WEBVTT - Chipotle CEO on Earnings, Inflation and Crypto

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Well, well, mena maybe having

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<v Speaker 1>a tough time in the aftermarket. Chipotle Mexican Mexican Grill.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's try it again. Chipotle Mexican Grill in the aftermarket

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<v Speaker 1>yesterday was soaring, and it's soared in today's session, up

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<v Speaker 1>more than six at its highs. And this is after

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<v Speaker 1>the company reported second quarter earnings at top analyst projections.

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<v Speaker 1>The chain adding new locations consumers show that they were

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<v Speaker 1>willing to show up and pay more. The company also

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<v Speaker 1>provided an upbeat sales outlook. So great to have back

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<v Speaker 1>with us. We got with us and Nicol. He is

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<v Speaker 1>the CEO of chip Pole. It's good to have you

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<v Speaker 1>with us, Brian. How are you. I'm great, Yeah, thanks

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<v Speaker 1>for having me guys. Yeah, thanks so much for joining

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<v Speaker 1>us on this. Hey, Carol went through some of these.

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<v Speaker 1>We also want to mention the same store sales growing

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<v Speaker 1>in the mid to high single digits in the third quarter.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the outlook that you gave. Um. What worked so

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<v Speaker 1>well this past quarter, as we're sort of getting a

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<v Speaker 1>tail of two different earnings reports at this point, what

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<v Speaker 1>worked was so well for you guys? Well, unfortunately for us. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, our customer mix definitely over indexes with higher

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<v Speaker 1>income and we saw that group actually increase their purchase

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<v Speaker 1>frequency with us, and uh, their spend was also a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of So what we concluded is we we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen some trade down and you know, people are switching

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<v Speaker 1>some occasions in digitotle, so we feel like we're gaining

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<v Speaker 1>market share um for our company. Uh. And then at

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<v Speaker 1>the same token, we did see a slight slow down

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<v Speaker 1>with the lower income consumer from a purchase frequency standpoint,

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<v Speaker 1>but not in their absolute spend. And you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>thing that was really powerful for us throughout the quarter

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<v Speaker 1>is our restaurants were staffed, um, you know, and our

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<v Speaker 1>team members did a great job of servicing both our

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<v Speaker 1>digital business, which is rough, and our frontline business, which

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<v Speaker 1>is really accelerating as people kind of come back to

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<v Speaker 1>normal routines. And uh, that was really the thing that

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<v Speaker 1>I think carried us to order. And then obviously our

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<v Speaker 1>brain has tremendous value. Uh, and as a result, we

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<v Speaker 1>were able to pass through some pricing to offset a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of the inflationary pressures we've been dealing with. Brod,

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<v Speaker 1>I gotta ask you, I mean, when you saw these

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<v Speaker 1>results coming in are leading up to this earnings report, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>were you just kind of blown away? I mean, even

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<v Speaker 1>restaurant margin, which we all watch so closely because it's

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<v Speaker 1>key in terms of measuring profitability in the quarter, compared

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<v Speaker 1>with an estimate of I mean, as the numbers were

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<v Speaker 1>coming in, and you know, were you just kind of

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<v Speaker 1>blown away by the performance considering the declines we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>in consumer sentiment and so much recessionary talk. Yeah, Look,

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<v Speaker 1>I really think it goes back to the strength of

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<v Speaker 1>both our teams that are executing in our restaurants, because

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they're the ones that turn the top line

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<v Speaker 1>into the bottom line based on how they perform in

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<v Speaker 1>the restaurant. And then I think the I would say

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<v Speaker 1>the strength of brand, which is, you know, it's really

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<v Speaker 1>based on great culinary, great ingredients, you know, customization and convenience,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think we did a great job of executing

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<v Speaker 1>against all those markers and as a result, um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we were rewarded with people's business that then our teams

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<v Speaker 1>did a great job of executing so that it flowed

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<v Speaker 1>to the bottom line. But yeah, I'm really proud of

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<v Speaker 1>the results. You know, to achieve a ten percent pump

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<v Speaker 1>and also be able to you know, deliver the margins

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<v Speaker 1>at the restaurant in this environment, I think it speaks

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<v Speaker 1>of testament to just the value proposition, the strength of

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<v Speaker 1>the brand in the strength of the people working in

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<v Speaker 1>our restaurants. And while analysts in the investment community were

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<v Speaker 1>pretty happy about what they had heard, you know, in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of your comp sales, I just want to mention

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<v Speaker 1>another headline crossing about another company, best Buy, talking about

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<v Speaker 1>their second quarter comp sales, and they're talking about them

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<v Speaker 1>declining about so a different company, but this stock is

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<v Speaker 1>now down about five percent and the after hours. Hey, Brian,

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<v Speaker 1>back to Chipotle. Let's talk about wages because I know

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<v Speaker 1>that we heard from you guys last night that labor

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<v Speaker 1>cross for the quarter were increased about thirty basis points

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<v Speaker 1>from last year twenty four eight percent. You did that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know wage rays last year. That's sort of widespread

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<v Speaker 1>wage increase. Are you gonna have to do that again?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we are continuing to see pockets of you know,

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<v Speaker 1>needs to do still movement on our wages. The good

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<v Speaker 1>news for us is we took a really big move

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<v Speaker 1>about a year ago, which you manage, and then really

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<v Speaker 1>what we've been doing is just monitoring kind of at

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<v Speaker 1>the local level what's happening with wages and opportunity at

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<v Speaker 1>our company, so that we need to attract retain the

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<v Speaker 1>right people. And we still are dealing with I like

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<v Speaker 1>to say, pockets of challenges on that front. Where are

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<v Speaker 1>those geographical pockets? Yeah, and it's almost look it's like

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<v Speaker 1>store by store, Um, you know, it's not contained one

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<v Speaker 1>region over another region. It really depends on what I

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<v Speaker 1>would call kind of the market area. And you know

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of dynamics that go into it. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>is there big box retail nearby? What are the other

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<v Speaker 1>alternatives for um kind of the the employee pool that

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<v Speaker 1>we compete with. So while you raised wages pretty much

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<v Speaker 1>across the board last year, by not necessarily you will

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<v Speaker 1>have to do the same thing this year or your

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<v Speaker 1>you might might have to. We're look, we're still moving

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<v Speaker 1>forward with MERITA increases, and we did a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>bigger merit increase than usual given the inflationary environment, because

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<v Speaker 1>we don't want to fall behind on wages either, given

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the environment we're dealing with, So that's really

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<v Speaker 1>important to us. So I should probably caveat. We're trying

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<v Speaker 1>to run our wage program on more of a you

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<v Speaker 1>know system basis, where it happens every six months we

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<v Speaker 1>re evaluate wages, you know, we pass along merit increases,

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<v Speaker 1>and also we provide promotions for folks. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>before we were having to come in between those because

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you just the competition to get labor to

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<v Speaker 1>work had really increased dramatically because there were fewer people applying. Luckily,

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<v Speaker 1>that seems to have gone um to more of a

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<v Speaker 1>normal pace where applicant flow as well as our ability

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<v Speaker 1>to then retain people as as starting to get more

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<v Speaker 1>I would say, to a normal approach for us UM

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<v Speaker 1>or normal run rate. I gotta ask you only because

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<v Speaker 1>it's been another story that we've been following for the

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<v Speaker 1>last few months about unionization that we're seeing certainly among

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<v Speaker 1>you know, restaurants. Are you how do you guys feel

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<v Speaker 1>about that or is that part of your move to

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<v Speaker 1>make sure you stay ahead of when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>higher wage is because would you prefer that your restaurants

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<v Speaker 1>don't become unionized or are you okay about it? Yeah? Look,

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<v Speaker 1>I really don't see the need for union at chipotlech Um.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I believe our jobs and the culture and

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<v Speaker 1>the opportunities are best done within our restaurants and within

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<v Speaker 1>our company. We don't need a third party to be

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<v Speaker 1>a part of that conversation. And the reason why I

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<v Speaker 1>say that is we've got great wages. Um, okay, they're

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<v Speaker 1>great jobs. Were a growth company. You have the ability

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<v Speaker 1>to join our company with you know, a high school

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<v Speaker 1>degree or some equivalent. Um. And also if you talk

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<v Speaker 1>to any like new immigrants or refugees, I mean this,

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<v Speaker 1>this company delivers jobs and deliver the American dream. And

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<v Speaker 1>I can share many stories where you know, I was

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<v Speaker 1>just with somebody that was a refugee from the Congo.

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<v Speaker 1>He's now one of our highest level general managers, making

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<v Speaker 1>six figures, leading a multimillion dollar restaurant, a team of

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<v Speaker 1>thirty plus people. And the guy is electric and you

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<v Speaker 1>know what he's gonna be able to continue to grow with. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a young woman should be immigrated from Chihuahua, Mexico,

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<v Speaker 1>single female, didn't know English, learns English. You know, nine

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<v Speaker 1>years later, she's our top restaurant general manager in the

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<v Speaker 1>entire coping. So yeah, there's just tremendous opportunity for people

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<v Speaker 1>to go from a crew position, work their way up

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<v Speaker 1>to being a general manager, becoming what we call a

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<v Speaker 1>restaurant tour which is our top general managers, becoming a

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<v Speaker 1>multi unit leader. And when you're when you're building restaurants

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<v Speaker 1>a year, there is so much suction for people to

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<v Speaker 1>get promotered and moved up. I I think last year

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<v Speaker 1>we promoted you know, like nineteen people. Um, so, just

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<v Speaker 1>tremendous opportunity. And you know, I'm very proud of our

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<v Speaker 1>company and I'm very proud of the jobs that we

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<v Speaker 1>provide to our people. Hey, Brian, a lot those still

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<v Speaker 1>out of your control, especially when it comes to costs.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is something that we heard fed J. J.

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<v Speaker 1>Powell talking about the rising costs across the board, especially

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<v Speaker 1>for food. We did learn last night in your earnings

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<v Speaker 1>report that you mentioned avocados, dairy tortillas, some packaging. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>those prices are still going up. You did those say

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<v Speaker 1>that other parts of the business you've seen prices plateau.

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<v Speaker 1>What is that? Where? Where has where has inflation been

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<v Speaker 1>transitory in your business? Well? Yeah, don't mistake that for

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<v Speaker 1>transitory because it hasn't gone back right, So you're not

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<v Speaker 1>ready to call peak inflation. Not ready to call peak

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<v Speaker 1>inflation yet. I wish, I wish I could, and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not ready to say that because we haven't seen anything

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<v Speaker 1>really go backwards yet. Um. The good because is we

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<v Speaker 1>finally had like I don't know if you can call

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<v Speaker 1>this a trend, but we have like a month or

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<v Speaker 1>two where we didn't see everything going up. Um. But

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<v Speaker 1>as you mentioned, we had some major inputs going up

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<v Speaker 1>still uh and in a meaningful way. And that's why

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Unfortunately we've got to take another price increase

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<v Speaker 1>in August. Um, as much as I hate to do it,

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<v Speaker 1>we're fortunate that our brand has the pricing power to

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<v Speaker 1>do it. Uh, and we can maintain the integrity of

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<v Speaker 1>our value. Was it what ingredients? What ingredients are you

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<v Speaker 1>referring to? Was a chicken was at steak? What was it?

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<v Speaker 1>That plateau? Or continue? Yeah? That that that plateau? It

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<v Speaker 1>was it was more in the proteins, so like pork,

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<v Speaker 1>beef in some produce items. Unfortunately packaging aluminum, Uh, dairy tortillas, avocados,

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<v Speaker 1>chicken um continue to have a lot of pressure. One

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<v Speaker 1>thing I want to ask you about, Brian. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you're continue to grow in terms of the number of

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<v Speaker 1>restaurants and especially the pickup windows. You know, where is

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<v Speaker 1>the real growth and momentum that you guys continue to see.

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<v Speaker 1>I've been out to visit It's really pretty cool to

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<v Speaker 1>see the different lines that you guys are able to

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<v Speaker 1>tap into, and certainly the digital world of people just

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<v Speaker 1>either ordering online and just zipping by and picking up.

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<v Speaker 1>So where is it that you really continue to see

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<v Speaker 1>growth in terms of the types of restaurants you want

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<v Speaker 1>to be opening up? Yeah, look the restaurant the Chipotle

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<v Speaker 1>lane format um is you know, a traditional Chipole with

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<v Speaker 1>a pickup window where you don't have to get out

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<v Speaker 1>of your car and those restaurants and we now have

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<v Speaker 1>four hundred and thirty of them, and I think the

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<v Speaker 1>last time we spoke or maybe the first time we

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<v Speaker 1>spoke about this, I think when we were talking about it,

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<v Speaker 1>we had like Tan in the back in like two

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<v Speaker 1>thousand nineteen. So it just shows the power of our development. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>but they continue to really perform. You know, our digital

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<v Speaker 1>business is about big uh in in that execution, and

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<v Speaker 1>then the total business is also opens at a higher

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<v Speaker 1>volume as well. So uh, that's what we're building. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>We just opened our first one up in Canada to

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<v Speaker 1>a really successful opening, and then just recently we opened

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<v Speaker 1>one and kind of a smaller town outside California. It's

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<v Speaker 1>like a new record opening for us. So it's got

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of momentum. Will continue to build the inline

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<v Speaker 1>um Chipotle's as well where we can't get the chipotlenk.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's clear consumers like the additional access point of

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<v Speaker 1>not having to get another car, and it really it's

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<v Speaker 1>the fastest drive the experience you can have because you

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<v Speaker 1>ordered ahead, you've already paid for it. If you order

0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:50.240
<v Speaker 1>a fountain drink, that's the thing that you gotta wait

0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:52.840
<v Speaker 1>on otherwise you pull up, say your name, and you

0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:55.760
<v Speaker 1>know you got a burrito and you're ready to go. Hey, Brian,

0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:57.640
<v Speaker 1>about a year ago we were interviewing you and I

0:11:57.640 --> 0:12:01.000
<v Speaker 1>asked you about Chipotle accepting crypto, and I gotta be honest,

0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:03.280
<v Speaker 1>you kind of laughed it off, and and here we

0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:05.920
<v Speaker 1>are a year later, and you know, June of this

0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:09.040
<v Speaker 1>year you announced that you now accept crypto at US

0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:12.560
<v Speaker 1>locations his partnership with Flexa. So essentially, people load up

0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:15.199
<v Speaker 1>this app with with their crypto and then you accept

0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:18.040
<v Speaker 1>that app at the restaurants. What how's that going right now?

0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:20.880
<v Speaker 1>What percentage of sales is in crypto at this point?

0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:25.320
<v Speaker 1>It's uh, you know, look, it's a really neat tool

0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:29.640
<v Speaker 1>that Flexa provides so that people can monetize their crypto. Um,

0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:33.080
<v Speaker 1>but you know they carry all the risk and uh,

0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:36.960
<v Speaker 1>it's a very very small percentage of sales. Um. Arguably

0:12:36.960 --> 0:12:40.439
<v Speaker 1>it's almost negligible. But um, you know, for those that

0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:42.920
<v Speaker 1>have it and want to monetize it, we found I

0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:45.480
<v Speaker 1>think a pretty clever solution. All right, but you are

0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:47.600
<v Speaker 1>doing and then buy the dip game, right and if

0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:51.199
<v Speaker 1>you win, you can get it, but you could get

0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:53.280
<v Speaker 1>you gotta could get about crypt We got a lot

0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:55.560
<v Speaker 1>of creative people in our own marketing department. I'll tell

0:12:55.559 --> 0:12:58.560
<v Speaker 1>you that much. Well, but why do promotion in time?

0:12:58.760 --> 0:13:01.280
<v Speaker 1>Even dose coin is in there like so no, no, no,

0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:03.600
<v Speaker 1>but but it is interesting. Is it just kind of

0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:06.320
<v Speaker 1>its appeals to your audience and you know what is it?

0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:09.480
<v Speaker 1>You know, Look, we have a commitment to stay relevant

0:13:10.040 --> 0:13:14.040
<v Speaker 1>both in culture, food, culture, you know, music. You know,

0:13:14.120 --> 0:13:16.760
<v Speaker 1>I guess tech falls all the way to this idea

0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:19.080
<v Speaker 1>of crypto and uh, I think the team does a

0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:21.959
<v Speaker 1>fabulous job of staying on the front end of where

0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:25.720
<v Speaker 1>young people want to be, uh, and then also being

0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:28.000
<v Speaker 1>very relevant. You know, I never want our brand to

0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:32.200
<v Speaker 1>be out of sync with the conversation and uh. You know, look,

0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:35.000
<v Speaker 1>the reality is the things that drive culture, right, It's food,

0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:38.080
<v Speaker 1>it's fashion, its sports, it's music. I think it's tech.

0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:40.439
<v Speaker 1>So we want to be president in those things. Well.

0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:41.760
<v Speaker 1>I love that you said tech because we had a

0:13:41.760 --> 0:13:44.840
<v Speaker 1>great conversation with your chief technology officer last week, Kirk Corner,

0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:47.920
<v Speaker 1>and we talked about the Cultivate Next venture fund. You

0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:51.280
<v Speaker 1>guys are investing in companies like hyphen and we were

0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:53.400
<v Speaker 1>actually kind of blown away. We were online Tim and

0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:56.720
<v Speaker 1>I looking at at this make line of where you've

0:13:56.720 --> 0:14:00.400
<v Speaker 1>got teams in the restaurants servicing customer is and then

0:14:00.480 --> 0:14:03.600
<v Speaker 1>yet below all the digital orders are being filled. I mean,

0:14:03.880 --> 0:14:05.640
<v Speaker 1>when you think about the investments you want to be

0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:08.200
<v Speaker 1>making in other companies, how do you think about it?

0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:11.800
<v Speaker 1>What's the strategy there? Well? Yeah, look, I am I'm

0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:16.120
<v Speaker 1>super excited about this hyphen possibility for exactly what you

0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:18.880
<v Speaker 1>just described. Right, We've got think of it this way, right,

0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:22.920
<v Speaker 1>our business is on that digital makeline. If we could

0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:27.800
<v Speaker 1>automate that aspect of our business where you know, you

0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:30.600
<v Speaker 1>only need a person or two to manage it, uh,

0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:33.040
<v Speaker 1>it makes the job a lot easier in way for

0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:35.880
<v Speaker 1>our employees because now you're not having really balanced deployment

0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:40.120
<v Speaker 1>between digital orders and frontline orders. And uh, at the

0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:42.680
<v Speaker 1>same token, you know, in the event it goes down,

0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:45.240
<v Speaker 1>you still can serve off the top of the line.

0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:51.000
<v Speaker 1>So that hyphen technology, automation, robotics, whatever term you want

0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:55.040
<v Speaker 1>to give it, is I think a big, big opportunity

0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:58.160
<v Speaker 1>for us. I'm super excited about our investment. I've met

0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:00.440
<v Speaker 1>the guys that are working on it, or should save

0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:02.760
<v Speaker 1>a team that's working on it up in San Jose,

0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:05.520
<v Speaker 1>smart group of people. I never thought I could say

0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:08.280
<v Speaker 1>I would have a bunch of rocket sciences. I got

0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:10.880
<v Speaker 1>a bunch of rocket sciences working by which is pretty amazing.

0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:14.360
<v Speaker 1>This technology and every walk of our life, that's for sure. Hey,

0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:16.880
<v Speaker 1>Brian Fund to spend some time with you. Brian Nicol,

0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:19.640
<v Speaker 1>of course, the chairman and CEO Chipotle, joining us via

0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:22.920
<v Speaker 1>Zoom from the company's headquarters in Newport Beach, California. Brian, Bwell,

0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:27.160
<v Speaker 1>thank you. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:31.640
<v Speaker 1>Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:34.240
<v Speaker 1>So we know during the pandemic that a broader clientele

0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:37.520
<v Speaker 1>was boarding private jets, especially as business travel came to

0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:39.600
<v Speaker 1>a hall. And we've got a great guest to give

0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:42.800
<v Speaker 1>us kind of an update is how the projjet industry

0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:45.800
<v Speaker 1>continues to evolve as we increasingly come out of the pandemic.

0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:47.920
<v Speaker 1>But we're not done yet. We stare certainly not done.

0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:49.600
<v Speaker 1>A good reminder that we are still in it right.

0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:52.720
<v Speaker 1>The President just testing negative today. Andrew Collins is a

0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:55.680
<v Speaker 1>president and CEO of Centian a Jet. He's with us

0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:58.520
<v Speaker 1>right now in the Bloomberg interactive at Broker Studio. Andrew,

0:15:58.520 --> 0:15:59.840
<v Speaker 1>it's been a while since we've seen you. It's good

0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:01.360
<v Speaker 1>to have you back with us. How are you. I'm

0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:03.000
<v Speaker 1>doing great and it's great to be back here in

0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:05.080
<v Speaker 1>the student Thanks for having me. Hey, give us you know,

0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:06.760
<v Speaker 1>I want to talk about sustainability and what you guys

0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:08.360
<v Speaker 1>are doing there, because there's some really cool stuff. But

0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:10.480
<v Speaker 1>first I want to get an idea of what you're

0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:12.480
<v Speaker 1>seeing as you look across the landscape right now. And

0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:15.680
<v Speaker 1>to Carroll's point, we saw private jet travel demand really

0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:19.080
<v Speaker 1>shoot higher during the pandemic. Is people you know thought

0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:20.600
<v Speaker 1>that this was a good way to keep them safe.

0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:23.600
<v Speaker 1>Are you seeing that demand remains strong right now? We

0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:28.040
<v Speaker 1>are so. Um. We we saw the addressable market expand

0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:31.040
<v Speaker 1>per se right. A lot of hidden people, hidden customers

0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:33.880
<v Speaker 1>that you know, really took a pandemic to bring them out.

0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:36.160
<v Speaker 1>They might have been a little fiscally conservative, or they

0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:38.720
<v Speaker 1>might have thought about the sustainability issue, but at the

0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:41.160
<v Speaker 1>end of the day, they came out and products like ours.

0:16:41.200 --> 0:16:43.240
<v Speaker 1>We invented the jet cards, so you pre buy twenty

0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:46.920
<v Speaker 1>five hours at a time. When you utilize a service

0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:48.720
<v Speaker 1>like that, you tend to get used to it. And

0:16:48.800 --> 0:16:52.200
<v Speaker 1>so I don't think all the new entrants that came

0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:54.760
<v Speaker 1>in and the expanded you know, amount of and the

0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:58.080
<v Speaker 1>velocity by which you know, the volume came I don't

0:16:58.080 --> 0:17:01.280
<v Speaker 1>know that that will remain exactly as it stands. But

0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:04.000
<v Speaker 1>a good portion of it is we're very busy this summer.

0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:08.120
<v Speaker 1>Despite you know, raising rates and fuel surcharges and everything else,

0:17:08.160 --> 0:17:11.360
<v Speaker 1>there is a voracious appetite for flying and traveling. Right now,

0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:14.080
<v Speaker 1>are you back to pre pandemic levels? We are well

0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:17.119
<v Speaker 1>passed pre pandemic levels really, And is most of it

0:17:17.240 --> 0:17:21.000
<v Speaker 1>leisure or is it a combination of leisure? A little tricky,

0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:23.719
<v Speaker 1>A little tricky because it feels like leisure what they

0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:28.240
<v Speaker 1>call it? Now? What is that? I think? I think

0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:29.600
<v Speaker 1>it's a lot like that. Yeah. I go on a

0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:32.720
<v Speaker 1>busits trip and I bring my Yeah, yeah, I think that.

0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:34.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, it used to be I can tell you

0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:38.720
<v Speaker 1>was sixty corporate, it was leisure, etcetera. Now it's very

0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:41.520
<v Speaker 1>much hard to track because it's a lot of individuals,

0:17:41.560 --> 0:17:44.240
<v Speaker 1>a lot of individual flying. Uh, they might be just

0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:46.880
<v Speaker 1>expensing it. You have no idea. In some cases, you'd

0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:48.240
<v Speaker 1>have to look at kind of time of day and

0:17:48.280 --> 0:17:50.879
<v Speaker 1>what don't know. I mean, a corporate credit card goes through, right,

0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:54.080
<v Speaker 1>doesn't it um Well, because when with our card, you

0:17:54.119 --> 0:17:56.560
<v Speaker 1>actually deposit money and then we just dub it it down,

0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:59.040
<v Speaker 1>so we'll never really know if you're using it for

0:17:59.080 --> 0:18:01.760
<v Speaker 1>business or not unless you did set it up as

0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:05.720
<v Speaker 1>a business account. Okay, but somebody pays, someone does pay

0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:07.480
<v Speaker 1>for it, yeah, and it's a lot of times it's

0:18:07.480 --> 0:18:10.359
<v Speaker 1>a primary customer and it's in their name. So at

0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:12.080
<v Speaker 1>the end of the day, though, you can tell, like

0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:14.000
<v Speaker 1>you can tell certain routes and you can see things

0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:16.800
<v Speaker 1>come back. Titter Borrow's come back a lot, Westchester's come back,

0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:19.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, Van Nye's come back. So there's a lot

0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:21.280
<v Speaker 1>of business travel out there that's almost sneaky, but it's

0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:23.879
<v Speaker 1>definitely happening. It's interesting we're seeing this reversion to the

0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:25.760
<v Speaker 1>mean with a lot of these pandemic plays out there

0:18:25.760 --> 0:18:28.240
<v Speaker 1>in the public markets, whether it's Shopify laying off ten

0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:31.600
<v Speaker 1>percent a thousand people earlier this week, Peloton coming back

0:18:31.640 --> 0:18:34.800
<v Speaker 1>from sky high valuations. Do you anticipate a reversion to

0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:37.000
<v Speaker 1>the mean as we do ease out of the pandemic

0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:39.760
<v Speaker 1>and we and you get back to pre pandemic levels

0:18:39.760 --> 0:18:42.560
<v Speaker 1>which were significantly lower than they are now. People become

0:18:42.560 --> 0:18:47.080
<v Speaker 1>more comfortable on commercial travel. Well, I think that commercial

0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:49.040
<v Speaker 1>has got a long way to go, and that's you know,

0:18:49.240 --> 0:18:53.439
<v Speaker 1>without disrespect to my commercial brethren, but we've had to

0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:58.239
<v Speaker 1>do a bunch of disrespect. Yeah, it's been pretty it's

0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:01.640
<v Speaker 1>been about it's tough, right they You know, the reaction

0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:04.000
<v Speaker 1>up front was to shrink a lot of routes and

0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:05.800
<v Speaker 1>shut a lot of things down. To bring that back

0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:07.680
<v Speaker 1>is really tough. So they're in the process of trying

0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:09.400
<v Speaker 1>to figure that out. But there's a lot of people

0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:11.440
<v Speaker 1>that left the airline industry and they're not coming back,

0:19:11.560 --> 0:19:13.960
<v Speaker 1>or pilots and crews retired, so there's a lot of

0:19:14.000 --> 0:19:16.880
<v Speaker 1>challenges there. Over in Europe, it's even worse. So right

0:19:16.880 --> 0:19:21.280
<v Speaker 1>now you're seeing private jetscent year over your growth, uh

0:19:21.440 --> 0:19:23.800
<v Speaker 1>due to the fact that it's just very difficult to

0:19:23.840 --> 0:19:27.360
<v Speaker 1>travel throughout Europe. And uh, now, I don't I don't

0:19:27.359 --> 0:19:30.919
<v Speaker 1>know that I see a lot of return yet. It

0:19:31.040 --> 0:19:32.919
<v Speaker 1>just doesn't feel like that. It feels like in the

0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:35.320
<v Speaker 1>fallen in the winter, especially this peak period, we're gearing

0:19:35.400 --> 0:19:37.040
<v Speaker 1>up for a very big peak period during the winter.

0:19:37.200 --> 0:19:38.919
<v Speaker 1>Do you have all the workers that you need or

0:19:38.960 --> 0:19:41.800
<v Speaker 1>that you want and or and or Yes, but you're

0:19:41.800 --> 0:19:43.520
<v Speaker 1>gonna have to you're paying up for them big time.

0:19:44.000 --> 0:19:46.320
<v Speaker 1>You have to be very aggressive. So we've done a

0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:48.440
<v Speaker 1>lot of aggressive work. We've done a lot of recruiting.

0:19:48.480 --> 0:19:51.400
<v Speaker 1>We've hired a lot of aggressive We're paying them more,

0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:53.919
<v Speaker 1>and we're talking to a lot more people. You know,

0:19:54.000 --> 0:19:56.280
<v Speaker 1>it takes a lot more to fill oncelot, so we're

0:19:56.320 --> 0:19:58.520
<v Speaker 1>doing a lot. We're also doing that. Everybody can be

0:19:58.560 --> 0:20:00.800
<v Speaker 1>a pilot, no, not every It can be a pilot,

0:20:00.960 --> 0:20:03.359
<v Speaker 1>and so there's a lot of work that goes around

0:20:03.359 --> 0:20:06.120
<v Speaker 1>being a pilot. But to get crews, for instance, yeah,

0:20:06.200 --> 0:20:08.320
<v Speaker 1>you have to you have to pay more, no question. Hey, ed,

0:20:08.320 --> 0:20:10.760
<v Speaker 1>you want to talk on a touch on the sustainability efforts. Sure,

0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:13.600
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned people who have been previously concerned about the

0:20:13.640 --> 0:20:16.119
<v Speaker 1>environmental impact of perhaps traveling private might not have the

0:20:16.160 --> 0:20:19.320
<v Speaker 1>same concerns now. It does emit a lot of c

0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:22.280
<v Speaker 1>R two. I mean we're talking tons and tons per

0:20:22.560 --> 0:20:26.600
<v Speaker 1>single plane per hour literal tons um. What are you

0:20:26.640 --> 0:20:29.600
<v Speaker 1>doing to to offset that and to to to kind

0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:31.560
<v Speaker 1>of um, you know, make customers feel better about their

0:20:31.600 --> 0:20:34.280
<v Speaker 1>environmental impact so that you have a lot of different choices.

0:20:34.560 --> 0:20:36.919
<v Speaker 1>You can do nothing and people will still pay and

0:20:36.960 --> 0:20:39.679
<v Speaker 1>come on and fly. You can do a simple carbon

0:20:39.720 --> 0:20:41.800
<v Speaker 1>offset or you know, a lot of people will offer

0:20:41.840 --> 0:20:44.680
<v Speaker 1>access to a carbon offset service or something like that.

0:20:45.160 --> 0:20:48.280
<v Speaker 1>We actually don't charge our customers and we do three

0:20:49.000 --> 0:20:51.119
<v Speaker 1>off setting. So we invest millions of dollars in the

0:20:51.200 --> 0:20:54.280
<v Speaker 1>background to do emissions offsetting. So we go a little

0:20:54.280 --> 0:20:56.840
<v Speaker 1>bit further. We go into the water vapors, the aerosols

0:20:56.880 --> 0:21:00.560
<v Speaker 1>and nitrous ox sides, the things that actually make the difference. UM.

0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:03.600
<v Speaker 1>I would argue that we probably are doing one of

0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:07.240
<v Speaker 1>the largest sustainability efforts in private aviation, and so we

0:21:07.280 --> 0:21:10.159
<v Speaker 1>do it with a partner. But UM it's not an

0:21:10.200 --> 0:21:13.160
<v Speaker 1>additional cost to our customer, and every flight is offset three.

0:21:13.960 --> 0:21:16.280
<v Speaker 1>So in the first half of the year, we probably

0:21:16.280 --> 0:21:19.200
<v Speaker 1>did the equivalent. If I was to compare it to things, UM,

0:21:19.240 --> 0:21:22.600
<v Speaker 1>it's the equivalent of planting five million trees or providing

0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:25.040
<v Speaker 1>energy to your average you know, town in America for

0:21:25.080 --> 0:21:28.320
<v Speaker 1>a full year. UM it's it's a lot, and we're

0:21:28.359 --> 0:21:30.280
<v Speaker 1>just getting used to it, and we're just learning it,

0:21:30.320 --> 0:21:33.159
<v Speaker 1>and we're just experimenting with things. But we're trying to

0:21:33.200 --> 0:21:35.160
<v Speaker 1>push our industry to do a lot more. I agree,

0:21:35.240 --> 0:21:38.199
<v Speaker 1>push push, push away. UM, I love carbon offsetting. What

0:21:38.240 --> 0:21:41.359
<v Speaker 1>about carbon negative efforts where we're actually reducing the carbon

0:21:41.400 --> 0:21:43.520
<v Speaker 1>in the atmosphere, which many would argue that that's what

0:21:43.600 --> 0:21:45.720
<v Speaker 1>we need to do to save this planet. I think

0:21:45.760 --> 0:21:47.480
<v Speaker 1>that you've got to look at a lot of things.

0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:50.080
<v Speaker 1>You've got to look at sustainable aviation fuel. I think

0:21:50.080 --> 0:21:51.840
<v Speaker 1>you've got to look at a lot of ways to

0:21:52.200 --> 0:21:54.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, one of the offshoots of the pandemic that's

0:21:54.880 --> 0:21:56.919
<v Speaker 1>great is that it's virtual, so you're not doing a

0:21:56.920 --> 0:21:59.359
<v Speaker 1>lot around the office as much and things like that.

0:21:59.440 --> 0:22:01.919
<v Speaker 1>So we're looking at a lot of different ways to

0:22:02.000 --> 0:22:05.800
<v Speaker 1>handle sustainability. I would tell you though, the biggest push

0:22:05.880 --> 0:22:08.280
<v Speaker 1>that can happen is in electric and what they're calling

0:22:08.440 --> 0:22:11.240
<v Speaker 1>V talls. And you know, as a company, we have

0:22:11.240 --> 0:22:14.359
<v Speaker 1>two tolls on order for both you know, Europe and

0:22:14.560 --> 0:22:17.400
<v Speaker 1>North America. When you get those, um, I hope knock

0:22:17.440 --> 0:22:19.760
<v Speaker 1>on wood in four to five years. What's the company

0:22:19.800 --> 0:22:22.840
<v Speaker 1>that you ordered. But is it eventually your whole fleet

0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:25.360
<v Speaker 1>just got about? I don't know. It could be. It's

0:22:25.720 --> 0:22:28.480
<v Speaker 1>definitely a mass transit play, but it's definitely on the horizon.

0:22:28.520 --> 0:22:30.399
<v Speaker 1>But you're feeling the pressure to do that too, right, No,

0:22:30.560 --> 0:22:32.040
<v Speaker 1>I think we're ahead of the curve, to be honest

0:22:32.080 --> 0:22:34.119
<v Speaker 1>with you, love it, love it. I'm so glad you

0:22:34.119 --> 0:22:35.960
<v Speaker 1>went through and so glad you're working on that. Um.

0:22:36.000 --> 0:22:38.040
<v Speaker 1>You're too great to have you in in studio. Great

0:22:38.040 --> 0:22:40.520
<v Speaker 1>to be here. Thank you. Andrew Collins's president and CEO

0:22:40.520 --> 0:22:42.840
<v Speaker 1>of Sentient Jet, joining us here in our interactive broker

0:22:42.920 --> 0:22:51.560
<v Speaker 1>studio journal. Yeah but you let me drive? No, No,

0:22:54.119 --> 0:23:01.520
<v Speaker 1>all right, I want to drive. It's a good question.

0:23:02.200 --> 0:23:11.680
<v Speaker 1>Drive ride to the clothes from Dawn on Bluebird Radio.

0:23:11.920 --> 0:23:15.920
<v Speaker 1>All right, we've got just about just under to leven eleven,

0:23:15.960 --> 0:23:18.439
<v Speaker 1>twelve minutes in the trading day. It's been big day.

0:23:18.480 --> 0:23:20.160
<v Speaker 1>It's a FED day, you hear Charlie break it down.

0:23:20.200 --> 0:23:23.920
<v Speaker 1>We've got stocks just hovering off their best levels of

0:23:23.960 --> 0:23:25.920
<v Speaker 1>the session. So we've seen quite a rally. It looks

0:23:25.920 --> 0:23:28.200
<v Speaker 1>like investors reading what we got from the FED is

0:23:28.280 --> 0:23:30.520
<v Speaker 1>kind of dubbish signals. We'll see if whether or not

0:23:30.800 --> 0:23:33.040
<v Speaker 1>the analysis is truly that. We did see yields back

0:23:33.040 --> 0:23:34.840
<v Speaker 1>down a bit, and we'll see what happens tomorrow. And

0:23:35.080 --> 0:23:37.919
<v Speaker 1>you know, Friday, the day after is often very much

0:23:38.520 --> 0:23:41.200
<v Speaker 1>data later. This week. It's a good point. Let's get

0:23:41.200 --> 0:23:43.719
<v Speaker 1>into it with Randy Watts, whose chief investment strategist at

0:23:43.720 --> 0:23:47.359
<v Speaker 1>O'Neil Global Advisors. Randy joining us on the phone from Miami. Randy,

0:23:47.400 --> 0:23:50.680
<v Speaker 1>how are you? Hey? It's great to hear both your voices,

0:23:50.840 --> 0:23:52.399
<v Speaker 1>and I hope you're well, and I hope we can

0:23:52.440 --> 0:23:55.000
<v Speaker 1>do this in person at some point this fall. Fingers crossed. Hey,

0:23:55.080 --> 0:23:57.000
<v Speaker 1>let's go to Miami, Carol, you will come to your way.

0:23:57.080 --> 0:23:58.960
<v Speaker 1>It sounds pretty good, especially when it's actually your cool

0:23:59.040 --> 0:24:01.919
<v Speaker 1>up here. Hey, Randy, give us your immediate reaction to

0:24:01.920 --> 0:24:03.480
<v Speaker 1>what we just heard from FED chair J. Powell. I

0:24:03.560 --> 0:24:05.560
<v Speaker 1>know you watched the technicals here, but but give us

0:24:05.560 --> 0:24:07.879
<v Speaker 1>your read on on what he had to say. I

0:24:07.920 --> 0:24:10.280
<v Speaker 1>think I think what happened today was exactly down the

0:24:10.280 --> 0:24:13.960
<v Speaker 1>middle of the fairway. It was very anticipated. You got

0:24:13.960 --> 0:24:17.159
<v Speaker 1>the rate increase with the market expected. Marketing expected a

0:24:17.240 --> 0:24:20.200
<v Speaker 1>seventy four chance of a seventy five basis point increase

0:24:20.240 --> 0:24:22.640
<v Speaker 1>today you got that. And if anything, I would say

0:24:22.640 --> 0:24:26.199
<v Speaker 1>the press conference was slightly more dovish in that Powell

0:24:26.320 --> 0:24:27.879
<v Speaker 1>made it very clear that FED is going to be

0:24:27.960 --> 0:24:31.639
<v Speaker 1>data dependent going forward, but he also sort of re

0:24:31.720 --> 0:24:35.439
<v Speaker 1>emphasized the three point four percent rate for FED funds

0:24:35.480 --> 0:24:37.320
<v Speaker 1>for the end of the year. So I would say,

0:24:37.560 --> 0:24:42.280
<v Speaker 1>exactly as the market expected, no surprises, slightly more dovish

0:24:42.320 --> 0:24:45.280
<v Speaker 1>press conference, and that's one of the reasons equities have

0:24:45.440 --> 0:24:48.800
<v Speaker 1>reacted so strongly. And I would note bonds have rallied

0:24:48.840 --> 0:24:53.080
<v Speaker 1>as well. The curve has flattened somewhat with with the

0:24:53.160 --> 0:24:55.679
<v Speaker 1>tenure coming down towards the towards the sort of with

0:24:55.720 --> 0:24:58.040
<v Speaker 1>the two year uh come and come down a bit.

0:24:58.160 --> 0:25:01.840
<v Speaker 1>So I really as expect. Yeah, and I think also Carol,

0:25:01.920 --> 0:25:05.359
<v Speaker 1>it seems like that investors are pretty happy that investors

0:25:05.440 --> 0:25:07.639
<v Speaker 1>or that J. Powell said that we're not currently in

0:25:07.640 --> 0:25:10.480
<v Speaker 1>a recession right now. I mean, reporters tried really hard

0:25:10.520 --> 0:25:12.119
<v Speaker 1>to get that question out of him. Neil Irwin over

0:25:12.160 --> 0:25:14.920
<v Speaker 1>to Axios finally did and we saw stocks move higher

0:25:14.920 --> 0:25:16.960
<v Speaker 1>after that, and he reminded everybody, hey, wait, that's not

0:25:17.000 --> 0:25:19.600
<v Speaker 1>what that's not my responsibility. It's all about my dual mandate.

0:25:19.680 --> 0:25:21.560
<v Speaker 1>It seems like there's a single mandate right now, and

0:25:21.600 --> 0:25:24.560
<v Speaker 1>that's inflation. Well exactly, I have to say, Randy, when

0:25:24.600 --> 0:25:27.199
<v Speaker 1>he said that, wait a minute, we could also, you know,

0:25:27.240 --> 0:25:31.080
<v Speaker 1>start to think about slowing in terms of our rate moves.

0:25:31.160 --> 0:25:33.399
<v Speaker 1>I thought to me that that's very significant. But I

0:25:33.400 --> 0:25:35.760
<v Speaker 1>think you were spot on, Bill Dudley, formerly of the

0:25:35.760 --> 0:25:38.840
<v Speaker 1>New York Fed, the same thing. You know. J Powell

0:25:38.880 --> 0:25:41.960
<v Speaker 1>reminded us several times to that press conference. He came

0:25:42.000 --> 0:25:45.960
<v Speaker 1>back to that June dot pot plot excuse me, dot plot,

0:25:45.960 --> 0:25:49.480
<v Speaker 1>which shows you know, a commitment by the FED to

0:25:49.920 --> 0:25:53.480
<v Speaker 1>continuing on its tightening path. And I think that needs

0:25:53.520 --> 0:25:56.480
<v Speaker 1>to be something that investors kind of just remember that

0:25:56.560 --> 0:25:59.080
<v Speaker 1>he said that if I, if I could add one

0:25:59.119 --> 0:26:02.280
<v Speaker 1>more store. Other sort of important points are he did see,

0:26:02.680 --> 0:26:06.040
<v Speaker 1>did say that he's seeing slowing demanding Q two. They

0:26:06.080 --> 0:26:07.480
<v Speaker 1>did say that they're going to try to stick to

0:26:07.520 --> 0:26:10.679
<v Speaker 1>the balance sheet draw downlet they're currently on UH and

0:26:10.720 --> 0:26:12.760
<v Speaker 1>that they were aiming for a soft landing but that's

0:26:12.880 --> 0:26:15.360
<v Speaker 1>very hard to achieve, and that they think it's necessary

0:26:15.400 --> 0:26:18.399
<v Speaker 1>to slow growth. So, I mean, the FED is definitely

0:26:18.400 --> 0:26:20.600
<v Speaker 1>still on a tightening cycle, but again at the margin,

0:26:20.920 --> 0:26:23.680
<v Speaker 1>slightly more dubbish than than I think, what the what

0:26:23.680 --> 0:26:26.479
<v Speaker 1>what people most feared from that press conference? All right?

0:26:26.520 --> 0:26:29.120
<v Speaker 1>So as investors then like help me out here, because

0:26:29.160 --> 0:26:33.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, I'm kind of tired of all of the

0:26:33.440 --> 0:26:36.200
<v Speaker 1>speculation we've hit bottom. We've not hit bottom. I mean,

0:26:36.520 --> 0:26:38.399
<v Speaker 1>if you are investing in this market, you've got to

0:26:38.400 --> 0:26:40.280
<v Speaker 1>figure out how to put money to work. Should you

0:26:40.320 --> 0:26:42.600
<v Speaker 1>be putting money in the equity universe, should you be

0:26:42.640 --> 0:26:46.440
<v Speaker 1>playing it safer in fixed income? How do you see it? Okay,

0:26:46.480 --> 0:26:48.600
<v Speaker 1>let me say two things. First, I think the minute

0:26:49.040 --> 0:26:52.320
<v Speaker 1>the stock market can identify or see we don't have

0:26:52.400 --> 0:26:53.800
<v Speaker 1>to be there, but can see the end of the

0:26:53.840 --> 0:26:56.639
<v Speaker 1>FED tighten cycle. I think stocks are headed up a

0:26:56.680 --> 0:26:59.159
<v Speaker 1>lot higher. Now, it's unclear we're there yet, but as

0:26:59.160 --> 0:27:01.119
<v Speaker 1>soon as the market star, it's the sense that I

0:27:01.160 --> 0:27:03.560
<v Speaker 1>think equities are going to really take off. In terms

0:27:03.600 --> 0:27:06.440
<v Speaker 1>of where we are right now, a typical bear market

0:27:06.520 --> 0:27:10.160
<v Speaker 1>rally is up about twelve percent. That's kind of where

0:27:10.200 --> 0:27:13.359
<v Speaker 1>we are right now, and so what happens going forward

0:27:13.440 --> 0:27:15.520
<v Speaker 1>is going to be very interesting. We really want to

0:27:15.560 --> 0:27:18.520
<v Speaker 1>see the SMP hold above it's fifty day moving average.

0:27:18.880 --> 0:27:22.040
<v Speaker 1>Right now, it's about three percent above that. It's about

0:27:22.080 --> 0:27:24.639
<v Speaker 1>eight percent away from the two D day. If it

0:27:24.680 --> 0:27:28.159
<v Speaker 1>can stay above that fifty day, we're pretty optimistic. However,

0:27:28.200 --> 0:27:30.480
<v Speaker 1>if it was to pull back and break that fifty day,

0:27:30.760 --> 0:27:33.800
<v Speaker 1>you would then't expect a technical retest down to those

0:27:33.880 --> 0:27:37.679
<v Speaker 1>June lows around thirty six six. I think what's been

0:27:37.760 --> 0:27:41.240
<v Speaker 1>most surprising so far for investors is that earning season

0:27:41.680 --> 0:27:45.360
<v Speaker 1>has been better than expected. It's been better than people's

0:27:45.359 --> 0:27:48.159
<v Speaker 1>worst fears. We've had about thirty six percent of the

0:27:48.280 --> 0:27:53.080
<v Speaker 1>SMP reports so far have beaten, so that is, I think,

0:27:53.119 --> 0:27:56.680
<v Speaker 1>better than what people were worried about. I will note, though,

0:27:56.720 --> 0:28:02.240
<v Speaker 1>that forward estimates for twenty two and three are coming down,

0:28:02.760 --> 0:28:05.840
<v Speaker 1>so the out your numbers are being reduced, but they're

0:28:05.880 --> 0:28:08.399
<v Speaker 1>still showing growth. And I think when you look at

0:28:08.400 --> 0:28:11.439
<v Speaker 1>the reaction on stocks like Microsoft and Google today, you

0:28:11.480 --> 0:28:14.240
<v Speaker 1>can see the relief that earnings are not really collapsing.

0:28:14.320 --> 0:28:16.639
<v Speaker 1>Totally agree. We get two big readings on both Apple

0:28:16.680 --> 0:28:20.239
<v Speaker 1>and Amazon tomorrow and a speaking of Apple, Apple uh

0:28:20.359 --> 0:28:23.159
<v Speaker 1>just crossing the Bloomberg terminal terminal. Apple has enlisted one

0:28:23.160 --> 0:28:25.879
<v Speaker 1>of Lamborghini's top car development managers and a sign that

0:28:25.920 --> 0:28:28.919
<v Speaker 1>it is stepping up work on a self driving electric vehicle.

0:28:29.000 --> 0:28:31.760
<v Speaker 1>This is according to people with knowledge of the situation,

0:28:32.200 --> 0:28:35.679
<v Speaker 1>uh Luigi terra Borelli. He's a twenty year veteran of

0:28:35.720 --> 0:28:37.760
<v Speaker 1>the Italian car maker, so he's going to help lead

0:28:37.800 --> 0:28:40.200
<v Speaker 1>the design of Apple's future vehicle, according to those in

0:28:40.240 --> 0:28:42.280
<v Speaker 1>the know. So, folks, if you didn't know it, the

0:28:42.280 --> 0:28:44.240
<v Speaker 1>ev race it is on. Yeah, I don't expect to

0:28:44.280 --> 0:28:47.440
<v Speaker 1>hear anything on tomorrow's earnings call about this. Uh, they've

0:28:47.480 --> 0:28:49.840
<v Speaker 1>Apple has certainly kept it under wraps. Hey, Randy, I

0:28:49.880 --> 0:28:52.640
<v Speaker 1>want to get back to the FED and and what

0:28:52.760 --> 0:28:56.920
<v Speaker 1>happens if if we don't see inflation come down, because

0:28:57.040 --> 0:28:59.680
<v Speaker 1>we got two months. We got two months until the

0:28:59.680 --> 0:29:01.520
<v Speaker 1>next bad meeting. We're off in August and you know,

0:29:01.560 --> 0:29:03.640
<v Speaker 1>they go to Jackson Hall and we'll hear a bit,

0:29:03.880 --> 0:29:06.000
<v Speaker 1>but at the same time, we're not going to get

0:29:06.000 --> 0:29:10.640
<v Speaker 1>a policy decision for two months. That's true. Obviously, inflation

0:29:10.680 --> 0:29:13.320
<v Speaker 1>is still running very hot. The cp I was, you know,

0:29:13.400 --> 0:29:16.360
<v Speaker 1>nine point one in June year to year, and Powell

0:29:16.520 --> 0:29:18.920
<v Speaker 1>made a point of calling out pc as the feds

0:29:18.920 --> 0:29:21.440
<v Speaker 1>most watch measure. You know, that was six point three

0:29:21.480 --> 0:29:24.280
<v Speaker 1>pc in June, the largest and forty years. So I

0:29:24.320 --> 0:29:27.640
<v Speaker 1>do think we have to start seeing these inflation numbers

0:29:27.680 --> 0:29:30.239
<v Speaker 1>move in the right direction. They don't have to go

0:29:30.560 --> 0:29:33.040
<v Speaker 1>immediately to where the FED wants them, but they've got

0:29:33.040 --> 0:29:35.000
<v Speaker 1>to stop going up and maybe start to go down.

0:29:35.040 --> 0:29:37.320
<v Speaker 1>A little bit at the margin. I am hopeful that

0:29:37.760 --> 0:29:41.040
<v Speaker 1>last month was the peak inflation month. We have seen

0:29:41.080 --> 0:29:43.920
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of a decline in both food commodities

0:29:44.280 --> 0:29:47.480
<v Speaker 1>and an energy prices recently. That should translate to a

0:29:47.560 --> 0:29:51.880
<v Speaker 1>less hot number in July and hopefully August. But you're right,

0:29:51.920 --> 0:29:54.400
<v Speaker 1>and he was very clear in the press conference. If

0:29:54.400 --> 0:29:56.800
<v Speaker 1>the numbers coming hot in July and August, you could

0:29:56.800 --> 0:29:59.760
<v Speaker 1>be looking at another sevent basis points in September. Market

0:29:59.800 --> 0:30:02.240
<v Speaker 1>would not like that. That could That's what could set

0:30:02.320 --> 0:30:05.760
<v Speaker 1>up a move back towards that thirty six thirty six low.

0:30:06.240 --> 0:30:08.800
<v Speaker 1>But I'm optimistic that that's not going to happen. We're

0:30:08.800 --> 0:30:10.640
<v Speaker 1>gonna see a little bit of an improvement and the

0:30:10.640 --> 0:30:12.719
<v Speaker 1>market can keep grinding its way higher as long as

0:30:12.720 --> 0:30:15.320
<v Speaker 1>there's no surprise. Yeah, there's inflationary pressures. It's something we're

0:30:15.320 --> 0:30:17.800
<v Speaker 1>going to be putting to the Tchipotle CEO Brian Nicol

0:30:18.200 --> 0:30:20.000
<v Speaker 1>whether or not, like I'm trying to get an idea,

0:30:20.080 --> 0:30:23.400
<v Speaker 1>we do hear some easy and some of those inflationary pressures.

0:30:23.400 --> 0:30:25.120
<v Speaker 1>But what he is seeing because they have certainly seen

0:30:25.160 --> 0:30:27.240
<v Speaker 1>wages go up at that company, and whether or not

0:30:27.320 --> 0:30:30.600
<v Speaker 1>they continue to see it Um, So, Randy, where don't

0:30:30.680 --> 0:30:33.960
<v Speaker 1>you want to be in this market right now? I

0:30:34.000 --> 0:30:36.240
<v Speaker 1>think that's a tricky question. I think where I want

0:30:36.240 --> 0:30:39.000
<v Speaker 1>to be is really looking to pick up secular growth

0:30:39.040 --> 0:30:42.000
<v Speaker 1>stocks where I feel very good about their prospects long term,

0:30:42.360 --> 0:30:46.120
<v Speaker 1>and I'm not trying to really play a strong economy scenario.

0:30:46.280 --> 0:30:48.640
<v Speaker 1>I do think the economy is weakening. I would say

0:30:48.680 --> 0:30:51.680
<v Speaker 1>one thing we should focus on is housing. Obviously, depending

0:30:51.760 --> 0:30:55.080
<v Speaker 1>home sales numbers were very bad. New home sales are bad.

0:30:55.720 --> 0:30:58.640
<v Speaker 1>Housing is about of the U S economy, so it's

0:30:58.640 --> 0:31:01.760
<v Speaker 1>got a big impact lost the whole spectrum. So I

0:31:01.760 --> 0:31:03.400
<v Speaker 1>don't think I want to be playing for a strong

0:31:03.400 --> 0:31:05.760
<v Speaker 1>economy right now. What I really want to do is

0:31:05.800 --> 0:31:09.240
<v Speaker 1>just pick up growth stocks that have pulled back dramatically,

0:31:09.280 --> 0:31:12.600
<v Speaker 1>because when this tightening cycle ends, we're going to get

0:31:12.600 --> 0:31:14.880
<v Speaker 1>an expansion on those names, and I think you're gonna

0:31:14.880 --> 0:31:17.960
<v Speaker 1>be very happy you own them. In interesting So you

0:31:18.000 --> 0:31:20.320
<v Speaker 1>mean like an Apple and Amazon? Is that what you're

0:31:20.320 --> 0:31:23.000
<v Speaker 1>talking about? A Microsoft? Is that what you mean? I mean?

0:31:23.040 --> 0:31:25.560
<v Speaker 1>I do think you know, a stock like Google, for example,

0:31:25.600 --> 0:31:27.640
<v Speaker 1>has a little bit of an easier story right now

0:31:27.720 --> 0:31:31.480
<v Speaker 1>than Amazon, where they're slowing consumer spending with regards to Apple,

0:31:31.520 --> 0:31:32.960
<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of that has to do with China.

0:31:33.000 --> 0:31:34.440
<v Speaker 1>They get a lot of their sales in China, and

0:31:34.440 --> 0:31:36.920
<v Speaker 1>I think this question of how those sales been given

0:31:36.960 --> 0:31:40.120
<v Speaker 1>the lockdowns we've seen some of the major cities over there. Obviously,

0:31:40.160 --> 0:31:42.360
<v Speaker 1>longer term we really like it, but I would probably

0:31:42.440 --> 0:31:44.160
<v Speaker 1>try to be looking for companies where the story was

0:31:44.200 --> 0:31:46.520
<v Speaker 1>a little bit easier, a little bit less controversial, or

0:31:46.560 --> 0:31:48.960
<v Speaker 1>maybe the numbers have come down slightly, but it's been

0:31:48.960 --> 0:31:52.880
<v Speaker 1>more of evaluation pullback. Obviously evaluations were stretched. But when

0:31:52.920 --> 0:31:54.760
<v Speaker 1>you look at the market right now, it's trading about

0:31:54.800 --> 0:31:58.800
<v Speaker 1>fifteen times three estimate of two sixty four. So I

0:31:58.840 --> 0:32:00.800
<v Speaker 1>think this is a good time for long term investors

0:32:00.840 --> 0:32:03.520
<v Speaker 1>to start to accumulate stocks again. Once we get to

0:32:03.560 --> 0:32:05.440
<v Speaker 1>the end of this rate rate cycle, I think equities

0:32:05.440 --> 0:32:08.040
<v Speaker 1>are going a lot higher. Yeah, alright, great stuff, And

0:32:08.040 --> 0:32:10.400
<v Speaker 1>it's interesting what you said about housing. Diane Swak earlier

0:32:10.400 --> 0:32:13.120
<v Speaker 1>on TV. She's over at KPMG, she's the chief economist.

0:32:13.200 --> 0:32:15.280
<v Speaker 1>She said housing is the canary in the coal mine.

0:32:15.360 --> 0:32:19.640
<v Speaker 1>It's not singing anymore. Randy Watts, so great, chief investment

0:32:19.640 --> 0:32:23.560
<v Speaker 1>strategist at O'Neil Global Advisors. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg

0:32:23.560 --> 0:32:27.240
<v Speaker 1>Business Week, download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg

0:32:27.280 --> 0:32:29.120
<v Speaker 1>dot com, and you can also listen to our radio

0:32:29.160 --> 0:32:31.720
<v Speaker 1>show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch

0:32:31.840 --> 0:32:34.200
<v Speaker 1>us on YouTube. Sarah to Bloomberg Global News