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Speaker 1: Welcome back everybody. It's a college football betting show on

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros. I'm your host, Scott Bogman. Follow me on

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Speaker 1: the Twitter at Boglin Sports. I am joined as always

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Speaker 1: by Thor Nystrom at thor ku on the Twitter machine.

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Speaker 1: We are already up to week eight, Thor. The season

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Speaker 1: is moving at a fast and furious pace. We are

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Speaker 1: here to talk about some bets. We've got the early

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Speaker 1: matchups for Thursday Friday. We've got games with ninety five

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Speaker 1: percent of the cash on one way or the other.

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Speaker 1: We got the top five games, and then of course

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Speaker 1: at the end we will ask Thor what his favorite

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Speaker 1: pick or picks, maybe one or two games at the

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Speaker 1: end here, but Thor, how to week seven treat you?

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Speaker 2: Week seven was awful for me?

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Speaker 1: Is my worst week, my first one below five hundred

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Speaker 1: ONLL my picks. But We're gonna bounce back in week eight,

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Speaker 1: so I'm ready for it. But I'm ready to put

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Speaker 1: week seven to bet.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well it was. First of all, it was a

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Speaker 3: great weekend of games.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the theater of the whole thing from start

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Speaker 4: to finish was fabulous.

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Speaker 3: It was.

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Speaker 4: It was one of the few weeks so far this

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Speaker 4: this year on Saturday, where year you don't have enough screens.

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Speaker 4: However many screens you've given yourself, You're like, I'm still

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Speaker 4: too short, you know, because there's especially that two thirty slot,

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Speaker 4: and there was just so many things going on, and

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Speaker 4: you had the epic of course Tennessee Alabama game. Just

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Speaker 4: a fabulous weekend a college football I'm starting to heat

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Speaker 4: up in my column, so I'm happy about.

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Speaker 3: That too, and excited to get into Weekgate.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be it's gonna be a fun one.

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Speaker 1: And these first games that we hit here, we always

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Speaker 1: hit Thursday Friday games first, and I know you like

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Speaker 1: two of these games a ton, so I'll just run

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Speaker 1: through them real quick and then I will hand it

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Speaker 1: over to you. Georgia Tech minus three at home against

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Speaker 1: Virginia forty seven is the over. South Alabama is a

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Speaker 1: three point home favorite against Troy forty six and a

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Speaker 1: half is the total on that one.

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Speaker 2: Those are on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: Two games on Friday, Tulsa by thirteen at Temple fifty

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Speaker 1: two and a half is the total on that one,

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Speaker 1: and Western Kentucky is a one and a half point

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Speaker 1: favorite against UAB fifty seven and a half is the

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Speaker 1: total in that one.

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Speaker 2: And I know there are.

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Speaker 1: A couple games here in particular that you like, so

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Speaker 1: thor which ones are they out of these four?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess we'll start on Thursday.

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Speaker 4: This one I don't like quite as much as the

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Speaker 4: other one, but I like it enough where it made

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Speaker 4: my column of my top ten bets this week. I

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Speaker 4: am going to hold my nose and buy a ticket

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Speaker 4: on Virginia getting the three points against Georgia Tech.

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Speaker 3: You have to hold your nose because.

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Speaker 4: Virginia has been a huge disappointment and they have the

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Speaker 4: worst against the spread record and the nation are tied

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Speaker 4: for it. They've only covered one game this season. But

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Speaker 4: Georgia Tech this I mean, if we were talking about

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Speaker 4: this last hour, but if it's possible for a two

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Speaker 4: win team to have a letdown spot, this would be

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Speaker 4: the situation where it would happen. Georgia Tech fires Jeff

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Speaker 4: Collins and since then they have won two straight games

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Speaker 4: as outright underdogs.

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Speaker 3: In this one, can you get the same level of performance.

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Speaker 4: That you did in the past two feels unsustain to me,

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Speaker 4: feels like a letdown spot is coming that this would

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Speaker 4: seem to line up well for it so, so you know,

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Speaker 4: selling high on them, and meanwhile, on the others the

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Speaker 4: other side, with Virginia, you almost can't buy him any

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Speaker 4: lower than this. So you have the two things going

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Speaker 4: against each other that the offensive lines on both sides stink,

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Speaker 4: the pass rushers on both sides are solid. Both teams

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Speaker 4: average exactly two and a half sacks per game, So

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Speaker 4: those things, to me sort of nullify each other. I

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Speaker 4: think this game is going to lean skew heavily towards

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Speaker 4: the run game on both sides, and that's where Virginia

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Speaker 4: has an enormous advantage.

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Speaker 3: They run the ball better than Georgia Tech, and they

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Speaker 3: defend the run far better than Georgia Tech duds. Again,

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna hold my nose and I'm gonna take those

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Speaker 3: points with Virginia live doc and then the other one.

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Speaker 3: Moving to Friday, the game that I like more is

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Speaker 3: UAB against Western Kentucky. You know, the line's been two

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Speaker 3: and a half all week.

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Speaker 4: You know, I guess in the past couple of hours

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Speaker 4: it might have taggled down in a couple bucks to

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Speaker 4: two one and a half. I don't care. I don't

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Speaker 4: care what the spread is. I think UAB is going

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Speaker 4: to win this game, so it doesn't really matter to me.

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Speaker 4: It's certainly not going to even get up to UAB

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Speaker 4: minus three even if it crosses the threshold. Western Kentucky

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Speaker 4: is one of the most matchup specific teams in all

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Speaker 4: of college football, of all the one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 4: one teams. It's when you're handicapping their games, the opponent

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Speaker 4: matter is not them, you know, in terms of lining

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Speaker 4: up against their strengths and their weaknesses. Western Kentucky spread

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Speaker 4: throwing team that throws the ball very good, not quite

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Speaker 4: as good as they did last year when they had

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Speaker 4: the rookie sensation Belly Zappi running their offense, but they

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Speaker 4: their passing attack is It's very good objectively, either top

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Speaker 4: twenty or top twenty five in the entire nation, both

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Speaker 4: efficient and explosive. Opposing pass defense can can hold it

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Speaker 4: down a little bit because Western Kentucky can't run. And

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Speaker 4: then on the other side, Western Kentucky their secondary is

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Speaker 4: very good, but their front seven is not. They get

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Speaker 4: blown off the ball. So you want to play on

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Speaker 4: Western Kentucky when they're facing teams that can only throw

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Speaker 4: and can't run and can't defend the pass that was

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Speaker 4: Middle Tennessee last week. That's why we were on Western Kentucky,

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Speaker 4: why we laid the touchdown plus on them, and they

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Speaker 4: covered easily. This is a totally different scenario against UAB.

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Speaker 4: Uab strengths are all of Western Kentucky's weaknesses. Western Kentucky

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Speaker 4: hates facing the downhill powerful rushing attacks.

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Speaker 3: But that's UAB. They have one of the best ones

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Speaker 3: in the G five.

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Speaker 4: And if you were looking around the G five and

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Speaker 4: trying to find a better secondary than Western Kentucky's, UAB

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Speaker 4: would be one of the names that you come up with.

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Speaker 4: There's not a ton. UAB would certainly be one of them.

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Speaker 4: Uab's pass defense is really really good. Their secondary is good,

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Speaker 4: their pass rush is solid. They're gonna be able to

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Speaker 4: hold down Western Kentucky's passing game certainly to a degree,

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Speaker 4: and they're gonna be able to mercilessly exploit Western Kentucky's

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Speaker 4: run defense. I think UAB is gonna win this game.

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Speaker 4: I don't care what the spread is. I'm taking UAB.

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Speaker 2: I like it interesting games.

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Speaker 1: On a Thursday and a Friday, you have a lean

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Speaker 1: in South Alabama, Troy or Tulsa Temple at all.

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Speaker 4: I was leaning Troy earlier in the week as sort

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Speaker 4: of a contrarian play because South Alabama is banged up

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Speaker 4: and South Alabama their worst thing is passing explosion from

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Speaker 4: the other team, and that's what of Troy's best things.

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Speaker 4: But Troy is a team that I don't trust as

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Speaker 4: far as I can throw them, and South Alabama has

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Speaker 4: been a trustworthy team so far this year. So outside

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Speaker 4: of that one thing, and then my my sort of

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Speaker 4: trepidation of hopping in on the one side or the other,

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Speaker 4: that's why I'm staying away from it. But I would

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Speaker 4: lean Troy because I think they can exploit South Alabama's

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Speaker 4: biggest weakness. Again, it's gonna be a contrarian play because

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Speaker 4: the public's on South Alabama, but Troy taking the small

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Speaker 4: amount of points would be. If I had to pick one.

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Speaker 2: Side, Tulsa, Temple anything there.

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Speaker 3: In that game.

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Speaker 4: The last line I saw on it was Tulsa minus thirteen.

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Speaker 4: My line on that game is Tulsa minus ten and

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Speaker 4: Temple I think will be able to hold down the

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Speaker 4: Tulsa offense.

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Speaker 2: And maybe but like your nose, right, Yeah, Well.

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Speaker 4: I helped my nose last week when Temple was playing

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Speaker 4: U c F. You know, it wasn't an official play

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Speaker 4: for me, but like you know, it was a week

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Speaker 4: night game again, so I got yeah exactly. And and Temple,

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Speaker 4: like you know, their offense, it's it's an abomination, but

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Speaker 4: their defense is solid, specifically the run defense. And so

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Speaker 4: like I was following sort of the same line in

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Speaker 4: in my action bet on on Temple and Temple got

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Speaker 4: steamrolled their their pass defense definitely is not as good

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Speaker 4: as their run defense, and U seef even though they

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Speaker 4: have a quarterback that I again don't trusts as far

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Speaker 4: as I could throw them in John Reee plumbing in

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Speaker 4: terms of throwing the ball, he was able to throw

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Speaker 4: on on the on the Temple pass defense, which opened

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Speaker 4: up the run game, which initially, you know they had

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Speaker 4: to sort of go go go, but then all of a.

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Speaker 1: Sudden where well not so rare this these days, but

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Speaker 1: throw to run game exactly.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: And then and then Temple at that point, you know,

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Speaker 4: they had to put guys back. It's like, oh, John

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Speaker 4: Reith Flumen can actually you know, beat us through the air.

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Speaker 4: And then at that point they were giving up explosive

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Speaker 4: runs stuff like that. For those like I couldn't take

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Speaker 4: Tulsa late as many points as you have to here,

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Speaker 4: but I'm not taking Temple after I followed the same

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Speaker 4: line of thought to get there on an action bat

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Speaker 4: last week.

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Speaker 3: Stay away from me.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: So on the big money games here, we'll start with

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Speaker 1: the spreads that have ninety five percent more of cash.

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Speaker 1: And this is as of you know, Wednesday afternoon. So

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Speaker 1: obviously these totals are going to change. But we have

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Speaker 1: some bigger discrepancies than we've had in the past in

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Speaker 1: terms of the cash and the tickets in these four games. Specifically,

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Speaker 1: most of the totals that we'll get to we have

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Speaker 1: four on each side, but most of the totals we

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Speaker 1: get to are much closer, except for one is way different.

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Speaker 1: But we start out NIU minus three at Ohio is

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Speaker 1: at ninety five percent, but the tickets were closer to

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Speaker 1: fifty percent at fifty six A Grin plus eighteen and

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Speaker 1: a half at Kent State. Acron is bad, but so

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Speaker 1: is Kent State ninety seven percent of the cash on Akron,

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Speaker 1: but only fifty one percent of tickets col plus seven

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Speaker 1: and a half against Washington almost one hudred percent ninety

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Speaker 1: nine percent of cash but less than fifty percent of

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Speaker 1: the tickets forty eight percent of the ticket so fifty

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Speaker 1: two percent on Washington and then Hawaii plus five and

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Speaker 1: a half another one at Colorado State, Uh ninety six

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Speaker 1: percent cash, but fifty three percent of the tickets. So

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Speaker 1: for four games with a lot of cash on one side,

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Speaker 1: which tells me is probably someone betting enormous on these games,

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Speaker 1: one or two people betting on that side of the game,

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Speaker 1: and the tickets are closer to fifty to fifty on

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Speaker 1: all of them.

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Speaker 2: Uh So what do you think about these games?

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Speaker 1: Is there anyone that you have a lean on towards

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Speaker 1: the cash or away from the cash.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is always one of my favorite segments we

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Speaker 4: do because I you know, this is the first time

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Speaker 4: I see these and it's always interesting to see, you know,

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Speaker 4: I mean, like, you know, the the money in and

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Speaker 4: then the tickets bought. It's usually where you get the

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Speaker 4: discrepancy of the sharps against the squares, So it's always

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Speaker 4: interesting to see where that falls. That the n I

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Speaker 4: U Ohio game, I had initially sort of leaned an

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Speaker 4: IU because I think there advanced metrics don't flatter them

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Speaker 4: to the degree they should because Rocky Lombardi came back

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Speaker 4: last week, and that was one where it was frustrating

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Speaker 4: because nobody had reported that Rocky Lombardy was gonna, you know, play.

224
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Speaker 2: In that last week right there, I picked Michigan so same.

225
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Speaker 4: I mean, like all the reports you got is you know,

226
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Speaker 4: Rocky Lombardy is gonna be out either you know, into

227
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Speaker 4: November or oh for the season. And then all of

228
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Speaker 4: a sudden you just shows up and and and he's playing,

229
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Speaker 4: and i U is a different team with Rocky Lombardy

230
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Speaker 4: against I believe his name is Ethan Hampton. Enormous upgrade

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Speaker 4: when you when you get Rocky Lombardi. But if I'd

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Speaker 4: known that Rocky Lombardy was was gonna be starting that game,

233
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Speaker 4: I wouldn't bet on Eastern Michigan. But in this one,

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Speaker 4: you know you're gonna get them, and IU is gonna

235
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Speaker 4: tick way back up, right, But Ohio they've ticked up,

236
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Speaker 4: just not like their team is better than we thought

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Speaker 4: it was gonna be over the offseason. Ohio's defense stinks,

238
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Speaker 4: but they can move the ball, certainly on any MAC

239
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Speaker 4: defense and the ball and several Power five teams I

240
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Speaker 4: think as well. I really like Ohio's offense. I hate

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Speaker 4: their defense and you tick them up, but like I

242
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Speaker 4: couldn't get there. On the side, My bigger lean in

243
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Speaker 4: that game is on the total. My my systems total

244
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Speaker 4: in this game is seventy seven and a half. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: the you know it's in the mid sixties live, it's

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Speaker 4: not you would think that these teams play faster than

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Speaker 4: they actually do. So it's not about tempo. Neither of

248
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Speaker 4: these teams in the top ninety and adjusted tempo. But

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Speaker 4: the offenses are so good and the defense is stink

250
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Speaker 4: on both sides. Ohio's is particularly bad. But and I use,

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Speaker 4: it's not good either. And like I said, Ohio's offense

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Speaker 4: really good. And then and I use, when you get

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Speaker 4: Lombardi back, all of a sudden everything works again, right,

254
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Speaker 4: Like the defense has to respect the pass, so the

255
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Speaker 4: run game now, all of a sudden it is viable again. Well,

256
00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:13,000
Speaker 4: the passing attack ticks way up. So I mean, mi

257
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Speaker 4: leand in that game would be the over and not

258
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Speaker 4: necessarily the side the Akron that was the one I

259
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Speaker 4: was started grinning about when you were going through. What's

260
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Speaker 4: so interesting to me about that is and I wouldn't

261
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Speaker 4: have necessarily predicted this, but the sharps in the market,

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Speaker 4: and I think you know, I've talked about this with

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Speaker 4: you the past couple weeks. I've talked about this with

264
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Speaker 4: Thomas the past couple of weeks, and paraoh the past

265
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Speaker 4: couple weeks.

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Speaker 3: The sharps in.

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Speaker 4: The market have been way in on Ken State the

268
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Speaker 4: last two weeks, like, in my opinion, beyond any rational thought,

269
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Speaker 4: where they were adjusting the line to the point where

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Speaker 4: you know, two weeks ago is Miami, Ohio. Last week

271
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Speaker 4: goes Toledo, the Miami of Ohio. That was the one

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Speaker 4: where they adjusted it so far.

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Speaker 3: The other way.

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Speaker 4: I was like, I gotta be missing something because my

275
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Speaker 4: system was showing ten points a line value or more

276
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Speaker 4: on Miami of Ohio.

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Speaker 3: Miami of Ohio ends up winning that game out right.

278
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Speaker 4: The sharps get behind Kent State again last week against Toledo,

279
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Speaker 4: and I and my system both loved Toledo and and

280
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Speaker 4: that one you couldn't fool me again. I was like,

281
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Speaker 4: you know, it's not something I don't know, it's just people.

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Speaker 4: You know, the sharps in the market. The money in

283
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Speaker 4: the market is going behind them.

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Speaker 3: Whatever. I disagree in this one, it's flipping, and it's

285
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Speaker 3: flipping to a team that stinks. In Akron.

286
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Speaker 4: Of course you're getting the eighteen and a half points,

287
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Speaker 4: but Akron they're not playing offense the way. It's not

288
00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:37,600
Speaker 4: just the talent they're not. Jomo usually plays with a

289
00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:40,600
Speaker 4: faster tempo, but he's had to sort of toggle things back.

290
00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,120
Speaker 4: You know, it's his first year there whatever, and I

291
00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:46,679
Speaker 4: assume that the personnel is not learning his system is

292
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Speaker 4: as quick as he had hoped, and so you know,

293
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Speaker 4: he's not able to completely open the playbook up or

294
00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:56,679
Speaker 4: open the the chematic stuff with the getting them on

295
00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,440
Speaker 4: their heels with the tempo stuff like that. I haven't

296
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Speaker 4: loved it, you know, how to Actron Kent State is

297
00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:05,000
Speaker 4: greatly underwhelmed that the last couple of weeks in terms

298
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Speaker 4: of how the market perceived them. That one's interesting, but

299
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Speaker 4: I don't have a play on that one. I also

300
00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,960
Speaker 4: don't have a play on Call and Washington. I have

301
00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:15,440
Speaker 4: a better feel for cal than I do for Washington.

302
00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:19,320
Speaker 4: I'm still trying to get my finger on Washington. Obviously

303
00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:21,720
Speaker 4: the offense you respect that, Yeah.

304
00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:24,360
Speaker 2: Well, Washington is trying to get a hold on Washington

305
00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:26,000
Speaker 2: right now. They don't know, and.

306
00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:28,560
Speaker 3: Can they defend anyone or will it matter here? Right?

307
00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:32,120
Speaker 3: Like Cal's only singular offensive players.

308
00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:34,880
Speaker 4: That kid that they said the true freshman where yeah,

309
00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,160
Speaker 4: they ran into one, you know, and then they got

310
00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:41,560
Speaker 4: a playmaker. But like the big the hugest concern, I mean,

311
00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:44,600
Speaker 4: there's a lot of concerns on the defensive side for Washington.

312
00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:46,240
Speaker 4: I don't want to just single one out, but like

313
00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:49,080
Speaker 4: one of the enormous ones, it's the secondary, right Like

314
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Speaker 4: after they lost a procession of NFL defensive backs the

315
00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,840
Speaker 4: last couple of years to the NFL. The secondary has

316
00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,400
Speaker 4: been real bad this year after it was elite the

317
00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:00,440
Speaker 4: last couple of years. You can throw on them pretty

318
00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,440
Speaker 4: Cal ain't gonna throw on anybody that's that's not They're game.

319
00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:05,120
Speaker 4: They're gonna have to run a little bit. They should

320
00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:08,120
Speaker 4: have success in doing that. But Cal also has a

321
00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:11,520
Speaker 4: solid defense, so can they suppress that. The Washington scoring

322
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Speaker 4: enough to keep it close obviously the market thing, so

323
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Speaker 4: I'm not touching that one because Washington is all over

324
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Speaker 4: the place and I can't.

325
00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:19,800
Speaker 3: Get a feel on them.

326
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Speaker 1: The Cal lost to Colorado last weeken overtime. I can't

327
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Speaker 1: believe that was one of my three I got right too,

328
00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,120
Speaker 1: and uh I picked the under in that game and

329
00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:32,000
Speaker 1: it went to overtime and I still got it.

330
00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:39,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, certainly for the final result was shocking. Absolutely, But yeah,

331
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:41,920
Speaker 4: that that under I was on as well and was

332
00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:44,440
Speaker 4: one of those that just jumped out to you where

333
00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,920
Speaker 4: the number was just bad. In this one, I don't

334
00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:50,640
Speaker 4: think that the total is off to that degree. And

335
00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:53,360
Speaker 4: obviously it's a different sort of thing because Washington.

336
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Speaker 2: When points exactly.

337
00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:58,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'm gonna stay away from that one.

338
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Speaker 4: The I love it with the sharps pick a side

339
00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:03,880
Speaker 4: on on on the crap Bowl games, the Hawaii against

340
00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:08,080
Speaker 4: Colorado State because because they tend to do that, Man,

341
00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:10,840
Speaker 4: someone out there has got more conviction than me, because

342
00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:12,800
Speaker 4: I've tried a couple of times on these crap balls

343
00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:14,480
Speaker 4: to go one way or the other. I did hit

344
00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:16,560
Speaker 4: it right a couple of weeks ago in that epic

345
00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:18,800
Speaker 4: was it Thursday or Friday night game? I forget, but

346
00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:20,880
Speaker 4: when it was Colorado State against Nevada.

347
00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:24,960
Speaker 2: But that was like, I definitely didn't watch that one. O.

348
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,960
Speaker 4: You missed out, Scott, you missed Yeah, it was. It

349
00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:33,800
Speaker 4: was an epic game of ineptitude on both sides. This one,

350
00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,640
Speaker 4: Hawaii's playing a bit better and Colorado State has shown

351
00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:40,240
Speaker 4: no signs of life outside of Nevada facilitating the win

352
00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:41,800
Speaker 4: for them, and in that one game a couple of

353
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,040
Speaker 4: couple of times ago. Colorado State, though, has gotten people back.

354
00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:48,600
Speaker 4: We'll see if they can ever get up to not

355
00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:50,880
Speaker 4: up to snuff with what Norbelle was used to when

356
00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,240
Speaker 4: he was at you know, I mean, going back just

357
00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:56,680
Speaker 4: as recently as as last you know, December, he had

358
00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:59,520
Speaker 4: Carson Strong, Romeo Dubes, you know, go on and on.

359
00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,080
Speaker 4: He had this explosive offense. This Colorado States and can't

360
00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:03,880
Speaker 4: move the ball on anybody, in part because of the

361
00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,360
Speaker 4: offensive line. The injuries they had earlier in the year

362
00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:08,840
Speaker 4: were so bad. They've gotten some of those kids back,

363
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,280
Speaker 4: so you expect eventually that the thing to tick up

364
00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:13,280
Speaker 4: a little bit. But they were awful on offense, even

365
00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:15,680
Speaker 4: in that game against Nevada where I happened to win,

366
00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:17,920
Speaker 4: you know, I mean, they went outright as an underdog,

367
00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:21,000
Speaker 4: but that was because the Nevada offense again was facilitating

368
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:24,040
Speaker 4: opportunities for It wasn't because Colorado State blew up offensively.

369
00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:26,960
Speaker 4: Hawaii is actually, I mean, these past couple weeks they've

370
00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,480
Speaker 4: actually played better. They're actually starting to show them things.

371
00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,879
Speaker 4: They've decided on Schrager as their quarterback. They're able to

372
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:36,240
Speaker 4: run the ball a little bit now, knock on wood,

373
00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,399
Speaker 4: we'll see. Let you know, get in the five and

374
00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:42,080
Speaker 4: a half. I guess I can see where the Sharps

375
00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:44,760
Speaker 4: are going with that With Hawaii. I'm not sure i'd

376
00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:46,520
Speaker 4: want to lay five and a half points with Colorado

377
00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:49,679
Speaker 4: State team that can't move the ball on offense. But

378
00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:51,800
Speaker 4: these are, you know, two of the four worst teams

379
00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:55,320
Speaker 4: in the FBS. Yeah, you're yeah, you're sort of trying to.

380
00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:57,920
Speaker 1: It's funny that all the tickets are one way or

381
00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:00,320
Speaker 1: the other, because I mean, I just assumed that if

382
00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,000
Speaker 1: tickets on this game were somewhere, it'd be on the under.

383
00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:08,560
Speaker 1: You know, Yeah, I just both bad offenses. Let's just

384
00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:11,320
Speaker 1: take the under. But I think the under in that

385
00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:15,200
Speaker 1: game is fairly low. It's one of those where forty

386
00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:16,120
Speaker 1: six and a half.

387
00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:20,119
Speaker 4: Yeah, and my adjustment one is fifty. So it's like

388
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:21,520
Speaker 4: it's hard for me to do that either. But like,

389
00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:23,240
Speaker 4: I don't trust you that the offense is either.

390
00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:25,600
Speaker 1: As soon as you convince yourself this game is going

391
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,560
Speaker 1: to go under. Then you go, well, what about turnovers,

392
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,359
Speaker 1: Like there could easily easily be some stupid fumble that

393
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:33,680
Speaker 1: goes for a touchdown, orf that goes for a touchdown,

394
00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,200
Speaker 1: and and that way it sneaks a back door cover

395
00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 1: on the over and I you know, I can't. I

396
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:42,840
Speaker 1: don't like betting in aptitude unless it's way under. You know,

397
00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:46,040
Speaker 1: Colorado and cal we did last week.

398
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,280
Speaker 3: So I like it when it's the only game on

399
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:49,560
Speaker 3: at the time that you can watch.

400
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:50,440
Speaker 2: That's true.

401
00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:51,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, get into it.

402
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:53,879
Speaker 4: It's like a Scorsese movie that has like, you know,

403
00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 4: eight different acts that Colorado State Devada game with chefs kiss,

404
00:18:58,040 --> 00:18:58,639
Speaker 4: but this one.

405
00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:01,800
Speaker 1: He's calling to m night sham movie because maybe this

406
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:04,600
Speaker 1: is really good and close and fun, or maybe it's

407
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:06,320
Speaker 1: just a crappy movie.

408
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:09,080
Speaker 3: Now bad end color out of State. What was that movie?

409
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 3: Was It called The Room?

410
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:14,000
Speaker 4: You know several years ago that was so bad it

411
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,400
Speaker 4: was awesome where I remember there was a movie.

412
00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:19,080
Speaker 2: Uh there, ol j Low or is that The Cell?

413
00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:19,600
Speaker 3: No?

414
00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:23,960
Speaker 4: No, no, that was that was Geelee. I'm just as

415
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,080
Speaker 4: well at tune with crappy movies as I am college

416
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:29,200
Speaker 4: football teams. The Room was was made by this guy

417
00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 4: named Tommy Wissow and nobody knows like how he got

418
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,439
Speaker 4: the money to finance this thing, but he financed it.

419
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:36,480
Speaker 4: And it's it's the worst movie you'll ever see, but

420
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,040
Speaker 4: it's so bad that it's hilarious. And I remember this

421
00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:41,560
Speaker 4: one movie critic had a line where he said, you

422
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:46,280
Speaker 4: could put Martin Scorsese and Steven Spielberg and the you know,

423
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,240
Speaker 4: Ridley Scott and the one hundred best directors of all

424
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 4: time in one room and give them forty years.

425
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:53,199
Speaker 3: To scheme about this.

426
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:54,919
Speaker 4: They would not be able to come up with a

427
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:59,399
Speaker 4: movie as good bad as that one, as good awful

428
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,320
Speaker 4: as that movie was. You couldn't You couldn't make it.

429
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:04,680
Speaker 4: You couldn't strategize to make a movie like that.

430
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 3: Anyhow. That's what cop of games are like usually.

431
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,520
Speaker 4: But I ain't touching this one because I can enjoy

432
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:10,720
Speaker 4: it like a fine wine.

433
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:12,160
Speaker 3: I'm staying away from that one.

434
00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to the totals here. Like I said,

435
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 1: four more totals for you. All for are unders. Most

436
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 1: of them have the same you know, they're in the

437
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:25,440
Speaker 1: same range. They're within ten to twenty percent of the

438
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 1: money and the tickets. So we start with Buffalo Ver

439
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 1: Toledo under fifty eight a ninety percent eighty seven percent,

440
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,800
Speaker 1: Stanford verst Arizona State under fifty four and a half

441
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 1: ninety seven to eighty eight and then Missouri versus Vanderbilt

442
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:40,920
Speaker 1: under fifty two and a half ninety nine to eighty

443
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:44,320
Speaker 1: two percent, the one with the giant difference in cash

444
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 1: to tickets. And once again this is Wednesday. All of

445
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 1: these will be changed tomorrow. We're just talking about early week.

446
00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:57,400
Speaker 1: You know, money here where it's moving. Penn State versus

447
00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 1: Minnesota under forty four and a half is ninety percent under,

448
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:05,400
Speaker 1: but the over is sixty five percent of the tickets.

449
00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 1: So Buffalo of Verslito, Stanford, Arizona State, Missouri Vandy all

450
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 1: under tickets and cash Penn State. Huge discrepancy here. What

451
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 1: do you see in any of these games? But obviously

452
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 1: let's start with this Penn State in Minnesota game that

453
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:22,160
Speaker 1: that feels.

454
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 3: Like a classic.

455
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:26,800
Speaker 4: Someone knows something because I mean the key to that handicapping,

456
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 4: whether it's a total or the side, it's a hell

457
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,160
Speaker 4: status about the quarterbacks, right, Like you know, Clifford had

458
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 4: gotten knocked out of their game last week against Michigan,

459
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:36,919
Speaker 4: and all Lair had to come in and finish the

460
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 4: thing out. And you know that that was a body injury,

461
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 4: whereas Tanner Morgan's he got knocked out again Illinois with

462
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 4: the head injury.

463
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 3: We don't know the status of statuses of those kids.

464
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,639
Speaker 4: I've tried to figure out at least Tanner Morgan's because

465
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 4: you know, I live in Minneapolis and I have a couple.

466
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 2: Of you got a couple of connections, I got a couple.

467
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,200
Speaker 4: Of people I can ask about this, but I have

468
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 4: not yet heard like, you know, he's gonna play. He's

469
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 4: not gonna play the like flex public comments were very positive,

470
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 4: but we know the coaches that say positive things about

471
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 4: a hell status of a player that they know is

472
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:10,439
Speaker 4: not gonna play.

473
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:11,919
Speaker 3: So like, I, you know, I don't. I don't know

474
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 3: that's gonna go.

475
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 4: But I would say, even though I don't have a

476
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 4: you know, idi inside information on this, it seems like

477
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 4: the market believes that Sean Clifford is not gonna play.

478
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 2: And the reason that I say that, ye turn to

479
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 2: practice today.

480
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 3: And we'll see.

481
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 4: You know, we're on Wednesday, right like most teams wanted

482
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 4: the guy back at.

483
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 3: The beginning of the week. We'll see.

484
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:35,400
Speaker 4: But the that line was already felt to me when

485
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 4: it opened a little suspiciously low, and then it came

486
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 4: down even further, uh, towards towards the Minnesota side. I

487
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 4: don't know why that line would come down if not

488
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:46,640
Speaker 4: for the market believing that Tanna Morgan was gonna play

489
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 4: and Clifford was not gonna play. Minnesota struggles to throw

490
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 4: the ball anyway, even with Tanna Morgan. They don't have

491
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:57,880
Speaker 4: any receivers whatsoever. And the backup on Minnesota stinks. I mean,

492
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,879
Speaker 4: maybe someday down the road he'll be Okay, he's not.

493
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:04,679
Speaker 1: It's hard going from Tanner Morgan, four year starter, to

494
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 1: anybody else, right.

495
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, but he'd only thrown like eighteen passing yards

496
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 4: when he got knocked out against Illinois. Like the whole

497
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 4: thing wasn't going. But you know, at least he wasn't

498
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 4: giving the ball to the defense when the kid, I

499
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,680
Speaker 4: don't try to pronounce the name, he got the Greek

500
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 4: class name. But the retro freshman that Minnesota has with

501
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 4: the Greek lass name, he comes in and he was

502
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 4: throwing for.

503
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 3: Just as little yards as Morgan was.

504
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 4: But he also gave the ball to Illinois twice, which

505
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 4: destroyed Minnesota's chances of winning in that fourth quarter. You

506
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 4: can't bet on Minnesota certainly if that's the case. But

507
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 4: if the Greek kids and then you go, you would

508
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 4: lean the under, especially if Clifford is out as well.

509
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 4: But again, I don't have any news about the quarterback status.

510
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 4: I would lean under just because of the uncertainty. But

511
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,199
Speaker 4: I'm just reading market indicators right now, you know, So

512
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 4: you just got on that.

513
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 1: I'm looking at this kid's name. You're absolutely at eighthan

514
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:04,360
Speaker 1: colliachmanas is what it looks like. That That's what I'll

515
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,439
Speaker 1: go with. So, uh, there you go. What about any

516
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 1: of these other games, Like we said, on these other ones,

517
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,119
Speaker 1: the cash and the ticket seemed to be lining up.

518
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 2: Do you have a good lean on any of these other.

519
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 3: Three of the Okay Buffalo and.

520
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 2: In as U and Missouri Vandy.

521
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, the the Buffalo Toledo.

522
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 4: My my systems over under is within a half point

523
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 4: of what it is in Vegas right now, So I

524
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 4: I wouldn't on that one. Stanford and I did look

525
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 4: into this one quite a bit, that the Stanford and

526
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 4: uh Arizona State game. We were talking about this in

527
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:43,440
Speaker 4: the previous hour that I would lean, Yeah, I would

528
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 4: lean Stanford on the side, but like I have too

529
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 4: many questions where I I can't pull the trigger on

530
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:52,879
Speaker 4: the side total. I mean it sort of feels the

531
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:56,679
Speaker 4: same way like my my systems total is two points.

532
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 3: Last and what the Vegas one is right now?

533
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,119
Speaker 4: But like on there was on the State side, it

534
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 4: feels like Emery Jones is going to come back.

535
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 3: Is that an upgrade or downgrade? For that?

536
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 2: It's down grade.

537
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 1: I mean ASU won with the backup, you know, last week,

538
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 1: and I've I've heard some you know, because I used

539
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:16,880
Speaker 1: to live in Arizona, so I got some stuff. I've

540
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 1: heard that some of the players thought that the backup

541
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 1: was better than Emory Jones and they were kind of thinking,

542
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,880
Speaker 1: what are we going with Emery for this other guy's better?

543
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,119
Speaker 1: So the French kid, I think Borgeaux is that his

544
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 1: last name?

545
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 2: Something like that.

546
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 4: You got the you got the pronunciations today, But yeah,

547
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,239
Speaker 4: I mean attempts at least, so yeah, Like and you

548
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 4: know the other thing like Stanford, what what is the

549
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 4: status of their offensive line? You know, they've a guy

550
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 4: shuffle in and out injury concerns all year. Are they

551
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:48,120
Speaker 4: going to get rows back their left tackle. I wouldn't

552
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:52,400
Speaker 4: touch that total. The other one was the other one,

553
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 4: Missouri and Vanderbilt.

554
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, Missouri Vandy under fifty two and a half.

555
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 3: Yeah that one.

556
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 4: My My SYSM total is five points above where it is.

557
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:03,919
Speaker 4: And I don't trust either of those defenses. So I mean,

558
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 4: I guess if I had to lean, it would be

559
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:06,719
Speaker 4: in that direction.

560
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:08,400
Speaker 3: But not a play for me officially.

561
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 1: All right, let's go over to the Big five games

562
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 1: of the week. We got five ranked on RAKE matchups

563
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 1: to talk about here, and let's just start with number

564
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 1: five Clemson thirteen and a half point home favorites against

565
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:26,719
Speaker 1: number fourteen SYRAHC shout out to Thomas here. Forty nine

566
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,159
Speaker 1: and a half is the total on that game. What

567
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:30,679
Speaker 1: do we think of Clemson and qes.

568
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 3: You forgot to say the undefeated Syracuse Orange at all?

569
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not gonna lay it all out like that, you.

570
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 4: Know, Yeah, you know it's far. I mean, both on

571
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,879
Speaker 4: the side and the total of this game. It's for me,

572
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 4: it's too hot to handle. I feel like both the

573
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 4: spread and the total are pretty close. Syracuse plays good defense,

574
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,439
Speaker 4: and we know the Clemson has a good defense. Clemson

575
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 4: is an't played quite as good as we thought so far.

576
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 4: But Syracuse, their defense played way better than we thought.

577
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 4: What Syracuse is obviously jumping way up in competition, you know,

578
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 4: I mean circumstances have helped them. Also, somewhat soft opening

579
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 4: slate has also helped them as well.

580
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 3: And again you got to jump in competition.

581
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 4: Now, Clemson has been getting way closer to full strength

582
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,880
Speaker 4: on defense, you know, with with especially with the defensive

583
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 4: interior guys coming back, the guy Breeze had come back

584
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 4: and Xavier Thomas and like stuff like that, whereas you know,

585
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 4: they hadn't had any continuity with that before. But obviously

586
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 4: their front seven coming into the year, we projected it

587
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 4: as the most talented front seven in the nation. So

588
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:39,399
Speaker 4: they're gonna keep you know, getting better better. The defense

589
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 4: has played better, including the secondary, which did not quit

590
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 4: itself well earlier in the season. As far as the

591
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 4: total goes, my system total is fifty four and a half.

592
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 4: It's four and a half points or whatever above the

593
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 4: maybe maybe a couple more.

594
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 3: Above the Las Vegas total.

595
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 4: But this game may turn into more of like the

596
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 4: chess match, feeling each other out kind of a thing,

597
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 4: and Clemson's offense has gotten a bit better as well.

598
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 4: I'm I'm not touching this game. I just like, I

599
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:09,719
Speaker 4: feel like on both sides, it's, like I said, too

600
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 4: hot to handle. The Alabama Mississippi State game.

601
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 1: That's Bama by twenty one, number six Alabama twenty one

602
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,360
Speaker 1: point favorites against some twenty four Mississippi State.

603
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 2: Sixty and a half is a total in that game.

604
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, the my system definitely leans heavily towards the over.

605
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 4: Has an over over total adjusted total in that game

606
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,479
Speaker 4: of seventy two and a half. The side I was

607
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 4: tentatively leaning towards Missippi State earlier in the week, where

608
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 4: you know, it made my final cut list like twenty.

609
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 3: Five or whatever.

610
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 4: It's I couldn't quite get there in part, like there

611
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 4: was and and this is way bigger than betting college football.

612
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 4: Missippi State. Missippi State got some very unfortunate news today. Yeah,

613
00:28:57,880 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 4: oh is that public?

614
00:28:59,040 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 3: I actually didn't.

615
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 2: I did see. I did just see it right before

616
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 2: we started.

617
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 4: Okay, yeah, okay, good, Yeah, like at least that we

618
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 4: can talk about it.

619
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 3: But like, yeah, very very very unfortunate news.

620
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 4: And it like it's hard because like you have the

621
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 4: mindset on the Alabama team of like coming off of

622
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 4: you know, sustaining their first loss last week. Missipi State

623
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 4: now is dealing with something far bigger than football. It's

624
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 4: hard for me to get my finger on on where

625
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 4: both those teams are gonna be come Saturday. So even

626
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 4: though like I would lean Missipi State because I feel

627
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 4: like the twenty one is inflated, I can't get there

628
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 4: for those reasons. Like I said that over is probably

629
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 4: where i'd lean, Missippi State's run defense can absolutely be had.

630
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 4: I do think missus B State is gonna certainly they're

631
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 4: they're gonna fare much better against Bryce Young in terms

632
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 4: of the stat line, in terms of the efficiency and

633
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 4: explosion than Tennessee did. Maybe not on the scoreboard, but

634
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 4: like just you know, pass defense against pass offense, they're

635
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:02,239
Speaker 4: gonna or better. Missip States past defense as good, but

636
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 4: you can run on Missippy State.

637
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 3: You can run on them all day.

638
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 4: So so Jami or Gibbs is gonna have a big game,

639
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 4: I would for me, this would be more of a

640
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 4: prop game. I'd want to play the under on Young

641
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 4: and the receivers for Alabama. I want to play the

642
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 4: over on on Jremieer Gibbs, you know, and on the

643
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 4: on the rushing total, whatever. And Missippi State they need

644
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 4: to they absolutely need to play better against Alabama then

645
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 4: they have the last two times out because the two

646
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 4: times that Leech has played them, Alabama's mopped the floor

647
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 4: with them. Are what Alabama team you're gonna get here.

648
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 4: They're gonna be locked in, They're gonna be engaged or not.

649
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 4: You'd expect an inspired effort from Missippi State in lieu

650
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 4: of all these circumstances, but we don't know. It's just

651
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 4: something that's outside my purview. So I gotta stay away

652
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 4: from this one.

653
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 1: Hard to imagine Bama looking you know, they didn't look

654
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 1: bad last week, but they loss, but uh, you know,

655
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 1: losing or losing and looking bad two weeks in a row.

656
00:30:56,440 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 3: In the penalties and the blown coverages and like, yeah.

657
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 1: They are dead last in college football one hundred and

658
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 1: thirty one out of one hundred and thirty one in

659
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 1: penalties per game.

660
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 2: Really, yeah, they're dead last.

661
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 3: I didn't know it was quite that well. I knew

662
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 3: that they remember.

663
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 1: They had were seventeen or it was like an Alabama

664
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 1: record against Texas, So yeah, uh, and then last week

665
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 1: they had sixteen. Like, this is not what Alabama usually does.

666
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 3: They're yeah, they're.

667
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 4: Very undisciplined and the there's been there's been wonkier decisions

668
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 4: with the depth chart this year at Alabama than any

669
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 4: year I can remember under Saban. And it's not far

670
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 4: be it for me to say that Saban's wrong and

671
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 4: I'm right, But like, you know, like this stuff like

672
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 4: Eli Rix, for instance, he was a shutdown cover corner

673
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 4: at at LSU, prototypical NFL kid, you know, in terms

674
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 4: of the frame and everything like that.

675
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 3: He can't get on the field.

676
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 4: At Alabama, Jermaine Burton was there was their enormous acquisition

677
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 4: on you know, I mean in the receiving corps outside

678
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 4: of Dreamier gives. He has not been targeted nearly as

679
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 4: much or been as effectives as people thought Harrold.

680
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 3: That's sort of outside of their you know thing whatever.

681
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 4: But like Hero hadn't been a well but like because

682
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 4: of injury, but there's been weird j Cory Brooks would

683
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 4: be the other one I bring up.

684
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 3: For Jacory Brooks expect to be either the second or

685
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 3: the third receiver.

686
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 4: And for most of the season he was on the bench,

687
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 4: but then there's random games where he'll pop off, Like

688
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 4: it's just I don't know what's going on there this season.

689
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 4: I don't trust Alabama anymore. And like I said, this

690
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 4: is a lot of points. I was leaning towards Missippi State,

691
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 4: but because the circumstances, I just need to stay away

692
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 4: from this one.

693
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 2: Yeah.

694
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 1: I just went and looked in sixty six penalties against Alabama,

695
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: and I think the Utah State is sixty five. I

696
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:47,080
Speaker 1: believe UMass has sixty. I mean, this is these are

697
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 1: the teams great company. Yeah, these are the teams that

698
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 1: we're in company with here. Yeah, those are the only

699
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 1: three teams with sixty and Alabama has the most, I

700
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 1: guess in per game they're one twenty eight out of

701
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 1: one thirty one. But in terms of volume, they have

702
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 1: the most penalties in college football this year, which is

703
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 1: just crazy to think of number eight TCU three and

704
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 1: a half point home favors against them, seventeen Kansas State

705
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 1: total is fifty four in that one thor what do

706
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 1: you think?

707
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, my lean would be towards TCU.

708
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 4: I don't know if I can get all the way

709
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 4: there on pulling the trigger, but I might I camp

710
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 4: out on Kansas State in this game. Kansas State, their

711
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 4: ancillary defensive numbers are awesome, Like you know, you just

712
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 4: go up and down the board, whether it's just the

713
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 4: regular counting SATs, whether it's advanced stats whatever. But they

714
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 4: have not played very many good offenses so far, and

715
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 4: Oklahoma they didn't like it wasn't like they you know,

716
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 4: knuke the scoreboard, but in terms of the trunk plays

717
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 4: that they were getting, in terms of the yards per

718
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 4: play stuff like that, that offense, which is not as

719
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 4: good as the one that kan say, can be facing

720
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 4: on Saturday, it acquitted itself well enough that you have

721
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 4: to wonder, how is TCU going to do against Kansas State.

722
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 3: You can't just be like, oh, you know, Kansasit it's a.

723
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 4: Top twenty defense, because you know, YadA YadA, you have

724
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 4: to bake in the strength to schedule. TCU has been

725
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 4: able to score on everybody, They've been able to generate

726
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 4: explosive plays on everybody, and they're obviously still playing for

727
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 4: an enormous goal here, you know, still being undefeated whatever.

728
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,240
Speaker 4: They were able to pull that one out against Oklahoma

729
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 4: State late, maybe in part because Spencer Sanders was compromise,

730
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 4: but for me.

731
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 3: That was the down performance for TCU. That and they won.

732
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 4: And but you know the coaching staff and you know

733
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 4: it's not gonna be They're not gonna come and disengage,

734
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 4: you know, or like, you know whatever. In the same

735
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 4: way as last week. I would expect a more locked

736
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 4: in TCU. I don't know that that kansasitate matches up

737
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 4: terribly well, although duce Von is gonna get his for sure,

738
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 4: But it's just like outside of that, how can Kansas

739
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 4: State generate offense? And the thing that bought TCU defense.

740
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 4: It ain't the best in the world, but they brought

741
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:58,879
Speaker 4: back nine or ten starters. They're all week, They're they

742
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 4: have seen all the film a Use Vaughan and the

743
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 4: culture duze Von, Duzvon duz Von. The TCU defenders are

744
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,319
Speaker 4: dreaming of duz Von. At this point, they will know

745
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 4: every wherever duz Von is in the four Mason No, no, yeah,

746
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,839
Speaker 4: they will know. It's not to say the duz Von

747
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:17,400
Speaker 4: can't can't you know, go ballistic or whatever, but unless

748
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,280
Speaker 4: he does, I would really like TCU's chances.

749
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 3: And that's the one guy you got to bottle up.

750
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 3: I like TCU in this game.

751
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 2: I'm with you on that one.

752
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 1: A number ten Oregon six point home favorites against number

753
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 1: nine Ucla sixty nine and a half is a total

754
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 1: on this one, So a high scoring Pac twelve game.

755
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:39,600
Speaker 1: Who would have thought, for what do you like between

756
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 1: Oregon and UCLA?

757
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:40,799
Speaker 2: Here?

758
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:43,840
Speaker 4: I would lean Ucla. It seems like the market is

759
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,320
Speaker 4: actually leaning towards Oregon. I saw a bunch of books

760
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 4: that that line actually talk a of to six and

761
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:51,760
Speaker 4: a half today, But for me it would be Ucla.

762
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:55,760
Speaker 4: My number toggled up a little bit with it Oregon

763
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 4: minus five point seven.

764
00:35:57,040 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 3: So my system does my system? Does you know lean Ucla?

765
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 4: I probably lean a little bit harder, but I haven't

766
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:04,239
Speaker 4: bought a ticket on that game, and I'm not sure

767
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 4: that you know, like we'll we'll see u c. L

768
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:12,720
Speaker 4: A has overcome what the market expected of it multiple

769
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 4: times already this season Washington and Utah they won. They

770
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:18,759
Speaker 4: both won both those games, as you know, all right,

771
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 4: upsets whatever. This line to me seemed a little bit

772
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 4: uh inflated towards towards the Oregon side. You would expect

773
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,360
Speaker 4: UCLA will still be able to run the ball a

774
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 4: bit on Oregon, and well, this game that the outcome

775
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 4: of it's probably gonna come down to a lot of

776
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 4: what can DTR do through the air. But with where

777
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 4: the points are in this one, the six, you know,

778
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:44,680
Speaker 4: closing in on seven potentially, I'm not betting it now

779
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 4: unless that line gets up to seven or seven and

780
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:50,399
Speaker 4: a half, and then then I'm gonna, you know, uh,

781
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 4: buy ticket on on U C l A. But like

782
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 4: right now, I it's it's it's it's tough because of

783
00:36:57,440 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 4: what I see the market doing with Oregon. It's another

784
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 4: one of those where you wonder, like, what are they

785
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:03,279
Speaker 4: seeing that I'm not good because I felt like the

786
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 4: line was a bit inflated towards.

787
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 3: That side already.

788
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 2: How about the first road test for Quinn yours number twenty,

789
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 2: Texas six and a half point road favorites at number eleven,

790
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 2: Oklahoma state sixty one is the total? Here?

791
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 1: Tell me why my Longhorns win this one going away

792
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 1: or I'm sure that's what you have right.

793
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:28,719
Speaker 4: Well, certainly, if Spencer Sanders doesn't play this one, you know,

794
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 4: it's another game where it all comes down to the

795
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:31,720
Speaker 4: health of one player.

796
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:34,359
Speaker 3: Because if Spencer Sanders is playing.

797
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 2: He's been incredible, He really has been He.

798
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 4: Yes, and the only time is play take down over

799
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,279
Speaker 4: these last couple of weeks because he has this this

800
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,120
Speaker 4: shoulder issue that he's been playing through that Oklahoma State

801
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,200
Speaker 4: is going out of their way to tell us nothing

802
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 4: about you know, yeah, both as you know coming up here,

803
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:51,960
Speaker 4: but also they didn't tell us anything about that either.

804
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 4: In fact, Mike Dundee was very upset at I think

805
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 4: it was was it Molly McGrath last week because she

806
00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 4: had ascertained that Spencer Sanders had not practice that the

807
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:03,840
Speaker 4: week leading into that game, and then Molly McGrath asked

808
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 4: Mike Gundhy about it before the game, and then Mike

809
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:08,759
Speaker 4: Gundy afterwards was furious because then they reported on air

810
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 4: that Spencer Sanders had in practice, And it's like, Mike,

811
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:14,320
Speaker 4: your job is to coach. Her job is to ask questions.

812
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 4: If you didn't like what you said, that's on you, pal,

813
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:20,360
Speaker 4: it ain't on her. Mike Gundhy, though, is one of

814
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 4: the more prolific obfuscators of truth as far as the media.

815
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 1: Goes with with the he's a man, he's fifty, he's

816
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:28,239
Speaker 1: a man.

817
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,320
Speaker 3: He's not gonna tell us anything about his injured players.

818
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 1: He's not forty anymore. He that is it is over

819
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 1: a decade. I think he's fifty one and fifty two now,

820
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 1: so that I'm a man, I'm forty. Uh. Stuff was

821
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 1: from over a decade ago and he's been doing that

822
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 1: that stuff for a long time.

823
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, But like the information ain't getting out there about

824
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,880
Speaker 4: about this, Like they are so tight left and again

825
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,240
Speaker 4: having to lie to the media about the injury stuff

826
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 4: unless Molly McGrath can do it.

827
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:55,720
Speaker 3: Got youa on him this week.

828
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 4: Spencer Sanders has been extremely limited and or out of

829
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 4: practice and the same way. But again, he played last time.

830
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:05,720
Speaker 4: You would almost think that that he would be getting

831
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 4: healthier at this point, especially after there was some more

832
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 4: doubt of Oklahoma State that he did not aggravate anything

833
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 4: further after the last game. In fact, they were sort

834
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 4: of affording to people that he was feeling solid after

835
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 4: the last game. But then there was also the reports

836
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:21,320
Speaker 4: on the other side of people being like, well, Spencer

837
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 4: Standers might not play. So it's you know, again, you

838
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 4: have a dearth of information, so there's just a bunch

839
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:30,280
Speaker 4: of speculation and people like you know, grabbing one random

840
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:33,879
Speaker 4: thing and then running with it and extrapolating I don't

841
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 4: know I don't know.

842
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 3: I haven't gotten any outside information about this.

843
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:40,560
Speaker 4: Everybody is asking, like in all the threads I'm in,

844
00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 4: does anyone have an idea about Spencer Shander?

845
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 3: Does anyone have an ideabout spent?

846
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,359
Speaker 4: No one does, so Oklahoma State has succeeded in keeping

847
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 4: this one close to the best. If Spencer Sanders starts,

848
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:52,839
Speaker 4: this line is way too high. It's just absolutely way

849
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:56,960
Speaker 4: too high. If he does not start, it's not then

850
00:39:57,080 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 4: you know, you go at Texas. Earlier in the week,

851
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 4: I it was very confident that Spencer Sanders would start

852
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 4: because of the things that I had heard. Now there's

853
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 4: some of these reports seem more pessimistic about it. But

854
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 4: again I don't know if that's just Mike Gundy playing

855
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:14,880
Speaker 4: games with the media and his opponent or not. But

856
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:18,319
Speaker 4: it's certainly gotten into my head and maybe just a

857
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 4: little bit more cautious towards this one. Now later in

858
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 4: the week then earlier. I would love to have a

859
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 4: definitive report on Sander's status, but we ain't gonna get

860
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 4: that before the game. If anyone out there has a

861
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 4: friend on either one of the sides, certainly see me

862
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 4: with the information. But also that would inform the entire handicap.

863
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 4: It's Spencer Sanders availability. That's what it is at.

864
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:42,280
Speaker 2: Thor Ku on the slide.

865
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 3: Those teams that they're open.

866
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:46,799
Speaker 2: Right exactly get after him there.

867
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 1: All right, Well that's all the big five games here,

868
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 1: thor So that just I'm gonna hand it off to you.

869
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 1: Give me a game or two that you are liking

870
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 1: this week that maybe we should be looking to maybe

871
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 1: throw a unit on her or a couple I'll go.

872
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 4: I'll go with that the LSU Mississippi State, the MISSIPI

873
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 4: LSU Mississippi game, which I don't believe we talked about

874
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:11,239
Speaker 4: in this hour. We talked about it last hour. But

875
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:13,399
Speaker 4: I go with that one because it's a big ish

876
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:15,680
Speaker 4: game for sure, or a big game you can take

877
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 4: the issue out of it if you like. And it's

878
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 4: also a game where I have not just one lean

879
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 4: two leans on it.

880
00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 3: There's a side I like and a total I like.

881
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 4: I definitely the stronger lean or the stronger play for

882
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 4: me is the under of that game that the total

883
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 4: of the vegas put out is way too high and

884
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 4: like a head scratching high.

885
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 3: You know.

886
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:42,399
Speaker 4: Like, So it's yeah, and two teams that are gonna

887
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 4: lean even further into that Missippi state or keep saying

888
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:49,840
Speaker 4: state after I say Mississippi, but Mississippi Ole miss runs

889
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 4: over sixty five percent of their offensive snaps already, and

890
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 4: that's the part of the LSU defense. If you had

891
00:41:57,320 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 4: your brothers that you would attack, it would be the

892
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:03,280
Speaker 4: you would avoid their pass defense. So, like, I expect

893
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:06,600
Speaker 4: Mississippi to lean even more into their run game. And

894
00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 4: then that's LSU's thing is running, especially because they're funneling

895
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 4: all the usage into Jayden Daniels. Jayden Daniels has ninety

896
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 4: rushing attempts, next highest guy in LSUS forty nine, So like,

897
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 4: you know, I mean, like you get the passing and

898
00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:22,279
Speaker 4: the running, but it's mostly the run game with them.

899
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 3: Whatever.

900
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 4: Again, I expect both of them to lean into it.

901
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:29,320
Speaker 4: Missib has a pretty solid pass defense, so you're gonna

902
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 4: get the running clock and you know you're gonna have

903
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 4: that probably less plays, probably less possessions, and you know

904
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 4: what you would extrapolate from the tempo, especially with Mississippi

905
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 4: being top five in tempo in the nation. But the

906
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:47,839
Speaker 4: other part of it is once they get over the

907
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 4: opponent's forty yard line. Both these offenses have struggled to

908
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 4: the in terms of converting opportunities into points in terms

909
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:58,319
Speaker 4: of what you would have projected based on the yards

910
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 4: that they've gained in advance of that. And both these

911
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:07,319
Speaker 4: defenses are really good at suppressing points per opportunity from

912
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 4: the opponent, you know, once they get into the scoring

913
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:13,800
Speaker 4: opportunities whatever. So those things line up really well. And

914
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 4: again you're gonna have the constantly running clock. There's also

915
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 4: the thing of Missib's offense has not been as good,

916
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 4: quite as good as we thought it would be this year.

917
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 3: Their defense has been better, but they've often has been

918
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 3: a little bit down.

919
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:26,879
Speaker 4: Not because of the run game, which they've heavily leaned

920
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 4: into that has been as advertised. The passing game is

921
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 4: not nearly as good as it was when Matt Coraw

922
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 4: is running around and Elijah Moore and Gabola and all

923
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,359
Speaker 4: that sort of stuff. Jackson Dart to this point has

924
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 4: been a moderate disappointment. I don't want to say full

925
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 4: fledged disappointment, because like he's got a couple of years,

926
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 4: you know, left, and he's got several games this year

927
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 4: so to try to get it back on track. But

928
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 4: the singular like really good games he's had has been

929
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 4: against terrible opponents, and when they've stepped up in competition,

930
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 4: he hasn't looked nearly as good. The last three games

931
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 4: they played SEC opponents, but they have any been that

932
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 4: great ones like over you know, Vandy, Auburn, Kentucky. Jackson

933
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 4: Dart threw four interceptions in those games, and if you

934
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 4: toss out the Vanderbilt one, you just look at the

935
00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:14,319
Speaker 4: other two against Kentucky and Auburn. He averaged something like

936
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 4: one hundred and sixty five or one hundred and seventy

937
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:20,840
Speaker 4: passing yards in those two games on only fifty percent completions,

938
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:24,439
Speaker 4: despite the interceptions being more than the touchdowns. I don't

939
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:27,440
Speaker 4: really trust him in a situation against a good pass defense.

940
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 4: And ole Miss's receiving cords a little bit down as well,

941
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:32,720
Speaker 4: in part because the injuries that they've had, moving bodies

942
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:34,959
Speaker 4: and new kids that they had on the roster, et cetera,

943
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:38,759
Speaker 4: brought in from the transfer portal again running clock. Don't

944
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 4: expect the offenses to do well in scoring position. Don't

945
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 4: trust the ole Miss offense as much as they do

946
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 4: their defense, which really weird to say, but it is

947
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 4: what it is.

948
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take the under in this one. I like

949
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 3: that a lot.

950
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:53,839
Speaker 4: And as far as the side goes, the market has

951
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 4: moved this one from where Mississippi was a short under.

952
00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:59,680
Speaker 4: I'm sorry Missippi was a short favorite. The market has

953
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 4: moved thing now to where LSU is the small favorite.

954
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:06,880
Speaker 4: I agree with that line movement. I would lean LSU

955
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:08,759
Speaker 4: as well. LSU is going to be a play for me.

956
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:13,879
Speaker 4: I trust LSU more. Ole miss hasn't played anybody this year,

957
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 4: and despite that, they've struggled in like half of their games.

958
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:20,319
Speaker 4: So some of these games against really poor competition. This

959
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 4: is this is a step up in competition for them.

960
00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:23,920
Speaker 4: The best team they played so far, as you know,

961
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 4: I suppose Kentucky, no other opponent on the on their

962
00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:30,440
Speaker 4: schedule would would continue you to this point. Whereas LSU

963
00:45:31,040 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 4: they I believe they played a top twenty strength to

964
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:36,319
Speaker 4: schedule to get here, right, and that started right away

965
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 4: with Florida State and then you know and some of

966
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:43,279
Speaker 4: the you know against Tennessee. Uh, they got smacked around,

967
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 4: but we were talking about that before. Part of that

968
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:47,800
Speaker 4: was circumstantial where they had fumbled the opening kickoff and

969
00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:50,040
Speaker 4: then things got away from them really quickly. But I

970
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 4: trust this LSU team a lot more. They're at home,

971
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:55,920
Speaker 4: they have faced the much harder competition, so they know

972
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:57,880
Speaker 4: what it's going to be like to face a roster

973
00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 4: of analogous talent. I backed down LSU last week against Florida,

974
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:05,919
Speaker 4: won that one easy as a short underdog. I'm gonna

975
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:07,799
Speaker 4: lay the very small amount of points that it's now

976
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 4: switched to with LSU.

977
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 3: I like the LSU side.

978
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:12,759
Speaker 1: All right, well, look that is gonna wrap it up

979
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 1: for us. Good luck in week eight for all of

980
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:17,799
Speaker 1: you and all of your bets. Remember you can follow

981
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 1: us on the Twitter at Bogman Sports, at Bogmin Sports

982
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:24,160
Speaker 1: for myself, at thor Ku for Thor And we also

983
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:27,440
Speaker 1: do a stages right before we record this every single

984
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,320
Speaker 1: Wednesday at five pm Eastern, we jump on the Betting

985
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 1: Pro Stages.

986
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:31,880
Speaker 2: It is free.

987
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 1: All you gotta do is sign up, jump on there

988
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 1: and you can ask us about any of the games

989
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 1: you want, any of the plays you want confirmation, We

990
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 1: want to talk through a line any bet. We would

991
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 1: love to talk to you guys there, so please check

992
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 1: that out if you would. And Thor obviously you got

993
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 1: more shows coming up this week.

994
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 2: Let's hear him. What do you got?

995
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 3: Yeah?

996
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 4: On Saturday, we got the College Football Game Day Live

997
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 4: with me and Mike Farrell. Were for ninety minutes. We

998
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:57,759
Speaker 4: go through as many college football games as we can

999
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 4: get to on the card. We also take audience questions.

1000
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:03,640
Speaker 4: Please join that one live. It starts at ten am

1001
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 4: Eastern and goes until eleven thirty am Eastern, so it

1002
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 4: ends thirty minutes before the kickoffs. But we will give you,

1003
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:14,360
Speaker 4: guys value on that, I promise you, sides totals, prop bets.

1004
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:17,319
Speaker 4: We go through everything and hit all the major games

1005
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 4: on the card, and then on Sundays, me and Thomas

1006
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 4: sit down after we look at the opening numbers, go

1007
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:25,239
Speaker 4: through where there could be value, you know, I run

1008
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 4: my numbers earlier on Sunday for the coming week where

1009
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:29,880
Speaker 4: there potential.

1010
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 3: Early week plays you know that are out there.

1011
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 4: And then also injury news that are affecting some of

1012
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 4: the other lines, stuff like that early week angle, stuff

1013
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 4: like that.

1014
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 3: So check that one out as well.

1015
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:41,520
Speaker 1: Check those out. Good luck in your week eight bets,

1016
00:47:41,560 --> 00:47:43,800
Speaker 1: and we'll see y'all next week. Take it easy, everybody,