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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'mna just mop that action as all right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go from throwing in so spec I'm sitting

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Speaker 3: up to cash touchtop.

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Speaker 4: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible being bank, small bank, I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 1: This is the ultimate kabine. You want to pass it.

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Speaker 4: And we are underway. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 4: We made it.

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Speaker 3: Twenty twenty four NFL season is here. In this episode,

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Speaker 3: we are doing some best Bets NFL Best Bets Week

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Speaker 3: one from the one and only Brandon Anderson. Brendan Glaschen

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Speaker 3: his co pilot, steering him in the right direction, not

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Speaker 3: necessarily with the picks, but so Brandon can fit as

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Speaker 3: many picks as possible in the next thirty minutes.

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Speaker 4: The structure is very simple as it can get.

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Speaker 3: Each week, Brandon and I will come together and Brandon

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Speaker 3: Anderson will bring his best bets for the upcoming NFL slate.

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Speaker 3: We record on Thursday afternoons, so we're not going to

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Speaker 3: include the Thursday night game special week in week one

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Speaker 3: of course, with the game on Friday, game Monday.

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Speaker 4: Et cetera.

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Speaker 3: Last season, the episode's record was one eight ninety three,

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Speaker 3: one eight two, one ninety three wins losses. That includes

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Speaker 3: Brandon's regular season look aheads, which we will have a

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Speaker 3: look ahead pick on this particular episode, we'll have that again.

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Speaker 3: We'll also keep track of the record throughout the season.

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Speaker 3: And the way you want to look for the how

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Speaker 3: we're doing is to go to Brandon Anderson's Action Network

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Speaker 3: at page So follow Brandon Anderson there and the award

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Speaker 3: winning Action Network out will track his picks. Will also

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Speaker 3: have links to the articles in which he will document

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Speaker 3: his picks in all of his write ups, so on

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Speaker 3: and so forth. So those of you that have tuned

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Speaker 3: in to this episode in the past, welcome back.

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Speaker 4: And uh, Brandan and Brandon. How could that get confusing?

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Speaker 4: So Brandon's given the picks. Brandon's setting him up. So

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Speaker 4: we're going to start Brandon with four best bets. Pick

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Speaker 4: number one for week one. What do you got? This

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Speaker 4: is your best bet?

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Speaker 1: You know, I gotta do it, Brandon Panthers Island Panthers

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Speaker 1: plus four at the Saints. That we have to start

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Speaker 1: in the NFC South for the year. It's Christmas, the

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Speaker 1: games are back. Christmas came early on this one. You

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Speaker 1: already know we're betting Panthers Island. We're fading Dennis Allen.

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Speaker 1: We're fading Derek Carr as favorites. You have to do

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Speaker 1: it in week one. Dennis Allen as a favorite eight

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Speaker 1: and sixteen against the spread thirty percent ats as a

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Speaker 1: division favorite thirty three percent ATS. In September, there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a lot of talk about coaching record early. That's

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Speaker 1: where I think there's a big edge or non edge

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Speaker 1: in Dennis Allen's case. Derek Carr as a favorite thirty

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Speaker 1: six percent yes for his career. For a career, that's terrible.

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Speaker 1: If you go three or more point favorite, he goes

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Speaker 1: below thirty percent against the spread. Last nineteen games, Derek

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Speaker 1: Carr has been a field goal favorite and Morey has

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Speaker 1: covered four times out of nineteen. He has lost nine

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Speaker 1: out of nineteen out right, So we are in on

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Speaker 1: the Panthers. I'm out on the Saints. Their bottom three

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Speaker 1: coaching staff. It's a new offensive coordinator for Derek Carr

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Speaker 1: that has not gone well from the past, bottom three

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Speaker 1: offensive line. Dave Kanalis the new coach in Carolina. It's

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Speaker 1: a new coach thing, but boy, he knows his defense.

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Speaker 1: They've been watching, they've been playing the last couple of

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Speaker 1: years from Tampa. Panthers are going to have an improved

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Speaker 1: O line, improved receivers hopefully hopefully for this bet, and

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Speaker 1: improve Bryce Young. A couple more numbers for you. Road

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Speaker 1: underdogs that did not make the playoffs last season since

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Speaker 1: twenty eleven sixty five percent against the spread. That's a

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Speaker 1: Panthers number. And Division underdogs since twenty ten in Week

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Speaker 1: one sixty seven percent against the spread. Both of those

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Speaker 1: are Week one no years with the losing record for

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Speaker 1: that one. So get your bet on Panthers Island in

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Speaker 1: the futures if you haven't yet. Twelve to one on

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Speaker 1: the Division. I think, Brandon, we're going to be leading

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Speaker 1: the division on Monday. Want to know against the rest

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Speaker 1: of the field. Panthers plus four play the money line

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Speaker 1: if you like plus one seventy five.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Dave canal Is is slot riding on this guy from

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Speaker 3: our action never mind Brandon, but the entire company.

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Speaker 4: It feels like. Listen to Chris raybon a.

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Speaker 3: Roundtable earlier this week NFL Roundtable or Newest Episode. He

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Speaker 3: maps out how the Panthers are going to lead wire

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Speaker 3: to wire against the Saints.

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Speaker 4: That is his bold prediction for week one. Okay, so

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Speaker 4: you said it.

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Speaker 3: You think the Panthers are going to be a top

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Speaker 3: the NFC South after one week. That bodes well and

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Speaker 3: transitions well into your second best bet.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, stay with the NFC South. You know I love

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Speaker 1: to hate this division. I'm not going to do the

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Speaker 1: side here. Give me the Steelers Falcons under forty two

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Speaker 1: and a half's my favorite total of the week. I'm

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Speaker 1: not play aside here. I'm mad we got this matchup. Brandon.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to fade both of these teams. I think

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Speaker 1: they're both over right in the market. They're both teams.

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Speaker 1: I'm under both teams. I'm looking to miss the playoffs

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Speaker 1: with Atlanta. You got Kirk Cousins. It's new offense, new teammates',

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Speaker 1: new coaching staff, and Kirk has even played yet. He

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Speaker 1: tore his achilles and didn't play in the preseason. We

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Speaker 1: have no idea how ready is it's the achilles on

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Speaker 1: his plant foot. It's much more recent than Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 1: This is not a situation I feel good about. And

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Speaker 1: then we have Russell Wilson, who just an hour ago

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Speaker 1: as a recording has calf tightness. We don't know what

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Speaker 1: he's gonna look like. He's in a new offense. It's

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Speaker 1: Arthur Smith's offense, which I don't think fits him at all.

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Speaker 1: He can't attack the middle of the field. I don't

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Speaker 1: know how that's gonna be. We might get some justin

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Speaker 1: fields in this game. I don't think we're gonna lots

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Speaker 1: of scoring here. The Steelers offensive line is already missing

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Speaker 1: their left guards. Tomalow looks like they're missing their left tackle. Fatana,

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Speaker 1: the first round pick, may not be ready. So that's

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Speaker 1: not great, especially considering you've got either quarterback for the

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Speaker 1: seats holds the ball way too long. That's not going

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Speaker 1: to go well, and they're going to run the ball.

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Speaker 1: That's what they want to go under Arthur Smith. For

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Speaker 1: the Falcons, run defense was actually the strength of the

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Speaker 1: defense last year. So I don't see how this goes

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Speaker 1: well either direction. Steelers defense, we know is by far

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Speaker 1: the best unit on the field of what we've got

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Speaker 1: so far. So here's the combo. Here's the numbers that

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Speaker 1: I like here. Mike Tomlin Road unders eighty fifty six

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Speaker 1: and one lifetime fifty nine percent. He's the most profitable

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Speaker 1: coach road unders. In our system at bet Labs, if

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Speaker 1: you go just the first ten games of the season

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Speaker 1: for the Steelers, sixty seven percent to the under Mike

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Speaker 1: Tomlin on the road. He's only gone over four of

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Speaker 1: the last twenty five road games for the Steelers, so

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Speaker 1: it's a great spot for him. And then here's what

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Speaker 1: I love Russell Wilson. Not in those numbers, he's new

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson road unders fifty eight percent. He's the second

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Speaker 1: most profitable quarterback in the league behind guys who Big

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Speaker 1: Ben the guy getting Tomlin all the road unders. This

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Speaker 1: is a marriage made in heaven for under batters. I

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Speaker 1: don't think this is a raw rass spot. I'm throwing

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Speaker 1: out the russ underdog trens. I don't know who's going

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Speaker 1: to win the game. I think it's gonna be ugly

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Speaker 1: and not a lot of points. Give me the under

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Speaker 1: forty two and a half.

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Speaker 4: Somebody got to be all in for everybody to be

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Speaker 4: all in. Arthur smith revenge game, and I think nailed

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Speaker 4: it there.

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Speaker 3: Despite some of the injuries at offensive line, two offensive

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Speaker 3: lines that rank in the top ten per PFF. They

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Speaker 3: know how to scheme it up and two new quarterback situations.

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Speaker 3: The Steelers were the second to last team to name

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Speaker 3: a starter.

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Speaker 4: New England was last.

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Speaker 3: There could be some turbulence there and Kirk Cousins, as

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Speaker 3: we know, coming off the Achilles, it's a slow build

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Speaker 3: for Atlanta, even though I think Atlanta is going to

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Speaker 3: be pretty good with a new staff in town.

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Speaker 4: But it's just week one, so it's another way of

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Speaker 4: fading the NFC South, all right. This next one is

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Speaker 4: a player prop from Brandon.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how long we're talking about this guy

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Speaker 3: at quarterback for the foreseeable future in a Giant's uniform,

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Speaker 3: but it has to do with Daniel Jones' pick number three.

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Speaker 1: It is Daniel Jones. Give me the over on the

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Speaker 1: one thing he does right, run the football. Give me

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Speaker 1: over twenty six and a half rushing yards, and then

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Speaker 1: I'll play the escalator fifty yards or better plus four

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Speaker 1: to twenty five. So here's the case Vikings Giants to

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Speaker 1: start the season, Brennan. That gives me nightmares. I'm a

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Speaker 1: Vikings fan. I don't need Vikings Giants in my life.

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Speaker 1: I just watched this end of my season two years ago.

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Speaker 1: Daniel Jones run all over my guys seventeen carries for

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Speaker 1: seventy eight yards. It was clearly the strategy for that game.

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Speaker 1: Run run, runs, scramble, scramble past all the pressure. That's

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Speaker 1: a thing that happens. Let alone to two thousand and

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Speaker 1: one NFC Championship Game forty one nothing Giants Vikings. One

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Speaker 1: of the worst days of my life as a Vikings fan,

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Speaker 1: and we got plenty. I think both offensive Lions are

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Speaker 1: in big trouble this game, and the Vikings are in trouble.

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Speaker 1: But the Giants offensive line is rough like that is

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Speaker 1: a bottom five probably offensive line. Andrew Thomas's the rest PSF. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's very bad. And we know Brian Flores is going

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Speaker 1: to bring the pressure, so that means our guy, Daniel Jones,

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Speaker 1: he's gonna have to scramble. He's not gonna have a

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Speaker 1: lot of time back there. I know that there's been

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Speaker 1: a lot of talk about they wanted to hang in

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Speaker 1: and throw it down the field. Not this game. It's

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Speaker 1: not gonna happen. And don't forget Brian Dables calling the

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Speaker 1: plays again. And I think Brian Dable is going to

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Speaker 1: be good for Daniel Jones because he's the one who's

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Speaker 1: good from the first place. He's the one who said, hey, look,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you're really quarterback man, but I

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Speaker 1: do know you can run the football, so I have

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Speaker 1: to run the football. And I think actually having Daniel

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Speaker 1: Jones run the ball is good for the Giants because

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Speaker 1: we know that they may not necessarily want him starting

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Speaker 1: all season long. So why not just kind of like

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Speaker 1: pick up a couple little minor injuries along the way

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Speaker 1: and give us Yeah, why not? Why not? We know

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Speaker 1: this is going to end, so why not make it

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Speaker 1: end under Brian Dable these last year is Daniel Jones

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Speaker 1: is at forty three point one yards a game, so

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Speaker 1: this line is low. Now, of course he's coming off

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Speaker 1: with Tory acl I'll get to that in a second,

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Speaker 1: but twenty one full starts these last two years, he's

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Speaker 1: at least twenty yards in eighteen of the twenty one,

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Speaker 1: so that's the floor. Basically, we only need seven more

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Speaker 1: yards after that to hit the over he has had

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Speaker 1: with Brian Dable. Two years ago he had twenty seven

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Speaker 1: runs of ten yards or more. So again, you get

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Speaker 1: one of those ripped off somewhere in the game, one

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Speaker 1: long scramble. We're already almost halfway there. Against Minnesota in

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Speaker 1: that playoff game, he did that four times. That was

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Speaker 1: a strategy for them. I expected here again, fifty or

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Speaker 1: more rushing yards eight of those games, thirty eight percent

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Speaker 1: of the time. We're playing plus four twenty five to

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Speaker 1: get to fifty. That's two x. That's nineteen percent implied.

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Speaker 1: So we're gonna double the value there. Now he is

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Speaker 1: coming out to Tory ACL. He played one half in

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Speaker 1: the preseason. He ran once. I don't love that, but

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Speaker 1: he got twelve yards. That's still as basically the line

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Speaker 1: we're playing. That's a twenty four yard pace for the game,

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Speaker 1: and that's preseason where you're not really trying that much.

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Speaker 1: Like look, guys tear their acls and play. Now, Daniel

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Speaker 1: Jones is a running back. Daniel Jones is going to

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Speaker 1: run the football. I think the injury is not why

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Speaker 1: we shouldn't play. I think the injury is why we

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Speaker 1: should play. It's buying us some value on the line.

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Speaker 1: So this is the one thing that Dable's gonna use.

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Speaker 1: Daniel Jones for over twenty six and a half rushing

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Speaker 1: yards and then fifty plus plus four twenty five a

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Speaker 1: bit of a spring gole.

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Speaker 4: No Saquon either. There's no Saquon Barkley.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Daniel Jones coming off the injury against the Vikings

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Speaker 3: over twenty six and a half, escalator fifty plus for

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Speaker 3: plus four to twenty five. Okay, your final four out

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Speaker 3: of four here, best bet.

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Speaker 4: That we have a couple more things you want to

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Speaker 4: get to.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take an escalator here. We just had one.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a full escalator on the Seattle Seahawks

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Speaker 1: against the Denver Brown because I'm playing the spread here.

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Speaker 1: I'll lay out the case and then get to how

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Speaker 1: I'm playing the escalator. So the line is at minus six.

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Speaker 1: I don't like that. I wanted this to just be

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Speaker 1: a Seattle pick. I want to just play the Seahawks.

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Speaker 1: So the line started at four and a half. It's

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Speaker 1: been rising. We missed the best of it if you

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Speaker 1: haven't played yet, so I don't think you can play

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Speaker 1: the sixth teamore. I don't love that, but I still

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Speaker 1: make this better than touchdown and sometimes Brandon. The alternate

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Speaker 1: lines don't adjust as that line moves as well, so

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Speaker 1: something you can still hit the alternates. So this is

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Speaker 1: a preseason read for me. We talked a lot about Seattle.

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Speaker 1: You know, I love this team. I think Seattle is

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Speaker 1: in contention for the one seat in the NFC. I

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Speaker 1: think Denver is in contingent for the number one pick

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. So these are teams I have on

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Speaker 1: the opposite do out of the spectrum. I love Mike

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Speaker 1: McDonald and he's going to unleash this defense. He's gonna

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Speaker 1: have all those weapons attacking, especially in this game. That's

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Speaker 1: a good setup. I love Ryan Grubb, the offensive coordinator

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Speaker 1: for Seattle. I think they're gonna have a lot of

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Speaker 1: great deep balls passing attack. I think that sets up well.

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Speaker 1: Patrick's certain can only cover one dude, and they've got

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Speaker 1: three good receivers there. Bow Knicks makes his road debut,

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Speaker 1: rookie road debut in Seattle, where I think they have

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Speaker 1: one of the few true home field advantages still that

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Speaker 1: twelfth man, the home crowd. That is a loud, tough place.

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Speaker 1: I think Bownicks is going to struggle against all that

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Speaker 1: Mike McDonald pressure, against that defense. They're gonna leash at them.

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Speaker 1: Denver last year had five double digit losses for those

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Speaker 1: on the road, including by twenty five and of course

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Speaker 1: by fifty in that terrible Dolphins game for them. So

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Speaker 1: here's how this sets up for us. I'm gonna give

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Speaker 1: you a number, and then how we're gonna play the escalator.

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Speaker 1: Last fifteen years, Week one home favorites who won the game,

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Speaker 1: they'll won by an average of ten point eight points.

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Speaker 1: So I'm skipping the minus six I don't need it

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Speaker 1: in my life. We're going straight to minus nine and

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Speaker 1: a half plus one fifty. That's the first part of

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Speaker 1: our bet. And then thirty out of those ninety five

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Speaker 1: teams won by at least two touchdowns fourteen or more,

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Speaker 1: so it give me minus thirteen and a half plus

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Speaker 1: two fifty. And then over that same timeframe Week one

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Speaker 1: home favorites non conference games, those teams won by twenty

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Speaker 1: or more thirty one percent of the time. I'm over

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Speaker 1: a third of the time. We get some blowouts in

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Speaker 1: week one. If you like aside, you should bet aggressively,

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Speaker 1: so minus nineteen and a half plus five hundred. So

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Speaker 1: playing the escalator. Let me just give a word here.

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Speaker 1: I like to call an escalator not a ladder. On

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Speaker 1: a ladder, the rungs are equally far apart. You're doing

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Speaker 1: the same work to get to each one. An escalator

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Speaker 1: does the work for you, and that is the point.

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Speaker 1: Each time you made one step, you were already on

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Speaker 1: your way to the next one here And I think

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Speaker 1: this is a spot where you got a rookie quarterback

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Speaker 1: on the road and it could get rough and get

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Speaker 1: away from him, and it could really get ugly late

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Speaker 1: in the game. So how's it work? You split your

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Speaker 1: one unit something like point six units on the minus

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Speaker 1: nine and a half plus one fifty, a quarter of

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Speaker 1: unit minus thirteen and a half plus two to fifty,

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Speaker 1: the final point fifteen unit on the minus nineteen and

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Speaker 1: a half plus five hundred. It's a lot of numbers.

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Speaker 1: Check the app. I'll spell it out there for you.

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Speaker 1: But I'm banking on a big Seattle win in week one.

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Speaker 3: Okay, very good. John Payton's got bot Nicks as a

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Speaker 3: starting quarterback. Seahawks with their new staff under Mike McDonald

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Speaker 3: and Ryan Grubb is their offensive coordinator. The team that

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Speaker 3: you actually like to make the playoffs as well. So

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Speaker 3: you're high on the Seahawks. Going back to our Exotics

312
00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:01,440
Speaker 3: pod that we did with Joe Gallant, check that out

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00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,000
Speaker 3: as well, if you haven't done so already. If you

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Speaker 3: are looking for the UFC podcast we do every Friday.

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00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:11,640
Speaker 3: Now that NFL has begun, Shanzarello and Billy Ward, they

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00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:15,320
Speaker 3: have moved that show over to the Action Network YouTube channel,

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00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,400
Speaker 3: so you can check those guys out there. This is

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Speaker 3: our new Friday release with the best bets each and

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Speaker 3: or follow the link in this episode's description. Okay, so

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Speaker 3: those are the best bets from Brandon. Next up, we're

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00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,000
Speaker 3: gonna do a lightning round. Brandon's gonna give out three

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Speaker 3: picks rapid fire. Go come to see the lightning round.

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Speaker 1: These are all bets Brandon. So these are all recommendations,

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00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:26,359
Speaker 1: They're all plays for me. We're just going fasterest we

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Speaker 1: can get more of them in so let's start Friday night.

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Speaker 1: We get a Friday night game. I have to bet it.

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Speaker 1: Of course we're watching and betting it. Can't skive the

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Speaker 1: first game of the schedule. Give me the Green Bay Packers

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Speaker 1: plus two and a half against the Eagles in Brazil.

359
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Speaker 1: The Packers' offense, I think is the best unit on

360
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Speaker 1: the field. They have continuity, they know what they're doing.

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Speaker 1: They're the one unit that does not have a new coordinator.

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00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:52,719
Speaker 1: The Philadelphia's defense was really bad last season, and it

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00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,720
Speaker 1: probably is gonna get better under Big Fangio, but that

364
00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,199
Speaker 1: often takes time. With Panjo, we've seen that at multiple

365
00:17:58,240 --> 00:17:59,880
Speaker 1: stops to the other side of the ball. I don't

366
00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,160
Speaker 1: know Eagles offense, Packers defense. There's a lot of unknowns

367
00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:06,080
Speaker 1: on that whole picture there. I know I like Jordan Love.

368
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:07,720
Speaker 1: I know I like Jordan Love and the way he

369
00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:10,360
Speaker 1: played down the season. I think the Eagles will be

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00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,480
Speaker 1: better at the end of the season. Right now, they're

371
00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,920
Speaker 1: adjusting to a new offensive line post Jason Kelsey. How

372
00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:19,359
Speaker 1: the coverages work, who's calling it out, how's the tush

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00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:22,400
Speaker 1: push work. We don't know yet. New offensive coordinator, new

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Speaker 1: defensive coordinator. I like, what's cooking, but I think it's

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Speaker 1: gonna take some time to get there. I like that

376
00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:29,840
Speaker 1: Green Bay is what they are right now, especially on offense.

377
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Speaker 1: S Matt Lafler sixty nine percent ats as an underdog

378
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:35,760
Speaker 1: thirteen and two against the spread first three weeks of

379
00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,679
Speaker 1: the season. He's been great there. Jalen Hurts as a

380
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 1: favorite away from home six fourteen and one against the spread.

381
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Speaker 1: So Packers plus two and a half, obviously, if you

382
00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:48,240
Speaker 1: can get the three, I don't know we're gonna get there.

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Speaker 1: I do prefer the spread to the money line. That

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00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:54,920
Speaker 1: means you move on to the lightning round fast forward

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Speaker 1: to the last game of the weekend money at football.

386
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Speaker 1: I'm gonna do this one quickly because Brandon, we're gonna

387
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 1: talk about this that length on Sunday night when we're

388
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,440
Speaker 1: back together. But I love the Jets. Jets plus four

389
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:06,159
Speaker 1: and a half. It's one of my favorite sides of

390
00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,680
Speaker 1: the week. I think the line could arise a touch.

391
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:10,800
Speaker 1: Trent Williams and Brandon and Ayuk look like they're back.

392
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:13,720
Speaker 1: Casana Reddick may be out, so the line could maybe

393
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 1: move that way. You can wait if you want. We know.

394
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Speaker 1: I love the Jets. I think it is the best

395
00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,720
Speaker 1: roster in football when healthy. They're healthy now they're only

396
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:24,840
Speaker 1: gonna get less healthy. So if you like the Jets,

397
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,240
Speaker 1: you got to play now before the injuries start to come.

398
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,800
Speaker 1: I know Aaron Rodgers loves to play San Francisco, the

399
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 1: team that didn't take him number one. There's still time

400
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,639
Speaker 1: to get that MVP Rogers ticket in twenty five to one.

401
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 1: You know that is my favorite Awards play of the year.

402
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,400
Speaker 1: The Jets are another one of those road playoff teams

403
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:44,199
Speaker 1: that didn't make the playoffs. We had that stat for

404
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,760
Speaker 1: the Panthers and a couple more stats for your Kyle

405
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 1: Shanahan Week one, two and five against the spread, slow

406
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 1: starts in San Francisco, and you know the Super Bowl

407
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:57,560
Speaker 1: loser's stat this century five and nineteen against the spread

408
00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,680
Speaker 1: in week one. That hangover hits you hard, and we've

409
00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:03,320
Speaker 1: already seen. We don't know what's coming with Trent Williams.

410
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:05,600
Speaker 1: We don't know how much McCaffrey will be ready or

411
00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 1: I you and let me just tell you now. We'll

412
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,439
Speaker 1: talk more Sunday. Get this bet in the moment you

413
00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,119
Speaker 1: hear Trent Williams is out if that happens, because we

414
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:16,520
Speaker 1: want it for sure then, and that line will go

415
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:20,120
Speaker 1: the wrong direction. So good at lightning rounds. Last thing,

416
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 1: the lightning round is one pick. That's actually two picks.

417
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 1: I wanted these, but they're both favored at minus three

418
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 1: and a half. So give me the Dolphins against the Jaguars.

419
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 1: I'm calling these strong leans. These are half unit plays

420
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,680
Speaker 1: right now to minus three and a half. I love

421
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,960
Speaker 1: the Dolphins. Early in the season. Mike McDaniel's offense comes

422
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 1: out firing. It takes defense as a bit to figure

423
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:42,720
Speaker 1: out the new twist and catch up. He's six and

424
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 1: zero against the spread lifetime first three weeks, so obviously

425
00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,680
Speaker 1: those two seasons they've been great. Early. Jaguars were better

426
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 1: defensively than offense last year, but they fired the defensive coordinator,

427
00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:54,119
Speaker 1: so I'm not really sure what that looks like, and

428
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:55,679
Speaker 1: I don't know if I want to find out. Against

429
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,119
Speaker 1: Mike McDaniel's offense, it's been waiting all off season to

430
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 1: do the thing. Whether here it's noon, it's a one

431
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 1: pm kickoff in Miami, looks like ninety degrees two a

432
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:07,760
Speaker 1: taiga by loo when it's seventy seven degrees are higher

433
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:11,119
Speaker 1: seventeen and four ats Trevor Lawrence two and six, so

434
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 1: not a team you want to play there. Miami chose

435
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,239
Speaker 1: this game in the slot at home in September. They

436
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,160
Speaker 1: know what they're doing here, they know it works for them.

437
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 1: The Lions minus three and a half home against the

438
00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:25,359
Speaker 1: Rams on Sunday night. We know I'm faying the Rams.

439
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 1: That was one of my favorite fade of the year.

440
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 1: I'm on there under I think this defense is by

441
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 1: far the week link in it's in this game and

442
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 1: the Lions can maybe name their numbers scoring here. Both

443
00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:39,879
Speaker 1: Rams tackles might be out here. The left tackle is

444
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 1: already suspended, the right tackle, Rob Havenstein is questionable. The

445
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,400
Speaker 1: Lions defensive line is getting pretty good these days, so

446
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 1: that looks troublesome to me. And another stat for you

447
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 1: here for the Rams. Teams that made the playoffs like

448
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 1: the Rams, but are road underdogs in Week one fifteen

449
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,480
Speaker 1: and thirty against the spread at thirty three percent. Dane

450
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 1: Campbell with Ben Johnson ats as a favorite five and

451
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 1: one ats first three weeks. So I love the Lions,

452
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 1: I love the Dolphins. I want them at minus three.

453
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 1: They're minus three and a half, so right now minus

454
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 1: three and a half their bets, but they're strong Leans

455
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,640
Speaker 1: half enough plays that if you get to three out there,

456
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 1: bet it right away.

457
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,400
Speaker 3: Okay, so those last two were Leans Dolphins minus three

458
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 3: and a half Lions.

459
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 4: Brandon would like three right now, it's three and a half.

460
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 3: And his other lightning round picks Packers plus two and

461
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,880
Speaker 3: a half and the Jets Monday night in San fran

462
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 3: getting four and a half points. Okay, we'll wrap with this,

463
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,400
Speaker 3: and I'm glad Brandon mentioned this. We will be back

464
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 3: together on Sunday nights for our recap episode, getting you

465
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,399
Speaker 3: all cut up on what happened on Sunday Slate, and

466
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 3: then we'll also have the hot read going into next week,

467
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,159
Speaker 3: but on Thursdays for our Thursday Records.

468
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 4: You're listening.

469
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 3: Friday morning, Brandon will deliver his look aheadline, a spot

470
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:58,120
Speaker 3: that he likes now for next week, and that's why

471
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 3: we're looking ahead, and he wants to capitalize. I'm not

472
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,879
Speaker 3: too surprised based on that he likes this team this

473
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:07,920
Speaker 3: week and the line to him just sticks out like

474
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,919
Speaker 3: a sore thumb. What's your look ahead for week two?

475
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:12,959
Speaker 4: Let's look ahead?

476
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 1: Just give it a shot.

477
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:19,639
Speaker 4: How about next week? I got my mindset, got my

478
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 4: mindbody's gonna take money out.

479
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 1: To do it right, chat, and this one was easy

480
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 1: for me. Give me the Seahawks minus three at the Patriots.

481
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,679
Speaker 1: I'm sorry if your Patriots, but we're going to profit

482
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 1: off of them. Remember, the goal of the look Ahead

483
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 1: is to get ahead of this weekend's games and gravel

484
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 1: line now that we might not get later. And I

485
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 1: do not think we are gonna get this line later.

486
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 1: We're on the Seahawks escalator. They're playing the Broncos. We're

487
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 1: expecting a big win, so we think's gonna look really good. Well,

488
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,880
Speaker 1: how about the Patriots. They're the biggest underdog in Week

489
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,440
Speaker 1: one in Cincinnati, so books are expecting a big loss there.

490
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,640
Speaker 1: We're expecting a big Seahawks win. I think the market

491
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 1: the Patriots hasn't quite cut up to the post Belichick

492
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 1: reality of how far things may have fallen, and it

493
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:07,680
Speaker 1: might catch up in a hurry if they get blown

494
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,120
Speaker 1: out in Cincinnati. So I think this is an absolute

495
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:13,399
Speaker 1: gift for Seattle. Start the year against Denver in New England.

496
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:14,880
Speaker 1: That is a great way to break in a new

497
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 1: coaching staff. I think this line is a gift to

498
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 1: us key number at three. Grab it if you can.

499
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 1: I think that will be long gone and we might

500
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 1: push toward a touchdown if these games go our direction.

501
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 1: So Seahawks and minus three at New England.

502
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 4: Pretty simple, Seattle minus three and week two at New England.

503
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,119
Speaker 3: I'm worried about how that's going to look on Sunday,

504
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 3: Patriots at Cincinnati.

505
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 4: Questions at Cincinnati.

506
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 3: We know that the history with Joe Burrow and how

507
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 3: they start. I think he's one in three since they

508
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 3: put him in the in the regime, one and three.

509
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 3: Very at least one and three against the against the number.

510
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 3: But okay, very good. There's Brandon spot for Week two

511
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 3: Seahawks minus three at the Patriots. That is going to

512
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 3: do it for our NFL Week one Best Bets episode

513
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 3: with Brandon Anderson right here on the Action Network podcast

514
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 3: Don't forget. Download the free winning Action Network app to

515
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 3: see more from Brandon Anderson and all of our NFL

516
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 3: contributors at the Action Network. You can track your own

517
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 3: picks in the app as well. Feel free to tail

518
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 3: and do what you please. Check out the Action Network

519
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 3: Discord server. You can chop it up with some of

520
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 3: our experts. Sean Kerner is there often, especially in those

521
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 3: standalone games Thursday Night, this week, Friday Night, Monday Night games.

522
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 3: Kerner is often in the Action Network discord. There is

523
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 3: a link to the discord in the description of this podcast.

524
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,679
Speaker 3: If you missed the Sunday six pack with Chris Raybon

525
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,360
Speaker 3: and Stucky, that episode is out now as well and

526
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:39,240
Speaker 3: our new NFL Roundtable episode. This week it was myself

527
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 3: joined by Evan Abrams, our director of research, and the

528
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,879
Speaker 3: aforementioned to Chris Raybon. We'll be back next week early

529
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 3: Friday morning. Be on the lookout for NFL Week two

530
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 3: best bets, and again, don't forget to join us.

531
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 4: I'm throwing a lot at you, but it's early in

532
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 4: the year. Don't forget to join us.

533
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 3: First thing Monday morning, myself and Brandon Anderson will be

534
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 3: there to recap all of the happenings in Week one

535
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 3: Sunday for Brandon Anderson, Brendan Glasheen, thanks for listening and

536
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 3: good luck.

537
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 2: With all of your vets in NFL Week one.

538
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

539
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

540
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

541
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:34,360
Speaker 3: hundred gambler