the start of last 47 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 1: season twenty twenty three and just filtered out the starts 48 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 1: that Puck has made, because if you were still watching 49 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 1: aj Puck at the start of this year, it was 50 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 1: clear he was just a different guy in the rotation. 51 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:55,360 Speaker 1: His stuff was completely different, His pitch usage was different 52 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 1: and ineffective, and I don't think that is going to 53 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 1: hinder his value any I don't think it should affect 54 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 1: his value one way or another. So this year, like 55 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 1: his overall stats are underwhelming, but a lot is because 56 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: he pissed the bed in those four starts that he 57 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: made for the Marlins. It's a four to seven three 58 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 1: era overall, it's a fip right around four. It's really unremarkable, 59 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:18,360 Speaker 1: and to a walk rate that is a lot higher 60 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,959 Speaker 1: than usual. But if you just focus on the relief 61 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 1: appearances the last two seasons, and for those watching on 62 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 1: YouTube can see this. The stats between Harvey and Puck 63 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 1: as a reliever since start at twenty twenty three are 64 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 1: freakishly identical. It's a three four one ERA and three 65 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 1: two three FIP for Harvey. It's a three four seven 66 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: ERA and a three point three to two FIP for Puck. 67 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: Just hundredths of a runs difference in those major categories. 68 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 1: In terms of strikeouts, Puck is a little bit ahead, 69 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: and in terms of allowing walks, essentially identical two walks 70 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 1: per nine for both of them. That's what'stood out above 71 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: Puck last year, and that's what has been the big 72 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 1: difference since going back to the pen this year. He 73 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: has really awesome control that you don't usually see from 74 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: high leverage guys. Puck is twenty nine years old. Harvey 75 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: is twenty nine years old. Puck is earning a little 76 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:18,840 Speaker 1: less than two million dollars this year Hunter Harvey is 77 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,160 Speaker 1: earning a little bit more than two million dollars this year. 78 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:23,720 Speaker 1: Both of them get ground balls a little bit above 79 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 1: the league average, and both of them do have some 80 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:29,159 Speaker 1: closing experience. As I mentioned with Puck, that was all 81 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: that came for the first half of last year. He 82 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:36,480 Speaker 1: picked up one save this year when Tanner Scott was unavailable. 83 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 1: Also importantly, Puck is if you want to go into 84 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 1: what have you done for me lately? He is pitching 85 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 1: the best baseball of his career lately, and it may 86 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 1: have gone under the radar. He has had five consecutive 87 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:55,480 Speaker 1: hitless appearances in July. For Puck, he's not allowed an 88 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 1: earned run in exactly a month since June seventeenth. I'm 89 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 1: talking here on July seventeenth, and he's only walked to 90 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 1: batters during that entire month long stretch. As well, he's 91 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 1: been hot, he's peaking at the right time, and the 92 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: stuff kind of backs it up. His fastball looks explosive. 93 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 1: It's the highest velocity we've seen from him as a Marlin, 94 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:22,559 Speaker 1: where he's really consistently hitting ninety eight or ninety nine 95 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,279 Speaker 1: in his outings when he needs it and locating that 96 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 1: pitch really well. And we already know that Puck has 97 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:31,279 Speaker 1: a great sweeper that was kind of the key to 98 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: his success for much of last year with the Marlins. 99 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:38,160 Speaker 1: So that's a comparison that maybe not a lot of 100 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 1: other people are making because he had the filter out 101 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: the starts and I feel that that was appropriate in 102 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 1: this case. Harvey is under control the rest of this 103 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:49,040 Speaker 1: year and all of next year, which explains the return 104 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 1: that they were able to get for him. Puck is 105 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: under control the rest of this year and next year 106 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 1: and twenty twenty six as well. It's an extra year 107 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 1: of club control. So how much that matters, I think, well, 108 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 1: I think it definitely does matter, maybe not as much 109 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: as he might assume for an ordinary player, because relievers 110 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:09,719 Speaker 1: are so fickle. So it's two million this year for 111 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:12,280 Speaker 1: puckets probably gonna be three and a half or four 112 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 1: million dollars salary for twenty twenty five, and that's gonna 113 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 1: go up again. You think in twenty twenty six he 114 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:21,279 Speaker 1: actually has to perform fairly well. The injury history is 115 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:24,599 Speaker 1: worth noting. Harvey has been on the IL both in 116 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three and twenty twenty two. Puck has been 117 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 1: on the IL essentially every year of his career, with 118 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 1: the exception of twenty twenty two, the year before he 119 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: got traded over to Marlins, who was fine, but he 120 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 1: missed a little bit time last year, missed a little 121 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:40,600 Speaker 1: bit of time this year as well with Puck, and 122 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 1: I'm sure. You know he had Tommy John surgery early 123 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:45,239 Speaker 1: in his career. There's a bit of a shelf life 124 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 1: to that ligaments. You don't know if that may blow 125 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 1: out at some point during his remaining team ConTroll years. 126 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 1: So yeah, not gonna bring back a franchise changing talent 127 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:59,159 Speaker 1: right here. But just to reiterate, like, what this trade 128 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: return is is Cayden Wallace. Have you pluged him into 129 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: the Marlin system right now? Even following the draft? You 130 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:08,239 Speaker 1: know that's a top ten prospect in the Marlin system 131 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 1: right there. But the competitive balance round pick not that 132 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 1: far behind, so it's too late to replicate this trade. 133 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 1: You can't trade draft picks right after they've been traded 134 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 1: in that case. But still, I think it's reasonable to 135 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: assume a very similar, if not a slightly better return 136 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: than what the Nats ended up getting in a similar setup, 137 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 1: sending a reliever to a contending team that really needs it, 138 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: and with Puck the other thing in his favor. The 139 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: other factor worth noting is his handedness. He is a 140 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 1: left handed pitcher. Harvey a right hander, and we see 141 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 1: it over and over again that the scarcity of lefties 142 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 1: does help out their value. So I think You just 143 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 1: look at all the potential tiebreakers here between Harvey and 144 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 1: Puck value wise, and all them lean towards Puck right here. 145 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 1: The only thing is they're holding on to him a 146 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 1: little bit longer. And I don't know if I doubt 147 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 1: the Royals would be able to would be willing to 148 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 1: sacrifice more prospect talents in the here and now to 149 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 1: add another bullpen arm. I think the Royals are likely 150 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 1: to cross them off the list as a team that 151 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 1: you'd be talking about a relief deal with. There's still 152 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: a lot of other contenders out there. Really should not 153 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 1: be any shorts of teams that are looking for a 154 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 1: high leverage guy left hander who is pitching as well 155 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:35,200 Speaker 1: as he ever has right now for Puck. And I'm 156 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 1: on the record as saying that the starting rotation experiment 157 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 1: was worthwhile went horribly wrong, it was worth a shot, 158 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 1: especially considering where the Marlins were rotation depth wise entering 159 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 1: the regular season. And you know, credit to Puck for 160 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,680 Speaker 1: bouncing back and recovering when things went poorly. He was 161 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: able to reset and now pitch the way that he has. 162 00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 1: It's going under the radar just because of how those 163 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:03,439 Speaker 1: starts really imploded. So many of his stats across the board. 164 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 1: I think the teams themselves can look past that in 165 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 1: the same way if I can do it, then they 166 00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 1: can certainly do it and see how well that Puck 167 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 1: is performing. Right here, no urgency to trade Puck because 168 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 1: of the two and a half years remaining of club control. 169 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 1: If you're being realistic as the Marlins, though, is this 170 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 1: team going to be a contending team within the next 171 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 1: two and a half years? And if there's any question 172 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: about that, and I think there is very serious doubt 173 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 1: about that, then this might be selling about as high 174 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 1: as you ever can on Puck. So while I'm unclear 175 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 1: as whether he'll actually go, has my recommendation, and as 176 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 1: long as the Marlins set the Harvey trade as their bar, 177 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 1: I think they should be able to clear that bar 178 00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 1: what they get in return for Puck at the deadline whatever, 179 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 1: and if they do come anywhere close to that, that 180 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 1: would exceed you know, what they give up in the 181 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 1: first place to get them. The way that JJ Blede 182 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 1: was valued at the time in early twenty twenty three 183 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: is less than the trade value that the Nats got 184 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:08,640 Speaker 1: in exchange for Wallace and the competitive balance round pick 185 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,560 Speaker 1: right there, so they would come out ahead in the 186 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:15,319 Speaker 1: aggregate if assuming, you know, things go smoothly for Puck 187 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 1: his first few outs coming out of the All Star Break, 188 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 1: only thirteen days and counting until the deadline, Plenty of 189 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:26,199 Speaker 1: coverage coming on all things Marlins here on Fish on First, 190 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:28,560 Speaker 1: So thanks for sticking with us. This has been Eli 191 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:32,079 Speaker 1: Sussman here on the Fish on First podcast presented by 192 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 1: MPT College Consulting. Check them out MPT College Consulting dot com. 193 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 1: Enjoy the rest of the break and we'll have a 194 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: whole lot more as leading up to this also important 195 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 1: deadline on July thirtieth. Go Fish