1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 2: I think inflation is a huge part of the story, 3 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:23,919 Speaker 2: a huge headwind to politicians, and it's not going to 4 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 2: be a meaningful to wind anytime. 5 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: See Welcome to voter Nomics, where politics and markets collide. 6 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 1: This year, voters around the world have the ability to 7 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 1: affect markets, countries, and economies like never before. So here 8 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:41,199 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg, we've created this series to help you make 9 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 1: sense of it all. Back for another week. I'm alegro Stratton, 10 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:46,560 Speaker 1: I'm Adroom Woodridge. 11 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:49,559 Speaker 3: And I'm Stephanie Flanders. This week in Dubai. Why are 12 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 3: you in Dubai, Steph, Well, you know this, this vast 13 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 3: empire that I control of Bloomberg, or at least this 14 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 3: large number of reporters in economy also include Dubai. Absolutely 15 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 3: it does, and there's different bits of the empire converge 16 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 3: in Dubai. 17 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: Well, at the top of the show you heard from 18 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 1: Karen Ward of JP Morgan Asset Management. We're going to 19 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 1: speak to her a little bit later and she's going 20 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 1: to help us unpick those difficult dynamics between economics and politics. 21 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 1: Also on the show this week, we have Bloomberg reporter 22 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: Craig Trudeau, who is our tesla expert here in London. Steph, 23 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: how big is his team? See? Does he fly solo 24 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 1: or has he got lots and lots of people? 25 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 3: I suspect he's got more and more people. We have 26 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 3: discovered that you can support a whole Elon Musk podcast, 27 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 3: and I suspect over time we will just acquire a 28 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 3: larger and larger team covering what he's doing. 29 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: So he's going to be for those for Muska fiscionados. 30 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 1: He's going to be joining us in a second to 31 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:45,679 Speaker 1: talk about Elon Musk's deal with China and also what 32 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: the TikTok bill tells us about this phenomenon of tech decoupling. 33 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 1: But first, Adrian, you have a B in your bonnet. 34 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 4: Yes, I was very struck by William Haig's column in 35 00:01:56,960 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 4: The Times this week. And I think William Hage is 36 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 4: a very good columnist. I always enjoy his column in 37 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 4: the Times, but this week I was a bit disappointed. 38 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 4: He argued in this column that this is the era 39 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 4: of elections, which is what we're all about here, and 40 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:13,959 Speaker 4: he said, so far it's been a great trime for democracy. 41 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 4: More than four hundred million people have gone to the polls, 42 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 4: and those people have been exercising their rights extremely well 43 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 4: with good effects. And he points to the example of Turkey, 44 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 4: poland various other examples. And as I read this, I 45 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 4: thought that may be true, but they haven't really changed 46 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 4: the direction of history. And the one big election that 47 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 4: looms over everything else, which is the US election in November, 48 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 4: that can hardly be categorized as a trime for democracy. 49 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 4: We have two really old candidates, one of whom has 50 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 4: led an insurrection as many of us would see it, 51 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 4: one of whom is looking visibly very elderly, and a 52 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:54,640 Speaker 4: real possibility that election will go down to a very 53 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 4: few votes in a very few places, which will spark 54 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:00,920 Speaker 4: civil disobedience. So looking at William's excusamples of a few 55 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 4: good things about democracy, I didn't feel myself really thinking, yes, 56 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 4: this is a great system in the great flushings of triumph. 57 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: I felt it was a bit of a list of 58 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 1: elections that have taken place, and I wasn't sure. I 59 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 1: thought perhaps there was a little bit of cherry picking. 60 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 1: And actually, for me, the more interesting things are how 61 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 1: you have across the Western world or more developed, richer economies. 62 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: This deep dissatisfaction with democracy, and you can see in 63 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 1: the polling in developing economies, actually there's more of an 64 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 1: enthusiasm and a sense of that democracy may yet deliver 65 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: for them, and it may yet raise living standards itself. 66 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 4: That Hague is writing that column at the beginning of 67 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 4: this huge six week process soon say, of the Indian elections, 68 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 4: and that is an election which really features one man. 69 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 4: There isn't really a significant opposition to Mody, and Mody 70 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 4: is an illiberal democrat. He's somebody who, whilst quite popular 71 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 4: and going to win the election, is eroding basic many 72 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 4: of the basic constraints on the power of central government. 73 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 4: He's a sort of ceo figure. He's a strong man figure. 74 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 4: He's not an example of liberalism. He's the worst sort 75 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 4: of modern democracy. So again I thought, actually democracy only 76 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 4: really works when it's qualified by liberalism. Democracy as a 77 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 4: sort of triumph of populism isn't very good. So even 78 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:22,039 Speaker 4: in the emerging world, where you do have a general 79 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,160 Speaker 4: sense of optimism and growth, indias growing by six or 80 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 4: seven percent a year, you don't have an ideal version 81 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 4: of democracy being put in place in the world's biggest democracy. 82 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 1: Because we're guarded the way through this huge year of elections. 83 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: What do you think the picture is when we're fully through. 84 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 4: I'd say that my example would be India, the world's 85 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 4: biggest democracy, a strong man winning, and the United States, 86 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 4: which I suspect will produce a lot of civil disorder. 87 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 4: I think if it was a close election, it'll be 88 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 4: a very unpleasant election. And it's a choice between two people, 89 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 4: neither of whom, in my opinion, should be running because 90 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 4: the party apparatuses couldn't get it together to choose in 91 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,480 Speaker 4: this vast country, two people who are a bit more 92 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:04,599 Speaker 4: appetizing than Trump and Biden. 93 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 3: I did think it was a reminder, since you're dumping 94 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 3: on William Haig lifting up his column only to tear 95 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:12,799 Speaker 3: it down again, I thought that it was a useful 96 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 3: reminder that these a lot of elections have already taken 97 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:18,719 Speaker 3: place that involve a large chunk of the population or 98 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:22,479 Speaker 3: are now ongoing. So and if you think of Indonesia, 99 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 3: Russia and India, by the time that's finished, that's nearly 100 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:30,479 Speaker 3: two billion people who will have cast their vote. Although 101 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 3: we make a lot of the uncertainty created by all 102 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 3: these elections, that two billions were were never in doubt. 103 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 3: We've got all places where the incumbent won and it 104 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 3: was no surprise. Whether it's Pakistan, Taiwan, Bangladesh. I'm not 105 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:48,159 Speaker 3: sure I would read the results as positively as William 106 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 3: Haigu does. The Pakistani voters did deliver a rebuke to 107 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 3: the military, but the military rigged the system so much 108 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 3: that still nothing's changed, and the same person became Prime 109 00:05:55,960 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 3: minister Bangladesh, the incumbent authoritarian one, even though there was 110 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 3: something of a backlash, the strongman one in Indonesia. So 111 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 3: I think it's so far it's the incumbents, and as 112 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 3: you say, Adrian the not necessarily the most democratic of incumbents. 113 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 1: And one last point for me, which was in his piece, 114 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 1: he ended up talking a lot about the importance of 115 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:18,919 Speaker 1: local elections, which obviously we're going to see in the 116 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 1: UK this week. To be clear, we're recording this before 117 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 1: people have gone to the polls. But one of the 118 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,720 Speaker 1: aspects which our reporter Alva Ray points out in her 119 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: piece from she went to both Teaside and West Midlands 120 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:34,480 Speaker 1: was that it's looking like turnout will be incredibly low. 121 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:37,919 Speaker 1: So we keep having these establishment figures saying the answer 122 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 1: is drive power out to local elections, have more power 123 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,839 Speaker 1: nearer to people. When you actually look at those elections, 124 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 1: people sort. 125 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 3: Of shrug yeah, because they're so denuded of any power 126 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:48,720 Speaker 3: in the UK. 127 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:51,600 Speaker 1: Look at what Ben Haushin's done in Teaside. He's done 128 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 1: quite a lot with what he with the powers that 129 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 1: he does have. But it will be interesting to see 130 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 1: the turnout when we've actually got some facts to dissect. 131 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,159 Speaker 1: So let's get to our on the ground reporters for 132 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 1: the week. We're fortunate enough to have this week's guest 133 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: with us here in London. Reporter Craig Trudell. You dedicate 134 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:15,480 Speaker 1: most of your waking hours to following the latest Tesla 135 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: and Musk news, don't you, Craig. 136 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 5: It's been a few crazy few weeks on the Musk. 137 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 5: Be it fun. 138 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 1: So Mauksk has obviously been to China. Just give us 139 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 1: what it all means. 140 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, this was a surprise. It was a sort of 141 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 5: over the weekend wake up and oh Musk is in 142 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 5: Beijing in India. But then yeah, a week earlier he 143 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 5: was due to be in India and he was supposed 144 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 5: to meet Prime Minister Modi. It was a highly anticipated 145 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 5: trip where everybody was expecting Tesla to announce a new 146 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 5: plant in India, which would be quite a big deal. 147 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 5: That got thrown out the window at the eleventh hour, 148 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 5: and a week later, Lo and behold, Musk shows up 149 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 5: in Beijing. And I think it really speaks to the 150 00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 5: idea that Musk still very much needs China. He very 151 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 5: much rode their support to the position he's in today 152 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 5: of having the world leading electric vehicle company, and in 153 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 5: order to cling to that position he needs some help 154 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 5: again from the CCP. 155 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 1: He actually did achieve things with this trip. It did 156 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 1: actually move the ball out of the pitch for him. 157 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 2: Yeah. 158 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 5: I think a couple of hard developments that did come 159 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 5: out of this. One was a partnership with Baidu, which 160 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:34,840 Speaker 5: is China's Google, effectively a deal for mapping and navigation, 161 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 5: and that's one element of if you want to put 162 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 5: these systems on the market in China, you need to 163 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 5: have such a partnership. And he also just got another 164 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 5: sort of incremental regulatory step having to do with something 165 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 5: very similar with data collection and storage in China. 166 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 3: I maye Craig have got to the point where I'm 167 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 3: just seeing decuttling and deglobalization everywhere I look. But I 168 00:08:56,760 --> 00:09:00,320 Speaker 3: was very struck by that deal sort of cementing something 169 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 3: that we see and you feel very much when you 170 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 3: go to China is just a completely separate economy being 171 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 3: developed in sort of key ways, particularly since COVID you 172 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 3: can't use Western cards, people constantly having to borrow money 173 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 3: for the taxis because all the things that used to 174 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 3: work no longer work, and things like Tesla. If you're 175 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 3: working for the Chinese government. Someone had told me who 176 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 3: works with Chinese government, you can't drive a Tesla into 177 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 3: a government car park and leave it there. There's constraints 178 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 3: on what you can do. So the idea that you're 179 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 3: actually locking in parallel technologies and potentially laying the ground 180 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 3: for a complete technological decoupling struck me as it was 181 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 3: coming through very strongly in this deal and being cemented. Yeah. 182 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 5: Absolutely, and this goes back a couple of years. Actually, 183 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:52,679 Speaker 5: we broke the news about this idea that China had 184 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 5: moved to ban Tesla's from military facilities, having to do 185 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:01,560 Speaker 5: with the concerns that these driver assistants systems that Tesla's 186 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 5: betting big on are reliant on cameras and so these 187 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 5: cars are rolling around everywhere, taking in footage everywhere they go, 188 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 5: and there's a real concern on the part of the 189 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 5: government of wait a second, where is that footage going. 190 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:15,440 Speaker 5: Is it staying here or is it going back to 191 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 5: the US? And at the moment, given the fact that 192 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 5: Musk is trying to perfect or improve these systems by 193 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 5: training them with supercomputers, there's real concern about that data 194 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 5: going from China back to the US. And I think 195 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 5: we're seeing this kind of left and right in the 196 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:34,960 Speaker 5: car industry, where when you go to China you can 197 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 5: find incredibly cheap evs that you can't find in the West. 198 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 5: You can find these driver assistance systems for much more 199 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 5: affordable prices than you can find in the US if 200 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:49,840 Speaker 5: you want to have this similar capability in a tesla. 201 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:53,959 Speaker 5: It's absolutely the case that there's a sort of dual 202 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 5: track here. 203 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:56,679 Speaker 4: But on the one hand, we've got this duel track 204 00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:59,959 Speaker 4: economy developing. On the other hand, the world's richest America 205 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:03,680 Speaker 4: goes over his genre and solves an American problem and 206 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 4: stop valuation goes up. Isn't that an extraordinary confusion? 207 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:07,959 Speaker 3: I think so. 208 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 5: I think it's fascinating because this is someone who, oh, 209 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:14,960 Speaker 5: by the way, has just you know, more than just 210 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:19,080 Speaker 5: Tesla as part of his business empire, and has repeatedly 211 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:23,199 Speaker 5: made these accommodations or these statements that are very China friendly. 212 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 5: I go back to some of the comments that he's 213 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 5: made about Taiwan and weighing in on things there to 214 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 5: where Taiwan has no interest in, for instance, using Starlink 215 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 5: his satellites business that he's building with SpaceX. I do 216 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 5: think it is also very interesting that this is coming 217 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 5: on the heels of the TikTok ban or so called 218 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 5: ban and in the US, and he has also taken 219 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 5: a position on that. While we're talking about this idea 220 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 5: that he's very China friendly, even as the owner of 221 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 5: X formerly Twitter, he came out and said, you know what, 222 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,599 Speaker 5: I don't think that we should do this with the US. 223 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 3: Which cool the sort of double standard that none of 224 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 3: the big US social media firms, none of them can 225 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 3: operate in China, but you now have the US legislation 226 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 3: to potentially band TikTok if they don't transfer ownership to 227 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 3: a non Chinese company. It did also it just it 228 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 3: struck me that the definition of a strategic asset of 229 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 3: you know, what is a national security threat just keeps 230 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:28,800 Speaker 3: broadening all the time. China has always potentially had a 231 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 3: very expansive definition of that, as we've seen in the 232 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 3: controls it already had, and the US are starting to 233 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:38,079 Speaker 3: go down that road. It makes you feel when Jake 234 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 3: Sullivan talks about having small yards with a high fence 235 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 3: and the sense that we're not really going to decouple 236 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 3: or divide the global economy. We're just going to have 237 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 3: certain things that we protect. The certain things we protect 238 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 3: seem to be expanding all the time. 239 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, and I think that's absolutely right. And along those lines, 240 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 5: I think one of the things that we've been reporting 241 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 5: out of Washington recently, there have been concerns among folks, 242 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 5: whether it's in Washington or in Brussels, about how cheap 243 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 5: these Chinese electric vehicles are, and China has much more 244 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 5: capacity than they have demand. That's something that Janet Yellen 245 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 5: has made quite a lot of noise about recently, including 246 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 5: on her trip to China. I think it's very much 247 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 5: the case that in trying to put up barriers to 248 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 5: keep Chinese evs out of the US, Gina Romando is 249 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 5: talking about not just raising tariffs that, by the way, 250 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:36,079 Speaker 5: we're raised under the Trump presidency, but looking at whether 251 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 5: or not there is a path to blocking these vehicles 252 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:44,200 Speaker 5: on national security grounds, which is very reminiscent of exactly 253 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 5: what China was doing over the last couple of years 254 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 5: of being cagey about where Tesla's can go on its soil. 255 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:54,319 Speaker 3: So you do think it could be an election issue 256 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 3: in Washington. 257 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 5: I absolutely seeing it being the case. I think Biden 258 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 5: absolutely made EV's a big part of his Inflation Reduction Act, 259 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 5: his signature of climate law, and the fact that Trump, 260 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 5: on the other hand, very notably recently referred to the 261 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 5: idea that for the auto industry, if he doesn't get elected, 262 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 5: there will be a quote bloodbath. We've absolutely heard a 263 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 5: lot of back and forth, including late last year with 264 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 5: the UAW strike and Biden going on the picket line, 265 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 5: the first US president to do so here in the UK. 266 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 5: I don't necessarily see it breaking through, but it is 267 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 5: fascinating to me that as an American reading the papers 268 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 5: here day to day, the sort of alarmism of whether 269 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 5: this whole ev transition makes sense or as worthwhile or 270 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 5: is bogus, it is relentless. I just find that there 271 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 5: is quite a bit of negativity about whether these evs 272 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 5: make any sense, despite the fact that they have been 273 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 5: making really remarkable progress the last half decade. 274 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 1: So a comparison in contrast of the UK and US 275 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:00,200 Speaker 1: election seems like a pretty good place to leave that 276 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 1: chat in this latest edition of Photonomics. 277 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 3: Thank you very much, Craig, Thank you, Greg. 278 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 5: That was great, Thank you that was fun. 279 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, you'll be back you so much. 280 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 2: So. 281 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,840 Speaker 1: Last week with the first edition of Photonomics, you guys 282 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: talked to Neil Ferguson about his reflections on how economics 283 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:29,119 Speaker 1: and politics are colliding in America. It was a punchy chat. 284 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 4: Adrian, absolutely I learned to iard a great deal. Some 285 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 4: of it I agreed with, some of them I didn't 286 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 4: agree with. But Neil is always informative and provocative. 287 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 3: I also noticed that the comparison we were a little 288 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 3: bit ahead of the game. We were thinking of the 289 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 3: potential comparisons with sixty eight and politics. I became increasingly 290 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 3: glad over the course of the last week discussion because 291 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 3: I read an awful lot of people just deciding that 292 00:15:56,760 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 3: we were potentially even with the Chicago conveyed in August, 293 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 3: that we wereating a rerun of sixty eight. 294 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 4: We're with the first people to throw Richard Nixon into 295 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 4: the mix. 296 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:09,480 Speaker 3: I think so if that would say that, regardless of 297 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 3: whether it's true, I'm convinced it's true. 298 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 1: So if that was Neil Ferguson last week. This week, 299 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 1: to help us chew over these issues, we've invited JP Morgan, 300 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 1: Asset Management Chief Market Strategists for Europe Karen Ward to 301 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 1: join us in this week's conversation. Karen was a former 302 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 1: Bank of England economist and also a former advisor to 303 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 1: the UK Chancellor dix Chequer Jeremy Hunt. We started by 304 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 1: asking her if she's seeing the theme of this podcast photonomics, 305 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 1: so economics and politics colliding cropping up in her day 306 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:39,920 Speaker 1: job all the time. 307 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,880 Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, and there's always a question as to when 308 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 2: it becomes the dominant force that's impacting markets. One thing 309 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 2: I've always found amazing in twenty years of doing this 310 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 2: is ignored until a single day and then it's the 311 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 2: only thing that we talk about. We haven't quite turned 312 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 2: back corner just yet, but I think certainly trying to 313 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 2: think through what are the policy ramifications of different electoral 314 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,880 Speaker 2: outcomes is starting to come on to the radar for sure, and. 315 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 1: What in that context, what are the sort of pieces 316 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 1: of advice you're getting ready for people. 317 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 2: I think in the US it's really through three lenses. 318 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 2: The first is the obvious one, fiscal policy, what's the 319 00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 2: outlook for tax and spend? And I think our starting 320 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 2: point in the US is what's concerning because the US 321 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 2: has an incredibly strong economy, but it also has a 322 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 2: six percent fiscal deficit, which is rather an odd point 323 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 2: to be at when you have record low unemployment. You 324 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,880 Speaker 2: really shouldn't be running a six percent deficit at that time. 325 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 2: So what are how does that evolve and what do 326 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 2: the different parties mean for how that will evolve? Are 327 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:52,680 Speaker 2: any parties credibly talking about how they will reduce spending 328 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,639 Speaker 2: or how they will raise taxes? Doesn't really seem to 329 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 2: be a big part of the dialogue. If anything, the 330 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:02,399 Speaker 2: discussion is more about whether there's any prospect for further 331 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 2: tax cuts, So fiscal policy always the most critical edge. 332 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 2: I think the other two aspects that are particularly key 333 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 2: for me when looking at the US are how some 334 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 2: of the policies might feed into inflation, because certainly for 335 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 2: markets for bond yields. The question of whether those inflation 336 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 2: problems are really behind us or not is still absolutely critical, 337 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:31,200 Speaker 2: and the two policy pieces that fit into that puzzle 338 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 2: are migration and tariffs. The US has had this enormous 339 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,120 Speaker 2: flow of migration into the economy over the last couple 340 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:45,679 Speaker 2: of years, and that's really helped ease the pressures of 341 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:49,159 Speaker 2: demand on supply. It helped that economy cope with record 342 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 2: low unemployment and still bring down wage growth and eased 343 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 2: some of the inflationary pressures. So migration's actually acted economically 344 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 2: like a real safety valve. Now, when you look at 345 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:05,160 Speaker 2: what voters are saying about what's concerning them, they are 346 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,479 Speaker 2: clearly less convinced about the economic benefits, and it's one 347 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 2: of the key points of concern amongst the electorates. So 348 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:17,239 Speaker 2: how the different parties tackle migration is the other. What 349 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:19,560 Speaker 2: they might do, how quickly they might turn off any 350 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:24,879 Speaker 2: migration taps is really key. And then taris, who taris 351 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 2: will be placed on, What are the scope for those tariffs? 352 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 2: How that is part of the geopolitical tensions that are 353 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 2: another central feature. But then how the tariffs play into 354 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:38,240 Speaker 2: the inflation story. 355 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,920 Speaker 4: Also, is it possible to look at the United States 356 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:45,880 Speaker 4: presidential election through this very rational economic framework that you've 357 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:49,120 Speaker 4: just laid out. When you have such a bizarre and 358 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 4: intemperate figure as Donald Trump as the sort of one 359 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:53,159 Speaker 4: of the two main players. 360 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,159 Speaker 2: I think you have to sit back. Certainly in my 361 00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 2: job as a sort of medium term investor, you really 362 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 2: have to do that exercise. And actually, this isn't really 363 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 2: just with regards to the US. It's with every part 364 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 2: of the world and every potential politician. And you sit 365 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 2: back and you think, Okay, this is what they're saying, 366 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 2: but let's just think through the economic reality of them 367 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,120 Speaker 2: delivering what they're saying. And I think quite often when 368 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:25,680 Speaker 2: you do that rational exercise of thinking, that's what they're saying, 369 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 2: but if they do that in practice, the domestic economic 370 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 2: cost of doing so might be really quite grave, and 371 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:37,879 Speaker 2: so actually, when they are in office, they may choose 372 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 2: to take a different route. I think it's really important 373 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:45,679 Speaker 2: whenever you're hearing particularly very strong political figures making big statements, 374 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,719 Speaker 2: to think that might sound good to the electorate now, 375 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,880 Speaker 2: but what are the realities of delivering that, and therefore, 376 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 2: when in office, is it really going to happen? 377 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,640 Speaker 4: Sure? But for the last thirty years or so, we've 378 00:20:56,680 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 4: had economics as the master science, and everybody's really deferred 379 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 4: to economics. Now we're in a different world in which 380 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,280 Speaker 4: politics is much more important and politicians do sorts of 381 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,000 Speaker 4: things that economists would never have thought that they would. 382 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 4: I mean the Trump tariffs being in the last Trump 383 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:14,920 Speaker 4: presidency classic example of that. Isn't it just the case 384 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:18,680 Speaker 4: that we don't live in a predictable, rational world anymore 385 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 4: and politics is just much much more volatile and much 386 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 4: more of an independent variable. 387 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:28,119 Speaker 2: I think we do have to our professional economics profession 388 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:32,199 Speaker 2: really has to think about what is the lens of 389 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:39,080 Speaker 2: different cohorts or different members of society, what is their economics, 390 00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 2: and how might that influence the politics. So what I 391 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 2: mean by that is, for years you've heard the IMF, 392 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 2: these big international groups acknowledging and understanding the fact that globalization, 393 00:21:54,960 --> 00:22:00,320 Speaker 2: for example, has seemingly done tremendous economic good what the 394 00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 2: economists would all have predicted should have happened for everybody's benefit. 395 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 2: But we know the benefits weren't spread equally amongst society, 396 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:13,399 Speaker 2: and we were left with a segment of the population 397 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 2: that was termed the left behind. And I think for 398 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:20,439 Speaker 2: those individuals, they are still operating I'd argue on economics, 399 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 2: but it's their own personal economics. They're not seeing their 400 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 2: income levels rise, they're not seeing their wealth rise like 401 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:33,200 Speaker 2: certain other segments of the population. They're not feeling confident 402 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,679 Speaker 2: their children are going to have better living standards. And 403 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:38,639 Speaker 2: I think that's where our profession has to be a 404 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:44,880 Speaker 2: little bit careful about assuming the aggregate economists is right 405 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 2: or that's the way things are going to flow. 406 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 3: And that was that somewhat related to that. I was 407 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:50,640 Speaker 3: going to pick you up on one of the things 408 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 3: you were noting about the US, and the classic economics 409 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 3: approach to this is to welcome immigration as a source 410 00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:01,159 Speaker 3: of labor force growth because what's often driving the growth 411 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 3: in overall output. But it is also one of the 412 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 3: things that when you look across quite a lot of 413 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 3: elections this year, some of the common features are great 414 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:15,479 Speaker 3: concern around immigration and whether well founded or not, and 415 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,840 Speaker 3: great concern around housing. And if you look at somewhere 416 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 3: like Australia or Canada, the two are combined. They've had 417 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 3: massive immigration, and actually that has caused enormous pressure on 418 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 3: housing market because they haven't built enough houses, and we've 419 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,919 Speaker 3: actually looked at how that can also mean that a 420 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 3: country that looks like it's had decent growth from your 421 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:36,879 Speaker 3: perspective for ordinary people, actually the per capita growth, if 422 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 3: you like, per head has not gone up. I think 423 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,879 Speaker 3: there's thirteen countries that we estimate across the developed world 424 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 3: have had per capita recession. So if you're just looking 425 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,480 Speaker 3: at growth per head and not growth overall, which doesn't 426 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 3: necessarily affect individual people, if it's accompanied by increased population, 427 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:59,879 Speaker 3: pretty that's a very politically salient aspect of the economic 428 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 3: model that we've had in many of these countries. 429 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:09,640 Speaker 2: Absolutely, it's a very contentious topic, whether it's about how 430 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 2: people are integrated socially, how they're integrated economically. The Pew 431 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:17,040 Speaker 2: Institute says that migration is the top concern that the 432 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:21,120 Speaker 2: US citizens want their new government to tackle. 433 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 3: And we as economists are saying, oh, great, there's no 434 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:27,160 Speaker 3: recession in Canada, Australia, But actually the people have had 435 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 3: recessions and they've noticed even before you start thinking about inflation, 436 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 3: because their income has not gone up. 437 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,679 Speaker 4: You have a very peculiar situation in the United States 438 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,399 Speaker 4: at the moment, don't you whereby we should have an 439 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 4: incumbent president sailing towards reelection because the economy is doing 440 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,800 Speaker 4: very well, and for the first time in sometimes people 441 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 4: at the bottom of the income scale are beginning to 442 00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,679 Speaker 4: share in some of the prosperity. But you have a 443 00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,680 Speaker 4: lot of angst in the country, and there are many 444 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 4: reasons for that, but one of them, surely is the 445 00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 4: angst about uncontrolled immigration or a fe of uncontrolled immigration, 446 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:02,720 Speaker 4: Isn't it? 447 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 2: Absolutely that's what all the surveys point to of the 448 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 2: electra What is the chief concern that they want tackled, 449 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:13,919 Speaker 2: and yes, whether it is alleviating labor market pressures. And 450 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 2: again it comes back to my point about individual economics 451 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:21,639 Speaker 2: that versus aggregate economic it's an individual will say, well, okay, 452 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 2: you may think that, isn't that wonderful that wage growth 453 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 2: has eased because migration has eased some of the pressures 454 00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:31,840 Speaker 2: in the labor market. Hang on a second, wage growth easing, 455 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:33,600 Speaker 2: that's not good for me at all. I want my 456 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:37,440 Speaker 2: wage growth to continue accelerating. So I think that's the 457 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:41,360 Speaker 2: real challenge is the individual economics presses agrigate. 458 00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,600 Speaker 1: One of the things that's doing the rounds as we say, 459 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:46,960 Speaker 1: is that somebody has told Andrew Marre at The New 460 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:51,200 Speaker 1: Statesman that a Labor government wouldn't necessarily reverse Rwanda the 461 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,680 Speaker 1: Rwanda Plan immediately, and that's going to cause all sorts 462 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,639 Speaker 1: of trouble for kised Arma because he's either got to 463 00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 1: come out and say yes I will, which point that's 464 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,840 Speaker 1: quite tricky for him, because there is a swathe of 465 00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,640 Speaker 1: the constituency's now trying to win in the Red Wall 466 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 1: who want to see him having that tough line on 467 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 1: immigration for the reasons you're discussing. And then there's also 468 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 1: another constituency and it's being pointed out on Twitter a 469 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,280 Speaker 1: lot today, which is if Labour's about to do incredibly 470 00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,960 Speaker 1: well in Scotland, that's a place where actually this harder 471 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 1: line on migration doesn't go down so well, that's not 472 00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,760 Speaker 1: what they're looking for. And because some has this coalition 473 00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,119 Speaker 1: which is not dissimilar to the Boris Johnson coalition that 474 00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 1: he's trying to assemble, which is on the one hand, 475 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:33,680 Speaker 1: those Red Wall voters as was became conservative, some is 476 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 1: now trying to win them back who want that toughness 477 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 1: on immigration, and then on the other hand that's softer 478 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,520 Speaker 1: left politics that really don't and it sends a kind 479 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 1: of a smell test for them is not good. So 480 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 1: we'll read today we're seeing the politics of this in 481 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,680 Speaker 1: the UK being quite uncomfortable. 482 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:54,560 Speaker 2: And honestly, that also takes us right back to some 483 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 2: of the divisions that we saw in the ultimate result 484 00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:01,479 Speaker 2: within Brexit also in how for such Obviously, when you 485 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 2: ask lots of different people why they voted for Brexit, 486 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 2: there were different reasons amongst different cohorts, but certainly amongst 487 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:12,320 Speaker 2: a specific cohort, migration and the free flow of workers 488 00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,560 Speaker 2: was the major reason for voting for the sentiments from 489 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:19,680 Speaker 2: the EU. So I think how the topic of migration 490 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:24,280 Speaker 2: enters UK politics as well as the politics of each 491 00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:28,399 Speaker 2: party is something we've been contending with for years now. 492 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,520 Speaker 1: There's been tenny billion of personal tax cuts announced and 493 00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 1: it doesn't seem to have shifted the dial in the 494 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:38,440 Speaker 1: polling in the United Kingdom. What are your reflections on that. 495 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good question, and actually I think there's 496 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 2: commonalities behind the question that we spoke about earlier with 497 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,359 Speaker 2: regards to why Biden it's polling better in the US, 498 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:54,960 Speaker 2: and I think it's the role of inflation within the 499 00:27:55,080 --> 00:28:02,680 Speaker 2: general experience of households, because by some metrics, households things 500 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 2: look great. We've got almost record low unemployment in the West, 501 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:11,640 Speaker 2: pretty very low unemployment by historical standards here also, and 502 00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:16,720 Speaker 2: we've had these tax cuts. But I can't think of 503 00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,920 Speaker 2: any of my friends or any of my circles, and 504 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 2: certainly not in the wider society that feels they've been 505 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,120 Speaker 2: an awful lot better off over the last year, because 506 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 2: watching your energy bill rise six dayfold was utterly terrifying, 507 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 2: and not knowing if food prices were ever going to 508 00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 2: come down. So I think inflation has been terribly damaging 509 00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:39,000 Speaker 2: to real incomes across the West, but very much so here, 510 00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,880 Speaker 2: And I just think that has completely dwarfed any tinkering 511 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 2: that we've had on the tax front. Now as we 512 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:50,400 Speaker 2: go through the course of the year, change because headline 513 00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:53,680 Speaker 2: inflation is now coming down quite quickly, those pressures are 514 00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 2: easy while wage grade is still relatively elevated, so it 515 00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 2: might be and we're seeing consumer confidence, right, so you 516 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:03,200 Speaker 2: might see some of those more feel good effects, and 517 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 2: then people start to think, well, actually, with that tax cart, 518 00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,320 Speaker 2: I'm starting to feel a bit better about life, But 519 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 2: I'm not really surprised that so far nobody is feeling 520 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,280 Speaker 2: particularly perky about their monthly cash flow. 521 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 3: It's funny because I wanted to take things onto inflation 522 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,240 Speaker 3: because I was conscious. I was smiling to myself when 523 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 3: Adrian was suggesting that it was a new thing to 524 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:25,120 Speaker 3: have politics so volatile, and of course you, Karen, were 525 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 3: advising the Chancellor, just the then Chancellor Philip Hammond in 526 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,200 Speaker 3: the wake of the Brexit result, and obviously facing quite 527 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,240 Speaker 3: a lot of political volatility at that point while you're 528 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,360 Speaker 3: sitting in the Treasury. But one thing that you weren't 529 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:39,000 Speaker 3: facing then was inflation. And it does feel to me 530 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 3: that it's something that economists have underestimated and certainly politicians, 531 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 3: I think initially underestimated how much it gets under people's skin. 532 00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 3: If you just look at the numbers, the Prime Minister 533 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:53,680 Speaker 3: is probably going to go to the polls after prices 534 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:57,600 Speaker 3: will have risen by twenty percent over the Parliament and 535 00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 3: if that's actually all that voters care about, and it's 536 00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:02,600 Speaker 3: certainly been a big factor in the sort of lowest 537 00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:06,520 Speaker 3: house rise in real household dispposable income per head, then 538 00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,680 Speaker 3: he's sunk. In theory, it's not his fault at all. 539 00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:10,560 Speaker 3: It was all handed over to the Independent Bank of 540 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:12,320 Speaker 3: England and we thought that was a great decision, But 541 00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:15,200 Speaker 3: now actually politicians around the world are potentially carrying the 542 00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,560 Speaker 3: can for the decisions of entirely independent technocrats. 543 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:25,000 Speaker 2: I certainly think the whole community central banks economists had 544 00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:28,680 Speaker 2: a little bit too much confidence that by merely making 545 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:32,360 Speaker 2: central banks independent rulers over the inflation process, that we 546 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:36,960 Speaker 2: had necessarily killed inflation. And I think what we've really 547 00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 2: learned over the last few years is two things. One, 548 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:46,360 Speaker 2: we get cost shocks, and they originate from parts of 549 00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 2: the world that you do not foresee where events are 550 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,720 Speaker 2: going to happen. So are clearly Russia invading Ukraine and 551 00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,840 Speaker 2: the energy turmoil that created we had this almighty posh 552 00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,360 Speaker 2: shock at the economy. But then I think the other 553 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 2: degree of complacency is how the labor market would then 554 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:07,680 Speaker 2: behave And the fact and the reason I think a 555 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,880 Speaker 2: lot of the central banking community were perhaps slow to 556 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,120 Speaker 2: realize the scale of the problem was it was assumed 557 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:17,000 Speaker 2: that workers wouldn't ask for more money, they would merely 558 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:20,760 Speaker 2: accept the damage to their living standards accepted as a 559 00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 2: one off piece of bad luck, and carry on and 560 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:29,320 Speaker 2: quite understandably, workers didn't behave in that way because carry on. 561 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:30,640 Speaker 3: Being quite high is a problem. 562 00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 2: They didn't go down, no, exactly, and workers wanted to 563 00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 2: reinstate their real purchasing power. And we had very low unemployment, 564 00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,960 Speaker 2: which again was an aspect of supply. It surprise perhaps 565 00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 2: in how things played out over the last couple of years, 566 00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 2: and so with that security of work, workers did go 567 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:50,960 Speaker 2: and ask for more money, and therefore that's when we 568 00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:54,360 Speaker 2: got their second round. Effects is economists like to call it, 569 00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:56,640 Speaker 2: where you know, workers ask for a bit more pay, 570 00:31:56,960 --> 00:32:00,400 Speaker 2: that inflation shop broadens out through the economy, And honestly, 571 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:04,240 Speaker 2: it's still there, it's still persistent, and we aren't entirely 572 00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:07,320 Speaker 2: clear whether it's behind us just yet. So yes, I 573 00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,240 Speaker 2: think inflation is a huge part of the story, a 574 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:14,520 Speaker 2: huge headwind to politicians, and it's not going to be 575 00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:16,200 Speaker 2: a meaningful tailwind anytime. 576 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:20,280 Speaker 4: See, Adrian, I just wanted to defend myself slightly by 577 00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:22,160 Speaker 4: saying that when I was talking about sort of the 578 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:26,000 Speaker 4: golden age when economists were in charge, I meant two 579 00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:29,120 Speaker 4: thousand and eight or up until the referendum, not certainly, 580 00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,560 Speaker 4: But I need to go back to the theme of 581 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:35,080 Speaker 4: politics being slightly more important than it was before two 582 00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:37,920 Speaker 4: thousand and eight or twenty sixteen. It seems that the 583 00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,040 Speaker 4: biggest things that are going on now seem to be 584 00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 4: not economics but political events. The invasion of Ukraine, which 585 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:50,200 Speaker 4: had no possible sort of economic justification, the possibility of 586 00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:54,640 Speaker 4: an invasion of Taiwan, which restructuring our whole semiconductor and 587 00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,600 Speaker 4: so again that's something that has no possible economic justification. 588 00:32:57,960 --> 00:32:59,960 Speaker 4: And just the figure of Trump. If Trump comes in 589 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,760 Speaker 4: and he could do a number of things, not least 590 00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:06,440 Speaker 4: some Rapussure wants, some deal with Putin or some crazy 591 00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:10,040 Speaker 4: actor in the Middle East, which could just completely reconfigure 592 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,720 Speaker 4: all of our calculations. Don't We live in a world 593 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:16,880 Speaker 4: in which the prognostic power of economists is diminishing. 594 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,040 Speaker 1: But it's they may be political events, but they become economical. 595 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:21,600 Speaker 4: No, I mean, where do they come from? They don't 596 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 4: They're not driven by economic calculations. 597 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,520 Speaker 2: I'm going to defend I'm going to defend us here. Actually, 598 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,400 Speaker 2: so I'm going to say the economic still really matters. 599 00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,480 Speaker 2: So Russia, with all the benefit of hindsight, we look 600 00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 2: back now and saw that Russia was getting itself into 601 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:44,920 Speaker 2: a situation of economic independence such that it could make 602 00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:50,280 Speaker 2: a political decision to sever its relationship with the West 603 00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:55,120 Speaker 2: in a way that would not decimate its economy. And 604 00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:59,880 Speaker 2: it had Russia's GDP and Russian activity because it's still 605 00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,200 Speaker 2: reducing oil, it's just sending it to other parts of 606 00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:05,479 Speaker 2: the world, and it's still producing commodities and sending them 607 00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,440 Speaker 2: to other parts of the world. So I still believe 608 00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:12,480 Speaker 2: that decision made in Russia was founded a political decision 609 00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:18,200 Speaker 2: founded in the knowledge that economically it would not be devastating, 610 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,200 Speaker 2: and then the ones that you highlight could happen. I 611 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,799 Speaker 2: still think it's the economics that mean the worst case 612 00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:26,960 Speaker 2: scenario won't happen. So I think China is. 613 00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,239 Speaker 4: Just going to say, do you think China could make 614 00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:32,760 Speaker 4: the same calculation that Russia's made, because it is certainly 615 00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:34,880 Speaker 4: desevering itself from a lot of the world economy. 616 00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:36,800 Speaker 1: It says, no, why not, Karen. 617 00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,879 Speaker 2: Whether it chooses to get itself into Russia's position over 618 00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:44,440 Speaker 2: the next twenty years, I don't know. But today the 619 00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:48,480 Speaker 2: US is still the biggest importer of Chinese goods, and 620 00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:52,600 Speaker 2: China has a serious domestic demand problem right now, they 621 00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:58,120 Speaker 2: are resorting back to export demand to fuel their growth. Therefore, 622 00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,720 Speaker 2: they need anyone else in the world to be buying 623 00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:03,040 Speaker 2: their goods until they can get their domestic engine going. 624 00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,040 Speaker 2: And while that is still the case, they need to 625 00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:08,800 Speaker 2: stay friends with their biggest consumers, which are in the West. 626 00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,279 Speaker 2: So right now here in today, with the economics as 627 00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:14,959 Speaker 2: they are, I think it's a small probability risk. 628 00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:18,799 Speaker 1: So the not so dismal science from you, Karen, can 629 00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,839 Speaker 1: you just do some forecasting perhaps, which is people are 630 00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:25,680 Speaker 1: saying we'll have inflation at two percent possibly then over 631 00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:27,840 Speaker 1: the summer some people are predicting it could go to 632 00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,279 Speaker 1: one percent. Do you think it starts to come up 633 00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,279 Speaker 1: in the autumn and what are the consequences of that 634 00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:33,080 Speaker 1: if it does. 635 00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:37,279 Speaker 2: Yes, I think it will dip. Oil is edging back 636 00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:40,440 Speaker 2: up that gas prices, which are a bigger chunk in 637 00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:45,040 Speaker 2: the CPI basket. They because of gas prices come down 638 00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:48,239 Speaker 2: in April. That should take us just a little bit 639 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:52,000 Speaker 2: sub two. In the summer we should touch a load 640 00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 2: two number. However, that probably won't last terribly long. And 641 00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:58,920 Speaker 2: I do think by the end of the year and 642 00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:02,880 Speaker 2: the bank can also in thereforecast we are back on 643 00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,040 Speaker 2: an up trend as long as it's modest and it's 644 00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:09,040 Speaker 2: real wages that matter. So I think part of the 645 00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,520 Speaker 2: reason it's not going to two and through two and 646 00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:13,840 Speaker 2: back to the low inflation that we knew before is 647 00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,759 Speaker 2: because wage growth is still running somewhere between four and 648 00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:20,799 Speaker 2: six percent. Of data quality issues at the moment, but 649 00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:24,040 Speaker 2: it's still in that kind of vicinity. I think we 650 00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:28,200 Speaker 2: will still be in positive real wage territory through the 651 00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:30,560 Speaker 2: remainder of the year. I think the consumer is going 652 00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,600 Speaker 2: to be in pretty decent positive real wage territory, not 653 00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:37,520 Speaker 2: compensating for the last two years, but at least that 654 00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:39,879 Speaker 2: pressure feeling better throughout the course of the year. 655 00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:45,000 Speaker 3: We cited recently some research, some academic research that finds 656 00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:47,840 Speaker 3: part of the problem with inflation is even where wages 657 00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:51,400 Speaker 3: have kept pace, people adamantly to believe that they have 658 00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,680 Speaker 3: not kept pace, and there's a sort of as Karen's 659 00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,359 Speaker 3: been saying, there's a kind of abiding hit. In fact, 660 00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:00,520 Speaker 3: if we see wages going faster than inflation, that will 661 00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:03,160 Speaker 3: potentially be an issue for the Bank of England, might 662 00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:06,279 Speaker 3: slow the pace of rate cuts and yet still not 663 00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:10,239 Speaker 3: actually deliver much benefit in terms of how people feel 664 00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:12,479 Speaker 3: I can certainly say as a form of BBC Economics editor, 665 00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,279 Speaker 3: who used to go to supermarkets on day where you 666 00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:18,000 Speaker 3: know the price of something had plunged, and you're desperate 667 00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,440 Speaker 3: to find one person who's willing to admit that anything's 668 00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,120 Speaker 3: got cheaper, because everybody always feels that life's getting more 669 00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:26,080 Speaker 3: expensive regardless of what the numbers say, And I would 670 00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:28,200 Speaker 3: very quickly give up trying to find someone who would 671 00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:30,920 Speaker 3: back up what the data appear to be saying. But 672 00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,080 Speaker 3: I think that's particularly true when it comes to real wages. 673 00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:34,680 Speaker 3: People don't necessarily feel better off. 674 00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,080 Speaker 2: It's sort of it's the inflation of fun and the 675 00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:41,960 Speaker 2: inflation of not fun, the inflation of everything that's not fun, 676 00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:45,360 Speaker 2: energy and food and all of the stuff that we 677 00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:47,120 Speaker 2: have to buy and not because we want to buy 678 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,520 Speaker 2: because it's fun. That is what's risen so much. It's 679 00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:55,040 Speaker 2: eating into our income, so that eases our it still 680 00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,400 Speaker 2: doesn't feel fun, because it's. 681 00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,160 Speaker 3: A very good point, the amount that we're willing to 682 00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:01,920 Speaker 3: spend on tailor swift tickets or god knows what it is. 683 00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:06,560 Speaker 3: We know all non complains as much about soaring concert 684 00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:08,319 Speaker 3: tickets because they're a bit more fun that is a 685 00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:09,319 Speaker 3: very good way of looking at. 686 00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:12,839 Speaker 1: So we'll end on. Taylor Swift, thank you very much 687 00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:13,719 Speaker 1: for joining us. 688 00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:15,880 Speaker 2: Karen Ward, thank you for having me. 689 00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:22,520 Speaker 1: So thanks for listening to this week's Vota Nomics from Bloomberg. 690 00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:26,520 Speaker 1: This episode was hosted by me Alecra Stratton, Adrian Wildridge, 691 00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:30,040 Speaker 1: and Stephanie Flanders in Dubai. It was produced by Samasadi 692 00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:33,920 Speaker 1: with help from Sarah Livesey, Chris Martlou and Julia Mann's. 693 00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:38,680 Speaker 1: Editorial direction from Victoria Wakeley. Sound designed by Blake Maples. 694 00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:43,399 Speaker 1: Brendan Francis Newmanham is our executive producer, Sage Bauman, Head 695 00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,560 Speaker 1: of Podcasts, and special thanks to our guest Karen Ward. 696 00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:51,239 Speaker 1: Please subscribe, rate, and review wherever you listen to your podcasts.