1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:10,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: Daybreak Aisia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. You can join Brian 3 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 1: Curtis and myself for the stories, making news and moving 4 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 1: markets in the APAC region. You can subscribe to the 5 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: show anywhere you get your podcast and always on Bloomberg Radio, 6 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. 7 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 2: Joining us now is Wendy Kutler, vice president at the 8 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 2: Asia Society Policy Institute and a former acting Deputy US 9 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 2: Trade Representative. MS Keller. Thank you very much for joining us. So, 10 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 2: Jannet Yellen's trip really didn't produce any specific agreements to 11 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 2: lower tensions on trade and investment, but it does seem 12 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 2: the mood is a little better. Is that just smoking 13 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 2: mirrors or is it real? 14 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 3: No? 15 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 4: I think that's a correct assessment. There's clearly more engagement 16 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 4: China at senior levels but also at the staff levels 17 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 4: at the Treasury Department and other economic agencies. So that's positive. 18 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 4: But as your other story indicated, there are serious concerns 19 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 4: on the horizon, particularly the over capacity in China's manufacturing industries, 20 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 4: which are grave concern not only to the US, but 21 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 4: to other countries including Europe, South Africa, Brazil and others 22 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 4: around the world. 23 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:35,199 Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely, the EU is moving closer. It would seem 24 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 1: to imposing additional tariffs on Chinese evs. I don't know 25 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: the way you can call it dumping necessarily, that used 26 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 1: to be the term we applied in the old days 27 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: when it came to these types of trade tensions. But 28 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: I'm curious as to whether or not you think Beijing 29 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: is marking a little time here until the dust settles 30 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 1: with respect to the presidential election. What do you think? 31 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 4: Well, I think that is a concern because Secretary Yellen 32 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 4: announced kind of a new intensive engagements on balanced economy 33 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:12,359 Speaker 4: looking at the supply and demand factors, and given past 34 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:16,399 Speaker 4: experience with China, this could serve as an excuse by 35 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:20,079 Speaker 4: China just to delay, delay, delay, keep talking, don't take 36 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 4: any actions. So I hope when she returns and reports 37 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 4: on progress made and what she's heard in Beijing to 38 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 4: the President that serious consideration will be taken in terms 39 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 4: of how the US should respond to potential export surges 40 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 4: by China in products like electric vehicles and batteries and 41 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:45,079 Speaker 4: clean energy. 42 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 2: Well, the EV sector is really an interesting playing field 43 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 2: to look at because China has actually innovated there and 44 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 2: it has worked very hard to get a lead in 45 00:02:56,200 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 2: the industry. But yes, it is selling vehicles very cheaply 46 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 2: in particularly in Europe, and it is helped by subsidies 47 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 2: in government aid. There's not really much doubt. I suppose 48 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 2: in some ways both sides are right and both sides 49 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 2: are wrong, and it depends on how you actually see 50 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:16,079 Speaker 2: globalization as to how you figure out who's right here. 51 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 4: Well, I look at it more like fair trade and 52 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:25,919 Speaker 4: unfair trade. And unfair trade to me is based on subsidies, 53 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:32,079 Speaker 4: financial assistance, low cost loans, incentives for battery procurement from 54 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 4: local companies. All of this has been used by China 55 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 4: to propel their electric vehicle sector. So no doubt they're 56 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 4: competitive now, but their competitiveness is based on a lot 57 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 4: of government money spent over a series of years to 58 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 4: propel them on the global stage. 59 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 1: It's interesting because after Yellen made her remarks later in 60 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: the day, we heard from the Vice Finance Minister Leol Minh. 61 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: He was saying that China is going to rely on 62 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 1: market forces to remove any excess in terms of capacity. Now, 63 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 1: whether that suggests that Beijing is willing to stomach stomach 64 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 1: what could be bankruptcy and some kind of consolidation as 65 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 1: a remedy to this situation. Do you think that's likely? 66 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 1: Or is Beijing going to dig in a little bit, 67 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 1: given everything that it's dealing with in terms of economic 68 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 1: sluggishness right now, and try to prop up companies for 69 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 1: as long as it can. 70 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 4: Well, they have an important decision to make. I think 71 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 4: they heard Secretary Yellen's message very clearly, and so now 72 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 4: they need to decide whether they continue and just export 73 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 4: NonStop or take a pause and implement some policies not 74 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 4: only to restrain domestic production but also to promote domestic demand. 75 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 4: And the domestic demand part of the equation is just 76 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:59,159 Speaker 4: an area and not really addressed by their economic policies. 77 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:04,360 Speaker 2: Ms Keller. We on purpose ran those two stories TSMC 78 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:08,840 Speaker 2: getting eleven point six billion dollars in grants and loans 79 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:11,920 Speaker 2: from the United States right next to the ev story. 80 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 2: You know, if you're on the Chinese side and you 81 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 2: see that, I mean, isn't that industrial policy, isn't that subsidy? 82 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:23,600 Speaker 4: Well it is, but our policies are in response to 83 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:27,920 Speaker 4: China's policies, and let's keep in mind, five to ten 84 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 4: to twenty billion dollars is nowhere in the ballpark of 85 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 4: the hundreds of billions of dollars that China has put 86 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:38,480 Speaker 4: into this industry to promote it and to make it 87 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 4: a global competitor. 88 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 1: I want to change gears because Prime Minister of fum 89 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:45,159 Speaker 1: Yo Kishida is going to be in the US first 90 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: date to visit this week, and obviously one topic is 91 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:51,919 Speaker 1: going to be Nippon Steele's attempt to buy US Deal. 92 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 1: Kishida will be addressing a joint session of Congress on Thursday, 93 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: and the following day US Deal shareholders are set to 94 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 1: vote on this fourteen billion dollar takeover. Do you think 95 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:06,359 Speaker 1: it's right for the US to object to this based 96 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 1: on grounds of Well, I don't know whether national security 97 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:13,719 Speaker 1: even enters into it. Certainly it feels a little protectionistic, 98 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:14,159 Speaker 1: does it not. 99 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 4: Well, first, I don't think this issue is going to 100 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 4: come up during the summit. I think that given all 101 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 4: of the issues that the US and Japan are cooperating on, 102 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 4: the Nipon steel issue is really minor in the larger landscape. 103 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 2: Well, I want to ask you a question. This kind 104 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:41,599 Speaker 2: of laced with you know, all kinds of hyperbole. I 105 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 2: suppose the US China tussle at the moment is like 106 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 2: playing marbles compared to what the AI tussle might be 107 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 2: is sort of compared to like Russian roulette. 108 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: Is that true? 109 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:58,359 Speaker 2: I mean, are we going into a very very difficult environment. 110 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 4: Look, environment has been difficult for a long time, and 111 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,920 Speaker 4: we shouldn't fool ourselves that just with these engagement and 112 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 4: trips by cabinet officers and senior leadership between the two 113 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 4: countries that the tensions are going to go away. All 114 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 4: that said, we need to remain engaged with China, and 115 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 4: so I think Secretary Yellen's trip was very important, not 116 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:27,560 Speaker 4: only to send important messages and convey concerns to China, 117 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 4: but also define areas where we can cooperate. And with 118 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 4: respect to artificial intelligence, I believe that there are aspects 119 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 4: of AI where not only we should cooperate, but we 120 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 4: need to cooperate to mitigate the potential risks of AI. 121 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: MIS and Mss Cutler very quickly in terms of the TikTok, 122 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 1: whether or not we get a bill here through Congress 123 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: that would force di vestiture away from the Chinese parent 124 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 1: bike dance. What's your view on that. 125 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 4: My view is that this is a very complicated issue, 126 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 4: but I think the US is on solid ground to 127 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 4: want to restrict the activities of TikTok, you know, if 128 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 4: not just for reciprocal reasons. If you look at the 129 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 4: ability of our comparable companies to operate in China, there's 130 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 4: no opportunity for them to operate. So I think it's 131 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 4: very hypocritical for China to complain about what we're doing 132 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 4: on TikTok when they don't let our big tech companies 133 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 4: operate in their countries. 134 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 2: Many thanks, Wendy Cutler, or vice president at the Asia 135 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 2: Society Policy Institute. With us, we'll please to say that 136 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 2: Joshua Crab, head of Asia Pacific Equities at Robiko, is 137 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 2: with us here, live in our studios, so Joshua, pretty 138 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,959 Speaker 2: interesting time here. We do have the US inflation data 139 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 2: this week that might color trading a little bit and 140 00:08:56,840 --> 00:09:00,439 Speaker 2: might also color whether we get two or three cuts 141 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 2: this year, and some are even saying, with US economy 142 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 2: this strong, we may not get any rate cuts. First, 143 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 2: before we get to some individual picks and regions and 144 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 2: sectors and such, how do you feel generally about risk assets. 145 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 5: At the moment. 146 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 3: Well, I think it depends on which risk assets we're 147 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 3: talking about. I think if we, you know, look at 148 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 3: the US market, for example, it's a very narrow market 149 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 3: led by small number of stocks we all know, very 150 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 3: very high valuations and very very high expectations. 151 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 5: That's at one end of the spectrum. 152 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 3: Bring it back to Asia, I think you have you know, 153 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 3: a number of markets here that have quite good long 154 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:38,319 Speaker 3: term or medium term sort of growth prospects in Vietnam, 155 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 3: in Indonesia, in the Philippines, et cetera. And then you 156 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 3: have places like China which maybe don't have as strong 157 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:47,559 Speaker 3: a long term growth but have very very cheap valuations. 158 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 3: So I think risk assets are actually quite dispersed at 159 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 3: the moment. 160 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 1: When you look at China. One of the things that 161 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:54,959 Speaker 1: we're going to be paying very close attention to this 162 00:09:55,000 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 1: week is the PPI CPI data midweek is in a 163 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:07,079 Speaker 1: period of stagnant deflation to the degree that we should 164 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 1: really be worried about the economy and putting more money 165 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:12,679 Speaker 1: to work in markets, whether it's the real estate market 166 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 1: or the equity market. 167 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:16,679 Speaker 3: Yeah, So, I mean, I think I think that sort 168 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 3: of it depends with you on look backward or forward. 169 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:21,200 Speaker 3: I think looking backwards, that's absolutely the case. Clearly we've 170 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 3: seen we've seen that environment. But it's always a question 171 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 3: of where we're you know, looking forward, what that sort 172 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 3: of changes. So we have very very low expectations on growth, 173 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,680 Speaker 3: we have very low expectations on things like inflation, et 174 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 3: cetera at this point in time. But if we look forward, 175 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 3: I think, you know, and this is interesting to us. 176 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 3: It's like, you know, for example, you know, companies had 177 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:40,680 Speaker 3: been missing quite a lot of being missing earnings, but 178 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 3: the expectations can get so low that even in a 179 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 3: weak environment, they start to beat. And you already have 180 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 3: sort of quite low valuations that sort of sit with that. 181 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 5: So I guess from my perspective. 182 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 3: The question is here is okay, so maybe maybe we 183 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 3: don't have a great growth environment. A lot of those 184 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 3: negatives are now in the price, So how do we 185 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:58,439 Speaker 3: make money in that market? And you know, I think 186 00:10:58,440 --> 00:10:59,960 Speaker 3: this is where it's interesting mireseing some some of the 187 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 3: is now starting to beat. Now they're not beating because 188 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 3: things are wonderful. They're beating because the expectations have got 189 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 3: that low. But also the valuations are low. You're seeing 190 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 3: increase things like buybacks, diffidends, privatizations, and that to us 191 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 3: is sort of when you start to see a bottomy 192 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 3: out of a market. Now for US, that really is 193 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 3: stock specific for now, so you really need to dive 194 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 3: into the stock. 195 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 2: Level, Joshua, despite what you said at the top, but 196 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:24,680 Speaker 2: we have actually seen quite a broadening out in the 197 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 2: US market, and you know, we only have to debate 198 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 2: that now. But if you look at Asia markets like 199 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,840 Speaker 2: Korea or Japan, are we seeing the same sort of 200 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:37,560 Speaker 2: activity with a broadening or has it really just solidly 201 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 2: been that way in Asia. 202 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 3: It's a little bit different depending on the market. I 203 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 3: think Japan and Career are interesting ones to sort of 204 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 3: use as a showcase because I think they've been a 205 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 3: bit different. There's a different driver of that, and in 206 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 3: Japan that's been going on for some time around you know, restructuring, reorganization, 207 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 3: more shareholder friendly policies, and we've started to see that eken. 208 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 5: A little bit in Korea as well. 209 00:11:58,440 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 3: So if we bring that back to Japan, I think 210 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:01,679 Speaker 3: you have had a number of stocks which are sort 211 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:03,960 Speaker 3: of caught up in that sort of AI sort of 212 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 3: aura that have done very, very well, you've had a 213 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:08,680 Speaker 3: number of the very large cap companies which is often 214 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 3: correlated with that, that have done very well as well. But 215 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:13,720 Speaker 3: outside of that, over a sort of longer period, we've seen, 216 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 3: you know, some of the things like the financials do well. 217 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 3: We've seen the industrials, and I think that's been the 218 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 3: standout sector because they're the ones where we are seeing 219 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 3: those unwine year cross shareholdings, that rationalization of business, and 220 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 3: the increase in things like buybacks. 221 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 1: So I hear what you're saying when you're talking about 222 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:30,199 Speaker 1: having to really drill down into specific names. But if 223 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,680 Speaker 1: we can talk about industry groups. You just mentioned the 224 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 1: financials there maybe some of the industrial names. What are 225 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 1: the areas that you want to avoid in China industries specifically, 226 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 1: sorry in. 227 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 5: China or Japan in China, Okay. 228 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 3: So the way I would sort of from an industry perspective, 229 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 3: I think that you know, things like the export market, 230 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 3: for example, has been and think things like export and 231 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 3: real estate has been a big driver of the economy 232 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 3: for decades. Right, And if we sort of look forward 233 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:01,439 Speaker 3: about what needs to happen in China, as we need 234 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 3: to see more focus on the consumer, right, we need 235 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:06,439 Speaker 3: to see more focus on sort of what's happening internally. 236 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 3: We need to see more focus on moving to higher 237 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 3: value add in the manufacturing sector. 238 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:13,360 Speaker 5: So that's that for US is where you need to look. 239 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 3: Now you have to be careful because you know the 240 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 3: rest of the market knows this as well. So some 241 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 3: of these stocks are trading at two higher premiums relative. 242 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:23,960 Speaker 3: But we think that is the area where what needs 243 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:26,240 Speaker 3: to change in China for it to go back onto 244 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 3: a better growth trajectory than what we've seen. 245 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:31,440 Speaker 2: Well, it needs to get you know, the discount sort 246 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:34,920 Speaker 2: of set aside by investors. For one thing, you have 247 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 2: a discount on South Korea, which you've had long standing 248 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 2: in place, and China now as well. For instance, this year, 249 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 2: you know some of the market we talked about the 250 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:48,559 Speaker 2: Nike and also the Taiaks in Taiwan up eight and 251 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 2: a half to nine to ten percent year to date, 252 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:52,559 Speaker 2: similar to what we've seen from the S and P 253 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 2: five hundred. The cost be actually lower, the cost be 254 00:13:56,640 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 2: down one point seven percent US dollar terms. So is 255 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:02,640 Speaker 2: Korea one that can can be different for the rest 256 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:03,120 Speaker 2: of this year? 257 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:04,440 Speaker 5: I think it can. 258 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:06,320 Speaker 3: And this is where things like the election are really 259 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:08,839 Speaker 3: going to matter. You know, you talked about, you know, 260 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 3: the career discount, and there are a number of reasons 261 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 3: for that, but one of the ones that I think 262 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 3: is most relevant and can have the biggest impact in 263 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 3: the short term is shareholder policies, right, And it's a 264 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 3: bit like Japan. You know, we haven't seen a lot 265 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 3: of dividends, you don't see a lot of buyerbacks, you 266 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 3: don't see a lot of these type of activities. But 267 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 3: a bit like Japan, there is a bit of a 268 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 3: mindset change happening. We've talked about this for decad for 269 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 3: the best part of a decade, but I think there 270 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 3: are a number of you know, impacts happening at the 271 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 3: same time here. Right, you've got the pension schemes locally 272 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 3: not putting money and needing to take money out. Now 273 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 3: you've got a stock exchange which is quite focused on 274 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 3: bringing up the valuations of these companies. And then I 275 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 3: think you've also got a you know, sort of a 276 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 3: national element. Like the Japanese have done this, we can 277 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 3: do this as well. So I think there are a 278 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 3: number of these influencers coming at the same time. So 279 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 3: if the election stays, if the current party stays in power. 280 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 3: This continues to be a push. I think then you 281 00:14:58,000 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 3: find the management teams that actually are really going to 282 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 3: affect change. And yes, I think there can be some 283 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 3: great opportunities to make money, but probably more alpha than 284 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 3: I would say look at the individual market, because some 285 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 3: companies won't. 286 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, some good tips there, Joshua, thanks very 287 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 2: much for coming into our studios with us live here, 288 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 2: Joshua crabhead of Asia Pacific Equities at Robiko, lad Savov, 289 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Tech editor with us in our studios here in 290 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 2: Hong Kong. It's nice to have you back in here. 291 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 2: So this is a big deal. You got three plants 292 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 2: by TSMC, and we just mentioned that whopping sixty five 293 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 2: billion dollars in total investments, the US helping out with 294 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 2: some subsidies I suppose. And this is also a very 295 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 2: high tech plant that we're talking about here, this third 296 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 2: fabrication site, because they will have next generation two nanometer 297 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 2: process technology. When is that likely to come to fruition. 298 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 6: Well, it's an interesting question, and one way to look 299 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 6: at it is also to the specific challenges that TSMC 300 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 6: has in building its chip making facilities in the US. 301 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 6: It isn't Taiwan, which is where TSMC has built up 302 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 6: its lead as the world's leading ship maker. It is 303 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 6: in Japan where TSMC just inaugurated its new plant ahead 304 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 6: of time. Because Japanese construction is largely uncontested around the world. 305 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 6: The Japanese very proud of how quickly they build their 306 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 6: fab TSMC, for its part, its first facility has been delayed, 307 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:31,200 Speaker 6: has been subject to delays. Part of it is TSMC 308 00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 6: has said this, it's the lack of qualified labor. It's 309 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 6: also running to issues with labor unions. In the United States. 310 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 6: It isn't as smooth sailing as it has been in 311 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 6: Taiwan and Japan, So some of this is I mean, 312 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 6: it's a very optimistic, very positive outlook at the moment, 313 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 6: with both the nation and the company putting their best 314 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 6: foot forward, putting a lot of money into it. But 315 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 6: it is going to depend on the smooth operation of 316 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 6: construction and development as we go along. 317 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely, And I think it's a big concerned that 318 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 1: there is a delay here in a presidential election year 319 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 1: where the administration would probably like to see a little 320 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 1: bit more in the way of progress. Is there anything 321 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 1: that you think the administration can do to improve the 322 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 1: timeline here or is this outside the control of the 323 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:16,920 Speaker 1: White House. 324 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 6: Well, I think the measures of the White House has 325 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 6: taken so far significant more than significance. I mean, when 326 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 6: you compare it to the rest of the world. I 327 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 6: mentioned Japan, they're putting in much smaller sums of money. 328 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 6: When you look at the US, they're kind of uncontested 329 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:34,960 Speaker 6: in the amount of money that they can in both 330 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,760 Speaker 6: in grants and in loans to these companies. It's six 331 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 6: point seven billion dollars in grants to TSMC. That's part 332 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 6: of what's enticed TSMC to step up into its investments. 333 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 6: Until yesterday, officially TSMC had only planned two plants. Now 334 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,160 Speaker 6: that they made the announcements, it's free plans. It's more 335 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:53,360 Speaker 6: than sixty five billion dollars. Previously it was more than 336 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:56,439 Speaker 6: forty billion dollars. So what the US is doing is 337 00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:59,639 Speaker 6: it's putting in the investment directly, it's leveraging it to 338 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:02,680 Speaker 6: get your investment from the likes of TSMC and Edwin, 339 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,679 Speaker 6: who you cited earlier. He mentioned Samson is in the running. 340 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 6: Samson also stepped off his investment because the way that 341 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 6: the US has structured its subsidies and support. Is the 342 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:13,439 Speaker 6: more you put in, the more you will get out 343 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:17,719 Speaker 6: of us. And moreover, it's worth saying they have various 344 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 6: benchmarks that they're going to have as TSMC goes through 345 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:23,159 Speaker 6: with the development. They're not just going to unload the 346 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:26,639 Speaker 6: money in TSMC's theoretical bank account and leave them to it, 347 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 6: which I think shows also a bit of foresight and 348 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,120 Speaker 6: a bit of some of the lessons learned maybe from 349 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:34,200 Speaker 6: the experience with Fox Cone in Wisconsin previously. 350 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 2: And Heine's also looking to get some funding. I'm curious, though, 351 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 2: what you think this little bit of a black eye 352 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:45,120 Speaker 2: that the US doesn't have the same quality tech workers. 353 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 2: It may just be the numbers because the US has 354 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:53,440 Speaker 2: so many demands on its well educated engineers and tech workers. 355 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 2: But is this something that will have to change for 356 00:18:56,840 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 2: this third fabrication site to actually, you know, make any progress. 357 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,440 Speaker 1: Well, I would imagine what are. 358 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 2: We seeing on the US side to you know, to 359 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,160 Speaker 2: increase the number of these types of workers to be available. 360 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 6: I would imagine TSMC would very much welcome that. Let's 361 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,200 Speaker 6: put it in those terms. But I should also mention 362 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 6: there is one company I don't want to mention the 363 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 6: company necessarily, but they do their production in China and 364 00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 6: then they do specific production for military purposes for the 365 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:27,359 Speaker 6: US in Finland. And what it told me is that 366 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 6: the cost of labor is two to three times. It 367 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:31,639 Speaker 6: makes the product two to three times more expensive to 368 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 6: produce the same product that they do in China in Finland. 369 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 6: It's just simply the case that for the qualification and 370 00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 6: the cost, Asia is uncontested as far as labor force goes. 371 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 6: So the US is dealing with an issue that most 372 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 6: of Europe is dealing with. Likewise, so I am sure that. 373 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 6: I mean, there are politicians, there are members of the 374 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:55,479 Speaker 6: administration who are pushing to improve things like immigration measures 375 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 6: to encourage more people to come over. But likewise, this 376 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 6: is an international competition. And Japan, again I keep mentioning it, 377 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 6: it has its own initiatives to bring its own semiconductor 378 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 6: engineers back from places like the US so that they 379 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,359 Speaker 6: can support Japan's own chip making endeavors. 380 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 1: It's interesting that you make that point because if you 381 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:17,160 Speaker 1: look at the history of the semiconductor industry, I mean, 382 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 1: these products were developed in the United States. Hong Kong 383 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:25,719 Speaker 1: at one point was a major place of assembly Japan 384 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 1: as well, and then it migrated obviously to Taiwan. And 385 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:33,120 Speaker 1: now we're talking about China trying to create greater runway 386 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:36,159 Speaker 1: for advanced chips. But in terms of the companies that 387 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 1: are going to benefit downstream, and I'm thinking about ASML 388 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:44,399 Speaker 1: in particular. This company undoubtedly, no matter where you slice it, 389 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,399 Speaker 1: just by virtue of the fact that they own so 390 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,680 Speaker 1: much of the high end manufacturing technology, they will also 391 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 1: be a big beneficiary in this build up, will they not? 392 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 3: Oh? 393 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,679 Speaker 6: Absolutely? And the fun part for ASMOS don't have to 394 00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 6: do anything. The entire thing is just falling into their 395 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 6: lab because likely, as you say, the extreme ultra violet 396 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 6: machines which are the key to doing the most advanced 397 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,120 Speaker 6: of making today until somebody invents an alternative, and that's 398 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,639 Speaker 6: nowhere on the horizon. ASMO is the only provider of those. 399 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 6: So the more that the likes of Japan, the US, 400 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 6: China too, but ASMO can't explot those to China. The 401 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 6: more that nations INDIAU throw into that conversation as well. 402 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 6: The more that nations, the more that companies like TSMC 403 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:26,640 Speaker 6: and Samsung or is in hot competition with each other, 404 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:28,399 Speaker 6: the more that they invest. The more that they put in, 405 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 6: the more the likes of ASML benefit. And again I 406 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:33,680 Speaker 6: keep coming back to Japan, but it's worth mentioning there 407 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:37,920 Speaker 6: are so many companies that are rising triple. I mean, 408 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:41,120 Speaker 6: we covered one just recently, Towa Corp. In Japan, which 409 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:45,920 Speaker 6: quintuple the share price simply because it provides compound compound 410 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:50,160 Speaker 6: moding that Heiniz and Samsung use in their advanced AI memory. 411 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 2: Somehow, in Japan, they're they're finding workers that you know, 412 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 2: don't demand too much. So it is some of this 413 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:01,040 Speaker 2: nearly twelve billion dollars of funding in these round of 414 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,800 Speaker 2: loans and grants to TSMC, will some of that actually 415 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 2: be there to support hiring, to pay better salaries to 416 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 2: people in order to attract them. 417 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 6: That's a good question that we should ask TSMC, I 418 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,920 Speaker 6: would say, and let's not say that anybody's asking too much. 419 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,400 Speaker 6: It may very well be, I mean, given the different 420 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 6: costs of living in various places, it may be very 421 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 6: reasonable prices that people are looking for. And again we're 422 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 6: not just looking for unqualified labor. A lot of this 423 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 6: is advanced engineering and advanced skill. And one of the secrets, 424 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,680 Speaker 6: so to speak of TSMC's leadership is the fact that 425 00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 6: it has people with decades and decades of experience of 426 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,120 Speaker 6: running these chip making factories. 427 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,080 Speaker 1: No doubt about that. And I think Intel, which will 428 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 1: obviously also participate in these grants from the US Chips Act, 429 00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,639 Speaker 1: has said that it will, as a part of its investment, 430 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,679 Speaker 1: increase training so that they are looking at kind of 431 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:55,880 Speaker 1: carving out their own workforce and maybe creating a fast track. 432 00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 1: I don't know whether it's clearly not a college degree, 433 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,960 Speaker 1: but it's did the type of technical degree that would 434 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:05,440 Speaker 1: be required for anyone who's working in one of these fabs. 435 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, Doug, we got an extra chair here 436 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 2: in our studios for Vlad, and I think he has 437 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 2: designs on it. Do you think Lad you're gonna hang 438 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 2: out with us for a while? 439 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,400 Speaker 6: Always ready for him? Brian, Yeah, Yeah. 440 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,880 Speaker 2: He talks to me when we're getting coffee, you know, like, hey, 441 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:23,119 Speaker 2: let's do something on the radio. 442 00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:24,360 Speaker 1: There you go, I said. 443 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:28,119 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing to the 444 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,640 Speaker 2: stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 445 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 2: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more 446 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,879 Speaker 2: episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg subscribe to 447 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 2: the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, 448 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:46,200 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 449 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:47,520 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.